tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/immigration-policy-6888/articlesImmigration policy – The Conversation2024-02-29T21:10:19Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2213862024-02-29T21:10:19Z2024-02-29T21:10:19ZHow open source tech can make Canada’s immigration system fairer<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576272/original/file-20240216-18-bub7fp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=33%2C58%2C5573%2C3673&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Even modest contributions to open source technology can result in substantial value and high societal return on investments.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Federal immigration minister Marc Miller recently announced the government is implementing a <a href="https://theconversation.com/international-students-cap-falsely-blames-them-for-canadas-housing-and-health-care-woes-221859">two-year cap</a> on the number of international students admitted into Canada. </p>
<p>This comes amid the government’s broader changes to the immigration system to streamline the types of people who can settle in Canada. Last year, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada introduced <a href="https://www.canadavisa.com/eecategories.html">category-based draws</a> for permanent residence applicants. The new requirements are designed to prioritize applications from health-care and STEM professionals, and other in-demand workers.</p>
<p>While Canada has plans to welcome <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/notices/supplementary-immigration-levels-2024-2026.html">485,000 permanent residents this year</a>, these recent policy shifts signal the government wants to restrict the type of people who can come here. </p>
<p>However, does Canada’s immigration system unfairly exclude the people who could make meaningful contributions to our society and economy? </p>
<h2>Immigration policies favour the rich</h2>
<p>Governments, businesses and universities might be tempted to roll out the red carpet for richer immigrants who bring their wealth to Canada and benefit the country by simply spending their money here. However, policy should be focused on attracting smart and innovative people, regardless of their net worth, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-5890.1999.tb00001.x">as they are far more valuable in the long term</a>. </p>
<p>Research shows that skilled workers <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2015.04.002">boost the productivity of their local peers</a>. It is also well known that immigrants play an important role in creating value for firms and can also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1287/orsc.2019.1331">attract foreign companies</a> to a country. </p>
<p>Research from the United States indicated that more than <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=990152">25 per cent of tech companies established between 1995 and 2005</a> had an immigrant as a key founder. Similarly in Canada, semi-skilled and high-skilled immigration have a <a href="https://doi.org/10.54609/reaser.v26i2.423">positive effect on our economic growth</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576270/original/file-20240216-20-vytbjr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman works on a laptop holding a book in her hand." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576270/original/file-20240216-20-vytbjr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576270/original/file-20240216-20-vytbjr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576270/original/file-20240216-20-vytbjr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576270/original/file-20240216-20-vytbjr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576270/original/file-20240216-20-vytbjr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576270/original/file-20240216-20-vytbjr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576270/original/file-20240216-20-vytbjr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Despite Canada’s points-based system that ranks potential immigrants, smart, capable people can easily fall through the cracks if they don’t meet financial, employment or formal educational requirements.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
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<p>Canada has a number of immigration streams. Perhaps the most straightforward is <a href="https://ircc.canada.ca/english/helpcentre/answer.asp?qnum=653&top=6">Canada’s investor visa</a>, which allows foreign entrepreneurs to gain permanent residency and, eventually, citizenship. Immigration programs <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/immigrate-canada/express-entry/documents/proof-funds.html">like Express Entry</a> require applicants to demonstrate they have a minimum amount of money. Others like the <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/immigrate-canada/express-entry/eligibility/federal-skilled-workers/six-selection-factors-federal-skilled-workers.html">skilled worker program</a> favor those who have attained certain levels of higher education.</p>
<p>This means that current immigration policy can often favor the rich because it is easier to assess a person’s bank statements than it is to assess their talents or intelligence. </p>
<p>Despite <a href="https://ircc.canada.ca/english/immigrate/skilled/crs-tool.asp">Canada’s points-based system that ranks potential immigrants</a>, smart, capable people can easily fall through the cracks if they don’t meet financial, employment or formal educational requirements. These are people who lack the money and educational certificates to earn a lot of immigration points.</p>
<p>Yet some of them may have already created millions of dollars of value with their contributions to open source (OS) technology that you and I use every day.</p>
<h2>Open source to the rescue</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.jims.e-migration.ro/Vol17_No2_2023/JIMS_Vol17_No2_2023_pp_80_118_QIAN.pdf">A new study</a> by my colleague Jun-Yu Qian from Western University and I shows that there is another way to find the value of contributions of people wishing to come to Canada. Immigrants could be assessed based on their contributions to open source development.</p>
<p><a href="https://itsfoss.com/what-is-foss/">Free and open source software</a> (FOSS) refers to programs that can be used, studied, copied, modified and redistributed with few or no restrictions. The core idea of open source development is that if you make an improvement in software or hardware, you must share it back with the community. The result is often rapid churn in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1109/MRA.2016.2646748">innovation</a> in a <a href="https://www.appropedia.org/Create,_Share,_and_Save_Money_Using_Open-Source_Projects">wide array of areas</a>.</p>
<p>Open source tech developed by people from all over the world has enormous impact on the economy. Today, open source software is in <a href="https://www.zdnet.com/article/supercomputers-all-linux-all-the-time/">supercomputers</a>, <a href="https://www.rackspace.com/en-gb/blog/realising-the-value-of-cloud-computing-with-linux">90 per cent of cloud servers</a>, <a href="https://www.idc.com/promo/smartphone-market-share">82 per cent of smartphones</a> and <a href="https://spectrum.ieee.org/open-source-ai">most artificial intelligence</a>. </p>
<p>More than 90 per cent of Fortune 500 companies <a href="https://fortune.com/2013/05/06/how-linux-conquered-the-fortune-500/">use the open-source software</a>. To put it plainly, if you use the internet, you use open source technology every day. </p>
<p>On the hardware side, there are now <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mechatronics.2013.06.002">millions of free designs</a> that consumers can download and <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/technologies5010007">3D print</a> or <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ohx.2020.e00139">digitally manufacture</a> to save money compared to conventionally manufactured products. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576271/original/file-20240216-20-olb4j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A sign saying Canada arrivals in english and french" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576271/original/file-20240216-20-olb4j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576271/original/file-20240216-20-olb4j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576271/original/file-20240216-20-olb4j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576271/original/file-20240216-20-olb4j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576271/original/file-20240216-20-olb4j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576271/original/file-20240216-20-olb4j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576271/original/file-20240216-20-olb4j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Canada has a number of immigration streams, but immigration policy often favours those who are wealthy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
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<p>In our paper, we calculated the value on an individual open source project based on how many times it was downloaded and multiplied that by what the substituted cost is on the open market. Similarly, we calculated the fraction of the total value an individual contributor made to a massive collaboration project, like <a href="https://www.linux.org/">Linux</a>, <a href="https://www.android.com/intl/en_ca/">Android</a>, <a href="https://www.arduino.cc/">Arduino</a> or <a href="https://theecologist.org/2010/jul/20/will-reprap-machine-bring-new-manufacturing-and-end-consumerism">RepRap</a>.</p>
<p>We found that even modest contributions to open source technology can result in substantial value and high societal return on investments. These values could be used to determine the contribution an individual has made to open source tech development when assessing their ability to live in and support themselves in Canada.</p>
<h2>Investing in immigrants</h2>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/1973162">Studies have shown</a> how immigrants are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9914.2007.00389.x">consistently</a> providing <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2138164">positive return on investment</a> for their adoptive countries. Simply put: immigrants bring more economic value than they cost. </p>
<p>In the study, we found the median contributor to <a href="https://www.openoffice.org/">Open Office</a> (a free office suite that can replace Microsoft’s offerings) made only a tiny contribution to the code (0.00716 per cent) but provided significant financial savings.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.jims.e-migration.ro/Vol17_No2_2023/JIMS_Vol17_No2_2023_pp_80_118_QIAN.pdf">mechanisms we introduced</a> could serve as tools to utilize contributions by potential immigrants. Making this kind of change to immigration policy would go some way to benefiting smart people willing to work hard and make open source contributions, and the countries lucky enough to attract them.</p>
<p>With the help of the open source development, countries like Canada can widen the net and attract highly innovative people to come and live here, even if they don’t have the formal qualifications.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221386/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joshua M. Pearce does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Valuing open source development is a way to attract talented people that are major drivers to economic growth.Joshua M. Pearce, John M. Thompson Chair in Information Technology and Innovation and Professor, Western UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2235202024-02-29T13:42:41Z2024-02-29T13:42:41ZThis is Texas hold ‘em – why Texas is fighting the US government to secure its border with Mexico<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578702/original/file-20240228-28-s1zpjo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Texas National Guard troops try to untangle a migrant caught in razor wire along the Texas-Mexico border on Jan. 31, 2024. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/texas-national-guard-troops-try-to-untangle-an-immigrant-news-photo/1976393392?adppopup=true">John Moore/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are both traveling to Texas border towns on Feb. 29, 2024, and are <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/02/26/biden-trump-border-immigration/">expected to fault each other</a> for chaos in border enforcement and the <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/02/15/migrant-encounters-at-the-us-mexico-border-hit-a-record-high-at-the-end-of-2023/">high number of undocumented migrant crossings</a>.</p>
<p>Their dueling visits follow a failed Senate proposal to tighten border security and make it tougher for people to get asylum in the U.S. They also coincide with Americans’ rising <a href="https://www.axios.com/2024/02/27/immigration-americans-top-problem-us-poll-election">concern about immigration</a>.</p>
<p>Texas Governor Greg Abbott has been battling with the Biden administration since 2021 over the state’s ability to secure its border with Mexico. Under Abbott’s leadership, <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/republicans-governors-national-guard-and-the-texas-border-what-to-know-/7467727.html">Texas has sent Texas National Guard</a> troops and state troopers to its 1,254-mile-long border with Mexico. Texas is the only border state that has built its own wall, partially dividing itself from Mexico. Texas has also constructed <a href="https://nypost.com/2024/02/09/news/texas-on-track-to-build-more-border-wall-in-state-than-trump-gov-abbotts-says/">more than 100 miles</a> of other barriers along the border.</p>
<p>I <a href="https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/mark-p-jones">am a scholar of</a> Texas politics and government at Rice University’s Baker Institute. Texas’ attempts to control its border with Mexico and intervene on immigration issues – historically both the responsibility of the federal government – derive in part from the fact that many Texans believe that their Lone Star State is unique. </p>
<p>Texas, for starters, is the largest U.S. state among the lower 48, geographically speaking, and the second-most populous after California. It has a distinct state culture and the history of being an independent republic. </p>
<p>Today, Texas is the most powerful and influential red state pushing back against the Biden administration on many policy issues. It is also home to a small but growing political movement advocating for Texas to secede from the U.S. and become an independent country.</p>
<p>There is a great deal of truth to the popular saying that everything is bigger in Texas.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578708/original/file-20240228-28-ctnbfw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man is seen from the side, holding both an American flag and a Texas flag, which is red and blue with one white star." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578708/original/file-20240228-28-ctnbfw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578708/original/file-20240228-28-ctnbfw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578708/original/file-20240228-28-ctnbfw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578708/original/file-20240228-28-ctnbfw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578708/original/file-20240228-28-ctnbfw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578708/original/file-20240228-28-ctnbfw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578708/original/file-20240228-28-ctnbfw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People protest Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s immigration and border policies in Eagle Pass, Texas, in February 2024.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/counter-protesters-wave-flags-across-the-street-from-local-news-photo/1978653675?adppopup=true">Michael Gonzalez/Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Border security battles</h2>
<p>Texas is now enmeshed in a series of skirmishes with the Biden administration over border security and immigration. Abbott, bolstered by the unanimous support of Texas Republicans who dominate the state legislature, and <a href="https://uh.edu/hobby/txprimary2024/">Republican voters</a>, has made Texas more involved in day-to-day border security and immigration enforcement than any state in recent history. </p>
<p>In December 2023, Abbott signed controversial new state legislation that makes it a state crime to cross the border without a visa. This legislation, which goes into effect in March 2024, also gives <a href="https://www.keranews.org/texas-news/2023-12-18/gov-abbott-signs-bill-that-makes-unauthorized-entry-a-state-crime">Texas authorities</a> the <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2024/02/15/texas-immigration-law-sb4-border-court-hearing/">right to deport undocumented migrants</a> – which is generally considered the federal government’s responsibility. </p>
<p>Abbott’s border security interventions are funded by a 2021 state initiative called <a href="https://gov.texas.gov/operationlonestar">Operation Lone Star</a>. During the program’s first two years, Texas spent <a href="https://www.governing.com/now/2-years-and-4b-later-what-we-know-about-operation-lone-star">US$4.4 billion</a> on a multifaceted strategy that includes, for example, sending Texas <a href="https://gov.texas.gov/news/post/governor-abbott-expands-border-security-operations-in-eagle-pass#:%7E:text=The%20Texas%20Military%20Department%20acquired,created%20by%20the%20Biden%20Administration.">National Guard troops</a> to the border. In some cases, these National Guard <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/4416126-texas-us-legal-standoff-eagle-pass-border/">troops have blocked U.S. Border Patrol agents</a> from patrolling the border. </p>
<p>Now, Texas is spending <a href="https://everytexan.org/2023/10/27/third-special-spending-updated-spending-limits-mean-more-options-for-lawmakers/">$5.1 billion</a> on trying to patrol the border from 2023 through 2025. </p>
<p>This doesn’t include the additional $1.5 billion Texas has allocated for expansion of its <a href="https://www.houstonchronicle.com/politics/texas/article/border-wall-deportation-bills-18480062.php">border wall</a> over the next few years. </p>
<p>Since 2022, Texas has sent more than 100,000 immigrants who arrive in Texas to <a href="https://gov.texas.gov/news/post/texas-transports-over-100000-migrants-to-sanctuary-cities">liberal cities like New York and Chicago</a>. </p>
<p>And in 2023, Texas constructed a <a href="https://apnews.com/article/texas-buoys-border-immigration-12bc8abddef1c9384b25222b92d0840b">buoy barrier in the middle of the Rio Grande</a>, although a federal appeals court ruled in December that Texas must <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/01/politics/federal-appeals-court-orders-texas-to-remove-controversial-border-buoys-from-rio-grande/index.html">remove those barriers</a> from the river. </p>
<p>The Biden administration has <a href="https://www.houstonchronicle.com/politics/texas/article/biden-lawsuit-border-law-18588009.php">challenged</a> virtually all of these actions in court.</p>
<p>The federal government argues that Texas’ border and immigration activity is unconstitutional, since only the federal government can enforce immigration law. The <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/4416126-texas-us-legal-standoff-eagle-pass-border/">federal government maintains</a> that the new Texas immigration law that allows state authorities to deport migrants also would interfere with the federal asylum process. </p>
<p>In response, Texas says that its border and immigration work is legal, in part because the federal government cannot adequately secure the border. Abbott and other Republicans characterize migrants crossing into Texas as an “invasion,” which they say gives Texas the right to defend itself, as <a href="https://gov.texas.gov/news/post/governor-abbott-issues-statement-on-texas-constitutional-right-to-self-defense">they say the U.S. Constitution allows</a>. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578723/original/file-20240228-24-kgno9h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A middle aged white man in a white shirt sits in a. wheelchair and shakes the hand of a soldier who wears a camo uniform, in a row of other people in camp." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578723/original/file-20240228-24-kgno9h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578723/original/file-20240228-24-kgno9h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578723/original/file-20240228-24-kgno9h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578723/original/file-20240228-24-kgno9h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578723/original/file-20240228-24-kgno9h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578723/original/file-20240228-24-kgno9h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578723/original/file-20240228-24-kgno9h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Texas Governor Greg Abbott tours the U.S.-Mexico border in Eagle Pass in May 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/texas-governor-greg-abbott-tours-the-us-mexico-border-at-news-photo/1240862283?adppopup=true">Allison Dinner/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>What’s unique about Texas</h2>
<p>Understanding Texas’ particular history and Texans’ sense of pride for their state helps to better understand the context behind this current conflict. </p>
<p>In Texas, you can’t travel far without seeing the Texas flag fluttering outside of houses and business storefronts. It is quite common to see people carrying Texas flag-themed koozies, or wearing Texas flag shirts and hats. </p>
<p>Texas is one of the only U.S. states that went directly from being an independent republic – from 1836 to 1845 – to getting statehood. More than <a href="https://www.tshaonline.org/texas-day-by-day/entry/220">nine out of 10 Texans</a> voted for Texas to become part of the U.S. in 1845. </p>
<p>Texas has also been led continuously by a Republican governor since 1992, when George W. Bush was first elected. No Democrat has won any statewide race in Texas since 1994. </p>
<p>Today, Texas’ executive branch – led by Abbott, Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick and Attorney General Ken Paxton – is the country’s most powerful and vocal opponent of the Biden administration. </p>
<h2>A push to secede</h2>
<p>While the Texas state government is challenging the federal government’s immigration and border powers, there has also been a <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2023/11/15/texas-secession-texit/">rise in support for</a> a political group called the <a href="https://tnm.me/">Texas Nationalist Movement</a>, which since 2005 has been advocating for Texas to secede from the U.S.</p>
<p>Texas’ Republican political leaders have not embraced this secession movement, often called “TEXIT.” Recently, Matt Rinaldi, the ultra-conservative chair of the Texas Republican Party, kept a Texas secession proposition <a href="https://www.tpr.org/government-politics/2023-12-28/texas-gop-rejects-ballot-question-asking-if-state-should-secede">off the Republican primary ballot</a>. </p>
<p>Abbott and other Texas Republican politicians agree with former conservative Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia, who <a href="https://www.politico.com/blogs/ben-smith/2010/02/scalia-no-to-secession-025119">wrote in a letter in 2006,</a> “If there was any constitutional issue resolved by the Civil War, it is that there is no right to secede.”</p>
<p>But these same Republicans still want Texas to have greater state autonomy from the federal government. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578703/original/file-20240228-22-c5eetx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="The words 'Greetings from Texas' are seen on a colorful illustration, with a large red star, blue bulls and smaller images of fruit and flowers." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578703/original/file-20240228-22-c5eetx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578703/original/file-20240228-22-c5eetx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578703/original/file-20240228-22-c5eetx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578703/original/file-20240228-22-c5eetx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578703/original/file-20240228-22-c5eetx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578703/original/file-20240228-22-c5eetx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578703/original/file-20240228-22-c5eetx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A vintage postcard from the 1950s offers greetings from Texas, often known as the Lone Star State.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/vintage-illustration-of-greetings-from-texas-the-lone-star-news-photo/583785842?adppopup=true">Found Image Holdings/Corbis via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Texas pride</h2>
<p>Abbott and other Texas Republicans continue to assert their right to secure the border and deport undocumented immigrants because they say the federal government is failing to do either effectively. </p>
<p>In addition, Republicans continue to use immigration and border security as a top issue to rally Republican and independent voters heading into the 2024 election. </p>
<p>And, while TEXIT is not going to happen, Texas Republicans will continue to vigorously promote Texas autonomy, appealing to their voters’ Texas pride. </p>
<p><em>This article was updated to reflect that Texas is one of the only states to have first been a republic.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223520/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark P Jones does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Texans’ belief in their state’s exceptionalism has helped fuel support for the Republican state government trying to take border security and immigration enforcement into its own hands.Mark P Jones, Joseph D. Jamail Chair in Latin American Studies & Baker Institute Political Science Fellow, Rice UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2230722024-02-13T13:21:23Z2024-02-13T13:21:23ZImmigration reform has always been tough, and rarely happens in election years - 4 things to know<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575094/original/file-20240212-24-rrmn75.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Migrants cross the border from Mexico into Texas on Feb. 6, 2024. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/migrants-cross-the-border-to-usa-through-gate-36-and-to-be-news-photo/1983631787?adppopup=true">Christian Torres/Anadolu via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Immigration is already a major polarizing issue in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Arrests for <a href="https://apnews.com/article/immigration-border-crossings-mexico-biden-18ac91ef502e0c5433f74de6cc629b32">illegal border crossings</a> from Mexico reached an all-time high in December 2023, and cities like New York and Chicago are struggling to provide housing and basic services for tens of thousands of <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2024/01/04/texas-migrants-new-york-bus-companies-lawsuit/#:%7E:text=As%20of%20Dec.,33%2C600%20migrants%20to%20New%20York.">migrants arriving from Texas</a>. </p>
<p>In early February 2024, a group of senators <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senate-unveils-118-billion-bipartisan-bill-tighten-border-security-aid-2024-02-04/">proposed new immigration legislation</a> that would have slowed the migrant influx at the border. The bill would have made it harder for migrants to both apply for and receive asylum, which is the legal right to stay in the U.S. because of fear of persecution if they return back home. <a href="https://apnews.com/article/congress-border-deal-rejected-lankford-immigration-045fdf42d42b26270ee1f5f73e8bc1b0">But the bill</a>, like others proposed in recent years, quickly faltered after Republicans opposed it. </p>
<p>This is far from the first time that Democrats and Republicans have failed to pass legislation that was intended to improve the country’s immigration system. </p>
<p>I am a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Y1qVRfUAAAAJ&hl=en">scholar of immigration and refugee policy</a>. Here are four key reasons why meaningful immigration policy change has been so difficult to achieve – and why it remains a pipe dream:</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575096/original/file-20240212-20-e4zl2t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="People wearing dark clothing and jackets reach for and hold bags of bread." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575096/original/file-20240212-20-e4zl2t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575096/original/file-20240212-20-e4zl2t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575096/original/file-20240212-20-e4zl2t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575096/original/file-20240212-20-e4zl2t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575096/original/file-20240212-20-e4zl2t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575096/original/file-20240212-20-e4zl2t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575096/original/file-20240212-20-e4zl2t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Newly arrived migrants receive a meal from a church in Manhattan on Jan. 24, 2024. According to New York Mayor Eric Adams’ administration, 172,400 migrants have arrived in the city since the spring of 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/people-mostly-newly-arrived-migrants-receive-an-afternoon-news-photo/1958071905?adppopup=true">Spencer Platt/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>1. Immigration reform has always been hard</h2>
<p>The U.S. has faced major roadblocks every time it has tried to achieve immigration reform. </p>
<p>For decades after World War II, presidents, lawmakers and activists tried and failed to revamp the nation’s immigration system to remove <a href="https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/erika-lee/america-for-americans/9781541672598/?lens=basic-books">racist quotas based on national origin</a>, set in the 1920s, that restricted all but northern and western Europeans from immigrating to the U.S. </p>
<p>Change finally came in 1965, when Congress passed the <a href="https://www.uscis.gov/laws-and-policy/legislation/immigration-and-nationality-act">Immigration and Nationality Act</a>. This required extensive negotiations. The final bipartisan bargain <a href="https://www.npr.org/2015/10/03/445339838/the-unintended-consequences-of-the-1965-immigration-act">removed racist quotas but appeased those who wanted to restrict immigration</a> by prioritizing new immigrants’ connections to family already in the country – a preference that lawmakers thought would favor Europeans.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691088051/dividing-lines">last big immigration reform</a> happened in 1986, when Congress passed the <a href="https://guides.loc.gov/latinx-civil-rights/irca">Immigration Reform and Control Act</a>. Year after year, throughout the 1970s and 1980s, Congressional bills to address the porous border with Mexico and the undocumented immigrant population living in the country went nowhere. After many false starts, an uneasy Left-Right majority finally agreed in 1986 on a package that sanctioned employers who hired undocumented immigrants, provided legal status to roughly 3 million undocumented migrants, created a new farmworker program, and increased border security resources.</p>
<p>For almost four decades, Washington has been stuck in neutral on this issue.</p>
<h2>2. The US is more polarized on immigration than ever before</h2>
<p>Americans have been at odds over how to handle immigration since the nation’s founding. But partisan and ideological polarization over border control and immigrants’ rights <a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/R/bo221112082.html">is greater today</a> than any other time.</p>
<p>Over the past 20 years, <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-politics-of-immigration-9780190235307?cc=us&lang=en&">Democratic and Republican voters</a> and politicians alike became more firmly <a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/R/bo28424644.html">aligned with rival</a> pro- and anti-immigration rights movements.</p>
<p>In 2008, 46% of Republicans and 39% of Democrats said they thought immigration to the U.S. <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/395882/immigration-views-remain-mixed-highly-partisan.aspx">should be decreased</a>. In 2023, GOP support for decreased immigration soared to 73%, compared with just 18% of Democrats who said they wanted that. Today, Republicans are almost three times as likely as Democrats to see unauthorized immigration as a very big national problem – <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/06/21/inflation-health-costs-partisan-cooperation-among-the-nations-top-problems/">70% versus 25%</a>.</p>
<p>Despite growing polarization, leaders from both parties have tried a few times in recent decades to work together on bipartisan reform. </p>
<p>In 2006, former President George W. Bush, a Republican, joined Senators Edward Kennedy, a Democrat, John McCain, a member of the GOP, and other lawmakers in a coalition that pushed for comprehensive immigration reform. Like the 1986 reform, their proposal included stronger border security measures, a path to legalization for undocumented immigrants and a new, expansive program for employers to legally host foreign workers. </p>
<p>Right-wing pundits and anti-immigrant activists vigorously mobilized <a href="https://cis.org/Historical-Overview-Immigration-Policy">against the legislation,</a> and the GOP-controlled House of Representatives killed the bill.</p>
<p>In 2013, a <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2013/06/24/getting-to-maybe">bipartisan group of politicians called the “Gang of Eight”</a> spearheaded a new reform. Their bill reflected a familiar package: a new path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, more work visas for skilled foreign immigrants, and a guest worker program. The <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2013/06/immigration-bill-2013-senate-passes-093530">Senate passed the legislation</a>, but the <a href="https://www.salon.com/2007/06/26/immigration_22/">measure then died</a> in the House. The Republican majority there refused to vote on what they considered an amnesty bill.</p>
<p>Partisan warfare over immigration reached a fevered pitch during the Donald Trump presidency. Liberals, for example, rallied against Trump’s <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2017/01/a-weekend-of-protest-against-trumps-immigration-ban/514953/">ban on immigrants from some Muslim countries</a>, and conservatives fretted over <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/donald-trump-the-migrant-caravan-and-a-manufactured-crisis-at-the-us-border">caravans of migrants crossing into the country</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575364/original/file-20240213-30-wm3195.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Kyrsten Sinema wears a red dress and red framed glasses and gestures with her hands, while people stand around her and hold out phones and tape recorders." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575364/original/file-20240213-30-wm3195.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575364/original/file-20240213-30-wm3195.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575364/original/file-20240213-30-wm3195.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575364/original/file-20240213-30-wm3195.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575364/original/file-20240213-30-wm3195.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575364/original/file-20240213-30-wm3195.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575364/original/file-20240213-30-wm3195.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">US Senator Kyrsten Sinema, one of the co-sponsors of the Senate bi-partisan border and immigration bill, speaks to reporters in Washington, D.C., on Feb. 5, 2024.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/sen-kyrsten-sinema-speaks-to-reporters-at-the-u-s-capitol-news-photo/1988744214?adppopup=true">Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>3. There’s little bipartisan agreement over what the problem actually is</h2>
<p>Most Americans generally agree that the nation’s immigration system is broken. Yet different political groups cannot agree on what exactly is wrong and how to solve it.</p>
<p>For some Republicans, including former Trump, the problem is lax border control and permissive policies that allow dangerous migrants to enter and stay in the country. Right-wing politicians and commentators, like Tucker Carlson, have exploited these anxieties, warning that large-scale immigration will <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/15/us/replacement-theory-shooting-tucker-carlson.html">“replace” white Americans</a>. Their solution is to militarize the nation’s borders, deport undocumented immigrants living in the country, and make it harder for people to legally stay in the country. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.hoover.org/research/mobility-socialism-how-anti-immigration-politics-advances-socialism-and-impedes-capitalism">There are also conservatives</a> who think immigration is consistent with the principles of individual liberty, entrepreneurship and national economic growth. They support more visas for highly skilled newcomers, especially those with strong science and technology backgrounds.</p>
<p>Democrats <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/09/08/republicans-and-democrats-have-different-top-priorities-for-u-s-immigration-policy/">aligned with the immigrant rights</a> movement believe that the country is obliged to address the humanitarian needs of migrants seeking asylum at the southern border. They argue that millions of undocumented people <a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520287266/lives-in-limbo">living in the shadows</a> of American life creates an undemocratic caste system, and they think this can be solved by creating pathways for most undocumented immigrants to get legal permanent residency. </p>
<p>Moderate Democrats <a href="https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/laurieroberts/2024/02/07/kyrsten-sinema-border-bill-impact-arizona-election/72509061007/">advocate tougher restrictions to address migrant surges</a> that overwhelm Border Patrol agents and other officials along the U.S.-Mexican border. Their solutions include hiring thousands of new immigration officers, strengthening physical and technological barriers along the border, and making the asylum program more efficient. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575097/original/file-20240212-16-pkh45o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Joe Biden wears dark sunglasses and a suit and walks, in front of men in green uniforms, along a large fence. The sun shines through it." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575097/original/file-20240212-16-pkh45o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575097/original/file-20240212-16-pkh45o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575097/original/file-20240212-16-pkh45o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575097/original/file-20240212-16-pkh45o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575097/original/file-20240212-16-pkh45o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575097/original/file-20240212-16-pkh45o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575097/original/file-20240212-16-pkh45o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Joe Biden walks along the U.S.-Mexico border fence in January 2023 in El Paso, Texas.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-joe-biden-walks-along-the-us-mexico-border-fence-news-photo/1246095870?adppopup=true">Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>4. Immigration reform is especially messy in a presidential election year</h2>
<p>Presidential election years are fertile ground for politicking on immigrants and borders, but not lasting policy reform.</p>
<p>In 2021, President Joe Biden and his supporters introduced an <a href="https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/laurieroberts/2024/02/07/kyrsten-sinema-border-bill-impact-arizona-election/72509061007/">immigration bill</a> that would offer a pathway to legal residency for nearly all undocumented immigrants. But the measure never gained the 60 votes necessary to win passage in the Senate. </p>
<p>Now, Biden finds himself <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4394262-biden-approval-rating-on-handling-immigration-reaches-all-time-low-poll/">underwater with voters, including Democrats, on immigration</a> and the perceived chaos at the border. </p>
<p>Eager to protect themselves in the 2024 election and to alleviate the headaches that migrant surges at the border present, Biden and other top Democrats temporarily set aside past blueprints for legalizing undocumented people and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senate-unveils-118-billion-bipartisan-bill-tighten-border-security-aid-2024-02-04/">joined Republican negotiators</a> in advancing one of the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/border-deal-to-cut-illegal-immigration-is-released-after-months-of-talks-26a66211">toughest border security measures</a> in decades. This bill, which the Senate introduced on Feb. 5, 2024, would have dedicated US$20.2 billion to strengthen border security, and it would have made it much harder for immigrants to apply for or receive asylum. </p>
<p>Republican border hawks had long demanded more restrictive immigration rules. But they did not embrace this deal. When Trump eviscerated the legislation, intent on keeping problems at the border as a campaign issue, Republican members of Congress lined up to quickly kill the legislation.</p>
<p>The death of the bipartisan Senate border deal is a triumph of election-year grandstanding over governing. Yet its demise also reflects a much longer trend of ideological conflict and partisan warfare that has made congressional gridlock on immigration reform a defining feature of contemporary American politics.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223072/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel Tichenor does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Immigration reform has always been hard to accomplish. As the U.S. enters an election year, bipartisan reform now appears out of reach.Daniel Tichenor, Professor of Political Science, University of OregonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2150682024-01-10T01:00:43Z2024-01-10T01:00:43ZAustralia’s skilled migration policy changed how and where migrants settle<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563888/original/file-20231206-21-3itee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4392%2C2910&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/cabramatta-new-south-wales-australia-march-1351546931">Slow Walker/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Howard government (1996-2007) shifted migration policy away from family migration and towards skilled migrants. Our <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264275123002949">recently</a> published <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S014362282300245X">research</a> analysed changes in migrant clusters at the level of local neighbourhoods. We also looked at where these clusters are located. </p>
<p>Understanding where cultural diversity occurs and how quickly people are being assimilated can help policymakers to ensure resources are fairly distributed and communities’ resilience enhanced. These issues affect place-based health, urban planning and disaster risk management policies. Better targeting of services is also vital for fostering a sense of belonging, social cohesion and inclusion across Australian society.</p>
<p>In particular, evaluating whether the skilled migration policy has been a success involves understanding whether or not highly educated immigrants are finding jobs that match their qualifications. Our research suggests this hasn’t been the case. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1398836588851965956"}"></div></p>
<h2>How migrants get a foothold in society</h2>
<p>Different theories of settlement and integration make different assumptions about how migrants will settle in society. In our research we found segmented assimilation best characterises migrant experiences from 2001 to 2021. This means there are different “segments”, such as occupations and locations, available to migrants to get a foothold before assimilating. </p>
<p>Using language spoken at home as an indicator, we show diversity is higher in urban areas than in rural areas in all states and territories except the Northern Territory. Diversity is also spread more evenly throughout urban areas. Rural areas have pockets of diversity. </p>
<p>Using language spoken at home, we can see the cultural diversity of protected regions in Northern Territory and Western Australia because of the high populations of Indigenous peoples. A different picture emerges in the cities. </p>
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<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-988" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/988/e259f60c772edeb98ee960f11955f1d79dd79d25/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-989" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/989/6e08aaf7a3133774361bad5c0744155a0213ddba/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>For example, comparing the picture in Sydney in 2001 to 2021, diversity has grown to encompass most of the inner suburbs. It has fallen away in the outer suburbs or peri-urban areas. </p>
<p>Over the same time in Melbourne, diversity has gone from being evenly spread to becoming patchy in the inner areas. (Our <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264275123002949">research paper</a> maps the diversity changes in the other capital cities.) </p>
<p>While the overall trend of migrant movement is towards the suburbs, we found this trend isn’t statistically significant compared to other trends. For example, other patterns of movement, such as people moving from suburbs towards the city centre, might also be significant.</p>
<p>The graphs below show the clustering of diversity in different cities. Zero in the Moran’s index indicates diversity is randomly spread. The index increases as diversity becomes more clustered. For example, there might be schools or other facilities that encourage clustering. </p>
<p>For most of the larger cities clustering is relatively fixed over time. Levels of clustering in Adelaide and Melbourne have stayed higher than in other cities.</p>
<h2>What features allow clusters of diversity to persist?</h2>
<p>We then examined the features of these clusters across Australia. In other words, what are the physical features of these places? And what are the characteristics of their residents? </p>
<p>Overwhelmingly, people born in Asia and especially China now dominate clusters of diversity. They have replaced European-dominated migration, which was still apparent in 2001. </p>
<p>Another major shift occurred early in the 2000s and came to dominate during the “skilled migrant” era. This has been the ability of migrants to speak good English. The data show migrants tended to be increasingly tertiary-educated and employed in managerial professions. </p>
<p>Surprisingly, despite these skills, these workers tend to have lower incomes than non-migrants. New immigrants with good education and language skills may have difficulties finding jobs that match their education levels. They earn less than their non-migrant counterparts, which suggests they are overqualified for the jobs they do find.</p>
<p>The data also reveal how much physical features may be associated with diversity. Using an AI technique known as SHAP (Shapley Additive exPlanations) on the five census years (2001 to 2021), we showed travel to work by public transport is most strongly associated with diversity. However, the strength of this falls away over time. </p>
<p>Crowded houses are at first linked with diversity, but this trend is reversed in later years. Rented houses also decrease in association, possibly in line with more migrants owning homes in the suburbs.</p>
<p><iframe id="c0T5m" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/c0T5m/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Continually diverse, upwardly and outwardly mobile</h2>
<p>During the “<a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/233573553_The_Australian_Society_of_the_State_Egalitarian_Ideologies_and_New_Directions_in_Exclusionary_Practice">Hanson years</a>” of immigration policy in Australia, the country moved away from family-based migration towards a policy that made sense economically, but in its extreme form was anti-humanitarian. </p>
<p>Beneath the signature changes in policy on refugees and asylum seekers, our research papers show a longer-term and arguably more significant groundswell of change in our cities. This was assimilation based on migrant desires that all Australians share: good English, home ownership, suburbanisation and good public transport.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215068/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marco Amati receives funding from the Australian Research Council and Australian Urban Research Infrastructure Network (AURIN). This work was funded by High Impact Project 2022 “Nationwide Longitudinal Database for Emerging CALD Communities and Social-Environmental Inequities”.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joe Hurley receives funding from the Australian Research Council and Australian Urban Research Infrastructure Network (AURIN). This work was funded by the AURIN High Impact Project 2022 “Nationwide Longitudinal Database for Emerging CALD Communities and Social-Environmental Inequities”. Joe is on the technical advisory committee for the Council Alliance for Sustainable Built Environment.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr. Qian (Chayn) Sun receives funding from NCRIS-enabled Australian Urban Research Infrastructure Network (AURIN). She researches and teaches fundamental and applied Geospatial Technology and Science at RMIT University. She is the founder of GISail (Geospatial Informatics and Intelligence) research group. This work was funded by High Impact Project 2022 “Nationwide Longitudinal Database for Emerging CALD Communities and Social-Environmental Inequities”.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Siqin (Sisi) Wang is affiliated with Spatial Sciences Institute, University of Southern California, US as an Associate Professor and double affiliated to RMIT, Australia as a Senior Lecturer and University of Queensland, Australia as a Honorary Research Fellow. </span></em></p>The shift from family migration towards skilled migrants changed settlement patterns in the first two decades of this century. But these skilled migrants still get paid less than non-migrants.Marco Amati, Professor of International Planning, Centre for Urban Research, RMIT UniversityJoe Hurley, Associate Professor, Sustainability and Urban Planning, RMIT UniversityQian (Chayn) Sun, Associate Professor of Geospatial Science, RMIT UniversitySiqin (Sisi) Wang, Associate Professor (Teaching) of Spatial Sciences, University of Southern CaliforniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2174382023-11-10T07:14:08Z2023-11-10T07:14:08ZThe High Court has decided indefinite detention is unlawful. What happens now?<p>This week, the High Court of Australia <a href="https://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/cases/cth/HCATrans/2023/154.html">ordered</a> the release of a Rohingya man from immigration detention where he had been for the last five and a half years. </p>
<p>Commentators and human rights groups have been <a href="https://x.com/KaldorCentre/status/1722171447702077881?s=20">celebrating</a> this decision, which indicates the court will overturn a 20-year-old precedent.</p>
<p>The court has stated it will release its decision at a later time. It is important to wait for that judgement to determine the full implications of the decision and how it may limit the government’s power to detain non-citizens. </p>
<p>But here’s a brief rundown on the background of the case and some considerations of what could happen next.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/i-have-no-rights-what-happens-to-stateless-people-in-australia-after-the-high-courts-ruling-217363">'I have no rights': what happens to stateless people in Australia after the High Court's ruling?</a>
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<h2>What laws did the case focus on?</h2>
<p>The laws in question are in the Migration Act, which <a href="https://classic.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/consol_act/ma1958118/s189.html">states</a> a non-citizen who does not hold a visa must be detained. </p>
<p>Currently people in immigration detention do not have the right to have a court determine whether their detention is necessary, reasonable, and/or proportionate. These assessments are undertaken by departmental officials and the minister. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1722171447702077881"}"></div></p>
<p>The law considers detention mandatory, irrespective of the individual’s circumstances. </p>
<p>In the case of <a href="https://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/cases/cth/HCA/2004/37.html">Al-Kateb v Godwin</a>, the chief justice of the High Court described the need for detention:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>A person […] might be young or old, dangerous or harmless, likely or unlikely to abscond, recently in detention or someone who has been there for years, healthy or unhealthy, badly affected by incarceration or relatively unaffected. The considerations that might bear upon the reasonableness of a discretionary decision to detain such a person do not operate.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The detained person must remain so until granted a visa or is removed. </p>
<p>Removal, if it’s needed, must occur as soon as “reasonably practicable”. </p>
<p>Over the years, many cases have tested these laws, and until now, the High Court has upheld them.</p>
<p>The lack of time limits on detention, and the inability to challenge it, have made Australia an outlier internationally.</p>
<p>The laws have also been <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/australia/new-un-report-torture-urges-changes-australian-refugee-policy#:%7E:text=The%20Committee%20noted%20a%20number,%2Dtreatment%20and%20suspicious%20deaths%E2%80%9D.">heavily criticised</a>, both domestically and globally. </p>
<p>Such has been the egregious nature of the system that the High Court allowed the UNSW Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law and the Human Rights Law Centre to argue the <a href="https://www.kaldorcentre.unsw.edu.au/news/indefinite-immigration-detention-unlawful-high-court-rules">international human rights</a> dimensions of the case.</p>
<p>Despite this, the policy has had bipartisan political support for decades. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/futile-and-cruel-plan-to-charge-fees-for-immigration-detention-has-no-redeeming-features-183035">'Futile and cruel': plan to charge fees for immigration detention has no redeeming features</a>
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<h2>Who was at the centre of the case?</h2>
<p>The Rohingya refugee at the centre of the case is referred to as “NZYQ”. He’s around 30 years old.</p>
<p>As a Rohingya, he had <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/11/09/landmark-australian-ruling-rejects-indefinite-immigration-detention">not been able to</a> obtain citizenship of Myanmar and was stateless. </p>
<p>He had arrived in Australia by boat in 2012. He had been granted a temporary visa, but this was cancelled in 2015 after he committed <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/nov/09/high-court-indefinite-immigration-detention-coalition-safety">a criminal offence</a> and was sentenced to a term in prison. </p>
<p>Still unable to get a visa, he was transferred to immigration detention once he’d served his sentence. </p>
<p>Australia accepted the man could not be sent to Myanmar, and instead tried unsuccessfully to have a number of other countries take him via their refugee or humanitarian programs. </p>
<p>Having found there was no country he could be removed to in the “reasonably foreseeable future” and his visa refused, the man was facing the prospect of remaining in detention indefinitely. </p>
<p>In light of this, the High Court found his ongoing detention was unlawful and they ordered his immediate release from detention.</p>
<h2>Law that comes with a cost</h2>
<p>There is an increasing number of people in detention who remain there for long periods of time. Some are stateless, and others who can’t be returned to their home countries due to risk of persecution.</p>
<p>Over the past five years, the average length of detention has increased from <a href="https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/research-and-stats/files/immigration-detention-statistics-31-august-2017.pdf%20to%20708%20dayshttps://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/research-and-stats/files/immigration-detention-statistics-31-august-2023.pdf">445 days</a> to <a href="https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/research-and-stats/files/immigration-detention-statistics-31-august-2023.pdf">708 days</a>. Some people have been detained for more than 10 years. </p>
<p>One of the many criticisms levelled at this system is that it’s extremely expensive.</p>
<p>Between 2020 and 2021, the <a href="https://www.refugeecouncil.org.au/detention-australia-statistics/10/">average cost</a> to the Australian taxpayer for one person in an immigration detention facility was $428,542.</p>
<p>That’s not to mention the significant physical and mental health toll on people.</p>
<p>There have been close to <a href="https://www.refugeecouncil.org.au/detention-australia-statistics/10/">3,000 incidents of self-harm</a>, real and threatened, in detention over the past five years.</p>
<h2>So what happens in the short term?</h2>
<p>As a first step, the government may be facing the prospect of releasing a number of people who have been detained for several years. </p>
<p>It is estimated there may be <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/nov/08/australia-high-court-indefinite-detention-ruling-government">92 people</a> impacted by the judgement. </p>
<p>The government has stated the Rohingya man in the case has been released <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/nov/09/high-court-indefinite-immigration-detention-coalition-safety">on “strict conditions”</a>, but we don’t know what sort of visa he might be on.</p>
<p>It is not clear what those conditions are, but legally, a person can be released from detention on a temporary “bridging visa”. </p>
<p>The Department of Home Affairs can impose conditions on a bridging visa which could include: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>where the person lives</p></li>
<li><p>reporting regularly to the Department of Home Affairs</p></li>
<li><p>that the person “not engage in criminal conduct”</p></li>
<li><p>that they comply with a specific “Code of Behaviour”.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>This, of course, should be accompanied by a range of psychological and social support services, which are currently <a href="https://immi.homeaffairs.gov.au/what-we-do/status-resolution-service/status-resolution-support-services">very limited</a>.</p>
<p>There will need to be consideration for better pathways to more visa certainty and permanent residency, especially for <a href="https://theconversation.com/i-have-no-rights-what-happens-to-stateless-people-in-australia-after-the-high-courts-ruling-217363">stateless people</a>.</p>
<h2>Legislative reform on the cards</h2>
<p>We need to wait for the judgement to determine what, if any, legislative reform may be needed, but the government will be considering a number of options. </p>
<p>We should use this opportunity to ensure our laws comply with our human rights obligations.</p>
<p>International standards specify that a person detained for immigration purposes must be brought before a judicial authority “promptly” and that their detention must be subject to “regular periodic reviews”. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-immigration-detention-bill-could-give-australia-a-fresh-chance-to-comply-with-international-law-188519">New immigration detention bill could give Australia a fresh chance to comply with international law</a>
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<p>There is a substantial <a href="https://www.kaldorcentre.unsw.edu.au/publication/immigration-detention-australia">body of evidence</a> demonstrating that hasn’t been the case for far too long.</p>
<p>A key legislative reform should be to make detention discretionary instead of mandatory. People should also have access to independent review of their detention.</p>
<p>There has been a wealth of <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/binaries/house/committee/mig/detention/report/fullreport.pdf">inquiries</a>, <a href="https://idcoalition.org/cap/">submissions</a> and examples from overseas which the government could look to, for a start. </p>
<p>More will be revealed about this case in the coming weeks and months, but there are many things the government can start doing immediately to better balance this unfair and punitive system.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217438/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mary Anne Kenny has previously received funding from the Australian Research Council and sitting fees from the Department of Home Affairs</span></em></p>This week, the High Court made an order which overturns the laws on which much of Australia’s immigration system is based. What happens to the law, and those most affected by it, now?Mary Anne Kenny, Associate Professor, School of Law, Murdoch UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2065612023-08-01T12:26:31Z2023-08-01T12:26:31ZFrom Chinatowns to ethnoburbs and beyond, where Chinese people settle reflects changing wealth levels and political climates<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539837/original/file-20230727-25-lyreav.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3000%2C1998&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">San Francisco has the oldest and largest Chinatown in the U.S.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/NewChinatown/1d94fd84eccd46e7bf0deccf90b93f77">Eric Risberg/AP Photo</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The origins, demographics and settlement patterns of the <a href="https://en.unesco.org/courier/2021-4/overseas-chinese-long-history">approximately 60 million people</a> worldwide who make up the Chinese diaspora, including immigrants and their descendants, are becoming increasingly diverse. Illustrating this diversity are two mass shootings during the 2023 Lunar New Year in California’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/monterey-park-a-pioneering-asian-american-suburb-shaken-by-the-tragedy-of-a-mass-shooting-198373">Monterey Park</a> and <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/01/29/1152389441/half-moon-bay-shooting-motive-repair-bill">Half Moon Bay</a>, communities that include Chinese immigrants ranging from middle- to upper-middle-class residents to farmworkers.</p>
<p>We <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=YX2aPagAAAAJ&hl=en">are researchers</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=UijrqwIAAAAJ&hl=en">who study</a> international migration. One of us <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/0042098984871">coined the term “ethnoburb</a>” to describe suburban communities that have mixed racial and socioeconomic groups.</p>
<p>Ethnoburbs defy the traditional assumption that Chinese immigrants arrive poor and have to settle in urban Chinatowns before earning enough money to move to the suburbs. Instead, educated and wealthy Chinese immigrants arriving in the past few decades have settled in upper middle- to upper-class neighborhoods. Meanwhile, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/sf/soy061">Chinese immigrants working low-wage jobs</a> have increasingly settled in rural areas and cities that aren’t considered gateways to the U.S. And <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt16nzfbd">Chinese restaurateurs</a> are scattered across urban and rural areas in many countries. </p>
<p>The evolution of these communities involves a two-way integration process, with newer and older generations of immigrants, as well as long-term non-Chinese residents, adjusting to one another. Shifting Chinese immigrant settlement patterns reflect the changing profile of Chinese immigrants and the effects of globalization and geopolitics.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/XvBVj4qov_I?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">About half of the victims of the January 2023 Monterey Park and Half Moon Bay shootings in California were Chinese.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Changing Chinatowns</h2>
<p>Large-scale emigration out of China’s Guangdong province <a href="https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/china-development-transformed-migration">started in the 19th century</a>, propelled by poverty and oppression at home and promising opportunities abroad, such as the gold rush in Australia, New Zealand and the U.S., and railroad construction in North America.</p>
<p>Chinatowns – inner-city, compact Chinese residential and commercial quarters – represent the prototypical <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/227240">ethnic enclave</a>, a geographic area with high concentrations of a particular ethnic group. The <a href="https://www.pbs.org/kqed/chinatown/resourceguide/index.html">first Chinatown in the U.S.</a> emerged in San Francisco in 1848 as a gateway and transnational hub for Chinese immigrants.</p>
<p>When the initial gold rush and railroad construction jobs ran dry and <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-forgotten-history-of-the-purging-of-chinese-from-america">anti-Chinese racism</a> became rampant, Chinatowns soon became refuges for Chinese immigrants to shield themselves from the harsh reality of legal exclusion and racist violence. A number of Chinatowns were displaced in the name of <a href="https://uhpress.hawaii.edu/title/ethnoburb-the-new-ethnic-community-in-urban-america/">urban development</a> or <a href="https://laist.com/news/la-history/destruction-las-original-chinatown-led-to-one-we-have-today">because of violence</a>.</p>
<p>From the 19th to mid-20th centuries, racist legislation like the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/White-Australia-Policy">White Australia Policy</a> and the Chinese Exclusion Acts <a href="https://parks.canada.ca/culture/designation/evenement-event/exclusion-chinois-chinese">in Canada</a> and <a href="https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/chinese-exclusion-act#">the U.S.</a> severely curbed Chinese immigration, causing Chinatowns to dwindle or disappear altogether.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539832/original/file-20230727-79144-2y87qu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="View of Chinese storefronts, with a large apartment building in the background and cars in the foreground" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539832/original/file-20230727-79144-2y87qu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539832/original/file-20230727-79144-2y87qu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539832/original/file-20230727-79144-2y87qu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539832/original/file-20230727-79144-2y87qu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539832/original/file-20230727-79144-2y87qu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539832/original/file-20230727-79144-2y87qu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539832/original/file-20230727-79144-2y87qu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">While some Chinatowns have become tourist attractions, others, like that of Washington, D.C., have experienced gentrification and shrinking Chinese communities.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wei Li</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Since the repeal of those policies, the fate of Chinatowns in different locations has varied dramatically. Some, such as those in <a href="https://www.nps.gov/places/new-york-chinatown-and-little-italy-historic-district.htm">New York</a> and <a href="http://www.sanfranciscochinatown.com/history/">San Francisco</a>, became prime tourist attractions and gateways for new immigrants working low-wage jobs. Most have experienced gentrification and international investment from Asia. </p>
<p>This has led to shrinking Chinese communities and business districts in cities like <a href="https://www.historians.org/research-and-publications/perspectives-on-history/december-2017/the-rise-and-fall-of-dcs-chinatown">Washington, D.C.</a>, while other Chinatowns, like those in <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06-04/chinatown-history-versus-modernity-odyssey/102356524">Melbourne</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/sydneys-chinatown-is-much-more-of-a-modern-bridge-to-asia-than-a-historic-enclave-94482">Sydney</a> in Australia, have expanded into thriving neighborhoods. Some intentionally developed Chinatowns, like the one <a href="https://www.lonelyplanet.com/articles/chinatown-las-vegas">Las Vegas</a> opened in 1995, are commercial plazas with mostly restaurants and shops.</p>
<h2>Emergence of ethnoburbs</h2>
<p>Another type of immigrant community has been emerging since the 1960s as a result of <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctvvn6b1">changing immigration policies</a>: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/0042098984871">ethnoburbs</a>. These are suburban settlements with multiethnic residential and business areas, where a single ethnic group may not necessarily constitute a majority.</p>
<p>To attract highly skilled and well-educated immigrants, a number of countries instituted point systems that evaluate an applicant’s education, professional experience and language proficiency, among other qualifications. Meanwhile, economic growth in their countries of origin allowed wealthy immigrants to settle directly in the suburbs rather than urban Chinatowns.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/0042098984871">shifting geographic center</a> of Chinese settlement in Los Angeles County showcases the development of an ethnoburb. The first half of the 20th century witnessed slow southward movement away from downtown, largely due to Chinese residents’ moving out of Chinatown. Then, during the second half of the century, the center moved steadily eastward as large numbers of new Chinese immigrants directly settled in the suburban San Gabriel Valley, signifying the emergence of an ethnoburb.</p>
<p>Because of the diverse local industries and demographics of immigrants around the world, each ethnoburb evolves in different ways. For example, ethnoburbs in <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctvvn6b1">Silicon Valley</a> emerged with high-tech industries attracting skilled and affluent Asian Americans who are highly politically involved. And unlike the predominantly Chinese ethnoburb in San Gabriel Valley, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-rise-of-the-super-diverse-ethnoburbs-90926">Sydney’s “super-diverse ethnoburb”</a> is characterized by multiple different ethnic groups from various countries of origin. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">San Gabriel Valley, a cluster of ethnoburbs in Los Angeles County, is known for its broad array of Chinese cuisine.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Ethnoburbs are different from Chinatowns</h2>
<p>Ethnoburbs coexist with Chinatowns in many countries, but they <a href="https://doi.org/10.4000/cybergeo.1018">differ from ethnic enclaves</a> not only in their location but also in terms of their ethnic concentration and class differences. Residents in ethnoburbs are more racially and socioeconomically diverse, suggesting greater potential for racial tensions and class conflicts than traditional ethnic enclaves. For example, the growing presence of wealthy Asians in Arcadia, California, fueled <a href="https://www.latimes.com/entertainment/arts/la-et-cm-arcadia-immigration-architecture-20140511-story.html">increasing housing prices and a McMansion boom</a> that concerned local residents. </p>
<p>However, unlike the self-contained communities in ethnic enclaves, residents in ethnoburbs are more likely to interact with other groups, which makes it easier for them to <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctvvn6b1">forge economic ties and build political alliances</a>. For instance, Asian Americans in Silicon Valley have established business councils and parent associations made up of different Asian ethnicities and exhibit higher political awareness and engagement.</p>
<p>Many ethnoburbs have supplanted Chinatowns as the commercial and cultural centers of contemporary Chinese diasporas.</p>
<p>Obviously, not all Chinese people live in Chinatowns or ethnoburbs. Many live in other locations, and they’re not always surrounded by other Chinese people. Geographers <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/(sici)1099-1220(199812)4:4%3C281::aid-ijpg108%3E3.0.co;2-o">coined the term “heterolocalism”</a> to describe immigrants and minorities who live in areas with less ethnic diversity but are still able to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0038022920956737">retain their cultural identity</a>.</p>
<h2>Geopolitics and integration</h2>
<p>Changing political climates may also lead to shifting trends in immigration. </p>
<p>Recent decades have seen increasing <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/asian-america/anti-asian-hate-crimes-increased-339-percent-nationwide-last-year-repo-rcna14282">anti-Asian hate</a> amid rising geopolitical tensions with the People’s Republic of China, especially since the COVID-19 pandemic began. The long-term effects of these trends on Chinese diasporas are unclear. But many are already experiencing the backlash and face racial violence.</p>
<p>In the U.S., <a href="https://www.committee100.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/C100-Lee-Li-White-Paper-FINAL-FINAL-10.28.pdf">Chinese scientists</a> are facing racial profiling, Chinese business owners have had their <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/asian-america/smashed-windows-racist-graffiti-vandals-target-asian-americans-amid-coronavirus-n1180556">properties vandalized</a> and many Chinese Americans have been <a href="https://stopaapihate.org/2022/07/20/year-2-report/">violently attacked</a>. States have <a href="https://www.quorum.us/spreadsheet/external/KscrjHCRzvqUdRtMcgpX/">passed or proposed laws</a> that bar or restrict citizens of China from purchasing properties. These laws resemble 20th-century <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/86722/with-new-alien-land-laws-asian-immigrants-are-once-again-targeted-by-real-estate-bans/">U.S. Alien Land Laws</a> that prohibited Asian immigrants from owning land. Anti-Chinese violence is also happening in other places like <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssaho.2021.100232">Canada</a> and <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/05/12/covid-19-fueling-anti-asian-racism-and-xenophobia-worldwide">Europe</a>.</p>
<p>We hope that ethnoburbs will not become, like historical Chinatowns, the only refuge for Chinese immigrants to live. Learning from history’s mistakes is key to building a fair and just society for all, the Chinese diaspora included.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206561/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wei Li receives funding from US National Science Foundation, Canadian Government, Fulbright. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Yining Tan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Chinatowns once served as gateways for early Chinese immigrants. But the suburbs are the center of cultural and commercial life for new immigrants and later generations.Wei Li, Professor of Asian Pacific American Studies, Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning, Arizona State UniversityYining Tan, Assistant Professor of Practice, University of ArizonaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2105172023-07-27T12:26:58Z2023-07-27T12:26:58ZFederal government is challenging Texas’s buoys in the Rio Grande – here’s why these kinds of border blockades wind up complicating immigration enforcement<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539616/original/file-20230726-21-pfd09i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Buoy barriers are shown in the middle of the Rio Grande in Eagle Pass, Texas, on July 18, 2023. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/buoy-barriers-are-installed-and-situated-in-the-middle-of-news-photo/1554459107?adppopup=true">Brandon Bell/Getty Images </a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The Rio Grande is only about 328 feet, or about 99 meters, wide. But the waterway dividing Texas from northern Mexico is deceptively dangerous and routinely <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/sep/05/migrants-risk-death-crossing-treacherous-rio-grande-river-for-american-dream">claims the lives of migrants</a> who try to cross it, but get caught in undetected rip currents or otherwise drown.</em> </p>
<p><em>Now, it’s the site of a legal battle between the U.S. federal government and the state of Texas regarding the right to enact blockades in the river</em>. </p>
<p><em>The U.S. Justice Department announced on July 24, 2023, that it <a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-files-complaint-against-state-texas-illegally-placing-floating-buoy">filed a civil lawsuit</a> against Texas for illegally placing a floating buoy barrier in a section of the Rio Grande that runs about 1,000 feet, or 304 meters, long.</em> </p>
<p><em>Texas Gov. Greg Abbott <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/21/biden-administration-warns-texas-over-floating-barriers-at-border">rejected the Justice Department’s appeal in mid-July </a> to remove the buoys, saying that they were necessary to keep migrants out of Texas.</em> </p>
<p><em>The case raises questions about federal versus state control over the border – as well as whether tactics like buoys are actually effective at deterring migrants. In some cases, they frustrate immigration enforcement efforts in other ways, according to immigration legal scholar <a href="https://gould.usc.edu/faculty/?id=72708">Jean Lantz Reisz</a>.</em> </p>
<p><em>The Conversation’s politics and society editor Amy Lieberman spoke with Reisz to better understand the significance of this conflict.</em></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539617/original/file-20230726-23-wdarm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A group of people are seen walking through knee-deep water, in front of a long row of large orange circular buoys." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539617/original/file-20230726-23-wdarm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539617/original/file-20230726-23-wdarm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539617/original/file-20230726-23-wdarm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539617/original/file-20230726-23-wdarm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539617/original/file-20230726-23-wdarm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539617/original/file-20230726-23-wdarm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539617/original/file-20230726-23-wdarm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Migrants walk between a wire fence and a string of buoys in the Rio Grande on July 16, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/migrants-walk-between-concertina-wire-and-a-string-of-buoys-news-photo/1536221750?adppopup=true">Suzanne Cordeiro/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<h2>Who controls this section of the Rio Grande?</h2>
<p>I believe a patchwork of private owners and entities own the section of the Rio Grande where the buoys are located. And on the Mexico side it is the Mexican government – the border goes down the middle. The International Boundary Water Commission manages the Rio Grande border and is jointly run by U.S. and Mexico. </p>
<p>Typically, federal authorities regulate the border territories. All ports of entry are federal, for example. And a state like Texas cannot interfere with U.S. border enforcement. Texas could not claim that it owns this land and thus can erect whatever structures they want on it. And if it impedes the objective of the federal government of securing the border, that is unlawful. </p>
<h2>But the lawsuit’s claims are more specific than this question, right?</h2>
<p>The lawsuit alleges that Texas is violating the <a href="https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/inport/item/59646">Rivers and Harbors Act,</a> which is a federal act that says if a state wants to erect any structure in navigable waters of the United States, it has to seek a permit from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. That has to do with the federal power over interstate and foreign commerce. </p>
<p>Getting a permit like this would have required an investigation of potential humanitarian and environmental consequences to the buoys. I think that, in this case, the Rio Grande is a navigable water that is on the border and the permit would have been denied. </p>
<p>The bigger picture is that a state is impeding the federal government’s jurisdiction. </p>
<h2>How could the buoys complicate federal immigration enforcement?</h2>
<p>The U.S. <a href="https://www.cbp.gov/border-security#:%7E:text=CBP%27s%20top%20priority%20is%20to,narcotics%20smuggling%20and%20illegal%20importation.">has a strategy</a> in enforcing the border that involves physical border patrol enforcement, <a href="https://www.cbp.gov/frontline/cbp-small-drones-program">drones</a>, <a href="https://www.codastory.com/authoritarian-tech/us-border-surveillance/">heat sensors</a> and so on. So when a state comes and physically blocks off a part of the border, that frustrates the entire strategy. </p>
<p>It means that certain identifiable routes where people are being apprehended are now obstructed. This creates new migration routes, so people might not cross at this particular small section of the river, but they will find another section of the river and cross there, instead. </p>
<p>And if the buoys create an unsafe situation that results in rescue operations of migrants, it adds to the cost – not on enforcing the border, but on rescuing people. </p>
<p>In addition, Mexico’s cooperation is part of U.S. border enforcement strategy, and the buoys affect agreements between U.S. and Mexico over the use of the river. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539618/original/file-20230726-17-fgerr5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A person with a cowboy hat is seen from behind, talking on the phone as he looks at large trucks with big orange buoys lined up behind them." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539618/original/file-20230726-17-fgerr5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539618/original/file-20230726-17-fgerr5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539618/original/file-20230726-17-fgerr5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539618/original/file-20230726-17-fgerr5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539618/original/file-20230726-17-fgerr5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539618/original/file-20230726-17-fgerr5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539618/original/file-20230726-17-fgerr5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A person surveys buoy barriers before they are installed in the Rio Grande on July 7, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/person-speaks-on-the-phone-while-surveying-the-preparation-news-photo/1523062022?adppopup=true">Brandon Bell/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How often does this kind of conflict over immigration authority happen?</h2>
<p>There have been previous legal challenges regarding Texas wanting to have control over border enforcement. Issues like state police arresting people who <a href="https://www.khou.com/article/news/special-reports/at-the-border/texas-border-force/285-54daeb32-72d9-4d72-bbfb-af906d744b9a">are in violation of immigration law</a> – those kinds of laws have been passed in states like Texas and Arizona and were found to <a href="https://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-arizona-law-20160915-snap-story.html">violate federal law</a>. </p>
<p>This is because the federal government enforces immigration. The states cannot also <a href="https://cis.org/Arthur/States-Are-Utterly-Dependent-Feds-Secure-Border-Enforce-Immigration-Laws">enforce federal immigration law</a>. States can arrest people suspected of breaking state laws, but not federal immigration laws. </p>
<p>In the 2012 case of <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2011/11-182">Arizona v. the United States,</a> for example, Arizona tried to penalize noncitizens for working without federal work authorization. The state authorized law enforcement to arrest people suspected of being in violation of immigration law. And the court found that Arizona could not do anything that is within the jurisdiction of the federal government, or obstruct the federal government’s objectives when it comes to immigration.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210517/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jean Lantz Reisz does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Setting up buoys in a section of the Rio Grande is more likely to result in migrants seeking pathways elsewhere, rather than deterring migration altogether.Jean Lantz Reisz, Co-Director, USC Immigration Clinic and Adjunct Assistant Professor of Law, University of Southern CaliforniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2098842023-07-21T07:13:53Z2023-07-21T07:13:53ZZimbabwean migrants: South Africa’s anti-immigrant sentiments are hindering policy reform<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538522/original/file-20230720-17-fba5cm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Effective African economic development depends on economic integration and free movement of people.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">GettyImages</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The South African Minister of Home Affairs, Aaron Motsoaledi, recently <a href="http://www.saflii.org/za/cases/ZAGPPHC/2023/490.pdf">lost a court case</a> that anyone could have anticipated was unwinnable. He probably expected to lose it too. He lost it on humanitarian and technical grounds. It prevents him from terminating the South African government’s concession to refugees from neighbouring Zimbabwe nearly fifteen years ago.</p>
<p>In April 2009, South Africa provided legalised shelter for Zimbabweans hit by economic and political crisis in their country across the Limpopo River. The <a href="http://www.dha.gov.za/index.php/statements-speeches/506-remarks-by-minister-malusi-gigaba-on-the-announcement-of-the-zimbabwean-special-dispensation-permit-in-pretoria-12-august-2014">Zimbabwe Dispensation Project</a> was the first form of a policy to temporarily accommodate Zimbabwean refugees. It became the Zimbabwean Special permit in 2014 and after 2017 it was known as the <a href="http://www.dha.gov.za/index.php/immigration-services/gazetted-extension-of-zep">Zimbabwe Exemption Permit</a>. Zimbabweans who had arrived during the crisis period of 2008-09 had full freedoms, but no rights to citizenship even for their children, for as long as the permits allowed.</p>
<p>In 2021, Home Affairs decided to end the special dispensation after a period of grace lasting till the end of 2022 to allow Zimbabweans to regularize their circumstances. Some were expected to be able to obtain residence and work rights based on their skills and occupations, and others were to return to Zimbabwe. The number of people affected by the ruling is estimated at around 178 000 who remained on their ZE permits. Children born in South Africa were expected and allowed to obtain Zimbabwean citizenship and were not allowed South African citizenship.</p>
<p>178 000 is a relatively small number compared with the total number of immigrants in South Africa, <a href="https://africacheck.org/fact-checks/spotchecks/are-there-15-million-undocumented-immigrants-living-south-africa-no-another">estimated at 3.96 million by StatsSA</a>. Many of the registered Zimbabweans are educated and skilled. Most have been successfully living in South Africa for 15 years. Why not simply regularize all the law-abiding Zimbabweans living under the permit?</p>
<p>Elsewhere in Africa and <a href="https://heinonline.org/HOL/Page?handle=hein.journals/ejml16&div=4&g_sent=1&casa_token=&collection=journals">around the world </a> larger numbers of irregular migrants have been regularised. In South Africa, <a href="https://scholars.wlu.ca/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1063&context=samp">Mozambican refugees</a> were regularized after the end of the Mozambican civil war. But the current <a href="https://issafrica.org/iss-today/anti-foreigner-sentiment-wont-solve-south-africas-labour-woes">anti-migrant sentiment</a> in South Africa made such a course difficult for the Minister of Home Affairs. This is why he opposed a court action he pretty much knew he would lose.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-free-movement-of-people-is-an-au-ambition-whats-standing-in-its-way-100409">The free movement of people is an AU ambition: what's standing in its way</a>
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<p>I have been studying migration policy on the continent, including the African Union’s adoption of a protocol on the free movement of people in 2018 which <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-free-movement-of-people-is-an-au-ambition-whats-standing-in-its-way-100409">I have argued</a> could facilitate economic growth and the trade integration. </p>
<p>Migration policy in South Africa seems constantly in flux. Most of the <a href="http://www.dha.gov.za/WhitePaperonInternationalMigration-20170602.pdf">immigration policy white paper</a> passed by cabinet in 2017 has never been implemented. Policy documents and a <a href="https://pmg.org.za/call-for-comment/1138/">law amendment on labour migration</a> published a year and a half ago are still in limbo. A promised new white paper on immigration has not yet been published. Some of the proposals could have simplified migration rules such as a proposal to replace the critical skills list with a points system, while others such as the quota system proposed in the draft law would have added further complexities.</p>
<p>Will any reforms be implemented before the general election of 2024? Probably not. This is the fundamental problem. Immigration policy is so highly politicised that the government seems afraid to move. <a href="https://nsi.org.za/projects/migration-governance-reform/">Our programme of research </a> seeks to show how South Africa could learn positive lessons on migration reform from other African countries and elsewhere. </p>
<h2>Hostility to migration</h2>
<p>While politicians <a href="https://www.hrw.org/legacy/reports98/sareport/Adv5a.htm">frequently voice sentiments </a> hostile to migration and migrants, sensible policies in practice and on the table are shrouded in camouflage and occasionally sneaked through. One example is the <a href="https://www.southafrica-usa.net/homeaffairs/permit_corporate.htm">corporate labour permit</a>, another is the rising number of <a href="http://www.dha.gov.za/index.php/immigration-services/exempt-countries">African countries with visa-free access to South Africa</a>. Access to skilled employees needed from beyond our borders is being simplified. Reforms will be hidden behind a veil of hostility to foreigners.</p>
<p>This is hardly unique to South Africa. In the UK, while the government threatens to deport illegal migrants to Rwanda and stakes its fate on “stopping the boats” in deference to its political base, “long-term immigration … <a href="https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2023/05/25/international-migration-hits-new-high-in-2022-but-there-are-signs-of-change/">rose to 1.2 million</a> for the year ending December 2022, an increase of 221,000 from the previous year”.</p>
<p>Similarly, Georgia Meloni who was elected Prime Minister of Italy at least in part for her anti-immigrant views, has set aside work permits for 425 000 non-EU migrants to immigrate into Italy up to 2025. Laura Boldrini, of the centre-left Democratic Party, <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/07/08/italy-grants-work-permits-425k-non-eu-migrant-workers/">said the high quotas</a> were a surrender and </p>
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<p>a bitter dose of reality for those who have built their political careers by demonising immigration as a national security threat.</p>
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<p><a href="https://www.guilford.com/books/The-Age-of-Migration/Haas-Castles-Miller/9781462542895">A textbook on migration</a> warns us, when it comes to migration policies, “not to equate political rhetoric with policy practice”. It is not surprising that in many countries migration policies seem confused or incomprehensible. Migration policy reform seems elusive in the context of such opacity.</p>
<p>And yet, effective African economic development depends on economic integration. Most countries are pretty small, especially economically, and effective integration entails the movement of persons across borders without excessive hindrances.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/free-movement-of-people-across-africa-regions-are-showing-how-it-can-work-197199">Free movement of people across Africa: regions are showing how it can work</a>
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<p>Not all African governments, even of richer countries, have been as hesitant as South Africa to reform migration policies. Members of both the East African Community and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) have made greater progress than the regions at the southern and northern ends of the continent. Countries in Africa can learn not only from experiences in the EU or in South America, but also from other African countries and regions.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://nsi.org.za/about/">New South Institute</a> is running the <a href="https://nsi.org.za/projects/migration-governance-reform/">Migration Governance Reform in Africa</a> project, or MIGRA. The rationale and framework for the MIGRA project are set out in <a href="https://nsi.org.za/publications/migration-governance-reform-first-report/">our new working paper </a>.</p>
<p>We are studying migration policy and practice in four African countries, South Africa, Mozambique, Kenya and Nigeria, and in four regional organisations, <a href="https://www.sadc.int/">SADC</a>, <a href="https://www.eac.int/">the EAC</a>, <a href="https://ecowas.int/">ECOWAS</a> and the African Union. We believe that countries and regions in Africa can learn as much from each other as they can from experiences elsewhere. Papers on these eight cases will be published over the next year or so, as they are completed, and we will also be preparing other forms of media to engage in conversation with the wider public as well as with policymakers.</p>
<p><a href="https://nsi.org.za/publications/migration-governance-reform-first-report/">The work we have already done </a> shows us some exciting examples of reform on the African continent. In east and west Africa there are many ways to allow cross border migrants access for different periods and reasons. Even in southern Africa the recent <a href="https://www.tralac.org/blog/article/15940-botswana-and-namibia-concluded-an-agreement-on-the-movement-of-persons.html">agreement between Namibia and Botswana on travel</a> by citizens of the two countries across their common border with identity documents alone shows what progress is possible. Visa-free travel is proliferating in Africa, as the recent bilateral agreement between South Africa and Kenya shows. There are many more examples.</p>
<p>Our project grows as much out of optimism about recent developments on migration governance around the African continent, as from the frustration and confusion about migration policy in many places. Perhaps it will make a small contribution to improving the practice, and maybe even the political rhetoric. And perhaps the South African cabinet will decide to grant the Zimbabwean exemption permit holders and their children <a href="https://scholars.wlu.ca/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1063&context=samp">the same kind of amnesty that was offered to 220 000 Mozambican refugees</a> in December 1996.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209884/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alan Hirsch is Leader of the Migration Governance Reform Program of the New South Institute; Emeritus Professor of Development Policy and Practice at the Nelson Mandela School of Public Governance, University of Cape Town; and Research Associate at School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London.</span></em></p>Immigration policy is so highly politicised that the South African government seems afraid to move.Alan Hirsch, Research Fellow New South Institute, Emeritus Professor at The Nelson Mandela School of Public Governance, University of Cape TownLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2089112023-07-18T12:29:26Z2023-07-18T12:29:26ZChina needs immigrants<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537900/original/file-20230717-245914-r0vcf2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=14%2C44%2C4977%2C3263&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Too few children means China needs to look outside the country for new blood.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/little-girl-walk-with-her-parents-on-the-city-street-in-news-photo/958880156?adppopup=true">Zhang Peng/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>China is entering a <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-chinas-shrinking-population-is-a-big-deal-counting-the-social-economic-and-political-costs-of-an-aging-smaller-society-198056">severe demographic crisis</a>. </p>
<p>For several centuries, the Asian nation has been the most populous country in the world. But it is now shrinking. In 2022, the country registered <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/16/business/china-birth-rate.html">more deaths than births</a>, and it will soon be surpassed by India in total population size – indeed, many demographers <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/24/india-overtakes-china-to-become-worlds-most-populous-country">believe this has already occurred</a>.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=jAfhO2YAAAAJ&hl=en">a scholar who has studied</a> China’s demography for almost 40 years, I know the likelihood is this falling population will lead to an <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-chinas-shrinking-population-is-a-big-deal-counting-the-social-economic-and-political-costs-of-an-aging-smaller-society-198056">economic slowdown</a>, with a greater number of dependents and fewer workers to support them. Yet attempts to reverse the trend through policy that <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/china-comes-up-with-20-recommendations-to-encourage-families-to-have-more-children-572313">encourages couples to have more children</a> have proved ineffective. China will need to turn to other measures to solve its population problem. In short, China needs immigrants.</p>
<h2>More babies or more immigrants?</h2>
<p>The scale of the demographic task facing policymakers in Beijing is vast.</p>
<p>In 2022, the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/01/17/1149453055/china-records-1st-population-fall-in-decades-as-births-drop">Chinese government reported</a> 10.41 million deaths in the country and 9.56 million births. This was the first time China has seen more annual deaths than births since the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/volokh-conspiracy/wp/2016/08/03/giving-historys-greatest-mass-murderer-his-due/">Great Leap Forward</a> of 1958 to 1962 – during which a severe famine resulting from bad economic policies contributed to 30 million to 40 million more deaths than would have been expected.</p>
<p>If present trends continue, China is expected to lose more than a third of its 1.4 billion population. Some projections have the country dropping to a <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/7/15/population-in-more-than-20-countries-to-halve-by-2100-study">population of 800 million by the year 2100</a>.</p>
<p><iframe id="4GUP2" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/4GUP2/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>The impact of this change will be felt across Chinese society. The country is already aging. The <a href="https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/median-age-china-surpassed-united-states">median age in China is now 38</a> compared to 28 just two decades ago. In contrast, India today has <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/india-population/">a median age of 28</a>. People of age 65 and over <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/02/09/key-facts-as-india-surpasses-china-as-the-worlds-most-populous-country/">now comprise 14% of China’s population</a> compared to 7% of India’s.</p>
<p>Once a nation’s population is in decline, there are only two ways to reverse the trend: encourage people to have more children or get people from outside the country to move in.</p>
<p>Many Chinese leaders believe that they can increase China’s population by changing the nation’s fertility policies. In 2015, the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/29/china-abandons-one-child-policy">government abandoned the one-child policy</a>, permitting all couples in China to have two children. In 2021, the two-child policy was abandoned <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/31/world/asia/china-three-child-policy.html">in favor of a three-child policy</a>. The hope was these changes would result in sizable increases in the national fertility rate, which now stands at 1.2 – well below the level of 2.1 children per woman of childbearing age that is needed to replace the population. </p>
<p>But these policy changes have not led to fertility increases in China, and there is little reason to think they will result in any dramatic uptick in the years ahead. This is because most of China’s fertility reduction, especially since the 1990s, has been voluntary and more a result of modernization than fertility control policies. Chinese couples are having fewer children <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/6/9/despite-three-child-policy-many-in-china-cant-afford-more-kids">due to the higher living costs and educational expenses</a> involved in having more than one child.</p>
<h2>Entering the ‘low fertility trap’</h2>
<p>The total fertility rate in China might go up over the next decade by 0.1 or 0.2 at best, in my opinion. But demographers largely agree that it will never go up by 1.0 or 2.0 – the kind of increase needed if China is to reach the replacement level.</p>
<p>And then there is what demographers refer to as the “<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/17/europe/italy-record-low-birth-rate-intl-cmd/index.html">low fertility trap</a>.” This hypothesis, advanced by demographers in the early 2000s, holds that once a country’s fertility rate drops below 1.5 or 1.4 – and China’s is now at 1.2 – it is very difficult to increase it by a significant amount. The argument goes that fertility declines to these low levels are largely the result of changes in living standards and increasing opportunities for women.</p>
<p>As a result, it is most unlikely that the three-child policy will have any influence at all on raising the fertility rate.</p>
<p>Which leaves immigration. China right now has few residents who were born in a foreign country – there are <a href="https://www.economist.com/china/2023/05/04/china-needs-foreign-workers-so-why-wont-it-embrace-immigration">now only around 1 million foreign-born residents</a> in China, or less than 0.1% of the population.</p>
<p>In fact, China has the smallest number of international migrants of <a href="https://qz.com/1163632/china-still-has-the-smallest-share-of-incoming-migrants-in-the-world">any major country in the world</a>. Compare its 0.1% of immigrants with <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/15/us/where-immigrants-come-from-cec/index.html">near 14% in the U.S.</a> and <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/germany-immigrants-made-up-over-18-of-2022-population/a-65383249">18% in Germany</a>. Even Japan and South Korea – which historically have not been high-immigration countries – have higher percentages of foreign-born population, <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/06/23/japan-immigration-policy-xenophobia-migration/">2% in Japan</a> and <a href="https://inmykorea.com/how-many-foreigners-in-korea/#:%7E:text=Currently%2C%20foreign%20residents%20make%20up,increase%20to%204.3%25%20by%202040.">3% in South Korea</a>.</p>
<p>It isn’t just the low numbers of immigrants that is a problem. China also faces the problem of growing numbers of its population moving to other countries, including the U.S. In 2017, for example, an <a href="https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/migration/publications/migrationreport/docs/MigrationReport2017_Highlights.pdf">estimated 10 million people moved from China</a> to live and work in other countries.</p>
<h2>Overcoming racial purity</h2>
<p>China must change its immigration policies if it is to reverse its demographic trend. </p>
<p>Currently, foreign-born people cannot attain Chinese citizenship unless they are children of Chinese nationals. Also, foreigners are only allowed to purchase one piece of property in China, and it must be their residence.</p>
<p>But changing immigration policy will likely require a change in mindset. </p>
<p>In a recent story in The Economist, the <a href="https://www.economist.com/china/2023/05/04/china-needs-foreign-workers-so-why-wont-it-embrace-immigration">reporter notes that Chinese</a> “officials boast of a single Chinese bloodline dating back thousands of years.” And that taps into a seemingly <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2020/04/racism-is-alive-and-well-in-china/">deep-rooted belief in racial purity</a> held by <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/11/world/asia/china-sperm-communist-party.html">many leaders in</a> the Chinese Communist Party. In 2017, Chinese President Xi Jinping <a href="https://academic.oup.com/isagsq/article/2/4/ksac070/6947853">told Donald Trump</a>, then America’s president: “We people are the original people, black hair, yellow skin, inherited onwards. We call ourselves the descendants of the dragon.”</p>
<p>The best way to maintain this racial purity, <a href="https://www.sixthtone.com/news/1005267">many in China believe</a>, is to limit or prohibit migration into China.</p>
<p>But relaxing immigration policy will not only boost numbers, it will also offset any drop in productivity caused by an aging population. Immigrants are typically of prime working age and <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/immigrants-outperform-native-born-americans-two-key-measures-financial-success-n1020291">very productive</a>; they also tend to <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2016/10/26/5-facts-about-immigrant-mothers-and-u-s-fertility-trends/">have more babies</a> than native-born residents.</p>
<p>The U.S. and many European countries have relied for decades on international migration to <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2017/03/08/immigration-projected-to-drive-growth-in-u-s-working-age-population-through-at-least-2035/">bolster their working-age population</a>. For immigration to have any reasonable impacts in China, the numbers of people coming into China will need to increase tremendously in the next decade or so – to around 50 million, perhaps higher. Otherwise, in the coming decades, China’s demographic destiny will be one of population losses every year, with more deaths than births, and the country will soon have one of the oldest populations in the world.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208911/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dudley L. Poston Jr. does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Chinese politicians have looked toward policies to encourage couples to have more children to offset population decline. It hasn’t worked.Dudley L. Poston Jr., Professor of Sociology, Texas A&M UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2060542023-06-29T20:32:52Z2023-06-29T20:32:52ZAs Canada welcomes historic numbers of immigrants, how can communities be more welcoming?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533566/original/file-20230622-19-el147w.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=44%2C22%2C4947%2C3637&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Canada is generally viewed positively for its immigration policies, but more can be done to welcome those seeking to make Canada their home. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Canada’s population has officially surpassed <a href="https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/subjects-start/population_and_demography/40-million">40 million people</a>, and immigration has significantly contributed to reaching this milestone. In 2021, immigrants made up <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/221026/dq221026a-eng.htm">almost one-quarter</a> of the Canadian population.</p>
<p>Globally, Canadians are viewed as very welcoming of immigrants. In 2019, the country placed first in <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/320669/canada-migrants-sixth-place.aspx">Gallup’s Migration Acceptance Index</a>. Canada has a dynamic immigration system that is <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-canadas-immigration-policy">celebrated as a model</a> for other countries.</p>
<p>Its immigration system <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/11/14/canada-immigration-model-united-states/">responds to the country’s economic needs</a>, with immigration contributing to almost <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/2022/11/an-immigration-plan-to-grow-the-economy.html">100 per cent of Canada’s labour force growth</a>. It is also recognized as a <a href="https://www.unhcr.ca/news/as-decade-long-rise-in-global-displacement-hits-another-record-canada-continues-as-world-leader-in-refugee-resettlement-unhcr-report-shows/">world leader in refugee resettlement</a>. This includes a large <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/refugees/help-outside-canada/private-sponsorship-program.html">private sponsorship program</a> in which groups of Canadians can sponsor refugees. </p>
<h2>Immigrants face challenges</h2>
<p>Despite receiving international praise, Canada’s immigration system is not without criticism. Immigrants often face challenges, including <a href="https://doi.org/10.1353/ces.2022.0010">barriers to finding jobs</a> that make use of their <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/stats-can-education-census-1.6666984">skills and qualifications</a>. Research also suggests immigrants face discrimination in a variety of domains, such as when accessing <a href="https://doi.org/10.26522/ssj.v15i1.2239">housing</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/17549175.2020.1801488">education</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10903-012-9640-4">health care</a>. </p>
<p>Canada is in the midst of the largest intake of immigrants in its history as the government looks to <a href="https://rsc-src.ca/sites/default/files/Immigration%20PB_EN.pdf">rebuild the economy and labour force</a> following the COVID-19 pandemic. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533362/original/file-20230622-21-3vzgdi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="a sign at an airport that reads: Canada arrivals" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533362/original/file-20230622-21-3vzgdi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533362/original/file-20230622-21-3vzgdi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533362/original/file-20230622-21-3vzgdi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533362/original/file-20230622-21-3vzgdi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533362/original/file-20230622-21-3vzgdi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533362/original/file-20230622-21-3vzgdi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533362/original/file-20230622-21-3vzgdi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Canada’s immigration system is not without criticism and immigrants often face challenges.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The federal government has <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/notices/supplementary-immigration-levels-2023-2025.html">announced plans</a> to admit 465,000 permanent residents in 2023, 485,000 in 2024, and 500,000 in 2025.</p>
<p>At this critical time, the success of Canada’s immigration program depends on actively welcoming immigrants and supporting their settlement and integration into <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-smaller-cities-can-integrate-newcomers-into-their-labour-markets-205460">communities of all sizes</a>. </p>
<p>In this context, now is the time to ask: How can Canada create more welcoming communities for immigrants? </p>
<h2>What makes a community welcoming for immigrants?</h2>
<p>We define a <a href="http://p2pcanada.ca/wp-content/blogs.dir/1/files/2023/03/Welcoming-Toolkit-I-Measuring-Welcoming-Communities.pdf">welcoming community</a> as a joint effort by all members of a community to design and maintain a place where immigrants feel they belong. It is a place that supports immigrants’ economic, social, cultural, civic and political integration. </p>
<p>A welcoming community has structures and practices in place to meet the needs and promote the inclusion of immigrants in all aspects of life. It must routinely measure and evaluate these initiatives to ensure their effectiveness.</p>
<p>In our <a href="http://p2pcanada.ca/library/measuring-welcoming-communities-a-toolkit-for-communities-and-those-who-support-them/">recent work</a> with the Pathways to Prosperity Partnership, we identify and explain the key characteristics of welcoming communities.</p>
<p>To determine these characteristics, we polled 259 immigration experts from the government, the settlement sector and academia. We identified 19 key characteristics of welcoming communities and placed them in order of importance based on input from respondents. </p>
<p>These five characteristics were deemed most important: </p>
<ol>
<li><p>Access to affordable, adequate and suitable housing</p></li>
<li><p>Employment and entrepreneurship opportunities</p></li>
<li><p>Access to suitable health care, including mental health care</p></li>
<li><p>Positive attitudes towards immigrants of all racial, cultural, and religious backgrounds</p></li>
<li><p>Access to immigrant-serving agencies that meet immigrants’ needs</p></li>
</ol>
<p>Characteristics that make communities welcoming do not operate alone. They interact and reinforce each other. For example, the location of affordable housing affects access to immigrant-serving agencies and employment opportunities. Likewise, employment and entrepreneurship opportunities affect whether immigrants can afford suitable housing. </p>
<p>It is also critical for communities to consider the barriers faced by immigrants who are racialized, women, refugees, <a href="https://www.rescue.org/uk/article/challenges-faced-when-youre-lgbtqi-refugee">2SLGBTQI+</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/09687599.2016.1200460">people with disabilities</a>, youth, seniors and those who have experienced trauma.</p>
<h2>How to measure the characteristics that make a community welcoming</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532481/original/file-20230617-29-nep0oy.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman wearing a face mask carrying a sign that reads: Welcome to Canada." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532481/original/file-20230617-29-nep0oy.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532481/original/file-20230617-29-nep0oy.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=690&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532481/original/file-20230617-29-nep0oy.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=690&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532481/original/file-20230617-29-nep0oy.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=690&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532481/original/file-20230617-29-nep0oy.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=868&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532481/original/file-20230617-29-nep0oy.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=868&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532481/original/file-20230617-29-nep0oy.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=868&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A woman welcomes Ukrainians fleeing the ongoing war in Ukraine at Pierre Elliott Trudeau International Airport in Montréal.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Graham Hughes</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We created a set of indicators for each of the characteristics of a welcoming community. Communities can use these indicators to evaluate how well they perform on each characteristic. They can also use these indicators to determine whether strategies they implement to be more welcoming are effective. </p>
<p>One of the key characteristics of a welcoming community is employment and entrepreneurship opportunities. An important indicator here is the rate of employment among working-age immigrants. </p>
<p>Communities must make meaningful comparisons (whether across time, with other communities or to non-immigrants) in order to interpret each indicator. For example, how do immigrants’ employment rates compare to those of non-immigrants?</p>
<p>Communities must also make an effort to understand what accounts for the current indicator levels within their community. For example, employment opportunities for immigrants will be more readily available at times of low unemployment rates, <a href="https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/subjects-start/labour_">as is currently the case</a>.</p>
<p>Communities in Canada cannot be complacent about how they welcome newcomers. Policymakers at all levels of government, service providers and the general public all have an important role to play. </p>
<p>There are many ways people can make their communities more welcoming. One key way to start is by learning how <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/campaigns/immigration-matters/system.html">Canada’s immigration system works</a>. </p>
<p>There are also lots of opportunities to volunteer with an <a href="https://ircc.canada.ca/english/newcomers/services/index.asp#table1caption">immigrant-serving agency near you</a>. You can even join a <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/campaigns/canada-connects.html">formal program</a> that matches longtime community members with newcomers.</p>
<p>Together we can translate positive attitudes into positive action to create and maintain fully welcoming communities. Actively engaging in actions to make communities more welcoming is critical to the success of Canada’s immigration program.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206054/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Leah Hamilton receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Awish Aslam has previously been funded by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Victoria Esses receives funding from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, and has previously been funded by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Priscila Ribeiro Prado Barros does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>To make a success of Canada’s immigration targets, we must all work to make communities more welcoming to newcomers.Leah Hamilton, Professor & Chair, Department of General Management & Human Resources, Mount Royal UniversityAwish Aslam, PhD Candidate, Department of Sociology, Western UniversityPriscila Ribeiro Prado Barros, PhD Student, Department of Sociology, Western UniversityVictoria Esses, Director, Network for Economic and Social Trends (NEST); Co-Chair, Pathways to Prosperity Partnership, Western UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2059072023-06-08T12:33:47Z2023-06-08T12:33:47ZTitle 42 didn’t result in a surge of migration, after all – but border communities are still facing record-breaking migration<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530179/original/file-20230605-23-ozcthw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In an aerial image taken on May 12, 2023, a border wall and concertina wire barriers stand along the Rio Grande river between Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, left, and El Paso, Texas.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1254537935/photo/us-politics-mexico-latam-migration-title42.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=2_ghoyYPbouvXR0N3fNOR7chB1iDZhpuFE-Vi6H8AGg=">Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>U.S. <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/09/politics/title-42-ending-whats-next-explainer-cec/index.html#:%7E:text=Officials%20predict%20that%20lifting%20Title,are%20desperate%20and%20losing%20patience.">government officials</a> and media alike made <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/08/briefing/migrants-southern-border-surge-title-42.html">widespread predictions</a> that there would be a surge of migration across the U.S.-Mexico border in May 2023. </p>
<p>That’s when the U.S. lifted an emergency health policy called <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/what-is-title-42-and-what-does-it-mean-for-immigration-at-the-southern-border">Title 42</a> that allowed the government to turn away migrants at the border to prevent the spread of COVID-19. </p>
<p><a href="https://apnews.com/article/immigration-biden-border-title-42-mexico-asylum-be4e0b15b27adb9bede87b9bbefb798d">Title 42 ended in May 2023</a>, but the number of migrants <a href="https://app.powerbigov.us/view?r=eyJrIjoiNTlmOTY0ZDQtY2M0OS00OTY3LTk4MWQtMTVhYTJmZWIwMzQxIiwidCI6IjY2YThkY2Y5LWVkNzUtNGE2Zi04OGUwLTUxMGRmOWJkZjJhOSJ9">crossing into the border city of El Paso</a> has actually decreased since then. </p>
<p>Even without a recent surge related to Title 42, however, migration across the U.S-Mexico border continues to trend upward and remains at <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/01/13/monthly-encounters-with-migrants-at-u-s-mexico-border-remain-near-record-highs/">record-breaking levels</a>. Compared with the 16,182 migrants that U.S. Customs and Border Protection encountered in April 2020, there were 206,239 encounters in November 2022. </p>
<p>For the past four years, we have <a href="https://www.storymodelers.org/absorptivecapacity">researched host communities</a> around the world that <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-ukrainian-refugee-crisis-could-last-years-but-host-communities-might-not-be-prepared-178482">receive sudden arrivals of a large group of migrants</a>. </p>
<p>In El Paso, Texas, our interviews with government agencies, migrant aid organizations and residents in 2019 and 2022 highlighted what the U.S. southern border region shares with other migrant host communities facing <a href="https://worldmigrationreport.iom.int/wmr-2022-interactive/">unprecedented levels of migration</a> and <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/news/unhcr-global-displacement-hits-another-record-capping-decade-long-rising-trend">displacement</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
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<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Border Patrol agents search immigrants at the U.S.-Mexico border in El Paso, Texas, shortly after Title 42 ended in May 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1489491574/photo/pandemic-era-border-policy-title-42-expires.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=R_eZlf0eA6EXKciWmmEqDvJwI0Dn_DN4iuF1hWh__TI=">John Moore/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The Borderlands</h2>
<p>Communities along the U.S.-Mexico border – sometimes called the Borderlands – have a long history serving as a <a href="https://read.dukeupress.edu/hahr/article/62/2/289/149177/Desert-Immigrants-The-Mexicans-of-El-Paso-1880">corridor for migration</a>. </p>
<p>El Paso even carries a name that is rooted in migration, coming from “el paso del norte,” which means “the passage to the north” in Spanish. </p>
<p>El Paso and Juarez, Mexico, are <a href="https://www.esa.int/ESA_Multimedia/Images/2014/05/Ciudad_Juarez_and_El_Paso#:%7E:text=The%20Mexican%2DAmerican%20border%20separates,at%20around%20400%20km%20above">divided only by the Rio Grande River</a> and a <a href="https://kvia.com/news/border/2021/01/05/federal-government-completes-131-miles-of-new-border-wall-in-el-paso-sector/">border wall</a>. They were once united as one city until international boundaries were drawn <a href="https://www.tshaonline.org/handbook/entries/el-paso-tx">in 1848</a>. </p>
<p>In the weeks <a href="https://www.dhs.gov/news/2023/01/05/dhs-continues-prepare-end-title-42-announces-new-border-enforcement-measures-and">leading up to the end</a> of Title 42, an <a href="https://www.ktsm.com/news/gov-of-chihuahua-35000-migrants-in-juarez-waiting-to-cross-to-the-u-s/">estimated 35,000 migrants were waiting in Juarez to cross</a> into El Paso. </p>
<p>U.S. Border Patrol agents generally work to <a href="https://www.cbp.gov/border-security/along-us-borders/overview">monitor and manage</a> goods and migration across the country’s border. They are also the ones who apprehend migrants and document their names and other personal information when they enter the U.S.</p>
<p>Typically, when U.S. border officials apprehend migrants crossing the border without documentation, they place them in detention centers. There, people can apply for asylum and await court dates to see if they qualify to stay in the U.S. – or they are deported back across the border.</p>
<p>In some cases, when there is a surge in migration, these detention centers – run by both the government and private companies – get full. So U.S. border officials sometimes <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/10/us/politics/title-42-border-history-immigration.html#:%7E:text=Whenever%20there%20is%20a%20surge,their%20day%20in%20immigration%20court.">release migrants into local communities</a> to await future court dates. </p>
<p>The U.S. Border Patrol released <a href="https://app.powerbigov.us/view?r=eyJrIjoiNTlmOTY0ZDQtY2M0OS00OTY3LTk4MWQtMTVhYTJmZWIwMzQxIiwidCI6IjY2YThkY2Y5LWVkNzUtNGE2Zi04OGUwLTUxMGRmOWJkZjJhOSJ9">over 13,000 migrants</a> into El Paso in May 2023. About half of those migrants arrived after Title 42 ended. </p>
<p>That number of migrants is similar to trends seen in recent years, and below several peaks in 2022. At the end of last year, El Paso received more than 10,000 migrants in one week.</p>
<p><iframe id="aTDB3" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/aTDB3/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Borderlands’ capacity depends on locals</h2>
<p>Our current research suggests that both real and anticipated increased migration can affect host communities in ways that aren’t captured by the national spotlight – but that still cause friction between host communities and migrants. </p>
<p>So far, El Paso has been able to largely avoid such tension because it has a strong network of local organizations that provide aid that allows migrants to get what they need and pass through the city quickly on their journey to their final destinations – often where friends and family are waiting to sponsor them. </p>
<p>While Border Patrol agents are tasked with apprehending and documenting migrants, it’s nongovernment <a href="https://www.elpasotexas.gov/migrant-crisis/donate/">community workers and volunteers</a> that generally help migrants get <a href="https://cbs4local.com/news/local/how-support-el-paso-texas-nonprofit-organizations-assisting-migrants-paso-del-norte-community-foundation-sacred-heart-church-rescue-mission-annunciation-house-el-pasoans-fighting-hunger-may-9-2023-title-42-immigration-us-mexico-border-donations-volunteer">food, shelter, water and health care</a>.</p>
<p>Those community networks include those who work in local hospitals, legal clinics and migrant shelters, typically providing services free of charge. </p>
<p>A legal advocacy team, for example, told us that its No. 1 goal is to get migrants out of detention and their legal cases processed outside of El Paso, <a href="https://trac.syr.edu/immigration/reports/670/">where the odds of being granted asylum tend to be higher</a>. </p>
<p>But the backlog of migrants risks overwhelming nonprofits’ abilities to respond, extending the time migrants are stuck in the area. That puts pressure on the local judicial system to process migrants, and the resulting buildup of migrants can create tension with host communities. </p>
<p>These workers see the impacts of migration on their communities firsthand – both the beneficial and the burdensome – that can often make or break a host communities’ willingness to continue welcoming migrants.</p>
<p>Volunteer support, public facilities and the amount of time it takes for the government to process migrants are all factors that could challenge border communities like El Paso if they are stretched thin and this process is interrupted. </p>
<p>Across host communities, such simple matters as overflowing public trash cans and overcrowded public transportation can be a <a href="https://digitalcommons.odu.edu/gpis_etds/121/">flashpoint for resentment</a> – these can be visual cues to local communities that the migration response is not being well managed by the government.</p>
<h2>Support is stretched thin</h2>
<p>Rising migration across the U.S. southern border <a href="https://www.cbp.gov/document/stats/southwest-land-border-encounters">over the past decade</a> means that health care and other forms of assistance on both sides of the border have been stretched thin for some time.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, cities like El Paso are dealing with compounding <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2022-07-28/staff-shortages-choking-u-s-health-care-system">national health care staffing shortages</a>.</p>
<p>That stress on the health care system could open the door for a deteriorating situation. Reports indicate that some <a href="https://www.medpagetoday.com/special-reports/exclusives/82203">Borderlands physicians struggle</a> to care for the volume of migrants in need of care – and to also respond to migrants’ complex, acute medical conditions, sometimes the result of their previous <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/inside-the-el-paso-medical-clinics-struggling-to-care-for-influx-of-migrants">inhumane and traumatic journeys</a>. </p>
<p>Physicians in El Paso have told us they were alarmed at patients arriving with life-threatening conditions that could have been treated had migrants received health care at earlier points. They expressed concern about infectious diseases spreading in <a href="https://www.ktsm.com/local/chickenpox-bed-bugs-reported-at-sacred-heart-in-south-el-paso-where-migrants-are-camped/">overcrowded centers and informal settlements</a>, migrants’ deteriorating mental health and their ability to get necessary medications.</p>
<p>In addition to medical professional shortages, it is difficult to recruit volunteers and continue to bring in enough donations to support migrant community work in El Paso <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-80387-2_21">over the long term</a>.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530177/original/file-20230605-23-zhhx2g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A boy and a woman holding his hand jump across a small river." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530177/original/file-20230605-23-zhhx2g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530177/original/file-20230605-23-zhhx2g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530177/original/file-20230605-23-zhhx2g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530177/original/file-20230605-23-zhhx2g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530177/original/file-20230605-23-zhhx2g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530177/original/file-20230605-23-zhhx2g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530177/original/file-20230605-23-zhhx2g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Immigrants cross the Rio Grande into El Paso, Texas, on May 11, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1489253193/photo/migrant-crossings-at-southern-border-increase-as-title-42-policy-expires.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=74AuYP0ZEuPyTYBKvpULj7_7dYoj8VmukKOtK8DiMWc=">John Moore/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Passing through El Paso</h2>
<p>Changes in migration numbers can quickly overwhelm or impede nonprofits’ abilities to respond, extending the time migrants are stuck in the area. When large numbers pass through, services are stretched thin. But when there are periods with less migration, services risk <a href="https://www.elpasotimes.com/story/news/2022/08/05/annunciation-house-casa-refugiado-migrant-shelter-immigration-border/65390027007/">shutting down for good</a>. That puts pressure on the local system to process migrants, and any buildup of migrants can create tension with transit communities like El Paso. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.unrefugees.org/news/protracted-refugee-situations-explained/">Rises in migration flows can end up lasting</a> a long time, with migrants <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/05/24/donors-are-cutting-food-aid-refugees-rwanda-thats-devastating-people-unable-work/">stuck for many years as they await processing</a> by government agencies or resettlement opportunities. But what the community of El Paso has done for decades, and what it will need to continue to do to avoid both humanitarian catastrophe and social friction, is to remain “the passage to the north,” keeping migrants moving toward friends and family that will support their stay in the U.S.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205907/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Erika Frydenlund receives funding from the Office of Naval Research through the Minerva Research Initiative (grant number N000141912624) ; none of the views reported in the study are those of the funding organization. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alexandra P Leader and Lydia Renee Cleveland do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>When host communities unexpectedly receive large numbers of migrants, the influx can tax local services – and relations between migrants and residents.Lydia Renee Cleveland, PhD Candidate, International Studies., Old Dominion UniversityAlexandra P Leader, Associate Professor of Pediatrics, Eastern Virginia Medical SchoolErika Frydenlund, Research Assistant Professor at the Virginia Modeling, Analysis and Simulation Center, Old Dominion UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2045832023-04-27T15:17:13Z2023-04-27T15:17:13ZIllegal migration bill: can the government ignore the European court of human rights?<p>The illegal migration bill has been <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/26/controversial-uk-asylum-bill-passes-third-reading-in-commons">approved by MPs</a> and now moves to the House of Lords. The controversial bill would make it so that anyone who arrives in the UK irregularly (for example, by small boat) can be removed to their country of origin or a third country (for example, Rwanda). </p>
<p>The bill passed the Commons with a number of amendments, including one that allows the government to disregard “interim measures” issued by the European court of human rights. </p>
<p>The court typically uses <a href="https://echr.coe.int/documents/fs_interim_measures_eng.pdf">interim measures</a> to temporarily suspend an expulsion or extradition of an asylum seeker until their case can be properly heard by the court. These measures are used sparingly, and when the court suspects that sending someone to a particular country could risk violating their right to life, or put them in danger of torture or inhumane treatment. They are not the final say in a particular case – they just ensure that the court has a chance to consider all the evidence before someone is removed.</p>
<p>It is this sort of measure that <a href="https://theconversation.com/rwanda-deportations-what-is-the-european-court-of-human-rights-and-why-did-it-stop-the-uk-flight-from-taking-off-185143">blocked the first deportation flight</a> to Rwanda from taking off in June 2022. </p>
<p>If the bill becomes law in its current form, the UK would be the only country in Europe that legally gives ministers permission to disregard the legally binding order of the European court of human rights.</p>
<p>According to the court’s rule 39, interim measures <a href="https://www.echr.coe.int/documents/pd_interim_measures_intro_eng.pdf">can be used</a> in cases where the victim is facing an imminent and serious threat to their human rights. For instance, the court can ask a state to transfer a prisoner from a prison hospital to the civil one if they cannot be treated properly in the former. Or, to order a state not to discontinue medical treatment if it might violate a patient’s right to life. </p>
<p>The most widespread use of interim measures is in immigration cases. The court can temporarily prevent a migrant from being deported while deciding whether the deportation complies with human rights. If the court finds that the deportation is legal, the interim measures will be lifted and the applicant can be deported. </p>
<p>However, if the court decides that the applicant should not be deported, interim measures ensure that this can actually be carried out – if someone is deported to a country where they face threat of harm, it could be difficult to bring them back. </p>
<p>The court has ruled that failure to comply with <a href="https://hudoc.echr.coe.int/eng?i=001-68183">interim measures</a> violates a state’s obligations under the European convention on human rights (and therefore, international law). The convention, to which the UK is a party, states in Article 34 that parties must ensure the court can effectively deal with applications from alleged victims of human rights violations. Disregarding interim measures would disrupt this.</p>
<h2>Complying with the court</h2>
<p>Despite regular <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11703793/We-need-ditch-ECHR-tackle-Channel-migrants-crisis-Brexit-backing-MPs-say.html">criticism of the European court of human rights</a>, the UK has a good record of compliance with the court’s interim measures and final judgments. </p>
<p>Only once has it been condemned for failure to follow an interim measure. In a 2010 <a href="https://hudoc.echr.coe.int/eng?i=001-97575">case</a>, two alleged terrorists arrested by UK troops in Iraq were transferred to the Iraqi authorities despite a court-ordered interim measure preventing it. However, in this case, the government argued that there was no objective opportunity for them to comply. The amendments in the illegal migration bill would give power to the minister to disregard international law by setting aside the court’s interim measures.</p>
<p>More generally, interim measures are very well complied with. To keep compliance high, the court uses them rarely and only when it is strictly necessary. There are <a href="https://hudoc.echr.coe.int/eng#%7B%22documentcollectionid2%22:%5B%22GRANDCHAMBER%22,%22CHAMBER%22%5D%7D">fewer than 50 cases</a> where the court found a state violated the convention by failing to comply with an interim measure. </p>
<p>Russia, which was <a href="https://www.coe.int/en/web/portal/-/the-russian-federation-is-excluded-from-the-council-of-europe">recently expelled</a> from the Council of Europe, is still the leader in this unfortunate ranking, with around 20 judgments delivered against it. Although Russia has regularly failed to comply with interim measures, this practice isn’t part of Russian legislation.</p>
<p>There are some notable instances of compliance with interim measures even in Russia. For instance, when opposition leader Alexei Navalny <a href="https://ukhumanrightsblog.com/2020/08/24/alexei-navalny-evacuated-to-germany-european-court-of-human-rights-orders-interim-measures-against-russia/">was poisoned</a>, the European court of human rights ordered Russian authorities to transfer him to Germany for medical treatment, which they did. </p>
<p>Generally, states take interim measures seriously, and even in cases of failure to comply, usually argue in court that they could not enforce them due to some objective reason. </p>
<h2>Can they do that?</h2>
<p>Put simply, states cannot just disregard valid and ongoing international obligations, such as the UK’s obligations under the European convention on human rights.</p>
<p>However, sometimes states do that. The example of Russia again comes to mind, when its parliament ruled that in certain circumstances the Russian Constitutional Court can set aside the judgments of the European court of human rights. This decision was widely criticised by <a href="https://www.echrblog.com/2016/04/the-russian-response-to-prisoner-voting.html">academics</a>, <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2020/06/europerussia-venice-commission-denounces-putin-constitutional-amendments-which-avoid-execution-of-ecthr-rulings/">and international human rights organisations</a>.</p>
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<img alt="Home Secretary Suella Braverman walking outdoors in front of a black car, holding a red minister's folder under her arm" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523207/original/file-20230427-681-mzys49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523207/original/file-20230427-681-mzys49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523207/original/file-20230427-681-mzys49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523207/original/file-20230427-681-mzys49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523207/original/file-20230427-681-mzys49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523207/original/file-20230427-681-mzys49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523207/original/file-20230427-681-mzys49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The law would allow ministers to ignore the European court of human rights’ interim measures.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/london-united-kingdom-november-22-2022-2285216867">ITS/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>The European court of human rights is part of an international judicial system that only works if all parties agree and comply. According to the <a href="https://legal.un.org/ilc/texts/instruments/english/conventions/1_1_1969.pdf">Vienna convention on the law of treaties</a> states cannot use their domestic laws to avoid international treaty obligations. This is exactly what the illegal migration bill now does. </p>
<p>The fact that interim measures are usually complied with shows that they are a respected tool that allows the court to effectively deal with important cases of human rights. They are temporary and can be lifted when a judgment is delivered, but still hold states to binding international obligations. Adopting a legal clause that allows the government to ignore such obligations is a very dangerous precedent that could easily backfire, for example, if the court were to issue interim measures in respect to another member state that the UK government would be in favour of.</p>
<p>To use the football metaphor, imagine a team in the English Premier League suddenly decides not to abide by the offside rule, and introduces this in their team’s statute. This would not work in a match, and the team’s reputation would suffer so much that it would have much less of a say if, for example, a rival team decided to allow players to use their hands.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204583/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kanstantsin Dzehtsiarou does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The European court has ruled that interim measures are legally binding under international law.Kanstantsin Dzehtsiarou, Professor in Human Rights Law, University of LiverpoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2013902023-03-09T05:05:23Z2023-03-09T05:05:23ZUK moves to copy Australia’s cruel asylum-seeker policy – and it will have the same heavy human toll<p>The United Kingdom’s <a href="https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/3429">Illegal Migration Bill</a>, introduced in the House of Commons this week, will look very familiar to Australians.</p>
<p>If passed, the bill would see asylum seekers who arrive in the UK without a visa deemed “illegal” and prohibited from applying for protection under the refugee system. Any claim for protection will be deemed “inadmissible”, and anyone arriving “illegally” will be removed to their home country or a so-called “safe” third country. </p>
<p>The bill also grants enhanced detention powers to the government while removal arrangements are under way. In other words, it lifts directly from the Australian handbook when it comes to punitive refugee policy, including the potentially devastating human impact and disregard for human rights.</p>
<p>The similarities extend to political spin as well as policy. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has firmly backed the bill, vowing this week to “<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-64881908">fight</a>” for the legislation. He made his address behind a lectern emblazoned with the slogan “stop the boats” – the same three-word slogan that helped former Australian Liberal Prime Minister Tony Abbott win the 2013 federal election, and launched a particularly dark chapter in refugee policy in Australia.</p>
<p>While the UK government notes that irregular migrant arrivals have “<a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/irregular-migration-to-the-uk-year-ending-december-2022/irregular-migration-to-the-uk-year-ending-december-2022#how-many-migrants-were-detected-arriving-in-the-uk-via-small-boats">increased notably</a>” since 2019, it is imperative to consider the origin of those seeking asylum. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/feb/23/only-22-afghans-resettled-in-uk-scheme-vulnerable-refugees-small-boats-channel">Afghans</a> consist of the largest nationality group to have crossed the English Chanel in recent months, consistently increasing since the resurgence of the Taliban. </p>
<p>Countries do not exist in a vacuum. When wars and conflict erupt, people are forced to flee elsewhere. This is the fundamental premise upon which the Refugee Convention was drafted in the aftermath of the second world war.</p>
<h2>The dark history of Australia’s refugee policy</h2>
<p>The reintroduction of regional processing of asylum seekers in Australia in 2012 followed a long history of turning back boats at sea. The turn-backs were drastically stepped up in the immediate aftermath of the 2013 election under the guise of Operation Sovereign Borders. </p>
<p>Both policies remain in place under the new Labor government at an estimated cost of <a href="https://www.refugeecouncil.org.au/operation-sovereign-borders-offshore-detention-statistics/6/">$9.65 billion over the past decade</a> for offshore processing alone. Australia’s policy of sending asylum seekers to third countries – Nauru and Papua New Guinea – has been found to contravene human rights by numerous international bodies. </p>
<p>UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet labelled the centres “<a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/statements/2018/09/39th-session-human-rights-council?LangID=E&NewsID=23518">an affront to the protection of human rights</a>”. The International Criminal Court’s prosecutor called the offshore regime “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/feb/15/australias-offshore-detention-is-unlawful-says-international-criminal-court-prosecutor">cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment</a>”.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514367/original/file-20230309-20-1pprul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514367/original/file-20230309-20-1pprul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514367/original/file-20230309-20-1pprul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514367/original/file-20230309-20-1pprul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514367/original/file-20230309-20-1pprul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514367/original/file-20230309-20-1pprul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514367/original/file-20230309-20-1pprul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Australia’s offshore detention regime has been widely criticised as cruel and degrading.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Aziz Abdul/AAP</span></span>
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<p>Australian law <a href="http://www5.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/consol_act/ma1958118/s46a.html">provides</a> that an application for a protection visa is not valid if made by an “unauthorised maritime arrival”. It <a href="http://www5.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/consol_act/ma1958118/s198ad.html">also stipulates</a> that such arrivals “must” be removed to a regional processing country. </p>
<p>The UK bill similarly places a duty on the secretary of state to remove any person who arrives without authority, irrespective of their claim for protection under refugee law. This amounts to a dangerous repudiation of the UK’s obligations under international refugee law to respect the doctrine of non-refoulement. It’s a cornerstone principle that protects refugees from being returned to a place where they may suffer harm. </p>
<p>This is but one of the more drastic ways in which the UK bill contravenes human rights law. Home Secretary Suella Braverman has <a href="https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/3429">acknowledged </a> she cannot guarantee the bill is compatible with the European Convention on Human Rights.</p>
<p>Concerningly, the UK bill further authorises the secretary to “make arrangements for the removal” of an unaccompanied child who arrives alone. </p>
<p>Removal of children is sadly commonplace in the Australian experience, with devastating impacts. More than 8,000 pages of leaked incident reports from Australia’s detention camps on Nauru in 2016 (known as the “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/aug/10/the-nauru-files-2000-leaked-reports-reveal-scale-of-abuse-of-children-in-australian-offshore-detention">Nauru files</a>”) detailed numerous cases of child abuse and sexual assault suffered on the island. More than 1,000 of the leaked reports documented harm to children.</p>
<p>There’s no denying the issue of refugees arriving by sea is complex. But within the tangle of competing arguments, some things are simple. There’s no excuse for harming people. </p>
<p>With the <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/uk/news/press/2023/3/6407794e4/statement-on-uk-asylum-bill.html">UNHCR estimating</a> the “vast majority” of those arriving in the UK via the English Channel would be accepted as refugees if their claims were fairly determined, this bill undermines the fundamental system of international protection. It represents a dangerous trend by governments eager to follow the lead of Australia’s punitive policy.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/changes-to-temporary-protection-visas-are-a-welcome-development-and-they-wont-encourage-people-smugglers-199763">Changes to temporary protection visas are a welcome development – and they won't encourage people smugglers</a>
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<h2>The human toll is too high</h2>
<p>Beneath the intellectual discussion of human rights violations lies the devastating human impact of the Australian policy Britain seeks to replicate. Over the past ten years, we’ve represented and heard from many who have suffered irreparable harm from Australia’s refugee policy. </p>
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<p>Among them were children who have attempted self-harm and <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/christmas-island-children-should-all-be-freed-from-detention-20140828-109bxj.html">speak about no longer wanting to live</a>. A tall, gentle <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/stop-the-boats-a-merciless-and-punitive-government-policy-20140707-zsyp3.html">man who lost his eye</a> and suffered blunt facial trauma while witnessing his friend die during a riot in detention on Manus Island. A wife who watched on helplessly as her husband <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-01/inquest-death-iranian-refugee-omid-masoumali-burns/10854742">self-immolated on Nauru</a>. He died in agonising pain two days later from burns the inquest into his death heard were “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-01/inquest-death-iranian-refugee-omid-masoumali-burns/10854742">very survivable</a>”. There were also <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/feb/03/the-australia-government-is-playing-russian-roulette-with-womens-lives">pregnant women</a> medically evacuated to Australia with life-threatening conditions, shaking on the hospital bed as they recall their ordeal and clutch their newborn. </p>
<p>We have witnessed <a href="https://www.hrlc.org.au/news/2018/10/15/refugee-families-ripped-apart-by-australian-government-take-their-case-to-the-united-nations">families separated</a> across oceans; fathers who missed the birth of their children. The <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/27/children-are-damaged-in-detention-australias-day-of-reckoning-will-come">ongoing physical and mental harm</a> suffered by refugees in Australia cannot be overestimated – nor can the damage to the soul of the nation.</p>
<p>The Australian experience of deterring and punishing people seeking asylum by boat should serve as a warning rather than a blueprint for the UK. Australia represents an example of a dangerously inhumane and exorbitantly costly policy that has damaged its human rights standing globally. But, more fundamentally, it’s an example of the devastating human toll that will ensue if this bill is passed into law.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201390/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Foster receives funding from Australian Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katie Robertson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Australian experience of deterring and punishing asylum seekers who arrive by boat should serve as a warning rather than a blueprint for the UK.Michelle Foster, Professor, Melbourne Law School, The University of MelbourneKatie Robertson, Director - Stateless Legal Clinic, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1966932022-12-16T16:18:51Z2022-12-16T16:18:51ZAsylum claim rejections show the UK government has little understanding of what people are fleeing – and it’s costing lives<p>After yet <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-63968941">another tragedy</a> in the Channel, there is no doubt that something needs to be done to improve the processes overseeing asylum seekers coming to the UK, through whatever route. The UK’s prime minister, Rishi Sunak, has outlined a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/dec/13/rishi-sunak-tells-mps-clear-asylum-backlog-end-of-2023">five-point plan</a> to fix Britain’s broken immigration system.</p>
<p>New laws will criminalise those who enter the country “illegally”, allowing people to be more rapidly deported. Newly arrived migrants will find it more difficult to open bank accounts, and definitions of modern slavery will be changed to make it harder to claim asylum on this basis. More case workers will be drafted in to help remove people more rapidly and deal with the backlog of asylum claims.</p>
<p>More than <a href="https://www.refugeecouncil.org.uk/latest/news/government-statistics-show-a-staggering-backlog-of-asylum-claims-a-high-grant-rate-and-a-lack-of-safe-routes/">143,000</a> people are still awaiting a decision on their asylum application, unable to work and living in immigration limbo. Nearly 100,000 of these have been waiting for more than six months. Sunak has promised to get rid of the backlog within a year.</p>
<p>The application process is too long and complex, so promises to increase capacity are welcome and overdue. But the problems go beyond resources to respond to applications. There are real dangers that the current plan could result in thousands (perhaps tens of thousands) of people with legitimate claims being sent back to countries in which they face significant threats to their safety.</p>
<p>Over the past 20 years, I have written more than 50 expert reports for appeals against Home Office decisions to refuse asylum claims. I have witnessed at first hand how the Home Office has failed asylum seekers over Labour, coalition and Conservative governments.</p>
<h2>Poor judgement in rejections</h2>
<p>When an application has been refused, the person receives the decision and reasoning in a Home Office refusal letter. Reading the application and decision documents, it is clear that outcomes are being decided by officials with a very limited understanding of the countries and contexts from which people are fleeing. </p>
<p>It was here that I could see the inconsistencies and poor judgements in decision making. Some applicants were members of opposition parties, targeted by states widely known for using violence and intimidation against political opponents. They would be told by the Home Office that this couldn’t be the case, because their government was a multiparty democracy and had signed up to international human rights laws. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/inside-britains-asylum-appeal-system-what-its-like-to-challenge-the-home-office-88907">Inside Britain's asylum appeal system – what it's like to challenge the Home Office</a>
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<p>Accounts of torture might be dismissed on the basis that a government had signed international laws against the use of torture, and illegal detention couldn’t happen because the judiciary is (formally) independent. Or dissidents could simply move elsewhere in the country to be safe. </p>
<p>Others were claiming asylum on the basis of being gay, coming from countries where “hatred” does not come close to describing the vitriol felt, and potential for violence against people believed to be LGBTQ+ is rampant. They were told that because they did not have a partner, or did not go to the types of places the Home Office believed gay people hung out, their claims were rejected. Others were told they could seek protection and report threats to the police, despite having described in their claim instances of violence and illegal detention by the police.</p>
<p>Those fleeing from families determined they should go through female genital mutilation were told their governments had laws banning the practice, so this should be sufficient protection. The idea that reality might differ from formal laws and commitments appeared non-existent.</p>
<h2>Inconsistencies</h2>
<p>Making these decisions even more infuriating and downright dangerous is the fact that official <a href="https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/uganda/local-laws-and-customs">Foreign Office travel advice</a> points out the exact dangers the Home Office blithely dismissed.</p>
<p>It wasn’t that the government lacked expertise and knowledge as a whole, just that – wilfully or because of ineffective systems – one department saw the world very differently from the other. </p>
<p>These inconsistencies and outright poor decisions led me to suspect that asylum application rejections often had very little to do with the merit of the case itself, but were deliberate. This was reinforced by the large number of cases I was involved with that were <a href="https://www.amnesty.org.uk/files/a_question_of_credibility_final_0.pdf?VersionId=v7NdxUcRYd3gLn5oOCa0HP6ftAZsy7E6">overturned on appeal</a>.</p>
<p>I believe that governments from the mid-2000s felt the need to look tough on migrants – including asylum seekers – after coming under pressure from a perceived backlash to rising immigration numbers, and facing a constant barrage of misleading and untrue press coverage. Refusing applications allowed the government to appear in control, even if many of the decisions were later overturned on appeal. In this, the lives and wellbeing of people fleeing fear, violence and threats were not just ignored, but used in a political game. </p>
<p>I welcome any decision that will speed up the appallingly labyrinthine, slow and failing asylum application process. But it is not just a faster process that is needed, it is a better one overall. One that uses good understandings of the situations and countries people are fleeing from; one that starts not from a position of distrust but of listening; and a process that focuses on the needs of asylum seekers, not a government seeking to manipulate immigration figures. </p>
<p>I saw very little of that in the latest announcement. The government still appears set on politicising the fear and violence against the most vulnerable for its own ends – and the hostile environment looks set to come back more hostile than ever.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/196693/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Jennings is affiliated with Fabian Society. </span></em></p>Many asylum applications are rejected on grounds that dismiss the dire situations in applicants’ countries of origin.Michael Jennings, Professor in Global Development, SOAS, University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1952212022-11-25T10:43:31Z2022-11-25T10:43:31ZLabour sounds like the Tories on immigration – but its policy goes back to its trade union roots<p>Keir Starmer has given a glimpse of what immigration policy could look like under a Labour government. Speaking to the Confederation for British Industry, the party leader’s key message was about reducing the UK’s dependency on migrant labour.</p>
<p>Former Ukip leader Nigel Farage, known for his headline-making commentary, has claimed that Labour is now <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/nigel-farage-has-praised-keir-starmers-speech-on-immigration_uk_637cab17e4b0e771d958131a">to the right</a> of Conservatives on immigration. In terms of broad rhetoric, Starmer and the current government aren’t dissimilar on the basic point of ending what they call Britain’s dependence on migrant labour. </p>
<p>This is also something former Labour party leader Jeremy Corbyn implicitly put forward in his <a href="https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Real-Change-Labour-Manifesto-2019.pdf">2019 party manifesto</a> by vowing to ban overseas-only recruitment practices and regulate the labour market including “stopping the undercutting of wages”. </p>
<p>Post-Brexit, businesses have urged government to be “practical” on immigration. This plea has largely <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/67f61f1b-288a-4a85-952f-a0f2085717ff">fallen on deaf ears</a>. UK prime minister Rishi Sunak told the CBI his focus is on <a href="https://www.itv.com/news/2022-11-21/rishi-sunak-to-be-urged-to-be-practical-about-immigration-to-plug-shortages">“tackling illegal immigration”</a>, and the government’s most recent immigration plan is almost exclusively focused on asylum. The home secretary, recently under fire for harsh rhetoric on refugees, has said she’s <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/suella-braverman-rwanda-dream-obsession-b2195296.html">obsessed</a> – but not with making it easier for businesses to hire from abroad.</p>
<p>Starmer acknowledged the need for skilled workers from abroad, saying: “We can’t have a situation, as we did with HGV drivers, where temporary shortages threaten to cripple entire sectors of our economy.”</p>
<p>But he makes it clear that any changes to the current immigration system would come with a price for business – clear plans to boost skills and more training, for better pay and conditions and for investment in new technology.</p>
<p>The desire to reduce immigration dependency and give domestic workers more skills is shared by politicians of every stripe, though it’s <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1467-923X.13111">harder for the Conservative party</a>, so long the party of business, to pursue a strategy that displeases industry so explicitly.<br>
Sunak’s immigration minister, Robert Jenrick, says he wants to see employers <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/more-immigration-needed-to-fill-jobs-and-boost-growth-cbi-boss-to-tell-sunak-12752147">putting British workers first</a>, reminiscent of Gordon Brown’s infamous <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2009/jan/30/brown-british-jobs-workers">“British jobs for British workers”</a> pledge. But there’s no policy substance behind this platitude. </p>
<p>Jenrick says there’s a need to give the 5 million economically inactive people in Britain the skills to get back into the labour market. He gives no indication of what skills are needed, how to provide this or appreciation of why there are so many economically inactive people in the first place. </p>
<p>New Labour was particularly keen to facilitate and encourage migrant workers under their <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-319-64692-3">managed migration policy</a>. Some factions of the Conservative government, including the recent prime minister, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/sep/25/liz-truss-plans-more-immigration-in-effort-to-fill-vacancies-and-drive-growth">Liz Truss</a>, are too. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-new-labour-made-britain-into-a-migration-state-85472">How New Labour made Britain into a migration state</a>
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<h2>Migration and the economy</h2>
<p>Starmer’s underlying message is about transforming the UK’s political economy from a liberal labour market towards a more coordinated one. Liberal labour markets have low employment protection, light regulations and a large low-wage sector. A key element of this is flexibility, of which migrant labour offers plenty.</p>
<p>Before Brexit, the UK managed to have a very restrictive immigration policy, precisely because EU nationals filled the labour market gaps. However, due to Brexit and now the pandemic, this surplus of flexible labour has dissipated.</p>
<p>Starmer is correct that the UK is structurally dependent on immigrant labour, but this is a product of the government’s (and employers’) own making. Low-paid sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing and hospitality <a href="https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/migrants-in-the-uk-labour-market-an-overview/">rely on migrant labour</a>, particularly from central and eastern Europe due to the low pay and poor working conditions offered. </p>
<p>The health and social care sectors are a good example of how the government and employers have created dependence on migrant labour. Chronic under-investment in the sector has kept wages low, working conditions poor, and led to major labour shortages. </p>
<p>Apprenticeship schemes have also declined, and recent governments have been reluctant to invest in training and vocational education to move to a more coordinated market economy, where education and training of Britons parallel labour market needs.</p>
<p>Instead, recent governments have relied on points-based immigration systems (PBS) as a panacea for immigration woes. This isn’t just a Conservative issue – New Labour introduced the UK’s first PBS in 2008, though David Cameron’s Conservative-led government dismantled it.</p>
<p>Former prime minister Boris Johnson brought in another system in 2020 but it is a points-based system in name only. In reality it is a series of mandatory requirements with a bit more flex than previously. </p>
<p>The high salary threshold of £25,600 is lower than it was (£30,000), but still nowhere near the salary of many low-paid workers. The excessive red tape of the current post-Brexit system has caused further problems with hiring foreign labour, particularly for <a href="https://www.fsb.org.uk/resource-report/a-world-of-talent.html">small businesses</a>. </p>
<h2>An olive branch to unions</h2>
<p>One aspect of the speech marked a fairly bold shift in tone and direction from the last Labour government. Starmer made clear that trade unions will be part of the conversation with employers about how to reduce dependency on migrant labour. During the New Labour years, neither Tony Blair nor Gordon Brown saw any real role for trade unions in immigration policy. </p>
<p>It is unclear how this will work – trade unions may be part of the conversation on deciding where businesses should invest in training, or in how to improve working conditions and career progression for workers. </p>
<p>In some respects, Starmer is taking Labour back to its protectionist, trade union roots. Since Labour left office in 2010, the party has been soul searching, struggling to resolve the key tension between protecting working-class workers and credibly appealing to competitive, global business. Trying to configure a party that speaks to two diametrically opposing but essential constituencies is a tough gig. </p>
<p>Starmer is not popular with the Corbyn-backing side of Labour, nor the Brexit-voting faction, who have a distaste for Starmer’s remainer credentials. Starmer’s message might appeal to these factions, who want to see more regulation of the labour market and in turn, greater employment rights for citizens. </p>
<p>Trade unions will be pleased to have a privileged seat in policymaking –- an important group to appease as the country faces mass industrial disputes across sectors. Starmer has been at odds with unions after <a href="https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/labour-front-benchers-banned-from-picket-lines-amid-rail-strikes">advising frontbenchers not to join picket lines</a>. This is an olive branch at a key moment.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195221/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Erica Consterdine does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Labour and Conservatives share a desire to wean the UK off a dependency on migrant labour.Erica Consterdine, Senior Lecturer in Public Policy, Lancaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1942292022-11-11T16:42:44Z2022-11-11T16:42:44ZUK immigration: creating a spectacle around people seeking asylum generates fear and chaos, not solutions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494835/original/file-20221111-12-eiov8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=29%2C8%2C1075%2C682&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Suella Braverman's Chinook flight to an immigration holding facility in Kent is the latest move in a decade of border spectacle.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.alamy.com/home-secretary-suella-braverman-arrives-in-a-chinook-helicopter-for-a-visit-to-the-manston-immigration-short-term-holding-facility-located-at-the-former-defence-fire-training-and-development-centre-in-thanet-kent-picture-date-thursday-november-3-2022-image488757653.html?imageid=B7E6314D-8A9D-451A-8480-5F9D59BB2ACF&p=309277&pn=1&searchId=c66b67e14cc550a1bb3141aca67caf69&searchtype=0">Gareth Fuller / PA images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When the Home Office left a group of people seeking asylum <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/nov/02/home-office-leaves-asylum-seekers-from-manston-stranded-in-central-london">stranded at London’s Victoria Station</a> last week, the scenes were stark. Hungry, cold and disoriented, they had been transported from Manston immigration centre, where 4,000 people were being crammed into a space built for 1,600.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.kentonline.co.uk/thanet/news/violence-erupts-in-squalid-conditions-at-manston-276556/">Outbreaks of illness and reports of abuse</a> are just part of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-uks-asylum-system-is-in-crisis-but-the-government-not-refugees-is-to-blame-193670">increasingly dire situation</a> at Manston, and in the UK’s immigration system more generally.</p>
<p>The images brought to mind scenes from 2015-16 when <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2016/05/529462?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIqqKh8uKe-wIV0MLtCh2AKgAgEAAYAiAAEgKFwvD_BwE">unprecedented numbers of people</a> fleeing conflict and poverty arrived by boat at <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-migrants-italy-idUSKBN14J1GE">Europe’s southern borders</a>. They also echo the lines of refugees, freezing and hungry, who had made their way to eastern European borders, arriving at train stations in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/projects/cp/reporters-notebook/migrants/budapest-s-keleti-train-station-has-become-a-de-facto-refugee-camp#:%7E:text=The%20scene%20at%20the%20Keleti,and%20along%20its%20underground%20passageways.">Hungary</a> and later to the north in <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2015/11/27/from-roma-to-refugees-swedens-impossible-choices">Sweden</a>. </p>
<p>They are an extreme contrast with the images of Home Secretary Suella Braverman arriving at Manston <a href="https://uk.news.yahoo.com/suella-braverman-makes-20-mile-191755635.html">by military helicopter</a> – a patently unnecessary method of transportation for somewhere just a few hours’ drive from London. </p>
<p>But as disturbing as these images are, they come as no surprise. The Conservative government, in power for 12 years, has <a href="https://irr.org.uk/article/deadly-crossings/">progressively militarised</a> its approach to migrants and used spectacle to do so. </p>
<p>What is happening now is fundamentally a problem <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-uks-asylum-system-is-in-crisis-but-the-government-not-refugees-is-to-blame-193670?fbclid=IwAR3YQ0HT3HCgT0J9nJQRxtx1b4tRtP82fmszRYlHVNS3mY6pbzEM-RHxDqk">created by the government itself</a>. As I wrote <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/mono/10.4324/9781315720975/gendered-harm-structural-violence-british-asylum-system-victoria-canning">five years ago</a>, every policy decision, every legislative shift, could have had other outcomes. Instead, by presenting situations that could have been managed as unmanageable, the government has been able to justify ever harsher border policies.</p>
<h2>Creating a spectacle</h2>
<p>Every aspect of Braverman’s recent visit to the Kent centre was calculated. The military imagery complemented her <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/nov/01/bravermans-invasion-claim-not-backed-by-facts-say-experts">own choice of words</a> to convey the message that <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/nov/01/an-invasion-suella-braverman-refugee-crisis-governments-own-making">Britain is being “invaded”</a>.</p>
<p>This strategy is best described as “<a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01419870.2013.783710?journalCode=rers20">border spectacularisation</a>”. This is the tactic of making a scene, drawing attention to immigration in a way that encourages the public to equate “migrant” with “illegal”. In Braverman’s approach there is an added aesthetic of military control, a grandiose symbol of invasion and protection when no such situation was present.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/suella-bravermans-talk-of-a-refugee-invasion-is-a-dangerous-political-gambit-gone-wrong-193638">Suella Braverman's talk of a refugee 'invasion' is a dangerous political gambit gone wrong</a>
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<p>This strategy was central in a defining and controversial image of the Brexit referendum. The pro-Leave UK Independence Party, helmed by Nigel Farage, brought out a poster featuring <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/16/nigel-farage-defends-ukip-breaking-point-poster-queue-of-migrants">queues of refugees</a> and “breaking point” in big red capitals. </p>
<p>Farage might have been politically peripheral (if not publicly) when he stood in front of that image. But his message has nonetheless been adopted into policy. Bolstered by the <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2014/22/contents/enacted">Immigration Acts of 2014</a> <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2016/19/contents/enacted">and 2016</a>, the Nationality and Borders Act 2022 has now made it almost impossible to legitimately seek asylum in the UK. It is a direct undermining of our pledge to uphold the 1951 Refugee Convention.</p>
<p>We should expect to see more of this as the government rallies to reduce the arrivals of people on small boats. Harsh measures need public consensus, and as history has taught us, there is no better way to do so than by creating a mood of risk and fear.</p>
<p>These are familiar strategies in other countries with ever stricter border policies. In 2017, Denmark’s former minister of immigration, integration and housing, Inger Støjberg, had to be evacuated by security guards during a visit she made to the Sjælsmark deportation centre. Tensions rose when some of the detainees, whose claims for asylum had been rejected, <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5053737/Minister-flees-mob-asylum-seekers-immigration-centre.html">cornered her in her car</a>. </p>
<p>Støjberg, who was later <a href="https://www.euronews.com/2021/12/13/inger-st-jberg-denmark-s-ex-immigration-minister-convicted-of-impeachment-over-asylum-poli">jailed for enacting illegal asylum policies</a>, was instrumental in facilitating unlivable conditions for people seeking asylum. She <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/03/world/europe/denmark-migrants-island.html">made headlines</a> with her comments that migrants were unwanted in Denmark, and would be made to feel that.</p>
<p>By 2021, Denmark had become the first country in Europe to consider <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2021/05/denmark-plans-to-send-asylum-seekers-to-rwanda-unconscionable-and-potentially-unlawful/">offshoring its asylum process</a>. Controversially, the prime minister and leader of the Social Democrats Mette Frederiksen – otherwise often lauded for progressive policies – has now implemented a <a href="https://www.infomigrants.net/en/post/29842/denmark-aims-for-zero-asylum-seekers">“net zero” approach</a> to refugees. This is the clear path Britain has also taken, with little regard for our international obligations on refugee rights. </p>
<h2>Missed opportunities</h2>
<p>Politicians have long seized on periods of significant instability to encourage anti-migrant sentiment. When the first British border control laws were formalised in the Aliens Act of 1905, the government’s aim was to reduce “undesirable” migration. The main targets were Jewish refugees fleeing pogroms in Russia, as well as other eastern European migrants. Xenophobia and antisemitism were effectively enshrined in policy. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.open.edu/openlearn/society-politics-law/timeline-the-criminalisation-asylum#1">Over the last century</a>, war, famine and political instability have been the bedrock of border securitisation globally. This approach to immigration policy – which can be seen <a href="https://www.statewatch.org/news/2019/december/eu-guarding-the-fortress/">across the EU</a> as well as in the UK – treats the movement of people across borders as a security threat rather than an opportunity for humanitarian assistance.</p>
<p>Central to border spectacularisation is that the situation being presented as unmanageable usually isn’t. The UK situation is a case in point. Since the 1980s in particular, successive British governments have sought to restrict immigration by conflating seeking asylum with criminalisation. More restrictive laws were passed by the New Labour government <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2531049">between 1997 and 2010</a> than in the nine preceding decades.</p>
<p>Our politicians speak now of <a href="https://www.itv.com/news/2022-06-18/home-office-begins-12-month-trial-electronically-tagging-channel-migrants">“alternatives” to detention</a> and addressing the increasing numbers of people arriving at Britain’s southern shores. But this country was already offered an alternative during 2015-16. </p>
<p>The German Chancellor at the time, Angela Merkel, and her French counterpart Francois Hollande <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/merkel-and-hollande-call-for-refugee-distribution-quotas-in-europe/a-18692857">proposed</a> quotas to ensure that EU states – of which the UK was still one – could equally respond to increased refugee applications. But the UK <a href="https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/border-mismanagement-ignorance-and-denial">deliberately ignored</a> this opportunity for collaboration, and as a result went statistically largely unaffected by the greatest mass movement of people since the second world war.</p>
<p>Had the then-home secretary Theresa May agreed to those Franco-German proposals, the situation in the UK today might look different. Instead, 12 years of Conservative governance has pushed narratives that dehumanise vulnerable people, and turned the border into a spectacle. These tactics have failed for all parties, and the harms are resting firmly on people who have already faced persecution.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194229/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Victoria Canning has previously received funding from ESRC and The British Academy. She is affiliated with Statewatch. </span></em></p>Recent scenes at Victoria Station and Manston immigration centre are one way the government drives anti-migration sentiment.Victoria Canning, Associate Professor of Criminology, University of BristolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1887812022-09-05T12:21:16Z2022-09-05T12:21:16ZLegal work-related immigration has fallen by a third since 2020, contributing to US labor shortages<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482152/original/file-20220831-4878-9hc3o7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=269%2C122%2C7909%2C4709&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The reduction in foreign-born workers is weighing on the economy.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/visitors-at-the-92-ft-long-immigrantsareessential-art-news-photo/1345035892">Paul Morigi/Getty Images for Working Families</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>With Americans having <a href="https://theconversation.com/expanding-opportunities-for-women-and-economic-uncertainty-are-both-factors-in-declining-us-fertility-rates-162494">fewer children</a> and the nation’s labor force <a href="https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/gray-future-america-shifting-demographics-implications-immigration-reform">getting older</a>, many <a href="https://www.industryweek.com/talent/education-training/article/21248937/to-address-labor-shortages-manufacturers-must-become-talent-creators">employers in manufacturing</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/03/tech-companies-banks-overstaffed-while-airlines-hotels-need-workers.html">aviation</a> and other industries are having trouble finding enough workers.</p>
<p>The gap between the demand for labor and its supply was <a href="https://www.vox.com/2019/3/18/18270916/labor-shortage-workers-us">already forming in 2017</a>. By 2018, the U.S. economy had increasingly more <a href="https://www.bls.gov/jlt/#data">job openings</a> than unemployed workers. That <a href="https://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/economic_brief/2022/eb_22-12">gap has widened during the COVID-19 pandemic</a> as more people <a href="https://theconversation.com/brains-are-bad-at-big-numbers-making-it-impossible-to-grasp-what-a-million-covid-19-deaths-really-means-179081">have died</a>, <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/why-millions-of-older-americans-are-retiring-early-in-the-wake-of-the-pandemic">retired early</a> or simply <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2021/12/14/labor-market-exits-and-entrances-are-elevated-who-is-coming-back/">dropped out of the job market</a>.</p>
<p>By July 2022, as the pandemic’s effects on the workplace were easing, the U.S. had <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm">11.2 million job openings</a> but only <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm">5.7 million unemployed workers</a> who might fill them.</p>
<p>I’m a <a href="https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/jose-ivan-rodriguez-sanchez">scholar of immigration and economics</a> who researches a trend that’s driving labor shortages: <a href="https://www.economicmodeling.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/DD2_Bridging_The_Gap_Final.pdf">declining numbers of immigrants allowed to legally work</a> in the U.S. When I study these numbers, I see an important opportunity to resolve labor shortages that are <a href="https://news.ucr.edu/articles/2022/08/03/demographic-dilemma-slowing-population-growth-not-pandemic-root-us-worker">wreaking economic havoc</a>.</p>
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<h2>Work visas</h2>
<p>An estimated <a href="https://econofact.org/the-decline-in-u-s-net-migration">45 million people</a> living in the United States, roughly 14% of the population, were born elsewhere. About <a href="https://econofact.org/immigrant-earnings-and-out-migration-from-the-united-states">one in six U.S. workers is an immigrant</a>.</p>
<p>Some of these foreign-born workers are legally employed on a temporary basis with <a href="https://www.lexisnexis.com/community/insights/legal/b/thought-leadership/posts/the-three-ways-non-u-s-citizens-can-legally-live-and-work-in-the-united-states">an array of visas</a> that make it possible to obtain jobs that run the gamut from software designers to apple pickers.</p>
<p>In some cases, these employees can obtain <a href="https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-eligibility/green-card-for-employment-based-immigrants">legal permanent residency</a> – often called “a green card.” Some temporary work visas last longer than 12 months, so the <a href="https://uploads.fas.org/2020/10/Temporary-Work-Visa-Holders-2020.pdf">number of workers with authorization is higher</a> than the number of visas issued in that year. <a href="https://www.uscis.gov/working-in-the-united-states/h-1b-specialty-occupations">H-1B visas</a>, which require a high level of education for fields like computer programming, last three years and can be <a href="https://www.immi-usa.com/h1b-visa/h1b-visa-extension/">renewed for another three</a>. </p>
<p>The government issued a <a href="https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-statistics/nonimmigrant-visa-statistics.html">record 813,330 temporary employment-based visas in 2019</a>. The total fell by about a third to 566,000 in 2020, as the COVID-19 pandemic got underway, and the numbers were basically flat in 2021 at 566,001 – the first year of Joe Biden’s presidency.</p>
<p>Of course it’s important that the government not issue visas in such a way that <a href="https://www.npr.org/2017/08/04/541321716/fact-check-have-low-skilled-immigrants-taken-american-jobs">foreign workers depress wages</a> or lead to the dismissal of gainfully employed Americans.</p>
<p>These lower wages could occur in the short run, but <a href="https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2016/1/27/the-effects-of-immigration-on-the-united-states-economy">most empirical studies</a> show there are long-term benefits in terms of what native-born people earn when immigration rises.</p>
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<h2>Taking a bite out of the economy</h2>
<p>The sharp reduction in the number of temporary visas for foreign-born workers in 2020 and 2021 harmed the U.S. economy. Based on my own calculations, the total cost was around <a href="https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/immigrants-in-strategic-sectors-of-the-us-economy-and-americas-labor-shortage-crisis">0.4% per year of total gross domestic product</a> – at least $82 billion per year in 2020 and 2021.</p>
<p>Immigration restrictions affected far more people, however, including those who were unable to obtain a green card because of the closure of embassies and consulates. All told, these policies resulted in an estimated <a href="https://globalmigration.ucdavis.edu/news/giovanni-peri-and-reem-zaiour-econofact-and-marketwatch">2 million fewer working-age immigrants</a> in the U.S. in 2020 and 2021. </p>
<p>Including those additional losses nearly triples the economic cost of U.S. immigration restrictions to about <a href="https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/immigrants-in-strategic-sectors-of-the-us-economy-and-americas-labor-shortage-crisis">1.1% per year of U.S. GDP</a>.</p>
<p>Unless the U.S. reverses course and issues more work-related visas, I estimate that the worker shortage will double to over 4 million by 2030. My calculations also suggest this will <a href="https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/immigrants-in-strategic-sectors-of-the-us-economy-and-americas-labor-shortage-crisis">shave about 4.3% off of GDP</a>, on average, annually for the next eight years. Adding that all up, that would amount to about $9 trillion in lost economic output. </p>
<h2>Labor shortages</h2>
<p>Labor shortages are especially severe today in certain industries that rely heavily on immigrants as employees.</p>
<p>For example, <a href="https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/immigrants-in-strategic-sectors-of-the-us-economy-and-americas-labor-shortage-crisis">in 2020 foreign-born workers accounted</a> for 39% of the farming, fishing and forestry workforce, 30% of all people employed in construction and extraction, 26% of everyone working in computer science and mathematics and 22% in health care support.</p>
<p>As a result, <a href="https://www.lawinfo.com/resources/immigration/employment-based-immigration/how-immigration-affects-u-s-business-and-tech-industries.html">these industries are facing unprecedented challenges</a> in trying to find workers to <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/immigration-jobs-workers-labor-shortage/">fill open jobs</a>.</p>
<p>If these labor shortages continue, I’m certain that they will keep hurting job markets, supply chains and productivity as <a href="https://www.uschamber.com/workforce/how-fixing-our-worker-shortage-can-fight-inflation">companies have to pay their employees more</a> and then increase prices due in part to those <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/labor-shortage-is-vexing-challenge-for-u-s-economy-11660469401">higher labor costs</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART">labor force participation rate</a>, which measures the number of people in the job market as a percentage of the total working-age population, has been hovering around the lowest levels seen since the 1970s as more U.S. workers drop out of the job market. After plunging to 60% in 2020, it bounced back partially. The rate stood at 62.2% in July 2022.</p>
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<h2>Feasible fix</h2>
<p>Of course, there are other factors besides a lack of foreign-born visas issued that are responsible for the shortage of workers.</p>
<p>But none are easy to resolve. It’s hard for the government to increase the share of <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/labor-force-nonparticipation-trends-causes-and-policy-solutions/">adults who are working</a>, and there’s little that can be done in the short term about the <a href="https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2021/number-of-people-75-and-older-in-the-labor-force-is-expected-to-grow-96-5-percent-by-2030.ht">country’s aging workforce</a> – the result of a <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/nchs_press_releases/2022/20220524.htm">long-term fertility decline</a>.</p>
<p>Even if the <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2014/11/20/four-realities-about-executive-actions-moving-beyond-the-rhetoric-of-immigration-reform/">political hurdles can be high</a>, I believe boosting the number of immigrants allowed to legally work in the United States is an important way that the authorities can ease labor shortages.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188781/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jose Ivan Rodriguez-Sanchez receives funding from the Charles Koch Foundation. He is affiliated with Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy. </span></em></p>The immigration decline over the first two years of the coronavirus pandemic led to an annual 1.1% GDP reduction, an economist estimates.Jose Ivan Rodriguez-Sanchez, Research Scholar of Economics, Rice UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1882462022-08-15T16:06:37Z2022-08-15T16:06:37ZLiz Truss and Rishi Sunak want to crack down on migration – an expert reviews their plans<p>Immigration is an <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1467-923X.13111">ideological headache for the UK’s Conservative party</a>, caught between its neoliberal new right that champions free markets, and its social conservatism, which immigration is said to threaten. But a restrictive immigration stance has been a winning ticket for the Conservatives since David Cameron’s 2010 pledge to <a href="https://general-election-2010.co.uk/2010-general-election-manifestos/Conservative-Party-Manifesto-2010.pdf">reduce net migration</a>. </p>
<p>Conservative voters still consider immigration to be the <a href="https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/the-most-important-issues-facing-the-country?crossBreak=conservative">second most important issue facing Britain</a>. But after years of stringent measures, the road has run out on cutting immigration. An <a href="https://www.conservatives.com/our-plan">“Australian style”</a> points-based immigration system has already been <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-points-based-immigration-system-employer-information/the-uks-points-based-immigration-system-an-introduction-for-employers">delivered</a> and can no longer be promised as the panacea. </p>
<p>This leaves the future prime minister to focus on preventing irregular migration, and the reliable vote winner of restricting asylum. So it’s no surprise that leadership contenders Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss are promising hard-line immigration policies. While the rivals differ in their approach, both have pitched ideas whose feasibility and legality are suspect.</p>
<p>Sunak kicked things off with his <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/07/23/asylum-system-broken-ten-point-plan-fix/">ten-point plan</a> to fix the “broken” asylum system. He wants to cap the number of refugees, tackle the asylum backlog, crack down on small boat crossings, and end what he calls the “farce” of housing asylum seekers in hotels.</p>
<p>Sunak wants to “tighten” the legal definition of who qualifies for asylum to be “in line with the [UN] Refugee Convention” instead of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR). This is baffling given that the ECHR has no definition of asylum seekers. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/07/23/rishi-sunak-vows-cap-refugee-numbers-common-sense-asylum-system/">Reports suggest</a> Sunak is alluding to the court’s interpretation of article 3 of the convention, which protects people from being removed from the UK on the grounds of escaping “inhuman or degrading treatment. This can include having a serious medical condition, where the asylum seeker believes that an absence of medical treatment in their country of origin will result in <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/927593/medical-claims-_article3and8_-v8.0ext.pdf">intense suffering</a> or significant reduction in life expectancy.</p>
<p>To address the <a href="https://freemovement.org.uk/briefing-the-sorry-state-of-the-uk-asylum-system">backlog of asylum decisions</a>, Sunak has proposed an increase in case workers and "performance incentives”. As I’ve found in my research, asylum backlogs are part of a long history of <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-319-64692-3">organisational failure at the Home Office</a>, and performance targets are likely to <a href="https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/targets-public-services.pdf">incentivise quick and therefore sloppy decision making</a>. This proposal might decrease the initial backlog, but would no doubt result in a ballooning of appeals, generating costs to the government and more unnecessary waits for asylum seekers. </p>
<p>Sunak also wants to place immigration as a centrepiece in foreign policy by reassessing aid and trade terms in order to deter illegal migration, including bilateral agreements to return irregular migrants to their country of origin. This will be hard to achieve with a weak geopolitical hand. Post-Brexit Britain is already unpopular with its European neighbours and bilateral deals require cooperation and partnerships. </p>
<h2>Securing the borders</h2>
<p>Liz Truss has been less meticulous in her immigration policy proposals than her competitor. Like her rival, Truss zeroes in on clandestine entry to the UK. But where Sunak wants to overhaul by circumventing international norms, Truss is more interested in securing borders by tinkering with the existing regime. </p>
<p>Truss nebulously refers to pushing for reforms of the ECHR so that it <a href="https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/liz-truss-and-rishi-sunak-enter-arms-race-immigration-plans-both-vow-tougher-rwanda-style-schemes-1759195">“works for Britain”</a>. Much to the distaste of the right of the Conservative base, she also promises a <a href="https://www.fdf.org.uk/fdf/news-media/news/2022-news/liz-truss-pledges-to-unleash-british-food/">short-term expansion</a> of the seasonal agricultural scheme, which allows foreign workers to come to the UK for <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/07/31/let-migrants-pick-fruit-farms-says-liz-truss/">summer agricultural jobs</a>. </p>
<p>In a more concrete proposal, she vows to <a href="https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1551184243803529216">increase the frontline border force</a> by 20% and double the border force’s maritime staffing levels. Staff increase will be welcome, but this is a sticking plaster for the increase in irregular entry.</p>
<p>Where the rivals share a vision is on expanding the highly controversial <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/memorandum-of-understanding-mou-between-the-uk-and-rwanda/memorandum-of-understanding-between-the-government-of-the-united-kingdom-of-great-britain-and-northern-ireland-and-the-government-of-the-republic-of-r">Rwanda deal</a>, which allows the UK to send some people to Rwanda who would otherwise claim asylum in the UK. The scheme has been widely criticised at home and abroad over its <a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9568/">practicality, efficacy, value for money</a> and compatibility with human rights laws. </p>
<p>The first scheduled flight to send asylum seekers to Rwanda in June 2022 was grounded after a dramatic last minute intervention by the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jun/14/european-court-humam-right-makes-11th-hour-intervention-in-rwanda-asylum-seeker-plan">European Court of Human Rights</a>. Despite these ethical and <a href="https://care4calais.org/news/how-were-challenging-the-rwanda-scheme/">legal</a> challenges, both Sunak and Truss are committed to the idea of outsourcing asylum processing, vowing to make the deal work and explore further partnerships. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/rwanda-deportations-what-is-the-european-court-of-human-rights-and-why-did-it-stop-the-uk-flight-from-taking-off-185143">Rwanda deportations: what is the European Court of Human Rights, and why did it stop the UK flight from taking off?</a>
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<h2>Sticking plaster plans</h2>
<p>Both contenders are papering over the cracks with these plans. The evidence is stacked <a href="https://ecre.org/uk-confusion-over-rawanda-deal-as-home-office-moves-to-detain-asylum-seekers-deterrence-effect-doubtful-as-channel-crossings-continue-ten-years-of-hostile-environment-leaves-nothing-to-celebrate/">against deterrence tactics</a>. The <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-62192527">home affairs select committee</a> has found no evidence that the Rwanda scheme will deter migrants. </p>
<p>The reduction of safe, legal humanitarian routes to asylum, as well as <a href="https://freemovement.org.uk/briefing-the-sorry-state-of-the-uk-asylum-system/">inertia on settlement schemes</a>, has and will continue to lead to dangerous clandestine entry and lives lost. Arguably, the most draconian plans are smoke and mirrors designed to appeal to party members who are ideologically to the <a href="https://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Mind-the-values-gap.pdf">right of Conservative MPs</a>. Whoever governs will likely water these plans down, or can expect them to be stuck in legal purgatory in the courts. </p>
<p>The glaring omission from both candidates is any plan for fixing an immigration system that is contributing to severe <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/sep/06/uk-labour-crisis-could-last-up-to-two-years-cbi-warns">labour market shortages</a>. Whoever becomes PM will have to address the reality of the failing immigration system that employers have decried is <a href="https://www.fsb.org.uk/resource-report/a-world-of-talent.html">bloated with red tape</a>. </p>
<p>Ultimately, Sunak and Truss’s dog-whistling to party members may backfire when it comes to a general election. While an authoritarian policy may have been a winning ticket in the 2010s, public concerns over immigration are at a historic low and it <a href="https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/the-most-important-issues-facing-the-country">isn’t a pressing issue</a> with voters anymore.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188246/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Erica Consterdine does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>An expert breaks down the promises from the two Conservative leadership candidates.Erica Consterdine, Senior Lecturer in Public Policy, Lancaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1874152022-08-02T17:24:37Z2022-08-02T17:24:37ZCanada must grant permanent immigration status to undocumented residents<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477181/original/file-20220802-13-5zg4yx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3000%2C1976&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A woman takes part in a protest in Montréal in January 2021 to demand status for all workers. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Graham Hughes</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the December 2021 <a href="https://pm.gc.ca/en/mandate-letters/2021/12/16/minister-immigration-refugees-and-citizenship-mandate-letter">mandate letter</a> to the newly appointed Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship, the Liberal government tasked him with exploring “ways of regularizing status for undocumented workers who are contributing to Canadian communities.” </p>
<p>Sean Fraser <a href="https://www.cicnews.com/2022/07/canadas-immigration-minister-wants-to-make-good-on-mandate-letter-commitments-for-refugees-and-undocumented-workers-0727639.html#gs.70cv21">has since said</a> he’s working on designing a regularization program that can help address this issue. </p>
<p>In May, MPs passed <a href="https://www.ourcommons.ca/members/en/89339/motions/11528727">motion M-44</a> urging the government to design a plan to provide permanent residency to temporary foreign workers. If planned and executed correctly, these programs could be a historic opportunity to improve the lives of up to 1.7 million people who live in Canada without a secure status. </p>
<h2>Demanded action</h2>
<p>In July 2021, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/solidarity-across-borders-downtown-montreal-protest-1.6107740">migrants and advocates in Montréal</a>, Toronto, Edmonton and St. Catharines held rallies demanding that the programs be inclusive, comprehensive and permanent.</p>
<p>Now the question is whether the government will create a program that can provide status to all undocumented and temporary residents through permanent residency permits, or whether it will create a small symbolic program that will fail to properly tackle the issue. </p>
<p>There’s a lot at stake.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.migrationdataportal.org/themes/irregular-migration">Most industrialized countries</a> host a substantial number of undocumented residents. It’s an institutionally produced phenomenon that occurs when migrants travelling in search of safety, work, love or community encounter immigration and refugee policies that provide only limited protection to asylum-seekers and precarious and temporary permits to immigrants. Canada is no exception.</p>
<p>Our immigration system is geared towards temporary and conditional permits, many of them lacking a clear pathway to permanent residency and citizenship. Every year, <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/corporate/publications-manuals/annual-reports-parliament-immigration.html">more migrants enter Canada with temporary permits</a> than permanent ones. This leaves them undocumented when their permits expire.</p>
<p>Strategies that make it possible to circumvent our international obligations towards asylum-seekers, in particular the <a href="https://bmrc-irmu.info.yorku.ca/files/2020/03/Asylum-Seekers-Safe-Third-Country-Resilience-Final-March-2020.pdf?x82641">Safe Third Country Agreement</a> as well as an <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/01/28/it-time-change-definition-refugee">outdated definition of “refugee,”</a> also leave many people without protection and official status to remain in the country.</p>
<p>Without addressing these root causes, regularization programs are only a temporary fix to a problem that was institutionally produced. However, these programs have tremendous positive outcomes for both migrants and society. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A Black woman in tears holds a sign that says The USA is Not Safe." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476378/original/file-20220727-17-qf5tp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476378/original/file-20220727-17-qf5tp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476378/original/file-20220727-17-qf5tp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476378/original/file-20220727-17-qf5tp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476378/original/file-20220727-17-qf5tp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476378/original/file-20220727-17-qf5tp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476378/original/file-20220727-17-qf5tp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A woman cries as she participates in a protest outside the Federal Court of Canada building for a hearing regarding the designation of the United States as a safe third country for refugees in Toronto in November 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Common in the EU</h2>
<p>Regularization is <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/migrant-integration/sites/default/files/2009-04/docl_8193_345982803.pdf">a common policy tool in the European Union</a>. France, Italy, Spain, Ireland, the United Kingdom, Poland and many other countries all routinely implement regularization programs. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.ubcpress.ca/governing-irregular-migration">Spain</a>, for example, implemented ad hoc programs under both conservative and progressive governments <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/15562948.2018.1522561">that regularized more than a million people</a> between 2000 and 2006. It then launched a permanent ongoing mechanism to provide status to undocumented residents.</p>
<p>While <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/45407663">less common in Canada</a>, regularization programs have been implemented in the past. Under Pierre Trudeau’s government in 1973, some 39,000 people were regularized as part of the <a href="https://www.kairoscanada.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/The-Regularization-of-NonStatus-Immigrants-in-Canada-1960-2004.pdf">Adjustment of Status Program</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476379/original/file-20220727-1345-oswk7b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man comforts a woman, who has her hand on her face as she cries." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476379/original/file-20220727-1345-oswk7b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476379/original/file-20220727-1345-oswk7b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476379/original/file-20220727-1345-oswk7b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476379/original/file-20220727-1345-oswk7b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476379/original/file-20220727-1345-oswk7b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476379/original/file-20220727-1345-oswk7b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476379/original/file-20220727-1345-oswk7b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">An Algerian man comforts his wife as she covers her face during a 2002 news conference in Montréal. The couple was ordered deported by Immigration Canada after finding refuge in a city church, but eventually acquired permanent residence.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(THE CANADIAN PRESS/Paul Chiasson)</span></span>
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<p>But so far, the Canadian approach has been extremely restrictive, limiting access to relief programs to specific nationalities or people with specific family or work situations. <a href="https://doi.org/10.25071/1920-7336.32079">A 2002 program</a> that provided status to only 900 Algerians is a good example of the Canadian government’s lack of ambition. </p>
<p>The mention of “undocumented workers” in Fraser’s mandate letter makes us fear this restrictive trend may continue.</p>
<h2>Benefits, potential policy pitfalls</h2>
<p>Regularization programs <a href="https://fra.europa.eu/en/publication/2012/regularisations-instrument-reduce-vulnerability-social-exclusion-and-exploitation">have many benefits</a>. </p>
<p>For migrants and those concerned about their well-being and rights, such programs can provide safety, stability and access to rights and family reunification. </p>
<p>For the government, a well-designed program can “reset” the growing population of people without status or at risk of losing it, thereby remediating a problem produced by years of policies favouring temporary and conditional permits. </p>
<p>Regularization can also provide a boon to the economy and the labour market by allowing workers to move from precarious jobs to more stable and better work in sectors where their skills are most needed.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man works in a farmer's field among rows of seedlings. A tractor is in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476385/original/file-20220727-7627-okxowq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476385/original/file-20220727-7627-okxowq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476385/original/file-20220727-7627-okxowq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476385/original/file-20220727-7627-okxowq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476385/original/file-20220727-7627-okxowq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476385/original/file-20220727-7627-okxowq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476385/original/file-20220727-7627-okxowq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A worker from Mexico plants strawberries on a farm in Mirabel, Que., in May 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Graham Hughes</span></span>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-we-treat-migrant-workers-who-put-food-on-our-tables-dont-call-me-resilient-ep-4-153275">How we treat migrant workers who put food on our tables: Don't Call Me Resilient EP 4</a>
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<p>For regularization programs to be effective policy tools, they need to be inclusive and comprehensive. Here are some potential pitfalls: </p>
<p>1) Imposing a low arbitrary cap on the number of permits available, while useful for budgeting and staffing purposes, would make the program inaccessible to most. </p>
<p>2) Limiting the program to undocumented workers in specific sectors would have the sole purpose of addressing labour market needs while failing to recognize undocumented residents’ contributions in all sectors of the economy and society. <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/guardian-angels-quebec-residency-1.5962835">The “guardian angels” initiative</a> — a program that provided a pathway to permanent residency to a few asylum-seekers who worked in very specific health-care jobs during the COVID-19 pandemic — has taught us that such an approach risks imposing restrictive professional criteria that would disqualify many workers. </p>
<p>3) Providing only temporary and conditional permits would be counter-productive because those permits are largely responsible for the growing number of undocumented residents in Canada. </p>
<p>This is a historic opportunity to tackle a long-standing problem and start rethinking our immigration and refugee model. </p>
<p>In the next few months, we’ll see whether the government intends to use this policy tool to its full potential or settle for a small symbolic program that will fail to bring about long-term structural change.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/187415/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Regularization programs that help refugees and migrants become permanent residents have tremendous positive outcomes for both migrants and society.Peter Nyers, Professor of Political Science, McMaster UniversityDavid Moffette, Associate Professor of Criminology, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of OttawaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1860162022-06-30T20:54:22Z2022-06-30T20:54:22ZSupreme Court’s ‘Remain in Mexico’ ruling puts immigration policy in the hands of voters – as long as elected presidents follow the rules<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471942/original/file-20220630-5543-xzeo13.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C41%2C5574%2C3663&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A migrant from Haiti waits with others at a clinic for migrants in Tijuana, Mexico.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/SupremeCourtAsylumWaitinginMexico/14efcaea327c43fdbc163c1c38b84b70/photo?Query=%22remain%20in%20mexico%22&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=129&currentItemNo=0">AP Photo/Gregory Bull</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/slipopinion/21">very last decision of its latest term</a>, the Supreme Court released a major ruling that not only <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/30/us/politics/biden-remain-in-mexico-scotus.html">clears a barrier</a> to ending a signature policy of the Trump administration but also signals that the future of immigration policy is in the hands of the electorate.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2021/21-954">Biden v. Texas</a>, the Supreme Court rejected an effort to prevent the current president’s rollback of a Trump-era policy that requires asylum seekers arriving at the U.S. southern land border to be returned to Mexico while their claims were being processed. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/21pdf/21-954_7l48.pdf">5-4 decision</a> means that the case will be returned to the lower courts. But it also makes clear that whoever is control of the White House has the power to change directions in immigration policy – even drastic reversals of policy. It follows that presidents can do the same in other substantive legal areas as well, such as civil rights and environmental protection.</p>
<h2>The rights (and wrongs) of remain</h2>
<p>The issue in Biden v. Texas was whether the Biden administration could <a href="https://www.dhs.gov/migrant-protection-protocols">dismantle a Trump administration policy</a> formally known as <a href="https://www.dhs.gov/archive/migrant-protection-protocols-trump-administration">Migrant Protection Protocols</a> but widely referred to as the “Remain in Mexico” policy.</p>
<p>As part of an array of immigration enforcement measures, the Trump administration <a href="https://www.dhs.gov/news/2018/12/20/secretary-nielsen-announces-historic-action-confront-illegal-immigration">announced the policy in late 2018</a> in response to numbers of migrants arriving at the U.S.-Mexico border.</p>
<p>But the Migrant Protection Protocols <a href="https://www.axios.com/2022/06/22/remain-in-mexico-migrant-suicide-attempt">came under scrutiny</a> amid concerns over the <a href="https://www.americanoversight.org/investigation/conditions-in-migrant-detention-centers">safety and conditions</a> to which asylum seekers were subjected in camps under the supervision of Mexican authorities. Human Rights Watch <a href="https://www.hrw.org/tag/remain-mexico">found the policy</a> sent “asylum seekers to face risks of kidnapping, extortion, rape, and other abuses in Mexico” while also violating “their right to seek asylum in the United States.”</p>
<p>Yet an attempt by the Biden administration to eliminate the protocols was <a href="https://www.ca5.uscourts.gov/opinions/pub/21/21-10806-CV1.pdf">barred by the U.S. Court of Appeals</a> for the Fifth Circuit. The circuit judges found that the Biden administration had violated immigration law requiring the detention of asylum seekers.</p>
<p>The Supreme Court rejected this ruling. In a <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/21pdf/21-954_7l48.pdf">majority opinion</a> written by Chief Justice John Roberts – joined by Justices Stephen Breyer, Elena Kagan, Sonia Sotomayor and Brett Kavanaugh – the court held that the Biden administration’s decision to terminate the Migrant Protection Protocols did not violate federal immigration law. The state of Texas had argued that ending the “Remain in Mexico” policy violated a provision that every asylum seeker entering the country be returned or detained. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/21pdf/21-954_7l48.pdf#page=34">his dissent</a>, Justice Samuel Alito argued that the statute requires mandatory detention of migrants at the border. Justice Amy Coney Barrett’s <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/21pdf/21-954_7l48.pdf#page=53">dissent expressed</a> the view that the Supreme Court lacked the jurisdiction and that the case should be remanded back to the lower courts.</p>
<h2>Avoid the arbitrary, cease the capricious</h2>
<p>The Supreme Court’s decision means the case will be sent back to the lower court to decide, but with the removal of a major legal obstacle preventing Biden from ending the “Remain in Mexico” policy. The Supreme Court held that the immigration law does not require mandatory detention of all asylum seekers while their claims are being decided.</p>
<p>But moreover, the court made clear that the president has the discretion to change direction in immigration policy and continue, or end, policies of the previous president.</p>
<p>That might seem self-evident. But it comes after another 5-4 decision penned by Chief Justice Roberts – 2020’s <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/19pdf/18-587_5ifl.pdf">Department of Homeland Security v. Regents of the University of California</a>, which held that a president could not act irrationally in changing immigration policy.</p>
<p>In that decision, the Supreme Court <a href="https://theconversation.com/supreme-court-ruling-on-dreamers-sends-a-clear-message-to-the-white-house-you-have-to-tell-the-truth-141099">found that the Trump administration had acted in an arbitrary and capricious fashion</a> in rescinding the Obama administration’s <a href="https://www.ice.gov/daca">Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals</a> – or DACA – policy. That policy provided limited legal status and work authorization to undocumented migrants who came to the country as children, so-called Dreamers.</p>
<p>In the court’s view, the Trump administration had not adequately considered the interests of the migrant children in deciding to rescind the policy and had given inconsistent reasons about the basis for the rescission.</p>
<p>That ruling provided fuel for states to challenge the Biden administration when it attempted to roll back some Trump-era policies. For example, Arizona, along with other states, challenged Biden’s attempt to abandon a proposed rule change by the previous administration that would tighten the requirements on low- and moderate-income noncitizens seeking to come to the U.S. Although the Supreme Court initially accepted review of the case, it ultimately <a href="https://lawprofessors.typepad.com/immigration/2022/06/breaking-news-suprme-court-dismisses-state-efforts-to-defend-trump-administrations-proposed-public-c.html">dismissed the appeal and declined to decide the merits</a>.</p>
<p>In the end, the Supreme Court’s decision in Biden v. Texas stands for the simple proposition that presidential elections matter when it comes to government policy. As long as an incumbent administration follows the rules – including rational deliberation of the policy choices in front of it – it can, the Supreme Court has said, change immigration policy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/186016/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kevin Johnson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In the last decision of the term, the Supreme Court cleared a barrier for the Biden administration to end a Trump-era policy returning asylum seekers arriving in the US to camps in Mexico.Kevin Johnson, Dean and Professor of Public Interest Law and Chicana/o Studies, University of California, DavisLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1785012022-03-09T13:28:08Z2022-03-09T13:28:08ZIs Canada’s welcome to fleeing Ukrainians a new era of refugee policy?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450751/original/file-20220308-13-1l0g3dx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4789%2C3190&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A train with refugees fleeing Ukraine crosses the border in Medyka, Poland, on March 7, 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Visar Kryeziu)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In less than two weeks, <a href="https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine">more than two million people</a> have fled Ukraine following the Russian invasion. Many in the Ukrainian-Canadian community <a href="https://rli.blogs.sas.ac.uk/2022/03/04/forced-displacement-from-ukraine-notes-on-humanitarian-protection-and-durable-solutions/">have had to flee before as refugees</a> and Canada now boasts <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/ukrainian-canadians">the world’s second-largest Ukrainian diaspora</a>.</p>
<p>Canada is known to be <a href="https://www.unhcr.ca/news/canadas-2016-record-high-level-resettlement-praised-unhcr/">welcoming to refugees</a> — to those from Vietnam in the 1970s, for example, and from Syria and Afghanistan more recently — and is seen as a <a href="https://www.ubcpress.ca/crossing-laws-border">global refugee resettlement leader</a>. But Canada’s response to Ukrainians fleeing the war is different than past policy.</p>
<h2>Special admission provisions</h2>
<p>When the invasion on Ukraine escalated on Feb. 24, 2022, Justin Trudeau’s government introduced <a href="https://pm.gc.ca/en/news/news-releases/2022/02/24/canada-announces-additional-measures-support-ukraine">special admission policies </a> for Ukrainian nationals. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/2022/03/canada-to-welcome-those-fleeing-the-war-in-ukraine.html">Canada-Ukraine Authorization for Emergency Travel</a> allows an unlimited number of Ukrainians fleeing the war to apply to stay in Canada for two years. Canada is also prioritizing applications of Ukrainian nationals reuniting with family in Canada, <a href="https://pm.gc.ca/en/news/news-releases/2022/02/24/canada-announces-additional-measures-support-ukraine">extending visas and permits of Ukrainians already in Canada</a> and offering open study and work permits.</p>
<p>Canadian-Ukrainians and refugee advocates have <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-unlimited-number-ukrainians-1.6371288">welcomed the measures</a> yet also <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/8663463/non-citizens-ukraine-excluded-canadian-refugee-program-war/">raised concerns</a>. </p>
<p>First, emergency travel applicants still need a visa, whereas several countries in Europe <a href="https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/news/slovakia-permits-entry-for-ukrainians-fleeing-the-war-without-valid-travel-documents/">have suspended visa requirements</a> for Ukrainians. Canada is ramping up identification procedures, including biometrics, in central European countries receiving Ukrainian refugees, and is waiving fees for travel documents.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A large jetliner sits on a tarmac with yellow lines in the foreground." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450730/original/file-20220308-13-lrurd7.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450730/original/file-20220308-13-lrurd7.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450730/original/file-20220308-13-lrurd7.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450730/original/file-20220308-13-lrurd7.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450730/original/file-20220308-13-lrurd7.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450730/original/file-20220308-13-lrurd7.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450730/original/file-20220308-13-lrurd7.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Royal Canadian Air Force personnel load non-lethal and lethal aid for Ukraine at CFB Trenton, Ont., on March 7, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Immigration, Refugee and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) has long been plagued by <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatoon/delays-across-immigration-streams-leave-many-in-limbo-in-canada-and-overseas-1.6275084">processing delays</a>. The new measures have raised concerns that they might have an impact on other refugees awaiting resettlement to Canada, in particular those from Afghanistan.</p>
<p>Immigration Minister Sean Fraser has stated: “<a href="https://www.cbc.ca/radio/asithappens/as-it-happens-the-thursday-edition-1.6371738/bringing-unlimited-ukrainians-to-canada-won-t-stall-afghan-resettlement-minister-vows-1.6371740">We can do more than one thing at a time</a>,” and says delays in the admission of Afghan refugees is a logistical challenge on the ground rather than a processing problem. </p>
<p>IRCC has, however, pointed to processing delays to justify <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/corporate/transparency/transition-binders/minister-2021/digital-platform-modernization-transformation.html">technology acquisitions and purchases</a> to speed up decision-making on the admission of refugees. Yet the use of artificial intelligence to deal with immigration applications raises <a href="https://thepienews.com/news/africas-visa-refusal-rate-an-urgent-challenge-canadian-higher-education/">issues of discrimination and racism</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/canada-should-be-transparent-in-how-it-uses-ai-to-screen-immigrants-157841">Canada should be transparent in how it uses AI to screen immigrants</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Temporary protection</h2>
<p>The Canada-Ukraine Authorization for Emergency Travel also differs from Canada’s previous resettlement efforts since it offers only temporary protection. </p>
<p>Similarly, the European Union, for the first time, triggered its <a href="https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-6846-2022-INIT/en/pdf">Temporary Protection Directive</a> for people fleeing Ukraine, which also only provides temporary protection. </p>
<p>The EU response was designed for “<a href="https://ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/policies/migration-and-asylum/common-european-asylum-system/temporary-protection_en">mass influx</a>” scenarios. Protection is offered for one year, with the possibility to extend for two more years. Access to the asylum system in EU countries is still available to those who receive temporary protection.</p>
<p>Canada grants temporary protection for “at least” two years. But there are lingering questions on the durability of the Canadian response for those fleeing Ukraine. What happens once temporary protection measures ends is an open question. </p>
<p>While some may benefit from the new permanent residency pathway through family sponsorship, not all emergency travel applicants have family in Canada.</p>
<p>As we saw for <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2022/02/11/young-hong-kong-dissidents-were-told-canada-welcomed-them-why-cant-they-get-visas.html">those who fled Hong Kong to Canada by obtaining a visa</a>, this was just the first hurdle to overcome. Canada is offering the same option to those fleeing Ukraine. Obtaining refugee protection or accessing other immigration pathways at a later date, however, is another obstacle with no guarantee of success. </p>
<p>It remains to be seen whether Ukrainians who wish to settle in Canada permanently will be required to apply for asylum, and if many will find other permanent residence pathways such as post-graduate and employer-sponsored visas. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A dark-haired man in a suit wearing a mask shakes holds the hand of a grey-haired woman in a blue patterned sweater." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450720/original/file-20220308-13-1w5ngfu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4792%2C2902&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450720/original/file-20220308-13-1w5ngfu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450720/original/file-20220308-13-1w5ngfu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450720/original/file-20220308-13-1w5ngfu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450720/original/file-20220308-13-1w5ngfu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450720/original/file-20220308-13-1w5ngfu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450720/original/file-20220308-13-1w5ngfu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Prime Minister Justin Trudeau greets a Ukrainian-Canadian woman in Toronto a week after the invasion of Ukraine.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Who’s left out</h2>
<p>Both the Canadian and EU responses raise questions about the differential treatment of people on the move. Canada’s response only applies to Ukrainian nationals. The <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/news/press/2022/3/6221f1c84/news-comment-unhcr-welcomes-eu-decision-offer-temporary-protection-refugees.html">EU’s measure</a> includes third-country nationals fleeing the war as long as they’ve been legally living in Ukraine. Both responses leave undocumented persons without protection.</p>
<p>In 2019, the International Organization for Migration noted <a href="https://iom.org.ua/sites/default/files/irregular_migrants_in_ukraine_eng.pdf">up to 60,900 undocumented people</a> were in Ukraine, mostly from South Asia and Africa. The lack of legal protection options and reported instances of <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/au-decries-reports-ill-treatment-africans-try-flee-ukraine-2022-02-28/">racism and discrimination</a> means not everyone is able to access protection. </p>
<p>The movement of people from Ukraine will continue indefinitely. It’s still early days, and Canada’s response will undoubtedly evolve. </p>
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<img alt="A man with dark hair talks with the yellow of the Ukrainian flag in the foreground." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450741/original/file-20220308-25-1ea87am.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4200%2C2917&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450741/original/file-20220308-25-1ea87am.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450741/original/file-20220308-25-1ea87am.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450741/original/file-20220308-25-1ea87am.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450741/original/file-20220308-25-1ea87am.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450741/original/file-20220308-25-1ea87am.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450741/original/file-20220308-25-1ea87am.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Prime Minister Justin Trudeau meets with people from the Ukrainian community in Toronto, a week after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But it should be more inclusive, addressing non-Ukrainians fleeing the country as well. Further, temporary protection ensures Ukrainians are brought to safety faster. But will this kind of response become the preferred method in the future for all refugees? Are more permanent solutions forthcoming? </p>
<p>Temporary measures impose a burden on refugees to apply for numerous legal processes with no guarantee of permanent residence. As refugee advocates, we’re weary of providing the limited rights of temporary protection instead of putting in place robust asylum and resettlement programs.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/178501/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adèle Garnier receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanity Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shauna Labman is on the Executive of the Canadian Association of Refugee Lawyers.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jamie Chai Yun Liew does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Canada’s temporary protection measures to Ukrainians fleeing the war ensure they’re brought to safety faster. But will this kind of response become the preferred method for all future refugees?Adèle Garnier, Professeure adjointe, Département de géographie, Université LavalJamie Chai Yun Liew, Director of the Institute of Feminist and Gender Studies and Associate Professor, Faculty of Law at the University of Ottawa, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of OttawaShauna Labman, Associate Professor of Human Rights, Global College, University of WinnipegLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1664082021-08-22T20:07:18Z2021-08-22T20:07:18ZWe can’t compare Australia’s intake of Afghan refugees with the post-Vietnam War era. Here’s why<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417155/original/file-20210820-15-1elrjg6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=49%2C4%2C551%2C356&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AMES Australia/Wikimedia Commons</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>With the fall of Kabul this week, many commentators have noted the parallels with the fall of Saigon 46 years ago. </p>
<p>The rapid advance of the Taliban insurgents and seizing of the capital left the US humiliated once again. Dramatic images of frantic evacuations by helicopters from the US embassy triggered memories of similar scenes in Saigon in April 1975. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.npr.org/2015/04/26/402208267/remembering-the-doomed-first-flight-of-operation-babylift">Like then</a>, civilians fearing enemy retribution were desperate to escape, risking – and in some cases losing – their lives in the process.</p>
<p>Historical analogies help us make sense of a rapidly changing world. In connecting a current crisis with one past, they offer comfort in the implicit promise that we have been through this before. Despite these psychic benefits, historical analogies are more often than not inaccurate and simplistic. </p>
<p>I have written <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/no-the-fraser-era-was-not-a-golden-age-for-asylum-seekers-20120201-1qtce.html">elsewhere</a> that the Fraser government was no golden era for refugees. Far from welcoming Vietnamese refugees with open arms, the Whitlam and Fraser governments were ambivalent about these new arrivals. </p>
<p>Despite this indifference, Australian politicians in the 1970s were open to policy reform and, as good global citizens, were committed to international cooperation to address mass displacement. Between 1975 and 1991, Australia resettled over <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/BN/1011/SeekingAsylum#_ftn11">130,000 Indochinese refugees</a>.</p>
<p>We should not expect the Australian government to accept a similar number of Afghan refugees. Since the 1970s, the Australian policy landscape has changed irrevocably, meaning Kabul can never be “another Saigon” from a refugee standpoint. </p>
<p>There are four main differences between then and now that help explain this.</p>
<h2>1. Australia had no refugee policy</h2>
<p>First, when Saigon fell to the communists in 1975, the Australian government had no formal refugee policy. Australian immigration officials benefited from a blank slate. They were able to craft a refugee policy that responded directly to the Vietnamese refugee crisis. </p>
<p>Today, both major political parties have invested political capital in refusing to resettle asylum seekers who arrive by boat. Our politicians have been cornered into finding a solution for the emerging Afghan crisis within a preexisting, politically motivated refugee policy.</p>
<p>For instance, last week immigration minister Alex Hawke <a href="https://minister.homeaffairs.gov.au/AlexHawke/Pages/3000-humanitarian-places-for-afghanistan.aspx">reasserted</a> </p>
<blockquote>
<p>while the Australian government operates a generous humanitarian program, our approach to combating people smuggling remains unchanged. </p>
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<h2>2. Politics were fundamentally different</h2>
<p>In April 1975, the Whitlam Labor government was in its last seven months of power. Initially, Prime Minister Gough Whitlam was reluctant to admit anticommunist Vietnamese refugees, fearing that once they naturalised, they <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1467-8497.2012.01651.x">would vote for conservatives</a>.</p>
<p>After the Whitlam dismissal in November 1975, the incoming Fraser government was dominated by the “wet”, small “l” liberals who were socially progressive and reform-minded. </p>
<p>Back then, immigration ministers Michael MacKellar (1975-9) and Ian MacPhee (1979-82) were attuned to conversations about migrant rights and emerging multiculturalism. They adopted recommendations from the <a href="https://nla.gov.au/nla.obj-1474121432/view?partId=nla.obj-1475574660">1978 Galbally Report</a>, which called for expanding services to help newly arrived refugees settle in Australia.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1427195609262424064"}"></div></p>
<p>Although <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Immigration-Policy-from-1970-to-the-Present/Stevens/p/book/9781138187764">polls</a> in the late 1970s showed two-thirds of respondents opposed the resettlement of Vietnamese asylum seekers, what mattered was politicians did not succumb to public anxieties. The government implemented policies — such as the telephone interpreter service and SBS television — that made resettlement in a foreign land a little easier than before.</p>
<p>The “dry” revolution of the Liberal Party in the 1980s and ‘90s resulted in a focus on the economic utility of migrants at the expense of humanitarian considerations. </p>
<p>Of course, a humanitarian stream still exists in our immigration program. But, as a proportion of the population, the numbers of refugee admissions have fallen. </p>
<p>For the most part, refugee admissions have remained around 13,000 visas per year since 1979. This is despite the Australian population increasing by 11 million people during that time.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/afghan-refugees-can-no-longer-wait-australia-must-offer-permanent-protection-now-166180">Afghan refugees can no longer wait — Australia must offer permanent protection now</a>
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<h2>3. Family visas were much more common</h2>
<p>Not only have politics changed since the 1970s, the composition of the migration intake bares little similarity to today. It’s important to note that when Vietnamese refugees sought Australian visas, they had two viable channels: the humanitarian visa and family reunification visa. </p>
<p>These family visas became particularly important in the late 1980s and early '90s when refugee camps in Southeast Asia and Hong Kong were cleared and unsuccessful refugee applicants faced <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/en-au/admin/hcspeeches/3ae68faf30/statement-mr-jean-pierre-hocke-united-nations-high-commissioner-refugees.html?query=indo%20china%20refugees">repatriation to Vietnam</a>. </p>
<p>The importance of the family reunification channel cannot be overstated, as it gave Vietnamese refugees a second chance at resettlement in Australia.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Vietnamese refugees on an Air Force helicopter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417159/original/file-20210820-25-6l79gc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417159/original/file-20210820-25-6l79gc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417159/original/file-20210820-25-6l79gc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417159/original/file-20210820-25-6l79gc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417159/original/file-20210820-25-6l79gc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417159/original/file-20210820-25-6l79gc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417159/original/file-20210820-25-6l79gc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Vietnamese refugees on an Air Force helicopter to safety near Saigon in 1966.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia Commons</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In <a href="https://nla.gov.au/nla.cat-vn2844463">1985-6</a>, 65% of Vietnamese arrivals came on refugee visas, while just 35% came under the family migration program. By <a href="http://search.slv.vic.gov.au/permalink/f/1cl35st/SLV_VOYAGER1035826">1991-2</a>, more than 80% of Vietnamese migrants came on family reunification visas, while just one in seven received refugee visas. </p>
<p>These historical data tell us two things. First, they show how refugee movements evolve over years, if not decades, after the dust of the revolution settles. </p>
<p>The current <a href="https://minister.homeaffairs.gov.au/AlexHawke/Pages/3000-humanitarian-places-for-afghanistan.aspx">proposal</a> announced by immigration minister Alex Hawke to evacuate 3,000 Afghans is shortsighted and will unlikely satisfy refugee demand for resettlement in the years ahead. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-the-compassion-quotient-in-morrisons-afghan-response-needs-a-boost-166435">Grattan on Friday: The compassion quotient in Morrison's Afghan response needs a boost</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>And second, since the Howard government, successive governments have reduced the size of the family migration program relative to the skilled migration program. </p>
<p>At its peak in 1984-5, 81% of visas were allocated to family migration, 18% to skilled migration. In 2019-20, the figures were 31% family migration and 68% skilled migration. </p>
<p>The government’s definition of a family member has also narrowed over the past 40 years. An expansive definition that once included adult siblings and elderly parents has made way for one restricted to a western-centric nuclear family. </p>
<p>Without a sizeable family migration program, one wonders what will happen to Afghan asylum seekers who don’t meet the strict eligibility for refugee status.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1428127499859365888"}"></div></p>
<h2>4. Third countries allowed for a more orderly departure</h2>
<p>In the 1970s and '80s, many countries united to share the responsibility of resettling refugees from Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos. This included the countries where they were coming from, as well as the countries they transited through and their final destinations. </p>
<p>Most notably, the “<a href="https://www.unhcr.org/en-au/admin/hcspeeches/3ae68fcf0/opening-statement-mr-poul-hartling-united-nations-high-commissioner-refugees.html?query=indo%20china%20refugees">orderly departure program</a>” signed by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees and Vietnam in 1979 provided a comprehensive response to the mass displacement of people. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-photographers-war-vietnam-through-a-lens-8759">The photographer’s war: Vietnam through a lens</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>This included “in-country processing” of their applications for resettlement overseas. Though thousands still took to boats over the years, this “orderly departure program” saved many others from making the <a href="https://www.kaldorcentre.unsw.edu.au/sites/kaldorcentre.unsw.edu.au/files/Policy_Brief_8_Protected_Entry.pdf">risky and clandestine journeys</a>. In Australia’s case, no asylum seekers arrived by boat from 1981–89. </p>
<p>But this program required cooperation and goodwill between nations, particularly among neighbouring countries in southeast Asia that agreed to keep their borders open to asylum seekers, and for resettlement nations to accept large numbers of refugees. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Vietnamese refugees en route to Israel" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417157/original/file-20210820-21-m2g06t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417157/original/file-20210820-21-m2g06t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417157/original/file-20210820-21-m2g06t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417157/original/file-20210820-21-m2g06t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417157/original/file-20210820-21-m2g06t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417157/original/file-20210820-21-m2g06t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417157/original/file-20210820-21-m2g06t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Vietnamese family en route from the Philippines for resettlement in Israel in 1979.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia Commons</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Taliban takeover in Afghanistan, by contrast, may divide the international community. The Taliban has steadfast support from Pakistan and Iran; it is also likely to be recognised by Russia and China. Meanwhile, western states have recoiled at the Taliban’s human rights record and religious extremism. </p>
<p>When Afghan refugees cross into neighbouring Pakistan, Iran and other <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/19/afghanistans-ex-soviet-neighbours-panic-reject-refugees">central Asian countries</a>, it remains unclear what support they will receive or whether the UNHCR or another third party would be welcome to set up “in-country” processing for resettlement elsewhere.</p>
<p>The fall of Kabul is a seismic event that cannot be reduced to an ill-considered historical analogy. When it comes to the emerging refugee crisis, we should see this event in its full complexity. Only then can we hope to rise to the policy challenges ahead.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/166408/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rachel Stevens does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Since the 1970s, Australian immigration policy has changed dramatically, meaning Afghan refugees face far greater hurdles than those who fled Saigon after the Vietnam War.Rachel Stevens, Research fellow, Australian Catholic UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1578412021-04-28T21:11:53Z2021-04-28T21:11:53ZCanada should be transparent in how it uses AI to screen immigrants<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397435/original/file-20210427-17-yjuh3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C17%2C3840%2C2138&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Canadian government's employment of AI technology needs to be transparent.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/focus/artificial-intelligence-in-government.html">Like other governments around the world</a>, the Canadian federal government has turned to technology to improve the quality and efficiency of its public services and programs. Many of these improvements are powered by artificial intelligence (AI), which can raise concerns when introduced to deliver services to vulnerable communities.</p>
<p>To ensure responsible use of AI, the Canadian government developed the “<a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/government/system/digital-government/digital-government-innovations/responsible-use-ai/algorithmic-impact-assessment.html">algorithmic impact assessment</a>” tool, which determines the impact of automated decision systems.</p>
<h2>Pilot project</h2>
<p>The algorithmic impact assessment was introduced in April 2020, and very little is known about how it was developed. But one of the projects that informed its development has garnered concern from media: the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/radio/sunday/november-18-2018-the-sunday-edition-1.4907270/how-artificial-intelligence-could-change-canada-s-immigration-and-refugee-system-1.4908587">Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada’s (IRCC) AI pilot project</a>.</p>
<p>The AI pilot project introduced by IRCC in 2018 is an analytics-based system that sorts though a portion of temporary resident visa applications from China and India. IRCC has previously explained that because its temporary resident visa AI pilot was one of the most concrete examples of AI in government at the time, IRCC directly engaged with and provided feedback to the Treasury Board Secretariat of Canada in the development of the algorithmic impact assessment.</p>
<p>Not much is publicly known about IRCC’s AI pilot project. The Canadian government has been selective about sharing information on how exactly it is using AI to deliver programs and services. </p>
<p>A 2018 report by the Citizen Lab investigated how <a href="https://citizenlab.ca/2018/09/bots-at-the-gate-human-rights-analysis-automated-decision-making-in-canadas-immigration-refugee-system/">the Canadian government may be using AI to augment and replace human decision-making in Canada’s immigration and refugee system</a>. During the report’s development, 27 separate access to information requests were submitted to the Government of Canada. By the time the report was published, all remained unanswered. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397443/original/file-20210427-21-1f60aw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Ahmed Hussen responds to questions" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397443/original/file-20210427-21-1f60aw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397443/original/file-20210427-21-1f60aw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397443/original/file-20210427-21-1f60aw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397443/original/file-20210427-21-1f60aw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397443/original/file-20210427-21-1f60aw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397443/original/file-20210427-21-1f60aw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397443/original/file-20210427-21-1f60aw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Ahmed Hussen responds to questions about Canada’s use of artificial intelligence to help screen and process immigrant visa applications during question period in the House of Commons on Sept. 18, 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The case of New Zealand</h2>
<p>While the algorithmic impact assessment is a step in the right direction, the government needs to release information <a href="https://www.compas.ox.ac.uk/2020/how-ai-is-being-used-in-canadas-immigration-decision-making/">about what it claims is one of the most concrete examples of AI</a>. Remaining selectively silent may lead the Canadian government to fall victim to the allure of AI, as happened in New Zealand. </p>
<p>In New Zealand, a country known for its <a href="https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/europe-look-zealand-lesson-migration-110027932.html">positive immigration policy</a>, reports emerged that <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/immigration-nzs-data-profiling-illegal-critics-say/P5QDBGVDGFSI6I3NV4UHPOSBRA/">Immigration New Zealand had deployed a system to track and deport “undesirable” migrants</a>. The data of 11,000 irregular immigrants — who attempt to enter the country outside of regular immigration channels — was allegedly being used to forecast how much each irregular migrant would cost New Zealand. This information included age, gender, country of origin, visa held upon entering New Zealand, involvement with law enforcement and health service usage. Coupled with other data, this information was reportedly used to identify and deport “<a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/354135/immigration-nz-using-data-system-to-predict-likely-troublemakers">likely troublemakers</a>.”</p>
<p>Concerns surrounding Immigration New Zealand’s harm model ultimately drove the New Zealand government to <a href="https://www.zdnet.com/article/nz-to-perform-urgent-algorithm-stocktake-fearing-data-misuse-within-government/">take stock of how algorithms were being used to crunch people’s data</a>. This assessment set the foundation for <a href="https://www.data.govt.nz/assets/Uploads/Algorithm-assessment-agency-submissions-June-July-2018.pdf">systematic transparency on the development and use of algorithms</a>, including those introduced to manage migration.</p>
<p>Conversely, in Canada, advanced analytics are used to sort applications into groups of varying complexity. More specifically, in Canada, temporary resident visa applications are <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/come-canada-tool.html">reviewed for eligibility</a> and <a href="https://www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca/travel-voyage/inadmissibility-interdiction-eng.html">admissibility</a>.</p>
<p>The Canadian pilot is an automated system trained on rules established by experienced officers to identify characteristics in applications that indicate a higher likelihood of ineligibility. For straightforward applications, the system approves eligibility solely based on the model’s determination, while eligibility for more complex applications is decided upon by an immigration officer. All applications are reviewed by an immigration officer for admissibility.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/nfqPCrQmVKs?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A report by public broadcaster RNZ on Immigration New Zealand’s data profiling.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Levels of review</h2>
<p>For New Zealand, publishing information on <a href="https://www.data.govt.nz/assets/Uploads/Algorithm-Assessment-Report-Oct-2018.pdf">how, why and where the government was using AI</a> offered the opportunity to <a href="https://www.cs.otago.ac.nz/research/ai/AI-Law/NZLF%20report.pdf">provide feedback and make recommendations</a>. These efforts led to the New Zealand government developing an <a href="https://www.data.govt.nz/manage-data/data-ethics/government-algorithm-transparency-and-accountability/algorithm-charter/">Algorithm Charter</a> on the use of algorithms by government agencies. More importantly, the public can now understand how the government is experimenting with new capabilities and offer their input.</p>
<p>Although IRCC has been careful in deploying AI to manage migration, there is great benefit in being transparent about its endeavours involving AI. By engaging in <a href="https://www.ennomotive.com/open-innovation">open innovation</a> and making information about IRCC’s AI pilot project public, the government can start having meaningful conversations, sparking thoughtful innovation and encouraging public trust in its application of emerging technologies.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/157841/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lucia Nalbandian has previously received funding from the Canada Excellence Research Chair in Migration and Integration by way of a CERC in Migration and Integration MA Scholarship.
Lucia Nalbandian is currently a Research Assistant with the Canada Excellence Research Chair in Migration and Integration.</span></em></p>A responsible approach to the use of artificial intelligence by government requires transparency. The Canadian government’s use of AI in making immigration decisions warrants further investigation.Lucia Nalbandian, Research Assistant, Migration and Integration, Toronto Metropolitan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1578552021-04-15T15:45:43Z2021-04-15T15:45:43ZStatus for all: Pathways to permanent residency in Canada need to include every migrant<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394343/original/file-20210409-13-1ubihnj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C0%2C2986%2C2079&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">With the pandemic, pathways to permanent residence have been disrupted.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Graham Hughes</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Migrant rights networks, advocates and allies in Canada are calling for <a href="https://migrantrights.ca/status-for-all/">status for all</a>. And this call is <a href="https://ccrweb.ca/en/res/proposal-regularization-individuals-and-families-without-status">not new</a>. It is time to ask why status for all is essential for mitigating social inequalities laid bare by the pandemic.</p>
<p>Status for all means permanent residency for all temporary migrant workers and their families who live in Canada with <a href="https://on-irpp.org/3qRuSUJ">precarious legal status</a>. Temporary migrant workers include <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/study-canada.html">international students</a>, <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/refugees/claim-protection-inside-canada/eligibility.html">refugee claimants</a>, <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/employment-social-development/services/foreign-workers.html">temporary foreign workers</a> in low-wage occupations and migrants classified as high-skilled in the <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/work-canada/hire-temporary-foreign/international-mobility-program.html">International Mobility Program</a>. It also includes <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/insight/2013/08/17/are_they_illegal_or_illegalized.html">non-status</a> migrants. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-canada-stigmatizes-jeopardizes-essential-migrant-workers-138879">Coronavirus: Canada stigmatizes, jeopardizes essential migrant workers</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In December 2020, there were over a million <a href="https://www.thestar.com/opinion/contributors/2021/03/06/our-temporary-residents-provide-a-resource-we-cant-ignore.html">temporary migrants</a> in Canada, including international students and low- and high-wage temporary migrant workers. There were also 81,000 or more <a href="https://www.irb-cisr.gc.ca/en/statistics/Pages/volume-reports.aspx">refugee claimants</a>. But there is no reliable data on how many people <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/13645579.2020.1866339">live and work in Canada without authorization</a>.</p>
<p>They all have <a href="https://on-irpp.org/3qRuSUJ">precarious legal status</a>, which makes their vulnerability distinct. All temporary migrants are deportable. </p>
<p>There are legal limits set on their access to work, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spaa046">health care</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.7202/1060676ar">education</a>. And they must constantly meet formal and unspoken conditions to remain in Canada and access work. </p>
<p>Most have limited access to government supports, including COVID-19 <a href="https://lawofwork.ca/will-migrant-workers-be-covered-by-the-canada-emergency-response-benefit/">income supports</a>: international students were entitled to CERB but <a href="https://www.macleans.ca/education/how-the-pandemic-has-disrupted-the-lives-of-international-students-in-canada/">didn’t always qualify</a>.</p>
<p>With the pandemic, pathways to permanent residence (PR) have been disrupted, put on hold, restarted and modified — leaving many migrants in indefinite temporariness. </p>
<h2>How did we get here?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.policyalternatives.ca/publications/monitor/two-step-immigration">Two decades</a> ago, the government of Canada moved towards a <a href="https://on-irpp.org/3qRuSUJ">two-track</a>, <a href="https://maytree.com/wp-content/uploads/shaping-the-future.pdf">two-step</a> <a href="https://rsc-src.ca/sites/default/files/Immigration%20PB_EN.pdf">immigration system</a> that prioritizes the <a href="http://www.justlabour.yorku.ca/index.php?volume=19&page=foster_ab">temporary migration</a> of people with precarious legal status. </p>
<p>Three features of the new system ensure <a href="https://metcalffoundation.com/publication/canadas-choice/">migrant vulnerability</a> in the labour market, which <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/13621020902850643">continually</a> <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13621025.2015.1110280">reproduces</a> conditions that guarantee an ongoing pool of people who live and work in Canada without status.</p>
<p>First, <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/303420373_The_shifting_landscape_of_contemporary_Canadian_immigration_policy_The_rise_of_temporary_migration_and_employer-driven_immigration">employer-driven</a> selection and probation are central to the new immigration system. The two-step model allows some foreign worker categories and international students to apply for PR after meeting work-centred requirements and gives employers and <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/immigrate-canada/provincial-nominees/works.html">provinces</a> a larger role in selecting and retaining migrant workers and immigrants. As a result, employers are in control of many migrant workers’ access to work and PR.</p>
<p>The financial and political gutting of refugee determination is a second component of the system. Concerns over <a href="https://www.thestar.com/opinion/contributors/2020/08/13/we-failed-the-people-who-fled-conflict-on-the-mv-sun-sea.html">dangerous</a> and “<a href="https://doi.org/10.25071/1920-7336.38604">bogus</a>” refugees claimants led <a href="https://ccrweb.ca/en/refugee-facts">to changes</a> in the system that restrict access, create backlogs, provide <a href="https://ccrweb.ca/en/refugees-social-assistance">insufficient social assistance</a> and force people to choose survival jobs over education and training. </p>
<p>Third, the immigration <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/13621020902850643">system reproduces</a> the non-status population. Temporary migrants can fall out of status when they navigate complex and changing policies and requirements. These can include being unable to afford the fees for tests and permit renewals, relationship breakdowns, and if they leave a job for any reason such as unpaid wages, sexual harassment, or unsafe working conditions. They are subject <a href="https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-6478.2015.00706.x">to surveillance</a> and fear of deportation in their encounters with almost everyone.</p>
<p>This can make international students, refugee claimants, temporary migrant workers and non-status people feel like they are navigating a game of <a href="https://utorontopress.com/ca/producing-and-negotiating-non-citizenship-4">chutes and ladders</a>.</p>
<p>These situations breed anxiety and uncertainty. Spending time with temporary status or without status has lasting impacts. It affects physical and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03405421">mental health</a>, family dynamics and long-range <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/13621025.2014.905269">planning</a>. </p>
<p>Pre-pandemic life was already uncertain for many, and it has made things worse financially and emotionally. A way to resolve this is by ensuring that the barrier of precarious status is removed for all.</p>
<h2>Renewing the call: Status for all</h2>
<p>A year into the pandemic, migrants and <a href="https://www.kairoscanada.org/kairos-joins-statusforall-and-landed-status-now-campaign">advocates</a> are calling for status for all. Regularization strategies have been reviewed and <a href="http://accessalliance.ca/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=48&Itemid=31.">proposed</a>, and there are other proposals and programs in the works.</p>
<p>One approach hinges on the motto “good enough to work, good enough to stay.” It extends employer control because it links the granting of PR to employment criteria. It includes proposals to expedite the transition to PR for <a href="https://www.thestar.com/opinion/contributors/2021/03/06/our-temporary-residents-provide-a-resource-we-cant-ignore.html">temporary workers and international students</a> and government pilot status adjustment programs. </p>
<p>A government program rewards “deserving” <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/refugees/healthcare-workers-permanent-residence.html">workers in long-term care</a> homes with pending or denied refugee claims with a path to PR. Another program offers a path for <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/immigrate-canada/agri-food-pilot/about.html">agri-food workers</a> with 12 months of non-seasonal temporary work permit experience who meet language requirements and have an offer for non-seasonal employment. A third will give PR to up to 500 previously authorized, but currently non-status <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/corporate/mandate/policies-operational-instructions-agreements/permanent-residence-construction-workers-gta.html">construction workers</a> in the GTA and their families. And a <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/2021/04/new-pathway-to-permanent-residency-for-over-90000-essential-temporary-workers-and-international-graduates.html">recently announced new program</a> will give PR to over 90,000 essential temporary workers and international graduates.</p>
<p>While these are paths forward, they aren’t perfect. Employment-based regularization is short-term, strategic and pragmatic. It focuses on migrant workers with higher human capital, but largely leaves out refugee claimants, those without status, youth and non-working family members. The government’s pilot programs are a drop in the bucket. Most migrant workers, asylum claimants, international students and people without status will be left out. </p>
<p>Status for all centres human rights, mobility rights and decent work — for all temporary migrants with precarious legal status and their families, not just workers in some sectors or occupations. </p>
<p>Status for all can contribute to decent work by eliminating <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0306396810371766">temporariness and illegalization</a> as grounds for exploitation and harassment and can better migrants’ health and well-being. PR will not remove racism and other systemic barriers, but it is crucial. With greater security and less fear, immigrants with secure status can focus time and resources on their families and communities.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381818/original/file-20210201-13-1g0n3ld.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381818/original/file-20210201-13-1g0n3ld.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381818/original/file-20210201-13-1g0n3ld.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381818/original/file-20210201-13-1g0n3ld.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381818/original/file-20210201-13-1g0n3ld.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381818/original/file-20210201-13-1g0n3ld.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381818/original/file-20210201-13-1g0n3ld.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p>Post-pandemic immigration policy is a longer conversation that must consider the global dimensions of migration. We can work toward an equitable recovery by acknowledging the systemic failures of the Canadian immigration system. It begins with reversing the rise of two-track and two-step immigration and prioritizing permanent immigration.</p>
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<p><em>Francisco Rico-Martinez, co-director of the FCJ Refugee Centre, contributed to this piece.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/157855/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Luin Goldring receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Patricia Landolt receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.</span></em></p>The system turns employers into immigration enforcement officers and generates a population of people without status who live and work in Canada without a clear path to security of presence or livelihood.Luin Goldring, Professor of Sociology, York University, CanadaPatricia Landolt, Professor of Sociology, University of TorontoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1432992020-07-29T09:26:45Z2020-07-29T09:26:45ZNew points-based immigration system will lead to care crisis<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349906/original/file-20200728-25-kk40sk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=216%2C33%2C5317%2C2950&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/unrecognizable-health-visitor-senior-woman-during-735361741">Shutterstock/Halfpoint</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The UK is on the brink of losing the highly skilled and experienced migrant workers currently propping up the care sector. If the government does not make changes to its <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-points-based-immigration-system-further-details-statement">new points-based immigration system</a> a major crisis could emerge. These key workers cannot be replaced by digital innovations, while UK workers are increasingly reluctant to enter into what is a low-paid and extremely stressful profession.</p>
<p>It is estimated that the care sector requires 520,000 additional workers <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/jul/27/england-social-care-plans-need-timetable-and-be-a-radical-rethink-councils-funding?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other">before 2035</a> to support the UK’s ageing population. The sector currently relies on migrant workers. Most migrant care workers are set to be excluded from the government’s <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-points-based-immigration-system-further-details-statement">points-based immigration system</a>, unveiled in July, because the pay is so low. </p>
<p>From 2021, new rules will require a minimum pay threshold of £20,480. This will effectively prevent migrant care workers and home carers from entering the UK because average pay for care workers is £16,500 per year. Low pay means that, regardless of their ability to accrue transferable points, care workers will not be eligible for visas.</p>
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<p>Additionally, the work done by care workers and home carers does not meet the skills threshold for the new <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/899755/UK_Points-Based_System_Further_Details_Web_Accessible.pdf">Health and Care Visa</a>. This visa will fast track migrants in the healthcare sector, offering reduced application fees and exempting them from the <a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7274/">Immigration Health Surcharge</a> (£624 per year from October 2020). But the new visa is only for doctors, nurses and other health professionals – not care workers. Excluding care workers could potentially be disastrous. </p>
<h2>Freedom of movement</h2>
<p>For the past decade, approximately one in six – or 83,000 – of the 1.5m home care and care workers in England have been non-UK nationals. While the <a href="http://circle.group.shef.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/SC-PB_June-2020_Migrant-workers-in-England%E2%80%99s-homecare-sector.pdf">proportion of migrants</a> has been stable, their countries of origin have changed. Most migrant care workers came from outside the EU until 2012, when the current minimum pay threshold of £30,000 was introduced. After 2012, EU migrants took up care work jobs because this minimum pay threshold did not apply to free movement. </p>
<p>Brexit will end free movement for EU care workers at the same time as the new salary threshold is applied to migrants. Currently, the sector has an <a href="http://circle.group.shef.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/SC-PB_June-2020_Migrant-workers-in-England%E2%80%99s-homecare-sector.pdf">8% vacancy rate</a>. Where will desperately needed new workers come from? Leading health bodies, care workers and home carers themselves are deeply <a href="https://www.basw.co.uk/media/news/2020/may/points-based-immigration-proposals-are-concern-future-availability-social">worried about this change</a>. </p>
<p>Migrant care workers are typically <a href="https://www.niesr.ac.uk/sites/default/files/publications/Facing%20the%20Future%20Tackling%20post-Brexit%20Labour%20and%20skills%20NIESR.CIPD_.pdf">overqualified</a>. Many have professional healthcare qualifications in nursing, or prior experience in the sector. Care work does not offer adequate remuneration to reflect their skills. It involves depressed wages, long hours and difficult work conditions that <a href="https://www.niesr.ac.uk/sites/default/files/publications/Facing%20the%20Future%20Tackling%20post-Brexit%20Labour%20and%20skills%20NIESR.CIPD_.pdf">discourage British workers</a>. Migrants can endure these conditions when they are able to invest their earnings in property, business and family betterment back home (where many will hope to retire).</p>
<p>For British workers, on the other hand, care work’s low wages rarely lead to better prospects. Many find themselves pushed towards the care sector when they cannot find other work. Often this push comes at a point where they have little security in their housing and personal lives. Adding to their insecurity, around one-quarter of care work is now delivered through <a href="https://www.skillsforcare.org.uk/adult-social-care-workforce-data/Workforce-intelligence/documents/State-of-the-adult-social-care-sector/State-of-Report-2019.pdf">zero-hours contracts</a>. </p>
<p>With under-staffing, longer hours or truncated visits, even care workers working steady hours find themselves overwhelmed and exhausted. <a href="https://www.skillsforcare.org.uk/Documents/NMDS-SC-and-intelligence/Research-evidence/Impact-of-longer-working-hours-on-quality-of-care-final-report.pdf">Research shows</a> that staff shortages and longer hours lead to increased fatigue, irritability, and demotivation for workers – and these conditions can lead to potentially dangerous mistakes.</p>
<h2>Chronic labour shortages</h2>
<p>But if migrants are blocked from taking these roles then UK residents will be expected to plug the gaps. In April, the health minister, Matt Hancock, began a recruitment drive for the sector, targeting 20-39 year-olds. Previous recruitment drives have done little to alleviate the sector’s chronic labour shortages. Despite a 20% increase in <a href="https://www.homecareinsight.co.uk/fall-in-job-applications-highlights-covid-19-challenge-facing-care-providers/">advertised care roles</a> in the first quarter of 2020, applications decreased by 17.8%. Previous drives haven’t affected the sector’s 30% <a href="https://www.skillsforcare.org.uk/adult-social-care-workforce-data/Workforce-intelligence/documents/State-of-the-adult-social-care-sector/State-of-Report-2019.pdf">turnover rate</a> which has risen from 23% in 2012. Data on recruitment and retention tell us these are not desirable jobs.</p>
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<p>Current care workers report highly exploitative <a href="https://www.carehome.co.uk/news/article.cfm/id/1611239/overnight-care-workers-forced-to-sleep-in-offices-and-told-bring-your-own-bedding">conditions</a> including a lack of adequate sleeping and sanitary facilities. Precarious conditions and low pay have meant some care workers have had to use foodbanks and <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/58c638f4-46c9-11e8-8ee8-cae73aab7ccb">claim benefits</a>. Meanwhile, in the COVID-19 pandemic, female careworkers and home carers have had the highest <a href="https://www.expressandstar.com/news/uk-news/2020/06/26/social-carers-at-higher-risk-of-covid-death-compared-with-general-population">death rates</a> of all occupations for women.</p>
<p>Jobs in the rest of the healthcare sector are being transformed. The NHS has furthered its “digital first” approach during the pandemic, spurred on by social distancing requirements, through NHSX – its new digital branch, which was formed in April 2019. With annual investment of more than £1bn, <a href="https://www.nhsx.nhs.uk/about-us/what-we-do/">NHSX</a> claims to be the “largest digital health and social care transformation programme in the world”. But the video/telephone/email consultations that are proving effective for other patient and staff groups will be slow to come to care work. Though these technologies can <a href="https://rsa.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17450101.2018.1518841#.XyAGJp5Kg2w">lower costs in other health settings</a>, the feeding, cleaning and personal care which comprises care work cannot be digitised. </p>
<p>Devaluing care and labelling care workers “unskilled” has created a sense of <a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B01N2VVEJ7?tag=duckduckgo-osx-uk-21&linkCode=osi&th=1&psc=1">alienation</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/nov/17/day-in-the-life-of-a-care-worker-zero-hours-contracts">hopeless frustration</a> for British care workers. Long hours, low pay, intensely physical and emotionally demanding work can undermine the ability of carers <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/d8d82ebe-9cbc-11e8-88de-49c908b1f264">to care</a> – either for themselves or others. Improvements to pay and working conditions are long overdue. But it is a change in the new immigration scheme that is needed most, if the <a href="https://www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/research/what-can-england-learn-from-the-long-term-care-system-in-germany">emerging crisis</a> is to be averted.</p>
<p>Huge sections of the UK community rely entirely on these un-cared for workers. A coerced and reluctant workforce will most definitely affect the quality of care the sector delivers.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/143299/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Maddy Thompson receives funding from The Leverhulme Trust. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Deirdre McKay receives funding from the Arts and Humanities Research Council and the Mellon Foundation. She is Chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Studies (UK).</span></em></p>If the UK loses the highly skilled and experienced migrant workers who currently prop up the sector, a major crisis could emerge.Maddy Thompson, Postdoctoral fellow, Keele UniversityDeirdre McKay, Reader in Geography and Environmental Politics, Keele UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.