With the demise of Pierre Nkurunziza, all eyes are on Burundi’s new president as he inherits a political framework that has repressed press freedom and silenced independent media voices.
If the referendum goes President Pierre Nkrunziza’s way, it will also be a further blow to ordinary Burundians, who live in a state of hardship and adversity.
The outcome of the race between increasingly artful electoral manipulation and limitless possible manifestations of democratic expression is never entirely certain.
Zambia has gone from a country where people engaged freely in open political debate to one where most people now look over their shoulders to see who’s listening.
The prospects for reconciliation are bleak. Formal gestures by the government to nudge the opposition parties to join an intra-Burundi dialogue have consistently failed.
The competition between the two authoritarian regimes has become a fact that, given the regional context, is here to last. It justifies repression and indefinitely postpones democratic expression.
The “quick fix” nature of the Arusha Peace Agreement seems to have come back to haunt Burundi. Ethnic protests threaten to tear the country apart, leading it to the path of a failed state.
Whenever the crisis in Burundi is discussed, the economy is often overlooked, even though it is central to understanding the backdrop to the most severe crisis since the end of the civil war.
Rwanda and Burundi, once the conjoined twins of East Africa, marked over five decades of going separate ways since independence. Today, the difference in their fortunes couldn’t be more stark.
Senior lecturer in the Department of Political and Administrative Studies at the University of Malawi and Research Associate, Centre for Social Science Research, University of Cape Town
Associated senior researcher, Department of Peace and Conflict Research at Uppsala University and the Nordic Africa Institute (NAI); and Head of Research, Senior Researcher Peace and Conflict Research (Folke Bernadotte Academy), Uppsala University