tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/reskilling-8956/articlesreskilling – The Conversation2023-09-26T15:00:50Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2141252023-09-26T15:00:50Z2023-09-26T15:00:50ZFossil fuel workers have the skills to succeed in green jobs, but location is a major barrier to a just transition<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549816/original/file-20230922-28-33hz0i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=67%2C16%2C5599%2C3687&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Renewable energy jobs often aren't close to fossil fuel workers' homes.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/portrait-of-a-wind-turbine-engineer-royalty-free-image/1433295579">Prapass Pulsub/Moment via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As the U.S. shifts away from fossil fuels to cleaner energy sources, thousands of coal, oil and gas workers will be looking for new jobs. </p>
<p>Many will have the skills to step into new jobs in the emerging clean energy industries, but the transition may not be <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/02/15/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-advances-cleaner-industrial-sector-to-reduce-emissions-and-reinvigorate-american-manufacturing/">as simple as it seems</a>. New research published in the journal Nature Communications <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-41133-9">identifies a major barrier</a> that is often overlooked in discussions of how to create a <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/02/15/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-advances-cleaner-industrial-sector-to-reduce-emissions-and-reinvigorate-american-manufacturing/">just transition</a> for these workers: location.</p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=HZcCKu8AAAAJ&hl=en">We</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=pia9kOsAAAAJ&hl=en">analyzed</a> 14 years of fossil fuel employment and skills data and found that, while many fossil fuel workers <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-41133-9">could transfer their skills to green jobs</a>, they historically have not relocated far when they changed jobs.</p>
<p>That suggests that it’s not enough to create green industry jobs. The jobs will have to be where the workers are, and most fossil fuel extraction workers are not in regions where green jobs are expected to grow. </p>
<p>Without careful planning and targeted policies, we estimate that <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-41133-9">only about 2%</a> of fossil fuel workers involved in extraction are likely to transition to green jobs this decade. Fortunately, there are ways to help smooth the transition.</p>
<h2>Many fossil fuel and green skills overlap</h2>
<p>As of 2019, <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/2021.02.22_BrookingsMetro_FossilFuel-MethodologyAppendix.pdf">about 1.7 million people</a> worked in jobs across the fossil fuels industry in the U.S., many of them in the regions from Texas and New Mexico to Montana and from Kentucky to Pennsylvania. As the country transitions from fossil fuel use to clean energy to protect the climate, <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-the-coal-industry-shrinks-miners-deserve-a-just-transition-heres-what-it-should-include-116340">many of those jobs will disappear</a>.</p>
<p>Policymakers tend to focus on skills training when they talk about the <a href="https://www.oecd.org/environment/cc/g20-climate/collapsecontents/Just-Transition-Centre-report-just-transition.pdf">importance of a just transition</a> for these workers and their communities.</p>
<p>To see how fossil fuel workers’ skills might transfer to green jobs, we used <a href="https://www.dol.gov/agencies/eta/onet">occupation and skills data</a> from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to compare them. These profiles provide information about the required workplace skills for over 750 occupations, including earth drillers, underground mining machine operators and other extraction occupations.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Workers in hard hats reach for pipes in a tall stand of pipes at a finishing well in Oklahoma." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549818/original/file-20230922-27-2sqfti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549818/original/file-20230922-27-2sqfti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549818/original/file-20230922-27-2sqfti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549818/original/file-20230922-27-2sqfti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549818/original/file-20230922-27-2sqfti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549818/original/file-20230922-27-2sqfti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549818/original/file-20230922-27-2sqfti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fossil fuel extraction jobs and renewable energy jobs are often hands-on.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/an-oil-well-worker-pumps-pipes-from-a-finishing-well-news-photo/509077802">J Pat Carter/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Overall, we found that many fossil fuel workers involved in extraction already have similar skills to those required in green occupations, <a href="https://institute.smartprosperity.ca/sites/default/files/transitionforfossilfuelworkers.pdf">as previous studies also found</a>. In fact, their skills tend to be more closely matched to green industries than most other industries.</p>
<p><a href="https://j2jexplorer.ces.census.gov/">Job-to-job flow data</a> from the U.S. Census Bureau showed that these workers historically tend to transition to other sectors with similar skills requirements. Thus, fossil fuel workers should be able to fill emerging green jobs with only minimal reskilling. </p>
<p>However, the data also shows that these fossil fuel workers <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-41133-9">typically do not travel far</a> to fill employment opportunities.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A worker stands in the nacelle of a wind turbine far above the ground." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549723/original/file-20230922-19-rocz7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549723/original/file-20230922-19-rocz7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549723/original/file-20230922-19-rocz7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549723/original/file-20230922-19-rocz7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549723/original/file-20230922-19-rocz7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549723/original/file-20230922-19-rocz7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549723/original/file-20230922-19-rocz7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A technician makes adjustments to a wind turbine in Colorado.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/iip-photo-archive/23095737515">Dennis Schroeder/NREL</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The location problem</h2>
<p>When we mapped the <a href="https://sites.pitt.edu/%7Emrfrank/justTransitionDemo/">current locations</a> of wind, solar, hydro and geothermal power plants using data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, we found that these sites had little overlap with fossil fuel workers.</p>
<p>The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ projections for where green jobs are <a href="https://www.bls.gov/emp/">likely to emerge by 2029</a> also showed little overlap with the locations of today’s fossil fuel workers.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550422/original/file-20230926-27-tzz4j9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="The map shows pockets across the U.S., such as California, the Upper Midwest and the Northeast" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550422/original/file-20230926-27-tzz4j9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550422/original/file-20230926-27-tzz4j9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=319&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550422/original/file-20230926-27-tzz4j9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=319&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550422/original/file-20230926-27-tzz4j9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=319&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550422/original/file-20230926-27-tzz4j9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550422/original/file-20230926-27-tzz4j9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550422/original/file-20230926-27-tzz4j9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Where green jobs linked to solar, wind, geothermal and hydropower production can be found.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://sites.pitt.edu/~mrfrank/justTransitionDemo/">Morgan Frank/University of Pittsburgh</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These results were consistent across several green employment projections and different definitions of “fossil fuel” occupations. That’s alarming for the prospects of a just transition. </p>
<h2>How policymakers can intervene</h2>
<p>Broadly, our findings point to two potential strategies for policymakers.</p>
<p>First, policymakers can explore incentives and programs that help fossil fuel workers relocate. However, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-41133-9">as our analysis</a> reveals, these populations have not historically exhibited geographic mobility.</p>
<p>Alternatively, policymakers could design incentives for green industry employers to build in fossil fuel communities. This might not be so simple. Green energy production often depends on where the <a href="https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/wind/where-wind-power-is-harnessed.php">wind blows strongest</a>, <a href="https://www.nrel.gov/gis/solar-resource-maps.html">solar power production is most effective</a> and <a href="https://www.nrel.gov/gis/geothermal.html">geothermal</a> power or hydropower is available.</p>
<p>We simulated the creation of new green industry employment in two different ways, one targeting fossil fuel communities and the other spread uniformly across the U.S. according to population. The targeted efforts led to significantly more transitions from fossil fuel to green jobs. For example, we found that creating 1 million location-targeted jobs produced more transitions than the creation of 5 million jobs that don’t take workers’ locations into account.</p>
<p>Another solution doesn’t involve green jobs at all. A similar analysis in our study of other existing U.S. sectors revealed that construction and manufacturing employment are already co-located with fossil fuel workers and would require only limited reskilling. Supporting manufacturing expansion in these areas could be a simpler solution that could limit the number of new employers needed to support a just transition.</p>
<p>There are other questions <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2023/07/21/biden-green-jobs-unions-labor/">that worry fossil fuel workers</a>, such as whether new jobs will pay as well and last beyond construction. More research is needed to assess effective policy interventions, but overall our study highlights the need for a comprehensive approach to a just transition that takes into account the unique challenges faced by fossil fuel workers in different regions. </p>
<p>By responding to these barriers, the U.S. can help ensure that the transition to a green economy is not only environmentally sustainable but also socially just.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214125/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Morgan R. Frank receives funding from Russell Sage Foundation and the Heinz Endowment.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Junghyun Lim received funding from Russell Sage Foundation and the Heinz Endowment.</span></em></p>In a greener future, what becomes of current fossil fuel workers? Despite possessing skills applicable to green industries, their geographical locations will limit their opportunities.Morgan R. Frank, Assistant Professor of Informatics, University of PittsburghJunghyun Lim, Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of North Carolina at Chapel HillLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1891142022-08-24T20:02:23Z2022-08-24T20:02:23ZMany jobs summit ideas for wages don’t make sense – upskilling does<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480751/original/file-20220824-18-qrxy6z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=779%2C311%2C3073%2C1600&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>This article is part of The Conversation’s series looking at Labor’s jobs summit. Read the other articles in the series <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/jobssummit2022-125921">here</a>.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>Treasury’s <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2022-08/2022-302672-ip_0.pdf">issues paper</a> for the jobs summit says fair pay and job security “strengthen communities, promote attractive careers and contribute to broad-based prosperity”.</p>
<p>But it notes “many Australians have not experienced real wage gains”. </p>
<p>It says real (inflation-adjusted) wages have grown by only 0.1% per year over the past decade and have declined substantially over the past year.</p>
<p>It is important to note Australia is not unique. </p>
<p>In Canada, France, Britain and the United States as well as in Australia, real wage growth has been much lower in the 12 years preceding COVID than it was in the decade before that.</p>
<hr>
<p><iframe id="bl8l5" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/bl8l5/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<hr>
<p>The critical question is why. Good policy depends on the answers.</p>
<p>For a long time, the authorities (in Australia, the Treasury and the Reserve Bank) assumed that low wage growth was caused by excessive slack in the labour market – too many unemployed workers available to take jobs, pushing down what could be asked for.</p>
<h2>Low unemployment isn’t driving up wages</h2>
<p>Unemployment exceeded their estimate of the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (<a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/explainers/nairu.html">NAIRU</a>), which was believed to be about 5%. The theory was that once unemployment fell below that level, workers would feel more confident about asking for bigger wage increases and employers would feel the need to offer them.</p>
<p>The problem was that as unemployment fell, wage growth still did not recover, or did not recover sufficiently. The authorities responded by lowering their estimate of the NAIRU to somewhere between <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/publication/p2021-164397">4.5% and 5%</a> without changing the model.</p>
<p>But with unemployment now down to 3.4%, and wage growth still low at 2.6%, it might be time to reexamine the model.</p>
<h2>Productivity works both ways</h2>
<p>The other thing the authorities consider is the rate of growth in labour productivity (output per hour worked). Australia’s productivity growth averaged 2.1% per year from 1989 to 2004 but has since fallen to about <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2022-08/2022-302672-ip_0.pdf">1%</a> per year, the lowest rate in half a century.</p>
<p>The authorities’ model, which assumes perfect competition, constant returns to scale and neutral technological progress implies that real wages can be expected to grow at the same rate as productivity, neither more nor less, making it look as if the collapse in productivity growth explains the collapse in wages growth.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/are-real-wages-falling-heres-the-evidence-182171">Are real wages falling? Here's the evidence</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>But there are problems with this explanation. One is that real wage growth has not always kept pace with productivity growth. In many countries the share of national income going to wages fell as productivity growth was climbing.</p>
<p>Another problem is that low wage growth can contribute to low productivity growth.</p>
<p>Productivity growth depends principally on the adoption of and adaptation to new innovations, which require new investment. However, investment depends principally on consumer demand, which is driven by wages growth.</p>
<h2>Wages can drive investment</h2>
<p>Private business investment in plant and machinery averaged 6.7% of gross domestic product between 1989 and 2004 but fell to 5.1% after 2004. </p>
<p>It is entirely possible that if we were able to successfully address the structural causes of low wage growth, we could accelerate wages growth and thus consumer demand, which would accelerate productivity growth, giving us wages growth without a wage-price spiral.</p>
<p>So, what are these structural factors slowing wage growth?</p>
<p>The most-discussed suggestions are changed industrial relations settings (including shrinking trade union membership) and technological change and globalisation.</p>
<h2>Low-skill jobs are hollowing out</h2>
<p>Although there is something in both of these explanations, I put more weight on technological change and globalisation in part because other countries with different industrial relations systems also experienced weak wage growth, and also because the hollowing out of occupations clearly played a role and it is hard to see how the industrial relations system could have contributed to this.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-chalmers-graphs-7-75-inflation-plunging-real-wages-weak-growth-187851">The Chalmers graphs: 7.75% inflation, plunging real wages, weak growth</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The argument is that technological change and globalisation have hollowed out routine middle-level jobs, depressing pay in these occupations relative to higher-paid occupations.</p>
<p>This means programs to lift wage growth should focus on improving the capacity of the labour market to adapt to new technologies, which means retraining.</p>
<p>As the workforce upskills, wages will increase as workers shift to higher-paid jobs where workers are in short supply.</p>
<p>Thomas Piketty put it this way in his <a href="https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2014/05/04/thomas-pikettys-capital-summarised-in-four-paragraphs">major study of inequality</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>the best way to increase wages and reduce wage inequalities in the long run is to invest in education and skills</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Although skills, training and migration are listed as key topics for the jobs summit, the treasury’s issues paper focuses almost entirely on industrial relations in its discussion of how best to boost wages.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480757/original/file-20220824-18-44ulv8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480757/original/file-20220824-18-44ulv8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480757/original/file-20220824-18-44ulv8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=969&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480757/original/file-20220824-18-44ulv8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=969&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480757/original/file-20220824-18-44ulv8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=969&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480757/original/file-20220824-18-44ulv8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1218&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480757/original/file-20220824-18-44ulv8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1218&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480757/original/file-20220824-18-44ulv8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1218&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://treasury.gov.au/publication/2022-302672">Treasury's issues paper</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The paper puts a lot of emphasis on restoring and improving enterprise bargaining, which the paper says, “should be a key enabler of both productivity growth and secure and well paid work”. </p>
<p>I am sceptical about this making much difference. </p>
<p>As I noted, other countries with different industrial relations systems have low wage growth.</p>
<p>The changes to the industrial relations system that would most help are those that improve job and pay security for the almost one third of workers who are casuals or independent contractors. </p>
<p>Helping them might flow on to others.</p>
<p>And wages in the public sector and jobs that are largely financed by government – such as those in health, education and caring – <a href="https://theconversation.com/if-the-pm-wants-wage-rises-he-should-start-with-the-1-6-million-people-on-state-payrolls-188904">appear to be inadequate</a>. There is clear evidence of unattractive salaries and work conditions causing labour shortages.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/if-the-pm-wants-wage-rises-he-should-start-with-the-1-6-million-people-on-state-payrolls-188904">If the PM wants wage rises, he should start with the 1.6 million people on state payrolls</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>These sectors are dominated by women, meaning improving their pay and conditions would help address the gender pay gap.</p>
<p>The price of improving the pay and conditions of these workers is worth paying, but it will come at a cost to budgets, which will have to be financed by <a href="https://theconversation.com/memo-to-labor-you-need-more-tax-working-out-how-much-more-is-urgent-183638">tax</a>, something participants at the summit should acknowledge.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189114/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Keating is a former Secretary of the departments of Employment and Industrial Relations, Finance, and Prime Minister and Cabinet.</span></em></p>The best way to increase wages is to invest in education and skills.Michael Keating, Visiting Fellow, College of Business & Economics, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1481152020-10-14T14:45:19Z2020-10-14T14:45:19ZBallet dancers should absolutely think about becoming computer programmers – here’s why<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363412/original/file-20201014-21-1bdzny3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">From pirouettes to intranets ...</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/DrUguS1oBGU">Robert Collins</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>There has been quite a backlash since the UK government launched an advert encouraging dancers to think about retraining in cyber security. The ad, which has <a href="https://www.campaignlive.co.uk/article/governments-cyber-first-campaign-pulled-amid-online-backlash/1697021">since been</a> withdrawn, depicted a female ballet dancer with the strapline: “Fatima’s next job could be in cyber (she just doesn’t know it yet)”, with a message below to “Rethink. Reskill. Reboot”.</p>
<p>The ad was intended as the first part of a government Cyber First campaign to encourage more people into the industry. It <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54505841">was labelled</a> as “crass” by Oliver Dowden, the culture secretary, and “not appropriate” by a No 10 spokesperson, after many, including leading choreographer <a href="https://twitter.com/SirMattBourne/status/1315597677355204608">Sir Matthew Bourne</a>, took <a href="https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/fatima-ballet-dancer-job-cyber-government-campaign-a4568641.html">to Twitter</a> to complain that the advert was “patronising” and highlighted that the government was not supporting the arts. </p>
<p>Some <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/cyberfirst-advert-rethink-reskill-reboot-fatimas-next-job-coronavirus-arts-b992467.html">interpreted it</a> as a sinister threat that “dancing was going to be ripped away”. Others detected “the plotting of an Orwellian state deciding its citizens’ futures”. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1315597677355204608"}"></div></p>
<p>In my view, as a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00291950701553848">professor of enterprise</a> who has written on dance and who is also the governor of a leading ballet school, this social media reaction is distracting for a number of reasons. Martha Graham, the American choreographer, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b075pm41#:%7E:text=%22A%20dancer%20dies%20twice%22%2C,dancer's%20body%20begins%20to%20change.">proclaimed that</a> a “dancer dies twice” – “once when they stop dancing, and this first death is the more painful”. This first “death” means that they also have two careers. </p>
<p>The age at which a dancer transitions into another career depends on the individual. Some active dancers continue into their late thirties or early forties. After that, they may become choreographers, art administrators or dance teachers, while <a href="https://balletalert.invisionzone.com/topic/28917-dancers-whose-second-careers-are-surprising/">others become</a> solicitors, builders, farmers, police officers, florists, stock brokers and authors. <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2013/02/13/us/rahm-emanuel-fast-facts/index.html">Rahm Emanuel</a> trained as a ballet dancer and eventually became senior advisor to Bill Clinton between 1993 and 1998, then chief of staff at the White House to Barack Obama and finally mayor of Chicago.</p>
<h2>Why computer programming</h2>
<p>This extensive list of careers certainly includes computer programming. <a href="https://careerfoundry.com/en/magazine/dancer-to-developer-career-change/">Kasia, for example</a>, trained as a dancer and ran her own dance studio in Berlin. She developed her own website to reach an international audience and this made her decide to become a web developer. She developed programming skills and combined them with the skills she had developed and refined as a dancer. </p>
<p>Dance as a career involves extraordinarily high levels of commitment, concentration, persistence, passion and training. My own experience is that dancers are exceptional individuals with many interesting and diverse talents and many are also able mathematicians. These transferable skills can be applied to many occupations. Dance and cyber security are both about patterns, rhythms and attention to detail. There is nothing to suggest that dance is not a suitable pathway towards computer programming.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363475/original/file-20201014-19-8fl92g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Woman coding at a desk." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363475/original/file-20201014-19-8fl92g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363475/original/file-20201014-19-8fl92g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363475/original/file-20201014-19-8fl92g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363475/original/file-20201014-19-8fl92g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363475/original/file-20201014-19-8fl92g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363475/original/file-20201014-19-8fl92g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363475/original/file-20201014-19-8fl92g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">More women reqd.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/software-developer-freelancer-woman-female-glasses-1504251974">Monstar Studio</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>At the same time, computer science is a very strange subject. It is still possible for amateur programmers to out-compete professionals. The training pathways to a computer science career are still varied. The cutting edge of computer science innovation is not to be found in universities, but <a href="https://www.panmacmillan.com/authors/clive-thompson/coders/9781529018981">in the private sector</a> – and in some cases the bedrooms of teenage programmers.</p>
<p>Consider the strange case of Pikeville, Kentucky. This was a former coal-mining area in the Appalachians in which many people had ended up unemployed as more and more environmental regulations made the industry unviable. Between 2008 and 2016, the <a href="https://medium.com/migration-issues/appalachia-is-dying-pikeville-is-not-fa583dac67de">number of miners</a> in the state declined from 17,000 to 6,500.</p>
<p>One response came from Rusty Justice, the owner of a land-moving company that had lived off the coal industry. He had realised he needed to transition to a new career. In 2013, he visited a technology incubator and realised there was a shortage of programmers in the local economy and that these jobs could pay around US$80,000 (£61,865) a year. He decided to bring coding to Pikeville by training unemployed miners as programmers. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363423/original/file-20201014-19-tz63h9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Aerial shot of Pikeville, Kentucky" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363423/original/file-20201014-19-tz63h9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363423/original/file-20201014-19-tz63h9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363423/original/file-20201014-19-tz63h9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363423/original/file-20201014-19-tz63h9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363423/original/file-20201014-19-tz63h9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=602&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363423/original/file-20201014-19-tz63h9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=602&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363423/original/file-20201014-19-tz63h9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=602&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pikeville, Kentucky: out with the coal, in with the silicon.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Pikeville,_Kentucky_aerial.jpg#/media/File:Pikeville,_Kentucky_aerial.jpg">Wikimedia</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Justice founded <a href="https://bitsourceky.com/team/">BitSource</a> in a former Coca-Cola bottling plant and recruited 11 ex-miners to create a coding team for the region. The company started by training them from scratch with a 22-week training programme. Part of the rationale was that you do not need a computer science degree to programme. <a href="https://www.wired.com/2015/11/can-you-teach-a-coal-miner-to-code/">According to</a> Nick Such, Rusty’s partner: “It’s like welding. It’s a trade. It’s a skill.”</p>
<p><a href="https://www.wired.com/2015/11/can-you-teach-a-coal-miner-to-code/">One motivation</a> in setting up the company was to prove the American billionaire Michael Bloomberg wrong, after <a href="https://venturebeat.com/2014/04/09/bloomberg-to-zuckerberg-youre-not-going-to-teach-a-coal-miner-to-code/">he had said</a> that “you’re not going to teach a coal miner to code”. This was in response to a debate with Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg about the extent to which you could retrain people whose jobs had become surplus. </p>
<p>BitSource has demonstrated that it is perfectly possible for coal miners to become computer programmers. And if it’s possible for miners, it is obviously possible for dancers too. As a society, we should encourage diversity and not attempt to close down possible career pathways. Everyone should be encouraged to develop careers that reflect their interests and circumstances.</p>
<p>All the media commentary on the Fatima advert suggests that ballet dancers should focus on their dance careers, but the challenge for a dancer involves their second career when they are no longer able to dance. There should be no constraints on dancers as they shape their careers to meet their own interests and circumstances. </p>
<p>There is nothing to suggest that a retired dancer would be unable to compete in the world of cyber security. The focus of the media and political discussion should not be about closing down pathways for people to enter the labour market. Instead <a href="https://www.investinwork.org/-/media/CACB19E78B3B41D6838AFBA188D40ABD.ashx">it should be</a> on identifying opportunities for all.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148115/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Bryson is a governor (volunteer) of Elmhurst Ballet School, Birmingham. Elmhurst is an independent school for classical ballet students aged 11-19 years. The school's focus is on training dancers who become exceptional dance professionals.</span></em></p>A government ad was slated for encouraging dancers to go into cyber security, but it actually contained a very good idea.John Bryson, Professor of Enterprise and Competitiveness, University of BirminghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1283602020-01-02T16:25:19Z2020-01-02T16:25:19ZUpskill the upskillers: The must-have New Year’s resolution for businesses<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306109/original/file-20191210-95130-28eaz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C7360%2C4836&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">It's critical that learning and development teams are upskilled and reskilled themselves to help organizations successfully engage in a digital transformation.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Today, <a href="https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x7ki3yx">the survival of many organizations</a> depends on their plans to leverage cutting-edge artificial intelligence (AI) technologies <a href="https://www.lapresse.ca/affaires/economie/grande-entrevue/201908/07/01-5236630-lia-au-secours-de-la-banque-de-demain.php">to transform their workplaces into augmented environments</a>. </p>
<p>A recent <a href="https://newsroom.ibm.com/2019-09-06-IBM-Study-The-Skills-Gap-is-Not-a-Myth-But-Can-Be-Addressed-with-Real-Solutions">IBM study</a> found that, as a result of AI and intelligent automation, 120 million workers will need to develop <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/allisondulinsalisbury/2019/10/28/as-pressure-to-upskill-grows-5-models-emerge/#98ed682680cd">new skills or even be transitioned out of companies to different jobs</a> in the next three years. Half of the surveyed organizations had done little to rethink their training strategies to respond to this urgency.</p>
<p>For that digital transformation to happen, organizations must avoid <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-answer-to-your-companys-hiring-problem-might-be-right-under-your-nose-11555689542">the costly “buy, not build” talent strategy</a> that involves opting for expensive new hires instead of retraining their current employees.</p>
<p>Instead, as 2020 kicks off, they need to launch a <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/04/skills-jobs-investing-in-people-inclusive-growth/">reskilling revolution</a> that places their employees at the centre of the digital transformation, focuses on them as human beings with unique capabilities and helps them to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qfpmggpsdtk">collaborate with new technologies</a>.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/rSDxkZCcsaU?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">ISTE.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But do those helping to lead the “reskilling revolution” meet the requirements of the <a href="https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/reframing-the-future-of-work/">future of work</a>? </p>
<p>There is a desperate <a href="https://www.ibm.com/topics/training-development">need for innovative, even disruptive approaches for training</a> that involve many types of learning. Training can be responsive, adaptive, personalized, mobile, self-service or on-demand, self-directed, experiential, collaborative, social. Some training must be available at the moment employees need it, also called just-in-time training, or <a href="https://hbr.org/2019/02/making-learning-a-part-of-everyday-work">during the flow of work</a>.</p>
<p>Some of these training methods use game-based learning, or <a href="https://smallbiztrends.com/2017/07/what-is-gamification.html">gamification</a>, and emergent technologies such as simulation, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.promfg.2019.03.014">augmented reality</a>, <a href="https://hbr.org/2019/10/research-how-virtual-reality-can-help-train-surgeons">virtual reality</a>, mixed reality or <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s00170-019-03939-0">cross reality</a>, to name just a few.</p>
<h2>Learning and development teams</h2>
<p>Training experts will help future workers adapt to the inevitable digital change. These include learning and development teams, also known as learning engineers, learning experience designers, instructional designers, educational technologists, experts in talent and organizational development, training specialists or performance consultants. Whatever they’re called, they’ll be <a href="https://www.cedefop.europa.eu/en/publications-and-resources/publications/6106">at the forefront</a> of <a href="https://hbr.org/2019/09/its-time-for-a-c-level-role-dedicated-to-reskilling-workers">training workers</a> to collaborate with the technology to improve productivity and business performance.</p>
<p>Yet these teams themselves are experiencing the digital transformation and also face an unknown future. They too need training.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306118/original/file-20191210-95135-3utgkl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306118/original/file-20191210-95135-3utgkl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306118/original/file-20191210-95135-3utgkl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306118/original/file-20191210-95135-3utgkl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306118/original/file-20191210-95135-3utgkl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306118/original/file-20191210-95135-3utgkl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306118/original/file-20191210-95135-3utgkl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306118/original/file-20191210-95135-3utgkl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Learning and development teams need a host of new skills themselves.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Unsplash)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Many predict AI will have a considerable impact on the field of educational technology. <a href="https://library.educause.edu/-/media/files/library/2019/4/2019horizonreport.pdf">Its presence in education</a> is expected to grow by 43 per cent by 2022. </p>
<p>The application of AI in education <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s41239-019-0171-0">includes</a> profiling and prediction, assessment and evaluation, adaptive systems and personalization of learning and intelligent tutoring systems.</p>
<p><a href="https://blockgeeks.com/guides/what-is-blockchain-technology/">Blockchain</a>, another disruptive technology, has the potential to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s41039-019-0097-0">oversee lifelong learning</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1344/der.2019.35.130-150">global learning itineraries</a>. As learning becomes a continuous and ongoing process, blockchain can document all learning activities and connect learning records across different institutions.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/transparency-and-privacy-empowering-people-through-blockchain-104887">Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>This could lead to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FajOrOQocEM">a drastic change</a> in the role of learning and development teams to include, among other things, applying data science and advanced analytics to organizational learning.</p>
<p>Typically, these teams lead <a href="https://mkto.cisco.com/rs/cisco/images/Bersin-Continuous-Learnng-Cisco-Collaborative-Knowledge.pdf">the development of employee knowledge, skills and competencies and work to improve the overall talent pool in the organization</a>. They also provide employees with personal growth opportunities, which drives engagement and retention. </p>
<p>Today, their responsibilities have evolved and are focused on helping <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2017/05/03/the-future-of-jobs-and-jobs-training/">existing and future workers find their place in the workplaces of tomorrow</a>. They also address the resistance to change for many, from managers to the rank-and-file.</p>
<h2>The need for lifelong upskilling</h2>
<p>Similar to all groups navigating the digital transformation, learning and development teams need to be able <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/government/system/digital-government/modern-emerging-technologies/responsible-use-ai.html">to collaborate ethically, critically, responsibly and sustainably</a> with machines and emerging technologies.</p>
<p>In addition to technical skills, they require <a href="https://www.oecd-forum.org/users/180741-deb-whitman/posts/54427-the-future-of-work-for-all-generations">uniquely human capabilities</a> that include the ability to negotiate, motivate, persuade, co-ordinate and identify and solve problems. They will be expected to take initiative, to be critical thinkers, great collaborators and communicators, curious, creative and adaptable. They will need a global mindset, diversity acumen and empathy, to name just a few requirements.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/in-an-ai-era-lessons-from-dinosaurs-help-us-adapt-to-the-future-of-work-113444">In an AI era, lessons from dinosaurs help us adapt to the future of work</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>While the traditional role of learning and development teams <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/14480220.2018.1576327">requires a well-defined set of knowledge and skills</a>, <a href="https://www.cedefop.europa.eu/en/publications-and-resources/publications/6106">action is required worldwide</a> to help them evolve and develop competencies that reflect their changing roles.</p>
<p>To help their organizations compete in the digital era, learning and development professionals <a href="https://mkto.cisco.com/rs/cisco/images/Bersin-Continuous-Learnng-Cisco-Collaborative-Knowledge.pdf">will have to completely reinvent themselves</a>. They need to engage in continuous learning, to develop new skills, new capabilities and lead the change.</p>
<p>Upskilling and reskilling should be a priority for these teams so that they can determine <a href="https://doi.org/10.1108/JMD-03-2019-0069">efficient training strategies</a> for their organizations.</p>
<p>Yet there’s a gap in the literature when it comes to the training, upskilling and lifelong learning once these experts are in the field. </p>
<h2>A wealth of information</h2>
<p>In the age of ubiquitous information, books, podcasts, magazine articles, blogs and webinars are abundant. Some come with free access; others demand registrations. This requires not only handling the overwhelming amount of information, but also filtering it critically. </p>
<p>Conferences also offer excellent exchange spaces for those who can afford them. Many learning and development professionals engage in conversations on social media in an active attempt to stay close to the trends. </p>
<p>But these random “staying up-to-date strategies” aren’t documented or studied well. This needs to change.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306120/original/file-20191210-95135-fj9iu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306120/original/file-20191210-95135-fj9iu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306120/original/file-20191210-95135-fj9iu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306120/original/file-20191210-95135-fj9iu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306120/original/file-20191210-95135-fj9iu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306120/original/file-20191210-95135-fj9iu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306120/original/file-20191210-95135-fj9iu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306120/original/file-20191210-95135-fj9iu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Branson has long championed empowering employees.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Oded Balilty)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Richard Branson, founder of the Virgin Group, once said: “<a href="https://www.virgin.com/entrepreneur/why-is-looking-after-your-employees-so-important">Take care of your employees and they’ll take care of your business</a>.” Today, we add, take care of your learning and development teams and they will <a href="https://learning.linkedin.com/content/dam/me/business/en-us/amp/learning-solutions/images/workplace-learning-report-2019/pdf/workplace-learning-report-2019.pdf">take care of your employees</a>.</p>
<p>For a winning digital transformation, every organization should establish the upskilling and reskilling of their learning and development teams as their critical 2020 New Year’s resolution.</p>
<p>Most New Year’s resolutions do not stick. </p>
<p>This one should, and it must.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/making-new-years-resolutions-personal-could-actually-make-them-stick-106780">Making New Year's resolutions personal could actually make them stick</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>[ <em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/128360/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nadia Naffi receives funding from the National Bank to support the work of her Chair in Educational Leadership. This Chair focuses on training future experts in the field of educational technology, learning and development, and lifelong learning in the era of digital transformation and artificial intelligence.
Nadia Naffi is affiliated with the Centre de recherche et d'intervention sur l'éducation et la vie au travail (CRIEVAT), the Observatoire international sur les impacts sociétaux de l'IA et du numérique (OBVIA), the Institut Technologies de l’information et Sociétés (ITIS), the Centre de recherche et d'intervention sur la réussite scolaire (CRIRES), and Milieux Institute for Arts, Culture and Technology.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ann-Louise Davidson and Houda Jawhar do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>For a winning digital transformation, every organization should establish the upskilling and reskilling of their learning and development teams as their critical 2020 New Year’s resolution.Nadia Naffi, Assistant Professor, Educational Technology, Holds the Chair in Educational Leadership in the Sustainable Transformation of Pedagogical Practices in Digital Contexts, Université LavalAnn-Louise Davidson, Concordia University Research Chair, Maker culture; Associate Professor, Educational Technology, Concordia UniversityHouda Jawhar, Research assistant, Concordia UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1242412019-10-24T11:51:33Z2019-10-24T11:51:33ZThe future of the US workforce will rely on AI, but don’t count human workers out just yet<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/297562/original/file-20191017-98657-1r0f8x3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Robots have already started moving into Amazon's workforce alongside people.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Future-of-Work-Artificial-Intelligence/bf28d0db77904a1ba5c9e65229cb1fc5/3/0">AP Photo/Mary Altaffer</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Artificial intelligence has replaced <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbestechcouncil/2018/02/26/artificial-intelligence-will-take-your-job-what-you-can-do-today-to-protect-it-tomorrow/#50d0af9b4f27">many skills in recent years</a> – including <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/will-robots-take-your-job-humans-ignore-coming-ai-revolution-ncna845366">the skills needed to do some human jobs</a>.</p>
<p>The tech revolution has <a href="https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2018/01/31/many-americans-feel-positive-about-artificial-intelligence-study-says">not gone unnoticed</a> by American workers. A 2018 Gallup poll revealed that <a href="https://www.northeastern.edu/gallup/">70% of Americans believe</a> AI will eliminate more jobs than it creates.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.yang2020.com/meet-andrew/">Democratic presidential candidate</a> Andrew Yang <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/10/technology/his-2020-campaign-message-the-robots-are-coming.html">has sounded the alarm</a>, raising the prospect that millions are at risk for long-term joblessness.</p>
<p>I’m <a href="https://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=n5yfCgAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PP2&dq=reskilling&ots=Dhq7Vhqnpl&sig=AmhHyI3o4iRIGvJuRCcaFpSgZxc#v=onepage&q=reskilling&f=false">an expert on labor markets</a> in the U.S., and I believe that AI will undoubtedly change the future of U.S. labor – but Yang is also exaggerating the impact AI will have on the workforce.</p>
<p>The solution to job loss sparked by automation lies less in <a href="https://read.amazon.com/kp/embed?asin=B075CRY4TZ&tag=bing08-20&linkCode=kpp&reshareId=Y10N1KFCQSEQ91PV5H1T&reshareChannel=system">Yang’s guaranteed income proposal</a>, and more in <a href="https://hrdailyadvisor.blr.com/2018/07/16/what-is-reskilling/">reskilling</a> the labor force, a process that would involve educating workers to do the jobs a more automated economy will require.</p>
<h2>Growing industries</h2>
<p>MIT economist <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Frank_Levy">Frank Levy</a> has noted that <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3091867">AI generally automates parts of occupations</a> rather than the whole job.</p>
<p>For example, people process information at work, while computers can only execute instructions. Even jobs that have shrunk because of automation include components that require human judgment.</p>
<p>This is why there are still occupations like customer service agents, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3091867">even as automated processes have learned to handle</a> many routine transactions.</p>
<p><a href="https://sebastianraschka.com/Articles/2014_intro_supervised_learning.html">Predictive models</a>, which lie at the heart of AI, are never right all the time. Incidents that fall outside the boundaries of ordinary or routine decisions – for example, <a href="https://emerj.com/ai-sector-overviews/ai-in-law-legal-practice-current-applications/">legal cases</a> – have to be handled by people who can make complex decisions.</p>
<p>This means that <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/u/unskilled-labor.asp">low-skill jobs</a>, the ones that can truly be replaced because they follow the same routines, <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/alltechconsidered/2017/11/30/567408644/automation-could-displace-800-million-workers-worldwide-by-2030-study-says">are likely to disappear</a>, while middle- and high-skill jobs are likely to grow.</p>
<p>But the results are not always easy to predict. For example, many bank tellers have been <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/bank-teller-automation-on-the-rise-with-new-atm-technology-2017-6">replaced by ATMs</a>. But this development has lowered the cost of running a bank branch so profoundly that banks are sprouting on every corner in most major cities.</p>
<p>As a result of these two countervailing forces, the number of tellers <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3091867">has actually stayed roughly constant</a> since the invention of the ATM, mainly because they were needed to service the nonroutine aspects of customer service in a growing number of branches.</p>
<h2>Who’s at risk?</h2>
<p>Economists who study AI often underplay the gravity of the jobs losses it will create because they tend to look at the big picture.</p>
<p>Overall, new technology usually increases the demand for labor because it spurs growth. But for single-industry regions like <a href="https://www.freep.com/story/money/business/john-gallagher/2018/02/22/michigan-recession-economy-jobs/308236002/">Detroit with its auto factories</a> or <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/29/the-kentucky-coal-town-fighting-to-survive-after-coal-mining-closings.html">Appalachia with its coal mines</a>, the big picture is little comfort.</p>
<p>Positive economic growth across the country – <a href="https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/occupations-most-job-growth.htm">reflected in national trends</a> – does not pay the bills for auto workers on the assembly line who have been replaced by robots. If they haven’t had the opportunity to become an expert in robot repair, they may have a hard time.</p>
<p>Yang – who <a href="https://twitter.com/AndrewYang/status/1149080948576870400">believes that reskilling does not work</a> – argues that <a href="https://read.amazon.com/kp/embed?asin=B075CRY4TZ&tag=bing08-20&linkCode=kpp&reshareId=336GMAJN4XZJZF3H4AGB&reshareChannel=system">the government should give every American US$1,000 a month</a> so that they have time to ponder the right path.</p>
<p><a href="https://elizabethwarren.com">Another presidential candidate</a>, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, argues that <a href="https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2019/10/16/part-1-cnn-nyt-democratic-presidential-debate-ohio-october-15-2019.cnn">Yang’s plan is a form of social security</a>, and I believe she’s right. Giving people money <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/research/social-security/policy-basics-top-ten-facts-about-social-security">works well</a> for <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/disabilityfacts/facts.html">those who can no longer manage to work</a>, but isn’t the right solution for people who need to remain in the workforce.</p>
<p>Instead, U.S. officials need to build ladders to <a href="https://nationalskillscoalition.org/state-policy/fact-sheets">middle-skill jobs</a> that are <a href="http://statchatva.org/2019/07/18/middle-skill-jobs-and-education/">growing rapidly</a>. Institutes of higher education need to create certificates for technical courses so that current workers do not become obsolete. </p>
<h2>Reskilling the workforce</h2>
<p>Education is not an enterprise that should end after school.</p>
<p>Accommodating change in the labor market means continuous training. Educational institutions that complement classroom learning, which creates general skills, with shop floor experience, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/648671">which generates firm-specific skills</a>, forge a valuable combination.</p>
<p>That’s what the <a href="https://www.economy.com/germany/labor-force-employment/">Germans learned</a> decades ago when they created their “<a href="https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/how-germanys-vocational-education-and-training-system-works">dual education</a>” system that combines rigorous classroom training with apprenticeships on the shop floor.</p>
<p>That fusion has <a href="https://www.insidehighered.com/views/2018/03/27/how-adapt-german-apprenticeship-model-work-best-us">produced the world’s best-trained labor force in hundreds of occupations ranging from manufacturing to nursing</a>. <a href="http://emcet.net/download/products/req/professional_standards_for_vocational_training_specialists_germany.pdf">Rigorous national examinations</a> in all those occupations certify just how much an apprentice knows and can do on the shop floor.</p>
<p>Although the U.S. pursued <a href="https://qz.com/work/1715385/american-companies-have-a-hiring-problem/">a similar path during World War II</a>, most companies later abandoned it, mainly because employers were not willing to commit the kind of resources in the form of in-house training that the <a href="https://www.fastcompany.com/3058946/what-the-us-can-learn-from-germanys-work-training-programs">Germans willingly provide</a>.</p>
<p>Investing in these forms of training will not happen just by giving people <a href="https://time.com/5528621/andrew-yang-universal-basic-income/">an allowance</a>. Reskilling necessitates a <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/04/skills-jobs-investing-in-people-inclusive-growth/">federal and state investment</a> as well as <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-work/retraining-and-reskilling-workers-in-the-age-of-automation">employer buy-in</a> of the kind German companies are making.</p>
<p>Reskilling is <a href="https://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED507124.pdf">not an inexpensive proposition</a>. In 2010, the federal government, states and municipalities <a href="https://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=n5yfCgAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PP2&dq=reskilling&ots=Dhq7Vhqnpl&sig=AmhHyI3o4iRIGvJuRCcaFpSgZxc#v=onepage&q=reskilling&f=false">spent 7.2 billion euros</a> – over $9 billion at 2010 exchange rates – on vocational education and training in Germany.</p>
<p>But I see it as the only sensible solution to keep workers – whether new to the labor force or experienced and determined to avoid technical obsolescence – ahead of automation, productively employed in the industries of the future and able to take care of themselves. </p>
<p>[ <em>You respect facts and expertise. So do The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=yourespect">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/124241/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katherine Newman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Many Americans fear that AI will take their jobs. And it might – but it’s more complicated than that.Katherine Newman, Interim Chancellor and Torrey Little Professor of Sociology, UMass BostonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/594502016-05-16T04:02:23Z2016-05-16T04:02:23ZWe can’t have a strong economy without a strong university sector, warns VC<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/122612/original/image-20160516-12583-1nmdegz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">University graduates are vital to creating new jobs, technologies and industries.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">from www.shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The following is an edited extract taken from a speech by Barney Glover at the Futureproof 2016 conference in Sydney on 16 May, around the essential role of universities in shaping the Australian economy.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>We are in a very different place than we were three years ago.</p>
<p>During the 2013 election campaign, I think it is fair to say that neither side of politics made higher education, nor for that matter research, a particularly prominent issue. Each of them went to that poll with relatively modest detail in their policy platforms.</p>
<p>And yet, during the last parliamentary term, we witnessed perhaps the greatest divergence for quite some time in the views of the two major parties on their policy objectives for higher education.</p>
<p>Having <a href="https://theconversation.com/federal-budget-2016-education-experts-react-58592">withdrawn their plans </a>for the full deregulation of student fees in the recent budget, the Coalition has now floated a <a href="https://docs.education.gov.au/documents/driving-innovation-fairness-and-excellence-australian-education">series of policy options</a> for consultation. </p>
<p>However, cuts of $2.5 billion remain in the budget papers from 2018 onwards.</p>
<p>Labor, meanwhile, is heading to this election with the most detailed higher education policy framework produced by an opposition in quite a while. </p>
<p>Despite the detail, there are still elements of their position that warrant discussion. </p>
<p>The sector well remembers that Labor in government also made sizeable cuts. Their current policy, however, pledges an increase on current funding levels.</p>
<p>Whatever the election outcome, Universities Australia will test proposed shifts from current policy settings against the major policy statement we launched late last year - <a href="https://www.universitiesaustralia.edu.au/news/policy-papers/Keep-it-Clever--Policy-Statement-2016#.VzkWEfl96Uk">Keep It Clever</a>. </p>
<p>It called for sustainable and sustained public investment in universities, measures to lift industry-research collaboration, and policies that will enable us to help Australia meet the workforce needs of the future.</p>
<p>It is on the theme of economic transition where the views of both major parties converge; an idea that has dominated the political landscape in recent times.</p>
<h2>What does economic transition require?</h2>
<p>Let’s think about the challenge of how we move from an economy heavily reliant on mining and construction to one in which skills and knowledge become our most precious commodities. </p>
<p>That task simply cannot be achieved without a strong university sector; one that produces a highly skilled workforce and generates new jobs and new industries to replace the ones that are disappearing.</p>
<p>And yet, how clearly does the Australian public see that direct connection between universities and prosperity? In people’s busy lives, they don’t always join those dots.</p>
<p>We want to remind all Australians - and all candidates and political parties - of the enormous contribution that universities make to almost every aspect of Australia’s economic and social wellbeing.</p>
<p>Many Australians would know that Australia’s university researchers and graduates were <a href="https://theconversation.com/five-ways-science-can-lead-the-innovation-debate-50838">responsible for inventions</a> such as the Cochlear implant, and that they contributed to the development of Wifi at CSIRO, the realisation of the ground-breaking cervical cancer vaccine, Gardasil and many others.</p>
<p>But what may not be so top of mind is how a high-quality university system touches their lives in so many other ways. </p>
<p>The highly-skilled teachers in their child’s primary school classroom? Educated at a university. The doctor who treats their elderly parent? Educated at a university. The engineer who designed the bridge they drive over safely every day. The forensic scientist who helps solve crimes and makes their communities safer. The IT programmers who engineered the technology in their smartphone. </p>
<p>The people who designed banking security systems to keep their money safe. The people who came up with GPS, who keep planes in the sky, and the plant scientists who are developing more drought-resistant crops. All university educated.</p>
<p>University graduates are vital to creating new jobs, new technologies, and new industries. Many of them also save lives, lift wellbeing, and enrich our community. A strong university sector creates benefits for all Australians.</p>
<h2>40% of jobs predicted to disappear in ten years’ time</h2>
<p>According to last year’s, <a href="http://www.fya.org.au/2015/08/23/the-new-work-order-report/">New Work Order report</a>, “70% of young Australians currently enter the workforce in jobs that will be radically affected by automation”.</p>
<p>Over the next ten to 15 years alone, the report estimates that 40% of existing jobs will disappear.</p>
<p>For people entering the workforce now, the notion of a linear career narrative or even steady progression is over. </p>
<p>Young people are expected to have an average of 17 different occupations over the course of their working lives.</p>
<p>Universities will be even more essential to help people reskill, upskill and reinvent their jobs.</p>
<h2>University graduates create jobs for non graduates</h2>
<p>Disruption is not a distant rumble. It is upon us.</p>
<p>Although no one can be completely future proofed from the negative aspects of unforeseen and seismic change, Australia’s universities provide our students with the critical thinking, problem solving skills, knowledge and adaptability to help them, not only cope with such change, but lead and excel.</p>
<p>And it is not only our graduates who benefit.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.universitiesaustralia.edu.au/Media-and-Events/media-releases/-The-graduate-effect---having-more-graduates-grows-jobs-and-wages#.VzkhHpN95Bw">Modelling</a> by economic consultants Cadence Economics highlights the role of universities in increasing the number of jobs and lifting the wages and living standards of Australians and the Australian economy overall.</p>
<p>It shows that for every 1,000 university graduates who enter the Australian workforce, 120 new jobs are created for people without university degrees.</p>
<p>The analysis also finds that having more graduates in the economy lifts the wages of workers who do not have degrees, by $655 a year or $12.60 a week.</p>
<p>Australia cannot achieve an economic transition without a strong university sector.</p>
<h2>Budget “savings” impossible to accept</h2>
<p>We’ve seen in the government’s implementation of several of the major recommendations of the Watt Review that policy evolution is possible. </p>
<p>Changes to block grants and the infusion of the National Innovation and Science Agenda with structures to facilitate deeper collaboration with industry are further indications of the possibilities of progressive reform, if targeted at the right areas, and if properly resourced.</p>
<p>In contrast, other reforms and adjustments rationalised as “savings” in the context of the budget are impossible to accept, namely the $2.5 billion in cuts.</p>
<p>The cut of $152 million from the Higher Education Participation and Partnerships (HEPP) programme was also disappointing for an initiative that is so critical in improving access to higher education for people from disadvantaged and marginalised backgrounds. </p>
<p>As was the <a href="https://theconversation.com/innovation-in-learning-and-teaching-is-too-important-to-cut-58629">abolition of the Office for Learning and Teaching</a>, a program that drove innovation and excellence in teaching, which is vital to student retention and satisfaction.</p>
<p>Fortunately, the budget also included some positive announcements for higher education; such as the reversal of the efficiency dividend, originally applied in 2014, on programs where legislation has not been passed. </p>
<p>The allocation of $10 million for the Tertiary Education Quality and Standards Agency (TEQSA) and $8 million to improve the Quality Indicators for Learning and Teaching (QILT) website were welcome additions.</p>
<p>Australia’s universities rate relatively highly by international standards but that standing is not to be taken for granted; particularly not when competitor nations are investing at a far greater scale and rate than we are in this critically important economic driver.</p>
<p>• <em>The full speech can be <a href="https://www.universitiesaustralia.edu.au/Media-and-Events/media-releases/Universities-are-essential-to-economic-transition#.VzkYjZN95Bx">read here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/59450/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Barney Glover is chair of Universities Australia and vice chancellor of Western Sydney University. </span></em></p>Over the next ten years, 40% of jobs are predicted to disappear. Universities will be essential to helping people reskill, upskill and reinvent their jobs.Barney Glover, Vice-Chancellor, Western Sydney UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/231372014-02-12T19:33:51Z2014-02-12T19:33:51ZWhat the departure of Toyota, Holden and Ford really means for workers<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/41355/original/xjyp9t69-1392201158.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The impact of job loss on car industry workers is multifaceted, and those arguing 'better jobs' will emerge could be fooling themselves.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Julian Smith/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>People change jobs constantly, and the jobs lost in car manufacturing closures are insignificant in the context of total job changes - no different to everyday job changes. So say some commentators opining on the end of car manufacturing in Australia. The problem is, they’re wrong.</p>
<p>In reality, car industry job losses will be concentrated in particular localities and particular occupations at particular times, creating concentrated pools of workers with similar skills and experiences vying against each other for the relatively narrow range of jobs that suit their skills and experiences. This creates a long job queue that will take a long time to disperse. </p>
<p>Only the most highly skilled and well-connected among the job losers will find work in jobs that use their existing skill complements. There’s often a loss of skill, a loss of income in the period between job loss and eventual reemployment, and lifetime income reduction as a consequence of starting again at the bottom rung in a new occupation. </p>
<p>A small number of workers will flourish and do better than in their previous job; this was the case with about 2% of clothing workers but perhaps 20% of Ansett workers, for example. The concentrated nature of these job losses demands intervention to minimise adverse social impacts.</p>
<p>Potentially, job losses include not only the workers who are directly affected in car and component manufacturing plants but also workers in all those firms that supply those plants, from accountants to engineering consultants to cleaners, not to mention the local stores, lunch bars and services that workers buy with their wages. </p>
<p>The numbers of businesses that rely on auto-related work is much larger now than it was in the 1980s after tariff cuts because in the 1980s restructuring for “lean” production outsourced non-core activities. Some submissions to the Productivity Commission last year put these employment “multipliers” at 4.4 in South Australia, suggesting that for every 1,000 car maker jobs lost, 4,400 other jobs will disappear. In Detroit, the automotive multiplier effect has been estimated at 3.6. Note that the Productivity Commission rejected the multiplier effects argument as a justification for industry assistance, but based that conclusion on the questionable authority of a staff research paper. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/41358/original/y2n94vvv-1392202048.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/41358/original/y2n94vvv-1392202048.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41358/original/y2n94vvv-1392202048.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41358/original/y2n94vvv-1392202048.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41358/original/y2n94vvv-1392202048.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41358/original/y2n94vvv-1392202048.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41358/original/y2n94vvv-1392202048.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">With the departure of any major industry player comes the demise of support businesses, like this one at a former Ansett terminal.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Julian Smith/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Which workers will be hardest hit?</h2>
<p>Workers who lose their jobs at a time of economic expansion fare much better than those who lose their jobs in a recession, when vacancies are scarce. The Mitsubishi and Ansett airlines workers, for example, fared better in the longer term than automotive workers who lost their jobs in the tariff-reduction related restructuring during the 1990-92 recession. </p>
<p>It would be helpful if policymakers tried to manage closure dates to avoid automotive job losses occurring at the same time as anticipated job losses in mining construction. At a minimum, the government needs to negotiate to ensure that Holden, Ford and Toyota close at different times. If Ford closed in 2016, Holden in 2017 and Toyota in 2018, the labour market would have longer to sift out with fewer casualties.</p>
<p>The employment prospects of automotive workers who are over 45 year of age are bleak regardless of their skills. Those with poor English language skills will also face considerable challenges. Policy interventions need to be sensitive to established social structures, and not assume that workers will be in position to find jobs outside an expected stereotypical range.</p>
<p>Retrenched workers that live in neighbourhoods with large numbers of unemployed workers – that is, in automotive sector feeder suburbs – will have poorer outcomes in the longer term. Younger workers without dependents or financial commitments are likely to relocate, but those with teenage children or a working spouse will face insurmountable barriers to relocation. Some marriages will end as the need to work wins out over family. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/41356/original/62m2nwps-1392201396.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/41356/original/62m2nwps-1392201396.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41356/original/62m2nwps-1392201396.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41356/original/62m2nwps-1392201396.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41356/original/62m2nwps-1392201396.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41356/original/62m2nwps-1392201396.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41356/original/62m2nwps-1392201396.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Abandoned factories are a byproduct of the demise of Australian manufacturing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In previous large-scale retrenchments, housing prices have fallen in the most severely affected neighbourhoods as housing demand stalls. Those who relocate will realise a financial loss. In addition to the costs of relocation, moving to a location where jobs are more plentiful is likely to involve higher housing costs. Costs aside, people with strong community links are disinclined to relocate and will accept diminished occupational status instead. This outcome is a loss to the nation.</p>
<p>Those workers who are financially secure or who have a spouse in full-time work can usually afford to wait for an opportunity that maximises their use of skills and accords with their interests. Those in financial stress will have no option but to take any job that provides income. But careers have trajectories and the “any job” option is not the best option for sustaining a career. </p>
<p>Social security rules – on assets and savings - are going to penalise those former autoworkers that have saved and invested; while former colleagues who lived from week to week will qualify for full if meagre benefits. Free financial counselling for autoworkers before they finish work would help them know their position and negotiate with financial institutions regarding mortgages and loans.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/41359/original/z29csfdt-1392202356.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/41359/original/z29csfdt-1392202356.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41359/original/z29csfdt-1392202356.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41359/original/z29csfdt-1392202356.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41359/original/z29csfdt-1392202356.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41359/original/z29csfdt-1392202356.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41359/original/z29csfdt-1392202356.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Some Ansett workers were able to find better jobs, but others did not fare as well.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dan Peled/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Facing up to harsh realities</h2>
<p>While policymakers like to imagine that workers in “transitional” labour markets are accustomed to and comfortable with job change, in fact there will be significant numbers of mostly loyal and long-serving workers for whom job loss is going to trigger a significant personal crisis, perhaps leading to suicide. </p>
<p>The circumstances of the retrenchment have a lasting impact on the outcomes of mass job losses. In a nutshell, those people who believe that they have been mistreated or singled out in some way have significantly poorer outcomes. Dramatic and unexpected shutdowns and lock-outs actively produce poorer outcomes, especially for people who took out a loan the week before the event. The longer the warning of impending closure, the more time people have to adjust to the idea and plan for new circumstances before they have to cope with the reality. </p>
<p>The people most at risk – as the case of Ansett airlines demonstrated – are those who view their workplace as a family and rely on workmates for social interaction. A second highly vulnerable group are employers in failing small firms who feel responsible for their workforce and carry the weight of failure. Sadly, loyalty and commitment puts workers at more risk. In the Ansett case, self-help groups of former workmates were useful. The establishment of automotive “men’s sheds” in affected suburbs would provide a venue for maintaining attachments and connecting to support services. </p>
<p>The adjustment has already started. The most able workers are going to be headhunted or will find better jobs quite quickly. If they are replaced, the replacement will be of a lower calibre. By the time of closure, remaining workers are likely to be less attractive to employers. </p>
<p>Some component manufacturers will be searching to reorient their businesses and develop export markets, but many others will be working out ways to transfer the wealth held in their business to their personal accounts and then exit for the least cost. As component suppliers exit, supply chains will be disrupted. But lots of small closures are better in labour market terms than three major events, so this process has its benefits. </p>
<p>People who lose their jobs unexpectedly are likely to take about six weeks to come to terms with their situation; during that time many will feel paralysed and unable to search for work effectively. Between six weeks and six months the more employable among the workforce will have found work, although often in less skilled jobs. Between six and twelve months the likelihood of finding work diminishes quickly, although percentages are boosted by the reemployment of affluent higher skilled workers who take longer to find and commence suitable work. After a year the chances of finding work are poor and people tend to leave the workforce, often permanently. In short, the employment impacts of unemployment get worse over time (this is called hysteresis), which is the reason why the metaphor of “recovery” from job loss, as though it was an illness, is usually misplaced. </p>
<h2>Is retraining a panacea?</h2>
<p>Retraining is a policy intervention with well documented benefits. But the options for retraining are not the same now as they were in the 1990s. The TAFE system is much diminished and those training for less skilled jobs would incur high costs unless there is ample assistance. People who have been out of the education system for a long time will need introductory preparatory courses before they can tackle skill retraining. </p>
<p>In the case of clothing workers, two years in retraining for low level vocational skills did not improve employment prospects but instead separated former workers from the labour market. The best retraining outcomes are achieved by workers who are able to turn a pre-existing hobby into a vocation (horse-training and scuba-diving, for example) and those who can upgrade existing skills at tertiary level. </p>
<p>Crucially, if retraining is to build on workers’ pre-existing skills, then it should not be targeted in “skills-in-demand” areas. Experience shows that taking groups of retrenched workers and training them all in the same occupation (security guard, forklift driver) puts them exactly where they started: competing with each other for a small number of jobs.</p>
<h2>Has anyone seen the ‘better jobs’?</h2>
<p>Some commentators have characterised the car industry closures as unleashing a round of creative destruction that will drive the growth of new industries and create new jobs. For that to be true, it is necessary to assume that existing investments in the car industry somehow inhibit the growth of other “better” opportunities. This is bunkum: if there were investment opportunities in these other sectors, the investments would have happened regardless of the automotive sector. In fact, spillover arguments would suggest such investments are now less likely without the critical mass of the automotive sector. </p>
<p>There is currently no obvious new job generator in the Australian economy except for domestic construction and infrastructure projects. This does not bode well for the future in Victoria and South Australia.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/23137/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sally Weller's work on retrenchment outcomes in the clothing and airlines industries was funded by the Australian Research Council and the Victorian Government. In 2002 she contributed to the Howard government's redundancy policy and in 2004 she provided background material for the ACTU's test case on redundancy and termination. </span></em></p>People change jobs constantly, and the jobs lost in car manufacturing closures are insignificant in the context of total job changes - no different to everyday job changes. So say some commentators opining…Sally Weller, Australian Research Council Future Fellow, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.