tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/nrl-grand-final-12647/articlesNRL Grand Final – The Conversation2021-09-15T06:42:47Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1678792021-09-15T06:42:47Z2021-09-15T06:42:47ZCan Queensland cash in on the NRL finals? It’s all about ‘event leveraging’<p>Queensland’s love of rugby league, and the fact the state isn’t in lockdown, has won it the right to host the 2021 NRL finals series. </p>
<p>But it was economic gains as much as love of the game that Premier Annastacia Pałaszczuk spruiked when announcing Queensland would host all eight finals games plus the grand final at Brisbane’s Suncorp Stadium. Six of those games are being played outside Brisbane — two in Townsville, two in Mackay, and one apiece in Rockhampton and Sunshine Coast.</p>
<p>“It’s a tremendous gesture from the NRL and will provide an economic boost spread over our regional cities,” Pałaszczuk <a href="https://statements.qld.gov.au/statements/93155">said in a statement</a>. Her minister for sport, Stirling Hinchliffe, was even more effusive. “It will invest millions of dollars into local economies and boost intra-state tourism into regional Queensland cities,” he said.</p>
<p>But will it? </p>
<h2>Uncertain gains</h2>
<p>Research shows that hosting sport and other events rarely delivers the economic and tourism benefits commonly claimed. In fact, studies around large-scale events often fail to show any positive economic impact at all. </p>
<p>The financial hangover from hosting events such as the Olympics is well-documented. It took Montreal 30 years to pay off the debt incurred from hosting the 1976 Olympic Games. The 2004 Athens and 2016 Rio de Janeiro Games also failed spectacularly to deliver on their promises of economic benefit. </p>
<p>The Olympics, though, is in a league of its own, due to the scale of competition, sheer number of venues required and being a one-off. </p>
<p>Hosting a seasonal sporting event using existing infrastructure should be of greater economic value. The outlays aren’t anywhere near as much, and local hotels, restaurants and other businesses get a boost from the influx of sport tourists.</p>
<p>The problem is that this year’s NRL finals won’t see thousands of footy fans flying from interstate and injecting money into local economies through transport, accommodation, dining and other touristy activities. </p>
<p>So Townsville, Mackay, Rockhampton and Sunshine Coast may benefit from intrastate visitors, but perhaps not to the extent of the promised millions.</p>
<p>Rockhampton Regional Council, for example, has estimated the economic value of the September 12 elimination final between Parramatta Eels and the Newcastle Knights to be $680,000, with about a quarter of the 5,000 spectators from outside the region. That estimate depends on assumptions about those visitors spending money on accommodation, and all spectators spending money on local retail and in hospitality businesses.</p>
<h2>Event leveraging</h2>
<p>So how does an economic return occur from hosting smaller-scale events like the NRL finals? </p>
<p>The answer is “event leveraging”. It is not enough just to hold an event; organisers must implement strategies to achieve the benefits touted — encouraging visitors to spend more, and using the occasion to promote the host area as a tourism destination.</p>
<p>For example, French towns and regions that attract Tour de France fans <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexledsom/2020/09/01/why-this-tour-de-france-is-one-of-the-most-important-ever/?sh=5d307d0c10b7">use event-themed activities</a> to keep visitors around longer. </p>
<p>Spreading the NRL finals games between Brisbane and four regional centres can also be seen as a leveraging strategy — spreading any economic benefits more evenly throughout the state — particularly to areas hit hard by the loss of international and interstate tourism. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/footy-crowds-what-the-afl-and-nrl-need-to-turn-sport-into-show-business-139471">Footy crowds: what the AFL and NRL need to turn sport into show business</a>
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<h2>Media exposure</h2>
<p>This also helps what is, given closed borders, the even more important component for Queensland to leverage the NRL finals: media attention that showcases the host region as a future place to visit.</p>
<p>During the Sydney 2000 Olympics, for example, a program encouraged media organisations to cover tourism destinations such as the Blue Mountains and Uluru, by providing visiting journalists with video <a href="https://library.olympics.com/default/digitalCollection/DigitalCollectionInlineDownloadHandler.ashx?parentDocumentId=176158&documentId=176163&_cb=20201101172943">and other resources</a></p>
<p>Even with the more modest NRL, media attention isn’t just confined to the hours before, during and after the actual games. There is an intensive industry generating content in the days leading up to game, and in the wash-up. </p>
<p>This occurs through general media coverage and the well-developed communications channels of the NRL and its respective clubs. Now players also cultivate their own audiences through social media. Melbourne Storm star Cameron Munster, for example, has <a href="https://www.instagram.com/munster94/?hl=en">158,000 followers on Instagram</a>.</p>
<p>The biggest audiences, though, come from game broadcasts. These typically are replete with aerial shots of the ground and other imagery showcasing the host city. </p>
<p>Queensland’s premier and minister for sport must therefore be relieved the NRL has rescheduled the preliminary final (at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane), originally set to coincide with the AFL grand final on September 25. One of the teams in that preliminary final is Melbourne Storm. The broadcast would have denied the NRL, and Queensland, thousands of television viewers.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-nrls-unrivalled-equality-means-back-to-back-premierships-are-very-rare-92666">The NRL’s unrivalled equality means back-to-back premierships are very rare</a>
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<p>So the NRL finals should provide some immediate economic benefit to the host cities and towns, though perhaps not as much as the Queensland government would like to think. They also provide a great opportunity to promote regional Queensland as a tourist destination to interstate audiences. </p>
<p>But without the time to implement strategies to really leverage these events, the extent of economic benefits that will flow to Queensland in the longer term is hard to estimate.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/167879/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Research shows that hosting sport and other events rarely deliver the economic and tourism benefits commonly attributed to them.Sheranne Fairley, Associate professor, The University of QueenslandDanny O'Brien, Associate Professor, Sport Management, Bond UniversityVitor Sobral, PhD candidate, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1456192020-10-22T02:28:01Z2020-10-22T02:28:01ZThe power of the grand final crowd recalls ancient times<p>The year has been a strange one for sports lovers. </p>
<p>We’ve seen athlete protests here and <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/27/world/gallery/sports-protests/index.html">around the world</a>. Where big gatherings have been permitted in the US, <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/sports/sporting-scene/the-nfls-discordant-return">discordant NFL crowds</a> have highlighted America’s divisions.</p>
<p>Australian stadium rules have <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-30/nrl-grand-final-to-host-40k-fans-with-move-to-anz-stadium/12716378">varied from state to state</a> and the AFL Grand Final will be played before a smaller than normal crowd <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-02/afl-grand-final-brisbane-gabba-tickets-coronavirus-restrictions/12621194">at the Gabba rather than the MCG</a>. Sunday’s NRL Grand Final, meanwhile, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-30/nrl-grand-final-to-host-40k-fans-with-move-to-anz-stadium/12716378">will bring 40,000 fans together</a>. </p>
<p>Sport can unite people with a common sense of purpose and identity. The sporting crowd can also vent community concerns and express social dissatisfaction. </p>
<p>This power of cheering — or jeering — goes back to ancient times.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/thucydides-and-the-plague-of-athens-what-it-can-teach-us-now-133155">Thucydides and the plague of Athens - what it can teach us now</a>
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<h2>Blues versus Greens</h2>
<p>By the late Roman Republic, prominent statesmen were expected to provide public entertainments, which also served to keep the masses content and under control. </p>
<p>Like his predecessors, emperor <a href="https://www.ancient.eu/augustus/">Augustus</a> organised gladiatorial games but also a number of athletic events, taking his inspiration from the Greek Olympic Games. </p>
<p>To commemorate his victory against Antony and Cleopatra in 31 BC at the naval battle of Actium, Augustus established the Actian Games, which took place every four years in emulation of the Olympic Games.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/hidden-women-of-history-kyniska-the-first-female-olympian-123909">Hidden women of history: Kyniska, the first female Olympian</a>
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<p>Notably, in his <a href="http://classics.mit.edu/Augustus/deeds.html">Res Gestae</a>, the public summation of his reign, Augustus rejoiced in his games alongside his conquests. In each of the events he attended, the leader and his public barracked in chorus and their harmony represented the harmony of the state. </p>
<p>The same could not be said of the chariot races between rival teams — the Blues and the Greens — in Constantinople in 532 AD. Emperor <a href="https://www.ancient.eu/Justinian_I/">Justinian</a>, an unpopular ruler, was watching at the <a href="https://www.ancient.eu/article/1158/the-hippodrome-of-constantinople/">hippodrome</a> with up to 100,000 spectators at one of the 70-odd races held there annually. Then the crowd turned on him. </p>
<p>The amphitheatre had already been the scene of chaos in 501 AD, when the <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/blue-versus-green-rocking-the-byzantine-empire-113325928/">Greens ambushed the Blues</a> and massacred 3,000 people. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363896/original/file-20201016-13-1l24rte.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Mosaic of ancient ruler Justinian" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363896/original/file-20201016-13-1l24rte.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363896/original/file-20201016-13-1l24rte.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=832&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363896/original/file-20201016-13-1l24rte.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=832&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363896/original/file-20201016-13-1l24rte.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=832&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363896/original/file-20201016-13-1l24rte.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1046&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363896/original/file-20201016-13-1l24rte.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1046&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363896/original/file-20201016-13-1l24rte.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1046&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Mosaic of Justinianus, Basilica San Vitale Ravenna.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/3d/Mosaic_of_Justinianus_I_-_Basilica_San_Vitale_%28Ravenna%29.jpg/512px-Mosaic_of_Justinianus_I_-_Basilica_San_Vitale_%28Ravenna%29.jpg">Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>Yet in 532 AD, the fans, upset by Justinian’s high taxes and poor response to their political demands, along with widespread corruption among his officials, put sporting rivalries aside to chant “Nika!” in unison, meaning “Conquer!” A slogan typically used to cheer on charioteers, was now directed against the emperor.
Massive civic unrest erupted for a week; the city was torched, its major church (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hagia_Sophia">Agia Sophia</a> burnt, and thousands murdered.</p>
<p>Justinian’s reign went on to be marred by disaster: from 541 to 549 AD, Constantinople suffered the first old world <a href="https://www.ancient.eu/article/782/justinians-plague-541-542-ce/">pandemic</a>. In 542 AD alone, 5,000—10,000 deaths occurred daily, until one third of the population was wiped out. Justinian was infected and although he survived the plague, he remained unpopular.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/dying-old-dying-young-death-and-ageism-in-the-times-of-greek-myth-and-coronavirus-137496">Dying old, dying young – death and ageism in the times of Greek myth and coronavirus</a>
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<h2>Chanting to power</h2>
<p>At sporting events and other large crowd spectacles in the ancient world, people could pitch requests and voice socioeconomic <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/297505">grievances</a>. </p>
<p>It was customary for high officials — the emperor, his ministers, or local authorities — to be present, and they were expected to respond to such petitions. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363898/original/file-20201016-17-gmhtah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Black and while illustration of ancient Roman chariot race scene" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363898/original/file-20201016-17-gmhtah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363898/original/file-20201016-17-gmhtah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363898/original/file-20201016-17-gmhtah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363898/original/file-20201016-17-gmhtah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363898/original/file-20201016-17-gmhtah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363898/original/file-20201016-17-gmhtah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363898/original/file-20201016-17-gmhtah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Chariot races brought rulers into close proximity with athletes and the masses.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?search=chariot+race&title=Special:Search&go=Go&ns0=1&ns6=1&ns12=1&ns14=1&ns100=1&ns106=1&searchToken=hcat63h46y9ud5ai2lcduoc6#%2Fmedia%2FFile%3AGreat_Men_and_Famous_Women_Volume_1_-_ROME_UNDER_TRAJAN%E2%80%94A_CHARIOT_RACE.jpg">Wikimedia/Ulpiano Checa</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>In 362 AD, the people of <a href="https://www.ancient.eu/Antiochia/">Antioch</a>, in Roman Syria, greeted the emperor Julian in the hippodrome with the chant, “Everything is plentiful, everything is dear,” <a href="http://www.attalus.org/translate/misopogon.html">protesting the high prices of grain</a> in the city.</p>
<p>In first century Alexandria, meanwhile, which was home to a large Jewish population, racial tension, combined with racially-based tax exemptions and civic rights, found expression at sports grounds and public events. Violence <a href="http://penelope.uchicago.edu/Thayer/E/Roman/Texts/Philo/in_Flaccum*.html">consumed the city in 38</a> and <a href="http://penelope.uchicago.edu/josephus/war-2.html">again in 66</a>. It began at the <a href="https://www.ancient.eu/Gymnasium/">gymnasium</a> and the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/09523369608713960?casa_token=2fXh5d5gehEAAAAA:ZRbUdIV1J0twaH0QKBWBP4z-uvdoXRfFpEvjjU2g3JcsDI-qiCTyvdh65WPsccl3PsJcTIg9pwy3">theatre</a>. </p>
<p>The importance of sport for cementing authority was also reflected in 540 AD when the Sasanian king <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Khosrow-I">Khosrau I</a> tried to oversee chariot racing in a captured Roman city in Asia Minor. According to the <a href="https://www.gutenberg.org/files/16764/16764-h/16764-h.htm">historian Procopius </a>, Khosrau demanded that the Blues lose the race because he knew they were Justinian’s favourite team! </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/leaders-as-healers-ancient-greek-ideas-on-the-health-of-the-body-politic-135028">Leaders as healers: Ancient Greek ideas on the health of the body politic</a>
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<h2>Sport and civics today</h2>
<p>Although we now interpret political legitimacy differently to the ancients, aspects of our sporting events are the same. </p>
<p>There is the conspicuous <a href="https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/prime-minister-scott-morrison-defends-watching-sharks-football-game-during-pandemic/news-story/4d24b39de9cfcf9a243ba3c30b3dbeb3">presence of politicians</a>, singing of <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-06/arlc-scraps-national-anthem-for-all-stars/11941234">anthems</a>, the over-the-top <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bv_6qiFAoP0&ab_channel=NFLFilms">displays of military might</a> and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pILCn6VO_RU">performances</a>. </p>
<p>And, as in ancient times, symbolic or vocal protests in venues and at events laden with national significance are hard to ignore. When these actions are witnessed by thousands and speak to raw existential conflict, such as famine (in the past) or racism (today), they become even more powerful. </p>
<p>This year’s grand final has already been mired in <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-queensland-afl-grand-final-brisbane-move-from-victoria-matt-canavan/91cc6ff0-b1f8-428f-909a-c96618a1d3fe">political point-scoring</a>. How the crowd behaves remains to be seen.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145619/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eva Anagnostou-Laoutides receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew O'Farrell receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Theodore de Bruyn receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada and the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>Crowds, albeit smaller ones, will again watch the AFL and NRL grand finals. Crowds can bring people together but, since the time of the Roman republic, they have also expressed political dissent.Eva Anagnostou-Laoutides, Associate Professor in Ancient History, Australian Research Council Future Fellow, Macquarie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1037702018-09-27T01:51:26Z2018-09-27T01:51:26ZBlow that whistle: seven reasons you should respect the ref in the NRL Grand Final<p>This weekend’s rugby league Grand Final sees the <a href="https://www.nrl.com/news/2018/09/23/sydney-roosters-v-melbourne-storm-grand-final-preview/">Sydney Roosters face the Melbourne Storm</a> in front of a stadium crowd of thousands – and even more on television. All eyes will be on the referee to make sure the play is fair.</p>
<p>Like elite athletes, the reputation of these full-time professional refs is often summarised by their performance in high-pressure, high-stakes events – watched by people they can never impress.</p>
<p>Over the past three years, I have spent countless hours studying how NRL referees learn their craft. </p>
<p>So, ahead of this year’s NRL grand final, here are some aspects that might help you see the game from a ref’s point of view.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/split-second-decisions-with-little-praise-so-what-does-it-take-to-ref-a-game-of-nrl-57553">Split-second decisions with little praise: so what does it take to ref a game of NRL</a>
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<h2>1. Mt Everest moment</h2>
<p>The Grand Final is the ultimate. It is the pinnacle of a referee’s work over the course of the year. Everyone wants to make it, to earn the right to rule.</p>
<p>But they may never reach that pinnacle again. </p>
<p>So remember that they want the best: they really want to represent the game, the two teams involved, the fans and those referees who didn’t make the final, to the best of their ability. </p>
<h2>2. You only see it once</h2>
<p>Referees make split-second decisions. They only see things once, often only a small movement, and usually at speed.</p>
<p>They have to calculate the right moment to strike. They don’t have the luxury of multiple video replays to get it right.</p>
<p>Even without the involvement of the bunker – a centralised facility that records the game from several angles and to which refs can refer decisions for review – consider how hard this is to maintain faultlessly (and fearlessly) over two 40-minute blocks.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/FR7XPA2-vrg?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Refs can call on the bunker for help.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>3. They never fly solo</h2>
<p>During the course of a game, lead referees have to cope with listening to their assistant referee, two line judges, the matchday referee coach, players yelling at them, and occasionally spectators who provide their own helpful advice.</p>
<p>They also have to call for assistance, knowing that this may overrule something on which they have already made a ruling. </p>
<p>Remember, few of us hold jobs where people are simultaneously speaking to us, where we have to demand a second opinion, and where we can be called out for our mistakes on national television. </p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/T-KaLWb6gdE?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Everyone’s a critic of the refs.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>4. Reading their mind</h2>
<p>Each referee’s decision-making prowess is strongly predicated on their ability to read the game. They need to “feel” situations as they dynamically unfold with respect to players’ actions, movements and tensions.</p>
<p>Refs need to internally interpret, process and recall important variables and situations and to then blend these into accurate, constructive decisions that affect a given action or outcome both now and into the future of the game.</p>
<h2>5. Collectively attuned</h2>
<p>The lead and assistant refs in a Grand Final know their roles individually and collectively. On match day, they are tightly woven, well-attuned to each others nuances and thoughts.</p>
<p>Their thinking in action also imperceptibly defines and shapes a tone and rhythm for how the game unfolds.</p>
<p>But remember, they constantly formulate these actions in the context of the whole, never as individuals, but rather as part of the overall fabric of the game. </p>
<h2>6. Refereeing is hard work</h2>
<p>NRL referees run about <a href="https://playnrl.com/referee/referee-latest-news/the-science-of-officiating/">8.2km per game</a>. They consistently manage around <a href="https://theconversation.com/split-second-decisions-with-little-praise-so-what-does-it-take-to-ref-a-game-of-nrl-57553">282 rucks and 36 kicks in play</a>.</p>
<p>They also spend a <a href="https://theconversation.com/split-second-decisions-with-little-praise-so-what-does-it-take-to-ref-a-game-of-nrl-57553">staggering 31% of their game time</a> in high anaerobic heart rate sectors of 170 beats per minute (BPM) or above.</p>
<p>At the same time, referees are dynamically adjusting their field positions to continually remain alongside the play, all while making decisions at speed.</p>
<p>When was the last time you ran this far while also completing several intermittent sprint efforts, and making mentally taxing decisions all the while?</p>
<h2>7. They love the game</h2>
<p>Referees are passionate about rugby league. Many played the game as juniors, while others have family members involved. </p>
<p>They also love the challenge and excitement of league and the camaraderie that comes with such a high-profile sport.</p>
<p>But referees are expected to look serious, lack personality and ignore the distractions from both participants and spectators. </p>
<p>Remember, they are not permitted to publicly express their support, or otherwise, for particular teams or results, or provide insights into how they feel about their sport.</p>
<h2>Be gentle</h2>
<p>So, remember that referees are just people – albeit people who are extremely driven, focused, energetic athletes who are strongly anchored to performing the perfect game. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/whether-teams-win-or-lose-sporting-events-lead-to-spikes-in-violence-against-women-and-children-99686">Whether teams win or lose, sporting events lead to spikes in violence against women and children</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>They work as hard as elite players, both physically and mentally, to store and retrieve rules, learn new rules, learn every player’s name, stay fit, and make correct decisions at lightning speed.</p>
<p>Remember too that on Grand Final Day, most fans’ satisfactions are often driven by how well their team performs – which means it is often easier (and more acceptable) to ignore the loss if it can be blamed on the referees, rather than your own team’s play.</p>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/103770/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Kath O'Brien does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It’s not easy being a ref. Everyone’s your critic, and you have to run more than 8km each match to keep up with the play.Dr Kath O'Brien, PhD Candidate - School of Human Movement & Nutrition Sciences, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/664852016-10-04T07:17:37Z2016-10-04T07:17:37ZAFL and NRL grand final TV ratings show codes still rely on their traditional heartlands<p>With the AFL and NRL grand finals now played over the same weekend, there’s never been greater scrutiny in comparing the television ratings of these two sport spectacles. While the on-field football contests were both highly combative, the off-field battle between these two winter football codes is arguably just as competitive.</p>
<p>These off-field battles can be measured with metrics such as attendances, memberships, fan numbers and television ratings; all of these critical in maintaining each league’s place in Australian culture. Television ratings are particularly vital: they underpin the <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/business/media-and-marketing/nrl-inks-18-billion-record-tv-rights-deal-20151126-gl8nvg.html">multi-billion dollar price tags</a> placed on each code’s broadcast rights. This has a flow-on effect in terms of <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/media/football-fever-will-cost-advertisers-more/news-story/69f40e2deb23b3e1c68c0ded4b5f2810">how much advertisers pay during sport telecasts</a>. </p>
<p>This season offers an unusual opportunity to compare television ratings, given the similar regional blend of teams in the finals. In each game, a local underdog (Western Bulldogs and Cronulla Sharks) played off against an interstate expansion club (Sydney Swans and Melbourne Storm). </p>
<p>While the aggregated ratings figures are well reported, <a href="http://www.afr.com/business/media-and-marketing/tv/bulldogs-and-sharks-fairy-tales-deliver-for-seven-and-nine-20161002-grtgxi">with the AFL generating a national average audience of 4.1 million and NRL 3.7 million</a>, considerably more information about the codes can be inferred from the television ratings data that sits beneath this top-line figure. </p>
<h2>The battle between different codes</h2>
<p>The AFL has placed strategic and financial investment <a href="http://search.informit.com.au/browsePublication;isbn=9780522853667;res=IELHSS">in expanding its game into the northern markets of NSW and Queensland</a>.</p>
<p>As early as 1984, following the establishment of an independent commission, the Victorian Football League produced a strategic plan in which “a programme of national expansion” was one of four key pillars. </p>
<p>This is unsurprising considering current figures; these two northern states not only account for <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/3101.0">53% of the population</a>, but are responsible for <a href="http://www.thinktv.com.au/SiteMedia/W3SVC371/Uploads/Documents/Free_TV_Advertising_Revenue_Figures_Jul_to_Dec_2015.pdf">57% of advertising spend on free-to-air television (FTA)</a>.</p>
<p>In addition to this, Sydney is the single largest media market in the country, accounting for 29% of advertising expenditure within Australia (Melbourne is 21%). This distribution of advertising spend between the northern and southern markets explains why the NRL is able to achieve comparable broadcast rights despite the perception of it being a sport that has its hubs in just two states. </p>
<p>Despite the more progressive expansion program of the AFL, whose branding and marketing communications is more focused toward being <a href="http://www.afl.com.au/australiasgame">“Australia’s game”</a>, the distribution of audience across Australia during the 2016 final confirms that both leagues still rely heavily on heartland markets. Specifically, the AFL derived 70% of its metropolitan audience from heartland markets (Melbourne, Adelaide, Perth) while the NRL similarly derived 67% of its audience from Sydney and Brisbane. </p>
<p>The audience share of each market during the finals (average audience divided by population) illustrates that the AFL have indeed made stronger in-roads into the northern markets, although considerable work remains before either game has an even distribution of viewers.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/140228/original/image-20161004-20196-3is2qe.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/140228/original/image-20161004-20196-3is2qe.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/140228/original/image-20161004-20196-3is2qe.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/140228/original/image-20161004-20196-3is2qe.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/140228/original/image-20161004-20196-3is2qe.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/140228/original/image-20161004-20196-3is2qe.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/140228/original/image-20161004-20196-3is2qe.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Figure 1: Average audience share by market and code.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A sign for optimism within NRL headquarters would be that more Melbournians tuned into the NRL final to watch their team (609,000, 12.2% share) compared to Sydney and the AFL grand final (534,000, 10.7% share). However, analysis of ratings suggests that the value of grand final appearances, in terms off promoting the game in expansion markets, is diminishing. </p>
<p>In the case of the Sydney Swans, its local audience in Sydney for 2016 grand final was in fact the lowest of the five grand finals it has featured in since 2005. Similarly, the Melbourne Storm’s audience was the second lowest of the six it has featured in since 2006. </p>
<h2>How engaged are viewers?</h2>
<p>By considering the <a href="http://www.oztam.com.au/termsanddefinitions.aspx">reach of a telecast</a> (the cumulative number of unique viewers who have seen at least one minute of the program), it is possible to calculate the loyalty of an audience. When we look at this for the grand finals, there are significant differences between the codes and across markets. </p>
<p>The AFL appears to have a clear advantage in keeping its fans engaged. The average metropolitan viewer watched 102 of the 160 minute game telecast (64%) while the average NRL viewer watched 67 of the 120 minute game telecast (56%). </p>
<p>These differences however become much larger for the NRL across markets. In Sydney and Brisbane, viewers watched an average 64% of the telecast compared to only 44% in Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth. Therefore, the NRL not only has a smaller audience in these markets overall, but also a less engaged audience. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/140224/original/image-20161004-20217-24zvjy.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/140224/original/image-20161004-20217-24zvjy.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=295&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/140224/original/image-20161004-20217-24zvjy.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=295&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/140224/original/image-20161004-20217-24zvjy.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=295&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/140224/original/image-20161004-20217-24zvjy.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/140224/original/image-20161004-20217-24zvjy.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/140224/original/image-20161004-20217-24zvjy.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Figure 2: Average % of telecast watched by market and code.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Free-to-air broadcasters still have large audiences for the grand finals of both codes. Indeed, the ability to achieve such ratings within one weekend is perhaps the ultimate testament to Australia’s sporting culture. </p>
<p>Despite these audiences, both codes remain reliant on their traditional heartland. While the AFL certainly appears to have made strong in-roads, developing a fully engaged national broadcast audience in non-traditional areas remains a generational challenge.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/66485/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hunter Fujak does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>TV ratings for the NRL and AFL grand finals show its still a challenge to engage a national broadcast audience that covers non-traditional areas.Hunter Fujak, PhD candidate, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/550372016-03-02T19:02:41Z2016-03-02T19:02:41ZThe NRL kicks off, but do you have to lose a final before you win a final?<p>As the 2016 NRL season gets underway, all eyes will be on the North Queensland Cowboys to see if they can repeat their premiership win in last year’s grand final.</p>
<p>But winning successive premierships in contact sports is not about merely maintaining your current standard, or expecting that your opposition won’t improve from the previous year.</p>
<p>To have a real shot at back-to-back titles, you have to be prepared to get better in all areas of performance. </p>
<p>Let me explain.</p>
<p>There are a couple of rusted-on misconceptions we hear about premiership hangovers, the elusive chase for a “dynasty” and that old pearler: having to lose a grand final to win one.</p>
<p>Crunching the data, it appears that improving your points difference – the difference between total points scored (attack) and the points scored against (defence) – is the most surefire way for a premiership team to climb the podium for a second year in a row.</p>
<h2>Back to back wins</h2>
<p>The spark that created my interest in this topic was the absence of back-to-back NRL premierships since 1992-93 when the <a href="http://www.broncos.com.au/about/records.html">Brisbane Broncos completed the feat</a> (ignoring the Super League issue in 1997).</p>
<p>That’s so long ago that the competition was then known as the New South Wales Rugby League, not even the Australian Rugby League.</p>
<p>It’s before Darren Lockyer – the Broncos most-capped player – broke into first grade. The ex-skipper’s career came and went without ever witnessing a back-to-back win by any NRL team.</p>
<p>But why has no rugby league team been able to achieve this feat in more than 20 years? What I found when I analysed all the rugby league premiers since 1992 was that the winning teams averaged an 8% drop in points scored the following season.</p>
<p>At the same time, their defence suffered even more.</p>
<p>On average, the reigning premiers conceded 12% more points the following year, highlighted by the Melbourne Storm of 2000, who let through 137 points more than the previous season.</p>
<iframe src="https://charts.datawrapper.de/wRYXq/index.html" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" webkitallowfullscreen="webkitallowfullscreen" mozallowfullscreen="mozallowfullscreen" oallowfullscreen="oallowfullscreen" msallowfullscreen="msallowfullscreen" width="100%" height="800"></iframe>
<p>When you look at total points difference, we see a very clear red flag.
Premiership teams suffer a 43% reduction in points difference on average the following year.</p>
<p>Some premier winners may get marginally better in either attack or defence, but overall they tend to get a lot worse at a combination of the two.</p>
<p>If the Cowboys want to create history and win back-to-back premierships they will need to make sure they don’t just improve their attack or defence, they need to get better at both.</p>
<h2>Across the codes</h2>
<p>While the NRL has been devoid of successive premierships since 1992-93, we’ve seen a number in other contact leagues such as AFL, Super Rugby and NFL.</p>
<p>We’ve even witnessed a couple of “three-peats” – where the same team wins three premierships in a row – something that hasn’t happened in NRL land since Parramatta’s glory years of 1981-1983.</p>
<p>What I noticed when I analysed the back-to-back champions in AFL, Super Rugby and NFL was that the overwhelming majority of teams improved their overall points difference in order to win a second or third crown.</p>
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<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/xFGX1/3/" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" webkitallowfullscreen="webkitallowfullscreen" mozallowfullscreen="mozallowfullscreen" oallowfullscreen="oallowfullscreen" msallowfullscreen="msallowfullscreen" width="100%" height="350"></iframe>
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/u5DFZ/3/" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" webkitallowfullscreen="webkitallowfullscreen" mozallowfullscreen="mozallowfullscreen" oallowfullscreen="oallowfullscreen" msallowfullscreen="msallowfullscreen" width="100%" height="250"></iframe>
<p>So across these three codes, a successful premiership defence was marked by an improvement in points difference in 11 of 13 cases.</p>
<h2>That old wives’ tale</h2>
<p>When an athlete is crumpled on the ground after the full-time siren in a losing grand final, it’s difficult to know what to say.</p>
<p>If you want to somehow salvage something positive from the experience, there’s little doubt you’ll refer to <a href="http://www.footyalmanac.com.au/youve-gotta-lose-one-to-win-one/">that old chestnut</a>: “You have to lose one to win one.”</p>
<p>Personally, I’d like to see what happened to the last person who said that to former coach Brian Smith, a talented tactician who never had much luck when it came to the big dance.</p>
<p>Smith coached grand-final losing teams in 1992, 1993, 2001 and 2010, also losing a Challenge Cup final in England in 1996.</p>
<p>If you look at the NRL over the past 24 years, only six teams have lost a grand final and then made amends within a two-year period (even that could be considered a little generous).</p>
<p>So if the saying only rings true 25% of the time, maybe we should be thinking up another way to console people after they finish runners-up.</p>
<p>Look across the other codes previously mentioned and only six of 24 teams in AFL have lost a grand final and then won one within two years.</p>
<p>In Super Rugby, the figure is three of 20 champions, and in the NFL it’s a stone-cold statistic of one instance from 24 occasions.</p>
<h2>The supercoach factor</h2>
<p>Aside from whether the Cowboys have the ability to secure successive NRL titles, there’s another element to consider.</p>
<p>How will supercoach Wayne Bennett at the Broncos respond after his first loss as head coach in <a href="http://www.nrl.com/was-the-2015-grand-final-the-best-ever/tabid/10874/newsid/90439/default.aspx">last year’s grand final</a> against the Cowboys?</p>
<p>Bennett is revered for winning titles in 1992, 1993, 1997, 1998, 2000, 2006 and 2010 without being trumped in a grand final during that entire period.</p>
<p>But it’s amazing how quickly many have forgotten the old Brisbane Rugby League era, when the northern competition was filled with national and state representatives.</p>
<p>As coach of the Souths Magpies in 1984, Bennett suffered a thumping 42-8 grand final loss to Wynnum Manly.</p>
<p>The following year, against the same star-studded Wynnum team, Bennett turned the tables with a 10-8 win, a moment he has reflected on fondly several times.</p>
<p>So I guess the rule is that losing a grand final won’t necessarily win you one, but being Wayne Bennett may change that equation.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/55037/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The University of Queensland is the official university partner of the Brisbane Broncos. Vincent Kelly is currently co-supervising several undergraduate and postgraduate students at the Brisbane Broncos.</span></em></p>The North Queensland Cowboys will be hoping to win back-to-back grand finals in this year’s NRL. But what about that old saying on winning and losing?Vincent Kelly, Conjoint Associate Lecturer in Sport Science, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/482532015-10-01T06:55:23Z2015-10-01T06:55:23ZLoyalty in sport: who to support if your team is not in the weekend’s footy finals<p>Commentators are prone to describe every weekend as a huge one for sport, but this weekend qualifies as large, even by the inflated standards of the sports hyperbole peddlers.</p>
<p>On Saturday afternoon the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-09-30/hawks-and-eagles-grand-final-rematch-24-years-in-the-making/6816392">West Coast Eagles meet Hawthorn</a> in the AFL Grand Final at Melbourne’s MCG. The following evening sees Queensland teams the <a href="http://www.theroar.com.au/2015/09/30/nrl-grand-final-preview-brisbane-broncos-vs-north-queensland-cowboys/">Brisbane Broncos and the North Queensland Cowboys</a> enter Cockroach territory to play the NRL Grand Final at Sydney’s ANZ Stadium (better-known as home of the 2000 Olympics).</p>
<p>In between these events and on the other side of the world in the UK, the <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-union/rugby-world-cup/rugby-world-cup-2015-wallabies-prepare-for-england-thunder-at-twickenham-20150929-gjx14x.html">Wallabies play England</a> in the Rugby World Cup at Twickenham, a heart-stopping encounter in the much-touted <a href="http://www.rugby.com.au/News/NewsArticle/tabid/1699/ArticleID/16231/Rugby-World-Cup-Pool-A-What-the-Wallabies-are-up-against.aspx">Pool of Death</a>.</p>
<h2>A question of support</h2>
<p>The question for many television viewers – always the vast majority of spectators for major sports events – is how to negotiate this weekend of heavy-duty media sport.</p>
<p>For those who have no or little interest in Australian rules football, rugby league and rugby union, the choice is simple. A myriad cultural alternatives await, from the performing to the culinary arts, or binge TV comedy and drama or a visit to the movies.</p>
<p>For keen supporters of any of the four teams participating in the finals – out of a total of 36 that set out with so much forlorn hope last autumn – the right move is also fairly obvious.</p>
<p>But what of the large number of people who count themselves as fans of some or all of the sports involved, but do not support any of the teams in the games on view? </p>
<p>If they ignore the matches, they will lay bare one of sport’s enduring myths – that love of the game means a disinterested appreciation of sporting excellence rather than fixating on who wins.</p>
<p>The blunt reality is that, for most of us, sport is just not that interesting unless, like swinging voters in the world of politics, we have skin in the game.</p>
<p>So, the usually effortless process of supporting a team becomes the more complicated one of speedily picking one to champion in any given sports encounter.</p>
<h2>Your loyal support</h2>
<p>Choosing to support a sport team regularly is most straightforward when it is a matter of geography, kinship and culture.</p>
<p>In one-team towns (such as Brisbane, Newcastle or Geelong) it is a matter of civic pride. When there are multiple teams in close proximity it mostly comes down to suburb and family history (such as Collingwood and Manly).</p>
<p>These spatial markers tend to overlap with other cultural histories that confer on teams their particular collective character and reputation (for example, the common attachment of <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-league/south-sydney-rabbitohs/why-south-sydney-rabbitohs-will-be-forever-linked-with-aboriginal-australia-20141003-10pq8e.html">Indigenous Australians to the South Sydney Rabbitohs</a>).</p>
<p>But this “blood and soil” sport fandom is less viable in an increasingly mobile world where place of birth is left far behind, and may even be in another country. Residual club loyalties determined by origins might endure, but the lure to bond with new neighbours by supporting their teams can be strong.</p>
<p>In any case, football fandom is more flexible than is generally acknowledged. Most sport fans have a second, third and above team to support depending on who they like most, or least dislike. In Grand Finals and World Cups, support tends to swing behind those teams left standing.</p>
<h2>Old rivalries</h2>
<p>When teams with long historical rivalries are playing, the visceral urge to wish failure on the principal enemy should not be underestimated. It may even provide a perverse incentive to watch in the hope of some serious schadenfreude.</p>
<p>Sport marketeers are alive to this flexible sport fandom. For example, during this year’s AFC Asian Cup, Australia-based fans were encouraged to <a href="http://adoptateam.com.au/">adopt other teams</a> when they were not playing against the host nation’s Socceroos.</p>
<figure>
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</figure>
<p>Sport fans themselves are adept at negotiating their various loyalties, as I have discovered when researching <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14660970.2014.963315">transnational sporting affiliations</a> in Greater Western Sydney.</p>
<p>For most of those who will watch the Australia versus England game in the Rugby World Cup on early Sunday morning, the catch-cry “Anyone but England” – many transplanted Poms excepted – will apply.</p>
<p>But their emotional decision-making will be more complex if, for example, teams of fellow-Pacific Islanders such as Samoa, Tonga and Fiji are playing, or for those of Irish descent who are known to sing “Oh Danny Boy” in the twilight hours.</p>
<p>The question of sporting loyalty to a person’s adopted nation was <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2004/jan/08/britishidentity.race">famously raised by Norman Tebbit</a>, a former minister in the UK’s Thatcher era, when he said back in 1990:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>A large proportion of Britain’s Asian population fail to pass the cricket test. Which side do they cheer for? It’s an interesting test. Are you still harking back to where you came from or where you are?</p>
</blockquote>
<p>It is a test that many Australian citizens and residents of diverse backgrounds would be happy to fail as the Rugby World Cup unfolds – not least those with close ties across the Tasman.</p>
<p>So, what advice can be offered to the discerning TV sport consumer this weekend? Your options are any or all of the following: </p>
<ul>
<li>do anything but watch the games</li>
<li>avidly support your participating team</li>
<li>watch anyway because you love the sport uncontaminated by partisanship</li>
<li>pick the teams you most or least loathe and watch with intense or casual interest.</li>
</ul>
<p>May the most appealing cultural selection win.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/48253/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Rowe receives funding from the Australian Research Council for the Discovery Projects 'A Nation of "Good Sports"? Cultural Citizenship and Sport in Contemporary Australia' (DP130104502) and 'Australian Cultural Fields: National and Transnational Dynamics' (DP140101970), and for the Linkage Project 'Recalibrating Culture: Production, Consumption, Policy' (LP130100253).</span></em></p>Which team you support in sport can depend on many things. But who should you barrack for in this packed weekend of sport if none of your favoured teams are in any of the games?David Rowe, Professor of Cultural Research, Institute for Culture and Society, Western Sydney UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/483012015-10-01T02:20:21Z2015-10-01T02:20:21ZWho has the edge as the Broncos face the Cowboys in the 2015 NRL Grand Final?<p>Will it be the Brisbane Broncos or the North Queensland Cowboys who are crowned as 2015 National Rugby League (NRL) Premiers after Sunday evening’s Grand Final?</p>
<p>Whatever the result, this will be a historic Grand Final as it’s the first ever contested <a href="http://www.nrl.com/cowboys-lock-in-queensland-grand-final/tabid/10874/newsid/90153/default.aspx">between two teams from Queensland</a>.</p>
<p>The match-up underlines an era of dominance from the Sunshine State, coming at a time when Queensland has defeated New South Wales in <a href="http://www.nrl.com/queensland-clinch-2015-origin-series/tabid/10874/newsid/87758/default.aspx">nine of the last ten</a> State of Origin series.</p>
<p>That’s not a bad effort considering only three of the NRL’s 16 clubs hail from Queensland, compared to the ten from New South Wales.</p>
<h2>State of familiarity</h2>
<p>The Broncos and the Cowboys have much in common. Between them, they provide around a third of the first choice Australian Kangaroos squad and nine of the first choice 17 players for this year’s victorious Queensland State of Origin side.</p>
<p>Cowboys halfback <a href="http://www.nrl.com/telstrapremiership/playerstats/playerprofile/tabid/10898/clubid/8/playerid/371/seasonid/43/default.aspx">Johnathan Thurston</a> was the top point scorer this State of Origin series. Broncos lock <a href="http://www.nrl.com/telstrapremiership/playerstats/playerprofile/tabid/10898/clubid/1/playerid/266/seasonid/43/default.aspx">Corey Parker</a> was named <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-league/state-of-origin/state-of-origin-iii-corey-parker-named-player-of-2015-series-20150708-gi83fy.html">Player of the Series</a>.</p>
<p>The Grand Final won’t even be the first time these sides have met in this year’s finals series, with Brisbane squeezing out a narrow <a href="http://www.nrl.com/broncos-win-thrilling-queensland-derby/tabid/10874/newsid/89746/default.aspx">16-12 victory</a> over the Cowboys in Week One last month.</p>
<p>Can anything be read into the result of that earlier game and the subsequent paths that the two teams have had to navigate to qualify for Sunday’s decider?</p>
<h2>In to the finals</h2>
<p>In the <a href="http://www.nrl.com/NRLHQ/ReferenceCentre/FinalsSystemExplained/tabid/10635/Default.aspx">NRL finals system</a>, teams finishing in the top four places in the regular season play in Week One of the finals for the right to earn a bye-week straight through to a Week Three Preliminary Final.</p>
<p>The losing sides from Week One have a second chance of qualifying for a Preliminary Final by playing off in Week Two against one of the sides who finished between fifth and eighth in the regular season, and who won in Week One (see diagram, below).</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/96788/original/image-20150930-5804-1k6i3hw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/96788/original/image-20150930-5804-1k6i3hw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/96788/original/image-20150930-5804-1k6i3hw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=310&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/96788/original/image-20150930-5804-1k6i3hw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=310&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/96788/original/image-20150930-5804-1k6i3hw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=310&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/96788/original/image-20150930-5804-1k6i3hw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/96788/original/image-20150930-5804-1k6i3hw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/96788/original/image-20150930-5804-1k6i3hw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Diagram of NRL finals system and 2015 results. Unbroken arrows show the progression of winning teams. Dashed arrows show the progression of the two losing sides not immediately eliminated. Numbers in parentheses indicate teams’ final ladder positions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Stephen Woodcock</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Some believe that <a href="http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/sport/nrl/resting-players-can-blur-the-lines-of-integrity-of-our-game-writes-paul-kent/story-fnp0lyn3-1227508275879">earning a bye-week</a> is a huge advantage to a team’s chances of success – aching bodies can heal and additional time is available for preparing for the Preliminary Final. </p>
<p>Others argue that <a href="http://www.theroar.com.au/2015/09/25/fridaynrl-finals-preview-melbourne-storm-vs-north-queensland-cowboys/">momentum is key</a> at the business end of the season and that a two week gap without playing can be detrimental to a team’s Premiership aspirations. </p>
<h2>Is a game as good as a rest?</h2>
<p>But what does recent history suggest about the possible benefits of a team earning a week’s rest?</p>
<p>Each year, both of the Preliminary Finals are played between one side coming off a bye-week and one side that has played in both previous weeks of the finals. Looking at the results from the last few years it is difficult, at least at first glance, to believe that there is any major benefit of earning the bye-week.</p>
<p>Of the 24 Preliminary Finals played since 2004, 13 have been won by the side coming off a bye-week and 11 have been won by the side coming off back-to-back finals games. From this, it seems reasonable to argue that no major advantage is won or lost by qualifying directly to the Preliminary Final from Week One.</p>
<p>However, digging a little deeper into the NRL dataset reveals that every single NRL Grand Final since 2007 has been won by a side that earned the right to sit out Week Two of the finals. During that period, only twice have both finalists come off a bye-week. In other words, the last six sides to reach the Grand Final without a bye-week have come away empty handed.</p>
<p>The reasons for this are unclear. It could simply be a statistical quirk arising in such a small dataset or perhaps a sign that teams are more likely to be <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-league/league-news/nrl-finals-2015-aidan-guerra-says-sydney-roosters-wont-suffer-fatigue-20150914-gjmeg6.html">carrying injuries or fatigue</a> into the Grand Final after three straight weeks of finals action.</p>
<p>Whatever the reason, recent history certainly does not bode well for the Cowboys’ chances this weekend.</p>
<h2>The Dally M Medal ‘curse’</h2>
<p>The further bad news for Cowboys is the success of their superstar halfback Johnathan Thurston at <a href="http://www.foxsports.com.au/nrl/nrl-premiership/johnathan-thurston-wins-2015-dally-m-medal-how-jt-made-history/story-e6frf3rc-1227548071853">this year’s Dally M Medal awards</a>. Will he now fall foul of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-09-29/johnathan-thurston-dally-m-nrl-grand-final-curse/6812052">the Dally M curse</a>, again?</p>
<p>Since 2004, six players have collected the game’s highest individual honour a few days before appearing in the Grand Final. Of these, only one – <a href="http://www.foxsports.com.au/breaking-news/matt-orford-wins-dally-m/story-e6frf33c-1111117437346">Manly’s Matt Orford in 2008</a> – has gone on to add a Premiership ring. </p>
<p>One of the five unlucky medallists was Thurston himself back in 2005. A few days after collecting the first of his record four Dally Ms, his North Queensland side were comfortably beaten by the Wests Tigers in that year’s decider.</p>
<p>Recent history doesn’t provide much encouragement for the supporters of teams that have already played three finals games before the Grand Final. </p>
<p>Perhaps this is the year for historical trends to be broken given it’s the first all-Queensland affair. A few days ago, no player had won four Dally M Medals so Johnathan Thurston rewrote recent history in that regard.</p>
<p>I’m sure many people in and around Townsville will be hoping that recent history can again be rewritten for a maiden North Queensland Cowboys NRL Premiership.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/48301/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen Woodcock does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Cowboys will have to deal with more than just the Dally M “curse” if they’re to beat the Broncos in this weekend’s all Queensland NRL Grand Final.Stephen Woodcock, Senior Lecturer in Mathematics, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/471902015-09-10T20:08:40Z2015-09-10T20:08:40ZCan we predict the winner of the 2015 NRL grand final?<p>The <a href="http://www.roosters.com.au/">Sydney Roosters</a> head into the National Rugby League (<a href="http://www.nrl.com/">NRL</a>) finals close to unbackable favourites to win the October grand final. But my detailed analysis of the past 12 premiers shows that your money may be better kept in your pocket for now.</p>
<p>If Roosters coach <a href="http://www.roosters.com.au/team/profiles/trent_robinson.html">Trent Robinson</a>’s men are to make good on expectation, they will have to overcome serious shortfalls in statistical categories that history tells us are vital.</p>
<p>I’ve looked at all eight finals teams across 27 key performance indicators. These include the average age of the team, the average number of NRL games, the number of state and international players and even the experience of the coach. </p>
<p>The Roosters are above average in only five of these, despite what their <a href="http://www.oddschecker.com.au/rugby-league/nrl/grand-final-winner">A$2.75 betting odds</a> for the title may have you believing.</p>
<p>Compare this to the dark horse of the competition, <a href="https://www.melbournestorm.com.au/">Melbourne Storm</a>, which ranks above average in 18 of my 27 statistical categories.</p>
<p>These are stats based on 12 years of history – unlike other stats such as possession percentages, missed tackles or metres gained, all of which can fluctuate wildly from one week to the next. While those performance keys can be overcome with a concerted team effort on the day, it takes much more to compensate for shortfalls in the area of experience.</p>
<p>One glaring statistic relates to what we commonly refer to nowadays as the <a href="http://www.theroar.com.au/2014/07/17/how-important-is-the-spine-in-modern-rugby-league/">spine of the team</a> – the key directional and playmaking positions of hooker, halfback, five-eighth and fullback.</p>
<p>Over the past 12 seasons, premiership-winning teams have an average of 513 games of NRL experience between the players in these pivotal roles.</p>
<p>The Roosters spine, consisting of <a href="http://www.roosters.com.au/team/profiles/jake_friend.html">Jake Friend</a>, <a href="http://www.roosters.com.au/team/profiles/jackson_hastings.html">Jackson Hastings</a>, <a href="http://www.roosters.com.au/team/profiles/james_maloney.html">James Maloney</a> and <a href="http://www.roosters.com.au/team/profiles/roger_tuivasa_sheck.html">Roger Tuivasa-Scheck</a>, has 412 games worth of experience. In comparison, the spine of the Storm has 660 games in the NRL, while the Broncos and Sharks also hover around the 600-game mark.</p>
<p>Of course, this could all change if <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/injured-rooster-mitchell-pearce-aiming-for-week-one-of-the-finals/story-e6frfkp9-1227503976403">injured Roosters half</a> <a href="http://www.roosters.com.au/team/profiles/mitchell_pearce.html">Mitchell Pearce</a> comes back into calculations later in the finals, but for this week at least, it’s certainly food for thought.</p>
<h2>Age of players</h2>
<p>Much debate exists over the perfect composition of a squad, based on age. How many old heads is too many? And do fresh young legs need a dollop of maturity to help steer them in the right direction?</p>
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<p>Analysis of premiership squads from 2003 onwards shows the ideal number of players aged 18 to 21 is five, the bulk of the squad (average of 11 players) should be 22 to 25, you need seven players aged 26 to 29 and two more aged 30 to 33.</p>
<p>Only <a href="http://www.seaeagles.com.au/">Manly</a> in 2008 and the <a href="http://www.rabbitohs.com.au/">Rabbitohs</a> in 2014 won a premiership with a player older than 34 in their squad, and they were some pretty exceptional blokes in Steve Menzies and Lote Tuqiri.</p>
<p>In 2015 the club that bests fits the age-distribution model is the <a href="http://www.bulldogs.com.au/">Bulldogs</a>. The Dogs also come out favourably if you do a more simplistic split and say that grand final-winning teams average 10 players aged 25 and younger and seven players aged 26 and over.</p>
<p>In this regard, the Storm and Rabbitohs also come up looking good, while the <a href="http://www.sharks.com.au/">Sharks</a> are a definite worry. Sharks captain <a href="http://www.sharks.com.au/team/profiles/paul-gallen.html">Paul Gallen</a> and his charges boast a squad with six players over the age of 30 and an average age of 27 years and 307 days, the oldest of any team left in the finals.</p>
<p>Across the past dozen years the ideal average age is 25 years and 107 days.</p>
<p>An interesting one is the <a href="http://www.cowboys.com.au/">Cowboys</a>, who despite a swift, attacking reputation have an average age of 26 years and 288 days and may have missed their premiership window.</p>
<p>Should the North Queenslanders raise the trophy, they will be the oldest team to do so in more than a decade.</p>
<h2>Experience</h2>
<p>Age is not everything of course and there is a difference between the date on a birth certificate and the number of NRL games played.</p>
<p>The late, great Ray Stehr had played 10 seasons of first grade when he was 26, the same point in life at which Manly’s Brenton Lawrence made his debut.</p>
<p>My analysis measured 12 categories concerning experience, with a key result being that the average number of NRL games for premiership teams from 2003 to 2014 was 86.5 per player.</p>
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<p>Again there are a few red flags here for the Roosters, who have an average experience of just 75 games per player and no player with more than 200 games experience.</p>
<p>I wouldn’t say experience is everything, however, with one finding being that premiership squads over the past 12 years have fielded an average of six players with fewer than 25 games under their belt.</p>
<p>Having two or three players with more than 200 games experience seems to be a trigger for success, although the Storm of 2012 were an exception with five players over that mark.</p>
<p>Not surprisingly, quality of experience has a big bearing. Winning teams between 2003 to 2014 averaged four State of Origin players in their ranks and 7.5 internationals in total.</p>
<p>The only team that fulfils both these criteria in 2015 is Melbourne.</p>
<h2>The all-important spine</h2>
<p>As mentioned earlier, the players with numbers 9, 7, 6 and 1 on the backs of their jerseys have been shown to be highly influential in premiership outcomes.</p>
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<p>The average number of games played by a hooker at the time of winning a premiership in the last 12 years was 123, the average for a premiership halfback was 134, the average for a five-eighth was 104 and the average for fullback was 153.</p>
<p>No team fits this distribution perfectly, with the closest being the Broncos quartet of <a href="http://www.broncos.com.au/team/profiles/andrew-mccullough.html">Andrew McCullough</a> (172 games), <a href="http://www.broncos.com.au/team/profiles/ben-hunt.html">Ben Hunt</a> (138), <a href="http://www.broncos.com.au/team/profiles/anthony_milford.html">Anthony Milford</a> (66) and <a href="http://www.broncos.com.au/team/profiles/darius_boyd.html">Darius Boyd</a> (220).</p>
<p>Melbourne has the most total games experience in their spine, but this is heavily influenced by two players in <a href="https://www.melbournestorm.com.au/team/profiles/cameron-smith.html">Cameron Smith</a> (304) and <a href="https://www.melbournestorm.com.au/team/profiles/cooper-cronk.html">Cooper Cronk</a> (269). <a href="https://www.melbournestorm.com.au/team/profiles/cameron_munster.html">Cameron Munster</a> and <a href="https://www.melbournestorm.com.au/team/profiles/blake_green.html">Blake Green</a> are considerably less experienced.</p>
<h2>Influence of the coach</h2>
<p>While skewed by the Broncos’ <a href="http://www.broncos.com.au/team/profiles/wayne_bennett.html">Wayne Bennett</a>’s longevity as coach, the average number of seasons a coach has needed to be with a club before winning a premiership in recent times is six.</p>
<p>The average age of a premiership coach over the past 12 years has been 50. That might indicate bad news for young guns <a href="http://www.roosters.com.au/team/profiles/trent_robinson.html">Trent Robinson</a>, <a href="http://www.rabbitohs.com.au/team/profiles/michael-maguire.html">Michael Maguire</a> and <a href="http://www.cowboys.com.au/team/profiles/paul_green.html">Paul Green</a> if two of them hadn’t already won it!</p>
<p>Melbourne again comes out looking good when I cross-reference a broad range of coaching categories, mainly by the stability that coach <a href="https://www.melbournestorm.com.au/team/profiles/craig-bellamy.html">Craig Bellamy</a> has achieved in 13 successive years at the one club.</p>
<h2>Limitations in the analysis</h2>
<p>In any study like this, there are going to be anomalies that distort statistics week-to-week.</p>
<p>To prepare this report, I took into account all players who took the field in Round 25, which means the likes of Mitchell Pearce and Rabbitohs’ spearhead <a href="http://www.rabbitohs.com.au/team/profiles/greg-inglis.html">Greg Inglis</a> do not feature.</p>
<p>But we know teams named for this weekend could still change – someone could be suspended afterwards, or further players injured before the grand final. Some clubs also name larger squads than others.</p>
<p>In order to achieve precise statistics based on 17 players per team, I had to nominate a recent round for which all data was available.</p>
<p>By taking into account 27 categories, the objective is to create a broad picture that is not be distorted by the absence of a handful of players.</p>
<p>Based on this analysis my money would be on the Storm who come up trumps in more categories than any other team.</p>
<p>Regardless, we know that history exists to be bettered, and by the end of these finals we will have new numbers to define the competition’s leading performers.</p>
<p>It doesn’t hurt to speculate though, does it?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/47190/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The University of Queensland is the official university partner of the Brisbane Broncos. Vincent Kelly is currently co-supervising several undergraduate and postgraduate students at the Brisbane Broncos. </span></em></p>Is it age or experience that counts in the teams challenging for this years’s NRL Grand Final? Or do we need to look deeper into the game statistics?Vincent Kelly, Conjoint Associate Lecturer in Sport Science, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/323892014-10-02T20:11:15Z2014-10-02T20:11:15ZNumber crunching the odds on the NRL Grand Final<p>When the final siren sounds at Sydney’s Olympic Stadium on Sunday night either the <a href="http://www.rabbitohs.com.au/">South Sydney Rabbitohs</a> or <a href="http://www.bulldogs.com.au/">Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs</a> will be crowned as 2014 National Rugby League (NRL) Premiers. So who will win?</p>
<p>Souths have not appeared in a Grand Final since winning their 1971 premiership. This year represents the culmination of several years of steady progress since a tumultuous period including their exclusion from the competition and eventual private takeover spearheaded by actor Russell Crowe.</p>
<p>For the Bulldogs, their Grand Final appearance comes at the end of an up-and-down season, but is only two years removed from their last visit when they tripped at the final hurdle against the Melbourne Storm in 2012. </p>
<p>Finals Series are always a good time for clichés, hunches and sporting misconceptions to come to the fore. As both a lifelong rugby league supporter and an applied mathematician, I thought it would be a good time to step back from the usual hype, guesses and dubious “conventional wisdom”.</p>
<p>Instead, I thought I’d see what a brief analysis of how recent results compared to pre-match expectations might tell us about how Sunday’s game might pan out.</p>
<p>At this point, I should probably add the disclaimer that I am a member of the Bulldogs and will be at Sunday’s match casting anything but a neutral eye over proceedings.</p>
<h2>A look at the bookies</h2>
<p>Thanks to <a href="http://www.aussportsbetting.com/data/">Australia Sports Betting</a>, my starting point for analysis is historical data from bookmakers for all NRL games from 2009 to 2014 inclusive.</p>
<p>Bookies’ odds are a good measure of how each team is expected to perform. Before each game, betting agencies first run some prediction model of their own to decide upon a starting price and this is adjusted upwards or downwards depending on how much money is placed for or against each possible outcome.</p>
<p>As such, each final pre-match price is a balance between expert and popular opinion. The end result is generally an excellent predictor of future results. (Tom Waterhouse doesn’t get his slick ads, shiny dentistry and overpriced suits without at least being good at what he does.)</p>
<p>When I last checked, South Sydney were A$1.38 favourites and Canterbury were A$3.15 underdogs. In other words, the betting agencies think that there’s about a 70% chance of a Rabbitohs premiership and about a 30% chance of the Bulldogs taking home the crown.</p>
<p>In short, it’s looking good for the Rabbitohs.</p>
<p>So is there any hope for the Bulldogs? Well, sports journalists and ex-professionals love to tell us that “anything can happen in finals football”.</p>
<p>Aside from the obvious truism that yes, of course either side can win, the simple fact is that history tells us that finals games are in general more predictable than regular season games.</p>
<h2>Good for the favourites</h2>
<p>This might seem counter-intuitive given the gaps in quality should be much less; all teams involved finished in the top half of the ladder. Nonetheless, the simple facts are that, since the start of the 2009 season, the bookmakers’ favourite has won 38 of the 53 (72%) finals games played. Over the same period, the favourites won only 65% of regular season games.</p>
<p>Even more incredibly, the NRL Grand Final itself has been a bastion of predictability. You have to go back to 2004, when the Bulldogs upset the narrowly-favoured Sydney Roosters for the last time an underdog lifted the trophy.</p>
<p>Few sporting competitions in the world have such a long run without a surprising premier. The bookmakers have been correct for ten consecutive Grand Finals.
Again, it really doesn’t look good for the Bulldogs.</p>
<p>What about the regular season form? Well, that too points to the same outcome. No side has finished outside of the top four and gone on to win the Grand Final since 1995. With South Sydney’s third placed finish and the Bulldogs’ seventh placed finish, recent history is firmly on the Rabbitohs’ side.</p>
<p>Much has also been made about the NRL judiciary’s decision to <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-30/issac-luke-to-miss-south-sydney27s-nrl-grand-final-appearance-/5780472">suspend South Sydney hooker</a> Issac Luke for a dangerous throw of an opponent last week. Several experts have discussed how important he is to his side and how their chances of winning are diminished in his absence.</p>
<p>Recent data really does not support this viewpoint at all. Between 2007 and 2011, the side won only once from the nine games he missed (11% win rate) compared to 48 wins from the 101 games he played (47% win rate).</p>
<p>Since 2012, his presence or absence hasn’t seemed nearly as critical – this season they won 7 of the 11 games he missed (64% win rate). Like much often-quoted sports wisdom, this statement has seemingly lingered for longer than the data can supports its claims to be true.</p>
<h2>Any hope for the under Bulldogs?</h2>
<p>Is there any hope for the Bulldogs? To clutch at straws (and unreasonably small sample sizes), the data suggest that teams priced at over A$3 will win less than 25% of the time, yet this year’s finals series has already seen two such long-shots win out of three occasions, including Canterbury’s first week victory in Melbourne.</p>
<p>Furthermore, only once previously since 2005 have both the first and second ranked sides on the ladder – this year the Sydney Roosters and the Manly Sea Eagles – been watching the Grand Final. So maybe this year is different?</p>
<p>So that’s that. Rugby league sentimentalists, Hollywood royalty, the betting public and most of Redfern will be backing a long-awaited Rabbitohs premiership.</p>
<p>History and the recent dataset suggest that my wife and I have just spent A$300 which we can ill-afford on tickets for a pretty miserable Sunday evening for us.</p>
<p>As strange a note as it is to end on, I genuinely and sincerely hope that the trends in the dataset turn out to be utterly misleading and that most of this article is completely wrong. Go the Bulldogs!</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/32389/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen Woodcock is a season-ticketed member of the Bulldogs NRL team. He does not receive any funding from the club, rather is himself a paying member.</span></em></p>When the final siren sounds at Sydney’s Olympic Stadium on Sunday night either the South Sydney Rabbitohs or Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs will be crowned as 2014 National Rugby League (NRL) Premiers…Stephen Woodcock, Lecturer, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.