tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/meng-wanzhou-63729/articlesMeng Wanzhou – The Conversation2021-09-27T20:49:59Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1687392021-09-27T20:49:59Z2021-09-27T20:49:59ZMeng and the two Michaels: Why China’s hostage diplomacy failed<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423403/original/file-20210927-15-q59fab.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=801%2C0%2C1915%2C2079&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Michael Kovrig flashes a V for victory sign alongside his wife and sister at Pearson International Airport after his return to Canada. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Frank Gunn </span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 175px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/meng-and-the-two-michaels--why-china’s-hostage-diplomacy-failed" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>On the face of it, the fact that Canada’s “two Michaels” — Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor — boarded a Canadian government aircraft in Beijing at about the same time that Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou was being released from her extradition hearing bail requirements in Vancouver might indicate to some that China’s “<a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/02/17/why-hostage-diplomacy-works/">hostage diplomacy</a>” was successful. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/meng-for-the-two-michaels-lessons-for-the-world-from-the-china-canada-prisoner-swap-168737">Meng for the two Michaels: Lessons for the world from the China-Canada prisoner swap</a>
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<p>There was a clear link between Meng’s plea bargain arrangement with the United States Department of Justice, her subsequent release in Vancouver and the release of the two Michaels after more than 1,000 days in captivity. </p>
<p>Despite <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/8223366/china-denies-retaliatory-arrests-freed-2-michaels-health-reasons/">consistent Chinese denials</a> over many months that their arrest was in retaliation for the detention of Meng under the <a href="https://www.treaty-accord.gc.ca/text-texte.aspx?id=101323">Canada-U.S. extradition treaty</a>, the fact that the two cases were resolved simultaneously (even <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-58687071">before Kovrig had been sentenced by the Chinese court</a>) stripped away any pretence that there was no connection.</p>
<p>In the past, in cases involving <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/west-unites-against-detention-of-foreign-nationals-in-signal-to-china-11613397836">detention in China of foreign nationals</a> when there have been unrelated disputes with their country of origin, the release of the “hostages” has not come for several weeks or months after the resolution of the original dispute. </p>
<p>That’s allowed China to maintain the fiction that it doesn’t detain people for retaliatory purposes and to argue that Chinese law must run its course. This time, even that fig leaf was removed. </p>
<h2>Deferred prosecution agreement</h2>
<p>In order to secure her release, Meng was given only the lightest of punishments, a deferred prosecution arrangement that required her to neither plead guilty nor pay a fine. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/snc-lavalin-deferred-prosecution-deals-arent-get-out-of-jail-free-cards-113095">SNC-Lavalin: Deferred prosecution deals aren't get-out-of-jail free cards</a>
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<p>All she was required to do was consent to a statement of facts that outlined the U.S. view of what happened <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-47046264">when she allegedly misled global bank HSBC into believing that a Huawei subsidiary operating in Iran was not in fact controlled by Huawei</a>. </p>
<p>The deferred prosecution agreement will expire in 2022, and then the case will be closed. </p>
<p>Do the terms of this settlement demonstrate that the U.S. caved to Chinese hostage diplomacy by cutting such a generous deal? </p>
<p>The need to free Kovrig and Spavor was no doubt a factor given the pressure the Canadian government was putting on <a href="https://www.thestar.com/business/2021/02/23/white-house-signals-hard-line-on-buy-american-as-ottawa-urged-to-push-for-exemption.html">U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration</a> to withdraw the extradition request. But it was far from the only consideration. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423420/original/file-20210927-19-5j4uxi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Biden looks down as Justin Trudeau speaks." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423420/original/file-20210927-19-5j4uxi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423420/original/file-20210927-19-5j4uxi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423420/original/file-20210927-19-5j4uxi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423420/original/file-20210927-19-5j4uxi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423420/original/file-20210927-19-5j4uxi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423420/original/file-20210927-19-5j4uxi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423420/original/file-20210927-19-5j4uxi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">U.S. President Joe Biden listens as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaks during the G7 summit in Cornwall, England, in June 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Kevin Lamarque/Pool via AP)</span></span>
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<p>The Department of Justice has emerged from the case with their minimum requirements met, namely an acknowledgement of their ability to enforce American sanctions on foreign companies if financial transactions go through the U.S. That’s not a bad outcome considering the flimsiness of the American legal case against Meng in the first place. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3144192/us-improperly-provided-evidence-judge-meng-wanzhous-canadian">threadbare nature of the evidence</a> against Meng was increasingly exposed in the British Columbia Supreme Court extradition hearings as Meng’s legal team challenged the case presented by Canadian Crown attorneys on behalf of the U.S. Justice Department. </p>
<h2>No smoking gun</h2>
<p>Apart from the selective use of evidence by U.S. authorities and the fact that no harm was suffered by HSBC despite being allegedly “misled” by Meng, there was no smoking gun. </p>
<p>There was also the possibility that the B.C. court <a href="https://bc.ctvnews.ca/abuse-in-extradition-case-meng-s-legal-team-argues-for-stay-in-proceedings-1.5540283">would find abuse of process</a> given the clumsy way both the RCMP and the Canada Border Services Agency handled Meng’s arrest, and dismiss the case on these grounds. </p>
<p>In other words, the American case against Meng was hardly watertight. <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-huawei-tech-canada/u-s-in-talks-with-huawei-cfo-meng-on-resolving-criminal-charges-wsj-idUSKBN28D3J8?il=0">They had even offered Meng a plea bargain</a> in December 2020 that would have required her to plead guilty. Huawei rejected that offer. </p>
<p>Rescuing their case with the plea bargain they finally struck was a way for the American authorities to head off the growing possibility of a total loss.</p>
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<img alt="A crowd of people wearing masks gather in an airport arrival hall." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423413/original/file-20210927-19-3uy7uk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423413/original/file-20210927-19-3uy7uk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423413/original/file-20210927-19-3uy7uk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423413/original/file-20210927-19-3uy7uk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423413/original/file-20210927-19-3uy7uk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423413/original/file-20210927-19-3uy7uk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423413/original/file-20210927-19-3uy7uk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Supporters of Meng Wanzhou gather at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport in China’s Guangdong Province to greet her as she returned from Canada.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)</span></span>
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<p>Even though the Meng/two Michaels case has poisoned Canada-China relations, it was actually a U.S.-China dispute. Resolving it — not primarily to free the two Michaels but to remove a U.S.-China irritant — was a low-cost “give” by the Biden administration to get the issue out of the way so it can establish a better dialogue with Beijing. </p>
<p>So what did China achieve with its high-profile hostage diplomacy exercise? It not only fuelled harsh criticism from much of the developed world (which may not bother it too much), but it provided the motivation for Canada <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/7641177/canada-arbitrary-detention-coalition-2-michaels/">to take the lead</a> in producing the <a href="https://www.international.gc.ca/world-monde/issues_development-enjeux_developpement/human_rights-droits_homme/arbitrary_detention-detention_arbitraire.aspx?lang=eng">Declaration Against Arbitrary Detention in State to State Relations</a>, now endorsed by dozens of countries. </p>
<h2>Trudeau didn’t give in to pressure</h2>
<p>China has no one but itself to blame for being put in the spotlight on this issue. It also failed to succeed in short-circuiting the Canadian and U.S. legal process. </p>
<p>That would have happened if Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government had succumbed to pressure early on to end extradition proceedings against Meng and release her, as a number of <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/letter-release-meng-1.5625669">retired Canadian politicians and diplomats had proposed</a>.</p>
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<img alt="Justin Trudeau smiles from behind a microphone with a Canadian flag behind him." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423414/original/file-20210927-23-skl4h7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423414/original/file-20210927-23-skl4h7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423414/original/file-20210927-23-skl4h7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423414/original/file-20210927-23-skl4h7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423414/original/file-20210927-23-skl4h7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423414/original/file-20210927-23-skl4h7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423414/original/file-20210927-23-skl4h7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Prime Minister Justin Trudeau takes questions on Parliament Hill after announcing that the two Michaels had been released from detention in China.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang</span></span>
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<p>The Chinese may have miscalculated in believing that by seizing the Michaels, Canada would cave almost immediately and terminate the extradition process. </p>
<p>The fact that the Canadian government insisted that <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-meng-wanzhou-prisoner-1.5626744">the legal process, slow as it was, had to play out</a> — thus keeping Meng under restricted bail conditions in Canada for almost three years — was surely not something the Chinese leadership had bargained on. It should be a lesson to China in the future, even though Kovrig and Spavor unfortunately had to pay the price of the Chinese miscalculation.</p>
<h2>What’s next for Canada-China relationship?</h2>
<p>Now that the Meng/two Michaels affair has been resolved, attention will turn to the future of Canada-China relations. </p>
<p>The immediate logjam has been removed, but it will take a long time for the waters to flow smoothly. By resorting to taking hostages rather than working through diplomatic channels, China has destroyed decades of slowly nurtured goodwill and lost the trust of the Canadian public, as well as public opinion in many other parts of the world. </p>
<p>China can pretend to shrug off those concerns, and swagger on the world stage, but despite its impressive economic growth and growing military prowess, it cannot afford to antagonize all the people all the time. Hostage diplomacy is ultimately a losing proposition, a lesson that China has hopefully learned.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/168739/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hugh Stephens does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Did the U.S. cave to China’s exercise in hostage diplomacy when it signed a plea deal with a Huawei executive that resulted in freedom for the two Michaels? Or was it China that miscalculated badly?Hugh Stephens, Executive Fellow, School of Public Policy; Distinguished Fellow, Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, University of CalgaryLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1687372021-09-26T19:30:23Z2021-09-26T19:30:23ZMeng for the two Michaels: Lessons for the world from the China-Canada prisoner swap<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423228/original/file-20210926-125304-10b7wh1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C458%2C6434%2C3815&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Michael Kovrig embraces his wife Vina Nadjibulla after arriving at Pearson International Airport. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Frank Gunn </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As Canada <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/spavor-kovrig-in-canada-1.6189640">celebrates the return</a> of the <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/8220637/meng-wanzhou-two-michaels-china-reaction/">“two Michaels,”</a> it’s worth asking what this <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2021/09/hostage-diplomacy-is-against-chinas-interests/">hostage diplomacy saga</a> tells us about Canada-China relations and global affairs more broadly. </p>
<p>Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor were airborne soon after Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou, held in Vancouver, reached a deferred prosecution agreement with the United States government.</p>
<p>Both China and Canada can claim to have achieved their goals — the two Michaels flew back to Canada to be greeted by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau while <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/9/25/huawei-cfo-flying-back-to-china-after-deal-with-us">Meng Wanzhou had a triumphant return to China</a>. </p>
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<p>But China has emerged the big winner after quietly signalling <a href="https://financialpost.com/opinion/why-canada-shouldnt-agree-to-swap-meng-wanzhou-for-the-two-canadian-prisoners-in-china">its willingness to exchange prisoners</a> for some time. Beijing retaliated for Meng’s 2018 arrest by detaining Kovrig and Spavor in short order. When Meng was freed, so was the Canadian duo, surprising pundits and experts. It was tit for tat, Meng for the Michaels. </p>
<p>Many experts had expected China to wait a few months to maintain the claim that the two Canadians had been arrested for real crimes. </p>
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<p>The swiftness of the Chinese action signalled, instead, a more important message to the world from the governing Chinese Communist Party: Don’t mess with us. </p>
<p>China seeks the same global privileges the United States currently has and takes for granted. When it comes to the <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/global-affairs/news/2017/06/address_by_ministerfreelandoncanadasforeignpolicypriorities.html">“rules-based international order”</a> so beloved by Canada and like-minded states, the U.S. government is both proponent and periodic abstainer.</p>
<p>In other words, the U.S. plays by the rules when it’s in the American national interest to do so. It breaks those rules when it wants to. </p>
<h2>Playing by the rules when it’s convenient</h2>
<p>China’s government wants the same privilege. After its “<a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/20031702">peaceful rise</a>” to world power, it wants to be feared, respected and to possess the same ability to bend and change the rules. Canadian policy-makers would be wise to understand China seeks equality and respect, and learn from history to forge a more effective China strategy. </p>
<p><a href="https://oxfordre.com/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780199329175.001.0001/acrefore-9780199329175-e-609">Getting along with the Americans</a> has been central to Canadian foreign policy for more than a century. It’s time to learn how to apply the lessons learned to effectively manage the relationship with what is now the world’s other superpower. </p>
<p>A look back in time reveals that tit-for-tat hostage diplomacy did not start with Meng’s arrest. </p>
<p>In 1967, British authorities <a href="https://www.fcchk.org/correspondent/fifty-years-on-the-riots-that-shook-hong-kong-in-1967/">cracked down</a> on protesters in Hong Kong. They banned three pro-Communist China newspapers and jailed some of their workers, including Chinese citizens. </p>
<p>Chinese authorities immediately retaliated by targeting the only British journalist in China. Reuters correspondent Anthony Grey spent <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2019/oct/13/from-the-archive-1967-western-journalist-under-arrest-in-china-for-777-days">777 days</a> under house arrest. After the Chinese newspaper workers completed a two-year jail term, Grey was quickly set free as well.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423231/original/file-20210926-125361-1rtlain.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Norm Webster in a dark suit" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423231/original/file-20210926-125361-1rtlain.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423231/original/file-20210926-125361-1rtlain.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423231/original/file-20210926-125361-1rtlain.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423231/original/file-20210926-125361-1rtlain.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423231/original/file-20210926-125361-1rtlain.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423231/original/file-20210926-125361-1rtlain.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423231/original/file-20210926-125361-1rtlain.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Norman Webster, the author’s father, presents the Norman Webster Award for international reporting at the National Newspaper Awards in Toronto in 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Galit Rodan</span></span>
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<p>Chinese premier Zhou Enlai even told <em>The Globe and Mail</em> correspondent in China (<a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-detainee-drama-in-china-1960s-style-a-former-globe-correspondent-looks/">my father, incidentally</a>) that Grey would be welcome to resume his Reuters duties. Zhou openly joked about his ability to jail or free the reporter at will.</p>
<p>Hostage diplomacy, in other words, is nothing new. </p>
<h2>Diplomatic ties established</h2>
<p>Canadian efforts since then have aimed to bring China into the “rules-based international order.” Pierre Trudeau’s government defied American wishes when it <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/archives/entry/1971-canada-and-communist-china-open-diplomatic-relations">established diplomatic relations</a> with the People’s Republic of China in 1971.</p>
<p>Canadian aid had largely been aimed at remaking China, similar to the efforts of <a href="https://united-church.ca/blogs/round-table/exhibit-celebrates-missionary-work-china">Canadian missionaries</a> who tried to change China in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. </p>
<p>Since the 1970s, Canada’s China policy has veered between a missionary impulse to transform the country and a merchant impulse to make money. Both were about “<a href="https://thecic.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/CIC-Issues-in-Canada-China-Relations-2011.pdf">engagement</a>,” trying to have China follow international norms. </p>
<p>But in 1997, Canadian <a href="https://vancouversun.com/opinion/op-ed/david-webster-china-cites-human-rights-in-spat-with-canada">did an about-face</a> when Jean Chrétien’s government stopped supporting a United Nations resolution on human rights in China in favour of “bilateral human rights dialogues” with the Chinese.</p>
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<img alt="Chretien inspects the honour guard in Beijing." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423230/original/file-20210926-124744-1q4ybel.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423230/original/file-20210926-124744-1q4ybel.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423230/original/file-20210926-124744-1q4ybel.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423230/original/file-20210926-124744-1q4ybel.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423230/original/file-20210926-124744-1q4ybel.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423230/original/file-20210926-124744-1q4ybel.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423230/original/file-20210926-124744-1q4ybel.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Prime Minister Jean Chretien inspects the honour guard during welcoming ceremonies at the Great Hall of the People in 2003 in Beijing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(THE CANADIAN PRESS/Paul Chiasson)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As China expert Charles Burton has argued, those closed-door conversations were <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/canadas-fruitless-human-rights-dialogue-with-china">utterly ineffective</a> in promoting human rights. Yet they were highly effective in <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/254249666_Canada_and_Bilateral_Human_Rights_Dialogues">sidelining human rights groups</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/canada-china-trade-deal-is-ottawa-selling-out-our-democratic-values-91970">Canada-China trade deal: Is Ottawa selling out our democratic values?</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Canada declined to <a href="https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/november-2020/canada-must-play-a-role-in-renewing-multilateralism-for-a-changing-world/">push China on human rights</a> partly because it was in competition with other countries for what had become its primary China priority: trade. Canada began making <a href="https://www.joc.com/maritime-news/team-canada-brings-home-gold-successful-trade-mission-asia_19960121.html">huge trade missions to China</a>, happy to snap up scraps tossed to it by a greater power.</p>
<h2>Implied impunity</h2>
<p>Is it any surprise that in 2018, Chinese officials felt they could arrest Canadians with impunity and hold them without reprisals? Decades of Canadian policy had shown them they had little to fear.</p>
<p>China arrested Canadian citizen Huseyin Celil in 2006 and brushed aside Canadian “quiet diplomacy” easily. Canada’s ambassador cared so little for the case that he even <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1694598211978">forgot Celil was Canadian</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-forgotten-canadian-languishing-in-a-chinese-jail-111736">The forgotten Canadian languishing in a Chinese jail</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Canadian diplomats clearly pulled off a clever solution to the two Michaels dilemma, but it was hardly an integrated approach given two-way trade <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-even-as-political-relations-worsen-canada-china-trade-thrives/">has continued apace</a>. </p>
<p>Today, there are already calls in Canada for a <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/meng-huawei-column-don-pittis-1.6188272">return to business “as usual”</a> (literally) with China. </p>
<p>But there are also demands for a much <a href="https://nationalpost.com/opinion/terry-glavin-4">tougher stand against China</a>, and calls for Canada to be allowed into the new <a href="https://theconversation.com/canadas-exclusion-from-the-aukus-security-pact-reveals-a-failing-national-defence-policy-168235">AUKUS</a> security pact between the U.S., the U.K. and Australia aimed at reining in the Chinese in the Indo-Pacific region.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/canadas-exclusion-from-the-aukus-security-pact-reveals-a-failing-national-defence-policy-168235">Canada's exclusion from the AUKUS security pact reveals a failing national defence policy</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>But what’s really needed is a policy informed by history and an understanding of China that’s as astute as Canada’s understanding of its neighbour to the south. </p>
<p>History matters to Chinese policy-makers. Historical analogies often telegraph Chinese intentions. <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Chinese-Revolution-1911-1912">Following the Chinese Revolution</a>, China sought sought a return to respect and to the <a href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/2000-years-economic-history-one-chart/">centre of the global economy</a>. </p>
<p>It’s emerged in a strong position after the “<a href="https://imperialglobalexeter.com/2019/07/11/how-the-century-of-humiliation-influences-chinas-ambitions-today/">century of humiliation</a>” that allowed Western powers to dictate to it. </p>
<h2>What can Canada do?</h2>
<p>Canada could consider restoring the position of an embassy “<a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/tiananmen-square-canada-sinologist-reflects-1.5166976">Sinologist</a>” (China expert) in Beijing. Universities could do more to teach future leaders about Chinese history. The media could report on China in more depth, as it does on U.S. affairs. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423232/original/file-20210926-124735-1hr2i8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed Bin Salman looks towards Justin Trudeau" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423232/original/file-20210926-124735-1hr2i8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423232/original/file-20210926-124735-1hr2i8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423232/original/file-20210926-124735-1hr2i8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423232/original/file-20210926-124735-1hr2i8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423232/original/file-20210926-124735-1hr2i8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423232/original/file-20210926-124735-1hr2i8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423232/original/file-20210926-124735-1hr2i8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed Bin Salman looks towards Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at the G20 Summit in Argentina in 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>At the same time, Canadian policy-makers must stop saying one thing and doing the opposite. Chinese officials study Canada, too. Successive Canadian prime ministers and other leaders have shown the world they’ll holler about human rights to domestic audiences while begging China for more trade. They’ll talk and tweet about feminist foreign policies while shipping weapons systems to Saudi Arabia. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/canadas-checkered-history-of-arms-sales-to-human-rights-violators-91559">Canada’s checkered history of arms sales to human rights violators</a>
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<p>Rather than behaving like a “<a href="https://www.marxists.org/reference/archive/mao/selected-works/volume-5/mswv5_70.htm">paper tiger</a>,” Canada needs to embark on a <a href="https://policyoptions.irpp.org/fr/magazines/septembre-2016-2/put-human-rights-at-the-core-of-the-canada-china-relationship/">consistent rights-based policy</a>, integrated into all aspects of foreign policy and trade as well as domestic policy. After all, both Canada and China have abysmal human rights records on Indigenous people — whether Cree or Uighur, Tibetan or Atikamekw —<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-canada-committed-genocide-against-indigenous-peoples-explained-by-the-lawyer-central-to-the-determination-162582"> and have committed historical, ongoing genocide against them.</a> </p>
<p>It’s time for Canada to consistently match rhetoric to actions. Perhaps celebrations about the return of the two Michaels will lead to new policies that would avoid a repetition.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/168737/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Webster has previously received funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council. He is also an adjunct research professor at Carleton University. </span></em></p>The swiftness of the Chinese action to free the two Michaels signalled an important message to the world from the governing Chinese Communist Party: Don’t mess with us.David Webster, Associate Professor of History / Professeur Agrégé, Département d’Histoire, Bishop's UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1666332021-08-29T10:53:18Z2021-08-29T10:53:18ZRhetoric Check: Is the election really key to Canada’s post-pandemic future?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/418317/original/file-20210829-25-n3t8j5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C144%2C5644%2C3576&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau speaks to media near Brampton, Ont. while on the campaign trail.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Liberals claim that a federal election is needed <a href="https://www.straitstimes.com/world/canada-snap-elections-coming-as-trudeau-seeks-post-pandemic-mandate">to allow Canadians to decide which party has the best plan to lead Canada in a post-pandemic environment</a>. The implicit assumption is that the state of affairs pre-pandemic was a state of normalcy and the disruptions caused by COVID-19 shook up the status quo.</p>
<p>However, as we and our colleagues demonstrate in our book, <a href="https://www.palgrave.com/gp/book/9783030706852"><em>Political Turmoil in a Tumultuous World</em></a>, pre-pandemic Canada was marked by considerable turmoil and disunity. This was reflected in the 2019 election. <a href="https://www.macleans.ca/politics/federal-election-2019-liberals-to-lead-a-minority-government/">The governing Liberals were reduced to a minority</a> while receiving fewer votes than the Conservative Party. The pandemic has amplified these tensions; it did not produce them.</p>
<p>For example, Justin Trudeau has struggled to promote reconciliation with Indigenous Peoples, which has been undermined <a href="https://thenarwhal.ca/trudeau-just-broke-his-promise-canada-s-first-nations/">by his government’s support of pipelines while claiming to acknowledge Indigenous sovereignty and fight climate change</a>. </p>
<p>The Trudeau government’s aspiration to be a feminist one was <a href="https://theconversation.com/trudeaus-response-to-the-snc-lavalin-affair-shows-structural-misogyny-in-action-122012">challenged by issues like the SNC-Lavalin scandal</a> and continuing the sale of <a href="https://theconversation.com/trading-values-to-sell-weapons-the-canada-saudi-relationship-124961">military equipment to Saudi Arabia</a>. <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-premiers-testy-exchange-call-1.5610502">Relations with some provinces were also tense</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/26/us/black-lives-matter-explainer-trnd/index.html">The rise of the Black Lives Matter movement</a>, along with the pandemic, yet again revealed the entrenched <a href="https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/april-2021/why-covid-19-is-an-inequality-virus/">racialized and gendered nature of Canadian socioeconomic inequality</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-racism-works-and-shifts-during-the-covid-19-pandemic-141440">How racism works and shifts during the COVID-19 pandemic</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Continued Stephen Harper policies</h2>
<p>Trudeau claimed that Canada was back on the world stage, and his government employed a rhetoric of liberal internationalism to distinguish it from the Harper Conservatives. However, we have argued that Canada under Trudeau has actually <a href="https://www.peterlang.com/view/9783631838396/html/ch09.xhtml">continued the trajectory of Harper’s foreign policy</a>. It adopted a <a href="https://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/2019/10/CARMENT/60461">hard power outlook</a>, marked by increasing subservience to the United States, to protect its dependent economic relationship, as seen in a renegotiated NAFTA.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-winners-and-losers-in-the-new-nafta-104215">The winners and losers in the new NAFTA</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Since 9/11, security trumps trade for the Americans. This explains <a href="https://www.hilltimes.com/2020/02/24/canadas-china-u-s-conundrum/235047">Canada’s China-U.S. conundrum</a>, highlighted by the American extradition case that led to the imprisonment of <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/7923817/2-michaels-future-trudeau/">two Canadians in China known as “the two Michaels</a>.”</p>
<p>While Trudeau’s celebrity brand has been considerably <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/11926422.2018.1461665">informed by international affairs</a>, the follow-through has been less than overwhelming. Trudeau put Canada forward for a seat on the United Nations Security Council. It was hoped that Canada’s record on issues important for member countries, namely peacekeeping and humanitarian assistance, would help. However, the fact that they suffered under his leadership <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/united-nations-security-council-canada-1.5615488">led to an embarrassing defeat</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Trudeau delivers a speech and is seen on jumbo screens to the left and right of him in a ornate hall." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/418071/original/file-20210826-27-1so8zzb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/418071/original/file-20210826-27-1so8zzb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418071/original/file-20210826-27-1so8zzb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418071/original/file-20210826-27-1so8zzb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418071/original/file-20210826-27-1so8zzb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418071/original/file-20210826-27-1so8zzb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418071/original/file-20210826-27-1so8zzb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Trudeau delivers a speech at the United Nations General Assembly in 2016.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>On the two Michaels, <a href="https://ipolitics.ca/2020/06/25/trudeau-says-meng-michaels-swap-would-jeopardize-safety-of-millions-of-canadians-abroad/">Trudeau has stated that Canada must respect the rule of law</a> when it comes to returning Huawei’s Meng Wanzhou to China. Assurances by <a href="https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/6956527/Letter-to-Prime-Minister.pdf">former ministers and diplomats</a> that the government would be well within its rights to end the extradition process and allow her to go back were ignored. Meanwhile, the Trudeau government was seemingly <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-the-snc-lavalin-revelations-if-true-show-we-are-not-a-country-bound/">less respectful of the rule of law in the SNC-Lavalin scandal</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/snc-lavalin-and-the-need-for-fresh-thinking-around-independence-and-interference-112831">SNC-Lavalin & the need for fresh thinking around independence and interference</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>With the retirement of Germany’s Angela Merkel, many pundits note that Trudeau is <a href="https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/with-merkel-going-canada-s-trudeau-aspires-to-be-dean-of-g-7-1.1616476">positioning himself as the “dean” of the G7</a>. However, this move seems rooted in domestic political ambition more than any real leadership capability. </p>
<p>Now, with the turmoil in Afghanistan and in the heat of a tight election campaign, Trudeau has <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2021/08/17/taliban-are-not-the-legitimate-government-in-afghanistan-trudeau-says.html">undercut his foreign affairs minister</a> by adopting a hard line consistent with the American position. This seems aimed at avoiding criticism from his opponents on the campaign trail over his government’s handling of the evacuation of Canadians and Afghans who assisted Canada.</p>
<h2>Pulling votes from the NDP</h2>
<p>The Liberals have, over two successive elections, recast their brand to pull votes from the Conservatives, and especially the NDP. The Liberal election strategy of drawing attention to differences between the Conservatives and Liberals <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/federal-election-2021/liberals-attacks-on-conservatives-health-care-stance-might-be-working-nanos-1.5560638">on health care is an example</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/canadian-election-2021-do-strategic-voting-campaigns-actually-work-166782">Canadian election 2021: Do strategic voting campaigns actually work?</a>
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<hr>
<p>But it also points to Liberal hypocrisy, given that the pandemic allowed the Liberals to drastically redraw and curtail Canada’s immigration and refugee initiatives, making health <a href="https://theconversation.com/whose-travel-is-essential-during-coronavirus-hockey-players-or-asylum-seekers-140239">not only a security issue but an immigration issue as well</a>.</p>
<p>Polls and pundits reveal increasing fatigue with <a href="https://theconversation.com/rhetoric-check-historically-how-important-is-the-2021-canadian-election-166312">Trudeau’s rhetoric-reality gaps</a>. His government seems long on rhetoric and short on action, providing new opportunities for the opposition. The NDP has captured this sentiment with its <a href="https://www.politico.com/video/2021/08/25/trudeau-all-talk-campaign-on-pharmacare-318336">“All Talk” attack ads</a> against Trudeau. But can the New Democrats or the Conservatives offer something significantly different? Not likely. </p>
<p>Rather, the battle is to control and redefine the centre of the political spectrum. The major parties seek to distinguish themselves by politically recalibrating Canada’s identity and its role in the world, as we argue in the conclusion to our book <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Canada-Nation-Branding-and-Domestic-Politics-1st-Edition/Nimijean-Carment/p/book/9780367143404"><em>Canada, Nation Branding and Domestic Politics</em></a>. This means that despite rhetorical flourishes and zigs and zags with respect to the charged global environment, <a href="https://iaffairscanada.com/2021/2021-trudeau-foreign-policy-report-card/">the broad trajectory of Canadian foreign policy is unlikely to change</a>, regardless of who wins on Sept. 20.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/166633/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Carment receives funding from SSHRC.
He is a Fellow of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Nimijean does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Liberals claim the election is critical to Canada’s post-pandemic future and suggest COVID-19 badly disrupted the status quo. But is that really the case?Richard Nimijean, Instructor III in the School of Indigenous and Canadian Studies, Carleton UniversityDavid Carment, Professor, International Affairs, Carleton UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1419252020-07-14T14:49:47Z2020-07-14T14:49:47ZCanada must navigate U.S.-China tensions by staying true to its values<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/346647/original/file-20200709-22-ayp2ib.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=53%2C112%2C2910%2C1814&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In this June 2019 photo, U.S. President Donald Trump poses for a photo with Chinese President Xi Jinping during a meeting on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Osaka, western Japan</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Susan Walsh)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Canadian government’s inability to navigate the ongoing rivalry between the United States and China has exposed a striking dysfunction in Canada’s foreign policy.</p>
<p>It speaks to a serious vulnerability in a nascent superpower conflict driven by <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/07/the-rise-of-techno-nationalism-and-the-paradox-at-its-core/">techno-nationalism</a> and populist politics. What’s clear is that both Beijing and Washington are willing to manipulate Canada’s rule of law system for their own political ends. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/346356/original/file-20200708-19-1789pqc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/346356/original/file-20200708-19-1789pqc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/346356/original/file-20200708-19-1789pqc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/346356/original/file-20200708-19-1789pqc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/346356/original/file-20200708-19-1789pqc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/346356/original/file-20200708-19-1789pqc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/346356/original/file-20200708-19-1789pqc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Meng Wanzhou is seen leaving her home to attend a court hearing in Vancouver in October 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Trump administration’s request to arrest and extradite Huawei chief financial officer Meng Wenzhou, followed by China’s <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/22/trudeau-canadians-arrest-huawei-333773">retaliatory detention</a> of Canadians <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/who-are-michael-kovrig-and-michael-spavor">Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor</a>, illustrate Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s helplessness and confusion on how to handle such a difficult situation. </p>
<p>In fact, near policy paralysis coupled with a “wait and see” approach appears to have guided the government throughout the crisis. </p>
<h2>Middle power interests</h2>
<p>The tragedy of Kovrig and Spavor’s imprisonment provides guidance on how <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/middle-power">middle power states</a> should navigate rivalries between more powerful nations. On the one hand, the Trump administration’s <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2019/01/04/america-first-is-only-making-the-world-worse-heres-a-better-approach/">America First policy</a> has shown its traditional allies are expendable, while Xi Jinping’s emboldened authoritarianism advocates the detention of foreigners for political leverage. Middle power states, meantime, must protect their values and interests. </p>
<p>But what is Canada’s national interest and what are Canadian values? Finding an agreed-upon set of non-partisan ethics is an emotional and a complex endeavour. Despite the difficulty, times of crisis require leaps of political faith in finding unity to build meaningful policy. </p>
<p>Now is one of those times. </p>
<p>As Canada becomes a playground in a great power rivalry, Canadians must prepare themselves for an era marked by fierce competition between the U.S. and China. A conflict with both global and regional implications, Canada is notably vulnerable given its geographic proximity to the United States and its economic <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/180606/t001a-eng.htm">interdependency</a> with both nations. </p>
<h2>Canada in a no-win situation</h2>
<p>There is a strong lesson for Canada and other middle power states. It’s clear now that Huawei is a <a href="https://www.fintrac-canafe.gc.ca/publications/general/faq-pep-eng">politically exposed</a> firm, and the American request to extradite Meng Wenzhou poses a significant risk for Canadians. As <a href="https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3091333/canadas-duty-lies-freeing-kovrig-and-spavor-china-means-letting">David Zweig</a>, a professor emeritus at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, rightly points out, if Meng is deported, hundreds of thousands of Canadians in China will be in peril. Canada has been forced into a no-win situation. </p>
<p>Michael Kovrig’s wife, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/kovrig-spavor-nadjibulla-interview-1.5621981">Vina Nadjibulla</a>, has noted: “We cannot win a race to the bottom with China; we cannot become aggressive and confrontational because confrontation is not a strategy.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/346650/original/file-20200709-26-1fd482a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/346650/original/file-20200709-26-1fd482a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/346650/original/file-20200709-26-1fd482a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/346650/original/file-20200709-26-1fd482a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/346650/original/file-20200709-26-1fd482a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/346650/original/file-20200709-26-1fd482a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/346650/original/file-20200709-26-1fd482a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo speaks at a news conference in Washington on July 1, 2020, in front of a video monitor showing Spavor, left, a Canadian businessman, and Kovrig, right, a former Canadian diplomat, detained in China since December 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Both Zweig and Nadjibulla, along with a <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/7105280/michael-kovrig-spavor-meng-wanzhou-letter/">powerful collective</a> of Canada’s political elite, are advocating for Meng’s release in exchange for the two Michaels. There is of course <a href="https://www.macdonaldlaurier.ca/canada-must-reject-calls-release-meng-wanzhou-open-letter-prime-minister-trudeau/">fierce objection</a> to a prisoner swap, along with calls for tougher action while diplomatic efforts continue <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2020/06/25/trudeau-refuses-demands-to-release-meng-wanzhou-saying-it-would-put-millions-of-canadians-in-danger.html">behind the scenes</a>. </p>
<p>A prisoner swap would in fact undermine Canada’s credibility and signal to the world and our allies that Ottawa accepts hostage diplomacy. It would in many ways jeopardize Canada’s future relationship with Asia. </p>
<h2>Embracing human security</h2>
<p>While there is speculation that China and the United States are headed towards what’s known as a <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/06/09/the-thucydides-trap/">Thucydides Trap</a> — which holds that war is inevitable when a rising power challenges a dominant state — Canada must prepare itself for the worst and find creative ways of navigate this superpower rivalry. </p>
<p>In doing so, Canadian policy-makers must understand that they’re in no position to change the behaviour of nuclear-armed, authoritarian China. To think otherwise is pure fantasy. </p>
<p>But Canada has options. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/346651/original/file-20200709-18-3solli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/346651/original/file-20200709-18-3solli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/346651/original/file-20200709-18-3solli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/346651/original/file-20200709-18-3solli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/346651/original/file-20200709-18-3solli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/346651/original/file-20200709-18-3solli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/346651/original/file-20200709-18-3solli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Trudeau and Xi Jinping listen to opening remarks at a plenary session at the G20 Summit in Osaka, Japan, in June 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>First, the government should return to its post-Cold War roots and advocate clear principles of <a href="https://www.un.org/humansecurity/what-is-human-security/">human security</a>. Unlike traditional security, human security is a people-to-people, centred approach for understanding how communities can build capacity and resilience. As <a href="https://utorontopress.com/ca/freedom-from-fear-freedom-from-want-4">Kenneth Christie at Royal Roads University and I have written</a>, human security is fundamentally concerned with supporting good governance, human well-being and sustainable development.</p>
<p>Second, Canada should draw on its Cold War experience as a middle power state navigating great power rivalries through multilateral organizations. <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/09/multilateralism-nearly-dead-s-terrible-news/598615/">The Trump administration’s retreat</a> from global institutions is an opportunity for Western allies to implement progressive policies with a clear focus on human security. While Canada has friends, it must do better in reminding them what we stand for. </p>
<p>Third, Canada should aggressively market its human security campaign within China’s vital <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/chinas-massive-belt-and-road-initiative">Belt and Road Initiative</a> countries and the hallways of NATO, advocating human rights and the rule of law. Billboards should be placed on the sides of highways reminding allies how far their economic partners will go to meddle in a nation’s legal sovereignty should they not comply with their wishes. </p>
<p>China does not have to agree with Canada’s liberal democratic principles, nor should we force our values on China. </p>
<p>But the world needs to know how Canada’s sovereign rule of law has been steamrolled by two self-interested superpowers. And Canadians must stay true to our values and help other vulnerable and marginalized victims of great power rivalry.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/141925/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert J. Hanlon does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government seems helpless and confused on how to manage the tensions between the United States and China after being caught in the conflict’s crosshairs.Robert J. Hanlon, Associate Professor of International Relations and Asian Politics, Thompson Rivers UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1259692019-11-03T13:00:28Z2019-11-03T13:00:28ZCanada needs a China strategy, and the western provinces should lead the way<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299860/original/file-20191101-88409-33egih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=27%2C0%2C3117%2C2076&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Canada can benefit enormously from trade with China. That's why Justin Trudeau's government should work to lead a China strategy among western nations. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s now confirmed that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s latest envoy to China has met with two detained Canadians at the heart of an ongoing diplomatic row between Canada and the Chinese. </p>
<p>It was Ambassador Dominic Barton’s <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/dominic-barton-leads-consular-visits-spavor-kovrig-1.5338870">first meeting</a> with Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig since being installed as Canada’s most important diplomat to the region.</p>
<p>The pair’s detention was widely seen as retaliation for Canada’s arrest of <a href="https://www.scmp.com/tech/tech-leaders-and-founders/article/2176654/huaweis-cfo-sabrina-meng-wanzhou-has-been-arrested">Meng Wanzhou, chief financial officer of Huawei</a>, at the behest of the Donald Trump administration last year. </p>
<p>The Liberal government has been extraordinarily careful, cryptic, and even secretive about how it’s handling the impasse. And for good reason. </p>
<p>Having a strong relationship with China is vital to Canada’s economic future. China is Canada’s <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/180606/t001a-eng.htm">second largest</a> trading partner, and socio-economic and cultural ties between the two countries run deep. </p>
<p>But how can the government move forward? There is currently no sense of how Canada is prepared to engage an increasingly <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/ad0bda86-2be9-11e8-9b4b-bc4b9f08f381">assertive China</a>. </p>
<h2>Not an election issue</h2>
<p>During the recent federal election campaign, no political party offered any substantive plan on how Canada should approach the new reality — that is, a hyper-competitive world that the United States is no longer leading.</p>
<p>This controversial view was floated in early October when António Guterres, the United Nations secretary-general, <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2019/10/1049631">gave a blunt message</a> to officials at the World Bank and International Monetary Fund on avoiding “global fracture.”</p>
<p>Referencing the ongoing <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45899310">trade dispute</a> between the United States and China, Guterres called on global financiers to respect “a multi-polar world with strong multilateral institutions.”</p>
<p>Guterres’ comments are striking, not only because they point to global economic fragility, but also because they inferred that the <a href="https://www.brettonwoodsproject.org/2019/01/art-320747/">Bretton Woods institutions</a> are no longer the only game in town. </p>
<p>The remarks also support similar findings I published in <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/app5.186"><em>Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies</em></a>. In my work, I’ve argued “competitive pluralism” and parallel institutions such as the China-led <a href="https://www.aiib.org/en/index.html">Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank</a>, the <a href="http://infobrics.org/">BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa)</a>-led <a href="https://www.ndb.int/">New Development Bank</a> and China’s trillion-dollar <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/chinas-massive-belt-and-road-initiative">Belt-Road Initiative</a> are changing the global development landscape. </p>
<p>But competition brings opportunity, and trading nations like Canada will benefit. </p>
<h2>Navigating a new environment</h2>
<p>Put another way, Canada must find a way to navigate the new environment being shaped by an increasingly protectionist United States and an emboldened illiberal China. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299856/original/file-20191101-88428-1kuzvpo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299856/original/file-20191101-88428-1kuzvpo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299856/original/file-20191101-88428-1kuzvpo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299856/original/file-20191101-88428-1kuzvpo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299856/original/file-20191101-88428-1kuzvpo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299856/original/file-20191101-88428-1kuzvpo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299856/original/file-20191101-88428-1kuzvpo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Meng Wanzhou, who is out on bail and remains under partial house arrest, arrives at B.C. Supreme Court to attend a hearing in Vancouver in October 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It’s clear the Meng case probably won’t be the last time a U.S. administration exerts its influence over Canada to make a statement to China’s government. </p>
<p>What’s more, the past 15 years has seen Canada’s <a href="https://business.financialpost.com/news/fp-street/canadas-lagging-productivity-could-get-a-jumpstart-from-financial-services-reform-c-d-howe">productivity and competition fall</a> while <a href="https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/recession-odds-in-canada-s-crude-condo-and-cannabis-economy-1.1332984">talk of a potential recession</a> is fuelling economic uncertainty, especially in the western provinces. </p>
<p>Surely, there is a business case to diversify Canada’s economy across the Pacific. The region is expected to account for <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/REO/APAC/Issues/2018/04/16/areo0509">two-thirds of global growth</a> over the coming decades. </p>
<p>Of course, national interest matters, and successive Canadian governments looking to bolster investor confidence from China have struggled to navigate this space. For example, while Stephen Harper’s former Conservative government approved <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nexen-cnooc/cnooc-closes-15-1-billion-acquisition-of-canadas-nexen-idUSBRE91O1A420130225">the takeover of Nexen</a> by the state-owned China National Offshore Oil Company, the Liberals rejected the China Communications Construction Company’s <a href="https://nationalpost.com/pmn/news-pmn/canadas-disturbing-lack-of-vision-on-dealing-with-a-rising-china">attempt to acquire Aecon</a>. </p>
<h2>Canada as a pawn</h2>
<p>Make no mistake, Canada is in a vulnerable situation given the socio-economic rifts between the Donald Trump administration and Xi Jinping’s government. Populists and proponents of economic nationalism in both the United States and China will readily use Canada as a pawn in a trade war. </p>
<p>Trudeau must do more to recognize this threat. </p>
<p>Now is the time. Canada has a strategic advantage, with China’s growth at a <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/yuwahedrickwong/2019/10/21/chinas-growth-slows-to-30-year-low-what-does-it-mean-for-the-global-economy/#6ab242926ca7">30-year low</a> coupled with an insatiable need for resources tied to regime legitimacy. That is, the Communist Party of China led by President Xi must find ways to improve the economy in order to safeguard its political support at home. China’s economic pressure is an opportunity for the Liberal government.</p>
<p>Not only does Canada offer an entry point to the North American market, the country’s resources, ingenuity and brand image for doing business <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/vickyvalet/2019/10/15/the-worlds-most-reputable-countries-2019/#4677a86b4cb8">are among the most reputable</a> in the world, according to <a href="https://www.reputationinstitute.com/">The Reputation Institute.</a></p>
<p>As pundits, politicians and analysts continue to float notions on <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/election-2019/this-isnt-just-anger-seven-prominent-voices-assess-the-post-election-mood-out-west">western alienation</a> in Canada, the Trudeau government would do well to assemble a strong, non-partisan China team led by the West to build a uniquely Canadian Asia strategy, with China at its core. </p>
<p>The task force would need to consult wide-ranging stakeholders, including Indigenous communities, the private sector, non-profits, defence, intelligence, academics and especially young people. </p>
<p>The entire federation of provinces and territories must be engaged, but Canada’s western provinces must lead where regional experience and knowledge of Asia is strongest. </p>
<p>The West has not only a geographical advantage, it’s home to the <a href="https://www.asiapacific.ca/">Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada</a>, unparalleled research institutes such as the <a href="https://sppga.ubc.ca/about/core-partners/#IAR">Institute of Asian Research</a>, <a href="https://www.ualberta.ca/china-institute">the China Institute</a> and the <a href="https://www.uvic.ca/research/centres/capi/">Centre for Asia Pacific Initiatives</a>, as well as Canada’s <a href="http://www.navy-marine.forces.gc.ca/en/about/structure-marpac-home.page">Pacific fleet</a> and the nation’s <a href="https://www.portvancouver.com/">largest port</a>. </p>
<p>The future is Asia, and the file is too important for a minority government to handle alone. Now is the time for the parties to co-operate. Now is the time for a national strategy. </p>
<p>[ <em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=youresmart">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/125969/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert J. Hanlon does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Justin Trudeau’s government should assemble a strong, non-partisan China team led by the West to build a uniquely Canadian Asia strategy, with China at its core.Robert J. Hanlon, Associate Professor of International Relations and Asian Politics, Thompson Rivers UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1117362019-02-17T18:49:03Z2019-02-17T18:49:03ZThe forgotten Canadian languishing in a Chinese jail<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/258638/original/file-20190213-90473-m6jxz2.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Huseyin Celil is seen here with one of his youngest children in this 2006 photo taken shortly before his arrest.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Creative Commons</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The arbitrary arrests in China of Canadians <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/07/michael-kovrig-michael-spavor-canadian-men-detained-china-charges">Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig</a> without charge have appalled Canadians and led to widespread demands that the government of Canada exert all pressure possible to achieve their release from Chinese custody.</p>
<p>That they are being held in a <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2009/11/11/china-secret-black-jails-hide-severe-rights-abuses">Chinese “black jail”</a> at an undisclosed location and subject to brutal interrogation (reportedly including mistreatment <a href="http://www.spiegel.de/international/prison-camps-in-china-three-eyewitnesses-discuss-torture-and-forced-labor-a-1231301.html">that includes torture</a>) is deeply troubling. </p>
<p>The reason for the detainment of Spavor and Kovrig is simply to pressure the government of Canada to release a Chinese national, Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou, currently under house arrest in Vancouver pending an extradition order. It’s an outrage against Canada. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-arrest-of-huawei-executive-has-put-canada-in-tight-spot-109539">The arrest of Huawei executive has put Canada in tight spot</a>
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<p>It’s also a gross violation of the universal principles of human rights and United Nations-defined norms of international behaviour that China pledged to uphold as part and parcel of the rules-based international order.</p>
<p>Canadians are rightly demanding that Canada makes the release of Kovrig and Spavor the No. 1 priority for our engagement with the Chinese regime. But another case involving an even more egregious violation of international law by China against Canada languishes largely forgotten.</p>
<p><a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/4874245/canadian-detained-china-huseyin-celil/">Huseyin Celil</a> is from Burlington, Ont. He is an Uighur imam born in China who dared advocate for the democratic and religious rights for the Muslim minority group.</p>
<p>Celil fled China in the mid-1990s after being imprisoned for using a megaphone to broadcast calls to prayer. He eventually made his way to Canada as a refugee in 2001. Celil became a Canadian citizen in 2005. </p>
<p>In 2006, he travelled to Uzbekistan on his Canadian passport to visit his wife’s family. He was arrested there at the request of the Chinese government and transported to China without any due process of law. Celil has been in prison in China ever since.</p>
<h2>No evidence of wrongdoing</h2>
<p>China maintains that Celil is a separatist and a terrorist, without citing any evidence. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.amnesty.ca/our-work/individuals-at-risk/huseyin-celil">Amnesty International Canada has taken up his case</a> for all the years since. Amnesty Secretary-General Alex Neve <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/chinese-official-defends-jailing-of-uyghur-canadian-huseyin-celil/article36787808/">maintains that Celil should never have been imprisoned because</a> “there has never been any substantiation of the allegations against him — that he is some sort of terrorist mastermind. He did not have a fair trial.”</p>
<p>What is particular disturbing about the Celil matter is that the Chinese government has consistently refused to acknowledge Celil’s Canadian citizenship. Canada has therefore had no access to Celil since his forced return to China. We therefore have no information on his mental and physical condition after so many years of harsh incarceration.</p>
<p>Celil’s wife, <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/immigration/2016/02/03/wife-of-burlington-man-jailed-in-china-urges-canada-to-fight-for-his-release.html">Kamila Telendibaeva</a>, was informed by the Chinese government three years ago that Celil’s life sentence had been reduced to 20 more years in prison because he had made a confession and undergone what’s known as re-education training. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/258633/original/file-20190213-90473-ihu4ff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/258633/original/file-20190213-90473-ihu4ff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/258633/original/file-20190213-90473-ihu4ff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/258633/original/file-20190213-90473-ihu4ff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/258633/original/file-20190213-90473-ihu4ff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/258633/original/file-20190213-90473-ihu4ff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/258633/original/file-20190213-90473-ihu4ff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Kamila Talendibaeva, the wife of Huseyin Celil, is seen at a news conference to demand his release in 2007.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Fred Chartrand</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>So he will serve 32 years altogether, meaning that if he is indeed released in 2037, he will have entered prison at age 36 and will be free at age 68. In the meantime, his four boys in Burlington will have grown up without a father. </p>
<p>The youngest was born after his father was taken away. Kamila suffers Huseyin’s absence terribly as a single parent, her challenge all the greater as their eldest child is severely disabled.</p>
<h2>Muslims held in camps</h2>
<p>Currently a <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2018/09/china-up-to-one-million-detained/">million Uighurs</a> and other ethnic believers in Islam are being held in Chinese internment camps <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/china-is-brainwashing-more-than-a-million-uighurs-the-world-must-demand-justice/2019/02/12/2aa871d6-2e35-11e9-813a-0ab2f17e305b_story.html?utm_term=.2c6530c25df0">designed to force them to renounce their religious beliefs</a>. </p>
<p>China employs a <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/china-uighurs-muslim-xinjiang-weddings-minority-communist-party-a8661006.html">“pair up and become family” program</a>. It places Chinese “relatives” in the homes of Uighur families in order to spy on them and report on those who continue to profess their religious beliefs in the face of the Chinese regime’s coercive measures to effectively ban most religious practices. </p>
<p>Canada accused China at the UN last November of violating Uighurs’ human rights, noting “credible reports of the mass detention, repression and surveillance of Uighurs and <a href="https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2015/02/151682/imams-forced-dance-street-religiously-repressed-xianjang/">other Muslims in Xinjiang.”</a></p>
<p>But to what extent the government of Canada is prepared to act in response to the increasing horrific suppression of Islam by the Chinese authorities remains to be seen.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, as with the arbitrary incarcerations of Kovrig and Spavor, any attempt by Canada to secure the release of Celil through diplomatic channels will go nowhere.</p>
<p>In the asymmetrical power relationship between Canada and China, China has little incentive to accede to Canadian demands appealing to the niceties of international law and human decency. Canada needs to assert our interests with more muscle to regain Chinese respect.</p>
<p>Cracking down on Chinese spies and agents of influence in Canada, and better enforcing our laws against money laundering by wealthy Chinese connected to the senior levels of the Chinese government, would be good places to start.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/111736/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Charles Burton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Another case involving an even more egregious violation of international law by China against Canada languishes largely forgotten.
Huseyin Celil, a Canadian citizen, has been in jail since 2006.Charles Burton, Associate Professor of Political Science, Brock UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1104332019-01-25T06:24:48Z2019-01-25T06:24:48ZAustralian-Chinese author’s detention raises important questions about China’s motivations<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255527/original/file-20190125-108355-xpcj7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Is the arrest of Yang Hengjun part of a series of retaliatory measures by the Chinese government?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">PEN America</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/detention-of-an-australian-in-china-is-canberra-s-worst-nightmare-20190123-p50t3f.html">arrest of an Australian-Chinese citizen</a> in China for unspecified reasons is the last thing Australia needs at a sensitive moment in the reset of a relationship that has chilled over the past two years.</p>
<p>But whether it likes it or not, Canberra is being drawn into a broader controversy over China’s detention of foreign nationals on grounds that are opaque and at the mercy of an unpredictable Chinese justice system.</p>
<p>The arrest last weekend of author and diplomat Yang Hengjun raises the question of whether he has become part of a pattern of retaliatory measures by a Chinese government that finds itself under stress from within and without.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/huawei-executives-arrest-will-further-test-an-already-shaky-us-china-relationship-108478">Huawei executive's arrest will further test an already shaky US-China relationship</a>
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<p>At this stage it has not been revealed why Yang, a critic of China’s Communist Party, has been detained. On a previous visit to China in 2011 he was arrested and released without charge. He described that episode as a “misunderstanding”.</p>
<p>What should concern Australian officials is that Yang will find himself lumped with other foreign nationals from countries that may have displeased China and therefore become hostages to a wider diplomatic game.</p>
<p>Beijing’s initially muted response to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-23/huawei-banned-from-providing-5g-mobile-technology-australia/10155438">Australia’s decision</a> to exclude, on security grounds, the Chinese technology behemoth Huawei from building its 5G network may have disguised more intense displeasure.</p>
<p>In the case of the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-15/canadians-detained-in-china-face-tough-interrogation/10621930">arrest late last year of two Canadian nationals</a> on accusations of “endangering national security”, it is hard to place any other interpretation on their detention than that they are pawns, even hostages, in a broader conflict.</p>
<p>Diplomat Michael Kovrig and businessman Michael Spavor were arrested following the <a href="https://theconversation.com/huawei-executives-arrest-will-further-test-an-already-shaky-us-china-relationship-108478">detention in Vancouver</a> of the chief financial officer and daughter of the founder of Huawei, pending her extradition to the United States.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255543/original/file-20190125-108364-mjxlg8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255543/original/file-20190125-108364-mjxlg8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=811&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255543/original/file-20190125-108364-mjxlg8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=811&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255543/original/file-20190125-108364-mjxlg8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=811&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255543/original/file-20190125-108364-mjxlg8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1019&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255543/original/file-20190125-108364-mjxlg8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1019&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255543/original/file-20190125-108364-mjxlg8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1019&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/EPA/ Maxim Shipenkov</span></span>
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<p>The <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-huawei-tech/us-will-seek-extradition-of-huawei-cfo-from-canada-idUSKCN1PG2HL">US Justice Department </a> is bringing charges against Meng Wanzhou for violating sanctions against Iran.</p>
<p>Her case is highly sensitive and enmeshed in a complex US-China relationship scarred by an ongoing trade dispute. In all of this, Canada, in its response to a US extradition request, finds itself the target of Chinese reprisals.</p>
<p>In the case of the unfortunate Canadians ensnared in a diplomatic argument that originated in Washington, a Chinese saying could be applied:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Kill the chicken to frighten the monkey.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In this case, Canada is the “chicken” and the United States is the “monkey”.</p>
<p>Whatever China’s tactics are in all of this, the arrest of the Canadian nationals on national security grounds represents a very serious development. The ripples from it are spreading as more and more countries become alarmed at China’s resort to what could be described as hostage-taking to protect – or advance – its interests.</p>
<p>One lesson might be that if a country, or a company for that matter, finds itself in a dispute with China, then advice to its nationals or employees should be to steer clear of the People’s Republic.</p>
<p>China’s behaviour in this latest stage would hardly seem to correspond with respect for a rules-based international order.</p>
<p>What can be read into these worrying developments is that under pressure, the Chinese regime is adopting a more combative approach to dealing with its foreign policy challenges as its size and reach brings it into conflict with the United States and its allies.</p>
<p>A slowing Chinese economy is adding to pressures on a regime whose tenure depends on maintaining employment and countering unrest.</p>
<p>Above all else, the issue of “stability” preoccupies China’s leaders, who are familiar with the chaos that has swept the country in its long history.</p>
<p>In Beijing this week, President Xi Jinping expressed his concerns about a difficult period ahead for China as it grapples with challenges at home and abroad.</p>
<p>Speaking to officials he warned of a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/22/xi-warns-china-to-maintain-political-security-against-black-swans-of-economic-volatility">“black swan” event</a>, in which China might be obliged to deal with unexpected developments that threw it off its course. This included what he called a “grey rhinoceros event” - a reference to known risks that are ignored until too late. He said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>In the face of a turbulent international situation, a complex and sensitive environment, and the arduous task of reform… We must be highly vigilant against “black swan” and “grey rhinoceros” incidents.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>These sentiments are hardly surprising given the challenges China faces in transforming its economy from an investment-led to a demand-driven model in a slowing economic environment. But they do suggest a higher-than-usual level of anxiety in Beijing in this latest period.</p>
<p>In the years since China began opening up to the world in the late 1970s, it is hard to identify a period that is more challenging for a hard-pressed Chinese leadership. One possible exception is a period in the early 1990s when the country struggled with inflationary pressures and risks of a hard economic landing from a retrenchment in government spending.</p>
<p>The difference between now and then is that China’s economy then was a fraction of the size it is today. Ripples from a Chinese slowdown were hardly felt beyond China’s shores.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-and-china-push-the-reset-button-on-an-important-relationship-106428">Australia and China push the 'reset' button on an important relationship</a>
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<p>Today, the effects of a <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/the-global-economic-slowdown-is-accelerating-and-australia-is-vulnerable-20190122-p50suq.html">slowing Chinese economy</a> will have an impact across the globe. This is not least in Australia, one-third of whose exports in goods and services are bound up in a trading relationship.</p>
<p>Australian official cautiousness over the detention of an Australian-Chinese national is explained by a desire not to elevate a dispute with Beijing beyond what is necessary.</p>
<p>Foreign Minister Marise Payne has joined her Canadian and other colleagues in expressing “concern” over the detention of the two Canadians in apparent retaliation for the detention of the Huawei official.</p>
<p>If it transpires that an Australian-Chinese citizen has been similarly detained, Payne will have to go beyond simply expressing concern in solidarity with the Canadians.</p>
<p>In defence of their nationals, including a third individual whose sentence of 15 years for drug smuggling was converted to a death penalty, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-freeland-china-diplomatic-push-1.4987378">Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland have been outspoken</a>.</p>
<p>What should now be clear is that expectations of China becoming a benign power are mistaken. These latest episodes are proving to be a lesson in dealing with a country that is no longer <a href="https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/china/24-character.htm">“hiding its capacities” and “biding its time”</a>, as former paramount leader Deng Xiaoping advised.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/110433/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tony Walker does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The unexplained detention of author and diplomat Yang Hengjun has raised more questions about the motives of a Chinese government under stress from within and without.Tony Walker, Adjunct Professor, School of Communications, La Trobe UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1095392019-01-24T22:18:44Z2019-01-24T22:18:44ZThe arrest of Huawei executive has put Canada in tight spot<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/254632/original/file-20190120-100273-1o32uz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Huawei chief financial officer Meng Wanzhou, right, is escorted by a member of her private security detail while arriving at a parole office in Vancouver in December 2018. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Canada has been in the spotlight for acting on an American <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/huawei-meng-extradition-questions-fraud-1.4943162">extradition</a> request, arresting Meng Wanzhou, the chief financial officer of telecommunications giant Huawei and daughter of its founder. </p>
<p>For those in Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s corner, the debate so far has focused on the detention of Canadians in China, with Beijing being <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2018/12/17/china-is-holding-two-canadians-hostages-its-not-even-denying-it/?utm_term=.7e160143f61e">painted as thuggish</a> for its retaliatory tactics. </p>
<p>The pro-China view, by contrast, has <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/10/world/asia/china-ambassador-canada-white-supremacy.html">decried the persecution</a> of Huawei by the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/04/us/politics/government-access-encrypted-data.html">Five Eyes nations</a> in what could be called a new digital Cold War. </p>
<p>This tit-for-tat spat is a blemish on China-Canada relations and shows Canada playing a weak hand badly. It’s caught between two great powers and navigating these rough waters alone. </p>
<p>Making things worse is Ottawa’s apparent cultural illiteracy when it comes to demanding respect from China. While respecting judicial independence and legal processes should remain a priority, we point to the political and diplomatic implications of this ongoing saga.</p>
<h2>Retaliation</h2>
<p>The perceived <a href="http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1130954.shtml">public humiliation</a> of one of China’s most important women executives, accused of exploiting offshore legal entities to do business with Iran, has already led to retaliation against Canada and this is likely to grow. </p>
<p>Ottawa could have recognized the political risks head on and handled this delicate situation more diplomatically instead of having Meng “lose face” in her own country and risking a Chinese nationalist backlash against Canada. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-china-huawei-tech-court/us-court-issued-huawei-cfo-arrest-warrant-in-august-idUSL1N1YC1ZD">The warrant</a> for Meng’s arrest had been issued for some time, covering alleged misrepresentations to HSBC Bank regarding business with Iran between 2009 and 2014, but Canada seemed unprepared politically. </p>
<p>One thing is clear: Meng posed no pressing <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/11/tech/huawei-meng-wanzhou-bail-decision/index.html">national security</a> risk to Canada, or any urgent risk to the United States, or she would not have been let out on bail.</p>
<p>Ironically, the arrest occurred <a href="https://news.abs-cbn.com/business/12/10/18/trump-did-not-know-of-huawei-arrest-during-xi-dinner-white-house-official">during a dinner in Argentina between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump</a>, who has said, if necessary, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/former-canadian-diplomat-reported-missing-in-china-following-arrest-of-huawei-executive/2018/12/11/350c6bb8-fcdb-11e8-a17e-162b712e8fc2_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.de01daf5c491">he would intervene</a> on Meng Wanzhou’s behalf. Canada lost sight of its national interest by expecting Trump’s public backing — a poor bet — and angering China. </p>
<p>So what exactly has Ottawa gained? </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/254633/original/file-20190120-100264-heh7pq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/254633/original/file-20190120-100264-heh7pq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/254633/original/file-20190120-100264-heh7pq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/254633/original/file-20190120-100264-heh7pq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/254633/original/file-20190120-100264-heh7pq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/254633/original/file-20190120-100264-heh7pq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/254633/original/file-20190120-100264-heh7pq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In this Dec. 1, 2018 photo, President Donald Trump meets with China’s President Xi Jinping during their bilateral meeting at the G20 Summit, in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Meng’s arrest took place on the same day.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais, File)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Chinese may not look at Canada the same way again — as an independent, safe haven considered a pillar of multiculturalism and quiet diplomacy. It may also do permanent damage to its relationship with China, Canada’s <a href="http://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/august-2018/canadas-growing-reliance-on-international-students">third-largest trading partner and worth over $1 billion</a> in revenues from international students. </p>
<h2>Most immigrants to Canada are Asian</h2>
<p>More than <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/171025/dq171025b-eng.pdf">60 per cent of Canada’s immigrants</a> are from Asia, and over two-thirds are immigrants <a href="https://www.asiapacific.ca/statistics/immigration/arrivals/immigration-category-economic-immigrants">from the economic category</a> that add immediate value to the economy. Canada should not ignore the boon in immigration and investment that Asia represents to its economy. </p>
<p>A country like Canada cannot credibly pitch itself as an Asia-Pacific power without acquiring a more sophisticated cultural understanding of China. </p>
<p>Canada could start immediately by transforming the ranks of its civil servants, foreign service and diplomatic leadership from its current Eurocentric bias.</p>
<p>Ottawa must recruit top Asian talent who speak Mandarin, Hindi, Arabic and Urdu and can help advise its leaders on how to handle complex cross-cultural conflicts without abandoning its core values. </p>
<h2>Encourage students to spend time in Asia</h2>
<p>Canadian universities should also create programs to help their students spend more time studying and living in Asia rather than in countries that do not broaden their cultural or linguistic horizons. The pace of change has been too slow and traditional networks still prevail. </p>
<p>We are now indeed entering a digital Cold War and should not trivialize the costs or challenges ahead. </p>
<p>Few who have done business in China doubt that China’s telecom giant Huawei <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2018/12/20/18150275/chinese-hackers-stealing-data-nasa-ibm-charged">engages in widespread espionage and hacking</a> on behalf of Beijing. It is widely known, for example, that American technology executives in California are often advised to toss their devices into the waste basket when they return from China. </p>
<p>In the absence of trust, greater cultural understanding is a powerful diplomatic tool and one that Canada needs to wield expertly. Hopefully the Meng case will be a catalyst to sharpening that tool rather than claiming the moral high ground and hoping for a favourable resolution to this entirely preventable crisis.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Alexander Mirza co-authored this piece</em>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/109539/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stéfanie von Hlatky receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, the Department of National Defence, the Government of Ontario and NATO. She is affiliated with the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, the Conference of Defence Associations Institute, Women in International Security-Canada, and the Global Security Innovation Council.
</span></em></p>In the absence of trust, greater cultural understanding is a powerful diplomatic tool and one that Canada needs to wield expertly when dealing with China.Stéfanie von Hlatky, Associate Professor of Political Studies and Director of the Centre for International and Defence Policy, Queen's University, OntarioLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1099722019-01-16T16:25:26Z2019-01-16T16:25:26ZHuawei founder’s protests mean nothing – independent Chinese companies simply don’t exist<p>The media-shy founder of Chinese tech giant Huawei has given a <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-46875747">rare interview</a> to international news organisations in an attempt to assuage the growing global security concerns surrounding his company. While strenuously denying that Huawei has been spying on behalf of the Chinese government, much of the coverage naturally centred on Ren Zhengfei’s statement that he misses his daughter very much. </p>
<p>Meng Wanzhou, the company’s chief financial officer, cannot return to China as she is <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-wrong-with-huawei-and-why-are-countries-banning-the-chinese-telecommunications-firm-109036">being prevented</a> from leaving Canada pending a possible extradition to the US to answer charges relating to the sanctions on Iran. Yet beyond the theatrics of her case, the much bigger story surrounds the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/12/countries-banning-huawei-181206130850129.html">growing global opposition</a> to Huawei, which had looked set to dominate its sector – not least after <a href="https://www.economist.com/leaders/2012/08/04/whos-afraid-of-huawei">establishing</a> itself as the world’s largest manufacturer of telecommunications equipment and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/aug/01/huawei-beats-apple-smartphone-manufacturer-samsung-iphone">overtaking Apple</a> last August to become the second-biggest smartphone vendor in the world after Korea-based Samsung. </p>
<p>Ren’s assurances around security will do little to satisfy concerns. Not only would it be illegal for Huawei to deny a request for assistance from Chinese intelligence-gathering agencies, <a href="https://www.lawfareblog.com/beijings-new-national-intelligence-law-defense-offense">according to</a> article 7 of 2017’s National Intelligence Law, the authorities <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/07/14/chinas-rule-by-law-takes-an-ugly-turn-rights-lawyers-crackdown-xi-jinping/">regularly</a> circumnavigate legal constraints <a href="https://www.lawfareblog.com/chinas-human-rights-abuses-against-uighurs-xinjiang">with impunity</a> in any case. </p>
<p>As a large organisation based in technology hub Shenzhen on the Chinese mainland, Huawei’s existence depends on the continued approval of the Chinese Communist Party. The company is enmeshed within, and beholden to, the <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/interviews/rich-are-widely-hated-in-china-john-osburg-professor-rochester-university/articleshow/19886214.cms">informal networks</a> that interlace the Chinese one-party state. At the centre of such networks are always the highest echelons of the party itself. </p>
<h2>How China operates</h2>
<p>Those who view China only through a single lens – that of economics or tech development, for example – often forget the reality of the country. The Communist Party effectively controls the judiciary, the police force, the education system, the armed forces, journalistic institutions, state-owned enterprises and academic institutions – to name only a few. </p>
<p>Nominally private businesses within that landscape understand that, despite much talk of <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2017-03-28/chinas-path-toward-rule-law">movement toward</a> the rule of law, one unwritten law remains essential: to survive you must maintain favour with the party and its representatives at any cost. Or as my former Chinese colleague in Beijing used to say of business relations with the party, “compromise or perish”. </p>
<p>Huawei, a company deserving of greater global recognition and success, simply must therefore be denied access to international projects where security is a feature. This much is evident to mainland Huawei employees I have talked to. In many cases they are talented, dedicated and creative individuals who want little to do with politics. Privately, they expect their company’s international ambitions to wilt in the long shadow of the party. </p>
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<p>Since long before the recent <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/12/huawei-fires-an-employee-in-poland-following-charges-of-espionage.html">dramatic arrest</a> of a Huawei sales executive in Poland on charges of espionage, the company has been a serious concern to Western security agencies. Last February, the heads of six US intelligence agencies told a Senate committee that they didn’t trust Huawei and in August the government banned state agencies from using its equipment. This has been happening, of course, in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-chinese-products-went-from-cheap-and-cheerful-to-weapons-in-us-trade-war-94461">context of</a> a <a href="https://theconversation.com/g20-will-be-about-donald-trump-and-his-tariffs-but-china-will-dominate-the-new-world-order-107912">growing trade war</a> between China and the US. </p>
<p>Around the same time, the UK’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/keeping-tabs-on-huawei-raises-awkward-questions-for-everyone-21622">longstanding</a> government-controlled centre for testing Huawei equipment <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/huawei-uk-security-risk-telecoms-network-gchq-warning-a8456006.html">reported shortcomings</a> in the company’s engineering processes that raised security dangers – Huawei <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/13/reuters-america-huawei-2-bln-security-pledge-followed-walkout-by-british-official--sources.html">subsequently agreed</a> to spend £2 billion fixing the problem. Australia <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-45281495">said</a> it would not allow the company to participate in its 5G telecoms network, and later <a href="https://www.zdnet.com/article/huawei-denies-foreign-network-hack-reports/">accused</a> Huawei staff of being “used by the Chinese government as a conduit for intelligence gathering”. </p>
<p><a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/28/tech/huawei-spark-nz/index.html">New Zealand</a> and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-china-huawei/japan-government-to-halt-buying-huawei-zte-equipment-sources-idUSKBN1O600X">Japan</a> have since followed suit on 5G, as have <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/dec/05/bt-removing-huawei-equipment-from-parts-of-4g-network">the UK’s BT</a> and <a href="https://www.lightreading.com/mobile/5g/orange-rules-out-huawei-for-5g-in-france/d/d-id/748274">France’s Orange</a>. <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-huawei-europe-germany/deutsche-telekom-reviews-huawei-ties-orange-says-no-on-5g-idUSKBN1OD0G7">Deutsche Telekom</a> of Germany and now <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/poland-considers-ban-on-huawei-products-after-spying-arrest-11607097">also Poland</a> are reviewing their own involvement. In many cases, other Chinese companies such as <a href="https://www.zte.com.cn/global/">ZTE</a> have been banned as well. To stress, Huawei has denied all spying accusations on each occasion. </p>
<h2>Huawei and the West</h2>
<p>So how did Huawei achieve so much international success in sensitive sectors? There are several interrelated reasons. The first is that the level of control ultimately exerted by the Communist Party over Chinese mainland institutions has <a href="http://data.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/committeeevidence.svc/evidencedocument/international-relations-committee/foreign-policy-in-changed-world-conditions/oral/86826.html">tended to be</a> pitifully under-represented by Western “experts” quoted enthusiastically by news agencies that should know better. </p>
<p>Huawei also offers high-quality, competitively priced <a href="https://consumer.huawei.com/en/">products</a> and has shrewdly positioned itself in target markets with the help of local elites and institutions. In the UK, for example, it <a href="https://www.huawei.com/en/press-events/news/2015/03/hw_415000">recruited</a> to the board of Huawei UK the extraordinarily well-connected ex-BP peer Lord Browne of Madingley and former senior civil servant Sir Andrew Cahn while <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9715164/Chinese-firm-Huawei-spends-tens-of-thousands-lobbying-British-politicians.html">also installing</a> Conservative and Liberal Democrat peers as advisers. </p>
<p>Former UK government chief information officer John Suffolk <a href="https://www.computerweekly.com/news/2240105220/Former-government-CIO-John-Suffolk-joins-Huawei-as-head-of-cybersecurity">was hired</a> as head of cybersecurity, while the company’s lobbying efforts were sufficiently extensive to be the subject of a Channel 4 Dispatches documentary in 2012. Huawei also <a href="https://www.chathamhouse.org/membership-subscriptions/corporate-membership/corporate-list">sponsors</a> the world-renowed Chatham House think tank, and has <a href="https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm/cmallparty/180426/register-180426.pdf">provided funding</a> to the influential All Party Parliamentary Groups for “Internet, Communications and Technology” and “Smart Cities” at the heart of the British government.</p>
<p>One imagines that the discomfort over the turnaround in Huawei’s fortunes will extend beyond Beijing to all the prestigious local intermediaries attached to the company. In the UK, as with many of her allies, the pushback has been <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46465438">spearheaded</a> by intelligence agencies that have <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/at-gathering-of-spy-chiefs-u-s-allies-agreed-to-contain-huawei-11544825652">looked on aghast</a> as Huawei has been allowed far closer to power then they would like. </p>
<p>Expect this to get worse before it gets better for Huawei. More countries will almost certainly announce they are denying the company a role in the 5G roll-out. The company will probably never reach its full international potential. Perhaps Ren Zhengfei pointed the way forward when he <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-46875747">suggested that</a> Huawei might focus on countries that were “more welcoming” – mainly within the Chinese sphere of influence, in other words. </p>
<p>For Huawei and other Chinese companies like it, only a separation of powers and the imposition of the rule of law at home would allow it to escape the gravity of party control. Even among Chinese intellectuals, such significant party reach into the affairs of its private companies is problematic. The usually sympathetic commentator Wang Xiangwei recently <a href="https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/2178086/meng-wanzhou-arrest-why-does-china-focus-canada-when-us-blame">denounced</a> this close involvement as “folly and counterproductive, to say the least”. </p>
<p>In the years of growing Chinese commercial engagement with the outside world, the party has chosen its own ascendancy over wider Chinese prosperity. As is becoming increasingly apparent, this comes at a high price indeed.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/109972/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Martin Thorley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Ren Zhengfei has given a rare interview to the Western media, denouncing accusations that his company has been involved in spying.Martin Thorley, PhD candidate in Contemporary Chinese Studies and International Relations, University of NottinghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1084782018-12-10T23:16:00Z2018-12-10T23:16:00ZHuawei executive’s arrest will further test an already shaky US-China relationship<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/249804/original/file-20181210-76989-1klvs9y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou's extradition to the US is being sought, and carries highly charged politics with it.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">wikiglobals.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>When US Vice President Mike Pence got to his feet at the conservative Hudson Institute in Washington on October 4, it was clear that US-China relations were entering a new, certainly fractious, possibly destructive phase.</p>
<p>In those <a href="https://www.hudson.org/events/1610-vice-president-mike-pence-s-remarks-on-the-administration-s-policy-towards-china102018">remarks</a>, Pence did not hold back. They bear repeating in light of the latest blow-up in an increasingly testy relationship, this time over the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-09/china-calls-on-canada-to-free-huawei-cfo-or-face-consequences/10597884">arrest in Canada</a> of the daughter of one of China’s most prominent business figures. </p>
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<p>The Chinese Communist Party has used an arsenal of policies inconsistent with free and fair trade, including tariffs, quotas, currency manipulation, forced technology transfer, intellectual theft and industrial subsidies that are handed out like candy to foreign investment. These policies have built Beijing’s manufacturing base, at the expense of its competitors – especially the United States of America.</p>
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<p><a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-huawei-tech-documents/huawei-cfo-seeks-bail-cites-health-fears-behind-bars-court-documents-idUSKBN1O80SO">Meng Wanzhou</a>, a senior executive in telecommunications manufacturing giant Huawei and daughter of its founder, is alleged by the United States to have violated sanctions on selling technology to Iran.</p>
<p>Her extradition to the US to stand trial is being sought. This is an explosive issue, not least because – rightly or wrongly – it will be perceived in Beijing as a component of a trade war driven by a hostile US administration.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/g20-summit-bring-a-truce-in-us-china-trade-relations-but-its-likely-to-be-temporary-108017">G20 summit bring a truce in US-China trade relations – but it's likely to be temporary</a>
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<p>What will also be playing out in China is the issue of “face”. An inability by China’s leadership to bring about Meng’s release will involve “loss of face” in a country where nationalist sentiments remain potent, overlaid by a lingering sense of grievance over foreign interference.</p>
<p>China could not have drawn any conclusion from the Pence Hudson Institute speech other than that Washington viewed Chinese business practices as war by another means. </p>
<p>In Pence’s remarks, there was little concession to a grand bargain between the US and China sought by successive administrations. Rather, the US vice president delivered a warning to Beijing that his country was intent on a more confrontational approach to perceived Chinese mercantilism – and lawbreaking.</p>
<p>The gloves were off. Inevitably, Meng’s arrest will be viewed in Beijing through this prism, whether circumstances are material or not.</p>
<p>What is relevant in Huawei’s case is <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/bt-to-strip-chinas-huawei-from-core-networks-limit-5g-access-20181206-p50ki7.html">an effective veto</a> on it building 5G networks in Anglosphere countries around the world.</p>
<p>Four members of the Five Eyes – the US, United Kingdom, Australia and New Zealand – have banned Huawei from participating in advanced 5G networks. Canada is <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/national-security-comes-first-on-huawei-5g-review-infrastructure-minister-1.4211896">reviewing</a> its options.</p>
<p>This coordinated resistance by intelligence-sharing allies reflects misgivings about risks to communications networks in their countries from a company with <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/dec/08/the-giant-that-no-one-trusts-why-huaweis-history-haunts-it">murky links to the Chinese military</a>.</p>
<p>While there is no explicit connection between Meng’s arrest and pushback against Huawei’s 5G business, China will inevitably link the two episodes as examples of Western efforts to stifle competition from a Chinese behemoth.</p>
<p>This would be an understandable reaction, but on the face of it these are separate issues.</p>
<p>What is the case is the Pence Hudson Institute speech signals a potential rupture in the nearly half century of relative amity – leaving aside outrage over the <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2013/09/15/world/asia/tiananmen-square-fast-facts/index.html">Tiananmen Square bloodletting</a> of 1989 – dating from the <a href="https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v17/d203">Shanghai Communique</a> of 1972.</p>
<p>This was signed by visiting President Richard Nixon and Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai. After years of contentiousness on Taiwan and other issues, the US and China agreed to work towards normalising relations.</p>
<p>What is different now is that, seemingly in the blink of an eye, China has grown its economy to the point where it is the world’s biggest on a purchasing power parity basis. It’s set to become the largest overall within the next ten years.</p>
<p>Companies like Huawei symbolise China’s extraordinary economic success and the threat this poses to established businesses in the West.</p>
<p>Back in 1972, no-one could have anticipated China would move as far and fast as it has – to the point where it is challenging the US and its allies on many fronts.</p>
<p>This returns us to the issue of Meng Wenzhou, whose arrest is threatening to derail <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/01/world/trump-xi-g20-merkel.html">trade negotiations advanced by Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping</a> at a dinner engagement at the recent Buenos Aires G20 summit.</p>
<p>China’s official response had been relatively measured in what appears to be an attempt to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/09/technology/canada-china-huawei-meng-wanzhou.html">compartmentalise</a> the Meng arrest issue and not allow it to bring important trade talks unstuck.</p>
<p>Trump and Xi agreed on a 90-day window ending on March 1 to enable the trade negotiations – aimed at forestalling increases of US tariffs on Chinese imports – to proceed. However, Meng’s arrest casts doubt on this process.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-risks-of-a-new-cold-war-between-the-us-and-china-are-real-heres-why-103772">The risks of a new Cold War between the US and China are real: here's why</a>
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<p>In the past 48 hours, China has stiffened its official rhetoric. This includes the <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/vile-china-ramps-up-pressure-ahead-of-huawei-bail-verdict-20181210-p50l7b.html">summoning of the US ambassador in Beijing</a> for a dressing down. Chinese displeasure was summed up in a Foreign Ministry statement:</p>
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<p>The actions of the US seriously violated the lawful and legitimate rights of the Chinese citizen, and by their nature were extremely nasty. China will respond further depending on US actions.</p>
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<p>What this portends is anybody’s guess, but once they have swung into action, US legal processes are relentless. In the meantime, Canada finds itself in a Chinese firing line as its own judiciary deals with a politically charged extradition process.</p>
<p>In the wider scheme of things, it is hard to envision a more unhelpful development at a critical moment in US-China relations. This is not a complication that is doing anyone any favours, least of all world markets, or the friends and trading partners of those at its centre.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/108478/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tony Walker does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Meng Wanzhou’s arrest in Canada has caused further tensions in the strained relationship between China and the US.Tony Walker, Adjunct Professor, School of Communications, La Trobe UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.