tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/luck-2238/articlesLuck – The Conversation2024-03-25T16:35:25Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2265402024-03-25T16:35:25Z2024-03-25T16:35:25ZHoli: what the clouds of colour in the Hindu festival mean<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584050/original/file-20240325-24-zvddmg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/a-group-of-people-covered-in-colored-powder-lcjdiDVv9Bo">Dibakar Roy|Unsplash</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Holi is one of the most vibrant and fun festivals in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/rihannas-ganesh-pendant-hinduism-is-a-religion-not-a-pretty-aesthetic-155597">Hindu</a> calendar. It’s practised across India (though mainly in the north), Nepal and throughout south Asian diasporic communities. </p>
<p>The date of Holi varies in accordance with the lunar calendar but the festival often takes place in February or March. In 2024, it’s celebrated on March 25.</p>
<p>People gather together to throw and smear <em>gulal</em> or coloured powders over each other in a symbolic celebration of spring, the harvest, new life and the triumph of good over evil. As with many Hindu festivals, there is more than one narrative explaining its symbolism, but it is the visual splendour of this festival that explains its appeal. </p>
<p>My research <a href="https://www.godscollections.org/case-studies/hindu-domestic-shrines">focuses</a>, in part, on the religious and material culture of Hinduism, especially in relation to its practice in contemporary culture. One of the most uplifting aspects of Holi is the way people from all walks of life come together. It is an expression of the dynamism of Hinduism and the power of fellowship.</p>
<h2>An explosion of colour</h2>
<p>Holi conveys the exuberance and multisensory character of many Hindu festivals. The <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/magazines/panache/why-is-holi-a-big-deal-in-india-the-appeal-lies-beyond-colour-play/articleshow/108717138.cms?from=mdr#:%7E:text=The%20colors%20seen%20during%20Holi,ritual%20and%20ceremony%20%2D%20symbolize%20auspiciousness.">coloured powders</a> are typically red, yellow and green, representing the colours of spring but each also carrying more individual significance. </p>
<p>Red, which is popularly used in marriage celebrations, is the colour of fertility. Yellow is regarded as an auspicious colour. Green symbolises new beginnings. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.ijcmas.com/10-2-2021/Puja%20Basumatary,%20et%20al.pdf">Traditionally</a>, the coloured powders used in Holi festivities were <a href="https://artsandculture.google.com/story/science-behind-holi-the-festival-of-colors-national-council-of-science-museums/VQXxht4neVRtLw?hl=en">organically sourced</a> from dried flowers and herbs. Today they are synthetic. Celebrants throw or smear handfuls on each other, or use water-filled balloons or <em>pichkaris</em> (water pistols) to disperse coloured waster, adding to the carnivalesque feel of the event. </p>
<p>It is an immersive experience. Everyone comes together and merges in the magic of the crowd. Traditional hierarchies are suspended. Spontaneity and excitement take over. People talk about “playing” Holi in the powdered clouds of colour. </p>
<p>As an ancient tradition with multiple regional variations, Holi is underpinned by two prevailing narratives. The <a href="https://www.vam.ac.uk/blog/asia-department/festival-holi">first</a> is the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-love-story-of-radha-and-krishna-has-been-told-in-hinduism-for-centuries-198716">eternal divine love</a> between Lord Krishna (the incarnation of the Hindu deity, Vishnu) and the goddess Radha. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A historic Indian painting." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584079/original/file-20240325-30-59owv8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584079/original/file-20240325-30-59owv8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584079/original/file-20240325-30-59owv8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584079/original/file-20240325-30-59owv8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584079/original/file-20240325-30-59owv8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=605&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584079/original/file-20240325-30-59owv8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=605&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584079/original/file-20240325-30-59owv8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=605&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A watercolour depicting Krishna and Radha celebrating Holi from 1750.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Krishna_and_Radha_Celebrating_the_Holi_Festival_with_Companions_LACMA_M.81.280.2.jpg">LACMA|Wikimedia</a></span>
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<p>The other tells of the demon king <a href="https://encyclopedia.pub/entry/34653">Hiranyakashipu’s</a> attempt to force his subjects to worship him. When his son, Prahlad, persisted in worshipping Lord Vishnu instead, Hiranyakashipu instructed his sister, Holika, to kill Prahlad. </p>
<p>Holika, who was invulnerable to fire, made the boy sit on her lap, on a pyre. Onlookers were astonished to see, however, that Prahlad’s devotion to Lord Vishnu saved him while Holika <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/religion/festivals/history-of-holi-5-fascinating-legends-behind-holi-and-holika-dahan/articleshow/98439636.cms">burned to death</a>. </p>
<p>The event of playing with colour, now synonymous with Holi, is actually part of a larger series of rituals. The first night of festival, known as <a href="https://www.freepressjournal.in/bhopal/bhopal-city-immerses-in-holika-dahan-celebrations">Holika Dahan</a>, involves lighting bonfires and throwing on food such as grains. As a re-enactment of the death of the mythical demoness Holika, this ritual marks the end of winter and the overthrow of evil. </p>
<p>The next day, Rangwali Holi, sees people venturing out on to the streets to exchange colour. In the final part of this festival, in the evening, after washing off the colours and donning clean clothes, people gather with family and friends to eat traditional dishes including <em>gujiya</em> (a North Indian sweet fried dumpling).</p>
<p>Like <a href="https://theconversation.com/diwali-a-celebration-of-the-goddess-lakshmi-and-her-promise-of-prosperity-and-good-fortune-191992">Diwali</a> (the “festival of lights” as it is often known) and the Hindu new year, Holi is celebrated by the Hindu diaspora in the UK, the US, <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/07256860701759956">Fiji</a>, <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/324539407_Hinduism_in_Mauritius">Mauritius</a> and beyond. Temple organisations host Holi in their venues. Unlike <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/44713556?mag=gender-and-caste-at-holi">in India</a> where festivities are public and widespread, diasporic celebrations are more regulated to specific spaces and times. </p>
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<img alt="A crowd under a sky of colours." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584055/original/file-20240325-22-au9246.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584055/original/file-20240325-22-au9246.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584055/original/file-20240325-22-au9246.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584055/original/file-20240325-22-au9246.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584055/original/file-20240325-22-au9246.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584055/original/file-20240325-22-au9246.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584055/original/file-20240325-22-au9246.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A Holi festival in Spanish Fork, Utah.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/people-gathering-on-a-concert-LtE6W_JVTGc">John Thomas|Unsplash</a></span>
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<p>Parties for Holi are not uncommon. You can routinely find events organised each year on platforms such as <a href="https://www.eventbrite.com/d/united-kingdom--london/holi-festival/">Eventbrite</a> where ticket sales often include the prior purchase of <a href="https://www.ministryofcolours.co.uk/">non-toxic powders</a>. </p>
<p>Some of these events are targeted at south Asian communities. They include renactments of plays, dance performances and further heritage elements. </p>
<p>Others capitalise on the spirit of revelry embodied by commercially driven <a href="https://time.com/5799354/what-is-holi/">colour marathons</a>. These have elicited claims of <a href="https://theconversation.com/diwali-in-the-uk-how-commodifying-minority-religions-can-risk-cultural-appropriation-192974">cultural appropriation</a> for their largely secular tone.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226540/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rina Arya does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Holi is a symbolic celebration of spring, the harvest, new life and the triumph of good over evil.Rina Arya, Professor of Critical and Cultural Theory and Head of the School of the Arts, University of HullLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1984392023-03-02T16:55:40Z2023-03-02T16:55:40ZLucky girl syndrome: the potential dark side of TikTok’s extreme positive thinking trend<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511426/original/file-20230221-22-qlyu4j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6192%2C4115&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">'Lucky girl syndrome' is similar to the 'law of attraction'.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/happy-young-woman-drinking-cup-tea-2042836916">Ground Picture/ Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>If you’re looking for ways to bring more positive changes into your life, TikTok recommends jumping on the “lucky girl syndrome” trend. The hashtag links countless videos, all claiming this new form of positive thinking can help you achieve your goals.</p>
<p>If you haven’t already come across one of these videos, many of them involve young women declaring themselves to be “so lucky” – using affirmations such as: “I am so lucky, everything my heart desires will come to me.” </p>
<p>Many of the videos give examples of recent fortunate events that have occurred on the back of using these positive affirmations: they may have received an unexpected windfall of money, got a golden job opportunity or enjoyed the holiday of a lifetime. But while this trend may have started with the best of intentions, it could actually do more harm than good.</p>
<p>Lucky girl syndrome is just the latest interpretation of the “<a href="https://www.bustle.com/life/what-is-the-law-of-assumption-manifestation-method-technique">law of assumption</a>”, which proposes that when we act as though what we want is already our reality – and believe it – then we are rewarded with the things we most desire in life. </p>
<p>The law of assumption is quite similar to the popular <a href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/the-law-of-attraction-exp_b_8430270">law of attraction</a>“ which emphasises the power of thoughts and beliefs – so what you believe becomes your reality. So if I believe that I’m successful and behave as a successful person, then I will be successful. </p>
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<img alt="Quarter life, a series by The Conversation" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451343/original/file-20220310-13-1bj6csd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451343/original/file-20220310-13-1bj6csd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451343/original/file-20220310-13-1bj6csd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451343/original/file-20220310-13-1bj6csd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451343/original/file-20220310-13-1bj6csd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451343/original/file-20220310-13-1bj6csd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451343/original/file-20220310-13-1bj6csd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em><strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/quarter-life-117947?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=UK+YP2022&utm_content=InArticleTop">This article is part of Quarter Life</a></strong>, a series about issues affecting those of us in our twenties and thirties. From the challenges of beginning a career and taking care of our mental health, to the excitement of starting a family, adopting a pet or just making friends as an adult. The articles in this series explore the questions and bring answers as we navigate this turbulent period of life.</em></p>
<p><em>You may be interested in:</em></p>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/de-influencing-how-online-beauty-gurus-get-followers-to-trust-them-by-posting-negative-reviews-199223?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=UK+YP2022&utm_content=InArticleTop">De-influencing: how online beauty gurus get followers to trust them by posting negative reviews</a></em></p>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/tiktok-mascara-trend-young-people-have-used-codes-to-talk-about-sex-for-generations-199220?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=UK+YP2022&utm_content=InArticleTop">TikTok ‘mascara’ trend: young people have used codes to talk about sex for generations</a></em></p>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/a-video-of-you-goes-viral-without-your-consent-what-does-the-law-say-193398?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=UK+YP2022&utm_content=InArticleTop">A video of you goes viral without your consent – what does the law say?</a></em></p>
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<p>This type of "you-are-what-you-think” ideology is very persuasive and popular because it’s reminiscent of ancient wisdom. For example, <a href="https://philpapers.org/archive/DIATPF.pdf">Stoic philosophy</a> suggests that the way we think about our situation determines our psychological state, not the situation itself. But unlike lucky girl manifesting, stoic philosophy also advocated for recognising that sometimes things don’t go our way – and that this is an opportunity in itself to learn and grow. </p>
<p>Thinking your way to success sounds simple and its simplicity is appealing. But this is also the flaw of lucky girl syndrome. Although research has found that successful people do have a positive mindset, it’s not only their mindset that sets them apart. </p>
<p>For instance, a study of successful women leaders found <a href="https://www.proquest.com/docview/2157963517?pq-origsite=gscholar&fromopenview=true">they also work very hard</a>, often sacrificing more pleasurable pastimes in favour of pursuing their goal. They also invest in relationships with others and prioritise learning and further education. So it isn’t just luck that gets them to where they are. </p>
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<img alt="A wall of blue sticky notes with frowns on it. In the centre is an orange sticky note with a smiley face on it." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511429/original/file-20230221-2779-dtjrpf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511429/original/file-20230221-2779-dtjrpf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511429/original/file-20230221-2779-dtjrpf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511429/original/file-20230221-2779-dtjrpf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511429/original/file-20230221-2779-dtjrpf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511429/original/file-20230221-2779-dtjrpf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511429/original/file-20230221-2779-dtjrpf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">There may be some benefit to believeing you’re a ‘lucky girl’.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/positive-attitude-happy-concept-hand-drawn-1092362624">ntkris/ Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>Yet on the other hand, research does show that believing you’re a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0191886908002626?casa_token=WYZIFWdt5M8AAAAA:wSuFXXw7nuCDHiHLQQPunx8cE9yBb7erM-7qGEQmf0XXa-Iabm9252Vdey5lE7YBImPNi5o">lucky person</a> is associated with a more positive state of mind and a greater tendency for seeking out opportunities. People who consider themselves lucky are more likely to approach new situations with confidence and a sense of control and optimism. </p>
<p>This study also suggested that this sense of being lucky promotes positive goal-oriented behaviour, such as a commitment to working towards your desired future.</p>
<h2>Misplaced optimism</h2>
<p>There is perhaps more of a dark side to lucky girl syndrome, which is hinted at in its name – seeing as it’s called a syndrome not an approach, and particularly because it’s aimed at women. Most videos on the topic talk purely of manifesting through thinking – there isn’t much emphasis on action. </p>
<p>They suggest that what you put out to the universe is what you will get in return. So if you think you’re poor or unsuccessful, this is what you’ll get back. Obviously this is quite an unhelpful message, which likely won’t do much for the self esteem of people who don’t feel particularly lucky – let alone those facing significant hardship.</p>
<p>Future daydreaming, fantasy and visualisation is a normal and healthy thing we all do. According to research, we think about our futures <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/manuscript/2015-12030-001.pdf">twice as much</a> as we think about our past. <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?hl=en&lr=&id=Fgs5DwAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PP1&dq=thinking+affects+behavior&ots=FKPPz4vO-G&sig=C0YrdB3UzvN2JjYYkoN3J6WkZgU#v=onepage&q=thinking%20affects%20behavior&f=false">Thinking about our future</a> allows us to explore and visualise all sorts of possibilities, predict our future based on our past experiences and plan strategies to meet our goals. </p>
<p>No doubt we can all benefit from creating a more positive, healthy mindset that will help us create a better future for ourselves. </p>
<p>But instead of asking the universe for more wealth, success and power, perhaps we should ask for more compassion, kindness and support from ourselves and for each other. Focusing on these human qualities is associated with <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?hl=en&lr=&id=xGH0DAAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PA189&dq=benefits+of+compassion+and+kindness&ots=eKnTeUisHP&sig=yhKx0BhtpuNyA6JQY5rheO4goXc&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=benefits%20of%20compassion%20and%20kindness&f=false">greater life satisfaction</a> than striving purely for material gain. </p>
<p>Instead of “lucky girl syndrome”, if you want to change your mindset and be more positive, why not try <a href="https://positivepsychology.com/loving-kindness-meditation/">loving kindness meditation</a>. </p>
<p>This form of meditation encourages you to focus on compassion towards yourself, others and the world. Studies have found that engaging in <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/doiLanding?doi=10.1037%2Fa0013262">compassion-focused meditation</a> increases positive emotions, social connectedness and self awareness. </p>
<p>Studies have also found that connecting with others and sharing our hopes for the future can lead to <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Catrin-Finkenauer/publication/223863861_Regulatory_focus_and_the_Michelangelo_Phenomenon_How_close_partners_promote_one_another's_ideal_selves/links/5770089e08ae621947487a1a/Regulatory-focus-and-the-Michelangelo-Phenomenon-How-close-partners-promote-one-anothers-ideal-selves.pdf">better goal attainment and personal success</a>. So instead of sitting alone manifesting, get out there and share your dreams with others.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/198439/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lowri Dowthwaite-Walsh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>‘Lucky girl syndrome’ focuses on using positive affirmations to achieve material benefit.Lowri Dowthwaite-Walsh, Senior Lecturer in Psychological Interventions, University of Central LancashireLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1936972022-11-09T13:38:32Z2022-11-09T13:38:32ZWhy magical thinking is so widespread – a look at the psychological roots of common superstitions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494147/original/file-20221108-20-jowi62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=68%2C0%2C5623%2C3797&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Lucky charms help us feel safer in an uncertain world.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/inside-of-a-taxi-royalty-free-image/80486695?phrase=superstition%20mirror&adppopup=true">Image Source via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Growing up in Greece, I spent my summers at my grandparents’ home in a small coastal village in the region of Chalkidiki. It was warm and sunny, and I passed most of my time playing in the streets with my cousins. But occasionally, the summer storms brought torrential rain. You could see them coming from far away, with black clouds looming over the horizon, lit up by lightning.</p>
<p>As I rushed home, I was intrigued to see my grandparents prepare for the thunderstorm. Grandma would cover a large mirror on the living room wall with a dark cloth and throw a blanket over the TV. Meanwhile, Grandpa would climb a ladder to remove the light bulb over the patio door. Then they switched off all the lights in the house and waited the storm out.</p>
<p>I never understood why they did all this. When I asked, they said that light attracts lightning. At least that was what people said, so better to be on the safe side.</p>
<p>Where do these kinds of beliefs come from?</p>
<p>My fascination with <a href="https://www.littlebrownspark.com/titles/dimitris-xygalatas/ritual/9780316462402/">seemingly bizarre cultural beliefs and practices</a> eventually led me to become an anthropologist. I have come across similar superstitions around the world, and although one may marvel at their variety, they share some common features.</p>
<h2>The principles of magical thinking</h2>
<p>At the core of most superstitions are certain intuitive notions about how the world works. Early anthropologists described these intuitions in terms of principles such as “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/2153599X.2021.2006294">similarity” and “contagion</a>.” </p>
<p>According to the principle of similarity, things that look alike may share some deeper connection, just as the members of a family tend to resemble each other both in appearance and in other traits. Of course, this is not always the case. But this inference feels natural, so we often abuse it.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494150/original/file-20221108-16-od04xm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An illustration of a black cat, a broken mirror and the words, Friday the 13th." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494150/original/file-20221108-16-od04xm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494150/original/file-20221108-16-od04xm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494150/original/file-20221108-16-od04xm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494150/original/file-20221108-16-od04xm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494150/original/file-20221108-16-od04xm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494150/original/file-20221108-16-od04xm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494150/original/file-20221108-16-od04xm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">At the core of most superstitions are intuitive notions about how the world works.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/illustration/friday-the-13th-black-cat-royalty-free-illustration/1285396482?phrase=superstition%20broken%20mirror&adppopup=true">Andry Djumantara/ iStock / Getty Images Plus</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Case in point: The light reflected on the surface of a mirror is not related to the light resulting from the electrical discharges produced <a href="https://www.sciencelearn.org.nz/resources/239-lightning-explained">during a thunderstorm</a>. But because they both seem to give off light, a connection between the two was plausible enough to become <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=1Mc4qPiICvcC&pg=PT1100&lpg=PT1100&dq=mirrors+%22attract+lightning%22+superstition&source=bl&ots=LVd49J3fHl&sig=ACfU3U3sbqS-vHXpUTiXa-ytwQ9HJ_qShg&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiPlYGxgp_7AhXEkokEHTcFAVg4FBDoAXoECD8QAw#v=onepage&q=mirrors%20%22attract%20lightning%22%20superstition&f=false">folk wisdom</a> in many parts of the world. Likewise, because our reflection on the mirror closely resembles our own image, many cultures hold that breaking a mirror brings bad luck, as if damage to that reflection would also mean <a href="http://www.mirrorhistory.com/mirror-facts/broken-mirror/">damage to ourselves</a>.</p>
<p>The principle of contagion is based on the idea that things have internal properties that can be <a href="https://theconversation.com/demolishing-schools-after-a-mass-shooting-reflects-humans-deep-rooted-desire-for-purification-rituals-184826">transmitted through contact</a>. The heat of a fire is transferred to anything it touches, and some illnesses can spread from one organism to another. Whether consciously or unconsciously, people in all cultures often expect that other kinds of essences can also be transferred through contact. </p>
<p>For example, people often believe that certain essences can “rub off” on someone, which is why casino players sometimes touch someone who is on a winning streak. It is also why, in 2014, a statue of Juliet, the Shakespearean character who fell madly in love with Romeo, <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/arts/veronas-juliet-statue-damaged-beyond-repair-love-seeking-tourists">had to be replaced</a> due to excessive wear caused by visitors touching it to find love.</p>
<h2>A search for patterns</h2>
<p>These kinds of superstitions betray something more general about the way people think. To make sense of our world, we look for patterns in nature. When two things occur at around the same time, they may be related. For instance, black clouds are associated with rain.</p>
<p>But the world is far too complex. Most of the time, <a href="https://www.statology.org/correlation-does-not-imply-causation-examples/">correlation does not mean causation</a>, although it may feel like it does. </p>
<p>If you wear a new shirt to the stadium and your team wins, you might wear it again. If another victory comes, you begin to see a pattern. This now becomes your lucky shirt. In reality, myriad other things have changed since the last game, but you do not have access to all those things. What you know for sure is that you wore the lucky shirt, and the result was favorable.</p>
<h2>Superstitions are comforting</h2>
<p>People really want their lucky charms to work. So when they don’t, we are less motivated to remember them, or we may attribute our luck to some other factor. If their team loses, they might blame the referee. But when their team wins, they are <a href="https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/science-choice/201504/what-is-confirmation-bias">more likely to notice the lucky shirt</a>, and more likely to declare to others that it worked, which helps spread the idea.</p>
<p>As a social species, so much of what we know about the world comes from common wisdom. It would therefore seem safe to assume that if other people believe in the utility of a particular action, there might be something to it. If people around you say you should not eat those mushrooms, it’s probably a good idea to avoid them. </p>
<p>This “better safe than sorry” strategy is one of the main reasons superstitions are so widespread. Another reason is that they simply feel good. </p>
<p>Research shows that rituals and superstitions <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-people-need-rituals-especially-in-times-of-uncertainty-134321">spike during times of uncertainty</a>, and performing them can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2019.0431">help reduce anxiety</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0021-9029.2006.00116.x">boost performance</a>. When people feel powerless, turning to familiar actions provides a sense of control, which, even if illusory, can still be comforting.</p>
<p>Thanks to these psychological effects, superstitions have been around for ages, and will likely be around for ages to come.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193697/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dimitris Xygalatas does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>An anthropologist explains why we all have some irrational beliefs and the reason they give us comfort.Dimitris Xygalatas, Associate Professor of Anthropology and Psychological Sciences, University of ConnecticutLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1914772022-10-21T12:38:29Z2022-10-21T12:38:29ZWhy is 13 considered unlucky? Explaining the power of its bad reputation<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/490737/original/file-20221019-20-g6fx2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=44%2C0%2C2072%2C1414&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Many elevators do not have a floor numbered 13 because of common superstitions about the number.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/close-up-of-a-businessman-using-hotel-elevator-royalty-free-image/1401402377?phrase=elevator&adppopup=true">Luis Alvarez/DigitalVision via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Would you think it weird if I refused to travel on Sundays that fall on the 22nd day of the month?</p>
<p>How about if I lobbied the homeowner association in my high-rise condo to skip the 22nd floor, jumping from the 21st to 23rd?</p>
<p>It’s highly unusual <a href="https://theconversation.com/happy-twosday-why-numbers-like-2-22-22-have-been-too-fascinating-for-over-2-000-years-176093">to fear 22</a> – so, yes, it would be appropriate to see me as a bit odd. But what if, in just my country alone, more than 40 million people shared the same baseless aversion?</p>
<p>That’s <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/26887/thirteen-percent-americans-bothered-stay-hotels-13th-floor.aspx">how many Americans</a> admit it would bother them to stay on one particular floor in high-rise hotels: the 13th.</p>
<p>According to the Otis Elevator Co., for every building with a floor numbered “13,” six other buildings <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130430013751/http:/realtytimes.com/rtpages/20020913_13thfloor.htm">pretend to not have one</a>, skipping right to 14.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.postandcourier.com/kingstree/community-news/some-scared-others-amused-by-friday-the-13th/article_50e1a1d2-cd6b-11ec-9c50-3b6b3897ea36.html">Many Westerners</a> <a href="https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-friday-the-13th-affects-peoples-behaviour">alter their behaviors</a> on <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1697765/pdf/bmj00052-0013.pdf">Friday the 13th</a>. Of course bad things <a href="https://www.readersdigest.ca/culture/friday-the-13th-history/">do sometimes happen</a> on that date, but there’s no evidence they do so disproportionately.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=ZEQu09wAAAAJ&hl=en">a sociologist</a> specializing in social psychology and group processes, I’m not so interested in individual fears and obsessions. What fascinates me is when millions of people share the same misconception to the extent that it affects behavior on a broad scale. Such is the power of 13. </p>
<h2>Origins of the superstition</h2>
<p>The source of 13’s bad reputation – “triskaidekaphobia” – is murky and speculative. The historical explanation may be as simple as its chance juxtaposition with lucky 12. <a href="https://centerforinquiry.org/blog/authors/nickell-joe/">Joe Nickell</a> investigates paranormal claims for the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry, a nonprofit that scientifically examines controversial and extraordinary claims. He points out that 12 often <a href="https://centerforinquiry.org/press_releases/freaking_out_over_friday_the_13th_skeptics_say_relax/">represents “completeness”</a>: the number of months in the year, gods on Olympus, signs of the zodiac and apostles of Jesus. Thirteen contrasts with this sense of goodness and perfection. </p>
<p>The number 13 may be associated with some <a href="https://www.livescience.com/46284-origins-unlucky-friday-the-13th.html">famous but undesirable dinner guests</a>. In Norse mythology, the god Loki was 13th to arrive at a feast in Valhalla, where he tricked another attendee into killing the god Baldur. In Christianity, Judas – the apostle who betrayed Jesus – was the 13th guest at the Last Supper. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A painting shows thirteen men seated on one side of a long table, wearing colored robes." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/490678/original/file-20221019-22-4f7v7k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/490678/original/file-20221019-22-4f7v7k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=303&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490678/original/file-20221019-22-4f7v7k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=303&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490678/original/file-20221019-22-4f7v7k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=303&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490678/original/file-20221019-22-4f7v7k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490678/original/file-20221019-22-4f7v7k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490678/original/file-20221019-22-4f7v7k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">‘The Last Supper,’ a 15th-century mural painting in Milan created by Leonardo da Vinci.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-last-supper-15th-century-mural-painting-in-milan-news-photo/113493718?phrase=last%20supper%20da%20vinci&adppopup=true">Universal History Archive/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But the truth is, sociocultural processes can associate bad luck with any number. When the conditions are favorable, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-62585-9#:%7E:text=In%20addition%2C%20rumor%20spreading%20is,social%20environments%20in%20rumor%20spreading.">a rumor</a> or superstition generates its own social reality, snowballing like an urban legend as it rolls down the hill of time. </p>
<p>In Japan, <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/culture/article/130913-friday-luck-lucky-superstition-13">9 is unlucky</a>, probably because it sounds similar to the Japanese word for “suffering.” <a href="https://www.thelocal.it/20200717/thirteen-of-italys-strangest-superstitions-bad-luck-fate-belief-traditions/">In Italy</a>, it’s 17. In China, 4 sounds like “death” and is more actively avoided in everyday life than 13 is in Western culture – including a willingness to <a href="https://doi.org/10.5204/mcj.2604">pay higher fees </a> to avoid it in cellphone numbers. And though 666 is considered lucky in China, many Christians around the world associate it with an evil beast described in the biblical Book of Revelation. There is even a word for an intense fear of 666: <a href="https://www.verywellmind.com/hexakosioihexekontahexaphobia-2671858">hexakosioihexekontahexaphobia</a>.</p>
<h2>Social and psychological explanations</h2>
<p>There are <a href="https://www.verywellmind.com/list-of-phobias-2795453">many kinds</a> of specific <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK519704/table/ch3.t11/">phobias</a>, and people hold them for a variety of psychological reasons. They can arise from direct negative experiences – fearing bees after being stung by one, for example. Other <a href="https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/specific-phobias/symptoms-causes/syc-20355156#:%7E:text=Many%20phobias%20develop%20as%20a,to%20genetics%20or%20learned%20behavior.">risk factors</a> for developing a phobia include being very young, having relatives with phobias, having a more sensitive personality and being exposed to others with phobias.</p>
<p>Part of 13’s reputation may be connected to a feeling of unfamiliarity, or “<a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0247037#sec008">felt sense of anomaly</a>,” as it is called in the psychological literature. In everyday life, 13 is less common than 12. There’s no 13th month, 13-inch ruler, or 13 o'clock. By itself a sense of unfamiliarity won’t cause a phobia, but <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1111/1467-8721.00154">psychological research</a> shows that we favor what is familiar and disfavor what is not. This makes it easier to associate 13 with negative attributes.</p>
<p>People also may assign dark attributes to 13 for the same reason that many believe in “full moon effects.” Beliefs that the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1503/cmaj.051119">full moon</a> influences mental health, crime rates, accidents and other human calamities have been thoroughly debunked. Still, when people are looking to <a href="http://www.sakkyndig.com/psykologi/artvit/nickerson1998.pdf">confirm their beliefs</a>, they are prone to infer connections between unrelated factors. For example, having a car accident during a full moon, or on a Friday the 13th, makes the event seem all the more memorable and significant. Once locked in, such beliefs are <a href="https://sk.sagepub.com/reference/socialpsychology/n62.xml#:%7E:text=Belief%20perseverance%20is%20the%20tendency,the%20basis%20of%20that%20belief.">very hard to shake</a>.</p>
<p>Then there are the potent effects of social influences. It takes a village – or Twitter – to make fears coalesce around a particular harmless number. The emergence of any superstition in a social group – fear of 13, walking under ladders, not stepping on a crack, knocking on wood, etc. – is not unlike the rise of a “<a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/The_Selfish_Gene/ekonDAAAQBAJ?hl=en">meme</a>.” Although now the term most often refers to widely shared online images, it was <a href="https://www.wired.co.uk/article/richard-dawkins-memes">first introduced</a> by biologist <a href="https://richarddawkins.net/">Richard Dawkins</a> to help describe how an idea, innovation, fashion or other bit of information can diffuse through a population. A meme, in his definition, is similar to a piece of genetic code: It reproduces itself as it is communicated among people, with the potential to mutate into alternative versions of itself. </p>
<p>The 13 meme is a simple bit of information associated with bad luck. It resonates with people for reasons given above, and then spreads throughout the culture. Once acquired, this piece of pseudo-knowledge gives believers a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1027/1618-3169/a000225">sense of control</a> over the evils associated with it.</p>
<h2>False beliefs, true consequences</h2>
<p>Groups concerned with public relations seem to feel the need to kowtow to popular superstitions. Perhaps owing to the near-tragic <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/apollo/missions/apollo13.html">Apollo 13 mission</a>, NASA stopped sequentially numbering space shuttle missions, dubbing <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/feature/behind-the-space-shuttle-mission-numbering-system">the 13th shuttle flight</a> STS-41-G. In Belgium, complaints from superstitious passengers led Brussels Airlines to revamp <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/21/business/worldbusiness/21iht-logo.4676788.html">its logo</a> in 2006. It had been a “b”-like image made of 13 dots. The airline added a 14th. Like many other airlines, its planes’ row numbering <a href="https://simpleflying.com/row-13-on-planes/#:%7E:text=There%20is%20a%20long%2Dheld,based%20on%20a%20superstitious%20belief.">skips 13</a>.</p>
<p>Because superstitious beliefs are inherently false, they are as likely to do harm as good – consider <a href="https://quackwatch.org/">health frauds</a>, for example. I’d like to believe influential organizations – perhaps even elevator companies – would do better to warn the public about the dangers of clinging to false beliefs than to continue legitimizing them.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/191477/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Barry Markovsky does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A sociologist unpacks how common superstitions like fear of 13 can gain steam.Barry Markovsky, Distinguished Professor Emeritus of Sociology, University of South CarolinaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1837962022-06-07T16:03:56Z2022-06-07T16:03:56ZRussian roulette in Ukraine: Is Vladimir Putin powerful, or just lucky?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467305/original/file-20220606-16-1txd0t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C35%2C6000%2C3943&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Russian President Vladimir Putin listens to Russia's commissioner for entrepreneurs' rights during a meeting in the Kremlin in Moscow on May 26, 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Mikhail Metzel, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/russian-roulette-in-ukraine--is-vladimir-putin-powerful--or-just-lucky" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Has Vladimir Putin amassed more power than anyone else in the world? <em>Forbes</em> magazine picked him as the world’s most powerful person <a href="https://time.com/4099785/putin-forbes-most-powerful-people/">three years</a> in a row (from 2013 to 2015). A <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2017/03/13/opinions/putin-most-powerful-man-world-zakaria/index.html">2018 CNN documentary</a> portrayed him in the same way.</p>
<p>But the war in Ukraine that’s gone awry for Russia since its very start calls for a reassessment of Putin’s might. <em>Time</em> magazine’s readers did not include his name in <a href="https://time.com/6177642/2022-time100-reader-poll-winner-volodymyr-zelensky/">top five most influential people of 2022</a>. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy came first.</p>
<p>A powerful person is able “to carry out his own will despite resistance,” said German sociologist <a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520280021/economy-and-society">Max Weber</a> in the 1920s. Keith Dowding, a British political philosopher, compares a powerful person to a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/2158379X.2017.1381449">lucky one</a>. The latter gets what he wants “without trying” and without facing resistance. </p>
<p>The war waged by Russia against Ukraine helps clearly differentiate power from luck, which has practical consequences.</p>
<h2>Card game</h2>
<p>Differences between power and luck can be easily perceived in a card game. A player can win either because he has trump cards or because he uses a sophisticated strategy regardless of the cards. In the first case, the player is lucky. In the second case, he is powerful.</p>
<p>The card game metaphor is emblematic of Russian culture. Fyodor Dostoevsky devoted his novel <a href="https://www.gutenberg.org/files/2197/2197-h/2197-h.htm"><em>The Gambler</em></a> to the card player’s psychology. <a href="https://www.upress.umn.edu/book-division/books/problems-of-dostoevskyas-poetics">Mikhail Bakhtin, a Russian philosopher and an insightful interpreter of Dostoevsky, explains</a> that when much is at stake in a card game, the player “feels himself on the threshold.” Good luck makes everything possible for him. Bad luck leads him to lose everything. </p>
<p>Some card games, the game of roulette or, in the extreme case, <a href="https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/russian-roulette">Russian roulette</a>, are pure games of chance. In the others, a good memory and a well thought out strategy help win.</p>
<h2>Putin’s luck</h2>
<p>Ukraine is Putin’s ultimate game, one that put his power to the test. This explains his intention to win at any price. At the start of the war, Putin seemed to have all trump cards in his hands.</p>
<p>He had, at his disposal, the military manpower <a href="https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing.php">deemed to be the second most potent</a> in the world. He inherited from the Soviet Union the status of a nuclear superpower, and expanded its arsenal of nuclear weapons.</p>
<p>Russia’s possession of nuclear weapons, in fact, gives it a crucial advantage. It nullifies the effect of wrong moves to a significant extent. It comes as no surprise that Putin put Russia’s nuclear force <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/27/vladimir-putin-puts-russia-nuclear-deterrence-forces-on-high-alert-ukraine">on high alert</a> as soon as the war in Ukraine started to run into problems.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Young Navy school cadets march. Sheets of paper with the letter Z, a symbol of the Russian military, displayed in windows in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467308/original/file-20220606-22-kz5bj8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467308/original/file-20220606-22-kz5bj8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467308/original/file-20220606-22-kz5bj8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467308/original/file-20220606-22-kz5bj8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467308/original/file-20220606-22-kz5bj8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467308/original/file-20220606-22-kz5bj8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467308/original/file-20220606-22-kz5bj8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Navy school cadets march during celebrations marking the 318th anniversary of the city of Kronstadt, outside St. Petersburg, Russia, on May 21, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Dmitri Lovetsky)</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Putin also inherited a natural resources bounty, a big part of Russia’s influence. Europe has traditionally depended on energy supplies from Russia and its predecessor, the Soviet Union. Europe continued to import oil and gas from the Soviet Union even as it officially condemned <a href="https://doi.org/10.2747/1539-7216.50.1.28">the Russian invasion of Afghanistan</a> four decades ago.</p>
<p><a href="https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2833/975418">In 2019</a>, 41.3 per cent of all European imports of natural gas, 26.9 per cent of all European imports of crude oil and 46.8 per cent of all European imports of hard coal came from Russia.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/30/energy/eu-russian-oil/index.html">contemplated European ban on Russian oil imports</a> aims to lessen this dependence. But the prohibition of the purchase, import or transfer of crude oil and certain petroleum products from Russia has <a href="https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2022/06/03/russia-s-aggression-against-ukraine-eu-adopts-sixth-package-of-sanctions/">multiple exemptions</a>, limiting its effectiveness. Europe is not ready for a ban on Russian natural gas either.</p>
<p>But Russia’s initial advantages had to be used wisely to win the war. Without a well-conceived strategy and tactics, strong military and abundant natural resources alone won’t beat an opponent. A careless player is unable to prevail, even if he has trump cards in his hand. </p>
<h2>Ukraine’s power</h2>
<p>Ukraine represents an opposite situation in many respects. In 1994, Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons in exchange for “<a href="https://treaties.un.org/Pages/showDetails.aspx?objid=0800000280401fbb">security assurances</a>.” But those assurances turned out not to be binding. Russia, <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/what-is-the-budapest-memorandum-and-how-does-it-impact-the-current-crisis-in-ukraine-1.5804369">the other signatory of the Budapest Memorandum</a> — an agreement that ostensibly assured Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity from Russia — chose to violate it and use military force against Ukraine.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-what-is-the-budapest-memorandum-and-why-has-russias-invasion-torn-it-up-178184">Ukraine war: what is the Budapest Memorandum and why has Russia's invasion torn it up?</a>
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<p>Ukraine had no other option but to rely on its less than impressive arsenal of conventional weapons, especially in the early stages of the invasion. In 2021, Ukraine’s military strength was ranked <a href="https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing.php">22nd in the world</a>, well behind Russia’s. Until <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/04/26/us-ukraine-allies-weapons/">defence talks</a> in Germany in late April among 40 countries supporting Ukraine, Ukrainians did not have access to western heavy weaponry.</p>
<p>Ukraine has scant natural resources. <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS">Total natural resources rents represented just 1.8 per cent of its GDP in 2019</a>. Rents extracted from natural resources — oil and gas being the prime example — represent 13.1 per cent of Russia’s GDP.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man in sunglasses carries a Ukrainian flag and a sign that reads No to Russian Oil and Gas." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467309/original/file-20220606-14-n86csd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467309/original/file-20220606-14-n86csd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467309/original/file-20220606-14-n86csd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467309/original/file-20220606-14-n86csd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467309/original/file-20220606-14-n86csd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467309/original/file-20220606-14-n86csd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467309/original/file-20220606-14-n86csd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Ukrainian demonstrators demand an embargo on Russian oil during a protest in front of European Union institutions prior to a meeting of EU leaders to discuss Ukraine, energy and food security in Brussels on May 30, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Olivier Matthys)</span></span>
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<h2>Underestimating the will to fight</h2>
<p>When assessing Ukraine’s chances to contain Russia’s invasion, the American intelligence community used a resource-based approach that deemed Ukrainians had <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/13/politics/us-intelligence-review-ukraine/index.html">little hope</a> of winning. The will to fight — a key ingredient of power as opposed to luck — was overlooked.</p>
<p>The fact that Russia’s war has not been unfolding as Putin expected is indicative of a series of strategic and tactical errors he has made. Probably for the first time since his ascension to power 1999, he’s likely felt at times like a gambler on the threshold of losing everything.</p>
<p>At the end of the day, he has more in common with <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2022-03-10/putin-gambler">Dostoevsky’s gambler</a> than with a calculating chess player from <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/119457/the-luzhin-defense-by-vladimir-nabokov/"><em>The Luzhin Defense</em></a>, a novel by another famous Russian writer, Vladimir Nabokov.</p>
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<img alt="A balding man is seen with a giant map of the world behind him." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467312/original/file-20220606-13234-gis9sl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467312/original/file-20220606-13234-gis9sl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467312/original/file-20220606-13234-gis9sl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467312/original/file-20220606-13234-gis9sl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467312/original/file-20220606-13234-gis9sl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467312/original/file-20220606-13234-gis9sl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467312/original/file-20220606-13234-gis9sl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Putin speaks during an interview with the Russia-1 TV channel in the Black Sea resort of Sochi, Russia, on June 3, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Mikhail Klimentyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)</span></span>
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<p>To break Ukrainian defences, Putin needed to complement luck with power. The control of resources no longer suffices. Upon closer inspection, Putin’s ability to get what he wants has been due more to structural and dispositional factors — they underpin his “luck” — than to his qualities as a strategist. True power is impossible without strategy. </p>
<p>Ukraine’s formidable resistance to Russia’s military and economic might, on the other hand, has been a manifestation of its power. It led U.S. intelligence community to conduct an <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/u-s-intelligence-agencies-review-what-they-got-wrong-on-russias-invasion-of-ukraine">internal review</a> into how it assesses the fighting power of foreign militaries by factoring the will to fight into predictions.</p>
<p>Russia’s war in Ukraine suggests that Zelenskyy and the people of Ukraine may be more powerful than Putin. Resistance makes a difference. To ultimately confirm their power, however, the Ukrainians need to go beyond resistance. They need to win the war.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183796/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anton Oleinik does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Russia’s war in Ukraine calls for drawing a line between power and luck. Putin, who was widely considered among the most powerful people in the world, may have been simply lucky.Anton Oleinik, Professor of Sociology, Memorial University of NewfoundlandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1790822022-03-22T12:16:35Z2022-03-22T12:16:35ZThe ‘hot hand’ is a real basketball phenomenon – but only some players have the ability to go on these basket-making streaks<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/453118/original/file-20220318-19-gfjkk4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=233%2C0%2C5748%2C3161&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Kevin Durant is one of the NBA players who shows the ability to go on hot streaks.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/KnicksNetsBasketball/e57ce0bc5e624b1ea17f1892fd47d63b/photo?Query=kevin%20durant&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=now-14d&totalCount=59&currentItemNo=2">AP Photo/Seth Wenig</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>March Madness is here, and basketball fans are making predictions: Who will be the <a href="https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2021-03-01/11-greatest-march-madness-cinderella-stories">Cinderella story of the college tournament</a>? Which teams will make a run to the Final Four? And of course, which player is going to get “hot” and carry their team to a championship?</p>
<p>To say a player is “hot” or has “hot hands” means the player is on a streak of making many consecutive shots. A question that has dogged researchers, coaches and fans for years is whether players on these streaks can defy random chance, or if hot hands are just an illusion and fit within statistical norms.</p>
<p>We are two researchers who study <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=mVj8o7gAAAAJ&hl=en">information sciences</a> and <a href="https://kelley.iu.edu/faculty-research/faculty-directory/profile.html?id=WINSTON">operations and decision technologies</a>. In <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0261890">our recent study</a>, we examined whether players can indeed get hot in actual live-game situations. Our analysis showed that some players do get consistently “hot” during games and make more shots than expected following two shots made consecutively. However, when we looked at all players together, we found that usually when a player makes more shots than normal after making consecutive shots, they are likely to revert toward the shooting average by missing the next one. Hot hands do exist, but they are rare.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">When players get hot, they are a force to be reckoned with on a basketball court.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>The science of going on a streak</h2>
<p>Fans have always believed in the ability of players to go on a hot streak – as reflected in video games like <a href="https://www.si.com/extra-mustard/2013/11/25/why-on-fire-lives-on-20-years-after-nba-jam">NBA Jam where the virtual ball would catch fire</a> if a player made multiple shots in a row. But academics have been skeptical of the idea ever since a 1985 study concluded that what people perceive as hot hands is nothing more than the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/0010-0285(85)90010-6">human brain’s tendency to misunderstand chance and averages.</a></p>
<p>This changed in 2017 when a seminal paper showed that the original study – and the later ones based on it – <a href="https://theconversation.com/momentum-isnt-magic-vindicating-the-hot-hand-with-the-mathematics-of-streaks-74786">suffered from small but significant selection bias</a> that threw off the statistical calculations. Basically, the way the team chose which shots to look at when searching for streaks or a hot hand threw the math itself off. When researchers accounted for this bias, the hot hand turned out to be real. </p>
<p>The vast majority of studies on hot streaks in basketball have focused on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/0010-0285(85)90010-6">either free throws</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2021.103771">three-point contests</a> or <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2450479">controlled field experiments</a>. We wanted to test the theory in actual competitive games and used data from the 2013-14 and 2014-15 NBA seasons. But in actual game situations, shots are not identical. To control for this, we <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0261890">developed a model that predicts how often a shot will go in</a> based on a number of different factors. These included who the shooter was, the distance from the basket, the type of shot, the distance from the closest defender, who the closest defender was, whether the shot was assisted and other considerations. It is only thanks to the modern, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-nfl-joins-the-data-revolution-in-sports-64717">data-driven era of sports</a> that we could even do such an analysis.</p>
<p>Using this model, we were able to simulate any shot by flipping a figurative coin that represents the probability any particular shot will go in. We could then quantify the hot hand effect by comparing the real world field goal percentage of a player after they were on a streak with the expected percentage obtained through simulating the same shots in our model.</p>
<p>For example, imagine that in the real world a player made 55% of shots after making the two shots before. But our model only predicted he would hit 46% of shots after making the two shots before. If this difference between the model prediction and the real world is statistically significant over time, then it is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0261890">good evidence that the player can get hot and go on streaks</a>.</p>
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<h2>Who has the hot hand?</h2>
<p>Our analysis looked at 153 players who took at least 1,000 shots during the 2013-14 and 2014-15 NBA seasons. We examined shots taken after two, three and four consecutively made shots.</p>
<p>When looking at the shots from all the qualified players, we found that if a person made the two shots prior, their chance of making the next shot was 1.9% percentage lower than the model predicted – their make rate would regress to the mean. </p>
<p>However, when we looked at players individually, the hot hand emerged for a sizable set of players. Specifically, there were 30 players who exhibited a statistically significant higher field goal percentage on a shot following two makes compared to their expected field goal percentage. Of the players who demonstrated the ability to go on hot streaks, the average hot hand effect led to a 2.71% increase in the chance of making a third shot in a row.</p>
<p>For streaks of three and four consecutively made shots, the hot hand effect was even higher – 4.42% on average and 5.81% on average, respectively.</p>
<h2>Why do some people get hot?</h2>
<p>It’s important to note that having a hot hand does not mean any player can suddenly make baskets from anywhere on the court. For example, Tim Duncan, Roy Hibbert and Marcin Gortat all showed the ability to go on hot streaks, but these are all centers who do not typically take shots far from the basket. Their hot hands increased their shooting percentages of close-range shots. This led us to the hypothesis that part of the hot hand effect may come from what is called the <a href="https://joshkaufman.net/explore-exploit/">explore and exploit approach</a>, which refers to a short period of exploring different approaches to solving a problem followed by a period of exploiting the best approach found. For basketball, this would look like a player finding a mismatch during a game – perhaps a shorter player defending them than normal – and exploiting it by taking more of a certain type of shot. Research has also suggested that the explore and exploit approach is connected to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25477-8">streaks of success in artistic and scientific careers</a>. </p>
<p>While this hypothesis is plausible, it may not be the only factor accounting for hot streaks. Could short-term neuroplasticity – the ability of a player’s brain to quickly adapt to conditions in a game – be a cause? What about focus and mental preparation? Whatever the reason, our study provides strong evidence that supports the existence of hot hands. For coaches and players in the NBA or in this year’s NCAA March Madness, it might be a good strategy to follow the old cliche: “Go with the hot hand.”</p>
<p>[<em>The Conversation’s science, health and technology editors pick their favorite stories.</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?nl=science&source=inline-science-favorite">Weekly on Wednesdays</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/179082/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A study shows that a select group of NBA players really do go on hot streaks by making more shots in a row than statistics suggest they should.Konstantinos Pelechrinis, Associate Professor of Computing and Information, University of PittsburghWayne Winston, Professor of Decision and Information Systems, Indiana UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1308432020-02-03T12:57:14Z2020-02-03T12:57:14ZHuge success in business is largely based on luck – new research<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313278/original/file-20200203-41532-p0qdkw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/two-dice-laying-over-pile-money-79422970">Shutterstock/FotograFFF</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Bestselling business books promise to teach you the winning formula and reveal the secrets of success. But the inconvenient truth is that exceptional successes in business are largely based on luck. No rule exists for achieving exceptional performance because it usually requires doing something different or novel and there can be no recipe for such innovation. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/Luck-Business-Idea-Ideas-Management/dp/1138094269/ref=sr_1_1">My new research</a> provides systematic evidence that luck plays a critical role in such performance, not only in business but also in music, movies, science and professional sports. A key finding is that more can be gained by paying more attention to “second best”. </p>
<p>Let’s look at the music industry. If a new band or musician has a top-20 hit, should a music label immediately try to sign them? <a href="https://journals.aom.org/doi/10.5465/AMBPP.2018.19">My analysis</a> of 8,297 acts in the US Billboard 100 from 1980 to 2008 would suggest not. Music label bosses should instead be looking to sign up those reaching positions between 22 and 30, the “second best” in the charts.</p>
<p>A common feature of many artists charting in the top ranks is that they enjoyed a “runaway success”. A classic example is Gangnam Style by Korean artist PSY. The music video went viral beyond anyone’s foresight. Since such an outcome involved exceptional luck, PSY’s success is unsustainable. In fact, artists charting in the top 20 will likely see their next single achieve between 40 and 45 on average, regressing disproportionally more to the mean than their lower performing counterparts. </p>
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<p>Those charting between 22 and 30, meanwhile, have the highest predicted future rank for their next single. Their less exceptional performances suggests that their successes depends less on luck, making their performances a more reliable predictor of their merit as well as future performances. This is where music label bosses will find the hidden gems.</p>
<p>The same happens in the business world. For example, the fastest growing firms – such as those on <a href="https://fortune.com/100-fastest-growing-companies/">Fortune’s 100 Fastest Growing Companies list</a> – usually attract the most media attention, investment and imitation. My results show that the consecutive-year growth rates of firms are almost random but a systematic “less-is-more effect” can occur.</p>
<p>So businesses with the top current growth rate (more than 34% per annum) have a significantly lower expected growth rate next year than firms with a high but less extreme current growth rate (between 32% and 34% per annum). This suggests that top performers are not only luckier than the rest, but also become predictably worse. </p>
<p>However, selling the problematic idea of learning from the most successful continues to prosper. For example, many business bestsellers, such as <a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/Search-Excellence-Americas-Best-Run-Companies/dp/1781253404/ref=sr_1_1?crid=1DAVS3BVBW0A7&keywords=in+search+of+excellence&qid=1580378402&s=books&sprefix=in+search+of+ex%2Cstripbooks%2C271&sr=1-1">In Search of Excellence</a>, the most widely owned book in the US between 1986 and 2006, share a formula. First, select a few successful firms that beat the odds and achieve excellence. Then analyse the shared practices of these firms from when they moved from “good to great” and frame these practices as the principles for others that aspire to become great.</p>
<p>An overlooked caveat is that the exceptional performances featured in these bestsellers typically do not last. Take the 50 firms featured in the three most popular business bestsellers: <a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/Search-Excellence-Americas-Best-Run-Companies/dp/1781253404/">In Search of Excellence</a>, <a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/Great-Collins-Takeaways-Analysis-Review/dp/1944195807/">Good to Great</a> and <a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/Built-Last-Successful-Visionary-Companies/dp/1844135845/">Built to Last</a>. My research <a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/Luck-Business-Idea-Ideas-Management/dp/1138094269/">shows that</a> the significant improvements of these firms (good to great) before being featured were followed by systematic disappointments. Of the 50, 16 failed within five years after the books were published and 23 became mediocre as they under-performed in the <a href="https://us.spindices.com/indices/equity/sp-500">S&P 500 index</a> (which represents the average performance expectation of the 500 largest public companies in the US). </p>
<p>Only five out of the remaining 11 firms maintained a similar level of excellence compared to when they were featured in the books. What happened after becoming great is clearly not enduring greatness but, instead, strong regression to the average.</p>
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<p>Nevertheless, such a misleading “success formula” is still very popular in business media and education. There is a growing number of lists that feature top-performing <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fortune-100.asp">firms</a>, <a href="https://hbr.org/2018/11/the-best-performing-ceos-in-the-world-2018">CEOs</a> and <a href="https://www.entrepreneur.com/slideshow/321571">entrepreneurs</a>. One possible reason for this may be a fundamental paradox in human behaviour: the more uncertain the world becomes, the more people seek out and rely on seemingly <a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/Effect-Business-Delusions-Deceive-Managers/dp/1476784035/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=halo+effect&qid=1580379168&s=books&sr=1-1">certain solutions and strong leaders</a>.</p>
<h2>The business of luck</h2>
<p>Management research and education should focus on prescriptive theories that can help business practitioners move from “incompetent to OK”, rather than focusing on those that address how to move from “good to great”. But current management theories and many business management bestsellers focus on the latter, even though being “great” in business is often primarily a matter of luck. </p>
<p>Such reference to luck is rare in management research. <a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/Luck-Business-Idea-Ideas-Management/dp/1138094269">A review</a> of the use of luck in <a href="http://aom.org/Publications/AMJ/Welcome-to-AMJ.aspx">leading management journals</a> suggests that only 2% of articles mention the word. Business media and educators need to acknowledge that we have a lot of offer to help practitioners to make fewer mistakes in business and everyday life, but there is little we can teach about how to become exceptionally successful. </p>
<p>This poses a challenge to modern societies regarding how to deal with successes. We are hardwired to reward and imitate the most successful. But when the most successful in modern societies are no longer a reliable benchmark, overlooking such a mismatch sees us continuing to reward their luck and augment the inequality.</p>
<p><a href="https://hbr.org/2004/05/the-risky-business-of-hiring-stars">Hiring “stars”</a> or copying the practices of <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/323039?seq=1">the most successful</a> not only leads to predicable disappointment but also <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Leeson">encourage cheating</a> because there is no other way to replicate their exceptional good luck. The business world needs to balance the accounts of exceptional performance and take a far more judgemental look at the <a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/Luck-Business-Idea-Ideas-Management/dp/1138094269/ref=sr_1_1">effects of luck</a> and the benefits of being second – or even third or fourth – best. Blindly rewarding successes strengthens the myth of meritocracy and invites fraud.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/130843/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chengwei Liu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Ignore business books which promise to reveal the secret formula of success – usually it’s down to luck.Chengwei Liu, Associate Professor of Strategy and Behavioural Science, Warwick Business School, University of WarwickLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1298642020-01-30T19:09:18Z2020-01-30T19:09:18ZWhy we knock on wood for luck<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/312668/original/file-20200129-92959-s1eqbo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C3%2C2628%2C1821&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Knocking on wood may be a holdover from the pagan days of Europe, when tree spirits were believed to bring luck. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-vector/hand-knock-knocking-on-door-room-390896041">saiful bahri 46/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Ever said something like, “I’ve never gotten a speeding ticket” – and then quickly, for luck, rapped your knuckles on a wooden table or doorframe?</p>
<p>Americans accompany this action by saying, “Knock on wood.” In Great Britain, it’s “Touch wood.” They knock on wood <a href="https://www.history.com/news/why-do-people-knock-on-wood-for-luck">in Turkey</a>, too. </p>
<p>As a teacher of <a href="https://rosemaryhathaway.faculty.wvu.edu">folklore</a> – the study of “the expressive culture of everyday life,” as my <a href="https://trove.nla.gov.au/version/45437506">favorite short definition puts it</a> – I’m often asked why people knock on wood.</p>
<h2>The answer is complicated</h2>
<p>The common explanation for knocking on wood claims the ritual is a holdover from Europe’s pagan days, an appeal to tree-dwelling spirits to ward off bad luck or an expression of <a href="https://www.history.com/news/why-do-people-knock-on-wood-for-luck">gratitude for good fortune</a>.</p>
<p>According to <a href="https://www.oxfordreference.com/view/10.1093/acref/9780199990009.001.0001/acref-9780199990009">Brewer’s Dictionary of Phrase and Fable</a>, “traditionally, certain trees, such as the oak, ash, hazel, hawthorn and willow, had a sacred significance and thus protective powers.”</p>
<p>Furthermore, the theory goes, Christian reformers in Europe may have deliberately transformed this heathenish belief into a more acceptable Christian one by introducing the idea that the “wood” in “knock on wood” referred to the wood of the cross of Jesus’ crucifixion. </p>
<p>However, no tangible evidence supports these origin stories. </p>
<p>The Oxford English Dictionary <a href="https://www.oed.com/view/Entry/203877">traces the phrase</a> “touch wood” only back to the early 19th century, locating its origins in a British children’s tag game called Tiggy-touch-wood, in which children could make themselves “exempt…from capture [by] touching wood.”</p>
<p>Of course, much folklore is learned informally, by word of mouth or customary behavior. So it’s possible – even likely – that the phrase and the ritual predate its first appearance in print. </p>
<h2>So why do we still knock on wood?</h2>
<p>I’d wager few, if any, people today think – after saying something that might bring bad luck – “I’d better ask the tree spirits for help!” </p>
<p>Still they knock, to avoid negative consequences. </p>
<p>That puts knocking on wood in a category with other “conversion rituals” like <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/541285">throwing salt over one’s shoulder</a>: actions people perform, almost automatically, to “undo” any bad luck just created.</p>
<p>The anthropologist Bronislaw Malinowski has a theory about such actions, called the “<a href="https://www.abc-clio.com/ABC-CLIOCorporate/product.aspx?pc=A1870C">anxiety-ritual theory</a>.” It states that the anxiety created by uncertainty leads people to turn to magic and ritual to gain a sense of control. </p>
<p>Knocking on wood may seem trivial, but it is one small way people quell their fears in a life full of anxieties.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129864/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rosemary V. Hathaway does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The curious history of a ritual meant to ward off bad luck.Rosemary V. Hathaway, Associate Professor of English, West Virginia UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/997662018-07-16T20:09:57Z2018-07-16T20:09:57ZSkill vs luck: who really deserves the rewards from success?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/227540/original/file-20180713-27027-uegaf1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">How much is success down to skill or just a lucky break?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/Sergey Nivens </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Which is more important when it comes to rewarding success: that the achievement was earned through skill, or that it came courtesy of a lucky break?</p>
<p>Take football (soccer), for example, where the aim (like most games) is to score more goals than your opponent. What if a player aiming for goal strikes the post and the ball then goes into the net – is that down to skill or luck?</p>
<p>That’s something we looked at in a <a href="https://ideas.repec.org/p/qut/qubewp/wp049.html">recent study</a>. We isolated situations in which negligible differences in performance gave rise to very different outcomes in a game: that is, when players hit a post or crossbar while trying to score.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/aim-for-the-middle-it-could-be-your-best-shot-for-a-goal-in-a-penalty-shootout-99679">Aim for the middle: it could be your best shot for a goal in a penalty shootout</a>
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<p>We collected the data from more than 13,000 shots that hit a post – in 10,679 cases the ball bounced away, but in 2,387 cases it deflected into the goal.</p>
<p>Using the location from where the shot was taken, we matched all scoring shots with non-scoring shots taken from a location within 45cm of each other.</p>
<p>We found that when comparing such shots, there are no visible differences in a player’s skill or performance. But the effect of this single shot on the assessment of their match performance was substantial. </p>
<h2>Praise to the goalscorer</h2>
<p>Players scoring goals from such shots had a much higher match rating from sports journalists, and their coach gave them more playing time in their next match. </p>
<p>This effect is not explained by a better performance after scoring or a better expected performance in the next match. Basically, a player with a successful goal was overly rewarded relative to a player with a very similar shot that missed by just a few centimetres.</p>
<p>The beauty of this exercise is that it allows us to isolate a situation in which the difference in performance between success and failure is very small.</p>
<p>In any success there is an element of luck: being at the right place at the right time, with the right people, having made choices that ended up having an unexpectedly good outcome.</p>
<h2>Skill or luck?</h2>
<p>Distinguishing performance from luck is an important problem when we need to know whether a successful person should be trusted and rewarded for his or her success. </p>
<p>For example, an employer needs to know whether achievements on a person’s resume signal skill and effort, or plain luck. A grant reviewer needs to form a view on whether a researcher with a good publication was just lucky to be part of a talented team.</p>
<p>Disentangling skill and effort from luck is hard, because success is an imperfect signal of performance. Skill and effort are typically imperfectly observable. </p>
<p>It is often impossible to know all the potential choices that could have been made to assess whether a decision was the best one, given the available options at the time. And it is usually impossible to know whether somebody could have tried harder in a given situation.</p>
<p>Economists have recognised that luck and performance are imperfectly separable. As a consequence, they advise to reward or sanction imperfect signals of performance in order to provide incentives for performance.</p>
<p>This conclusion is stated in the “informativeness principle” from economist and 2016 <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economic-sciences/laureates/2016/holmstrom-facts.html">Nobel Prize winner Bengt Holmstrom</a>: imperfect signals of performance should be rewarded to the extent that they are likely to signal performance. </p>
<p>To return to our football example, there is clearly an element of unpredictability in matches, with even the best teams at risk of losing against a weaker team.</p>
<p>But the evidence suggests that success is often overly rewarded, as if the element of luck in success tended to be neglected. </p>
<h2>Reward breeds more reward</h2>
<p>Our study suggests this over-rewarding of luck is likely to be present in a wide range of situations.</p>
<p>For example, a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-04958-9">study of success in research careers</a> found young researchers in the Netherlands who just qualify for a postdoctoral grant were 50% more likely to become a professor than those who just missed out. </p>
<p>This difference in success was not due to a greater publication record in the years following the award. Nonetheless, they secured much more funding afterwards, perhaps partly because their early award of a postdoctoral grant was interpreted later on as signalling that they were better researchers.</p>
<p>In the broader economic context, the role that luck plays in success tends to be underestimated.</p>
<p>Successful entrepreneurs are praised for their business acumen. Many of them sell books recounting how they made it to the top – and how you can too, if you follow their principles.</p>
<p>These books do not show you the multitude of people who tried to make it to the top, often with the same recipe, but who failed.</p>
<p>One of the most famous thinkers on free markets, the Austrian economist <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/F-A-Hayek">Friedrich Hayek</a>, in his book Law, Legislation and Liberty, <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?id=9IpEBAAAQBAJ&pg=PA276&lpg=PA276#v=onepage&q&f=false">recognised this role of luck in economic success</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The element of luck is as inseparable from the operation of the market as the element of skill.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>A measure of success</h2>
<p>As a way to measure the role of luck in success, <a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/1802.07068.pdf">researchers recently created</a> a model of economic success in which agents with different abilities faced several random events, either positive opportunities or negative accidents.</p>
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<p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/when-to-trust-and-not-to-trust-peer-reviewed-science-99365">When to trust (and not to trust) peer reviewed science</a>
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</p>
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<p>In simulations, the researchers observed that the distribution of success tended to be concentrated at the top with a few agents ending up being much more successful than the rest. </p>
<p>But they also found that the most skillful people were almost never the most successful. Instead, lucky individuals tended to be the most successful. </p>
<p>So be careful next time you are about to look up to someone for what you see as their success. Was it down to their skill and performance, or just a lucky break? And be careful not to overlook worthy performers who just happened to be unlucky.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/99766/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Romain Gauriot receives funding from the Australian Research Council Discovery Projects funding scheme (DP150101307) </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lionel Page does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Be careful how you reward success. Was it achieved through hard-earned skill or just a lucky break?Lionel Page, Professor in Economics, Queensland University of TechnologyRomain Gauriot, Research Associate, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/941082018-04-12T19:56:15Z2018-04-12T19:56:15ZOn Friday the 13th, leave the superstitions at home<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/214390/original/file-20180411-587-u6xrpt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Of all the days to stay in bed, Friday the 13th is surely the best. It’s the title of a popular (if increasingly corny) horror movie series; it’s associated with bad luck and it’s generally thought to be a good time not to take any serious risks. </p>
<p>Even if you try to escape it, you might fail, as happened to New Yorker Daz Baxter. On Friday 13th in 1976, he decided to just stay in bed for the day, only to be killed when the floor of his apartment block collapsed under him. There’s even a term for the terror the day evokes: <a href="https://www.macmillandictionary.com/buzzword/entries/paraskevidekatriaphobia.html">Paraskevidekatriaphobia</a> was coined by the psychotherapist <a href="http://www.drdossey.com/Bio.htm">Donald Dossey</a>, a specialist in phobias, to describe an intense and irrational fear of the date. </p>
<p>Unfortunately there is always <a href="http://ed5015.tripod.com/PaFriday13thCalendar11.htm">one Friday 13th in a year</a>, and sometimes there are as many as three. Today is one of them - and another comes in July. But no matter how many times the masked killer <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jason_Voorhees">Jason Voorhees</a> from <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0080761/?ref_=nv_sr_2">Friday the 13th</a> returns to haunt our screens, this fear is in our own minds rather than any basis in science. </p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/bcoi-Zgg8BU?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
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<p>One study did show a small rise in accidents on that day for women drivers in Finland, <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12450968">but much of the problem was due to anxiety rather than general bad luck.</a> Follow-up <a href="https://translate.google.com.au/translate?hl=en&sl=de&u=http://www.skeptizismus.de/freitag.pdf&prev=search">research</a> found no consistent evidence of a <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15546493">rise in accidents</a> on the day, but suggested that if you’re superstitious, it might be better not get behind the wheel of a car on it anyway.</p>
<p>The stigma against Friday 13th likely comes from a merging of two different superstitions. In the <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/i266158">Christian tradition</a>, the death of Jesus took place on a Friday, following the presence of 13 people at the Last Supper. In Teutonic legend, the god Loki appears at a dinner party seated for 12 gods, making him the outcast 13th at the table, <a href="https://www.csicop.org/superstition/library/number_thirteen">leading to the death of another guest</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/214387/original/file-20180411-584-1y17nwe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/214387/original/file-20180411-584-1y17nwe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/214387/original/file-20180411-584-1y17nwe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214387/original/file-20180411-584-1y17nwe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214387/original/file-20180411-584-1y17nwe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214387/original/file-20180411-584-1y17nwe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214387/original/file-20180411-584-1y17nwe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214387/original/file-20180411-584-1y17nwe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">13 was certainly unlucky number for Jesus. Leonardo da Vinci, The Last Supper, 1498.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:%C3%9Altima_Cena_-_Da_Vinci_5.jpg">Wikimedia</a></span>
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<p>Elsewhere in the world, 13 is less unlucky. In Hinduism, people fast to worship Lord Shiva and Parvati on <em>Trayodashi</em>, the 13th day in Hindu month. There are 13 Buddhas in the Shingon sect of Buddhism, and there is mention of a lucky 13 signs, rather than unlucky, in <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Origins-Popular-Superstitions-Customs-Forgotten/dp/1605064580">The Tibetan Book of the Great Liberation</a>.</p>
<p>In Italy, it is more likely to be “heptadecaphobia”, or <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/311337579_Superstitions_religiosity_and_secularization_An_analysis_of_the_periodic_oscillations_of_weddings_in_Italy">fear of the number 17</a>, that leads to a change of plans. In Greece, Spain, and Mexico, the “unlucky” day is not Friday 13th, but Tuesday 13th. </p>
<p>In China, the number four is considered significantly unlucky, as it is nearly homophonous to the word “death”. In a <a href="http://www.mccrindle.com.au/ResearchSummaries/The-Lucky-Country.pdf">multicultural country like Australia</a> you may find hotels and cinemas missing both 13th and fourth floors, out of respect for the trepidation people can have about those numbers.</p>
<h2>The lure of superstition</h2>
<p>Superstitions were one of the first elements of paranormal beliefs studied in the early 1900s. While many are now just social customs rather than a genuine conviction, their persistence is remarkable.</p>
<p>If you cross your fingers, feel alarmed at breaking a mirror, find a “lucky” horseshoe or throw spilled salt over your shoulder, you are engaging in long-held practices that can have a powerful impact on your emotions. Likewise, many students are now heading towards their semester exams. In the lecture rooms, they may take lucky charms such as a particular pen or favourite socks. </p>
<p>In sports, baseballer Nomar Garciaparra is known for his <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WIJYdE2Juew">elaborate batting ritual</a>. Other sports people wear “lucky gear” or put on their <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Rituals-Ceremonies-Popular-Culture-Browne/dp/0879721618">gloves in a particular order</a>. The great cricket umpire David Shepherd stood on one leg <a href="https://www.thenational.ae/uae/an-umpire-with-the-air-of-a-genial-butcher-1.491740">whenever the score reached 111</a>. These sorts of superstitions are humorously depicted in the film <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1045658/">Silver Linings Playbook</a>. It’s interesting to note that it’s often the <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/believing-in-magic-9780199996926?cc=au&lang=en&">successful athletes</a> who have these superstitions and stick to them.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/214394/original/file-20180411-543-1i31vnq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/214394/original/file-20180411-543-1i31vnq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/214394/original/file-20180411-543-1i31vnq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214394/original/file-20180411-543-1i31vnq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214394/original/file-20180411-543-1i31vnq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214394/original/file-20180411-543-1i31vnq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214394/original/file-20180411-543-1i31vnq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214394/original/file-20180411-543-1i31vnq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Lucky charms can make you feel good.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock.com</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>One key reason for the persistence of superstition is a psychological concept called a “discriminative stimulus”. An example of this is the gambler who notices he always seem to win when betting on “lucky 7”, and forgets all the times that same number has not been in his favour.</p>
<p>Charms do work in a fashion. If you wear your lucky underwear and succeed enough, you will feel distress that actually impedes your performance if you’re not wearing them. This then influences your performance – an “A” seems guaranteed because you walk in fully prepared. </p>
<p>But if you’re feeling a little anxious this Friday, try to remember there’s nothing different about it to any other day.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/94108/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kylie Sturgess does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Superstition holds that Friday 13th is the day to stay in bed and avoid taking risks. But it’s all in our heads.Kylie Sturgess, Tutor and Researcher Radio Broadcasting, Murdoch UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/901242018-02-24T10:38:00Z2018-02-24T10:38:00ZOracles and models: ancient and modern ways of telling the future<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/205034/original/file-20180206-14072-1ca1liw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:The_Oracle_of_Delphi_Entranced.jpg">Heinrich Leutemann [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When something unexpected happens to us we still tend to ask “why me?” – and it’s difficult to know where to look for an answer.</p>
<p>While scientific analysis can provide us with better general comprehension of how the world works, it doesn’t always help us to understand our own experience. And public discussions of risk all too often become arguments about who is to blame, for example, <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/weather/10629749/UK-flooding-homeowners-knew-the-risk-says-Environment-Agency-chairman.html">after disastrous flooding</a>.</p>
<p>In previous eras, we might have turned to the language of fate, luck and fortune. But although still used colloquially, these concepts have lost their explanatory power. In many ways, this is surely a good thing: ideas of fate, luck and fortune have often been linked to moral judgements about people, <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/id/9600878/ns/msnbc-morning_joe/t/hurricane-katrina-wrath-god/#.WoiIRHxG0dU">as happened after Hurricane Katrina</a>. </p>
<p>But we can also learn a lot from history, specifically the Ancient Greeks and how they conceptualised fate, luck and fortune, and tried to anticipate the future.</p>
<h2>Ancient futures</h2>
<p>In Ancient Greek culture, fate, luck and fortune were familiar, everyday concepts. They were not just imposed by the gods, but were themselves divine forces, invisibly disrupting people’s lives. </p>
<p>People coped by trying to engage with these forces. One way was to <a href="https://quatr.us/greeks/oracles-ancient-greece.htm">visit an oracle</a> – a temple or sanctuary where a supernatural figure could provide insights into matters that were hidden or unclear, such as future events. The most famous oracle was at Delphi in central Greece, where a woman (<a href="https://www.ancient.eu/Pythia/">the Pythia</a>), possessed by the god Apollo, answered questions posed to her, often by representatives of city-states.</p>
<p>Examining the thinking behind deciding to visit an oracle can help us to understand why people did this. Before visiting an oracle, to make sure they got the most useful response, consultants had to phrase their questions carefully. To do this they had to reflect on the different ways in which their futures might work out.</p>
<p>Once they had an answer from the oracle, they had to work out what it meant. Scholarship is undecided as to whether Delphi’s responses were <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/3287085">given as riddles</a> that had to be solved or <a href="https://www.yes-no-oracle.com/dice-oracle.php">as simple “yes” or “no” responses</a>. Either way, visitors would still have had to try to fit the answer they received to a likely future outcome – and decide on what action they would take.</p>
<h2>Trust in your wooden wall</h2>
<p>Herodotus, the fifth-century BC historian of the Persian Wars gives <a href="http://www.pbs.org/empires/thegreeks/characters/themistocles_p8.html">a famous example</a> of this process. He relates how, as the Persian invaders approached, the city of Athens sent ambassadors to Delphi. The first oracle they received was one of impending doom. The ambassadors felt they could not take this message back to Athens, so they asked for another. </p>
<p>The second oracle was more puzzling: long and full of vivid imagery, it included the idea that a wooden wall would help the Athenians. The ambassadors took this oracle back to Athens, where the citizens discussed its meaning. Different groups interpreted it differently, and pursued various courses of action, but the majority followed the military commander, Themistocles. He argued that the wooden wall represented the navy and that Delphi was foretelling an Athenian naval victory at Salamis – which, as history tells us, is what actually happened.</p>
<p>True or not, this episode provides two important insights into ancient Greek futures thinking. First, the Athenians seem to have conceived of their future as being both plural and full of possibilities. Their future was not set in stone, but was something fluid that they could influence. Second, that in the process of thinking about the future, they exercised a crucial skill: storytelling.</p>
<h2>Storytelling and uncertainty</h2>
<p>We all tell stories – it’s so natural we rarely think about it. But in fact, storytelling is a crucial tool for dealing with the unexpected. If we can explore different possible multiple narratives about how the future might turn out, we can make more informed decisions in the present. </p>
<p>In the process of developing different stories about, and imagining our roles in, different possible futures, there’s room for further learning – about ourselves, and how we respond to particular situations.</p>
<p>The everyday process of storytelling can support us as individuals in dealing with the unexpected, and – at the policy level – inform how we plan for the future. My discussions on this subject with <a href="https://royalsociety.org/people/claire-craig-9083/">Claire Craig</a> (chief science policy officer at the Royal Society – here acting in a personal capacity) suggest that thinking about ancient oracles and how they work brings us face-to-face with some aspects of modern approaches to dealing with risk and uncertainty.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/206762/original/file-20180216-131003-1i95bbx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/206762/original/file-20180216-131003-1i95bbx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/206762/original/file-20180216-131003-1i95bbx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/206762/original/file-20180216-131003-1i95bbx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/206762/original/file-20180216-131003-1i95bbx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/206762/original/file-20180216-131003-1i95bbx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/206762/original/file-20180216-131003-1i95bbx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The modern-day oracle speaks.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/business-analytics-financial-technology-concept-3d-730273642?src=ENeJGcs9HO5OyfzYfJX2vQ-1-14">Ditty_about_summer via Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>Some of the most important approaches to coping with unexpected events, from economics to the weather, involve modelling: these include <a href="http://www.economist.com/node/12000755">scenario planning</a> (an approach to strategy that uses storytelling) and <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/682579/computational-modelling-blackett-review.pdf">computational modelling</a>. These approaches enable us to imagine in detail what it would be like if a particular future came about.</p>
<h2>Exploring the future</h2>
<p>This does not mean that this approach can tell us what will happen – none of us knows how the future will develop and no model can tell us exactly. We must still think critically about how models are used as evidence, what answers they provide and how the uncertainties around them are presented. </p>
<p>We also need to take account of what is known about how individuals react to new and challenging information. For example, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/confirmation-bias-a-psychological-phenomenon-that-helps-explain-why-pundits-got-it-wrong-68781">effects of confirmation bias</a> may mean that it is difficult for people to change their minds; and individual decisions will be shaped by the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/innovation-managing-risk-not-avoiding-it">interplay of analysis and emotion</a>.</p>
<p>But telling stories about the future does enable us to explore different possible answers. We can learn a lot from examining the futures that models depict and reflecting on how those imagined environments could shape our behaviour. </p>
<p>Modelling, oracles: both are technologies of anticipation. With both technologies we need to craft our future stories with care: paying attention to the questions we ask, as well as the answers we create. Perhaps one of the insights from thinking about our pasts is how to approach our futures.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/90124/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Esther Eidinow receives funding from the Arts and Humanities Research Council and the Leverhulme Trust. </span></em></p>There’s a surprising amount in common between ancient ways of thinking about the future and the techniques we use now.Esther Eidinow, Professor of Ancient History, University of BristolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/771112017-05-03T11:57:09Z2017-05-03T11:57:09ZGetting rich is largely about luck – shame the wealthy don’t want to hear it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/167699/original/file-20170503-21612-141a9sm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=315%2C285%2C4316%2C2909&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/extra-large-luxury-yachts-rest-port-469860224?src=JG0KJwn2d-lrTCCcj1AHsQ-2-13">Zoom Team/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The UK suffers from the <a href="https://www.indy100.com/article/the-uk-is-the-most-unequal-country-in-the-eu--l1It2nHEZb">highest levels of income inequality in Europe</a> – partly because of the delusions of its rich. In countries where the rich have less, they <a href="http://www.dannydorling.org/books/onepercent/">tend to be less delusional</a>, about themselves, about other people, about what is possible, and about why some become rich.</p>
<p>In the UK, it is unsurprising to read that an investment banker thinks £100m is a lot of money but <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2017/may/03/how-do-britains-highest-earners-feel-about-their-income">“not a ridiculous amount of money”</a>. In a report in The Guardian newspaper this week, we also heard that one particular banker is “fairly confident” that a driven and passionate individual could “start from zero and get to £100m within 20 years”.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/167703/original/file-20170503-21645-uzqpoq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/167703/original/file-20170503-21645-uzqpoq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/167703/original/file-20170503-21645-uzqpoq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/167703/original/file-20170503-21645-uzqpoq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/167703/original/file-20170503-21645-uzqpoq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/167703/original/file-20170503-21645-uzqpoq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/167703/original/file-20170503-21645-uzqpoq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/167703/original/file-20170503-21645-uzqpoq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Grab it while you can…</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/businessman-business-suit-takes-money-dollars-584527624?src=x8NJGFbrtK6zbQtfj6cp6A-1-2">Vova Shevchuk/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>However, there is hope. In the research report that kicked off this latest set of news stories, Katharina Hecht from the London School of Economics and Political Science found that <a href="http://www.lse.ac.uk/International-Inequalities/Assets/Documents/Working-Papers/Katharina-Hecht-A-Relational-Analysis-of-Top-Incomes-and-Wealth.pdf">one third of her sample</a> of extremely rich people working in the City of London agreed that “the government should reduce income differences”. The sample is extremely small and this subset of the very rich has not been asked similar questions before, but what they say chimes with <a href="http://fortune.com/2016/03/22/millionaires-raise-taxes/">reports from the US last year</a> which implied attitudes among the extremely wealthy are beginning to change.</p>
<p>In 2016 in New York, 50 millionaires wrote to the state’s governor, Andrew Cuomo, asking him to increase their taxes because they thought economic inequalities had grown too high. The group included Abigail Disney, granddaughter of Walt Disney, and Steven Rockefeller, a fourth-generation member of that very wealthy family. The offspring of the rich at least know they did not bring in their riches, let alone create them out of thin air.</p>
<p>In truth, no one creates wealth out of the ether as the mythic phrase “wealth creator” suggests. Most wealth is appropriated from others, not made. Wealth can grow but only when it is well shared, not corralled into the hands of a few. <a href="https://newint.org/books/politics/the-equality-effect/">Wealth growth rates are highest</a> in countries that are more equitable than their neighbours. </p>
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<p>Four years after the great financial crash, <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/22/moneyball-author-michael-lewis-says-being-lazy-is-the-key-to-success.html">Michael Lewis</a>, one of the most successful people ever to write about the financial industry tried to <a href="https://www.princeton.edu/main/news/archive/S33/87/54K53/">explain to a group of Princeton University graduates</a> why most of his own and his audience’s success would be down to luck. The author of The Big Short and Moneyball told them that the odds would just be tipped a little in their favour if they were born with a silver spoon in their mouth:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>People really don’t like to hear success explained away as luck – especially successful people. As they age, and succeed, people feel their success was somehow inevitable. They don’t want to acknowledge the role played by accident in their lives. There is a reason for this: the world does not want to acknowledge it either.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Lucking out</h2>
<p>The world Lewis was talking about was not the whole world, but the world as seen by the elites in unequal countries. By “world” he really meant “America”, and in particular he was talking about the “American Dream” – the idea that anyone can make it if they try hard enough and are talented enough, no matter how economically unequal the society is they are competing in.</p>
<p>The American dream is a myth, just like the London investment banker’s fantasy. Those who make money are often not very talented at all. They were just lucky at the right points in their lives. They might have worked hard and often are driven and greedy, but thousands of others will have worked as hard as them, been just as greedy as them, and not consistently struck it lucky. Most often, those who make money had money given to them in the first place, through inheritance that increased their chances; but it is always down to luck. Don’t believe the myth of the nice, kind, gifted, self-made entrepreneur.</p>
<p>We live in a world in which those who have got to the top have got there not out of great merit, but because they often had a few unfair advantages to start with, such as being born male, white and rich, because they had many lucky breaks on the way up, and often because they were willing to stamp on others’ chances as they rose. The human world does not consist of just a few superior beings able enough to do the key things that need doing, and a lumpen mass of inferior beings who could never do these things and so should be penalised appropriately.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/77111/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Danny Dorling's latest book, "The Equality Effect: improving life for everyone", is published by New Internationalist later this month.</span></em></p>A new report confirms how the rich become deluded about their talents, but also hints at a growing acknowledgement of inequality.Danny Dorling, Halford Mackinder Professor of Geography, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/529722016-01-12T18:57:43Z2016-01-12T18:57:43ZOdds are $1.5 billion Powerball winner will end up bankrupt<p>The <a href="http://www.powerball.com/powerball/pb_prizes.asp">U.S. Powerball lottery</a> is holding a drawing this week for a jackpot that’s already reached US$1.5 billion. That’s after the 18 drawings held since November failed to yield a winner, causing the grand prize to swell to this record sum. </p>
<p>This jackpot is drawing such attention that more people are buying tickets, and even the lottery’s own projections are changing rapidly. During the weekend the payout was an estimated $1.3 billion. Monday it was revised to $1.4 billion and on Tuesday it hit $1.5 billion.</p>
<p>That makes it the largest lottery <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/latest-powerball-winner-jackpot-reach-13-billion-36194549">grand prize</a> the world has ever seen, even compared with the “<a href="https://www.elgordo.com/indexen.asp">El Gordo</a>” lottery in Spain, which in December awarded a larger cache of prizes ($2.4 billion) but spread it among thousands of winners. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.powerball.com/powerball/pb_prizes.asp">odds of winning</a> this huge sum of money on January 13 are very small (1 in 292 million). You are <a href="http://www.timesonline.com/news/local_news/powerball-jackpot-tops-b-better-chance-of-being-struck-by/article_46ea54ea-b8a9-11e5-a2dc-27412bd20dd6.html">250 times more likely to be hit by lightning</a>. If every adult in the U.S. purchased just one ticket, each with a different number, there would still be a good chance (about 15 percent) that no winner would arise and the pot would grow even larger.</p>
<p>On Wednesday night, however, a winner is actually very likely, since many lottery players are <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/business/bs-bz-powerball-maryland-odds-20160111-story.html">not limiting themselves to a single ticket</a> and the massive prize is <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/u-powerball-fever-grips-ticket-buyers-prize-1-201821221.html">luring hordes of Americans</a> to try their luck, along with – reportedly – <a href="http://time.com/4176851/record-powerball-canadians/">thousands of Canadians</a>. </p>
<p>Once a winner is declared a more interesting question arises: what happens to all that money and the lucky ticket holder(s)? </p>
<p>Fortunately for us, academia has a lot to say about it. </p>
<h2>A smaller prize than it seems</h2>
<p>Most of the academic research has dealt with smaller lottery prizes and inheritances, since there are relatively few giant jackpot winners. But while the $1.5 billion jackpot is eye-wateringly large, the actual payout will be much less. </p>
<p>Wednesday night’s winner or winners will not actually receive $1.5 billion. Assuming just one person wins it, he or she can either choose a lump sum payment that amounts to about $930 million or will have to wait 30 years for all the payments to accrue. </p>
<p>And then there’s the taxman’s big bite. <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/janetnovack/2013/03/23/tax-on-320-million-powerball-jackpot-millions-more-than-in-2012/">Forbes estimates</a> that a single winner in a low-tax state, like Florida, who elects to take all the money in one lump sum instead of in 30 payments will get a check for about a half-billion dollars. </p>
<p>That jackpot is starting to look a lot smaller, though it’s still a fair chunk of change. </p>
<h2>What happens to windfalls</h2>
<p>Previous research suggests many people quickly spend any unexpected windfalls. A 2001 paper (by economists Guido Imbens and Bruce Sacerdote and statistician Donald Rubin) <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.91.4.778">found</a> that lottery winners saved just 16 cents of every dollar won. </p>
<p>Other studies found that instead of getting people <em>out</em> of financial trouble, winning the lottery got people <em>into</em> more trouble, since <a href="http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1162/REST_a_00114#.VpLMM1J327Q">bankruptcy rates soared for lottery winners</a> three to five years after winning. </p>
<p>It is not only winning the lottery that causes people to spend. My own research found that the average person in their 20’s, 30’s and 40’s who was <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10834-012-9299-y">given an inheritance or large financial gift</a> quickly lost half the money through spending or poor investments. </p>
<p>Overall, research shows lottery winners and people getting windfalls spend or blow through much of the money. Nevertheless, lottery sales in the U.S. <a href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=227215">have increased dramatically</a> since their introduction in the 1970s. </p>
<h2>Blowing it all</h2>
<p>So how exactly does a lottery winner blow through hundreds of millions of dollars? </p>
<p>Demographic research on lottery players’ characteristics shows that <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10899-010-9228-7">lottery playing peaks</a> when people are in the 30-39 age range and actually falls as people get older.</p>
<p>The average person in the U.S. <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2014/10/08/us-life-expectancy-hits-record-high/16874039/">lives to age 79</a>. This means a sole winner “blowing through it all” (and ending up with no assets to show for it) would have only about 45 years to spend the entire after-tax half-billion dollars (assuming a lump sum payment). That means the person would have to spend more than $10 million a year, roughly $30,000 per day (ignoring any interest accrued). </p>
<p>It is important to understand that most of the academic research separates out spending from investing. If a lottery winner “blows” all his money on expensive homes, paintings and very high-end cars, his net worth does not actually change. </p>
<p>Instead, he has simply transferred one asset, which is cash, into another asset, like real estate, artwork or exotic cars. At the end of his life, if real estate, art and auto prices have not fallen, he is still just as rich as when he won the lottery. </p>
<p>Blowing through the money, which leads to bankruptcy and low savings rates, means the winner has nothing to show for their spending besides a good time. </p>
<h2>Could that happen with the latest jackpot?</h2>
<p>We’ve already established that a sole winner of this week’s lottery will probably end up with a lot less than $1.5 billion. But imagine for a second that a lucky person manages to win all of that money; would it be possible to spend it all and arrive at life’s end with nothing to show for it?</p>
<p>In fact, it has already been done once by a man named Huntington Hartford, who lived from 1911 to 2008. </p>
<p>Huntington was the heir to <a href="http://www.groceteria.com/store/national-chains/ap/ap-history/">The Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Company</a> fortune. This company, which started just before the Civil War, is better known as the A&P supermarket chain. A&P was the first U.S. coast-to-coast food store, and from World War I to the 1960s was what <a href="http://www.walmart.com/">Walmart</a> is for today’s American shoppers. </p>
<p>Huntington inherited <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/obituaries/1996555/Huntington-Hartford.html">approximately $90 million</a> when he was 12. <a href="http://businessmacroeconomics.com/">Adjusting for inflation</a> means he was given almost $1.3 billion as a child, <em>after</em> taxes. Huntington <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/20/ap-heir-huntington-hartfo_n_102582.html">declared bankruptcy</a> in New York in 1992, approximately 70 years after being handed one of the largest fortunes in the world. </p>
<p>Huntington had the reverse Midas touch. He lost millions buying real estate, creating an art museum and sponsoring theaters and shows. He combined poor business skills with an exceptionally lavish lifestyle. After declaring bankruptcy, he lived as a recluse with a daughter in the Bahamas at the end of his life. </p>
<p>Huntington’s life story – coupled with academic research that suggests people quickly spend their windfalls – means not only that you have very long odds of winning Wednesday’s $1.5 billion Powerball jackpot prize, but you have just as long odds of keeping money around after winning it. </p>
<p>If you are planning on playing, I wish you good luck. If you are planning on winning, I wish you even more luck. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, the key lesson for everyone, whether you play or not, is that when you get a windfall or win the lottery, plan ahead and resist the all-too-human temptation to spend all the money.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/52972/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
At first glance, US$1.5 billion seems like a lot of money. But that’s before taxes and a tendency for winners to spend it unwisely.Jay L. Zagorsky, Economist and Research Scientist, The Ohio State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/392242015-03-26T06:33:27Z2015-03-26T06:33:27ZHard Evidence: is poker a game of chance or skill?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75985/original/image-20150325-14532-fv0zpy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Chance or skill?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">www.shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Any player worth a pair of deuces will tell you that poker is a game of skill. In the words of Lancey Howard, the unbeatable master in classic film <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UI6pSkIs_tc">The Cincinnati Kid</a>, it’s all about “making the wrong move at the right time” – a snippet of wisdom he delivers after beating the Kid’s full house with a straight flush, a combination of hands with odds that have since been calculated to be in excess of 20-million-to-one.</p>
<p>Chris Moneymaker, winner of the 2003 World Series of Poker Main Event and surely the greatest example of <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today/newsid_9664000/9664697.stm">nominative determinism</a> in the game, once remarked: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>The beautiful thing about poker is that everybody thinks they can play. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>And he’s right. </p>
<p>Online poker rooms, which in 2013 alone generated an estimated £2.8 billion in gross winnings globally, attract millions of beginners whose assessment of their own abilities bears little relation to reality.</p>
<p>Naturally, there has never been any doubt that luck plays a part. The aforementioned greenhorns wouldn’t hang around for long if it didn’t. Equally, it would be bizarre to deny that at least some measure of skill must be involved – otherwise why would some competitors win more consistently than their rivals?</p>
<h2>Chance vs skill</h2>
<p>But the key question is whether one element dominates the other. The reasoning is simple enough: if chance dominates skill then poker is a game of chance, and if skill dominates chance then poker is a game of skill. This is what I set out to determine in research <a href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0115479">recently published in PLOS One</a>, with colleagues Rogier Potter van Loon at the Erasmus University Rotterdam and Martijn van den Assem at VU University Amsterdam.</p>
<p>Drawing on a database of 456m player-hand observations from a year’s worth of online games, we first investigated how consistent player performance was. This revealed substantial evidence of the role of skill in successful play.</p>
<p>For instance, players who ranked in the best-performing 10% in the first six months of the year were more than twice as likely as others to do similarly well in the next six months. And, players who finished in the best-performing 1% in the first half of the year were 12 times more likely than others to repeat the feat in the second half. Meanwhile, players who fared badly from the start continued to lose and hardly ever metamorphosed into top performers.</p>
<p>The point here is that performance is predictable. In a game of chance there would be no correlation in the winnings of players across successive periods, whereas there would be in a game of skill. So we know for sure that poker can’t be a game of pure chance.</p>
<h2>The tipping point</h2>
<p>But that still leaves the crucial question of whether skill dominates chance. To examine this we ran simulations comparing the performance of skilled and unskilled players. We found the tipping point: skilled players can expect to do better than their relatively unskilled counterparts at least three quarters of the time after 1,471 hands have been played.</p>
<p>In other words, poker becomes a game of skill after around 1,500 hands. To put this into perspective, most online players are likely to play 1,500 hands in 19 to 25 hours – and less than that if they play multiple tables at the same time.</p>
<p>Of course, devoted players everywhere might feel inclined to celebrate this revelation. They can bask in the satisfaction of knowing the game they love demands and rewards genuine proficiency and that in the end talent and guile will usually triumph over blind luck.</p>
<h2>Legal implications</h2>
<p>But the issue is about more than validation and bragging rights. You might well wonder why researchers are spending their time formulating equations rooted in the myriad complexities of Texas Hold ‘Em. The reason? Whether poker is viewed as a game of chance or a game of skill has potentially major legal implications.</p>
<p>Doubts surrounding poker’s claim to being a game of skill have shaped legislation for years. Players in the UK currently pay no tax on their winnings, which is good news for everyone from the most modest online tyro to the likes of writer and TV presenter Victoria Coren Mitchell, whose career earnings on the professional circuit <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-27101216">exceed £1.5m</a>.</p>
<p>In some countries what are perceived to be games of chance are subject to much tougher jurisdiction: in most US states, for example, online poker has been essentially illegal since the passing of the 2006 <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/31/subtitle-IV/chapter-53/subchapter-IV">Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act</a>.</p>
<p>All of this could change if policymakers take heed of these findings that show the opposite. Even without them, the American legal system has already argued the case several times over, with judgements upheld, overturned and upheld again. Perhaps fittingly, there’s an awful lot of money at stake and we can expect the debate to rumble on, as new evidence comes to light.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/39224/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dennie van Dolder receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council via the Network for Integrated Behavioural Sciences (award n. ES/K002201/1). The present research also benefited from support through the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (VICI NWO Grant 453-06-001).</span></em></p>New research reveals the relationship between luck and skill in winning at poker.Dennie van Dolder, Research Fellow in Economics, University of NottinghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/51392012-02-07T02:46:53Z2012-02-07T02:46:53ZExplainer: does luck exist?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/7385/original/3jw3pphg-1328484779.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">When it comes to being "fortunate", context is king.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">kaibara87</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Some people seem born lucky. Everything they touch turns to gold. Others are dogged by misfortune. </p>
<p>It’s not just people who might be lucky or unlucky – it can be single acts. When the ball hits a post in soccer, the commentators often say the striker was unlucky. We sometimes argue whether an act was lucky or not. I might say your pool shot was lucky. “Not luck; skill”, you might reply.</p>
<p>Is any of this talk sensible? Is there really such a thing as luck? Do some people have more of it than others (just as some people are better at pool than others)? I think there is a perfectly reasonable way of making sense of talk about luck. But there is no such thing as luck. It isn’t a property, like mass, or an object. Rather, to talk about luck is to talk about how things might easily have gone. </p>
<p>This view entails that no-one has luck. We can’t truly say of someone they’re lucky, meaning they are the kind of person to whom lucky things can be expected to happen.</p>
<p>It has sometimes been suggested that luck exists only if a certain interpretation of <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-quantum-physics-570">quantum mechanics</a> is true: if causality is not “deterministic”. If <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Determinism">physical determinism</a> is true then every event that occurs is entirely predictable (in principle), by someone who knows enough about the universe and its laws.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/7386/original/ch58p47q-1328484930.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/7386/original/ch58p47q-1328484930.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/7386/original/ch58p47q-1328484930.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/7386/original/ch58p47q-1328484930.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/7386/original/ch58p47q-1328484930.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/7386/original/ch58p47q-1328484930.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/7386/original/ch58p47q-1328484930.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/7386/original/ch58p47q-1328484930.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">cinnamon_girl</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>If indeterministic physics is true, then such predictability is not possible: no one, no matter how much they know, can predict every event that happens, even in principle. </p>
<p>I don’t know which interpretation of quantum mechanics is true, but it seems unlikely to me that we need to settle that debate to decide whether some things are lucky. It seems obvious to me that the person who was hit by lightning (on a clear day, if you like) was unlucky, and the person who wins the lotto is lucky.</p>
<p>Here’s how I understand luck. I think something is lucky (or unlucky) for a person if two things are true of it: it matters (somehow) to them, and it might easily not have happened. The second condition needs some explanation. </p>
<p>To say that something might easily not have happened is to say that, given how things were at the time just before, the event might well not have occurred. We might think of this in terms of replaying the event. If I set up the pool table again and ask you to retake the shot, we can discover whether your shot was luck or skill. We will need to do it a few times: you might get lucky twice, but you very unlikely to be lucky ten times in a row. </p>
<p>If every time you try (roughly) the same shot, you sink it I will have to concede: that’s skill, not luck. But if you can’t do it again, you were lucky the first time. Similarly, someone was unlucky to be hit by lightning if it is true that were they to be in similar conditions again, they (probably) would not be hit by lightning. If, on the other hand, lightning is so prevalent around here that any time anyone goes out they get hit, then they weren’t unlucky.</p>
<p>If this is right, there can’t be lucky or unlucky people. At least, there can’t be people who have the property of having lucky events happen to them. Whether I am lucky in doing something depends on how skillful I am at doing things like that. If I’m really good at it, then I am less lucky at succeeding than if I am bad at it. </p>
<p>So, roughly, the more often something happens to someone, the less luck is involved. Of course someone can be lucky or unlucky twice: lightning can strike twice. But the person who is lucky twice, or more, is not a lucky person: their past luck doesn’t give us any reason to expect luck in their future.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ZN-aErnj7Q4?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Is this good luck, or just physics?</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There is one way in which we can say that someone is lucky or unlucky. Rather than compare an event to what we would expect to happen, given roughly the same circumstances, we might compare a person’s circumstances or their traits to what is statistically normal for a group. Using this kind of measure, we can say that someone born severely handicapped is unlucky and someone born into wealth is lucky. </p>
<p>What is the relevant group for this kind of comparison? I don’t think there is a single right answer here: it will depend on the context and our aims. For some purposes, a narrower group might be relevant, and for some, a broader. This entails that the same person might be said to be both lucky and unlucky. </p>
<p>Think of the contemporary Australian who loses her job, through no fault of her own. We might say she is unlucky, comparing her to other contemporary Australians. But compared to humanity as a whole, she might be lucky if she remains able to feed and house herself.</p>
<p>This same kind of context sensitivity and relativism is characteristic of luck in events as well. The same event can be lucky and unlucky for a person. Think of someone who misses her flight and takes another one, which then crashes. She is unlucky to be involved in a plane crash, given that she might easily have been on the earlier flight. But if she is the only survivor, she might be lucky, given that everyone else died. </p>
<p>That’s why we can find ourselves saying of someone who has broken three ribs and both legs that they are lucky.</p>
<p><br>
<em>Neil Levy is the author of Hard Luck: How Luck Undermines Free Will and Moral Responsibility.</em> </p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/5139/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Neil Levy receives funding from the Australian Research Foundation and the Templeton Foundation.</span></em></p>Some people seem born lucky. Everything they touch turns to gold. Others are dogged by misfortune. It’s not just people who might be lucky or unlucky – it can be single acts. When the ball hits a post…Neil Levy, Head of Neuroethics, Florey Institute of Neuroscience and Mental HealthLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.