tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/omo-river-42640/articlesOmo River – The Conversation2019-09-15T08:38:41Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1228712019-09-15T08:38:41Z2019-09-15T08:38:41ZWhy Ethiopia’s showcase sugar projects face huge challenges<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292219/original/file-20190912-190016-1wfdtqx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Sunset over Omo River valley in southern Ethiopia. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/rod_waddington/22615287108">Flickr/Rod Waddington</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>If it’s completed, the <a href="https://www.ethiopiansugar.com/omo-kuraz-sugar-development-project/">Kuraz sugar project</a> in Ethiopia will be a mega-scheme unprecedented in size and processing capacity. The project sits on 100,000 hectares in the southwestern lowlands along the lower reaches of the Omo River. </p>
<p>Kuraz was the showcase project of the state-owned Ethiopian Sugar Corporation under the country’s first five-year <a href="https://theredddesk.org/sites/default/files/growth_and_transformation_plan.pdf">growth and transformation plan</a> launched nearly a decade ago. One of its central objectives was to meet increasing local demand for sugar. It also aimed to become a net exporter of sweeteners, and to create hundreds of thousands of jobs.</p>
<p>This was to be achieved through the development of large-scale irrigated sugarcane estates. But today, Kuraz is just one example of the disappointing results of a decade of state-led sugar industrialisation.</p>
<p>Across the country, several billion US dollars have been invested in new processors. Existing sugar estates have also been expanded. Yet, progress has been stuttering for years. This is illustrated by fluctuating industry <a href="https://gain.fas.usda.gov/Recent%20GAIN%20Publications/Government%20of%20Ethiopia%20to%20privatize%20all%20Sugar%20projects._Addis%20Ababa_Ethiopia_6-28-2019.pdf">output</a>. The planned cane cultivation of <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17531055.2016.1267602">Kuraz</a>, the largest of such ventures, has been reduced by 75,000 hectares. The number of processors has also been reduced from five to four, partly because of a costly redesign of waterworks. </p>
<p>The ambitious goal of exporting surplus production remains a distant reality – if it’s even possible at all. Employment creation, another central aspect of the government’s vision for the industry, has been particularly unsuccessful. </p>
<p>At the opening of Kuraz’s second processing factory out of four planned last year, prime minister Abiy Ahmed chose surprisingly optimistic <a href="https://www.ena.et/en/?p=3689">words</a>. He proclaimed that “problems seem to be alleviated” now. As it stands, the government’s proposed solution is <a href="https://www.thereporterethiopia.com/article/govt-initiates-modalities-privatize-sugar-projects">private investment</a> to proceed with Kuraz and the other state sugar projects in Tigray, Afar, Amhara, and Southern Nations regions. </p>
<p>But it’s debatable whether this is the best or most practical solution to harnessing the potential of Ethiopia’s sugar industry.</p>
<h2>Privatisation: profitable and desirable?</h2>
<p>The state corporation is overburdened with debt. It needs substantial capital to service outstanding loans and get the industry on track. The Commercial Bank of Ethiopia reportedly provided loans equivalent to more than $2 billion for expansion and modernisation projects. This puts the government in a tight spot: repayment was only <a href="https://www.thereporterethiopia.com/article/massive-state-loans-threaten-cbe">expected</a> once these schemes were finalised. </p>
<p>The latest <a href="https://www.ethiopia-insight.com/2019/08/01/omo-investors-wont-scrub-away-kurazs-sugary-stain/">estimates</a> refer to an additional $2 billion in outstanding external debt contracted by the corporation. Added to this are capital injections of unknown dimensions into the sugar industry from the sale of the 2014-Eurobond and the <a href="https://www.canr.msu.edu/oturn/OTuRN_Briefing_Note_1.pdf">Sugar Industry Development Fund</a>. </p>
<p>In view of this, divestment might seem a logical solution to escape the debt trap. But the government would also be compelled to revise earlier projections of return on investment and expected profits.</p>
<p>Following the official privatisation <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethiopia-privatisation/ethiopia-opens-up-telecoms-airline-to-private-foreign-investors-idUSKCN1J12JJ">announcements</a> in June last year, 30 potential bidders had <a href="https://www.ethiopiansugar.com/investment/">recorded interest</a> by January 2019. This confirms the agro-economic potential of several schemes but the central question on how develop a profitable and sustainable sugar industry remains unanswered.</p>
<h2>New stakeholders, old challenges</h2>
<p>Prospective investors have a tough task. They must be successful in an industry beset by technical challenges and incomplete planning. A vital first step is to identify all the root causes of operational failures. These include the failure to include and compensate local communities adequately. </p>
<p>A realistic look at the actual feasibility of projects will be crucial, too. These projects were designed and conceived in high spirits and with great optimism. A dose of reality is needed. The quality of waterworks for irrigation and incomplete feasibility studies might be a key limiting factor. </p>
<p>Only time will tell just how oversized the Kuraz processing plants are. A sufficient supply of cane is critical to ensure the processors run at full capacity. This much cane may simply not be available.</p>
<p>The price investors will be willing to pay for estates not operating at full capacity will mainly depend on the status of construction, quality of existing infrastructure, and cultivation potential. </p>
<p>But there are other factors potential buyers from the private sector will have to consider. These include land lease payments, export restrictions, and supply for domestic consumption. The sharing of tax and rent revenues between the federal and regional states is a burning issue and needs to be resolved before the privatisation of state-owned assets. </p>
<p>Finally, there are concerns about how Ethiopia will manage domestic sugar demand and decrease its import dependency – a primary reason for the government’s bet on sugar industrialisation. </p>
<h2>Reputational risks</h2>
<p>The challenges won’t stop there. Investors, especially in the lower Omo Valley, will be faced with a different, but equally critical issue: negative publicity and reputational risk. Academic <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13280-018-1139-3">studies</a> and reports by <a href="https://www.oaklandinstitute.org/sites/oaklandinstitute.org/files/ethiopia-tricked-gibe-dam-sugarcane-plantations.pdf">international rights groups</a> have repeatedly pointed to the negative effects on local people’s livelihoods stemming from defects in how Kuraz is being planned and implemented.</p>
<p>There can be no denying that Kuraz has so far failed on its “development promises” made to the indigenous local communities. Existing land users have also not been compensated, included or consulted adequately. How local conflict dynamics will evolve and if scarcity-induced migration threatens regional stability are important questions. </p>
<p>Sugarcane is a water-intensive crop. That increases the challenges for sustainable development. This is largely neglected in the official debates on the industry’s future trajectories. Chances are high that agricultural run-off, and effluent – liquid waste or sewage – from processing will seriously affect complex water systems. Agricultural run-off could include water from farm fields that contain fertilisers, pesticides, animal waste, or soil particles which enters and contaminates drinking water.</p>
<p>Increasing local acceptance of the project will require a novel approach towards local inclusion. It will also require substantial additional financial commitments by the government. More importantly, this needs the support and endorsement of new stakeholders from the private sector.</p>
<p>The successful operation of a scheme such as Kuraz is subject to more than capital and the solving of technical problems. From now on, the success of the sugar industry will be measured not only in economic terms but in how environmental and social costs will be reduced.</p>
<p><em>A <a href="https://www.ethiopia-insight.com/2019/08/01/omo-investors-wont-scrub-away-kurazs-sugary-stain/">longer version of this article</a> was published by Ethiopia Insight.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/122871/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Benedikt Kamski received funding for this research from Studienstiftung des deutschen Volkes (SddV), Arnold Bergstraesser-Institute (ABI), Omo-Turkana Research Network (OTuRN), Fritz Thyssen Foundation between 2013 and 2018.</span></em></p>Prospective investors have the task of turning round an industry beset by technical challenges and incomplete planningBenedikt Kamski, Post-doctoral researcher, Arnold-Bergstraesser-Institute (ABI), University of FreiburgLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1070702018-11-28T12:34:00Z2018-11-28T12:34:00Z‘World’s worst environmental disaster’ set to be repeated with controversial new dam in Africa<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246659/original/file-20181121-161633-1lwi7ai.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Damning development.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gilgel_Gibe_III_Dam#/media/File:Omo_Gibe_III,_Wolayita_3.jpg">Wikimedia Commons/Mimi Abebayehu</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Encompassing swathes of Ethiopia, South Sudan and Kenya, the Omo-Turkana Basin is one of the oldest landscapes in the world that is known to have been <a href="https://www.nature.com/news/2005/050214/full/news050214-10.html">inhabited by <em>Homo sapiens</em></a> and is now one of the world’s most extraordinary examples of ethnic diversity. In the lower Omo Valley alone, a varied history of cross-cultural encounters has played out to produce eight distinct ethnic groups, <a href="http://archaeopress.com/ArchaeopressShop/Public/download.asp?id=%7BCBFED3CF-1D64-427A-AE59-4AD3A69C0931">speaking many languages</a> from Afro-Asiatic to Nilo-Saharan.</p>
<p>In a cattle camp on the bank of the ancient Omo River a Mursi elder implored me to “tell our story so that others might know us before we are all dead in the desert”. Where the river ends in Lake Turkana, this sentiment was echoed by local fishermen: “You will find our bones in the desert.” The story of the Omo-Turkana Basin is now that of the Ethiopian state exploiting its periphery in the name of “development”, trampling on the human rights of its citizens in the process.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246660/original/file-20181121-161609-1dpqgzv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246660/original/file-20181121-161609-1dpqgzv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246660/original/file-20181121-161609-1dpqgzv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246660/original/file-20181121-161609-1dpqgzv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246660/original/file-20181121-161609-1dpqgzv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246660/original/file-20181121-161609-1dpqgzv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246660/original/file-20181121-161609-1dpqgzv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hamar children milk one of their family’s cattle.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">J. Dubosson</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The dam and the damned</h2>
<p>Over the past decade, the Ethiopian government has pushed ahead with a huge hydro-electric dam on the Omo, known as Gibe III. Without any meaningful consultation with the communities affected, the state has also appropriated grazing lands and freshwater, threatening their vital resources and local heritage. </p>
<p>All of this has happened despite the area gaining the status of a <a href="https://whc.unesco.org/en/list/17">UNESCO World Heritage Site</a> in 1980. As Richard Leakey, the Kenyan paleoanthropologist, conservationist and politician put it, “these happenings are profoundly disturbing”.</p>
<p>The completion of Gibe III, Africa’s tallest dam to date, has eliminated the annual flood and radically reduced the Omo’s flow, which produces <a href="http://www.mursi.org/pdf/copy3_of_pastoral-livelihoods.pdf">90% of Lake Turkana’s freshwater</a> input. In doing so, it has reduced sediments and nutrients critical for traditional agriculture, riverside pastures and fish habitat. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246661/original/file-20181121-161624-hctgks.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246661/original/file-20181121-161624-hctgks.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246661/original/file-20181121-161624-hctgks.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246661/original/file-20181121-161624-hctgks.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246661/original/file-20181121-161624-hctgks.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246661/original/file-20181121-161624-hctgks.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246661/original/file-20181121-161624-hctgks.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246661/original/file-20181121-161624-hctgks.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The former lake bed. What remains of the Aral Sea is heavily polluted.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">T. Clack</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Over 30% of the lake inflow will be diverted for commercial irrigation projects. The result could be a fall in lake level comparable to that of <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/resources/idt-a0c4856e-1019-4937-96fd-8714d70a48f7">Central Asia’s Aral Sea</a>, which has shrunk by over two thirds since the 1960s because of irrigation abstractions and which has been called “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2003/oct/29/sciencenews.theguardianlifesupplement">the world’s worst environmental disaster</a>”. To make way for the commercial plantations planned for the Omo Valley, tens of thousands of hectares of land will be expropriated and thousands of local people displaced.</p>
<h2>Development at any cost</h2>
<p>The need to see “development” as more than a simple matter of an increase in GDP is well established. In his seminal work, Development as Freedom, the Nobel Prize winning economist, Amartya Sen, demonstrated that sustainable development must be based on <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/development-as-freedom-9780192893307?lang=en&cc=nl">universal access to social and economic necessities</a> as well as political and civil rights. The many communities in the Omo-Turkana Basin have suffered a systematic curtailment of their most basic and essential rights. </p>
<p>International agreements which the Ethiopian government signed up to, such as the 1993 International Convenant on Civil and Political Rights and the International Covenant of Economic, Social and Cultural Rights require it to protect and promote the rights of minority cultures and ensure the “right of everyone to take part in cultural life”.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246665/original/file-20181121-161618-3f2boe.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246665/original/file-20181121-161618-3f2boe.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246665/original/file-20181121-161618-3f2boe.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246665/original/file-20181121-161618-3f2boe.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246665/original/file-20181121-161618-3f2boe.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246665/original/file-20181121-161618-3f2boe.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246665/original/file-20181121-161618-3f2boe.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Formerly the fourth largest lake in the world, the Aral Sea has reduced to around 10% of its size in the 1960s.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">T. Clack</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Since 1948, Ethiopia has also been signed up to the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide. Article II provides against the destruction of “a national, ethnical, racial or religious group”. Raphael Lemkin, who coined the word “genocide”, <a href="https://www.carnegiecouncil.org/publications/archive/dialogue/2_12/section_1/5139">famously defined</a> the specific need to protect against the “disintegration of the political and social institutions of culture, national feelings, religion, and the economic existence of national groups”.</p>
<p>It is difficult not to conclude that what we are seeing in the Omo is the wholesale disregard of these commitments by the Ethiopian government. Its development policies are not only transforming landscape and heritage but destroying complex systems of sustainable living that have endured for millennia. The huge injustice of all this is that the ecological costs will be borne by local communities while the profits will be enjoyed by central and international corporations. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, centuries of collective wisdom relating to livestock diversification, flood dependant cultivation and customary obligations and mechanisms of livestock exchange, will be made redundant.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246663/original/file-20181121-161621-1eedlzb.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246663/original/file-20181121-161621-1eedlzb.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246663/original/file-20181121-161621-1eedlzb.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=897&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246663/original/file-20181121-161621-1eedlzb.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=897&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246663/original/file-20181121-161621-1eedlzb.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=897&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246663/original/file-20181121-161621-1eedlzb.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1127&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246663/original/file-20181121-161621-1eedlzb.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1127&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246663/original/file-20181121-161621-1eedlzb.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1127&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Two Mursi warriors prepare for a ceremonial duel.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">T. Clack</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This is not to deny, of course, that development, in the sense defined by Sen, is a laudable and necessary enterprise. But we must also recognise that large-scale infrastructure projects are likely to have far reaching consequences for the lifestyles and cultural identities of those they displace. </p>
<p>Projects which set out to increase economic growth without regard for social justice and individual rights are not worthy of the name “development”. Development must benefit locals and for this to happen their voices must not only be heard but also given a central and determining role in any discussions about the future of their lands and livelihoods. </p>
<p>Both cradle and crucible of our species, the Omo-Turkana Basin is unique and precious. Its heritage and history, as well as responsibility for its future, are shared by us all.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/107070/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Timothy Clack has received funding for anthropological fieldwork in the Omo-Turkana area from British Academy, British Institute in Eastern Africa, Cambridge University, Christensen Fund and Oxford University.</span></em></p>When the Aral Sea dried up, it was called the “world’s worst environmental disaster”. We’re witnessing its equivalent in Africa.Timothy Clack, Lecturer in Archaeology and Anthropology, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/994582018-07-08T11:17:54Z2018-07-08T11:17:54ZHow Ethiopia and Kenya have put a world heritage site in danger<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/226447/original/file-20180706-122250-6cw417.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Central Island, the breeding ground of what was once the world’s largest population of Nile Crocodile</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sean Avery</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Lake Turkana is the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4Dy-vAhhHc">world’s largest</a> desert lake. Located in Kenya’s remote northern arid lands, it is the most saline of Africa’s great lakes, and its vast aquatic resources contribute to the livelihoods of <a href="https://www.irinnews.org/feature/2017/05/23/way-life-under-threat-kenya-lake-turkana-shrinks">over</a> 300,000 people, including pastoralists, fishermen and tourism operators. Its ecology supports <a href="http://www.kenyasafari.com/cradle-humankind-sibiloi.html">a host</a> of local and migratory bird and wildlife populations. </p>
<p>It’s also home to unique fossil and archaeological discoveries. In 1973, <a href="http://www.kenyasafari.com/cradle-humankind-sibiloi.html">Sibiloi National Park</a> was created on the north-eastern lakeshore to conserve these remarkable discoveries that <a href="http://www.kenyasafari.com/cradle-humankind-sibiloi.html">have contributed</a> so much to our understanding of human evolution. And in 1983 and 1985, the lake’s South and Central Islands were designated national parks because of their outstanding wildlife breeding habitats, notably for the Nile crocodile. </p>
<p>These three national parks were inscribed as a World Heritage Site in 1997 for their “geological and fossil records” and “diverse aquatic and terrestrial habitats”.</p>
<p><a href="https://whc.unesco.org/en/list/">There are</a> 1,092 UNESCO World Heritage sites in the world, five of which are within Kenya. Sites are selected for their outstanding cultural value, or outstanding natural value, or a combination of both assets. Once inscribed, the sites are protected according to local legislation and international treaties.</p>
<p>It would seem that this status would offer the lake good protection against major threats. But that’s not been the case. The lake’s national parks are now on the World Heritage “In Danger” list, a result of Ethiopia’s developments on the Omo river – which feeds the lake – and poor management of the parks by Kenya. </p>
<h2>Keeping heritage sites safe</h2>
<p>193 countries worldwide are party to the <a href="http://whc.unesco.org/en/statesparties">World Heritage Convention</a> that came into force in 1975. The aim is to protect globally outstanding cultural and natural sites, and conserve them for future generations. Both Kenya and Ethiopia are state parties to this Convention. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/226448/original/file-20180706-122265-av2lne.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/226448/original/file-20180706-122265-av2lne.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=287&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/226448/original/file-20180706-122265-av2lne.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=287&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/226448/original/file-20180706-122265-av2lne.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=287&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/226448/original/file-20180706-122265-av2lne.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/226448/original/file-20180706-122265-av2lne.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/226448/original/file-20180706-122265-av2lne.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Lake Turkana.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sean Avery</span></span>
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<p>Under the convention guidelines, state parties are obliged to submit reports every six years on each of their World Heritage sites. If a site comes under threat, the World Heritage Committee can initiate the agreed process of “reactive monitoring” – an independent mission to review and produce a report on the state of conservation of the site. If the site is found to be facing danger, the mission can recommend it be <a href="https://www.iucn.org/theme/world-heritage/natural-sites/danger-list">placed on</a> the “List of World Heritage in Danger”. </p>
<p>If this listing is decided upon, and if the danger can be remedied, the State Party can ask for help from the World Heritage Fund. But, if the site is irretrievably damaged, the Committee can decide to delete the site from the list altogether.</p>
<h2>Why the lake was put on the danger list</h2>
<p>The World Heritage Committee first <a href="http://whc.unesco.org/en/decisions/4411">expressed</a> strong concerns about the lake’s sustainability seven years ago. <a href="https://theconversation.com/fears-over-ethiopian-dams-costly-impact-on-environment-people-80757">Threats</a> were identified as the Gibe dams and irrigation plantation developments on Ethiopia’s Omo River. <a href="http://www.africanstudies.ox.ac.uk/sites/sias/files/documents/WhatFutureLakeTurkana-%20update.pdf">More than</a> 80% of the lake’s freshwater inflow is provided by the Omo River and so these projects affect the lake’s ecology. </p>
<p>The committee <a href="http://whc.unesco.org/en/decisions/4411">requested</a> that Ethiopia suspend construction works on the Gibe III dam and submit assessments on the dam and irrigation development plans. Ethiopia and Kenya were each requested to share their views, and in its report to the committee Kenya shared the same concerns. As a result a reactive monitoring mission was invited to Kenya.</p>
<p>Over the years – despite annual exchanges between the World Heritage Committee, Kenya and Ethiopia – Ethiopia <a href="http://whc.unesco.org/en/decisions/5023">has not</a> acted on the various requests issued by the Committee, continuing with development projects without conducting a strategic environmental assessment. The filling of Gibe III’s vast reservoir was completed in December 2016 and the full water demands and downstream effects of irrigation schemes are still not known. </p>
<p>Kenya too has been lax. It hasn’t implemented recommendations <a href="http://whc.unesco.org/en/decisions/6267">to deal with</a> poaching, illegal fishing, and livestock grazing in the Lake Turkana National Parks. </p>
<p>For the last couple of years the committee has expressed regrets, included notes, and made requests from both countries, but there have been no decisions in tackling the lake’s threats.</p>
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<p>In its most recent session, <a href="http://whc.unesco.org/en/soc/3676">the committee</a> warned that the Gibe III dam had already heavily disrupted the lake’s seasonal patterns, and that this would adversely affect the fish population and the livelihoods of local fishing communities. </p>
<p>As a result, it was declared that Lake Turkana National Parks’ outstanding universal values are in danger and it was decided that the site should be inscribed on the List of World Heritage in danger. </p>
<h2>Next steps</h2>
<p>The World Heritage Committee <a href="http://whc.unesco.org/en/soc/3676">has now requested</a> Kenya to invite a reactive monitoring mission to review what’s happened and to propose a way forward to remove the Lake Turkana National Parks from the “List of World Heritage in Danger”. </p>
<p>That mission would aim to develop a set of corrective measures in consultation with both Kenya and Ethiopia. If that mission takes place, its report will be reviewed at the Committee’s 43rd session in 2019.</p>
<p>The impact of the intervention might not amount to much. Warnings about the effects of Omo river developments were <a href="http://www.africanstudies.ox.ac.uk/what-future-lake-turkana">sounded</a> decades ago, and yet Gibe III is operational, and Gibe IV dam and irrigation scheme developments are progressing. Protests have seemingly been futile. </p>
<p>The lake inflow hydrology has already changed. That means that nutrient inflows and their distribution through the lake have also been affected. Changes in the lake’s ecological diversity will, in turn, affect the lake fisheries.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, the commendable efforts of bodies like the World Heritage Committee need to be sustained. The management of the Lake Turkana National Parks can certainly be improved. The county governments should be involved, and the World Heritage Fund can potentially assist. The entire lake will benefit as a result. </p>
<p>And there is still time for Ethiopia to review its ambitious thirsty irrigation development plans in the lower Omo, admit the impacts, and reconsider the worth of sacrificing unique natural capital, and perhaps restore meaningful ecological floods into the lake too.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/99458/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sean Avery is affiliated with; University of Leicester, Water Resource Associates, GIBB Africa Ltd, Kenya Wetlands Biodiversity Research Team and National Museums of Kenya</span></em></p>Lake Turkana’s status as a World Heritage Site hasn’t protected it from environmental threats.Sean Avery, Chartered Consultant in Hydrology and Water Resources, Associate of the Department of Geography, University of LeicesterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/807572017-09-12T15:13:53Z2017-09-12T15:13:53ZFears over Ethiopian dam’s costly impact on environment, people<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/184333/original/file-20170901-26017-1ltq5z6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A man hangs fish to dry on the western shore of Lake Turkana.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Goran Tomasevic</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Ethiopia’s GIBE III hydropower dam is now operational. However, rights groups have <a href="http://www.nation.co.ke/news/Gibe-Dams-project-on-Kenya-and-Ethiopia/1056-3816882-10d7oky/index.html">raised concerns</a> over the impact that it is having on downstream communities and the environment. The Conversation Africa’s Moina Spooner asked expert Sean Avery about the dam and the huge controversy that has surrounded this project.</em></p>
<p><strong>Why was the dam constructed?</strong></p>
<p>Ethiopia’s highlands enjoy <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=89948">high rainfall</a> that generates huge rivers, with much of this water flowing out into other countries. This includes <a href="http://www.iwmi.cgiar.org/Publications/Working_Papers/working/WP123.pdf">almost</a> 70% into the Nile Basin and 14% to Kenya’s Lake Turkana.</p>
<p>Because of this huge resource, the country’s <a href="https://www.hydropower.org/country-profiles/ethiopia">hydropower potential</a>, at 45,000 MW, is the second highest in Africa, second only to the Democratic Republic of Congo. </p>
<p>Hydropower is a renewable energy resource. Dams are constructed to raise the river’s water to a high level for release to drive turbines within the dam’s power station that generate electricity. </p>
<p>Ethiopia is the <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/ethiopia/overview">second most</a> populous country in Africa and is developing its hydropower potential to meet its domestic electricity demand and also to export power to neighbouring countries. It is developing various sources, including the Omo-Gibe basin’s potential through the <a href="https://www.internationalrivers.org/resources/maps-gibe-dams-in-the-omo-turkana-basin-4579">Gibe cascade</a> of hydropower dams along the length of the Omo river.</p>
<p>Gibe III is the most recently commissioned project in the Gibe cascade and at 243m height is <a href="https://www.economist.com/news/21712281-gibe-iii-dam-has-capacity-double-countrys-electricity-output">the tallest</a> dam in Africa. Its power station’s installed generating capacity of 1,870 MW is not far short of the electricity generating capacity of the <a href="https://www.usaid.gov/sites/default/files/documents/1860/Kenya_Power_Sector_report.pdf">whole of</a> Kenya in 2015 – 2,295 MW. </p>
<p><strong>How long did it take and how much did it cost?</strong></p>
<p>The dam construction started in 2006 and was officially inaugurated in December 2016.</p>
<p>The project cost is <a href="https://www.salini-impregilo.com/en/projects/in-progress/dams-hydroelectric-plants-hydraulic-works/gibe-iii-hydroelectric-project.html">stated</a> to be 1.47 billion Euros (USD$1.75 billion) with funding coming from the Government of Ethiopia and Exim bank of China.</p>
<p><strong>What is it expected to produce in terms of energy output and which countries are set to benefit?</strong></p>
<p>Gibe III’s powerlines will feed into the Ethiopian national grid and onwards to the southern African electricity grid through Kenya. Gibe III will contribute roughly half its power output of 1,870 MW to Ethiopia itself. The rest will be exported to neighbouring countries – namely, 500 MW to Kenya, 200 MW to Djibouti and 200 MW to Sudan. </p>
<p><strong>The project has been labelled as the <a href="https://www.economist.com/news/21712281-gibe-iii-dam-has-capacity-double-countrys-electricity-output">“world’s most controversial dam”</a>, why is this?</strong></p>
<p>At the start, the procurement of the dam contractor was <a href="https://www.slideshare.net/anthony_mitchell/gilgel-gibe-iii-hydroelectric-dam-ethiopia-technical-engineering-and-economic-feasibility-study-report">determined</a> to be non-transparent by the World Bank, and international donors shunned the dam. Construction also started <a href="https://bankwatch.org/documents/gibe_study.pdf">without</a> a license from Ethiopia’s Environmental Protection Agency. </p>
<p>There have since been <a href="https://www.hrw.org/report/2012/06/18/what-will-happen-if-hunger-comes/abuses-against-indigenous-peoples-ethiopias-lower">ongoing complaints</a> about environmental and social impacts downstream, including villagisation and displacement of indigenous people.</p>
<p>There is also controversy regarding Kenya’s Lake Turkana. This is <a href="http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/user_upload/drought/docs/Lake%20Turkana_Sean_Avery_Version%202014%2009.pdf">because</a> the Omo river, on which Gibe III dam is built, is its umbilical cord. 90% of the inflow to Lake Turkana <a href="http://www.africanstudies.ox.ac.uk/what-future-lake-turkana">depends</a> on the river, which conveys fresh water and vital nutrients (such as nitrogen) that sustain the lake, and whose floods provide stimulus for fisheries breeding.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.internationalrivers.org/sites/default/files/attached-files/avery_swara.pdf">At least</a> half a million people depend of the lake. Lake Turkana is also the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4Dy-vAhhHc">world’s largest</a> desert lake and has three <a href="http://whc.unesco.org/en/list/801">national parks</a> that together form a World Heritage site. Due to these concerns, the Friends of Lake Turkana Trust <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.org/news/case-study-friends-lake-turkana/">challenged</a> the project in Kenyan Courts, but the case <a href="https://www.elaw.org/ke.folt.14">stalled</a>.</p>
<p>The project also lacked adequate social and environmental assessments. A downstream environmental and social impact <a href="https://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Environmental-and-Social-Assessments/Ethiopia-GIBE%20III%20Hydroelectric%20Project-Summary%20ESMP.pdf">assessment</a> was produced three years after construction started, but it didn’t study its impact over the border in Kenya, and wrongly stated that the dam would create a positive water balance for the lake with consequential irrigation abstraction impacts on the lake <a href="http://www.africanstudies.ox.ac.uk/lake-turkana-and-lower-omo-hydrological-impacts-major-dam-and-irrigation-developments">were not</a> not taken into account.</p>
<p>There were independent efforts by international donors, namely the European Investment Bank and the African Development Bank, to assess the impacts of the project. But these were gazumped when Chinese donors agreed <a href="http://www.gib3.com.et/Publication5.pdf">to fund</a> the power station. The Chinese donors did no independent environmental or social reviews. </p>
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<span class="caption">The Gibe III hydroelectric dam.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters//Tiksa Negeri</span></span>
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<p>A final controversy is that the Omo’s cascade of power stations has replaced the river’s natural flow cycle with regulated, man-made cycles. These depend on the electricity demands from the Ethiopian national electricity grid and its international connections. A consequence of this <a href="http://www.africanstudies.ox.ac.uk/lake-turkana-and-lower-omo-hydrological-impacts-major-dam-and-irrigation-developments">is that</a> the river’s annual floods are smoothed out and the low flows will be increased. </p>
<p>It has been claimed that this flood management is beneficial as floods <a href="https://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Environmental-and-Social-Assessments/Gibe%20III_ESIA%20Additional%20Study%20on%20Downstream%20Impact1_01.pdf">can lead</a> to loss of life. However, local people in Lower Omo depend on the annual flood, as they <a href="http://www.mursi.org/introducing-the-mursi">traditionally</a> cultivate the riverbanks following inundation by the flood. </p>
<p><strong>What will its impact on the environment be?</strong></p>
<p>There are serious environmental concerns. </p>
<p>Firstly, Gibe III’s flow regulation and water abstractions will <a href="https://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Compliance-Review/REPORT_NOV_2010_S_AVERY_TURKANA_Small_file.pdf">permanently alter</a> the Omo’s natural hydrology. This will potentially destroy Lake Turkana’s ecology and fisheries. </p>
<p>Secondly, Gibe III’s river regulation has enabled irrigated plantation development. A <a href="https://www.internationalrivers.org/resources/lower-omo-valley-wildlife-report-3354">potential</a> of 450,000 hectares of agricultural development in the Omo-Gibe Basin has been mentioned. So far, 100,000 hectares from within the Omo and Mago National Parks and Tama Wildlife Reserve are being developed into sugar plantations. And <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/17531055.2016.1267602">downstream</a>, 50,000 hectares has been allocated to a foreign cotton plantation developer. There will be other schemes requiring water too.</p>
<p>Through abstracting irrigation water, these plantations will deplete the Omo river influx to Lake Turkana. The lake is already semi-saline, said to be on the salinity brink for some species, and depletion of inflows will increase the salinity levels. Also, chemical releases from plantation developments may adversely affect the lake.</p>
<p>Thirdly, the dams will cause a massive drop in Lake Turkana’s water level. When the Gibe III reservoir was filled in 2016, it <a href="https://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/cropexplorer/global_reservoir/gr_regional_chart.aspx?regionid=eafrica&reservoir_name=Turkana">caused</a> the lake to fall two metres. The Gibe IV dam, also called Koysha, will be next in the Gibe cascade to be built, and this in turn <a>will deplete</a> the lake by 0.9 metres during its filling, forecast for 2020.</p>
<p>In 1996, the <a href="http://www.masdar.com/e4.asp">Omo-Gibe River Basin Integrated Development Plan</a> had forecast that the Basin’s water demand in 2024 would require 32% of river’s discharge, 94% being for irrigation purposes. This is becoming a reality, with recent studies demonstrating that as a consequence, the lake level <a href="http://www.africanstudies.ox.ac.uk/what-future-lake-turkana">could fall</a> 10-20 metres. As the lake is <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/305482980_Fisheries_and_Water_Level_Fluctuations_in_the_World%27s_Largest_Desert_Lake_Lake_Turkana_Fisheries_and_Water_Level_Fluctuations">on average</a> about 30 metres deep, the potential environmental consequences are significant.</p>
<p><strong>And what of the future for Lake Turkana?</strong></p>
<p>Warnings of environmental impact have been sounded for decades. The Omo-Gibe River Basin Integrated Development Plan had in 1996 warned that a bilateral agreement <a href="http://www.masdar.com/e4.asp">was needed</a> between Kenya and Ethiopia before tampering with the Omo river discharges. </p>
<p>Time will tell, but at least there is now a trans-boundary forum <a href="http://whc.unesco.org/en/documents/137908">brokered</a> by UNEP, albeit belated, and somewhat lethargic in its progress. It is hoped that this initiative will be sustained and will critically review the development options and impacts.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/80757/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sean Avery is affiliated with; University of Leicester, Water Resource Associates, GIBB Africa Ltd, Kenya Wetlands Biodiversity Research Team and National Museums of Kenya </span></em></p>Ethiopia’s GIBE III dam has been labelled the world’s most controversial dam due to environmental and social impacts and the displacement of indigenous people.Sean Avery, Chartered Consultant in Hydrology and Water Resources, Associate of the Department of Geography, University of LeicesterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.