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Articles on Political polls
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Imprecision in election polling has long been recognized. But advance polls are still useful in recognizing trends in voter preferences, and candidates’ weak points.
Michelle Grattan explains what a government with a so-called ‘unelectable’ hard man at the helm might look like.
With final results awaiting the inclusion of special votes, the shape of New Zealand’s next parliament hangs in the balance. Here are the variables in play.
With two days of the campaign left, what had earlier seemed like a relatively predictable election has narrowed considerably, with several variables potentially influencing the outcome.
The election campaign’s first live TV debate offered a glimpse of the leadership challenge faced by Labour’s Chris Hipkins – to connect with voter’s values and interests, not just their current mood.
The Conversation’s poll-watcher breaks down the party support trend since March – which has all been surging one way, despite some variation between pollsters.
Political polls can make for dramatic headlines. But they are a snapshot of when they were taken, not a predictor of election outcomes. Follow these expert tips to make sense of the stats.
Recent political polls in New Zealand and elsewhere have consistently failed to reflect eventual outcomes. Voters and pundits alike should avoid reading them too literally.
People know a lot about their friends and neighbors – and pollsters can learn from that information, if they ask.
During the MMP era, the average vote share of the highest-polling party has been steadily climbing — with big implications for New Zealand democracy.
There was a time when well-known journalists resented preelection polls and didn’t mind saying so. One even said he felt “secret glee and relief when the polls go wrong.” Why did they feel this way?
With the polls showing a clear trend to the left, are we also witnessing a fundamental shift in the way New Zealand governments are formed?
As Canada approaches its federal election, political pundits have been warning of a polarized war among Canadians. But a new survey tells a story of unity.
Ontario voters head to the polls on Thursday. Public opinion surveys and redrawn provincial ridings are making it difficult to predict the race’s outcome.
Top contributors
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Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
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Professor of Politics, Massey University
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Professor Emeritus of Communication, American University School of Communication
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University Professor Emeritus, Politics and Public Policy/Administration, York University, Canada
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PhD student in Sociology, Dalhousie University
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Professor of Human Social Dynamics, Santa Fe Institute; External Faculty, Complexity Science Hub Vienna; Associate Researcher, Harding Center for Risk Literacy, University of Potsdam
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Honorary Academic in Psychology, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau
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Associate professor, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington
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Honorary Associate Professor, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau
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Senior Lecturer, School of Management, Massey University
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Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra
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Visiting Scholar in Politics, City, University of London
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Professor of Mathematics, Director of Institute for Mathematics and Democracy, Wellesley College
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Professor of Public Policy, Psychology and Behavioral Science, USC Sol Price School of Public Policy, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences
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Professor of Sociology, Western University
