tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/politics-245/articlesPolitics – The Conversation2024-03-28T05:59:11Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2267562024-03-28T05:59:11Z2024-03-28T05:59:11ZInstagram and Threads are limiting political content. This is terrible for democracy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584705/original/file-20240327-24-b0sz75.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=556%2C440%2C4940%2C3476&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/neon-signage-xv7-GlvBLFw">Prateek Katyal/Unsplash</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Meta’s Instagram and Threads apps are “slowly” rolling out a change that will <a href="https://about.instagram.com/blog/announcements/continuing-our-approach-to-political-content-on-instagram-and-threads">no longer recommend political content</a> by default. The company defines political content broadly as being “potentially related to things like laws, elections, or social topics”.</p>
<p>Users who follow accounts that post political content will still see such content in the normal, algorithmically sorted ways. But by default, users will not see any political content in their feeds, stories or other places where <em>new</em> content is recommended to them. </p>
<p>For users who want political recommendations to remain, Instagram has a new setting where users can turn it back on, making this an “opt-in” feature.</p>
<p>This change not only signals Meta’s retreat from politics and news more broadly, but also challenges any sense of these platforms being good for democracy at all. It’s also likely to have a chilling effect, stopping content creators from engaging politically altogether.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/from-curry-nights-to-coal-kills-dresses-how-social-media-drives-politicians-to-behave-like-influencers-190246">From curry nights to ‘coal kills’ dresses: how social media drives politicians to behave like influencers</a>
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<h2>Politics: dislike</h2>
<p>Meta has long had a problem with politics, but that wasn’t always the case.</p>
<p>In 2008 and 2012, political campaigning <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/19331681.2016.1163519">embraced social media</a>, and Facebook was seen as especially important in Barack Obama’s success. The Arab Spring was painted as a social-media-led “Facebook Revolution”, although Facebook’s role in these events was <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/journalism/2012/11/28/role-social-media-arab-uprisings/">widely overstated</a>, </p>
<p>However, since then the spectre of political manipulation in the wake of the 2018 Cambridge Analytica scandal has soured social media users toward politics on platforms.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cambridge-analytica-scandal-facebooks-user-engagement-and-trust-decline-93814">Cambridge Analytica scandal: Facebook's user engagement and trust decline</a>
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<p>Increasingly polarised politics, vastly increased mis- and disinformation online, and Donald Trump’s preference for social media over policy, or truth, have all taken a toll. In that context, Meta has already been reducing <a href="https://about.fb.com/news/2021/02/reducing-political-content-in-news-feed/">political content recommendations</a> on their main Facebook platform since 2021. </p>
<p>Instagram and Threads hadn’t been limited in the same way, but also ran into problems. Most recently, the Human Rights Watch <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/12/20/meta-systemic-censorship-palestine-content">accused Instagram</a> in December last year of systematically censoring pro-Palestinian content. With the new content recommendation change, Meta’s response to that accusation today would likely be that it is applying its political content policies consistently.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584952/original/file-20240328-30-jfkoff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A person holding a smartphone displaying an instagram profile at a high angle against a city backdrop." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584952/original/file-20240328-30-jfkoff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584952/original/file-20240328-30-jfkoff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584952/original/file-20240328-30-jfkoff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584952/original/file-20240328-30-jfkoff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584952/original/file-20240328-30-jfkoff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584952/original/file-20240328-30-jfkoff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584952/original/file-20240328-30-jfkoff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Instagram has no shortage of political content from advocacy and media organisations.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/high-angle-photo-of-person-holding-turned-on-smartphone-with-tall-buildings-background-WUmb_eBrpjs">Jakob Owens/Unsplash</a></span>
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<h2>How the change will play out in Australia</h2>
<p>Notably, many Australians, especially in younger age groups, <a href="https://www.canberra.edu.au/about-uc/media/newsroom/2023/june/digital-news-report-australia-2023-tiktok-and-instagram-increase-in-popularity-for-news-consumption,-but-australians-dont-trust-algorithms">find news on Instagram</a> and other social media platforms. Sometimes they are specifically seeking out news, but often not. </p>
<p>Not all news is political. But now, on Instagram by default no news recommendations will be political. The serendipity of discovering political stories that motivate people to think or act will be lost.</p>
<p>Combined with Meta <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/mar/01/facebook-news-tab-shut-down-end-australia-journalism-funding-deals">recently stating</a> they will no longer pay to support the Australian news and journalism shared on their platforms, it’s fair to say Meta is seeking to be as apolitical as possible.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-will-metas-refusal-to-pay-for-news-affect-australian-journalism-and-our-democracy-224872">How will Meta's refusal to pay for news affect Australian journalism – and our democracy?</a>
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<h2>The social media landscape is fracturing</h2>
<p>With Elon Musk’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-elon-musk-is-obsessed-with-casting-x-as-the-most-authentic-social-media-platform-210956">disastrous Twitter rebranding to X</a>, and TikTok <a href="https://theconversation.com/if-tiktok-is-banned-in-the-us-or-australia-how-might-the-company-or-china-respond-225889">facing the possibility of being banned</a> altogether in the United States, Meta appears as the most stable of the big social media giants.</p>
<p>But with Meta positioning Threads as a potential new town square while Twitter/X burns down, it’s hard to see what a town square looks like without politics. </p>
<p>The lack of political news, combined with a lack of any news on Facebook, may well mean young people see even less news than before, and have less chance to engage politically. </p>
<p>In a Threads discussion, Instagram Head Adam Mosseri made the <a href="https://www.threads.net/@mosseri/post/CuZ6opKtHva">platform’s position clear</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Politics and hard news are important, I don’t want to imply otherwise. But my take is, from a platform’s perspective, any incremental engagement or revenue they might drive is not at all worth the scrutiny, negativity (let’s be honest), or integrity risks that come along with them.</p>
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<p>Like for Facebook, for Instagram and Threads politics is just too hard. The political process and democracy can be pretty hard, but it’s now clear that’s not Meta’s problem.</p>
<h2>A chilling effect on creators</h2>
<p>Instagram’s <a href="https://about.instagram.com/blog/announcements/continuing-our-approach-to-political-content-on-instagram-and-threads">announcement</a> also reminded content creators their accounts may no longer be recommended due to posting political content.</p>
<p>If political posts were preventing recommendation, creators could see the exact posts and choose to remove them. Content creators <a href="https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300264753/not-getting-paid-to-do-what-you-love/">live or die by the platform’s recommendations</a>, so the implication is clear: avoid politics. </p>
<p>Creators already spend considerable time trying to interpret what content platforms prefer, building <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1461444819854731">algorithmic</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/01634437221077174">folklore</a> about which posts do best.</p>
<p>While that folklore is sometimes flawed, Meta couldn’t be clearer on this one: political posts will prevent audience growth, and thus make an already precarious living harder. That’s the definition of a political chilling effect.</p>
<p>For the audiences who turn to creators because they are <a href="https://scholarsbank.uoregon.edu/xmlui/bitstream/handle/1794/26365/ada08-commu-abi-2015.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y">perceived to be relatable and authentic</a>, the absence of political posts or positions will likely stifle political issues, discussion and thus ultimately democracy. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/p/C41CueKvYaF/?hl=en\u0026img_index=3","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<h2>How do I opt back in?</h2>
<p>For Instagram and Threads users who want these platforms to still share political content recommendations, follow these steps:</p>
<ul>
<li>go to your Instagram profile and click the three lines to access your settings.</li>
<li>click on Suggested Content (or Content Preferences for some).</li>
<li>click on Political content, and then select “Don’t limit political content from people that you don’t follow”.</li>
</ul>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/social-media-apps-have-billions-of-active-users-but-what-does-that-really-mean-226021">Social media apps have billions of 'active users'. But what does that really mean?</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226756/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tama Leaver receives funding from the Australian Research Council. He is a Chief Investigator in the ARC Centre of Excellence for the Digital Child.</span></em></p>A new change to Meta’s apps will see users no longer recommended political content by default. The ramifications of this will be far-reaching.Tama Leaver, Professor of Internet Studies, Curtin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2145272024-03-27T12:38:40Z2024-03-27T12:38:40ZWhy civil rights icon Fannie Lou Hamer was ‘sick and tired of being sick and tired’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582843/original/file-20240319-28-on9v8d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=791%2C43%2C2850%2C2402&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Fanny Lou Hamer speaks out against Mississippi's racist voting laws on Aug. 8, 1964.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/atlantic-city-nj-mississippi-freedom-democratic-party-news-photo/515450184?adppopup=true">Bettmann/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It wasn’t called voter suppression back then, but civil rights activist Fannie Lou Hamer knew exactly how <a href="https://apnews.com/article/black-voters-mississippi-suppression-election-2023-90e2b6df8e3f0f2ed4141830fa1ee8f6">white authorities</a>
in Mississippi felt about Black people voting in the 1960s.</p>
<p>At <a href="https://www.harlemworldmagazine.com/fannie-lou-hamer-malcolm-x-speak-harlem-ny-1964-video/">a rally with Malcolm X</a> in Harlem, New York, on Dec. 20, 1964, Hamer described <a href="https://awpc.cattcenter.iastate.edu/2019/08/09/im-sick-and-tired-of-being-sick-and-tired-dec-20-1964/">the brutal beatings</a> she and other Black people endured in Mississippi in their fight for civil and voting rights. </p>
<p>A year earlier, <a href="https://calendar.eji.org/racial-injustice/jun/9">in June 1963</a>, Hamer and several of her friends attended a voter education training workshop in Charleston, South Carolina. On their way back to Mississippi, the bus driver called the police to remove Hamer and her colleagues from the whites-only section of the bus where they had been sitting. </p>
<p>When they stopped in Winona, Mississippi, local police were waiting and promptly arrested them for disorderly conduct. </p>
<p>While in jail, Hamer told the Harlem rally, “I began to hear the sounds of licks and I began to hear screams. I couldn’t see the people, but I could hear them. … They would call her awful names. And I would hear when she would hit the floor again.”</p>
<p>After a while, Hamer said, she saw a friend pass her cell.</p>
<p>“Her clothes had been ripped off from the shoulder down to the waist,” Hamer said. “Her hair was standing up on her head. Her mouth was swollen and bleeding. And one of her eyes looked like blood. … And then three men came to my cell.”</p>
<p>Hamer was beaten, too, and sustained injuries that left her with lifelong injuries to her eyes, kidneys and legs. The experience also left her with little choice but to fight back. And fight she did, until <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/local/1977/03/17/fannie-hamer-civil-rights-leader-dies/e27c0980-8483-4f0f-91dd-242662b87727/">her death at the age of 59</a> on March 14, 1977.</p>
<h2>Challenging the status quo</h2>
<p>The rally in Harlem was organized to support the political party that Hamer co-founded in 1964 as part of <a href="https://kinginstitute.stanford.edu/freedom-summer">Freedom Summer</a>, which saw hundreds of college students travel to Mississippi and other Southern states to help register Black people to vote. </p>
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<img alt="A Black woman who is smiling and wearing a dress greets a white man wearing a business suit." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551869/original/file-20231003-19-qyxgqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551869/original/file-20231003-19-qyxgqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1050&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551869/original/file-20231003-19-qyxgqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1050&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551869/original/file-20231003-19-qyxgqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1050&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551869/original/file-20231003-19-qyxgqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1319&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551869/original/file-20231003-19-qyxgqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1319&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551869/original/file-20231003-19-qyxgqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1319&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Civil rights activist Fannie Lou Hamer meets a member of the Student Nonviolent Coordinating Committee in 1960.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/civil-rights-activist-and-organizer-of-the-student-news-photo/513611999?adppopup=true">Afro American Newspapers/Gado/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>The Mississippi Freedom Democratic Party was a racially integrated alternative to the state’s segregationist Democratic Party. Hamer was elected vice-chair of the party and also ran for a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. In addition to Hamer’s congressional campaign, one of her party’s main goals was to block the seating of the state’s five pro-segregation U.S. congressmen. </p>
<p>In 1964, <a href="https://www.usccr.gov/files/pubs/msdelta/ch3.htm">less than 7%</a> of the state’s Black population in Mississippi was registered to vote, despite the fact that nearly 40% of the state’s population was Black.</p>
<h2>LBJ’s Southern problem</h2>
<p>Hamer’s challenge of the segregated delegation couldn’t have come at a worse time for President Lyndon Johnson. </p>
<p>Locked at the time in a reelection campaign against right-wing conservative Barry Goldwater, Johnson <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/2023/jan/22/we-may-have-lost-the-south-lbj-democrats-civil-rights-act-1964-bill-moyers">feared losing</a> Southern Democratic politicians and voters in the upcoming presidential election.</p>
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<img alt="A white man is shaking the hands of a Black man as a crowd of other men stand behind them." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568329/original/file-20240108-19-jsmytv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568329/original/file-20240108-19-jsmytv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568329/original/file-20240108-19-jsmytv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568329/original/file-20240108-19-jsmytv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568329/original/file-20240108-19-jsmytv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568329/original/file-20240108-19-jsmytv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568329/original/file-20240108-19-jsmytv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">President Lyndon B. Johnson, left, shakes hands with Martin Luther King Jr. after signing the Civil Rights Act on July 3, 1964, at the White House.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-lyndon-johnson-shakes-hands-with-the-us-clergyman-news-photo/150253569?adppopup=true">AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>The fight in Mississippi erupted on the national stage when television networks broadcast Hamer’s Aug. 22, 1964, testimony before the <a href="https://americanradioworks.publicradio.org/features/sayitplain/flhamer.html">Democratic Convention Credentials Committee</a>, which determined who was qualified to serve as a state delegate. In her bid to get the committee to recognize her political party, Hamer talked about the second-class, often violent, treatment afforded Black people.</p>
<p>“All of this is on account of we want to register, to become first-class citizens,” <a href="https://americanradioworks.publicradio.org/features/sayitplain/flhamer.html">she said</a>. </p>
<p>To <a href="https://americanradioworks.publicradio.org/features/sayitplain/flhamer.html">prevent further testimony</a> from Hamer that would further incense Southern Democrats, Johnson immediately held an impromptu press conference that would divert network television attention away from Hamer. </p>
<p>Despite Johnson’s tactics, <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/fannie-lou-hamers-dauntless-fight-for-black-americans-right-vote-180975610/">Hamer’s story</a> still spread throughout the nation in part because of a series of rallies held in Northern cities, including the one in Harlem.</p>
<p>“The truth is the only thing going to free us,” Hamer said during the speech in Harlem. “When I was testifying before the Credentials Committee, I was cut off because they hate to see what they been knowing all the time, and that’s the truth.”</p>
<h2>Sick and tired</h2>
<p>Born on Oct. 6, 1917, in Montgomery County, Mississippi, Hamer was the 20th and last child of sharecroppers Lou Ella and James Townsend. She began picking cotton at the age of 6, and she would be forced to leave school shortly afterward to help her family eke out a living. </p>
<p>“We would work 10 and 11 hours a day for three lousy dollars,” Hamer once said. </p>
<p>In 1961, while undergoing surgery to remove a uterine tumor, Hamer received a hysterectomy by a white doctor without her consent. The forced sterilization was one of the things that prompted Hamer to join the Civil Rights Movement. </p>
<p>In the summer of 1962, Hamer attended her first meeting of the <a href="https://blogs.loc.gov/law/2021/02/stunned-by-her-thunder-fannie-lou-hamer/">Student Non-Violent Coordinating Committee</a>, a civil rights group of mostly Black college students who organized nonviolent protests against racial segregation and provided voter registration training. On Aug. 31, 1962, Hamer and 17 others decided to put their training to use by trying to register to vote at the Indianola, Mississippi, courthouse. </p>
<p>Of the 18 people, 16 were not allowed to take the test required for voter registration. Only Hamer and one other were allowed to take it – and both failed. These literacy tests consisted of <a href="https://jimcrowmuseum.ferris.edu/pdfs-docs/origins/ms-littest55.pdf">reading and interpreting</a> portions of the state constitution, such as the one on habeas corpus, a constitutional right to protect a person against illegal imprisonment. </p>
<p>Dejected, the group was further harassed when local police stopped their bus and fined them $100 for an overblown charge that the <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/freedomsummer-hamer/">bus was too yellow</a>.</p>
<p>The insults and constant fear of violence were examples of day-to-day life for Black people in Mississippi, a story Hamer argued was tragic, unconstitutional and sadly all too well-known.</p>
<p>“And you can always hear this long sob story,” <a href="https://awpc.cattcenter.iastate.edu/2019/08/09/im-sick-and-tired-of-being-sick-and-tired-dec-20-1964/">she said</a>. “For 300 years, we’ve given them time. And I’ve been tired so long, now I am sick and tired of being sick and tired, and we want a change.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214527/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marlee Bunch does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Fannie Lou Hamer became one of the most respected civil rights leaders during the 1960s in part because of her resistance to racist voting laws in Mississippi.Marlee Bunch, Staff K-12 Initiatives, Office of the Chancellor, University of Illinois at Urbana-ChampaignLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2262012024-03-25T15:10:00Z2024-03-25T15:10:00ZSenegal: Macky Sall’s reputation is dented, but the former president did a lot at home and abroad<p><a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Macky-Sall">Macky Sall</a>’s legacy as Senegal’s president since 2012 became more complex in his last year in office. The year was so filled with transgressions that they appeared to have tarnished his reputation indelibly. </p>
<p>For some months he gave the impression to his adversaries and critics that he had <a href="https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/OXAN-DB278700/full/html">third-term ambitions</a> – not uncommon in contemporary west African politics. </p>
<p>A public outcry followed his <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/3/senegals-macky-sall-postpones-presidential-election">decision</a> on 3 February 2024 to postpone the polls that had originally been scheduled for three weeks later. Then his deputies in the national assembly <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/6/senegal-parliament-delays-election-to-december-15-after-chaotic-vote">voted unanimously</a> to postpone the elections and prolong Sall’s term in office until December. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/macky-sall-throws-senegals-democratic-credentials-into-doubt-222923">Macky Sall throws Senegal's democratic credentials into doubt</a>
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<p>On 6 March, the country’s Constitutional Council <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/eye-on-africa/20240215-senegal-constitutional-council-rules-election-delay-unlawful">ruled</a> that the delay was unconstitutional and that the elections would have to be held before 6 April <strong>before April 2 rather</strong>, when Sall’s presidential term expires. </p>
<p>In compliance, Sall slated Senegal’s election for <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-68497489">24 March</a>. With that decision, the danger of an authoritarian drift in Senegal appears to have been averted. </p>
<p>The time has therefore come for a more reasoned evaluation of his eight years in office.</p>
<p>I’ve been an <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/douglas-yates-1462326">observer</a> of Senegalese politics since the late 1990s, doing democracy building for the US Information Agency’s Africa Regional Bureau, teaching African politics to graduate students in Paris, and commenting in the media on developments in Senegalese politics. </p>
<p>Based on my experience, I would argue that Sall’s presidential terms have made some economic, domestic and international achievements worth remembering now, in these days of suspense and doubt. </p>
<p>In my view the legacy of <a href="https://www.presidence.sn/en/presidency/biography">Macky Sall</a> has been saved. Or at least that is how it appears.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/2024-senegal-election-crisis-points-to-deeper-issues-with-macky-sall-and-his-preferred-successor-223035">2024 Senegal election crisis points to deeper issues with Macky Sall and his preferred successor</a>
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<h2>What he leaves behind</h2>
<p>Among his presidential legacies are major infrastructure projects, including airports, a better rail system and industrial parks. </p>
<p>Senegal’s airports were in a deplorable condition when he came to office. The country had 20 airports, but only nine had paved runways. In their poor state, these airports did not attract the major international business flyers who could set up businesses and hire the country’s educated workforce or collaborate with its innovative entrepreneurs.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nrv-norvia.com/en/projects/blaise-diagne-international-airport">Blaise Diagne International Airport</a>, named after the first black African elected to France’s parliament in 1914, opened in December 2017. The project, which was started in 2007 by his predecessor, Abdoulaye Wade, was completed by Sall. </p>
<p>Located near the capital, Dakar, with easy access via a modern freeway, it has boosted passenger mobility and freight transport. The national airline, <a href="https://flyairsenegal.com/en/home/">Air Senegal</a>, is based here. It reaches more than 20 destinations in 18 countries. </p>
<p>Sall also built the country’s first regional express train, the <a href="https://www.railway-technology.com/projects/dakar-regional-express-train/">Train Express Regional</a>, an airport rail link that connects Dakar with a major new industrial park (also built during Sall’s tenure) and the Blaise Diagne International Airport. </p>
<p>Sall also strengthened the regional airport hubs of the country. He spearheaded the <a href="https://www.transcon.sn/en/project-intro/project-objectives">reconstruction</a> of five regional airports within Senegal. </p>
<p>The Diamniadio Industrial Park, 30km east of Dakar, financed by loans from Eximbank China, was completed in 2023. The park is a flagship industrial project of Sall’s industrialisation strategy for Senegal. </p>
<p>The new park is positioned at the heart of a network of special economic zones, including Diass, Bargny, Sendou and Ndayane. </p>
<p>Enterprises from multiple fields, including pharmaceuticals, electronic appliances and textiles, are setting up offices in the park, which is expected to manufacture high-quality products that meet local needs. </p>
<p>The airports, trains and industrial parks are expected by Sall’s supporters to make a real contribution to Senegal’s transformation from post-colonial peanut exporter to import-substitution manufacturing hub.</p>
<p>In my view, what Sall leaves behind is substantial, particularly when compared with the highly <a href="https://www.npr.org/2010/01/05/122220923/for-many-in-senegal-statue-is-a-monumental-failure">controversial African Renaissance Monument</a> of his predecessor Abdoulaye Wade. The 171-foot-tall bronze statue located on top of a hill towering over Dakar, built by a North Korean firm, has contributed little or no value to the country’s economy.</p>
<p>Sall has also made some contributions to Senegal’s reputation abroad, positioning himself as a respected and influential player on the international stage. As president of the regional economic body Ecowas in <a href="https://www.presidence.sn/en/newsroom/senegals-place-in-ecowas_1122">2015-2016</a>, he made improving economic integration the focus of his term. </p>
<p>He also worked to build closer relations with other international organisations, including the G7, G20 and the African Union. While chairman of the AU from 2022 to 2023 he <a href="https://www.forbesafrica.com/opinion/op-ed/2023/07/30/african-union-must-be-in-the-g20/">lobbied</a> for inclusion of the African Union in the G20, complaining that South Africa was the continent’s only member of any economic forum of international importance. </p>
<p>In his <a href="https://au.int/en/pressreleases/20220920/77th-session-united-nations-general-assembly-address-he-macky-sall">address</a> to the United Nations General Assembly, he championed the cause of the continent. There was no excuse, he said, for failing to ensure consistent African representation in the world’s key decision-making bodies. </p>
<p>He emphasised the importance of increased funding from developed countries for climate adaptation initiatives in developing countries, particularly those in Africa.</p>
<p>Sall’s management of the <a href="https://www.who.int/health-topics/coronavirus#tab=tab_1">COVID crisis</a>, which reached Senegal in March 2020, was his first major test of leadership. Despite its limited resources, Senegal <a href="https://www.devex.com/news/how-senegal-has-set-the-standard-on-covid-19-98266">outperformed</a> many wealthier countries in its COVID pandemic response, thanks to Sall’s leadership.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/senegals-internet-shutdowns-are-another-sign-of-a-democracy-in-peril-207443">Senegal's internet shutdowns are another sign of a democracy in peril</a>
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<h2>Contribution to Senegal’s democratic tradition</h2>
<p>His important legacy will be his participation in the democratic tradition of Senegal. </p>
<p>Firstly, he took on Abdoulaye Wade’s dynastic ambitions to name his son Karim Wade as the heir apparent. Sall then went on to <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/le-monde-africa/article/2024/02/23/senegalese-president-macky-sall-promises-to-step-down-but-does-not-set-election-date_6551927_124.html">respect</a> his two-term limit on the presidency. This means he will soon hand power over to a successor, maintaining a unique and <a href="https://2012-2017.usaid.gov/senegal/newsroom/fact-sheets/senegal-democracy-and-governance-fact-sheet">uninterrupted tradition</a> of power transition in one of west Africa’s most stable democracies. </p>
<p>It hasn’t all been plain sailing. In recent years, the temptation of power seemed to have overwhelmed Sall. He started giving out <a href="https://www.africaintelligence.com/west-africa/2023/03/02/paris-and-washington-fret-over-macky-sall-s-third-term-ambitions,109919519-eve">troubling signs</a> of his desire to remain in office beyond his constitutional mandate.</p>
<p>Then, after testing the waters and finding public opinion was strongly opposed to his violating the limits that he himself had imposed while in the opposition to his predecessor, he <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-66093983">declined</a> to present himself for elections. Instead, he endorsed the candidacy of his <a href="https://www.rfi.fr/en/africa/20231222-senegalese-pm-amadou-ba-named-as-ruling-party-s-presidential-candidate">then-prime minister Amadou Ba</a>. </p>
<p>But this was followed by a series of arrests of his most vocal opponents, in particular the popular social media celebrity <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-68562465">Ousmane Sonko</a>. </p>
<p>More than <a href="https://www.google.com/search?q=How+many+dead+in+Senegal+protests&rlz=1C1ONGR_frFR949FR949&oq=How+many+dead+in+Senegal+protests&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOTIHCAEQIRigATIHCAIQIRigAdIBCDQzNDJqMGo3qAIAsAIA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8">350 protestors</a> were arrested during demonstrations in March 2021 and June 2023. At least 23 died. </p>
<p>Then came his last-minute presidential decree <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/le-monde-africa/article/2024/02/05/senegal-president-macky-sall-postpones-election-and-his-departure-from-the-presidency_6494443_124.html">postponing</a> the election earlier scheduled for 25 February. </p>
<p>This was followed by <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/le-monde-africa/article/2024/02/10/senegal-student-killed-in-protest-against-election-postponement_6510579_124.html">democracy protests</a> and by violent police repression of urban protests, which resulted in civilian deaths. </p>
<p>After protests, Sall made another extraordinary about-turn. He <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/africa/senegals-president-pledges-to-comply-with-constitutional-councils-ruling-hold-presidential-poll-soon/3139996#">announced</a> that he would respect the Constitutional Court decision, which denied him the right to prolong his presidential mandate and required that elections be held before 6 April. </p>
<p>In doing so he preserved the system of checks and balances in Senegal. In addition, his decision to <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20240315-senegal-s-top-opposition-leaders-sonko-faye-released-from-prison-says-lawyer">release</a> Sonko and his other opponents from prison and grant them amnesty has preserved the space for democratic opposition and civil liberties.</p>
<p>Sall’s legacy as a voice of Africa may offer him a lateral promotion from the presidency of Senegal to the seat of some international organisation.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226201/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Douglas Yates does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With the conduct of the 24 March elections, Senegal’s President Macky Sall appears to have saved his legacy.Douglas Yates, Professor of Political Science , American Graduate School in Paris (AGS)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2263152024-03-25T01:28:21Z2024-03-25T01:28:21ZCelebrities, influencers, loopholes: online gambling advertising faces an uncertain future in Australia<p>Sports betting is most popular among <a href="https://aifs.gov.au/research/research-reports/gambling-activity-australia">Australian young people</a> than any other age group, and this trend has only increased over the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10899-024-10282-x">past 15 years</a>.</p>
<p>Young males, in particular, are the group most likely to participate in sports betting and face a higher risk of developing gambling issues. </p>
<p>Environmental factors, such as advertising, can make young people more likely to bet on sports. So regulation is essential if we want to prevent young people from gambling-related harm.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/premier-leagues-front-of-shirt-gambling-ad-ban-is-a-flawed-approach-australia-should-learn-from-it-204105">Premier League’s front-of-shirt gambling ad ban is a flawed approach. Australia should learn from it</a>
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<h2>Advertising, promotions and marketing techniques</h2>
<p>Advertising serves <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/002224377601300110">two different purposes</a>. There is the advertising that companies use to set their products apart from their competitors (known as competitive advertising). There is also the advertising companies use to make people more interested in a product (known as primary demand advertising).</p>
<p>Sports betting companies use competitive advertising by promoting their products’ unique features, such as chat features and live match updates, or by offering promotions, such as bonus bets and deposit matches. This type of advertising is most likely to appeal to people who are already involved in sports betting. They are looking for more affordable ways to bet, ways to maximise their winnings, and better features. </p>
<p>Promotions are an effective way to make people <a href="https://doi.org/10.1556/2006.7.2018.99">bet more</a>. They may be <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11469-023-01173-0">more likely</a> to influence people who gamble to risky levels. Because of this, Australia has taken steps to <a href="https://www.dss.gov.au/communities-and-vulnerable-people-programs-services-gambling/gambling-reforms">ban some of these promotions</a>, including sign-up and refer-a-friend offers.</p>
<p>Sports betting companies use a variety of marketing strategies to generate interest in sports betting. For example, they often advertise during live sports broadcasts to generate interest in sports gambling. </p>
<p>This serves two purposes: it presents sports betting as a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/16066359.2017.1353082">normal part</a> of being a sports fan and aligns sports betting with the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/14459795.2021.1937274">positive values</a> people associate with sports, such as fairness, success and competence.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/K4fa_ZT8m8g?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Young males, in particular, are the group most likely to participate in sports betting.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>The impact of celebrities and influencers</h2>
<p>Sports betting companies often feature <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/heapro/daae012">celebrities and athletes</a> in their advertising. This can enhance the appeal of betting, as people transfer their favourable opinions of celebrities and athletes to sports betting. </p>
<p>However, companies can use social media influencers to do this much more effectively. This is because influencers <a href="https://doi.org/10.1108/jrim-08-2021-0200">engage more</a> with their followers and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/02650487.2019.1634898">appear more relatable</a> than more well-known celebrities.</p>
<p>Companies can use influencers in various ways to promote sports betting. One approach is to pay influencers to appear in advertising campaigns, known as <a href="https://www.indeed.com/career-advice/career-development/endorsement-in-advertising">influencer endorsements</a>. </p>
<p>Another approach is <a href="https://www.goodbadmarketing.com/aiza/sponsored-content-disclosure-australia/">sponsored content</a>, where a company pays an influencer to promote its brand or product in its own content. For example, an influencer might create a video about sports betting and mention they bet with a specific betting company.</p>
<p><a href="https://mailchimp.com/marketing-glossary/content-marketing/">Content advertising</a> has become increasingly popular in the digital age as people consume more content on a daily basis. </p>
<p>Companies use this strategy by creating content that appeals to their target audience without directly advertising their products. A sports betting company might create a website that shares sports-related news, which would appeal to their target audience of sports fans. This advertising strategy cultivates brand awareness and fosters customer loyalty.</p>
<p>In essence, sports betting advertising goes beyond what people see during commercial breaks. Like all advertising, it appears wherever content is generated and wherever a brand’s target audience is expected to engage with it.</p>
<h2>The complexities of a potential ban</h2>
<p>Last year’s <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/House/Social_Policy_and_Legal_Affairs/Onlinegamblingimpacts/Report/Chapter_5_-_Gambling_advertising">parliamentary inquiry</a> into online gambling outlines recommendations for a gradual ban of online gambling advertising by 2026. Whether these recommendations are implemented remains to be seen, but it is important to recognise that advertising is now more complex and global than ever before. </p>
<p>How will this recommended ban account for influencer advertising, content advertising, or subtle references to odds on websites that provide scores and live updates of sports events?</p>
<p>How gambling advertising is defined will likely become a crucial issue. In 2018, Italy <a href="https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=c8f3839f-5841-4c90-b768-35147f686ca0">banned</a> all direct advertising for gambling. To <a href="https://pagellapolitica.it/articoli/divieto-pubblicita-scommesse">circumvent this ban</a>, betting companies established websites solely focused on sharing sports-related news content using the same name as their betting brand. This allowed them to openly advertise their betting brand during live sporting events.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-has-a-strong-hand-to-tackle-gambling-harm-will-it-go-all-in-or-fold-208749">Australia has a strong hand to tackle gambling harm. Will it go all in or fold?</a>
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<h2>A holistic approach</h2>
<p>A complete ban on gambling advertising may soon be implemented in Australia, but it is crucial to consider what exactly defines gambling advertising.</p>
<p>It’s important to involve marketers in the process of implementing an advertising ban because they have the most up-to-date knowledge of current advertising trends; policymakers and researchers might not know about them until years later. </p>
<p>This is a critical step towards preventing sports betting companies from potentially exploiting regulatory loopholes. </p>
<p>A future advertising ban must consider advances in social media marketing strategies, all of which are especially significant for young people.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226315/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gianluca Di Censo receives funding from the Office of Responsible Gambling. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Delfabbro receives funding from state and federal government agencies for research.</span></em></p>A 2023 federal government inquiry recommended a ban on gambling advertising. What needs to happen should a ban be implemented?Gianluca Di Censo, PhD Candidate, University of AdelaidePaul Delfabbro, Professor, School of Psychology, University of AdelaideLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2257762024-03-23T22:26:23Z2024-03-23T22:26:23ZTasmanians have voted in a hung parliament. What now?<p>The votes have been cast, but the helter skelter race to form the next Tasmanian government is just beginning. </p>
<p>While the results aren’t likely to be formalised for a couple of weeks, the island state’s voters <a href="https://theconversation.com/liberals-will-win-most-seats-in-tasmanian-election-but-be-short-of-a-majority-226398">haven’t given</a> Labor or the Liberals the 18 lower house seats needed to form a majority government. Overall, there has been a significant swing against the Liberal government, with the Greens and the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) likely to be the main beneficiaries.</p>
<p>The Liberals are likely to secure the most seats in the next Tasmanian parliament. Premier Jeremy Rockliff <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-23/tas-state-election-results-live-blog/103619024">declared it</a> “the fourth consecutive win” for the Liberal party. </p>
<p>However, it remains to be seen whether they can secure the support of the three or four crossbenchers they will need to form government. What is clear is that negotiations to form the next Tasmanian government will take days, or even weeks. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/liberals-will-win-most-seats-in-tasmanian-election-but-be-short-of-a-majority-226398">Liberals will win most seats in Tasmanian election, but be short of a majority</a>
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<h2>What do the numbers show so far?</h2>
<p>The next parliament looks like it will have 14 Liberals, ten from Labor, four Greens, two from the JLN, and two independents – with the remaining three seats too close to call. The final numbers will be confirmed once preferences have been distributed.</p>
<p>As expected, many Tasmanians turned away from the two major parties. The primary vote swing against the Liberal government looks to be around 12%, but Labor appears to have gained less than 1% statewide. Almost 34% of voters opted for minor parties and independents. It was a particularly strong result for the Greens, who are in with a chance of picking up the final undecided seats in at least three electorates. </p>
<p>The JLN did not perhaps do as well as expected. Their lack of a “lead” candidate in each seat meant their candidates pulled votes away from each other. </p>
<p>Both of the MPs that defected from the Liberal Party last year – leading Rockliff to call the election – failed to win back their seats as independents.</p>
<p>All this means that the process of forming the next Tasmanian government is likely to be full of twists, turns and controversy.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-jacqui-lambie-network-is-the-latest-victim-of-cybersquatting-its-the-tip-of-the-iceberg-of-negative-political-ads-online-225774">The Jacqui Lambie Network is the latest victim of 'cybersquatting'. It's the tip of the iceberg of negative political ads online</a>
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<h2>What now?</h2>
<p>During the campaign, Labor and the Liberals both ruled out offering ministries or policy concessions to independents, the JLN or the Greens in exchange for their support. Now, they may find themselves backtracking on this and coming to the negotiating table instead.</p>
<p>The two leaders struck markedly different tones in their speeches late on Saturday night. </p>
<p>Rockliff claimed victory, stating bullishly that “Tasmanians have not voted for a change of government” and that he will seek to lead a Liberal minority government. This would represent the continuation of the unstable situation he called the election to escape, depending on how the crossbench views his assumption of the Liberals’ right to continued rule. Some of the Liberal party’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-14/jacqui-lambie-slams-liberals-over-website/103581992">tactics</a> during the campaign will not have endeared them to crossbenchers – particularly those from the JLN.</p>
<p>Rebecca White did not concede defeat, but was more conciliatory. She acknowledged that minority government is likely to be the norm in Tasmania, and said that “Labor will be ready to work with the parliament to implement our agenda […] if that is the will of the people”. </p>
<p>All this is a bit ambiguous – will she go to the crossbench and attempt to cobble together a coalition? There were rumours throughout the night from journalists’ sources that this was a possibility, but nothing has been confirmed yet. Given Labor may only end up with ten seats, they’d need the support of eight crossbenchers, which would be no mean feat. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/from-power-prices-to-chocolate-fountains-the-tasmanian-election-campaign-has-been-a-promise-avalanche-225783">From power prices to chocolate fountains, the Tasmanian election campaign has been a promise avalanche</a>
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<p>Adding a bit of spice to the mix is the potential for both leaders to face challenges from within their own ranks. </p>
<p>Labor’s very small improvement on its disappointing 2021 result will be a concern for party strategists, although there is no obvious successor to White. Rockliff claimed to be “just getting started”, but may well be privately concerned about former federal senator Eric Abetz’s barnstorming entry into Tasmanian parliament. </p>
<p>On the ABC’s coverage, Abetz was quick to point out the swing against the Liberals, and highlight the need for the party to review some of its policies and decision making. </p>
<h2>And for the nation?</h2>
<p>The 2024 Tasmanian election leaves us with a couple of things to think about ahead of the next federal election. </p>
<p>Tasmania’s new parliament is just the latest piece of evidence that two-party dominance <a href="https://search.informit.org/doi/pdf/10.3316/informit.136288830999916">is waning</a> across Australia. </p>
<p>It’s true that Tasmania’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-21/hare-clark-electoral-system-explained/100062736">Hare-Clark voting system</a> makes it easier for independents and minor party candidates to get elected. However, the poor Liberal and Labor primary votes will worry federal party strategists who hoped that the 2022 <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-narrow-labor-win-and-a-teal-bath-all-the-facts-and-figures-on-the-2022-election-183359">Teal-bath</a> was a one off. </p>
<p>Certainly Bridget Archer and Andrew Wilkie will take comfort from the result where authentic, independent-minded candidates did well. It’s also clear that federal Labor have a lot of work to do in regional Tasmania if they are to retain Lyons and win back Braddon. </p>
<p>State election results haven’t always been the best predictor of federal election outcomes. However, that doesn’t mean that national party strategists will ignore what has happened in each of Tasmania’s five seats. </p>
<p>Another simmering issue is fixed parliamentary terms. Independents and <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Joint/Electoral_Matters/2019Federalelection/Report/section?id=committees%2Freportjnt%2F024439%2F75701">minor parties</a> often argue that “snap” elections disadvantage them, because they lack the ongoing resources and campaign apparatus’ of the major parties. Rockliff’s early election call <a href="https://www.themercury.com.au/news/tasmania/parties-candidates-using-ai-to-help-them-gain-an-advantage-in-2024-tasmanian-election/news-story/1954579a993971d5e30d9de1a1c333da">caused grumbling</a> to this effect from independents and minor parties in Tasmania, who felt cheated out of time to prepare. </p>
<p>All other <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-tasmanians-head-to-the-polls-liberal-premier-peter-gutwein-hopes-to-cash-in-on-covid-management-159526">states and territories</a> have fixed term parliaments. If the fallout from the Tasmanian election sparks further debate on this topic, it might <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-24/why-would-we-want-four-year-fixed-term-elections/8736832">reignite</a> the issue at the federal level.</p>
<p>But for now, let’s hope that the major parties can swallow their pride, accept that they didn’t convince Tasmanians of the need for majority government and negotiate an agreement with the crossbench. Doing so would show respect for the democratic will of the Tasmanian people and demonstrate willingness to put aside the politics and get on with addressing the state’s many challenges.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225776/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Eccleston is an appointed a member of two public advisory boards providing advice to the Tasmanian government.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Hortle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Despite a swing against it, the Liberal party has likely won the most seats, but will fall short of a majority. While the vote counting will continue, the political fight is now to form government.Robert Hortle, Research Fellow, Tasmanian Policy Exchange, University of TasmaniaRichard Eccleston, Professor of Political Science; Director, Tasmanian Policy Exchange, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2261752024-03-22T16:20:37Z2024-03-22T16:20:37ZYour brain can reveal if you’re rightwing – plus three other things it tells us about your politics<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582865/original/file-20240319-16-j5ck59.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=182%2C47%2C3013%2C1743&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-vector/human-brain-technology-background-neon-colors-2277475403">Shutterstock/MrVander</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A few years ago, the leader of Mexico’s PRI party told the New York Times that he, “would stick to tried and trusted campaign tools, like polls and political intuition”, and rely on <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/12/world/americas/mexicos-governing-party-vows-to-stop-using-neuromarketing-to-study-voters.html?_r=0">“the old-fashioned way”</a> to win the country’s election.</p>
<p>His party had been caught using neuroscience to gauge voters’ opinions about their candidate for the presidency and the party was embarrassed. Subsequently, we know from other sources the party carried on using neuroscience techniques. Someone even described their approach as <a href="http://www.alcaldesdemexico.com/notas-principales/neuropolitica-una-nueva-forma-de-ganar-elecciones">“the new way to win elections”</a>. </p>
<p>The approach is called neuropolitics and uses brain science to understand our politics. It applies the insights of neurology to explain why we take part in protests, vote for particular parties and even why we lie about our true feelings in opinion polls, potentially skewing the results to give the public a false impression of who is going to win.</p>
<p>I studied neuroscience before I gained a doctorate in political science. Back then the study of the brain was a utopian strain of research, but things have changed. And this has political implications. The Mexican case is one example of politicians exploiting neuroscience to their electoral advantage, but there are many others, which I write about in my new book The Political Brain. </p>
<p>It might seem like science fiction. But it is a fact. We already know a lot about how our brains influence our political beliefs and reveal our political views. Here are just four things your brain can reveal about your politics – and believe me, there are plenty more.</p>
<h2>1. Which politicians you like</h2>
<p>Let’s start with the basics. Advances in social neuroscience mean that we can identify the parts of the brain that get activated when you watch political advertisements – and a host of other things. We can do this because of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI scans).</p>
<p>When we think, the brain needs oxygen. This oxygen is carried around with blood. Because blood contains iron, which is magnetic, it shows up in a magnetic scanner. So, if I see photos of a person in distress, more blood will flow to an area on the side of the brain called insula. </p>
<p>To take an example, when we want to buy something – or when we like a particular election candidate – we activate a part of the brain that is called the ventral striatum. It is part of the so-called basal ganglia, a part of the brain that is associated with rewards. </p>
<p>So, if your brain is activated when you see candidate A, it is <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1509/jmr.13.0593">a cue that you will vote for him or her</a>. </p>
<p>This also works at the microlevel. When we like something, the area is bombarded with a neurotransmitter called dopamine. When we see photos or films of a candidate we like, there is more dopamine in the ventral striatum.</p>
<h2>2. If you’re centre-left</h2>
<p>We need to be cautious because the brain is a complex machine, and no single area is responsible for how we think. But some areas are associated with political thinking. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3092984/">study</a> – co-written by actor <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/colin-firth-actor-writer-academy-award-winner-scientist-14276499/#:%7E:text=A%20study%20on%20political%20orientation,but%20about%20which%20I'm">Colin Firth</a> – found that “greater liberalism [left-wing thinking] was associated with increased grey matter volume in the anterior cingulate cortex”. This part of the brain is associated with empathy. So, maybe this research proves that those on the left are <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3092984/">more empathetic.</a>. </p>
<p>We should perhaps add that The King’s Speech, Pride and Prejudice and Bridget Jones’ Diary star was guest editing the BBC radio programme Today when he commissioned researchers to carry out the study. He doesn’t have a secret second career as a neuroscientist, though the work he proposed is legitimate science that has been through rigorous peer review and published in a top biology journal.</p>
<h2>3. If you’re centre-right</h2>
<p>That was the leftwing brain. What about conservatives or the centre-right? Well, individuals of this persuasion tend to be sceptical of change and cautious when they make choices. The brain region associated with these traits is the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, on the topside of the brain.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/five-signs-that-you-might-be-rightwing-221930">Five signs that you might be rightwing</a>
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<p>Sure enough, researchers found that this part was activated when subjects were exposed to video clips with political messages or images of people living <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17470910902860308?casa_token=PhgOQe0CEEQAAAAA:DdtdJf5-r2-li20J9Nmxwu0wTMxGmMMTUl7bjEGwvDCQucU20hhrJHgZkCYDXh_VzFqbHjfi65urKA">alternative lifestyles</a> – something that perhaps suggests a negative response to these lifestyles. </p>
<h2>4. If you’re receptive to authoritarianism</h2>
<p>So far we have looked at moderate leftists and moderate conservatives, but some people take more extreme positions. Some describe themselves as religious fundamentalists and are willing to use violence to stop abortion, for example. Others self-identify with the far right of the political spectrum.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/22612576/">small study of these people</a> found that their brains – when under the fMRI scanner – show signs of damage to the so-called ventro-medial prefrontal cortex. This is an area that is associated with social intelligence and tolerance. </p>
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<img alt="An illustration of a brain" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582851/original/file-20240319-9351-5z2yxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582851/original/file-20240319-9351-5z2yxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582851/original/file-20240319-9351-5z2yxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582851/original/file-20240319-9351-5z2yxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582851/original/file-20240319-9351-5z2yxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=606&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582851/original/file-20240319-9351-5z2yxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=606&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582851/original/file-20240319-9351-5z2yxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=606&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Are the routes to fascism all in our heads?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/Betacam-SP</span></span>
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<p>It is tempting to draw conclusions, but it should be added that those with extreme views on both the far right and the far left <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/behavioral-and-brain-sciences/article/differences-in-negativity-bias-underlie-variations-in-political-ideology/72A29464D2FD037B03F7485616929560">show activation of the amygdala</a> when they are shown clips of political opponents. Amygdala is the part of the brain that kicks in if we are in mortal danger, such as when we see a snake.</p>
<h2>The predicting brain</h2>
<p>Some might find this scary. Maybe it is. Whatever you think, we already know that we can <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4245707/">predict ideology with up to 85% accuracy</a>.</p>
<p>Neuropolitics is certainly weird, and perhaps even worrying but when used to in pure research, it opens the prospect of combining the natural sciences with the moral sciences. A bit like the philosopher <a href="https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/4705">David Hume</a> dreamed of doing in the 18th century, when he endeavoured to “introduce the experimental Method of Reasoning into Moral Subjects”, we too can combine science and philosophy.</p>
<p>You might choose to ignore it. But, it is already being used in the real world of political advertising. It is no longer fiction. when it is abused, it can be dangerous. That’s why we need to talk about it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226175/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matt Qvortrup does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Neuropolitics is the science of using your brain activity to predict your political preferences. You might not like it but it’s already in use.Matt Qvortrup, Chair of Applied Political Science, Coventry UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2257832024-03-20T19:04:17Z2024-03-20T19:04:17ZFrom power prices to chocolate fountains, the Tasmanian election campaign has been a promise avalanche<p>The billboards are fading in the harsh sun. Antony Green is doing his vocal warm-up exercises. The 2024 Tasmanian election campaign is almost done and it’s now over to the voters. </p>
<p>The five-week campaign has been largely uninspiring but not without notable moments, from wildcard independents to promises of the world’s largest chocolate fountain. </p>
<p>So what’s the state of play going into election day? Which announcements have cut through, and what’s been lost in the flood of promises? And of course, what might we prefer to forget?</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/dire-polls-for-labor-in-tasmania-and-queensland-with-elections-upcoming-225455">Dire polls for Labor in Tasmania and Queensland with elections upcoming</a>
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<h2>The key players</h2>
<p>Tasmania has five electorates: Bass, Braddon, Clark, Franklin, and Lyons. Each of these will <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-24/peg-putt-1998-tasmanian-parliament-numbers-chair-protest/101689536">elect seven members</a> to the lower house for the first time since 1998, when each electorate was reduced to five seats. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Tasmania’s lower house is being restored to 35 seats.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Jeremy Rockliff is leader of the Liberal Party (there’s no Coalition down south), and has been premier since April 2022. </p>
<p>He’s had a rough ride. There have been several cabinet reshuffles, and he’s been forced to govern in minority since May 2023, when two of his MPs <a href="https://theconversation.com/tasmania-is-going-to-an-early-election-will-the-countrys-last-liberal-state-be-no-more-216533">quit the party</a> to sit on the crossbench. He called the election in a bid to re-establish his parliamentary majority.</p>
<p>In the opposite camp, Rebecca White is leader of the Labor Party, and will be hoping to avoid her third straight electoral defeat. Like Rockliff, the past few years haven’t been smooth sailing for White and Labor. </p>
<p>She resigned as party leader after the 2021 election defeat and was replaced by David O’Byrne. However, O’Byrne was forced to quit three weeks later following a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-30/labor-investigates-sexual-harassment-claims-against-david-obyrne/100253560">sexual harassment claim</a>, and White was re-elected as leader. She and Labor have struggled to cut through during the election campaign.</p>
<p>Rosalie Woodruff is the leader of the Greens, which have long been the third party in Tasmania. Woodruff took over from Cassy O’Connor in July 2023, but is something of an unknown quantity, with a lower public profile than previous Greens leaders.</p>
<p>Here’s where things get interesting. This election will see the highest number of independents (29) contesting a Tasmanian election for decades. </p>
<p>While there are too many to list them all, ones to keep an eye on include: </p>
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<li><p>John Tucker and Lara Alexander (the Liberal MPs who quit in 2023)</p></li>
<li><p>David O’Byrne (former Labor leader)</p></li>
<li><p>Kristie Johnson (a sitting independent MP) </p></li>
<li><p>Sue Hickey (former Hobart Lord Mayor, former Liberal then independent MP).</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Finally, there’s the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN), which is running candidates in all seats except Clark. The JLN made the controversial decision not to release any policies, instead pitching themselves as a group of down-to-earth people that wants to “keep the bastards honest”. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/tasmania-is-going-to-an-early-election-will-the-countrys-last-liberal-state-be-no-more-216533">Tasmania is going to an early election. Will the country's last Liberal state be no more?</a>
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<h2>Which issues have dominated the campaign?</h2>
<p>Polling during the campaign showed the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-15/tas-stateline-election-issues-influencing-voters/103463516">top concerns</a> for most Tasmanian voters were health care and cost of living. Labor and Liberal both put forward several measures aimed at these areas, among others. </p>
<p>Millions of dollars have been promised with the enthusiasm of a discount carpet warehouse closing-down sale – but this <a href="https://www.themercury.com.au/news/tasmania/lyons-is-tasmanias-largest-geographical-electorate-covering-many-regional-areas/news-story/c116fd291dc9b8eb76efc2fe363e49ea">hasn’t necessarily</a> helped win votes. In fact, this sort of policy bonanza can confuse and overwhelm voters.</p>
<p>In an ideal world, we would each decide our vote by comparing each candidate or party’s full set of policies, and figuring out which one best matches our own values. But who has time for that? </p>
<p>In reality, people typically vote based on a combination of <a href="https://daily.jstor.org/what-makes-us-vote-the-way-we-do/">other things</a>, including specific, controversial issues, eye-catching headlines, and candidates’ personalities. This is how democracies tend to work all over the world. </p>
<p>So what were the things that might have shifted votes during this campaign? </p>
<p>The long-running divide in Tasmanian society between environmental conservation and economic development remains, meaning voters may decide whom to side with depending on each party’s stance on salmon farming or the proposed new AFL stadium, for example. </p>
<p>Some influential issues are hyper-local, such as a long-closed <a href="https://www.themercury.com.au/news/tasmania/labor-makes-election-promise-of-5m-to-repair-and-reopen-glenorchy-pool/news-story/88a4ff6da7046cea183d4ac962eecc06">community pool</a>. </p>
<p>There have been a few “headline grabbers” during the campaign, designed to stick in the minds of undecided voters. The best example of this is the Liberals’ promise to build the world’s largest <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/mar/10/pure-imagination-tasmanian-premier-vows-to-build-worlds-largest-chocolate-fountain-if-re-elected">chocolate fountain</a> if elected. Labor’s <a href="https://taslabor.org.au/our-plan/power-prices/">refrain</a> “Tasmanian prices for Tasmanian power” is also in the mix. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1766562220194877696"}"></div></p>
<p>The final thing that may sway voters is what <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/film/2022/mar/19/its-the-vibe-25-years-on-how-the-castle-became-an-australian-classic#:%7E:text=For%20some%2C%20the%20most%20well,the%20vibe%2C%E2%80%9D%20says%20Denuto.">Dennis Denuto</a> would call “the vibe” around candidates. </p>
<p>Rockliff has benefited from the perception that he’s a “<a href="https://www.themercury.com.au/news/opinion/wooley-libs-launched-back-in-time-by-nice-guy-jrock/news-story/acbafc64fae580379192f2e65ea8aa37">nice guy</a>” in tough circumstances, while White has struggled to separate her brand from the O’Byrne controversy and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-30/analysis-labor-strategy-questions-after-winter-snub/100037140">earlier Labor factional fighting</a>.</p>
<p>The Greens have been doorknocking hard, particularly in the state’s <a href="https://www.crikey.com.au/2024/03/15/tasmanian-greens-state-election-braddon/">northwest</a>. That personal contact may help them get a new candidate across the line. </p>
<p>The JLN has leaned heavily on their namesake’s forceful “battler” personality. Each independent has tried to build their own brand, typically by focusing on a specific issue or spruiking their ability to stand up to the major parties. It’s tricky to tell how successful these efforts have been – the proof will be in the votes. </p>
<h2>The lowlights</h2>
<p>There have been a few lowlights during the campaign. First prize goes to the fake JLN site <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-14/jacqui-lambie-slams-liberals-over-website/103581992">set up</a> by the Liberal Party. This particular piece of skulduggery is not against electoral law, but it’s certainly against the spirit of democracy. It might not have the desired effect: this type of negative campaigning can <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-jacqui-lambie-network-is-the-latest-victim-of-cybersquatting-its-the-tip-of-the-iceberg-of-negative-political-ads-online-225774">turn voters away</a> from the offending party.</p>
<p>Another disappointing aspect of the campaign was Rockliff and White repeatedly ruling out offering ministries or policy concessions to independents, the JLN, or the Greens in exchange for their support. This is due to the perceived failure of <a href="https://www.aspg.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/33_2-Michael-Lester.pdf">previous power-sharing</a> deals in Tasmania. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-jacqui-lambie-network-is-the-latest-victim-of-cybersquatting-its-the-tip-of-the-iceberg-of-negative-political-ads-online-225774">The Jacqui Lambie Network is the latest victim of 'cybersquatting'. It's the tip of the iceberg of negative political ads online</a>
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<p>Rockliff even proposed that MPs who quit their party should be <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-19/experts-respond-to-tas-liberals-stability-clause/103599746">booted out</a> of parliament and replaced with a candidate from the same party – a stunt that ignores that our political system is based on candidates being elected to represent a constituency, not a party. </p>
<p>Rockliff and White may come to regret their strident rhetoric when the votes are counted. It looks <a href="https://theconversation.com/dire-polls-for-labor-in-tasmania-and-queensland-with-elections-upcoming-225455">very unlikely</a> either party will win the 18 seats needed to form a majority government.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225783/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Hortle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Tasmanians head to the polls on Saturday in an election that was called more than a year early. After a largely uninspiring campaign, here’s your guide to state election.Robert Hortle, Research Fellow, Tasmanian Policy Exchange, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2207982024-03-20T16:35:51Z2024-03-20T16:35:51ZVaughan Gething elected as Wales’ new first minister – but challenges have just begun for Welsh Labour<p><a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-68500807">Vaughan Gething</a> is Wales’ new first minister after winning the Welsh Labour leadership election. Gething narrowly beat his opponent, Jeremy Miles, with 51.7% of the vote, and in so doing becomes the first black leader of any European nation.</p>
<p>Gething was voted in by the Senedd (Welsh parliament) and replaces <a href="https://theconversation.com/mark-drakeford-what-the-resignation-of-wales-first-minister-means-for-the-country-and-the-labour-party-219887">Mark Drakeford</a> who had been first minister since 2018.</p>
<p>The leadership race itself was not one that was lit up by different political visions or ideologically charged debates. Both contenders are solicitors by trade, fairly centrist in terms of their rhetoric and political commitments, and without glaring contrasts in their manifestos. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-68336716">Gething</a> was born in Zambia in 1974, to a Welsh father and Zambian mother. They moved to the UK when he was four, and he attended university in Aberystwyth and Cardiff before pursuing his legal career. He was first elected to the Senedd in 2011, representing the Cardiff South and Penarth constituency, and rose up the ministerial ladder thereafter. </p>
<p>Gething will be the fifth first minister since Welsh devolution in 1999. He inherits a Labour party which, overall, has won every election in Wales <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-63636856">since 1922</a>. There is, nevertheless, a little more to the story, which suggests the future for Welsh Labour may be less straightforward than either Gething or his party would have hoped.</p>
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<p>This is in part due to the problems that Welsh Labour have hit upon towards the end of the tenure of <a href="https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/news-opinion/mark-drakeford-departing-first-minister-28812852">Drakeford</a>. There is <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4n789jv49jo">ongoing controversy</a> over 20mph speed limits in Wales and a <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-68563949">UK COVID inquiry</a> that has drawn our attention to the enthusiasm of Welsh Labour for avoiding a Wales-specific investigation. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-are-farmers-up-in-arms-the-view-from-wales-223901">farmers</a> are protesting against the Welsh government’s proposed scheme to replace the EU’s common agricultural policy.</p>
<p>While Drakeford has been subject to the most criticism on these matters, Gething was unable to avoid some of the fallout from the pandemic. He recently had a tough time at the COVID inquiry when he <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-68535441#">admitted</a> all his pandemic WhatsApp messages had disappeared after his official phone was wiped. Gething described it as a “matter of real embarrassment”.</p>
<p>His <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-68590453">leadership bid</a> was also hit by scandal when it emerged that he had taken a £200,000 donation for his campaign from a company run by a man twice convicted of environmental offences. In 2016, he had asked Natural Resources Wales (the government body responsible for environmental issues) to ease restrictions on the company in question. </p>
<p>Both Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives have called on Gething to return the money, but he has so far rejected those calls.</p>
<p>Jeremy Miles also <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-68109598">criticised</a> the way Wales’ largest union declared its support for Gething during the leadership contest. Unite had deemed Miles ineligible for its support as he had not been a lay union official. This was seen as a “stitch up” among Miles’ supporters and Gething will have to extend them an olive branch as he takes up his new role.</p>
<p>Assuming Gething is able to negotiate these choppy waters as his leadership sets sail, a victory for Labour in the next Westminster general election is unlikely to ease the pressure. Given Gething’s centrism he is likely to be perceived as a willing party in delivering <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/dec/03/keir-starmer-labour-wont-turn-on-spending-taps-wins-election">Starmer’s agenda</a>. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1768948460038877577"}"></div></p>
<p>There will be other challenges for Gething to negotiate, beyond the immediate need <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/mar/18/vaughan-gething-win-wales-welsh-labour-leader">to placate</a> those on the losing side of the contest. In particular his management of internal Welsh Labour difference will be significant. As with many successful parties, there are elements of a coalition that maintain it and Gething must ensure that balance.</p>
<p>He must contend with the cultural boundaries between the more Anglicised and urban south and east, and the more Welsh-speaking and often more rural areas of the west and north. While the latter areas do not deliver the core vote for Labour, their support in those areas helps to maintain their predominance through the partial proportional representation system of the Senedd.</p>
<p>An additional layer of complexity has emerged in the last five years as <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-does-wales-future-hold-new-report-maps-options-for-more-devolution-federal-and-independent-futures-221503">independence</a> has become a concrete concern in Welsh politics. Somewhat surprisingly for a unionist party, there is more or less a <a href="https://nation.cymru/news/almost-half-pro-independence-voters-chose-labour-at-senedd-election/">50-50 split</a> among Labour voters on the question. Drakeford was able to play to both sides of the argument. He was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/29/uk-could-break-up-unless-it-is-rebuilt-as-solidarity-union-says-mark-drakeford">clear</a> in his fundamental unionism but also articulated doubts about its longevity. How Gething negotiates the question may be telling.</p>
<p>For now what is beyond doubt is that the Welsh Labour brand has been damaged. Gething’s actions are not in isolation but rather a function of a party culture of permissiveness. With a light having been shone on its inner workings, they are in danger of losing the moral high ground, so often used to persuade Welsh voters to back them to protect them from the Tories. </p>
<p>In many ways a skilled operator, who has been almost laser-like in surmounting significant barriers and achieving his goal, Gething now faces a very different set of challenges.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220798/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Huw L Williams is a member of the Green Party.</span></em></p>Vaughan Gething succeeds Mark Drakeford as Welsh first minister, following a vote in the Senedd.Huw L Williams, Reader in Political Philosophy, Cardiff UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2213032024-03-19T19:42:52Z2024-03-19T19:42:52ZLiberalism is in crisis. A new book traces how we got here, but lets neoliberal ideologues off the hook<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582433/original/file-20240318-22-yg77o7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C0%2C4396%2C1855&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Haruki Yui/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>What is post-liberalism? That is no simple question, though the simplest responses are given by those who identify with it as a movement. </p>
<p>Adrian Pabst, author of the <a href="https://www.wiley.com/en-au/Postliberal+Politics%3A+The+Coming+Era+of+Renewal-p-9781509546817">most influential book</a> on the subject, proposes it as a way out of the impasse created by the excesses of hyper-capitalism on the right and identity politics on the left. He calls for a renewed focus on the collective identities of community, family and location. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>How We Became Post-Liberal – Russell Blackford (Bloomsbury)</em></p>
<hr>
<p>British journalist David Goodhart envisages an “<a href="https://demos.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/apostliberalfuture.pdf">embedded individualism</a>”, which acknowledges the messy realities of contemporary life, while insisting on traditional values of interdependence, mutual trust and social duty.</p>
<p>Both writers may be seen as part of a distinctly British mode of centrism, which combines left-wing commitments to economic justice and workers’ rights with principles of social conservatism. As advocates for consensus politics, they present their views with a reasoned account of the factors contributing to the crisis in liberalism, avoiding shrill statements and overly contentious assertions.</p>
<p>But the movement has less temperate adherents. In the United States, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/podcasts/opinion-free-expression/a-postliberal-future/6199298e-6b01-44aa-9e3a-d272ba2fcea3">Patrick Deneen</a> has made the title of his book <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/618154/regime-change-by-patrick-j-deneen/">Regime Change</a> a rallying cry, gaining him an enthusiastic audience among some Republicans in Washington. </p>
<p>The “regime” Deneen wants to change is the supposed cultural and institutional dominance of social liberalism – a longstanding shibboleth of the American right. He talks of a “distinct and pernicious” ruling class arisen from college campus liberals, who have created a new tyranny under which individual rights are the be-all and end-all. </p>
<p>The concept of post-liberalism, then, is ideologically ambiguous. It has the potential to embrace ideas from both left and right. Its one common assumption is that traditional liberalism – in its economic and social versions – is in trouble.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578500/original/file-20240228-24-fudfhk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578500/original/file-20240228-24-fudfhk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578500/original/file-20240228-24-fudfhk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=939&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578500/original/file-20240228-24-fudfhk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=939&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578500/original/file-20240228-24-fudfhk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=939&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578500/original/file-20240228-24-fudfhk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1180&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578500/original/file-20240228-24-fudfhk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1180&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578500/original/file-20240228-24-fudfhk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1180&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>Russell Blackford’s <a href="https://www.bloomsbury.com/au/how-we-became-postliberal-9781350322943/">How We Became Post-Liberal</a> purports to offer a detached, historical account of why liberalism is in trouble. As its proponents are keen to anchor their principles in deep tradition, the history matters.</p>
<p>There may be no simple answer to the question of what post-liberalism is, but Blackford shows how liberalism may be easier to define, at least in its origins. </p>
<p>His first three chapters chronicle the horrors of religious persecution, from late antiquity through to the early modern period, when liberalism began to mean something more than basic tolerance. Given the strong presence of Christian advocates in the post-liberal movement, it is interesting that Blackford places his emphasis on Christianity as a major player in the history of murderous intolerance. </p>
<p>If liberalism began as a bid to reverse some of the worst tendencies in Christian tradition, what has happened to cause a second u-turn in the movement?</p>
<h2>An impossible paradox</h2>
<p>This question underpins much of the argument in Blackford’s book, which pays sustained attention to the fuller realisation of liberalism in the long 19th century, when it became the subject of moral and philosophical treatises. </p>
<p>John Stuart Mill’s <a href="https://www.penguin.com.au/books/on-liberty-9780140432077">On Liberty</a> (1859) argued for the free expression of opinion as a prerequisite to intellectual progress. Perhaps the founding work of modern liberalism, Mill’s essay has been reinvented by current advocates as a primer of post-liberalism.</p>
<p>The expansion of industrial capitalism, population growth and political revolution subjected moral thinking to radically changed conditions. Mill made the case for a shift in values that placed the individual at the centre of the picture. He emphasised the dangers of a new form of tyranny in “the moral coercion of public opinion”. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578504/original/file-20240228-26-jx645r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578504/original/file-20240228-26-jx645r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578504/original/file-20240228-26-jx645r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578504/original/file-20240228-26-jx645r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578504/original/file-20240228-26-jx645r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578504/original/file-20240228-26-jx645r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=947&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578504/original/file-20240228-26-jx645r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=947&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578504/original/file-20240228-26-jx645r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=947&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">John Stuart Mill (c.1870).</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:John_Stuart_Mill_by_London_Stereoscopic_Company,_c1870.jpg">Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
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<p>In the 20th century, the longstanding dynamic of liberalism, which defined the free individual in opposition to church and state, shifted in Europe and America, as political innovators introduced notions of liberalism to government. With the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/New-Deal">New Deal</a>, Franklin D. Roosevelt succeed in redefining the word liberal by associating it with new kinds of government intervention to address social problems. </p>
<p>Free speech became core business in US politics as the Soviet Union moved in the opposite direction. Then came <a href="https://millercenter.org/the-presidency/educational-resources/age-of-eisenhower/mcarthyism-red-scare">McCarthyism</a>, described by Blackford as “one of the most severe episodes of repression in the universities that the United States experienced in the 20th century”. </p>
<p>The underlying rationales of liberalism, forged through the long 19th century, were threatened with an impossible paradox. What if freedom cannot be preserved without coercive measures? It only takes a significant minority of a democratised population to believe that for the ideals to become untenable. </p>
<p>The paradox played out through the 1960s. Countercultural movements and the rise of feminism introduced more widespread determinations to keep individual freedom paramount. There was never a golden age of liberalism, says Blackford, although for a time we seemed to be on the way. </p>
<p>The radical visions of the 1960s faded into disappointment and disillusionment. Neoliberal policies introduced another ideological twist, with their stringently economic interpretations of individual freedom. A strong element of backlash was in evidence.</p>
<p>Curiously, How We Became Post-Liberal does not really engage with this side of the story. By the time Blackford gets to the mid-20th century, his already sweeping historical canvas has stretched beyond what is really manageable. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-how-neoliberalism-became-an-insult-in-australian-politics-188291">Explainer: how neoliberalism became an insult in Australian politics</a>
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<h2>A Rorschach test</h2>
<p>Cultural history at this level of generality is something of a Rorschach test. Points are selected from an infinite network of hubs and intersections. A selective design is composed, becoming ever more subject to distortion as it approaches the present. </p>
<p>Blackford’s focus is on the growth of rights movements and identity politics. He spends time examining the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satanic_Verses_controversy">controversy over Salman Rushdie’s novel The Satanic Verses</a> as an Escher-like puzzle, in which contemporary notions of free speech came into conflict with stringent cultural definitions of blasphemy. Claims about rights and their infringement drive in both directions. </p>
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<span class="caption">Salman Rushdie at the Frontiers of Thought festival, Sao Paulo, May 2014.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Salman_Rushdie_no_Fronteiras_do_Pensamento_S%C3%A3o_Paulo_2014_(14196012581).jpg">Greg Salibian/Fronteiras do Pensamento, via Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-a-new-identity-focused-ideology-has-trapped-the-left-and-undermined-social-justice-217085">How a new identity-focused ideology has trapped the left and undermined social justice</a>
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<p>And so the atmosphere around liberalism heats up. Melbourne psychologist Nicholas Haslam has identified a trend he calls “<a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2016-08154-001">concept creep</a>”: an expansion in the use of terms related to the experience of harm – abuse, bullying, trauma, prejudice, vulnerability, being triggered, feeling unsafe.</p>
<p>As Blackford reminds us, harm is a central concern in Mill’s work. It is the philosopher’s guiding principle for where free speech should or should not be sanctioned. </p>
<p>But what happens when a society becomes so obsessed with the anticipation of and redress of harm that the obsession itself becomes a form of tyranny? We are finding out, Blackford suggests, as social justice movements move into a zone where permits for anger and indignation are handed out so keenly they lead to new modes of zealotry and intolerance. </p>
<p>Here lies the central problem with the post-liberal movement, and with the way it is explained in this book. There is too much animus and it is directed selectively. Why focus on social justice movements as the heart of the problem, rather than the culture of extreme individualism generated by neoliberal orthodoxies? </p>
<p>If people on college campuses are becoming prone to zealotry in their campaigns against racism, bullying and harassment, and in their determination to gain recognition for diverse sexualities, what about those in the corporate world who garner obscene levels of personal wealth at the expense of people working for <a href="https://ilostat.ilo.org/topics/working-poverty/">below poverty wages</a>?</p>
<p>And where are campaigners like <a href="https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/paine/">Thomas Paine</a> (1737-1809) and <a href="https://williammorrissociety.org/about-william-morris/">William Morris</a> (1834-96) in this history of liberalism? </p>
<p>Paine gets a passing mention as “pamphleteer, free thinker and political radical”. But there is no discussion of his commitment to the principles of social security and a version of basic income as means of redressing extremes of economic inequality. </p>
<p>Morris, who parted company with Mill’s doctrines on free-market capitalism, may be seen as an early example of post-liberalism, but one that moves explicitly towards socialism. Religious persecution may have been a primary cause of intolerance and oppression in the early modern period, but industrial capitalism rapidly took over as the most pervasive form of tyranny in Europe and America.</p>
<p>Here the secular liberalism of US philosopher <a href="https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/rawls/">John Rawls</a> (1921-2002) warrants more than the couple of paragraphs that allude to his work. Rawls’s vision of an economy based on social justice and the greater good has been an influential counterpoint to the orthodoxy of neoliberalism. His ideas, surely, may also be seen as an earlier version of post-liberalism.</p>
<p>The contemporary post-liberal movement is showing a distinct bias towards targeting identity politics and social justice campaigns. Pabst is one of the few to offer an evenhanded critique on this score. At their worst, the proponents of post-liberalism are starting to sound like Russian propagandist <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/8/23/who-is-russian-ultranationalist-alexander-dugin">Alexander Dugin</a>, who caricatures Western individualism as infantile indulgence, slurring the word “leeberaleezm” as if it were an obscenity.</p>
<p>Isn’t the problem that we get caught in one vituperative backlash after another? Beware of those who seek to herald new forms of sanity. They may be harbingers of the next wave of tyranny.</p>
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<p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/friday-essay-george-orwell-is-everywhere-but-nineteen-eighty-four-is-not-a-reliable-guide-to-contemporary-politics-190909">Friday essay: George Orwell is everywhere, but Nineteen Eighty-Four is not a reliable guide to contemporary politics</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221303/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jane Goodall does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Russell Blackford’s How We Became Post-Liberal purports to offer a detached, historical account of why liberalism is in trouble.Jane Goodall, Emeritus Professor, Writing and Society Research Centre, Western Sydney UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2230352024-03-18T10:59:45Z2024-03-18T10:59:45Z2024 Senegal election crisis points to deeper issues with Macky Sall and his preferred successor<p>The botched attempt by Senegalese president <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Macky-Sall">Macky Sall</a> to <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/3/senegals-macky-sall-postpones-presidential-election">postpone</a> the presidential election has stirred unnecessary tension in an already strained electoral process. The move reflected deeper governance problems in the country.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/3/senegals-macky-sall-postpones-presidential-election">Sall’s decree</a>, subsequently <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/le-monde-africa/article/2024/02/16/constitutional-council-plunges-senegal-into-the-unknown-by-overturning-election-postponement_6531088_124.html">annulled by the Constitutional Council</a>, was the latest in a range of government interventions that exceeded the scope of the executive authority. These have included the <a href="https://www.africanews.com/2024/01/22/sonko-wade-not-listed-among-official-candidates-of-feb25-presidential-election/">disqualification</a> of key opposition candidates, the manipulation of judicial procedures, and the arbitrary detention of dissenting figures.</p>
<p>Sall’s 12-year tenure has been marked by contradictions. His administration boosted investment in transport and urban infrastructure. Notably, he worked on the <a href="https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/319731593403262722/text/Senegal-Transport-and-Urban-Mobility-Project.txt">motorway network</a>, the new Diass international airport, the development of major roads and the completion of public transport projects.</p>
<p>But these investments have not translated into improvements in the lives of Senegalese. Thousands of young people still go on <a href="https://www.jeuneafrique.com/1072143/politique/tribune-whatshappeninginsenegal-quand-le-drame-des-migrants-passe-au-second-plan/">perilous journeys</a> to Europe having lost hope of fulfilling their potential in their own country.</p>
<p>This is the backdrop to his move to postpone the elections in a last bid to secure a winning strategy for his camp. His anointed successor, <a href="https://www.ecofinagency.com/public-management/1109-44836-senegals-macky-sall-endorses-pm-amadou-ba-as-2024-successor">Amadou Ba</a>, remains a contested figure within the ruling <a href="https://www.senegel.org/en/movements/political-parties/poldetails/2">Alliance for the Republic Party</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Amy-Niang">I have a research interest</a> in state formation in west Africa. As I <a href="https://rowman.com/ISBN/9781786606525/The-Postcolonial-African-State-in-Transition-Stateness-and-Modes-of-Sovereignty">have argued</a> in my work, states sustain themselves by producing and alienating internal “others”. This refers to a scenario where governments assert sovereignty not against outside forces but against internal cultural groups and existing logics of governance. Sall’s style of government follows this pattern closely. </p>
<h2>Crisis within his party</h2>
<p>Sall <a href="https://fr.africanews.com/2024/02/10/senegal-macky-sall-se-justifie-sur-le-report-de-la-presidentielle//">said</a> he was postponing elections because of an alleged conflict between parliament and the Constitutional Council. The parliament had approved the creation of a commission of inquiry into the process of validation of presidential candidacies by the Constitutional Council.</p>
<p>Sall in fact latched onto <a href="https://www.bbc.com/afrique/articles/c1vywrx3xx9o">an accusation</a> of corruption levelled by Karim Wade against two Constitutional Council judges following Karim’s disqualification from running in the election due to his dual citizenship.</p>
<p>But the most plausible reason was a crisis within the ruling camp. The Alliance for the Republic is a divided party that is going to the elections in disarray. Sall’s chosen successor, <a href="https://guardian.ng/news/world/senegal-pm-amadou-ba-named-ruling-party-candidate-for-president/">Ba</a>, has generated little enthusiasm among voters. He symbolises the status quo. An affluent candidate, Ba has the difficult task of convincing an impoverished electorate that he is up to the task. </p>
<p>Sall overstepped his constitutional powers. The Senegalese <a href="https://adsdatabase.ohchr.org/IssueLibrary/SENEGAL_Constitution.pdf">constitution’s limitation</a> of the president’s term duration can’t be amended. Further, according to the <a href="https://dge.sn/sites/default/files/2019-01/CODE%20ELECTORAL%202018_0.pdf">electoral code</a>, the decree setting a date for presidential elections must be published no later than 80 days before the scheduled ballot. Sall postponed the poll just 12 hours before the campaigning was due to start, and <a href="https://www.africanews.com/2024/02/14/senegal-authorities-restrict-internet-access-and-ban-march//">22 days before the ballot</a>.</p>
<p>Sall’s attempt at postponing the elections, which has fostered a climate of distrust in the integrity of the electoral process, has left Senegal embroiled in a serious constitutional crisis. His decree brought forth two important issues:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>the government’s commitment to an orderly handover of power</p></li>
<li><p>the integrity of the democratic process.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>Erosion of a democratic tradition</h2>
<p>Since 2021, a series of protests and riots have pitted Ousmane Sonko, a key opposition figure facing rape allegations, and his supporters against a government accused of manipulating the judiciary to thwart a serious candidate. As a result, the economy has been severely disrupted. Each day of protests causes an estimated <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/restaurants-water-towers-unrest-dents-senegals-economy-2023-06-09/">$33 million loss</a> in economic output. </p>
<p>Further, Sall has used security and defence forces to establish an order of fear. He has resorted to heavy-handed measures against opposition figures and dissenting voices within civil society through arbitrary detention and prosecution. His government has systematically <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/06/05/senegal-violent-crackdown-opposition-dissent">restricted</a> the freedom of assembly, banned protests, suppressed independent media and mobilised public resources to bolster the ruling party.</p>
<p>For all these reasons, Senegal has seen an erosion of institutions meant to uphold the rule of law, foster political participation and ensure public accountability.</p>
<p>Sall was elected in <a href="https://fr.allafrica.com/view/group/main/main/id/00016260.html">2012</a> after a tumultuous period under the flamboyant government of <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Abdoulaye-Wade">President Abdoulaye Wade</a>. Sall owes his entire political career to Wade’s patronage. Yet their relationship soured when it became evident that Sall harboured ambitions to challenge Wade’s son, <a href="https://www.africa-confidential.com/profile/id/254/page/4">Karim</a>, who was being groomed to succeed his father. </p>
<p>Sall pledged to deliver virtuous and frugal governance. But public euphoria soon petered out as scandals involving cabinet ministers and <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2019/06/25/senegal-soupconne-de-corruption-le-frere-du-president-macky-sall-demissionne_5481292_3212.html">close family members</a> laid bare the corruption within the administration.</p>
<p>In 2023, amid much brouhaha over the validity of a third term, Sall <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-66093983">yielded</a> to public pressure after <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/senegalese-opposition-rally-against-president-sall-s-possible-third-term-ambition-/7091705.html">violent protests</a>. These resulted in the most serious political crisis since the 1960s, claiming over 60 lives and leading to the <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2024/01/22/senegal-pre-election-crackdown">arrest</a> of over 1,000 people.</p>
<h2>Where to for Senegal?</h2>
<p>In compliance with the <a href="https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/rest-of-africa/senegal-presidentsets-presidential-election-for-march-24-4547872">Constitutional Council ruling</a>, Sall has finally agreed to organise elections before his exit.</p>
<p>As the election day of 24 March draws near, the absence of key contenders, and uncertainties regarding the electoral procedures, inject an element of unpredictability. </p>
<p>Furthermore, the erosion of trust is such that the Senegalese public still doubts Sall’s commitment to fulfil his obligations and facilitate an orderly handover.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223035/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amy Niang does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Attempts to postpone Senegal’s election indefinitely reflect deeper governance problems within Macky Sall’s administration, and the shortcomings of his chosen heir, Amadou Ba.Amy Niang, Head of Research Programme, Council for the Development of Social Science Research in AfricaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2251262024-03-11T12:24:14Z2024-03-11T12:24:14ZI’m a political scientist, and the Alabama Supreme Court’s IVF ruling turned me into a reproductive-rights refugee<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580509/original/file-20240307-26-mc43ro.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1095%2C1199%2C1403%2C1892&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Spencer and Gabby Goidel hadn't planned to become activists.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Spencer and Gabby Goidel</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The day before the Alabama Supreme Court ruled that <a href="https://apnews.com/article/alabama-supreme-court-from-embryos-161390f0758b04a7638e2ddea20df7ca">frozen embryos created and used for in vitro fertilization</a> are children, my wife, Gabby, and I were greenlighted by our doctors to begin the IVF process. We live in Alabama.</p>
<p>That Friday evening, Feb. 16, 2024, unaware of the ruling, Gabby started taking her stimulation medications, worth roughly US$4,000 in total. We didn’t hear about the decision until Sunday morning, Feb. 18. By then, she had taken four injections – or two doses – of each of the stimulation medications.</p>
<p>For those who don’t know, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-ivf-a-nurse-explains-the-evolving-science-and-legality-of-in-vitro-fertilization-224476">IVF process is a winding journey</a> full of tests, bloodwork and bills. An IVF patient takes hormones for eight to 14 days to stimulate their ovaries to produce many mature eggs. The mature eggs are then retrieved via a minor surgical procedure and fertilized with sperm in a lab. The newly created embryos are monitored, sometimes biopsied and frozen for genetic testing, and then implanted, usually one at a time, in the uterus. From injection to implantation, one round of IVF takes four to eight weeks. </p>
<p>IVF can be as stressful as it is exciting. However, the potential of having a successful pregnancy and our own child at the end of the process, we hoped, would make it all worth it. The decision by the Alabama Supreme Court threw our dreams up in the air.</p>
<p>I <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=ow6DhIQAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">study politics</a> – I don’t practice it. I’m not involved in state or local government. I’m a scholar, not an activist or an advocate. But now one of the most intimate, personal events of our lives had been turned into a political event by the state’s highest court. As a result, I became something else, too, which I had not been before: an activist.</p>
<h2>Making sense of the ruling</h2>
<p>Throughout the process of creating, growing and testing embryos in a lab, as many as <a href="https://www.illumefertility.com/fertility-blog/ivf-attrition-rate">50% to 70%</a> of embryos <a href="https://theconversation.com/most-human-embryos-naturally-die-after-conception-restrictive-abortion-laws-fail-to-take-this-embryo-loss-into-account-187904">can be lost</a>. Similarly, in the preimplantation stage of natural pregnancies, <a href="https://doi.org/10.12688%2Ff1000research.22655.1">many embryos don’t survive</a>.</p>
<p>If embryos are children, as the court ruled, then fertility clinics and patients would be exposed to an immense amount of potential legal liability. Under this new framework, patients would be able to bring wrongful death suits against doctors for the normal failures of embryos in the testing or implantation phase. Doctors would either have to charge more for an already expensive procedure to cover massive legal-insurance costs or avoid IVF altogether.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580233/original/file-20240306-30-vi57hp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A screen shows a microscope's view of a needle and cells." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580233/original/file-20240306-30-vi57hp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580233/original/file-20240306-30-vi57hp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580233/original/file-20240306-30-vi57hp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580233/original/file-20240306-30-vi57hp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580233/original/file-20240306-30-vi57hp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580233/original/file-20240306-30-vi57hp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580233/original/file-20240306-30-vi57hp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Lab staff at an in vitro fertilization lab extract cells from embryos that are then checked for viability.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/FrozenEmbryos/ebbb52ebd68b4ab691798f90b3319f05/photo">AP Photo/Michael Wyke</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The decision and its implication – that IVF could not continue in the state of Alabama – felt like a personal affront to us. We were infuriated to have this uncertainty injected into the process three days into injecting IVF medication. </p>
<p>While the decision clearly imperiled the future of IVF in Alabama, it was not clear to us whether we would be allowed to continue the process we had begun. We were left completely in the dark for the next four days. Gabby and I had no choice but to continue daily life and IVF as though nothing was happening. </p>
<p>For me, that meant teaching my <a href="https://bulletin.auburn.edu/coursesofinstruction/poli/">political participation course at Auburn University</a>.</p>
<h2>Teaching politics when it gets personal</h2>
<p>I’ll never forget walking into class on Monday, Feb. 19, and telling the students about the court’s ruling and how it – maybe? – was going to jeopardize Gabby’s and my IVF process. </p>
<p>Before starting IVF, Gabby and I had gone through three miscarriages together.</p>
<p>IVF doesn’t always work. Approximately <a href="https://nccd.cdc.gov/drh_art/rdPage.aspx?rdReport=DRH_ART.ClinicInfo&rdRequestForward=True&ClinicId=9999&ShowNational=1">55% of IVF patients</a> under the age of 35 – Gabby is 26 – have a successful pregnancy after one egg retrieval. We couldn’t imagine the pain of telling friends and family that our attempt at having a child had once again failed. So we had agreed we were going to tell as few people as possible about starting IVF. </p>
<p>Yet, here I was now, telling my entire class what we were going through and how the Alabama Supreme Court ruling could affect us. </p>
<p>I wasn’t alone in sharing our story. The night before my Monday morning class, Gabby published an <a href="https://www.al.com/opinion/2024/02/guest-opinion-alabama-supreme-court-embryo-ruling-may-make-it-difficult-for-us-to-have-children.html">opinion column</a> on our local news site about the ruling and our resulting fears and anxieties, which really resonated with people.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578418/original/file-20240227-26-7ak5sq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Clear batches of containers of eggs and embryos in a large, frozen circular container" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578418/original/file-20240227-26-7ak5sq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578418/original/file-20240227-26-7ak5sq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578418/original/file-20240227-26-7ak5sq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578418/original/file-20240227-26-7ak5sq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578418/original/file-20240227-26-7ak5sq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578418/original/file-20240227-26-7ak5sq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578418/original/file-20240227-26-7ak5sq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cryopreservation gives prospective parents more time to pursue pregnancy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/frozen-embryos-and-eggs-in-nitrogen-cooled-royalty-free-image/520157312">Ted Horowitz Photography/The Image Bank via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>I was, that day and throughout the next few weeks, fixated on the conceptual gulf between the court’s ruling and public opinion. I wondered aloud, “Who’s against IVF? Surely, only 5% to 10% of the public agrees with this ruling.”</p>
<p>The actual numbers aren’t far off my in-class guess. <a href="https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_XLG2Z6p.pdf">Only 8% of Americans</a> say that IVF is immoral or should be illegal. But the story is more nuanced than that. Approximately <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2024-02/Axios%20Ipsos%20Alabama%20IVF%20Topline%20PDF%202.28.24.pdf">31% of Americans and 49% of Republicans</a> support “considering frozen embryos as people and holding those who destroy them legally responsible.” </p>
<p>In an attempt to tie our personal political experience into the class topic, I remarked that this court decision was a surefire way to get people involved in politics. I had no clue at the time how prophetic my comment would be.</p>
<h2>Fleeing to Texas for reproductive rights?</h2>
<p>On Wednesday, Feb. 21, the <a href="https://www.al.com/news/2024/02/uab-pauses-in-vitro-fertilization-due-to-fear-of-prosecution-officials-say.html">University of Alabama Birmingham’s fertility clinic</a> paused IVF treatments. That wasn’t our clinic, but the move sent us into a total panic. Our clinic’s closure seemed inevitable – and within 24 hours <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/university-alabama-pauses-ivf-services-court-rules-embryos-are-childre-rcna139846">it had paused IVF treatments as well</a>. </p>
<p>We didn’t know what we were going to do, but we knew we were likely leaving the state to continue IVF. I needed to tell my department chair what was going on.</p>
<p>I was walking out of my department chair’s office when my phone rang. Gabby told me, “We got in, we’re going to Temple.” I ran back into my department chair’s office, told her we were going to Temple, Texas, and then rushed home. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/22/us/alabama-embryos-ruling-ivf-treatment-leaving-state/index.html">A reporter from CNN</a> beat me there. It was one of <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2024/02/24/alabama-ivf-treatment-ruling-abortion/">several</a> <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/ivf-doctors-patients-fearful-alabama-court-rules-embryos-are-children-rcna139636">interviews</a> with <a href="https://apnews.com/video/alabama-assisted-reproductive-technology-courts-legislation-gabby-goidel-8990ee5efaab450b940da1e6a39bf8d1">major</a> <a href="https://www.msnbc.com/katy-tur/watch/-thoughtless-ivf-patients-speak-out-on-alabama-embryo-decision-204655173631">media</a> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/feb/22/alabama-fertility-pause-ivf-embryo-ruling">outlets</a> Gabby did in the wake of her opinion column. After the interview, we threw clothes in a suitcase, dropped our dogs off at the vet and drove to the Atlanta airport. We flew to Texas that night.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/9MCbgW7i2I0?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">One of the Goidels’ many media interviews in the wake of the Alabama ruling.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The thought of not completing the egg retrieval never seriously entered our minds. We were confident that we could get in with another IVF clinic somewhere, anywhere. But we’re affluent. We’re privileged. What if we weren’t so well off? We wouldn’t have wanted to give up, but we wouldn’t have been able to afford the fight.</p>
<p>We spent exactly one week at my parents’ house in Texas. Thankfully, my parents live an hour and a half away from the Temple clinic. We met our new doctor, <a href="https://www.bswhealth.com/physician/gordon-bates">Dr. Gordon Wright Bates</a>, and were immediately reassured. His cool expertise and confidence were calming to a stressed-out couple. The Alabama Supreme Court may have upended our lives, but we felt weirdly lucky to be in such a comfortable place.</p>
<p>The egg retrieval was Wednesday morning, Feb. 28. By all indications, it went well. IVF, however, is full of uncertainties. Now we are waiting on the results from preimplantation genetic testing. After that, there’s implantation and hoping the embryo continues to grow. We’re not in the clear: IVF is a stressful process even without a state court getting in the way. But today we are in a situation more like an average couple going through IVF than we have been in the past few weeks.</p>
<p>Late Wednesday night, March 6, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/06/us/politics/alabama-ivf-law.html">Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey signed into law a bill</a> providing legal protection to IVF clinics in the state. Gabby and I rejoiced at the news. Hopefully, we’re the last Alabamian couple to flee the state for IVF.</p>
<h2>A mobilizing moment</h2>
<p>When state politics directly interferes with your life, it feels like a gut punch, as if the community that you love is saying you’re not loved back. It’s easy to see how such an experience could either discourage or motivate you. Research shows that traumatic events, for the most part, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055422001010">depress voter turnout</a> in the following presidential election. By contrast, families and friends of 9/11 victims <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1315043110">became and remained more politically engaged</a> than their peers. </p>
<p>In this case, the Alabama Supreme Court ruling mobilized Gabby and <a href="https://www.democracynow.org/2024/3/4/alabama_ivf_patients_warning_to_others">other</a> <a href="https://www.today.com/health/news/alabama-ivf-ruling-embryo-transfer-canceled-rcna140029">women</a> going through the IVF process. For better or worse, the women, couples and families mobilized by this decision will likely always be more engaged because of it.</p>
<p>“Oh, God,” I remarked to my dad, “we’re going to be activists now, aren’t we?”</p>
<p>“So?” he asked.</p>
<p>“No one likes activists,” I responded in jest. But if we’re going to have and raise the family we want, this is just the first of many decisions we’re going to make that someone’s not going to like.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225126/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Spencer Goidel does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>I’m a scholar, not an activist or an advocate. But now one of the most intimate, personal events of our lives had been turned into a political event by the state’s highest court.Spencer Goidel, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Auburn UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2251582024-03-08T04:01:43Z2024-03-08T04:01:43ZBiden defends immigration policy during State of the Union, blaming Republicans in Congress for refusing to act<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580628/original/file-20240308-24-r50pvr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President Joe Biden delivers his State of the Union address on March 7, 2024. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-joe-biden-delivers-the-annual-state-of-the-union-news-photo/2059263399?adppopup=true">Alex Brandon-Pool/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>President Joe Biden delivered the annual <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/03/07/remarks-of-president-joe-biden-state-of-the-union-address-as-prepared-for-delivery-2/">State of the Union address</a> on March 7, 2024, casting a wide net on a range of major themes – the economy, abortion rights, threats to democracy, the wars in Gaza and Ukraine – that are preoccupying many Americans heading into the November presidential election.</em></p>
<p><em>The president also addressed massive increases in immigration at the southern border and the political battle in Congress over how to manage it. “We can fight about the border, or we can fix it. I’m ready to fix it,” Biden said.</em></p>
<p><em>But while Biden stressed that he wants to overcome political division and take action on immigration and the border, he cautioned that he will not “demonize immigrants,” as he said his predecessor, former President Donald Trump, does.</em> </p>
<p><em>“I will not separate families. I will not ban people from America because of their faith,” Biden said.</em></p>
<p><em>Biden’s speech comes as a <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4422273-immigration-overtakes-inflation-top-voter-concern-poll/">rising number of American voters</a> say that <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/611135/immigration-surges-top-important-problem-list.aspx">immigration is the country’s biggest problem</a>.</em></p>
<p><em><a href="https://gould.usc.edu/faculty/profile/jean-lantz-reisz/">Immigration law scholar Jean Lantz Reisz</a> answers four questions about why immigration has become a top issue for Americans, and the limits of presidential power when it comes to immigration and border security.</em> </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580622/original/file-20240308-21-t103cg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="President Joe Biden stands surrounded by people in formal clothing and smiles. One man holds a cell phone camera close up to his face." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580622/original/file-20240308-21-t103cg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580622/original/file-20240308-21-t103cg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580622/original/file-20240308-21-t103cg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580622/original/file-20240308-21-t103cg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580622/original/file-20240308-21-t103cg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580622/original/file-20240308-21-t103cg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580622/original/file-20240308-21-t103cg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Joe Biden arrives to deliver the State of the Union address at the US Capitol on March 7, 2024.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-joe-biden-arrives-to-deliver-the-state-of-the-news-photo/2067104727?adppopup=true">Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>1. What is driving all of the attention and concern immigration is receiving?</h2>
<p>The unprecedented number of undocumented migrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico border right now has drawn national concern to the U.S. immigration system and the president’s enforcement <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/12/22/1221006083/immigration-border-election-presidential">policies at the border</a>. </p>
<p>Border security has always been part of the immigration debate about how to stop unlawful immigration.</p>
<p>But in this election, the immigration debate is also fueled by images of large groups of migrants crossing a river and crawling through <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/record-number-migrant-border-crossings-december-2023/">barbed wire fences</a>. There is also news of standoffs between Texas law enforcement and U.S. <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2024/01/24/texas-border-wire-supreme-court/">Border Patrol agents</a> and cities like New York and Chicago struggling to handle the influx of arriving migrants. </p>
<p>Republicans blame Biden for not taking action on what they say is an <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-doubles-warnings-migrant-crime-border-speech/story?id=107691336">“invasion”</a> at the U.S. border. Democrats blame Republicans for refusing to pass laws that would give the president the power to stop the <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/biden-and-trump-s-dueling-border-visits-will-encapsulate-a-building-election-clash/ar-BB1j5jKy">flow of migration at the border</a>. </p>
<h2>2. Are Biden’s immigration policies effective?</h2>
<p>Confusion about immigration laws may be the reason people believe that Biden is not implementing effective policies at the border. </p>
<p>The U.S. passed a law in 1952 that gives any person arriving at the border or inside the U.S. the right to apply for asylum and the right to legally stay in the country, even if that person crossed the <a href="https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?req=granuleid:USC-prelim-title8-section1158&num=0&edition=prelim">border illegally</a>. That law has not changed. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/politics/trump-overruled/#immigration">Courts struck down</a> many of former President Donald Trump’s policies that tried to limit immigration. Trump was able to lawfully deport migrants at the border without processing their asylum claims during the COVID-19 pandemic under a public health law <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/what-is-title-42-and-what-does-it-mean-for-immigration-at-the-southern-border">called Title 42</a>. Biden continued that policy <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-is-title-42-policy-immigration-what-happens-ending-expiration/">until the legal justification for Title 42</a> – meaning the public health emergency – ended in 2023. </p>
<p>Republicans falsely attribute the <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/02/15/migrant-encounters-at-the-us-mexico-border-hit-a-record-high-at-the-end-of-2023/">surge in undocumented migration</a> to the U.S. over the past three years to something they call Biden’s <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4414432-house-approves-resolution-denouncing-bidens-open-border-policies/">“open border” policy</a>. There is no such policy. </p>
<p>Multiple factors are driving increased migration to the U.S. </p>
<p>More people are leaving dangerous or difficult situations in <a href="https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2024/02/the-crisis-at-the-border-a-primer-for-confused-americans.html">their countries</a>, and some people have waited to migrate until <a href="https://www.migrationpolicy.org/news/border-numbers-fy2023">after the COVID-19 pandemic</a> ended. People who smuggle migrants are also <a href="https://thehill.com/campaign-issues/immigration/3576180-human-smugglers-often-target-migrants-with-misinformation-on-social-media-watchdog/">spreading misinformation</a> to migrants about the ability to enter and stay in the U.S. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580236/original/file-20240306-24-y12r2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Joe Biden wears a black blazer and a black hat as he stands next to a bald white man wearing a green uniform and a white truck that says 'Border Patrol' in green" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580236/original/file-20240306-24-y12r2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580236/original/file-20240306-24-y12r2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580236/original/file-20240306-24-y12r2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580236/original/file-20240306-24-y12r2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580236/original/file-20240306-24-y12r2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580236/original/file-20240306-24-y12r2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580236/original/file-20240306-24-y12r2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Joe Biden walks with Jason Owens, the chief of the U.S. Border Patrol, as he visits the U.S.-Mexico border in Brownsville, Texas, on Feb. 29, 2024.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-joe-biden-walks-with-jason-owens-chief-of-us-news-photo/2041441026?adppopup=true">Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>3. How much power does the president have over immigration?</h2>
<p>The president’s power regarding immigration is limited to enforcing existing immigration laws. But the president has broad authority over how to enforce those laws. </p>
<p>For example, the president can place every single immigrant unlawfully <a href="https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?req=granuleid:USC-prelim-title8-section1103&num=0&edition=prelim">present in the U.S.</a> in deportation proceedings. Because there is not enough money or employees at federal agencies and courts to accomplish that, the president will usually choose to prioritize the deportation of certain immigrants, like those who have committed serious and violent crimes in the U.S. </p>
<p>The federal agency Immigration and Customs Enforcement <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/2023/12/29/immigrants-ice-border-deportations-2023/#">deported more than 142,000 immigrants</a> from October 2022 through September 2023, double the number of people it deported the previous fiscal year. </p>
<p>But under current law, the president does not have the power to summarily expel migrants who say they are afraid of returning to their country. The law requires the president to process their claims for asylum. </p>
<p>Biden’s ability to enforce immigration law also depends on a budget approved by Congress. <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/02/29/fact-sheet-impact-of-bipartisan-border-agreement-funding-on-border-operations/">Without congressional approval</a>, the president cannot spend money to build a wall, increase immigration detention facilities’ capacity or send more Border Patrol agents to process undocumented migrants entering the country.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580242/original/file-20240306-18-k0ch8n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A large group of people are seen sitting and standing along a tall brown fence in an empty area of brown dirt." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580242/original/file-20240306-18-k0ch8n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580242/original/file-20240306-18-k0ch8n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580242/original/file-20240306-18-k0ch8n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580242/original/file-20240306-18-k0ch8n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580242/original/file-20240306-18-k0ch8n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580242/original/file-20240306-18-k0ch8n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580242/original/file-20240306-18-k0ch8n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Migrants arrive at the border between El Paso, Texas, and Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, to surrender to American Border Patrol agents on March 5, 2024.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/groups-of-migrants-of-different-nationalities-arrive-at-the-news-photo/2054049040?adppopup=true">Lokman Vural Elibol/Anadolu via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>4. How could Biden address the current immigration problems in this country?</h2>
<p>In early 2024, Republicans in the Senate refused to pass a bill – developed by a bipartisan team of legislators – that would have made it harder to get asylum and given Biden the power to stop <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/immigration-biden-border-authority/">taking asylum applications</a> when migrant crossings reached a <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/senate-vote-border-bill-aid-02-07-24/h_3263c78238d0d2de96a203fad7fd9e94">certain number</a>. </p>
<p>During his speech, Biden called this bill the “toughest set of border security reforms we’ve ever seen in this country.”</p>
<p>That bill would have also provided <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/senate-vote-border-bill-aid-02-07-24/h_3263c78238d0d2de96a203fad7fd9e94">more federal money</a> to help immigration agencies and courts quickly review more asylum claims and expedite the asylum process, which remains backlogged with millions of cases, Biden said. Biden said the bipartisan deal would also hire 1,500 more border security agents and officers, as well as 4,300 more asylum officers. </p>
<p>Removing this backlog in immigration courts could mean that some undocumented migrants, who now might wait six to eight years for an asylum hearing, would instead only wait six weeks, Biden said. That means it would be “highly unlikely” migrants would pay a large amount to be smuggled into the country, only to be “kicked out quickly,” Biden said. </p>
<p>“My Republican friends, you owe it to the American people to get this bill done. We need to act,” Biden said. </p>
<p>Biden’s remarks calling for Congress to pass the bill drew jeers from some in the audience. Biden quickly responded, saying that it was a bipartisan effort: “What are you against?” he asked. </p>
<p>Biden <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-weighs-invoking-executive-authority-stage-border-crackdown-212f/">is now considering</a> using section 212(f) of the <a href="https://www.uscis.gov/laws-and-policy/legislation/immigration-and-nationality-act">Immigration and Nationality Act</a> to get more control over immigration. This sweeping law allows the president to temporarily suspend or restrict the entry of all foreigners if their arrival is detrimental to the U.S.</p>
<p>This obscure law gained attention when Trump used it in January 2017 to implement a <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trump-s-immigration-ban-raises-more-questions-answers-here-s-n1188946">travel ban</a> on foreigners from mainly Muslim countries. The Supreme Court upheld the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/01/world/americas/travel-ban-trump-how-it-works.html">travel ban in 2018</a>. </p>
<p>Trump again also signed an executive order in April 2020 that <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trump-s-immigration-ban-raises-more-questions-answers-here-s-n1188946">blocked foreigners who were seeking lawful permanent residency from entering the country</a> for 60 days, citing this same section of the Immigration and Nationality Act. </p>
<p>Biden did not mention any possible use of section 212(f) during his State of the Union speech. If the president uses this, it would likely be challenged in court. It is not clear that 212(f) would apply to people already in the U.S., and it conflicts with existing asylum law that gives people within the U.S. the right to seek asylum.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225158/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jean Lantz Reisz does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A rising number of Americans say that immigration is the country’s biggest problem. Biden called for Congress to pass a bipartisan border and immigration bill during his State of the Union.Jean Lantz Reisz, Clinical Associate Professor of Law, Co-Director, USC Immigration Clinic, University of Southern CaliforniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2213582024-03-06T17:14:56Z2024-03-06T17:14:56ZHow the 1984 miners’ strike paved the way for devolution in Wales<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577265/original/file-20240222-24-1zfxh1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2000%2C1310&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Miners from different collieries gather in Port Talbot in April 1984.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/alandenney/2457055287">Alan Denney/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>March 2024 marks the 40th anniversary of the start of the <a href="https://www.history.ox.ac.uk/miners-strike-1984-5-oral-history">miners’ strike</a>. In Wales, particularly within the south Wales coalfield, it was more than an industrial dispute. This was a major political event that reflected deeper cultural and economic changes. </p>
<p>These changes, alongside discontent at the emphasis of the then-UK prime minister <a href="https://academic.oup.com/cje/article/44/2/319/5550923">Margaret Thatcher’s Conservative government</a> on free market economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk-strikes-how-margaret-thatcher-and-other-leaders-cut-trade-union-powers-over-centuries-186270">stifling trade unions</a> and reducing the size of the state shifted how many Labour heartlands viewed the idea of self-government for Wales. This was due to Thatcher’s actions hitting at the heart of many working-class Labour voters’ existence, leading to threats to livelihoods and communities. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/what-thatcher-did-for-wales/">Many started feeling</a> that some of the devastation wreaked by Thatcherism could have been avoided had there been a devolved Welsh government. That government would, in all likelihood, have been Labour controlled, acting as a “protective shield”.</p>
<p>Instead, by the time of the May 1979 general election (five years before the miners’ strike), Wales was a nation divided. Only weeks earlier, it had overwhelmingly <a href="https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/RP97-113/RP97-113.pdf">rejected</a> the Labour government’s proposal to create a Welsh Assembly, which would have given Wales a certain degree of autonomy from Westminster.</p>
<p>Many Labour MPs, such as Welshman Neil Kinnock, had vehemently opposed devolution and favoured a united British state. However, it was now this state, through a National Coal Board overseen by a Westminster Conservative government, that was aiming to further close Welsh coal mines. </p>
<p>The National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) was both a political and workplace representative for miners and their communities. For a politician like Kinnock, balancing party and local interests was difficult. </p>
<p>Thatcher’s Conservative party won a large majority at the <a href="https://www.parliament.uk/globalassets/documents/commons-information-office/m09.pdf">1983 election</a> and the Ebbw Vale MP, Michael Foot, had been Labour leader during its defeat. His left-wing manifesto had been <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/8550425.stm">dubbed</a> the “longest suicide note in history” by Gerald Kaufman, himself a Labour MP. It led to Foot’s resignation and the election of Kinnock as the leader of the opposition. </p>
<p>As a miners’ strike looked more likely, the national context made Labour party support for the strike problematic. Despite his political and personal ties to the NUM, Kinnock <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/509387">disagreed</a> with its leaders, such as Arthur Scargill, and their strategies for the strike. However, the Labour leader supported the right of the miners to defend their livelihood. </p>
<p>In a period of difficult deindustrialisation across nationalised industries, Labour was caught between unstoppable economic restructuring and job losses that affected its traditional voters.</p>
<h2>Thatcherism and Wales</h2>
<p>Gwyn A. Williams, a Marxist historian, <a href="https://www.google.co.uk/books/edition/When_was_Wales/QUJ0QgAACAAJ?hl=en">described</a> Welsh people as “a naked people under an acid rain”. This acidity had two main ingredients: Thatcherism and the “no” vote for a Welsh Assembly in 1979. </p>
<p>According to this analysis, the absence of devolution in Wales had left it exposed to the vagaries of Conservative governance in Westminster. The dangers of this were illuminated during the miners’ strike and in high unemployment rates of <a href="https://www.gov.wales/digest-welsh-historical-statistics-0">nearly 14% in Wales</a> by the mid-1980s. </p>
<p>However, it would be a fallacy to argue that Wales was a no-go zone for the Conservatives, even after the strike. In the <a href="https://www.parliament.uk/globalassets/documents/commons-information-office/m11.pdf">1987 general election</a>, although their number of MPs dropped from the 1983 high of 14 to eight, they were still attracting 29.5% of the Welsh vote. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="Black and white photo of Margaret Thatcher with her hands raised in front of a union flag." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577951/original/file-20240226-24-onf851.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577951/original/file-20240226-24-onf851.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=843&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577951/original/file-20240226-24-onf851.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=843&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577951/original/file-20240226-24-onf851.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=843&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577951/original/file-20240226-24-onf851.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1059&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577951/original/file-20240226-24-onf851.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1059&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577951/original/file-20240226-24-onf851.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1059&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Was Margaret Thatcher one of the unwitting architects of Welsh devolution?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/levanrami/43795237465">Levan Ramishvili/Flickr</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It would take several more years of Conservative policies such as the poll tax, the tenure of John Redwood as secretary of state for Wales (1993-95) and the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/13689889808413006">scandal-riven sagas</a> of the party during the 1990s for them to gain zero seats in Wales in 1997. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, the strike, and the febrile atmosphere of the period, had carved out a Welsh distinctiveness to anti-Conservative rhetoric. Several organisations and conferences during the 1980s laid the groundwork that shaped new questions about Welsh nationhood. They contributed to the swing towards a narrow “yes” vote in the 1997 Welsh devolution <a href="https://law.gov.wales/constitution-and-government/constitution-and-devolution/executive-devolution-1998-2007">referendum</a> offered by Tony Blair’s Labour government, which came to power in 1997.</p>
<p>In February 1985, Hywel Francis, a historian and later Labour MP for Aberafan, published an article in the magazine, <a href="https://banmarchive.org.uk/marxism-today/february-1985/mining-the-popular-front/">Marxism Today</a>, suggesting that the miners’ strike was not merely an industrial dispute but an anti-Thatcher resistance movement. </p>
<p>Central to his argument was the formation of the <a href="https://archives.library.wales/index.php/wales-congress-in-support-of-mining-communities">Wales Congress in Support of Mining Communities</a> the previous autumn, which formalised some of the “unexpected alliances” heralded by the strike. The Congress coordinated the demonstrations and activism of some of the diverse groups that both supported the miners and simultaneously resisted many of the policies of the Thatcher government. These included trade unionists, religious leaders, the women’s peace movement, gay rights campaigners, as well as Labour members and Welsh nationalist activists. According to Francis, the latter two realised that “unless they joined, the world would pass them by”.</p>
<p>The congress aimed to stimulate a coordinated debate about Welsh mining communities, moving the narrative away from picket-line conflict and towards a democratic vision of Wales’s future. </p>
<p>While the strike ended only a month after Francis’s article, and the organisation itself dissolved in 1986, the congress had bridged many chasms in Welsh society. It showed old enemies in Labour and Plaid Cymru that solidarity could reap more benefits than the overt tribalism that had blighted the devolution campaign of the 1970s. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A large modern building with a large roof that juts out." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578555/original/file-20240228-24-bi5coh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578555/original/file-20240228-24-bi5coh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578555/original/file-20240228-24-bi5coh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578555/original/file-20240228-24-bi5coh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578555/original/file-20240228-24-bi5coh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578555/original/file-20240228-24-bi5coh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578555/original/file-20240228-24-bi5coh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Senedd in Cardiff.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/cardiff-wales-united-kingdom-06-17-2335002765">meunierd/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Legacy</h2>
<p>In 1988, the campaign for a Welsh Assembly was <a href="https://academic.oup.com/manchester-scholarship-online/book/29790/chapter-abstract/251892249?redirectedFrom=fulltext">established</a> in Cardiff by Siân Caiach of Plaid Cymru and Jon Owen Jones of Labour. It was a direct descendant of this collaborative ethos, feeding an altogether more mature debate around Welsh devolution than had been seen in the 1970s. </p>
<p>For example, Ron Davies, an arch-devolutionist in 1990s Labour, <a href="https://www.iwa.wales/wp-content/media/2016/03/acceleratinghistory.pdf">had voted “no”</a> in 1979. This was predominantly because he saw devolution as a Trojan horse for Plaid. </p>
<p>However, seeing the consequences of the miners’ strike and Thatcherism on his constituency of Caerffili drove him towards a drastic re-evaluation of devolution as being a protective buffer for the people of Wales. He became leader of Welsh Labour in 1998, eventually joining Plaid in 2010.</p>
<p>Historian Martin Johnes <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-16315966">has described</a> Thatcher as an “unlikely architect of Welsh devolution”. Indeed, her inadvertent <a href="https://www.iwa.wales/agenda/2013/04/we-voted-labour-but-got-thatcher/">help</a> in orchestrating the Welsh Assembly rested in the forging of Labour and Plaid Cymru cooperation, with the miners’ strike as a watershed movement. </p>
<p>The strike remains a vivid memory in many Welsh communities. It stands as a reminder to 21st-century politicians that today’s Senedd (Welsh parliament) was built on cross-party cooperation.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221358/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The strike saw different political factions uniting, which eventually led to a more collaborative form of politics in Wales.Mari Wiliam, Lecturer in Modern and Welsh History, Bangor UniversityMarc Collinson, Lecturer in Political History, Bangor UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2244382024-03-04T13:41:42Z2024-03-04T13:41:42ZDemand for computer chips fuelled by AI could reshape global politics and security<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578585/original/file-20240228-18-rudxyy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=28%2C0%2C6361%2C3592&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/close-silicon-die-being-extracted-semiconductor-2262331365">IM Imagery / Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A global race to build powerful computer chips that are essential for the next generation of artificial intelligence (AI) tools could have a major impact on global politics and security. </p>
<p>The US is currently leading the race in the design of these chips, also known as semiconductors. But most of the manufacturing is carried out in Taiwan. The debate has been fuelled by the call by Sam Altman, CEO of ChatGPT’s developer OpenAI, for <a href="https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/sam-altman-seeks-trillions-of-dollars-to-reshape-business-of-chips-and-ai-89ab3db0">a US$5 trillion to US$7 trillion</a> (£3.9 trillion to £5.5 trillion) global investment to <a href="https://venturebeat.com/ai/sam-altman-wants-up-to-7-trillion-for-ai-chips-the-natural-resources-required-would-be-mind-boggling/">produce more powerful chips</a> for the next generation of AI platforms. </p>
<p>The amount of money Altman called for is more than the chip industry has spent in total since it began. Whatever the facts about those numbers, overall projections for the AI market are mind blowing. The data analytics company GlobalData <a href="https://www.globaldata.com/media/technology/generative-ai-will-go-mainstream-2024-driven-adoption-specialized-custom-models-multimodal-tool-experimentation-says-globaldata/">forecasts that the market will be worth US$909 billion</a> by 2030.</p>
<p>Unsurprisingly, over the past two years, the US, China, Japan and several European countries have increased their budget allocations and put in place measures to secure or maintain a share of the chip industry for themselves. China is catching up fast and is <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2023/09/china-boosts-semiconductor-subsidies-as-us-tightens-restrictions/">subsidising chips, including next-generation ones for AI</a>, by hundreds of billions over the next decade to build a manufacturing supply chain. </p>
<p>Subsidies seem to be the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/germany-earmarks-20-bln-eur-chip-industry-coming-years-2023-07-25/">preferred strategy for Germany too</a>. The UK government has announced its <a href="https://www.ukri.org/news/100m-boost-in-ai-research-will-propel-transformative-innovations/#:%7E:text=%C2%A3100m%20boost%20in%20AI%20research%20will%20propel%20transformative%20innovations,-6%20February%202024&text=Nine%20new%20research%20hubs%20located,help%20to%20define%20responsible%20AI.">plans to invest £100 million</a> to support regulators and universities in addressing challenges around artificial intelligence. </p>
<p>The economic historian Chris Miller, the author of the book Chip War, <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/ai-chip-race-fears-grow-of-huge-financial-bubble/a-68272265">has talked about how powerful chips have become a “strategic commodity”</a> on the global geopolitical stage.</p>
<p>Despite the efforts by several countries to invest in the future of chips, there is currently a shortage of the types currently needed for AI systems. Miller recently explained that 90% of the chips used to train, or improve, AI systems are <a href="https://www.siliconrepublic.com/future-human/chip-war-semiconductors-supply-tech-geopolitics-chris-miller">produced by just one company</a>.</p>
<p>That company is the <a href="https://www.tsmc.com/english">Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC)</a>. Taiwan’s dominance in the chip manufacturing industry is notable because the island is also the focus for tensions between China and the US. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-microchip-industry-would-implode-if-china-invaded-taiwan-and-it-would-affect-everyone-206335">The microchip industry would implode if China invaded Taiwan, and it would affect everyone</a>
</strong>
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<p>Taiwan has, for the most part, <a href="https://www.taiwan.gov.tw/content_3.php#:%7E:text=The%20ROC%20government%20relocated%20to,rule%20of%20a%20different%20government.">been independent since the middle of the 20th century</a>. However, Beijing believes it should be <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-calls-taiwan-president-frontrunner-destroyer-peace-2023-12-31/">reunited with the rest of China</a> and US legislation requires Washington to <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/96th-congress/house-bill/2479#:%7E:text=Declares%20that%20in%20furtherance%20of,defense%20capacity%20as%20determined%20by">help defend Taiwan if it is invaded</a>. What would happen to the chip industry under such a scenario is unclear, but it is obviously a focus for global concern.</p>
<p>The disruption of supply chains in chip manufacturing have the potential to bring entire industries to a halt. Access to the raw materials, such as rare earth metals, used in computer chips has also proven to be an important bottleneck. For example, China <a href="https://securityconference.org/en/publications/munich-security-report-2024/technology/">controls 60% of the production of gallium metal</a> and 80% of the global production of germanium. These are both critical raw products used in chip manufacturing.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Sam Altman" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578592/original/file-20240228-30-178em0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578592/original/file-20240228-30-178em0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578592/original/file-20240228-30-178em0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578592/original/file-20240228-30-178em0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578592/original/file-20240228-30-178em0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578592/original/file-20240228-30-178em0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578592/original/file-20240228-30-178em0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has called for a US$5 trillion to $7 trillion investment in chips to support the growth in AI.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/openai-ceo-sam-altman-attends-artificial-2412159621">Photosince / Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>And there are other, lesser known bottlenecks. A process called <a href="https://research.ibm.com/blog/what-is-euv-lithography">extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography</a> is vital for the ability to continue making computer chips smaller and smaller – and therefore more powerful. <a href="https://www.asml.com/en">A single company in the Netherlands, ASML</a>, is the only manufacturer of EUV systems for chip production.</p>
<p>However, chip factories are increasingly being built outside Asia again – something that has the potential to reduce over-reliance on a few supply chains. Plants in the US are being subsidised to the tune of <a href="https://securityconference.org/en/publications/munich-security-report-2024/technology/">US$43 billion and in Europe, US$53 billion</a>. </p>
<p>For example, the Taiwanese semiconductor manufacturer TSMC is planning to build a multibillion dollar facility in Arizona. When it opens, that factory <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-microchip-industry-would-implode-if-china-invaded-taiwan-and-it-would-affect-everyone-206335">will not be producing the most advanced chips</a> that it’s possible to currently make, many of which are still produced by Taiwan.</p>
<p>Moving chip production outside Taiwan could reduce the risk to global supplies in the event that manufacturing were somehow disrupted. But this process could take years to have a meaningful impact. It’s perhaps not surprising that, for the first time, this year’s Munich Security Conference <a href="https://securityconference.org/en/publications/munich-security-report-2024/technology/">created a chapter devoted to technology</a> as a global security issue, with discussion of the role of computer chips. </p>
<h2>Wider issues</h2>
<p>Of course, the demand for chips to fuel AI’s growth is not the only way that artificial intelligence will make major impact on geopolitics and global security. The growth of disinformation and misinformation online has transformed politics in recent years by inflating prejudices on both sides of debates. </p>
<p>We have seen it <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/26675075">during the Brexit campaign</a>, during <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/20563051231177943">US presidential elections</a> and, more recently, during the <a href="https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-gaza-misinformation-fact-check-e58f9ab8696309305c3ea2bfb269258e">conflict in Gaza</a>. AI could be the ultimate amplifier of disinformation. Take, for example, deepfakes – AI-manipulated videos, audio or images of public figures. These could easily fool people into thinking a major <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/feb/26/ai-deepfakes-disinformation-election">political candidate had said something they didn’t</a>.</p>
<p>As a sign of this technology’s growing importance, at the 2024 Munich Security Conference, 20 of the world’s largest tech companies <a href="https://news.microsoft.com/2024/02/16/technology-industry-to-combat-deceptive-use-of-ai-in-2024-elections/">launched something called the “Tech Accord”</a>. In it, they pledged to cooperate to create tools to spot, label and debunk deepfakes. </p>
<p>But should such important issues be left to tech companies to police? Mechanisms such as the EU’s Digital Service Act, the UK’s Online Safety Bill as well as frameworks to regulate AI itself should help. But it remains to be seen what impact they can have on the issue.</p>
<p>The issues raised by the chip industry and the growing demand driven by AI’s growth are just one way that AI is driving change on the global stage. But it remains a vitally important one. National leaders and authorities must not underestimate the influence of AI. Its potential to redefine geopolitics and global security could exceed our ability to both predict and plan for the changes.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224438/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alina Vaduva is affiliated with the Labour Party, as a member and elected councillor in Dartford, Kent. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kirk Chang does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The effects of AI’s growth on global security could be difficult to predict.Kirk Chang, Professor of Management and Technology, University of East LondonAlina Vaduva, Director of the Business Advice Centre for Post Graduate Students at UEL, Ambassador of the Centre for Innovation, Management and Enterprise, University of East LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2243432024-03-04T11:47:59Z2024-03-04T11:47:59ZKenyans use humour to counter unpopular state policies – memes are the latest tool<p>Seemingly disillusioned with the country’s leadership, Kenyans have taken to new ways of expressing their anger and frustration with their government. </p>
<p>On social media and in everyday conversations, President William Ruto is now referred to as Zakayo, named after the infamous <a href="https://www.bible.com/bible/111/LUK.19.1-10.NIV">Zaccheaus</a>, the much-hated chief tax collector in biblical Jericho. </p>
<p>Ruto is also called Kaunda Uongoman, which mimics the stage name of a controversial Congolese musician, <a href="https://www.monitor.co.ug/uganda/magazines/people-power/wahito-kanda-bongo-man-and-the-story-of-his-kenyan-beauty-1789094">Kanda Bongoman</a>. The first name is a reference to Ruto’s <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-67563308">recent penchant</a> for Kaunda suits. The surname is a portmanteau of the Kiswahili word <em>uongo</em>, meaning liar, and man. </p>
<p>These nicknames are examples of the many humorous but pointed and pithy descriptions now widely used by Kenyans, particularly on social media platforms, to <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/329099584_Whatwouldmagufulido_Kenya's_digital_practices_and_individuation_as_a_nonpolitical_act">ridicule and express defiance</a> towards a president and government whose policy decisions have become <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-67694865">deeply unpopular</a>. </p>
<p>Satire and humour have always been legitimate sites for popular engagement with the state in Kenya. But a new weapon in the armoury of those criticising the state is the use of memes. Across social media, Kenyans are employing a range of memes drawn from folk, biblical, global and everyday expressions, as well as videos, screen grabs and photographs riffed off circulating news stories to comment on the government’s failings. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/from-advertising-blackmail-to-physical-threats-kenyas-journalists-are-under-attack-but-they-must-also-regain-public-trust-203580">From advertising blackmail to physical threats, Kenya's journalists are under attack – but they must also regain public trust</a>
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<p>Memes have become an <a href="https://berghahnbooks.com/downloads/OpenAccess/BernalCryptopolitics/BernalCryptopolitics_03.pdf">important feature</a> of Kenya’s everyday and discursive political practices. <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1470412914551351">Memes</a> are defined by media scholars Laine Nooney and Laura Portwood-Stacer as</p>
<blockquote>
<p>digital objects that riff on a given visual, textual or auditory form and are then appropriated, re-coded, and slotted back into the infrastructures they came from. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>I have <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=CmVgKXsAAAAJ&view_op=list_works&sortby=pubdate">researched</a> these popular cultural forms particularly within the context of digital media in Africa. I have demonstrated, for example, how <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/23743670.2015.1119490?casa_token=Sue0yxvwcvUAAAAA:dTsuDNJM9KDsFfjWqA7JvO1jupx_WdVmiLg7eKpMGu_7cbbqo-LoBohB6USKYQhGZHtpGfRp2ByF">Twitter</a> has incubated various cultures of popular expression. These create important “<a href="https://www.berghahnbooks.com/downloads/OpenAccess/BernalCryptopolitics/BernalCryptopolitics_03.pdf#page=9">pockets of indiscipline</a>” through which state power is constantly challenged. </p>
<p>Media repression in Kenya has taken new forms. The focus is largely on <a href="https://theconversation.com/from-advertising-blackmail-to-physical-threats-kenyas-journalists-are-under-attack-but-they-must-also-regain-public-trust-203580">invisible tactics</a> that don’t make the state look bad. These range from the use of advertising blackmail to legal instruments often vaguely defined to facilitate misuse. There’s also the creation of a pliant “independent” media council which is <a href="https://mediacouncil.or.ke/index.php/about-us/origins-of-the-council">partly funded by the government</a>. </p>
<p>Memes aren’t completely insulating users from potential state harassment and legal transgressions. Nevertheless, they are making it possible for Kenyans to expand their spaces and boundaries of popular expression, and to navigate some of the existing legal barriers to free expression.</p>
<h2>Resistance legacy in Kenya</h2>
<p>Satire and humour have historically been important forms of political practice in Kenya. The tradition has existed in different forms across various platforms, including broadcast and print media, as well as in popular cultural forms such as music and drama. </p>
<p>For example, in the 1980s and 1990s a satirical newspaper fiction column, <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13504630500161581">Wahome Mutahi’s column Whispers</a>, became a must-read. Through satirical and humorous accounts of a fictionalised Kenyan family, Mutahi was able to openly criticise the government, commenting on state policies and failings in a way that mainstream press couldn’t. </p>
<p>This was at the height of the terrifying reign of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/daniel-arap-moi-the-making-of-a-kenyan-big-man-127177">late Kenyan president Daniel arap Moi</a>, when criticism of the government was dangerous. Journalists were routinely jailed, exiled or even killed for it. </p>
<p>Kenyans are again tapping into this history using new media technologies to creatively challenge power. </p>
<p>The political context in the country is different from that of the 1980s. Nevertheless, the government continues to exert influence on mainstream media. Its main means of doing so is through <a href="https://theconversation.com/from-advertising-blackmail-to-physical-threats-kenyas-journalists-are-under-attack-but-they-must-also-regain-public-trust-203580">the control of advertising revenue</a>. The state is the largest single advertiser in the country’s media, and organisations regarded as hostile are denied government advertising. </p>
<p>As a result, social media platforms have become alternative critical debating spaces. This is despite efforts by the state to <a href="https://www.article19.org/resources/kenya-withdraw-proposed-amendments-to-cybercrimes-law/">undermine free speech</a> in various communication platforms. </p>
<p>As rights group <a href="https://www.article19.org/resources/kenya-harmonise-free-expression-with-iccpr-recommendations/">Article 19</a> has argued, content-based restrictions on free expression that are incompatible with international human rights law and standards remain in Kenya’s penal code. Another problematic law is the <a href="http://kenyalaw.org/kl/fileadmin/pdfdownloads/Acts/ComputerMisuseandCybercrimesActNo5of2018.pdf">Computer Misuse and Cybercrimes Act</a>, which the government has routinely used to punish those on social media exposing instances of state corruption. <a href="https://mediainnovationnetwork.org/2022/04/07/the-legal-challenges-facing-east-africas-bloggers-and-influencers/">Bloggers and political activists</a> have been subjected to some of these laws.</p>
<h2>Game of cat and mouse</h2>
<p>In an environment where the government seems determined to control public communication spaces, and has the means to do so, alternative cultures of defiance that have been known to elude state capture should thrive.</p>
<p>Yet, even as the use of memes, especially for political accountability, proliferates, there is always the fear that the state can simply ignore their spread and “vitality”, or appropriate them. This would weaken their subversive intent. For example, during a recent foreign trip to Japan, <a href="https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/realtime/2024-02-08-ruto-i-dont-mind-being-called-zakayo-but/">Ruto “accepted”</a> his nickname Zakayo, insisting that he wouldn’t backtrack on his unpopular tax policies. </p>
<p>When the state takes “ownership” of this language of resistance, it presents an interesting paradox, one which the Cameroonian scholar Achille Mbembe once likened to a form of “<a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/africa/article/abs/provisional-notes-on-the-postcolony/BE5FFE3AC0DB10125B69E0D63E36DD89">mutual zombification</a>”. This is where the ruler and the ruled “rob each other of their vitality, leaving both impotent”. </p>
<p>In other words, none is left the stronger.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224343/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>George Ogola does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Satire and humour have always been sites for popular engagement with the state in Kenya.George Ogola, Professor of Media Industries, University of NottinghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2211162024-02-28T19:14:56Z2024-02-28T19:14:56Z‘If we burn … then what?’ A new book asks why a decade of mass protest has done so little to change things<p>In 2010, in response to ongoing ill-treatment by police, a fruit vendor performed an act of self-immolation in Sidi Bouzid, Tunisia. This set off an uprising that led to the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2021/1/14/remembering-the-day-tunisias-president-ben-ali-fled">removal of dictator Ben Ali</a> and a process to rewrite the constitution in a democratic direction. </p>
<p>Inspired by this, huge demonstrations against police brutality erupted in Egypt, centred in Cairo’s Tahrir Square, the protesters calling for the removal of the country’s president, <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2020/02/hosni-mubarak-legacy-of-mass-torture/">Hosni Mubarak</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>If We Burn: The Mass Protest Decade and the Missing Revolution – Vincent Bevins (Hachette)</em></p>
<hr>
<p>These events catalysed what Vincent Bevins calls the “mass protest decade”. The years from 2010 to 2020 saw a record number of protests around the world seeking to transform societies in broadly progressive ways. Many groups were inspired by democratic ideals. </p>
<p>These protests were truly global. Those in Tunisia and Egypt became part of the wider uprising that came to be called the “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2021/jan/25/how-the-arab-spring-unfolded-a-visualisation">Arab Spring</a>”. </p>
<p>In 2013, the <em><a href="https://nvdatabase.swarthmore.edu/content/brazilian-free-fare-movement-mpl-mobilizes-against-fare-hikes-2013">Movimento Passe Livre</a></em> (MPL) or “Free Fare Movement” led to mass protests in Brazil. Initially directed against rises in transport fares, they rapidly expanded to include an unwieldy and contradictory set of groups and grievances. </p>
<p>Many other protests sprang up, including Hong Kong’s pro-democracy protests in 2014, dubbed the “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/30/-sp-hong-kong-umbrella-revolution-pro-democracy-protests">umbrella movement</a>” in their first phase by the global press. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/whatever-happened-to-the-arab-spring-10973">Whatever Happened to the 'Arab Spring'? </a>
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<h2>From bad to worse</h2>
<p>In his new book <a href="https://www.hachette.com.au/vincent-bevins/if-we-burn-the-mass-protest-decade-and-the-missing-revolution-as-good-as-journalism-gets">If We Burn: The Mass Protest Decade and the Missing Revolution</a>, Bevins starts by asking “how is it possible that so many mass protests apparently led to the opposite of what they asked for?” </p>
<p>The answer he provides is suggested in the book’s title, which <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=If5w78BrmT4">he expands</a> as: “If we burn … then what?” </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576967/original/file-20240221-24-3nryt0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576967/original/file-20240221-24-3nryt0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576967/original/file-20240221-24-3nryt0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=921&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576967/original/file-20240221-24-3nryt0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=921&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576967/original/file-20240221-24-3nryt0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=921&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576967/original/file-20240221-24-3nryt0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1157&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576967/original/file-20240221-24-3nryt0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1157&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576967/original/file-20240221-24-3nryt0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1157&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>Aiming to make sense of the significant role of mass protest across the decade, Bevins focuses on countries where the protest movements were so large that the existing government was either seriously destabilised or dislodged: Bahrain, Brazil, Chile, Egypt, Hong Kong, South Korea, Tunisia, Turkey, Ukraine and Yemen. His book explores why movements failed to achieve their goals and why, in many cases, things got decidedly worse. </p>
<p>In Egypt, for example, the Mubarak regime ended up being replaced by the even worse <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/egypts-sisi-authoritarian-leader-with-penchant-bridges-2023-12-08/">El-Sisi dictatorship</a>. In Brazil, the leftist-led protests ended up undermining the progressive government led by <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Dilma-Rousseff">Dilma Rousseff</a>, when groups on the right adopted similar tactics, media strategies, and anti-establishment and anti-corruption rhetoric. What ensued led to the impeachment of President Rousseff and the rise to power of far-right demagogue <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presidency_of_Jair_Bolsonaro">Jair Bolsonaro</a>.</p>
<p>For a significant part of the mass protest decade, Bevins was based in Sao Paulo as the Brazil correspondent for the Los Angeles Times. In If We Burn, he draws on his extensive experience as a journalist, as well as his academic background. He has travelled around the world and conducted over 200 interviews in 12 countries, which he has woven into an interesting narrative history. </p>
<p>His particular focus is on the activists who conceived and enacted the protest movements. Bevins covers their experiences at the time and, later in the book, what they came to understand about the events that unfolded, and their advice for future activists. He also engages with others, such as politicians and journalists, and draws on the work of social and political theorists. </p>
<p>The narrative is slanted towards his Brazilian home base. Bevins was there to witness the Free Fare Movement and the waves of mass protest it unleashed. Caught up in the action, he experienced, among other things, tear gassing. His colleague Giuliana Vallone was shot in the eye with a rubber bullet.</p>
<p>Vallone found her picture “flying through social networks”. Her image was used as a part of the Brazilian media’s reframing of the protests from broadly bad (leftist troublemakers) to broadly good (nationalists and patriots). </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578462/original/file-20240228-28-jrhegh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578462/original/file-20240228-28-jrhegh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578462/original/file-20240228-28-jrhegh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578462/original/file-20240228-28-jrhegh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578462/original/file-20240228-28-jrhegh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578462/original/file-20240228-28-jrhegh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578462/original/file-20240228-28-jrhegh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578462/original/file-20240228-28-jrhegh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Journalist Guiliana Vallone was hit in the eye with a rubber bullet during the Free Fare Movement protests in Brazil.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6QVLE8PQJ8">YouTube</a></span>
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<p>The effect of this reframing illustrates the power of dominant news media. As Bevins argues, media narratives shaped how the decades’ protests were viewed around the world, but they also shaped the configuration of the protests in real time, influencing who showed up, and why.</p>
<p>The reframing turbo-charged popular support for the mass protests across Brazil – but not in ways that aligned with the goals of the originators of the protests, which were taken over by an assortment of better organised right-wing groups, including proto-Bolsonaristas. </p>
<p>In a classic right-wing tactic, one group – the <em><a href="https://reason.com/2016/10/15/free-brazil/">Movimento Brasil Livre</a></em> (MBL) or “Free Brazil Movement” – even appropriated the originators’ name. “In Brazilian Portuguese,” Bevins notes,“‘MBL’ sounds nearly identical to ‘MPL’.” </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-bolsonaro-failed-to-overthrow-democracy-and-why-a-threat-remains-223498">Why Bolsonaro failed to overthrow democracy – and why a threat remains</a>
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<h2>International solidarity</h2>
<p>On June 13, 2013, while being tear gassed, the crowd in Sao Paulo chanted “love is over – Turkey is here”. They were referring to the ongoing repression of protesters in Turkey, whose <a href="https://carnegieeurope.eu/2019/10/24/legacy-of-gezi-protests-in-turkey-pub-80142">occupation of Gezi Park</a>, next to Taksim Square in Istanbul, began as a protest against the park’s redevelopment, but became a focal point for wider discontentment with the regime of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.</p>
<p>Bevins posts the words on Twitter and is stunned to see them go viral. He receives a flood of images and messages in response. Signs pop up in Gezi Park over the following weeks reading “the whole world is Sao Paulo” and “Turkey and Brazil are one”. </p>
<p>The story exemplifies a new type of international solidarity. Facilitated by the speed of social networking sites, digitally mediated mass protests in significant public places, often squares, emulated the Tahrir Square “model”. </p>
<p>The global protests extended from Taksim Square and Gezi Park in Turkey, to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/sep/12/occupy-wall-street-10-years-on">Zuccotti Park and Occupy Wall St</a> in the United States, to the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-13551878">Plaza del Sol in Spain</a> and the <a href="https://kyivindependent.com/euro-maidan-revolution/">“Euromaidan” protests in Maidan Nezalezhnosti in Ukraine</a>. </p>
<p>Bevins emphasises that these protests tended to share certain features: they were “digitally coordinated … horizontally structured … apparently leaderless … apparently spontaneous”. </p>
<p>He describes this phenomenon as a “repertoire of contention”. It involved a certain “recipe of tactics” that became largely taken for granted as the “natural way to respond to social injustice”. </p>
<h2>Repertoire of contention</h2>
<p>During the protest decade, this “repertoire of contention” was more successful than expected. It often put so many people on the streets that it gave protesters real political leverage. They were suddenly in a position where they could make demands and extract reforms from the political establishment. In some cases, they generated “revolutionary situations” where they might potentially take power themselves. </p>
<p>But this type of protest is, as Bevins observes, “very poorly equipped” to take advantage of the kinds of destabilisation or “revolutionary” situations that they create. In such situations, groups must either enter the ensuing power vacuum or use their leverage to negotiate with the establishment. The problem was that to do this effectively required the type of representation and organisation that had become almost impossible. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576969/original/file-20240221-28-vktr16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576969/original/file-20240221-28-vktr16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576969/original/file-20240221-28-vktr16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576969/original/file-20240221-28-vktr16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576969/original/file-20240221-28-vktr16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576969/original/file-20240221-28-vktr16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576969/original/file-20240221-28-vktr16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576969/original/file-20240221-28-vktr16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Vincent Bevins.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Vincent_by_Best_Wishes.jpg">Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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<p>On one hand, Bevins says this was due to the “material conditions” existing before the popular explosions. In the North African dictatorships, for example, unions and alternative political parties had been severely weakened or suppressed. As such, the protests took the “horizontal” form characteristic of the decade.</p>
<p>But in countries with democracies, however imperfect – Brazil and Chile, for example – there were unions and alternative political parties. The horizontal nature of the protests there tended to be driven by an ideological commitment to “horizontalism”. </p>
<p>The ideal was a form of radical participatory democracy, emerging from left-libertarian and anarchist traditions, in which “everyone is equal”. Hierarchy is eschewed, as is any type of enduring formal structure of leaders or spokespeople. As the anthropologist and activist David Graeber wrote: “It is about creating and enacting horizontal networks instead of top-down structures like states, parties or corporations.”</p>
<p>Bevins reports that, at crucial moments, due to their lack of organisation and structure, key actors often replicated tactics they had learned beforehand. Their “repertoire” left them ill-prepared for both the challenges and opportunities that arose.</p>
<p>An unprecedented, technologically facilitated sense of solidarity and inspiration flowed around the world, but it happened so quickly that it led to the “cutting and pasting” of approaches into different national contexts. “Transfer of solidarity” became bound up with “transfer of tactics”. </p>
<p>This meant, in particular, that the “<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alter-globalization">alter-globalisation</a>” movement, conceived in the democratic context of North America, had a disproportionate influence, creating a mismatch of tactics and circumstances. The hasty adoption of tactics meant most movements did not take the time to think through strategies that might be successful in their local context. </p>
<hr>
<p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/louisa-lims-outstanding-portrait-of-a-dispossessed-defiant-hong-kong-is-the-activist-journalism-we-need-179091">Louisa Lim's 'outstanding' portrait of a dispossessed, defiant Hong Kong is the activist journalism we need</a>
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<hr>
<h2>New strategies</h2>
<p>Bevins suggests that by taking this and other lessons on board, the deep desire for progressive change, both nationally and in the global system, might come closer to being realised in coming decades. The “mismatches” can be overcome with study and reflection on the events of the mass protest decade. More suitable “repertoires” might be arrived at. </p>
<p>The spontaneous horizontal protests, Bevins observes, “did a very good job of blowing holes in social structures and creating political vacuums”. But the power vacuums they created were filled by those who were ready. </p>
<p>In Egypt, that meant the military. The Gulf countries, especially the United Arab Emirates, were also involved in the El-Sisi coup, via their funding of the anti-Morsi <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-23131953">Tamarod movement</a>. In Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council “literally marched in to fill in the gaps”. The Hong Kong movement was crushed by Beijing. In Brazil, Rousseff was “not removed, not immediately; but to the extent that she lost influence in June 2013, that power did not fall to the anti-authoritarian left, as the [Free Fare Movement] would have liked”.</p>
<p>Lasting progressive change, Bevins argues, requires better organisation and vehicles capable of handing down knowledge, strategy and tactics to the next generation of activists. He offers the example of Chile. </p>
<p>In Chile, the role of unions and political parties, as well as the activists engaging in institutional politics, proved more successful in producing progressive outcomes than digitally organised, horizontal, mass protests alone. </p>
<p>The powerful student unions played a strong role. The “autonomist” left-wing activist <a href="https://www.gob.cl/en/institutions/presidency/">Gabriel Boric</a>, who emerged through university politics, ended up becoming president in 2022. He was pivotal in the referendum process that sought to rewrite Chile’s Pinochet-era constitution. </p>
<p>Bevins proposes that the horizontalist left is so traumatised by the “sins of the Soviet Union” and “other revolutions” that many activists have given up “the things that work” – like organisation, structure and co-ordination. </p>
<p>“But if you refuse to use the tools that work”, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=If5w78BrmT4">he points out</a>, you are “ceding your power” to those who will. It is “like showing up to a football game without a coach, strategy, or even a clear idea of who’s on your team”. Being well organised does not guarantee success, but it is essential when you enter into conflict with other well organised forces. </p>
<p>Bevins describes the decade’s dominant form of protest as being ultimately “illegible”. A key part of the problem was that “the square” was, in most of these protests, not asking for one coherent thing, or set of things. Activists, years later, often had widely divergent views as to “what the movements were all about”. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Vincent Bevins speaking at the Clough Center for the Study of Constitutional Democracy at Boston College, October 25, 2023.</span></figcaption>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-20-year-rule-of-recep-tayyip-erdogan-has-transformed-turkey-188211">How the 20 year rule of Recep Tayyip Erdogan has transformed Turkey</a>
</strong>
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<h2>American influence</h2>
<p>As the world’s dominant superpower, the United States is entwined, in complex ways, with the individual countries and the regional power-politics Bevins discusses. In 2011, for example, the US took the opportunity provided by unrest in Libya, and a brutal state crackdown in response, to invade and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/oct/20/nato-libya-war-26000-missions">overthrow the Gaddafi regime in a NATO mission</a>. Hong Kong protesters came to believe they were “sacrificed” for the Trump administration’s ongoing “propaganda war against China”. </p>
<p>Bevins also argues that the American domination of the internet has contributed to unrealistic views about the nature of social institutions, power and social change. The techno-utopianism that has accompanied its rise, the US-centric culture and ideas that circulate on oligarch-owned social media platforms, and “online communities born in the alter-globalisation era”, such as <a href="https://indymedia.org/">Indymedia</a> and <a href="https://www.adbusters.org/about-us">Adbusters</a>, played an “outsize role” in the mass protest decade. </p>
<p>Protesters’ ideas about what was possible and how to proceed were shaped by their immersion in this media landscape. Reflecting in retrospect on the prominent use of material from The Hunger Games, V for Vendetta and Star Wars, a Hong Kong activist said: “I think it is … a little sad, and definitely very unfortunate, that we got so many of our ideas from pop culture.”</p>
<p>The simplistic faith of “liberal techno-optimists” that the internet and social media are intrinsically progressive has proved unfounded, as has the belief that “the internet would make the world more like the United States”. </p>
<p>No protest action or technology is intrinsically progressive. As Bevins points out, is has become clear in recent years that the protesters’ “repertoire” of tools and tactics can be used at least as effectively by right-wing demagogues and disinformation outfits. The shock of Trumpian politics was accompanied by a sobering realisation that “the internet was something that could be used by malevolent foreign powers to undermine the American project”. </p>
<p>Digital communication, Bevins observes, has facilitated “the existence of big protests that come together very quickly – so quickly, perhaps, that no one knows each other, people are trying to realize contradictory goals, and after the initial energy fades, nothing remains”. In a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yTRkIY6NQhA">recent interview</a>, he paraphrases one Free Fare Movement interviewee reflecting on how events unfolded in Brazil: “all we wanted to do for eight years was to cause a popular uprising; and then we did, and it was awful”. </p>
<p>Throughout If We Burn, Bevins shows that “movements that cannot speak for themselves will be spoken for”. As an Egyptian activist reflects: “we thought representation was elitism, but actually it is the essence of democracy”.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221116/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher Pollard does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Throughout If We Burn, Vincent Bevins shows that “movements that cannot speak for themselves will be spoken for”.Christopher Pollard, Tutor in Sociology and Philosophy, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2228262024-02-21T12:29:46Z2024-02-21T12:29:46ZFree movement in west Africa: three countries leaving Ecowas could face migration hurdles<p>For Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso, a recent decision to <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-68122947">withdraw</a> from the <a href="https://www.ecowas.int/">Economic Community of West African States</a> (Ecowas) has thrown up questions about how they will navigate regional mobility in future. </p>
<p>Ecowas covers a variety of sectors, but migration is a major one. The bloc’s protocols since 1979 have long been seen as a <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-97322-3_2">shining example</a> of free movement on the continent. They gave citizens the right to move between countries in the region without a visa, and a prospective right of residence and setting up businesses.</p>
<p>As multidisciplinary scholars we have previously researched <a href="https://www.arnold-bergstraesser.de/en/political-economy-west-african-migration-governance-wamig-2">migration governance in west Africa</a>, at the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10220461.2022.2084452">regional level</a>, and in particular contexts like <a href="https://ecdpm.org/work/what-does-regime-change-niger-mean-migration-cooperation-eu">Niger</a>. </p>
<p>We argue that Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso have much to lose if their departure from Ecowas curtails mobility. But it is likely that informal mobility will continue anyway. </p>
<h2>Why free movement matters</h2>
<p>In September 2023, the three countries created a <a href="https://theconversation.com/burkina-faso-mali-and-niger-have-a-new-defence-alliance-an-expert-view-of-its-chances-of-success-215863">mutual defence pact</a>, named <a href="https://apnews.com/article/sahel-coups-niger-tchiani-mali-burkina-faso-insecurity-e96627c700aa4fcf8d060dd9d2d16667">the Alliance of Sahel States</a>. This indicated their solidarity in dealing with insecurity. </p>
<p>Yet they also depend on neighbouring countries in the region, which puts these three countries in a difficult position.</p>
<p>The three countries that announced their withdrawal from Ecowas are connected in a web of mobility. Notably, Niger, seen as a key transit country for refugees and other migrants on their way to Europe, received <a href="https://www.berghahnjournals.com/view/journals/migration-and-society/3/1/arms030107.xml">major funds and support</a> from the European Union to prevent onward migration to Libya and beyond. </p>
<p>One central measure was <a href="https://www.refworld.org/legal/legislation/natlegbod/2015/fr/123771">Loi 2015-36</a>, a law which punished people transporting migrants with fines and prison sentences. The law was <a href="https://www.ifw-kiel.de/publications/european-dominance-of-migration-policy-in-niger-31383/">mostly developed</a> by external actors and had detrimental effects on the <a href="https://www.clingendael.org/sites/default/files/2018-09/multilateral-damage.pdf">local economy</a>. It also made migration journeys across the Sahara desert even <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/documents/country-reports/ahrc4138add1-visit-niger-report-special-rapporteur-human-rights-migrants">more dangerous</a>. </p>
<p>In November 2023, the law, which <a href="https://www.arnold-bergstraesser.de/sites/default/files/medam_niger_jegen.pdf">arguably violated</a> the principles of free movement under Ecowas, was repealed by the Nigerien coup leaders. </p>
<p>Mali is another major transit country in the region, as well as a country of origin for regional migration. It has a complicated history of <a href="https://scholarlypublications.universiteitleiden.nl/handle/1887/72355">migration cooperation</a> with Europe. </p>
<p>Of less relevance to Europe, but more for regional dynamics, <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-031-39814-8_11">Burkina Faso</a> is at the centre for <a href="https://www.mideq.org/en/migration-corridors/burkina-faso-cote-divoire/">regional migration</a>, often seasonal. Labour migration supports Côte d'Ivoire’s cocoa industry. After withdrawal from Ecowas, such labour migration may be difficult unless people resort more to informal migration. </p>
<p>As we have shown in our <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10220461.2022.2084452">previous research</a>, informal mobility has always existed along with formal mobility governance. Official border crossing points are often not used, despite the legal requirement to do so. </p>
<p>Hence, leaving Ecowas may increase corruption and <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/imig.12766">problems of harassment</a> at formal border crossings as well as <a href="https://mixedmigration.org/resource/human-rights-migrants-smuggling-mali-niger/">increased use of mobility facilitators</a>, or “passeurs”. These are people who negotiate passage through formal border crossings and organise journeys through other routes. </p>
<p>The legal gaps that the current situation creates could be very expensive for businesses and individuals. People may in the near future require visas. And for those who have migrated regionally, the right to stay in a country of residency may soon be under threat. </p>
<h2>An immediate exit</h2>
<p>Days after they <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-68122947">announced</a> their withdrawal from <a href="https://www.ecowas.int/">Ecowas</a>, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger <a href="https://www.ewn.co.za/2024/02/08/burkina-mali-and-niger-reject-one-year-period-to-quit-ecowas">insisted</a> they were not bound by <a href="https://ecowas.int/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Revised-treaty-1.pdf#page=53">rules stipulating</a> a one year notice period before their final exit. </p>
<p>The announcement about leaving Ecowas outside the normal regulations was dramatic, but not unexpected. Military governments that took power in a series of coups in August 2020 and May 2021 in <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/sahel/mali/mali-un-coup-dans-le-coup">Mali</a>, September 2022 in <a href="https://africacenter.org/spotlight/understanding-burkina-faso-latest-coup/">Burkina Faso</a> and July 2023 in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/26/armed-troops-blockade-presidential-palace-in-niger-mohamed-bazoum">Niger</a> rule the three countries.</p>
<p>Ecowas has exerted political and economic pressure on the three countries to return to constitutional rule, through sanctions and the <a href="https://studies.aljazeera.net/en/policy-briefs/military-intervention-niger-imperatives-and-caveats">threat</a> of military intervention. </p>
<p>In Niger, for example, Ecowas <a href="https://apnews.com/article/niger-bazoum-coup-sanctions-ecowas-c7bdfd06559f1cfbfb856bea5b11a55f">closed</a> official border crossings, cut off more than <a href="https://punchng.com/niger-nigeria-cuts-power-supply-ecowas-vows-to-confront-junta/">70% </a> of electricity, and suspended financial transactions with other countries in the region. </p>
<p>International assets <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/31/nigers-planned-51-mln-bond-issuance-cancelled-due-to-sanctions">were frozen</a> and international aid halted. Even before the coup, <a href="https://www.wfp.org/news/thousands-children-niger-risk-severe-nutritional-crisis-border-closures-leave-trucks-stranded#:%7E:text=Furthermore%2C%20prior%20to%20the%20political,least%20one%20form%20of%20malnutrition.">3.3 million people</a> in Niger experienced acute food insecurity. </p>
<p>The Ecowas sanctions made daily life even worse and in all likelihood added to the <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/sahel/niger/ecowas-nigeria-and-niger-coup-sanctions-time-recalibrate">popularity</a> of the coup leaders. </p>
<p>Similar sanctions were applied in Mali. The population has suffered as a result and the <a href="https://issafrica.org/iss-today/why-arent-sanctions-preventing-coups-in-africa">effectiveness</a> of the sanctions is questionable. </p>
<p>Sanctions in Burkina Faso included <a href="https://issafrica.org/iss-today/why-arent-sanctions-preventing-coups-in-africa">travel bans</a> against members of the military government.</p>
<h2>Potential ways ahead</h2>
<p>For Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso, there are several considerations when it comes to regional mobility in their post-Ecowas era. These may include exploring the provisions of the <a href="https://www.uemoa.int/en">West African Economic and Monetary Union</a>; a return to bilateral agreements with individual neighbours; or relying on the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10220461.2021.2007788">African Union Protocol on Free Movement</a>. </p>
<p><strong>Monetary union:</strong> The three countries are still part of the <a href="https://www.uemoa.int/en">West African Economic and Monetary Union</a> (Waemu), a union around the common currency, the CFA franc.</p>
<p>The regional monetary union also has provisions for free movement of people and goods across its member countries. With this option, access to seaports, a major issue for all three landlocked countries, is ensured through other members of the monetary union, including, for example, Senegal. </p>
<p>On the downside is the fact that a major argument for leaving Ecowas was the perceived role of external influence over the regional bloc. The strong anti-imperialist discourse of the military governments does not bode well for the regional monetary union either. The union is the institutional framework for regional monetary policy over which France <a href="https://www.plutobooks.com/9780745341798/africas-last-colonial-currency/">continues</a> to exert significant influence. </p>
<p>Burkina Faso has already <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/burkina-may-quit-west-african-currency-union-not-mali-2024-01-31/">announced</a> its intention to leave the monetary union too. </p>
<p>The West Africa Economic and Monetary Union also excludes major trading partners like Nigeria – of major importance to landlocked <a href="https://www.inter-reseaux.org/en/publication/51-special-issue-nigeria/nigerias-role-in-nigers-food-security/">Niger</a> for food supplies. Trade and commerce between Nigeria and Niger provides a lifeline and is among the most intense areas of cross-border activity in west Africa. </p>
<p>For these reasons, the regional monetary union option seems an unlikely alternative.</p>
<p><strong>Bilateral agreements:</strong> Another option for the three countries could be a return to bilateral agreements with individual countries to facilitate free movement. This can be likened to what former Ecowas member <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00083968.2014.936696">Mauritania</a>, which left in <a href="https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/news/2000/12/28/mauritania-pulls-out-ecowas">2000</a>, did. </p>
<p>However, at the moment, given the sanctions, this option is off the cards, and could take many years to work out. </p>
<p><strong>African Union protocol:</strong> At a continental level the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10220461.2021.2007788">African Union Protocol on Free Movement</a> may offer a distant way forward. So far only <a href="https://au.int/sites/default/files/treaties/36403-sl-PROTOCOL_TO_THE_TREATY_ESTABLISHING_THE_AFRICAN_ECONOMIC_COMMUNITY_RELATING_TO_FREE_MOVEMENT_OF_PERSONS-1.pdf">32 countries</a> have signed it and four have ratified it, among them Mali and Niger (Burkina Faso is a signatory). </p>
<p>One way to move forward would be for countries to ramp up ratifications of this document, to ensure that cooperation on free movement can continue whatever happens to Ecowas. </p>
<p>Of course, other countries within Ecowas could also unilaterally open up for visa-free entry like <a href="https://www.africanews.com/2023/11/03/rwanda-announces-visa-free-travel-for-all-africans//">Rwanda</a> or Kenya have done, though the process has had its <a href="https://www.africanews.com/2024/01/09/kenya-backlash-over-new-visa-free-entry-policy-many-describe-as-hectic//">hiccups</a>. </p>
<p>Such visa arrangements are also unlikely to include the rights of residence and establishment guaranteed under the Ecowas framework.</p>
<p>Given the current political context, an institutionalised option seems unlikely in the near future. The most likely option would be that migration will simply continue – informally.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222826/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Franzisca Zanker received funding from the Mercator Stiftung for a research project "The Political Economy of West African Migration Governace" in 2019 which provided relevant background for this piece.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amanda Bisong is a policy officer at the ECDPM, Maastricht, The Netherlands.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Leonie Jegen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso have much to lose if they cannot migrate to and from neighbouring countries in Ecowas.Franzisca Zanker, Senior research fellow, Arnold Bergstraesser InstituteAmanda Bisong, PhD candidate, Vrije Universiteit AmsterdamLeonie Jegen, PhD Candidate, University of AmsterdamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2210672024-02-07T13:10:59Z2024-02-07T13:10:59ZIndonesians head to polls amid concerns over declining democracy, election integrity and vote buying<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572044/original/file-20240129-28-cofmi2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C603%2C5498%2C3050&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Gearing up for the election.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/IndonesiaElection/058ccdda469046b4a05ab184f9fe9154/photo?Query=indonesia%20election&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=1572&currentItemNo=3">Achmad Ibrahim/Associated Press</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In a record year for <a href="https://theconversation.com/more-than-4-billion-people-are-eligible-to-vote-in-an-election-in-2024-is-this-democracys-biggest-test-220837">elections around the world</a>, Indonesia’s Feb. 14, 2024, vote is set to be one of the largest – and it will be one of the sternest tests for democracy’s progress.</p>
<p>Voters are expected to turn out in record numbers to choose between some 20,000 national, provincial and district parliamentary representatives in what will be the world’s largest single-day election – unlike, say, in the U.S., Indonesia does not allow votes to be cast in advance.</p>
<p>While the scale of the election might seem to suggest a vibrant state of democracy in Indonesia, multiple factors – including a voting system susceptible to money politics and vote buying, <a href="https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/indonesia-election-campaign-violation-gibran-prabowo-mahfud-muhaimin-4024331">alleged violations of election rules</a>, the sheer number of down-ballot candidates, and a cacophony of political messages on social media – make it difficult for voters to know what they are voting for and to effectively express their preferences. </p>
<p>Indonesia’s General Elections Commission reports that as many as <a href="https://en.tempo.co/read/1743779/over-204-million-voters-in-2024-general-elections-electoral-roll-kpu-declares">204 million voters</a> are enrolled for the election, with about 114 million of them under 40 years of age. Polls say the <a href="https://s3-csis-web.s3.ap-southeast-1.amazonaws.com/doc/Final_Rilis_Survei_CSIS_26_September_2022.pdf?download=1">top issues for younger voters</a> include unaffordable basic goods, lack of employment opportunities, high poverty rates, expensive health services and poor education quality and service.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, there are concerns among many observers that Indonesia’s democracy has been <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/opinion/2023/03/23/is-indonesias-democracy-really-backsliding.html">backsliding in recent years</a>.</p>
<h2>Southeast Asia’s largest economy</h2>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=JhojdBgAAAAJ&hl=en">As an expert</a> on Indonesia’s international relations, I see how the election has implications far beyond the sprawling archipelago’s borders and comes at a crucial time. Indonesia is Southeast Asia’s largest economy but faces getting caught in what economists call the <a href="https://www.adb.org/publications/escaping-middle-income-trap-innovate-or-perish#:%7E:text=The%20middle%2Dincome%20trap%20captures,productivity%20is%20relatively%20too%20low">middle-income trap</a>, where its wages are too high but productivity too low to be competitive. Indonesia also plays a crucial geopolitical role in the Indo-Pacific. Its growing <a href="https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2022/05/13/why-and-how-indonesia-must-reduce-its-economic-dependence-on-china/">economic dependence on China</a> and regional tensions over <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-chinese-warships-near-miss-in-taiwan-strait-hints-at-ongoing-troubled-diplomatic-waters-despite-chatter-about-talks-207099">territorial disputes in the South China Sea</a> have <a href="https://www.wilsonquarterly.com/quarterly/when-goods-cross-borders/indonesia-should-be-at-the-heart-of-us-indo-pacific-policy">foreign policy observers and investors</a> watching the election closely.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A group of men stand smiling and waving." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572047/original/file-20240130-21-38gy0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572047/original/file-20240130-21-38gy0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572047/original/file-20240130-21-38gy0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572047/original/file-20240130-21-38gy0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572047/original/file-20240130-21-38gy0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572047/original/file-20240130-21-38gy0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572047/original/file-20240130-21-38gy0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Presidential candidates. from left, Anies Baswedan and running mate Muhaimin Iskandar; Prabowo Subianto and running mate Gibran Rakabuming Raka; and Ganjar Pranowo with running mate Mahfud Mahmodin.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/IndonesiaElection/0fcba3a1931049e0a72438f9745f3994/photo?Query=President%20Widodo%27s%20son,%20Gibran%20Rakabuming,&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=50&currentItemNo=21">Tatan Syuflana/Associated Press</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The U.S. government sees Indonesia’s democracy as critical to regional stability, and at least for the last two decades, <a href="https://id.usembassy.gov/president-joseph-r-biden-and-president-joko-widodo-announce-the-u-s-indonesia-comprehensive-strategic-partnership/">U.S.-Indonesia relations</a> have been built on shared values of democracy. Yet the election takes place against a backdrop of increasing democratic fragility.</p>
<p>Telltale signs include government attempts <a href="https://en.tempo.co/read/1253615/higher-education-ministry-contacts-rectors-over-student-protests">to restrict critics and dissent</a> in a show of executive overreach, <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/indonesia/2023/11/08/chief-justice-demoted-over-gibran-ruling.html">changes in election laws</a> to tilt the playing field toward favored candidates and so-called “<a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/23/indonesian-leaders-son-brushes-off-nepo-baby-tag-in-solid-debate-showing">nepo babies</a>,” and voter <a href="https://www.antaranews.com/berita/3886224/tpd-amin-beberkan-potensi-intimidasi-jelang-pemilu">intimidation</a>.</p>
<p>Voters will cast their ballots for one of <a href="https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/indonesia-election-anies-baswedan-ganjar-pranowo-prabowo-subianto-4031946">the three presidential candidates</a> vying to be the next president: <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/indonesia/2024/01/30/the-economist-revises-down-prabowos-electability-to-47.html">Prabowo Subianto</a>, a former military officer and politician who is running for president for the third time; <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/indonesian-presidential-hopeful-ganjar-projects-grassroots-appeal-popularity-2023-12-13/">Ganjar Pranowo</a>, a former governor of Central Java; and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/indonesia-presidential-hopeful-promises-change-end-patronage-politics-2024-01-05/">Anies Baswedan</a>, an academic, and former culture and education minister and governor of Jakarta. </p>
<p>The three candidates <a href="https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/tech/20231026141749-37-483935/visi-misi-ganjar-mahfud-anies-imin-download-link-pdf">all promise</a> to improve living standards, accelerate economic growth and infrastructure development, protect Indonesia’s resources against foreign exploitation and territorial sovereignty, promote environmental sustainability, advance human rights and democracy, and eliminate corruption.</p>
<p>Despite their similar campaign talking points, there are some differences. On trade, for example, Subianto favors protectionism. Baswedan and Pranowo support a market-based approach and a balanced approach between protecting national industries and fostering foreign investment.</p>
<p>On one of the main issues of the day, the <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/28/indonesia-to-move-capital-from-jakarta-to-nusantara-but-it-wont-be-easy.html">relocation of the capital city of Indonesia</a>, Baswedan is the most critical of the candidates. He has <a href="https://www.benarnews.org/english/news/indonesian/election-willdetermine-new-capital-fate-01262024140057.html">vowed to review the project</a>, but is unlikely to stop the move even if he wins, as the plan is already formalized into law.</p>
<h2>Massive spending and vote buying</h2>
<p>While the presence of many candidates – for example, there are 300 in <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/indonesia/2024/01/11/jakarta-sees-tight-competition-for-2024-legislative-race.html">Jakarta</a> alone, including celebrities and cabinet ministers from 17 parties, vying for 21 seats in the House of Representatives – could suggest a vibrant democracy, the <a href="https://www.kompas.id/baca/english/2023/12/07/en-biaya-politik-caleg-hadapi-pemilu-2024-membengkak">massive spending</a> among them increases the risk of vote buying. Furthermore, due to the current <a href="https://en.antaranews.com/news/269187/kpu-committed-to-open-list-proportional-representation-system-dpr">open-list</a> proportional voting systems, candidates must compete against their party peers to win a seat. This system creates a fierce competition among candidates and increases the chance of vote buying. Political scientist <a href="https://www.iseas.edu.sg/rof2024/burhanuddin-muhtadi/">Burhanuddin Muhtadi</a> argues that the problem affects 10% of voters and may be enough of an issue to sway the outcome of elections. In addition, celebrity candidates and those with a large social media following and deep pockets will have an easier time gaining support.</p>
<p>A glut of campaign messaging does not lead to a more informed citizenry. Instead, citizens are heavily targeted by <a href="https://www.straitstimes.com/multimedia/graphics/2024/01/indonesia-election/index.html?shell">social media with populist overtones</a>. And despite the digital bombardment, there is actually little information about party platforms, candidate track records or policy details – a problem when the sheer number of candidates is so large.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Political candidates shake hands in Jakarta, Indonesia." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572051/original/file-20240130-19-olefie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572051/original/file-20240130-19-olefie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572051/original/file-20240130-19-olefie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572051/original/file-20240130-19-olefie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572051/original/file-20240130-19-olefie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572051/original/file-20240130-19-olefie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572051/original/file-20240130-19-olefie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto, left, with running mate Gibran Rakabuming Raka, the eldest son of Indonesian President Joko Widodo.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/IndonesiaElection/91f8aacec6cd40e981f597776e81744f/photo?Query=indonesia%20joko%20and%20son&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=95&currentItemNo=2">Tatan Syuflana/Associated Press</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Financial irregularities tied to election funding have also dogged parties across the political spectrum, leading the <a href="https://www.idea.int/node/683">Association for Election and Democracy</a> to cite a worrisome trend of citizens coming to see money politics as acceptable within a competitive democracy. The other challenge during the election campaign is the <a href="https://kemitraan.or.id/press-release/buruknya-akuntabilitas-laporan-dana-kampanye-problem-serius-pengaturan-penegakan-aturan-dan-komitmen-para-capres-cawapres/">lack of accountability and transparency</a> for campaign funding.</p>
<h2>A slide toward autocracy</h2>
<p>The decline in the quality of Indonesia’s democracy has been years in the making. A 2023 report by <a href="https://www.v-dem.net/documents/29/V-dem_democracyreport2023_lowres.pdf">V-Dem Democracy Institute</a> highlights several factors in its slide toward autocracy. Limited freedom to publicly criticize the government is one reason, and numerous examples of intimidation and <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/10/16/students-continue-to-protest-jobs-law-alleged-police-brutality.html">attacks on students</a>, academics and <a href="https://en.tempo.co/read/1818020/stop-intimidation-against-activists">activists</a> who are critical of the administration have been documented.</p>
<p><a href="https://muse.jhu.edu/article/607612">Strategic election manipulation</a> is another form of backsliding, encompassing a range of activity geared toward tilting the electoral playing field in favor of incumbents. In a notable case, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/jokowi-indonesias-kingmaker-works-keep-influence-after-election-2023-10-14/">President Joko Widodo’s</a> 36-year-old son, <a href="https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3249354/indonesia-election-2024-gibran-resorts-gotcha-questions-jargon-vp-debate-bid-trip-rivals">Gibran Rakabuming Raka</a>, mayor of Solo, was cleared by a constitutional court ruling to run for vice president. The ruling, issued by a court led by the president’s brother, stated that the age restriction for presidential candidates that they should be at least 40 years old does not apply to those who have served as mayors, regents or governors. While Widodo claims not to have intervened in the ruling, there is a clear benefit to his family.</p>
<p>Electoral intimidation is a problem disproportionately affecting civil servants and people in poor neighborhoods. <a href="https://www.antaranews.com/berita/3886224/tpd-amin-beberkan-potensi-intimidasi-jelang-pemilu">Power brokers</a> have reportedly told some civil servants to vote for particular candidates, intimating that refusal will mean being asked to serve in some remote places in Indonesia. People in areas with high poverty rates <a href="https://www.antaranews.com/berita/3886224/tpd-amin-beberkan-potensi-intimidasi-jelang-pemilu">have allegedly</a> received threats that cash transfer programs that would benefit the community will be revoked unless they vote for certain candidates. </p>
<p>All of this takes place as younger Indonesians <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/opinion/2022/10/10/analysis-csis-survey-shows-young-voters-want-change-not-prabowo.html">look for change and better lives</a>. Their hopes for a democratic future where issues important to them can be solved, as well as securing Indonesia’s role on the global stage as a democratic partner ensuring regional stability, ride on the outcome of the election.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221067/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Angguntari Ceria Sari does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As many as 204 million Indonesians are registered to vote in what will be the world’s largest single-day election in 2024.Angguntari Ceria Sari, Lecturer in International Relations, Universitas Katolik ParahyanganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2226872024-02-07T13:10:10Z2024-02-07T13:10:10ZSuper Bowl party foods can deliver political bite – choose wisely<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573873/original/file-20240206-26-r38qeg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=44%2C8%2C5946%2C3979&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">If you are what you eat, what does that mean for your politics?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/super-bowl-or-football-theme-food-table-scene-royalty-free-image/1455050837">jenifoto/iStock/Getty Images Plus</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Conservative outrage over the presence of a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/30/us/politics/taylor-swift-travis-kelce-trump.html">female pop star at professional football games</a> is a sign of how many parts of American life and culture have taken on a partisan political flavor. </p>
<p>Partisanship doesn’t just apply to opinions about the dating lives of Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce. Food, too, is another aspect of the latest set of not-quite-political conflicts – including beverage brands and main courses. What you serve at your Super Bowl party, or what the host serves at the event you attend, can now be interpreted, or twisted, through a partisan lens.</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=dCficcgAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">public</a>-<a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=da4Qi64AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">opinion</a> research shows that <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-power-of-partisanship-9780197623794?lang=en&cc=us">almost nothing today is free of partisanship</a> – whether the item in question has anything to do with government action, political ideology or public policy, or not. At times, the issues that erupt into political skirmishes are the result of fanciful conspiratorial thinking, blatant misinformation or just the personal preferences of political leaders.</p>
<p>We have found that these developments, in which polarization invades parts of Americans’ lives that really aren’t political, deepen existing divides in society. These conflicts also make it harder to have fun in mixed political company, and harder to steer clear of accidentally offending someone at your Super Bowl party.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573819/original/file-20240206-22-o7l407.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A sign reads 'Bud Light' with the logo of Super Bowl LVIII." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573819/original/file-20240206-22-o7l407.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573819/original/file-20240206-22-o7l407.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573819/original/file-20240206-22-o7l407.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573819/original/file-20240206-22-o7l407.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573819/original/file-20240206-22-o7l407.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573819/original/file-20240206-22-o7l407.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573819/original/file-20240206-22-o7l407.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">It’s an official sponsor of the Super Bowl, but Bud Light has been part of political controversy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/inbev-bud-light-beer-signage-is-displayed-at-the-911-taco-news-photo/1973661925">Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>An eye on Bud Light</h2>
<p>Bud Light has long been one of the <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/07/rise-and-fall-bud-light-boycott/674752/">nation’s most popular beers</a>. Politics has changed that.</p>
<p>In April 2023, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/article/bud-light-boycott.html">transgender influencer Dylan Mulvaney</a> posted a video to Instagram promoting a Bud Light contest. The anti-trans backlash was swift, with calls for boycotts of the beer coming from Republicans, including <a href="https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/3992837-trump-weighs-in-on-bud-light-controversy-time-to-beat-the-radical-left-at-their-own-game/">former President Donald Trump</a>, <a href="https://www.vox.com/money/2023/4/12/23680135/bud-light-boycott-dylan-mulvaney-travis-tritt-trans">U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee</a> and <a href="https://www.houstonchronicle.com/food-culture/article/bud-light-boycott-dan-crenshaw-karbach-houston-17888207.php">U.S. Rep. Dan Crenshaw of Texas</a>. </p>
<p>By June 2023, Bud Light was <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/bud-light-dethroned-top-selling-beer-sales-modelo-america-boycott-1804728">no longer the nation’s best-selling beer</a>, falling behind Modelo Especial. The company that makes Bud Light, Anheuser-Busch, saw a 10% drop in revenue in the second quarter of 2023, which it <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/article/bud-light-boycott.html">attributed primarily to the conservative objections</a> to a trans person being associated with the brand. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573826/original/file-20240206-17-yz9iwa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A ladle holds some chili above a simmering pot full of food." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573826/original/file-20240206-17-yz9iwa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573826/original/file-20240206-17-yz9iwa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573826/original/file-20240206-17-yz9iwa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573826/original/file-20240206-17-yz9iwa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573826/original/file-20240206-17-yz9iwa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573826/original/file-20240206-17-yz9iwa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573826/original/file-20240206-17-yz9iwa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Would you like this dish less if you knew Barack Obama liked it?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/steak-chili-with-black-beans-royalty-free-image/1835909830">LauriPatterson/E+ via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Making the nonpolitical political</h2>
<p>In our book, “<a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-power-of-partisanship-9780197623794?lang=en&cc=us">The Power of Partisanship</a>,” we document that partisanship – psychological attachments to one of the two major political parties – in America has drastically increased since the 1950s.</p>
<p>We have found that more Americans identify as strong partisans than ever. We have also found that people’s political preferences are increasingly driven by negative emotions about the other party.</p>
<p>As a result of this increased partisanship, political leaders have more power than ever to introduce new issues and ideas into the public discussion, and use them divisively – even topics that have nothing to do with politics. And leaders’ views affect those of the public.</p>
<p>We found that this partisan phenomenon extends to food. For instance, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2017/02/23/trump-meatloaf-mania-moos-pkg-erin.cnn">Donald Trump likes meatloaf</a> and <a href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/obamas-chili-recipe_n_89826">Barack Obama likes chili</a>. We surveyed people and asked them about their political views and their food preferences. Some of them we told of Trump’s and Obama’s preferences, and some we did not.</p>
<p>Democrats whom we told that Trump likes meatloaf rated that dish significantly lower than Democrats whom we had not told of his preference. Likewise, Republicans we told about Obama’s preference for chili rated it less favorably than Republicans from whom we kept that information.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573829/original/file-20240206-29-wvuls8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A sliced meatloaf on a platter." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573829/original/file-20240206-29-wvuls8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573829/original/file-20240206-29-wvuls8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573829/original/file-20240206-29-wvuls8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573829/original/file-20240206-29-wvuls8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573829/original/file-20240206-29-wvuls8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573829/original/file-20240206-29-wvuls8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573829/original/file-20240206-29-wvuls8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Would you like this meal less if you knew Donald Trump liked it?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/homemade-savory-spiced-meatloaf-royalty-free-image/830989066">bhofack2/iStock/Getty Images Plus</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Menu planning</h2>
<p>So, when it comes to planning your menu, our research offers some advice.</p>
<p>For a party of Democrats, chili – possibly with an <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2019/03/arugula-rocks-come-at-me-spinach/585571/">arugula salad</a> on the side – is a safe bet. But meatloaf would be a better choice for a party of Republicans. You could reinforce those choices by accompanying the dishes with photos of the politicians with their favorite dishes.</p>
<p>Other foods also divide Americans. Consider <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/546704-rand-paul-calls-for-republicans-to-boycott-coca-cola/">steering clear of Coca-Cola if you are having Republicans over</a>: The company criticized Georgia’s 2021 law that shortened early voting and made it more difficult to vote by mail.</p>
<p>If you order takeout, some <a href="https://www.vox.com/the-goods/2019/5/29/18644354/chick-fil-a-anti-gay-donations-homophobia-dan-cathy">Democrats might be reluctant to eat Chick-fil-A</a> because of company leaders’ past opposition to LGBTQ rights and marriage equality. But more recently, it’s <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/2023/5/31/23742373/chick-fil-a-boycott-controversy-conservative-backlash">Republicans who have criticized</a> the fast-food chain for hiring an executive focused on diversity, equity and inclusion – and for shifting the company’s donations <a href="https://www.today.com/food/essay/gay-chick-fil-a-customers-rcna91009">to be less political</a>.</p>
<p>In general, we recommend doing a quick online search to make sure you are up on your social network’s preferences of the day. That’s the best way, though not guaranteed, to avoid serving up something that has recently become politicized by partisan media or party elites. </p>
<p>You might not be up for that much work. Or perhaps you are one of the few Americans left with friends who <a href="http://www.wpsanet.org/papers/docs/Butters_Avoid.pdf">identify with both political parties</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573832/original/file-20240206-18-uc0i46.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A foil pan of a dish covered in cheese." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573832/original/file-20240206-18-uc0i46.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573832/original/file-20240206-18-uc0i46.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573832/original/file-20240206-18-uc0i46.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573832/original/file-20240206-18-uc0i46.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573832/original/file-20240206-18-uc0i46.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573832/original/file-20240206-18-uc0i46.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573832/original/file-20240206-18-uc0i46.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A safe bet: People of all partisan stripes like lasagna.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/lasagna-convenience-meal-royalty-free-image/178828120">JoeGough/iStock/Getty Images Plus</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In that case, based on the research in our book, we suggest serving salmon or lasagna. Both are foods that appear to be resistant to partisan cues and are well-liked by members of both parties. Or maybe just throw a potluck, hope for the best, and you may even learn something new about your guests’ political views. Perhaps your guests will rise above partisanship and just enjoy the event.</p>
<p>The old advice to avoid talking about politics and religion in mixed company is evolving. For Americans, almost anything can be political now – from what’s on the table to what’s in the dresser or closet, and even what music we’re listening to.</p>
<p>When elites take positions, partisans follow their leaders. That means every cultural gathering, from the Thanksgiving table to the Super Bowl couch, can be invaded by political conflict. We don’t know about you, but we just want to watch the game.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222687/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shanna Pearson-Merkowitz is a fellow at the Brown Policy Lab and has received funding for research projects from the USDA, the Russell Sage Foundation, and other organizations. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joshua J. Dyck does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Polarization invades parts of Americans’ lives that really aren’t political, dividing society more deeply. That includes decisions about whether or not they like meatloaf or chili.Joshua J. Dyck, Professor & Chair of Political Science; Director of the Center for Public Opinion, UMass LowellShanna Pearson-Merkowitz, Professor of Public Policy and Saul L. Stern Professor of Civic Engagement, University of MarylandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2219302024-02-07T08:36:12Z2024-02-07T08:36:12ZFive signs that you might be rightwing<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573119/original/file-20240202-25-p9hoyx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=62%2C152%2C5928%2C3835&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/rear-businessman-front-crossroad-signpost-arrows-1589679016">Shutterstock/StunningArt</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Europe is anticipated to <a href="https://ecfr.eu/publication/a-sharp-right-turn-a-forecast-for-the-2024-european-parliament-elections/">take a sharp right turn</a> in this year’s European parliament elections. The past decade has already seen a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/23210230231166197">rightward shift in India</a>, and the United States has the greatest gap between left and right <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/03/10/the-polarization-in-todays-congress-has-roots-that-go-back-decades/">for 50 years</a>. In light of these global trends, it’s crucial to understand what being “rightwing” actually means, rather than simply <a href="https://www.bloomsbury.com/us/cultural-revolution-9781632864239/">using the term as an insult</a>.</p>
<p>The idea of “the right” <a href="https://time.com/5673239/left-right-politics-origins/">originated</a> in the French National Assembly of 1789. There, it described those who supported giving the king veto powers (who were to gather on the right hand side of the assembly hall). Today, however, “the right” covers a wide range of political positions. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A painting of hundreds of people gathered in a large building." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573126/original/file-20240202-29-1u00lq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573126/original/file-20240202-29-1u00lq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573126/original/file-20240202-29-1u00lq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573126/original/file-20240202-29-1u00lq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573126/original/file-20240202-29-1u00lq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573126/original/file-20240202-29-1u00lq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573126/original/file-20240202-29-1u00lq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The French National Assembly, where the first (literal) swing to the right took place.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/91/Estatesgeneral.jpg">Wikipedia/Bibliothèque nationale de France</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Some are mainstream, such as conservatism (focusing on tradition and order), nationalism (promoting national sovereignty and identity), and neoliberalism (supporting free markets and small government). Others are more radical, including the <a href="https://www.maynoothuniversity.ie/sites/default/files/assets/document/Stopfarright%20Final%20Report.pdf">far right</a>, <a href="https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/ideology/alt-right">alt-right</a>, and <a href="https://graymirror.substack.com/p/principles-of-the-deep-right">deep right</a>. New variants continue to emerge, like <a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Conservatism/Yoram-Hazony/9781684511105">national conservatism</a> and forms of <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/618154/regime-change-by-patrick-j-deneen/">post-liberalism</a>. </p>
<p>Such diversity makes it hard to define what being rightwing entails. Yet, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/19485506221119324">a recent study</a> of over 5,000 people in the US shed new light on the matter. </p>
<h2>The five signs</h2>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/19485506221119324">This study</a>, which used a more robust approach than much previous research, found that the more strongly someone identified as conservative or rightwing, the more likely they were to agree with five specific viewpoints:</p>
<p><strong>1. Belief in hierarchy</strong>. Most indicative of being on the political right was seeing the world as naturally hierarchical. This means believing that everything, from people to animals and objects, can be ranked based on their importance, quality or value. It’s not that people on the right want the world to be this way; they just think it naturally is.</p>
<p><strong>2. Sense that the universe has purpose.</strong> Rightwing people tended to believe there was more to the universe than just the mechanical movement of molecules. They believed it was in some sense alive and felt there was a deeper reason or purpose behind events.</p>
<p><strong>3. Acceptance of the status quo.</strong> Rather than striving to constantly improve the world, those on the right were more inclined to accept things as they were. They didn’t necessarily see the world as something that always needs fixing or changing.</p>
<p><strong>4. Resistance to new experiences.</strong> Being rightwing was linked with a certain reluctance to try new things. This mindset opposes the idea that everything is worth trying or doing at least once.</p>
<p><strong>5. Belief in a just world.</strong> Rightwing people tended to believe that the world is a place where working hard and being nice pays off. In such a world, people get what they deserve.</p>
<p>It is easy to see how common rightwing preferences, such as valuing tradition, religion, authority, personal responsibility, family <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/nana.12924">and country</a>, follow from these five beliefs.</p>
<h2>Why do people become rightwing?</h2>
<p>Contrary to popular opinion, people don’t simply become more conservative as they age. Our political views <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/706889">stay pretty consistent</a> throughout our lives. Instead, many factors influence the development of rightwing beliefs.</p>
<p>Genes gently mould our political views. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cobeha.2020.03.012">About 40% of the difference</a> between people’s political beliefs can be linked to their genetic makeup. </p>
<p>Some, but <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2009.11.013">not all</a>, researchers think this is because genes impact aspects of personality, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/tp201596">such as openness to experience</a>, which shape our political views. Genes could also make people <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12230">more sensitive to threats</a> from changing circumstances, encouraging rightwing beliefs.</p>
<p>You may wonder what rightwing adults were like as children. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrp.2005.09.005">One study found that</a> young conservative adults had often been preschoolers who felt “easily victimized, easily offended, indecisive, fearful, rigid, inhibited, and relatively over-controlled and vulnerable”.</p>
<p>This could have been a result of parental upbringing, which can also shape people’s political views. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797612440102">Research has found that</a> young rightwing adults were more likely to have had authoritarian parents when they were infants.</p>
<p>All this creates <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0052970">rightwing brains</a>. For example, young rightwing adults tend to have an amygdala – part of the brain linked to fear and uncertainty – that is both <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2011.03.017">larger</a> and more active <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/scan/nsx133">in the face of threat</a>.</p>
<p>Yet the state of society also influences how common rightwing beliefs are. The more threats a country faces, such as high unemployment, inflation and murder rates, the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12014">more common rightwing beliefs</a> are.</p>
<h2>Living with the right</h2>
<p>Such research could lead you to think that people hold rightwing views simply because they are scared and unadventurous. The right already face the prejudice that their beliefs result from their being “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0963721413514249">mentally troubled</a>”, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/01461672221089451">stupid, or immoral</a>. </p>
<p>This leaves little space for the alternative idea that people hold rightwing beliefs after careful thought about the nature of humans and the world. Those with different political beliefs may disagree with the right’s conclusions. Yet it is always easier to denigrate the character of rightwing people than to evaluate the validity of rightwing ideas.</p>
<p>In reality, being on the right doesn’t mean poor psychological health. Having rightwing views are not linked to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0146167213478199">unhappiness, low self-esteem or lower life satisfaction</a>.</p>
<p>Nor can the entire rightwing be dismissed as immoral. The right simply has different <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/a0015141">moral foundations</a> to the left. Leftwing morality <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/a0015141">focuses on preventing harm and being fair</a>. While these issues also matter to the right, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/a0015141">rightwing morality additionally emphasises</a> respect for <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/suppl/10.1177/19485506221119324/suppl_file/sj-docx-1-spp-10.1177_19485506221119324.docx">authority, purity and loyalty</a>.</p>
<p>This leaves us with the left’s perception that people on the right are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/01461672221089451">more stupid than evil</a>. Here things get complicated. People with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/per.2027">worse thinking skills are more likely to endorse rightwing beliefs</a>. Conservative political beliefs <a href="https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2020.0424">are linked to</a> a lesser ability to hold information in mind, plan and adapt to changing situations.</p>
<p>However, it could be that rightwing people are simply <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cognition.2019.104124">less motivated to do well</a> on such tasks. Furthermore, holding rightwing economic views <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/01461672211046808">may be linked to better thinking skills</a>, while leftwing authoritarianism is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/pspp0000341">linked to poorer thinking skills</a>. </p>
<p>Crucially, all this tells us precisely nothing about the validity of rightwing ideologies. These must be judged on their merits, not their holders.</p>
<p>As societies become more politically divided, appreciating different viewpoints is essential to fostering dialogue and mutual understanding. When election time arrives we must debate with ideas rather than disparage with labels.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221930/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simon McCarthy-Jones receives funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 program via a Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions Innovative Training Network.</span></em></p>Being rightwing involves specific beliefs about the world but is also linked to our genes and environment.Simon McCarthy-Jones, Associate Professor in Clinical Psychology and Neuropsychology, Trinity College DublinLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2222372024-02-06T15:58:26Z2024-02-06T15:58:26ZHow political issues hindered Turkey’s 2023 earthquake response<p>Two major earthquakes shook southern Turkey on February 6 2023. Over 50,000 people <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/turkiye/devastating-earthquakes-southern-turkiye-and-northern-syria-december-15th-2023-situation-report-30-entr">lost their lives</a> and nearly 2 million people – many of whom were Syrian refugees – were evacuated from the country’s affected provinces.</p>
<p>Disasters are not simply natural phenomena. They are also <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-59975-1_20">influenced</a> by what was not done before, during or after the event. The Turkish government’s <a href="https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/09653561011037977/full/htm">response</a> to the crisis has been reactionary rather than pre-planned, exacerbating the death toll and the suffering that has followed.</p>
<p>Because the government was not ready, basic needs in some areas were not met even days and weeks later. Victims <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/374490062_Experiences_of_Earthquake_Victim_Families_in_the_Disaster_of_the_Century_A_Qualitative_Study">reported</a> finding it challenging or impossible to fulfil basic hygiene, water, heating, clothing, sleep and privacy needs. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.who.int/europe/publications/i/item/WHO-EURO-2023-7145-46911-68823">report</a> released by the World Health Organization in March 2023, a month after the initial quakes, also indicated that people with underlying medical conditions might face limited access to medical care due to overburdened and damaged health infrastructure.</p>
<p>Over the past year, I have carried out research with colleagues based in Turkey (Arzu İcagasioglu Coban and Gonca Polat). Our study, which has not yet been published, involved exploring social workers’ experiences in disaster management in the earthquake-affected regions of Turkey. </p>
<p>The social workers we have spoken to repeatedly underline that a lack of coordination among institutions has acted to reduce the effectiveness and efficiency of the support services they provide. Following the quakes, these workers distributed aid, carried out need assessments, and offered psycho-social support to survivors.</p>
<p>In the badly damaged Turkish province of Malatya, we interviewed one social worker who said: “There was so much aid coming, but it could not be distributed. We couldn’t organise. In the first week, it was very difficult to even find water and food for the rescue teams.” </p>
<h2>Rooted in politics</h2>
<p>The deficiencies in disaster management that have been seen in Turkey are deeply rooted in <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10999922.2023.2273454">underlying political issues</a>. Turkey’s democratic institutions have been deliberately weakened by the country’s leader, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who has consolidated his rule over the past two decades.</p>
<p>In 2009, three government units were <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2212420922007270?via%3Dihub">merged</a> to form a new independent department that would prioritise risk management. This new department was called the Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (Afad). </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, speaking at a conference." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573550/original/file-20240205-28-8ywvch.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573550/original/file-20240205-28-8ywvch.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573550/original/file-20240205-28-8ywvch.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573550/original/file-20240205-28-8ywvch.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573550/original/file-20240205-28-8ywvch.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573550/original/file-20240205-28-8ywvch.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573550/original/file-20240205-28-8ywvch.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has deliberately weakened Turkey’s democratic institutions over the past two decades.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/turkey-president-recep-tayyip-erdogan-press-2240909569">Andie.NV/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, using newly acquired presidential decree powers following the 2017 constitutional referendum, Erdoğan <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10999922.2023.2273454">transferred</a> control of the Afad to the Ministry of the Interior. This move effectively eliminated the Afad’s ability to operate autonomously.</p>
<p>The decline of Turkey’s public institutions undoubtedly contributed to the <a href="https://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/271547">slow and uncoordinated</a> response to the earthquakes. There was very little rescue activity at all in the 24 hours that followed the initial quakes, and only marginally more the day after. </p>
<p>Residents in the affected areas also expressed frustration that they could not get in contact with the Afad to arrange help for themselves and others who were trapped under rubble. </p>
<h2>Uncoordinated response</h2>
<p>Many of the social workers we have spoken to argue that this uncoordinated response led to earthquake victims having only limited access to essential services such as medical help, food and accommodation in the immediate aftermath of the initial earthquakes. </p>
<p>Some participants shared the opinion that most of the newly employed social workers and other professionals lacked sufficient training and experience to provide psychological support in such crisis environments. One social worker, who worked in the damaged city of Gaziantep, said that many of those hired to give <a href="https://www.coe.int/t/dg4/majorhazards/ressources/virtuallibrary/materials/turkey/Turkey.pdf">psycho-social support</a> were “inexperienced, newly graduated personnel”.</p>
<p>Interviewees have also told us that some of the country’s most vulnerable groups, including ethnic and religious minorities, were not afforded fair and equal access to humanitarian aid. Several <a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/380/bmj.p559.full">reports</a> indicate that Syrian refugees were forcibly removed from emergency shelters and have been subjected to verbal abuse. </p>
<p>Discrimination and animosity towards Syrian refugees appear to have intensified in the earthquake-affected areas of Turkey since the start of the crisis.</p>
<p>There is still considerable need for a more coordinated <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Gizem-Tiglioglu-2/publication/371756030_Do_You_Hear_My_Voice_LGBTIQA_Solidarity_and_Resistance_in_Kahramanmaras_Earthquake_in_Turkiye_through_Lubunya_Earthquake_Solidarity_Network/links/649372fe8de7ed28ba42bc55/Do-You-Hear-My-Voice-LGBTIQA-Solidarity-and-Resistance-in-Kahramanmaras-Earthquake-in-Tuerkiye-through-Lubunya-Earthquake-Solidarity-Network.pdf">approach</a> to disaster risk management in Turkey. If nothing changes, the quality of the social services provided will continue to suffer.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222237/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hakan Acar does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Social workers encountered challenges in providing their services in the aftermath of the Turkey earthquakes, facing obstacles outside of their control.Hakan Acar, Senior Lecturer in Social Work, Liverpool Hope UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2223882024-02-05T09:27:55Z2024-02-05T09:27:55ZMali, Burkina Faso and Niger want to leave Ecowas. A political scientist explains the fallout<p><em>Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have sent Ecowas, west Africa’s main political union of 15 countries, a <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/28/niger-mali-burkina-faso-announce-withdrawal-from-ecowas">formal notice</a> of their withdrawal from the bloc. The three countries are governed by military rulers who <a href="https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/coups-africa-even-ecowas">have overthrown</a> democratically elected leaders since 2021.</em></p>
<p><em>The Conversation Africa’s Godfred Akoto Boafo asked political scientist <a href="https://www.leedsbeckett.ac.uk/staff/dr-olayinka-ajala/">Olayinka Ajala</a> about the implications of the withdrawal.</em></p>
<h2>Why are Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso withdrawing?</h2>
<p>The three countries have given <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20240129-mali-and-burkina-faso-withdraw-from-ecowas">three main reasons</a>.</p>
<p>First is what they call the “<a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/28/niger-mali-burkina-faso-announce-withdrawal-from-ecowas">illegal, illegitimate, inhumane and irresponsible sanctions</a>” imposed on them for truncating their democracies. </p>
<p>Second is the failure of Ecowas to assist them in their “existential fight against terrorism and insecurity”. </p>
<p>The juntas have also argued that Ecowas has deviated from the founding principles of the organisation and is now <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-68122947">controlled by foreign powers</a>. </p>
<p>In 2001, Ecowas adopted a protocol on democracy and good governance which included a mechanism for unconstitutional changes of government. <a href="https://www.eisa.org/pdf/ecowas2001protocol.pdf">Article 1a</a> of the protocol maintains a “zero tolerance for power obtained or maintained by unconstitutional means”. </p>
<p>Ecowas cited this clause as its reason for suspending the three countries and for imposing sanctions against them.</p>
<p>Ecowas has made it clear that it won’t work with the regimes. Its statements make it clear that it has taken a strong stance because it wishes to deter military coups in other countries within the bloc. </p>
<p>The regional bloc is also clearly frustrated at the lack of interest the three countries have shown in returning to democratic rule. It has asked for a clear and definite transition timetable, especially for Mali and Burkina Faso. </p>
<h2>What impact will the withdrawal have on Ecowas?</h2>
<p>The main impact will be on trade and economic development. Ecowas is primarily an economic community and the loss of any member will affect trade and economic development.</p>
<p>The three countries collectively account for 8% of the <a href="https://countryeconomy.com/countries/groups/economic-community-west-african-states">US$761 billion</a> Ecowas gross domestic product (GDP). In 2022, the total trade volume from the Ecowas region totalled <a href="https://punchng.com/mali-b-faso-niger-exit-may-weaken-277bn-ecowas-trade-report/">US$277.22 billion</a>. </p>
<p>The concern is that the exit of these countries could affect the flow of goods and services in the bloc. </p>
<p>Leaving the bloc could have other knock-on effects too:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>The economic collapse of the countries. These countries have strategic importance, especially in food security. Niger is a key source of onions while Burkina Faso exports tomatoes to the sub-region.</p></li>
<li><p>This would lead to an exodus of citizens to other Ecowas countries, further threatening the stability of the bloc. </p></li>
<li><p>Concerns that the three countries will enter into bilateral relationships with countries that might not be favourable to other Ecowas countries. For example, there are already concerns about Niger’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/niger-and-russia-are-forming-military-ties-3-ways-this-could-upset-old-allies-221696">alliance with Russia</a> after it severed ties with France. </p></li>
</ul>
<h2>What impact will it have on each of the countries?</h2>
<p>The main impact on the countries will be on the movement of people, goods and services. </p>
<p>Under Ecowas, members enjoy unrestricted movement of citizens within the bloc. Citizens of Ecowas countries can live and work in any country in the bloc. For instance, there are more than 5 million citizens of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger living and working in Côte d'Ivoire alone. Ghana, Togo and Republic of Benin also host large numbers of Nigeriens. </p>
<p>The citizens of all three landlocked countries would no longer be able to travel to other Ecowas states without impediments. Niger also shares a border of over 1,600km with seven states in Nigeria and <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2024-01-30/analysis-west-africas-brexit-moment-spells-trouble-for-the-region">80% of its trade</a> is done with Nigeria. </p>
<p>The sanctions imposed on Niger by Ecowas are <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/sahel/niger/ecowas-nigeria-and-niger-coup-sanctions-time-recalibrate">already affecting</a> citizens of the country. Hardship is likely to increase after the exit if Nigeria decides to police its borders. </p>
<p>Also, depending on how Ecowas agrees to relate to the countries in future, there could be restrictions on goods and services which would further affect the economies of these countries. </p>
<h2>What impact will it have on security in the region?</h2>
<p>The security arrangement might not be affected in the short term. But it could be in the long term. There is already limited security cooperation between the three countries and other Ecowas members. For instance, they have all withdrawn from the G5 Sahel, resulting in the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/6/chad-mauritania-pave-way-to-dissolve-g5-anti-rebel-alliance#:%7E:text=The%20G5%20was%20created%20in,major%20issue%20across%20the%20Sahel.&text=The%20two%20remaining%20members%20of,other%20three%20founding%20countries%20left.">collapse of the organisation</a>. </p>
<p>Although the lack of security support from Ecowas was stated as one of the reasons for exiting Ecowas, a total collapse of existing security infrastructure would affect not only the three countries but also other relatively stable states such as Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire, Togo and Benin. The three states have joined forces to form the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/military-led-sahel-states-rally-thousands-support-alliance-2023-12-30/">Alliance of Sahel States</a>, but without support from regional groups such as Ecowas, they will struggle to curtail insurgencies. </p>
<p>Currently, Mali has over 1,000 members of Africa Corps (formerly Wagner group), supported by Russia. There are <a href="https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2024-01-31/wagner-forces-under-a-new-flag-russias-africa-corps-burkina-faso">100 in Burkina Faso</a>. After months of Burkina Faso insisting it would not engage foreign mercenaries, the first contingent arrived in January 2024 and more are expected soon. Niger also recently agreed to <a href="https://theconversation.com/niger-and-russia-are-forming-military-ties-3-ways-this-could-upset-old-allies-221696">military cooperation</a> with Russia. </p>
<p>This indicates the three countries still require external assistance to combat insecurity. The problem is that Russia is fighting a huge war in Ukraine and might not be able to support the three countries as much as they would require. If the three countries fail to combat insurgence through the newly formed Alliance of Sahel States, the threat will spread to other countries in the bloc and beyond. </p>
<p>Ecowas leaders have indicated that they are willing to have a dialogue with the three countries. I think Ecowas granting some concessions to prevent them from exiting would be in the interest of the bloc and all the citizens of Ecowas countries.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222388/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Olayinka Ajala does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The decision by the three countries could change the dynamics of Ecowas.Olayinka Ajala, Senior lecturer in Politics and International Relations, Leeds Beckett UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2222882024-02-02T03:59:39Z2024-02-02T03:59:39ZAustralia’s young people are moving to the left – though young women are more progressive than men, reflecting a global trend<p>Recent research suggests <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/29fd9b5c-2f35-41bf-9d4c-994db4e12998">a growing gender gap in political leanings</a> around the world. In Gen Z, the youngest voting generation, young women are becoming more progressive than men.</p>
<p>Young Australian women, too, are significantly shifting towards the political left – but so are young Australian men, although at a relatively slower rate. </p>
<p>I’ve analysed data from the Australian Election Study, spanning 1996 to 2022, to find out what’s happening.</p>
<p>Just 24.3% of Millennials born between 1980 and 1994 – 21.9% of men and 25.7% of women – said they voted for the Coalition in 2022, representing the lowest level of support for either major party among younger people in the 35-year history of the Australian Election Study. </p>
<p>A slightly higher proportion of Gen Z voted for the Coalition: 24.6%, with a gender breakdown of 34.0% of men and 19.8% of women. </p>
<p>(These numbers will slightly vary based on exact generational definitions – birth-year boundaries – and whether non-voters are excluded from the analysis.)</p>
<p>I found that Australian Millennial and Gen Z men are more conservative than their female counterparts, but are more progressive than men of previous generations at the same stage of life. Across genders, these generations also report being in the political centre less than previous ones.</p>
<p>This runs counter to <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/29fd9b5c-2f35-41bf-9d4c-994db4e12998">reported trends in most countries</a>, where women have been shifting left “while men stand still”. In fact, in some countries like Germany, signs suggest young men are moving right.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-explained-the-seismic-2022-federal-election-the-australian-election-study-has-answers-195286">What explained the seismic 2022 federal election? The Australian Election Study has answers</a>
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<h2>A global youth political gender gap</h2>
<p>A substantial global gender gap has opened in the past six years, following decades of roughly equal ideological distribution. Young American women aged 18-30 are now 30 percentage points more liberal than their male peers, according to US Gallup data.</p>
<p>Germany reflects a similar 30-point divide, while the UK sees a 25-point gap. </p>
<p>In 2022, almost half of Polish men aged 18-21 supported the far-right Confederation party, in contrast to just a sixth of women in that age group. In Germany, there are signs young men under 30 are moving towards <a href="https://theconversation.com/german-election-continuing-popularity-of-far-right-afd-has-roots-in-east-west-divide-167844">the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD</a>), actively opposing immigration more than their elders.</p>
<p>The pattern is reflected beyond the West, too. It is evident in China, Tunisia and South Korea – where, in the 2022 election, young men backed the right-wing People Power party and young women backed the liberal Democratic party.</p>
<p>In all these cases, the dramatic divide is either exclusive to the youngest generation or is far more pronounced than the gender gap in older generations. </p>
<h2>How I reached my findings</h2>
<p>After each federal election, the Australian Election Study survey asks respondents to place themselves on an 11-point ideological scale, where 0 is extreme left, 10 is extreme right, and 5 is often interpreted as neither left nor right (the political centre). </p>
<p>I analysed this data, using <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10361146.2021.1899131?scroll=top&needAccess=true">six generational categories</a>.</p>
<p>They were: </p>
<ul>
<li>War generation (born 1920s and came of age during WWII – 1,305 participants)</li>
<li>Builders (born between 1930 and before the end of the WWII – 4,133 participants)</li>
<li>postwar Baby Boomers (born 1946–1960 - 6,651 participants)</li>
<li>Gen X (born 1961-1979 - 5,229 participants)</li>
<li>Millennials or Gen Y (born 1980–1994 - 1,672 participants)</li>
<li>Gen Z (born after 1994 – a smaller size of 264 participants, which requires caution in statistical conclusions).</li>
</ul>
<p>A person’s position on the ideological scale is influenced by their age, gender and education.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/young-australian-voters-helped-swing-the-election-and-could-do-it-again-next-time-184159">Young Australian voters helped swing the election – and could do it again next time</a>
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<hr>
<h2>Women’s move to the left</h2>
<p>In Australia’s 2022 election, the Coalition received its lowest-ever share of the women’s vote – <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-explained-the-seismic-2022-federal-election-the-australian-election-study-has-answers-195286">just 32%</a>. Conversely, the Labor party attracted more women than men (albeit to a lesser extent).</p>
<p>Reasons included a fierce rise in feminist views following the global #MeToo movement, the Liberal government’s poor response to sexual assault claims, and the mistreatment of women within the Liberal party and the parliament.</p>
<p>This reflects the global analysis reported by <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/29fd9b5c-2f35-41bf-9d4c-994db4e12998">The Financial Times</a>: the #MeToo movement has empowered young women worldwide to embrace fiercely feminist values, influencing their political outlook.</p>
<p>But the Coalition’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-explained-the-seismic-2022-federal-election-the-australian-election-study-has-answers-195286">loss of support among women</a> is not isolated to the 2022 election: it’s been happening since the early 2000s. </p>
<p><iframe id="533Jt" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/533Jt/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Men moving left too – but in lower numbers</h2>
<p>My analysis showed women are significantly more likely to be progressive than men. Across generations and political views, the gender gap has widened.</p>
<p>The most recent generation, Gen Z, appears to be the most progressive, with women in particular starkly preferring the left and placing themselves at the centre in dwindling numbers. </p>
<p>However, while Gen Z has more men than women on the right, it has less right-leaning men than any other generation – so it would be wrong to say our young men are rushing to the right, like in <a href="https://protect-au.mimecast.com/s/knLPC0YKANCgN1Y8UOBOPl?domain=ft.com">South Korea or Germany</a>. </p>
<p>The Australian data mirrors international trends, with a slight twist. Over the past decades, and across generations, Australian men and women have been moving to the left and away from the right. At the same time, they have moved away from the centre (though this is more pronounced for women). </p>
<p>Despite the gender gap, they are heading in the same direction.</p>
<p><iframe id="mpcnv" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/mpcnv/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Exploring the connection between gender and generation, I tailored my analysis to see what happened when other factors that influence political leanings were taken into account, like educational attainment, marital status and home ownership. </p>
<p><iframe id="Dc8RX" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Dc8RX/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Gender remained a significant influence, though this varies depending on the generation, with some generations more gender-divided than others.</p>
<p><iframe id="UB9PP" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/UB9PP/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Tertiary education was also significant. Women with a tertiary education are likely to be more progressive than those without one. The same applies to men, although to a lesser extent.</p>
<p>Men and women who are married and own a home are more conservative in their political views. Income itself is neither substantial, nor significant in its effect.</p>
<p><iframe id="45Ogp" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/45Ogp/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Implications for Australian politics</h2>
<p>The gender gap, along with many other factors, is reshaping how young Australians engage with politics. Acknowledging and addressing this divide is a vital step towards fostering an inclusive and representative democracy.</p>
<p>As better educated, younger women become a formidable force in shaping political landscapes, political parties risk losing touch with this influential segment if they fail to address gender-specific issues, such as those related to education, healthcare, childcare, and workplace equality.</p>
<p>The Coalition is definitely on notice, but all political parties must adapt their strategies to align with the evolving demographics. </p>
<p>The move to the left may not stop at left-of-centre parties, but continue further left, towards the Greens for example. Generational replacement may not necessarily continue to favour the Labor party if their party positions do not speak to young women in the next election.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Note: I wrongly synonymise “sex” and “gender” in my analyses, because survey research is yet to properly acknowledge and capture the gender diversity that exists in our society. However, I note it is impossible to truly understand the gender gap (and the progressive direction of younger people’s leanings) in politics if we continue to discuss the “modern” gender gap while still “traditionally” defining gender as a binary concept.</em> </p>
<hr>
<p><em>Correction: this article originally stated 29.8% of Gen Z females voted for the Coalition, but the correct figure is 19.8%.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222288/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Intifar Chowdhury does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Worldwide, young women are becoming more progressive than young men. It’s happening in Australia, too – with a twist. An analysis of the Australian Election Study yields surprising results.Intifar Chowdhury, Lecturer in Government, Flinders UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2215032024-01-23T15:13:06Z2024-01-23T15:13:06ZWhat does Wales’ future hold? New report maps options for more devolution, federal and independent futures<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570678/original/file-20240122-25-8l3je8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=20%2C20%2C6968%2C2305&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales was set up in 2021 and has been gathering evidence since then.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/united-kingdom-vs-wales-welsh-smoky-1354803587">vladm/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A <a href="https://www.gov.wales/independent-commission-constitutional-future-wales">commission</a> set up to consider the constitutional future of Wales has published its <a href="https://www.gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2024-01/independent-commission-on-the-constitutional-future-of-wales-final-report.pdf">final report</a>. The Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales, co-chaired by former Archbishop of Canterbury Dr Rowan Williams and Cardiff University’s Professor Laura McAllister, maps three different “viable” options.</p>
<p>First, they suggest “enhancing” devolution. This would see Wales operating similarly to how it does now, only with more powers for justice and policing, financial management and rail services. This option also proposes greater cooperation between Cardiff and London on energy and broadcasting.</p>
<p>Second, it suggests Wales joins a federalised UK system. This <a href="https://www.centreonconstitutionalchange.ac.uk/opinions/federal-future-uk">idea</a> often draws comparisons to the <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/federalism">US model</a>. But the key feature here is granting Wales guaranteed legal rights and defined areas of responsibility, while the UK government handles broader matters like national security and international treaties.</p>
<p>Finally, it suggests a Wales which is fully independent from the UK.</p>
<p>While the commission finds all of the options to be possible, with advantages and disadvantages, it does not recommend one as the “correct” outcome. Instead it finds that there needs to be a constructive and evidence-based debate which engages Welsh citizens, so that an informed choice can be made. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Rowan Williams stands next to Laura McCallister in the middle of a shopping street." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570683/original/file-20240122-29-v8agms.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570683/original/file-20240122-29-v8agms.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570683/original/file-20240122-29-v8agms.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570683/original/file-20240122-29-v8agms.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570683/original/file-20240122-29-v8agms.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570683/original/file-20240122-29-v8agms.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570683/original/file-20240122-29-v8agms.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former Archbishop of Cantebury Dr Rowan Williams and Professor Laura McCallister co-chaired the commission.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Independent Constitutional Commission for Wales</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Welsh government <a href="https://www.gov.wales/node/42768/latest-external-org-content?page=4">established</a> the commission in 2021. It was set up to ensure Wales is ready for any radical changes in the union, such as Scottish independence, for example. The panel included people from the four main political parties, various organisations and also surveyed the Welsh public.</p>
<h2>Criticising the status quo</h2>
<p>The report maps the deficiencies in the current devolution settlement. It identifies how the fall-out from Brexit has exposed the fragility of devolution, through Westminster disregarding the <a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02084/">Sewel convention</a>. This states the UK parliament will “not normally” pass a law which is within the remit of the devolved legislature without the <a href="https://www.parliament.uk/site-information/glossary/legislative-consent/">agreement</a> of the devolved institution. However, the convention is not legally enforceable. </p>
<p>Since the <a href="https://www.consoc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Gordon-Anthony-Devolution-Brexit-and-the-Sewel-Convention-1.pdf">2016 referendum</a>, the report points out that the Sewel convention has been overridden on 11 occasions with virtually no scrutiny in Westminster. It finds that devolution is at risk of gradual attrition if steps are not taken to add legal enforcement to the current convention system.</p>
<p>In their <a href="https://www.gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2022-12/independent-commission-the-constitutional-future-of-wales-interim-report-december-2022.pdf">interim report</a>, published in December 2022, the commission found that the status quo is neither viable for the stability nor prosperity of Wales. However, in the <a href="https://www.gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2024-01/independent-commission-on-the-constitutional-future-of-wales-final-report.pdf">final report</a> the language surrounding this was revised slightly to reflect citizens having a choice to choose “no change”. </p>
<p>The language used by Professor McAllister at the Senedd report launch, however, was more critical. She expressed disappointment with the quality of evidence from those who should have been in a position to defend the status quo. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/WSOlBi1VY-g?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Final report launch event at the Senedd.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Communication and engagement</h2>
<p>Part of the commission’s work included surveying Welsh citizens. The report finds people in Wales are often unsure about who makes the decisions on different issues. Some people mistakenly believe areas like policing and broadcasting are already devolved to the Welsh government, while others incorrectly identified the UK government as being responsible for health. </p>
<p>The report offered insights as to why this may be the case. This includes an absence of a Welsh perspective on UK affairs in the media. For example, 73% of people agreed they don’t see or hear enough about how Wales is run. </p>
<p>Public confusion is another concern. When the UK government steps in on matters already devolved to Wales, citizens struggle to understand which government is calling the shots and on which issues.</p>
<p>It finds that 81% are very or fairly concerned about how Wales is run. But Welsh citizens also lack confidence in their knowledge of the governance of Wales when discussing the constitution in abstract terms. Despite the maturity of Wales’ democratic institutions, the commission finds that devolution does not yet enjoy citizens’ full confidence, and that Welsh democracy therefore needs strengthening. The findings stress the need for more democratic innovation and community engagement that is appropriately resourced. </p>
<p>The commission acknowledges the wider challenges surrounding the current UK environment, particularly in terms of declining trust in political institutions, and the polarisation of debates surrounding Brexit and COVID-19. It acknowledges that many conflate questions about constitutional structure with assessments of the government of the day, and so greater civic engagement is needed. </p>
<h2>What next?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2024-01/independent-commission-on-the-constitutional-future-of-wales-final-report.pdf">The commission</a> stresses that all options are theoretically viable. Which step is pursued is dependent upon the values and risks people are willing to accept. </p>
<p>The report details the harm independence would cause to the Welsh economy in the short to medium term, making it a particularly unattractive option in the current climate. It also states that support for an independent Wales, or indeed the abolition of the Senedd, are in the minority. </p>
<p>Regarding the federal model or Welsh independence, wider UK input would be needed. This is because some of the issues are outside the current <a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-8544/">competence of the Senedd</a>. </p>
<p>The option of an enhanced and protected devolution is more achievable, it says. But inter-governmental relations would need to be improved to achieve this. Some 92% of people surveyed believed it was important for governments to work together. The Welsh citizens who were questioned had little time for governments blaming each other, which ultimately feeds disaffection with politics entirely. </p>
<p>The next step must be about moving away from political point scoring and slogans, and widening the national conversation about what could be the best constitutional future for Wales. Politicians in the Senedd and Westminster will set the initial tone but that debate needs to be mature and evidence-based.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221503/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen Clear does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales acknowledges each option requires UK government involvement.Stephen Clear, Lecturer in Constitutional and Administrative Law, and Public Procurement, Bangor UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2208432024-01-22T19:03:23Z2024-01-22T19:03:23ZWhat does the ‘common good’ actually mean? Our research found common ground across the political divide<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570505/original/file-20240121-27145-v4nyx3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C15%2C5176%2C3430&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Timon Studler/Unsplash</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Some topics are hard to define. They are nebulous; their meanings are elusive. Topics relating to morality fit this description. So do those that are subjective, meaning different things to different people in different contexts. </p>
<p>In our <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/bjso.12713">recently published paper</a>, we targeted the nebulous concept of the “common good”. </p>
<p>Like moral issues that elicit strong arguments for and against, conceptualisations of the common good can vary according to the different needs of individuals and the different values they hold. One factor that <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19379034/">divides people</a> is political orientation. Those on the far left hold very different opinions on moral and social issues than those on the far right. </p>
<p>How can we expect people across the political spectrum to agree on a moral topic when they have such different perspectives? </p>
<p>If we set aside the specific moral issues and focus instead on the broader aspects of the common good as a concept, we may well find foundational principles – ideas that are shared between people, ideas that are perhaps even universal. </p>
<h2>Folk theory</h2>
<p>To find such underlying commonalities, we used a social psychological <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/record/1990-98641-000">folk theory</a> approach. Folk theories are non-academic or lay beliefs that comprise individuals’ informal and subjective understandings of their world. </p>
<p>The concept of the common good bleeds into cultural perceptions and worldviews. The currency of such ideas influences how we think and what we talk about with other people. By asking people to write about or define elusive concepts, social psychologists can search for frequently expressed words and phrases and derive a shared cultural understanding from the collection of individual texts. </p>
<p>We asked 14,303 people who participated in a larger study for the <a href="https://australianleadershipindex.org/">Australian Leadership Index</a> to provide a definition of the common good, also sometimes called the greater good or the public good.</p>
<p>The sample was nationally representative, meaning it reflected the demographics of the Australian population at the time the data was collected. We then used a linguistic analysis tool, called the Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count program, to analyse the responses. </p>
<p>The program has a new function called the <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/358725479_The_Development_and_Psychometric_Properties_of_LIWC-22?channel=doi%26linkId=6210f62c4be28e145ca1e60b%26showFulltext=true">Meaning Extraction Method</a>, which processes large bodies of text to identify prevalent themes or concepts by analysing words that frequently occur in close proximity. </p>
<p>Using this method, we explored Australians’ definitions of the common good. From the word clusters derived from this analysis, we identified nine main themes:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>outcomes that are in the best interest of the majority</p></li>
<li><p>decisions and actions that benefit the majority</p></li>
<li><p>that which is in the best interest of the general public</p></li>
<li><p>that which serves the general national population rather than individual interests</p></li>
<li><p>that which serves the majority rather than minority interests</p></li>
<li><p>that which serves group rather than individual interests</p></li>
<li><p>that which serves citizens’ interests</p></li>
<li><p>concern for and doing the right thing for all people</p></li>
<li><p>moral principles required to achieve the common good</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Interestingly, these broad themes did not differ for the most part between right-leaning and left-leaning participants, meaning they were shared by liberals and conservatives alike. There is indeed common ground in people’s understanding of the common good. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/do-universal-values-exist-a-philosopher-says-yes-and-takes-aim-at-identity-politics-but-not-all-of-his-arguments-are-convincing-208014">Do universal values exist? A philosopher says yes, and takes aim at identity politics – but not all of his arguments are convincing</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>A working definition</h2>
<p>These nine themes thus reflect a deeper conceptual structure. They can be distilled into three core aspects of the common good. These relate to outcomes, principles and stakeholders. </p>
<p>The first describes the <em>objectives</em> and <em>outcomes</em> associated with the common good – for example, the decisions and actions that are seen to be in the best interests of most people. </p>
<p>The second refers to the <em>principles</em> associated with the common good and the <em>processes</em> and <em>practices</em> through which the common good is realised. </p>
<p>The final aspect relates to the <em>stakeholders</em> who make up the community or communities that are entitled to the common good and its benefits. </p>
<p>From this we arrived at a working definition of the common good: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>The common good refers to achieving the best possible outcome for the largest number of people, which is underpinned by decision-making that is ethically and morally sound and varies by the context in which the decisions are made.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In the definition above, you will detect the nine components, as well as the three broader themes. </p>
<p>While we identified a shared understanding of the common good, it is important to acknowledge that people may share the “big picture” of the common good, but differ when it comes to the social and moral issues they prioritise and the practical ways in which they think the common good should be achieved. </p>
<p>For instance, <a href="https://www.wiley.com/en-au/Why+We+Disagree+about+Inequality%3A+Social+Justice+vs+Social+Order-p-9781509557134">recent research</a> suggests that people care deeply about fairness, but society is divided by how they view fairness concerns. </p>
<p>On one side, you have the social order perspective, which focuses on processes or <em>how</em> justice is achieved. On the other side, the social justice worldview is concerned with outcomes and <em>what</em> justice looks like as a result. Both sides share a disdain for inequality, but don’t often see eye to eye about naming or fixing societal inequality. </p>
<p>If the two sides were willing to start by finding their common ground, using our working definition to probe for areas of convergence first, then moving on to discuss areas of divergence with an openness to learn from each other’s strengths might become possible. Intractable conflicts could be broken down and systematically addressed. Of course, this requires a willingness from both sides to lower their defences and listen. </p>
<p>Community leaders will encounter challenges when they unite to advance the common good. Leaders from different industries bring different backgrounds, education and priorities to the table. In order to integrate their efforts, it becomes essential to set aside contextual (and often biased or partisan) understandings of the common good to focus on the “big picture”.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220843/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Melissa Wheeler has previously received philanthropic funding to conduct research on responsible leadership. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Naomi Baes has previously worked with the Australian Leadership Index to research responsible leadership and currently receives funding from the Australian government. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Samuel Wilson receives philanthropic funding for the Australian Leadership Index.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Vlad Demsar receives philanthropic funding to conduct research on responsible leadership.</span></em></p>Finding common ground is a crucial first step in overcoming differences of opinion and perspective.Melissa A. Wheeler, Senior Lecturer, Graduate School of Business and Law, RMIT UniversityNaomi Baes, Research Assistant in concept creep - Melbourne School of Psychological Sciences, The University of MelbourneSamuel Wilson, Associate Professor of Leadership, Swinburne University of TechnologyVlad Demsar, Lecturer of Marketing, Swinburne University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.