tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/morrison-government-58916/articlesMorrison government – The Conversation2023-11-02T19:14:00Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2168912023-11-02T19:14:00Z2023-11-02T19:14:00ZIs nuclear the answer to Australia’s climate crisis?<p>In Australia’s race to net zero emissions, nuclear power has surged back into the news. Opposition leader Peter Dutton <a href="https://ipa.org.au/research/climate-change-and-energy/peter-dutton-address-to-ipa-members-sydney-7-july-2023">argues</a> nuclear is “the only feasible and proven technology” for cutting emissions. Energy Minister Chris Bowen insists Mr Dutton is promoting “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-18/energy-minister-says-nuclear-power-too-expensive/102868218">the most expensive form of energy</a>”.</p>
<p>Is nuclear a pragmatic and wise choice blocked by ideologues? Or is Mr Bowen right that promoting nuclear power is about as sensible as <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/radionational-breakfast/-unicorn-and-a-fantasy-energy-minister-slams-nuclear-energy/102866944">chasing “unicorns”</a>?</p>
<p>For someone who has not kept up with developments in nuclear energy, its prospects may seem to hinge on safety. Yet by any hard-nosed accounting, the risks from modern nuclear plants are orders of magnitude lower than those of fossil fuels.</p>
<p>Deep failures in design and operational incompetence caused the Chernobyl disaster. Nobody died at Three Mile Island or from Fukushima. Meanwhile, a Harvard-led study found <a href="https://seas.harvard.edu/news/2021/02/deaths-fossil-fuel-emissions-higher-previously-thought">more than one in six deaths globally</a> – around 9 million a year – are attributable to polluted air from fossil combustion.</p>
<p>Two more mundane factors help to explain why nuclear power has halved as a share of global electricity production since the 1990s. They are time and money.</p>
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<h2>The might of Wright’s law</h2>
<p>There are four arguments against investment in nuclear power: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olkiluoto_Nuclear_Power_Plant">Olkiluoto 3</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flamanville_Nuclear_Power_Plant#Unit_3">Flamanville 3</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hinkley_Point_C_nuclear_power_station">Hinkley Point C</a>, and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vogtle_Electric_Generating_Plant">Vogtle</a>. These are the four major latest-generation plants completed or near completion in Finland, the United States, the United Kingdom and France respectively. </p>
<p>Cost overruns at these recent plants average over 300%, with more increases to come. The cost of Vogtle, for example, soared from US$14 billion to $34 billion (A$22-53 billion), Flamanville from €3.3 billion to €19 billion (A$5-31 billion), and <a href="https://illuminem.com/illuminemvoices/nuclear-economics-lessons-from-lazard-to-hinkley-point-c">Hinkley Point C</a> from £16 billion to as much as £70 billion (A$30-132 billion), including subsidies. Completion of Vogtle <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/vogtles-troubles-bring-us-nuclear-challenge-into-focus-2023-08-24/">has been delayed</a> by seven years, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/after-18-years-europes-largest-nuclear-reactor-start-regular-output-sunday-2023-04-15/">Olkiluoto</a> by 14 years, and <a href="https://www.nucnet.org/news/decree-sets-startup-deadline-of-2024-4-3-2020">Flamanville</a> by at least 12 years.</p>
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<p>A fifth case is <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virgil_C._Summer_Nuclear_Generating_Station">Virgil C</a>, also in the US, for which US$9 billion (A$14 billion) was spent before cost overruns led the project to be abandoned. All three firms building these five plants – Westinghouse, EDF, and AREVA – went bankrupt or were nationalised. Consumers, companies and taxpayers <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/07/18/hinkley-points-cost-consumers-surges-50bn/">will bear the costs</a> for decades.</p>
<p>By contrast, average cost overruns for wind and solar are <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/we.2069">around zero</a>, the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2214629614000942">lowest</a> of all energy infrastructure.</p>
<p><a href="https://ark-invest.com/wrights-law/">Wright’s law</a> states the more a technology is produced, the more its costs decline. Wind and especially solar power and <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/battery-price-decline">lithium-ion batteries</a> have all experienced <a href="https://www.irena.org/News/pressreleases/2023/Aug/Renewables-Competitiveness-Accelerates-Despite-Cost-Inflation">astonishing cost declines</a> over the last two decades.</p>
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<p>For nuclear power, though, Wright’s law has been inverted. The more capacity installed, the more costs have increased. Why? This <a href="https://www.cell.com/joule/pdf/S2542-4351(20)30458-X.pdf">2020 MIT study</a> found that safety improvements accounted for around 30% of nuclear cost increases, but the lion’s share was due to persistent flaws in management, design, and supply chains.</p>
<p>In Australia, such costs and delays would ensure that we miss our emissions reduction targets. They would also mean spiralling electricity costs, as the grid waited for generation capacity that did not come. For fossil fuel firms and their political friends, this is the real attraction of nuclear – another decade or two of sales at inflated prices.</p>
<h2>Comparing the cost of nuclear and renewables</h2>
<p>Nevertheless, nuclear advocates tell us we have no choice: wind and solar power are intermittent power sources, and the cost of making them reliable is too high.</p>
<p>But let’s compare the cost of reliably delivering a megawatt hour of electricity to the grid from nuclear versus wind and solar. According to both <a href="https://publications.csiro.au/rpr/download?pid=csiro:EP2022-5511&dsid=DS1">the CSIRO</a> and respected energy market analyst <a href="https://www.lazard.com/media/typdgxmm/lazards-lcoeplus-april-2023.pdf">Lazard Ltd</a>, nuclear power has a cost of A$220 to $350 per megawatt hour produced.</p>
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<p>Without subsidies or state finance, the four plants cited above generally hit or exceed the high end of this range. By contrast, Australia is already building wind and solar plants at under <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/act-starts-to-bank-its-cheapest-wind-power-yet-in-next-stage-to-kick-out-fossil-fuels/">$45</a> and <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/nsw-gets-stunning-low-price-for-wind-and-solar-in-biggest-renewables-auction/">$35 per megawatt hour</a> respectively. That’s a tenth of the cost of nuclear.</p>
<p>The CSIRO has <a href="https://www.csiro.au/-/media/EF/Files/GenCost/GenCost2022-23Final_27-06-2023.pdf">modelled the cost</a> of renewable energy that is firmed – meaning made reliable, mainly via batteries and other storage technologies. It found the necessary transmission lines and storage would add only $25 to $34 per megawatt hour.</p>
<p>In short, a reliable megawatt hour from renewables costs around a fifth of one from a nuclear plant. We could build a renewables grid large enough to meet demand twice over, and still pay less than half the cost of nuclear.</p>
<h2>The future of nuclear: small modular reactors?</h2>
<p>Proponents of nuclear power pin their hopes on <a href="https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/what-are-small-modular-reactors-smrs#:%7E:text=Small%20modular%20reactors%20(SMRs)%20are,of%20traditional%20nuclear%20power%20reactors.">small modular reactors</a> (SMRs), which replace huge gigawatt-scale units with small units that offer the possibility of being produced at scale. This might allow nuclear to finally harness Wright’s law.</p>
<p>Yet commercial SMRs are years from deployment. The US firm <a href="https://www.nuscalepower.com/en">NuScale</a>, scheduled to build two plants in Idaho by 2030, has not yet broken ground, and on-paper costs have already <a href="https://ieefa.org/resources/eye-popping-new-cost-estimates-released-nuscale-small-modular-reactor">ballooned</a> to around A$189 per megawatt hour.</p>
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<p>And SMRs are decades away from broad deployment. If early examples work well, in the 2030s there will be a round of early SMRs in the US and European countries that have existing nuclear skills and supply chains. If that goes well, we may see a serious rollout from the 2040s onwards.</p>
<p>In these same decades, solar, wind, and storage will still be descending the Wright’s law cost curve. Last year the Morrison government was spruiking the goal of getting solar below <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/ultra-low-cost-solar-power-a-priority-for-australia-20220108-p59msj.html">$15 per megawatt hour by 2030</a>. SMRs must achieve improbable cost reductions to compete.</p>
<p>Finally, SMRs may be necessary and competitive in countries with poor renewable energy resources. But Australia has the richest combined solar and wind resources in the world.</p>
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<h2>Should we lift the ban?</h2>
<p>Given these realities, should Australia lift its ban on nuclear power? A repeal would have no practical effect on what happens in electricity markets, but it might have political effects. </p>
<p>A future leader might seek short-term advantage by offering enormous subsidies for nuclear plants. The true costs would arrive years after such a leader had left office. That would be tragic for Australia. With our unmatched solar and wind resources, we have the chance to deliver among the cheapest electricity in the developed world.</p>
<p>Mr Dutton may be right that the ban on nuclear is unnecessary. But in terms of getting to net zero as quickly and cheaply as possible, Mr Bowen has the relevant argument. To echo one assessment from the UK, nuclear for Australia would be “<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013-10-30/u-k-risks-looking-economically-insane-with-edf-nuclear-deal?">economically insane</a>”.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216891/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Reuben Finighan is a research fellow at the Superpower Institute.</span></em></p>When Australia’s government and opposition argue over how to get to net zero emissions, nuclear power is the flashpoint. The argument against nuclear is stronger, but not for the obvious reason.Reuben Finighan, PhD candidate at the LSE and Research Fellow at the Superpower Institute, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2167272023-11-02T19:13:43Z2023-11-02T19:13:43ZThe ‘drums of war’ are receding, but Anthony Albanese still faces many uncertainties on his trip to China<p>Fifty years ago this week, Prime Minister Gough Whitlam visited the People’s Republic of China, establishing a relationship that has become mutually beneficial in terms of economic growth and development to both China and Australia. </p>
<p>It was in many ways a bold step into the unknown. While the two economies are clearly complementary, their political systems are very different, as today’s prime minister, Anthony Albanese, repeatedly points out. </p>
<p>Prior to Labor’s election victory in 2022, the Coalition government struggled to manage the necessary ambiguity in Australia-China relations, determining that politics (and in some cases ideology) had to be more important than economics. </p>
<p>Albanese’s visit to Beijing, starting this weekend, should be welcomed as it signals an alternative approach to the outright hostility that characterised much of Australia-China relations after 2017.</p>
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<h2>From ‘drums of war’ to ‘stable relations’</h2>
<p>In an Anzac Day 2021 message to his staff, later published to some fanfare in The Australian, the then-Home Affairs secretary, Mike Pezzullo, <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/the-drums-of-war-are-growing-louder/news-story/bf29fb3cf94b89f84eaeb22fd32d9724">warned</a> the “drums of war” were beating. It was a clear reference to Australia’s tensions with China. </p>
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<p>Peter Dutton, the minister of defence, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/25/australian-defence-minister-says-conflict-over-taiwan-involving-china-should-not-be-discounted#:%7E:text=2%20years%20old-,Australian%20defence%20minister%20says%20conflict%20over,China%20%27should%20not%20be%20discounted%27&text=The%20Australian%20defence%20minister%2C%20Peter,%22good%20relations%22%20with%20Beijing.">agreed</a> that war with China over Taiwan “should not be discounted”. In an <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-vows-to-call-out-beijing-and-declares-everyday-australians-are-with-the-government-20210501-p57o14.html">interview days later</a>, he said the Australian Defence Force was “prepared for action”:</p>
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<p>[…] protection for our borders and our waters to the north and west remains a clear priority.</p>
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<p>Echoing the spirit of Winston Churchill’s <a href="https://www.oxfordreference.com/display/10.1093/acref/9780191826719.001.0001/q-oro-ed4-00002969">1954 comments</a> at the White House that “jaw-jaw is always better than war-war”, the Albanese government has rejected this perspective of the Morrison government.</p>
<p>The new government’s <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-to-head-to-china-within-months-after-accepting-xi-jinping-s-invitation-20230907-p5e2n1.html">formula</a> is to “work towards productive and stable relations with China based on mutual benefit and respect”. Albanese and Foreign Minister Penny Wong have both emphasised that Australia will cooperate where it can and differ where it must.</p>
<p>Given the government’s commitment to the US alliance, this difference with its predecessor may seem little more than rhetorical. But rhetoric in international political relations can carry substantial weight. This is especially true during periods of geopolitical instability, such as the world is experiencing now.</p>
<h2>Room for cooperation</h2>
<p>This wider context puts necessary limits around what the government might hope to achieve – and what Australia should expect – from Albanese’s trip to Beijing. </p>
<p>The emergence of an explicit “strategic competition” between the US and China, and the role of Australia in that competition through AUKUS, means the days of a more open and easy-going relationship are unlikely to return soon. </p>
<p>But the Australia-US alliance is only one part of the Australia-China relationship, even if it has dominated headlines of late. </p>
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<p>Australia and China also have differing priorities and ambitions in the Pacific. And both countries continue to have very complementary economies. These links require a more nuanced management of the relationship, and could certainly be the subject of discussion during Albanese’s visit.</p>
<p>Australian governments have long regarded the Pacific islands as holding great geopolitical and economic importance. Until recently, however, this has not been matched by attention to the concerns and development priorities of these nations, namely the consequences of climate change and the need for basic infrastructure. </p>
<p>This gap has been filled by China through its Belt and Road Initiative. When the Chinese government <a href="https://www.afr.com/world/asia/china-s-wang-yi-seeks-support-for-pacific-security-deal-20220530-p5apjk">attempted to reach</a> security agreements with some of the Pacific islands, the Australian government reacted with a series of official visits, additional economic assistance and the promise of initiatives to develop economic and cultural relationships.</p>
<p>There is certainly room for cooperation between China and Australia in this area. Despite its continued use of fossil fuels, China has developed a sizeable renewable energy industry, far greater than Australia as a proportion of energy production. </p>
<p>The two countries could also cooperate in the provision of development assistance to the Pacific.</p>
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<h2>Why the trade relationship matters to both sides</h2>
<p>The bilateral trade relationship will definitely be on the table for discussion in Beijing. China is Australia’s largest trading partner, <a href="https://wits.worldbank.org/CountrySnapshot/en/AUS">accounting for</a> 34% of all exports and 28% of imports. </p>
<p>More importantly, Australia is one of few countries that has a major <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/28/australias-exports-to-china-are-jumping-despite-their-trade-fight.html">trade surplus</a> with China. In 2022-23, Australia’s surplus on the trade of goods with China was around <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/international-trade/international-trade-goods/aug-2023#">A$87 billion</a>.</p>
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<p>Despite the rhetoric of the Morrison government portraying China as a threat to Australia, the disappearance of this economic relationship would pose an equally significant challenge. This has only been reinforced by the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/oct/30/australia-eu-free-trade-deal-collapses-g7-fta-european-union">collapse of talks</a> to establish a free-trade agreement between Australia and the European Union in recent days.</p>
<p>For the moment, trade is one aspect of the relationship that is equally important for the Chinese leadership, despite the imbalance in the size of the two economies. While the import of Australian resources is clearly significant – and there is some evidence the tariffs China imposed proved harmful to its own economy – the reason for China’s attention on trade lies elsewhere. </p>
<p>The Chinese government is currently seeking to join the <a href="https://www.dfat.gov.au/trade/agreements/in-force/cptpp/comprehensive-and-progressive-agreement-for-trans-pacific-partnership">Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement</a>. This is the successor free trade association to the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which then-US President Donald Trump withdrew from in 2017. To that end, China needs the support of member states, including Australia.</p>
<p>In a series of meetings between Australian and Chinese officials this year, which led to the first <a href="https://apnews.com/article/australia-china-resume-dialogue-relationship-6f0f3e763eadfcb734c1b55aabff2ea5">high-level dialogue</a> between the countries since 2020, there’s been hope that a bilateral basis for renewed stability is now emerging. </p>
<p>Without these indications, Albanese would presumably not be visiting Beijing now. It may not be as dramatic a move as Whitlam’s visit in 1973, but inevitably there is an element of a step into the unknown.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216727/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David S G Goodman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There are limits around what Australia might hope to achieve and what it should expect in Beijing, but there is room for cooperation.David S G Goodman, Director, China Studies Centre, Professor of Chinese Politics, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2147092023-10-04T19:05:43Z2023-10-04T19:05:43ZMade in America: how Biden’s climate package is fuelling the global drive to net zero<p>Just over a year since US President Joe Biden signed the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflation_Reduction_Act">Inflation Reduction Act</a> (IRA) into law, it’s becoming clear this strangely named piece of legislation could have a powerful impact in spurring the global transition to net zero emissions by 2050.</p>
<p>But the vast amount of investment unleashed by the IRA has raised tensions with some of the United States’ closest allies, and creates risks, as well as opportunities, for Australia’s transition to clean energy sources.</p>
<p>In his 2020 presidential campaign, Biden promised <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/dec/08/biden-signs-order-government-net-zero-emissions-2050">to commit the US to net zero</a> by 2050, and to spend US$2 trillion to get there – the biggest investment in manufacturing since World War II. Biden is delivering on those promises.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/11/06/fact-sheet-the-bipartisan-infrastructure-deal/">The 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act</a> included about $100 billion for electric vehicles and for speeding the electricity grid’s transition to clean energy sources.</p>
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<h2>The IRA changes the landscape</h2>
<p>Passage of the IRA, in August 2022, ensured a swathe of green technologies would benefit from tax credits, loans, customer rebates and other incentives.</p>
<p>The original announcement estimated that uncapped subsidies over ten years would be US$369 billion, but <a href="https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/the-us-is-poised-for-an-energy-revolution.html">Goldman Sachs Research now estimates that total subsidies</a> could reach US$1.2 trillion and attract US$3 trillion investment by industry. That’s trillion, not billion.</p>
<p>Already, <a href="https://climatepower.us/wp-content/uploads/sites/23/2023/07/Clean-Energy-Boom-Anniversary-Report-1.pdf">272 new or expanded clean energy manufacturing projects</a> in the US, including 91 in batteries, 65 in electric vehicles and 84 in wind and solar power, have been announced. These projects are estimated to <a href="https://climatepower.us/wp-content/uploads/sites/23/2023/07/Clean-Energy-Boom-Anniversary-Report-1.pdf">create 170,000 jobs</a>, predominantly in Republican-led states.</p>
<p>The IRA is all carrot, no stick. It contains no carbon taxes or emissions trading schemes. Instead, tax credits for capital expenditure and production costs encourage companies to invest in solar, wind, hydrogen, batteries, electric vehicles and other zero emissions technologies.</p>
<p>This approach is shifting the debate on the best way to reach net zero emissions. To free-market economists who ask why government should invest in private sector industries, the answer is that the green energy transition is not natural. Renewable energy would never have advanced without Germany subsidising solar and Denmark subsidising wind.</p>
<p>Subsidies and mandates are also crucial in explaining why, last year, Chinese vehicle manufacturers produced 64% of the global total of 10.5 million electric vehicle sales, and deployed about half of the global capacity additions in solar and wind power.</p>
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<h2>Industrial policy to protect the climate</h2>
<p>The IRA is America’s response. More than climate policy, it is industrial policy, replete with made-in-America provisions. Companies are more likely to obtain tax credits if they employ unionised labour, train apprentices and set up shop in states that are transitioning out of fossil fuels.</p>
<p>Consumers will earn a $7,500 federal tax credit on an electric car only if that car is assembled and at least half the battery made in America. Similarly, wind and solar projects will earn tax credits only if half of their manufactured components are made in America.</p>
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<p>These policies were made with China in mind. Both main US parties agree the US must reduce its dependence on sourcing minerals and products from China, and move towards a new form of “<a href="https://ecfr.eu/article/a-united-front-how-the-us-and-the-eu-can-move-beyond-trade-tensions-to-counter-china/">strategic economic nationalism</a>”.</p>
<p>Yet while America’s strongest allies are also alarmed by the challenge from China, they are disturbed by aspects of the IRA. They fear that to benefit from its subsidies, their own clean energy companies might pack up shop and establish plants in the US.</p>
<p>The European Union, for example, has praised the IRA’s overall approach, but <a href="https://energywatch.com/EnergyNews/Policy___Trading/article14567471.ece">fiercely criticised</a> its made-in-America provisions. French President Emmanuel Macron called the Act “<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/macron-visits-nasa-talks-space-cooperation-us-visit-begins-2022-11-30/">super aggressive</a>” toward European companies. European leaders say the IRA violates trade rules by discriminating against imported products, and could “<a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/automakers-foreign-governments-seek-changes-us-ev-tax-rules-2022-11-08/">trigger a harmful global subsidy race to the bottom</a> on key technologies and inputs for the green transition.”</p>
<p>Yet even as it criticises the US, the EU <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-united-states-inflation-reduction-act-subsidies-investment-threat-data/">has responded to the IRA</a> by relaxing its rules and allowing individual states to provide direct support to clean energy companies to stop them taking their projects to the US.</p>
<p><a href="https://financialpost.com/commodities/mining/how-inflation-reduction-act-changed-canada">Canada</a>, worried about investment flowing south to benefit from the IRA even though its free trade agreement with the US should give its companies access to the subsidies, has also announced tax credits and programs to boost clean energy production. <a href="https://japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/politics-government/20230513-109457/">Japan</a> and <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-15/samsung-drives-400-billion-south-korea-plan-to-propel-key-tech?sref=wpjMCURG">South Korea</a> have announced similar programs.</p>
<h2>Why the IRA challenges Australia</h2>
<p>In Australia, before the IRA was legislated, the Morrison government <a href="https://www.exportfinance.gov.au/newsroom/transforming-australia-s-critical-minerals-sector/">provided a A$1.25 billion loan</a> to Iluka Resources to fund construction of an integrated rare-earths refinery in Western Australia. The refinery will produce separated rare earth oxide products that are used in permanent magnets in electric vehicles, clean energy generation and defence.</p>
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<p>But Australia risks being left behind in the race to build clean energy industries. The US could so heavily subsidise <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/energy/hydrogen">green hydrogen production</a> that our own planned industry – seen as a foundation of our aspiration to be <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/news/all/articles/2023/july/australia-energy-future#:%7E:text=Australia%20has%20vast%20amounts%20of,change%20from%20challenge%20to%20opportunity.">a clean energy superpower</a> – will be uncompetitive, leading our aspiring manufacturers to set up shop in the US.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/green-steel-is-hailed-as-the-next-big-thing-in-australian-industry-heres-what-the-hype-is-all-about-160282">'Green steel' is hailed as the next big thing in Australian industry. Here's what the hype is all about</a>
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<p>The IRA, however, brings Australia many potential benefits. The US wants to source the raw and refined materials it needs from countries, such as Australia, with which it has a free trade agreement. To respond to this interest, Australian industry, transport and mining must have access to low-emissions electricity.</p>
<p>The US will be an essential market for our <a href="https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2023/04/05/the-energy-transition-will-need-more-rare-earth-elements-can-we-secure-them-sustainably/">rare earths</a> such as neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium, used to make the powerful permanent magnets in wind turbines and electric car motors. Australia can also build new industrial processes and supply chains so that we earn more from decarbonised metallic iron, aluminium and nitrogenous fertiliser. We can ship our renewable energy in the form of hydrogen and ammonia.</p>
<p>In this race, Australia’s friendship with the US and volatile relationship with China could be decisive. The IRA does not spell out the concept of <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/onshoring-and-friend-shoring-us-ev-supply-chains-what-are-boundaries">friend-shoring</a> but nevertheless it seeks “to onshore and friend-shore the electric vehicle supply chain, to capture the benefits of a new supply chain and reduce entanglement with China,” according to the US Centre for Strategic and International Studies.</p>
<p>The IRA denies electric vehicle tax credits when any component or critical mineral in the vehicle is sourced from China or any “foreign entity of concern.” </p>
<p>A clean energy trade war is just one of the potential obstacles that could prevent the full benefits of the IRA being realised. Many communities in the US and Australia are resisting the installation of new transmission lines, wind farms and other clean energy infrastructure, and these objections are often on environmental grounds – the so-called <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4443474">Greens’ Dilemma</a>. And a win for Donald Trump in next year’s presidential election could reverse American climate policy.</p>
<p>Yet on balance, the IRA can only be good for getting to net zero. It brings the US in from the climate wilderness to be a leader in emissions reduction, helping to drive new technologies and lower costs that will benefit not only America but the world.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214709/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alan Finkel is chair of the Hysata Advisory Council and an investor in the company. He is a member of the Rio Tinto Innovation Advisory Council. </span></em></p>The Biden Administration’s signature climate legislation is unleashing a wave of clean energy investment, along with some opportunities and risks for countries like Australia.Alan Finkel, Chair of ARC Centre of Excellence for Quantum Biotechnology, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2078402023-06-15T11:41:43Z2023-06-15T11:41:43ZGrattan on Friday: Liberals come a cropper when they try to dig afresh into the Brittany Higgins story<p>Two women ended up in tears in the Senate this week, as the Higgins imbroglio exploded yet again and in the process claimed a scalp. </p>
<p>But the scalp wasn’t that of Finance Minister Katy Gallagher, who was targeted by the Liberals. </p>
<p>Instead it was one of the Liberals’ own, David Van, <a href="https://theconversation.com/peter-dutton-expels-senator-david-van-from-liberal-party-room-after-more-allegations-against-him-207826">who was banished from the Liberal party room by Peter Dutton</a>, after allegations from crossbencher Lidia Thorpe that the Victorian senator had sexually assaulted her, a claim he strongly denied.</p>
<p>The Liberals knew their pursuit of Gallagher for allegedly misleading parliament over her knowledge of the Brittany Higgins matter would carry some political risk. But they could never have imagined they’d be damaged in such a dramatic fashion, ceding one of their senators to the crossbench.</p>
<p>Federal politics, the tone of which has been better than in the last parliamentary term, once again descended into a toxic mire. </p>
<p>Van’s spectacular fall began with Thorpe (formerly with the Greens) on Wednesday shouting interjections when he was speaking about Labor’s attacks on Liberal women over the Higgins issue, and parliamentary standards. <a href="https://theconversation.com/lidia-thorpe-alleges-she-was-sexually-assaulted-by-liberal-senator-david-van-a-claim-he-brands-disgusting-207748">She alleged he’d “harassed” and “sexually assaulted” her</a>, which he immediately rejected.</p>
<p>In a broader set of allegations on Thursday, in which she didn’t specifically name Van, a tearful Thorpe said: “I experienced sexual comments, and was inappropriately propositioned by powerful men. One man followed me and cornered me in a stairwell.</p>
<p>"There are different understandings of what amounts to sexual assault. What I experienced was being followed, aggressively propositioned and inappropriately touched. I was afraid to walk out of the office door. I would open the door slightly and check the coast was clear before stepping out,” she said. </p>
<p>“To me it was sexual assault, and the [Morrison] government at the time recognised it as such,” she said, because it immediately moved the person’s office.</p>
<p>Between late Wednesday and Thursday morning, other allegations about Van came to Dutton, with former Liberal senator Amanda Stoker confirming to him that Van had groped her. </p>
<p>Stoker later publicly recounted how “in November 2020 Senator Van inappropriately touched me at an informal social gathering in a parliamentary office. He did so by squeezing my bottom twice. By its nature and by its repetition, it was not accidental. That action was not appropriate. It was unprofessional and uninvited.” Van subsequently apologised.</p>
<p>Even if it hadn’t inadvertently blown itself up, the Coalition was always going to struggle with its attack on Gallagher. The minister, with caucus – in Anthony Albanese’s words – “1000%” behind her, could simply stare down her interrogators, although that meant enduring a good deal of heat. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/word-from-the-hill-coalition-attacks-on-katy-gallagher-voice-losing-traction-future-fund-holdout-207739">Word from The Hill: Coalition attacks on Katy Gallagher, Voice losing traction, future fund holdout</a>
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<p>Gallagher’s 2021 claim, at a Senate estimates hearing, that she had no prior knowledge of Higgins’ allegation she was raped, was wrong, and therefore misled parliament.</p>
<p>Indeed, Gallagher had admitted privately to Liberal then-minister Linda Reynolds on that same night that she had some prior knowledge. This week she refused to be drawn on details of her interactions around receiving this information, leaving the opposition empty-handed. She did say – a crucial point – <a href="https://theconversation.com/katy-gallagher-says-she-didnt-alert-albanese-or-wong-to-the-pending-brittany-higgins-interview-207627">that she hadn’t passed on the information</a>, obtained from Higgins and her partner David Sharaz, to Albanese or Labor’s Senate leader, Penny Wong. </p>
<p>Labor has been able to deploy effectively the argument that by revisiting the Higgins issue the Liberals will discourage women coming forward with allegations they have been assaulted. Albanese said: “My concern here is that we know that about 13% of sexual assault victims actually take action, go forward to police. And I’m worried that the focus that is going on at the moment will have a triggering effect and will deter people from coming forward.”</p>
<p>The debate also turned to the ethics of the disclosure of previously private communications, most notably the leaked text messages between Sharaz and Higgins. </p>
<p>This disclosure – involving court material – was widely condemned, and the Liberals struggled to win their argument that however the material became public, they were perfectly justified in dealing with the content. The opposition maintained it was pursuing accountability, but that was blurred by the counter argument about Higgins’ right of privacy.</p>
<p>The latest round of the Higgins issue has also been entangled in what we can call the media wars. The disclosure of the texts and other material has been spearheaded by The Australian, which has given massive coverage to changing the narrative of the Higgins story, in a direction that is less favourable to her. Some other sections of the media were not keen to follow up The Australian’s stories. </p>
<p>While Gallagher’s survival was always guaranteed, the attacks have taken their toll. By Thursday she was teary, lamenting that the work done on having women treated better and encouraging them to come forward when something happened to them had been set back.</p>
<p>She also conceded: “I am sorry Senator Reynolds is clearly upset about what happened to her. I am sorry about that. And I told her that.</p>
<p>"But I am also very sorry for Brittany Higgins, I’m sorry documents about her personal life have been leaked, I’m sorry a confidential draft claim for compensation [for Higgins] found its way onto the front pages of a national newspaper.”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-brittany-higgins-story-continues-its-damaging-trail-with-no-end-in-sight-207500">View from The Hill: Brittany Higgins story continues its damaging trail, with no end in sight</a>
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<p>The Higgins story has a cast of women. Not just the young woman, a former Liberal staffer, who made the rape allegation. Women were on the front line of the political battle around that story: in 2021 then-ministers Reynolds and Michaelia Cash and Labor spear carriers Wong, Gallagher and then-senator Kristina Keneally.</p>
<p>In the media, women broke the story: Sam Maiden (News Corp) and Lisa Wilkinson (Ten). Janet Albrechtsen (The Australian) has led the counter-narrative. </p>
<p>The separate events that took centre stage this week regarding Gallagher and Van all happened some years ago. In the wake of the damning 2021 Jenkins report on behaviour in parliament house, that workplace has seen reforms, with new independent processes for providing support and handling complaints. People report conduct has improved.</p>
<p>Regardless of this, many members of the public, hearing the news reports of this week, will conclude little has changed. And some voters might think politicians should be talking less about their workplace and more about the issues confronting those in the world outside. </p>
<p>FRIDAY UPDATE: DUTTON SAYS VAN SHOULD QUIT PARLIAMENT </p>
<p>Peter Dutton has said that it would be “in everyone’s best interests” if Van resigned from parliament. “And I hope he’s able to do that sooner than later.” The opposition leader also revealed he was aware of another allegation against Van.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207840/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Federal politics, the tone of which had seemed better than in the last parliamentary term, once again descended into a toxic mire.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2068562023-06-01T04:13:48Z2023-06-01T04:13:48ZPolitics with Michelle Grattan: Liberal MP Bridget Archer urges other moderates to speak up as she presses for party change<p>The Coalition’s decision to oppose the Voice to Parliament has put its moderate members in a jam. Some moderates are active yes advocates, while others are trying to keep low profiles.</p>
<p>Bridget Archer, the outspoken Liberal MP for Bass, is a vocal yes campaigner. More generally, she is also taking a lead in urging the Liberal party to undertake root-and-branch reform. </p>
<p>Archer is pushing for extensive change in a party that is electorally on the ropes, out of office everywhere except her home state of Tasmania. </p>
<p>Since entering parliament in 2019, Archer has crossed the floor on 27 occasion to vote against her party. She admits there are those colleagues who avoid her, but says her decisions are always based on what is in the best interest of her community, and argues the strength of the Liberal Party historically has been for members to be able to sometimes disagree and to do so respectfully. </p>
<p>Her independent stance on a range of issues has brought varied feedback from her local community. “It’s mixed, but generally positive. If I get negative feedback, it is sometimes from Liberal Party members or conservative voters that say ‘I think that you should toe the line’ – there’s this idea that if you have a divergent view, that you’re not a team player.”</p>
<p>But Archer believes “it is possible to be part of a team and to have differences of opinion (sometimes), and that it’s my job to represent to the best of my ability everybody in the electorate, even the people who don’t or didn’t vote for you, I guess.”</p>
<p>In a recent Good Weekend profile Archer called for a “revolution” in the Liberal Party, claiming it is currently “unelectable”. She tells the podcast: “I think this was again borne out in the 2022 election with the rise of community independents […] where people, particularly in some of those metropolitan seats, are not feeling that the party is representing their views anymore […] In regional areas that is not necessarily the case. And we’ve seen with the Coalition, of course, the Nationals holding the seats that they had.</p>
<p>"The great challenge for us is to get back to what I think was the strength of the Liberal Party at one stage, which is the ability to speak across the country, to talk to middle Australia.</p>
<p>"And I think that we’ve lost our way in that.”</p>
<p>Archer also argues Liberal Party values need to shift with the times, particularly its ideology on “the family and home ownership”.</p>
<p>“We have historically talked a lot about home ownership, but we don’t focus so much on rental affordability. […] It’s front of mind for many people in those metropolitan areas and for younger people as well, who have also deserted us in droves.”</p>
<p>The moderates in the party were decimated at the 2022 election. It has left the moderate faction in tatters, and Archer often finds herself isolated when she speaks out against the party line. </p>
<p>“I think it’s a bit frustrating for me sometimes that I feel that I know that there are other people who share my views on some things, but they don’t speak up, which I think sometimes does leave me sort of hanging there as this rogue person when I know that that’s not necessarily the case.”</p>
<p>“I also think it really goes to the heart of some of the reasons why those colleagues did lose their seats at the last election and why we have seen a rise of the teals. In those seats, in many cases people were wanting to vote for Liberals, and they were looking around [to] have a reason to vote for Liberals and they were coming up empty handed.”</p>
<p>Asked if she thought the party was “walking off a cliff,” she doesn’t hesitate. </p>
<p>“Oh, absolutely. Yeah, absolutely.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206856/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Archer is pushing for extensive reform in a party that is electorally on the ropes and out of office everywhere except her home state of Tasmania.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2000692023-04-19T20:10:06Z2023-04-19T20:10:06Z‘A combination of deficiencies’: the ‘disastrous’ Morrison government dissected<p>Almost a year after the victory of the Albanese government, the defects of its predecessors are increasingly obvious. The competence and teamwork of the current government underline the weaknesses of the Morrison regime. The contrast between the two styles of leadership reminds us that bullying is no substitute for collaboration and empathy.</p>
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<p><em>Review: The Morrison Government: Governing Through Crisis – edited by Brendan McCaffrie, Michelle Grattan and Chris Wallace (UNSW Press).</em></p>
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<p>Future historians will probably be most struck by the impact of COVID during those years, and the extraordinary effect the epidemic had upon everyday life. In <a href="https://unsw.press/books/morrison-government/">The Morrison Government: Governing Through Crisis</a>, there are two chapters on the government’s response to the epidemic: one by Stephen Duckett in the policy section, and the other by Mark Evans and Michelle Grattan on the role of experts and democracy. </p>
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<p>Evans and Grattan refer to claims that there was “a Melbourne circle, which Sydney experts believed had privileged access.” This may explain why Duckett was asked to write the substantive chapter on the COVID response. Duckett served as secretary of the federal health department during the Keating government, and is now based at the Grattan Institute. He provides a thorough and persuasive case that Australia’s pandemic response was reasonably strong overall. </p>
<p>“The states provided leadership and made the tough decisions,” he argues. “But the Morrison Government’s record in management of the pandemic was very poor indeed.” </p>
<p>I would be less certain about this distinction. There are questionable aspects in some of the state responses, such as the treatment of housing commission towers in Melbourne and the apparent double standards applied across the Sydney metropolitan area, that need to be acknowledged.</p>
<p>The argument that state premiers became important national leaders is supported by Alan Fenna’s analysis of federalism, which makes it all the more disappointing that this book gives so little insight into figures like Dan Andrews and Gladys Berejiklian, and their often tense relations with the prime minister. Too often the personalities of political figures have been bleached out in the interests of apparent scholarly objectivity.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-scott-morrison-was-sworn-in-to-several-portfolios-other-than-prime-minister-during-the-pandemic-how-can-this-be-done-188718">Explainer: Scott Morrison was sworn in to several portfolios other than prime minister during the pandemic. How can this be done?</a>
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<h2>Rehashing the headlines</h2>
<p>The Morrison Government does a competent job of chronicling the three years between 2019 and 2022, but it is a book to be used for reference rather than as a source of original ideas or insights. Too much of the book seems as if it is rehashing the headlines, while the criticisms are for the most part predictable.</p>
<p>Perhaps this is inevitable when one assembles a large group of experts to write on the very recent past, eschewing the sort of colourful political gossip that one finds in the work of Nikki Savva or the personal insights of Katherine Murphy. Not all of the contributors to The Morrison Government are academics, but the book has some of the mind-numbing quality that too often characterises academics trying to write for a general audience. </p>
<p>This makes it all the more thrilling to come across the opening paragraphs of Stan Grant’s chapter on Indigenous people, which begins with the sentence: </p>
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<p>Aboriginal people can laugh; there are few things more joyous for me than hearing Aboriginal people laugh.</p>
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<p>Grant has written an elegant piece that points to the philosophical questions underlying the demands for an Indigenous Voice to Parliament, though he has very little specific to say about the Morrison government’s actual policy failures.</p>
<p>Other contributors are more diligent in attending to specifics. Andrew Norton on higher education and Julianne Schultz on communications policy provide a wealth of information that remains useful background in the post-Morrison world. In other cases, such as the discussion of economic policy or the response to COVID, there is already a wealth of material available and much of what is here seems inevitably repetitive.</p>
<p>There are chapters on the obvious policy areas. In many of these areas, such as aged care and robodebt, it would be difficult to find much support for the government’s actions. Climate change, which was as significant as COVID in changing perceptions of the Morrison government, is addressed in a chapter by Darren Sinclair and Jo Mummery, which sees the Morrison government’s attitude as one of “denial, marginalisation, reactivity and politicisation”. </p>
<p>By the time I reached this chapter I was wishing for a red-blooded right-winger to offer an alternative assessment of what I agree was a disastrous government. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/amateurish-rushed-and-disastrous-royal-commission-exposes-robodebt-as-ethically-indefensible-policy-targeting-vulnerable-people-201165">'Amateurish, rushed and disastrous': royal commission exposes robodebt as ethically indefensible policy targeting vulnerable people</a>
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<h2>Mind the gaps</h2>
<p>Inevitably, there are gaps in a book of this nature. I would have expected a chapter on immigration and refugee policy. The shameful ongoing treatment of offshore asylum seekers, some of whom have now been imprisoned for longer than most criminals, deserves more than passing attention.</p>
<p>Individual ministers also receive only passing attention, even though some of them – Josh Frydenberg in Treasury, Greg Hunt in Health, Peter Dutton in Defense – were significant figures in the government. </p>
<p>In her chapter on “delegating democracy”, Karen Middleton points to Morrison’s willingness to “jettison the conventions of the Westminster system”, which became most apparent after the election when it was revealed that he had secretly given himself control of some key departments without informing the legally appointed minister. The very title of the book suggests that we are moving towards a semi-presidential system, with a declining understanding of the conventions of cabinet government.</p>
<p>Foreign policy gets a chapter of its own and occasional references elsewhere, usually to AUKUS or to what Michelle Grattan aptly terms the “new Anglosphere”. In his chapter, Tony Walker is so obsessed with Australia’s relations with China and the United States that there is no discussion of relations with Indonesia or Papua New Guinea, or indeed of Australia’s declining foreign assistance, now amongst the lowest of rich countries. Even major foreign policy challenges, such as the American withdrawal from Afghanistan and the continued military repression in Myanmar go unmentioned. </p>
<p>Even odder is the omission throughout the book of any discussion of the war in Ukraine, which commenced three months before the 2022 election, although Walker does refer in passing to the “rules-based international order that is now in danger of fragmenting”. One does not need to be an apologist for the autocratic gangsters in Moscow and Beijing to point out that these rules are essentially the product of western hegemony, and themselves need to be interrogated. </p>
<p>What is lacking, above all, in The Morrison Government is a sense of what it felt like to live through those three years and how this was reflected in the collapse of Morrison’s authority. In her chapter on women and equality, Pia Rowe writes about the government’s failure to agree on a religious discrimination bill, but the religiosity of Morrison, apparently shared by the Governor General, gets little attention. </p>
<p>As a republican, I note that the contributors have written almost 300 pages about the Australian government without discussing the head of state.</p>
<p>Like most other political commentaries of the period, the book devotes considerable space to the emergence of the Teals, including a chapter on Allegra Spender’s successful campaign in Wentworth. Given how much has already been written about the Teals, it might have been more profitable to have looked at the success of the Greens in winning three inner Brisbane seats, or the way in which the collapse of the Liberal Party in Western Australia gave the incoming government a slender majority in the House of Representatives. Nor does the book feature any analysis of the remarkable success of Dai Le in winning what should be one of Labor’s safest Sydney seats.</p>
<p>In her introduction, Grattan states: </p>
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<p>While the Morrison government could claim some successes, it was ultimately felled by a combination of deficiencies, especially in the leadership of the prime minister himself.</p>
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<p>Anyone who doubts her judgement will find much to support it in this book.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200069/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dennis Altman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A new book of essays chronicles the failings of the Morrison government, but leaves much unexamined.Dennis Altman, VC Fellow LaTrobe University, La Trobe UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1955542022-11-30T04:29:19Z2022-11-30T04:29:19Z20 years of tracking sexual harassment at work shows little improvement. But that could be about to change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497805/original/file-20221129-20-c18y6m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C9489%2C4808&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The fifth national survey on sexual harassment in Australian workplaces, published today, shows little has changed since the last survey in 2018 – or indeed since the first survey in 2003. </p>
<p>It points to the importance of the legislative changes being pursued by the Albanese government, including reforms that passed parliament on Monday.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://humanrights.gov.au/time-for-respect-2022">survey of 10,000 Australians</a> was commissioned by the Australian Human Rights Commission and conducted by Roy Morgan Research in August and September. It shows 33% of workers were sexually harassed at work in the previous five years – 41% of women and 26% of men. </p>
<p>This compares with 39% of women and 26% of men <a href="https://humanrights.gov.au/sites/default/files/document/publication/AHRC_WORKPLACE_SH_2018.pdf">in 2018</a>, and with 15% of women and 6% of men <a href="https://humanrights.gov.au/our-work/sexual-harassment-workplace-key-findings-overview">in 2003</a> (though these results cannot be easily compared with the latest figures due to changes in survey methodology). </p>
<p>The most common form of sexually harassment were: </p>
<ul>
<li>comments or jokes (40% of women, 14% of men)</li>
<li>intrusive questions about one’s private life or appearance (32% of women, 14% of men)</li>
<li>inappropriate staring (30% of women, 8% of men)</li>
<li>unwelcome touching, hugging, cornering or kissing (28% of women, 10% of men)</li>
<li>inappropriate physical contact (26% of women, 11% of men).</li>
</ul>
<p>Men were responsible for 91% of harassment of women, and 55% of harassment of men.</p>
<p>Most of those harassed said their harasser also sexually harassed another employee. Just 18% formally reported the harassment. Of those, only 28% said the harassment stopped as a result, while 24% said their harasser faced no consequences. </p>
<h2>Slow work on reforms</h2>
<p>These results highlight the importance of the reforms now being made by the Albanese government, implementing the recommendations of the Australian Human Rights Commission’s 2020 <a href="https://humanrights.gov.au/our-work/sex-discrimination/publications/respectwork-sexual-harassment-national-inquiry-report-2020">Respect@Work</a> report. </p>
<p>That report made 55 recommendations. The Morrison government acted on just a handful. </p>
<p>It amended <a href="https://www.fairwork.gov.au/about-us-legislation-fair-work-system/respect-work-reforms">the Fair Work Act</a> to enable individuals to apply to the Fair Work Commission for a “stop sexual harassment” order, and to make it clear sexual harassment is grounds for dismissal. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="The Morrison government's reforms were focused on responses to harassement complaints, rather than prevention." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/498160/original/file-20221130-20-u0xn2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/498160/original/file-20221130-20-u0xn2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498160/original/file-20221130-20-u0xn2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498160/original/file-20221130-20-u0xn2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498160/original/file-20221130-20-u0xn2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498160/original/file-20221130-20-u0xn2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498160/original/file-20221130-20-u0xn2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Morrison government’s reforms were focused on responses to harassement complaints, rather than prevention.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But it ignored the key recommendation: placing a positive duty on employers to prevent sexual harassment, requiring them to treat harassment like other work health and safety issues. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/sexual-harassment-at-work-isnt-just-discrimination-it-needs-to-be-treated-as-a-health-and-safety-issue-144940">Sexual harassment at work isn't just discrimination. It needs to be treated as a health and safety issue</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>This was needed, the report argued, because treating sexual harassment as being about aberrant individuals led to a workplace focus on individual complaints. It did little to change structural drivers of such behaviour.</p>
<h2>Albanese government commitments</h2>
<p>On Monday, the Albanese government finally made this pivotal reform, when parliament <a href="https://humanrights.gov.au/about/news/media-releases/passage-respectwork-bill-major-step-preventing-harassment">passed its Respect@Work bill</a>. </p>
<p>It is now no longer enough for employers to have a policy and act on complaints. They must also take reasonable and proportionate measures to eliminate sex discrimination, sexual harassment and victimisation.</p>
<p>The government has committed to implementing all 55 recommendations. The Respect@Work bill implements seven. </p>
<p>Others should be achieved with the omnibus industrial relations bill now before the Senate. Improving the conditions and bargaining power of those in insecure and low-paid work, and reducing gender inequalities, should lessen the vulnerabilities that enable harassment to flourish. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-mandate-for-multi-employer-bargaining-without-it-wages-for-the-low-paid-wont-rise-193829">A mandate for multi-employer bargaining? Without it, wages for the low paid won't rise</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Ratifying the ILO convention</h2>
<p>Last week Prime Minister Anthony Albanese also <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/address-international-trade-union-confederation">committed</a> to ratifying the International Labor Organisation’s convention on <a href="https://www.ilo.org/global/topics/violence-harassment/lang--en/index.htm">Eliminating Violence and Harassment in the World of Work</a>.</p>
<p>So far, <a href="https://www.ilo.org/dyn/normlex/en/f?p=1000:11300:0::NO:11300:P11300_INSTRUMENT_ID:3999810">22 nations</a> have ratified the treaty. Ratification will oblige Australia to align its laws and regulations with the treaty’s provisions. </p>
<p>This is significant not just because the convention is the first international treaty to enshrine the right to work free from violence and harassment as its focus. It also breaks with the historical framing of sexual harassment as an individual interpersonal conflict. </p>
<p>The convention calls for an integrated approach to eliminating workplace violence and harassment. In Australia’s case, this will require developing approaches that break down the policy and regulatory fences between anti-discrimination measures, and those covering workplace rights and work health and safety. </p>
<p>This could prove challenging – with sexual harassment being only one form of gender-based violence. But implementing all 55 recommendations of the Respect@Work report is a good start.</p>
<p>Hopefully the sixth national workplace survey will have a better story to tell.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195554/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lisa Heap receives scholarship funds from RMIT University and the Commonwealth Government. </span></em></p>The fifth national survey on sexual harassment in Australian workplaces shows little movement since the last survey in 2018.Lisa Heap, Doctoral Researcher, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1846372022-06-14T20:00:18Z2022-06-14T20:00:18ZBattered by 9 years of Coalition government, the ABC now has a hard road of repair ahead<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468606/original/file-20220613-14-7uiw35.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Joel Carrett/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Liberal-National Coalition government has been defeated, but the legacy of its nine-year onslaught on the ABC remains.</p>
<p>That onslaught consisted of relentless accusations of left-wing bias, a succession of pointless and enervating inquiries, punitive funding cuts, and the use of the ABC for target practice in the Coalition’s interminable climate and culture wars.</p>
<p>The government also joined with News Corporation in a pincer attack on the ABC. But worst of all, it stacked the board.</p>
<p>The Turnbull and Morrison governments routinely appointed to the board people not recommended by the independent merit-based selection process introduced by the Abbott government in 2013, in what turned out to be a piece of rank window-dressing.</p>
<p>Even so, when Scott Morrison took over from Turnbull as prime minister, he wasted no time in using an appearance on ABC television <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/media/2018/sep/30/abc-board-must-get-back-to-work-and-do-better-scott-morrison-says">to warn</a> the ABC board to “expect a bit more attention from me” if it didn’t “do better”.</p>
<p>In fact, the board was already stacked with people appointed by Turnbull’s communications minister, Mitch Fifield, outside the independent merit-based system.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/media/2018/sep/27/abc-board-members-appointed-by-fifield-despite-being-rejected-by-merit-based-panel">Documents obtained</a> at the time by The Guardian Australia showed Fifield had directly appointed five of the eight members then on the board, some of them having been rejected by the nominations panel. Fifield’s appointments included Vanessa Guthrie, chair of the Minerals Council of Australia, a fossil fuel lobby group. </p>
<p>On top of this, to replace chair Justin Milne, Morrison parachuted in his own <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/media/2020/jan/09/two-media-executives-and-lawyer-passed-over-for-ita-buttrose-as-abc-chair-foi-confirms">captain’s pick</a> for chair, Ita Buttrose, disregarding three recommendations from the merit panel.</p>
<p>In May last year, Morrison’s communications minister, Paul Fletcher, appointed three further members to fill <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/media-and-marketing/former-news-corp-executive-joins-abc-board-20210516-p57se0">vacancies on the board</a>. Two of those – Peter Tonagh and Mario D’Orazio – were recommended by the independent nominations panel and one – Fiona Balfour – was not. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468637/original/file-20220614-23-jdqh0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468637/original/file-20220614-23-jdqh0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468637/original/file-20220614-23-jdqh0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468637/original/file-20220614-23-jdqh0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468637/original/file-20220614-23-jdqh0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468637/original/file-20220614-23-jdqh0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468637/original/file-20220614-23-jdqh0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">ABC chair Ita Buttrose was one of those appointed outside the usual merit process.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dan Himbrechts/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The net effect of these comings and goings is that the minister directly appointed three of the seven current non-executive directors – Buttrose, Balfour and Joseph Gersh – outside the nominations process.</p>
<p>A fourth, Peter Lewis, was recommended by a politically loaded panel, including News Corp columnist and former board member Janet Albrechtsen and former Liberal minister Neil Brown, after Lewis had <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/media/2014/oct/02/abc-efficiency-reviewer-peter-lewis-installed-board">produced a report</a> showing how the Abbott government could cut the ABC’s funding.</p>
<p>None of this is to question the integrity of the individuals appointed – in fact, Buttrose has been a robust defender of the ABC. But it raises legitimate questions about how well equipped they are for the job.</p>
<p>For example, does the board as a whole have the guts to stand up for the ABC’s editorial independence, or even a decent understanding of what the term means? The backgrounds of its members, aside from staff member Jane Connors, do not suggest they have any experience of what it is like to do the heavy lifting in journalism, where editorial independence really counts.</p>
<p>Buttrose, Tonagh and Lewis have a ton of experience in corporate media management, and Buttrose of course was a journalist, but not of the kind that makes programs for 4 Corners.</p>
<p>Investigative journalism exposes the journalists doing it to a degree of sometimes personal risk and often severe political and legal pressure. It is essential they have a rock-solid belief that the organisation they work for has their backs. As the founding editor of The Sydney Morning Herald’s investigative unit in 1984, I can personally attest to this.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-news-corp-goes-rogue-on-election-coverage-what-price-will-australian-democracy-pay-181599">As News Corp goes 'rogue' on election coverage, what price will Australian democracy pay?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The ABC’s journalists would be entitled to harbour doubts about this after the board announced in May it was <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-17/independent-review-into-abc-complaints-and-handling-procedures/101072292">appointing an ombudsman</a> to oversee the complaints system.</p>
<p>Not only is this yet another layer of bureaucracy on top of an onerous complaints system already in place, but worse by far is that the ombudsman will report directly to a board that has been politically stacked.</p>
<p>Given most of the complaints that cause trouble for the ABC come from politicians or well-connected people with partisan political interests, that amounts to an outright betrayal of editorial independence.</p>
<p>The decision to appoint an ombudsman was based on a recommendation by a former Commonwealth ombudsman, John McMillan, and Jim Carroll, an experienced commercial television executive, who carried out <a href="https://about.abc.net.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/ABC-COMPLAINT-HANDLING-%E2%80%93-REPORT-OF-THE-INDEPENDENT-REVIEW.pdf">a review</a> of the complaints process. However, they did not recommend the direct reporting line to the board. </p>
<p>This board decision had all the hallmarks of a pre-emptive buckle, the cutting witticism coined long ago by a radio producer to describe the way ABC management reacts to threats and pressure, real or anticipated.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468649/original/file-20220614-17-x3kfuv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468649/original/file-20220614-17-x3kfuv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468649/original/file-20220614-17-x3kfuv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468649/original/file-20220614-17-x3kfuv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468649/original/file-20220614-17-x3kfuv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468649/original/file-20220614-17-x3kfuv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468649/original/file-20220614-17-x3kfuv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former NSW ombudsman John McMillan, along with TV executive Jim Carroll, carried out a review of the ABC’s complaints handling process.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Moir/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In this case it had the desired effect. A month after the ombudsman proposal had been announced, an attempt by Liberal Senator Andrew Bragg to set up a Senate inquiry into the ABC’s complaints system was abandoned.</p>
<p>The decision to review the complaints system was taken in the aftermath of an earlier external review into a complaint about a three-part television series called Exposed: The Ghost Train Fire. The ABC’s complaints unit rejected the complaint, but this decision was vociferously challenged by a group of people anxious to protect the legacy and reputation of the deceased former premier of New South Wales, Neville Wran. One segment in part three of this series contained an unjustifiable implication that Wran was an associate of an organised crime figure, Abe Saffron, who the program alleged was connected with the fire.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-ghost-train-fire-exposed-remarkable-police-corruption-yet-also-failed-abcs-high-journalistic-standards-167042">How Ghost Train Fire exposed remarkable police corruption, yet also failed ABC's high journalistic standards</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The review was conducted by distinguished political scientist Rodney Tiffen of the University of Sydney and the celebrated investigative journalist Chris Masters.</p>
<p>They found against that one segment but were <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/cm/lb/13520202/data/review-data.pdf">otherwise generous</a> in their praise of the series. </p>
<p>The ABC accepted the praise but rejected the negative finding.</p>
<p>Shortly afterwards, in October 2021, the board established the complaints system review by McMillan and Carroll.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468651/original/file-20220614-2622-78wxsx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468651/original/file-20220614-2622-78wxsx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468651/original/file-20220614-2622-78wxsx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468651/original/file-20220614-2622-78wxsx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468651/original/file-20220614-2622-78wxsx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468651/original/file-20220614-2622-78wxsx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468651/original/file-20220614-2622-78wxsx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">It is important that ABC journalists feel the broadcaster’s management has their backs.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The upshot is that ABC journalists are now working in an environment where, if their story generates a complaint, it can end up in the hands of an ombudsman appointed by, and answerable to, a board, four of whose members have been either appointed by ministerial fiat outside the independent merit-based system or by a politically loaded panel.</p>
<p>Former ABC Melbourne broadcaster Jon Faine <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/politicians-should-stay-out-of-abc-complaint-system-overhaul-20211126-p59ch2.html">has described</a> the existing complaints process as: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>a burdensome sledgehammer that chews up work time on sometimes vexatious and often trivial […] things. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>The process is also prone to being bypassed by powerful people who get in the ear of senior managers, leading to investigations outside the system.</p>
<p>McMillan and Carroll say their anecdotal impression is the ABC often resists criticism, particularly of high-profile programs. Doubtless there is truth in this. The self-serving reaction to the Ghost Train Fire report is an example. </p>
<p>However, a simple solution would be to have someone with substantial expertise in investigative journalism seconded to the complaints unit to deal with complex cases like that.</p>
<p>There are many ways to destroy a media institution, but weak boards and uncertain editorial direction are two of the most effective. Look at the Fairfax newspaper company. For more than 150 years it seemed impregnable. Then in 1987, a Fairfax scion, “young” Warwick, privatised the company. It could not sustain the ensuing $1.6 billion debt and its bankers had it auctioned off.</p>
<p>Then a succession of purblind boards and senior management left it mortally exposed to the digital revolution that gutted its classified advertising revenue. Journalistically it struggled to harmonise its print and online content, staff were laid off in droves, and the shrunken remains were absorbed into the Nine Entertainment organisation.</p>
<p>At the ABC a reset is necessary but will take time. The recent appointment as news director of Justin Stevens, a journalist with real runs on the board, encourages the belief that at least the journalists in his division will be given a safe place in which to do good journalism.</p>
<p>However, the big test for the ABC is whether the board as a whole can engender confidence in its willingness to defend the ABC’s editorial independence and send the message to senior management and all ABC journalists that this a place where journalists can do good work without having to look over their shoulder to see if the corporation has their back.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/184637/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>In 2021 I unsuccessfully applied for a position on the ABC board.</span></em></p>One of the national broadcaster’s most urgent challenges will be ensuing its journalists feel management has their backs.Denis Muller, Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Advancing Journalism, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1827702022-05-18T21:00:52Z2022-05-18T21:00:52Z‘A new climate politics’: the 47th parliament must be a contest of ideas for a hotter, low-carbon Australia<p>Climate change and reducing emissions has figured little in the 2022 federal election campaign. But after many years of inadequate national climate policy, the need for sensible, long-term measures is now dire. </p>
<p>The first task of the government in Australia’s 47th parliament must be to increase the national emissions target for 2030. But this is just the first step. Australia urgently needs a proper policy framework to get the nation on a lower emissions path – systematically and for the long term. </p>
<p>A long to-do list on climate policy awaits the new government and those that follow. The issues before us are too difficult, too important and too pressing to abandon them to political point-scoring or ideological zealotry.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="figure in front of burning house" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463538/original/file-20220517-18-flr31u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463538/original/file-20220517-18-flr31u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463538/original/file-20220517-18-flr31u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463538/original/file-20220517-18-flr31u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463538/original/file-20220517-18-flr31u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463538/original/file-20220517-18-flr31u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463538/original/file-20220517-18-flr31u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The climate change issues before us are too great for political point-scoring.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dan Himbrechts/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The to-do list</h2>
<p>Years of climate policy inaction has left plenty of <a href="https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2021-09/78_2021_jotzo_mckibbin_0.pdf">low-hanging fruit</a> ready for the next government to harvest. </p>
<p>On Australia’s emissions reduction out to 2030, the Coalition already expects to do better than the existing 26-28% target. If returned to government, the Coalition could formally raise the target – but presumably there would be no appetite to raise it by much.</p>
<p>Labor has pledged 43% emissions reduction by 2030 – a target, like the Coalition, based on 2005 emissions levels. But that still falls short of the <a href="https://www.bca.com.au/achieving_net_zero_with_more_jobs_and_stronger_regions">46-50%</a> cut urged by the Business Council of Australia, and is far less that the pledges of many other developed countries. </p>
<p>A meaningful target is needed to bolster confidence to low-carbon investors and signal to our international peers that we’re playing our part. </p>
<p>The next government needs to ensure continued private investment for new renewable energy generation, and help bring power infrastructure online quickly and affordably. That means meaningful reform in the national electricity market and working constructively with the states.</p>
<p>And however much it may go against political instinct, the next government must face up to the coal industry’s coming decline. It will need to manage coal plant closures without delaying the renewables transition, and plan for the inevitable fall in export demand for coal and later, gas. </p>
<p>Economies in regions such as central Queensland and the Hunter Valley in New South Wales will change. The federal government has a role in helping prepare for this, again in collaboration with the states.</p>
<p>Importantly, the next federal government must push Australia’s industrial sector to get more energy efficient and shift to renewables. That will keep energy-intensive industries globally competitive in the long term. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="two workers walk past furnace" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463540/original/file-20220517-20-f3d0sc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463540/original/file-20220517-20-f3d0sc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463540/original/file-20220517-20-f3d0sc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463540/original/file-20220517-20-f3d0sc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463540/original/file-20220517-20-f3d0sc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463540/original/file-20220517-20-f3d0sc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463540/original/file-20220517-20-f3d0sc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Australia’s industry must cut its emissions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Daniel Munoz/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Making the existing “safeguards mechanism” effective is the obvious way to start. It should become a “<a href="https://www.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-06/CCARRP/CCA_CFIStudyPublicReportChapter2.pdf">baseline and credit</a>” scheme covering all medium and large industrial polluters, with financial penalties for being above an emissions threshold and financial incentives for being below. </p>
<p>This would create a quasi-carbon price that can later be the stepping stone to a comprehensive carbon pricing scheme. Carbon taxes and emissions trading are widespread elsewhere in the world and a natural part of a comprehensive climate policy package.</p>
<p>The next government must help ensure the transition to electric cars, trucks and trains is smooth, speedy and fair – including through <a href="https://ccep.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/uploads/ccep_crawford_anu_edu_au/2020-12/burke_and_jotzo_-_car_tax_reform_-_afr_2dec2020.pdf">road tax reform</a>. And it should adjust policy and regulation to further decentralise our energy system, including having electric cars providing power to the grid when and where needed. </p>
<p>In the building sector, we need meaningful national energy efficiency standards, low-carbon construction requirements and a push away from gas for heating.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/no-mr-morrison-minority-government-need-not-create-chaos-it-might-finally-drag-australia-to-a-responsible-climate-policy-181706">No, Mr Morrison. Minority government need not create 'chaos' – it might finally drag Australia to a responsible climate policy</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>But what about the cost? Many politicians have created fear by claiming strong climate action means economic doom. In reality, <a href="https://theconversation.com/ipcc-says-the-tools-to-stop-catastrophic-climate-change-are-in-our-hands-heres-how-to-use-them-179654">many carbon-saving investments pay for themselves</a> over time in the form of lower energy costs. Others cost extra but bring benefits such as cleaner air and more secure energy supplies. </p>
<p>The decline of fossil fuel exports will hurt Australia economically, but this is out of our hands. The task here is to foster economic diversification, which should be central in national industry policy. </p>
<p>Beyond the question of lower emissions, it’s high time the federal government got serious about adapting to climate damage that’s already happening and will worsen.</p>
<p>The task for the next government, then, is to help make happen the large investments that will safeguards Australia’s future. This message should be attractive to politicians who want to be seen as leaders.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="girl in crowd at carbon tax protest" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463541/original/file-20220517-18-tfc6v5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463541/original/file-20220517-18-tfc6v5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463541/original/file-20220517-18-tfc6v5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463541/original/file-20220517-18-tfc6v5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463541/original/file-20220517-18-tfc6v5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463541/original/file-20220517-18-tfc6v5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463541/original/file-20220517-18-tfc6v5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Politicians have claimed climate action will bring economic doom.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lukas Coch/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Making it happen</h2>
<p>There is also more work to do to deeply understand the pathways to a cleaner economy in Australia, the problems we face and the opportunities that can be ours. </p>
<p>As just one example, properly funded science will help Australian agriculture progress towards the net-zero emissions goal. It would also help the sector better understand how to respond to challenges such as changed growing conditions and more frequent or severe floods and bushfires.</p>
<p>As a nation, we must also get serious about identifying where and how Australia could become a major player in the energy and commodity industries of a low-carbon world. Australia could be a major international supplier of <a href="https://theconversation.com/to-really-address-climate-change-australia-could-make-27-times-as-much-electricity-and-make-it-renewable-179311">clean energy and zero-carbon commodities</a>. </p>
<p>To get there requires building trust and bringing everyone along.</p>
<h2>Net-zero as a rallying point</h2>
<p>So where to begin for the next government? A good start would be convening an inclusive process towards a proper, <a href="https://ccep.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/ccep_crawford_anu_edu_au/2021-03/ccep2102_-_lts_best_practice_0.pdf">long-term strategy</a> for Australia to reduce its emissions.</p>
<p>The goal of net-zero emissions by 2050 is a rare point of general agreement on climate policy – both across the political spectrum and among the main lobby groups. </p>
<p>But how might we get there? What will it mean for different industries and regions? Where do the economic upsides lie? What are the social pressure points? Finding answers to these questions should be the basis for a real national conversation – one that includes businesses, unions, communities, non-government organisations, the research sector and the media. </p>
<p>Such a process would be very different from that behind the <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/data-and-publications/australias-long-term-emissions-reduction-plan">document</a> accompanying the Coalition government’s net-zero announcement late last year. Whoever is in government next has the chance to run an inclusive process that fully maps out the options and implications of net-zero. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/scott-morrison-attends-pivotal-global-climate-talks-today-bringing-a-weak-plan-that-leaves-australia-exposed-170842">Scott Morrison attends pivotal global climate talks today, bringing a weak plan that leaves Australia exposed</a>
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<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="wind farm on green hills" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463543/original/file-20220517-24-12sy09.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463543/original/file-20220517-24-12sy09.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463543/original/file-20220517-24-12sy09.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463543/original/file-20220517-24-12sy09.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463543/original/file-20220517-24-12sy09.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463543/original/file-20220517-24-12sy09.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463543/original/file-20220517-24-12sy09.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Australia needs a proper net-zero strategy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A new politics</h2>
<p>Whether the next government likes it or not, it will have to deal with climate policy. Obviously, the election outcome will be the key determinant for how far the next government is willing to go.</p>
<p>A Labor government would clearly plan to do more than a returned Coalition government. Either is likely to do more if governing in a parliamentary minority and supported by pro-climate independents. </p>
<p>Yet to get strong, wholehearted action at federal level would require a sea change in politics that presently is not on the cards. The climate wars of yesteryear are the root problem. </p>
<p>At some point this decade, however, Australia needs a complete political reset on climate policy. In a world that needs to act <a href="https://theconversation.com/ipcc-finds-the-world-has-its-best-chance-yet-to-slash-emissions-if-it-seizes-the-opportunity-179653">urgently and deeply</a> on climate change, the political contest should be over how best to do much more. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-hits-low-income-earners-harder-and-poor-housing-in-hotter-cities-is-a-disastrous-combination-180960">Climate change hits low-income earners harder – and poor housing in hotter cities is a disastrous combination</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182770/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Frank Jotzo does not have affiliations or funding sources that are relevant, or likely to be perceived to be relevant, to the subject of this article.</span></em></p>The issues before us are too difficult, too important and too pressing to abandon them to political point-scoring or ideological zealotry.Frank Jotzo, Professor, Crawford School of Public Policy and Head of Energy, Institute for Climate Energy and Disaster Solutions, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1821452022-05-12T04:05:15Z2022-05-12T04:05:15Z4 reasons why the Morrison government’s forestry cash splash is bad policy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462384/original/file-20220511-22-m7tp0n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C0%2C2261%2C1704&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">shutterstock</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>This federal election campaign has involved very little discussion of environmental or natural resource policies, other than mining. An exception is a A$220 million Morrison government pledge for the forestry industry.</p>
<p>The money will <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/morrison-makes-219m-pitch-to-woo-tasmanian-forestry-workers-20220413-p5ada5">be invested</a> in new wood-processing technology and forest product research, and used to extend 11 so-called “regional forestry hubs”. Some $86 million will aid the establishment of new plantations. </p>
<p>Prime Minister Scott Morrison said he would not support “any shutdown of native forestry” and claimed the funding would secure 73,000 existing forestry jobs. The spending on native forests, however, is problematic. In 2019-20, <a href="https://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/research-topics/forests/forest-economics/forest-wood-products-statistics">87% of logs harvested</a> in Australia came from plantations, and more investment is needed to bring this to 100%. </p>
<p>Here, we show how directing public funds to native forest logging is bad for the economy, the climate and biodiversity, and will increase bushfire risk.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="logging truck in plantation timber forest" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462385/original/file-20220511-16-y0hnv1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462385/original/file-20220511-16-y0hnv1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462385/original/file-20220511-16-y0hnv1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462385/original/file-20220511-16-y0hnv1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462385/original/file-20220511-16-y0hnv1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462385/original/file-20220511-16-y0hnv1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462385/original/file-20220511-16-y0hnv1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Money for plantation timber operations is welcome.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>1. Economics</h2>
<p>Native forest logging has long been a marginal economic prospect. The Western Australian government has recognised this, electing to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/sep/08/western-australia-to-ban-native-forest-logging-from-2024-in-move-that-blindsides-industry">halt</a> the practice by the end of 2023. It will instead create sustainable forestry jobs by spending $350 million expanding softwood timber plantations.</p>
<p>The move followed Victoria’s promised end to native forest logging in 2030.</p>
<p>In Victoria, native forest logging has repeatedly incurred <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/logging-agency-blames-lawsuits-after-losing-4m-despite-state-grants-20211122-p59b7e.html">substantial losses</a> across large parts of the state. Data from the state’s Parliamentary Budget Office in 2020 show Victoria would be more than $190 million better off without its native forest logging sector.</p>
<p>Native forest logging sustains <a href="https://www.fwpa.com.au/images/OtherReports/Vic_Report_FINAL.pdf">far fewer</a> jobs than the plantation sector, and does not produce substantial employment opportunities in any mainland Australian state.</p>
<p>For example, only <a href="https://www.frontier-economics.com.au/comparing-the-value-of-alternative-uses-of-native-forests-in-southern-nsw/">about 300</a> direct and indirect jobs are sustained by native forest logging in southern NSW. </p>
<p>A recent <a href="https://www.frontier-economics.com.au/comparing-the-value-of-alternative-uses-of-native-forests-in-southern-nsw/">economic analysis</a> showed ceasing native forest harvesting in that region would bring $62 million in economic benefits – a result likely to be repeated in native forestry areas across Australia.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwiRu4e0s9b3AhUjR2wGHcBqCs0QFnoECAcQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.aph.gov.au%2F-%2Fmedia%2FEstimates%2Frrat%2Fbud1819%2FTabled_Documents%2FAgriculture_and_Water_Resources%2FAg_Tabled_5.pdf%3Fla%3Den%26hash%3D8467BE6D9B8DB76782D1E147025A94C571C9D62C&usg=AOvVaw3jENvR6xz8OhTk4V9lxB58">About 87%</a> of sawn timber used in home construction is derived from plantations. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/logged-native-forests-mostly-end-up-in-landfill-not-in-buildings-and-furniture-115054">vast majority</a> of native forest logged in Victoria and southern NSW goes into woodchips and paper pulp. </p>
<p>Victoria exports 75% of plantation-derived eucalypt pulp logs. A small percentage of this diverted for domestic use would readily <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/11/3/407">replace</a> native forest wood at Victoria’s biggest paper mill at Maryvale. The feasibility of this has been known for years.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/logged-native-forests-mostly-end-up-in-landfill-not-in-buildings-and-furniture-115054">Logged native forests mostly end up in landfill, not in buildings and furniture</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="stacks of milled timber" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462391/original/file-20220511-20-3sn5jc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462391/original/file-20220511-20-3sn5jc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462391/original/file-20220511-20-3sn5jc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462391/original/file-20220511-20-3sn5jc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462391/original/file-20220511-20-3sn5jc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462391/original/file-20220511-20-3sn5jc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462391/original/file-20220511-20-3sn5jc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Jobs in plantation timber far outweigh those in native logging.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>2. Climate change</h2>
<p>Native forest logging in Australia generates <a href="https://law.anu.edu.au/sites/all/files/allfiles/wp2011_1_credits_from_reduced_native_forest_harvesting.pdf">around 38 million tonnes</a> of carbon dioxide (CO₂) a year. </p>
<p>Victoria’s phase-out of native forest logging by 2030 will <a href="https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/protecting-victorias-forests-and-threatened-species-0">reduce emissions</a> by 1.7 million tonnes of CO₂-equivalent gases each year for 25 years, equivalent to taking 730,000 motor vehicles off the road annually. </p>
<p>Ending native forest logging in southern NSW would likely be the <a href="https://www.frontier-economics.com.au/documents/2021/11/comparing-the-value-of-alternative-uses-of-native-forest-in-southern-nsw.pdf/">biggest</a> carbon abatement project in that state.</p>
<p>These benefits also bring economic value. Even under relatively low market prices for carbon, the value of <em>not</em> logging, in terms of reducing greenhouse gases, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-017-0309-1">far exceeds</a> the economic benefits of native forest logging.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/decaying-forest-wood-releases-a-whopping-10-9-billion-tonnes-of-carbon-each-year-this-will-increase-under-climate-change-164406">Decaying forest wood releases a whopping 10.9 billion tonnes of carbon each year. This will increase under climate change</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>3. Bushfire risk</h2>
<p>There’s now unequivocal evidence that logging native trees makes forests prone to more severe bushfires. <a href="https://www.anu.edu.au/news/all-news/logging-amplified-severity-of-black-summer-bushfires">Analysis</a> of the 2019-20 Black Summer fires showed logged forests always burn more severely than intact ones. </p>
<p>Under moderate fire weather conditions during Black Summer, logged forests burned at higher severity than intact forests burning under extreme fire weather.</p>
<p>These logging-generated risks were particularly pronounced in southern and northern NSW. Importantly, they were also <a href="https://conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/conl.12122">evident</a> in Victoria’s 2009 Black Saturday fires in Victoria.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coming-of-age-research-shows-old-forests-are-3-times-less-flammable-than-those-just-burned-179571">Coming of age: research shows old forests are 3 times less flammable than those just burned</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="smoke and fire in native forest" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462389/original/file-20220511-18-dcgp6q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462389/original/file-20220511-18-dcgp6q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462389/original/file-20220511-18-dcgp6q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462389/original/file-20220511-18-dcgp6q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462389/original/file-20220511-18-dcgp6q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462389/original/file-20220511-18-dcgp6q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462389/original/file-20220511-18-dcgp6q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Logging makes forests more prone to severe fires.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Darren Jennings/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>4. Biodiversity conservation</h2>
<p>Numerous studies have demonstrated the damage native forest logging causes to biodiversity. In Victoria, for example, a 2019 analysis of areas proposed for logging <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/aec.12805">showed</a> it would negatively affect 70 threatened forest-dependent species, such as the Leadbeater’s possum.</p>
<p>The bottom line is that ongoing logging will drive yet further declines of Australia’s threatened species and add to the nation’s sad record on biodiversity loss. </p>
<h2>The upshot</h2>
<p>The empirical evidence points in one direction: ending native forest logging in Australia would bring substantial and multiple benefits to society and nature.</p>
<p>We welcome the Morrison government’s spending on supporting new plantations. To create the most positive return on taxpayer investment, however, the bulk of other industry funding should be directed to enhancing manufacturing and markets for high-value wood products from plantation timber.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182145/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Lindenmayer receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Australian Government, and the Victorian Government. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brendan Mackey receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the federal government. He is on the board on the not-for-profit organisation Great Eastern Ranges and is a member of the Queensland government's Native Timber Advisory Panel.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Heather Keith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Directing public funds to native forest logging is bad for the economy, the climate and biodiversity, and will increase bushfire risk.David Lindenmayer, Professor, The Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National UniversityBrendan Mackey, Director, Griffith Climate Action Beacon, Griffith UniversityHeather Keith, Senior Research Fellow in Ecology, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1825132022-05-05T19:59:50Z2022-05-05T19:59:50ZScorched dystopia or liveable planet? Here’s where the climate policies of our political hopefuls will take us<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461493/original/file-20220505-1494-nbfd4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C8%2C5551%2C3692&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Mariuz/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The federal election campaign takes place against a background of flooding on Australia’s east coast, where some <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/01/nsw-flood-victims-kicked-out-of-caravan-parks-to-make-way-for-tourists">residents</a> remain in temporary accommodation a month after the disaster. It’s just the latest reminder Australia is set to become a poster child for climate change harms.</p>
<p>Australia has warmed about <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/factsheets/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Regional_Fact_Sheet_Australasia.pdf">1.4°C since 1910</a>. With it <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/outreach/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FactSheet_Australasia.pdf">has come</a> extreme heat, bushfires, floods, drought and now, a sixth <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/mar/25/we-need-action-immediately-great-barrier-reef-authority-confirms-sixth-mass-coral-bleaching-event">huge bleaching event</a> on the Great Barrier Reef. </p>
<p>Yet meaningful climate policy debate has largely been absent from this election campaign. So Climate Analytics, a research organisation I lead, has weighed up the policies of the Coalition, Labor, the Greens and the “teal” independents. </p>
<p>We <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/publications/2022/australian-election-2022-political-party-and-independent-climate-goals-analysis/">analysed</a> the global warming implications of each party’s or candidate’s target for 2030. </p>
<p>As the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/resources/press/press-release">warns</a>, this timeframe is crucial if the world is to stay below the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Dramatic action by 2030 is also vital to reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 or earlier.</p>
<p>Alarmingly, the Coalition’s climate policy is consistent with a very dangerous 3°C of global warming. Labor’s policy is slightly better, but only policies by the Greens and the “teals” are consistent with keeping global warming at or below 1.5°C.</p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-687" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/687/a89f5238821e47b288052a287fbfaa98d2581d3d/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>The Coalition</h2>
<p>The Morrison government is pursing 26-28% emissions reduction by 2030, based on 2005 levels. If all other national governments took a similar level of action, Earth would reach at least 3°C of warming, bordering on 4°C, our analysis shows. </p>
<p>That would mean the total destruction of all tropical reefs including Ningaloo and the Great Barrier Reef. And intense heatwaves over land that currently occur about once a decade could happen almost every other year.</p>
<p>At the United Nations climate conference in Glasgow last year, the Morrison government famously refused to increase its 2030 commitments. But the final pact from the meeting, which Australia signed, requires that by November this year, governments will strengthen their 2030 targets to align with the 1.5°C goal.</p>
<p>Australia is under strong international pressure to meet this obligation, or face further <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/stupid-investment-un-chief-slams-coal-and-australia-in-extraordinary-climate-speech/">global condemnation</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="man in suit shakes hands with person in crowd" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461491/original/file-20220505-15-yssztk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461491/original/file-20220505-15-yssztk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461491/original/file-20220505-15-yssztk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461491/original/file-20220505-15-yssztk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461491/original/file-20220505-15-yssztk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461491/original/file-20220505-15-yssztk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461491/original/file-20220505-15-yssztk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Morrison government’s climate policies are consistent with global warming that would destroy the Great Barrier Reef.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Labor</h2>
<p>Labor’s target of a 43% emissions cut by 2030, from 2005 levels, is in line with 2°C of global warming. That means it’s not consistent with the Paris Agreement.</p>
<p>Under 2°C of warming, extreme heat events that currently happen once a decade could occur about every three to four years. And they would reach maximum temperatures <a href="https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch">about 1.7°C hotter</a> than heatwaves in recent decades. </p>
<p>Should Earth overshoot 1.5°C warming and perhaps reach 2°C, some suggest this may be temporary and temperatures could be brought back down. This would require technologies that remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. But such technologies are <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/media/temperature-overshoots_ar6.pdf">uncertain</a> and come with risks. </p>
<p>And the IPCC’s <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_SummaryForPolicymakers.pdf">recent report</a> warned even if 1.5°C warming is exceeded temporarily, severe and potentially irreversible damage would result. The total loss of the Great Barrier Reef is just one example.</p>
<p>Under 2°C of warming the most extreme heat events that occurred once in a decade in recent times could occur about every three to four years. The heatwaves would also reach a maximum temperature 1.7°C hotter than those in recent decades.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="two men stand in front of signs" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461492/original/file-20220505-15-nbfd4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461492/original/file-20220505-15-nbfd4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461492/original/file-20220505-15-nbfd4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461492/original/file-20220505-15-nbfd4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461492/original/file-20220505-15-nbfd4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461492/original/file-20220505-15-nbfd4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461492/original/file-20220505-15-nbfd4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Labor’s climate policy is not consistent with the Paris Agreement.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lukas Coch/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>‘Teal’ independents</h2>
<p>The “teals” are a group of pro-climate independent candidates.</p>
<p>Most prominent is Warringah MP Zali Steggall, whose climate change <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Bills_Legislation/Bills_Search_Results/Result?bId=r6617">bill</a> proposes a 2030 target of 60% below 2005 levels. Most climate policies of the “teals” are generally in line with the Steggall bill.</p>
<p>The target is also <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jan/26/business-council-of-australia-backs-zali-steggalls-climate-change-bill-for-2050-net-zero-target">supported by industry</a>. </p>
<p>We find this target consistent with 1.5°C of warming, and so compatible with the Paris Agreement. However, it’s at the upper end of the emission levels consistent with the 1.5°C pathway. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-teal-independents-are-seeking-liberal-voters-and-spooking-liberal-mps-182133">Why teal independents are seeking Liberal voters and spooking Liberal MPs</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="smartly-dressed woman with red background" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461494/original/file-20220505-26-ypyak1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461494/original/file-20220505-26-ypyak1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461494/original/file-20220505-26-ypyak1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461494/original/file-20220505-26-ypyak1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461494/original/file-20220505-26-ypyak1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461494/original/file-20220505-26-ypyak1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461494/original/file-20220505-26-ypyak1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Zali Steggall’s climate policy is consistent with 1.5°C of warming.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bianca Di Marchi/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The Greens</h2>
<p>Of all the climate policies on the table this election, the Greens target of a 74% cut by 2030, based on 2005 levels, is most comfortably consistent with keeping warming below 1.5°C.</p>
<p>That level of warming would still cause damage to Earth’s natural systems and our way of life. But it would avert significant devastation – for example, allowing parts of the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-25/ningaloo-reef-high-risk-of-coral-bleaching-from-climate-change/100935764">Ningaloo</a> and <a href="https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0000004">Great Barrier</a> reefs to survive. </p>
<p>Under 1.5°C global warming, the most <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM_final.pdf">extreme heat events</a> that presently occur once a decade could be limited to about every five to six years. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/polls-show-a-jump-in-the-greens-vote-but-its-real-path-to-power-lies-in-reconciling-with-labor-181705">Polls show a jump in the Greens vote – but its real path to power lies in reconciling with Labor</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>The land sector problem</h2>
<p>Our calculations above do not paint a rosy picture. But they are, in fact, optimistic.</p>
<p>That’s because they include emission reductions from the land and forestry sector through such activities as tree planting and maintaining native vegetation. These so-called carbon sinks were recently described by a key insider as a “<a href="https://law.anu.edu.au/sites/all/files/what_the_beare_and_chambers_report_really_found_and_a_critique_of_its_method_16_march_2022.pdf">fraud</a>”.</p>
<p>If the land and forest sector is excluded from the analysis, the various emissions reduction targets fall considerably: to between 11% and 13% for the Coalition, 31% for Labor, 50% for the teals and 67% for the Greens. </p>
<p>What’s more, even warming limited to 1.5°C will <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FinalDraft_Chapter11.pdf">reduce</a> the capacity of the land sector to remove and store carbon.</p>
<h2>Over to you</h2>
<p>The scientific consensus is <a href="https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6wg3/pdf/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_SummaryForPolicymakers.pdf">clear</a>. Greenhouse gas emissions must peak by 2025 at the latest and plummet thereafter, to limit global warming to 1.5°C. </p>
<p>Unless policies are substantially strengthened, Earth is set to hit 1.5°C warming in the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/warming">2030s</a>, and a future of at least 3°C warming awaits.</p>
<p>The onus is on the next parliament to protect Australians from climate catastrophe. On May 21, Australian voters have a chance to send a clear message about the kind of world we want to leave for future generations.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/seriously-ugly-heres-how-australia-will-look-if-the-world-heats-by-3-c-this-century-157875">Seriously ugly: here's how Australia will look if the world heats by 3°C this century</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182513/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bill Hare receives funding from the European Climate Foundation, Climate Works Foundation, Bloomberg Philanthropy, and Solutions for Climate, a project of Climate Action Network Australia.</span></em></p>The Coalition’s climate policy is consistent with a very dangerous 3°C of global warming. But one party is comfortably consistent with keeping warming at safe levels.Bill Hare, Adjunct Professor, Murdoch UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1823222022-05-04T20:07:39Z2022-05-04T20:07:39ZAustralia is missing 500,000 migrants, but we don’t need visa changes to lure them back<p>COVID-19 travel restrictions brought migration to Australia to a virtual standstill, and over the course of the pandemic about 500,000 temporary migrants have left our shores. Now many Australian businesses are screaming out for more workers. </p>
<p>So, who are Australia’s missing migrants, where did they work, and when might they come back?</p>
<h2>Which migrants are missing?</h2>
<p>The Grattan Institute’s new report, <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/migrants-in-the-australian-workforce">Migrants in the workforce</a>, shows there were about 1.5 million temporary migrants in Australia as of January 2022, compared with almost 2 million in 2019.</p>
<p>The 500,000 “missing migrants” are mainly international students and working holiday makers. </p>
<p>There are roughly 335,000 international students in Australia now – about half as many as in 2019 – and only 19,000 working holiday makers – about 85% fewer. </p>
<p>The number of temporary skilled workers is down by about 20%. Almost all of the 660,000 New Zealand citizens living in Australia on temporary visas remained throughout the pandemic.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461164/original/file-20220504-19-6jzzzb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461164/original/file-20220504-19-6jzzzb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461164/original/file-20220504-19-6jzzzb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461164/original/file-20220504-19-6jzzzb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461164/original/file-20220504-19-6jzzzb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461164/original/file-20220504-19-6jzzzb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461164/original/file-20220504-19-6jzzzb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461164/original/file-20220504-19-6jzzzb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Department of Home Affairs</span></span>
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</figure>
<hr>
<p>This shortfall of migrants from the uncapped temporary migration program is hurting some businesses more than others. Before the pandemic about 17% of workers employers hospitality were here on temporary visas. These temporary migrants were overwhelmingly international students earning some money as waiters, kitchen hands and bar attendants.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461167/original/file-20220504-26-wqvofy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461167/original/file-20220504-26-wqvofy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461167/original/file-20220504-26-wqvofy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=342&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461167/original/file-20220504-26-wqvofy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=342&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461167/original/file-20220504-26-wqvofy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=342&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461167/original/file-20220504-26-wqvofy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461167/original/file-20220504-26-wqvofy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461167/original/file-20220504-26-wqvofy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Grattan analysis of ABS 2016 census</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>Demand for these services remains high, so it’s little wonder employers in the hospitality industry are screaming out for staff. The most recent data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows about 33% of hospitality businesses in February <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/jobs/job-vacancies-australia/latest-release">were advertising for extra staff</a>, compared with 15% in February 2020.</p>
<p>Meanwhile farmers are struggling because working holiday makers, who have made up about 4% of the agricultural workforce, are almost entirely absent.</p>
<h2>Border closures have boosted wages where temporary migrants typically work</h2>
<p>Some commentators, such as <a href="https://twitter.com/sallymcmanus/status/1488628657531002880?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1488628657531002880%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftheconversation.com%2Fa-myth-that-wont-die-stopping-migration-did-not-kickstart-the-economy-176457">Australian Council of Trade Unions head Sally McManus</a> have attributed Australia’s historically low unemployment to the border closures. </p>
<p>Closed borders may well have boosted the employment prospects and wages of locals in sectors where temporary migrants – especially students and working holiday makers – have made up a large share of the workforce. That’s likely to have benefited younger Australians, especially those working in hospitality.</p>
<p>But the fact there are fewer migrants in Australia now than before the pandemic is unlikely to have had much impact on the employment prospects and wages of Australian workers overall. </p>
<p>When migrants come to Australia, they spend money – on groceries, housing, transport, hospitality and so on. Fewer migrants means less of that spending, which means less demand for labour to make those goods and provide those services.</p>
<p>Grattan Institute research <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-myth-that-wont-die-stopping-migration-did-not-kickstart-the-economy-176457">published in Febuary</a> shows government spending and the Reserve Bank’s stimulus policies, not border closures, are the main reason for the the low unemployment rate. </p>
<p><a href="https://grattan.edu.au/news/whats-driving-australias-record-low-unemployment-border-closures-or-stimulus/">Our analysis</a> shows the effect record low interest rates and unprecedented levels of government support for businesses and households is seven to eight times larger than the effect of the border closure.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-myth-that-wont-die-stopping-migration-did-not-kickstart-the-economy-176457">A myth that won't die: stopping migration did not kickstart the economy</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Whoever wins the federal election should resist the temptation to make permanent changes to visa policy</h2>
<p>The federal government has implemented short-term measures to attract international students and working holiday makers back to Australia. It is refunding the application fee to those applying for such visas, and has <a href="https://minister.homeaffairs.gov.au/AlexHawke/Pages/support-for-australian-tourism-and-hospitality.aspx">removed the 40-hour per fortnight cap</a> on working hours for international students.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461170/original/file-20220504-14-d96zum.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461170/original/file-20220504-14-d96zum.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461170/original/file-20220504-14-d96zum.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=342&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461170/original/file-20220504-14-d96zum.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=342&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461170/original/file-20220504-14-d96zum.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=342&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461170/original/file-20220504-14-d96zum.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461170/original/file-20220504-14-d96zum.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461170/original/file-20220504-14-d96zum.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Grattan analysis of ABS labour force data</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>But whichever party wins the election should avoid further changes to visa policy in response to what are short-term labour shortages.</p>
<p>Students and working holiday makers are likely to gradually return now that borders have reopened. Treasury <a href="https://budget.gov.au/2022-23/content/bp1/download/bp1_2022-23.pdf">expects</a> the net overseas migration to increase from 41,000 people in 2021-22 to 180,000 in 2022-23 and 213,000 in 2023-24.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/more-permanent-skilled-visas-is-a-step-in-the-right-direction-180324">More permanent skilled visas is a step in the right direction</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>History shows expanding pathways to lower-skill, lower-wage migrants risks putting downward pressure on the wages of workers now in those roles. </p>
<p>As we have seen in agriculture and hospitality sectors, once an industry relies on low-wage labour, it is hard to wind the clock back.</p>
<p>Temporary changes to migration policy to solve short-term problems have a habit of becoming permanent.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182322/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the Federal and Victorian Governments, $4 million from BHP Billiton, and $1 million from NAB. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute's board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and contribute to funding Grattan Institute's activities. Grattan Institute also receives funding from corporates, foundations, and individuals to support its general activities, as disclosed on its website. We would also like to thank the Scanlon Foundation for its generous support of this project.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brendan Coates does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Australia’s 500,000 ‘missing’ temporary migrants have exacerbated labour shortages in some sectors. But there’s no need for policy makers to panic.Will Mackey, Senior Associate, Grattan InstituteBrendan Coates, Program Director, Economic Policy, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1809712022-04-19T20:18:25Z2022-04-19T20:18:25ZExplainer: what are Labor and the Coalition promising on an anti-corruption commission and what is the government’s record?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458477/original/file-20220419-16-43tb6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Mick Tsikas</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As the election is looming, the Labor Party has placed integrity issues prominently on its party platform. Labor leader Anthony Albanese <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-says-pm-cannot-be-trusted-as-cash-shelves-integrity-commission-pledge-20220207-p59ubk.html">claims</a> the Morrison government cannot be trusted, and that the only way to restore integrity is to elect a new government. </p>
<p>On the other hand, the Coalition government has downplayed integrity issues. When questioned about his broken promise to establish an integrity commission, Morrison <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-19/federal-icac-labor-coalition-election-promises/100997224">said</a>, “I’ll talk about what my priorities are: jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs and jobs”, giving rise to speculation the Coalition is walking back from its 2019 election promise to establish an independent anti-corruption commission.</p>
<p>Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce has <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-19/federal-icac-labor-coalition-election-promises/100997224">said</a> most voters would not care that a national integrity commission has not been established by the government. <a href="https://news.griffith.edu.au/2018/08/20/griffith-research-shows-trust-in-government-slides/">Research</a> suggests otherwise.</p>
<p>So, how has the Morrison government fared in corruption issues?</p>
<h2>Still no integrity commission</h2>
<p>The centrepiece of the Morrison government’s failure to address corruption is its failure to establish a Commonwealth Integrity Commission. </p>
<p>There is strong <a href="https://news.griffith.edu.au/2018/08/20/griffith-research-shows-trust-in-government-slides/">public support</a> for a federal anti-corruption commission, with two-thirds (67%) of Australians in favour of such a body.</p>
<p>After pressure from the opposition, independent MPs and advocacy groups, in 2018, the government reluctantly agreed to set up a federal integrity commission. </p>
<p>However, the weak, watered-down model the government <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-proposed-national-integrity-commission-is-a-watered-down-version-of-a-federal-icac-108753">proposed</a> was roundly criticised by legal experts and commentators. It would not have the power to hold public hearings, make findings of corruption, or act on public tip-offs. </p>
<p>Morrison’s proposed model also has a high threshold of investigation, requiring a suspicion of criminal corruption. This means it is hard for the proposed commission to even start an investigation.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-proposed-national-integrity-commission-is-a-watered-down-version-of-a-federal-icac-108753">The proposed National Integrity Commission is a watered-down version of a federal ICAC</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Labor is promising a stronger National Anti-Corruption Commission within six months if it wins the election, with the power to hold public hearings and the ability to make findings of corrupt conduct in public reports.</p>
<p>In short, for three years, the Morrison government dragged its feet, and finally shelved the proposal to establish an integrity commission in its term. It all ended in a whimper. </p>
<h2>Rorting aplenty</h2>
<p>Meanwhile, there have been plenty of examples of why an anti-corruption body is needed. The Morrison government has been beset by rorting scandals, such as</p>
<ul>
<li><p>the <a href="https://theconversation.com/another-day-another-rorts-scandal-this-time-with-car-parks-how-can-we-fix-the-system-163645">“car park rorts”</a></p></li>
<li><p>the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-sports-rorts-affair-shows-the-need-for-a-proper-federal-icac-with-teeth-122800">“sports rorts”</a></p></li>
<li><p>the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/oct/19/senator-i-agree-30m-western-sydney-airport-land-deal-looks-like-a-cover-up-says-infrastructure-chief">Western Sydney airport deal</a></p></li>
<li><p>the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-23/investigation-asic-launched-chair-james-shipton-stepping-aside/12807278">ASIC chair’s tax advice bill</a></p></li>
<li><p>the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/oct/31/not-a-drop-of-water-after-government-spends-80m-on-rights-from-agribusiness">Angus Taylor water buyback scheme</a> (just to name a few). </p></li>
</ul>
<p>If politicians abuse their powers in allocating public funds, it can give rise to political favouritism and corruption. </p>
<p>The continual and repeated misuse of public money erodes public trust in government. It creates the perception of politicians having their snouts in the trough, and rewarding their friends and cronies. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458478/original/file-20220419-146310-ifqmc9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458478/original/file-20220419-146310-ifqmc9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458478/original/file-20220419-146310-ifqmc9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458478/original/file-20220419-146310-ifqmc9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458478/original/file-20220419-146310-ifqmc9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458478/original/file-20220419-146310-ifqmc9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458478/original/file-20220419-146310-ifqmc9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bridget McKenzie resigned from federal cabinet over the ‘sports rorts’ affair.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Marc Tewksbury</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Drop in corruption rankings</h2>
<p>Australia has fallen steadily in Transparency International’s global corruption index, from 8th place in 2012 to 13th in 2021. Even so, Australia is the 13th-least corrupt country in the world, which is still a respectable ranking.</p>
<p>Public perception on government corruption is grim. A Vote Compass survey <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-14/vote-compass-australians-worried-corruption-politics-election/100990918">found</a> 85% of Australians believe corruption is a problem in this country, while only 1% say it is not a problem at all.</p>
<p>More alarming is the fact one in 20 Australian public servants said in a <a href="https://stateoftheservice.apsc.gov.au/2018/01/aps-values-code-conduct-2/">survey</a> they had seen a colleague acting in a corrupt manner. This figure has doubled in the past three years.</p>
<h2>Undue influence in government</h2>
<p>There are also other activities that do not amount to corruption, but nevertheless shows an undue influence on government. </p>
<p>The influence of money in politics is strong, with <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-how-does-our-political-donations-system-work-and-is-it-any-good-60159">lax donations rules</a> at the federal level. Big donors may have more access and influence in government. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.crikey.com.au/2021/12/20/lobbyists-access-power-influence-cheats-democracy/">game of mates</a> also proliferates, where those who can afford well-connected lobbyists have better access to politicians. This skews democratic participation towards the well-heeled, rather than the person on the street. </p>
<p>There should be stronger rules on lobbying and political donations, as well as a code of conduct for MPs, policed by an independent commissioner.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-the-government-drags-its-heels-a-better-model-for-a-federal-integrity-commission-has-emerged-148796">As the government drags its heels, a better model for a federal integrity commission has emerged</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>The verdict</h2>
<p>The Morrison term has not inspired much confidence in terms of integrity issues. Their failure to address corruption and undue influence, and their continual rorting of the public purse, show a blatant disregard of the electorate’s wishes and needs. </p>
<p>Our faith in government has been eroded by a lack of transparency and the perception that those in power are enjoying unfair benefits. Creating robust institutions, rules and processes that can act as checks and balances on governmental power is key to a vibrant democracy - and will be the first step towards rebuilding public trust.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/180971/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Yee-Fui Ng does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Morrison government has walked back on its pledge to establish a federal anti-corruption commission, while its term in government was peppered with allegations of corrupt behaviour.Yee-Fui Ng, Associate Professor, Faculty of Law, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1808822022-04-11T19:57:17Z2022-04-11T19:57:17ZThe Morrison government wants farmers to profit from looking after the land – but will anyone want to pay?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457294/original/file-20220411-19-6o5s21.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C11%2C3793%2C2530&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The richness of Earth’s plant and animal species is rapidly declining. In Australia, responsibility for this biodiversity loss lies in many quarters – including agriculture.</p>
<p>To help address the problem, the federal government is pursuing a “biodiversity stewardship” policy to encourage farmers and other landholders to adopt practices that benefit native species, by financially rewarding them for their efforts.</p>
<p>Farmers who restore, enhance or protect biodiversity will receive credits, which can then be sold on private markets. </p>
<p>But a bill before parliament reveals the scheme devised by the Morrison government is potentially problematic. It may fail on two counts: to protect biodiversity and to create new income for farmers.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="three men stand next to wire fence" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457296/original/file-20220411-16-jglebd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457296/original/file-20220411-16-jglebd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457296/original/file-20220411-16-jglebd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457296/original/file-20220411-16-jglebd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457296/original/file-20220411-16-jglebd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457296/original/file-20220411-16-jglebd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457296/original/file-20220411-16-jglebd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The government says landholders should be rewarded for boosting biodiversity. Pictured: Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Agriculture Minister David Littleproud speak to a farmer.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lukas Coch/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Will demand meet supply?</h2>
<p>The government says farmers already help maintain biodiversity, but to date have not earned income from these efforts.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=BillId_Phrase%3Ar6832%20Title%3A%22second%20reading%22%20Content%3A%22I%20move%22%7C%22and%20move%22%20Content%3A%22be%20now%20read%20a%20second%20time%22%20(Dataset%3Ahansardr%20%7C%20Dataset%3Ahansards);rec=0">bill</a> allows for the supply of tradeable biodiversity “certificates” issued by the government to landholders who, for example, plant native tree species or actively manage their land to protect existing vegetation.</p>
<p>Introducing the bill to Parliament, Agriculture Minister David Littleproud said it would:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“position Australia’s national biodiversity market as a trusted way to invest in robust and assured biodiversity benefits […] It will bring together interest from farmers, on the supply side, and corporate and philanthropic buyers, on the demand side.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>But in reality, there is no guarantee demand for the credits will meet supply.</p>
<p>Biodiversity credits are not products that a business or person needs. Unless a business is seeking to actively boost its environmental credentials, demand for biodiversity credits <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.5822/978-1-61091-608-0">comes largely</a> from government intervention.</p>
<p>The experience of the United Kingdom shows how governments can create genuine demand for biodiversity credits. In 2021, the UK passed legislation declaring a net gain in biodiversity was required before a development could receive <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2021/30/section/98/enacted">planning permission</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="new plantings in field" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457298/original/file-20220411-18-xm03s4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457298/original/file-20220411-18-xm03s4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457298/original/file-20220411-18-xm03s4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457298/original/file-20220411-18-xm03s4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457298/original/file-20220411-18-xm03s4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457298/original/file-20220411-18-xm03s4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457298/original/file-20220411-18-xm03s4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In the UK, planning legislation stimulates demand for biodiversity credits.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It means, for example, a project which requires cutting down native trees could buy biodiversity credits from farmers to not just compensate for the damage, but leave nature in an overall better state.</p>
<p>No such “net gain” mandate exists in Australia. But federal environment law does include requirements for projects to <a href="https://epbcactreview.environment.gov.au/resources/interim-report/chapter-8-restoration/81-environmental-offsets-do-not-offset-impacts-developments">offset</a> damage caused.</p>
<p>The market proposal for Australia’s biodiversity credits <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id%3A%22legislation%2Fems%2Fr6832_ems_5931a93e-88e2-4aa4-b49a-826d7ebc187e%22;rec=0">makes reference</a> to this. But it overlooks one important factor.</p>
<p>Under federal law, offsets only apply where the actions to boost biodiversity <a href="https://www.awe.gov.au/environment/epbc/publications/factsheet-epbc-act-frequently-asked-questions">directly benefit</a> the part of nature being damaged.</p>
<p>For example, say a housing project requires destroying a forest where koalas live. That damage is only offset if that same type of forest is planted or restored somewhere else where koalas will benefit.</p>
<p>But under the proposed biodiversity stewardship scheme, credits will represent different projects – and therefore different environmental benefits. In industry speak, such credits are known as “non-fungible”.</p>
<p>This runs a real risk that the credits on offer from farmers may not match what the market wants.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-major-report-excoriated-australias-environment-laws-sussan-leys-response-is-confused-and-risky-154254">A major report excoriated Australia's environment laws. Sussan Ley's response is confused and risky</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="dead koala in cleared forest" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457299/original/file-20220411-19-kiyvq1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457299/original/file-20220411-19-kiyvq1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457299/original/file-20220411-19-kiyvq1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457299/original/file-20220411-19-kiyvq1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457299/original/file-20220411-19-kiyvq1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457299/original/file-20220411-19-kiyvq1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457299/original/file-20220411-19-kiyvq1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Land clearing can damage the habitat of native species such as koalas.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Wilderness Society</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A subsidy by another name?</h2>
<p>Another option proposed under the bill involves the government directly purchasing biodiversity credits – at a potential <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/legislation/ems/r6832_ems_5931a93e-88e2-4aa4-b49a-826d7ebc187e/upload_pdf/JC004937.pdf;fileType=application%2Fpdf">cost</a> of A$2 billion dollars a year for the next 30 years.</p>
<p>Direct government funding of such schemes is not without merit. Biodiversity is a <a href="https://theconversation.com/nature-is-a-public-good-a-plan-to-save-it-using-private-markets-doesnt-pass-muster-161361">public good</a> and the benefits of conserving it are widespread. So the conservation costs must be similarly spread. </p>
<p>But such funding means the biodiversity market proposal could be considered a subsidy scheme – and so may be seen as flouting global trade rules. </p>
<p>The government has been at pains to emphasise the bill is not about displacing prime farmland. Actions for which farmers are paid are intended to take place on land that’s not agriculturally productive. </p>
<p>But under World Trade Organisation rules, <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/docs_e/legal_e/14-ag_01_e.htm">agricultural subsidies</a> can only replace existing income. So, if the Australian government foots the bill for credits, the scheme suddenly resembles a subsidy which is disallowed under our <a href="https://research.senedd.wales/research-articles/what-are-the-world-trade-organisation-rules-around-agriculture/">global obligations</a>.</p>
<p>And finally, direct government funding of the scheme means costs will be borne across the taxpayer base, instead of by those causing the worst damage (and profiting from it).</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two people walk past WTO sign" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457301/original/file-20220411-25-xi5gwx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457301/original/file-20220411-25-xi5gwx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457301/original/file-20220411-25-xi5gwx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457301/original/file-20220411-25-xi5gwx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457301/original/file-20220411-25-xi5gwx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457301/original/file-20220411-25-xi5gwx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457301/original/file-20220411-25-xi5gwx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The scheme may be considered a subsidy, flouting global trade rules.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Salvatore Di Nolfi/EPA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Looking ahead</h2>
<p>The dissolution of parliament ahead of the federal election means the bill has lapsed. We can assume a re-elected Morrison government will reintroduce it. </p>
<p>Labor has <a href="https://www.farmonline.com.au/story/5973892/farmers-to-get-paid-for-public-benefits-from-their-land/">promised</a> to reform land management if elected. It’s unclear whether it would support the biodiversity credits scheme as proposed by the Coalition, however it will be <a href="https://greensmps.org.au/articles/greens-move-senate-inquiry-biodiversity-offsets-market-and-call-labor-stand-barnaby-joyce">under pressure</a> from the Greens to make the measures more robust.</p>
<p>More broadly, creating a market for biodiversity credits is only a very small step in what’s needed to reverse biodiversity loss in Australia. Real change requires a paradigm shift, in which environmental damage forms part of the costs of a project – and influences decisions about whether it’s viable.</p>
<p>This will mean making tough decisions that disadvantage powerful industries, such as mining.</p>
<p>And as Australians head to the polls, we need a government with a big strategic vision to achieve genuine biodiversity conservation. This requires a national plan, rather than considering projects in isolation.</p>
<p>Because if history has taught us anything about environmental problems, it is that they compound over time – to the point they’re very difficult to reverse.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/180882/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Felicity Deane does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A scheme devised by the Morrison government to protect biodiversity and create new income for farmers may fail in its aims.Felicity Deane, Associate Professor, Queensland University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1806832022-04-07T02:24:35Z2022-04-07T02:24:35ZWhat has Morrison’s ‘big stick’ to cut power bills achieved? Nothing, as far we can tell<p>The Morrison government has spent years bringing in a law supposed to ensure electricity retailers pass on lower prices to customers. Yet so far that law appears to have achieved nothing, except add to regulatory red tape.</p>
<p>The so-called “big stick” law, threatening to punish electricity retailers for not passing on wholesale cost reductions, came into effect in June 2020, about 20 months after new Prime Minister Scott Morrison <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/scott-morrison-picks-up-his-big-stick-20181023-h170du">first proposed it</a> and more than three years after he, when treasurer, directed the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission to <a href="https://www.accc.gov.au/regulated-infrastructure/energy/retail-electricity-pricing-inquiry-2017-2018">inquire into the retail power market</a>.</p>
<p>In mid-2018, the competition watchdog reported that consumers weren’t getting the best deal and made 56 recommendations to bring down prices. </p>
<p>But none of those 56 recommendations involved the “big stick” retail pricing law Morrison promised <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/scott-morrison-picks-up-his-big-stick-20181023-h170du">in October 2018</a>. That law would give the federal government the power to break up any electricity retailer failing to make “reasonable adjustments” to its prices in response to “sustained” and “substantial” fall in wholesale prices.</p>
<p>This level of market intervention by a Coalition government was unprecedented and considered by the industry and other experts to be a significant over-reach (as expressed in submissions to the <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Economics/TLABEnergyMarket2019/Submissions">Senate committe inquiry</a> into the proposed bill. Morrison’s plan provoked consternation in the industry, as well as revolt in the government’s own backbench. </p>
<p>There was a failed attempt in 2019 to get the legislation through parliament, before a watered-down version of the bill – the Treasury Laws Amendment (Prohibiting Energy Market Misconduct) Act 2019 – was passed in <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Bills_Legislation/Bills_Search_Results/Result?bId=r6420">November 2019</a>. This limited punishment to public warning notices (naming and shaming) and fines of up to A$126,000.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/newsflash-the-government-doesnt-need-to-break-up-power-companies-in-order-to-tame-prices-the-accc-says-so-108333">Newsflash. The government doesn't need to break up power companies in order to tame prices. The ACCC says so</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>So what has the retail pricing law achieved? </p>
<p>Almost two years since it came into effect, there’s no evidence – from the competition watchdog or any other body – that all this effort has achieved anything. </p>
<p>In fact, there’s no evidence there was ever a problem to solve, and that the “big stick” law was “the only way to tame power prices”, as federal energy minister Angus Taylor <a href="https://www.minister.industry.gov.au/ministers/taylor/opinion_piece/why-big-stick-only-way-tame-power-prices">declared in 2019</a>.</p>
<h2>Was there a problem to fix?</h2>
<p>As treasurer, Morrison had directed the competition watchdog to investigate retail electricity pricing in response to electricity prices almost <a href="https://www.accc.gov.au/media-release/accc-given-powers-to-investigate-and-report-on-retail-electricity-prices">doubling in a decade</a>.</p>
<p>The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission’s inquiry report, <a href="https://www.accc.gov.au/regulated-infrastructure/energy/retail-electricity-pricing-inquiry-2017-2018/final-report">published in July 2018</a>, did conclude there was “a serious electricity affordability problem for consumers and businesses”. </p>
<p>Among the “many causes” it identified were customers being made to pay unnecessary costs (for instance, to help pay for past over-investment in state-owned electricity lines and poles) and the lack of competition in the wholesale markets.</p>
<p>What it didn’t identify as a problem was retailers failing to pass on falling wholesale prices. Consequently its report made no recommendation about this.</p>
<h2>There’s just no evidence</h2>
<p>At the Victoria Energy Policy Centre we’ve sought to verify if retailers were failing to pass through falling wholesale prices.</p>
<p>Our finding, based on analysing almost 19,000 households in Victoria and the hundreds of different retail prices advertised each month from 2019 to 2021, are inconclusive. </p>
<p>The difficulty is that energy pricing – both wholesale and retail – is hugely complicated. The best we could do was test if an estimate of the wholesale costs an “average” retailer might pay was being passed through to a few of the prices on offer to our sample of customers. We used that same test with different classes of retailers (small, medium and large). </p>
<p>Regulators are just as bedevilled by this problem in trying to monitor compliance with the “big stick” law.</p>
<h2>Consumer choice is the key</h2>
<p>So while we can’t say conclusively the evidence shows there was a problem, the lack of evidence is enough to question if there was any real need for the “big stick” law in the first place.</p>
<p>On the other side of the ledger, the industry and others have argued the law has increased compliance costs. The government’s own estimate (contained in the <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Economics/TLABEnergyMarket2019/Report">Senate committee inquiry report</a>) was each retailer would have to spend an extra $290,000 a year over ten years. This isn’t a significant figure in the greater scheme of things but it is still a cost being passed on to customers.</p>
<p>The wording of the legislation is clumsy and confused. There’s no clear definition, for example, of what constitutes a “sustained” and “substantial” fall in wholesale prices, or what a “reasonable adjustment” in retail prices is. This makes virtually impossible for any regulator to enforce it.</p>
<p>A better solution to lower household power bills would be to encourage more people to regularly compare and switch to cheaper retailers. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/you-cant-trust-the-price-comparison-market-as-iselects-8-5-million-fine-shows-147840">You can't trust the price-comparison market, as iSelect's $8.5 million fine shows</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Electricity retailers do compete fiercely for new customers looking for better prices, particularly smaller and lesser known retailers. They advertise new prices and plans almost every day – not because there is a big stick, but because lower prices are the best way to fight for your business. </p>
<p>Yet there are so many different types of retail electricity retailers, prices, discounts and incentives on offer that finding the best price is often more complex than you expect. </p>
<p>Making price comparison easier is the area where government can most make a difference.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/180683/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kelly Burns does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There’s no evidence the Australian government’s so-called ‘Big Stick" power pricing law have achieved anything, or were ever needed.Kelly Burns, Senior Research Fellow, Victoria UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1803302022-04-04T19:58:59Z2022-04-04T19:58:59ZWhat will the fuel excise cut save you? Not as much as the Treasurer says<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455422/original/file-20220331-15-z1cjp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C323%2C3988%2C2017&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As an appeal to middle Australia, to the voters politicians routinely describe as working families or battlers, the Morrison government’s centrepiece <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/business">budget move</a> to halve the fuel excise for six months has obvious attractions. </p>
<p>“A family with two cars who fill up once a week could save around $30 a week or around $700 over the next six months,” declared Treasurer Josh Frydenberg <a href="https://joshfrydenberg.com.au/latest-news/budget-2022-2023/">on budget night</a>, a point he’s repeated <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/7.30/interview:-josh-frydenberg/13818088">many times since</a>.</p>
<p>But our calculations show most households, particularly those on lower incomes, won’t gain anything near the amount touted by Frydenberg. </p>
<p>At a cost of about $3 billion, cutting 22 cents in tax from every litre of petrol for six months will disproportionately help wealthy households. The economic gain is doubtful. Depending on what happens with the global oil prices, it may even contribute to inflationary pressures. </p>
<h2>Who benefits most?</h2>
<p>We’ve calculated the effects of the fuel excise cut on household budgets using a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X21002821?casa_token=O5pMXVHUTrEAAAAA:nfXYPrMk5dsjNr9upzcJEuP4zCIJYSB38NCqP_lB1yYhFtgchigDp0z2vBWmnNf_RlJ-0j9E3YbK">computer model</a> developed by the <a href="https://www.governanceinstitute.edu.au/centres/national-centre-for-social-and-economic-modelling-natsem">National Centre For Social And Economic Modelling</a>.</p>
<p>Our results show the six-month cut to the fuel excise will save the average household in inner-urban areas of Sydney and Melbourne about $132. The average households in outer suburbs will save about $242. Those in the outer suburbs of smaller cities will save less as they need to drive shorter distances. The average household in rural and remote areas will save $194.</p>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456031/original/file-20220404-11-6400c7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456031/original/file-20220404-11-6400c7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=662&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456031/original/file-20220404-11-6400c7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=662&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456031/original/file-20220404-11-6400c7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=662&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456031/original/file-20220404-11-6400c7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=832&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456031/original/file-20220404-11-6400c7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=832&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456031/original/file-20220404-11-6400c7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=832&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided/The Conversation</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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</figure>
<hr>
<p>These amounts reflect average outcomes across all households, including those with just one vehicle, or no vehicle. </p>
<p>It’s possible some two-car households will save the $700 cited by Frydenberg, but not many. That would require a household spending well over $10,000 a year on petrol, buying about 150 litres a week.</p>
<p>The budget papers themselves say the cut will “deliver an average benefit of around $300 to households with at least one vehicle”. </p>
<h2>Why economists oppose the cut</h2>
<p>In The Conversation’s pre-budget survey of 46 leading economists selected by the Economic Society of Australia, not one thought cutting the fuel excise a good idea. About a third rated it among the worst possible policies. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cut-emissions-not-petrol-tax-what-economists-want-from-the-budget-179837">Cut emissions, not petrol tax. What economists want from the budget</a>
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</p>
<hr>
<p>Their reasons are the uncertain economic benefit and inconsistency with important long-term policy goals to reduce dependence on oil-based imports, lower greenhouse gas emissions and cut government debt.</p>
<p>Frydenberg has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/mar/29/australia-federal-budget-2022-cost-of-living-petrol-fuel-excise-income-tax-parental-leave-one-off-payments-temporary-cuts">promoted</a> the cut as anti-inflationary, reducing consumer prices by 0.25 percentage points in the June quarter. But prices will simply rise by the same amount in the December quarter.</p>
<p>Global fuel prices may fall long before the end of six months. Last week <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/4/1/oil-eases-as-nations-agree-to-release-reserves">benchmark oil prices fell 13%</a> on news the US will release more from <a href="https://theconversation.com/biden-bets-a-million-barrels-a-day-will-drive-down-soaring-gas-prices-what-you-need-to-know-about-the-strategic-petroleum-reserve-180461">its strategic reserves</a> as well as a truce in the long-running civil war in Yemen. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="The United States will be releasing a million barrels of crude oil every day for the next six months from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456014/original/file-20220404-17-8qr2e3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456014/original/file-20220404-17-8qr2e3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456014/original/file-20220404-17-8qr2e3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456014/original/file-20220404-17-8qr2e3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456014/original/file-20220404-17-8qr2e3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456014/original/file-20220404-17-8qr2e3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456014/original/file-20220404-17-8qr2e3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The United States will be releasing a million barrels of crude oil every day for the next six months from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Eli Hartman/Odessa American/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If oil prices drop the government will be adding billions of dollars to the deficit for no real economic gain. It could even be adding to underlying inflationary pressures by increasing household spending, pushing <a href="https://www.afr.com/markets/debt-markets/economists-divided-on-rba-budget-pressure-20220330-p5a9gg">the Reserve Bank to increase interest rates</a> sooner or by more.</p>
<p>Furthermore, while the fuel excise cut is legislated to be in place just six months, history shows governments find it hard to reverse cuts once implemented. In 2001, for example, the government of John Howard was panicked by poor opinion polls to suspend indexation of the petrol excise when prices reached $1 a litre. Indexation was not restored for 14 years, at a cost of <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/P164-Get-regular-excise-fuel-tax-FINAL.1.pdf">more than $40 billion</a> in forgone tax revenue.</p>
<h2>Well distributed?</h2>
<p>Economists prefer targeted measures, and the problem with cutting the fuel excise is that lot of the benefit will go to sustaining the driving habits of wealthier households.</p>
<p>On average those in the most affluent 40% of households drive about <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X21002821?casa_token=O5pMXVHUTrEAAAAA:nfXYPrMk5dsjNr9upzcJEuP4zCIJYSB38NCqP_lB1yYhFtgchigDp0z2vBWmnNf_RlJ-0j9E3YbK">50% more kilometres</a> than those in the poorest 40%.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/5-maps-that-show-why-free-public-transport-benefits-the-affluent-most-179847">5 maps that show why free public transport benefits the affluent most</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Wealthier households are more likely to have second or third cars, and to have larger cars – such as SUVs – that use more petrol. They also have the money for leisure pursuits such as weekend getaways. </p>
<p>A better approach would be target help to businesses that must buy fuel and to those on low incomes, such as through a cash bonus, leaving it to them to decide if they want to spend on petrol or other things.</p>
<p>This would also help those without a car, those who do not drive much and those with electric vehicles, who all face cost pressures as petrol prices feed into prices at the supermarket.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/180330/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Hawkins is a former Treasury officer.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Yogi Vidyattama does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Josh Frydenberg says halving the fuel excise will save a family with two cars $700. Our calculations show for most households it will be less.John Hawkins, Senior Lecturer, Canberra School of Politics, Economics and Society and NATSEM, University of CanberraYogi Vidyattama, Associate Professor, National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1801232022-03-29T09:08:38Z2022-03-29T09:08:38ZJosh Frydenberg’s budget is an extraordinary turnaround – but leaves a $40 billion problem<p>It’s often said in business circles that good companies manage their balance sheet, and bad companies manage their P&L (profit and loss account). That same aphorism applies to governments.</p>
<p>And by that standard, Josh Frydenberg’s fourth budget is a triumph. Net debt is forecast to peak at 33.1% of GDP in 2024-25, compared to 40.9% in last year’s budget. Net interest payments stay below 1% of GDP—a better result than every year from 1984 to 2000.</p>
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<p>This is an extraordinary turnaround, and much of it comes in the year to the end of June this year. Rather than net debt of A$729 billion by June 2022 (as forecast in last year’s budget), it is expected to be $632 billion. This reflects the stronger economy.</p>
<p>Unemployment is lower so welfare payments are, too. High commodity prices have helped the budget bottom line, but so too have the tax receipts from increased employment and consumer spending.</p>
<hr>
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<p>At the start of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, the government outlined a clear fiscal strategy: spend big to support the economy, and shrink away the debt involved through higher economic growth.</p>
<p>It worked. Australian GDP is 3.4% higher than it was pre-pandemic. Only the United States, at 3.2%, is close to that performance among the world’s seven largest economies. France is up just 0.9%, Canada 0.1%, while Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom and Italy have all shrunk.</p>
<p>Amid this good news is a lingering concern. By 2025-26, the budget deficit is still estimated to be 1.6% of GDP. That’s a $43.1 billion gap between government revenues and expenses. </p>
<hr>
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<p>It is a reminder that while two governments — one Liberal and one Labor — have steered the nation through the global financial crisis and the coronavirus pandemic, they have not repaired our structural deficit.</p>
<p>The next government — whichever party that is — faces a difficult task. It needs to close that $40 billion structural gap without a turn to austerity that would damage the economic growth engine that’s put us in this enviable position. </p>
<p>It’s something of a high-wire act. And it is the litmus test of good economic management.</p>
<h2>Some big spending</h2>
<p>It’s not hard to see why. Defence spending will grow from $35.8 billion this year to $44.5 billion by 2025-26. Given the global security outlook, it could easily go higher. </p>
<p>And spending on the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) will grow from $30.8 billion this year to $46.1 billion over the same time frame. </p>
<p>That’s growth of 10.6% per annum. In fact, by 2033 the NDIS
is forecast to represent more than $70 billion in government spending.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/454991/original/file-20220329-28-wdtro5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/454991/original/file-20220329-28-wdtro5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/454991/original/file-20220329-28-wdtro5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=313&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454991/original/file-20220329-28-wdtro5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=313&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454991/original/file-20220329-28-wdtro5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=313&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454991/original/file-20220329-28-wdtro5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454991/original/file-20220329-28-wdtro5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454991/original/file-20220329-28-wdtro5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://budget.gov.au/2022-23/content/essentials.htm">Commonwealth budget papers</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>That spending is life changing for half a million Australians. But those figures tell us such spending is only sustainable with a strong economy. </p>
<p>If unemployment doesn’t stay low, and economic growth comparatively high, then spending growth in areas like the NDIS and defence will become unsustainable.</p>
<h2>The fuel excise holiday</h2>
<p>One hotly anticipated measure in the budget is a 50% cut in the fuel excise from 44.2 cents to 22.1 per litre, for six months. Let’s be clear: this is great politics. The treasurer said in his
speech:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Whether you’re dropping the kids at school, driving to and from work or visiting family and friends, it will cost less”.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This is a beautiful rendition of the time-honoured political tradition of feeling the voters’ pain.</p>
<p>In one way this makes perfect economic sense, too. Why should households bear the risk of petrol prices bouncing around based on global conflict and decisions by the OPEC cartel? </p>
<p>As the Australian Competition Consumer Commission has demonstrated, prices at the pump basically move one-for-one with the Singapore price of the Mogas 95 unleaded petrol sold to Australia.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/454995/original/file-20220329-21-9v6jpt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/454995/original/file-20220329-21-9v6jpt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/454995/original/file-20220329-21-9v6jpt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454995/original/file-20220329-21-9v6jpt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454995/original/file-20220329-21-9v6jpt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454995/original/file-20220329-21-9v6jpt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454995/original/file-20220329-21-9v6jpt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454995/original/file-20220329-21-9v6jpt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.accc.gov.au/system/files/Report%20on%20the%20Australian%20petroleum%20market%20-%20December%20quarter%202021.pdf">Australian Competition and Consumer Commission</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>By setting the fuel excise lower when oil prices and high, and higher when oil prices are low, the government is acting like a big social insurance company. That’s part of their job (see Medicare, NDIS, unemployment benefits).</p>
<p>But there’s a wrinkle to this. According to figures from the Bureau of Statistics’ Household Expenditure Survey, the bottom fifth of households by income spend $27 a week or 3.5% of their income on petrol. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/budget-2022-frydenberg-has-spent-big-but-on-the-whole-responsibly-180122">Budget 2022: Frydenberg has spent big – but on the whole, responsibly</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>By contrast, the top fifth of households spend $42 a week or 1.8% of their income on petrol. So, a per litre cut in petrol benefits higher-income
households more in dollar terms. It also doesn’t discourage people from driving less. </p>
<p>It would be more progressive (and better for the environment) to just give all households a flat rebate.</p>
<h2>A good plan, well executed</h2>
<p>The tone at the budget press conference this year was in striking contrast to that at the announcement of the pandemic fiscal strategy in early 2020. </p>
<p>Back then there were sharp questions about fiscal irresponsibility, leading then-Finance Minister Matthias Cormann to exclaim: “What would you have us do?”</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-if-money-talks-the-government-has-megaphone-out-180121">View from The Hill: if money talks, the government has megaphone out</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>This time, there were a series of relatively minor questions about whether Victoria was getting enough GST revenue or if medical students who studied in regional Australia would stay there.</p>
<p>That is the consequence of a government that jettisoned decades of political branding in March 2022, laid out a compelling plan to get Australia through the pandemic, and delivered on it.</p>
<hr>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-674" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/674/fb049617b004a4a226deec3198b6ebdd2ea039f9/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-cost-of-living-budget-cuts-spends-and-everything-you-need-to-know-at-a-glance-180124">A cost-of-living budget: cuts, spends, and everything you need to know at a glance</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/180123/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Holden is President of the Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia.</span></em></p>The 2022-23 budget is the result of a good plan, well executed. But whichever party next takes government must close the deficit gap – without resorting to austerity.Richard Holden, Professor of Economics, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1801222022-03-29T08:57:05Z2022-03-29T08:57:05ZBudget 2022: Frydenberg has spent big – but on the whole, responsibly<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/454720/original/file-20220328-21-1c9fkue.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C5%2C3850%2C1988&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wes Mountain/The Conversation</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>So good, and so unexpected, has been Australia’s economic improvement over the past three months, it has wiped one-third of the projected 2022-23 budget deficit.
Or it would have, had the government not decided to give away almost half (45%) the windfall.</p>
<p>That’s one way of looking at the difference between the projections in the December budget update and those presented three months later in Tuesday’s March budget.
In December, the deficit for the coming financial year was to be A$98.9 billion. </p>
<p>Three months later, the budget papers say it would have been $38 billion lower, were it not for an extra $17.2 billion of spending and tax measures taken since the update and in the budget.</p>
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<p>The measures leave the 2022-23 budget deficit at <a href="https://budget.gov.au/2022-23/content/bp1/index.htm">$78 billion</a>, something set to shrink to $43 billion over the following three years, but with no help from savings in this budget. </p>
<p>The budget measures expand the deficit in each of the five years for which the government provides projections, by $30.4 billion in total.</p>
<p>Working the other way, improved economic circumstances shrink the deficit by $114.6 billion.</p>
<p>It’s a convenient way to examine the projections, but it’s unfair. Most of the improvement due to economic circumstances is the government’s own work.</p>
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<p>An astounding $98.5 billion of the $114.6 billion improvement is because Australia’s extraordinary and unexpected success in driving unemployment down to a near 50-year low, with a further improvement forecast in the budget.</p>
<p>It is helping the budget in two ways. The government is spending much less than it expected on JobSeeker and Youth Allowance, and taking in more than expected in income tax from people it hadn’t expected to be in work.</p>
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<p>It’s what former finance minister Mathias Cormann insisted would happen in 2020 when the first COVID budget threw the switch to massive spending. </p>
<p>By throwing everything it could at keeping people in work through programs such as JobKeeper, the government would “grow the economy” and grow tax revenue to push down the resulting government debt as a proportion of GDP.</p>
<p>The budget papers show it happening.</p>
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<p>A year ago, net debt was expected to peak at 40.9% of GDP in mid-2025 before sliding as the economy grew. Now it is expected to peak earlier at 33.1% of GDP. </p>
<p>Net interest payments are expected to peak at a very small 0.9% of GDP in 2025-26 before slipping to 0.8% of GDP.</p>
<p>And there are reasons to think things will turn out better than forecast. </p>
<p>Unemployment, now down to 4%, is expected to fall only a little further to 3.75% within months and then stay there before climbing back to 4% in 2026. </p>
<p>But that’s because treasury has assumed unemployment can’t stay as low as 3.75% without sparking inflation – an assumption it concedes might be wrong, noting Australia has “limited recent experience” of an unemployment rate lower than 5%.</p>
<h2>Forecasts conservative</h2>
<p>Treasury has assumed the iron ore price, at present US$134 a tonne, falls back to US$55 in coming months. It has assumed the coking coal price falls from US$512 a tonne to US$130, the thermal coal price from US$320 a tonne to US$60 and the oil price from US$114 a barrel to US$100. Every one of these assumptions looks conservative.</p>
<p>Frydenberg admitted as much in the budget press conference, saying if commodity prices merely stay put for just the next six months instead of falling as assumed, the budget will be $30 billion better off.</p>
<p>About the only forecast that doesn’t look conservative is the one for wages growth. </p>
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<p>At present an embarrassingly low 2.3%, the budget forecasts a jump in annual wages growth to 2.75% within months followed by a jump to 3.25% in 2023 and to 3.5% by June 2025. </p>
<p>The forecasts conveniently put wages growth back above forecast inflation of 3% in 2022-23, leaving Australians with only one more year in which the buying power of wages goes backwards.</p>
<p>In the budget fine print (<a href="https://budget.gov.au/2022-23/content/bp1/download/bp1_bs-2.pdf">page 60 of Statement 1</a>) treasury concedes it’s none too sure about its forecast of wages growth we haven’t seen in a decade. It shares an alternative forecast that uses different assumptions to produce annual wages growth no higher than 2.5% – below inflation for a further two years.</p>
<h2>Support measures (mostly) well designed</h2>
<p>The cost-of-living measures are well-designed (with the exception of the six-month cut in petrol excise that will benefit most the high earners who typically spend the most on petrol). The one-off payment of $250 to Australians on benefits will go to those who do need it. </p>
<p>And the one-year boost of $420 to the low- and middle-income tax offset (bringing it to as much as $1,500) will only be available to Australians earning less than $126,000. They will get it after they put in their tax return from July – when they are most likely to need it – and then no more. It isn’t being continued.</p>
<p>Frydenberg has spent big in 2022 – but on the whole, responsibly. The budget forecasts and the unemployment numbers show his COVID support spending in 2020 and 2021 has paid dividends. They are forecasts for the true believers.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/josh-frydenbergs-budget-is-an-extraordinary-turnaround-but-leaves-a-40-billion-problem-180123">Josh Frydenberg’s budget is an extraordinary turnaround – but leaves a $40 billion problem</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/180122/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Martin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The budget forecasts and unemployment numbers show Josh Frydenberg’s COVID support spending has paid dividends.Peter Martin, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1766782022-03-14T18:58:45Z2022-03-14T18:58:45ZTax cuts? COVID management? On the search for the Morrison government’s legacy (so far)<p>It is premature to be discussing the legacy of the Morrison government. While it is well behind in the polls, there is still an election to be fought. Most commentators are understandably wary of prediction, not only because many got it wrong last time round, but because we are living in uncertain times.</p>
<p>But there is another reason to be wary of pronouncing on legacies. What is seen to matter changes with the passage of time. The failures can shrink in collective memory over the years, while achievements that seemed modest during government loom larger as circumstances change.</p>
<p>When Robert Menzies retired in January 1966, everyone seemed to be able to agree it was an end of an era, but they struggled to discern a likely legacy. The Australian, then in its infancy, asked: “Has anything happened to Australia in the last 16 years of which we can say: ‘This was Menzies’?”. It offered education as one possibility, but was not otherwise able to find much: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>There was his Midas touch, his fantastic run of success since 1949, his unerring political touch, his judgement of the right moment, his talent for survival, his overpowering domination of politics.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Menzies’ greatest achievement seemed to lie in his political nous rather than his policy achievement.</p>
<p>The reputations of other governments have moved this way and that. The Whitlam government’s reputation was mediocre in the late 1970s and 1980s; its failures in economic management seemed a permanent black mark against it. By the time Whitlam died in 2014, the legacy seemed exceptional – from health and education through Aboriginal and women’s rights, environment and heritage, family law, consumer affairs and much else – partly because the achievements of recent times were so meagre.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/gough-whitlams-life-and-legacy-experts-respond-33228">Gough Whitlam's life and legacy: experts respond</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The Hawke and Keating legacy looked better by the early 2000s, as Australia enjoyed some of the dividends of their reforms, than it had in the era of corporate collapse and recession of the early 1990s. </p>
<p>Gun laws loom much larger today as a Howard legacy than they did in 2007, in the wake of continuing carnage in the United States. </p>
<p>Much of <a href="https://theconversation.com/secrets-and-scandals-where-malcolm-turnbulls-memoir-fits-in-the-rich-history-of-prime-ministerial-books-136730">Malcolm Turnbull’s memoir</a> was given over to setting out a prime ministerial legacy. He even invited readers to include marriage equality: an issue on which others had worked for a generation to reshape public opinion in the face of political class obstruction.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451257/original/file-20220310-17-99dput.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451257/original/file-20220310-17-99dput.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451257/original/file-20220310-17-99dput.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451257/original/file-20220310-17-99dput.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451257/original/file-20220310-17-99dput.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451257/original/file-20220310-17-99dput.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451257/original/file-20220310-17-99dput.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Malcolm Turnbull is keen to claim marriage equality as a legacy of his prime ministership: others would disagree.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lukas Coch/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>What of Morrison? He went to the 2019 election promising little. Unsurprisingly, when returned to office, the parliament was not flooded with initiatives. There were tax breaks. This is a legacy of sorts: a more regressive income tax and budget deficits further into the future than anyone can see.</p>
<p>On the handful of other matters the government did promise to attend to, we are still waiting. It has failed to establish an anti-corruption commission, with its draft legislation being treated with justified contempt by anyone interested in improving government integrity. </p>
<p>It has also failed to deliver on religious freedom. This failure was Turnbull’s legacy, too, for he granted the defeated side in the same-sex marriage postal survey of 2017 a sop in the form of an inquiry which led, after years of toing and froing, to the recent humiliation of the Morrison government by <a href="https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-trent-zimmerman-has-no-regrets-on-religious-discrimination-rebellion-177145">members of his own backbench</a>.</p>
<p>Something like this should have been predictable from the outset. The existing exemptions in the Sex Discrimination Act, which are in large part the result of church lobbying in 1983 and 1984, are wide. If Christian conservatives were more pragmatic and less inclined to culture wars, they would have left them alone.</p>
<p>Of course, the Morrison government was quickly overtaken by what British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan called “events, dear boy, events”. There were the Black Summer bushfires. They have formed a difficult legacy for Morrison. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451260/original/file-20220310-15-19a27fg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451260/original/file-20220310-15-19a27fg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451260/original/file-20220310-15-19a27fg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451260/original/file-20220310-15-19a27fg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451260/original/file-20220310-15-19a27fg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451260/original/file-20220310-15-19a27fg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451260/original/file-20220310-15-19a27fg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Scott Morrison’s response to the Black Saturday fires has become a difficult legacy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Steven Saphore/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If we work backwards from Scott and Jenny Morrison’s recent <a href="https://theconversation.com/too-much-sugar-not-enough-spice-60-minutes-morrison-interview-was-not-journalism-it-was-confected-pap-177058">appearance on 60 Minutes</a>, it seems likely the Liberal Party’s research is revealing Morrison’s leadership failure and trip to Hawaii remain imprinted on the public imagination.</p>
<p>Then there is COVID-19. Morrison will claim a legacy in which fewer Australians died than in most other places and the government’s support managed to prevent economic catastrophe. The government’s opponents will point to failures in the vaccine procurement and rollout, in aged-care policy and in supplying testing kits. </p>
<p>Labor will also point to the precarious state of an economy in which inflation and debt are rising, and to the need for stronger action on climate change and renewable energy than Morrison has so far been willing to take.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-good-leaders-need-to-hold-the-hose-how-history-might-read-morrisons-coronavirus-leadership-137785">Why good leaders need to hold the hose: how history might read Morrison's coronavirus leadership</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The government will place foreign relations and defence in the foreground. The Australian’s Paul Kelly recently produced a <a href="https://www.penguin.com.au/books/morrisons-mission-a-lowy-institute-paper-penguin-special-9780143778042">Lowy Institute Paper</a>, Morrison’s Mission, in which he manages to discern so much coherence in the government’s foreign policy, with its growing belligerence toward China and cloying relationship to the United States, that it deserves to be called “The Morrison Doctrine”. </p>
<p>His colleague Greg Sheridan is <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/defence-policy-on-the-nevernever/news-story/4702c8b3f2843e90f6f317d4e40d3f2f">more insistent</a> on the government’s failure to attend to Australia’s defence capabilities in a world unlikely to wait around for Australia to acquire a nuclear submarine fleet several decades into the future.</p>
<p>National security is predictably alluring for Morrison. It plays to a traditional Coalition strength. It has formed the basis for some <a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-morrison-has-sown-the-seeds-for-a-scare-campaign-and-albanese-doesnt-know-whether-theyll-grow-177368">outrageous attacks on Labor</a> and its leader, Anthony Albanese, as Chinese Communist Party favourites. </p>
<p>It appeals to the grandiosity from which almost no prime minister is immune and which Morrison has in spades. And it is consistent with his reduction of politics to a form of public relations, one less preoccupied with implementation and achievement than the theatre of the announcement. Even Kelly, broadly favourable to Morrison’s foreign policy direction, says that he “constantly oversells his initiatives”. </p>
<p>But Morrison will be long out of politics before anyone is called to serious account for the decisions being made today.</p>
<p>There is danger in this for Morrison’s government. Few today recall Australia’s security agreement with Indonesia as a Keating legacy. Abrogated by Indonesia during the later Timor crisis, at the time of its signing a few months before the 1996 election it fed into an image of Keating as too concerned with “the big picture” at the expense of the everyday concerns of mainstream Australians. This became an idea that John Howard deployed with devastating effect. </p>
<p>Morrison may well find that voters who – to take just another example of failure – are unimpressed with their leaders’ response when their homes are inundated by flood waters have a strictly limited interest in any boats other than those being sent to help them.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/176678/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Frank Bongiorno does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There is still an election to be fought, of course, but looking back from today it is not clear what the government’s legacy is – or might become.Frank Bongiorno, Professor of History, ANU College of Arts and Social Sciences, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1763702022-02-08T19:10:18Z2022-02-08T19:10:18ZMorrison government spends $50 million saving koalas while taking away their homes<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444985/original/file-20220208-22-2po1vl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=43%2C4%2C3167%2C2132&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Zoos Victoria</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Federal Environment Minister Sussan Ley is <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/conservation/koala-habitat-still-shrinking-as-experts-call-for-endangered-listing-20220207-p59uda.html">reportedly</a> poised to decide whether some koala populations should be listed as endangered, as new research shows her government continues to approve land clearing in koala habitat.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.acf.org.au/federal-govt-has-approved-clearing-25000ha-koala-habitat-10-yrs">Analysis</a> released by the Australian Conservation Foundation (ACF) on Tuesday found that in the decade since koalas were declared vulnerable to extinction, the federal government had approved the clearing of 25,000 hectares of the species’ habitat. </p>
<p>It follows the Morrison government’s announcement last month of A$50 million to restore koala habitat, monitor populations and research the animals’ health.</p>
<p>But until the problems of habitat loss and land clearing are addressed, national koala populations will continue to dwindle. And as <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/WR/pdf/WR21034">our recent research</a> shows, much of the new funding is inadequate at the scale required.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="koala sits on street sign" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444951/original/file-20220208-27-d0j6o5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444951/original/file-20220208-27-d0j6o5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444951/original/file-20220208-27-d0j6o5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444951/original/file-20220208-27-d0j6o5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444951/original/file-20220208-27-d0j6o5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444951/original/file-20220208-27-d0j6o5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444951/original/file-20220208-27-d0j6o5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Until habitat loss is addressed, koala populations will continue to dwindle.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Australian Koala Foundation</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Koala cash-splash</h2>
<p>The Threatened Species Scientific Committee, which advises the federal government, has recommended the status of koalas in Queensland, New South Wales and the ACT be upgraded from vulnerable to endangered. </p>
<p>Ley is <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/conservation/koala-habitat-still-shrinking-as-experts-call-for-endangered-listing-20220207-p59uda.html">expected to</a> respond to the recommendation by next month. Listing the koala as endangered would be a serious escalation in its threat status. </p>
<p>The federal government’s recent $50 million of koala funding supports <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/record-50-million-koalas">various initiatives</a>. They include:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>$20 million for large habitat and health protection projects delivered by Indigenous groups, industry, state and territory governments and non-government organisations</p></li>
<li><p>$10 million for community-led habitat restoration, health and care facilities, and citizen science projects </p></li>
<li><p>$10 million to extend the National Koala Monitoring Program </p></li>
<li><p>$2 million to fund applied research in koala health </p></li>
<li><p>$1 million to fund vet staff and koala care, treatment and triage. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>These are important investments. But we see two major issues with the federal government’s approach.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="woman stands next to koala" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444964/original/file-20220208-14-jpnm8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444964/original/file-20220208-14-jpnm8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444964/original/file-20220208-14-jpnm8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444964/original/file-20220208-14-jpnm8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444964/original/file-20220208-14-jpnm8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444964/original/file-20220208-14-jpnm8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444964/original/file-20220208-14-jpnm8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Federal Environment Minister Sussan Ley is expected to decide next month whether to list koalas as endangered.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Habitat loss: the biggest problem</h2>
<p>Until koala habitat is protected, conservation efforts – largely funded by the taxpayer – will continue to be undermined. </p>
<p>Other recent federal koala funding includes <a href="https://www.awe.gov.au/environment/biodiversity/bushfire-recovery/funding-support/koala-conservation">$24 million</a> after the Black Summer bushfires.</p>
<p>The NSW government wants to double the number of koalas in that state by 2050. To that end, it pledged <a href="https://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/news/budget-bonanza-for-the-states-biodiversity">$193 million</a> over five years in the current budget. This followed the <a href="https://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/research-and-publications/publications-search/nsw-koala-strategy">$44.7 million</a> of koala funding it announced in 2018.</p>
<p>All this comes on top of the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-02/port-macquarie-koala-hospital-announces-breeding-program/12941370">millions of dollars</a> in international and national community donations for koala conservation efforts after the Black Summer bushfires. </p>
<p>But the primary driver of koala population decline is the clearing of its habitat. No amount of money can save koalas unless we tackle this.</p>
<p>The ACF research released on Tuesday confirmed the extent of the problem. The federal government approved the clearing of 25,000 hectares of koala habitat in the past decade, comprising 63 projects.</p>
<p>Most were mining projects, followed by land transport and housing developments.</p>
<p>Two recent federal decisions demonstrate this active undermining of koala conservation efforts:</p>
<ul>
<li><p><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-13/koala-habitat-cleared-against-department-of-environment-rules/11392454">approval</a> to clear more than 75 hectares of critical koala habitat for housing west of Brisbane, reportedly in breach of the government’s own policy</p></li>
<li><p>approval of the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/triplej/programs/hack/koala-habitat-to-be-cleared-as-brandy-hill-quarry-approved/12819180">Brandy Hill Quarry</a>, which would clear 52 hectares of koala habitat to produce gravel and stone.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>These projects were also approved by respective state governments, and were enabled by <a href="https://theconversation.com/environment-minister-sussan-ley-faces-a-critical-test-will-she-let-a-mine-destroy-koala-breeding-grounds-145839">weak</a> koala protections under both national and state environment laws.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/stopping-koala-extinction-is-agonisingly-simple-but-heres-why-im-not-optimistic-141696">Stopping koala extinction is agonisingly simple. But here's why I'm not optimistic</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="two koalas sit on pile of logs" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444965/original/file-20220208-24-81x5pj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444965/original/file-20220208-24-81x5pj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444965/original/file-20220208-24-81x5pj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444965/original/file-20220208-24-81x5pj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444965/original/file-20220208-24-81x5pj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444965/original/file-20220208-24-81x5pj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444965/original/file-20220208-24-81x5pj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">By approving land clearing, government’s undermine koala conservation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">WWF</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Barely scratches the surface</h2>
<p>Second, the federal funding for koala monitoring is inadequate. </p>
<p>We recently <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/WR/pdf/WR21034">modelled the costs</a> of conducting large-scale koala population surveys with methods that <a href="https://theconversation.com/drones-detection-dogs-poo-spotting-whats-the-best-way-to-conduct-australias-great-koala-count-150634">could be incorporated</a> into the National Koala Monitoring Program. </p>
<p>We examined the cost of surveying 1.9 million hectares of fire-affected places in NSW considered “high and very high suitability” koala habitat.</p>
<p>We put the price tag at $9.5 million to $11.5 million for on-ground techniques, or about $7 million for <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2021-01-10/black-summer-fires-koalas-drones-monitoring-population/13035820">efficient and cost-effective drone thermal imaging</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/let-there-be-no-doubt-blame-for-our-failing-environment-laws-lies-squarely-at-the-feet-of-government-141482">Let there be no doubt: blame for our failing environment laws lies squarely at the feet of government</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>That’s just for one survey round. Even if the 1.9 million hectares was fairly distributed to key sampling areas, which is likely, the surveys must still be repeated at regular intervals to monitor koala populations over time.</p>
<p>The latest funding announcement for the National Koala Monitoring Program brings the total to $12 million since the initiative was announced in 2020. Given the vast extent of the koala’s range across five states and territories, this monitoring funding barely scratches the surface.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/drones-detection-dogs-poo-spotting-whats-the-best-way-to-conduct-australias-great-koala-count-150634">Drones, detection dogs, poo spotting: what’s the best way to conduct Australia’s Great Koala Count?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="koala licks tree" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444958/original/file-20220208-19-cnafe2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5137%2C3445&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444958/original/file-20220208-19-cnafe2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444958/original/file-20220208-19-cnafe2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444958/original/file-20220208-19-cnafe2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444958/original/file-20220208-19-cnafe2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444958/original/file-20220208-19-cnafe2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444958/original/file-20220208-19-cnafe2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Large-scale koala monitoring programs are expensive.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">University of Sydney</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The federal government must step up</h2>
<p>Koala conservation is largely funded by the taxpayer and koalas receive far <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/43480296_Comparison_of_funding_and_demand_for_the_conservation_of_the_charismatic_Koala_with_those_for_the_critically_endangered_wombat_Lasiorhinus_krefftii">more funding</a> than <a href="https://minister.awe.gov.au/ley/media-releases/australias-100-priority-species?fbclid=IwAR1khxsnj0hnQS86tKAqEZm5kzrbWAH-5PpVD0MKL8NdM9e28vDTFDMctP4">other threatened species</a>.</p>
<p>So it’s only fair to expect this funding to deliver results. To protect the important public and community investment in koalas, the federal government must: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>review current funding levels and provide adequate investment to support all Australia’s wildlife, including koalas</p></li>
<li><p>endorse the expert recommendation to list the koala as endangered in parts of Australia</p></li>
<li><p>finalise the <a href="https://haveyoursay.awe.gov.au/69010/widgets/341615/documents/206476">Draft National Recovery Plan</a> for the koala, which has been pending since 2012</p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://theconversation.com/to-fix-australias-environment-laws-wildlife-experts-call-for-these-4-changes-all-are-crucial-154273">enforce</a> strong protections for koalas and other native wildlife, with independent oversight. The measures should follow the recommendations in Professor Graeme Samuel’s review of federal environment law.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>In this, an election year, the Morrison government has the chance to show Australians it’s committed to saving our threatened wildlife. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/heat-detecting-drones-are-a-cheaper-more-efficient-way-to-find-koalas-140332">Heat-detecting drones are a cheaper, more efficient way to find koalas</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/176370/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lachlan G. Howell is affiliated with Deakin University, the Centre for Integrative Ecology, the University of Newcastle, and FAUNA Research Alliance. Lachlan is funded by the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC. Lachlan is a member of the Australasian Wildlife Management Society. Lachlan would like to acknowledge several co-authors on the research study referenced in this article including John Clulow, Neil R. Jordan, Chad T. Beranek and Adam Roff. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ryan R. Witt receives funding from Taronga Conservation Society Australia, the Mid North Coast Joint Organisation, WWF-Australia's Regenerate Australia Program, and the Paddy Pallin Foundation administered by the Royal Zoological Society of New South Wales. He is affiliated with the University of Newcastle and FAUNA Research Alliance. Ryan is a member of the Royal Zoological Society of New South Wales, is a scientific associate of Taronga Conservation Society Australia, and is the Australasian board member of the Companion Animals and Non-Domestic Endangered Species Committee of the International Embryo Technology Society.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shelby A. Ryan receives a Vice-Chancellor’s PhD Training Priority Scheme Scholarship from the University of Newcastle. Her PhD project receives funding from Taronga Conservation Society Australia, the Mid North Coast Joint Organisation, WWF-Australia's Regenerate Australia Program, The Margaret Middleton Fund for endangered Australian native vertebrate animals administered by the Australian Academy of Science, and the Paddy Pallin Foundation administered by the Royal Zoological Society of New South Wales. She is affiliated with the University of Newcastle and FAUNA Research Alliance.</span></em></p>It’s only fair to expect results from vast sums of public money spent on koala conservation. But continued land clearing badly undermines the investment.Lachlan G. Howell, Research Fellow | Centre for Integrative Ecology, Deakin UniversityRyan R. Witt, Postdoctoral Researcher and Honorary Lecturer | School of Environmental and Life Sciences, University of NewcastleShelby A. Ryan, PhD Candidate | School of Environmental and Life Sciences, University of NewcastleLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1759242022-02-01T02:16:39Z2022-02-01T02:16:39ZThe $1 billion Great Barrier Reef funding is nonsensical. Australians, and their natural wonder, deserve so much better<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443601/original/file-20220201-21-oo9xbf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C306%2C5000%2C3435&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Tane Sinclair-Taylor</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Today, the federal government is due to <a href="https://whc.unesco.org/en/decisions/7807">report back to UNESCO</a> on its efforts to protect the Great Barrier Reef. The government’s <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/billion-dollar-reef-investment-backs-queensland-communities#:%7E:text=The%20Morrison%20Government%20will%20invest,which%20drive%20the%20Reef%20economy.">announcement</a> last week of A$1 billion of additional funding is welcome, but it will do little to allay UNESCO’s concerns.</p>
<p>Climate change is the <a href="https://elibrary.gbrmpa.gov.au/jspui/handle/11017/3460">number one threat</a> to the Great Barrier Reef. While the new funding is meant to address other threats to the natural wonder and may improve its <a href="https://elibrary.gbrmpa.gov.au/jspui/retrieve/9ecb8651-6205-4fb8-8e65-0b8938cadfcd/GBR-Summit-background-paper-and-workbook.pdf">resilience</a>, failing to address the climate threat is both disappointing and nonsensical. </p>
<p>As the below graph shows, ocean temperatures on the reef in December last year were the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/index.shtml#tabs=Tracker&tracker=timeseries&tQ=graph%3Dsst%26area%3DGBR%26season%3D12%26ave_yr%3D0">warmest on record</a>. With this comes the risk of a fourth <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jan/29/great-barrier-reef-on-verge-of-another-mass-bleaching-after-highest-temperatures-on-record">mass bleaching event</a> this decade. </p>
<p>The Great Barrier Reef <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/30/australia-tries-to-pause-unesco-process-that-can-force-climate-action-to-protect-great-barrier-reef">came close</a> last year to being put on a list of World Heritage “in danger” sites. The funding announcement seems primarily about appeasing UNESCO, with one eye also on the upcoming federal election. But saving the Great Barrier Reef is not about throwing money at it – what matters is how the dollars are spent. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Graph showing ocean temperatures on the reef since 1900" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443609/original/file-20220201-19-1ugueyx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443609/original/file-20220201-19-1ugueyx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443609/original/file-20220201-19-1ugueyx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443609/original/file-20220201-19-1ugueyx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443609/original/file-20220201-19-1ugueyx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443609/original/file-20220201-19-1ugueyx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443609/original/file-20220201-19-1ugueyx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>By the numbers</h2>
<p>The $1 billion package proposed by the government comprises:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>58% to address the land-based causes of water quality issues impacting the World Heritage Area</p></li>
<li><p>26% to reduce crown-of-thorns starfish and prevent illegal fishing</p></li>
<li><p>9% for new scientific technologies</p></li>
<li><p>7% allocated to local communities – including Traditional Owners – for habitat restoration, <a href="https://www.barrierreef.org/news/blog/become-a-citizen-scientist-to-help-the-reef">citizen science</a> and reducing <a href="https://www.gbrmpa.gov.au/our-work/threats-to-the-reef/marine-debris#:%7E:text=Marine%20debris%20is%20a%20major,%2C%20dugongs%2C%20dolphins%20and%20seabirds.&text=More%20than%2080%20per%20cent,increasing%20the%20risk%20of%20impacts.">marine debris</a>. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>The measures to be funded are all important. But they’re nowhere near as important as addressing the root cause of climate change: greenhouse gas emissions. Most of the $1 billion should have been used to help Australia phase out fossil fuels. </p>
<p>What’s more, the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/oct/05/new-coalmine-mangoola-nsw-muswellbrook-approved-australia-environment-minister-sussan-ley">federal</a> and <a href="https://www.qld.gov.au/environment/pollution/management/eis-process/projects/completed/central-qld-coal-project">Queensland</a> governments continue to approve new coal and gas projects. Doing all this, while knowing the grave threat climate change poses to the Great Barrier Reef, demonstrates the incoherence of government policies.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="steam billows from coal stacks" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443603/original/file-20220201-19-fwuqlh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443603/original/file-20220201-19-fwuqlh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443603/original/file-20220201-19-fwuqlh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443603/original/file-20220201-19-fwuqlh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443603/original/file-20220201-19-fwuqlh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443603/original/file-20220201-19-fwuqlh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443603/original/file-20220201-19-fwuqlh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The best way for the federal government to help the Great Barrier Reef is to phase out fossil fuels.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Devil in the detail</h2>
<p>When we drill further into the detail, it becomes even more clear the funding package is not as impressive as it may first appear. </p>
<p>The $1 billion funding has been allocated over nine years. This is far beyond the time frame to which any government can sensibly commit, given four-year election cycles. A major funding increase is needed urgently, and certainly within a single term of government.</p>
<p>Also, federal Labor’s <a href="https://anthonyalbanese.com.au/our-policies/great-barrier-reef">funding proposal</a> for the Great Barrier Reef must be increased. </p>
<p>Another concern is the funding allocation for new scientific technologies such as coral seeding, developing heat-resistant corals and cloud brightening. Some of these technologies may have produced positive results at a small scale. But none has <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2019.00727/full">yet proved feasible</a> at the wide scale necessary to make a real difference for the Great Barrier Reef.</p>
<p>Efforts to address <a href="https://www.gbrmpa.gov.au/our-work/threats-to-the-reef/declining-water-quality">water quality</a> are important. After climate change, poor water quality is the most pressing problem facing the reef. It’s largely caused by nutrients, pesticides and sediment runoff from agriculture and coastal development. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/not-declaring-the-great-barrier-reef-as-in-danger-only-postpones-the-inevitable-164867">Not declaring the Great Barrier Reef as 'in danger' only postpones the inevitable</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>But governments have already spent hundreds of millions trying to improve water quality, with <a href="https://www.reefplan.qld.gov.au/tracking-progress/reef-report-card">only limited success</a>. Reducing water pollution requires more effective spending, not just more funds.</p>
<p>This is just one example of how money alone cannot fix all the Great Barrier Reef’s problems. Improving water quality requires the right balance between voluntary industry-led approaches and enforcing the rules. </p>
<p>The Queensland government must greatly increase its <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-11/laws-not-stopping-fertilser-runoff-to-reef/10348718">compliance and enforcement</a> on matters such as fertiliser runoff entering creeks that flow to the reef. While many farmers are doing the right thing, others clearly are not.</p>
<p>And to improve water quality, governments must be prepared to limit clearing and agriculture expansion in reef catchment areas.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="brown plume of pollution in blue waters" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291899/original/file-20190911-190061-19o0fy9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291899/original/file-20190911-190061-19o0fy9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291899/original/file-20190911-190061-19o0fy9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291899/original/file-20190911-190061-19o0fy9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291899/original/file-20190911-190061-19o0fy9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291899/original/file-20190911-190061-19o0fy9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291899/original/file-20190911-190061-19o0fy9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Flood plume extending into the Great Barrier Reef. Improving water quality requires better enforcement of the rules.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Matt Curnock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Learning from our mistakes</h2>
<p>For <a href="https://www.gbrmpa.gov.au/our-work/outlook-report-2019">years</a>, the federal government has known the pressures facing the Great Barrier Reef. But it continues to maintain a “business as usual” attitude in the face of the worsening climate crisis. Governments worldwide must dramatically increase their climate ambitions – and for the Great Barrier Reef, this action should start at home.</p>
<p>As the Murray-Darling Basin experience <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-murray-darling-basin-scandal-economists-have-seen-it-coming-for-decades-119989">shows</a>, throwing funding at an environmental catastrophe <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-its-time-to-talk-about-our-water-emergency-139024">does not fix the problem</a>, especially if the core issue remains unaddressed.</p>
<p>The government must also better allocate funds to achieve effective and timely “adaptive management”. This involves decision-making that can be adjusted as outcomes become better understood. </p>
<p>Such management should include considering both the good and bad outcomes of reef interventions to date – both those controlled by government agencies and those managed by external groups such as the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/may/05/great-barrier-reef-foundation-still-well-short-of-fundraising-target-auditor-general-finds">Great Barrier Reef Foundation</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/is-australia-really-doing-enough-for-the-great-barrier-reef-why-criticisms-of-unescos-in-danger-recommendation-dont-stack-up-163641">Is Australia really doing enough for the Great Barrier Reef? Why criticisms of UNESCO’s 'in danger' recommendation don’t stack up</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="bleached coral" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443631/original/file-20220201-27-uaoog0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443631/original/file-20220201-27-uaoog0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443631/original/file-20220201-27-uaoog0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443631/original/file-20220201-27-uaoog0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443631/original/file-20220201-27-uaoog0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443631/original/file-20220201-27-uaoog0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443631/original/file-20220201-27-uaoog0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Preventing further damage to the Great Barrier Reef means learning lessons from the past.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This latest government funding boost is welcome, but suspiciously timed. Environmental policy and budget allocations should not be about a government’s reputation and firming up its electoral prospects – especially when so much is at stake.</p>
<p>UNESCO is likely to welcome the additional efforts to address water quality. But it has specifically <a href="https://whc.unesco.org/en/soc/4141">urged</a> Australia to take “accelerated action at all possible levels” to address the climate threat. It remains to be seen whether UNESCO will continue to pressure the federal government on that front.</p>
<p>Amid all this, a key question remains. As the the Great Barrier Reef continues to decline, will Australians re-elect a federal government that supports industries harming the environment?</p>
<p>One thing is certain: Australians, and their Great Barrier Reef, deserve so much more.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/5-major-heatwaves-in-30-years-have-turned-the-great-barrier-reef-into-a-bleached-checkerboard-170719">5 major heatwaves in 30 years have turned the Great Barrier Reef into a bleached checkerboard</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/175924/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jon Day previously worked for the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority between 1986 and 2014, and was one of the Directors at GBRMPA between 1998 and 2014. He represented Australia as one of the formal delegates to the World Heritage Committee between 2007-2011.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Scott Heron receives funding from the Australian Research Council and NASA ROSES Ecological Forecasting.</span></em></p>Saving the Great Barrier Reef is not about throwing money at it – what matters is how the dollars are spent.Jon C. Day, PSM, Adjunct Senior Research Fellow, ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook UniversityScott F. Heron, Associate Professor, James Cook UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1750652022-01-31T19:06:41Z2022-01-31T19:06:41ZThings look worse for casual workers than at any time during the pandemic<p>At the national Australia Day ceremony in 2021, Prime Minister Scott Morrison spoke of the contribution by frontline workers during the pandemic. </p>
<p>He <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/australia-day-national-flag-raising-and-citizenship-ceremony">mentioned</a> health workers, the defence forces, the police and farmers, as well as “the truck drivers, the wholesale and the retail workers keeping our supermarket shelves stocked”.</p>
<p>In his <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/remarks-2022-national-citizenship-and-flag-raising-ceremony">2022 Australia Day speech</a> only defence personnel and health workers got a mention – possibly due to the disappearing government support for retail and logistics workers during the Omicron wave.</p>
<p>With Omicron crippling supply chains and businesses being forced to shut due to lack of staff, eligibility rules for the last remaining COVID-related support payment (the <a href="https://www.servicesaustralia.gov.au/pandemic-leave-disaster-payment">Pandemic Leave Disaster Payment</a>) have been tightened, and the payments available cut. </p>
<p>The definition “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-09/critical-workers-blast-nsw-new-close-contact-iso-rules/100746816">close contact</a>” has been weakened and tens of thousands of workers have been made <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-13/national-cabinet-workers-covid-isolation-exemption-expanded/100753788">exempt from isolation protocols</a> by now being classified as “essential”.</p>
<p>Many frontline workers – namely those on casual contracts – are facing the toughest circumstances since the the pandemic began.</p>
<p>With no right to guaranteed minimum hours, sick leave or the other entitlements, those employed as casual workers or as subcontractors are likely to lose income – either due to having to take time off to get tested or self-isolate, or because their workplace hasn’t got enough staff to stay open. There is also a much higher proportion of casual workers in the retail sector, <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/earnings-and-work-hours/characteristics-employment-australia/latest-release">than in the Australian workforce as a whole</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.policyforum.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Pandemic-Pressures.pdf">Our research</a> on the effects of the pandemic on income and conditions for workers between March 2020 and September 2021 shows 55% of those working in retail, fast-food and distribution were forced to take time off work for COVID-related reasons – with a significant percentage losing income as a result.</p>
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<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442418/original/file-20220125-23-px3bfq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442418/original/file-20220125-23-px3bfq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442418/original/file-20220125-23-px3bfq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442418/original/file-20220125-23-px3bfq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442418/original/file-20220125-23-px3bfq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442418/original/file-20220125-23-px3bfq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442418/original/file-20220125-23-px3bfq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442418/original/file-20220125-23-px3bfq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>During this time just 1% of retail workers were diagnosed with COVID-19, and the the financial support available included the lockdown-specific <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp2122/Quick_Guides/COVID-19DisasterPayments">Covid-19 Disaster Payment</a>.</p>
<p>Now, with infection rates running significantly higher – a quarter of Coles warehouse staff, for example, have been reported <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/19/employee-in-coles-supply-chain-says-a-quarter-of-staff-on-leave-due-to-covid">absent due to COVID-19</a> – there’s less support. </p>
<p>Casual retail workers thus face losing hours, being put at greater risk of contracting COVID-19, and dealing with abusive customers over mask, QR code and other requirements. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/content-from-confrontation-how-the-attention-economy-helps-stoke-aggression-towards-retail-workers-173062">Content from confrontation: how the attention economy helps stoke aggression towards retail workers</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What our survey showed</h2>
<p>The purpose of <a href="https://www.policyforum.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Pandemic-Pressures.pdf">our survey</a> of nearly 1,160 retail, fast-food and distribution workers was to gauge how the pandemic had affected employment and income.</p>
<p>Polling company Ipsos conducted the survey in September 2021, during the peak of Sydney’s Delta wave (which sparked suburb-based lockdowns in mid-July 2021) and the start of Melbourne’s Delta wave (with the Andrews government declaring a lockdown on August 5, 2021).</p>
<p>The survey was nationally representative. About 61% of respondents were women, 44% were younger than 30, and 19% were from a non-English-speaking background. About 39% were permanent full-time, 21% permanent part-time and 38% casuals (45% of women were casual, compared with 22% of men). </p>
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<p><iframe id="NlM87" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/NlM87/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<hr>
<p>Because it was nationally representative, about 40% respondents were not in an lockdown area (NSW, Victoria and the Australian Capital Territory) at the time of the survey. This make the results even more stark compared with now.</p>
<p>From March 2020 to September 2021, 55% of retail, fast food and distribution workers had to take time off for a COVID-19 related reason: </p>
<ul>
<li>1% did so due to having COVID-19. Of these, about a third said they took unpaid leave.</li>
<li>7% did so due to being a close contact of someone with COVID-19. Of these, 51% of permanent workers and 78% of casuals took unpaid leave.</li>
<li>11% took time off because they had COVID-19 symptoms. Of these, 45% of permanent workers and 91% of casuals took unpaid leave.</li>
<li>10% were absent due to working at an exposure location. Of these, 27% of permanent workers and 60% of casuals took unpaid leave.</li>
<li>30% took time off because they had to take a COVID-19 test and isolate while waiting for a result. Of these, 42% of permanent workers and 89% of casuals took unpaid leave.</li>
</ul>
<p>Clearly while very few workers were actually sick with COVID-19, it had a significant affect on livelihoods. This a key point to reflect on now more workers have COVID-19 and an even larger number are (or should be) isolating. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/wheres-the-meat-employers-and-governments-should-have-seen-this-supply-crisis-coming-and-done-something-175144">Where's the meat? Employers and governments should have seen this supply crisis coming, and done something</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Short shift for precarious work</h2>
<p>At the time of our survey the risks of catching COVID-19 were relatively small, even for essential frontline workers.</p>
<p>Omicron has substantially increased that risk – along with the risk of losing work hours. </p>
<p>Registering a positive result is the only way ill, casually employed workers can access extra support when they aren’t able to work. But getting a test – <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-04/covid-testing-queue-test-results-stories-shared-pcr/100737438">and results</a> has been difficult, with workers in NSW and Victoria only been able to officially register positive RAT results since January 10. </p>
<p>The Pandemic Leave Disaster Payment is still available to those who don’t qualify for employer-paid leave. But to qualify you must be directed to isolate and stay at home due to having tested positive or been in close contact with someone with COVID-19. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/government-slashes-covid-payment-when-people-need-it-most-175146">Government slashes COVID payment when people need it most</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>You also <a href="https://www.servicesaustralia.gov.au/pandemic-leave-disaster-payment">only qualify</a> for the full $750 a week (for two weeks) if you lose 20 hours or more of paid work a week. If you lose 8-19 hours, you get $450 a week. If you lose less than eight hours, you get nothing.</p>
<p>This highlights the precarious and unsustainable position of Australians employed on casual contracts, especially those in the retail, fast food and distribution sector. Many unwell or at-risk precarious workers are likely to have gone without income while they struggle to get access to tests or lose paid work for other reasons.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/175065/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ariadne Vromen currently receives funding from the Australian Research Council for research into gender equality and the future of work. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Meraiah Foley is a Chief Investigator on two grants funded by the Australian Research Council. She has also received research funding from the Australia New Zealand School of Government. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rae Cooper currently receives funding from the Australian Research Council for research into gender equality and the future of work and as an ARC Future Fellow.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Briony Lipton and Serrin Rutledge-Prior do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Our research suggests the majority of retail workers – and casual workers even moreso – are being forced to take unpaid leave for COVID-related reasons.Ariadne Vromen, Professor, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National UniversityBriony Lipton, Postdoctoral research associate, University of SydneyMeraiah Foley, Senior lecturer, University of SydneyRae Cooper, Professor of Gender, Work and Employment Relations, ARC Future Fellow, Business School, co-Director Women, Work and Leadership Research Group, University of SydneySerrin Rutledge-Prior, PhD Candidate; Course Convenor; Research Officer, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1746992022-01-12T16:43:57Z2022-01-12T16:43:57Z‘Disappointment and disbelief’ after Morrison government vetoes research into student climate activism’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440366/original/file-20220112-23-feiopr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4928%2C3206&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Darren England/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Between 2019 and early 2021, we developed a research proposal asking for funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC). The project was to investigate the mass student climate action movement and its relationship to democracy. </p>
<p>A few weeks ago, on Christmas Eve, we learnt <a href="https://twitter.com/ARC_Tracker/status/1474141201964183553">via Twitter</a> that the ARC had recommended our research proposal for funding, but acting Education Minister Stuart Robert vetoed the recommendation.</p>
<p>Robert also <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-education/politicisation-of-research-grants-beggars-belief-20211226-p59k6j">vetoed five other</a> humanities projects. He did so <a href="https://www.innovationaus.com/minister-rejects-six-peer-reviewed-arc-research-grants-on-national-interest-grounds/">on the grounds</a> they “do not demonstrate value for taxpayers’ money nor contribute to the national interest”.</p>
<p>This <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-education/more-than-60-professors-protest-stuart-robert-s-research-grant-veto-20220110-p59n5t">political intervention is a problem</a> for many reasons. Chief among them, it breaches key principles of academic autonomy and – in our case, also silences research working with young people on a crucial policy issue. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="boy holds sign" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440365/original/file-20220112-23-1ctj3eq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440365/original/file-20220112-23-1ctj3eq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440365/original/file-20220112-23-1ctj3eq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440365/original/file-20220112-23-1ctj3eq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440365/original/file-20220112-23-1ctj3eq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440365/original/file-20220112-23-1ctj3eq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440365/original/file-20220112-23-1ctj3eq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The decision silences research into young people on climate change.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Darren England/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>‘Freedom in research and training’</h2>
<p>Since 1988, almost 1,000 universities in 94 countries have signed <a href="http://www.magna-charta.org">the Magna Charta Universitatum</a>, including ten from Australia. The charter affirms the deepest values of university traditions.</p>
<p>In practice, it means a university “must serve society as a whole” and that “to meet the needs of the world around it, its research and teaching must be intellectually independent of all political authority and economic power”.</p>
<p>Central to the charter is that “freedom in research and training is the fundamental principle of university life”. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.arc.gov.au/about-arc">The ARC</a> administers the National Competitive Grants Program, which delivers around $800 million to Australian researchers each year.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.arc.gov.au/grants">ARC grants process</a> involves several rounds of rigorous review and assessment, by internationally leading scholars. The ARC then recommends to the education minister which proposals should be funded, and the budget. The minister makes the final funding decisions.</p>
<p>The Morrison government <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=TAWEB_WRE170_a_GGL&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Fhigher-education%2Fevery-australian-university-has-adopted-morrison-governments-free-speech-code%2Fnews-story%2F756becf4e06a609bf1f96141328d8640&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21=dynamic-warm-control-score&V21spcbehaviour=append">claims</a> it wants to protect academic freedoms. And it commissioned <a href="https://www.dese.gov.au/higher-education-publications/resources/report-independent-review-freedom-speech-australian-higher-education-providers-march-2019">a 2019 review</a> of freedom of expression and intellectual inquiry in higher education.</p>
<p>However, Robert’s veto of the ARC’s decision to fund six projects is a clear breach of the core principle of academic freedom. </p>
<p>What’s more, it’s not the first time Morrison government education ministers have ridden roughshod over the funding processes of the ARC and university research. </p>
<p>In 2018-19, Simon Birmingham <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/26/knuckle-dragging-philistines-labor-targets-liberals-for-blocking-arts-grants">vetoed</a> 11 research grants recommended by the ARC. In 2020, Dan Tehan <a href="https://www.timeshighereducation.com/news/more-australian-research-grants-vetoed-outgoing-minister">vetoed</a> five.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/arc-grants-if-australia-wants-to-tackle-the-biggest-issues-politicians-need-to-stop-meddling-with-basic-research-174607">ARC grants: if Australia wants to tackle the biggest issues, politicians need to stop meddling with basic research</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="man touches head" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440386/original/file-20220112-27-1iw1pqt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440386/original/file-20220112-27-1iw1pqt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440386/original/file-20220112-27-1iw1pqt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440386/original/file-20220112-27-1iw1pqt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440386/original/file-20220112-27-1iw1pqt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440386/original/file-20220112-27-1iw1pqt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440386/original/file-20220112-27-1iw1pqt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Robert’s veto is a clear breach of academic freedom.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lucas Coch/AAP</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>An important new phenomenon</h2>
<p>The project we proposed for ARC funding was titled “New possibilities: student climate action and democratic renewal”. It involved working directly with young people to investigate a significant new phenomenon. </p>
<p>Since 2018, millions of students across the globe have worked hard as leaders, organisers and advocates for action on climate change. Their actions include the school strikes for climate and various <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-a-landmark-judgment-the-federal-court-found-the-environment-minister-has-a-duty-of-care-to-young-people-161650">legal actions</a>. In Australia since 2018, we estimate at least 500,000 school students have participated in the movement, including coordinated school strike actions online and in the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/sep/20/hundreds-of-thousands-attend-school-climate-strike-rallies-across-australia">streets</a>.</p>
<p>Our project was designed to document such actions and to establish:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>why young people participate</p></li>
<li><p>what activities they undertake</p></li>
<li><p>what we can learn from the movement to address climate change and strengthen our democracy. </p></li>
</ul>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/seriously-ugly-heres-how-australia-will-look-if-the-world-heats-by-3-c-this-century-157875">Seriously ugly: here's how Australia will look if the world heats by 3°C this century</a>
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<hr>
<p>Our project would have led to vital new knowledge on a global phenomenon. It had the potential to help address falling trust in governments and dissatisfaction with democracy, and to give new insights on engaging with young people in learning about and responding to climate change.</p>
<p>It also provided jobs for early-career researchers already facing cripplingly <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-13/covid-job-cuts-at-universities-prompting-fears-for-future/100447960">precarious employment</a> in the university sector.</p>
<p>Our proposal relied on a vast body of academic work and expertise, and previous scholarship by the research team. It was connected to a global research network exploring young people’s climate politics and broader possibilities for democracy. </p>
<p>Developing the proposal involved hundreds of hours of additional research, writing, editing and consultation with professional staff across five universities. </p>
<p>For the ARC to judge the project worthy of funding, it must have determined it passed the <a href="https://www.arc.gov.au/national-interest-test-statements">national interest test</a> and that <a href="https://www.arc.gov.au/peer-review/overview-arc-funding-process">it was value for money</a>.</p>
<p>Significantly, we have no formal right to appeal the decision. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="students walk and yello at protest" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440385/original/file-20220112-23-113gh9o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440385/original/file-20220112-23-113gh9o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440385/original/file-20220112-23-113gh9o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440385/original/file-20220112-23-113gh9o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440385/original/file-20220112-23-113gh9o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440385/original/file-20220112-23-113gh9o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440385/original/file-20220112-23-113gh9o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The project aimed to learn more about the student climate movement.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">James Ross/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>‘Disappointment and disbelief’</h2>
<p>The minister’s intervention is a serious blow to Australia’s reputation for research excellence and its commitment to academic freedom.</p>
<p>The Morrison government has also sent a negative message to Australia’s young people – essentially saying research into their views on climate change is irrelevant. </p>
<p>We asked students who we work with to respond to the government’s veto, and they stand with us in disappointment and disbelief. Audrey, aged 10, who has participated in climate action, said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“I personally think that the vetoing was to stop the research from public view to make the government look better, as they aren’t doing enough on climate change. Another main reason why the vetoing is so bad and unfair is that the government is sending the message that young people’s views aren’t important to both young people and the community.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Urgent change is needed to ensure academic autonomy, freedom, and independence of process are not subject to political interference in future. </p>
<p>Addressing urgent and complex problems such as climate change involves research across the full spectrum of society – and that includes Australia’s young people. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ministerial-interference-is-an-attack-on-academic-freedom-and-australias-literary-culture-174329">Ministerial interference is an attack on academic freedom and Australia's literary culture</a>
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</p>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/174699/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philippa Collin receives funding from the NHMRC, Victorian Government, UNICEF and Google.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brendan Churchill receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Faith Gordon receives funding from The Australian Research Council (ARC) and The Australasian Institute of Judicial Administration (AIJA). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stewart Jackson has previously received funding from the International Development Committee of the Australian Greens for research on Asia Pacific environmental movements and parties. He is a member of the Australian Greens.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Judith Bessant, Michelle Catanzaro, and Rob Watts do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Addressing urgent and complex problems such as climate change involves research across the full spectrum of society – and that includes Australia’s young people.Philippa Collin, Associate Professor, Institute for Culture and Society, Western Sydney UniversityBrendan Churchill, ARC Research Fellow and Lecturer in Sociology, The University of MelbourneFaith Gordon, Associate Professor in Law, Australian National UniversityJudith Bessant, Professor in School of Global, Urban and Social Studies, RMIT UniversityMichelle Catanzaro, Senior Lecturer in Design / Senior Research Fellow (YRRC), Western Sydney UniversityRob Watts, Professor of Social Policy, RMIT UniversityStewart Jackson, Senior Lecturer, Department of Government and International Relations, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1746062022-01-11T19:17:57Z2022-01-11T19:17:57ZHealthy humans drive the economy: we’re now witnessing one of the worst public policy failures in Australia’s history<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440159/original/file-20220111-19-ho52kh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C7348%2C4891&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Shutterstock</span> </figcaption></figure><p>Australians are getting a stark reminder about how value is actually created in an economy, and how supply chains truly work.</p>
<p>Ask chief executives where value comes from and they will credit their own smart decisions that inflate shareholder wealth. Ask logistics experts how supply chains work and they will wax eloquent about ports, terminals and trucks. Politicians, meanwhile, highlight nebulous intangibles like “investor confidence” – enhanced, presumably, by their own steady hands on the tiller.</p>
<p>The reality of value-added production and supply is much more human than all of this. It is people who are the driving force behind production, distribution and supply.</p>
<p>Labour – human beings getting out of bed and going to work, using their brains and brawn to produce actual goods and services – is the only thing that adds value to the “free gifts” we harvest from nature. It’s the only thing that puts food on supermarket shelves, cares for sick people and teaches our children.</p>
<p>Even the technology used to enhance workers’ productivity – or sometimes even replace them – is ultimately the culmination of other human beings doing their jobs. The glorious complexity of the whole economy boils down to human beings, using raw materials extracted and tools built by other human beings, working to produce goods and services.</p>
<h2>A narrow, distorted economic lens</h2>
<p>The economy doesn’t work if people can’t work. So the first economic priority during a pandemic must be to keep people healthy enough to keep working, producing, delivering and buying. </p>
<p>That some political and business leaders have, from the outset of COVID-19, consistently downplayed the economic costs of mass illness, reflects a narrow, distorted economic lens. We’re now seeing the result – one of the worst public policy failures in Australia’s history. </p>
<p>The Omicron variant is tearing through Australia’s workforce, from <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/nurses-are-in-despair-as-staffing-shortages-bite-in-nsw-hospitals-20220103-p59ljc.html?fbclid=IwAR3obDpqk7Muu2xpOA1H7MH2D2TuxPIzMQrL_NKk2QoKHA2LriWoRcmRO8o">health care</a> and <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/hundreds-of-nsw-childcare-centres-shut-due-to-covid-20220104-p59ls4.html">child care</a>, to <a href="https://www.edenmagnet.com.au/story/7575635/knock-on-effects-through-supply-chain-despite-eased-covid-rules-for-workers/">agriculture</a> and <a href="https://www.freshplaza.com/article/9388733/omicron-has-now-put-us-in-a-desperate-situation-in-regards-to-workers-shortage-and-shipping-issues/">manufacturing</a>, to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-06/supermarket-shortage-supply-chain-truck-driver-covid/100741392">transportation and logistics</a>, to <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/surf-lifesavers-and-students-fill-paramedic-shifts-as-omicron-spreads-20220108-p59mrq.html">emergency services</a>. </p>
<p>The result is an unprecedented, and preventable, economic catastrophe. This catastrophe was visited upon us by leaders – NSW Premier Dom Perrotet and Prime Minister Scott Morrison in particular – on the grounds they were protecting the economy. Like a Mafia kingpin extorting money, this is the kind of “protection” that can kill you.</p>
<h2>Effect as bad as lockdowns</h2>
<p>On a typical day in normal times, between <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/labour-force-australia/nov-2021/EM2b.xlsx">3% and 4% of employed Australians</a> miss work due to their own illness. Multiple reports from NSW indicate up to half of workers are now absent due to COVID: because they contracted it, were exposed to it, or must care for someone (like children barred from child care) because of it. With infections still spreading, this will get worse in the days ahead.</p>
<p>Staffing shortages have left hospitals in chaos, supermarket shelves empty, supply chains paralysed. ANZ Bank data, for example, shows <a href="https://twitter.com/ANZ_Research/status/1479284711151345666?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet">economic activity in Sydney</a> has fallen to a level lower than the worst lockdowns. </p>
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<p><strong>Spending in Sydney and Melbourne now near lockdown conditions</strong></p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440169/original/file-20220111-17-1jp9jpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="ANZ Bank data shows spending in Sydney and Melbourne has fallen to levels typical of lockdown conditions." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440169/original/file-20220111-17-1jp9jpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440169/original/file-20220111-17-1jp9jpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440169/original/file-20220111-17-1jp9jpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440169/original/file-20220111-17-1jp9jpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440169/original/file-20220111-17-1jp9jpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440169/original/file-20220111-17-1jp9jpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440169/original/file-20220111-17-1jp9jpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><span class="source">ANZ Research</span></span>
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<p>If relaxing health restrictions in December (as Omicron was already spreading) was motivated by a desire to boost the economy, this is an own-goal for the history books.</p>
<h2>Relaxing isolation rules</h2>
<p>Now the response to Omicron ravaging labour supply is to relax isolation requirements for workers who have contracted, or been exposed to, COVID-19.</p>
<p>The first step was to shift the goalposts on “test, trace, isolate and quarantine” arrangements by redefining “close contact”. </p>
<p>On December 29 <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/press-conference-kirribilli-nsw-10">the Prime Minister said</a> it was important to move to a new definition “that enables Australia to keep moving, for people to get on with their lives”. The next day National Cabinet <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/national-cabinet-statement-12">approved a definition</a> such that only individuals having spent at least four hours indoors with a COVID-infected person needed to isolate.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/its-still-not-too-late-to-fix-the-rapid-antigen-testing-debacle-why-the-national-cabinet-decision-is-wrong-and-must-be-reversed-174391">It's still not too late to fix the rapid antigen testing debacle. Why the national cabinet decision is wrong and must be reversed</a>
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<p>Australians certainly want supply chains to keep moving. That won’t happen by simply pretending someone with three hours and 59 minutes of face-to-face indoor contact with Omicron is safe. Putting asymptomatic but exposed and potentially infected people back to work will only accelerate the spread.</p>
<p>The second step has been to reduce the isolation period for those who do pass this tougher “close contact” test. At its December 30 meeting National Cabinet agreed to a standard isolation period of seven days (ten days in South Australia), <a href="https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/gp-opinion/so-you-have-been-asked-to-self-isolate-or-quaranti">down from 14 days</a>.</p>
<p>For “critical workers” in essential services including food logistics, the NSW and Queensland governments <a href="https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/at-work/isolation-rules-relaxed-for-critical-workers-as-nsw-battles-supply-chain-issues/news-story/2b97ef133f6c3caff9dcd5bc548cc58b">have gone even further</a>, allowing employers to call them back to work so long as they are asymptomatic. </p>
<h2>Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory</h2>
<p>This follows a <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/s1227-isolation-quarantine-guidance.html">US precedent</a>, despite <a href="https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMc2102507?articleTools=true">scientific evidence</a> indicating contagion commonly lasts longer than 5 days.</p>
<p>Employers will use this change to pressure exposed and even sick workers to return to work, risking their own health, colleagues, customers, and inevitably spreading the virus further.</p>
<p>Copying US COVID protocols only guarantees US-style infection rates. In fact, since 5 January, Australia’s seven-day rolling average infections per million <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2021-03-30..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=desc&pickerMetric=total_cases_per_million&hideControls=true&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=USA%7EAUS">now exceed that of the US</a>. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440179/original/file-20220111-21-zzh3bj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Daily new confirmed COVID-19 cases per million people, Australia compared to United States." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440179/original/file-20220111-21-zzh3bj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440179/original/file-20220111-21-zzh3bj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440179/original/file-20220111-21-zzh3bj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440179/original/file-20220111-21-zzh3bj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440179/original/file-20220111-21-zzh3bj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440179/original/file-20220111-21-zzh3bj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440179/original/file-20220111-21-zzh3bj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2021-03-30..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=desc&pickerMetric=total_cases_per_million&hideControls=true&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=USA~AUS">Our Wold in Data</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>From one of the best COVID responses in the world to one of the worst, Australia has snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.</p>
<h2>It’s not too late to limit the carnage</h2>
<p>The idea that health considerations <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/oct/07/its-an-economic-crisis-too-in-nsw-what-a-difference-a-new-premier-makes">had to be balanced with economic interests</a> was always a false dichotomy. A healthy economy requires healthy workers and healthy consumers. </p>
<p>The Omicron surge has created an economic emergency that will be difficult to endure. </p>
<p>But it’s not too late to limit further avoidable contagion. Infection prevention practices (including masks, capacity limits, prohibitions on group indoor activities, PPE and distancing in workplaces, and free and accessible rapid tests) must be restored and enforced.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/from-covid-control-to-chaos-what-now-for-australia-two-pathways-lie-before-us-174325">From COVID control to chaos – what now for Australia? Two pathways lie before us</a>
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<p>Income supports for workers who stay home must be restored. Staffing strategies need to emphasise steady, secure jobs, rather than outsourcing and gig arrangements which have facilitated contagion.</p>
<p>Above all, our policy makers need to remember the economy is composed of human beings, and refocus their attention on keeping people healthy. Protecting people is the only thing that can protect the economy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/174606/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jim Stanford is a member of the Australian Services Union.</span></em></p>Some political and business leaders have, from the outset of COVID-19, downplayed the economic costs of mass illness. We’re now seeing the result.Jim Stanford, Economist and Director, Centre for Future Work, Australia Institute; Honorary Professor of Political Economy, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1746042022-01-10T11:25:03Z2022-01-10T11:25:03ZView from The Hill: Morrison government considering whether to cancel Djokovic’s visa – again<p>A sense of proportion is a very useful quality in politics. In the case of Novak Djokovic, the Morrison government has lost that sense entirely.</p>
<p>Late Monday in the Federal Circuit Court, Judge Anthony Kelly quashed last week’s cancellation of the tennis star’s visa, done on his arrival in Australia to play in the Australian Open.</p>
<p>The judge read a minute, agreed to by both sides, which said Djokovic wasn’t given sufficient opportunity to respond at the border (the saga went through the early hours, when he couldn’t contact people).</p>
<p>With Djokovic’s court win, the government immediately faced an invidious choice – accept its humiliation or launch a fresh, hairy-chested offensive.</p>
<p>Immigration Minister Alex Hawke has the power to move, under his ministerial discretion, to cancel the now-restored visa. </p>
<p>On Monday night, a spokesman for Hawke said “the minister is currently considering the matter and the process remains ongoing”.</p>
<p>Surely, it would have been better for the government to just cut its losses at once. The speaker of Serbia’s parliament, Ivica Dacic, made some sense in saying “the process should have ended when the court ruled”.</p>
<p>Most Australians – in a highly vaccinated population – would struggle with the tennis star’s resistance to the jab. It seems perverse and irresponsible. Many would say he should not have been allowed to get on a plane to come to Australia, whether or not he had met the (unclear) technicalities of the medical exemption criteria. </p>
<p>All fair enough. But the government shenanigans after he was granted a visa and arrived at Melbourne airport blew the matter into a diplomatic incident, and the theatre of the absurd. </p>
<p>Some commentators argue the government calculated that throwing Djokovic out would be a political distraction from the horrors of the escalating Omicron crisis. </p>
<p>But really? Would people struggling with illness, the search for tests, and the disruption to employment and businesses, have their attention so readily diverted? Certainly not for more than an instant.</p>
<p>Looked at rationally, it is near impossible to understand why the government chose to get itself into this mess. Or why it left things hanging after the court decision.</p>
<p>It would be a stretch to argue Djokovic is a danger to public health. Earlier in the pandemic, the unvaccinated player might have been a COVID risk – that is, when we had more or less “suppressed” the virus. That’s hardly the case now, when the latest COVID wave is spreading – and being allowed by the authorities to spread – like wildfire.</p>
<p>The government may have wanted to use a tall poppy to reinforce that “tough-borders” message – you don’t get in if you don’t follow “the rules”, as Prime Minister Scott Morrison said. </p>
<p>But the evidence given in Monday’s court case indicated Djokovic arrived thinking he had followed the rules. And it turns out the government got its comeuppance from the court for not abiding by procedural rules. </p>
<p>Kelly declared during the hearing, “The point I’m somewhat agitated about is what more could this man have done” to comply with the rules. Anyway, it defies common sense to believe Djokovic would have undertaken the trip unless he thought things were in order. </p>
<p>The federal and Victorian governments, Tennis Australia, Border Force and Djokovic himself all share responsibility for this inglorious episode, which has been laced with confusion. </p>
<p>Assuming Djokovic arrived on a sincere misapprehension, the sensible course would have been for the government to have found a way through rather than resorting to its heavy handedness at the border. This has made Australia look like hicksville, and been bad for the reputation of the Australian Open. </p>
<p>Serbia mightn’t be France, but its president can also pack a punch when national pride is at stake. </p>
<p>Turning Serbia’s national hero into Australia’s national villain has been harder than the government thought. It’s become an own goal for the government’s latest “operation sovereign borders” chapter.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/174604/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Turning Serbia’s national hero into Australia’s national villain has been harder than the government thought. It’s an own goal for the latest “operation sovereign borders” chapter.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.