tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/organization-for-security-and-co-operation-in-europe-32373/articlesOrganization for Security and Co-operation in Europe – The Conversation2020-09-23T09:58:14Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1461652020-09-23T09:58:14Z2020-09-23T09:58:14ZBelarus: slow international response shows limits of world’s human rights regime<p>After an urgent debate initiated by the European Union, the UN Human Rights Council has condemned human rights violations in Belarus following the country’s disputed election in August. On September 18, the council <a href="https://www.euronews.com/2020/09/18/belarus-attempts-to-stop-testimony-at-urgent-un-human-rights-debate">passed a resolution</a> instructing the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights to enhance its scrutiny of the situation in Belarus. </p>
<p>But international organisations have been depressingly slow to react to the events in Belarus – demonstrating the inherent problems with the effectiveness of the international human rights regime.</p>
<p>Almost every known human right of Belarusians has reportedly been violated by authorities in recent weeks. The key opposition candidates standing against the president, Alexander Lukashenko, were <a href="https://theconversation.com/belarus-election-why-strongman-alexander-lukashenko-faces-unprecedented-resistance-142524">arrested before the poll</a> – and remain in prison. The counting of the ballots themselves was not transparent, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34499387">according to observers,</a> and after the results were announced, <a href="https://theconversation.com/belarus-election-contested-result-sparks-massive-unrest-as-europes-last-dictator-claims-victory-144139">massive peaceful protests</a> were interrupted by brutal violence from state police. Lukashenko’s principle remaining opponent, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/11/europe/belarus-opposition-leader-flees-intl/index.html">fled into exile</a> in Lithuania with her children. </p>
<p>People have reportedly <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/09/15/belarus-systematic-beatings-torture-protesters">been</a> killed, tortured, raped, arbitrarily detained, and their privacy and freedom of expression violated. The internet was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/11/belarus-president-cuts-off-internet-amid-widespread-protests">blocked in Belarus</a> for several days, and journalists arrested. </p>
<p>There are very few examples of human rights violations of this scale happening in Europe since the collapse of the Iron Curtain. But the reaction of international and European human rights institutions has not been proportionate to the magnitude of the crisis. </p>
<h2>Limited powers</h2>
<p>There are two key reasons which hinder international action after human rights violations. First, authorities which violate human rights need to agree to be supervised by international bodies and invite observers into their country. This rarely happens during human right crises – and even if an organisation is already in the country it can be removed fairly easily. </p>
<p>In 2010, after the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) criticised the results of a previous Belarusian election, its office in the country <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-12100765">was shut down</a>. In mid-September, more than a month after the recent election, the OSCE established an <a href="https://www.osce.org/odihr/464001">expert mission</a> to look into the situation with human rights in Belarus. But it’s unlikely that the Belarusian authorities will collaborate. </p>
<p>Second, political realities mean consensus is difficult. The most brutal human rights violations can be prevented by force by the UN Security Council but its five permanent members – Russia, China, France, the US and the UK – must agree on the course of actions. In the case of Belarus, this is practically impossible. The Russian and Chinese authorities are regarded as allies of Lukashenko and they would almost inevitably block any immediate actions to protect human rights in Belarus. The situation in Belarus <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/20200818-un-security-council-discusses-disputed-belarus-vote-protests">was discussed</a> in the UN security council in late August, but no identifiable actions were taken. </p>
<p>The UN secretary-general, Antonio Guterres, and other UN officials, including the UN special rapporteur on Belarus, <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=26261&LangID=E">Anaïs Marin</a>, have expressed their concerns about the situation. But Marin is not currently allowed into Belarus. </p>
<h2>Mixed European response</h2>
<p>Belarus is a European country and, while it is not an EU member, the EU has a legitimate interest in what is happening in the country, which borders EU members Poland, Lithuania and Latvia. </p>
<p>The EU has refused to recognise <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/09/eu-don-recognise-lukashenko-legitimate-president-200915114733368.html">the result of the elections</a>, and condemned reports of human rights violations. The EU is trying to impose sanctions against top Belarusian officials responsible for crimes and human rights abuses. But sanctions have so far been blocked by the Cypriot delegation, which is trying to use the situation as <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-foreign-ministers-to-try-to-break-a-deadlock-on-belarus-sanctions/">leverage to impose sanctions it wants on Turkey</a>. </p>
<p>But what of the Council of Europe, the organisation created to promote human rights, democracy and the rule of law? Even though Belarus is not a member, collaboration between Belarus and the council has intensified over the past decade, and the council operates an information point in the country. The reaction of the council’s secretary-general, Marija Pejčinović Burić, to the unrest was initially <a href="https://www.coe.int/en/web/portal/-/secretary-general-comments-on-the-situation-in-belarus">muted</a>, although in mid-September she did issue a statement that mass intimidation of citizens was “<a href="https://www.coe.int/en/web/portal/-/secretary-general-gravely-concerned-by-human-rights-violations-in-belarus">totally unacceptable and must stop</a>”. On September 21, the council’s commissioner for human rights, Dunja Mijatović, also issued <a href="https://www.coe.int/en/web/commissioner/-/human-rights-violations-in-belarus-must-stop-immediately">a statement condemning the human rights violations</a>, and said there could be “no peace without justice and proper respect for human rights”. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, the parliamentary assembly of the Council of Europe, which consists of members from all its 47 member states, was more proactive. It plans to discuss a <a href="http://assembly.coe.int/nw/xml/News/News-View-en.asp?newsid=7992&lang=2">motion</a> to create an investigatory body on the ill-treatment of Belarusian citizens at its next session. If this motion is approved, although it won’t have an immediate impact on the situation, it will send a clear message that those who violate human rights will be identified. The assembly should coordinate its efforts with the OSCE, as joint actions might be more effective.</p>
<p>There are many more actions that international organisations could initiate to support human rights in Belarus. These could include an international tribunal capable of investigating torture, multiple personalised sanctions or investigations of businesses that collaborate and sell military and police equipment to the Belarusian regime. Political will, and a genuine belief in human rights, is necessary for this to become a reality.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/146165/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kanstantsin Dzehtsiarou does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Why haven’t international and European human rights organisations done more to protect the human rights of Belarusians?Kanstantsin Dzehtsiarou, Professor in Human Rights Law, University of LiverpoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/763932017-04-21T06:45:59Z2017-04-21T06:45:59ZWhy the result of Turkey’s referendum is broadly unacceptable to so many<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/turkeys-constitutional-referendum-experts-express-fear-for-a-divided-country-76289">result of Turkey’s April 16 referendum</a> handed President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan the right to expand his power practically without checks and balances. It granted him authority to control the parliament and judiciary and the power to rule Turkey by decree. </p>
<p>But the razor-thin victory of the “yes” campaign has been strongly objected to by a range of groups. </p>
<p>Opposition parties have accepted all of Erdoğan’s electoral victories since 2002. But this time they are saying that he rigged the referendum. International observers agree with them. And, for days, hundreds of thousands of people have been <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/19/turkish-activists-arrested-protesting-referendum-opposition/">peacefully protesting in the streets</a>.</p>
<p>For decades, the <a href="http://www.coe.int/en/web/portal/home">Council of Europe</a> (CoE) and the <a href="http://www.osce.org/">Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe</a> (OSCE) have been sending electoral observer mission groups to monitor elections in the country at Turkey’s invitation. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.dw.com/en/osce-turkey-referendum-contested-on-an-unlevel-playing-field/a-38453816">A preliminary report on the referendum</a> from the joint mission by CoE and OSCE said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>our monitoring showed the ‘Yes’ campaign dominated the media coverage and this, along with restrictions on the media, the arrests of journalists and the closure of media outlets, reduced voters’ access to a plurality of views. Provincial governors used state-of-emergency powers to further restrict the freedom of assembly and expression. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>In some cases, CoE and OSCE observers either had <a href="http://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/turkey/311726">limited or no access</a> to the opening up of polling stations and during voting. And police presence was widely reported both in and outside polling stations. </p>
<h2>Last minute change</h2>
<p>Irregularities weren’t just detected on the ground.</p>
<p>A 2010 law disallows unstamped ballots in unstamped envelopes to be counted as valid. But, at the request of Erdogan’s ruling AKP (Justice and Development Party), the Supreme Board of Elections (YSK) made a <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/17/turkish-referendum-opposition-plans-appeal-against-last-minute/">last-minute decision to allow this illegal practice.</a></p>
<p>Oddly, the YSK followed the law for votes from the Turkish diaspora, not accepting unstamped ballots and envelopes as valid. </p>
<p>In the 2014 local elections, <a href="http://in.reuters.com/article/turkey-politics-idINKBN17K1E5">the YSK cancelled and re-held elections in two towns because of unstamped votes</a> as a result of the application by the ruling AKP. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/turkey/311726">CoE and OSCE observers noted</a> that the last-minute decision by the YSK was illegal and lifted an important safeguard against fraud. </p>
<p>An Austrian member of the CoE observer mission stated that <a href="http://www.dw.com/en/osce-turkey-referendum-contested-on-an-unlevel-playing-field/a-38453816">up to 2.5 million votes</a> (about 6% of total votes) could have been manipulated in the referendum. CoE and OSCE monitors also said that <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-politics-referendum-observers-idUSKBN17K0JW">Turkish authorities were not cooperating</a> with efforts to investigate claims of possible electoral fraud. </p>
<p><a href="https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/04/18/world/europe/turkey-referendum-is-haunted-by-allegations-of-voter-fraud.html">The New York Times reported</a> that over 170 members of the opposition were banned from participating as observers in the election. And that some international election observers were temporarily detained, preventing them from fully observing vote counts. It was also alleged that “no” votes were removed from ballot boxes and deposited in a building site in the same area of southern Turkey. </p>
<h2>Opposition objections</h2>
<p>The pro-Kurdish opposition Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) has said it presented complaints about unstamped ballots affecting three million voters, <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/turkish-referendum-million-votes-manipulated-recep-tayyip-erdogan-council-of-europe-observer-a7690181.html">more than twice the margin of Erdogan’s victory</a>, to no avail. </p>
<p>And the party’s deputy chairman said the electoral board’s last-minute decision to allow unstamped ballots meant that <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-politics-kurds-idUSKBN17L0VH?il=0">it’s now impossible to determine</a> how many invalid or fake votes may have been counted. He also said that some voters had been unable to cast their ballots in private. </p>
<p><a href="http://washingtonhatti.com/2017/04/18/hdps-provincial-co-chair-of-van-claims-that-20-percent-of-ballots-in-van-were-unsealed/">Other HDP officials stated</a> that some electors were given unsealed “yes” voted ballots by AKP members, asked to cast them and then return sealed ballots in exchange for money.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.hayirveotesi.org/duyurular">Election monitoring NGO No and Beyond found</a> that in 961 ballot boxes, 100% of the ballots were “yes”. And in a third of these 961 boxes, 100% of eligible voters had cast votes. Both these occurrences are extremely unusual. </p>
<p>The NGO also said that in the town of Viranşehir, in the province Urfa, all the signatures of the voters were the same, suggesting that the same person signed them. </p>
<p>The main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) has <a href="https://bianet.org/english/politics/185650-chp-seeking-annulment-of-referendum-applies-to-election-board">asked the YSK to annul the referendum</a> on the basis of fraudulent activities and its extralegal decision to allow unstamped ballots. Unsurprisingly, the YSK swiftly rejected the request. </p>
<p>The CHP will now <a href="https://bianet.org/english/politics/185700-chp-spokesperson-boke-we-might-withdraw-from-parliament">take its case to the Turkish Constitutional Court</a>. But it’s unlikely that the petition will see much success there either.</p>
<p>The court has been under Erdoğan’s control since he and his fellow Islamist colleague, former president Abdullah Gul, appointed AKP loyalists to the bench. Now it simply rubber stamps Erdoğan’s wishes. </p>
<h2>Echoes from history</h2>
<p>Electoral fraud is not new in Turkey. </p>
<p>The country had its first elections more than 170 years ago when the absolutist Sultan allowed local councils to hold elections to address local administrative issues in 1840. </p>
<p>The first Ottoman parliament was opened in 1876 but Sultan Abdulhamid the Second closed it down the following year until a coup in 1908 that brought secularist-nationalists to power. </p>
<p>They also did not like losing electoral power and, in the 1912 general elections, voters who tried to vote for the opposition candidates were beaten by supporters of the secularist-nationalists. In fact, the 1912 election is infamously called the “election with sticks”. </p>
<p>Even though the republic was established by the secularist nationalists in 1923, the one party-regime did not allow elections until 1946. When the second world war was over, Turkey – under threat of Soviet occupation – wanted to join the Western democratic pact, and so had to allow multi-party elections. But they were not ready to lose the elections. </p>
<p>Thus, there appeared to be a “open vote, hidden counting” rule in 1946, for starters. Under conditions of a party-state, the governor, head of district, mayor and provincial head of the ruling secularist-nationalist party – who were the same person – forced people to vote for the ruling party with the help of the security forces.</p>
<p>When the Republican Turkey had its first free elections in 1950, the ruling secularist-nationalist CHP lost power to the liberal secular Democrat Party (DP). Since then – and despite minor problems – none of the election results have been declared unacceptable by any of the contesting political parties. </p>
<p>The April 16 referendum was rather similar to the 1912 and 1946 general elections. This referendum is the first time in the democratic history of Turkey, which is a member of NATO, Council of Europe (CoE) and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), that an election has been seen as illegitimate by not only domestic contenders, but by international observers as well.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/76393/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ihsan Yilmaz does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>This referendum is the first time in the democratic history of Turkey that an election has been seen as illegitimate by not only domestic contenders, but by international observers as well.Ihsan Yilmaz, Professor Ihsan Yilmaz is Research Chair in Islamic Studies and Intercultural Dialogue, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/671262016-10-20T06:27:09Z2016-10-20T06:27:09ZWill oil-rich Kazakhstan ever embrace democracy?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/141902/original/image-20161016-30277-17rl220.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=4%2C83%2C2646%2C1746&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ak Orda, the President's Residence in Astana.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Nurseit Niyazbekov</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>This year, Kazakhstan celebrates the 25th anniversary of its independence from the USSR. Politicians have <a href="http://bnews.kz/en/news/nezavisimomu_kazahstanu__25_let">already started boasting</a> about the country’s successful socioeconomic reforms and <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-kazakhstan-president-idUSTRE65E0WP20100615">praising President Nursultan Nazarbayev</a> for the country’s achievements. </p>
<p>Thanks to its abundance of natural resources, this young Central Asian republic has managed to attract billions of dollars’ worth of investments and rebuild its economy with <a href="http://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Kazakhstan/Economic_growth/">two-digit</a> annual GDP growth.</p>
<p>But while there’s no doubt that Kazakhstan has become an economic success, international <a href="https://www.hrw.org/europe/central-asia/kazakhstan">human rights organisations</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jun/30/kazakhstan-strategically-valuable-democracy">foreign governments</a> and <a href="http://www.academia.edu/274685/Politics_and_Oil_in_Kazakhstan">academics</a> all have expressed deep concerns about the country’s observance of human rights, protection of civil liberties, and adherence to democratic procedures.</p>
<p>A recent <a href="http://wagingnonviolence.org/2016/10/trial-begins-land-rights-activists-kazakhstan/">trial of two activists</a> behind an unprecedented wave of anti land-reform demonstrations across the country earlier this year is a case in point. </p>
<p>Max Bokayev and Talgat Ayan are being prosecuted for organising an unsanctioned rally and inciting social, national, and class discord. According to human rights organisations, however, activists are being convicted for exercising their freedom of speech and right to peaceful assembly. </p>
<p>Despite <a href="http://www.rferl.org/a/kazakhstan-nazarbaev-delays-land-privatization/27717597.html">cancelling the land reform</a>, the government has shown its reluctance to respect civil liberties and tolerate dissent by prosecuting the protests’ leaders.</p>
<h2>The Kazakhstan way</h2>
<p>Kazakhstan has not always been condemned for its poor democratic record. Until 1994, <a href="https://freedomhouse.org/country/kazakhstan">Freedom House</a>, an influential democracy NGO, labelled Kazakhstan as “partially free”, owing to its post-communist liberalisation campaign. </p>
<p>Leading democracy promotion agencies such as USAID and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe applauded Kazakhstan for adopting a democratic constitution, holding free and fair parliamentary elections, and respecting individual rights and freedoms.</p>
<p>But a <a href="https://www.hrw.org/legacy/russian/reports/kazakh/1999/october/topic11.html">dubious parliament dissolution in 1994</a>, the introduction of <a href="http://rus.azattyq.org/a/1376014.html">anti-democratic amendments</a> to the constitution in 1995, and the passing of several bills detrimental to the development of civil society jeopardised Kazakhstan’s early democratisation progress. It is now rated “not free” by Freedom House. </p>
<p>In his book <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Kazakhstan-Way-Nursultan-Nazarbayev/dp/1905299613">The Kazakhstan Way</a>, President Nazarbayev argues the measures were necessary to advance socioeconomic reforms. But others view the measures as an attempt to centralise power, form a rubber-stamp parliament, and destroy political opposition.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/142233/original/image-20161018-15108-12pho1e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/142233/original/image-20161018-15108-12pho1e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142233/original/image-20161018-15108-12pho1e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142233/original/image-20161018-15108-12pho1e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142233/original/image-20161018-15108-12pho1e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142233/original/image-20161018-15108-12pho1e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142233/original/image-20161018-15108-12pho1e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Preseident Nazarbaev on a stamp from 1993.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Empowered by the signing of oil and gas contracts with Western companies and inspired by the economic success of the <a href="https://books.google.fr/books?id=0gl0QgAACAAJ&dq=asian+tigers&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjOoqX-rNrPAhXCWRoKHUV4ClIQ6AEINDAE">Four Asian Tigers</a> – Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan – in 1997, the Kazakh government declared a <a href="http://www.akorda.kz/en/official_documents/strategies_and_programs">national strategy</a> that set out major long-term priorities in national security, education and health care. </p>
<p>Since then, when criticised about the nation’s deficit of democracy, Kazakh authorities unanimously cite the <a href="https://books.google.fr/books?id=AC4dCgAAQBAJ&pg=PA4&lpg=PA4&dq=nazarbayev+economy+first+politics+later&source=bl&ots=oimlIUDc4Q&sig=tyYGYpTvC7zXn4-bE79ZFsFw-us&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjj7cbyrtrPAhUDHxoKHb9MDqkQ6AEIKjAD#v=onepage&q=nazarbayev%20economy%20first%20politics%20later&f=false">president’s words</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Democracy in Kazakhstan is not the start of its journey but rather its destination.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>A muted opposition</h2>
<p>Kazakhstan is no longer perceived as a country in transition to democracy; it’s now a <a href="https://muse.jhu.edu/article/17173">consolidated authoritarian regime</a>. </p>
<p>Rigged parliamentary and <a href="http://thediplomat.com/2015/04/why-is-kazakhstan-even-having-an-election/">presidential elections</a>, <a href="http://www.eurasianet.org/node/76946">politically motivated lawsuits</a>, the imprisonment of <a href="http://www.rferl.org/a/kazakhstan-protests/27748591.html">opposition figures</a>, the <a href="https://cpj.org/2014/02/attacks-on-the-press-in-2013-kazakhstan.php">oppression of independent media</a> and flawed rule of law all attest to the regime’s adherence to democracy only on paper. </p>
<p>The reaction of the international community to these shortcomings is often muted by the West’s interests in Kazakhstan’s <a href="http://fride.org/download/COM_Kazajstan_ENG_sep07.pdf">oil and gas resources</a>. Take, for instance, the very <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/jul/01/david-cameron-kaszakhstan-britain">controversial visit</a> to Kazakhstan by then-prime minister of the UK, David Cameron, in 2013.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/141907/original/image-20161016-30249-1nv53vr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/141907/original/image-20161016-30249-1nv53vr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/141907/original/image-20161016-30249-1nv53vr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141907/original/image-20161016-30249-1nv53vr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141907/original/image-20161016-30249-1nv53vr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141907/original/image-20161016-30249-1nv53vr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141907/original/image-20161016-30249-1nv53vr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141907/original/image-20161016-30249-1nv53vr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An opposition demonstration in Almaty.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Nurseit Niyazbekov</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Opposition is almost non-existent in Kazakhstan. Because of the regime’s powerful propaganda, opponents lack popular support and are subject to intimidation.</p>
<p>As the <a href="http://www.eurasianet.org/node/64745">2011 Zhanaozen</a> city oil workers’ strikes showed, Kazakh authorities tolerate popular dissent – provided it’s not politicised. The protest was tolerated when it began, as a labour conflict. But when protesters began to demand the <a href="http://www.socialistworld.net/mob/doc/5497">resignation of the government</a>, the regime sent special troops to suppress their revolt.</p>
<p>It’s thought <a href="http://www.eurasianet.org/node/64745">14 people died and 110 were injured</a>, largely by gunshot. Without a doubt, the Zhanaozen massacre taught both the regime and activists a lesson. </p>
<p>Civic activists harnessed the potential of social media and online activism for advocacy campaigns. The infamous initiative of Serik Abdenov, Minister of Labor and Social Protection, to increase women’s retirement age from 58 to 63 <a href="https://en.tengrinews.kz/politics_sub/Kazakhstan-Labor-Minister-Abdenov-dismissed-20141/">was not welcomed</a> and was rejected with the help of large-scale civic activism in 2013. </p>
<p>The regime, while acknowledging the importance of a timely and effective response to citizens’ demands, realised just how dangerous social media could be. A set of amendments to the country’s <a href="http://medialaw.asia/node/11201">media legislation in 2012</a> and <a href="http://ru.odfoundation.eu/a/5443,kazahstan-reforma-ugolovnogo-zakonodatelstva-ugrozhaet-pravam-cheloveka">criminal code in 2014</a> put <a href="https://vlast.kz/obsshestvo/14943-internet.html">severe restrictions</a> on materials posted on social media and blogs.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/141906/original/image-20161016-30236-1n9yn4i.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/141906/original/image-20161016-30236-1n9yn4i.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/141906/original/image-20161016-30236-1n9yn4i.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141906/original/image-20161016-30236-1n9yn4i.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141906/original/image-20161016-30236-1n9yn4i.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141906/original/image-20161016-30236-1n9yn4i.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141906/original/image-20161016-30236-1n9yn4i.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141906/original/image-20161016-30236-1n9yn4i.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A demonstration in Almaty to mourn victims of Zhanaozen massacre.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Nurseit Niyazbekov</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Oil and propaganda</h2>
<p>At the 2015 presidential elections, which again <a href="http://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/kazakhstan/174811?download=true">fell short of international standards</a>, Nazarbayev won 97.7% of the nationwide vote. </p>
<p>A more reliable <a href="http://astanatimes.com/2014/11/new-poll-shows-kazakh-citizens-positive-outlook-country-fundamentals-explain/">2014 poll</a> commissioned by Eurasian Council on Foreign Affairs found that 90% of respondents feel fairly positive or very positive about their country. It seems that most people support President Nazarbayev and his vision of Kazakhstan’s future. </p>
<p>The regime in general and President Nazarbayev in particular have managed to win the hearts of population through appeasement and propaganda. Oil and gas revenues have allowed the government to rapidly improve people’s living standards and rebuild social infrastructure. </p>
<p>Like most oil-rich autocracies, Kazakhstan is pouring billions of oil money in such grandiose projects as modernisation of its capital Astana and throwing <a href="https://www.opendemocracy.net/od-russia/anar-valiyev-natalie-koch/sochi-syndrome">international mega-events</a>, such as 2011 Asian Winter Games and the 2017 world exhibition, <a href="https://expo2017astana.com/kz/">EXPO-2017</a>, to be held in Astana. </p>
<p>Kazakhstan’s chairmanship of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe in 2010 and <a href="http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=54350#.WAOC7pN97dc">recent election</a> as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council are also meant to improve the country’s reputation in the international arena.</p>
<p>What does the future hold for Kazakh democracy? When will the government decide that time has come for opening up its political system? </p>
<p>Looking to <a href="http://thediplomat.com/2015/03/lee-kuan-yews-singapore-as-a-model-for-kazakhstan/">Singapore</a> – a role model for “the Kazakhstan way” – inevitably recalls its former leader, Lee Kuan Yew, who turned Singapore <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-32012346">from a small port to a wealthy global hub</a>. </p>
<p>During his 31 years in power, Lee Kuan Yew was notorious for harassing opposition and installing censorship, justifying this by proclaiming the necessity to maintain peace and order in a multi-ethnic society. Asked in an <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B3YFl-dY9Qg">interview</a> about the future of Singapore, he replied that democratisation was not his job, but that of his successors. </p>
<p>Despite his retirement and death in 2015, we do not see any intention on the part of the Singaporean leadership to democratise the country. The scenario is no more optimistic for Kazakhstan. </p>
<p>What about potential cracks in regime after the dictator’s death? As the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2009/nov/01/turkmenistan-after-niyazov">Turkmen</a> and <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2016-09-07/uzbekistan-after-karimov">Uzbek</a> examples illustrate, a change of leadership in Central Asia does not necessarily mean a change of political course. Authoritarian political culture, the absence of civil society and repressive elites in these republics minimise the chances of a democratic transition. </p>
<p>The population’s strong support of the current regime and the importance attributed to <a href="https://books.google.fr/books?id=8Tom2gU6rzIC&hl=fr&source=gbs_book_other_versions">political stability</a> in Kazakhstan mean that we should not expect any miracles any time soon. </p>
<p><em>At the time of writing, Nurseit Niyazbekov was visiting SciencesPo University in Paris as a research fellow.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/67126/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nurseit Niyazbekov does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>An abundance of natural resources has helped Kazakhstan attract billions in investments. Despite its booming economy, the government is unlikely to move towards democracy any time soon.Nurseit Niyazbekov, Assistant professor, KIMEP UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.