tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/pup-10831/articlesPUP – The Conversation2018-06-21T18:49:00Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/985442018-06-21T18:49:00Z2018-06-21T18:49:00ZClive Palmer has a Trump-style slogan, but is no sure bet to return to parliament<p>With August 4th looming as the earliest possible date for an election of the full House of Representatives and half the Senate, the founder of the now-defunct Palmer United Party and former MP, Clive Palmer, <a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-clive-palmers-back-on-the-trail-with-brian-burston-in-tow-98501">has flagged his intention to run again</a>. The new incarnation of the Palmer tilt will be the “United Australia Party”, which was also the name of the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Australia_Party">predecessor to the modern Liberal party</a>. </p>
<p>Presumably in a bid to hitch himself to Donald Trump-style populism in the United States, Palmer’s early election advertising signals his desire to <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/clive-palmer-funds-hundreds-of-make-australia-great-billboards/news-story/aeeacbe86f01a2da849c29a79a404640">“Make Australia Great”</a>. </p>
<p>Billboards featuring Palmer, his new party name and the slogan are popping up all over Australia.</p>
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<h2>Right-wing struggles</h2>
<p>Palmer’s re-emergence seems somewhat ludicrous given the disasters that befell his former party following the 2013 election that saw him and three senators elected. For those who have forgotten, <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-clive-palmers-personal-party-is-doomed-to-end-in-tears-38772">the PUP imploded</a> almost the moment it tried to have the first meeting of its new parliamentary team, and Palmer was also <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/clive-palmer-wins-court-case-against-chinese-company-20150504-1na97l.html">pursued in the courts</a> over his business interests. </p>
<p>The only survivor of the PUP era was Tasmanian <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-lambie-loose-in-the-top-paddock-of-parliament-32027">Jacqui Lambie</a>, and even she was unable to see out her next senatorial term, <a href="https://theconversation.com/shorten-recruits-keneally-for-bennelong-as-citizenship-crisis-claims-lambie-87436">thanks to problems with her citizenship</a>.</p>
<p>Given all this, it would seem Palmer’s return to the fray is another manifestation of his narcissistic nature, although there is also a strong hint of opportunism behind the formation of the UAP. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/mining-magnate-property-tycoon-politician-just-who-is-clive-palmer-6646">Mining magnate, property tycoon - politician? Just who is Clive Palmer?</a>
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<p>In the past two general elections, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-39111317">an array of minor right-wing parties</a> – be they anti-environment, socially conservative or populist – have captured seats in parliament, only to later disintegrate between election cycles. Presumably, Palmer sees a potential constituency and he is out to win its vote.</p>
<p>Palmer’s UAP is yet another in the pantheon of right–of-centre minor parties that have grown in number over the last three electoral cycles that have been notable for their volatility and lack of discipline. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2016/07/09/the-return-pauline-hanson-and-one-nation/14679864003470">re-emergence of Pauline Hanson</a> and the One Nation party is a case in point. Having struggled to survive after the 1998 election, One Nation re-appeared in time for the 2016 Senate vote, securing four seats and exercising some cross-bench influence over the balance of power in the upper chamber. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-mice-that-may-yet-roar-who-are-the-minor-right-wing-parties-17305">The mice that may yet roar: who are the minor right-wing parties?</a>
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<p>However, from the moment the parliamentary team got together, One Nation started to fall apart through the disqualification of senators and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com.au/one-nation-pauline-hanson-brian-burston-2018-5">ongoing tensions</a> between Hanson and the remnants of her party. </p>
<p>Indeed, the implosion of One Nation since the 2016 election may well have been the catalyst for Palmer’s re-mobilisation, especially in Queensland, where the populist, anti-establishment vote has been quite strong for some time. </p>
<p>Palmer has been the beneficiary of this vote in the past. In 2013, Palmer won the lower house seat of Fairfax and Glen Lazarus, who led the PUP Senate ticket in Queensland, easily secured a seat in the upper chamber. </p>
<p>The PUP lost the populist vote to One Nation in the 2016 election, but with One Nation’s recent struggles, Palmer clearly thinks he can win back this segment of the electorate and return to national politics.</p>
<h2>Uncertain return</h2>
<p>There are some serious obstacles ahead of him, though. First, it remains to be seen if his candidacy will be viewed as credible by voters, given what happened the last time he ran. </p>
<p>It’s also worth remembering the structural barriers that stand in the way of candidates from outside the major party system. Palmer’s party has flagged its intention to contest every lower house seat, but his candidates will be unlikely to garner 35% of the vote anywhere – the minimum prerequisite for winning a seat. </p>
<p>The UAP’s best hope is in the Senate, and especially in Queensland. But here, changes to the Senate voting system will also hurt the party’s chances. </p>
<p>Unlike the 2013 election, Palmer and his party will be contending with a quasi-optional preferential voting system thanks to <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-changes-to-the-senate-voting-system-are-being-proposed-55128">changes made by Malcolm Turnbull’s government</a> two years ago. There is no guarantee all the primary votes cast for the plethora of tickets running for Senate in each state will flow through as preferences to other right-of-centre candidates.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/face-the-facts-populism-is-here-to-stay-63771">Face the facts: populism is here to stay</a>
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<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/preference-whispering-too-successful-for-its-own-good-21302">“Preference-whispering” arrangements</a> that were so important to the PUP’s success in 2013 will not be in place for the next Senate election. Indeed, the next election will be a half-Senate contest, which will make it even harder for minor party candidates to succeed.</p>
<p>All of this serves to remind that, despite their larger-than-life personas, these minor-party populists like Palmer and Hanson win very small shares of the vote.</p>
<p>While he might try to plagiarise the American president, the truth is that Palmer is no Donald Trump. Trump was the official candidate of one of the two major parties that dominate the US political system and won nearly half of the popular vote in the 2016 election.</p>
<p>Palmer is a fringe player who will be depending on the interchange of preferences with other fringe players and the vagaries of the Senate voting system to be able to gain a foothold in the Australian parliament.</p>
<p>He will also need to hope the Australian electorate has either forgotten or forgiven him for his performance the last time he was in the parliament.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/98544/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nick Economou does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Clive Palmer believes he can recapture the magic that saw him elected to Parliament in 2013, but what his new party – and others on the right – need is more discipline.Nick Economou, Senior Lecturer, School of Political and Social Inquiry, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/603172016-06-17T00:16:56Z2016-06-17T00:16:56Z700,000 Palmer United Party votes up for grabs: who’ll win them this time?<p>The Palmer United Party (PUP) sprang onto Australia’s electoral landscape at the 2013 federal election, running candidates in all 150 lower house seats as well as for the Senate. Buoyed by a <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/big-spending-libs-left-labor-for-dead-on-the-ad-front/story-e6frfkp9-1226714750037">multi-million-dollar national advertising blitz</a> and Clive Palmer’s name recognition, the party persuaded <a href="http://results.aec.gov.au/17496/Website/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-17496-NAT.htm">709,035 Australians</a> – 5.5% of voters nationally – to vote 1 for PUP in the lower house. It did almost as well in the Senate, picking up <a href="http://results.aec.gov.au/17496/Website/SenateStateFirstPrefsByGroup-17496-NAT.htm">658,976, or 4.9%</a>, of the group first-preference votes.</p>
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<span class="caption">One of 4 million PUP DVDs dropped in letterboxes nationally in 2013, starring Palmer’s speeches and a Titanic II bonus feature.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.electionleaflets.org.au/full.php?q=1814#l3751">ElectionLeaflets.org.au</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>The party did particularly well in Palmer’s home state of Queensland, attracting an extraordinary <a href="http://results.aec.gov.au/17496/Website/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-17496-QLD.htm">11% share of first preferences</a> for the lower house, or 278,125 votes. It was a similar story in <a href="http://results.aec.gov.au/17496/Website/SenateStateFirstPrefsByGroup-17496-QLD.htm">Queensland’s Senate ballot</a>, gaining 258,944 or 9.9% of the group first-preference votes.</p>
<p>Capitalising on voter discontent with the major parties, PUP narrowly won one lower house seat, along three Senate spots: in Queensland, Tasmania and Western Australia. Almost overnight, it had become <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-palmer-united-party-came-out-barking-17979">a major force</a> as a balance-of-power party in the Senate. </p>
<p>But today, Palmer is about to <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-23/clive-palmer-rules-out-running-in-senate/7437220">depart politics</a> and PUP’s vote has collapsed, down to just <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/federal-election-2016/newspoll-one-in-four-voters-may-spurn-voting-for-major-parties/news-story/eda17567d65d613ffc36c77d63767f1b">1% in a June Newspoll</a>. The party’s weekend campaign launch is a smaller affair: <a href="http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2016/06/close-of-nominations-2016-federal-election.html">it is fielding</a> just 14 <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/sqld/">Senate candidates</a> nationally and one lower house candidate – <a href="http://www.townsvillebulletin.com.au/news/nine-candidates-line-up-to-contest-herbert-in-july-2-federal-election/news-story/1f8d7d63a035dd102405bba3bbd51820?nk=5ccf14ef1fcd83b6bfe4a2862a38a2fe-1465975016">Palmer’s nephew</a> – in Herbert, home to the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-14/clive-palmer-claiming-billion-damages-from-fti-consulting/7508108">Queensland Nickel refinery</a> debacle.</p>
<p>So who will all those PUP voters, who came from both sides of the political spectrum, support this time? Their choices will be particularly important in Queensland, where <a href="https://theconversation.com/state-of-the-states-19-reasons-why-turnbull-and-shorten-keep-flying-to-queensland-60046">19 lower house seats</a> are close enough to be called marginal, and where former rugby league player and <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-13/glenn-lazarus-quits-palmer-united-party/6312002">ex-PUP</a> Glenn Lazarus is up against a record Senate field – including a <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-24/pauline-hanson-a-realistic-chance-of-returning-to-canberra/7440944">rejuvenated Pauline Hanson</a>.</p>
<h2>How will PUP voters shape the next Senate?</h2>
<p>It’s extremely difficult to predict where the large Senate vote for PUP in Queensland will go. There are a record 122 candidates from 38 party groupings on the <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/federal-election-2016-record-field-for-queensland-senate-ballot-paper-20160610-gpgfgf.html">state’s Senate ballot paper</a> – up from 82 candidates last time – competing for 12 Senate seats. </p>
<p>They represent a huge range of interests, offering voters <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/federal-election-2016/newspoll-one-in-four-voters-may-spurn-voting-for-major-parties/news-story/eda17567d65d613ffc36c77d63767f1b">disaffected with the major parties</a> a smorgasbord of issues from which to choose. Interest groups range from the Australian Cyclists Party (in prized first place on the huge Queensland ballot paper) and the Arts Party, to the Veterans’ Party and the Australian Liberty Alliance.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.onenation.com.au/">Pauline Hanson’s One Nation</a> is listed 24th along the ballot paper, while the new Glenn Lazarus Team is listed 29th – sandwiched between the <a href="https://palmerunited.com/">Palmer United Party</a> (28) and another ex-PUP’s party, the <a href="http://lambienetwork.com.au/">Jacqui Lambie Network</a> (30).</p>
<p>Hanson and Lazarus are extremely well-known around Queensland, so both can be expected to harvest some PUP votes. Immigration, overseas workers and free trade deals have become important factors. The horrific Orlando massacre may garner extra support for Hanson’s anti-Islamic stance (as well as for high-profile ex-PUP senator <a href="http://senatorlambie.com.au/2015/11/islam-is-not-the-religion-of-peace/">Jacqui Lambie</a> in Tasmania).</p>
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<p>Many of these votes would be expected to eventually find their way back to the Coalition, but concern with the government’s workplace relations agenda may see some preferences go to Labor. The Greens vote was affected by PUP in Queensland last time, so some voters disillusioned with the major parties may also return there.</p>
<p>Outside Queensland, the party’s highest Senate votes were in the Northern Territory (7.1%), Tasmania (6.6%) and Western Australia (5%). The NT only has two Senate seats, so those are <a href="http://theconversation.com/state-of-the-states-how-local-politics-in-the-northern-territory-could-muddy-the-federal-vote-60047">likely to be split</a> between the Country Liberal Party and Labor – meaning no change there. According to <a href="http://www.theadvocate.com.au/story/3970390/lambie-set-hinch-too/">Sportsbet</a>, not one punter has bet against Senator Lambie being returned in Tasmania. </p>
<p>The last PUP standing for re-election, Dio Wang, is facing a tougher battle. Working in his favour is that he has more support in WA than many nationally might realise; the state’s Liberal treasurer Mike Nahan <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/federal-election-2016/federal-election-2016-wa-treasurer-backs-pup-senator-dio-wang/news-story/01e0ddb3ecb2c9c781e79de09fb4f919">even said</a> last month that he hoped the PUP senator would be re-elected. But as Tim Colebatch has explained for Inside Story, <a href="http://insidestory.org.au/senator-hinch-and-other-preference-winners">preferences will still be crucial</a> in this new Senate – which won’t help PUP.</p>
<p>As for the lower house, the LNP’s Ted O’Brien is expected to comfortably win Palmer’s Sunshine Coast seat of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/fair/">Fairfax</a>. Outside Queensland, PUP did best in the <a href="http://results.aec.gov.au/17496/Website/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-17496-NAT.htm">2013 lower house vote</a> in Tasmania (6.1% of the first preference votes), WA (5.3%), the NT (4.63%) and NSW (4.2%). Its lowest votes were in South Australia (3.8%), Victoria (3.6%) and the ACT (2.8%). </p>
<h2>How to make your Senate vote count</h2>
<p>In any <a href="https://theconversation.com/election-explainer-what-does-it-mean-that-were-having-a-double-dissolution-election-56671">double dissolution</a> election, a smaller percentage of first preferences is required to gain the last Senate position – and this will be exacerbated under the new Senate voting system. Nick Economou <a href="https://theconversation.com/aided-by-the-new-senate-rules-nick-xenophon-should-have-a-happy-election-night-59900">shows here how few votes</a> are needed in each state to elect senators in this election.</p>
<p>Under the new rules, group voting tickets have been abolished, so political parties will not be able to allocate the preferences of those who simply voted 1 above the line. Now it is up to the voter to allocate preferences. If you’re keen, you can <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/voting/how_to_vote/practice/practice-senate.htm">practise filling out a Senate form</a> with the new rules online.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">The Australian Electoral Commission’s video explaining the new rules.</span></figcaption>
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<p>If you want to vote above the line for one of the parties or groups, you should number at least six boxes in the order of your choice. Or, to vote below the line, you should indicate at least 12 preferences. </p>
<p>But it’s worth stressing that you can number as many additional boxes as you choose when voting either above the line (that is, more than six boxes) or below the line (more than 12).</p>
<p>Those who vote for micro parties may see their preferences exhaust if all the parties they have supported are eliminated. Savings provisions will allow votes to be counted if even only one box above the line is checked, increasing the number of exhausted votes further. These votes will not count – so the last Senate candidate elected in each state could have received 4% or less of first preference votes.</p>
<p>And that’s why Queensland’s Senate race is being so closely watched nationally. As ABC election analyst Antony Green and others have noted, Hanson won <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-24/pauline-hanson-a-realistic-chance-of-returning-to-canberra/7440944">more than 4%</a> in her 2004 individual tilt at the Senate – even without the extra name recognition she will get this time with her party’s name above the line on the ballot paper.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/60317/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bronwyn Stevens does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>One in 20 Australians voted for the Palmer United Party in 2013. Their votes will be crucial again – especially in Queensland, where ex-PUP senator Glenn Lazarus could be replaced by Pauline Hanson.Bronwyn Stevens, Lecturer in Politics, University of the Sunshine CoastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/598452016-05-23T12:27:51Z2016-05-23T12:27:51ZThe Liberals may have miscalculated Turnbull’s electoral appeal<p>Finally, Clive Palmer has formally put a full stop to his personal political career, announcing on Monday he won’t be running for the Senate.</p>
<p>Palmer United Party (PUP) will still field Senate candidates, including its sole senator, Dio Wang. But if he or any other PUP candidate fluked a Senate seat, it would surely be unlikely Palmer would have influence with them.</p>
<p>The bizarre Palmer experiment appears to be well and truly over. The former member for Fairfax spent a fortune to win a slice of national political power, and then spectacularly lost that power. He won’t be missed. The Palmer story has morphed into one about the financial havoc he has wrought.</p>
<p>But the PUP vote, especially in the vital state of Queensland where in 2013 the new party polled some 11% of the House of Representatives vote and nearly 10% in the Senate (winning a Senate seat), will be keenly sought. ABC electoral analyst Antony Green says in 2013 PUP garnered votes from Labor and from the Greens in Queensland but “there is not research on who the Palmer voters were” and on July 2 this vote “will be up for grabs”.</p>
<p>Where the vote will go now PUP is discredited is one of many uncertainties at the start of the campaign’s third week.</p>
<p>Saturday’s Fairfax Ipsos poll (51-49% in the Coalition’s favour) and Monday’s Newspoll (49-51% against the Coalition) show a neck-and-neck race in the broad polls. When they toppled Tony Abbott in September Liberal MPs probably expected they would be a good deal better placed now than represented by these figures.</p>
<p>A couple of things may be going on here.</p>
<p>Government strategists suggest the national polls mask a rather different back story. The Coalition is doing better in the marginal seats, they say, where its economic message is getting across well. It’s the marginals in which elections are won and lost and what’s happening there is of prime concern to the parties.</p>
<p>The Liberals may be “spinning” or telling the truth – it is hard to know. Public polling done in marginals is usually very hit and miss when tested against the later outcomes.</p>
<p>But worrying for the Coalition, based on Malcolm Turnbull’s tumbling personal ratings in recent months, is that the Liberals may have miscalculated what would be Turnbull’s electoral appeal when they installed him in September.</p>
<p>It wouldn’t be the first time that a party over-estimated what a leadership change would bring in terms of votes. Polling analyst John Stirton says “leaders tend to be more popular in exile than in office”, citing the Andrew Peacock/John Howard opposition experience through the 1980s.</p>
<p>In 1989 the Liberals dumped Howard for Peacock, looking for an electoral transformation. Peacock performed less well than they hoped and could not match Bob Hawke at the 1990 election.</p>
<p>In 2010 Labor had a panic attack, fuelled by frustration with Kevin Rudd’s style, and dumped him for Julia Gillard who, in part because she was undermined by Rudd, ended up in minority government after that year’s election.</p>
<p>And before that, in 2008, the Liberals had been persuaded by Turnbull’s high popularity ratings, so much better than those of then-opposition leader Brendan Nelson, only to see those figures fall after he became leader.</p>
<p>A number of factors can be identified as to why Turnbull currently is not fulfilling what his backers saw as his promise.</p>
<p>He’s had to, or has chosen to, compromise on the policy positions with which he was identified. He has lived with Tony Abbott’s “direct action” on climate and same-sex marriage plebiscite.</p>
<p>It has confused some voters who want to get a fix on him and what he stands for, and alienated others who were convinced they had that fix and now find he’s not just slid away but embraced some positions – such as a hard line on people on Nauru and Manus Island – that they thought he would eschew. </p>
<p>“I want the old Malcolm back,” lamented a questioner on the ABC’s Q&A on Monday night.</p>
<p>This is part of a wider phenomenon of disappointed expectations. People anticipated Turnbull would deliver a lot more. Some of the expectations arose just because he was Turnbull, with all the hype that brought. </p>
<p>In other cases, for example on tax reform, he raised the prospect of big things and then stepped back. A man whom some saw as rather extraordinary – in a good way – came to look dishearteningly ordinary.</p>
<p>Turnbull’s style, so attractive to aficionados, may also be less suited to a campaign in these times than the more down-to-earth approach of Bill Shorten. Turnbull often talks in grandiose terms; Shorten, with his mantras about education and health, may be closer to people’s immediate concerns. Shorten appears at home on the campaign trial; Turnbull, less so. The suburban shopping centres don’t look like Turnbull’s natural habitat.</p>
<p>And a campaign helps elevate an opposition leader, especially if he is performing competently.</p>
<p>So as Turnbull’s net approval has fallen and Shorten’s has risen, they have come to the point where they have a shared distinction – they are equally disapproved of. Each has a net satisfaction rating of minus 12.</p>
<p>Even though he may look the less comfortable campaigner, Turnbull retains a substantial advantage in this long race. He is defending a mountain of seats while Shorten has the considerably harder task of wresting them away. In addition he has a large, albeit eroding, margin as preferred prime minister.</p>
<p>And for Liberals who might be looking rather bleakly at those national polls, they can always contemplate where they’d be if it were Abbott confronting Shorten.</p>
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Finally, Clive Palmer has formally put a full stop to his personal political career, announcing on Monday he won’t be running for the Senate. Palmer United Party (PUP) will still field Senate candidates…Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/573572016-04-06T08:11:45Z2016-04-06T08:11:45ZPolitics podcast: Glenn Lazarus on the government’s industrial relations legislation<p>Senators will return to Canberra later this month with the expectation that they will give final consideration to the government’s industrial relations legislation – unless they decide to refuse to consider it. Glenn Lazarus, whose approval the government may need if the bills are to have any hope of passing, tells Michelle Grattan he will not be bullied or blackmailed into giving his support. </p>
<p>Lazarus says that when he asked Malcolm Turnbull to turn the Australian Building and Construction Commission into a national corruption watchdog for all industries, the prime minister gave him a blank look. </p>
<p>The former Palmer United Party (PUP) senator also says that he has become a better politician as a result of leaving PUP and that no ministers had visited his office before his decision to walk away from the party.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/57357/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Senators will return to Canberra later this month with the expectation that they will give final consideration to the government's industrial relations legislation.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/344412014-11-19T12:38:55Z2014-11-19T12:38:55ZAn unexpected win for consumers of financial advice comes out of PUP implosion<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/64977/original/image-20141119-31597-1d6ouq5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Senator Jacqui Lambie said she voted down the FoFA regulations to 'fix an injustice' that she helped create.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Alan Porritt</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australia’s financial services industry has been thrown into turmoil by the spectacular implosion of the Palmer United Party (PUP) and an independent stand by its supposed ally, Motoring Enthusiast Ricky Muir.</p>
<p>Wednesday night’s disallowance, by a 32-30 vote, of the government’s regulations that unwound Labor’s <a href="http://futureofadvice.treasury.gov.au/Content/Content.aspx?doc=home.htm">Future of Financial Advice</a> measures reinstates a range of protections for consumers.</p>
<p>But it also means many financial advice institutions don’t have systems in place to meet what they will now be supposed to do, and thus could be in breach of the law. They’d been confident these wouldn’t be needed, thanks to the government’s watering down of Labor’s phased-in measures.</p>
<p>So, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) <a href="http://www.asic.gov.au/about-asic/media-centre/find-a-media-release/2014-releases/14-307mr-disallowance-of-fofa-regulations/">has issued a statement</a> saying it will adopt a “practical and measured approach to administering the law as it now stands” after the Senate’s action.</p>
<p>It will take into account that many financial service licensees “will now need to make systems changes … in particular areas, including fee disclosure statements and remuneration arrangements”. ASIC’s “facilitative approach” will operate until July 1 next year.</p>
<p>To complicate things even further, there could be yet another regime of changes if the government accepts a crossbench offer of discussions for a compromise.</p>
<p>Finance Minister Mathias Cormann had a major victory mid-year when, helped by Malcolm Turnbull, he did a deal with Clive Palmer to head off a Labor move to disallow the regulations. Now Cormann has been dramatically trumped by Labor senator Sam Dastyari and independent Nick Xenophon.</p>
<p>At a Wednesday morning news conference with Dastyari, PUP rebel Jacqui Lambie, Muir, the Greens’ Peter Whish-Wilson and independent John Madigan, Xenophon said they had formed a “coalition of common sense”.</p>
<p>Cormann had been out-manoeuvred. When late Tuesday he heard about the new disallowance move he tried desperately to get to Muir.</p>
<p>But Muir was off the air – at China Plate, a restaurant in the Canberra suburb of Kingston, dining with Dastyari, Xenophon and some staffers. The conversation wasn’t about the regulations – the deal was already in the bag. Cormann was not able to reach Muir until Wednesday morning.</p>
<p>With the numbers in hand, Cormann’s opponents were determined to act as quickly as possible. The sitting days left for disallowance ran out on November 27, but they were not going to allow the opportunity for any slippage.</p>
<p>Lambie’s <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/clive-palmer-accuses-jacqui-lambie-of-lying-and-plotting-to-set-up-her-own-political-party-20141119-11q0iv.html">row with Palmer</a> and PUP had played to their cause and Muir, who used to work for a sawmill, was influenced by last week’s evidence to a Senate inquiry about how people lost their savings in the Timbercorp managed investment scheme, which involved the ANZ.</p>
<p>For Dastyari, former secretary of the NSW ALP, this is a big coup. Dastyari went to Tasmania to lobby Lambie, who said on Wednesday she was now voting “to fix an injustice that I helped create just a few months ago”. She said she wouldn’t allow the Liberal Party and its supporters “to wind back consumer protection at a time when the financial advice industry has been shown to act in a scandalous manner”.</p>
<p>The government is humiliated but won’t get much sympathy from the public.</p>
<p>In the name of cutting red tape and simplifying the rules for the financial services industry, it reduced consumer protections and delivered in particular to the banks.</p>
<p>The evidence of past bad behaviour by the banks and the victims it claimed has continued to mount, demonstrating the need for people to be protected.</p>
<p>Xenophon said the government’s regulations were “unambiguously bad for consumers”.</p>
<p>Reverting to the Labor law toughens the requirement for financial advisers to work in the client’s best interest; unequivocally bans all forms of conflicted remuneration; requires clients to “opt in” to their advisers every two years; and imposes an obligation on advisers to give clients annual fee-disclosure statements.</p>
<p>Xenophon has called on the government for talks to now work out sensible compromise measures. “The ball’s in the government’s court,” he said after the vote.</p>
<p>The FoFA fiasco is the first blowback for the government of the Lambie-Palmer rift.</p>
<p>Palmer and Lambie appear irreconcilable. He announced on Wednesday morning that PUP had sacked her as deputy PUP leader in the Senate and suspended her from party meetings. She accused him of trying to bully her. He called her a liar in a statement on Wednesday night, confirmed she hadn’t spoken to him for a month and said she was planning to set up an alternate political party.</p>
<p>But he also said that “Senator Lambie obviously believes in the Palmer United Party as she is still a member”, adding provocatively “we hope she gets the appropriate assistance to get back on track”.</p>
<p>The government has had its nightmares trying to deal with Palmer, unable to win PUP support for a number of key measures, including the deregulation of university fees and the Medicare co-payment. But it has also cut some deals with him including on its direct action plan, which was vital to give it a climate change policy after the repeal of the carbon tax.</p>
<p>With Lambie now effectively divorced from Palmer and also declaring she’ll vote against all government legislation because of her stand on military pay, and Muir showing he can go his own way, the Senate becomes even more unpredictable. </p>
<p><strong>Listen to our <a href="http://michellegrattan.podbean.com/e/victorian-election-special/">Victorian election podcast, here</a>.</strong></p>
<iframe id="audio_iframe" src="https://www.podbean.com/media/player/audio/postId/5378364?url=http%3A%2F%2Fmichellegrattan.podbean.com%2Fe%2Fvictorian-election-special%2F" data-link="http://www.podbean.com/media/player/audio/postId/5378364?url=http%3A%2F%2Fmichellegrattan.podbean.com%2Fe%2Fvictorian-election-special%2F" height="100" width="100%" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" data-name="pb-iframe-player"></iframe><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/34441/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Australia’s financial services industry has been thrown into turmoil by the spectacular implosion of the Palmer United Party (PUP) and an independent stand by its supposed ally, Motoring Enthusiast Ricky…Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/310222014-08-28T20:49:02Z2014-08-28T20:49:02ZGrattan on Friday: Attacking the RET will open another tough battlefront for Abbott<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/57639/original/pd5hhmsr-1409234692.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">If the Abbott government goes down the anti-RET path, it will be heavily driven by ideology.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Lukas Coch</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Tony Abbott has got a heap of unwanted publicity this week as a result of his response to cantankerous Liberal senator Ian Macdonald, who upbraided him for being late to Tuesday’s Coalition parties’ meeting.</p>
<p>As a putdown of Macdonald, an impatient Abbott said he’d had a Monday night fundraiser in Melbourne that was followed next morning by a visit to the Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre to bring the trip within official entitlements.</p>
<p>Grafting official and party work together is common enough but when the story was leaked it looked bad.</p>
<p>Beyond the cosmetics, however, the incident highlights something quite notable. A very busy prime minister, with a cabinet meeting in Canberra on Monday and parliament resuming after the winter break on Tuesday, was willing to fly to Melbourne for dinner to raise money for his party.</p>
<p>Such dinners in search of dollars are happening all the time. Who is at them, what is said, what if any representations are made, are not documented. This is the secret subculture of politics that we know little about.</p>
<p>Politicians are naturally sensitive about any suggestion that their fund-raising soirees lay them open to influence. And it would be quite wrong to think decision-makers necessarily do what donors would like – indeed, sometimes the opposite is true. But it would also be quite naïve to think business interests (or unions, with Labor governments) don’t hope donations will get them a hearing or better.</p>
<p>The truth is that without transparency about who is getting into politicians’ ears on such private occasions, it is impossible to know if and when influence is wielded.</p>
<p>We do know, however, those who donate (above a threshold) to the parties. So for example when an issue such as the future of the renewable energy target (RET) comes up, we can observe that companies and individual business figures with fossil fuel interests contributed a total of more than A$900,000 to the federal Liberal party over the four years from 2009-10 to 2012-13.</p>
<p>The government on Thursday released a report from its review, headed by business figure Dick Warburton, that recommends two options for the future of the large scale RET.</p>
<p>One is closing down the scheme to new entrants (an option the Prime Minister reportedly asked be included).</p>
<p>The second is winding back the target (of sourcing 20% of electricity from renewables by 2020) from the 26% to which it is headed, by a formula that the review claims would achieve a “real” 20% on current demand projections. The report also recommends either closing immediately the small scale renewable energy scheme, which principally involves roof top solar, or accelerating its phase out.</p>
<p>The review found the RET was putting downward pressure on wholesale electricity prices and over time would have relatively little impact on household bills. But it “leads to a transfer of wealth among participants in the electricity market” (that is, from the fossil fuel sector to the renewable sector).</p>
<p>The RET had delivered a modest level of emissions reductions, the review said, but it was a “high cost” way of doing that because it did not directly target emissions and only focused on electricity generation.</p>
<p>Hacking into RET would be an economic favour for generators who rely on fossil fuel, but disastrous for what has been a growing renewables industry. The RET is popular in the community, where people increasingly have solar panels and the like.</p>
<p>The Coalition at the election committed to the 20% target – if it cut back the scheme it would claim it wasn’t breaking a promise - though it did say it would have a review.</p>
<p>If the government goes down the anti-RET path, it will be heavily driven by ideology (remember Joe Hockey’s strange outburst against the wind farming he saw while driving to Canberra) and the interests of one part of the energy industry.</p>
<p>Abbott has a particularly strong view about coal. Speaking in Texas this year he said: “We don’t believe in ostracising any particular fuel … For many decades at least, coal will continue to fuel human progress as an affordable energy source for wealthy and developing countries alike.”</p>
<p>But politically, it makes little sense for the government to open up a fresh front of argument, especially given ministers are divided (with Environment Minister Greg Hunt being pro-renewables), and when the government may not be able to deliver a new policy anyway. Clive Palmer says PUP would not vote for change before the next election.</p>
<p>It would be better to limit the battles. This first week of the spring session has brought no noticeable achievements on budget items although talks have been underway and some in the government hint at progress that is yet to result in deals. Whether this is just cracking hardy remains to be seen. Given that it’s a matter of trying to negotiate with Palmer, no one could be sure how it will end, but it doesn’t look promising at the moment.</p>
<p>Palmer has his own problems, with speculation about trouble among the PUPs – it was claimed in one report that Jacqui Lambie was unhappy that Glenn Lazarus is PUP leader in the Senate, a position she thought she should have. This was hosed down on Thursday by some much-photographed kissing, but the possibility of disunity remains a challenge for Palmer and an opportunity for the government.</p>
<p>While on the outstanding budget items the outlook stayed bleak – although Treasurer Joe Hockey did reasonably in batting back a concerted Labor parliamentary attack on him – the elevation of the national security issue is playing for the Coalition.</p>
<p>With all eyes on Barack Obama’s next move, Abbott on Thursday told Parliament that if Australia were asked for military assistance in the fight against the Islamic State “there would be the standard approvals process, which would involve cabinet decision making, and consultation with the opposition.</p>
<p>"Should we be asked, we would want to look at any request in the light of achievable objectives, a clear role for Australian forces, a full risk assessment, and an overall humanitarian objective,” he said.</p>
<p>No-one doubts what answer would be given.</p>
<p>Bill Shorten is sticking close to Abbott, saying the Islamic State was a barbarous organisation and “we regard them as a threat”. He bawled out a Labor senator who suggested the government was scaremongering as a distraction from the budget, and told a news conference: “There will not be a debate in this nation in terms of political point scoring from either Liberal or Labor about the importance of tackling this threat.”</p>
<p>Abbott said there were “obviously discussions going on between the United States and its friends and allies about what more can be done” but “Australia has not been officially asked for military assistance”.</p>
<p>The way these things happen in diplomacy is that the request follows the acceptance. </p>
<p>When all that occurs – as is expected – it will mean the Abbott government, which has already seen some improvement in the polls since national security entered the debate, will go into its second year in a rather different position, though just how different is not clear.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/31022/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Tony Abbott has got a heap of unwanted publicity this week as a result of his response to cantankerous Liberal senator Ian Macdonald, who upbraided him for being late to Tuesday’s Coalition parties’ meeting…Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/291402014-07-14T20:12:14Z2014-07-14T20:12:14ZThe new Senate looms as a disaster for tax reform<p>It’s unlikely “The Political Sayings of Malcolm Fraser” is a well-thumbed volume in Tony Abbott’s library. Yet this week, in the wake of the Senate throwing his government’s budget plans into disarray, as well as the repeal of the carbon tax and financial planning industry reforms, you’d have to think one of Malcolm Fraser’s sayings might have come to mind: “Life wasn’t meant to be easy.” </p>
<p>Woefully under-prepared in their understanding of the stances that would be taken by the new senators, and in their planning for how the first week of the new Senate might play out, Prime Minister Abbott and his senior ministers were then forced to accept whatever amendments came their way, in a desperate attempt to preserve an impression of being in charge. </p>
<p>Colour and drama may be fun. But it needs to be said that what happened in the Senate last week does not bode well for economic policy making in Australia.</p>
<h2>Populism rules</h2>
<p>Let’s extrapolate from the voting positions taken by the new Senators. It seems two new Senators, David Leyonhjelm and Bob Day, will oppose tax increases and are not likely to favour extra government spending initiatives. And we have the three PUP Senators plus Ricky Muir whose stance will primarily be populist, also opposing tax increases but probably equally unlikely to want to reduce spending. If these voting positions were to become critical in determining the future of government tax and spending in Australia, it would be a major problem. </p>
<p>That Australia’s fiscal position needs attention has now been widely understood for some time. The attention that is required is to reduce and ultimately remove the structural budget deficit that currently exists. Commentators differ over the severity of this problem, and about the time frame in which the problem must be dealt with, but few disagree that it needs fixing.</p>
<p>Fixing the deficit gap in a way that takes us back to the past, as John Edwards has demonstrated in his recent book “Beyond the Boom”, would involve using higher taxes to make up about 4/5 of the gap and lower spending for 1/5 of the gap. There’s no suggestion we must go back to the size of tax and spending in the past. Nor, however, is there any apparent imperative to change from that past balance. Public support for initiatives such as the National Disability Scheme, and the backlash against cuts to services and income support payments in the 2014-15 Budget, suggest much of the population thinks the past balance is about right.</p>
<h2>Getting tax back on the table</h2>
<p>Here, then, is the problem with the new Senate. Tax increases seem to be the main way in which budget deficit gap can be removed, yet the balance of power Senators are opposed to tax increases. Moreover, where opposition to tax increases is added to an unwillingness to cut existing programs, the task of reform is going to be made even more difficult.</p>
<p>Perhaps though this is all too much supposition based on one week’s events. Hopefully the new senators will learn that more is required than piecemeal policy-making. It is not enough just to say whether you like or don’t like each individual policy. Decision making in the national interest also requires preferences about individual policies to be disciplined by a recognition that the whole set of policies must be feasible and sustainable.</p>
<p>If that doesn’t happen, it may be up to the Labor Party to take up the slack. It might only be through a combination of Coalition and Labor senators that necessary budget reform can occur. </p>
<p>Scope for Labor support is likely to take some rejigging of Coalition policy – a move away from policies based on notions of undoing the age of entitlement towards policies that take a fairer approach to restoring budget balance such as removing tax superannuation benefits for high income earners or ending negative gearing. The Labor Party might then have to decide between enjoying the Coalition’s discomfort and giving Australia a sound fiscal framework. </p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/29140/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jeff Borland does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It’s unlikely “The Political Sayings of Malcolm Fraser” is a well-thumbed volume in Tony Abbott’s library. Yet this week, in the wake of the Senate throwing his government’s budget plans into disarray…Jeff Borland, Professor of Economics , The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.