tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/reachtel-55819/articlesReachTEL – The Conversation2018-12-18T04:30:06Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1089072018-12-18T04:30:06Z2018-12-18T04:30:06ZPoll wrap: Labor widens lead in Ipsos; US Democrats gained 40 House seats at midterms<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/251183/original/file-20181218-27764-7ctpe0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">As the year come to an end, all the polls are giving a significant two-party preferred lead to the federal Labor Party.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Lukas Coch</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>This week’s <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-au/voters-divided-labors-tax-proposals">Fairfax Ipsos</a> poll, conducted December 12-15 from a sample of 1,200, gave Labor a 54-46 lead, a two-point gain for Labor since November. Primary votes were 37% Labor (up three), 36% Coalition (down one), 13% Greens (steady) and 6% One Nation (up one). As usual in Ipsos, the Greens are too high.</p>
<p>Respondent-allocated preferences were also 54-46 to Labor. While Malcolm Turnbull was PM, respondent preferences skewed to the Coalition relative to preferences derived from using 2016 election preference flows. However, Ipsos’ four polls since Scott Morrison became PM have shown no difference on average between respondent and previous election methods.</p>
<p>47% approved of Morrison (down one), and 39% disapproved (up three), for a net approval of +8. Bill Shorten’s net approval was down two points to -9. Morrison led by 46-37 as better PM (47-35 in November). Ipsos gives incumbent PMs higher ratings than Newspoll.</p>
<p>By 44-43, voters opposed Labor’s proposed changes that would restrict negative gearing tax deductions. By 48-43, voters opposed Labor’s proposal to halve the concession on capital gains tax. These questions highlight the potential for a Coalition scare campaign based on Labor’s proposed changes.</p>
<p>Four weeks ago, Ipsos and Essential both gave Labor just a 52-48 lead. The next week, Newspoll gave Labor a 55-45 lead, and now Ipsos is more in line with Newspoll.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/poll-wrap-labors-worst-polls-since-turnbull-chaos-likely-in-victorian-upper-house-107176">Poll wrap: Labor's worst polls since Turnbull; chaos likely in Victorian upper house</a>
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<h2>Essential: 53-47 to Labor</h2>
<p>This week’s <a href="https://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Essential-Report-181218.pdf">Essential poll</a>, conducted December 13-16 from a sample of 1,026, gave Labor a 53-47 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since last fortnight. Primary votes were 37% Coalition (down one), 36% Labor (down three), 11% Greens (up one) and 7% One Nation (up one).</p>
<p>Since Morrison became PM, Essential has been consistently better for the Coalition than Newspoll. Last week’s Newspoll gave Labor a 41-35 primary vote lead, while Essential gives the Coalition a 37-36 primary lead.</p>
<p>A net +6 thought 2018 had been good for the Australian economy, but a net zero thought it had been good for their personal financial situation. Australian politics scored a net -50 and the Australian government a net -41. In voters’ predictions about next year, their personal financial situation was at a net +13 and the Australian economy at a net +2.</p>
<p>Since September, Morrison’s attribute scores have declined in positive attributes and gone up in negative attributes, with the largest change a seven-point increase in “erratic”. Morrison leads Shorten on most positive attributes and trails him on most negative ones, but differences are under eight points. An exception is that Morrison leads Shorten by four on being “out of touch”.</p>
<h2>ReachTEL seat polls: huge swing to Labor in Kooyong, little swing in Boothby</h2>
<p>ReachTEL has recently conducted federal seat polls of Kooyong in Victoria and Boothby in South Australia. In <a href="https://twitter.com/GhostWhoVotes/status/1074247611610058754">Kooyong</a>, held by Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, Labor led by 52-48, a 15-point swing to Labor since the 2016 election. In <a href="https://twitter.com/GhostWhoVotes/status/1073741759350362112">Boothby</a>, the Liberals led by 51-49, a two-point swing to Labor. </p>
<p>Seat polls are unreliable, but the Victorian state election had large swings to Labor in blue-ribbon Liberal seats in inner Melbourne. Kooyong and Higgins are located in the same territory. As I wrote <a href="https://theconversation.com/victorian-upper-house-greatly-distorted-by-group-voting-tickets-federal-labor-still-dominant-in-newspoll-108488">last week</a>, ReachTEL also had a massive swing to Labor in Higgins.</p>
<h2>Victorian election statewide two party vote: 57.6-42.4 to Labor</h2>
<p>At the November 24 Victorian state election, the Liberals did not contest <a href="https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/Results/State2018/RichmondDistrict.html">Richmond</a>. The electoral commission has conducted a two party Labor vs Coalition count in all seats except Richmond. According to analyst Kevin Bonham, Labor’s share of the two party vote ranges from 57.4% to 57.9% depending on how Richmond is treated.</p>
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<p>The measure I prefer is to assign Richmond the same swing as the rest of the state, giving a two party result of 57.6-42.4 to Labor, a 5.6% swing to Labor since the 2014 election. That is only 0.2% less for Labor than at their <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_Victorian_state_election">2002 landslide</a> under Steve Bracks. </p>
<p>Labor won 55 of the 88 lower house seats, seven fewer than in <a href="https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/Results/state2002resultsummary.html">2002</a>. This was mainly because the Greens won three seats where Labor won the two party vote, and so did independent Russell Northe in <a href="https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/Results/State2018/MorwellDistrict.html">Morwell</a>.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/historical-fall-of-liberal-seats-in-victoria-micros-likely-to-win-ten-seats-in-upper-house-labor-leads-in-nsw-108047">Historical fall of Liberal seats in Victoria; micros likely to win ten seats in upper house; Labor leads in NSW</a>
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<p>In the upper house, the Greens won just one of 40 seats despite winning 9.3% of the vote. <a href="http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2018/12/group-ticket-voting-wrecks-victorian.html">Bonham</a> says the Greens were disadvantaged by being too big for micro parties to benefit from swapping preferences with them. However, they were also too small to win seats on raw quotas, as the major parties do.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/victorian-upper-house-greatly-distorted-by-group-voting-tickets-federal-labor-still-dominant-in-newspoll-108488">Victorian upper house greatly distorted by group voting tickets; federal Labor still dominant in Newspoll</a>
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<p>While the Greens were the biggest victims of the group voting ticket system, they almost cost Fiona Patten her seat. In North Metro, Green Samantha Ratnam made quota before Socialist preferences were distributed, allowing Patten to win. </p>
<p>According to <a href="http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2018/12/victorian-legislative-council-2018.html">Bonham</a>, had Ratnam been under quota before Socialist preferences, she would have gone well over quota on their preferences, but her surplus would have gone mainly to Derryn Hinch Justice, and that party would have won the final North Metro seat instead of Patten.</p>
<h2>Democrats gained 40 House seats at US midterms</h2>
<p>All 435 US House seats are up for election every two years. At the November 6 US midterm elections, Democrats <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-house-elections.html">won the House</a> by a 235-199 seat margin, with one seat undecided due to a dispute over alleged fraud by Republican campaigners in <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-score/2018/12/12/drumbeat-for-new-nc-09-election-continues-after-more-allegations-of-election-misconduct-453074">North Carolina’s ninth district</a>. Since the pre-election Congress, this is a 40-seat gain for Democrats. Since the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections">2016 House results</a>, it is a 41-seat gain.</p>
<p>According to Cook Political Report analyst <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WxDaxD5az6kdOjJncmGph37z0BPNhV1fNAH_g7IkpC0/htmlview?sle=true#gid=0">Dave Wasserman</a>, Democrats won the overall House popular vote by 8.6%. In 2016, Republicans won the House popular vote by 1.1%, and Donald Trump won the presidency despite losing to Hillary Clinton by 2.1% in the national popular vote.</p>
<p>Democrats’ gains mainly occurred in suburbs, where there was a high level of educational attainment. Republicans held up much better in rural America. While Democrats will have 54% of the new House, their seats will represent just 20% of US land area.</p>
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<p>CNN analyst <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2018/12/06/politics/latest-house-vote-blue-wave/index.html">Harry Enten</a> says this was Democrats’ largest seat gain in a House election since 1974, and the best performance in popular votes by a pre-election minority House party since records began in 1942. Although <a href="http://www.electproject.org/2018g">turnout was low</a> by Australian standards at 50.3%, this was the highest turnout at a US midterm election in the last 100 years.</p>
<p>Republicans <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-senate-elections.html">held the Senate</a> by a 53-47 margin, a two-seat gain for Republicans since the last Congress. However, the 33 regular Senate races were last contested in 2012, when Democrats had a great year. Democrats lost North Dakota, Indiana, Missouri and Florida, but gained Nevada and Arizona. They won the 33 regular elections by 23-10. Including byelections in Minnesota and Mississippi, Democrats won the 35 Senate races by 24-11.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/poll-wrap-coalition-morrison-slip-further-in-newspoll-us-democrats-gain-in-late-counting-106766">Poll wrap: Coalition, Morrison slip further in Newspoll; US Democrats gain in late counting</a>
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<p>The new US Congress will be sworn in on January 3. Democrat House leader Nancy Pelosi is very likely to be elected Speaker of the new House.</p>
<p>In November 2020, the US presidency and all of the House are up. Of the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_Senate_elections">34 Senate seats</a> that will be up for election, 22 are Republican-held and just 12 Democrat-held. This will be a big opportunity for Democrats to take back the Senate.</p>
<h2>Theresa May wins Conservative confidence vote, 200-117</h2>
<p>To trigger a Conservative motion of confidence in the leader, 15% (48 members in this case) of Conservative MPs must submit letters expressing no-confidence in the leader. This threshold was reached on December 12, but UK Prime Minister Theresa May won a confidence vote of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Conservative_Party_(UK)_leadership_election#12_December_confidence_vote">all Conservative MPs</a> by a 200-117 margin. May now cannot be challenged for a year.</p>
<p>If anywhere near 117 Conservatives reject May’s Brexit deal, it is very difficult to see it passing the House of Commons. The confidence vote in May does not make a “no deal” Brexit less likely. As I wrote on my <a href="http://adrianbeaumont.net/uks-brexit-debacle-could-lead-to-labour-landslide-greens-not-far-right-surge-in-germany/">personal website</a>, unless the Commons acts in some way, Britain will crash out of the European Union on March 29, 2019.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/108907/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The latest Fairfax-Ipsos and Essential polls give a strong lead to Labor, with some interesting – and variable - detail on the attributes voters see in the leaders of the two major parties.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1044782018-10-05T08:40:50Z2018-10-05T08:40:50ZPoll wrap: Phelps slumps to third in Wentworth; Trump’s ratings up after fight over Kavanaugh<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/239453/original/file-20181005-72110-1qdrmpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Independent Kerryn Phelps has slumped in the polls ahead of the Wentworth byelection, which was likely caused by changing her position on preferences.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Mick Tsikas</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Wentworth byelection will be held on October 20. A <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/04/wentworth-byelection-liberal-vote-collapses-as-poll-shows-safe-seat-now-a-close-contest">ReachTEL poll</a> for independent Licia Heath’s campaign, conducted September 27 from a sample of 727, gave the Liberals’ Dave Sharma 40.6% of the primary vote, Labor’s Tim Murray 19.5%, independent Kerryn Phelps 16.9%, Heath 9.4%, the Greens 6.2%, all Others 1.8% and 5.6% were undecided.</p>
<p>According to <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/10/05/further-friday-free-for-all/">The Poll Bludger</a>, if undecided voters were excluded, primary votes would be 43.0% Sharma, 20.7% Murray, 17.9% Phelps, 10.0% Heath and 6.6% Greens. Compared to a September 17 ReachTEL poll for GetUp!, which you can read about on my <a href="http://adrianbeaumont.net/wentworth-reachtel-poll-and-left-vs-far-right-contest-in-brazil/">personal website</a>, primary vote changes were Sharma up 3.7%, Murray up 3.3%, Phelps down 4.8%, Heath up 5.6% and Greens down 6.0%. Phelps fell from second behind Sharma to third behind Murray and Sharma.</p>
<p>Between the two ReachTEL polls, Phelps announced on September 21 that she would recommend preferences to the Liberals ahead of Labor, backflipping on her previous position of putting the Liberals last. It is likely this caused her slump. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/poll-wrap-labor-drops-in-newspoll-but-still-has-large-lead-nsw-reachtel-poll-tied-50-50-103597">Poll wrap: Labor drops in Newspoll but still has large lead; NSW ReachTEL poll tied 50-50</a>
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<p>While more likely/less likely to vote a certain way questions always overstate the impact of an issue, it is nevertheless bad for Phelps that 50% of her own voters said they were less likely to vote for her as a result of the preference decision.</p>
<p>This ReachTEL poll was released by the Heath campaign as it showed her gaining ground. Heath appears to have gained from the Greens, and the endorsement of Sydney <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/lord-mayor-clover-moore-backs-independent-licia-heath-for-wentworth-20180927-p506e7.html">Mayor Clover Moore</a> could further benefit her.</p>
<p>Despite the primary vote gain for Sharma, he led Murray by just 51-49 on a two candidate basis, a one-point gain for Murray since the September 17 ReachTEL. The Poll Bludger estimated Murray would need over three-quarters of all independent and minor party preferences to come this close to Sharma.</p>
<p>At the 2016 election, Malcolm Turnbull won 62.3% of the primary vote in <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/20499/website/HouseDivisionPage-20499-152.htm">Wentworth</a>. While the Liberals’ primary vote in this poll is about 19% below Turnbull, it is recovering to a winning position.</p>
<h2>Trump, Republicans gain in fight over Kavanaugh Supreme Court confirmation</h2>
<p>On July 9, Trump nominated hard-right judge <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brett_Kavanaugh_Supreme_Court_nomination">Brett Kavanaugh</a> to replace the retiring centre-right judge Anthony Kennedy. The right currently has a 5-4 Supreme Court majority, but Kennedy and John Roberts have occasionally voted with the left. If Kavanaugh is confirmed by the Senate, it will give the right a clearer Supreme Court majority. Supreme Court judges are lifetime appointments.</p>
<p>Although Kavanaugh is a polarising figure, he looked very likely to be confirmed by the narrow 51-49 Republican majority Senate until recent sexual assault allegations occurred. Since September 16, three women have publicly accused Kavanaugh of sexual assault when he was a high school or university student.</p>
<p>On September 27, both Kavanaugh and his first accuser, Christine Blasey Ford, testified before the Senate Judiciary Committee. On September 28, without calling additional accusers, the Committee favourably reported Kavanaugh by an 11-10 majority, with all 11 Republicans – all men – voting in favour. </p>
<p>However, after pressure from two Republican senators, the full Senate confirmation vote was delayed for a week to allow an FBI investigation. The Senate received the FBI’s findings on Thursday, and the investigation did not corroborate Ford. <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-05/senate-panel-gets-fbi-report-on-kavanaugh-misconduct-accusations/10340030">Democrats have labelled the report</a> a “whitewash”, but it appears to have satisfied the doubting Republican senators, and Kavanaugh is very likely to be confirmed.</p>
<p>Since the sexual assault allegations against Kavanaugh began, Trump’s ratings in the <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/">FiveThirtyEight poll aggregate</a> have recovered to about a 42% approval rating, from 40% in mid-September. Democrats’ position in the <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=midterms-header">race for Congress</a> has deteriorated to a 7.7 point lead, down from 9.1 points in mid-September.</p>
<p>Midterm elections for all of the US House and 35 of the 100 Senators will be held on November 6. Owing to natural clustering of Democratic votes and Republican gerrymandering, Democrats probably need to win the House popular vote by six to seven points to take control.</p>
<p>While the House map is difficult for Democrats, the Senate is far worse. Democrats are defending 26 Senate seats and Republicans just nine, Five of the states Democrats are defending voted for Trump in 2016 by at least 18 points. Two polls this week in one of those big Trump states, North Dakota, gave Republicans double digit leads over the Democratic incumbent.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/polls-update-trumps-ratings-held-up-by-us-economy-australian-polls-steady-101175">Polls update: Trump’s ratings held up by US economy; Australian polls steady</a>
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<p>The <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/?ex_cid=midterms-header">FiveThirtyEight forecast</a> models give Democrats a 74% chance of gaining control of the House, but just a 22% chance in the Senate.</p>
<p>Republican gains in the polls are likely due to polarisation over Kavanaugh. In a recent <a href="https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2574">Quinnipiac University national poll</a>, voters did not think Kavanaugh should be confirmed – by a net six-point margin – but Trump’s handling of Kavanaugh was at -7 net approval. <a href="https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2575">Democrats led Republicans</a> by seven points, and Trump’s overall net approval was -12. Kavanaugh was more unpopular than in the previous Quinnipiac poll, but Trump and Republicans were more popular.</p>
<p>The hope for Democrats is that once the Kavanaugh issue is resolved, they can refocus attention on issues such as healthcare and the Robert Mueller <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Counsel_investigation_(2017%E2%80%93present)">investigation</a> into Trump’s ties with Russia. However, the strong US economy assists Trump and the Republicans.</p>
<h2>In brief: contest between left and far right in Brazil, conservative breakthrough win in Quebec, Canada</h2>
<p>The Brazil presidential election will be held in two rounds, on October 7 and 28. If no candidate wins over 50% in the October 7 first round, the top two proceed to a runoff.</p>
<p>The left-wing Workers’ Party has won the last four presidential elections from 2002 to 2014, but incumbent <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brazilian_general_election,_2018">President Dilma Rousseff</a> was impeached in August 2016, and replaced by conservative Vice President Michel Temer.</p>
<p>Workers’ Party candidate Fernando Haddad and far-right candidate Jair Bolsonaro are virtually certain to advance to the runoff. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jair_Bolsonaro">Bolsonaro has made sympathetic</a> comments about Brazil’s 1964-85 military dictatorship. Runoff polling shows a close contest.</p>
<p>In the Canadian province of Quebec, a conservative party won an election for the first time since 1966.</p>
<p>You can read more about the Brazil and Quebec elections at my <a href="http://adrianbeaumont.net/wentworth-reachtel-poll-and-left-vs-far-right-contest-in-brazil/">personal website</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/104478/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A change of heart on preferences appears to have cost the high-profile independent in Wentworth, while the controversy around Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation has been of benefit to Donald Trump.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1000132018-07-28T22:02:35Z2018-07-28T22:02:35ZSuper Saturday: Labor holds Braddon and easily wins Longman, while Sharkie thumps Downer in Mayo<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/229695/original/file-20180728-106499-1nsf1ky.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Labor's strong showing in its seats and the Liberals' generally poor performance will be a huge fillip to Bill Shorten.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Dan Peled</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Federal byelections were <a href="https://theconversation.com/crucial-super-saturday-labor-victories-a-major-fillip-for-shorten-100734">held in five seats</a> on Saturday, four Labor-held and one held by the Centre Alliance’s Rebekha Sharkie. Labor and Sharkie retained all of their seats. I will go through these seats starting with the closest.</p>
<p>In the Tasmanian seat of <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-22692-193.htm">Braddon</a>, Labor’s Justine Keay defeated the Liberals’ Brett Whiteley by a 52.7-47.3 margin, a 0.5% swing to Labor since the 2016 election. Primary votes were 38.9% Liberal (down 2.7%), 37.0% Labor (down 3.0%), 11.0% for independent Craig Garland, 4.8% for the Shooters and 4.0% for the Greens (down 2.8%).</p>
<p>In the Queensland seat of <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-22694-302.htm">Longman</a>, Labor’s Susan Lamb defeated the LNP’s Trevor Ruthenberg by an emphatic 55.4-44.6 margin, a 4.6% swing to Labor. Primary votes were 40.7% Labor (up 5.3%), 28.6% LNP (down a large 10.4%), 16.1% One Nation (up 6.7%) and 5.0% Greens (up 0.6%). The LNP’s drop was 3.7% greater than One Nation’s gain.</p>
<p>In the South Australian seat of <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-22695-188.htm">Mayo</a>, Sharkie defeated the Liberals’ Georgina Downer by a massive 58.6-41.4 margin, a 3.6% swing to Sharkie. Primary votes were 45.2% Sharkie (up 10.3%), 36.3% Liberal (down 1.5%), 9.4% Greens (up 1.4%) and 6.0% Labor (down 7.6%). Sharkie is a popular incumbent, while Downer’s candidacy had problems.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/poll-wrap-coalitions-record-newspoll-losing-streak-and-rebekha-sharkie-has-large-lead-in-mayo-98304">Poll wrap: Coalition's record Newspoll losing streak, and Rebekha Sharkie has large lead in Mayo</a>
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<p>With the Liberals not contesting, the Western Australian seats of <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-22696-245.htm">Perth</a> and <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-22693-240.htm">Fremantle</a> were easily retained by Labor with over 62% of the two-party vote against the Greens. Perth was the only Super Saturday byelection to be caused by the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-02/member-for-perth-tim-hammond-resigns-from-politics/9718606">resignation of the sitting</a> member; in the other four byelections, the sitting member successfully recontested after resigning due to the citizenship fiasco.</p>
<p>Postal votes have not yet been counted in any of the byelections, and they are likely to help the Liberals. In particular, the small swing to Labor in Braddon will probably become a small Liberal swing when postals are added.</p>
<p>Seat polls slightly understated the Labor vote in Braddon, and slightly overstated Sharkie’s vote in Mayo once postals are factored in. In Longman, there was a large error, with two polls taken in the penultimate week both giving the LNP a 51-49 lead. A <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/07/28/newspoll-51-49-labor-longman-braddon/">Newspoll</a> taken in the final days gave Labor a 51-49 lead, but Labor is likely to win at least 54% of the two party vote after postals.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-super-saturday-nears-labor-gains-poll-lead-in-braddon-but-trails-in-longman-while-uk-tories-slump-100011">As Super Saturday nears, Labor gains poll lead in Braddon, but trails in Longman, while UK Tories slump</a>
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<p>I believe Labor’s relatively poor performance in Bradddon is probably due to Tasmanian factors, in particular state Labor’s large loss at the March Tasmanian election.</p>
<p>These byelection results will be a huge boost for Opposition Leader Bill Shorten, who has been under pressure owing to poor head-to-head polling vs Malcolm Turnbull, especially as Labor’s national lead has narrowed. Shorten is now very likely to lead Labor to the next election.</p>
<p>At the June 2017 UK general election and the July 2018 Mexican presidential elections, left-wing leaders, respectively Jeremy Corbyn and Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), were well-known to the public before the election campaign began. Corbyn and AMLO both made big gains in the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexican_general_election,_2018#Opinion_polls">polls during the campaign</a>, then outperformed their polls on election day.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/conservatives-suffer-shock-loss-of-majority-at-uk-general-election-79109">Conservatives suffer shock loss of majority at UK general election</a>
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<p>In late May, Sky News ReachTEL polls gave the Liberals a 54-46 lead in Braddon and a 52-48 lead in Longman. The results in these byelections could be a sign that Australia may follow the UK and Mexico. Although Turnbull and the Coalition have substantially reduced Labor’s lead in the national polls, it could be a different story as the election approaches.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/reachtel-polls-labor-trailing-in-longman-and-braddon-and-how-senate-changes-helped-the-coalition-97677">ReachTEL polls: Labor trailing in Longman and Braddon, and how Senate changes helped the Coalition</a>
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<h2>National Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor (50-50 respondent allocated)</h2>
<p>A national <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-au/rise-support-both-turnbull-and-coalition">Ipsos poll</a>, conducted for the Fairfax papers on July 18-21 from a sample of 1,200, gave Labor a 51-49 lead, a two-point gain for the Coalition since late June. Primary votes were 39% Coalition (up four), 34% Labor (down one), 12% Greens (steady) and 6% One Nation (steady).</p>
<p>The respondent allocated preference measure showed a 50-50 tie, a reversion to the normal pattern where the Coalition does a point better in respondent allocated preferences than last election preferences. In June, respondent allocated preferences had Labor ahead by 54-46.</p>
<p>55% approved of Turnbull’s performance (up five), and 38% disapproved (down six), for a net rating of +17, up 11 points. Shorten’s net approval dropped three points to -16. Turnbull led Shorten by a massive 57-30 as better PM (51-33 in June).</p>
<p>Both Turnbull’s approval rating and his better PM rating were his highest since March 2016. While Ipsos gives Turnbull better ratings than other polls, these ratings for Turnbull are still very strong.</p>
<p>Labor led the Coalition by 48-41 on health (50-35 in June 2016). Labor also led on education 49-42 (51-37 previously) and the environment 49-35 (46-28). The Coalition led on the economy 60-33 (58-29), and on <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/coalition-narrows-gap-but-labor-keeps-slim-lead-in-fairfax-ipsos-poll-20180722-p4zsyw.html">asylum seekers</a> 45-41 (47-32 previously).</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/100013/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Despite reports Labor might struggle in Braddon and Longman, the byelections delivered a comfortable win in Braddon and a strong one in Longman.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1000112018-07-22T11:13:25Z2018-07-22T11:13:25ZAs Super Saturday nears, Labor gains poll lead in Braddon, but trails in Longman, while UK Tories slump<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228693/original/file-20180722-142432-1g5vwny.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Longman byelection is so tightly contested it has drawn many senior politicians to campaign. Here Labor candidate Susan Lamb is flanked by Shadow Minister for Skills, TAFE and Apprenticeships Doug Cameron, and Deputy Leader of the Opposition Tanya Plibersek.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Glenn Hunt</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Five federal byelections will be held on July 28 – four in Labor-held seats and one held by the Centre Alliance. In the Western Australian seats of Perth and Fremantle, the Liberals are not contesting, and Labor is expected to easily retain. In the South Australian seat of Mayo, the Centre Alliance’s Rebekha Sharkie has a large poll lead over the Liberals’ Georgina Downer. </p>
<p>The contested seats are thus the Tasmanian seat of Braddon (Labor by 2.2%) and the Queensland seat of Longman (Labor by 0.8%). Polls close at 6pm Melbourne time in Braddon and Longman, 6:30pm in Mayo and 8pm in Perth and Fremantle.</p>
<p>In Braddon, the Labor candidate, Susan Keay, held the seat until she was forced out through the citizenship saga. The Liberal candidate, Brett Whiteley, was the member until the 2016 election, so there will be little advantage for Keay from being well-known. A similar situation applies in Longman.</p>
<p>As noted in the article below, seat polls are unreliable, and there could be large errors in either direction.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/poll-wrap-labor-and-lnp-tied-in-longman-sharkies-massive-lead-in-mayo-but-can-we-trust-seat-polls-98844">Poll wrap: Labor and LNP tied in Longman, Sharkie's massive lead in Mayo, but can we trust seat polls?</a>
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<p>At the 2016 election, One Nation recommended preferences to Labor in Longman, and <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/20499/Website/HouseDivisionPage-20499-302.htm">Labor won 56.5%</a> of their preferences. At the byelection, One Nation is recommending <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/10/pauline-hansons-one-nation-directs-preferences-away-from-labor-in-longman">preferences to the LNP</a> — this could be crucial.</p>
<p>On July 17, The Courier Mail revealed that Longman LNP candidate Trevor Ruthenberg had a <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/2018/07/19/10/38/second-error-calls-candidate-into-question">lesser military medal</a> than he had claimed on his parliamentary website while a state MP. On July 19, the same paper revealed Ruthenberg had also claimed the higher medal on his personal website. Ruthenberg has apologised and said it was an honest mistake.</p>
<p>A Longman ReachTEL poll for The Courier Mail, conducted July 18 from an unknown sample, gave the LNP a 51-49 lead over Labor, unchanged since late June. <a href="https://twitter.com/GhostWhoVotes/status/1020811743541395456">Primary votes</a> were 37.9% LNP (Ruthenberg) (up 2.4%), 35.8% Labor (Susan Lamb) (down 3.2%), 13.9% One Nation (down 0.8%), 4.2% Greens (up 0.9%), 4.3% for all Others and 3.9% undecided. </p>
<p>Labor’s weaker primary vote is being compensated by a stronger flow of respondent allocated preferences. 41% thought Ruthenberg’s medal error an honest mistake, 33% a deliberate error and 27% a careless mistake.</p>
<p>In Braddon, a <a href="https://www.theadvocate.com.au/story/5538702/labors-justine-keay-best-placed-in-close-braddon-race-new-poll-suggests/?src=rss">ReachTEL poll</a> for the Australian Forestry Products Association, conducted July 19 from an unknown sample, gave Labor a 52-48 lead over the Liberals, a 2.5-point gain for Labor since analyst <a href="http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2018/05/2018-braddon-by-election.html">Kevin Bonham’s</a> estimate of a July 6 ReachTEL poll for the left-wing Australia Institute, and a six-point gain for Labor since a Sky News ReachTEL poll in late May.</p>
<p>Primary votes were 40.7% Liberal (Whiteley), 34.3% Labor (Keay), 8.9% for independent Craig Garland, 6.7% for the Greens and 4.6% undecided. 22% of undecided voters were leaning to Labor and just 11% to the Liberals. 67% of all non-major party preferences were going to Labor.</p>
<p>Garland supports a moratorium on salmon fishing expansion, and is recommending preferences to Labor ahead of the Liberals.</p>
<p>In the <a href="http://www.tai.org.au/sites/defualt/files/Braddon%20polling%20brief_0.pdf">Australia Institute ReachTEL</a>, 37% thought the company tax rate for businesses with over $50 million in turnover should be reduced, 37% kept the same and 20% increased. The question is better than previous Australian Institute questions on this topic, which gave examples of large businesses – banks, mining companies and supermarkets.</p>
<p>A total of 68% supported penalty rates for workers in the hospitality and retail industries, and just 23% were opposed.</p>
<p>I believe Labor’s biggest problem in Braddon is the March 2018 Tasmanian election, in which the Liberals won easily.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/reachtel-polls-labor-trailing-in-longman-and-braddon-and-how-senate-changes-helped-the-coalition-97677">ReachTEL polls: Labor trailing in Longman and Braddon, and how Senate changes helped the Coalition</a>
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<p><strong>Update Monday morning</strong>: Galaxy has conducted polls of Braddon, Longman and Mayo for the News Ltd tabloids. In Longman, the LNP led by 51-49 from primary votes of Labor 37%, LNP 34% and One Nation 18%. In Braddon, there was a 50-50 tie. In Mayo, Sharkie led Downer by an emphatic 59-41. If Anthony Albanese were Labor leader, Labor would lead by 53-47 in both Longman and Braddon.</p>
<h2>National Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor</h2>
<p>Last week’s <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll">Newspoll</a>, conducted July 12-15 from a sample of 1,640, gave Labor a 51-49 lead, unchanged on three weeks ago. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (down one), 36% Labor (down one), 10% Greens (up one) and 7% One Nation (up one).</p>
<p>This was Malcolm Turnbull’s 36th successive Newspoll loss, six more than Tony Abbott, and three more than the previous record for a government. The total vote for left- vs right-of-centre parties was unchanged at 46-45 to the left.</p>
<p>41% were satisfied with Turnbull’s performance (down one), and 49% were dissatisfied (up one), for a net approval of -8, the first decline in Turnbull’s net approval since early April. Bill Shorten’s net approval was up one point to -24. Turnbull led Shorten by 48-29 as better PM (46-31 previously); this was Turnbull’s biggest lead since May 2016.</p>
<p>By 72-23, voters approved of the reduction in the number of immigrants to below 165,000 in the last year, down from an annual cap of 190,000.</p>
<p>By 40-34, <a href="https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/b5cc17054c42ebf88bbf4c9fa066d7c7?width=650">voters thought Turnbull</a> and the Coalition better at maintaining energy supply and keeping power prices lower than Shorten and Labor, a reversal of a 39-37 Labor lead in late May. 64% thought the government’s priority should be to keep energy prices down, 24% meet targets to cut greenhouse gas emissions and 9% prevent blackouts.</p>
<p>By 58-32, <a href="https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/b18ac3bf38e08daed0383c85a2788eef?width=650">Australians were dissatisfied</a> with Donald Trump’s performance as US president, with One Nation voters giving Trump his best ratings (63-29 satisfied). This poll was taken before the controversial Helsinki summit.</p>
<p>The better PM statistic virtually always favours the incumbent PM given voting intentions, and it means very little at elections. The final pre-election 2016 Newspoll gave Turnbull a 48-31 better PM lead, yet the Coalition barely clung to a majority. The PM’s net approval correlates much better with voting intentions.</p>
<h2>Essential: 51-49 to Labor</h2>
<p>Last week’s <a href="http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Essential-Report-170718.pdf">Essential poll</a>, conducted July 12-15 from a sample of 1,014, gave Labor a 51-49 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since three weeks ago. Primary votes were 40% Coalition (steady), 36% Labor (down one), 10% Greens (down one) and 6% One Nation (steady). Essential is still using 2016 preference flows, and this poll would probably be 50-50 by Newspoll’s new method.</p>
<p>There appears to have been a shift towards support for coal power. By 40-38, voters agreed that the government should fund up to $5 billion to build new coal-fired plants or extend the life of existing ones. By 47-24, they agreed that coal-fired power is cheaper than power generated by renewables.</p>
<p>38% (up one since April) thought the government should prioritise renewable energy, 16% (up three) thought they should prioritise coal and 34% (down one) thought both should be treated equally.</p>
<p>By 73-20, voters supported banning plastic bags in supermarkets. By 57-36, voters thought it would change their behaviour as a consumer. 46% both agreed and disagreed that the plastic bag ban was simply an attempt by supermarkets to reduce costs.</p>
<h2>UK Conservatives lose support to UKIP after soft Brexit</h2>
<p>On July 6, the UK cabinet agreed on a soft Brexit. On July 8-9, hard Brexit cabinet ministers David Davis and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/09/boris-johnson-resigns-as-foreign-secretary-brexit">Boris Johnson</a> resigned in protest. Despite the anger of hard Brexiteers, I believe PM Theresa May is likely to survive, as explained <a href="http://adrianbeaumont.net/theresa-may-likely-to-survive-soft-brexit-fallout/">on my personal website</a>. </p>
<p>Hard Brexiteers do not have the numbers to oust her within the parliamentary Conservatives, and there is little common ground between the Conservative right and Labour, so parliamentary cooperation between them will only happen occasionally.</p>
<p>In polls conducted since the resignations of Davis and Johnson, some of the Conservative vote has gone to the UK Independence Party (UKIP), giving Labour a 4-5 point lead in the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election">last three polls</a>. The Conservatives had adopted UKIP’s rhetoric on Brexit, but now that they have settled on a soft Brexit, natural UKIP support is returning.</p>
<h2>In brief: Mexican election detailed results</h2>
<p>At the Mexican election held on July 1, the left-wing presidential candidate, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, won a landslide with 53.2% of the vote. Left-wing parties won a majority in both chambers of the Mexican legislature. Details are on <a href="http://adrianbeaumont.net/mexican-election-landslide-for-the-left/">my personal website</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/100011/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With the much anticipated Super Saturday byelections on Saturday, the polls in Longman and Braddon still show a very tight race.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/988442018-06-26T02:28:54Z2018-06-26T02:28:54ZPoll wrap: Labor and LNP tied in Longman, Sharkie’s massive lead in Mayo, but can we trust seat polls?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/224609/original/file-20180625-152176-n46jnx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Centre Alliance's Rebeka Sharkie looks to be a strong contestant in Mayo's by-election. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Kelly Barnes</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Longman and Mayo are two of the five seats that will be contested at byelections on July 28. <a href="http://www.tai.org.au/content/longman-and-mayo-new-polling-company-tax-cuts-and-voter-priorities-government-revenue">ReachTEL polls</a> for the left-wing Australia Institute had a 50-50 tie between Labor and the LNP in Longman, and a massive 62-38 lead for the Centre Alliance’s Rebekha Sharkie over the Liberals’ Georgina Downer in Mayo.</p>
<p>These polls represent a two-point gain for Labor in Longman since a late May ReachTEL for Sky News, and a four-point gain for Sharkie since early June. Both polls were conducted with 720 to 740 respondents on June 21 – the day the Coalition passed its <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-21/income-tax-cuts-pass/9893376">complete income tax cuts package</a> through the Senate.</p>
<p>Primary votes in Longman were 39.1% Labor, 34.9% LNP, 14.7% One Nation, 4.4% Greens, 3.7% Other and 3.2% undecided. With Labor well ahead on primary votes, the LNP is benefiting from a strong flow of One Nation preferences.</p>
<p>I believe this is the first Longman poll that has asked for candidate names, rather than just parties. Labor’s MP Susan Lamb resigned over the citizenship fiasco, but will recontest. The LNP’s candidate is <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/former-newman-government-mp-to-contest-wafer-thin-federal-byelection-20180522-p4zgw2.html">Trevor Ruthenberg</a>, former MP for the state seat of Kallangur, which is <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/images/maps/pdf/Longman.pdf">close to Longman</a>. Both major party candidates are likely to be well-known to Longman voters.</p>
<p>In Mayo, primary votes were 43.5% Sharkie, 32.7% Downer, 9.0% Greens, 8.2% Labor, 4.1% Other and 2.6% undecided. I discussed potential problems with Downer’s candidacy here.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/poll-wrap-coalitions-record-newspoll-losing-streak-and-rebekha-sharkie-has-large-lead-in-mayo-98304">Poll wrap: Coalition's record Newspoll losing streak, and Rebekha Sharkie has large lead in Mayo</a>
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<p>The ReachTEL Australia Institute polls for both Longman and Mayo repeated a question on the company tax cuts that I criticised in the above article.</p>
<h2>National Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor (54-46 respondent allocated)</h2>
<p>A national <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/polling-gets-personal-what-voters-really-think-of-malcolm-turnbull-and-bill-shorten-20180624-p4znen.html?_ga=2.39238371.1934013238.1529908269-1295107726.1489520971">Ipsos poll</a> for the Fairfax papers, conducted June 20-23 from a sample of 1,200, gave Labor a 53-47 lead by 2016 election preferences, a one-point gain for the Coalition since the post-budget Ipsos in mid-May. Primary votes were 35% Coalition (down one), 35% Labor (down two), 12% Greens (up one) and 6% One Nation (up one).</p>
<p>Labor’s 54-46 lead in the post-budget Ipsos was an outlier, with other polls showing better results for the Coalition. This week’s Ipsos is in line with other polls by 2016 election preferences.</p>
<p>Almost all polling this term has given the Coalition a better position in respondent allocated polling than using the previous election method. This Ipsos poll is an exception, with a 54-46 lead for Labor using respondent preferences, a point better for Labor than the previous election method.</p>
<p>Ipsos is the only current Australian pollster that uses live phone polling. It tends to have weaker primary votes for the major parties than other polls, and stronger primary votes for the Greens and Others.</p>
<p>50% (down one) approved of Malcolm Turnbull’s performance, and 44% (up five) disapproved, for a net approval of +6. Bill Shorten’s net approval was -13, down one point. Turnbull led Shorten by 51-33 as better PM (52-32 in May). Ipsos gives Turnbull stronger ratings than other pollsters, particularly Newspoll.</p>
<p>Turnbull led Shorten on nine of 11 attributes; the exceptions were on social policy and confidence of his party. The largest Turnbull leads were on economic policy (67-48) and foreign policy (64-45). Since April 2016, attribute scores have moved in Shorten’s favour.</p>
<p>In additional questions from last week’s Newspoll, voters favoured Turnbull over Shorten on asylum seekers by 47-30, down from a 52-27 margin in December 2017. 37% thought Labor would open the floodgates to asylum seekers if it wins the next election, 26% thought Labor would improve the current policy, and 24% thought there would be no difference.</p>
<h2>ReachTEL’s large error in Darling Range (WA) byelection</h2>
<p>On Saturday, the Liberals won the byelection for the Western Australian state seat of Darling Range by a 53.3-46.7 margin against Labor, a 9.1% swing to the Liberals since the 2017 state election. The byelection was caused by the resignation of Labor MP Barry Urban over allegations of fraudulent behaviour. You can read more at <a href="http://adrianbeaumont.net/liberals-win-darling-range-wa-byelection/">my personal website</a>.</p>
<p>The major implication of this byelection to the July 28 federal byelections is that individual seat polls can be very wrong. Just one week before the Darling Range byelection, a ReachTEL poll for <a href="https://thewest.com.au/news/wa/labor-set-for-victory-in-darling-range-by-election-despite-barry-urban-saga-reachtel-poll-says-ng-b88862892z?utm_campaign=share-icons&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&tid=1529123973442">The West Australian</a> gave Labor a 54-46 lead, so there was a seven-point error in this poll.</p>
<p>The Darling Range poll was skewed to Labor, but in general seat polls have had large misses in both directions. The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2016/07/25/pollster-performance-review/">Poll Bludger</a> reviewed the performance of seat polls at the last federal election in a July 2016 article. National and state-wide polls have been far more accurate in Australia.</p>
<p>If a seven-point error is applied to the Longman and Mayo polls, then Labor’s two party vote in Longman could be between 43% and 57%, and Sharkie could be between 55% and 69% in Mayo.</p>
<p>Another concern about the Longman poll is the unbelievable age breakdowns. Young people nationally are the strongest demographic for Labor and the Greens, but ReachTEL gave Labor just 20.4% among those aged 18-34, behind One Nation’s 23.0% and the LNP’s 38.8%. Among those aged 51-65, Labor had 53.8% and the LNP just 25.8%.</p>
<h2>In brief: Turkish President Erdoğan re-elected</h2>
<p>In Sunday’s <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_general_election,_2018">Turkish election</a>, incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who has dominated Turkish politics since 2002, was re-elected with 52.6% of the vote, avoiding a runoff election. Erdoğan’s AKP party lost its single-party parliamentary majority, but will form a coalition with a right-wing ally.</p>
<p>In April 2017, a constitutional referendum granted far more powers to the president at the expense of parliament. Erdoğan will arguably now have <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jun/24/erdogan-claims-victory-in-turkish-presidential-election?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other">powers comparable to a feudal</a> king.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/98844/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With the contest for the five ‘Super Saturday’ byelections heating up, Longman hangs in the balance, while Rebekha Sharkie has a solid lead in Mayo.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.