tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/low-income-countries-62323/articleslow-income countries – The Conversation2023-12-06T19:00:28Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2180932023-12-06T19:00:28Z2023-12-06T19:00:28ZDon’t applaud the COP28 climate summit’s loss and damage fund deal just yet – here’s what’s missing<p>Shortly after the opening ceremony of the <a href="https://www.cop28.com/">2023 United Nations climate negotiations</a> in Dubai, delegates of nations around the world rose in a standing ovation to celebrate a long-awaited agreement to launch a loss and damage fund to help vulnerable countries recover from climate-related disasters.</p>
<p>But the applause might not yet be warranted. The deal itself leaves much undecided and has been met with criticism by climate justice advocates and front-line communities.</p>
<p>I teach <a href="https://dornsife.usc.edu/profile/shannon-gibson/">global environmental politics and climate justice</a> and have been attending and observing these negotiations for over a decade to follow the demands for just climate solutions, including loss and damage compensation for countries that have done the least to cause climate change.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563738/original/file-20231205-23-q6uxtx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Several dozen older men in suits walk with al-Jaber, who is one of a few men in traditional Middle Eastern dress. There might be six women in he photo, all, including Ursula von der Leyen, near the back." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563738/original/file-20231205-23-q6uxtx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563738/original/file-20231205-23-q6uxtx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563738/original/file-20231205-23-q6uxtx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563738/original/file-20231205-23-q6uxtx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563738/original/file-20231205-23-q6uxtx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563738/original/file-20231205-23-q6uxtx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563738/original/file-20231205-23-q6uxtx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">COP28 President Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber, center, walks with world leaders and representatives of countries to the climate summit’s opening ceremony. The loss and damage fund was one of the first items approved.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/leaders-and-representatives-of-countries-are-seen-upon-news-photo/1814982687">Stringer/Anadolu via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>A brief history of loss and damage</h2>
<p>“<a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/cop/countries-agree-loss-damage-fund-final-cop27-deal-elusive-2022-11-20/">Breakthrough</a>” was the term often used to describe the decision at 2022’s COP27 climate conference to finally construct a loss and damage fund. Many countries rejoiced at this “<a href="https://www.ciel.org/news/cop27-reaction/">long-delayed</a>” agreement — it came 31 years after Vanuatu, a small archipelago in the Pacific, <a href="https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/a/wg2crp08.pdf">first proposed compensation</a> for loss and damage for climate-caused sea level rise in earlier negotiations.</p>
<p>The agreement was only a framework, however. Most of the details were left to a transitional committee that met throughout 2023 to forward recommendations on this new fund to COP28. A <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/TC2_SynthesisReport.pdf">United Nations report outlined at the committee’s second meeting</a> found that funding from wealthy nations to help poorer countries adapt to the ravages of climate change grew by 65% from 2019 to 2020, to $US49 billion. That’s still far below the <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/TC2_SynthesisReport.pdf">$160 billion to $340 billion</a> the U.N. estimates will be needed annually by 2030. </p>
<p>As the <a href="https://unfccc.int/event/tc4">meetings went on</a>, developing nations, long wary of traditional financial institutions’ <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/TC2_SynthesisReport.pdf">use of interest-bearing loans</a>, which have left many low-income countries mired in debt, proposed that the fund be independent. Developed nations, however, insisted the fund be hosted under the World Bank and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/cop/tensions-soar-over-new-fund-climate-loss-damage-ahead-cop28-2023-10-23/">held up the recommendations</a> until <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/TC5_4_Cochairs%20draft%20text_Rev2_4Nov2100.pdf">right before COP28</a>.</p>
<h2>Devil is in the details</h2>
<p>While any deal on funding for climate disaster damages was sure to be portrayed as a historic win, further investigation suggests that it should be welcomed with hesitation and scrutiny.</p>
<p>First, the fund contains no specifics on scale, financial targets or how it will be funded. Instead, the decision merely “invites” developed nations to “take the lead” in providing finance and support and encourages commitments from other parties. It also fails to detail which countries will be eligible to receive funding and vaguely states it would be for “economic and non-economic loss and damage associated with the adverse effects of climate change, including extreme weather events and slow onset events.”</p>
<p>So far, pledges have been underwhelming.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563664/original/file-20231205-17-q4owc5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Dozens of tents line a road with floodwater on both sides." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563664/original/file-20231205-17-q4owc5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563664/original/file-20231205-17-q4owc5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563664/original/file-20231205-17-q4owc5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563664/original/file-20231205-17-q4owc5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563664/original/file-20231205-17-q4owc5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563664/original/file-20231205-17-q4owc5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563664/original/file-20231205-17-q4owc5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Extensive flooding from extreme rain destroyed homes and livelihoods across Pakistan in 2022. Residents set up tents along a stretch of dry land.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/this-aerial-photograph-taken-on-august-31-2022-shows-flood-news-photo/1242835834?adppopup=true">Fida Hussain/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Calculations of <a href="https://www.nrdc.org/bio/joe-thwaites/cop-28-climate-fund-pledge-tracker">early commitments total just over US$650 million</a>, with Germany and the United Arab Emirates pledging $100 million and the U.K. committing $75 million. The United States, one of the largest climate change contributors, pledged only $17.5 million in comparison. It’s a <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/TC2_SynthesisReport.pdf">shockingly low starting point</a>.</p>
<p>Also, any notion that this fund represents liability or compensation by developed countries — a major concern for countries with long histories of carbon pollution — was removed entirely. It in fact notes that loss and damage response is based on cooperation instead.</p>
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<p>In a rare win for the developing world, funds were made available — even at subnational and community levels — to all nations, though with yet-undetermined performance indicators.</p>
<p>Additional concern has been raised about the fund’s interim host – the World Bank. In fact, deciding on a host institution was one of the sticking points that nearly derailed earlier talks.</p>
<p>On one side, the United States and other <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/19/biden-climate-fund-fight-un-summit-00121772">developed nations insisted</a> the fund be hosted by the World Bank, which has <a href="https://sgp.fas.org/crs/row/R42463.pdf">always been led by an American</a> and has <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/6642815/">historically spread pro-Western policies</a>. Developing countries, however, resisted the World Bank’s involvement based on their <a href="https://www.nber.org/system/files/chapters/c9656/c9656.pdf">historical experiences</a> with its lending and structural adjustment programs and noting the bank’s role for years in financing oil and gas exploration as cornerstones of development efforts.</p>
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<img alt="Banga, wearing a turban, and von der Leyen talk while sitting on the edge of a desk in a conference room." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563666/original/file-20231205-21-3dtchs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563666/original/file-20231205-21-3dtchs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563666/original/file-20231205-21-3dtchs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563666/original/file-20231205-21-3dtchs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563666/original/file-20231205-21-3dtchs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563666/original/file-20231205-21-3dtchs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563666/original/file-20231205-21-3dtchs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">World Bank President Ajay Banga speaks with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at COP28 in Dubai on Dec. 2, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/world-bank-president-ajay-banga-speaks-with-european-news-photo/1815505102?adppopup=true">Ludovic Marin/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Following a stalemate and <a href="https://www.twn.my/title2/climate/info.service/2023/cc231101.htm">U.S. attempts to block a consensus</a>, a compromise was reached to host the fund under the World Bank for four years, with guardrails to ensure its independence and impact. After this window, the host structure will be reviewed, leading to either a fully independent fund or continuation under the World Bank.</p>
<p>The concern for critics with this route is that the compromise <a href="https://climatenetwork.org/2023/11/04/reactions-to-loss-and-damage-fund-tc5-meeting/">risks ending up as a permanent hosting situation</a>.</p>
<p>And there are more issues, such as the fund board’s composition, which only allows for national representatives, not civil society representatives such as from Indigenous groups, as developing countries requested. The scope of funding that will be allowed is also still up in the air. In the fund’s vague state, it opens the door for countries, as part of their loss and damage funding commitments, to count private loans, conditional import credits and even funding from the fossil fuel industry at the <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2023/12/03/cop28-bulletin-us-gcf-pledge-and-greenwash-oil-and-gas-charter/">same time the industry continues to fuel climate damage</a>.</p>
<h2>What happens next, starting in 2024</h2>
<p>To date, the international climate community does not have a solid track record when it comes to climate finance promises. Each successive fund — from the <a href="https://www.greenclimate.fund/about">Green Climate Fund</a> that supports green projects in the developing world to the <a href="https://www.adaptation-fund.org/about/">Adaptation Fund</a> that builds climate resilience for the most vulnerable nations — has been woefully undersourced from inception.</p>
<p>In 2021, the entire climate finance ecosystem, from national commitments to private investment, totaled <a href="https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Global-Landscape-of-Climate-Finance-A-Decade-of-Data.pdf">$850 billion</a>. Experts indicate that <a href="https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Global-Landscape-of-Climate-Finance-A-Decade-of-Data.pdf">this sum needs to be closer to $4.3 trillion</a>.</p>
<p>That target represents 20% year-over-year growth until the end of this decade – a significant ramp up from recent years.</p>
<p>From 2011 to 2020, total climate finance <a href="https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/global-landscape-of-climate-finance-a-decade-of-data/">grew at just 7% annually</a>. If this trend continues, not only will developing and most vulnerable countries lose faith in this process, but the very need for loss and damage funding will only grow.</p>
<p>The new fund board is mandated to hold its first meeting by Jan. 31, 2024. While this early start time is laudable, droughts will continue killing crops, and storms will continue flooding homes while the new fund engages in another series of meetings to determine who will qualify, how they can apply and how and when funds will actually be dispersed.</p>
<p><em>Researcher Will Erens, a student at the University of Southern California, contributed to this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218093/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shannon Gibson is affiliated with the Global Justice Ecology Project. </span></em></p>The agreement still leaves many unanswered questions, as well as concerns from vulnerable countries about who will qualify, who pays and who is in charge.Shannon Gibson, Associate Professor of International Relations and Environmental Studies, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and SciencesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1974712023-01-12T08:21:32Z2023-01-12T08:21:32ZIs Europe’s new carbon border tax fair for everyone?<p>The European Union’s carbon market has shown remarkable success in encouraging industries to green their production processes. Known as the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), it has helped reduce the EU’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/fr/qanda_21_3542">more than 40%</a> in covered sectors.</p>
<p>The largest environmental-commodities market in history, it spans 31 countries (the 27 member states plus Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway) and more than 10,000 power plants and industrial installations. These include oil refineries, steel works, and production of iron, aluminium, metals, cement, glass, ceramics, pulp and paper, among others. Based on the <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_21_3542">“cap and trade” principle</a>, it sets an absolute limit on the total amount of certain greenhouse gases that can be released each year by the entities regulated by the system. Critically, that cap is tightened over time. Companies can buy or receive emission allowances, which they trade with one another as needed.</p>
<p>However, the policy has also had some undesirable side effects. Industries have looked to outsource their production to countries that <a href="https://www.eionet.europa.eu/etcs/etc-atni/products/etc-atni-reports/etc-atni-report-7-2019-emissions-outsourcing-in-the-eu-a-review-of-potential-effects-on-industrial-pollution/">do not adopt similar policies</a>, which can lead to a rise in emissions outside Europe, potentially even exceeding the EU’s emission reductions.</p>
<p>To avoid this, in December the European Commission voted on a preliminary agreement to set up a <a href="https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2022/12/13/eu-climate-action-provisional-agreement-reached-on-carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism-cbam">border carbon adjustment mechanism</a> (CBAM). Instead of charging for GHG emissions only within the European Union, the CBAM will also tax emissions embodied in imports of the high-emission industries. Aluminium, electricity, cement, fertilisers, iron and steel are particularly targeted, while hydrogen was recently added because it was chiefly produced with coal in non-EU countries.</p>
<p>This may look like a smart move to motivate the EU’s trading partners to decarbonise their production alongside the 27-state bloc. It is true the adoption of the CBAM could lead to a wave of similar policies in other developed economies, such as Japan and North America, as well as in developing countries with the capacity to decarbonise their industries, such as China. Adopting a similar line will allow them to avoid paying a carbon tax at the border when exporting their goods and services to the EU.</p>
<p>However, some of the underlying assumptions remain controversial. Promoting the substitution of highly polluting technologies by green technologies seems notably <a href="https://green-transition-navigator.org/">easier in Europe</a> than in Africa.</p>
<h2>Strong dependencies</h2>
<p>Combining an enthusiasm for green politics and engineering traditions, Europe is a <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/195bb547-8b01-4c99-a789-f77e8b779620">leading manufacturer of green technologies</a>. The continent is home to top wind turbine producers (Vestas, Nordex and Siemens Gamesa) as well as green power generators (Enel, EDP, Iberdrola and Orsted).</p>
<p>The replacement of old industries by green ones therefore creates new employment opportunities and leads to a positive cycle of income growth and environmental progress. Elsewhere, by contrast, green technologies are more likely to be imported, which means that this process will weaken the economy rather than create opportunities.</p>
<p>For those unable to keep up, there will be further damage as they lose access to the EU market or become less competitive and no longer export. Many jobs, tax revenues and export revenues will be lost if the CBAM is implemented without taking into account the specificities of the EU’s trading partners.</p>
<p>Some studies have already addressed this issue with macroeconomic models, but these are flawed in their analysis of developing countries. They generally assume that all countries have a relatively high capacity to migrate from one industry to another.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.afd.fr/en/ressources/impacts-cbam-eu-trade-partners-consequences-developing-countries">recent work</a>, we try to avoid these assumptions by focusing on economies with less mature industries and therefore less capacity to adapt. We therefore analyse the consequences of the implementation of the CBAM on employment, wages, tax and trade revenues, following an <a href="https://oecd-development-matters.org/2022/06/07/low-carbon-transition-in-latin-america-what-are-the-risks-and-the-main-constraints/">approach</a> developed to understand the macroeconomic consequences of developing economies in the context of a global transition.</p>
<p>The results show that African countries such as Mozambique and Zimbabwe and some Eastern European countries, such as Bosnia and Herzegovina, Ukraine and Serbia, are highly dependent on exports of products subject to the CBAM. In the case of Mozambique, almost a fifth of its total exports are aluminium to the EU. Zimbabwe and Ukraine depend on iron and steel exports to the EU, while Serbia and Bosnia’s exports of CBAM products are more varied (iron and steel, electricity and aluminium) but still account for more than 5% of their total exports.</p>
<h2>Jobs at risk</h2>
<p>Our method allows us to analyse not only the industries producing such products, but also those supplying inputs farther up in the production chain, hence leading to cascading impacts. This is possible by using intercountry input-output matrices, which show the productive relationships between sectors within and between countries.</p>
<p>Based on this approach, we find that the potential job losses and the share of wage income exposed to CBAM. Mozambique and Moldova are the countries in which wage income is most likely to be impacted, accounting for around 6% of the wage bill. On the other hand, Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina can experience job losses of around 3% if the CBAM is implemented without taking into account the specific constraints of these countries.</p>
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<p>If one considers the <a href="https://ilostat.ilo.org/topics/social-protection/">share of the population benefiting from a welfare security net</a>, one finds additional socio-economic vulnerability. In Mozambique or Zimbabwe, only a small part of its population is covered by social protection policies. This is not quite the case for countries such as Ukraine, Bahrain and Armenia: even though they are highly exposed to the consequences of the CBAM, at least 50% of their population enjoys some form of social protection.</p>
<h2>What if others do the same?</h2>
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<p>This will also significantly increase the exposure of developing countries, particularly in Africa, Asia and Latin America. In the case of Zimbabwe and North Korea, for example, exports to China of these high-emitting industries play a very important role, and in the case of Trinidad and Tobago and Bahrain, their sales to North America are very significant as a proportion of total exports.</p>
<p>This potentially regressive nature of the CBAM therefore requires careful attention to its institutional design, especially if the objective is to reinforce global climate ambitions with the EU’s own decarbonisation strategy. One possible way to minimise its side effects is to exempt the so-called least developed countries from the CBAM. Instead, they should receive targeted support from the EU to reduce their dependence on highly emitting industries, via transfer of technologies, climate subsidies or concessional lending.</p>
<p>The design of a development-friendly CBAM, such as the one discussed, is key to the success of this emblematic part of the <a href="https://www.ecologie.gouv.fr/fit-55-nouveau-cycle-politiques-europeennes-climat">Fit for 55 package</a>, which aims to slash the continent’s emissions by 55% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. The effectiveness of this measure will therefore need to be accompanied by a broader set of development policies to accompany the most exposed countries toward their own carbon neutrality strategy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197471/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Les auteurs ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>Already lacking the means to decarbonise their industry or turn to greener alternatives, poor countries could also be deprived of revenues from exports to Europe.Antoine Godin, Économiste-modélisateur, Agence française de développement (AFD)Guilherme Riccioppo Magacho, Chercheur en économie environnementale, Agence française de développement (AFD)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1969252022-12-26T16:27:30Z2022-12-26T16:27:30ZHow Putin’s war and small islands are accelerating the global shift to clean energy, and what to watch for in 2023<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502452/original/file-20221221-21-8gdpg3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5208%2C3072&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Workers install solar panels for a floating photovoltaic solar plant in Germany in April 2022.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/worker-fixes-solar-panels-at-a-floating-photovoltaic-plant-news-photo/1240145689?phrase=germany%20solar&adppopup=true">Photo by Ina Fassbender/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The year 2022 was a tough one for the growing number of people living in food insecurity and energy poverty around the world, and the beginning of 2023 is looking bleak.</p>
<p>Russia’s war on Ukraine, one of the world’s largest grain and fertilizer feedstock suppliers, tightened global <a href="https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/system-shock-russias-war-and-global-food-energy-and-mineral-supply-chains">food and energy supplies</a>, which in turn helped spur inflation.</p>
<p>Drought, exacerbated in some places by warring groups blocking food aid, pushed parts of the <a href="https://fews.net/horn-africa">Horn of Africa toward famine</a>. Extreme <a href="https://theconversation.com/2022s-supercharged-summer-of-climate-extremes-how-global-warming-and-la-nina-fueled-disasters-on-top-of-disasters-190546">weather disasters</a> have left trails of destruction with mounting costs on nearly every continent. More countries found themselves <a href="https://www.chathamhouse.org/2022/12/response-debt-distress-africa-and-role-china">in debt distress</a>.</p>
<p>But below the surface of almost weekly bad news, significant changes are underway that have the potential to create a more sustainable world – one in which humanity can tackle climate change, species extinction and food and energy insecurity.</p>
<p>I’ve been <a href="https://fletcher.tufts.edu/people/staff/rachel-kyte">involved in international sustainable development</a> for most of my career and now teach climate diplomacy. Here’s how two key systems that drive the world’s economy – energy and finance – are starting to shift toward sustainability and what to watch for in 2023.</p>
<h2>Ramping up renewable energy growth</h2>
<p>Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine has reverberated through Europe and spread to other countries that have long been dependent on the region for natural gas. But while oil-producing countries and gas lobbyists are arguing for more drilling, global <a href="https://www.rystadenergy.com/news/renewable-projects-payback-time-drops-to-under-a-year-in-some-places-capital-inve">energy investments reflect a quickening</a> transition to cleaner energy.</p>
<p>Call it the Putin effect – Russia’s war is <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2022">speeding up the global shift away from fossil fuels</a>.</p>
<p>In December, the International Energy Agency published two important reports that point to the future of renewable energy.</p>
<p>First, the IEA revised its projection of renewable energy growth upward by 30%. It now expects the world to <a href="https://www.iea.org/news/renewable-power-s-growth-is-being-turbocharged-as-countries-seek-to-strengthen-energy-security">install as much solar and wind</a> power in the next five years as it installed in the past 50 years.</p>
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<p>The second report showed that energy use is <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-efficiency-2022">becoming more efficient globally</a>, with efficiency increasing by about 2% per year. As energy analyst Kingsmill Bond at the energy research group RMI noted, the two reports together suggest that fossil fuel <a href="https://rmi.org/how-putins-war-marks-the-end-of-the-fossil-fuel-era/">demand may have peaked</a>. While some low-income countries have been eager for deals to tap their fossil fuel resources, the IEA warns that new fossil fuel production risks becoming stranded, or uneconomic, in the next 20 years.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/renewables-2022">main obstacles to the exponential growth</a> in renewable energy, IEA points out, are antiquated energy policy frameworks, regulations and subsidies written at a time when energy systems, pricing and utilities were all geared toward fossil fuels.</p>
<p>Look in 2023 for reforms, including countries wrestling with <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/smart-grids">how to permit smart grids</a> and <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/26/why-the-us-has-a-massive-power-line-problem.html">new transmission lines</a> and finding ways to reward consumers for efficiency and clean energy generation.</p>
<p>The year 2023 will also see more focus on developing talent for the clean energy infrastructure build-out. In the U.S., the recently passed <a href="https://theconversation.com/big-new-incentives-for-clean-energy-arent-enough-the-inflation-reduction-act-was-just-the-first-step-now-the-hard-work-begins-188693">Inflation Reduction Act and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law</a> will pour hundreds of billions of dollars into clean energy and technology. Europe’s <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/is-the-european-union-on-track-to-meet-its-repowereu-goals">REPowerEU commitments</a> will also boost investment. However, <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2022/12/05/eu-chief-flags-concerns-about-bidens-buy-american-climate-plans/">concerns about “buy American” rules</a> within the new U.S. climate laws and an EU plan to launch a <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/european-union-carbon-border-tax/">carbon border adjustment tax</a> are raising fears that nationalism in trade policy could harm the speed of green growth.</p>
<h2>Fixing international climate finance</h2>
<p>The second system to watch for reform in 2023 is international finance. It’s also crucial to how low-income countries develop their energy systems, build resilience and recover from climate disasters.</p>
<p>Wealthy nations haven’t moved the energy transition forward quickly enough or provided enough support for emerging markets and developing countries to leapfrog inefficient fossil-fueled energy systems. <a href="https://sdgpulse.unctad.org/debt-sustainability/">Debt is ballooning</a> in low-income countries, and climate change and disasters like the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/14/world/asia/pakistan-floods.html">devastating flooding in Pakistan</a> wipe out growth and add costs.</p>
<p>Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley has brought together international financial institutions with think tanks and philanthropists <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2022/09/23/mia-mottley-builds-global-coalition-to-make-financial-system-fit-for-climate-action/">to push for changes</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman sits on stage during an event and gestures with her hands." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502451/original/file-20221221-18-4zo4m4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502451/original/file-20221221-18-4zo4m4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502451/original/file-20221221-18-4zo4m4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502451/original/file-20221221-18-4zo4m4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502451/original/file-20221221-18-4zo4m4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502451/original/file-20221221-18-4zo4m4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502451/original/file-20221221-18-4zo4m4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley has become a leading voice for international climate finance reform.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/mia-amor-mottley-speaks-onstage-at-the-time100-summit-2022-news-photo/1401561603">Photo by Jemal Countess/Getty Images for TIME</a></span>
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<p>Countries like Mottley’s have been frustrated that the current international financial system – primarily the International Monetary Fund and the multilateral development banks, including the World Bank – haven’t adapted to the growing climate challenges.</p>
<p>Mottley’s Bridgetown Initiative <a href="https://youtu.be/y4lUZK1YJNo">proposes a new approach</a>. It calls for countries’ vulnerability to be measured by climate impact, and for funds to be made available on that basis, <a href="https://youtu.be/FNC1dJcvCww">rather than income</a>. It also urges more risk-taking by the development banks to leverage private investment in vulnerable countries, including <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-debt-for-climate-swaps-can-help-solve-low-income-countries-crushing-debt-and-environmental-challenges-at-the-same-time-191161">climate debt swaps</a>.</p>
<p>The Bridgetown Initiative also calls for countries <a href="https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/france-release-5-bln-euros-sdrs-vulnerable-countries-under-g20-programme-2022-12-02/">to reflow</a> their <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/special-drawing-right">IMF Special Drawing Rights</a> – a reserve available to IMF members – into a proposed fund that vulnerable countries could then use to build resilience to climate change. A working group <a href="https://www.cgdev.org/blog/quick-rundown-where-we-stand-sdrs">established by the G-20</a> points out that the “easiest” trillion dollars to access for urgent climate response is that already in the system.</p>
<p>In early 2023, Mottley and French President Emmanuel Macron, with others, will drive a process to examine the possible <a href="https://id.ambafrance.org/Speech-by-Mr-Emmanuel-Macron-President-of-the-Republic-Sharm-el-Sheikh-Egypt">measures to improve</a> the current system before the annual meetings of the World Bank and the IMF in April, and then at a June summit called by France.</p>
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<p>Watch in 2023 to see if this is the year the G-7 and the G-20 rekindle their global economic leadership roles. Their members are the largest owners of the international financial institutions, and also the largest emitters of carbon dioxide on the planet. <a href="https://www.g20.org/en/">India will lead the G-20</a> in 2023, followed by Brazil in 2024. Their leadership will be critical.</p>
<h2>Watch small nations’ leadership in 2023</h2>
<p>In 2023, expect to see small nations increasingly push for global transformation, <a href="https://sdg.iisd.org/news/v20-g7-launch-initiative-to-address-climate-risks-in-vulnerable-countries/">led by the V-20</a> – the finance ministers of the countries most vulnerable to climate change.</p>
<p>In addition to the Bridgetown Initiative, Barbados has suggested a way to pool new funds working off the model of an oil spill damage fund at the International Maritime Organization. In the IMO fund, big oil importers pay in, and the fund pays out in the event of a spill. Barbados supports <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/windfall-profit-taxes-debt-relief-un-climate-summit-2022-11">creating a similar fund</a> to help countries when a climate event costs more than 5% of a country’s GDP.</p>
<p>This model is potentially a way to pool funds from a levy on the windfall profits of energy companies that saw their <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/oil-companies-post-massive-profits-as-consumers-feel-squeeze-from-high-gas-prices">profits soar in 2022</a> while billions of people around the world suffered from energy price inflation.</p>
<p>Finally, the <a href="https://www.cbd.int/article/cop15-cbd-press-release-final-19dec2022">breakthrough agreement on biodiversity</a> reached in December 2022 provides more promise for 2023. Countries agreed to conserve 30% of the world’s biodiversity and restore 30% of the world’s degraded lands. The funding – a $30 billion fund by 2030 – remains to be found, but the plan clarifies the task ahead and nature’s place in it. And we can hope 2023 is a year when signs of peace in our war against nature break out.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/196925/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rachel Kyte does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Look for significant progress in 2023 in two key areas, writes a veteran of international climate policy.Rachel Kyte, Dean of the Fletcher School, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1949922022-11-21T13:25:56Z2022-11-21T13:25:56ZCOP27’s ‘loss and damage’ fund for developing countries could be a breakthrough – or another empty climate promise<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496398/original/file-20221121-16-iwtkve.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C0%2C5731%2C3826&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry closes COP27 in the early hours of Nov. 19, 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/november-2022-egypt-scharm-el-scheich-samih-zhukri-foreign-news-photo/1244917386">Christophe Gateau/picture alliance via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Developing <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/20/deal-on-loss-and-damage-fund-at-cop27-marks-climbdown-by-rich-countries?ref=upstract.com">nations were justifiably jubilant</a> at the close of COP27 as negotiators from wealthy countries around the world agreed for the first time to establish a dedicated “<a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2022/11/20/what-was-decided-at-cop27-climate-talks-in-sharm-el-sheikh/">loss and damage” fund</a> for vulnerable countries harmed by climate change. </p>
<p>It was an important and <a href="https://news.trust.org/item/20210720193604-ubg6h">hard fought</a> acknowledgment of the damage – and of who bears at least some responsibility for the cost.</p>
<p>But the fund might not materialize in the way that developing countries hope.</p>
<p>I study <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=l6nq2hkAAAAJ&hl=en">global environmental policy</a> and have been following climate negotiations from their <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/30/25-years-cop-failures-paris-climate-change-pakistan-binding-agreements">inception at the 1992 Rio Earth Summit</a>. Here’s what’s in the agreement reached at COP27, the United Nations climate talks in Egypt in November 2022, and why it holds much promise but very few commitments.</p>
<h2>3 key questions</h2>
<p>All decisions at these U.N. climate conferences – always – are promissory notes. And the legacy of climate negotiations <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/30/25-years-cop-failures-paris-climate-change-pakistan-binding-agreements">is one of promises not kept</a>. </p>
<p>This promise, welcome as it is, is particularly vague and unconvincing, even by U.N. standards.</p>
<p>Essentially, the <a href="https://unfccc.int/cop27/auv">agreement</a> only begins the process of establishing a fund. The implementable decision is to set up a “transitional committee,” which is tasked with making recommendations for the world to consider at the 2023 climate conference, COP28, in Dubai.</p>
<p>Importantly for wealthy countries, the text avoids terms like “liability” and “compensation.” Those <a href="https://doi.org/10.1163/18786561-00601008">had been</a> <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2022/11/02/see-you-in-court-how-climate-lawsuits-could-sharpen-cop27-loss-and-damage-talks/">red lines</a> for the United States. The most important <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/21550085.2017.1342963">operational questions</a> were also left to 2023. Three, in particular, are likely to hound the next COP.</p>
<p>1) Who will pay into this new fund? </p>
<p>Developed countries have made it very clear that the fund will be voluntary and should not be restricted only to developed country contributions. Given that the <a href="https://theconversation.com/paris-agreement-on-climate-change-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly-52242">much-trumpeted US$100 billion</a> a year that wealthy nations promised <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/dec/07/paris-climate-change-deal-summit-guide">in 2015</a> to provide for developing nations has not yet materialized, believing that rich countries will be pouring their heart into this new venture seems to be yet another triumph of hope over experience. </p>
<p>2) The fund will be new, but will it be additional?</p>
<p>It is not at all clear if money in the fund will be “new” money or simply aid already committed for other issues and shifted to the fund. In fact, the <a href="https://unfccc.int/cop27/auv">COP27 language</a> could easily be read as favoring arrangements that “complement and include” existing sources rather than new and additional financing.</p>
<p>3) Who would receive support from the fund?</p>
<p>As climate disasters increase all over the world, we could tragically get into disasters competing with disasters – is my drought more urgent than your flood? – unless explicit principles of climate justice and the polluter pays principle are clearly established.</p>
<h2>Why now?</h2>
<p>Acknowledgment that countries whose excessive emissions have been causing climate change have a responsibility to pay for damages imposed on poorer nations has been <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S1469-3062(03)00057-3">a perennial demand of developing countries in climate negotiations</a>. In fact, a paragraph on “loss and damage” was also included <a href="https://theconversation.com/paris-agreement-on-climate-change-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly-52242">in the 2015 Paris Agreement</a> signed at COP21. </p>
<p>What <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/cop27_auv_2_cover%20decision.pdf">COP27</a> at Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, has done is to ensure that the <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/welcome-to-the-e2-80-98age-of-adaptation-e2-80-99/ar-AA13OsUE">idea of loss and damage</a> will be a central feature of all future climate negotiations. That is big.</p>
<p>Seasoned observers left Sharm el-Sheikh <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/20/deal-on-loss-and-damage-fund-at-cop27-marks-climbdown-by-rich-countries">wondering how</a> developing countries were able to push the loss and damage agenda so successfully at COP27 when it has been so firmly resisted by large emitter countries like the United States for so long.</p>
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<p>The <a href="https://www.scidev.net/global/opinions/q-a-adapt-to-climate-by-packaging-local-results-into-policy/">logic of climate justice</a> has always been impeccable: The countries that have contributed most to creating the problem are a near mirror opposite of those who face the most imminent risk of climatic loss and damage. So, what changed?</p>
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<p>At least three things made COP27 the perfect time for this issue to ripen.</p>
<p>First, an <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/welcome-to-the-e2-80-98age-of-adaptation-e2-80-99/ar-AA13OsUE">unrelenting series of climate disasters</a> have erased all doubts that we are now firmly in what I have been calling the “<a href="https://blog.iiasa.ac.at/2017/07/26/interview-living-in-the-age-of-adaptation/">age of adaptation</a>.” Climate impacts are no longer just a threat for tomorrow; they are a reality to be dealt with today.</p>
<p>Second, the devastating floods this summer that inundated a third of my home country of Pakistan provided the world with an immediate and extremely visual sense of what climate impacts can look like, particularly for the most vulnerable people. They affected 33 million people are expected to cost <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/10/28/pakistan-flood-damages-and-economic-losses-over-usd-30-billion-and-reconstruction-needs-over-usd-16-billion-new-assessme">over $16 billion</a>. </p>
<p>The floods, in addition to a spate of other recent climate calamities, provided developing countries – which happened to be represented at COP27 by an energized Pakistan as the chair of the “G-77 plus China,” a coalition of more than 170 developing countries – with the motivation and the authority <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/20/loss-and-damage-pakistan-flooding-climate-justice-cop27">to push a loss and damage agenda</a> more vigorously than ever before.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Young people from many countries shout and wave signs reading 'pay up for loss and damage' at a small outdoor protest." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496400/original/file-20221121-23-c680ia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496400/original/file-20221121-23-c680ia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496400/original/file-20221121-23-c680ia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496400/original/file-20221121-23-c680ia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496400/original/file-20221121-23-c680ia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496400/original/file-20221121-23-c680ia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496400/original/file-20221121-23-c680ia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Activists from developing nations pressed for a loss and damage fund during the COP27 U.N. climate conference, the first held in Africa.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/COP27ClimateSummit/2ad01e2724ca41cc9826a5acea577984/photo">AP Photo/Peter Dejong</a></span>
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<p>Finally, it is possible that COP-fatigue also played a role. Industrialized countries – particularly the U.S. and members of the European Union, which have <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/19/climate/un-climate-damage-cop27.html">traditionally blocked discussions</a> of loss and damage – <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/20/deal-on-loss-and-damage-fund-at-cop27-marks-climbdown-by-rich-countries?ref=upstract.com">remain distracted</a> by Russia’s <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-63548466">war in Ukraine</a> and the economic effects of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/i-spoke-to-99-big-thinkers-about-what-our-world-after-coronavirus-might-look-like-this-is-what-i-learned-146986">COVID-19 pandemic</a> and seemed to show less immediate resistance than in the past.</p>
<p>Importantly, for now, developing countries got what they wanted: a fund for loss and damage. And developed countries were able to avoid what they have always been unwilling to give: any concrete funding commitments or any acknowledgment of responsibility for reparations. </p>
<p>Both can go home and declare victory. But not for long.</p>
<h2>Is it just a ‘placebo fund’?</h2>
<p>Real as the jubilation is for developing countries, it is also tempered. And rightly so. </p>
<p>For developing countries, there is a real danger that this turns out to be another “<a href="https://oxfordclimatepolicy.org/sites/default/files/EV43_0.pdf">placebo fund</a>,” to use Oxford University researcher Benito Müller’s term – an agreed-to funding arrangement without any agreed-to funding commitments.</p>
<p>In 2001, for example, developing countries had been delighted when three funds were established: <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/bodies/funds-and-financial-entities/least-developed-countries-ldc-fund">a climate fund to support least developed countries</a>, a <a href="https://unfccc.int/topics/climate-finance/resources/reports-of-the-special-climate-change-fund">Special Climate Change Fund</a>, and an <a href="https://unfccc.int/Adaptation-Fund">Adaptation Fund</a>. None ever reached the promised scale.</p>
<p>Writing prior to COP15 in Copenhagen in 2009, Müller boldly declared that developing countries would <a href="https://chinadialogue.net/en/climate/3173-will-treasuries-kill-climate-deal/">never again “settle for more ‘placebo funds</a>’.” I very much hopes he has not been proven wrong at Sharm el-Sheikh.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194992/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adil Najam does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It’s a landmark agreement, acknowledging for the first time that wealthy countries bear some responsibility to help. But it leaves many unanswered questions.Adil Najam, Professor of International Relations, Boston UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1939442022-11-11T13:13:50Z2022-11-11T13:13:50ZHow the energy crisis is pressuring countries’ climate plans – while some race to renewables, others see wealth in natural gas, but drilling benefits may be short-lived<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495049/original/file-20221114-14-gb8km7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1750%2C575%2C3575%2C2300&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A pipeline in Tunisia supplies natural gas from Algeria to Italy. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/an-employee-works-at-the-tunisian-sergaz-company-that-news-photo/1239979404">Fethi Belaid/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Russia’s war on Ukraine has cast a shadow over this week’s meetings of world leaders at the <a href="https://www.g20.org/bali-summit/">G-20 summit</a> in Bali and the <a href="https://cop27.eg/">United Nations climate change conference</a> in Egypt.</p>
<p>The war has dramatically disrupted energy markets the world over, leaving many countries vulnerable to price spikes amid supply shortages.</p>
<p>Europe, worried about keeping the heat on through winter, is outbidding poor countries for natural gas, even paying premiums to <a href="https://energiesnet.com/another-lng-tanker-took-a-dramatic-u-turn-in-pursuit-of-higher-prices/">reroute tanker ships</a> after Russia cut off most of its usual natural gas supply. Some countries are <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/09/27/1124448463/germany-coal-energy-crisis">restarting coal-fired power plants</a>. Others are looking for ways to expand fossil fuel production, including <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-07/tanzania-to-sign-key-40-billion-lng-project-accords-next-month?sref=Hjm5biAW">new projects in Africa</a>. </p>
<p>These actions are a long way from the countries’ <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/net-zero-coalition">pledges just a year ago to rein in fossil fuels</a>, and they’re likely to further increase greenhouse gas emissions, at least temporarily.</p>
<p>But will the war and the economic turmoil prevent the world from meeting the Paris climate agreement’s <a href="https://unfccc.int/most-requested/key-aspects-of-the-paris-agreement">long-term goals</a>?</p>
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<img alt="Kerry leans toward Scholz and raises a finger as if to point while seated during the UN climate conference." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494583/original/file-20221110-19-5m6qpc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494583/original/file-20221110-19-5m6qpc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494583/original/file-20221110-19-5m6qpc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494583/original/file-20221110-19-5m6qpc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494583/original/file-20221110-19-5m6qpc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494583/original/file-20221110-19-5m6qpc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494583/original/file-20221110-19-5m6qpc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">U.S. climate envoy John Kerry speaks with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the U.N. climate change conference, known as COP27, on Nov. 7, 2022, in Egypt.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/november-2022-egypt-scharm-el-scheich-german-chancellor-news-photo/1244584482">Michael Kappeler/picture alliance via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>There are reasons to believe that this may not be the case. </p>
<p>The answer depends in part on how wealthy countries respond to a focus of this year’s climate conference: fulfilling their pledges in the Paris Agreement to provide support for low- and middle-income countries to build clean energy systems. </p>
<h2>Europe speeds up clean energy plans</h2>
<p>A key lesson many countries are taking away from the ongoing energy crisis is that, if anything, the <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/renewables-2021/executive-summary">transition to renewable energy</a> must be pushed forward faster. </p>
<p>I work with countries as they update <a href="https://unfccc.int/ndc-information/nationally-determined-contributions-ndcs">national climate pledges</a> and have been involved in evaluating the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-31734-1">compatibility of global emissions reduction scenarios</a> with the Paris Agreement. I see the energy crisis affecting countries’ plans in different ways.</p>
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<p>About <a href="https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/total-primary-energy-supply-by-fuel-1971-and-2019">80% of the world’s energy</a> is still from fossil sources. <a href="https://unctad.org/topic/trade-analysis/chart-3-november-2021">Global trade</a> in coal, oil and natural gas has meant that even countries with their own energy supplies have felt some of the pain of <a href="https://www.iea.org/news/natural-gas-markets-expected-to-remain-tight-into-2023-as-russia-further-reduces-supplies-to-europe">exorbitant prices</a>. In the U.S., for example, natural gas and electricity prices are higher than normal because they are increasingly tied to international markets, and the U.S. is the <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=53719">world’s largest exporter</a> of liquefied natural gas. </p>
<p>The shortage has led to a scramble to find fossil fuel suppliers in the short term. European countries have offered to help African countries <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/germany-senegal-gas-plan-sparks-outcry-from-environmentalists/a-62673733">produce more natural gas</a> and have <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/qatar-to-help-germany-cut-reliance-on-russian-gas-says-minister/a-61191584">courted authoritarian regimes</a>. The Biden administration is <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/03/19/1086925726/gas-prices-oil-crude-drilling">urging companies to extract more oil and gas</a>, has tried to <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/12/biden-vows-consequences-for-saudi-arabia-after-oil-output-cuts">pressure Saudi Arabia</a> to produce more oil, and considered <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/12/world/americas/venezuela-us-sanctions.html">lifting sanctions against Venezuela</a>.</p>
<p>However, Europe also has a growing <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/infographs/energy_dashboard/endash.html?geo=EU27_2020&year=2020&language=EN&detail=1&nrg_bal=&unit=MTOE&chart=chart_two&modal=0">renewable energy supply</a> that has helped <a href="https://ember-climate.org/press-releases/eus-record-growth-in-wind-and-solar-avoids-e11bn-in-gas-costs-during-war/">cushion some of the impact</a>. A quarter of the European Union’s electricity comes from solar and wind, <a href="https://ember-climate.org/press-releases/eus-record-growth-in-wind-and-solar-avoids-e11bn-in-gas-costs-during-war/">avoiding billions of euros</a> in fossil fuel costs. Globally, <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-investment-2022/overview-and-key-findings">investments in the clean energy transition increased</a> by about 16% in 2022, the International Energy Agency estimates.</p>
<h2>Developing countries face complex challenges</h2>
<p>If Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a wake-up call to accelerate the clean energy transition in wealthier countries, the situation is much more complex in developing countries. </p>
<p>Low-income countries are being <a href="https://www.undp.org/press-releases/global-cost-living-crisis-catalyzed-war-ukraine-sending-tens-millions-poverty-warns-un-development-programme">hit hard by the impact of Russia’s war</a>, not only by high energy costs, but also by decreases in <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/17/infographic-russia-ukraine-and-the-global-wheat-supply-interactive">grain</a> and <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/chart-gallery/gallery/chart-detail/?chartId=104023">cooking oil</a> exports. The more these countries are dependent on foreign oil and gas imports for their energy supply, the more they will be exposed to global market gyrations. </p>
<p>Renewable energy can reduce some of that exposure.</p>
<p>The costs of solar and wind energy have <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/cheap-renewables-growth#the-price-decline-of-electricity-from-renewable-sources">dropped dramatically in the past decade</a> and now represent the cheapest sources of energy in most regions. But <a href="https://www.iea.org/commentaries/for-the-first-time-in-decades-the-number-of-people-without-access-to-electricity-is-set-to-increase-in-2022">advances in expanding access to clean electricity</a> have been set back by the war. <a href="https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/cost-of-capital-observatory">Borrowing costs can also be a barrier</a> for low-income countries, and those costs will increase as countries raise interest rates to fight inflation.</p>
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<p>As part of the Paris Agreement, wealthy countries were supposed to make good on promises to make US$100 billion per year <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-021-02846-3">available for climate finance</a>, but the actual amounts provided have <a href="https://www.oxfam.org/en/press-releases/true-value-climate-finance-third-what-developed-countries-report-oxfam">fallen short</a>. </p>
<p>To achieve the Paris Agreement targets, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-31734-1">coal, oil and natural gas consumption must decrease dramatically</a> in the next decade or two. International cooperation will be necessary to help poorer countries expand energy access and transition to <a href="https://unfccc.int/process/the-paris-agreement/long-term-strategies">low-emissions development pathways</a>.</p>
<h2>Africa’s fossil fuels and stranded asset risks</h2>
<p>A number of developing countries have their own fossil fuel resources, and some in Africa have been calling for <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/06/gas-energy-africa-iea/">increasing production</a>, although not without <a href="https://www.powershiftafrica.org/latest/press-releases/outrage-as-african-leaders-expected-to-push-for-fossil-fuel-investment">pushback</a>. </p>
<p>Without a strong alternative <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-022-01152-0">within local contexts for sustainable energy resources</a>, and with wealthy countries scrambling for fossil fuels, developing countries will exploit fossil resources – just as the wealthiest countries have done for over a century. For example, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-07/tanzania-to-sign-key-40-billion-lng-project-accords-next-month?sref=Hjm5biAW">Tanzania’s energy minister</a>, January Makamba, told Bloomberg during the U.N. climate conference that his country expects to sign agreements with Shell and other oil majors for a $40 billion liquefied natural gas export project.</p>
<p>While this intersection of interests could <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/solar-wind-force-poverty-on-africa-climate-change-uganda-11635092219">boost some developing countries</a>, it can also set up future challenges.</p>
<p>Encouraging the construction of new fossil-fuel infrastructure in Africa – presumably to be earmarked for Europe in the short to medium term – may help ameliorate some near-term supply shortages, but <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/the-future-of-african-oil-and-gas-positioning-for-the-energy-transition">how long will those customers need the fuel</a>? And <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2017/06/15/equatorial-guinea-oil-wealth-squandered-and-stolen">how much of that income will benefit the people</a> of those countries?</p>
<p>The IEA sees <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2022/executive-summary">natural gas demand plateauing</a> by 2030 and oil and coal demand falling, even without more ambitious climate policies. Any <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/publications/massive-gas-expansion-risks-overtaking-positive-climate-policies/">infrastructure built today</a> for short-term supplies risks becoming a <a href="https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2017/03/cust.htm">stranded asset</a>, worthless in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-31734-1">a low-emissions world</a>.</p>
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<img alt="Layer chart shows natural gas use leveling off in the 2020s while coal and oil demand fall." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494535/original/file-20221109-16841-mviuk5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494535/original/file-20221109-16841-mviuk5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494535/original/file-20221109-16841-mviuk5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494535/original/file-20221109-16841-mviuk5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494535/original/file-20221109-16841-mviuk5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=628&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494535/original/file-20221109-16841-mviuk5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=628&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494535/original/file-20221109-16841-mviuk5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=628&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The International Energy Agency’s projections show natural gas demand plateauing soon.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/fossil-fuel-demand-in-the-stated-policies-scenario-1900-2050">IEA 2022</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Encouraging developing countries to take on debt risk to invest in fossil fuel extraction for which the world will have no use would potentially do these countries a great disservice, taking advantage of them for short-term gain. </p>
<p>The world has made progress on emissions in recent years, and the worst warming projections from a decade ago seem to be <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-020-00177-3">highly unlikely</a> now. But <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/scientists-compare-climate-change-impacts-at-1-5c-and-2c/">every tenth of a degree</a> has an impact, and the current “business-as-usual” path still <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/">leads the planet toward</a> warming levels with climate change costs that are hard to contemplate, especially for the most vulnerable countries. The outcomes from the climate conference and <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/adv/2022/11/11/g20-ministers-envision-joint-commitment-on-energy-transition-acceleration-at-bali-summit.html">G-20 summit</a> will give an indication of whether the global community is willing to accelerate the transition.</p>
<p><em>This article was updated Nov. 14, 2022, with the G-20 summit start.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193944/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Brecha has received funding from the European Union to do research on energy access in developing countries. He has also been affiliated with the nonprofit think tank Climate Analytics and worked with developing countries on NDC revisions, funded through the German government. All views expressed here are his own. </span></em></p>Natural gas projects in Africa might help reduce supply shortages temporarily, but they could soon become stranded assets.Robert Brecha, Professor of Sustainability, University of DaytonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1930772022-11-10T13:41:45Z2022-11-10T13:41:45Z8 billion people: Four ways climate change and population growth combine to threaten public health, with global consequences<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494155/original/file-20221108-12-bg01z4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=522%2C226%2C3071%2C2166&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Infectious diseases like COVID-19 top the list of health concerns.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/an-elderly-man-a-resident-of-the-sprawling-township-of-news-photo/1211082728">Marco Longari/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/ocho-mil-millones-de-personas-asi-amenazan-a-la-salud-publica-el-cambio-climatico-y-la-superpoblacion-194421">Leer in español</a></em></p>
<p>There are questions that worry me profoundly as a population- and environmental-health scientist. </p>
<p>Will we have enough food for a growing global population? How will we take care of more people in the next pandemic? What will heat do to millions with hypertension? Will countries wage water wars because of increasing droughts? </p>
<p>These risks all have three things in common: health, climate change and a growing population that the United Nations determined <a href="https://www.un.org/en/desa/world-population-reach-8-billion-15-november-2022">passed 8 billion</a> people in November 2022 – double the population of just 48 years ago.</p>
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<p>In my <a href="https://www.health.pitt.edu/people/ant-2">40-year career</a>, first working in the Amazon rainforest and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and then in academia, I have encountered many public health threats, but none so intransigent and pervasive as climate change. </p>
<p>Of the multitude of climate-related adverse health effects, the following four represent the greatest public health concerns for a growing population.</p>
<h2>Infectious diseases</h2>
<p>Researchers have found that <a href="https://theconversation.com/58-of-human-infectious-diseases-can-be-worsened-by-climate-change-we-scoured-77-000-studies-to-map-the-pathways-188256">over half of all human infectious diseases</a> can be worsened by climate change.</p>
<p>Flooding, for example, can affect water quality and the habitats where dangerous bacteria and vectors like mosquitoes can breed and transmit infectious diseases to people.</p>
<p>Dengue, a painful mosquito-borne viral disease that sickens <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/dengue/about/index.html">about 100 million</a> people a year, becomes more common in warm, wet environments. Its R0, or basic reproduction number – a gauge of how quickly it spreads – <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(22)01540-9">increased by about 12%</a> from the 1950s to the average in 2012-2021, according to the 2022 Lancet Countdown report. Malaria’s season expanded by 31% in highland areas of Latin America and nearly 14% in Africa’s highlands as temperatures rose over the same period.</p>
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<img alt="Rows of beds, some covered with mosquito nets, fill a warehouse-like space. Doctors visit with some of the patients." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493916/original/file-20221107-19-5r15ur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493916/original/file-20221107-19-5r15ur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493916/original/file-20221107-19-5r15ur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493916/original/file-20221107-19-5r15ur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493916/original/file-20221107-19-5r15ur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493916/original/file-20221107-19-5r15ur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493916/original/file-20221107-19-5r15ur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Patients rest in a makeshift dengue ward at a hospital during a severe outbreak in Pakistan in 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/patients-take-rest-on-beds-arranged-inside-a-makeshift-news-photo/1235932771">Arif Ali/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Flooding can also spread waterborne organisms that cause <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-020-04961-4">hepatitis</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.39503.700903.DB">diarrheal diseases</a>, such as cholera, particularly when large numbers of people are displaced by disasters and living in areas with poor water quality for drinking or washing. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/currents.dis.7a2cee9e980f91ad7697b570bcc4b004">Droughts</a>, too, can degrade drinking water quality. As a result, more rodent populations enter into human communities in search of food, increasing the <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/pathogens11010015">potential to spread hantavirus</a>.</p>
<h2>Extreme heat</h2>
<p>Another serious health risk is rising temperatures. </p>
<p>Excessive heat can <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/climate-change-heat-and-health">exacerbate existing health problems</a>, such as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/all.14177">cardiovascular</a> and respiratory diseases. And when heat stress becomes <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/topics/heatstress/heatrelillness.html">heat stroke</a>, it can <a href="https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/heat-stroke/symptoms-causes/syc-20353581">damage the heart, brain and kidneys</a> and become lethal.</p>
<p>Today, about 30% of the global population is exposed to potentially deadly heat stress each year. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that percentage will rise <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/about/frequently-asked-questions/keyfaq3/">to at least 48% and as high as 76%</a> by the end of this century.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493119/original/file-20221102-24-un18ln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493119/original/file-20221102-24-un18ln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493119/original/file-20221102-24-un18ln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493119/original/file-20221102-24-un18ln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493119/original/file-20221102-24-un18ln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493119/original/file-20221102-24-un18ln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493119/original/file-20221102-24-un18ln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493119/original/file-20221102-24-un18ln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Where climate change affects human health.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Centers for Disease Control and Prevention</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In addition to lives lost, heat exposure was projected to have resulted in <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/infographics-do/climate-countdown-2022">470 billion potential work hours lost</a> globally in 2021, with associated income losses totaling up to US$669 billion. As populations grow and heat rises, more people will be relying on air conditioning powered by fossil fuels, which <a href="https://www.iea.org/news/air-conditioning-use-emerges-as-one-of-the-key-drivers-of-global-electricity-demand-growth">further contributes to climate change</a>.</p>
<h2>Food and water security</h2>
<p>Heat also affects food and water security for a growing population.</p>
<p>The Lancet review found that high temperatures in 2021 <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)01540-9/fulltext">shortened the growing season</a> by about 9.3 days on average for corn, or maize, and six days for wheat compared with the 1981-2020 average. Warming oceans, meanwhile, can kill shellfish and shift <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14512">fisheries that coastal communities rely on</a>. Heat waves in 2020 alone resulted in <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)01540-9/fulltext">98 million more</a> people facing food insecurity compared with the 1981-2010 average.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman standing in a field examines a stalk of sorghum" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493915/original/file-20221107-21-i2g9p0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493915/original/file-20221107-21-i2g9p0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493915/original/file-20221107-21-i2g9p0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493915/original/file-20221107-21-i2g9p0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493915/original/file-20221107-21-i2g9p0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493915/original/file-20221107-21-i2g9p0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493915/original/file-20221107-21-i2g9p0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A farmer in Zimbabwe switched to sorghum, a grain crop that can thrive in dry conditions, as drought withered other crops in 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/angeline-kadiki-an-elderly-who-is-a-sorghum-farmer-inspects-news-photo/1130994283">Jekesai Njikizana/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Rising temperatures also affect fresh water supplies through evaporation and by shrinking <a href="https://e360.yale.edu/features/andes-meltdown-new-insights-into-rapidly-retreating-glaciers">mountain glaciers</a> and <a href="https://www.ioes.ucla.edu/project/climate-change-sierra-nevada/">snowpack</a> that historically have kept water flowing through the summer months.</p>
<p>Water scarcity and drought have the potential to displace almost <a href="https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/report/2022/goal-13/">700 million people by 2030</a>, according to U.N. estimates. Combined with population growth and growing energy needs, they can also fuel geopolitical conflicts as countries face food shortages and compete for water.</p>
<h2>Poor air quality</h2>
<p>Air pollution can be <a href="https://theconversation.com/extreme-heat-air-pollution-can-be-deadly-with-the-health-risk-together-worse-than-either-alone-187422">exacerbated by the drivers of climate change</a>. Hot weather and the same fossil fuel gases warming the planet <a href="https://www.lung.org/clean-air/climate-change/climate-change-air-pollution">contribute to ground-level ozone</a>, a key component of smog. That can exacerbate allergies, asthma and other respiratory problems, as well as cardiovascular disease. </p>
<p>Wildfires fueled by hot, dry landscapes <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abi9386">add to the air pollution health risk</a>. Wildfire smoke is laden with tiny particles that can travel deep into the lungs, <a href="https://www.epa.gov/wildfire-smoke-course/why-wildfire-smoke-health-concern">causing heart and respiratory problems</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Three school girls with backpacks walk through smog along a road while covering their mouths with handkerchiefs." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493917/original/file-20221107-25-5gvhig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493917/original/file-20221107-25-5gvhig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493917/original/file-20221107-25-5gvhig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493917/original/file-20221107-25-5gvhig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493917/original/file-20221107-25-5gvhig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493917/original/file-20221107-25-5gvhig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493917/original/file-20221107-25-5gvhig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Smog in New Delhi, India, is an ongoing problem. It got so bad in 2017 that the city temporarily closed its primary schools.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/indian-schoolchildren-cover-their-faces-as-they-walk-to-news-photo/871511920">Sajjad Hussain/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What can we do about it?</h2>
<p>Many groups and medical experts are working to counter this cascade of negative climate consequences on human health.</p>
<p>The U.S. National Academy of Medicine has embarked on an ambitious <a href="https://nam.edu/programs/climate-change-and-human-health/">grand challenge in climate change, human health, and equity</a> to ramp up research. At many academic institutions, including the University of Pittsburgh’s School of Public Health, where I am dean, climate and health are being embedded in research, teaching and service.</p>
<p>Addressing the health burden on low- and middle-income countries is pivotal. Often, the <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK525226/">most vulnerable</a> people in these countries <a href="https://sdgs.un.org/goals/goal13">face the greatest harms from climate change</a> without having the resources to protect their health and environment. Population growth can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP10384">deepen these iniquities</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.paho.org/en/news/19-8-2022-eu-and-paho-supporting-nine-caribbean-countries-integration-health-national">Adaptation assessments</a> can help high-risk countries prepare for the effects of climate change. Development groups are also leading projects to <a href="https://www.cgiar.org/">expand the cultivation of crops</a> that can thrive in dry conditions. The <a href="https://www.paho.org/en">Pan American Health Organization</a>, which focuses on the Caribbean, is an example of how countries are working to reduce communicable diseases and advance regional capacity to counter the impact of climate change.</p>
<p>Ultimately, reducing the health risks will require <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2022">reducing the greenhouse gas emissions</a> that are driving climate change. </p>
<p>Countries worldwide <a href="https://unfccc.int/process/the-convention/history-of-the-convention#Essential-background">committed in 1992</a> to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Thirty years later, global emissions are <a href="https://www.unep.org/events/publication-launch/emissions-gap-report-2022">only beginning to flatten</a>, and communities around the world are increasingly suffering extreme heat waves and devastating floods and droughts.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://unfccc.int/event/cop-27">U.N. climate change talks</a>, which in my view aren’t focusing enough on health, can help bring attention to key climate impacts that harm health. As U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres noted: While we celebrate our advances, “at the same time, it is a reminder of our shared responsibility to care for our planet and a moment to reflect on where we still fall short of our commitments to one another.”</p>
<p><em>Samantha Totoni, a Ph.D. candidate at the University of Pittsburgh School of Public Health, contributed to this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193077/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Maureen Lichtveld does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The human population has doubled in 48 years, and worsening climate change has left the world facing serious health risks, from infectious diseases to hunger and heat stress.Maureen Lichtveld, Dean of the School of Public Health, University of PittsburghLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1890512022-09-06T00:14:15Z2022-09-06T00:14:15ZMicroplastics are common in homes across 29 countries. New research shows who’s most at risk<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481984/original/file-20220831-22-kajqnp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C1727%2C3808%2C2510&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Pexels</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The evidence is clear: microplastics have contaminated <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01143-3">every corner of the globe</a>. We can’t escape exposure to these tiny bits of plastic (less than 5mm across) in the environment, which includes the homes where people <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/7500165">spend most of their time</a>. </p>
<p>Recent research has discovered <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412022001258">microplastics in the blood of humans</a>. However, the question of harm to humans <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7068600/">remains unresolved</a>. Despite concerns that some substances in microplastics could cause cancer or damage our DNA, we still have a poor grasp of the true risks of harm. </p>
<p>Our <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2022.119957">study of global microplastics</a> exposure inside homes across 29 countries, published today, shows people living in lower-income countries and young children are at greater risk of exposure. But our analysis of the chemical composition of microplastics in the home shows the specific health risk is surprisingly low. The study covered all the continents, including Australia.</p>
<p>The current challenge in understanding health risks from microplastics is the very limited data on toxic effects of the petrochemicals used in plastics production. </p>
<p>A recurrent theme in the environmental health research literature is that early concerns about suspect chemicals and related compounds, including those found in plastics, <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/environment/chemicals/non-toxic/pdf/NTE%20main%20report%20final.pdf">were eventually justified</a>. The effects of suspect substances only become clear after extensive toxicological and epidemiological research.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1164726964047028225"}"></div></p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/youre-eating-microplastics-in-ways-you-dont-even-realise-97649">You're eating microplastics in ways you don't even realise</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What did the new study look at?</h2>
<p>Our study investigated three main questions relating to exposure to microplastics inside homes:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>what are the impacts in different countries across the world?</p></li>
<li><p>who is most at risk?</p></li>
<li><p>what are the specific health risks?</p></li>
</ol>
<p>We reached out to residents across 29 countries to collect their indoor atmospheric dust over a one-month period. At 108 homes sampled across these countries, we also collected information about households and behaviours. This helped us to better understand possible sources and causes of microplastics in dust. These data included:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>how often floors were cleaned</p></li>
<li><p>flooring type</p></li>
<li><p>presence or absence of children</p></li>
<li><p>number of people living in each home</p></li>
<li><p>percentage of full-time workers.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>In each home, atmospheric dust particles were collected in specially cleaned and prepared glass Petri dishes. We measured the levels of microplastics in the collected dust using a suite of microscopic techniques and instruments. We used <a href="https://www.chem.uci.edu/%7Edmitryf/manuals/Fundamentals/FTIR%20principles.pdf">infrared spectroscopy</a> – which identifies substances by how they interact with light – to determine the chemical composition of these microplastics.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/house-dust-from-35-countries-reveals-our-global-toxic-contaminant-exposure-and-health-risk-172499">House dust from 35 countries reveals our global toxic contaminant exposure and health risk</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What did the study find?</h2>
<p>The household dust contained a wide variety of synthetic <a href="https://www.livescience.com/60682-polymers.html">polymer</a> fibres. The most common were:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>polyester (as polyethylene terephthalate) at 9.1%, which is used in clothing fabrics</p></li>
<li><p>polyamide (7.7%), which is mainly used in textiles</p></li>
<li><p>polyvinyls (5.8%), which are used in floor varnishes</p></li>
<li><p>polyurethane (4.4%), which is used in surface coatings of furniture and in bedding</p></li>
<li><p>polyethylene (3.6%), a common polymer used in food containers and reusable bags. </p></li>
</ul>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481992/original/file-20220831-1921-rycya7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481992/original/file-20220831-1921-rycya7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481992/original/file-20220831-1921-rycya7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1297&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481992/original/file-20220831-1921-rycya7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1297&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481992/original/file-20220831-1921-rycya7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1297&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481992/original/file-20220831-1921-rycya7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1630&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481992/original/file-20220831-1921-rycya7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1630&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481992/original/file-20220831-1921-rycya7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1630&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S026974912201171X?via%3Dihub">Author provided, The Conversation</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>We examined the prevalence and risk of microplastics according to the gross national income of each country, grouped as low, medium and high-income (such as Australia). Overall, we found lower-income countries have higher loads of microplastics, which were deposited at an average daily rate of 3,518 fibres per square metre. The rates for medium-income and high-income countries were 1,268 and 1,257 fibres/m²/day.</p>
<p>In low-income countries, the most prevalent synthetic polymer fibres were made of polyurethane (11.1% of all fibres in samples). In high-income countries, polyamide and polyester were the most prevalent microplastic types (11.2% and 9.8% respectively). </p>
<hr>
<p><iframe id="46JpN" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/46JpN/6/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p><iframe id="lX15k" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/lX15k/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<hr>
<h2>So what are the health risks?</h2>
<p>For the first time we could attribute the health risk across countries according to incomes. Our analyses showed lower-income countries are at higher risk from microplastic pollution. This aligns with <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(17)32345-0/fulltext">research findings</a> on other toxic exposures – poorer countries and people are most at risk from pollution. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, we found the overall risk from microplastics exposure was low. We used the US Environmental Protection Agency’s <a href="https://www.epa.gov/iris">toxicity information</a> on polymers in the microplastics to calculate health risk based on the types and levels we detected. </p>
<p>Low-income countries had a higher lifetime risk of cancers due to indoor microplastic exposure at 4.7 people per million. High-income countries were next at 1.9 per million, with medium-income countries at 1.2 per million. </p>
<p>We attributed these differences in cancer risk to the different percentages of carcinogenic substances in the microplastics found in household dust.</p>
<p>We calculated the sum of the carcinogenic risk from inhalation and ingestion of the following chemicals in the microplastic fibres: vinyl chloride (polyvinyl chloride), acrylonitrile (polyacrylics) and propylene oxide (polyurethane). Because toxicity data for polymers are limited, the assessment was a minimum estimate of true risk.</p>
<p>Children are at greater risk irrespective of income, which is true for many types of environmental exposures. This is because of their smaller size and weight, and tendency to have more contact with the floor and to put their hands in their mouths more often than adults.</p>
<p>Our analysis indicated that the microplastics came mainly from sources inside the home, and not from outside. Synthetic polymer-based materials are used widely in high-income countries in products such as carpets, furniture, clothing and food containers. We anticipated levels of microplastic shedding in the home might be greater in these countries. </p>
<p>However, analysis of the data showed the only factor obviously linked with levels of microplastics in deposited dust was how often they were vacuumed. Frequent vacuuming reduces microplastic levels. </p>
<p>Vacuuming was more frequent in higher-income countries. Factors that influence the type of cleaning include people’s preference for sweeping and mopping versus vacuuming, as well as their access to and capacity to afford electronic vacuum cleaners.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Person vacuuming a rug on a timber floor in the home" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482223/original/file-20220901-24-dmslui.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482223/original/file-20220901-24-dmslui.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482223/original/file-20220901-24-dmslui.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482223/original/file-20220901-24-dmslui.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482223/original/file-20220901-24-dmslui.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482223/original/file-20220901-24-dmslui.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482223/original/file-20220901-24-dmslui.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The levels of microplastics in the home appear to be reduced by frequent vacuuming.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Liliana Drew/Pexels</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/were-all-ingesting-microplastics-at-home-and-these-might-be-toxic-for-our-health-here-are-some-tips-to-reduce-your-risk-159537">We're all ingesting microplastics at home, and these might be toxic for our health. Here are some tips to reduce your risk</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What can we do to reduce the risks?</h2>
<p>Based on this and our previous <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2021.117064">study data</a>, it is clear vacuuming regularly, instead of sweeping, is associated with less airborne microplastics indoors. Other obvious actions – such as choosing natural fibres for clothing, carpets and furnishings instead of petrochemical-based polymer fibres – can reduce the shedding of microplastics indoors.</p>
<p>Future research needs to focus on developing more complete profiles of the harmful effects of each of the toxic petrochemical-based synthetic polymers that can produce microplastics. This will give us a better understanding of the risks of exposure to these ubiquitous pollutants.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189051/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Patrick Taylor received funding via an Australian Government Citizen Science Grant (2017-2020), CSG55984 ‘Citizen insights to the composition and risks of household dust’ (the DustSafe project). The VegeSafe and DustSafe programs are supported by publication donations to Macquarie University. He is a full-time employee of EPA Victoria, appointed to the statutory role of Chief Environmental Scientist.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Neda Sharifi Soltani works for Macquarie University. She receives funding from Macquarie University. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Scott P. Wilson has received funding from state and federal grants, corporate entities and philanthropic and charitable organisations to undertake his research . He undertook this work while employed by Macquarie University but is currently employed by Earthwatch Australia. </span></em></p>It’s impossible to escape exposure to microplastics and a new study confirms they’re in household dust around the world. But the health risks appear surprisingly low, and vacuuming makes a difference.Mark Patrick Taylor, Chief Environmental Scientist, EPA Victoria; Honorary Professor, School of Natural Sciences, Macquarie UniversityNeda Sharifi Soltani, Academic Casual, School of Natural Sciences, Macquarie UniversityScott P. Wilson, Chief Scientist, Earthwatch Australia, Honorary Senior Research Fellow, School of Natural Sciences, Macquarie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1752242022-02-10T16:21:53Z2022-02-10T16:21:53ZHeat waves hit the poor hardest – calculating the rising impact on those least able to adapt to the warming climate<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444362/original/file-20220203-25-nadrok.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C8%2C3000%2C1985&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Banana plantation workers in Panama find shade under a vehicle during a break.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/indian-migrant-workers-rest-in-the-shadow-of-a-transport-news-photo/156543327">Jan Sochor/Latincontent/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Spend time in a developing country during a heat wave and it quickly becomes clear why poorer nations face some of the greatest risks from climate change. Most homes <a href="https://www.iea.org/commentaries/helping-a-warming-world-to-keep-cool">don’t have air conditioning</a>, and even <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijheh.2018.01.004">health clinics can get overheated</a>.</p>
<p>These countries tend to be in the hottest parts of world, and <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-why-africas-heatwaves-are-a-forgotten-impact-of-climate-change">their risk</a> of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00079-6">dangerous heat waves</a> is <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-08070-4">rising as the planet warms</a>. </p>
<p>In a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002488">published study</a>, our team of <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=S1J4kAoAAAAJ&hl=en">climate</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=tGGNDyUAAAAJ">scientists</a>, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=044CgyIAAAAJ&view_op=list_works">economists</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=ZaW8ZbsAAAAJ&hl=en">engineers</a> found that the poorest parts of the world are likely to be two to five times more exposed to heat waves than richer countries by the 2060s. By the end of the century, the lowest-income quarter of the global population’s heat exposure will almost match that of the entire rest of the world.</p>
<h2>Capacity to adapt to rising heat is crucial</h2>
<p>Heat waves are often assessed by how frequent or intense they are, but vulnerability involves more than that. </p>
<p>A key factor in the amount of harm heat waves cause is people’s capacity to adapt with measures like cooling technology and the power to run it.</p>
<p>To assess how heat wave exposure is changing, we analyzed heat waves around the world over the past 40 years and then used climate models to project ahead. Importantly, we also incorporated estimates of countries’ ability to adapt to rising temperatures and lower their heat exposure risk. </p>
<p>We found that while wealthy countries can buffer their risk by rapidly investing in measures to adapt to climate change, the poorest quarter of the world – areas likely to be slower to adapt – <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002488">will face escalating heat risk</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444125/original/file-20220202-23-1kgsye4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Charts show increasing heat wave exposure for low-income people" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444125/original/file-20220202-23-1kgsye4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444125/original/file-20220202-23-1kgsye4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444125/original/file-20220202-23-1kgsye4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444125/original/file-20220202-23-1kgsye4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444125/original/file-20220202-23-1kgsye4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444125/original/file-20220202-23-1kgsye4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444125/original/file-20220202-23-1kgsye4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The highest exposure to heat waves is expected in the lowest-income countries.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2021EF002488">Mohammad Reza Alizadeh</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Poverty slows the ability to adapt to rising heat</h2>
<p>Heat waves are among the deadliest climate and weather-related disasters, and they can be destructive to crops, livestock and infrastructure. Currently, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3322">about 30% of the global population</a> lives in areas where heat and humidity levels can be deadly on at least 20 days a year, studies show, and the risk is rising.</p>
<p>Adaptation measures, such as cooling centers, home-cooling technology, urban planning and <a href="https://www.vox.com/22557563/how-to-redesign-cities-for-heat-waves-climate-change">designs focused on reducing heat</a>, can lower a population’s heat exposure impact. However, a country’s ability to implement adaptation measures generally depends on its <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.565">financial resources, governance, culture and knowledge</a>. Poverty affects each. Many <a href="https://www.oecd.org/env/cc/2502872.pdf">developing countries struggle to provide basic services</a> let alone protections from escalating disasters in a warmer future.</p>
<p>The compounding effects of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.565">economic, institutional and political</a> factors cause a lag in low-income countries’ ability to adapt to the changing climate.</p>
<p>We estimate that the poorest quarter of the world lags the wealthiest in adapting to rising temperatures by about 15 years on average. This estimate is based on the pace of preparation and support for adaptation plans described in the <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/adaptation-gap-report-2020">U.N. Environment Program’s Adaptation Gap Report</a>. The actual lag will vary because of wealth inequities, but that estimate provides a broad picture of the rising risks.</p>
<h2>Heat risk is up globally, but more in poor regions</h2>
<p>Looking back over recent decades, we found a 60% increase in heat wave days in the 2010s compared with the 1980s. We defined a heat wave as extreme daily temperatures above the 97th percentile for the area, for at least three consecutive days. </p>
<p>We also found that heat wave seasons were getting longer, with more frequent early- and late-season heat waves that can increase heat-related deaths.</p>
<p>Our analysis showed that people’s average heat wave exposure in the poorest quarter of the world during the 2010s was more than 40% greater than in the wealthiest quarter – roughly 2.4 billion person-days of heat wave exposure per year compared with 1.7 billion. A person-day is the number of people exposed to the heat wave times the number of days.</p>
<p>This heat wave risk in poor countries has often been <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-why-africas-heatwaves-are-a-forgotten-impact-of-climate-change">overlooked</a> by the developed world, in part because <a href="https://theconversation.com/extreme-heat-is-a-threat-to-lives-in-africa-but-its-not-being-monitored-149921">heat deaths aren’t consistently tracked</a> in many countries.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man in shorts and a T-shirt sits in a store selling electric fans." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444365/original/file-20220203-15-8b4t59.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444365/original/file-20220203-15-8b4t59.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444365/original/file-20220203-15-8b4t59.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444365/original/file-20220203-15-8b4t59.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444365/original/file-20220203-15-8b4t59.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444365/original/file-20220203-15-8b4t59.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444365/original/file-20220203-15-8b4t59.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fans can help, when people have electricity to run them. A man in India waits for customers on a day in 2020 when parts of the country expected to reach 122 degrees Fahrenheit.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/man-waits-for-customers-displaying-fans-at-his-store-amid-news-photo/1215441006">Jewel Samad/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>By the 2030s, we project that the lowest-income quarter of the world’s population will face 12.3 billion person-days of heat wave exposure, compared with 15.3 billion for the rest of the world combined. </p>
<p>By the 2090s, we estimated it will reach 19.8 billion person-days of heat wave exposure in the poorest quarter, almost as much heat wave exposure as the three higher-income quarters together. </p>
<h2>Climate justice and future needs</h2>
<p>The results provide more evidence that investing in adaptation worldwide will be crucial to avoid climate-driven human disasters.</p>
<p>The world’s wealthiest nations, which have produced the lion’s share of greenhouse gases driving climate change, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-021-02846-3">promised over a decade ago to direct US$100 billion annually</a> by 2020 to help the poor countries adapt to climate change and mitigate its effects. <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/climate-finance-roadmap-to-us100-billion.pdf">Some of that money is flowing</a>, but wealthy countries <a href="https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/frances-macron-says-leaders-finalised-accord-on-$100-bln-in-climate-finance">have been slow to meet the goal</a>.</p>
<p>Studies meanwhile have estimated that economic loss from future climate damage in developing countries will reach <a href="https://us.boell.org/en/unpacking-finance-loss-and-damage">between $290 billion and $580 billion</a> <a href="https://oxfamilibrary.openrepository.com/bitstream/handle/10546/582427/rr-impacts-low-aggregate-indcs-ambition-251115-en.pdf;jsessionid=C2BF26E9CF0705630671F3821B7C7AE9?sequence=1">a year</a> by 2030 and continue to escalate.</p>
<p>Increasing international assistance can help poorer countries adapt to the harm caused by climate change. Companies and innovators can also play an important role by developing low-cost microgrid electricity and cooling technology to help poor countries survive escalating heat waves.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/175224/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The risk from heat waves is about more than intensity – being able to cool off is essential, and that’s hard to find in many low-income areas of the world.Mojtaba Sadegh, Associate Professor of Civil Engineering, Boise State UniversityJohn Abatzoglou, Associate Professor of Engineering, University of California, MercedMohammad Reza Alizadeh, Postdoctoral Researcher in Environmental Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1652982021-08-11T12:29:32Z2021-08-11T12:29:32ZCredit ratings are punishing poorer countries for investing more in health care during the pandemic<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415530/original/file-20210810-19-178x8bn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=175%2C146%2C4607%2C3105&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Morocco wanted to spend more on health care. As a result, its credit rating was cut. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/VirusOutbreakMoroccoVaccination/14a66c3698cb4f118b52942707c17d6a/photo?Query=Morocco%20covid-19&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=210&currentItemNo=53">AP Photo/Abdeljalil Bounhar</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/dspd/2020/07/recovering-from-covid19/">depends on sustained investment</a> in health care and social services. But while rich countries like the U.S. <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/imf-and-covid19/Fiscal-Policies-Database-in-Response-to-COVID-19">can borrow and spend relatively easily</a>, low-income nations face a major obstacle: their credit ratings. </p>
<p>A credit rating, like a credit score, <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-credit-ratings-matter-and-why-they-cant-be-ignored-69361">is an assessment of the ability of a borrower</a> – whether it’s a company or a government – to repay its debts. Lower credit ratings drive up the cost of borrowing.</p>
<p>This threat prompted <a href="https://group30.org/publications/detail/4799">some poorer countries to avoid tapping investors</a> for vital financing during the pandemic, while other governments that made plans to spend more on public services <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ratings-sovereign-idUKKBN2B92OY">were hit with credit ratings downgrades</a> from private companies. </p>
<p>My <a href="https://sase.confex.com/sase/2021/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/17513">forthcoming research</a> shows that when credit ratings fall, countries tend to spend less on health care. This should be a cause for concern as the delta variant of the coronavirus <a href="https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html">drives up case counts across the world</a>. </p>
<h2>Punished for health care spending</h2>
<p>A wide gap has emerged between rich and poor countries in terms of how much they are spending to fight the coronavirus’s impact and shore up their health care infrastructure. </p>
<p>Governments in rich countries <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/how-to-balance-debt-and-development/">have provided trillions of dollars</a> in direct and indirect support for their economies, on average about 24% of their gross domestic product. Developing economies, on the other hand, have been able to spend only a tiny fraction of that, an average of about 2% of their GDP. </p>
<p>Recent research found that a country’s credit rating <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w27461">was the largest factor</a> in how much a government spent on COVID-19 relief. That is, the lower a country’s rating, the less it was able to spend on health care and other social services. </p>
<p>For instance, Ivory Coast and Benin are the only two countries in sub-Saharan Africa that <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/how-to-balance-debt-and-development/">have been able to borrow in international markets</a> since the pandemic began. Others chose not to borrow, at least in part, it seems, <a href="https://group30.org/images/uploads/publications/G30_Sovereign_Debt_and_Financing_for_Recovery_after_the_COVID-19_Shock-_Preliminary_Report_1.pdf">out of fear of the ratings downgrades</a> that might result. This has prevented them from financing much-needed spending. </p>
<p>The fear is justified. Countries that planned to increase spending, such as Morocco and Ethiopia, were punished for it. Morocco’s credit rating, for example, was downgraded to speculative grade, or “junk,” by <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/morocco-rating-fitch-idUSL8N2HE5YL">Fitch</a> and <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-02/morocco-cut-to-junk-by-s-p-kn0qnt09">Standard & Poor’s</a> because of its plan to spend more on social services. <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2016/08/17/analysis-how-do-credit-downgrades-affect-short-term-government-borrowing">The ratings cuts will make it much harder</a>, and more expensive, for it to borrow from international investors.</p>
<p>And Moody’s Investors Service <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/ethiopia-bonds/update-1-moodys-downgrade-over-g20-common-framework-hits-ethiopian-bonds-idUSL5N2N52KD">slashed Ethiopia’s credit rating</a> after the country sought debt relief from a <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/About/FAQ/sovereign-debt#Section%205">new Group of 20 program</a> so that it <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-07/ethiopia-in-negotiations-to-restructure-1-billion-more-of-debt-kqte6iuj?sref=Hjm5biAW">could spend more on supporting</a> its economy and citizens.</p>
<p>Overall, despite spending far less during the pandemic, poorer countries <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ratings-sovereign-idUKKBN2B92OY">were much more likely than wealthier ones to see their credit ratings cut</a> by Fitch, Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s – the three biggest private credit rating agencies. </p>
<p>Low-income countries are therefore forced to choose between keeping their credit ratings stable and undertaking critical social services spending. </p>
<p>In my own research, which is currently under peer review, I looked at ratings changes across a group of 140 countries from 2000 to 2018. I found that downgrades in credit ratings lowered public spending on health care. </p>
<h2>The IMF’s rating system</h2>
<p>Even the International Monetary Fund, which is the main global agency that oversees development finance, uses a rating system that tends to penalize governments for any increase in public spending. That includes spending invested in their health care systems. </p>
<p>The IMF evaluates the creditworthiness of countries through a system it calls its <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/About/Factsheets/Sheets/2016/08/01/16/39/Debt-Sustainability-Framework-for-Low-Income-Countries">debt sustainability framework</a>. Countries are classified into three levels of “<a href="https://www.imf.org/en/About/Factsheets/Sheets/2016/08/01/16/39/Debt-Sustainability-Framework-for-Low-Income-Countries">credit capacity</a>” - strong, medium or weak. </p>
<p>Weak countries are deemed to have a low ability to handle additional debt based on their current levels of indebtedness. No distinction is made <a href="https://www.brettonwoodsproject.org/2017/12/debt-sustainability-review-tinkering-around-edges-crises-loom/">between debt</a> that was a result of important long-term investments in social services like health and education and debt incurred by more wasteful spending. Countries are then required by the IMF to improve their ratings as a condition of aid, such as by putting the focus on debt repayment, short-term economic objectives and across-the-board spending cuts. </p>
<p>An op-ed in The Lancet <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(14)70377-8">blamed similar IMF-induced austerity</a> in the early 2000s for a reduction in health care spending in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, leaving them susceptible to the Ebola crisis in 2014. The three were the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/19/guinea-ebola-outbreak-declared-over-by-who">worst-affected countries</a> in an epidemic that lasted two years and led to over <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/history/2014-2016-outbreak/index.html">11,000 deaths</a>. </p>
<h2>Ratings reform</h2>
<p>The IMF recently announced a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/09/us/politics/g20-imf-vaccines.html">plan to issue US$650 billion</a> in reserve funds that low-income countries can use to buy vaccines and expand health care. While that should help more countries not to have to choose between credit ratings and the well-being of their citizens during the pandemic, it’s only a short-term fix.</p>
<p>A recent United Nations report <a href="https://undocs.org/A/HRC/46/29">urged reform of how private credit ratings agencies are regulated</a>, arguing they lack accountability and make it hard for poor countries to fulfill their human rights obligations. A proposal to put a moratorium on the sovereign credit ratings of debt-burdened countries during crises <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-emerging-debt-ratings/credit-downgrade-buffer-proposed-for-poor-nations-seeking-debt-help-study-idUSKCN2DG0US">would also help provide a buffer</a>. </p>
<p>Permanent changes in how the IMF and private credit ratings agencies evaluate debt, however, may be needed so that they’re not penalizing countries for making important investments in health care and other public services. That would help countries can build their health care infrastructure so that they aren’t caught off guard by the next pandemic.</p>
<p>[<em>The Conversation’s Politics + Society editors pick need-to-know stories.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/politics-weekly-74/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=politics-need-to-know">Sign up for Politics Weekly</a>._]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/165298/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ramya Devan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Low-income countries that sought to spend more on health care during the pandemic have been hit with ratings downgrades, while others avoided borrowing entirely.Ramya Devan, Professor of Economics, Stockton UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1066182019-01-15T15:11:29Z2019-01-15T15:11:29ZHuge disparities in C-sections highlights inequalities in healthcare<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/252845/original/file-20190108-32154-1yb497e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">C-sections can have long-term complications for moms and babies.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reynardt/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>When pregnancy or childbirth go wrong, access to Caesarean section – usually known as C-section – can be the difference between life and death for both the woman and her baby.</p>
<p>Because they can save women’s and infants’ lives, C-sections should be universally accessible. But they aren’t. This is clear from the fact that there’s a huge disparity in C-section rates between countries, and even within countries. These patterns are highlighted in a recent Lancet series “<a href="https://www.thelancet.com/series/caesarean-section">Optimising Caesarean section use</a>”.</p>
<p>The reports show that the number of children born by C-section worldwide was 29.7 million (21.1% of all births) in 2015 – nearly double the number in 2000. Wealthier women and private healthcare facilities are major contributors to the global increase of non-medical (those that aren’t absolutely necessary for medical reasons) C-sections. </p>
<p>The numbers have also gone up in developing countries, but not by nearly as much. And when it comes to access there are huge disparities between developed and developing countries as well as within low- and middle-income countries. </p>
<p>The Lancet reports show that access to C-sections remains a challenge in many low-income countries, particularly for poor women. This is especially true in sub-Saharan Africa. This means that poorer women – and their babies – are at a higher risk of dying during childbirth if there are complications.</p>
<p>Countries reporting low use have inadequate health facilities and are not equipped to provide emergency C-sections, especially in rural areas and urban informal settlements. Wealthier women generally have better access to not only the procedure but quality healthcare post-birth. </p>
<p>The Lancet reports highlight how much work still needs to be done to ensure that, on the one hand, poor women who need the service get it, and on the other, that it’s not overused and abused.</p>
<p>Understanding the factors that drive these trends is key if the problems are going to be solved.</p>
<h2>Disparities</h2>
<p>The rise in C-sections – most of which is happening in developed countries – isn’t viewed as a universally good thing. While more women can now access life-saving surgery, there’s also evidence that C-sections are being used when they’re not needed. For example, wealthier women opt to have a C-section for non-medical reasons such as to avoid the <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(18)31927-5.pdf">pain of childbirth</a>. </p>
<p>This has led to overuse and is a cause for concern in many of the world’s regions because a C-section remains a major surgery with potential short and long-term <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(18)31930-5.pdf">complications</a> for the mother and the newborn.</p>
<p>But the picture is very different for women at the other end of the access spectrum. A number of factors drive the fact that there is lower C-section use in less developed countries. These range from higher fertility, lower levels of female education and fewer physicians. There is also a class divide: rural women as well as the poorest women have much lower use of C-sections than urban and better-off women. </p>
<p>Even in countries with generally low access to C-section, such as Kenya, wealthier women on average reported higher use than poor women. Women in the wealthiest quintile in developing countries, on average, reported 2.4 times greater use of C-section than women in the poorest quintile.</p>
<p>This shows that even within one country, wealthy women can access better health facilities than poor women. </p>
<h2>Drivers</h2>
<p>In countries with low access to C-section – classified as less than 10% of births – the main drivers appear to be total fertility rates, female enrolment in secondary education, and the ratio of doctors to patients. </p>
<p>On the other hand, socioeconomic development and urbanisation seem to play a significant role. Possible reasons for the discrepancy between C-section rates among wealthy and poor women in the same country could be a low overall capacity to provide C-sections, particularly in rural settings, financial barriers, and the role of the private sector in providing C-section to wealthier women in mostly urban areas.</p>
<p>Ethiopia is a good example of big discrepancies between rural and urban areas. The national C-section rate in the country was 2%, but the capital Addis Ababa reported 21.4%. </p>
<p>The countries with the highest C-section rates were Bangladesh, Brazil and US. All reported a quarter of their births were C-sections. </p>
<p>In Asia, China and India reported large in-country differences with provincial differences in China ranging from 4% to 62% and inter-state differences in India from 7% to 45%.</p>
<p>When comparing the rates in public and private healthcare facilities, the rate was 1.6 times higher in private facilities according to data from 69 low- and middle-income countries. More than 50% of births within private facilities were by C-section in 12 countries.</p>
<h2>What next</h2>
<p>There are two challenges when it comes to C-sections – the first is to ensure that all women – no matter what their economic circumstances – should have access to surgery if they land up in difficulty during child birth.</p>
<p>The second challenge is that overuse of C-sections needs to be managed. This will require making sure that financial motives aren’t the biggest driving force behind decisions to do a C-section, and that the hospitals are sufficiently resourced so they don’t go for the “cheaper” option of an elected, pre-planned operation.</p>
<p>And the growing barrage of misinformation fed to women about childbirth needs to be stopped. Women need to be helped in their efforts to claim the right to decide on the way they want to deliver their baby.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/106618/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A Lancet series shows that C-sections are performed for non-medical reasons in private health while poor women who need the surgery don’t have access.Marleen Temmerman, Director of the Centre of Excellence in Women and Child Health and Chair of the Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology (OB/GYN), Aga Khan University Ties Boerma, Professor and Canada Research Chair for Population and Global Health, University of ManitobaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.