tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/megacities-11587/articlesMegacities – The Conversation2023-12-12T17:30:58Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2183042023-12-12T17:30:58Z2023-12-12T17:30:58ZRiver deltas are threatened by more than climate change – leaving hundreds of millions of people at risk<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564467/original/file-20231208-19-8nst7h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C976%2C667&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Irrawaddy delta, Myanmar.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/river-delta-irrawady-that-flows-north-1013252395">lavizzara/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Perilously situated between rising sea levels and pressures from upstream lie coastal river deltas and their roughly half a billion inhabitants. These regions have played an important role in societal development since the last ice age, offering flat, fertile lands with abundant freshwater which are ideal for agriculture.</p>
<p>In recent times, coastal river deltas have become hubs of the global shipping trade, giving rise to fast-growing megacities such as Dhaka, Cairo and Shanghai. But these areas are now <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1126/science.aab3574">under threat</a>. And not all of the blame can be placed on climate change. </p>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378023001024">recent research</a> reveals that 49 deltas around the world, including the Nile, Mekong, and Mississippi are facing growing risks under all of the <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-shared-socioeconomic-pathways-explore-future-climate-change/">IPCC’s future scenarios</a> for climate change and development. </p>
<p>Our analysis shows that certain risks are more critical to some deltas than others. These risks include land subsidence, increasing population density, intensive agriculture, ineffective governance and a lack of capacity to adapt.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An aerial photograph of Dhaka." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564311/original/file-20231207-25-8vz549.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564311/original/file-20231207-25-8vz549.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564311/original/file-20231207-25-8vz549.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564311/original/file-20231207-25-8vz549.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564311/original/file-20231207-25-8vz549.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564311/original/file-20231207-25-8vz549.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564311/original/file-20231207-25-8vz549.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Dhaka was built on the Ganges river delta 400 years ago.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/dhaka-bangladesh-july-14-2023-birdseye-2331732691">Sk Hasan Ali/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>Sinking land</h2>
<p>Sea level rise and its associated impacts, such as salinisation, are a key threat to deltas. But it’s not just the rising sea that creates such risks – deltas themselves <a href="https://theconversation.com/sea-levels-are-rising-fastest-in-big-cities-heres-why-157077">are sinking</a>. Our results show that land subsides as much as three times faster than sea level rise in deltas such as the Mekong in Vietnam and the Krishna and Godavari in India. </p>
<p>All land rises and falls as the Earth’s crust slowly changes shape. But, when land consists of a sediment pile hundreds of metres deep, as in some deltas, the process can happen much faster. The sediment particles compact together under the weight of everything on top (including cities), and when the water, or sometimes oil and gas, that naturally fills the spaces between particles is pumped out, the grains collapse on top of each other.</p>
<p>Land subsidence leads to relative sea level rise (the combination of the sea level rising plus the land sinking). This process can turn croplands salty, cause widespread flooding and, in extreme cases, lead to the loss of entire coastal areas. Research suggests that <a href="https://theconversation.com/indonesias-capital-jakarta-is-sinking-heres-how-to-stop-this-170269">around 25%</a> of the Indonesian capital Jakarta, which is built on low-lying land next to the sea, will be submerged in 2050.</p>
<h2>Population density and crop land use</h2>
<p>The Nile, Ganges and Pearl deltas are also among the most densely populated places in the world. China’s Pearl delta, in particular, is jammed with the megacities of Guangzhou, Dongguan and Foshan, which are together home to over 30 million people. Many deltas will become even more densely populated and urbanised over the coming decades.</p>
<p>Urban development prevents natural river flooding processes from <a href="https://theconversation.com/river-deltas-are-drowning-threatening-hundreds-of-millions-of-people-125088">delivering sediment</a> to deltas and maintaining the land’s elevation above the river channel and sea. This can cause delta land to sink relative to sea level at an even faster pace.</p>
<p>Deltas are also hugely important for food production. Irrigated agriculture occupies almost all of the Red delta in Vietnam, the Po in Italy and the Yangtze in China. If groundwater is pumped from aquifers to irrigate crops, then again these deltas will subside much faster.</p>
<p>Disrupted food production in these places could have dire consequences in the future – and not just for delta inhabitants. Vietnam is the world’s second-largest rice exporter and <a href="https://publicpartnershipdata.azureedge.net/gef/GEFProjectVersions/670110b7-0491-e911-a837-000d3a37557b_CEOEndorsement.pdf">almost all of that rice</a> comes from the Mekong delta.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Aerial view of ripe rice fields in the Mekong delta countryside." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564523/original/file-20231208-17-j63vqr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564523/original/file-20231208-17-j63vqr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564523/original/file-20231208-17-j63vqr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564523/original/file-20231208-17-j63vqr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564523/original/file-20231208-17-j63vqr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564523/original/file-20231208-17-j63vqr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564523/original/file-20231208-17-j63vqr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Almost all of that rice exported from Vietnam comes from the Mekong delta.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/aerial-view-ripe-rice-fields-noon-2216678845">Huy Thoai/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>Capacity to adapt</h2>
<p>Delta countries have options when it comes to managing many of the risks they face – they are not simply at the mercy of large global greenhouse gas emitters. However, the readiness, capacity and effectiveness of governments to adapt to risks is low in many deltas. </p>
<p>This is particularly true for the Irrawaddy delta in Myanmar and African deltas including the Congo, Limpopo and Zambezi. The per capita GDP of the countries in these deltas is among the lowest in the world, as are indicators of <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/worldwide-governance-indicators">government effectiveness</a> and <a href="https://gain.nd.edu/">readiness for adaptation</a>. </p>
<p>International support and cooperation can and should play a supportive role here. But this is no simple task. Developing countries require a substantial amount of funding to implement necessary adaptation measures. In fact, the adaption finance needs of developing countries are now <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/adaptation-gap-report-2023">ten to 18 times</a> as big as international public finance flows (funds that move between countries typically with the aim of supporting development).</p>
<p>And that’s just for adapting to climate change. The array of delta risks revealed by our analysis stretch far beyond the climate and require coordination from local to global scales.</p>
<h2>What’s the solution?</h2>
<p>Solutions must be developed that consider all of these risks. Efforts to limit climate change remain urgent, as does the regulation of groundwater and fossil fuel extraction from deltas. </p>
<p>Cities can be <a href="https://watersensitivecities.org.au/flood-resilience-2/">designed to be more resilient</a> against floods, while agricultural practices can be adapted to cope with risks. This may involve embracing methods such as aquaculture, cultivating salt-tolerant crops, or exploring <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-making-soils-saltier-forcing-many-farmers-to-find-new-livelihoods-106048">alternative farming approaches</a> that can accommodate flooding and delta sedimentation processes.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-making-soils-saltier-forcing-many-farmers-to-find-new-livelihoods-106048">Climate change is making soils saltier, forcing many farmers to find new livelihoods</a>
</strong>
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<p>Engineered solutions, such as sea walls, will be required where other strategies are impossible. But these should not become the default approach. Above all, the development of solutions must be inclusive, involving not only experts but also local people, propelled by urgently needed government action and finance.</p>
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<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Murray Scown receives funding from The Swedish Research Council for Sustainable Development (Formas). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Frances Eleanor Dunn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The world’s coastal deltas are home to hundreds of thousands of people – but they’re now under threat.Murray Scown, Associate Senior Lecturer in Geography, Lund UniversityFrances Eleanor Dunn, Assistant professor, Utrecht UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1380922020-05-14T21:06:01Z2020-05-14T21:06:01ZMegacity slums are incubators of disease – but coronavirus response isn’t helping the billion people who live in them<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/334830/original/file-20200513-156651-1nldcyf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=60%2C0%2C6720%2C4466&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A market area in Dhaka, the Bangladeshi capital, crowded with people despite the coronavirus pandemic, May 12, 2020. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/makeshift-stalls-at-a-market-along-a-pedestrian-area-of-an-news-photo/1212895418?adppopup=true">hmed Salahuddin/NurPhoto via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Having <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51768274">ravaged</a> some of the <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/new-york-coronavirus-antibody-tests-2645820969.html">world’s wealthiest cities</a>, the coronavirus pandemic is now spreading into the megacities of developing countries. Sprawling urban areas in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/25/rio-favelas-coronavirus-brazil">Brazil</a>, <a href="https://thecorrespondent.com/378/why-social-distancing-wont-work-for-us/50039243100-5409cfb5">Nigeria</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-closes-in-on-rohingya-refugees-in-bangladeshs-cramped-unprepared-camps-135147">Bangladesh</a> are all seeing COVID-19 infections rise rapidly. </p>
<p>We study the <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0956247814533627">fragility</a> and <a href="https://www.citylab.com/life/2012/11/making-our-cities-more-resilient-cant-wait/3758/">resilience</a> of such cities and their urban peripheries, with the aim of encouraging data-driven policy decisions. Given its deadly trajectory in marginalized communities of hard-hit <a href="https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2020/05/08/black-and-latino-new-yorkers-get-vast-majority-of-social-distancing-summonses-1283223">New York</a> and <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/c26434a2-5337-45e9-a94b-2c33fd55306a">London</a>, coronavirus may well devastate much poorer cities. </p>
<p>Particularly concerning are the <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-an-existential-threat-to-africa-and-her-crowded-slums-135829">slum areas</a> that are home to roughly a billion people – <a href="https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/report/2019/goal-11/">one in seven people on Earth</a>. Characterized by insecure property rights, low-quality housing, limited basic services and poor sanitation, these <a href="https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/interview/2020/04/01/coronavirus-cities-urban-poor">informal settlements</a> aggregate risk factors that accelerate the <a href="https://www.weforum.org/covid-action-platform/articles/cities-crowding-coronavirus-hotspots">spread of infection</a>. </p>
<p>Yet, our research finds, many residents of slums and squatter settlements are not getting the help they need to survive the coronavirus pandemic.</p>
<h2>Density and poverty</h2>
<p>Overcrowding is one reason slums are known <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4481042/">incubators of disease</a>. Informal settlements are typically <a href="https://academic.oup.com/oxrep/article-abstract/33/3/496/3926163?redirectedFrom=PDF">10 times denser</a> than neighboring areas of the same city. </p>
<p>The Dharavi slum in central Mumbai, for example, has some <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/concerns-mumbai-dharavi-slum-reports-covid-19-cases-200403053646046.html">97,000 residents per square mile</a>, compared to <a href="https://www.timesnownews.com/india/article/where-world-most-dense-populated-cities-mumbai/61774">11,500 people per square mile</a> elsewhere in the city. It is far harder to practice physical distancing, at home or on the street, in such close quarters. </p>
<p>Most of the world’s poorest urban neighborhoods <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/21681376.2016.1229130">additionally lack</a> clean potable water and a private bathroom, making lifesaving practices like hand-washing <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/18-06-2019-1-in-3-people-globally-do-not-have-access-to-safe-drinking-water-unicef-who">a challenge</a>. </p>
<p>To get to work – a necessity for those with very low incomes and no savings – many people in slums travel jammed together in vans and buses over long distances that are <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7118651/">perfect vectors</a> for disease.</p>
<p>For several reasons – among them little access to health care – people living in informal settlements also suffer disproportionately from <a href="https://medicine.yale.edu/news-article/23734/">underlying health conditions</a> such as obesity, diabetes and hypertension, according to a <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/series/slum-health">2016 special edition of the Lancet on slums</a>. All of these problems can exacerbate respiratory illnesses such as COVID-19.</p>
<h2>Rio de Janeiro</h2>
<p>In Brazil, which is fast becoming a global <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/05/brazil-coronavirus-hot-spot-bolsonaro/611401/">COVID-19 epicenter</a>, at least 1.5 million of Rio de Janeiro’s <a href="https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room/2185-news-agency/releases-en/25283-ibge-divulga-as-estimativas-da-populacao-dos-municipios-para-2020">6.7 million residents</a> live in the city’s 1,000 “favelas,” or slum settlements. </p>
<p>Many favela residents <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshualaw/2020/04/29/how-the-coronavirus-is-impacting-favelas-in-rio-de-janeiro/#208f463f3ee3">lack piped water or the resources even to buy soap</a>. But Brazil’s national government, which denies the severity of its outbreak, is <a href="https://theconversation.com/just-like-trump-brazils-bolsonaro-puts-the-economy-ahead-of-his-people-during-coronavirus-136351">offering very little pandemic aid</a>. That’s left community organizations to deliver <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshualaw/2020/04/29/how-the-coronavirus-is-impacting-favelas-in-rio-de-janeiro/#208f463f3ee3">food and hygiene products</a> to Rio’s poorest.</p>
<p>Hundreds of favela residents have already tested positive for COVID-19. But with <a href="https://g1.globo.com/rj/rio-de-janeiro/noticia/2020/05/10/hospitais-particulares-do-rj-estao-com-90percent-dos-leitos-de-uti-ocupados-associacao-preve-colapso-em-menos-de-15-dias.ghtml">90% of intensive care beds occupied</a>, those experiencing severe illness have little chance of getting proper emergency care. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/334827/original/file-20200513-156675-1mdfkbr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=163%2C163%2C5380%2C3526&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/334827/original/file-20200513-156675-1mdfkbr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334827/original/file-20200513-156675-1mdfkbr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334827/original/file-20200513-156675-1mdfkbr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334827/original/file-20200513-156675-1mdfkbr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334827/original/file-20200513-156675-1mdfkbr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334827/original/file-20200513-156675-1mdfkbr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A volunteer disinfects Rio’s Santa Marta favela, Brazil, April 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/volunteers-disinfect-a-road-at-the-santa-marta-favela-in-news-photo/1210468814?adppopup=true">Mauro Pimintel/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>The economic fallout of COVID-19 is also devastating for poorer people. In Rio’s favelas, where residents typically make <a href="https://valor.globo.com/brasil/noticia/2020/01/24/favelas-tem-poder-de-compra-de-r-1198-bi.ghtml">less than US$5 a day</a>, over <a href="https://exame.abril.com.br/economia/renda-cai-para-7-em-cada-10-familias-nas-favelas/">70% of households</a> report an income decline since the coronavirus outbreak, according to a survey supported by the Locomotiva Institute and the Unified Center for Favelas.</p>
<h2>Lagos and Dhaka</h2>
<p>Fighting coronavirus is <a href="https://theconversation.com/lagos-size-and-slums-will-make-stopping-the-spread-of-covid-19-a-tough-task-134723">proving difficult in Lagos</a>, the largest city in Nigeria and its COVID-19 epicenter. The city, Africa’s biggest, is home to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-20/lagos-building-luxury-homes-in-face-of-affordable-housing-crisis">an estimated 26 million people</a>. Nearly three-quarters of them live in one of Lagos’s 100 slums. </p>
<p>A large proportion of those in slums subsist hand-to-mouth, <a href="https://ng.boell.org/sites/default/files/uploads/2017/02/budgit_final_report_30.1.17.pdf">working in the informal sector</a> as street vendors, waste recyclers, artisans and the like. Such jobs offer no health insurance or pensions – no basic social safety net. </p>
<p>As in Rio, many informal workers in Lagos have been deprived of even this meager income during the capital’s <a href="https://nairametrics.com/2020/05/10/lagos-state-threatens-to-revert-to-full-lock-down/">intermittent coronavirus lockdowns</a>. Staying home to survive a pandemic <a href="https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/crp/2020/03/31/covid-19-in-africa-know-your-epidemic-act-on-its-politics/">is only an option if you can afford it</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/334831/original/file-20200513-156665-vy7cwy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/334831/original/file-20200513-156665-vy7cwy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/334831/original/file-20200513-156665-vy7cwy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334831/original/file-20200513-156665-vy7cwy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334831/original/file-20200513-156665-vy7cwy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334831/original/file-20200513-156665-vy7cwy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334831/original/file-20200513-156665-vy7cwy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334831/original/file-20200513-156665-vy7cwy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The scene in Ojodu-Berger, outside Lagos, May 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/people-wears-face-masks-in-compliance-with-state-directive-news-photo/1211735038?adppopup=true">PIUS UTOMI EKPEI/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Similar crises are playing out in many poor megacities worldwide. In Bangladesh, for example, COVID-19 is <a href="https://www.dhakatribune.com/bangladesh/2020/05/02/coronavirus-bangladesh-records-5-more-deaths-another-552-new-cases-in-24-hours">spreading quickly through the capital of Dhaka</a>, home to almost 9 million people, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2018/mar/21/people-pouring-dhaka-bursting-sewers-overpopulation-bangladesh">40% of whom live in slums</a>. </p>
<p>The Bangladeshi capital has about 80 public intensive care units, <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6549198/">far fewer</a> than required. Nationwide, just over 190 ICUs serve Bangladesh’s population of 161 million – 47 times less per capita than New York City after it surged its ICU capacity. </p>
<h2>Lockdowns and curfews</h2>
<p>Some developing countries acted early to prevent outbreaks and appear to have dodged the first wave of COVID-19. With memory of past pandemics fresh, governments, businesses and civil societies in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/03/world/asia/coronavirus-spread-where-why.html">Sierra Leone, Uganda and Vietnam</a> conducted extensive testing and contact tracing and to <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11524-020-00438-6">bolster their primary health care systems</a>, combined them with targeted education campaigns.</p>
<p>Yet, our research finds many governments are responding to coronavirus outbreaks in slums in one of two ways: with a heavy fist or with neglect. </p>
<p>In city after city, we see <a href="https://www.voanews.com/covid-19-pandemic/militaries-enforce-coronavirus-quarantine-experts-warn-escalating-violence">strict lockdowns imposed</a> on poor populations without regard to the factors that could impede compliance. Where food handouts are provided, supplies are <a href="https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2020/04/15/kenya-africa-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic-unemployment-sevenzo-pkg-intl-ldn-vpx.cnn">generally insufficient</a>. </p>
<p>People who violate quarantine – by trying to work, say – <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-versus-democracy-5-countries-where-emergency-powers-risk-abuse-135278">risk police violence</a>. Conflicts have <a href="https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/interview/2020/04/01/coronavirus-cities-urban-poor">erupted over curfew enforcement</a> in cities across <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-02/locked-in-cages-beaten-and-shamed-virus-laws-lead-to-abuses">Kenya, India and South Africa</a>.</p>
<p>Such tactics risk undermining residents’ already low faith in government, just when <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10810730.2013.840696">public trust</a> is most needed to ensure compliance with health guidance. </p>
<p>State neglect also allows the criminal groups to consolidate their influence in slum areas. From Brazil to Mexico, <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/04/27/mexican-cartels-are-providing-covid-19-assistance-why-thats-not-surprising/">cartels</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/25/brazil-rio-gangs-coronavirus">gangs</a> and <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-mafia-poised-to-exploit-vulnerable-people-during-covid-19-pandemic-1198083%204">organized crime</a> are handing out food and medical supplies, deepening their grip on power.</p>
<h2>A better way</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11524-020-00438-6">new Journal of Urban Health study</a> recommends that developing countries facing infectious disease outbreaks prioritize getting water, food and sanitation materials to their poorest residents. </p>
<p><a href="https://blogs.worldbank.org/impactevaluations/what-can-low-income-countries-do-provide-relief-poor-and-vulnerable-during-covid">Development economists</a> also advise making <a href="https://www.devex.com/news/cash-transfers-lead-the-social-assistance-response-to-covid-19-96949">cash payments</a> to the <a href="https://www.marketplace.org/2020/04/09/covid-19-low-income-help-cash-transfers-esther-duflo/">poorest households</a> and halting evictions, both measures taken to ease the coronavirus crisis in advanced countries. </p>
<p>To work in areas where trust in government is low, <a href="https://phys.org/news/2020-05-left-covid-settlements.html">all these measures</a> must be underpinned by a strong communications program involving credible neighborhood leaders, <a href="https://theconversation.com/clear-consistent-health-messaging-critical-to-stemming-epidemics-and-limiting-coronavirus-deaths-134529">radio, social media, TV ads and phone messages</a>. Groups like <a href="https://www.devex.com/news/opinion-slums-are-the-next-front-line-in-the-fight-against-the-coronavirus-97088">UN-Habitat</a> and <a href="https://www.iied.org/covid-19-front-line-where-crisis-meets-normal">Slum Dwellers International</a> are working with local organizations in slum communities to reach people in places where assistance is most needed.</p>
<p>Global pandemics require <a href="https://thecityfix.com/blog/cities-battered-covid-19-remain-key-recovery-ensure-investments-well-spent-schuyler-null-talia-rubnitz-hillary-smith/">global responses</a>. But places like Rio, Lagos and Dhaka face different challenges in the coronavirus fight than, say, New York City. </p>
<p>The public health response must look different, too.</p>
<p>[<em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/weekly-highlights-61?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=weeklysmart">You can get our highlights each weekend</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/138092/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Muggah has received research funding from the Canadian, Norwegian and UK governments as well as International Development Research Council, Luminate, Open Society Foundation, Social Science Research Council, and Tinker Foundation. He is the co-founder of Brazil's Igarape Institute, a principal of the SecDev Group and author of "Terra Incognita: 100 Maps to Survive the Next 100 Years."</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Florida is a distinguished fellow at New York University's Schack Institute of Real Estate and co-founder of the news site CityLab. He is author of "The New Urban Crisis." </span></em></p>COVID-19 is spreading fast through not only the world’s richest cities but also its poorest, ravaging slum areas where risk factors like overcrowding and poverty accelerate disease transmission.Robert Muggah, Lecturer, Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio)Richard Florida, Professor, University of TorontoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1305402020-02-06T19:01:20Z2020-02-06T19:01:20ZAs big cities get even bigger, some residents are being left behind<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313661/original/file-20200205-149778-1k0f2mv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3784%2C2626&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Cromo Digital/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/0/B7616AB91C66CDCFCA25827800183B7B?Opendocument">concentration of growth in major cities</a>, driven by the knowledge economy and the changing nature of work, <a href="https://theconversation.com/our-big-cities-are-engines-of-inequality-so-how-do-we-fix-that-69775">may also increase their social inequality</a>. Our <a href="https://protect-au.mimecast.com/s/I_pYC6X1nohrAK13spaJUA?domain=event.crowdcompass.com">research</a> looked at cities in the US and Australia. We compared measures of the knowledge economy and social vulnerability of their metropolitan areas and plotted them together.</p>
<p>Cities with above-average knowledge economies and below-average levels of social vulnerability are better placed to cope with the dual challenges of technological change and social inequality. Australia has only two cities in this category. </p>
<p>Australia’s biggest cities score high on knowledge economy capacity but also have high levels of social vulnerability. And some cities score poorly on both measures. This makes them doubly vulnerable to economic change and social inequality.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-knowledge-city-index-sydney-takes-top-spot-but-canberra-punches-above-its-weight-81101">The Knowledge City Index: Sydney takes top spot but Canberra punches above its weight</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Winners and losers in the one city</h2>
<p>One factor in these contrasting trends of concentrated growth and rising social vulnerability is the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-amazons-decision-to-retrain-a-third-of-its-employees-means-for-the-future-of-work-120474">changing nature of work</a>. Cities are the site of the <a href="https://www.weforum.org/focus/fourth-industrial-revolution">Fourth Industrial Revolution</a> as the world economy clusters in major centres. It’s driven by the benefits of <a href="https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/glossary/agglomeration-economies/">agglomeration</a> – the productivity and efficiency gains from having many producers and people located near one another. </p>
<p>Already, 600 cities generate 60% of <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/01/the-anatomy-of-a-smart-city/">global economic output</a>. The world has 21 mega-cities of over 10 million people compared to <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/01/the-anatomy-of-a-smart-city/">three in 1975</a>. By 2040, <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/01/the-anatomy-of-a-smart-city/">65% of the world population</a> will live in cities. </p>
<p>In the US, jobs were lost all over the country during the <a href="https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/great_recession_of_200709">Great Recession</a> of 2007-09. But the recovery is concentrated in 25 urban cores. Some <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-work/the-future-of-work-in-america-people-and-places-today-and-tomorrow">60% of US job growth</a> is expected to take place in these centres. </p>
<p>This over-concentration of employment opportunities may lead to social inequality and vulnerability within these cities. At the same time, other older and smaller cities have <a href="https://www.citylab.com/life/2017/09/the-overlooked-cities-of-the-rust-belt/538479/">struggled to revamp their economies</a>.</p>
<p>In Australia, too, the top five <a href="http://theconversation.com/the-knowledge-city-index-sydney-takes-top-spot-but-canberra-punches-above-its-weight-81101">capital cities</a> are growing bigger. Growth is <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/0/B7616AB91C66CDCFCA25827800183B7B?Opendocument">dominated by Sydney and Melbourne</a>, but <a href="https://theconversation.com/rapid-growth-is-widening-melbournes-social-and-economic-divide-117244">economic and social inequalities</a> are <a href="https://theconversation.com/our-big-cities-are-engines-of-inequality-so-how-do-we-fix-that-69775">increasing</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/rapid-growth-is-widening-melbournes-social-and-economic-divide-117244">Rapid growth is widening Melbourne's social and economic divide</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Despite economic growth, homelessness is increasing in both <a href="https://theconversation.com/homelessness-soars-in-our-biggest-cities-driven-by-rising-inequality-since-2001-117833">Australian</a> and <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/california-homeless-crisis-austin-rep-chip-roy">US cities</a>. For some US cities such as Los Angeles, Seattle and San Francisco, it is at a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jun/04/los-angeles-homeless-population-city-county">tipping point</a>. These same cities are home to the most educated and richest citizens too.</p>
<h2>How do US and Australian cities compare?</h2>
<p>Combining various socioeconomic and demographic data (including <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/census">Australian Census</a>, <a href="https://www.census.gov/">US Census</a>, <a href="https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs">American Community Survey</a> and <a href="https://international.ipums.org/international/">IPUMS</a> data) at the metropolitan level, we created a Knowledge Cities Index (KCI) and Social Vulnerability Index (SVI). The chart below plots the KCI and SVI scores of 104 US metropolitan centres. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/312362/original/file-20200128-119984-njytew.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/312362/original/file-20200128-119984-njytew.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/312362/original/file-20200128-119984-njytew.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=327&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312362/original/file-20200128-119984-njytew.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=327&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312362/original/file-20200128-119984-njytew.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=327&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312362/original/file-20200128-119984-njytew.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312362/original/file-20200128-119984-njytew.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312362/original/file-20200128-119984-njytew.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Knowledge Cities Index (KCI) and Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) of US cities. Higher KCI is to the right of the average line, higher SVI is above the average line.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The middle two lines show the averages of these scores. Cities with higher knowledge city scores (right side of the line) and lower social vulnerability scores (below the line) are better placed to cope with the dual challenges of technological shift and social vulnerability. These cities include New York-Newark-Jersey City, Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, and Boston-Cambridge-Newton.</p>
<p>The chart below shows only two Australian cities – Brisbane and Adelaide – are in this category. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/312363/original/file-20200128-120030-xz4qcz.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/312363/original/file-20200128-120030-xz4qcz.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/312363/original/file-20200128-120030-xz4qcz.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312363/original/file-20200128-120030-xz4qcz.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312363/original/file-20200128-120030-xz4qcz.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312363/original/file-20200128-120030-xz4qcz.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312363/original/file-20200128-120030-xz4qcz.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312363/original/file-20200128-120030-xz4qcz.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Knowledge Cities Index (KCI) and Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) of Australian cities. Higher KCI is to the right of the average line, higher SVI is above the average line.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Cities with higher KCI scores but also higher SVI scores include Sydney, Melbourne, Canberra and Perth.</p>
<p>Some major US metro areas in this category are San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach and Washington-Arlington-Alexandria. These cities are doing well in terms of knowledge generation and innovation, but have greater inequality and social disparities among their residents. These cities need strategies and policies to make themselves more inclusive and resilient. </p>
<p>The benefit of agglomeration economics may concentrate and benefit knowledge workers while segregating them from the rest of the society and increasing inequality. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-did-the-rich-man-say-to-the-poor-man-why-spatial-inequality-in-australia-is-no-joke-73841">What did the rich man say to the poor man? Why spatial inequality in Australia is no joke</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The map below shows the concentration of knowledge industries in Sydney. Sydney CDB has the highest concentration for most of the knowledge industries, except high-tech manufacturing. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/312364/original/file-20200128-120039-1opbpv8.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/312364/original/file-20200128-120039-1opbpv8.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/312364/original/file-20200128-120039-1opbpv8.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312364/original/file-20200128-120039-1opbpv8.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312364/original/file-20200128-120039-1opbpv8.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312364/original/file-20200128-120039-1opbpv8.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312364/original/file-20200128-120039-1opbpv8.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312364/original/file-20200128-120039-1opbpv8.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Distribution of knowledge industries in Sydney metropolitan area.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Data: ABS, 2016</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We found some cities with very low KCI scores and high SVI scores. US examples include McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, Portland-South Portland and Memphis. In Australia, cities in this category include Sunshine Coast, Bunbury, Central Coast, Townsville and Gold Coast-Tweed Heads. </p>
<p>These cities are the worst off. Their lack of knowledge capacities and high social inequality make them highly susceptible to both technological shifts and social vulnerability. Solid strategies and policies are needed to increase the knowledge bases and improve the social conditions of these cities. </p>
<h2>What does this mean for policy?</h2>
<p>One suggested solution is <a href="https://theconversation.com/our-big-cities-are-engines-of-inequality-so-how-do-we-fix-that-69775">polycentric cities</a>. But this approach depends on overcoming the challenge of coordinating transport with land uses. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/our-big-cities-are-engines-of-inequality-so-how-do-we-fix-that-69775">Our big cities are engines of inequality, so how do we fix that?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The knowledge economy is increasingly important for cities to compete in the age of automation. But it can also compound the risk of increased social exclusion or vulnerability. Affected cities may then become less capable of withstanding impacts on other frontiers of social change. </p>
<p>The belligerent rate of automation may make the situation worse. Despite its <a href="https://theconversation.com/dont-automate-the-fun-out-of-life-88681">cost-efficiencies</a>, automation has other human costs. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-the-end-of-the-checkout-signals-a-dire-future-for-those-without-the-right-skills-129894">Vital Signs: the end of the checkout signals a dire future for those without the right skills</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>These impacts require <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-future-of-the-us-workforce-will-rely-on-ai-but-dont-count-human-workers-out-just-yet-124241">policy intervention</a>.
The two indices of our study examine both the urban opportunities and the downsides of inequality and social vulnerability that the knowledge economy creates. The policy challenge will be how to make socially vulnerable populations more resilient to the changing nature of work and reduce its negative impacts. </p>
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<em>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-fourth-industrial-revolution-could-lead-to-a-dark-future-125897">The fourth industrial revolution could lead to a dark future</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/130540/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr. Sajeda Tuli receives funding from Australian-American Fulbright Commission. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shakil Bin Kashem does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The knowledge economy creates clear winners and losers in the big cities whose growth it drives. Many Australian and US cities with strong knowledge economies have high levels of social vulnerability.Sajeda Tuli, Fulbright Scholar, Institute for Governance and Policy Analysis, University of CanberraShakil Bin Kashem, Teaching Assistant Professor, Geography & Geographic Information Science, University of Illinois at Urbana-ChampaignLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1263062019-11-14T12:59:24Z2019-11-14T12:59:24ZUrban unrest propels global wave of protests<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301580/original/file-20191113-77291-1nxmrnz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C6%2C4176%2C2792&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Chilean police clash with anti-government demonstrators during a protest in Santiago, Chile, Nov. 12, 2019. Santiago is one of a dozen cities worldwide to see mass unrest in recent months.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Chile-Protests/349587027bf24a9d9cb1d90de10bf884/11/0">AP Photo/Esteban Felix</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/why-are-there-so-many-protests-across-the-globe-right-now/2019/10/24/5ced176c-f69b-11e9-ad8b-85e2aa00b5ce_story.html">Numerous anti-government protests</a> have paralyzed cities across the globe for months, from La Paz, Bolivia, to Santiago, Chile, and Monrovia, Liberia, to Beirut.</p>
<p>Each protest in this worldwide wave of unrest has its own local dynamic and cause. But they also <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/10/25/global-wave-protests-share-themes-economic-anger-political-hopelessness/">share certain characteristics</a>: Fed up with <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-50123743">rising inequality, corruption and slow economic growth</a>, angry citizens worldwide are demanding an end to corruption and the restoration of a democratic rule of law.</p>
<p>It is no accident, as <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/central-america-caribbean/2019-10-29/why-latin-america-was-primed-explode">Foreign Affairs recently observed</a>, that Latin America – which has seen the most countries explode into the longest-lasting violent protests – has the slowest regional growth in the world, with only 0.2% expected in 2019. Latin America is also the world’s <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/inequality-is-getting-worse-in-latin-america-here-s-how-to-fix-it/">region</a> with the most inequality.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/10/world/americas/evo-morales-bolivia.html">Bolivia’s once-powerful president</a>, Evo Morales – whose support was strongest in rural areas – was forced out on Nov. 11 by a military response to mass urban unrest after alleged electoral fraud. </p>
<p>In October, <a href="https://theconversation.com/lebanon-uprising-unites-people-across-faiths-defying-deep-sectarian-divides-125772">Lebanon’s prime minister</a> also resigned after mass protests. </p>
<p>One under-covered factor in these demonstrations, I would observe as a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Dv_-dxQAAAAJ&hl=enhttps://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Dv_-dxQAAAAJ&hl=en">scholar of migration</a>, is domestic, rural-to-urban migration. All these capital cities gripped by protest have huge populations of desperately poor formerly rural people <a href="https://www.cairn.info/mediterra-2018-english--9782724623956-page-101.htm">pushed out of the countryside</a> and into the city by <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-making-soils-saltier-forcing-many-farmers-to-find-new-livelihoods-106048">climate change</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-struggling-agricultural-sector-what-went-wrong-20-years-ago-45171">national policies</a> that hurt small farmers or a <a href="https://theconversation.com/who-is-responsible-for-migrants-108388">global trade system that impoverishes local agriculture</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301593/original/file-20191113-77326-6t9jol.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301593/original/file-20191113-77326-6t9jol.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301593/original/file-20191113-77326-6t9jol.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301593/original/file-20191113-77326-6t9jol.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301593/original/file-20191113-77326-6t9jol.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301593/original/file-20191113-77326-6t9jol.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301593/original/file-20191113-77326-6t9jol.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301593/original/file-20191113-77326-6t9jol.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Backers of ousted Bolivian president Evo Morales march in La Paz, Bolivia, Nov. 13, 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Bolivia-Elections/bf7e9e9d1762473c952642cba48435d8/2/0">AP Photo/Natacha Pisarenko</a></span>
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<h2>Rapid urban growth</h2>
<p>Cities worldwide have been growing at an <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/jul/12/urban-sprawl-how-cities-grow-change-sustainability-urban-age">unsustainable pace</a> over the past seven decades. </p>
<p>In 1950, the New York metropolitan area and Tokyo were the world’s only megacities – cities with more than 10 million people. By 1995, 14 megacities had emerged. Today, there are 25. Of the 7.6 billion people in the world, 4.2 billion, or 55%, <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/en/news/population/2018-revision-of-world-urbanization-prospects.html">live in cities and other urban settlements</a>. Another 2.5 billion people will <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/en/news/population/2018-revision-of-world-urbanization-prospects.html">move into cities in poor countries by 2050</a>, according to the United Nations. </p>
<p>Most modern megacities are in the <a href="https://qz.com/africa/688823/80-of-the-worlds-megacities-are-now-in-asia-latin-america-or-africa/">developing regions of Africa, Asia and Latin America</a>. There, natural population increases in cities are aggravated by surges in rural migrants in search of a better life. </p>
<p>What they find, instead, are sprawling <a href="https://www.insightcrime.org/news/analysis/south-america-drug-slums-jurisdiction-organized-crime/">informal settlements</a>, frequently called <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-humanitarian-summit-urban-crisis-idUSKCN0Y80GA">urban slums</a>. </p>
<p>These marginalized parts of cities in the developing world – called “favelas” in Brazil, “bidonvilles” in Haiti and “villas miserias” in Argentina – <a href="https://blogs.unicef.org/east-asia-pacific/the-dark-of-day-life-in-jakarta-urban/">look remarkably similar across the globe</a>. Ignored by the municipal government, they usually lack sanitation, clean drinking water, electricity, health care facilities and schools. Informal urban settlements are usually <a href="https://www.thoughtco.com/massive-urban-slums-1435765">precariously located</a>, near flood-prone waterfronts or on steep, unstable mountainsides. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301583/original/file-20191113-77305-nugz0y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301583/original/file-20191113-77305-nugz0y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301583/original/file-20191113-77305-nugz0y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301583/original/file-20191113-77305-nugz0y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301583/original/file-20191113-77305-nugz0y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301583/original/file-20191113-77305-nugz0y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301583/original/file-20191113-77305-nugz0y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301583/original/file-20191113-77305-nugz0y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An urban slum in Jakarta, Indonesia, April 3, 2017. Jakarta has seen regular outbreaks of protest since May 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Indonesia-Daily-Life/50adf90547c94f898ba7b39c5342e8b8/18/0">AP Photo/Tatan Syuflana</a></span>
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<p>Their economy and, to a significant degree, politics, are <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/bringing-the-state-to-the-slum-confronting-organized-crime-and-urban-violence-in-latin-america/">infiltrated by gangs</a> – organized crime groups that profit off the illegal trafficking of drugs, people and weapons. These gangs, in turn, may be <a href="https://www.thoughtco.com/massive-urban-slums-1435765">linked to political parties</a>, serving as their <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/40553119?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">armed enforcers</a>.</p>
<p>Many rural migrants, who lack identity documentation, social entitlements, housing and financial services, are forced to work in these illicit labor markets. </p>
<p>This system replicates in a predatory, illegal form the <a href="https://oxfordindex.oup.com/view/10.1093/oi/authority.20110803100310810">patron-client relationship</a> still common in many developing countries, in which a rural economic elite provides employment, loans, seeds, cash or protection for farmers in exchange for “taxes” – usually a share of the farmer’s produce – and political fealty. </p>
<p>In the unstable market economy of the urban slum, <a href="https://www.un.org/ruleoflaw/files/Challenge%20of%20Slums.pdf">gangs are the patron</a>.</p>
<h2>A staging ground for discontent</h2>
<p>The injustices of this daily life underlie the anger of many of today’s protesters. From Quito, Ecuador, to Beirut, the extreme marginalization of so many people living in big, dysfunctional and dangerous places has boiled over into deadly unrest. </p>
<p>In Haiti, for example, the majority of demonstrators who’ve staged <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/04/opinion/haiti-protests.html">nine straight weeks of massive protests</a> against documented official corruption, gasoline shortages and food scarcity are extremely poor Port-au-Prince residents. They are highly motivated to keep protesting because they are facing starvation.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301591/original/file-20191113-77342-1krg6v2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301591/original/file-20191113-77342-1krg6v2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301591/original/file-20191113-77342-1krg6v2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301591/original/file-20191113-77342-1krg6v2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301591/original/file-20191113-77342-1krg6v2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301591/original/file-20191113-77342-1krg6v2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301591/original/file-20191113-77342-1krg6v2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301591/original/file-20191113-77342-1krg6v2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People in the Cite Soleil slum, in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, wait for government-distributed food and school supplies, Oct. 3, 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/APTOPIX-Haiti-Political-Crisis/0fab5cb697ef4794b291c63bd3f1a76f/1/0">AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Even Chile, which technically is the wealthiest Latin American country, has an awful lot of <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-50123743">very poor people struggling to get by</a>. Its current protests, which began in mid-October with a hike in the Santiago subway fare, are disproportionately composed of youth and rural migrants from Santiago’s poor outskirts. Among Latin American countries, Chile has the second-highest rate of internal migration in <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5362059/">all of Latin America</a>, second only to Panama. Bolivia ranks fifth in the region.</p>
<p>It is not the actual movement of rural people into cities that <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0738894215581315">creates social upheaval</a>, according to a 2015 analysis of 20 years of data on internal migration, poverty and inequality for 34 cities in Africa and Asia. Rather, it’s the overall poor and unequal educational and housing opportunities that rural-to-urban migrants face in cities – coupled with their <a href="https://homerdixon.com/tag/project-on-environment-population-and-security/">socioeconomic marginalization</a> – that <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0738894215581315">spurs urban discontent</a>. </p>
<p>People who fled impoverished countryside only to find poverty in the city, too, are demanding more. Two centuries after the <a href="https://mappinghistory.uoregon.edu/english/EU/EU06-00.html">peasant rebellions that toppled monarchies across Europe</a>, cities have become the stage for the kind of <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-50123743">resentment and frustration</a> that can destabilize entire nations.</p>
<p>[ <em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126306/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Henry F. (Chip) Carey does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>From Santiago and La Paz to Beirut and Jakarta, many of the cities now gripped by protest share a common problem: They’ve grown too much, too fast.Henry F. (Chip) Carey, Associate Professor, Political Science, Georgia State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1233142019-09-26T14:48:51Z2019-09-26T14:48:51ZHow megaprojects are driving cities<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293765/original/file-20190924-54813-1q4i6ta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Virtually all megaprojects are urban in nature and location</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">jamesteohart/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Megaprojects are reconfigured spaces in which the role of the local, regional, and national elites, as well as the role of national and sometimes transnational capital, is usually prominent. They can include urban regeneration schemes, transport and energy infrastructure, industrial corridors, city clusters, new towns, innovation districts, science and technology parks and sports infrastructure.</p>
<p>Megaproject design and implementation usually brings together a range of big players. This is because of increased urban competition and the global visibility of the projects. It is also due to the fact that the configuration of political power exhibits distinct relationships between the local, regional, national, and global domains of social action.</p>
<p>It is important to note that, in a context of <a href="http://www.urbantheorylab.net/publications/planetary-urbanization/">urbanization</a> in the current globalised world, almost all megaprojects are urban in nature and location. Or they have a direct effect on cities and the urbanization process, urban development and competitiveness. The reason for this is that megaproject construction has been a major response to globalization in the urban realm.</p>
<h2>Urbanization</h2>
<p>Economist and social scientist <a href="https://www.nationalaffairs.com/public_interest/detail/the-principle-of-the-hiding-hand">Albert O. Hirschman</a> describes megaprojects as privileged particles of the development process. </p>
<p>He points out that often they are trait making. That is, they are designed to ambitiously change the structure of society. This is opposed to smaller and more conventional projects that are trait taking – they fit into pre-existing structures and do not attempt to modify them.</p>
<p>Megaprojects have spread in urban areas around the world. They have often caused the displacement of inhabitants, thus generating strong criticism from civil society. </p>
<p>We are heirs to the globalised city. It is no longer possible to conceive anything other than the regeneration of areas adjacent to rivers and bays, the recovery of areas previously dedicated to storage and manufacturing, the construction of new transport infrastructure, the extension of the existing ones, and the renovation of historic centres.</p>
<p>But the ‘Manhattanization’ of the world – and the urban political economy that sustains it – also presents difficulties. In addition, the process faces several structural obstacles with direct consequences for the design and construction of megaprojects in cities and regions.</p>
<h2>Linking to the global economy</h2>
<p>We could approach megaprojects as large-scale urban development projects with different elements and stakeholders and characterised by complexity. Megaprojects could include an iconic design component with the purpose of transforming a city’s – or parts of a city’s – image. These large-scale <a href="https://www.oxfordhandbooks.com/view/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198732242.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780198732242-e-21">projects</a> are often promoted and perceived by the urban elite as crucial catalysts for growth and even as linkages to the larger world economy. </p>
<p>The urban elite often perceive linkages to the global economy as fundamental to ensure sustained local economic development. This is because we live in an era marked by the shift in urban governance from <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/04353684.1989.11879583">managerialism to entrepreneurialism</a>. In this era, cities are thought of as nodes in a global network of relationships. </p>
<p>Urbanist <a href="https://www.hcu-hamburg.de/en/research/arbeitsgebiete/monika-grubbauer/">Monika Grubbauer</a> argues that regaining global visibility is not only a quintessential economic strategy. It also serves the purpose of symbolic or representational transformation, which is especially useful for regions and cities with distinct political identities.</p>
<h2>In search of the global metropolis</h2>
<p>Both objectives – the material and the symbolic – are present in many cities’ recent, concerted attempts to regain status as globalising metropolises. This has been done through the use of urban megaprojects in <a href="https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/S1047-0042(2013)0000013008/full/html">urban revitalization</a>. Revitalization itself is a political strategy that questions approaches stressing the exclusively economic and financial character of globalization.</p>
<p>It is also important to observe the social and socio-cultural context that is most conducive to the development of megaprojects. It seems clear that it’s essential to have broad social and political support, or perhaps even a certain degree of acquiescence, for these great plans to prosper. That’s because the magnitude of the projects – and the consequent effect on large areas of a city – can carry enormous economic costs. Megaprojects can also have massive environmental effects which can lead to civic distrust.</p>
<p>Movements and activism against megaprojects are not as intense as they were a few decades ago. The reason for this might be that, in most cases, megaprojects are successfully marketed as catalysts for economic development from which some will benefit.</p>
<p>In addition, when relatively few people are affected, it is more difficult to mobilise the opposition.</p>
<p>That’s not always the case. Take the <a href="https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/S1047-0042(2013)0000013017/full/html">failed airport in Mexico City </a> for example. This shows that megaprojects sometimes face internal and external conflicts and obstacles that can ultimately modify, delay or immobilise them.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/123314/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gerardo del Cerro Santamaría does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Megaproject construction has been a major response to globalization in the urban realm.Gerardo del Cerro Santamaría, U. S. Fulbright Award Recipient (Urban Planning), Former Visiting Professor, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1057222019-09-25T22:14:57Z2019-09-25T22:14:57ZAir pollution in global megacities linked to children’s cognitive decline, Alzheimer’s and death<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293878/original/file-20190924-51434-168bxr3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C89%2C3976%2C2574&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Severe air pollution can speed up neurodegeneration when the brain is at the peak of its development — during childhood. Pictured here, a child in Beijing.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In megacities across the world, including <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-016-0032-z">Mexico City, Jakarta, New Delhi, Beijing, Los Angeles, Paris and London</a>, humans are polluting air at a rate that <a href="https://www.who.int/airpollution/en/">Earth can no longer sustain</a>. </p>
<p>Most human-made air pollution is like <a href="http://www.clinsci.org/content/115/6/175.figures-only">dust, as tiny as the diameter of hair</a> (particulate matter) or even smaller (ultrafine particulate matter). The link to respiratory conditions such as pneumonia, bronchitis and asthma is well known. Almost one million children die from pneumonia each year, <a href="https://www.unicef.org/publications/files/Clear_the_Air_for_Children_Executive_summary_ENG.pdf">more than half of which are directly related to air pollution</a>. </p>
<p>Being so small, particulate matter can also travel <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/113/39/10797">from our lungs into the blood and circulate into the brain</a>. Once there, it can promote brain inflammation, which contributes to cell loss within the central nervous system, and likely to <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/299999970_How_Air_Pollution_Alters_Brain_Development_The_Role_of_Neuroinflammation">neurodegeneration, cognitive deficits and increased risk for dementias such as Alzheimer’s disease</a>.</p>
<p>While mild neurogeneration is a natural aspect of aging, it can be worsened and quickened by neuroinflammation from severe air pollution. Even worse, <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fnhum.2014.00613/full">severe air pollution can speed up neurodegeneration when the brain is at the peak of its development</a> — during childhood. </p>
<p>That’s right — millions of children around the world currently breathe air that may put them at risk of premature cognitive decline, and neurodegenerative disorders such as Alzheimer’s disease.</p>
<p>This is the story of how we continue to poison our children’s brains and cut their lives short.</p>
<h2>Unexplained deaths of children</h2>
<p>In the late 1990s, neuropathologist and pediatrician <a href="https://apps.umt.edu/directory/details/d5e922615467a007d31cf08f61451018">Lilian Calderón-Garcidueñas</a>, reported a <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Ana_Calderon6/publication/51366231_Brain_Inflammation_and_Alzheimer%27s-Like_Pathology_in_Individuals_Exposed_to_Severe_Air_Pollution/links/0c9605296dad95616f000000.pdf">connection between early signs of neurodegeneration and air pollution</a> by examining brain tissues in adults, children and dogs after unexplained sudden “accidental” deaths. </p>
<p>Those brains had only one thing in common — they were from residents of Mexico City, one of the most polluted megacities in the world. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293880/original/file-20190924-51438-vlnpul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293880/original/file-20190924-51438-vlnpul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293880/original/file-20190924-51438-vlnpul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293880/original/file-20190924-51438-vlnpul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293880/original/file-20190924-51438-vlnpul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293880/original/file-20190924-51438-vlnpul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293880/original/file-20190924-51438-vlnpul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Around 300 million children live in areas, such as Mexico City, where outdoor air pollution exceeds international guidelines by at least six times.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Further study showed what became a frequent grim picture in scientific reports. Microscopic images of unhealthy brain slices in diseased animals and humans showed particulate matter and ultrafine particulate matter as tiny dark spots surrounded by inflamed tissue. </p>
<p>Around the inflamed spots you can sometimes see strips that resemble scars but other times you can see pinkish stems. These are the <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Angelica_Gonzalez-Maciel/publication/5503901_Long-term_Air_Pollution_Exposure_Is_Associated_with_Neuroinflammation_an_Altered_Innate_Immune_Response_Disruption_of_the_Blood-Brain_Barrier_Ultrafine_Particulate_Deposition_and_Accumulation_of_Amylo/links/54230f580cf290c9e3ae263b.pdf">amyloid plaques frequently found after death in the brains of people with Alzheimer’s disease</a>.</p>
<p>I joined Lilian’s team as an <a href="https://carleton.ca/neuroscience/people/amedeo-dangiulli/">expert in cognitive developmental neuroscience and neuroimaging</a>. We looked for signs of premature cognitive decline in living residents, using behavioural tests and taking various types of images of target brain regions. </p>
<h2>Substantial cognitive decline in kids’ brains</h2>
<p>We found that children from Mexico City had <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/bs.ant.2018.10.008">substantial cognitive decline</a> as compared to population norms, and as compared to other children of similar age, sex and family and neighbourhood backgrounds who lived in less polluted areas. </p>
<p>We were also able to pinpoint unusual cognitive deficits to <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/51750512_Exposure_to_severe_urban_air_pollution_influences_cognitive_outcomes_brain_volume_and_systemic_inflammation_in_clinically_healthy_children">key developing areas of the brain</a>: the prefrontal, temporal and parietal lobes of the cortex. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdevneu.2011.03.007">Atypical cognition was also found in the auditory brain stem</a>, possibly relating to speech and language developmental deficits. Neuroimages in children were consistent with <a href="https://content.iospress.com/articles/journal-of-alzheimers-disease/jad120610">most serious damage being in the white matter</a> — the parts of the brain providing the connections for electrical communication. In many cases we were able to show that <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21955814">in those Mexico City children, neuroinflammation was much worse than normal</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293881/original/file-20190924-51434-11h40az.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293881/original/file-20190924-51434-11h40az.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293881/original/file-20190924-51434-11h40az.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293881/original/file-20190924-51434-11h40az.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293881/original/file-20190924-51434-11h40az.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293881/original/file-20190924-51434-11h40az.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293881/original/file-20190924-51434-11h40az.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Polluted megacities include those such as Paris, London and Los Angeles. Here, traffic is shown in the city of London, UK.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Today, <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fnhum.2014.00613">reports of similar findings from other megacities and from other researchers</a> show a considerable agreement: the brains of millions of children are being damaged by air pollution and protecting them should be of pressing importance for public health.</p>
<h2>Public health crisis requiring immediate action</h2>
<p>The good news: It is still possible to clear the air of cities, both indoors and outdoors, and <a href="https://www.unicef.org/publications/files/Clear_the_Air_for_Children_Executive_summary_ENG.pdf">minimize children’s exposure</a>. </p>
<p>However, our attitudes must now <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2018.00095">shift from caution and waiting to immediate action</a>. We need to commit to hard choices that may go against the convenience and ease of modern life we are accustomed to. For example, relying on cars and other combustion-based technologies. </p>
<p>If things are to change, the <a href="https://books.google.ca/books?id=uFTiBwAAQBAJ&vq=Colleen+Moore+air+pollution&dq=Colleen+Moore+air+pollution&source=gbs_navlinks_s">responsibility lies with the individual “me” and “you,” as well as with our collective society and institutions</a>. We will never make it if one side of this equation continues to download responsibility to the other.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(17)30505-6">Alzheimer’s disease and other most hideous neurodegenerative diseases (dementias) are linked with all levels of air pollution </a>, in people of all ages. Such diseases are <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/the-top-10-causes-of-death">among the top 10 mass killers globally</a> and there is still no cure for them.</p>
<p>The science is in. Children are now rising up globally <a href="https://qz.com/1714484/greta-thunberg-files-climate-lawsuit-after-passionate-un-speech/">to defend their rights to a healthy life, on the global stage</a>. We must respond, with concrete changes to our habits.</p>
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<p>[ <em>Like what you’ve read? Want more?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=likethis">Sign up for The Conversation’s daily newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/105722/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amedeo D'Angiulli has received funding from UNICEF, Carleton University's Faculty of Science & International Research Seed Grants, Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, The Association of Universities and Colleges of Canada & the International Development Research Centre, UNESCO International Bureau of Education, and the International Brain Research Organization.</span></em></p>Investigation of the brains of children and young adults who died suddenly in Mexico City revealed amyloid plaques similar to those found in the brains of people with Alzheimer’s disease.Amedeo D'Angiulli, Professor of Developmental Cognitive and Social Neuroscience, Carleton UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1230522019-09-24T12:58:30Z2019-09-24T12:58:30ZHow traditional beliefs and systems are used to fight crime in parts of Lagos<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293576/original/file-20190923-54804-h30qd1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As the commercial nerve centre of Nigeria, Lagos naturally draws lots of people to it – good and bad. With an estimated population of <a href="http://worldpopulationreview.com/world-cities/lagos-population/">21 million</a>, fighting crime in Nigeria’s former capital territory is a tough job. </p>
<p>Violent crimes such as armed robbery, kidnapping, rape and gang-related crimes are common in the Lagos megacity. Owing to this, the state government has invested significantly in modern <a href="https://www.pmnewsnigeria.com/2019/09/05/crime-battle-sanwo-olu-donates-120-patrol-vehicles-35-motorcycles-to-police/">policing capabilities</a>, while also recognising and regulating the traditional crime fighting structures. </p>
<p>But it’s a complicated business. The state has 20 local governments and 37 local council development areas. Coordination is extremely difficult to manage.</p>
<p>Another gap in the system is that the traditional structures of fighting crime in the city remain largely unexplored. They include traditional spiritualists and family courts. These still enjoy considerable patronage in Nigeria, especially among rural communities.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10246029.2015.1023325">our research</a>, we examined the traditional structures of conflict management and crime control in the Iraye community in the Epe local government of the Lagos mega-city. </p>
<p>Our research shows that traditional structures are effective in adjudicating land disputes (land grabbing), rape and theft, among other cases. We believe that integrating structures like this in Nigeria’s modern crime control mechanisms could help strengthen the country’s crime fighting capabilities. </p>
<h2>Traditional structures</h2>
<p>There are four traditional crime and conflict management structures. </p>
<p>The first is the traditional spiritualist called <em>elegboogi</em> (medicine men and women) and <em>babalawo</em> (diviners) whose task is to protect people from being victims of crime. They also assist in demystifying puzzles surrounding theft. </p>
<p>The relevance of the <em>elegboogis</em> in the community should be seen in the context of the cultural belief systems, which hold that everyone is prone to experiencing crime. And, like bad fortune in life, every attempt should be made to guard against crime and by taking physical measures to protect one’s property and self, but others fortify themselves with charms. Various priests of the various deities (<em>Orisa</em>) provide these services.</p>
<p>The second is the family court (<em>Ile-ejo agbo-ile</em>), which is presided over by family chiefs and elders. They mitigate crises, settle rifts among family members, and adjudicate in criminal cases. They handle cases involving wife battery, family inheritance disputes and petty theft. </p>
<p>Land disputes, for instance, are widespread and could assume dangerous criminal dimensions if not quickly handled within the family. People explore this option to escape the cumbersome nature of reporting to the police, and the likely effect for family harmony. </p>
<p>The third is the king’s court, which is superior to the first two, and includes members of the traditional political structure. The court presides over cases such as murder, land disputes between families, adultery and fornication. </p>
<p>The fourth comprises traditional extrajudicial measures. These are carried out by invoking the spirits or the community’s deities with other ancestral deities such as <em>Ayeni</em> and <em>Lenuwa</em>. </p>
<p>People use these deities because they want instant solutions to their problems, which they cannot get from the modern security agencies such as the police.</p>
<p>The priests, or devotees, of these divinities prepare charms made of herbs, some animal parts and alcohol. A spell is then cast over the charm. This rests on the belief in a spiritual universe of the efficacy of the charm, the victim (who has brought the case) and the devotee, priest or diviner never look on the charm as purely material. They believe in the invisible efficacy of the charm, provided that the mixture is made to specification and the correct invocation is rendered.</p>
<p>Other extra-judicial measures include ostracism in the form of isolation from the community or banishment. </p>
<p>Then there’s satirical sanction or shaming. This entails public mockery, where the culprit is drawn or moved to a central place in the community and mocked for his or her anti-social behaviour.</p>
<p>Ostracism and satirical isolation are mostly used where conflicts or criminal injury are deemed to be beyond human understanding. They are also used where the people involved are not satisfied with the judgement received from legal processes. </p>
<p>Another intervention involves traditional oath-taking. Oaths are generally used as a curse when there is doubt or mystery over an issue, and the parties to the issue are unwilling to compromise and there is no clear-cut evidence or proof.</p>
<p>It is believed that the consequences of lying under oath may range from insanity to death. Hence, people of the town do not speak falsely when under oath. According to a female High Chief whose traditional title is lagbariko explains, </p>
<blockquote>
<p>ancestral cults are like spirits, they are dead people. But, they are not considered dead by the community people because of their impact on the community when they were alive.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Their spirits are also invoked to intercede in the community’s affairs, like cleansing of the community, crime prevention, dispute settlement. </p>
<h2>Case for integration</h2>
<p>The role and efficacy of the traditional crime-prevention measures in Iraye-Oke are widely acknowledged by people who live in the area. </p>
<p>We believe that traditional methods should be harnessed to manage conflicts and crime. This is because it is the way of life that people can relate to and that everyone can understand.</p>
<p>But, the traditional mechanisms of conflict management and crime control should be regulated by the police to prevent human rights violations. </p>
<p>There is a precedent for this: the police invite some ethnic vigilante groups to <a href="https://www.vanguardngr.com/2017/07/131-badoo-suspects-cultists-nab-ikorodu/">fight crime in Lagos state</a>. Since crime is local, sustaining this partnership with traditional structures in indigenous communities will assist in solving crime problems in the mega-city.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/123052/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Oludayo Tade does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The role and efficacy of the traditional crime-prevention measures in Iraye-Oke are widely acknowledged by people who live in the area.Oludayo Tade, Researcher in criminology, victimology, electronic frauds and cybercrime, University of IbadanLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1162662019-05-01T20:18:06Z2019-05-01T20:18:06ZIndonesia isn’t the only country planning new cities. Why not Australia?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271893/original/file-20190501-136784-1vrb4zb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Indonesia plans to relocate its capital from the sprawling city of Jakarta – and it isn't the only country with plans to build whole new cities.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AsiaTravel/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The announcement that President Joko Widodo’s government will <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-29/jakarta-to-no-longer-be-capital-of-indonesia-planning-minister/11056306">move Indonesia’s capital</a> to another location, due to the severity of <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-29/jakarta,-a-city-under-pressure-from-a-growing-population/8480226">human-induced degradation in Jakarta</a>, highlights a key tension for cities today. In the face of increasingly unsustainable urban environments, do we retrofit existing cities, or relocate and build new cities to achieve greater sustainability? </p>
<p>The answer is both. But each has its challenges.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-cities-its-an-idea-worth-thinking-about-for-australia-92990">New cities? It's an idea worth thinking about for Australia</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Creating new cities</h2>
<p>The goal of turning cities from sustainability problems to solutions is driving a suite of “future city” innovations. These include the planning and development of whole new cities.</p>
<p>An <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/08/smart-cities-forest-city-belmont/">increasing number of countries</a> are planning to build cities from scratch using technological innovation to achieve more sustainable urban development. <a href="https://www.nst.com.my/property/2018/09/411211/forest-city-%E2%80%94-model-other-cities">Forest City in Malaysia</a>, <a href="http://smartcityaz.com/">Belmont smart city</a> in the United States and the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2018/aug/06/five-years-ago-there-was-nothing-inside-duqm-the-city-rising-from-the-sand-oman-city-sand-luxury-hotels-housing">Sino-Oman Industrial City</a> are just some of the examples. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Forest City is Malaysia’s biggest development project.</span></figcaption>
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<p>The urban ambition includes creating carless and walkable cities, green cities able to produce oxygen through eco-skyscrapers, high-speed internet embedded in the urban fabric, the capacity to convert waste into energy, and reclaiming land to create new strategic trade opportunities. </p>
<p>However, striking the right balance between innovative ideas and democratic expectations, including the public right to the city, remains a challenge.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/will-habitat-iii-defend-the-human-right-to-the-city-57576">Will Habitat III defend the human right to the city?</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><a href="http://www.mxcfilm.com/">The Minnesota Experimental City</a> offers a cautionary tale. The aim was to solve urban problems by creating a new city. It would use the latest technology including nuclear energy, automated cars and a domed roof enclosure. </p>
<p>Despite significant government and financial backing, including its own state agency, the Minnesota project failed due to a lack of public understanding and local support for a top-down futuristic project.</p>
<h2>Who gets left behind?</h2>
<p>In 1960, Brazil moved its capital from Rio de Janeiro to the futuristic city of <a href="https://brasilialifeafterdesign.com/">Brasilia</a>. While the city was designed to accommodate both rich and poor, it quickly became unaffordable for the average family. Half a century on, it was <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-20632277">reported</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The poor have been shunted out to satellite cities, which range from proper well-built cities to something more like a shanty town.</p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271890/original/file-20190501-136787-19tjt88.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271890/original/file-20190501-136787-19tjt88.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271890/original/file-20190501-136787-19tjt88.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=576&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271890/original/file-20190501-136787-19tjt88.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=576&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271890/original/file-20190501-136787-19tjt88.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=576&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271890/original/file-20190501-136787-19tjt88.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=724&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271890/original/file-20190501-136787-19tjt88.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=724&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271890/original/file-20190501-136787-19tjt88.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=724&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Indonesian capital Jakarta is part of a larger mega-city.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-vector/vector-map-indonesian-megacity-urban-area-1306511566?src=cXVttw8d5C49wehUebYppg-1-1">Rainer Lesniewski/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>In Indonesia, more than 30 million people – <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2014/09/20/the-need-a-national-urban-development-policy-indonesia.html">a fifth of the nation’s urban residents</a> and more than a tenth of the <a href="http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/indonesia-population/">269 million population</a> – live in Greater Jakarta. The capital city Jakarta is just one part of a larger mega-city agglomeration, the world’s <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jakarta">second-largest after Greater Tokyo</a>. This vast connected urban meta-region is known as <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jabodetabek">Jabodetabek</a>, from the initials of the cities within it: Jakarta (with a population of 10 million), Bogor (1 million), Depok (2.1 million), Tangerang (2 million), South Tangerang (1.5 million) and Bekasi (2.7 million). </p>
<p>A key reason for moving the capital is that Jakarta is prone to serious flooding and is <a href="https://www.deltares.nl/app/uploads/2015/09/Sinking-cities.pdf">rapidly sinking</a>. Jakarta also suffers <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-29/jakarta,-a-city-under-pressure-from-a-growing-population/8480226">overpopulation, severe traffic gridlock, slums</a> and a lack of critical urban infrastructure such as drainage and sanitation. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-sea-isnt-actually-level-why-rising-oceans-will-hit-some-cities-more-than-others-68378">The sea isn't actually 'level': why rising oceans will hit some cities more than others</a>
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</p>
<hr>
<p>Relocating the capital away from the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-29/jakarta-to-no-longer-be-capital-of-indonesia-planning-minister/11056306">crowded main island of Java</a> offers the opportunity to better plan the political and administrative centre using the latest urban design features and technology.</p>
<p>Two key questions arise. If environmental degradation and overpopulation are the key issues, what will become of the largely remaining population of Greater Jakarta? At a national scale, how will this relocation help overcome the <a href="https://theconversation.com/two-decades-of-economic-growth-benefited-only-the-richest-20-how-severe-is-inequality-in-indonesia-101138">socio-economic and spatial disparities</a> that exist in Indonesia?</p>
<p>Egypt, for example, is <a href="https://theconversation.com/egypt-is-building-a-new-capital-city-from-scratch-heres-how-to-avoid-inequality-and-segregation-103402">building a new capital city</a> to overcome severe urban congestion and overcrowding in Greater Cairo. But there is no guarantee the new capital will resolve these issues if the emphasis is solely on technological innovation, without adequate attention to urban equity and fairness.</p>
<h2>More of the same in Australia</h2>
<p>The Australian population is <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/mf/3222.0">projected to grow to 36 million in the next 30 years</a>. This is focusing political, policy and public attention on what this means for the future of the nation’s cities. </p>
<p>Despite all the advances that have occurred in technology, the arts, architecture, design and the sciences, there is surprisingly little innovation or public discussion about what might be possible for 21st-century Australian settlements beyond the capital cities.</p>
<p>Future Australian city planning and development focuses largely on enlarging and intensifying the footprints of existing major cities. The current urban policy trajectory is in-fill development and expansion of the existing state capital mega-city regions, where <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/3218.0Main%20Features12017-18?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=3218.0&issue=2017-18&num=&view=">two-thirds of the population live</a>. But what is lost through this approach? </p>
<p>In Australia only two ambitious “new city” plans have been put forward in the last 50 years: <a href="https://crawford.anu.edu.au/pdf/pep/pep-283.pdf">the Multifunction Polis</a> (MFP) and <a href="http://www.clara.com.au/index.html">the CLARA Plan</a>. </p>
<p>In the late 1980s the MFP was envisaged as a high-tech city of the future with nuclear power, modern communication and Asian investment. It failed to gain the necessary political, investment and public support and was never built. </p>
<p>The current CLARA Plan proposes building up to eight new regional smart cities connected by a high-speed rail system linking Sydney and Melbourne via Canberra. Each of these cities is designed to be compact, environmentally sustainable and just a quick train trip away from the capital cities. </p>
<p>CLARA has outlined a “<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-value-capture-and-what-does-it-mean-for-cities-58776">value capture</a>” business model based on private city land development, not “government coffer” funding. How these new cities propose to function within the constitutional framework of Australia is as yet unclear and untested.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/7FJ7sXTdQ2k?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The privately funded CLARA plan is to build up to eight compact, sustainable, smart cities connected via high-speed rail.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/high-speed-rail-plan-still-needs-to-prove-economic-benefits-will-outweigh-costs-63330">High speed rail plan still needs to prove economic benefits will outweigh costs</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<h2>A bipartisan challenge</h2>
<p>Are we thinking too narrowly when we talk about future Australian cities?</p>
<p>The “future city” prompts us to rethink and re-imagine the complex nature and make-up of our urban settlements, and the role of critical infrastructure and planning within them. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-critical-about-critical-infrastructure-73849">What's critical about critical infrastructure?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The future of Australian cities will require creativity, vision (even courage) to respond effectively to the challenges and opportunities of sustainable development. </p>
<p>This will not be the remit of any one political party, but a bipartisan national urban settlement agenda that affects and involves all Australians.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/116266/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wendy Steele receives funding from the Australian Research Council. She is an Urban Scholar with the UN Global City Compact and member of the Australasian Cities Research Network.</span></em></p>Other countries are planning new cities using technological innovation to achieve more sustainable development. Such plans aren’t new for Australia, but existing city growth is the focus of attention.Wendy Steele, Associate Professor, Centre of Urban Research and Urban Futures Enabling Capability Platform, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1097802019-01-24T22:18:35Z2019-01-24T22:18:35ZHow growing cities can support at-home electric vehicle charging<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255013/original/file-20190122-100261-d8u4il.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Apartment buildings and condos often lack charging stations for electric vehicles. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Pixabay)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Rapid urban population growth is driving many cities around the world to reduce their carbon footprints. In Canada, two major policy agendas are designed to achieve this: boosting urban density and promoting low-carbon transportation such as electric vehicles (EVs). </p>
<p>Despite their overlap, these goals are often pursued separately through disjointed planning strategies. In time, ad-hoc policies could be counterproductive and stall the shift to EVs, by making ownership expensive, inefficient and complicated.</p>
<p>Most Canadians live in cities, where the deployment of EVs has two main advantages. </p>
<p>First, EVs can <a href="http://www.c40.org/researches/mckinsey-center-for-business-and-environment">drastically reduce local emissions</a> as long as their electricity comes from sustainable sources. Second, their driving ranges are suited to short urban trips. For example, <a href="http://vancouver.ca/files/cov/EV-Ecosystem-Strategy.pdf">95 per cent of driving trips in Vancouver are less than 30 kilometres</a>, well within the range of an EV.</p>
<p>However, as cities swap single-family homes for multi-unit dwellings to increase population density, reduce housing prices and lower carbon emissions, the installation of EV charging stations in existing multi-unit dwellings is lagging behind. Our research found ways to change that.</p>
<h2>EV sales on the rise in British Columbia</h2>
<p>British Columbia is an attractive location for EVs because roughly 90 per cent of the province’s electricity comes from large renewable hydropower. Widespread EV usage <a href="http://rem-main.rem.sfu.ca/papers/jaxsen/Electrifying_Vehicle_%28Early_Release%29-The_2015_Canadian_Plug-in_Electric_Vehicle_Study.pdf">could cut B.C.’s greenhouse gas emissions by up to 98 per cent</a>. Residential electricity rates in B.C. are now low enough that charging a vehicle at home is <a href="http://www.westcoastelectricfleets.com/wp-content/uploads/CHOA-report.pdf">less expensive than fuelling a conventional gasoline vehicle</a>. </p>
<p>Together with B.C.’s <a href="https://sfustart.files.wordpress.com/2016/11/canadas-electric-vehicle-policy-report-card.pdf">EV subsidies</a>, these factors more than doubled provincial EV sales between 2013 and 2017. However, EVs still make up only two per cent of all vehicles on B.C.’s roads. What’s more, B.C.’s current regulations mean that <a href="http://www.metcalffoundation.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Canadas-Electric-Vehicle-Policy-Report-Card.pdf">EVs will likely only have a 10 per cent market share by 2040</a>, far below the Canadian government’s goal of 30 per cent by 2030. This suggests more stringent policies are needed.</p>
<p>Consumers are switching to EVs as the number of models on the market grows and <a href="https://about.bnef.com/blog/lithium-ion-battery-costs-squeezed-margins-new-business-models/">battery prices decrease</a>, but drivers want to be sure they will be able to charge their vehicles quickly, easily and cheaply. </p>
<p>Electrified transportation is still beset by the classic chicken-and-egg problem: fuel providers will not invest in fuelling infrastructure until enough EVs are in circulation, and people will avoid buying an EV until sufficient charging points exist.</p>
<h2>Few incentives to retrofit</h2>
<p>While a dense network of <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2018/10/3/17933134/ev-charging-station-network-infrastrcuture-tesla">public charging points will be important</a> for reducing range anxiety among users, almost <a href="http://www.plugndrive.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Enabling-EV-Charging-in-Condominiums.pdf">90 per cent of charging takes place at home</a>. Yet the installation of home charging stations is complicated in buildings with multiple dwelling units, because of competing interests in the common spaces shared by residents. So-called “Multi-Unit Residential Buildings” now account for <a href="http://www.plugndrive.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Enabling-EV-Charging-in-Condominiums.pdf">over a quarter of all households in B.C.</a> and are forecast to make up 70 per cent of all new residential constructions in the province by 2020.</p>
<p>As of 2019, <a href="http://canada.autonews.com/article/20180315/CANADA/180319816/vancouver-to-require-ev-charging-stations-for-all-new-condo-parking">all new multi-family residential developments built in Vancouver must include EV charging infrastructure</a>. But the city has no policies to encourage building owners to retrofit existing buildings with charging points. </p>
<p>Our research found <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2018.11.009">financial and technical issues were the most significant barriers to installing charging points</a> in multi-unit residential buildings, mostly due to the imposing electrical loads EV charging stations place on the buildings’ existing power systems. Other barriers include the lack of support from non-EV drivers, unclear regulation concerning the rights and obligations of drivers and landlords, and overly conservative regulatory requirements for buildings.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255064/original/file-20190122-100292-ojr9is.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255064/original/file-20190122-100292-ojr9is.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=192&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255064/original/file-20190122-100292-ojr9is.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=192&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255064/original/file-20190122-100292-ojr9is.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=192&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255064/original/file-20190122-100292-ojr9is.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=242&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255064/original/file-20190122-100292-ojr9is.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=242&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255064/original/file-20190122-100292-ojr9is.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=242&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">B.C. building permits for multiple unit residences are on an upward trend.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Data from Statistics Canada</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Breaking down barriers</h2>
<p>Municipal governments throughout B.C. could break down these barriers with <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421518306840">a few key policy changes</a>.</p>
<p>They could start by introducing financial policies that create incentives for both EV owners and building owners. So-called “demand-focused” policies include programs that provide financial aid to building owners to develop retrofit plans, and to mandate them to retrofit a minimum number of charging stations. EV ownership could be incentivized through rebates that cover the cost of a new vehicle: B.C. already offers <a href="https://www.bchydro.com/powersmart/electric-vehicles/owning-an-electric-vehicle/rebates-and-incentives.html">rebates of up to $5,000</a>, but this is much <a href="https://transportselectriques.gouv.qc.ca/en/be-part-of-the-change/">lower than in Québec</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255418/original/file-20190124-135130-5gxx06.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255418/original/file-20190124-135130-5gxx06.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255418/original/file-20190124-135130-5gxx06.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255418/original/file-20190124-135130-5gxx06.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255418/original/file-20190124-135130-5gxx06.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255418/original/file-20190124-135130-5gxx06.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255418/original/file-20190124-135130-5gxx06.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Government incentives could bring more EV charging stations to multi-unit residential buildings.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Municipal governments should also clarify the rights and obligations of builders, building owners, residents and others when it comes to charging infrastructure. For instance, who should pay for the installation and running costs of charging points in condos? What sort of upgrades are needed to deal with the extra electrical loads from EV charging? </p>
<p>Non-governmental associations such as the <a href="http://www.westcoastelectricfleets.com/wp-content/uploads/CHOA-report.pdf">Condominium Home Owners Association of B.C.</a> and the <a href="https://www.boma.bc.ca/media/19602/EVCS%20Info%20Booklet%20For%20MURBs%20-%20BOMA%20BC%20.pdf">Building Owners and Managers Association of B.C.</a> offer some guidance, but confusion remains.</p>
<p>Finally, governments can help raise public awareness and acceptance of EVs by introducing programs to educate people who have less trust in, and understanding of, EV technology.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-get-more-electric-vehicles-on-the-road-88755">How to get more electric vehicles on the road</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Many municipalities around the world could adopt these suggestions to encourage the installation of at-home EV charging points, while also boosting urban density.</p>
<p>Cities <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/global-themes/urbanization/urban-world-mapping-the-economic-power-of-cities">generate 80 per cent of global GDP</a> and are responsible for <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/global-themes/urbanization/urban-world-mapping-the-economic-power-of-cities">70 per cent of carbon dioxide emissions</a>, so they are critical arenas for addressing the sources and effects of climate change. </p>
<p>As vehicle electrification gains ground in Canada and elsewhere, we will need policies that do a better job of recognizing the obstacles and opportunities around residential charging. The high densification and mobility challenges experienced in B.C.’s urban areas illustrates the challenges faced by many modern cities. </p>
<p><em>This piece was written in conjunction with Diana Lopez-Behar, Martino Tran, Thomas Froese, Omar Herrera and Walter Merida (University of British Columbia).</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/109780/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jerome Mayaud works as a Postdoctoral Fellow for the University of British Columbia, and his position is funded by the Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions and the Cascadia Urban Analytics Corridor.</span></em></p>To encourage citizens to drive electric vehicles, governments must develop bold new strategies that bring charging stations home.Jerome Mayaud, Postdoctoral Fellow, University of British ColumbiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1011802018-08-07T19:42:53Z2018-08-07T19:42:53ZMaking small cities bigger will help better distribute Australia’s 25 million people<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230873/original/file-20180807-191041-1dt72rs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The bigger Melbourne gets, the more attractive it becomes.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">from shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The knowledge economy has concentrated skilled people in large cities such as Melbourne. This has meant such cities take most of Australia’s jobs, leading to what has been dubbed “agglomeration economies” – where knowledge and production flow easily between firms and people as they cluster near one another. </p>
<p>Australia’s population clock ticked over to 25 million last night, and it’s easy to see why most of this number are living in the bigger cities. Of course, the bigger cities are also more attractive, and the cycle continues. They keep growing at the expense of smaller regional cities. </p>
<p>For a long time now, there have been calls for a national <a href="https://www.planning.org.au/documents/item/7874">policy to ensure</a> a <a href="https://theconversation.com/our-big-cities-are-engines-of-inequality-so-how-do-we-fix-that-69775">more equitable distribution</a> of the population across cities of all sizes. Governments can take some lessons from policies in Australia’s recent history, as well as those of other countries, that have aimed to address similar issues.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/aim-for-cities-of-all-sizes-to-give-everyone-a-fair-go-94657">Aim for cities of all sizes to give everyone a fair go</a>
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<h2>Australia’s past attempts</h2>
<p>In the 1950s and ‘60s, Sydney’s congestion and pollution problems caused the state government to <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-8330.1981.tb00004.x">implement a decentralisation program</a>. Under this policy, manufacturing companies were given financial incentives to set up in country towns. The program achieved fairly modest success but came to an end in the early '70s. This was when tariff walls fell and the local manufacturing sector succumbed to competition from East Asian production. </p>
<p>The Whitlam <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-8330.1981.tb00004.x">government implemented a cities program</a> in 1973 to entice people out of the bigger cities. The program allocated funds to develop new cities with 100,000 to 250,000 people such as Albury-Wodonga. Research at the time had indicated this was the <a href="https://trove.nla.gov.au/work/14126500?q&versionId=16690100">optimum population size</a> for a city.</p>
<p>This program was axed by the Fraser government, which saw the land and infrastructure developments in the smaller cities as too costly. And there were no compensatory new jobs – especially in manufacturing. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230884/original/file-20180807-138709-1qdtlnu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230884/original/file-20180807-138709-1qdtlnu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230884/original/file-20180807-138709-1qdtlnu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230884/original/file-20180807-138709-1qdtlnu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230884/original/file-20180807-138709-1qdtlnu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230884/original/file-20180807-138709-1qdtlnu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230884/original/file-20180807-138709-1qdtlnu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230884/original/file-20180807-138709-1qdtlnu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Whitlam government had a policy for cities such as Albury to house over 100,000 people.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">from shutterstock.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Smaller cities need to be decently sized if they’re to provide a level of services and jobs with which to attract people from the larger cities. This is reflected in Victoria’s <a href="https://www.planning.vic.gov.au/policy-and-strategy/planning-for-melbourne/melbourne-2030-planning-for-sustainable-growth">current 30 year development strategy</a>, which promotes the growth of Geelong, Ballarat and Bendigo through good rail services to Melbourne, as well as relocation of state government functions. </p>
<p>Each of these cities has a big enough size (approaching 100,000 or beyond) to support an attractive level of services. And they’re also close enough to Melbourne to allow commuting as a supplement to local jobs. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-many-people-make-a-good-city-its-not-the-size-that-matters-but-how-you-use-it-101102">How many people make a good city? It's not the size that matters, but how you use it</a>
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<hr>
<p>Metropolitan growth is outsourced to large, nearby urban areas in other states. Cities such as Wollongong, NSW and the Gold Coast, QLD take some of Sydney and Brisbane’s spillover. This could be extended to Newcastle and the Sunshine Coast with better rail connections. </p>
<p>But such rail services require significant government subsidies, even though they offset congestion costs in the major cities. And it’s not the whole answer. Even the favourable geography of Victoria’s provincial cities has by no means reduced Melbourne’s growth problems. </p>
<p>So, where do we go from here?</p>
<h2>What other countries are doing</h2>
<p>Globally, policies aiming to reduce the dominance and growth of major cities have focused on building large city alternatives. One policy available to every country is to relocate its national capital when it has become too big. </p>
<p>In the mid-20th century, both <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bras%C3%ADlia">Brazil</a> and Tanzania followed Turkey and relocated their capital cities inland to reduce the dominance of the major coastal cities. More recently, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abuja">Nigeria</a> and Kazakhstan have both established new capital cities in the centre of the country to draw growth from the previous capitals.</p>
<p>Brasilia and Ankara have developed into major metropolitan areas in their own right, though this has not yet happened in the other new capitals.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230887/original/file-20180807-7141-1r3hk6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230887/original/file-20180807-7141-1r3hk6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230887/original/file-20180807-7141-1r3hk6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=319&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230887/original/file-20180807-7141-1r3hk6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=319&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230887/original/file-20180807-7141-1r3hk6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=319&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230887/original/file-20180807-7141-1r3hk6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230887/original/file-20180807-7141-1r3hk6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230887/original/file-20180807-7141-1r3hk6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Under the Northern Powerhouse plan, cities like Sheffield would be stimulated by new transport connections.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">from shutterstock.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The UK and France are both attempting to create large metropolitan areas in the regions as counterweights to London and Paris. In the UK, regional development policies in the 1960s and 70s, including relocation of offices from London, failed to stem the capital’s economic dominance. </p>
<p>The latest attempt is the Tories’ policy, known the <a href="https://northernpowerhouse.gov.uk/">Northern Powerhouse</a>. This is conceived as a collection of northern English cities, from Liverpool to Leeds and Sheffield, that would be stimulated by new transport connections, reallocation of science funding, devolution of central government, and arts and culture projects. But this <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/01/tories-northern-powerhouse-transport-system-cities-george-osborne">has been critised</a> as geographically fuzzy, insufficiently funded and generally a “mess”.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-northern-powerhouse-needs-to-be-more-than-a-slogan-59043">The Northern Powerhouse needs to be more than a slogan</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>France has taken a <a href="http://www.oecd.org/cfe/regional-policy/regionaldevelopmentpoliciesinoecdcountries.htm">similar approach</a> to actively support major urban “agglomerations” such as Bordeaux and Lyon.</p>
<p>China has active policies to reduce the growth of the super-sized or <a href="https://www.1421.consulting/2018/05/chinese-tier-2-cities/">tier-one cities</a> (Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou) and <a href="https://www.sixthtone.com/news/1002002/chinas-second-tier-cities-battle-for-bright-minds">promote tier-two and three cities</a>, all of which have a population of more than one million. </p>
<p>Registration for those moving into lower tier cities, which gives access to various social services, has been relaxed. Connectivity to <a href="https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/china-lower-tier-cities">lower tier cities</a> has been enhanced by investment in high speed rail and airports. And new rail links to Europe under the Belt and Road Initiative have helped tier two inland cities such as Wuhan and Chengdu.</p>
<h2>Make smaller cities bigger</h2>
<p>It’s clear the modern economy requires alternatives to Australia’s big cities to pack sufficient punch if they’re to really compete with the metropolitan areas. </p>
<p>Building up large new cities from scratch, as we tried to do in the ‘70s, is too expensive and risky. We should focus on the few large alternatives we already have to the big four cities. This means Adelaide and Canberra, in particular, should be considered for more rapid growth. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/rail-access-improves-liveability-but-all-regional-centres-are-not-equal-96462">Rail access improves liveability, but all regional centres are not equal</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Adelaide’s <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-05-30/adelaide-30-year-plan-explained/8570598">30-year plan for urban growth</a> envisions nearly two million people by 2045, and there would be advantages for the nation if that mark were reached sooner rather than later. But that would perhaps require other states to give up a bit of their own growth – something which may not be an easy sell to the state governments.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/101180/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Glen Searle receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>In the 70s, Whitlam tried to build new, big cities. But this was too costly. Now the most viable solution for Australia’s population woes is to make existing cities bigger.Glen Searle, Honorary Associate Professor in Planning, University of Queensland and, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1011022018-08-07T07:21:48Z2018-08-07T07:21:48ZHow many people make a good city? It’s not the size that matters, but how you use it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230842/original/file-20180807-191013-1i6bix1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Most of Australia's population is concentrated in big cities like Sydney and Melbourne.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">from shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australia’s population clock is, <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/0/1647509ef7e25faaca2568a900154b63?OpenDocument">according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics</a>, steadily ticking away at an overall total population increase of one person every 1 minute and 23 seconds. It’s <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/0/1647509ef7e25faaca2568a900154b63?OpenDocument">set to tick over</a> to 25 million around 11pm tonight.</p>
<p>Many are debating what the <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/2018/08/06/15/11/australia-25-million-population-milestone-urban-planning-growing-pains">ideal population</a> is for a country like Australia. But because most of this population growth is concentrated in our big cities, perhaps we should be thinking less about that and more about the ideal size of a city. Historically, there have been many theories on what this would be.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/migration-helps-balance-our-ageing-population-we-dont-need-a-moratorium-100030">Migration helps balance our ageing population – we don't need a moratorium</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>From Aristotle to Albanese</h2>
<p>For Aristotle (384–322 BC), for instance, the key was balance. Cities had to contain a minimum number of groups, such as citizens and slaves, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2008.00243.x">to work politically</a>. Similarly, a city’s population had to be balanced against the size of the territory it drew its resources from to enable each citizen (but not slave) to have what he called a “good life”. </p>
<p>Aristotle reputedly drew on the constitutions of what were then known as city states. These aren’t directly comparable to today’s cities but do make for good test cases with which to examine urban models. City states of the time, in the vanguard of urban life as they were, were equivalent to small towns of today and less connected and more homogeneous. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230845/original/file-20180807-191019-1brkjvb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230845/original/file-20180807-191019-1brkjvb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230845/original/file-20180807-191019-1brkjvb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230845/original/file-20180807-191019-1brkjvb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230845/original/file-20180807-191019-1brkjvb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230845/original/file-20180807-191019-1brkjvb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230845/original/file-20180807-191019-1brkjvb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230845/original/file-20180807-191019-1brkjvb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">City states in Ancient Greece were more like today’s small towns.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">from shutterstock.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>During the 20th century, as the world’s population grew, planners around the world tried to deliberately limit the size of cities. But how did they decide on the ideal size? </p>
<p>Planning theorist <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books/about/Town_planning_at_the_crossroads.html?id=KJJFAQAAIAAJ&redir_esc=yttps://books.google.com.au/books/about/Town_planning_at_the_crossroads.html?id=KJJFAQAAIAAJ&redir_esc=y">Lewis Keeble wrote</a> in the late 1950s that the ideal UK city size could be determined by setting the distance for citizens to reach the countryside. So, a resident in the centre of a town could reasonably be expected to walk to the edge of the city for a distance of two miles (3.2km). </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230847/original/file-20180807-191025-133jahn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230847/original/file-20180807-191025-133jahn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230847/original/file-20180807-191025-133jahn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=901&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230847/original/file-20180807-191025-133jahn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=901&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230847/original/file-20180807-191025-133jahn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=901&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230847/original/file-20180807-191025-133jahn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1132&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230847/original/file-20180807-191025-133jahn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1132&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230847/original/file-20180807-191025-133jahn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1132&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tokyo has successfully managed its population size.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">from shutterstock.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Under this concept, with a density of 50 people per hectare, the ideal city size would be 160,000. For a city, where the population would have access to public transport, Keeble estimated this would be around 4 million. </p>
<p>Keeble was the first to admit these calculations were naive. Yet a calculation of city size based on the biological limits of the human body, mixed with the use of public transport, echoes contemporary thinking. Cities that often top the <a href="https://pages.eiu.com/rs/753-RIQ-438/images/Liveability_Free_Summary_2017.pdf">liveability scale</a> – such as Melbourne and Vancouver – are universally mid-sized (around 4-5 million people) with low population density.</p>
<p>More recently, in the late 1990s, the Italian physicist Cesare Marchetti’s term “the 30-minute city”, first proposed in a <a href="http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/4071/">relatively obscure paper</a>, has been drawn into policy language.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-30-minute-city-how-do-we-put-the-political-rhetoric-into-practice-56136">'The 30-minute city': how do we put the political rhetoric into practice?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In the lead-up to the 2016 federal election, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull aimed for a deal to be struck between all levels of government, to deliver suburbs where residents can get to school or <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2016/s4452888.htm">work within 30 minutes</a>. And in a speech to the National Press Club two years earlier, Labor’s shadow minister for cities, Anthony Albanese, <a href="http://anthonyalbanese.com.au/address-to-the-national-press-club-canberra">said</a> he was “particularly attracted” to the concept of the 30-minute city.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>This is the simple concept that most people’s day-to-day work, educational, shopping or recreational activities should be located within 30 minutes’ walking, cycling or public commuting from their homes.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>It’s not the size that matters</h2>
<p>But a city’s liveability isn’t equal to its appeal for living and working in. Tokyo, the largest city in the world, will never top the liveability scale. Its infrastructure challenges are of a different order compared to Australia’s cities. The equivalent of Australia’s population passes <a href="https://www.railway-technology.com/projects/shinjuku-railway/">through the ticket barriers of Shinjuku</a>, its busiest station, in a week. </p>
<p>But these challenges are being managed quite successfully.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/five-lessons-from-tokyo-a-city-of-38m-people-for-australia-a-nation-of-24m-78335">Five lessons from Tokyo, a city of 38m people, for Australia, a nation of 24m</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>This should give population planners a clue to how to deal with a big urban Australia: </p>
<ol>
<li><p>Connecting cities. Urban, developed economies have understood that to use the surface areas that can be urbanised effectively they have to connect their large cities with smaller ones using high-speed rail. Large cities have the existing expensive infrastructure such as airports but the smaller cities are the ones that have the capacity to grow.</p></li>
<li><p>Connecting within cities. Transportation technologies are constantly evolving. While debates rage about infrastructure, from rail crossing to bike lanes, we are in fact in the middle of a revolution thanks to the uptake of a <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2018/7/23/17585814/lime-electric-scooter-bike-6-million-rides">range of low-speed electric vehicles</a>, such as scooters. Designing cities for these would benefit pedestrians (unlike cars) and would also anticipate the changes that are going to be necessary for an increasingly aged society.</p></li>
<li><p>Focus on small to medium cities. Even though the second-largest city in the world, Delhi, growing to the size of Tokyo without the same infrastructure is a scary prospect, the lion’s share of urban growth is happening in medium-sized cities. The top ten fastest-growing cities are all in Africa. The <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zinder">fastest growing city to 2035 is going to be Zinder</a> in Niger, for example, a city of 300,000. If Australia were to follow this global trend, policies should be focusing on Newcastle over Sydney and Bendigo over Melbourne.</p></li>
</ol>
<p>Ultimately, as Aristotle argued, cities are natural biological entities. Like all biological organisms they should have natural limits. Megacities of today are able to transcend those limits in ways that couldn’t have been imagined even 100 years ago. How long humanity can keep doing this is ultimately a question of biological destiny.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/101102/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marco Amati receives funding from the National Environmental Science Program's Clean Air and Urban Landscape's Hub; the Australian Research Council and the Smart Cities and Suburbs Program.</span></em></p>Planners have long tried to determine the ideal city size, and ideas have evolved with changing circumstances. But a good city depends more on the way it’s managed than on how many people it holds.Marco Amati, Associate Professor of International Planning, Centre for Urban Research, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/954422018-05-22T19:38:01Z2018-05-22T19:38:01ZXiong'an, Xi Jinping’s new city-making machine turned on<p>Behind mega urban projects often stand strong political wills. Xiong’an is called China’s number-one urban project, and it is <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/a-brave-new-world-xis-xiongan/">orchestrated by President Xi Jinping</a>. </p>
<p>China is midway through the <a href="https://www.economist.com/news/china/21640396-how-fix-chinese-cities-great-sprawl-china">largest urbanisation process in human history</a>. New cities have mushroomed in recent decades. The most prominent are <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Shenzhen">Shenzhen</a> and <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Shanghai">Pudong Shanghai</a>, both of which are now major global financial and business centres.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/with-a-bullet-chinas-high-speed-rail-dream-begins-to-take-flight-25597">With a bullet: China's high-speed rail dream begins to take flight</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Shenzhen and Pudong Shanghai were credited to Deng Xiaoping. China’s then leader <a href="http://en.people.cn/n3/2017/0403/c90000-9198362.html">pushed forward the construction of these cities from scratch</a>, to drive his agenda of national reform and opening up to the world.</p>
<p>After his first five-year term as president, it is clear that Xi Jinping’s political ambition is to equal or even surpass the records of Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping. Mao and Deng each ruled China for nearly three decades, in person and by selecting their successors.</p>
<p>Xi has proclaimed a “new era”, enthroned his “thoughts”, appointed his allies, and outlined national modernisation goals to 2035 and even as far ahead as 2050.</p>
<p>He also amended the Chinese Constitution to <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-xi-jinpings-lifetime-presidency-could-change-china-for-better-or-worse-92472">remove the two-term restriction</a> on the presidency. This was the final barrier to pursuing power after 2023, when he was due to step down.</p>
<p>What else? Xi needs a new city, with his name imprinted!</p>
<h2>Putting a new city on the map</h2>
<p>There are three mega-city regions in eastern China. Shenzhen is in the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/may/10/china-pearl-river-delta-then-and-now-photographs">Pearl River Delta</a>, Pudong Shanghai is in the <a href="http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1897065/how-economic-dynamism-yangtze-river-delta-flowing-inland">Yangtze River Delta</a>, so Xi’s new city must be in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/217207/original/file-20180502-153895-1hsieuj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/217207/original/file-20180502-153895-1hsieuj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/217207/original/file-20180502-153895-1hsieuj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217207/original/file-20180502-153895-1hsieuj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217207/original/file-20180502-153895-1hsieuj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217207/original/file-20180502-153895-1hsieuj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=642&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217207/original/file-20180502-153895-1hsieuj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=642&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217207/original/file-20180502-153895-1hsieuj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=642&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Xi Jinping’s new mega-city, Xiong’an (the area in red) will be located midway between Beijing, Tianjing and Shijiazhuang (click to enlarge).</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.google.com.au/maps/place/Xiongxian,+Baoding,+Hebei,+China/@39.0206138,115.7617431,9.06z/data=!4m5!3m4!1s0x35efa231eb92fcb5:0xb5dfe3f1103da7ee!8m2!3d38.99455!4d116.10865">Google Maps</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Xi selected Xiong’an, an underdeveloped area located centrally between Beijing, Tianjing and Shijiazhuang, the capital city of Hebei Province. Xiong’an has a vast water area, a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_resources_of_China">rare natural endowment in northern China</a>.</p>
<p>Xi <a href="http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201804/02/WS5ac122faa3105cdcf6515949.html">stressed the principles</a> of “world vision, international standards, Chinese characteristics and high goals” in planning and building Xiong’an. A “<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016718517303196">Millennium Plan</a>” and a “national strategy”, Xiong’an should be different from, or more ambitious than, its predecessor new cities. Shenzhen was created in the 1980s; Pudong Shanghai in the 1990s; Xiong’an should represent a city-making approach with Chinese characteristics in the 21st century.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/shanghai-a-modern-metropolis-born-of-a-refugee-crisis-61849">Shanghai, a modern metropolis born of a refugee crisis</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What’s the plan?</h2>
<p>On April 21, 2018, China’s official Xinhua News Agency <a href="http://english.xiongan.gov.cn/2018-04/21/c_129855751.htm">released the planning guidelines</a> for Xiong’an. This followed their endorsement by the Central Committee of the Chinese Community Party and the State Council. </p>
<p>These planning documents will guide the development of Xiong’an until 2035 and envision its long-term progress until the middle of this century. This aligns with Xi’s timelines for national modernisation goals.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/l1hXrz1F3Qg?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Xiong'an is presented as central to President Xi Jinping’s vision of national development for decades to come.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Key elements of the guidelines are:</p>
<ul>
<li><p><strong>visions:</strong> a green, ecological and liveable new area; an innovation-driven development; a demonstration area of coordinated development; and a pioneer in China’s modernisation strategy</p></li>
<li><p><strong>targets:</strong> 2035 – basic construction of a high-level socialist modern city that is green, low-carbon, smart, competitive, influential and harmonious with humans and nature; mid-21st century – comprehensive construction complete, a key pillar of the world-class Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei city region</p></li>
<li><p><strong>spatial specifications:</strong> green space 70%, development land 30% (a total area of around 530km²), arable land 18% (including permanent farming land 10%), population density 10,000 people/km²</p></li>
<li><p><strong>non-capital city functions transferred from Beijing:</strong> universities and research institutions, hospitals and health, finance, advanced services and high-tech industries</p></li>
<li><p><strong>priority industry sectors:</strong> new information technology, life and biological sciences, new materials, advanced modern services, and green and ecological agriculture</p></li>
<li><p><strong>transport connectivity:</strong> high-speed rail network – 20 minutes to the new Beijing airport, 30 minutes to Beijing and Tianjing, and 60 minutes to Shijiazhuang; expressway network – 60 minutes to Beijing and Tianjing, and 90 minutes to Shijiazhuang; 90% green transport share and 80% public transit share in vehicle transport in the initial development area; exploring intelligent driving and logistics systems.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>Can it be done?</h2>
<p>The targets suggest a new city with a population of 5 million erected by 2035 and completed by around 2050. Be mindful: Chinese city plans are normally “conservative” in setting targets.</p>
<p>Is the plan achievable? State ownership of land and a centralised planning system will ensure it happens at a speed and scale hardly paralleled elsewhere. Think of Shenzhen and Pudong Shanghai.</p>
<p>However, the most important factor is whether President Xi’s desired political pathway remains on track.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/95442/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Hu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Xiong’an is called China’s No.1 urban project. Orchestrated by President Xi Jinping, the mega-city to be built just over 100 kilometres south of Beijing is also very much a political project.Richard Hu, Professor, Faculty of Arts and Design, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/951982018-04-27T10:43:46Z2018-04-27T10:43:46ZWe calculated how much money trees save for your city<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/215984/original/file-20180423-94132-y5ighe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=165%2C0%2C4086%2C2142&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">For a megacity, Tokyo is rich in trees.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/gillyberlin/39726312995">gillyberlin/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/publications/files/wup2014-highlights.pdf">Megacities are on the rise</a>. There are currently 47 such areas around the globe, each housing more than 10 million residents. </p>
<p>More than half the global population now lives in urban areas, comprising about <a href="https://www.livescience.com/6893-cities-cover-earth-realized.html">3 percent of the Earth</a>. The ecological footprint of this growth is vast and there’s far more that can be done to improve life for urban residents around the world. </p>
<p>When it comes to natural spaces, trees are keystone species in the urban ecosystem, providing a number of services that benefit people. <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-03622-0">My research team has calculated</a> just how much a tree matters for many urban areas, particularly megacities. Trees clean the air and water, reduce stormwater floods, improve building energy use and mitigate climate change, among other things. </p>
<p>For every dollar invested in planting, cities <a href="https://www.fs.fed.us/ucf/supporting_docs/UCF-Brief-Feb2018.pdf">see an average US$2.25 return</a> on their investment each year. </p>
<h2>Measuring trees</h2>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=yz-Kh1gAAAAJ&hl=en">Our team</a>, led by Dr. David Nowak of the USDA Forest Service and Scott Maco of Davey Institute, develops the tree benefits software <a href="http://www.itreetools.org">i-Tree Tools</a>. </p>
<p>These tools simulate the relationship between trees and ecosystem services they provide. These services can include food, clean air and water, climate and flood control, pollination, recreation and noise damping. We currently don’t simulate many services, so our calculations actually underestimate the value of urban trees. </p>
<p>Our software can simulate how a tree’s structure – such as height, canopy size and leaf area – affects the services it provides. It can estimate how trees will reduce water flooding; or explore how trees will affect air quality, building energy use and air pollution levels in their community. It can also allow users to inventory trees in their own area.</p>
<p>Our systematic aerial surveys of 35 megacities suggest that 20 percent of the average megacity’s urban core is covered by forest canopy. But this can vary greatly. Trees cover just 1 percent of Lima, Peru, versus 36 percent in New York City. </p>
<p><iframe id="UNDLB" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/UNDLB/7/" height="450px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>We wanted to determine how much trees contribute to human well-being in the places where humans are most concentrated, and nature perhaps most distant. In addition, we wanted to calculate how many additional trees could be planted in each megacity to improve the quality of life.</p>
<h2>How tree density affects a city</h2>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2017.07.016">We looked in detail at 10 megacities around the world</a>, including Beijing, Cairo, Mexico City, Los Angeles and London. These megacities are distributed across five continents and represent different natural habitats. <a href="http://www.naturalearthdata.com/downloads/10m-cultural-vectors/10m-urban-area/">Cairo was the smallest</a>, at 1173 square kilometers, while Tokyo measured in at a whopping 18,720. </p>
<p>For most cities, we looked at Google Maps aerial imagery, randomly selecting 500 points and classifying each as tree canopy, grass, shrub and so on. </p>
<p><iframe id="s5Lqg" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/s5Lqg/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>We calculated that tree cover was linked to significant cost savings. Each square kilometer saved about $0.93 million in air pollution health care costs, $20,000 by capturing water runoff, and $478,000 in building energy heating and cooling savings.</p>
<p>What’s more, the median annual value of carbon dioxide sequestered by megacity tree cover was $7.9 million. That comes out to about $17,000 per square kilometer. The total CO2 stored was valued at $242 million, using a measure called <a href="https://19january2017snapshot.epa.gov/climatechange/social-cost-carbon_.html">the social cost of carbon</a>.</p>
<p>The sum of all annual services provided by the megacity trees had a median annual value of $505 million. That provides a median value of $967,000 per square kilometer of tree cover.</p>
<p><iframe id="be6mJ" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/be6mJ/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Trees in your city</h2>
<p>An entire urban forest can provide services for a good life.</p>
<p>All of the cities we studied had the potential to add additional trees, with about 18 percent of the metropolitan area on average available. Potential spots included areas with sidewalks, parking lots and plaza areas. The tree’s canopy could extend above the human-occupied area, with the trunk positioned to allow for pedestrian passage or parking. </p>
<p>Want to conserve forests and plant more trees in your area? Everyone can take action. City and regional planners can continue to incorporate the planning for urban forests. Those who are elected to office can continue to share a vision that the urban forest is an important part of the community, and they can advocate and support groups that are looking to increase it. </p>
<p>Individuals who cannot plant a tree might add a potted shrub, which is smaller than a tree but has a leafy canopy that can contribute similar benefits. For the property owner wanting to take charge, our i-Tree software can assist with selecting a tree type and location. A local arborist or urban forester could also help.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/95198/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Theodore Endreny works for ESF. He receives funding from the USDA Forest Service and NUCFAC. </span></em></p>In an increasingly urban world, trees can make a major difference. One study found that, for every dollar invested in planting, megacities saw a $2.50 return on their investment.Theodore Endreny, Professor of Water Resources & Ecological Engineering, State University of New York College of Environmental Science and ForestryLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/842242017-10-10T13:22:26Z2017-10-10T13:22:26ZWhat’s behind the huge increase in breast cancer rates in China?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186839/original/file-20170920-16414-18qqy8r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/download/confirm/289309139?size=medium_jpg">Guschenkova/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Breast cancer is the most common cancer among women in China, according to the <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.3322/caac.21338/full">latest data</a> from China’s national cancer registry. An analysis of the data reveals that the cancer has increased at a rate of around 3.5% a year from 2000 to 2013, compared with a <a href="https://www.cancer.org/content/dam/cancer-org/research/cancer-facts-and-statistics/annual-cancer-facts-and-figures/2015/cancer-facts-and-figures-2015.pdf">drop of 0.4% a year</a> over the same period in the US. </p>
<p>The analysis also reveals that breast cancer rates are higher in urban areas of China than in rural areas. And the higher the population density, the higher the rate. For small cities (population below 500,000), the incidence of breast cancer is 30 per 100,000. For medium-sized cities (population between 500,000 to 1,000,000), it is 40 in 100,000. And for large cities (population above 1m), the incidence rate is 60 per 100,000 women. </p>
<p>With the rapid development of China’s economy, more and more people have moved from rural areas and towns to large cities. As a result, many “megacities” have sprung up. By 2014, China had six megacities with populations above 10m. It is very likely that urbanisation is having a big impact on breast cancer incidence in China.</p>
<p>Here is a list of some of the factors that may be behind the rise in breast cancer incidence in China: </p>
<p><strong>Childbearing</strong>: Having <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/8178795">more than one child</a> lowers breast-cancer risk. With the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-child_policy">one-child policy</a> in place since 1979, most women – especially if they worked in the city – had to strictly follow the policy in order to avoid being fined. Although the one-child policy rule was replaced in 2015 with a two-child policy rule, the possible benefit on breast cancer incidence will probably take <a href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/landia/article/PIIS0140-6736(16)31405-2/abstract">15 to 20 years to show</a>.</p>
<p>Research also shows that the women who have their first child at age <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2145231">35 or younger</a> tend to have a protective benefit from pregnancy. However, in China, many women have chosen to delay having a child as a result of <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?isbn=0739180460">work pressure and cultural change</a>. </p>
<p>Women are also less likely to breastfeed than previous generations, which may be another contributing factor. Research has shown that both pregnancy and breastfeeding reduce a woman’s risk of developing cancer, because they reduce the lifetime number of menstrual cycles. As a result, women are exposed to less oestrogen. (<a href="http://www.nhs.uk/Conditions/Cancer-of-the-breast-female/Pages/Causes.aspx">Oestrogen</a> can stimulate breast cancer cells to grow.) It has also been <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15987443">hypothesised</a> that breast cells need to mature in order to produce milk and mature cells are more resistant to becoming cancer cells.</p>
<p>Researchers in China have found <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11670-012-0009-y">associations</a> between these “reproductive factors” – including oral contraceptives and hormone replacement therapy (HRT) – and the rise in breast cancer incidence in China. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/189359/original/file-20171009-6971-y2fb9r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/189359/original/file-20171009-6971-y2fb9r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189359/original/file-20171009-6971-y2fb9r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189359/original/file-20171009-6971-y2fb9r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189359/original/file-20171009-6971-y2fb9r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189359/original/file-20171009-6971-y2fb9r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189359/original/file-20171009-6971-y2fb9r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">China’s one-child policy was in place till 2015.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/download/confirm/136834085?src=sSE4cT7ho1Le5Tmei7Q4Yw-1-13&size=medium_jpg">TonyV3112/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>Stress</strong>: Stress – which is more likely to be experienced in large cities – has been linked to <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16476222">increased risk</a> of developing cancer. Although stress may not directly cause cancer, it does <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3079864/">affect the levels of various hormones</a> and it <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3341916/">suppresses the immune system</a>. And, once cancer has developed, stress is believed to aid its <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3037818/">progression</a>. </p>
<p><strong>Lifestyle</strong>: In modern China, women are generally less physically active than they were in previous generations. A <a href="https://www.biomedcentral.com/about/press-centre/science-press-releases/20-04-2016">study</a> published in the International Journal of Behavioral Nutrition and Physical Activity, shows that levels of physical activity for adults in China fell by nearly half between 1991 and 2011, and they declined more rapidly for women than for men. </p>
<p>An unhealthy diet is also increasingly common in urban China, with a proliferation of fast food outlets. This has resulted in an <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3951516/">increase in obesity among Chinese women</a>. </p>
<p>Increased <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3832299/">alcohol assumption</a> has long been associated with the increased risk of developing breast cancer and a <a href="http://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/91/4/12-107318/en/">World Health Organisation bulletin</a> notes that, in China, alcohol consumption is increasing faster than in other parts of the world.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/189358/original/file-20171009-6979-wj18ep.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/189358/original/file-20171009-6979-wj18ep.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189358/original/file-20171009-6979-wj18ep.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189358/original/file-20171009-6979-wj18ep.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189358/original/file-20171009-6979-wj18ep.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189358/original/file-20171009-6979-wj18ep.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189358/original/file-20171009-6979-wj18ep.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">McDonalds in Shenzhen, China.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/download/confirm/178962470?src=508M7CTswR5w9nlFCZKuvg-1-7&size=medium_jpg">ArtWell/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>Ageing</strong>: <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2626623/">Ageing</a> is the biggest risk factor for breast cancer. Women are <a href="http://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/china-life-expectancy">living longer in China</a>, which is a <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.3322/caac.21338/full">key factor</a> related to the increased incidence of breast cancer in the country. As people get older, there is more genetic damage and <a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/molecular-basis-of-aging-and-breast-cancer-1948-5956.1000187.pdf">less ability to repair the damages</a>.</p>
<h2>Small improvements</h2>
<p>Even though the prevalence of breast cancer among women in China is lower than in many <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk">developed countries</a>, the rapid increase in incidence of the disease – which is also being <a href="https://theconversation.com/confronting-breast-cancer-is-crucial-to-indias-economic-development-81717">witnessed in India</a> – is cause for great concern. </p>
<p>Because of China’s large population, even with a small percentage of improvement on cancer prevention, a sizeable number of women’s lives could be saved. There are many risk factors that can be reduced by raising cancer awareness and having better education on diet, exercise, stress reduction as well as improving breast cancer screening. Public health authorities in China <a href="http://www.who.int/tdr/publications/documents/health-research-china.pdf">can play a crucial role</a> in developing well-defined strategies to tackle the issue and reduce the breast cancer burden in China.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/84224/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jin-Li Luo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Breast cancer rates in China are rising, and are expected to continue rising for the next three decades.Jin-Li Luo, Senior Bioinformatician, University of LeicesterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/832572017-09-19T10:13:48Z2017-09-19T10:13:48ZCan the world’s megacities survive the digital age?<p>Today, megacities have become <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/5991">synonymous</a> with <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/print/china-urbanization-megacity-growth-model-by-zhang-jun-2017-09">economic growth</a>. In both developing and developed countries, cities with populations of 10 million or more account for <a href="https://qz.com/666153/megacities-not-nations-are-the-worlds-most-dominant-enduring-social-structures-adapted-from-connectography/">one-third to one-half of their gross domestic product</a>.</p>
<p>Many <a href="https://futurism.com/heres-a-look-at-the-smart-cities-of-the-future/">analysts</a> and <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2013/01/22/new-world-bank-report-offers-policymakers-roadmap-building-resilient-sustainable-cities">policymakers</a> think this trend is here to stay. The rise of big data analytics and mobile technology should spur development, they assert, transforming metropolises like Shanghai, Nairobi and Mexico City into so-called “smart cities” that can leverage their huge populations to power their economies and <a href="http://www.labcities.com/smart-cities-past-present-future/">change the power balance in the world</a>.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"885268940330385411"}"></div></p>
<p>As technology researchers, however, we see a less rosy urban future. That’s because digitization and crowdsourcing will actually undermine the very foundations of the <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/redefining-global-cities/">megacity economy</a>, which is typically built on some combination of manufacturing, commerce, retail and professional services.</p>
<p>The exact formula differs from region to region, but all megacities are designed to maximize the productivity of their massive populations. Today, these cities lean heavily on <a href="http://www.investopedia.com/articles/03/012703.asp">economies of scale</a>, by which increased production brings cost advantages, and on the savings and benefits of <a href="http://www.nber.org/chapters/c7977.pdf">co-locating people and firms</a> in neighborhoods and industrial clusters.</p>
<p>But technological advances are now upending these old business models, threatening future of megacities as we know them.</p>
<h2>Manufacturing on the fritz</h2>
<p>One classic example of a disruptive new technology is <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-3d-printing-and-whats-it-for-9456">3-D printing</a>, which enables individuals to “print” everything from ice cream to machine parts. </p>
<p>As this streamlined technique spreads, it will eliminate some of the many links in the global production process. By taking out the “middle men,” 3-D printing may ultimately reduce the supply chain to just a <a href="https://reconasia.csis.org/analysis/entries/3-d-printings-tipping-point/">designer on one end and a manufacturer on the other</a>, significantly reducing the production costs of <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-3d-printing-could-disrupt-asias-manufacturing-economies-69633">manufactured goods</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186092/original/file-20170914-9029-1pxbmef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186092/original/file-20170914-9029-1pxbmef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186092/original/file-20170914-9029-1pxbmef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186092/original/file-20170914-9029-1pxbmef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186092/original/file-20170914-9029-1pxbmef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186092/original/file-20170914-9029-1pxbmef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186092/original/file-20170914-9029-1pxbmef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Will 3-D printing put you out of a job next?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/creative_tools/8080034547">Creative Tools</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>That’s good for the profit margins of transnational companies and consumers, but not for factory cities, where much of their transportation and warehousing infrastructure may soon become redundant. Jobs in manufacturing, logistics and storage, <a href="http://www.supplychain247.com/article/the_implications_of_3d_printing_for_the_global_logistics_industry">already threatened across many large sites</a>, may soon be <a href="https://theconversation.com/does-the-next-industrial-revolution-spell-the-end-of-manufacturing-jobs-80779">endangered globally</a>. </p>
<p>In short, 3-D printing has transformed the economies of scale that emerged from industrialization into economies of one or few. As it spreads, many megacities, particularly Asian manufacturing centers like Dongguan and Tianjin, both in China, can expect to see widespread disruption to their economies and work forces.</p>
<h2>Decline of the shopping mall</h2>
<p>The retail sector is experiencing a similar transformation. Shopping malls, for example, which once thrived in megacities, are now suffering from the advent of e-commerce. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/marketing-and-sales/our-insights/the-future-of-the-shopping-mall">value proposition of shopping malls</a> was always that their economies of scale were location-dependent. That is, for malls to be profitable, they had to be sited near a large consumer base. Densely populated megacities were perfect.</p>
<p>But as stores have moved online, megacities have lost this competitive advantage. While online shopping has not completely replaced brick-and-mortar retail, its ease and convenience have forced many <a href="https://www.jacobinmag.com/2014/04/the-last-shopping-mall">shopping malls to close</a> worldwide. In the U.S., <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/04/retail-meltdown-of-2017/522384/">mall visits declined 50 percent</a> between 2010 and 2013. </p>
<p>Cities in China, where the government has sought to <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2017/01/22/china-consumption-growth-down-and-heading-lower-fast/#1d902161e23b">build its national economy on consumption</a>, will be hit particularly hard by this phenomenon. China has the world’s largest e-commerce market, and it is estimated that <a href="https://retail.emarketer.com/article/china-glut-of-shopping-malls/59318504ebd4000b2ceae033">one-third of the country’s 4,000 shopping malls</a> will shut down within the next five years. </p>
<p>As mobile technology continues its spread, accessing even the most remote populations, this process will accelerate globally. Soon enough, retail websites like Amazon, Alibaba and eBay will have turned every smartphone into a <a href="https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/china-e-commerce-revolution">virtual shopping mall</a>, especially if the <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Amazon-Prime-Air/b?node=8037720011">dream of drone delivery</a> becomes a reality.</p>
<h2>The new work force: Robots, AI and the human cloud</h2>
<p>Changes in the business world will also affect cities worldwide. </p>
<p>Thanks to artificial intelligence, or AI, which makes it possible <a href="http://www.allchinareview.com">to automate numerous tasks</a>, both manual and cognitive, these days it’s goodbye, human bank tellers and fund managers, <a href="https://theconversation.com/are-robots-taking-over-the-worlds-finance-jobs-77561">hello robots</a>.</p>
<p>Even in jobs that cannot be easily automated, the digitized <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-uberisation-of-work-is-driving-people-to-co-operatives-65333">gig economy</a> is putting people into <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/a4b6e13e-675e-11e5-97d0-1456a776a4f5">direct competition with a global supply of freelancers</a> to do tasks both menial and specialized.</p>
<p>There are certainly benefits to crowdsourcing. Using both AI and the crowdsourced knowledge of thousands of medical specialists across 70 countries, the <a href="https://www.humandx.org/">Human Diagnosis Project</a> has built a global diagnosis platform that’s free to all patients and doctors – a particular boon to people with limited access to public health services. </p>
<p>But by taking collaboration virtual, the “<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/a4b6e13e-675e-11e5-97d0-1456a776a4f5">human cloud</a>” business model is also making the notion of offices obsolete. In the future, medical professionals from various specialties will no longer need to work near to each other to get the job done. The same holds for other fields. </p>
<p>In a world without office space, traditional business and financial centers like New York and London would feel the pain, as urban planning, zoning and the <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/04/death-of-a-real-estate-broker-10-ways-the-industry-is-changing/">real estate market</a> struggle to adjust to firms’ and workers’ changing needs.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186096/original/file-20170914-9029-1an8xl1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186096/original/file-20170914-9029-1an8xl1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186096/original/file-20170914-9029-1an8xl1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186096/original/file-20170914-9029-1an8xl1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186096/original/file-20170914-9029-1an8xl1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186096/original/file-20170914-9029-1an8xl1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186096/original/file-20170914-9029-1an8xl1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">What would Tokyo be without its office space?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Yodalica</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Crisis in the making</h2>
<p>At some point, all this change may end up meaning that economies of scale matter much, much less. If that happens, population size – currently the motor of the modern metropolis – will become a <a href="http://www.megacities.uni-koeln.de/">liability</a>. </p>
<p>Megacities have long struggled with the downsides of density and rapid urbanization, including communicable disease, <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-critical-about-critical-infrastructure-73849">critical infrastructure shortages</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/study-us-cities-have-worse-inequality-than-mexico-with-rich-and-poor-living-side-by-side-76125">rising inequality</a>, <a href="https://www.ted.com/talks/robert_muggah_how_to_protect_fast_growing_cities_from_failing">crime and social instability</a>. As their economic base erodes, such challenges are likely to grow more pressing.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"848540941027864577"}"></div></p>
<p>The damage will differ from city to city, but we believe that the profound shifts underway in retail, manufacturing and professional services will impact all of the world’s <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/redefining-global-cities/">seven main types of megacities</a>: global giants (Tokyo, New York), Asian anchors (Singapore, Seoul), emerging gateways (Istanbul, São Paulo), factory China (Tianjin, Guangzhou), knowledge capitals (Boston, Stockholm), American middleweights (Phoenix, Miami) and international middleweights (Tel Aviv, Madrid). </p>
<p>And because 60 percent of global <a href="http://www.mckinsey.com/global-themes/urbanization/urban-world-mapping-the-economic-power-of-cities">GDP is generated by just 600 cities</a>, struggle in one city could trigger cascading failures. It’s conceivable that in 10 or 20 years, floundering megacities may cause the next global financial meltdown.</p>
<p>If this forecast seems dire, it’s also predictable: Places, like industries, must adapt with technological change. For megacities, it’s time to start planning for a disrupted future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/83257/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Research shows that technology disrupts economies of scale, turning megacities’ huge populations from strength to liability. To survive, megacities, like companies, must adapt.Christopher H. Lim, Senior Fellow in Science, Technology & Economics at RSIS, Nanyang Technological UniversityVincent Mack, Associate Research Fellow in RSIS, Nanyang Technological UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/823582017-08-18T12:19:04Z2017-08-18T12:19:04ZHow tranquil spaces can help people feel calm and relaxed in cities<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/182225/original/file-20170816-32661-1u6lzxd.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A little piece of calm.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Pexels</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>When you think about somewhere that is tranquil, what do you imagine? Whether it’s a wide open meadow, a deserted beach, or a river as it lazily flows along on a warm summer’s afternoon, <a href="https://http://bradscholars.brad.ac.uk:8080/bitstream/handle/10454/5561/EPB%20138-061_final%20for%20printing_DC2.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y">research shows</a> tranquillity is mainly found in natural outdoor environments. </p>
<p>These tend to be places where man-made noise is at a low level, but where natural sounds – such as bird song – can be relatively high. Such studies have also shown a link between these types of environments and levels of relaxation, stress reduction and even longevity and pain relief.</p>
<p>It’s clear then that tranquil spaces are good for your health – and yet the world’s population is <a href="http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/news/population/world-urbanization-prospects-2014.html">becoming increasingly urban</a>. There are more trucks, cars, and motorcycles on the roads than ever before resulting in higher levels of noise, pollution and litter. If you live in a busy city, finding tranquillity in your daily life can be a challenge.</p>
<h2>Maximum tranquillity</h2>
<p>To find out what actually makes somewhere tranquil, we developed the <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Rob_Pheasant/publication/281400420_Tranquillity_rating_prediction_tool_TRAPT/links/566e933908ae1a797e4069d9.pdf">Tranquillity Rating Prediction Tool</a>. The tool measures two factors, the level of man-made noise – usually traffic – as well as the percentage of natural and contextual features in view. This includes things like if a place has a water feature, and lots of greenery. or if a place gives you a view of a religious or historic building – all of which our research shows help to boost the tranquillity of a place.</p>
<p>Based on these factors, the tool can predict the tranquillity of a place on a scale of 0-10. This is based on laboratory studies where people were asked to rate video clips of a range of environments for tranquillity levels. These clips included diverse settings, from a busy market place to natural coastal locations far from any development. Using this method we can not only identify existing (and sometimes overlooked) tranquil spaces, but also offer advice on how urban areas can be made more tranquil. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/182287/original/file-20170816-32661-1xx7bi1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/182287/original/file-20170816-32661-1xx7bi1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182287/original/file-20170816-32661-1xx7bi1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182287/original/file-20170816-32661-1xx7bi1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182287/original/file-20170816-32661-1xx7bi1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182287/original/file-20170816-32661-1xx7bi1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182287/original/file-20170816-32661-1xx7bi1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The High Line park in Manhattan, New York, is a good example of a tranquil space that is part of a wider urban environment.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=24266371">InSapphoWeTrust</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Our research shows that green spaces on side roads, which are often hidden from view, tend to have high levels of tranquillity due to the screening effects of buildings from the noise of busy streets. Pedestrianised squares in towns and cities were also shown to be acceptably tranquil because of the distance from traffic – some of these squares also featured grass and trees.</p>
<p>Similarly, well-maintained side streets – especially with avenues of trees – or heritage buildings can also score highly due to good visual attributes combined with low traffic noise. Close proximity to water was also shown to be good for tranquillity because it is naturally nice to look at and is relaxing to listen to. </p>
<h2>Creating tranquil spaces</h2>
<p>To boost the tranquillity of an area, the first step is to reduce man-made noise. Obviously on a city scale this could be done by things like rerouting traffic, lorry bans and low-noise road surfacing, as well as noise barriers. But in terms of your own surroundings, anything you can do to reduce unnatural noise the better. Higher and longer fences and walls next to the road can help here. As can creating a small quiet area with perhaps a natural-sounding water feature close by.</p>
<p><a href="http://online.liebertpub.com/doi/abs/10.1089/acm.2009.0531">Increasing the percentage of natural features</a> through “greening” can also help to boost the tranquillity of an area. Introducing more trees, shrubs, or trellising to “hide” building facades, makes people feel less stressed and calmer in their surroundings – so go wild with the greenery.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/182393/original/file-20170817-13456-1slh5p3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/182393/original/file-20170817-13456-1slh5p3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182393/original/file-20170817-13456-1slh5p3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182393/original/file-20170817-13456-1slh5p3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182393/original/file-20170817-13456-1slh5p3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182393/original/file-20170817-13456-1slh5p3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182393/original/file-20170817-13456-1slh5p3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Back Bay in Boston, US, is a great example of the benefits of ‘greening’ residential areas.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Having “natural” sounds can also help to make a place feel more tranquil. This could be done by installing a water feature or pond. This which will not only help in terms of relaxation but it will also encourage water fowl and birds.</p>
<p>What all this shows is that creating a refuge from the din of city life doesn’t have to be a huge task. And it is often neglected green spaces that can be re-imagined as havens of tranquillity. </p>
<p>So next time you’re feeling stressed out, try and find a tranquil space, or even better make one of your own – that way your can get your little bit of calm anytime you want.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/82358/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Greg Watts does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Research shows tranquility can help to boost levels of relaxation, reduce stress and even provide pain relief.Greg Watts, Professor of environmental acoustics, University of BradfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/674992016-12-01T07:29:07Z2016-12-01T07:29:07ZWe can cut emissions in half by 2040 if we build smarter cities<p>As a planet, we have some serious climate targets to meet in the coming years. The <a href="http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9485.php">Paris Agreement</a>, signed by 192 countries, set an aspirational goal of limiting global warming to 1.5ᵒC. The <a href="https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/?menu=1300">United Nations Sustainable Development Goals</a>, set to be achieved by 2030, commit the world to “<a href="https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sdg13">take urgent action</a>” on climate change.</p>
<p>All this will require ridding our economies of carbon. If we’re to do so, we need to completely rethink our cities.</p>
<p>The UN’s peak climate body showed in its <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/">most recent report</a> that cities are crucial to preventing drastic climate change. Already, cities contribute <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/unfccc/sbsta40/140610_urban_environment_Christ.pdf">71% to 76% to energy-related carbon emissions</a>. </p>
<p>In the Global South, energy consumption and <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg3/ipcc_wg3_ar5_chapter12.pdf">emissions in urban areas tend to be way higher than those in rural areas</a>. Future population growth is expected to take place <a href="http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/news/population/world-urbanization-prospects-2014.html">almost entirely in cities and smaller urban settlements</a>. Unfortunately, those smaller centres generally lack the capacity to properly address climate change. </p>
<p>China’s “<a href="http://www.bjreview.com.cn/quotes/txt/2015-08/21/content_631043.htm">New-type Urbanisation Policy</a>” aims to raise its city populations from 54.2% in 2012 to 60% in 2020. This will mean building large urban infrastructure projects, and investing trillions of dollars into new developments. Meanwhile, <a href="http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/india-needs-250-b-investment-for-urban-infrastructure-venkaiah/article6478338.ece">India’s sheer volume of urbanisation and infrastructure needs are phenomenal</a>. </p>
<h2>The problem with infrastructure</h2>
<p>Infrastructure contributes to greenhouse gas emissions in two ways: through construction (for example, the energy footprints of cement, steel and aluminium used in the building process) and through the things that go on to use that infrastructure (for example, cars or trains using new roads or tracks). </p>
<p>In a <a href="http://www.nature.com/articles/doi:10.1038/nclimate3169">recent study</a>, my colleagues and I have shown that the design of today’s transportation systems, buildings and other infrastructure will largely determine tomorrow’s CO<sub>2</sub> emissions.</p>
<p>But by building climate-smart urban infrastructure and buildings, we could cut future emissions in half from 2040 onwards. We could reduce future emissions by ten gigatonnes per year: almost the same quantity currently being emitted by the United States, Europe and India <a href="http://cdiac.ornl.gov/GCP/carbonbudget/2016/">put together (11 gigatonnes)</a>. </p>
<p>We assessed cities’ potential to reduce emissions on the basis of three criteria: the emissions savings following upgrades to existing infrastructure; emissions savings from using new, energy-efficient infrastructure; and the additional emissions generated by construction. </p>
<p>In established cities, we found that considerable progress can be made through refurbishment of existing infrastructure. But the highest potential is offered by construction of new, energy-efficient projects from the beginning. </p>
<p>The annual reductions that could be achieved by 2040 by using new infrastructure is three to four times higher than that of upgrading existing roads or buildings. </p>
<p>With this in mind, governments worldwide must guide cities towards low-carbon infrastructure development and green investment. </p>
<h2>Urbanisation is about more than megacities</h2>
<p>Significant opportunities exist to promote <a href="http://news.berkeley.edu/2014/01/06/suburban-sprawl-cancels-carbon-footprint-savings-of-dense-urban-cores/">high-density living</a>, build urban set-ups that mix residential, work and leisure in single spaces, and create better connectivity within and between cities. The <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg3/ipcc_wg3_ar5_chapter12.pdf">existing window of opportunity</a> to act is narrowing over time, as the <a href="https://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/Archive/Files/studies/United%20Nations%20(2001)%20-%20The%20Components%20of%20Urban%20Growth%20in%20Developing%20Countries.pdf">Global South develops rapidly</a>. It should not be missed. </p>
<p>Besides global megacities such as Shanghai and Mumbai, smaller cities must also be a focus for lowering emissions. <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg3/ipcc_wg3_ar5_chapter12.pdf">Studies</a> have shown a paradox for these places: the capacity for governance and finance are lower in the smaller cities, despite the fact that the majority of future urban populations will grow there, and they will expand quicker than their larger cousins. </p>
<p>We must give up on our obsession with megacities. Without building proper capacity in mid- and small-sized cities to address climate solutions, we cannot meet our climate goals. </p>
<p>Perhaps most important is raising the level of ambition in the existing climate policies in cities of all sizes, making them far-reaching, inclusive and robust. Despite the rhetoric, the scale of real change on ground from existing cities climate actions are <a href="https://theconversation.com/ipcc-chair-hoesung-lee-we-can-meet-2-c-global-warming-target-if-we-act-fast-65418">unproven and unclear</a>. </p>
<p>Existing cities’ climate mitigation plans and policies, such as in Tokyo, London, Bangkok, and activities promoted by networks such as <a href="http://www.iclei.org/">ICLEI</a>, <a href="http://www.c40.org/">C40</a>, <a href="http://www.covenantofmayors.eu/index_en.html">Covenant of Mayors for Energy and Environment</a> are a good start; they must be appreciated but further strengthened. </p>
<p>But, to further support these good ideas, the world urgently needs support measures for urban mitigation from local to global levels together with a tracking framework and agreed set of indicators for measuring the extent of progress towards low-carbon future. </p>
<p>Only if we start with cities, big and small, will we manage to limit warming to 1.5°C.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/67499/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shobhakar Dhakal has closely worked with many international scientific communities (IPCC, Future Earth, Global Carbon Project, Global Energy Assessment, Urban Climate Change Research Network and others), and to some extent with the policy communities. He has received funding for research and capacity building activities from many organizations in the past but all of his activities are on scholarly domain. </span></em></p>Future population growth is expected to take place almost entirely in cities. We won’t fight climate change without them.Shobhakar Dhakal, Associate Professor, Asian Institute of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/441052015-07-27T10:30:12Z2015-07-27T10:30:12ZHow women are reclaiming their right to public space in Delhi<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89072/original/image-20150720-12527-1ifsp9r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Melissa Butcher</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Urban redevelopment in India over recent decades has had particular implications for women. While the economic deregulation of the 1990s opened up new possibilities for work, leisure and relationships, it has also led to new stresses. Cities such as New Delhi have become sites for experimentation, autonomy and aspiration for women. Yet against these images of emancipation can be juxtaposed everyday risks and vulnerabilities. </p>
<p>Contradictions abound in a space that values the woman’s body as a liberalised commodity. Women are under constant scrutiny: for what they wear, how they behave, where they are going, who they are with, at what time of day or night. They are under pressure to conform to familiar boundaries of tradition and class. Challenging these boundaries carries the risk of psycho-social dissonance and assault of various kinds. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/AQR6cB1DXzY?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">That Day After Everyday: Filmmaker Anurag Kashyap tackles the issue of women’s right to public space.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Perhaps it is no coincidence that the increasing number of women working in the IT industry – or socialising in bars and restaurants – arose in tandem with the rise of cultural nationalist politics in India. Following the rape and murder of young student Jyoti Singh in New Delhi in December 2012, some held that responsibility for violence against women should be attributed to “<a href="http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Rapes-occur-in-India-not-Bharat-RSS-supremo-Bhagwat/articleshow/17880248.cms?">western lifestyles</a>”. Public debates have also focused on other forms of the “outsider” as a source of fear and hostility on Delhi’s streets, naming <a href="http://www.hindustantimes.com/newdelhi/pm-warns-of-footloose-migrants-from-rural-areas/article1-981257.aspx">rural migrants</a> a “menace in society”. </p>
<h2>Bearer of tradition</h2>
<p>Clearly, violence against women in Delhi is not a new phenomenon that has arisen out of economic liberalisation and urban redevelopment. Yet the intense focus on the death of Jyoti Singh and subsequent cases is indicative of a cultural shift. This young woman, from a provincial background but “aspirational”, represented what “world class” Delhi was supposed to afford women: safe access to public space and a cosmopolitan lifestyle. </p>
<p>Such attacks highlight the contradictions held within the body of the woman. She must embody the progressive city but also remain the bearer of tradition measured by skirt lengths. The presence of young professional women in Delhi’s public spaces may be desirable to legitimate claims of “global city” status. However, in reality, this access is conditional and based on maintaining a cultural order inflected by a moral discourse of <a href="http://www.hera-single.de/about/respectability/contesting-respectability/">respectability</a>. </p>
<p>As writers such as <a href="http://www.penguinbooksindia.com/en/content/why-loiter">Shilpa Phadke</a> argue, women must manufacture purpose in order to access the city, they cannot just “loiter”. Much of this purpose is non-sexualised conduct such as engaging in family activities or shopping in the new mega-malls. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89539/original/image-20150723-22821-1w4qkfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89539/original/image-20150723-22821-1w4qkfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89539/original/image-20150723-22821-1w4qkfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89539/original/image-20150723-22821-1w4qkfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89539/original/image-20150723-22821-1w4qkfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89539/original/image-20150723-22821-1w4qkfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89539/original/image-20150723-22821-1w4qkfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89539/original/image-20150723-22821-1w4qkfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mumbai’s women discuss need for social spaces.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/bmwguggenheimlab/8342844996/in/photolist-dHega7-dHef59-dH8PH2-dHeeCm-bxUQyE-dHegH9-dHedky-dHegWC-dH8RPk-bLRsWV-bLPweB-bLPwge-bxUQrY-bLPwtc-bxUQGm-bxUQEQ-bLPwj2-bLPwhn-bLPwoa-bxUQn1-bxUQmm-bxUQq7-bLPw8z-bLPwck-hHNS4C-dqUMgz-4U9qaj-LhQBF-v2GN72-jftdGz-vxmGMV-dqV2hv-cujUw7-cujUFq-cujUid-cujU8j-gSocZF-cBtBHQ-af3gw5-c5i6h9-49Rx12-6YmL9r-raBBe1-7m4J92-binrYH-bv85qq-8xqkCY-7gdsaC-cmWysq-qBxqFg">Solomon R. Guggenheim Foundation</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Women navigate the city “giving back” through aggressive language, evading stares, reclaiming spaces such as rooftops and parks. They seek safety in numbers, knowing when to wrap a scarf more tightly around their head or cover their knees when sitting. These appear to be everyday skills to cope with the city and to manage its discomfort. </p>
<p>While in these actions women may appear fragile, they are in fact asserting a place in Delhi, especially when reassured by anonymity or the protection afforded by socio-economic capacity such as owning a car. This is an understanding of Delhi opposed to the computer-generated images of independent, happy women in new condominiums that look down from advertising hoardings throughout the city. </p>
<p>Clearly, women are not necessarily timid or immobile in the face of Delhi’s aggression. They are taking part in producing space and seeking out pleasure. There are limits, but these limits can be stretched. Roaming may be curtailed for some who have to remain in the line of sight of home, and choices restricted at times by the pressures of respectability. Yet, women have the capacity to generate ambiguity through their presence, disrupting cultural rules that attempt to demarcate a woman’s place in an unequal city.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/44105/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Melissa Butcher receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council (2013-15), and the Humanities in Europe Research Area (2013-16). She is affiliated with the Electoral Reform Society, Green Party (UK), the Soil Association, the Rivers and Canals Trust, the Palestine Solidarity Campaign, and a trustee of Immediate Theatre (Hackney, London).</span></em></p>Global cities must guarantee women safe access to public space. But in cities like New Delhi, this access is conditional and bound by moral discourse.Melissa Butcher, Reader in Social and Cultural Geography, Birkbeck, University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/427992015-06-26T10:07:36Z2015-06-26T10:07:36ZMegacity drought: Sao Paulo withers after dry ‘wet season’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/85762/original/image-20150619-3343-9qmfsu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Historic: weather patterns similar to what's causing the drought in California are happening in Brazil. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/_hudson_/4163567741/in/photolist-hC8iaQ-qDTdj-7kVnCH-ntEWAq-nqUBnW-9vMWjB-ntEKy6-ntEN72-nKSwq4-8CVtnS-3b9C8z-v4AaM-dWUC2A-9hc9Z7-6aYB5D-LyHCL-6mQAAp-bmMkdH-ivXGRd-6mQDN8-9hrX6g-hC9FbP-p5v6No-6bRXBF-oD72QK-6BpdWQ-6mQCFB-oucHnS-oLEnNL-7DqL2t-7DmhDV-7DuBUQ-5WuhpH-qFm7na-kvaYoR-qjfqfr-5V1GAX-9aXKr3-eoYfXW-hC9Htz-hC8SGY-6bvzGF-6mUTtW-6mQH98-7Dq7TE-4b3CPP-fgjNvA-fg5yX6-dZQCLn-sS3KXH">Hudsӧn/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Exceptional drought, extreme temperatures, unprecedented drops in reservoir levels and threatening water shortages for millions of people have dominated headlines in California in recent years. Unfortunately, Californians are not the only people being stressed with the “water crisis.”</p>
<p>Citizens of one of the most densely populated areas in South America – the Sao Paulo metropolitan area (SPMA) in southeastern Brazil – are struggling with one of the nastiest water crises in decades.</p>
<p>With over 20 million people and the main financial and economic center of Brazil, this region is under the influence of the South American monsoon system and receives the largest fraction of its precipitation during the Austral summer, from October to March. Yet in the last four years, rain gauge stations near the most important reservoirs supplying water to the city have been reporting growing deficits in precipitation. Last year saw the worst since at least 1961, which has been followed by another dry year. </p>
<p>To aggravate these conditions, daily records of high temperatures during these summers have increased <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evapotranspiration">evapotranspiration</a>, accelerating drought conditions, similar to what has been observed in California.</p>
<p>A planet with over seven billion people and limited freshwater resources is already showing environmental exhaustion and signaling humans have crossed the line of sustainability. Our capacity to mitigate the negative effects of environmental changes and how fast we can adapt is limited by multiple factors. But as a megacity – a complex and often disorganized human conglomerate – the population of Sao Paulo, Brazil is particularly exposed to the effects of extreme weather events.</p>
<h2>Blocked storm patterns</h2>
<p>The climatic factors influencing the drought in California and in Sao Paulo are likely interconnected. Cycles in the Pacific sea surface temperature that occur on decadal timescales are coupled to changes in atmospheric circulation that affect weather patterns worldwide. In some regions, atmospheric conditions are such that they <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-climate-change-is-making-californias-epic-drought-worse-40030">block the passage of cold fronts</a> that cause the storms to bring precipitation, changing the <a href="http://fortune.com/2015/04/06/brazil-california-water-crisis-drought/">path of these rain events</a>.</p>
<p>As long as these <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/tropics-prime-suspect-behind-warm-cold-split-over-north-america-during">blocking conditions</a> persist, there will be regions undergoing dry conditions, whereas others will be extremely wet. The North Pacific has been entering a phase that will likely <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-the-warm-blob-in-the-pacific-and-what-can-it-tell-us-about-our-future-climate-40140">increase the probability</a> of these blocking mechanisms that favor dry conditions in California and other regions of the planet, including Sao Paulo.</p>
<p>Of course, similar oceanic and atmospheric conditions have occurred in the past and will continue to occur in the future. The problem that we should confront without hesitation is: how can global warming aggravate these extreme conditions, particularly in locations with high rates of urban growth such as Sao Paulo? How fast should governments act and how much should be invested to mitigate these unprecedented conditions?</p>
<h2>Rationing</h2>
<p>In the Sao Paulo metropolitan region, the main water supply system, which provides water for about 8.8 million inhabitants, reached critical levels in early 2015. It had only <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-29/rio-to-sao-paulo-plan-for-water-cutoffs-after-downplaying-crisis">5% storage</a> of its 1.3 billion cubic meter capacity on January 2015 and <a href="http://www.apolo11.com/reservatorios.php?step=m">15%</a> at the end of the <a href="http://especiais.g1.globo.com/economia/crise-da-agua/nivel-dos-reservatorios/">rainy season in March 2015</a>. An impending ration mandate could leave residents without access to water for a <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/2015/feb/11/brazil-drought-ngo-alliance-50-ngos-saving-water-collapse">few days a week</a>.</p>
<p>The main water utility has already reduced pressure in the pipes to force conservation, a strategy that has cut off running water to millions of customers for hours and even days, depending on where one lives. Unlike California, isolated rain showers have occurred in Sao Paulo, and the desperate population, particularly in poor districts, has stored the rainwater in open containers and buckets to save it for the days of water shortage. Other citizens are drilling through their <a href="http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/americas/article4370134.ece">basement floors</a> to extract the precious water leaving open wells.</p>
<p>As a consequence, the entire state of Sao Paulo, with a population of 40 million inhabitants, is undergoing a <a href="http://www.latimes.com/world/brazil/la-fg-ff-brazil-drought-dengue-20150424-story.html">deadly dengue</a> fever outbreak. In the SPMA, where the <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/brazil-city-calls-in-army-to-fight-dengue-1429292950">situation is really dramatic</a> because of the limited access to water, the government created many improvised ambulatories throughout the city to attend the population with symptoms of the disease. Officials go door-to-door searching for infectious mosquito larvae and educating the population about the disease. However, all these measures have proven to be inefficient to control the dengue larvae proliferation.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/85765/original/image-20150619-3359-1u1hn5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/85765/original/image-20150619-3359-1u1hn5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/85765/original/image-20150619-3359-1u1hn5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85765/original/image-20150619-3359-1u1hn5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85765/original/image-20150619-3359-1u1hn5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85765/original/image-20150619-3359-1u1hn5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85765/original/image-20150619-3359-1u1hn5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85765/original/image-20150619-3359-1u1hn5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Two very dry wet seasons based on data going back to 1979.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/its-supposed-be-rainy-season-brazil-so-where-has-all-water-gone">NOAA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>What the future will bring for the growing population of the SPMA remains unknown. In the short term, it is possible the blocking conditions that have prevented storms from coming through will become less persistent in the next summer and increase the probability of extreme precipitation in the region. However, the temporary relief will not solve the imminent water crisis in Sao Paulo, nor in California, in the years to come.</p>
<p>Populations and governments in the world need to raise awareness about limited freshwater resources so the present sets the right stage for a sustainable future. No matter where we live or the rate of economic growth of a given nation, populations are, and will always be, vulnerable to water scarcity.</p>
<p>Resilience depends on numerous factors, but how populations will cope with disasters of various magnitudes is largely dictated by political actions, socioeconomic development and education.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/42799/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Leila Carvalho does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The same persistent weather pattern bringing hot, dry conditions to California is likely connected to a punishing drought in the Sao Paulo area in Brazil.Leila Carvalho, Associate Professor of Meteorology and Climatology, University of California, Santa BarbaraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/417722015-05-19T20:05:08Z2015-05-19T20:05:08ZWe need a smart urban revolution, and Asia is just the place to do it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/81810/original/image-20150515-25422-hhkgvx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Hong Kong: a showcase for Asian urban development.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3AHong_Kong_Night_Skyline.jpg">CarolSpears/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Back in the 1950s, the number of people living in cities was <a href="http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/news/population/world-urbanization-prospects-2014.html">about 750 million</a>. That rose to 2.9 billion by 2010 and is <a href="http://www.unfpa.org/urbanization">predicted to hit 5 billion by 2030</a>. As more of the world’s people call cities home, the challenge is to transform urban areas so that they offer a safe and sustainable place to live for generations to come.</p>
<p>Much of this growth will be in Asia, so the way Asian cities are designed, constructed and powered will clearly have a major influence on global efforts to moderate greenhouse gas emissions and diminish the impact of global warming.</p>
<p>With 8 million people crammed into what is an increasingly vertical space, Hong Kong is the evolving model for Asian urbanization. So it’s fitting that Hong Kong was the place where I and several fellow Nobel Laureates signed a <a href="http://www.nobel-cause.de/hong-kong-2014/memorandum/hong-kong-memorandum.pdf">memorandum</a> endorsing the need for cities to take a central role in minimizing the harm caused by climate change.</p>
<p>How will cities do this, not just in Asia but right around the globe? Our Hong Kong meeting – the fourth <a href="http://asiasociety.org/hong-kong/4th-nobel-laureates-symposium-global-sustainability-4c-changing-climate-changing-cities">Nobel Symposium on Global Sustainability</a>, attended by Nobel Laureates, senior government officials, climatologists, behavioural scientists, engineers, architects, and business leaders from Hong Kong and mainland China – both defined the problem and discussed strategies.</p>
<h2>Pollution and power</h2>
<p>As climate scientists John Schellnhuber and Johan Rockstrom of the <a href="https://www.pik-potsdam.de/">Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research</a> (which co-hosted the meeting) pointed out, the first rule of capitalism is “don’t kill your customers.” But people in cities are <a href="http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2014/air-pollution/en/">already dying from respiratory disease</a>. Anyone who has visited an Asian city will understand that this is a consequence of massive air pollution. </p>
<p>While the browny-grey clouds of particulate pollution that hang over these cities partially blot out the Sun and have a cooling effect, the sources that generate it – largely coal and automobile exhausts – also release greenhouse gases that raise temperatures in the longer term. Successive speakers at the symposium made it very obvious that China is determined to cut its coal use, fast. </p>
<p>Hong Kong itself currently generates half of its electricity from coal (see figure 6 <a href="http://www.enb.gov.hk/sites/default/files/en/node2605/Consultation%20Document.pdf">here</a>) and, according to local executive Christine Loh, will <a href="http://www.enb.gov.hk/en/files/New_Air_Plan_en.pdf">cut that to 20% by 2020</a>. China has famously pledged to <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-china-climate-deal-at-last-a-real-game-changer-on-emissions-34148">peak its total greenhouse emissions by 2030</a> and Jiang Kejun of China’s Energy Research Institute emphasized that the aim is to source 70% of its electricity from renewables by 2050, if not long before. </p>
<p>That has to happen. Apart from the human costs, Nobel-winning economist Jim Mirrlees estimates that China’s GDP will fall dramatically if CO<sub>2</sub> emissions continue unchecked. And China, with its focus on solar and wind technology plus the new <a href="http://www.cdb.com.cn/english/">China Development Bank</a>, will be doing the “right thing” (both globally and in its own self interest) by supporting the dissemination of renewable energy in emerging economies. Apart from being on the wrong side of history, any argument that selling coal is likely to drive the economies of the future seems unrealistic.</p>
<h2>The rising tide of action</h2>
<p>A major concern for big coastal cities is, of course, sea-level rise. With storm surges, an increase of only 15 cm will evidently inundate much of Bangkok, while China’s low-lying, heavily industrialised Pearl River Delta – home to several megacities, including Hong Kong – is also very <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2010-11-30/climate-change-increasing-flood-risk-in-hong-kong-update1-">vulnerable to flooding</a>. Then Nobel-winning chemist and director of Japan’s RIKEN research institute, Ryoji Nyori, told the symposium that of the 34 million people in the greater Tokyo area, 15 million are at acute risk of ocean and river flooding. </p>
<p>The buildings and even the streets will need to be smart, too. Hong Kong architect Peter Cookson-Smith discussed underground water storage for cities and described how skyscraper foundations can serve as hybrid ventilation and heating/cooling systems. Meanwhile Roger Dennis, who leads the Sensing City Project in Christchurch, pointed out how building such technology into structures, pavements and the like can be used to moderate energy usage. </p>
<p>At a more direct level, Dennis described how Los Angeles has achieved a <a href="http://bsl.lacity.org/led.html">63% cut in its lighting bill</a> simply by switching to LED streetlights. An image of a light pole topped with a solar collector and a small wind generator illustrated how cities might also use their streetlights to generate power. All such micro-generation techniques will be made easier with the advent of affordable storage systems, like that <a href="https://theconversation.com/has-tesla-cracked-the-grid-energy-storage-problem-41131">recently unveiled by Tesla</a>, or the new <a href="http://www.ceic.unsw.edu.au/centers/vrb/technology-services/vanadium-redox-flow-batteries.html">vanadium redox flow battery</a> developed at the University of New South Wales.</p>
<p>From Canberra, ACT Labor MP Simon Corbell described how, using a high feed-in tariff (reimbursement of people generating power from solar on their roof) Australia’s capital is driving rapidly towards its <a href="http://www.environment.act.gov.au/energy/90_percent_renewable">90% renewable energy target</a>. Meanwhile, Copenhagen’s Mayor of Technical and Environmental Affairs, Morten Kabell, told us that his city is <a href="http://e360.yale.edu/feature/copenhagens_ambitious_push_to_be_carbon_neutral_by_2025/2638">well on its way to being carbon-neutral by 2025</a>, is already heating and cooling itself using highly efficient central facilities and has 45% of its commuting population on bicycles. Top priority for snow clearing goes to the greatly enhanced system of bike lanes! </p>
<h2>Far-sighted vision</h2>
<p>Cities are dynamic places, and as such their politicians can afford to be adventurous. Frustrated with the inaction of national governments in thrall to vested interests, New York-based political theorist Benjamin Barber is doing his utmost to establish a <a href="http://www.globalparliamentofmayors.org/">Global Parliament of Mayors</a>, which will meet for the first time in Britain in October. </p>
<p>Embracing ambitious ideas will inevitably help innovative cities stay at the forefront of moves to decrease energy costs and clean up the atmosphere. For instance, Columbia and LSE academic Saskia Sassen suggested that every surface in the emerging global city should be have an environmental function. What did she mean? Solar energy generation, “living” green walls, passive heating and cooling, or other applications that may as yet be just a flash of barely perceived insight in some innovator’s mind?</p>
<p>For all this to happen, the world will need to witness a Third Industrial Revolution, focused on (and by) intensive, interactive urban environments and driven by a spectrum of innovators working in industry, government and, as Schellnhuber suggested, in “100,000 laboratories” – which, in a sense, include the expanding cities of our planet. </p>
<p>Clearly this massive transition is both an enormous challenge and offers incredible economic opportunities that, delivered by Asia’s burgeoning megacities, are right in Australia’s neighbourhood. As always, the future belongs to those with the courage to embrace it, while the fearful who turn resolutely to the past set us all up for disaster. Australia’s cities can help too – we have both the creativity and the awareness; we just need to point ourselves in the right direction.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/41772/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter C. Doherty chairs the Board for the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Systems Science. This role is unpaid. His research on immunity to the influenza A viruses is funded as part of an NHMRC Program grant. His lay books "The beginner's guide to winning the Nobel prize", "A light history of hot air", Sentinel chickens: what birds tell us about our health and the world" and "Pandemics: what everyone needs to know" discuss, among many other science related themes, aspects of climate and environmental science. He is also a member of The Conversation's board of directors.</span></em></p>Nobel Laureates met recently in Hong Kong to sign a memorandum calling for cities to help guard against climate change. As the most creative places on the planet, big cities are the perfect place to meet this challenge.Peter C. Doherty, Laureate Professor, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/294982014-08-06T13:40:15Z2014-08-06T13:40:15ZAfrica’s go-getting cities offer an entrepreneurial launchpad<p>Ask ten people what they think about Africa’s rising cities and you get ten different opinions. The only thing they will agree on is that traffic is awful. In truth, 52 cities with more than a million inhabitants are becoming a magnet for innovation which has echoes in the industrial revolution. </p>
<p>Take a look at sub-Saharan Africa, the region with the highest number of people involved in early-stage entrepreneurial activity. <a href="http://www.gemconsortium.org/docs/download/3106">According to the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor</a> 39.9% of Nigerian and Zambian adults are either starting a business or have run one for less than 3.5 years. M-Kopa, Ushahidi, Helvetic Solar Contractors, Headboy Industries, and Jobberman are just a few examples of start-ups you should watch out for in Africa’s urban centres. </p>
<p>One problem is that the figures to describe what is happening in the midst of this fast-paced urbanisation are often missing, disparate or sparse. But our experience in Nairobi, <a href="http://www.unep.org/pdf/poster_nairobi.pdf">whose population has surged</a> from 350,000 in 1963 to more than 3m at the last census in 2009, can help us tell the story of what the rise of these urban centres means for those living and working there.</p>
<h2>Coming home</h2>
<p>Western-educated returnees thrive in Africa’s cities and we have met people whose American education has kept opening doors. Savings brought back can give workers the means to buy a house, while their new-found expertise can give them a foot in the door at the biggest African companies. </p>
<p>One woman returnee we spoke to had found work at a major mobile operator and was then savvy enough to join executives who left to set up a venture using <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M-Pesa">M-Pesa, a mobile payment system</a> through which 25% of Kenya’s GNP flows. Her education and ability to get things done quickly got her promoted to become head of administration. Consider that <a href="http://www.phonearena.com/news/Mobile-penetration-in-Africa-is-now-at-80-and-growing-fast_id50014">mobile penetration in Africa is up to 80%</a> and growing fast, and it is easy to see this avenue for growth and opportunity repeated through the continent.</p>
<p>As <a href="http://www.amazon.co.uk/Success-Africa-Insights-Continent-Rise/dp/1937134466">Jonathan Berman notes in Success in Africa</a>, both the corridors of government and corporate Africa buzz with graduates from the world’s top universities. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
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<span class="caption">Rising tide for house prices. Cape Town beach huts.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/flowcomm/8750830117/in/photolist-ekhhVk-ekopd5-ekhH8B-f8pXry-f8pUT1-f8q5jo-f8aHYK-f8aAh4-obhCP-obhES-fTnJj2-aDfYms-amj5WZ-fpsLox-tk7ux-ekCyV3-4xuoLS-96nFtd-96jJ5k-96nHXA-96nEQL-96jCkK-96jH74-axCS9V-axFz7E-axCTwa-QNPsc-eUvhUL-eUiAd6-eUiMA8-eUuNdm-eUiEGi-eUiCEH-eUiu7B-eUvdq7-eUuUKf-Ua8vn-axCSxk-47QkpZ-ay6hDQ-7FPBUF-ayencb-aybEia-sAB4L-obhHN-sAAUc-aDfyCW-aDfxNw-aDbztt-9zCh5S/">flowcomm</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In South Africa, an estimated <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-14/south-african-skilled-workers-return-on-global-economic-weakness.html">359,000 highly-skilled workers have returned in the past seven years</a>. They are able to overcome three of the biggest obstacles: access to property, capital, and global networks. Loans are notoriously expensive in Africa. A 20% interest rate is not an exception. Property prices, on the other hand, have skyrocketed in Africa’s cities. </p>
<p>So coming back with some savings gives returnees a head-start – and there is evidence that the <a href="http://gga.org/stories/editions/aif-15-off-the-mark/reverse-exodus">willingness to return is real</a>. Angel investors and venture capitalists are also rare creatures (though increasing in number). Here, returnees are able to connect to the diaspora and Western investors more easily. Their ability to build bridges between the different worlds is key. </p>
<p>In recent years, not just individuals but entire companies have relocated – coming with the same advantages. <a href="http://irokotv.com/">Look at iRoko</a>, a sort of Netflix for <a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/baobab/2014/07/nigerian-films-try-move-upmarket">Nollywood movies</a>, which moved from London to Lagos recently.</p>
<h2>Moving up</h2>
<p>Our research in Nairobi found plenty of examples of the age-old migration away from rural areas. One woman we met mirrored the experience of many by leaving a poor lakeside fishing family after her education came to a close with the end of primary school (which is free). Families need money, and so a Matatu minibus ride into the city saw her hunting for and finding domestic work. Employment stability isn’t great though and a sudden sacking soon followed, but crucially, opportunities are many. A new job followed, with new connections and more domestic work on top of that, and money flows back to the family. </p>
<p>In Ghana, the urban population <a href="http://migratingoutofpoverty.dfid.gov.uk/research/migrationandurbanisation/urbanisation_conference/abstracts">is predicted to grow to 63% by 2025</a> from 43.8% in 2000; and much of this is due to domestic work for women and girls. </p>
<p>Progress is not as smooth as it is for well-educated returnees but opportunities still exist. In <a href="http://topdocumentaryfilms.com/welcome-lagos/">Welcome to Lagos, a three-part mini-series</a> the BBC portraits their resourcefulness and determination. On the Olusosun rubbish dump, for example, Eric makes a living collecting plastic, bottles and metals. Saving up some money he records a song which is later heard on the radio. </p>
<p>As people move from agricultural work into urban jobs, productivity increases. A <a href="http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/africa/lions_on_the_move">recent McKinsey report estimates</a> that labour productivity growth in Africa added 2.7% to GDP growth in the period 2000-2008. It is a progress that is closely tied to the big urban centres.</p>
<h2>Progress</h2>
<p>And then there are the hustlers, often Nairobi-born and bred and always looking for the next chance to move a step up the ladder. They might sell cigarettes while they’re at school and move on to run a barber shop or repair cars to make ends meet. In short, the city breeds fast-thinking sales people. And when structural changes help nurture their talents, good things can happen.</p>
<p>We encountered one man whose hustling combined well with a friend who returned from the west with a computer science degree. They started to develop their own software and win contracts from local councils and small businesses, allowing them to start hiring and growing. </p>
<p>One thing that helped inspire that progress was <a href="https://www.kenyaembassy.com/pdfs/The%20Constitution%20of%20Kenya.pdf">a new constitution in 2010</a> which partially devolved power and control of budgets to counties, eliminated the red tape of centralised government and granting more autonomy over growth strategies. At the most basic level, this results in local government contracts and creates new business opportunities.</p>
<p>Africa’s urban centres may mean different things to different people, but they are at the <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/african-dawn-meet-the-entrepreneurs-transforming-their-continent-9112591.html">heart of Africa’s dynamism and progress</a>. Nairobi itself <a href="http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/africa/article4166857.ece">gets some negative press in the west</a>, but a <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/mfonobongnsehe/2014/02/04/30-most-promising-young-entrepreneurs-in-africa-2014/">new generation of entrepreneurs</a> has been created, which is forming a fundamental part of Africa’s growth. </p>
<p>Franz Mathis, a historian, argues that <a href="http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CCcQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.oapen.org%2Fdownload%3Ftype%3Ddocument%26docid%3D449477&ei=nZHFU7DAGPG10QXHuoC4CA&usg=AFQjCNEF4CXkFIg1siyDXrx_yeGqXzwEvw&bvm=bv.70810081,d.d2k">urbanisation was a necessary condition for industrialisation</a>. Only in big cities did entrepreneurs gain access to capital, a qualified labour force, new technology and an infrastructure that allowed them to access a sizeable market. This is exactly what is happening in African cities today as the continent experiences <a href="http://forumblog.org/2014/05/top-10-cities-forum-africa-2014/">urbanisation at a faster rate than any other</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/29498/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Ask ten people what they think about Africa’s rising cities and you get ten different opinions. The only thing they will agree on is that traffic is awful. In truth, 52 cities with more than a million…Florence Karaba, PhD Researcher, University of BathChristian Stadler, Professor of Strategic Management, Warwick Business School, Warwick Business School, University of WarwickLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.