tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/kerryn-phelps-59656/articlesKerryn Phelps – The Conversation2022-05-04T05:08:15Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1824222022-05-04T05:08:15Z2022-05-04T05:08:15ZPolitics with Michelle Grattan: Dave Sharma, Allegra Spender, and Kerryn Phelps on the contest for Wentworth<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461148/original/file-20220504-20-i80enj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=2%2C14%2C1994%2C1395&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Allegra Spender/Facebook; Dave Sharma/Facebook</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-wentworth-project-allegra-spenders-profile-rises-but-polarises-182275">the Wentworth Project</a>, sponsored by the University of Canberra’s Centre for Change Governance and The Conversation, we are tapping into voters’ opinions in this seat, which appears to be on a knife edge. </p>
<p>In this podcast we talk with the two main candidates, Liberal incumbent Dave Sharma and “teal” independent Allegra Spender, as well as with Kerryn Phelps, the former independent member in the seat, who has mentored Spender and is on the advisory council of Climate 200, which is donating to her campaign.</p>
<p>Sharma says “Kerryn Phelps was a genuine independent candidate or a more traditional independent candidate. […] This independent candidate is really sort of a franchise or party operation.”</p>
<p>Sharma casts the teals, who are challenging Liberals in a range of city seats, as reflecting “populism as a political force”. </p>
<p>“People think populism only belongs to the right because of Donald Trump. I think the independents are basically harnessing a populist mood, which is similar to what Donald Trump did, which is ‘a curse on all your houses.’” </p>
<p>Morrison is not campaigning in the teal seats (though he goes to Wentworth to visit his mother). Asked how much the Prime Minister is a drag on the vote, Sharma stresses the team. “Scott Morrison is the leader of our team and the spokesperson for the team. But it’s also got a range of ministers in there who control different portfolios and we’re putting ourselves forward, and I certainly am here, as a team.”</p>
<p>Spender says “there’s a feeling amongst the community that I hear, that they feel that the parties are looking after themselves first and the community after”.</p>
<p>On a possible hung parliament, she says, “I would be willing to work with either party, or major party on supply and confidence, because I want stable government”. She would talk first to whichever side had the greatest number of seats. </p>
<p>Wentworth is seeing enormous spending. Spender says her campaign will probably spend between $1.3 and $1.5 million (with something under 30% expected to come from Climate 200). </p>
<p>She favours caps on spending and donations. “I’d like to see a cap in what individuals or companies can give. I’d like to see real time information in terms of what has been given. And then I think at the same time, you need to look at political advertising and how that is used because the government just spent $30 million spruiking their clean energy credentials […] immediately before the election being called.” </p>
<p>Kerryn Phelps says of Wentworth: “I’ve had a medical practise in Double Bay for around two decades, and so I know the community well. It’s generally seen as an affluent community, but it’s actually quite diverse. There are clearly strong beliefs about the economy and business. And so a candidate would need to have business experience. But the people also have a very strong social conscience. They’re very environmentally aware. And I think that’s particularly highlighted by the fact that it’s bounded by the harbour and the ocean.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182422/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Michelle Gratten speaks with the two main candidates in Wentworth, Liberal Dave Sharma and "teal" independent Allegra Spender, as well Kerryn Phelps, the former independent member in the seat.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1168972019-05-10T04:57:17Z2019-05-10T04:57:17ZView from The Hill: Focus groups suggest Wentworth is embracing Phelps, but Sharma helped by fear of Labor<p>Independent Kerryn Phelps has dug herself into the Sydney seat of Wentworth, with the Liberals facing a tough battle to dislodge her, according to focus group research done this week.</p>
<p>“Traditional Liberal voters who gave Phelps a go at the byelection like what they’ve seen, or haven’t seen enough and are prepared to give her another go,” the report on the research says. “The byelection handed these voters a brave new world of life with an independent”.</p>
<p>The four groups, held on Monday and Tuesday, totalled 41 “soft” or “switched” voters (those who are undecided or have switched their vote to a different party or person since the October byelection, which was prompted by Malcolm Turnbull’s resignation). The work was done by Landscape Research for The Conversation.</p>
<p>It should be stressed this is qualitative research - a guide to attitudes, and not predictive. Also, campaigns are moveable feasts, sometimes right to the end.</p>
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<p>Wentworth, which has borne its name since federation, stretches along the southern shore of the Harbour, and traditionally has been Liberal.</p>
<p>The Australian Electoral Commission describes its commercial makeup as including “finance, property, service, wholesale and retail trade, tourism, education, sport and recreation”. Its voters are more prosperous than average: in the 2016 census the median weekly household income was $2380, compared with the national figure of $1438.</p>
<p>The seat’s voters tend to be politically switched on, especially given the attention they received at the byelection.</p>
<p>The government has been hopeful that, with the efflux of time since the August coup that so angered these voters, the electorate might move to Liberal candidate Dave Sharma, who lost by just 1,850 votes in October. Sharma, 43, a former diplomat who served as ambassador to Israel, has moved into the electorate since the byelection.</p>
<p>But the research found that while some people might have voted for Phelps initially in reaction to the skewering of Turnbull, “they now see her as a viable option in her own right. The genie is out of the bottle and the Liberal party may struggle to get it back in, if enough switched voters are prepared to give Phelps a go of a full term,” the report says.</p>
<p>“Phelps should be given more time,” said an older semi-retired salesman who’d been a lifelong Liberal voter.</p>
<p>Phelps, 61, is also appealing to younger voters in a way Sharma, though much younger, so far is not. “I feel she’s very in touch with us youth much more than any other politician,” said a 19-year-old university student.</p>
<p>Phelps’ professional background and personal profile appeals to voters as much as that she is an independent. In spite of high name recognition, Sharma is far less well-known. “I have no sense of his personality,” said a semi-retired woman from Waverley.</p>
<p>Sharma has been campaigning as a self-proclaimed “Modern Liberal” - a moniker used by high-profile Victorian Liberal Tim Wilson - which has voters guessing about what that really means. “Caring while still staying economically grounded?” suggested a 20-year-old university student from Clovelly. And voters have widely noted Sharma has removed traditional Liberal branding from his campaign posters, causing them to wonder if he’s trying to distance himself from the party.</p>
<p>“I question his motivation by removing the Liberal logos,” said a 46-year-old project manager from Bellevue Hill. “It’s like a marketing ploy. It’s trying to incentivise people to vote for him,” a Rose Bay university student said.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-and-greens-unlikely-to-win-a-senate-majority-on-current-polling-greens-jump-in-essential-poll-116414">Labor and Greens unlikely to win a Senate majority on current polling; Greens jump in Essential poll</a>
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<p>Unsurprisingly, given the nature of this electorate, Scott Morrison is almost universally more trusted to lead Australia than Bill Shorten. But that alone isn’t doing enough to help bolster Sharma.</p>
<p>“Morrison is not the charismatic Turnbull or the statesmanlike Howard. At best, he is seen as ‘basically decent’, ‘honest’, ‘genuine’, ‘pleasant’, ‘well-meaning’, a ‘family-man’; a ‘larrikin’, and ‘approachable’ - someone who can ‘relate to an ordinary guy in the street’,” the research found.</p>
<p>At worst, Morrison is seen by older voters as a “Sharks-supporting salesman’, ‘a typical bogan’, ‘a typical politician’, a ‘bully’, and by younger voters as ‘the local butcher, not the PM’, ‘a privileged white guy’, ‘insipid, religious, racist’, ‘sly’ and an ‘arrogant hypocrite’”.</p>
<p>“Some see him as opportunistic for the way in which he claimed the leadership, describing him as ‘smirking’, ‘smug’ and a ‘backstabber’. The youngest voters (aged 20-23) don’t buy that Morrison wasn’t involved in Turnbull’s downfall. Middle-aged and older voters don’t particularly blame Morrison but see the Liberals as undifferentiated from Labor with respect to toppling their leaders,” the report said.</p>
<p>The PM’s message about strong economic management resonates in this affluent inner city seat, as does the Liberal advertising message “The Bill you can’t afford” with those who are financially engaged. Labor’s “Top end of town” tag for Morrison isn’t achieving the desired cut through here because they don’t see themselves as the top end of town. Middle-aged and older voters feel Shorten’s policies will hurt many of them, even if they are not personally affected by franking credits and negative gearing. One young student lamented the cutting back of investment opportunities in the future.</p>
<p>Labor is viewed as playing class politics with its negative gearing and franking credits policies. While many voters agree with the intent (to make things more equitable), they think the policies are poorly crafted and have unintended consequences not thought through. This leads them to question Labor’s credibility and capability in government, if they can’t target these policies correctly. “It’s a wrongly-targeted, mean policy,” one older voter said of changes to negative gearing. “It’s ideological, but a damp squib because it’s grandfathered and still allows negative gearing on new properties,” said another.</p>
<p>(Phelps is opposing Labor’s negative gearing and franking credits policies “in their current form”.)</p>
<p>A factor working for Sharma is voters having an eye to the national outcome - as distinct from that in Wentworth - and not wanting a Labor win. “An independent vote is a wasted vote, as much as I like Kerryn. I want my vote to help go towards a Liberal government,” said a 52-year-old female travel specialist from Bellevue Hill. And as one switched Liberal described voting for an independent: “A change is as good as a holiday. But sometimes holidays have to be short.”</p>
<p>Shorten isn’t much liked, and some voters are sceptical of his stress on stability. Despite Labor’s adoption of rules making it hard to change its PM, some think Shorten’s “wishy washy” leadership is being tolerated by Labor for now, until someone replaces him later. “He’s likely to join the revolving door that is our prime ministership,” said a woman in her 30s from North Bondi.</p>
<p>As they lament Australia’s uninspiring leadership, these Wentworth voters gaze across the ditch. As one puts it:“We are all looking at [Jacinda] Ardern and saying: why can’t we have a leader like that?”</p>
<p>Most of these voters include climate change when they name the issues important for the nation. (Indeed a couple of sceptics were howled down.) But in Wentworth this is not a “climate change election”. Rather, seen to be having the right views on the subject is just a necessary condition for being in the race.</p>
<p>“You can’t be elected now by saying you don’t believe,” said one younger voter from Bellevue Hill. “Even Tony Abbott is talking about the environment in a more sustainable way.”</p>
<p>Notwithstanding their views on climate change, some are more circumspect when it comes to specifics like coal mining. While both younger and older voters are looking for a transition away from coal, and many eschew the Adani mine going ahead, they acknowledge there is no quick fix in the short term. “We’re not ready to go 100% to renewables yet,” said one younger voter. “You take away coal and a company like BHP will go broke,” said another.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/look-at-me-look-at-me-how-image-conscious-but-visionless-leaders-have-made-for-a-dreary-campaign-116421">Look at me! Look at me! How image-conscious but visionless leaders have made for a dreary campaign</a>
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<p>A stable economy and budget surplus are also seen as critical for the nation. Even those with scant understanding of fiscal policy intuitively believe a budget surplus is a good thing. “It means more money to spend on hospitals and schools,” said a 40 year old administration officer from Paddington.</p>
<p>Wentworth voters are also concerned about living in an equitable and inclusive country, including treating refugees and indigenous people better, and they point to the policy failures of both major parties in this regard.</p>
<p>“It’s all about expectations. You expect the Liberals to be opposed to refugees, whereas Labor, you expect to be disappointed,” said one participant.</p>
<p>Local issues weighing on these voters included housing affordability in the area, over-development, traffic congestion and public transport.</p>
<p>Wentworth remains one of the most interesting individual contests in this campaign, in which there has been so much talk about centre right independents, often women, who are small-l liberal on social issues but inclined to be Liberal-leaning on key economic questions. One could argue that Wentworth voters are spoilt for choice, in that both Phelps and Sharma tick many of the boxes important to them.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/116897/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Wentworth remains one of the most interesting individual contests in this campaign.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1114222019-02-10T19:15:55Z2019-02-10T19:15:55ZCould Tony Abbott lose to an independent? If the zeitgeist is any guide, he’s on thin ice<p>Strangely enough, there’s a link between “Kevin07” as an electoral phenomenon and the recent successes of independents such as Kerryn Phelps (Wentworth), Cathy McGowan (Indi), and Rebekha Sharkie (Mayo). All three now hold once safe Coalition seats.</p>
<p>And the link is one that may prove influential in 2019, particularly for Zali Steggall, who is challenging Tony Abbott in Warringah.</p>
<p>As in the case of Kevin07, the formerly Coalition-friendly independents, which is also how Steggall positions herself, found a way of giving life-long centre-right voters permission to break ranks without feeling like they were being disloyal. </p>
<p>The aim is to present as essentially similar to the incumbent conservative, but better. Modernised. Updated. </p>
<p>The implicit message to voters was that it was their party that had left them, not the other way around. </p>
<p>Such a sentiment may be ripe for expression in Warringah which, while economically conservative, has emerged as demonstrably more progressive than its long-time MP, Abbott. The blue-ribbon jewel was among the <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/1800.0%7E2017%7EMain%20Features%7ENew%20South%20Wales%7E9">most pro-equality electorates</a> in the country in the 2017 postal survey. </p>
<p>Beaten only by Wentworth, the two inner-Sydney electorates were the leading Liberal-held “yes” seats in NSW. </p>
<p>And it is to these voters that new and fresh quasi-independent candidates like Steggall seek to speak – voters whose Liberal loyalties have been tested by Abbott’s blunt antipathy for social reform and particularly his denial of tough Australian action against global warming. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/liberals-trounced-in-huge-wentworth-swing-bringing-a-hung-parliament-105351">Liberals trounced in huge Wentworth swing, bringing a hung parliament</a>
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<h2>Labor’s unusual ‘07 campaign</h2>
<p>The trick is to be close, but not the same, and it has a record of working in conservative-minded electorates. </p>
<p>Underpinning Kevin Rudd’s defeat of John Howard in 2007 was a carefully calibrated reassurance that Howard’s Australia – in which political correctness had been demonised and social reform moved at a glacial pace – would continue even with a change to a Labor government.</p>
<p>Labor’s plan was to strip the election of the usual contrast between parties, reducing the choice before voters to John Howard or a kind of John Howard 2.0.</p>
<p>In a number of ways, Rudd presented as a prime ministerial simulacrum, updated but only where required to: prioritise “working families”, take faster action on climate change, and offer an exciting public investment bridge to the digital future (the NBN). </p>
<p>So successful was this unusual proposition, it tended to minimise other policy differences between the parties and neutralise the usual fear of change itself among cautious voters.</p>
<p>From a marketing perspective, it was daring given Rudd was in fact the leader of the opposing Labor Party.</p>
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<p>Crucially, it sought simultaneously to share in the government’s credit for economic stewardship – moderate inflation, strong employment, and a <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/BudgetReview_2007-_2008/Key_Features">healthy budget surplus</a> again – while outflanking Howard on his right.</p>
<p>Of course there was more to the 2007 changeover than mere campaigning, not least being Howard’s odious industrial relations laws (WorkChoices), an inconvenient <a href="https://www.forbes.com/2007/11/07/australia-rates-howard-markets-econ-cx_rd_1107markets16.html#29cb265c7f60">mid-campaign cash rate hike</a> (to 6.75%), and simple fatigue after a dozen years of Coalition rule.</p>
<p>Even so, there’s no denying that with his lay-preacher persona, non-union background, and claim to be fiscally conservative, Rudd deftly positioned himself as the safe choice for those voters considering change but still concerned with budget discipline and creeping permissiveness.</p>
<p>Similar to Labor’s 2007 strategy, Phelps, McGowan and Sharkie have offered the tribally conservative voter a reduced-risk alternative to the status quo. Or, as some have coined it, “continuity through change”. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/politics-podcast-cathy-mcgowan-and-rebekha-sharkie-on-the-role-of-community-candidates-103169">Politics Podcast: Cathy McGowan and Rebekha Sharkie on the role of community candidates</a>
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<p>But there are also key differences. While Rudd promised measured economic modernisation in a socially-conservative manifesto - opposing same-sex marriage, for example - the new breed of once-were-Liberals flip that around. </p>
<p>They tend to emphasise the low tax, pro-business instincts of conservatives, but are more left-leaning on social policy and the environment. This turns out to reflect much of the electorate also – including many Liberal voters.</p>
<h2>Can Steggall do the same in Warringah?</h2>
<p>It’s a formula with a particular piquancy now given 2019 marks ten years since Tony Abbott rolled Malcolm Turnbull for the Liberal leadership over emissions trading. </p>
<p>An acrimonious decade on, and with no government climate or energy policy to speak of, voters’ patience has been strained to breaking point. The endless point-scoring and division has nudged moderately inclined Liberals within the grasp of new independents.</p>
<p>Fittingly, these events are coming to a head most threateningly for the government in Abbott’s own stronghold of Warringah. </p>
<p>Abbott’s vulnerability turns on three things: the standing of the Morrison government come polling day (which may or may not have improved), the campaign prowess of the Steggall operation (unknown), and the extent of declining loyalty by once solid supporters in his electorate. All are in flux.</p>
<p>Steggall’s threshold objective must be to drive Abbott’s primary vote south of 45%. That will not be easy. In 2016, his primary vote tanked by some 9% but he still managed to hold the seat without need for <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/warr/">second preferences at 51.65%</a>.</p>
<p>Still, if the zeitgeist is any guide, Steggall’s presentation as “the Liberal for the future against the Liberal for the past” will be appealing to those voters peeved at Abbott’s undermining of Turnbull and specifically the right-wing insurgency against the government’s National Energy Guarantee. </p>
<p>It could also resonate strongly with Liberal backers who were appalled at Abbott’s starring, if roundly ineffective, campaign against marriage equality.</p>
<p>Despite its unwavering support for Abbott through nine elections, <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/1800.0%7E2017%7EMain%20Features%7EResults%7E1">Warringah voted</a> “yes” to legalising same-sex marriage at the rate of 75% compared to the national rate of 62%. It even exceeded support in the most progressive jurisdiction – the ACT.</p>
<p>Steggall’s backers believe Abbott’s famous resistance to a reform his constituents found uncontroversial will prove it is his failure to move with the times that will force them to move their votes.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/111422/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Kenny does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Just as with Kevin07, formerly Coalition-friendly independents gave life-long centre-right voters a way to break ranks without feeling like they were being disloyal. Zali Steggall is doing the same.Mark Kenny, Senior Fellow, Australian Studies Institute, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1078912018-11-29T02:33:59Z2018-11-29T02:33:59ZMalcolm Turnbull accuses his critics of “paranoia”<p>Malcolm Turnbull has struck back angrily at a report that he has been helping independent Kerryn Phelps, his successor in Wentworth, as chaos continues to fracture the Liberals.</p>
<p>Responding to a front page-lead story in The Australian headed
“Turnbull plays invisible hand”, the former prime minister tweeted,
“Attribution bias - blaming others for the consequences of your own
actions is a common symptom of paranoia.</p>
<p>"Imagining "invisible” people are out to get you is also a classic
symptom. Not often on the front page of course…“</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/coalition-angst-as-turnbull-plays-invisible-hand/news-story/51231950ff5f8718080369137bcb8d0a">report</a> said Turnbull had been in regular contact with Phelps and had had a former electorate office staffer work for the new member for three days to help in the transition.</p>
<p>It quoted a senior Liberal source saying they believed Turnbull was advising Phelps on strategy and that his hands were "all over” the defection of Liberal MP Julia Banks to the crossbench this weel.</p>
<p>The report also said that Phelps had counselled Banks before her defection.</p>
<p>The story was another manifestion of the deep bitterness still
consuming the Liberals from the leadership coup, which has been
reactivated by the Banks’ defection. Banks made a stinging attack on
those who ousted Turnbull in her speech to parliament.</p>
<p>Phelps said on Thursday that Turnbull had had no contact with her
during the Wentworth campaign. Afterwards he had offered assistance
for a smooth transition. She said she and Turnbull had not discussed
Banks.</p>
<p>She told Sky that Turnbull “was very kind in being able to allow a couple of his former staff members to come in to do a handover to my staff members to make sure that they understood which grant programs needed to be progressed and which organisations we needed to be in contact with.”</p>
<p>Phelps confirmed that Banks had approached her before defecting.</p>
<p>“Julia reached out to me for some consultation about what that process
might look and feel like, and I indicated that I would be there to
support her in that transition and the three female crossbenchers were
there to support her when she gave her statement,” she said.</p>
<p>Meanwhile embattled right wing Liberal Craig Kelly, who faces losing
preselection, has changed tactics in his fight to survive.</p>
<p>After earlier repeatedly refusing to rule out defecting to the
crossbench, Kelly - wearing a T-shirt with the face of Robert Menzies
on it - <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/i-certainly-wont-be-defecting-from-the-liberal-party/10565614">told</a> the ABC he would not do so.</p>
<p>He said he had a contract with the people of his Hughes electorate to
serve through the term as a Liberal member.</p>
<p>He did not rule out running as an independent if he lost preselection,
saying “I haven’t considered that”. He claimed to be confident of being
re-endorsed – although the numbers are against him.</p>
<p>Posing with the T-shirt wearing Kelly, Tony Abbott tweeted, “Always
good to be with a real Liberal!”.</p>
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<p>The Senate on Thursday voted to alter the government’s sitting
timetable for next year to ensure Senate estimates hearings will he
held on the April 2 budget before the election is called. The
timetable released earlier this week would not have had estimates
hearing before the poll.</p>
<p>Labor is also introducing in the Senate its own bill to protect LGBTI
students against discrimination, after negotiations between the
government and the opposition on a bill reached an impasse.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/107891/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Malcolm Turnbull has struck back angrily at a report that he has been helping independent Kerryn Phelps, his successor in Wentworth, as chaos continues to fracture the Liberals.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1042622018-10-25T19:23:07Z2018-10-25T19:23:07ZMore than a century on, the battle fought by Australia’s suffragists is yet to be won<p>When Kerryn Phelps claimed her <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/kerryn-phelps-kicks-liberals-into-minority-government-20181020-p50ayl.html">historic by-election win</a> on the weekend, she called the triumph a “a victory for democracy”, signalling “a return of decency, integrity and humanity to the Australian government”. </p>
<p>As well as taking a progressive stand on social issues, Phelps vowed to represent all those who were disgusted by the internal brawling and destructive power plays of Australia’s elected officials. <a href="https://www.marieclaire.com.au/kerryn-phelps-wentworth-by-election-victory">One commentator rejoiced</a> that people who were “tired of the spineless and incompetent politicians who are intent on destroying the joint” were finally getting their moment in the sun. “Hear us roar,” the journalist cheered, channelling a mutinous <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V6fHTyVmYp4">Helen Reddy</a>.</p>
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<p>Was Phelps aware that her roll call of values and virtues — decency, integrity, humanity — harked back to a much earlier age of grassroots political activism led by women?</p>
<p>The idea that institutional outliers are the new brooms that can sweep clean the filthy floors of national legislatures has a far-reaching lineage. “Cleansing the Augean stables” has long been an allegory for ridding an administration of corruption. Most recently, we have seen what can happen when a perceived underdog promises to “drain the swamp” of American government, as Donald Trump did.</p>
<p>Trump was hailed as the hero of the marginalised and silenced — those buried by the sludge of Washington — for being a man of steel, able to leap petty bureaucrats (and nasty women) in a single bound.</p>
<p>But the “new brooms” metaphor for scrubbing the halls of power has more often been gendered female. This is particularly true in Australia, where white women had a singular advantage: they were the first in the world to win the right to stand for parliament, a paradigm-shifting reform that was ushered in by the passage of the Commonwealth Franchise Act in 1902. Pre-figuring Phelps, Australia’s trail-blazing political reformers at the turn of the 20th century were fully enfranchised women intent on using their new super power to puncture the fetid pustule of federal parliament.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/quotas-are-not-pretty-but-they-work-liberal-women-should-insist-on-them-103517">Quotas are not pretty but they work – Liberal women should insist on them</a>
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<p>One of the arguments against women’s eligibility to sit in parliament was that parliament, like the pub, was “no place for a lady”. “If such were true,” countered Nellie Martel, who stood for election to the Senate in 1903, “women should be sent there to purify it, and it certainly required cleansing.” </p>
<p>The notion that women would “purify politics” through their inherent female qualities of munificence, rectitude and sobriety — as well as maternal skills of negotiation, conciliation and care — was central to the suffragists’ moral claim to political equality.</p>
<p>Vida Goldstein, who also ran for the Senate in 1903, adopted a light-hearted way to <a href="http://www.archive.org/stream/twentiethcentury56londuoft/twentiethcentury56londuoft_djvu.txt">describe</a> the need for women’s direct parliamentary representation:</p>
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<p>Man seems to be constitutionally unable to keep things tidy.</p>
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<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/241965/original/file-20181024-48715-1sh9qmg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/241965/original/file-20181024-48715-1sh9qmg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=844&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241965/original/file-20181024-48715-1sh9qmg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=844&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241965/original/file-20181024-48715-1sh9qmg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=844&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241965/original/file-20181024-48715-1sh9qmg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1061&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241965/original/file-20181024-48715-1sh9qmg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1061&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241965/original/file-20181024-48715-1sh9qmg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1061&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Vida Goldstein.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NLA</span></span>
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<p>As I write in <a href="https://www.textpublishing.com.au/books/you-daughters-of-freedom-the-australians-who-won-the-vote-and-inspired-the-world">my new book</a>, during her 1903 campaign for the Senate Goldstein joked that it had always been woman’s lot to tidy up after men: “He leaves the bathroom in a state of flood, his dressing-room a howling wilderness of masculine paraphernalia, his office a chaos of ink and papers” — and this disorderly boor was equally “untidy in the nation”. No wonder the “national household” was in such “a terrible state of muddle”. Women’s vote and their presence in parliament would, according to Goldstein, lead to a more principled approach to “national housekeeping”.</p>
<p>Such gendered metaphors and stereotypes were not challenged by Edwardian-era women’s rights advocates. It was a later generation of feminists whose demand was to be liberated from the role of “angel of the hearth” or spiritual redeemer — God’s Police, the hand rocking the cradle and wielding the broom.</p>
<p>Suffrage campaigners of the early 20th century proudly accepted their “natural” function as civilisers of the civilisers. (It’s sobering to remember that the same act that gave Australia’s white women their leading global edge also disenfranchised all Indigenous Australians on the grounds that, as Senator Alexander Matheson argued in <a href="https://historichansard.net/senate/1902/19020410_senate_1_9/#subdebate-3-0">debating the Franchise Bill</a>, “if every one of these savages and their gins [were put] upon the federal rolls” the nation would be “swamped by aboriginal votes”).</p>
<p>In settler-colonial White Australia, suffragists simply wanted the political power to make the white man’s burden woman’s burden too.</p>
<p>But the first-wave feminists would be rolling in their <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/04/opinion/women-statues.html">largely unmarked</a> graves to know that women joining the ranks of parliamentarians barely changed their male colleagues’ outlook and demeanour at all. Some women (Margaret Thatcher, for example) revelled in the opportunity to play the hawk and had no qualms about ruffling geopolitical and domestic feathers in the most noxious fashion. Other women have found it more difficult to adopt moves from the playbook of toxic masculinity: belligerence, bellicosity and bullying.</p>
<p>Recently, we’ve seen female MPs in Australia call time’s up — or at least time-out — on such on-field antics, particularly when the aggression is directed at women themselves. In August this year, Liberal MP Julia Banks <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/aug/29/liberal-mp-julia-banks-to-quit-parliament-next-election-citing-bullying-and-intimidation">announced her decision to quit federal politics</a>, citing the “cultural and gender bias, bullying and intimidation” of women in parliament.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-woman-problem-no-the-liberals-have-a-man-problem-and-they-need-to-fix-it-102339">A 'woman problem'? No, the Liberals have a 'man problem', and they need to fix it</a>
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<p>It’s worrisome that the prevailing culture of sexism has changed so little in over a century of parliamentary politics being a gender-inclusive workplace. “We were subjected to ridicule, contempt, abuse and to anything but flattering cartoons,” lamented Nellie Martel after her 1903 Senate campaign. The limits of participatory democracy are sorely tested by such cultural intransigence.</p>
<p>Despite Kerryn Phelps and her support crew being dressed in <a href="https://www.stylist.co.uk/life/pantone-colour-of-the-year-2018-ultra-violet-feminism-suffragettes/178623">suffragette purple</a> — the symbolic colour of courage — she did not claim her victory as a win for women as such. Rather, as a seasoned and astute campaigner, Phelps flew the flag for the non-party vote. By running as an independent, she was able to channel the disaffection and discontent of a cosmopolitan community.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/241970/original/file-20181024-48721-9z3ys.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/241970/original/file-20181024-48721-9z3ys.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=214&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241970/original/file-20181024-48721-9z3ys.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=214&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241970/original/file-20181024-48721-9z3ys.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=214&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241970/original/file-20181024-48721-9z3ys.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=269&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241970/original/file-20181024-48721-9z3ys.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=269&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241970/original/file-20181024-48721-9z3ys.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=269&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Suffragettes graffiti on a wall to make their feelings known, 1900-1910.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NLA</span></span>
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<p>This call to grassroots activism was also a hallmark of the Federation-era feminists. Vida Goldstein deplored what she called “the ticket system” of politics. In her view, the party machine led to “disastrous consequences”: feeble candidates, selfish and greedy egoists, mere “log-rollers” who had been trundled into parliament purely because they were on the party’s ticket. Oftentimes, such politicians were “men of doubtful character, men whose social life is a scandal” and who could be found “intoxicated” in parliament.</p>
<p>The teetotalling Goldstein ran for parliament as an independent five times – in vain. Contemporaries believed she would have easily won if she’d stood for the Labor Party. Women, it transpired, voted more along class than gender lines.</p>
<p>It may well be that neither female voters nor female politicians turned out to be the democratic disinfectants that the women who fought for the franchise expected. Perhaps, the degree of muck and debris to which they were exposed as fully enfranchised citizens was more insidiously entrenched than they could have imagined from outside the stable. </p>
<p>Or, maybe, women just aren’t that fond of cleaning. But one insight from the Federation era of hope and optimism still rings true. Goldstein was ever <a href="http://www.archive.org/stream/twentiethcentury56londuoft/twentiethcentury56londuoft_djvu.txt">at pains to</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… give honour where honour is due: to the men of Australia, who have grown so far in democratic sentiment that they can tolerate the idea of living with political equals.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Living with and as political equals is surely the most potent solution for reform.</p>
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<p><em>Clare Wright is the author of You Daughters of Freedom: The Australians who won the vote and inspired the world, by Text Publishing.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/104262/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Clare Wright receives funding from the Australian Research Council. She is on the Expert Advisory Panel of the Australian Republic Movement.</span></em></p>The early suffragists would be rolling in their graves to know that women joining the ranks of parliamentarians barely changed their male colleagues’ outlook and demeanour at all.Clare Wright, Associate Professor in History, La Trobe UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1045632018-10-21T01:12:51Z2018-10-21T01:12:51ZWentworth byelection called too early for Phelps as Liberals recover in late counting<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/241509/original/file-20181021-105764-1og15kf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Prime Minister Scott Morrison concedes the Liberals lost the byelection in Wentworth on Saturday night- but postal votes have added uncertainty to the outcome.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Dan Himbrechts</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><strong>UPDATE SUNDAY NIGHT</strong>: Update Sunday night: Phelps has <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-22844-152.htm">extended her lead to 1,626 votes</a> this afternoon. The correction of errors in two booths identified by Bonham increased her lead to 1,862 votes, while additional postals subtracted. There are probably about 4,000 postals to come by November 2, but Sharma would need about 70% of them to win; he’s currently winning 63.6% of postals. Unless there are further substantial counting errors that assist Sharma, Phelps has very likely won Wentworth.</p>
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<p>On Sunday morning, independent Kerryn Phelps leads the Liberals in the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wentworth-by-election-2018/results/">Wentworth byelection</a> by a 50.6-49.4 margin, a swing against the Liberals of 18.4% since the 2016 election. Primary votes were 43.0% for the Liberals’ Dave Sharma (down 19.3%), 29.3% Phelps, 11.5% for Labor’s Tim Murray (down 6.2%) and 8.6% Greens (down 6.3%). </p>
<p>Early on election night, it appeared certain the Liberals would lose. After 11pm, pre-poll booths dramatically narrowed Phelps’ margin from 54.4-45.6 to 51.9-48.1. In particular, the <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/results/fed-2018-10-wentworth-results.htm">Rose Bay pre-poll</a> booth gave Sharma almost 70% after preferences, with over 6,400 formal votes at that booth. Almost 5,200 formal postals then split to Sharma by 64.4-35.6, reducing Phelps’ lead to her current 884 vote margin. Two hospital booths counted Sunday morning also damaged Phelps.</p>
<p>Another 1,266 postals are awaiting processing, and probably another 4,000 will arrive by the deadline for postal votes reception on November 2. If Sharma’s dominance with postals continues, he could win Wentworth after it was called for Phelps early on election night. In byelections, there are very few votes other than postals to be counted after election day; in general elections, Liberals usually perform badly on absent votes.</p>
<p>Analyst <a href="http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2018/10/wentworth-live-majority-on-line-again.html">Kevin Bonham</a> has identified two discrepancies in election-day booths where Phelps performed much worse on preferences than expected, given primary votes at those booths. If these booths are corrected in Phelps’ favour, she will gain enough votes to offset the postals, but there may be other errors that assist Sharma. Election-night figures will be carefully rechecked over the next few days.</p>
<p>If corrections to the election-night count favour Phelps, she is very likely to win. If there is no substantial correction or corrections cancel out, Sharma is about a 60% chance to win, given his dominance on postals, of which there are probably about 5,000 left to count.</p>
<p>Wentworth has <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wentworth-by-election-2018/">existed since Federation</a>, and had always been held by the Liberals or their conservative predecessors. The loss of Wentworth would deprive the Coalition of its parliamentary majority, and is thus more important than the average byelection, where the government’s majority is not threatened, allowing voters to lodge a protest vote without risking the government.</p>
<p>On early counting figures, there were many media commentators talking about a “record” swing against the Liberals. Bonham said that, though the swings were large, they were not a record even at that time. Talking about a “two party” swing against the Liberals is wrong, because Labor did not make the final two at this byelection.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/by-elections/fed-2018-10-wentworth.htm">Poll Bludger</a> has details of the five Wentworth ReachTEL polls, taken from August 27, three days after the change of PM, to October 15. These polls were conducted for various left-wing groups. In the August 27 poll, Sharma had 34.6% of the primary vote, but recovered to 43.0% on September 27, before slumping back to 33.4% on October 15. </p>
<p>Phelps had 22.5% on September 17, but slumped to 16.7% on October 2, then recovered to 26.3% on October 15. Murray was up to 25.7% on October 2, but fell back to 22.0% on October 15.</p>
<p>Given the disparity between the pre-poll and postal votes and election-day votes, it is likely that polling throughout the Wentworth campaign understated the Liberals’ vote; seat polls are notoriously unreliable. The Liberals’ bad parliamentary week resulted in a worse election-day performance, but pre-poll and postal votes were not as affected by last week.</p>
<p>Media expectations were that if Phelps made the final two, she could defeat Sharma. If Murray made the final two, Sharma would win. As a result, people who wanted Sharma defeated switched to Phelps. The electoral commission will do a two-party count between Sharma and Murray, but probably not for at least two weeks. Sharma will win this count, vindicating the switch to Phelps.</p>
<p>Turnbull’s personal vote was probably worth about ten points to the Liberals in Wentworth. After a large fall following Turnbull’s exit, the Liberals’ primary vote was improving in ReachTEL polls of Wentworth before the events of the last two weeks appeared to push it down again.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/poll-wrap-worst-reaction-to-midterm-pm-change-in-newspoll-history-contrary-polls-in-duttons-dickson-102186">Poll wrap: Worst reaction to midterm PM change in Newspoll history; contrary polls in Dutton's Dickson</a>
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<p>On my <a href="http://adrianbeaumont.net/reachtel-50-50-tie-in-wentworth-and-where-morrison-could-have-problems/">personal website</a>, I said that the Coalition under Scott Morrison could have problems among better-educated voters, and that Morrison’s social conservatism would not appeal to an electorate that voted Yes to same-sex marriage by an 81-19 margin, the fourth highest vote for SSM in a federal seat.</p>
<p>Electorates like Wentworth have voted Liberal for economic reasons even though they are socially progressive. If the Liberals lose Wentworth, it would be because they had appeared to become too socially conservative and too sceptical of climate change action under Morrison. Phelps was a good fit for Wentworth, being <a href="https://www.afr.com/news/kerryn-phelps-calls-for-5year-freeze-on-superannuation-opposes-franking-changes-20181017-h16s38">economically conservative</a> but socially progressive.</p>
<h2>US midterm elections update</h2>
<p>I wrote for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/10/19/us-mid-terms-minus-twenty-days/">The Poll Bludger</a> on Friday about the November 6 US midterm elections. Democrats are likely to win the House, but Republicans are likely to retain the Senate. Trump’s ratings have improved.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/104563/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>After election night reports of a thumping win in by independent Kerryn Phelps, the Liberals have recovered significantly in postal votes - so much so, the result is now uncertain.AAdrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1044782018-10-05T08:40:50Z2018-10-05T08:40:50ZPoll wrap: Phelps slumps to third in Wentworth; Trump’s ratings up after fight over Kavanaugh<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/239453/original/file-20181005-72110-1qdrmpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Independent Kerryn Phelps has slumped in the polls ahead of the Wentworth byelection, which was likely caused by changing her position on preferences.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Mick Tsikas</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Wentworth byelection will be held on October 20. A <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/04/wentworth-byelection-liberal-vote-collapses-as-poll-shows-safe-seat-now-a-close-contest">ReachTEL poll</a> for independent Licia Heath’s campaign, conducted September 27 from a sample of 727, gave the Liberals’ Dave Sharma 40.6% of the primary vote, Labor’s Tim Murray 19.5%, independent Kerryn Phelps 16.9%, Heath 9.4%, the Greens 6.2%, all Others 1.8% and 5.6% were undecided.</p>
<p>According to <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/10/05/further-friday-free-for-all/">The Poll Bludger</a>, if undecided voters were excluded, primary votes would be 43.0% Sharma, 20.7% Murray, 17.9% Phelps, 10.0% Heath and 6.6% Greens. Compared to a September 17 ReachTEL poll for GetUp!, which you can read about on my <a href="http://adrianbeaumont.net/wentworth-reachtel-poll-and-left-vs-far-right-contest-in-brazil/">personal website</a>, primary vote changes were Sharma up 3.7%, Murray up 3.3%, Phelps down 4.8%, Heath up 5.6% and Greens down 6.0%. Phelps fell from second behind Sharma to third behind Murray and Sharma.</p>
<p>Between the two ReachTEL polls, Phelps announced on September 21 that she would recommend preferences to the Liberals ahead of Labor, backflipping on her previous position of putting the Liberals last. It is likely this caused her slump. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/poll-wrap-labor-drops-in-newspoll-but-still-has-large-lead-nsw-reachtel-poll-tied-50-50-103597">Poll wrap: Labor drops in Newspoll but still has large lead; NSW ReachTEL poll tied 50-50</a>
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<p>While more likely/less likely to vote a certain way questions always overstate the impact of an issue, it is nevertheless bad for Phelps that 50% of her own voters said they were less likely to vote for her as a result of the preference decision.</p>
<p>This ReachTEL poll was released by the Heath campaign as it showed her gaining ground. Heath appears to have gained from the Greens, and the endorsement of Sydney <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/lord-mayor-clover-moore-backs-independent-licia-heath-for-wentworth-20180927-p506e7.html">Mayor Clover Moore</a> could further benefit her.</p>
<p>Despite the primary vote gain for Sharma, he led Murray by just 51-49 on a two candidate basis, a one-point gain for Murray since the September 17 ReachTEL. The Poll Bludger estimated Murray would need over three-quarters of all independent and minor party preferences to come this close to Sharma.</p>
<p>At the 2016 election, Malcolm Turnbull won 62.3% of the primary vote in <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/20499/website/HouseDivisionPage-20499-152.htm">Wentworth</a>. While the Liberals’ primary vote in this poll is about 19% below Turnbull, it is recovering to a winning position.</p>
<h2>Trump, Republicans gain in fight over Kavanaugh Supreme Court confirmation</h2>
<p>On July 9, Trump nominated hard-right judge <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brett_Kavanaugh_Supreme_Court_nomination">Brett Kavanaugh</a> to replace the retiring centre-right judge Anthony Kennedy. The right currently has a 5-4 Supreme Court majority, but Kennedy and John Roberts have occasionally voted with the left. If Kavanaugh is confirmed by the Senate, it will give the right a clearer Supreme Court majority. Supreme Court judges are lifetime appointments.</p>
<p>Although Kavanaugh is a polarising figure, he looked very likely to be confirmed by the narrow 51-49 Republican majority Senate until recent sexual assault allegations occurred. Since September 16, three women have publicly accused Kavanaugh of sexual assault when he was a high school or university student.</p>
<p>On September 27, both Kavanaugh and his first accuser, Christine Blasey Ford, testified before the Senate Judiciary Committee. On September 28, without calling additional accusers, the Committee favourably reported Kavanaugh by an 11-10 majority, with all 11 Republicans – all men – voting in favour. </p>
<p>However, after pressure from two Republican senators, the full Senate confirmation vote was delayed for a week to allow an FBI investigation. The Senate received the FBI’s findings on Thursday, and the investigation did not corroborate Ford. <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-05/senate-panel-gets-fbi-report-on-kavanaugh-misconduct-accusations/10340030">Democrats have labelled the report</a> a “whitewash”, but it appears to have satisfied the doubting Republican senators, and Kavanaugh is very likely to be confirmed.</p>
<p>Since the sexual assault allegations against Kavanaugh began, Trump’s ratings in the <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/">FiveThirtyEight poll aggregate</a> have recovered to about a 42% approval rating, from 40% in mid-September. Democrats’ position in the <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=midterms-header">race for Congress</a> has deteriorated to a 7.7 point lead, down from 9.1 points in mid-September.</p>
<p>Midterm elections for all of the US House and 35 of the 100 Senators will be held on November 6. Owing to natural clustering of Democratic votes and Republican gerrymandering, Democrats probably need to win the House popular vote by six to seven points to take control.</p>
<p>While the House map is difficult for Democrats, the Senate is far worse. Democrats are defending 26 Senate seats and Republicans just nine, Five of the states Democrats are defending voted for Trump in 2016 by at least 18 points. Two polls this week in one of those big Trump states, North Dakota, gave Republicans double digit leads over the Democratic incumbent.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/polls-update-trumps-ratings-held-up-by-us-economy-australian-polls-steady-101175">Polls update: Trump’s ratings held up by US economy; Australian polls steady</a>
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<p>The <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/?ex_cid=midterms-header">FiveThirtyEight forecast</a> models give Democrats a 74% chance of gaining control of the House, but just a 22% chance in the Senate.</p>
<p>Republican gains in the polls are likely due to polarisation over Kavanaugh. In a recent <a href="https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2574">Quinnipiac University national poll</a>, voters did not think Kavanaugh should be confirmed – by a net six-point margin – but Trump’s handling of Kavanaugh was at -7 net approval. <a href="https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2575">Democrats led Republicans</a> by seven points, and Trump’s overall net approval was -12. Kavanaugh was more unpopular than in the previous Quinnipiac poll, but Trump and Republicans were more popular.</p>
<p>The hope for Democrats is that once the Kavanaugh issue is resolved, they can refocus attention on issues such as healthcare and the Robert Mueller <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Counsel_investigation_(2017%E2%80%93present)">investigation</a> into Trump’s ties with Russia. However, the strong US economy assists Trump and the Republicans.</p>
<h2>In brief: contest between left and far right in Brazil, conservative breakthrough win in Quebec, Canada</h2>
<p>The Brazil presidential election will be held in two rounds, on October 7 and 28. If no candidate wins over 50% in the October 7 first round, the top two proceed to a runoff.</p>
<p>The left-wing Workers’ Party has won the last four presidential elections from 2002 to 2014, but incumbent <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brazilian_general_election,_2018">President Dilma Rousseff</a> was impeached in August 2016, and replaced by conservative Vice President Michel Temer.</p>
<p>Workers’ Party candidate Fernando Haddad and far-right candidate Jair Bolsonaro are virtually certain to advance to the runoff. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jair_Bolsonaro">Bolsonaro has made sympathetic</a> comments about Brazil’s 1964-85 military dictatorship. Runoff polling shows a close contest.</p>
<p>In the Canadian province of Quebec, a conservative party won an election for the first time since 1966.</p>
<p>You can read more about the Brazil and Quebec elections at my <a href="http://adrianbeaumont.net/wentworth-reachtel-poll-and-left-vs-far-right-contest-in-brazil/">personal website</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/104478/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A change of heart on preferences appears to have cost the high-profile independent in Wentworth, while the controversy around Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation has been of benefit to Donald Trump.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1035972018-09-25T04:52:14Z2018-09-25T04:52:14ZPoll wrap: Labor drops in Newspoll but still has large lead; NSW ReachTEL poll tied 50-50<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237865/original/file-20180925-149982-tcyya3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5451%2C2992&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Prime Minister Scott Morrison appears to be enjoying a honeymoon period, with the Coalition up two points on two-party preferred in the latest Newspoll.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Mick Tsikas</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>This week’s <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/09/23/newspoll-54-46-labor-5/">Newspoll</a>, conducted September 20-23 from a sample of 1,680, gave Labor a 54-46 lead, a two-point gain for the Coalition since last fortnight. Primary votes were 39% Labor (down three), 36% Coalition (up two), 10% Greens (steady) and 6% One Nation (steady).</p>
<p>This is the Coalition’s 41st successive Newspoll loss. In Malcolm Turnbull’s last four <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll">Newspolls as PM</a>, the Coalition trailed Labor by just 51-49. In Scott Morrison’s first three as PM, Labor has had two 56-44 leads followed by a 54-46 lead. This Newspoll contrasts with last week’s Ipsos, which gave Labor just 31% of the primary vote and the Greens 15%.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/poll-wrap-labors-lead-shrinks-in-federal-ipsos-but-grows-in-victorian-galaxy-trumps-ratings-slip-103320">Poll wrap: Labor's lead shrinks in federal Ipsos, but grows in Victorian Galaxy; Trump's ratings slip</a>
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<p>44% were satisfied with Morrison (up three) and 39% were dissatisfied (steady), for a net approval of +5. After rising ten points last fortnight, Bill Shorten’s net approval slumped eight points this week to -22. Morrison led Shorten as better PM by 45-32 (43-37 last fortnight). Morrison also led Shorten by 46-31 on who is the more “authentic” leader.</p>
<p>Morrison is currently benefiting from a personal ratings “honeymoon” effect, while Shorten’s honeymoon is long over. However, Morrison’s ratings are far worse than for Turnbull’s first two Newspolls as PM, with Turnbull’s net approval at +18 then +25, compared with Morrison’s +2 and +5. Honeymoon polling is not predictive of the PM’s long-term ratings.</p>
<p>On September 5, the ABS reported that the Australian <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/5206.0Main%20Features1Jun%202018?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=5206.0&issue=Jun%202018&num=&view=">economy grew by 0.9%</a> in the June quarter for a 3.4% annual growth rate in the year to June. On September 13, the <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/6202.0Main%20Features1August%202018?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=6202.0&issue=August%202018&num=&view=">ABS reported</a> that 44,000 jobs were created in August in seasonally-adjusted terms, with the unemployment rate remaining at 5.3%.</p>
<p>Greg Jericho wrote in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2018/sep/15/great-economic-figures-shame-about-the-leadership?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other">The Guardian</a> that these figures are very good for the government. The narrowing of Labor’s lead to 51-49 in Turnbull’s last four Newspolls as PM probably reflected good economic news as well as a period where the Coalition was relatively unified.</p>
<p>Given Morrison’s relatively good personal ratings and the economy, the Coalition is performing far worse than would be expected on voting intentions. In the US, Donald Trump’s ratings are far worse than they should be given the strength of the US economy. Perhaps being very right-wing is not a vote winner.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/polls-update-trumps-ratings-held-up-by-us-economy-australian-polls-steady-101175">Polls update: Trump’s ratings held up by US economy; Australian polls steady</a>
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<h2>Essential poll: 53-47 to Labor</h2>
<p>This week’s <a href="http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Essential-Report-250918.pdf">Essential poll</a>, conducted September 20-23 from a sample of 1,030, gave Labor a 53-47 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since last fortnight. Primary votes were 37% Coalition (up one), 36% Labor (down one) 12% Greens (up two) and 5% One Nation (down three).</p>
<p>Essential is using 2016 election preferences for its two party estimates, while Newspoll assigns One Nation preferences about 60-40 to the Coalition. Essential has probably been rounded down to 53% to Labor this week, while Newspoll has been rounded up to 54%.</p>
<p>70% in Essential had at least some trust in the federal police, 67% in the state police, 61% in the High Court and 54% in the ABC. At the bottom, 28% had at least some trust in federal parliament and in religious organisations, 25% in trade unions and just 15% in political parties. Since October 2017, trust in local councils is up four points, but trust in political parties is down three.</p>
<p>By 61-21, voters would support the Liberals adopting quotas to increase the number of Liberal women in parliament. By 37-26, voters would support a new law enshrining religious freedoms, but most people would currently have no idea what this debate is about.</p>
<p>45% thought corruption was widespread in politics, with 36% saying the same about the banking and finance sector, 29% about unions and 25% about large corporations. The establishment of an independent federal corruption body was supported by an overwhelming 82-5.</p>
<p>By 78-14, voters agreed that there should be laws requiring equal pay for men and women in the same position. However, voters also agreed 47-44 that gender equality has come far enough already.</p>
<h2>53% approve of constitutional amendment to separate government and religion</h2>
<p>The NSW Rationalists commissioned YouGov Galaxy, which also does Newspoll, for a poll question about separation of government and religion. The survey was conducted from August 30 to September 3 from a national sample of 1,027.</p>
<p>The question asked was, “Australia has no formal recognition of separation of government and religion. Would you approve or disapprove of a constitutional amendment to formally separate government and religion?”</p>
<p>53% approved of such an amendment, just 14% disapproved and 32% were unsure. Morrison <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/religious-freedom-could-be-morrison-s-first-major-test-20180913-p503kf.html">advocates new laws</a> to protect religious freedom, but this poll question does not suggest there is any yearning within Australia for more religion. The <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Marriage_Law_Postal_Survey">same-sex marriage plebiscite</a>, in which Yes to SSM won by 61.6% to 38.4%, was a huge defeat for social conservatism.</p>
<p>More results and analysis are on my <a href="http://adrianbeaumont.net/53-of-australians-approve-of-constitutional-amendment-to-separate-government-and-religion/">personal website</a>.</p>
<h2>Phelps to preference Liberals in Wentworth</h2>
<p>The Wentworth byelection will be held on October 20. On September 21, high-profile independent candidate Kerryn Phelps announced that she would <a href="https://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/phelps-to-preference-liberals-in-wentworth/news-story/e3a83b0a8ed929ef84307133eff6d586">recommend preferences</a> to the Liberals. Just five days earlier, Phelps had said voters should put the Liberals last.</p>
<p>Until her preference decision, Phelps had appeared to be a left-wing independent candidate, but Wentworth is unlikely to be won from the left. This decision will cost Phelps left-wing support; the question is whether she wins over enough right-wing voters who dislike the Liberals or the Liberal candidate, Dave Sharma, to compensate for the loss of left-wing voters. </p>
<p>By backflipping on the “put the Liberals last” message, Phelps has made an issue of her preferences that may dog her for the rest of the campaign.</p>
<p>Phelps’ preferences will not be distributed if she finishes first or second, and Labor preferences will still assist her against the Liberals. If primary votes have Sharma well ahead, and Labor and Phelps in a close race for second, Phelps is now more likely to be excluded owing to Greens preferences. If the final two are the Liberals and Labor, Phelps’ preferences will help the Liberals, relative to her previous position of putting them last.</p>
<h2>NSW ReachTEL poll: 50-50 tie</h2>
<p>The New South Wales election will be held in March 2019. The first state poll in six months is a ReachTEL poll for The Sun-Herald, conducted September 20 from a sample of 1,630. The Coalition and Labor were <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/coalition-neck-and-neck-with-labor-as-foley-overtakes-berejiklian-20180922-p505dn.html">tied at 50-50</a> by 2015 election preference flows, a two-point gain for Labor since a March ReachTEL. </p>
<p><a href="https://twitter.com/GhostWhoVotes/status/1043503668991995904">Primary votes</a> were 35.1% Coalition (down 6.8%), 31.5% Labor (down 1.0%), 10.2% Greens (up 0.8%), 6.1% Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, 4.2% One Nation (down 0.9%), 7.0% for all Others and 5.9% undecided. If undecided voters are excluded, <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/09/23/reachtel-50-50-new-south-wales-2/">primary votes</a> become 37.3% Coalition, 33.5% Labor, 10.8% Greens, 6.5% Shooters and 4.5% One Nation.</p>
<p>Opposition Leader Luke Foley had a very narrow 50.2-49.8 lead over incumbent Gladys Berejiklian as better premier, a 2.5% gain for Foley since March. ReachTEL’s forced choice better PM/Premier questions usually give opposition leaders better results than polls that do not use a forced choice.</p>
<p>It is likely that the federal leadership crisis had some impact on NSW state polling, but we do not know how much, as the last NSW state poll was in March.</p>
<p>As I <a href="https://theconversation.com/poll-wrap-labors-lead-shrinks-in-federal-ipsos-but-grows-in-victorian-galaxy-trumps-ratings-slip-103320">wrote last week</a>, independent Joe McGirr defeated the Liberals in the September 8 Wagga Wagga byelection by a 59.6-40.4 margin. The Labor vs Liberal two party vote gave Labor a <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wagga-wagga-by-election-2018/commentary/">narrow 50.1-49.9 win</a>, a 13.0% swing to Labor since the 2015 election.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/103597/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont received funding from the Rationalists Association of NSW for a section of this article</span></em></p>The Coalition’s recent hit in the polls seems to be subsiding, while Kerryn Phelps may have made a damaging error by announcing she’ll preference the Liberals in the Wentworth byelection.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.