tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/prisoner-numbers-37887/articlesPrisoner numbers – The Conversation2021-11-30T14:13:23Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1725662021-11-30T14:13:23Z2021-11-30T14:13:23ZPrison numbers set to rise 24% in England and Wales – it will make society less safe, not more<p>The Ministry of Justice is banking on England and Wales’ prison numbers rising by 23.7% by March 2026, predicting that the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/prison-population-projections-2021-to-2026">prison population will climb</a> from 79,580 to 98,500. Matched by an <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-s-greenest-and-most-innovative-prison-unveiled">intention to build space</a> for 20,000 extra prison places, this would take numbers to an all-time high for the two countries.</p>
<p>It is mainly the sentenced population rather than the remand population (those awaiting trial) that is predicted to grow. The numbers of those recalled back to prison is set to grow as well. The number of men, women, children and prisoners over 50 years of age are all expected to increase.</p>
<p>Yet evidence shows that far from cutting crime, increasing the prison rate is likely to have a negative effect on wider society. It goes against the approach many other countries are now taking to reduce their prison populations.</p>
<p>The Ministry of Justice says the main reason for the increase is the planned addition of 23,400 police officers. There are other factors listed, particularly in the area of sentencing. But the boost in police officer numbers is expected to lead to more people being charged with a criminal offence and running the risk of a prison sentence. </p>
<p>Most police officers may well “find” more crime, but it may lead to further overpolicing of poor neighbourhoods and certain ethnic minority youngsters. And this won’t make us safer.</p>
<p>It is telling that the announcement does not say that the increase in prisoner numbers has anything to do with any predicted or experienced rise in crime. It is well established that prison rates and crime rates operate largely independent from each other. Similarly, evidence shows an increase of the use of imprisonment has only a <a href="https://www.vera.org/downloads/publications/for-the-record-prison-paradox_02.pdf">marginal effect</a> on crime rates.</p>
<h2>Fewer prisoners, safer country</h2>
<p>We can therefore conclude that the predicted increase in prisoners in England and Wales is driven by something else. What we see in the is a political initiative to increase the prison population. It is an example of <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/mono/10.4324/9780203963678/penal-populism-john-pratt">penal populism</a>, where government devises policy to appeal to certain groups of voters, and influential organisations like newspapers and right-wing think tanks, rather than rely on evidence. </p>
<p>A big increase in the prison population is not something to celebrate. We know from decades of research around the world that prison does not work. Prison does not <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-019-0604-8.epdf?author_access_token=DkRTKnN52jSa57DJfVSJr9RgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0N7DXAiRotAfXgj74hPXiD-HZ6bhC4ubDMXB7DKYA3al6M-fCC0R_xN_AocUuu46fM4E15xMiYZ3e27XAy7L-UXmAaZMQeNezpSFXaAdGs_Zw%3D%3D">reduce reoffending</a>, and, on average, fails to prepare prisoners for a successful return to society. </p>
<p>Recidivism rates – relapses into criminal behaviour – are high and have been so <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0130390">for decades</a>. Psychological interventions in prison do not seem to <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221503662100170X">make much difference</a> either.</p>
<p>The truth about prisons is that they are simply too traumatising, too dangerous, and too disruptive to life and self to be able to offer a positive future. Most are places in which only the most resilient and determined prisoners are able to reinvent themselves and leave their criminal past behind. </p>
<p>The projected growth in prison numbers would reverse the decline from 87,000 prisoners seen since 2012. Again, this wasn’t related to crime rates. Rather, prison rates were actively reduced by stealth. Austerity measures reduced the number of police officers, but a reduction in the number of courts and courtrooms was <a href="https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8372/CBP-8372.pdf">already underway</a> before then, and has continued since. </p>
<p>Not only would an increase in the prison population mark a break in the previous trend for England and Wales, it would also be out of sync with global patterns. The prison rate is going down in many countries, including some of the most incarcerative nations like the US and Russia. </p>
<p>The US, once the world leader in incarceration rates, has seen a reduction of its prison population from 2.3 million in 2008 to just under 1.8 million in early 2021, a <a href="https://www.vera.org/downloads/publications/people-in-jail-and-prison-in-spring-2021.pdf">reduction of 23%</a>. This is in part due to fewer prosecutions but also because of sentencing reforms like the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/dec/18/first-step-act-criminal-justice-reform-passes-senate">First Step Act 2018</a> which allows for less draconian sentencing, notably in the area of drugs offences.</p>
<p>Even more dramatically, the Russian prison population has almost halved in 20 years, from over 1 million prisoners to just over 500,000, according to the <a href="https://www.prisonstudies.org/country/russian-federation">World Prison Brief</a>. Closer to the UK, the <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1477370819896220">prison rate in the Netherlands</a> dropped over 40% in less than a decade, with more than 25 Dutch prisons closed or repurposed as a result. </p>
<p>Both <a href="https://www.prisonstudies.org/country/united-kingdom-scotland">Scotland</a> and <a href="https://www.prisonstudies.org/country/united-kingdom-northern-ireland">Northern Ireland</a> have also seen a decrease since 2012. England and Wales, therefore, are set to buck a national, a regional and a global trend. </p>
<p>The UK would be wiser to emulate the reduction in the prison populations seen around the world. Society would be safer for it – and some of the excessive cost of imprisonment could be better used elsewhere.</p>
<p>Prison produces individuals who are angry, traumatised, mentally unwell and who are likely to have lost their family support, social network and jobs. For many, these factors are likely to lead to relapses into criminal behaviour. Should we succeed in relying on imprisonment less, society will therefore be more, not less safe.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/172566/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Francis Pakes does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Increasing the prison population will put England and Wales out of step with their neighbours.Francis Pakes, Professor of Criminology, University of PortsmouthLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1296962020-01-20T19:03:56Z2020-01-20T19:03:56ZPrisoner numbers in Australia have decreased, but we’re not really sure why yet<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310785/original/file-20200120-118337-lhg10i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=9%2C9%2C5997%2C3998&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Prison rates have stopped increasing for the first time in seven years. In fact, they've decreased by 1%. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">from www.shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The latest release of the Australian Bureau of Statistics <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/4517.0">Prisoners in Australia</a> data provides a surprising change: for the first time in seven years, the national imprisonment rate has not increased. In fact, it has decreased by 1%. </p>
<p>The female imprisonment rate decreased by 5%, breaking the trend of a vastly increasing number of women in prison since 2011. And this decrease is most pronounced with respect to Indigenous women, seeing their imprisonment rate going down by 11% over the last year. (Although they remain the fastest growing subgroup within the prison population as their imprisonment rate has more than doubled since 2000.)</p>
<p>So why have we seen a decrease? Looking at the data paints a complicated picture.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/three-charts-on-australias-booming-prison-population-76940">Three charts on: Australia's booming prison population</a>
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<h2>8 different jurisdictions</h2>
<p>As Australia consists of eight independent jurisdictions, each with its own legislation and penal culture, there are significant differences in the size of their prison populations. </p>
<p>All jurisdictions, except for Tasmania and Victoria, show a small decrease in their imprisonment rate over the last year. However, it’s still the case that the Northern Territory imprisons proportionally about four times as many people as the national average, followed by Western Australia (1.6 times). Both jurisdictions having been in pole position for decades. </p>
<p>While imprisonment rates are historically well below the national average in Victoria, they have been increasing continuously since 2010, including over the last year.</p>
<h2>Important subpopulations</h2>
<p>There are also some subgroups that have been a matter of specific concern for some years.</p>
<p>The proportion of people on remand, awaiting their trial, is still increasing. These people, who are technically “innocent until proven guilty”, now account for 33% of the total prison population. This increase started in 2010 following several changes to the legislation restricting the use of bail, which has a <a href="https://www.indigenousjustice.gov.au/publications/the-growth-in-remand-and-its-impact-on-indigenous-over-representation-in-the-criminal-justice-system/">stronger impact on Indigenous defendants</a>. This is <a href="https://www.indigenousjustice.gov.au/publications/the-growth-in-remand-and-its-impact-on-indigenous-over-representation-in-the-criminal-justice-system/">due to</a> their offending and remand history, as well as social, economic and cultural disadvantage.</p>
<p>The stagnation of the Indigenous imprisonment rate, and particularly the decrease for Indigenous women, still leaves us with a very bleak picture when it comes to Indigenous over-representation. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people are still 12 times more likely to be in prison. Indigenous women are 19 times more likely than non-Indigenous women. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/data-gaps-mean-indigenous-incarceration-rates-may-be-even-worse-than-we-thought-63044">Data gaps mean Indigenous incarceration rates may be even worse than we thought</a>
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<p>From the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/4519.0Main+Features12017-18?OpenDocument">limited data we have</a> available on Indigenous offending, we know the rate of Indigenous people charged with offences is higher than for non-Indigenous people, but remains stable over time. Therefore, it is not an adequate explanation for their rapid increase in the prison population until this year.</p>
<p>The data also provide a snapshot of the profile of people in prison on the 30th of June of that year. As Indigenous people tend to serve <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/4519.0Main+Features12017-18?OpenDocument">shorter terms in prison</a>, they are less likely to be captured on a one-off date. </p>
<p>Data from another Australian Bureau of Statistics source show the influx of Indigenous men and women into the prison system is going up, <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/Ausstats/abs@.nsf/0/EEEF9189FF9C992FCA258354000BB282?OpenDocument">particularly in the Eastern states</a>. </p>
<p>Uncharacteristically, it’s Western Australia and the Northern Territory that are showing the most consistent decrease in Indigenous prisoner receptions.</p>
<h2>International comparison</h2>
<p>A decrease in the prison population is part of a more global trend. While prison populations were increasing from the second half of the eighties and throughout the nineties in most countries where consistent data was available, this started to reverse in the first decade of the new millennium. </p>
<p>Looking at the <a href="https://www.prisonstudies.org/world-prison-brief-data">World Prison Brief data</a>, imprisonment rates are currently decreasing in several Anglo-Saxon countries (which traditionally have high imprisonment rates), in continental European countries (which tend to have lower rates), and in Nordic countries (which for many years have had very low imprisonment rates).</p>
<h2>Crime or policies?</h2>
<p>There is the question as to whether this decrease is caused by a reduction in rates of criminal behaviour or whether it has been driven by changing public and criminal justice policies. From an international perspective, crime rates have been going down since the nineties. </p>
<p>Australia also experienced a significant <a href="https://journals-sagepub-com.ezproxy.library.uwa.edu.au/doi/full/10.1177/0004865818757585">fall in recorded crime rates</a> between 2002 and 2016. The murder rate fell by 33%, the rate of kidnapping/abduction fell by 29%, the robbery rate fell by 58%, the rate of burglary/break-and-enter fell by 55%, the rate of motor vehicle theft fell by 54% and the rate of other theft fell by 26%.</p>
<p>But over the same period, the Australian imprisonment rate grew by 36%. This is most likely due to changes in crime (increase of drug-related crime), stricter penal policies towards certain forms of crime, but even more so, targeted policing. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-evidence-is-in-you-cant-link-imprisonment-to-crime-rates-40074">The evidence is in: you can't link imprisonment to crime rates</a>
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<p>Australian penal politics have strongly been driven by a “law and order” discourse, often in a bet for <a href="https://journals-sagepub-com.ezproxy.library.uwa.edu.au/doi/full/10.1177/1462474515590891">electoral win</a>. However, crime and justice have been less prominent in recent state elections, or the punitive approach was not supported (see the 2014 Victorian election, and the 2015 Queensland election).</p>
<p>As prison populations are the outcome of a complex interaction of several factors, it’s not easy and probably too early to understand what led to a drop in numbers over the past year.</p>
<p>What’s important is that there are <a href="https://www.alrc.gov.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/summary_report_133_amended.pdf">now numerous reports</a> and countless recommendations to address the overuse of imprisonment, as it is expensive and has been proven to be little effective. Hopefully this means Australia is joining the international trend of a more parsimonious use of the most severe sanction as a means to combat crime.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129696/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hilde Tubex receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>Crime rates are down, but they were decreasing while imprisonment rates were increasing, so that doesn’t really explain lower numbers in our prisons.Hilde Tubex, Associate professor, The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/913942018-02-19T18:47:48Z2018-02-19T18:47:48ZHow we can put a stop to the revolving door between homelessness and imprisonment<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/206866/original/file-20180218-75967-16ix51i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Having a safe and stable place to live is key to breaking entrenched cycles of poverty and criminal justice system involvement.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Tracey Nearmy</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Homeless people <a href="https://www.ahuri.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/2210/AHURI_Final_Report_No46_Ex_prisoners_and_accomodation.pdf">are over-represented</a> in Australia’s prisons, and previously incarcerated people are over-represented among the homeless. Experiencing homelessness <a href="https://aic.gov.au/publications/tandi/tandi492">increases</a> the risk of criminal justice system involvement, and experiencing imprisonment increases the likelihood of homelessness.</p>
<p>Data from the <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/homelessness-services/specialist-homelessness-services-2016-17/contents/contents">Australia Institute of Health and Welfare</a> and the <a href="http://www.justicehealth.nsw.gov.au/publications/2015_NHPS_FINALREPORT.pdf">New South Wales Justice Health Survey</a> highlight both the over-representation of homeless people inside prisons and the absence of accommodation services for them on their release.</p>
<p>Over the past five years in NSW, the increasing prisoner population has been the subject of much policy and budget attention. There has been a considerable expansion of the state’s prisons, and an <a href="http://www.justice.nsw.gov.au/Pages/media-news/media-releases/2016/$237m-investment-in-reducing-reoffending.aspx">unprecedented investment</a> in programs intended to reduce re-offending. </p>
<p>However, services that respond to unstable accommodation and homelessness for those who have spent time in prison have remained largely on the outskirts of discussions about reducing prisoner numbers and government investment.</p>
<h2>The numbers game</h2>
<p><a href="http://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/Documents/custody/NSW_Custody_Statistics_Dec2017.pdf">18,284 people</a> were released from NSW prisons in 2016-17. </p>
<p>The number of people attempting to access homelessness services from custody in NSW has <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/homelessness-services/specialist-homelessness-services-2016-17/data">almost doubled</a> over the last six years, from 1,121 in 2011-12 compared to 2,176 in 2016-17. </p>
<p>The NSW prisoner population has <a href="http://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/Pages/bocsar_media_releases/2018/mr-NSW-Custody-Statistics-Quarterly-update-Dec-2017.aspx">increased by 33%</a> over this period. Quite aside from this, there also appears to be a growth in homelessness among prisoners, and an absence of pathways out of the criminal justice system for those at risk of homelessness.</p>
<p>Demand for homelessness services across the board in NSW is growing. These services <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/homelessness-services/specialist-homelessness-services-2016-17/data">supported 74,216 people</a> in 2016-17, compared to 52,105 in 2011-12. However, despite this increase in the provision of services, the homelessness sector is not funded or able to meet demand.</p>
<p>37.2% of people who required accommodation support in NSW <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/homelessness-services/specialist-homelessness-services-2016-17/data">did not receive it</a> in 2016-17. <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/homelessness-services/specialist-homelessness-services-2016-17/data">This includes</a> 12,280 people who were homeless and needing crisis or emergency accommodation.</p>
<h2>An unclear picture</h2>
<p>These numbers paint a stark picture of the absence of services available for those who request it, and detail an increase in requests for support from people leaving prison. But it cannot adequately capture the situation for people who did not, or could not, request support. </p>
<p>Although the number of people requesting assistance from inside prison has grown, it is impossible for many people in prison to access support from community agencies on the outside. </p>
<p>Limited access to phone calls or information, and reliance on program staff within the prisons to facilitate requests, frequently mean that people inside prison are not able to request accommodation assistance. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.humanrights.gov.au/sites/default/files/document/publication/Cost%20benefit%20analysis.pdf">The over-representation</a> of people in prison with mental health and cognitive disabilities further complicates access to services, as do the numbers of people in prison from highly disadvantaged and inadequately resourced communities. </p>
<p>There is some limited short-term accommodation support in place for people on parole, who generally have conditions that require some form of address on release. But for the <a href="http://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/Documents/custody/NSW_Custody_Statistics_Dec2017.pdf">majority</a> of people released from remand, or after a short sentence, or for people coming out with no parole period, there is no clear accommodation pathway out of prison.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.justicehealth.nsw.gov.au/publications/2015_NHPS_FINALREPORT.pdf">Almost 10%</a> of the NSW prisoner population was homeless prior to incarceration. And when looking beyond primary homelessness and into secondary homelessness (people who move from one temporary site of accommodation to another), almost one-quarter of the prisoner population lived in unstable housing prior to their incarceration.</p>
<p>In NSW, <a href="http://www.justicehealth.nsw.gov.au/publications/2015_NHPS_FINALREPORT.pdf">24.6% of people in prison</a> either have no fixed address, or have moved twice or more in the six months prior to entering prison.</p>
<p>This picture is much worse for women. <a href="http://www.justicehealth.nsw.gov.au/publications/2015_NHPS_FINALREPORT.pdf">27.7% of women</a> in prison in NSW were in primary or secondary homeless prior to incarceration. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://njca.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Kilroy-Debbie-Women-in-Prison-in-Australia-paper.pdf">large majority of women</a> in prison (85%) have been the victim of domestic/family violence. Women exiting prison frequently return to living environments where they are at risk of violence, because there are no appropriate and affordable housing options.</p>
<p>Over half (51.3%) of those released from prison in NSW return <a href="http://www.pc.gov.au/research/ongoing/report-on-government-services/2018/justice">within two years</a>. There are thousands of people released from prison into homelessness in the community each year. But across the state, there are only 58 beds available specifically for people who are homeless immediately on release from prison. </p>
<h2>Why stable housing is key</h2>
<p>Having a safe and stable place to live <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1375/acri.39.1.20">is key</a> to breaking entrenched cycles of poverty and criminal justice system involvement. And people who do not have stable accommodation following release from custody are more likely to re-offend and <a href="http://www.justicehealth.nsw.gov.au/publications/2015_NHPS_FINALREPORT.pdf">end up back in prison</a>.</p>
<p>Building pathways outside of the criminal justice system that incorporate housing is critical for both the promotion of community safety, and for the people inside our prisons who are too often trapped for in cycles of homelessness and incarceration. </p>
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<p><em>This article was co-authored by Dr Mindy Sotiri, Program Director (Advocacy, Research and Policy) for the Community Restorative Centre.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/91394/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sophie Russell works for the Community Restorative Centre NSW, and is involved in a voluntary capacity with the Women's Justice Network and Glebe House. Sophie works on research projects funded by the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>Experiencing homelessness increases the risk of criminal justice system involvement, and experiencing imprisonment increases the likelihood of homelessness.Sophie Russell, Research Associate, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/761422017-04-18T19:48:32Z2017-04-18T19:48:32ZMandatory minimum sentences and populist criminal justice policy do not work – here’s why<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/165524/original/image-20170418-32703-17iylfc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Successive reviews and inquiries have revealed that mandatory sentences fail to achieve their stated aims.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Victorian Liberal Party <a href="http://matthewguy.com.au/media-release/guy-taking-back-our-state-the-liberal-nationals-plan-to-tackle-violent-re-offending/">recently announced</a> that, if elected in November 2018, it would introduce mandatory minimum sentences for repeat violent offenders as part of its crackdown on crime.</p>
<p>Heralded as a <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victorian-liberals-push-for-mandatory-sentences-for-repeat-violent-offenders-20170410-gvi75e.html">“two-strike” approach</a>, the proposal applies specifically to repeat offenders and 11 violent crimes, including murder, rape and armed robbery. Shadow Attorney-General John Pesutto claimed the proposed new sentencing laws were “unprecedented” in Victoria and “will be certainly among the toughest measures that anyone has sought to introduce in our criminal justice system”.</p>
<p>Although obviously intended to improve community safety, mandatory minimum sentencing policies run counter to the significant <a href="https://www.sentencingcouncil.vic.gov.au/sites/default/files/publication-documents/Mandatory%20Sentencing%20Sentencing%20Matters%20Research%20Paper.pdf">body of evidence</a> indicating that this approach to sentencing is costly, unlikely to improve public safety nor effective in deterring future offending.</p>
<p>Despite this, such political promises are neither new nor unique to Victoria.</p>
<h2>Mandatory minimum sentencing across Australia</h2>
<p>Mandatory maximum and minimum sentencing policies have been introduced to varying degrees across other Australian states and territories. Western Australia, the Northern Territory, Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria have each introduced minimum terms of imprisonment for a variety of different offences.</p>
<p>At the Commonwealth level, the <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/consol_act/ma1958118/">Migration Act</a> imposes mandatory minimum terms of imprisonment for aggravated people-smuggling offences.</p>
<p>The widespread uptake of such policies should not, however, be considered an indicator of their success in practice. Successive <a href="https://www.liv.asn.au/getattachment/22c3c2c9-45a5-45c4-96e6-f0affdfe2ff8/mandatory-minimum-sentencing.aspx">reviews and inquiries</a> have revealed that mandatory sentences fail to achieve their stated aims and have unintended consequences in practice, particularly for marginalised and diverse communities.</p>
<h2>Failure to enhance public safety</h2>
<p>The limits and dangers of mandatory sentencing schemes are well-established in Australian and international research.</p>
<p>Importantly, <a href="https://www.sentencingcouncil.vic.gov.au/publications/does-imprisonment-deter">we know</a> the threat of a mandatory minimum term of imprisonment does little to deter future offending. Therefore, the approach fails to achieve its aim of reducing offending and increasing public safety.</p>
<p>While policies that promise definite and lengthy terms of imprisonment for repeat violent offences may appear attractive within populist politics, they undermine long-established principles of proportionality and individualised justice. </p>
<p>In sentencing offenders for serious violent crime, senior members of the judiciary are in an expert position to determine the appropriate sentence to be imposed. Politicians lack the qualifications and experience to determine sentences, though they can pass legislation that reflects public concern and gives the judiciary the power to determine sentences for punishment, deterrence and rehabilitation.</p>
<p>By weighing up the individual facts of a case, a person’s offending and their individual circumstances, a judge works to apply a just sentence. Such a complex act of sentencing should not be used by politicians as a response to populist concerns.</p>
<h2>The cost of mandatory sentencing</h2>
<p>The failure of mandatory sentencing to achieve its stated aims also comes at a significant cost to public money. By their very nature, such policies divert more people into the prison system and for lengthier periods of time. The result is greater cost.</p>
<p>Take the recent Victorian policy announcement for example. In 2015, <a href="http://www.pc.gov.au/research/ongoing/report-on-government-services/2015">the Productivity Commission found</a> that it cost A$103,000 annually to imprison one person in a secure Victorian prison facility. Victorian Opposition Leader Matthew Guy estimated the proposed sentencing laws would impact 3-4,000 people “<a href="https://au.news.yahoo.com/vic/a/34997592/do-mandatory-minimum-sentences-work/#page1">over a period of time</a>”. </p>
<p>On this basis, over the government’s four-year term, if 3,000 additional people were imprisoned for one year, the opposition’s proposed policy would cost – at minimum – an estimated $309 million. If this cost were repeated each year for the four-year term of government, the cost of the policy would be a minimum of $1.236 billion. </p>
<p>From a purely economic perspective, the cost of this approach is staggering. That $309 million will not be spent on tackling the underlying causes of crime or implementing evidence-based criminal justice policies.</p>
<p>And, at a time when Victoria – and many Australian jurisdictions – is imprisoning more people than ever, any policies that increase prisoner numbers must be seriously reconsidered.</p>
<h2>‘Political’ responses to crime</h2>
<p>Policies such as that announced by the Victorian Liberals are commonplace in the lead-up to state elections, when parties often mount “law and order” campaigns. </p>
<p>Politicians will often promise tougher criminal justice policies, usually in the form of longer terms of imprisonment, or <a href="http://www.aic.gov.au/media_library/conferences/outlook99/dixon.pdf">zero-tolerance policing</a>. This is all sold as taking action to “keep the community safe”.</p>
<p>The political nature of such reforms was evident in 2014. Following a series of high-profile “one-punch” homicide deaths, NSW <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/barry-ofarrell-announces-tough-laws-to-combat-alcoholfuelled-violence-20140121-315wg.html">introduced</a> a minimum term of eight years’ imprisonment for offenders who were intoxicated while committing such a crime. Championed by then-premier Barry O’Farrell and later introduced by Mike Baird, the harsh approach to sentencing was touted as a response to public outrage over increasing levels of alcohol-fuelled violence.</p>
<p>Over two years on, the Law Council of Australia <a href="https://www.lawcouncil.asn.au/lawcouncil/images/LCA-PDF/discussion%20papers/MS_Discussion_Paper_Final_web.pdf">has appealed</a> for the abolition of the law, noting that mandatory minimums “<a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/ineffective-onepunch-mandatory-sentences-should-be-scrapped-says-law-council-20160414-go6ib4.html">create greater law and order problems</a>” than they solve.</p>
<h2>Why we must learn from our mistakes</h2>
<p>Since the Victorian Liberals’ announcement, the proposal for mandatory minimum sentencing has been met with <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victorian-liberals-push-for-mandatory-sentences-for-repeat-violent-offenders-20170410-gvi75e.html">significant criticism</a> from the legal and academic community. Their concerns are well founded. </p>
<p>Australian states and territories must move away from populist, ineffective “law and order” policies in favour of evidence-based and individualised responses to serious criminal justice concerns.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/76142/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kate Fitz-Gibbon is a Senior Lecturer in Criminology at Monash University and a Honorary Research Fellow in the School of Law and Social Justice at University of Liverpool. She is a member of the Monash Gender and Family Violence Research Focus Program (<a href="http://artsonline.monash.edu.au/gender-and-family-violence/">http://artsonline.monash.edu.au/gender-and-family-violence/</a>). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Roffee does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>At a time when many Australian jurisdictions are imprisoning more people than ever, any policies that increase prisoner numbers must be seriously reconsidered.Kate Fitz-Gibbon, Senior Lecturer in Criminology, Monash UniversityJames Roffee, Senior Lecturer in Criminology, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.