tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/roadmap-39046/articlesRoadmap – The Conversation2021-10-05T19:07:52Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1690912021-10-05T19:07:52Z2021-10-05T19:07:52ZWill COVID vaccinations be mandatory for places of worship? It could depend what state you’re in<p>Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, places of worship in Australia have faced significant restrictions. These have included limits on the number of people who can attend, bans on singing and closure altogether.</p>
<p>This has impinged upon people’s freedom of religion. However, as with other COVID restrictions, religious people have generally accepted these restrictions to protect public health. </p>
<p>Now, there may be light at the end of the tunnel for religious institutions, including allowances for certain numbers of unvaccinated people to attend places of worship. But since the states and territories will set their own re-opening rules for public venues, religious leaders still face uncertainty. </p>
<p>If places of worship remain barred from allowing entry to the unvaccinated in some places, religious leaders may be forced to turn them away, putting them in an uncomfortable position. </p>
<p>This brings up an interesting legal question about how to balance freedom of religion against public health protections. </p>
<h2>How are NSW and Victoria handling it?</h2>
<p>At 70% full vaccination for adults, places of worship in NSW will be able to open for vaccinated people, with certain restrictions on capacity, and no singing. </p>
<p>Once the vaccination rate reaches 80%, however, the unvaccinated will be able to attend public worship, with the same capacity limitations. </p>
<p>They will not be allowed into other public venues, such as restaurants, stores, hairdressers or gyms, until December 1 at the earliest. And the government has <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/sydneys-unvaccinated-warned-social-isolation-when-lockdown-ends-2021-09-28/">warned</a> businesses may continue to restrict access for those who are unvaccinated.</p>
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<p>Victoria has taken a <a href="https://www.coronavirus.vic.gov.au/victorias-roadmap">different approach</a>. At the 70% full vaccination rate, places of worship will be able to hold outdoors services with a cap of 50 vaccinated people, at one person per four square metres. If the vaccination status of attendees is unknown, the attendance cap will be 20. </p>
<p>At 80% full vaccination, indoor worship will be permitted for the fully vaccinated with a cap of 150 and social distancing. </p>
<p>Outdoors worship will be allowed for up to 500 vaccinated people. If the vaccination status of worshippers is unknown, the 20-person cap and one-person-per-four-square-metre rule will remain.</p>
<p>It remains to be seen how the other states and territories will handle these decisions when they release their reopening plans.</p>
<h2>Why can the unvaccinated go to church but not the footy?</h2>
<p>The NSW government has not given an official reason for opening churches, mosques and temples to the unvaccinated, but not entertainment or sports venues. </p>
<p>The likely reason is freedom of religion.</p>
<p>Many religions involve an element of communal worship and public gathering. COVID restrictions have significantly restricted these practices. In fact, public gatherings have been completely banned under strict stay-at-home orders. As a result, many religions have moved to <a href="https://theconversation.com/religious-groups-are-embracing-technology-during-the-lockdown-but-can-it-replace-human-connection-135682">online or streaming-based worship</a>.</p>
<p>Freedom of religion is well recognised in international law as a fundamental human right. Article 18 of the UN’s <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/professionalinterest/pages/ccpr.aspx#:%7E:text=Article%2018&text=This%20right%20shall%20include%20freedom,%2C%20observance%2C%20practice%20and%20teaching.">International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights</a> says freedom of religion includes the right</p>
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<p>to have or to adopt a religion or belief of his choice, and freedom, either individually or in community with others and in public or private, to manifest his religion or belief in worship, observance, practice and teaching.</p>
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<p>But there are limits to this freedom. The same covenant says freedom of religion</p>
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<p>may be subject only to such limitations as are prescribed by law and are necessary to protect public safety, order, health, or morals or the fundamental rights and freedoms of others.</p>
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<p>There is a big question, then, for state premiers as they begin to lift COVID restrictions: to what extent are the restrictions on religion necessary to protect public health?</p>
<p>Because views about which COVID restrictions are necessary to protect public health have varied significantly across states and territories, we should expect different approaches to the re-opening of places of public worship. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-blood-of-jesus-is-my-vaccine-how-a-fringe-group-of-christians-hijacks-faith-in-a-war-against-science-165236">'The blood of Jesus is my vaccine': how a fringe group of Christians hijacks faith in a war against science</a>
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<h2>Few challenges to vaccination rules</h2>
<p>This could cause confusion, but it is unlikely we’d see many legal challenges to different re-opening plans. </p>
<p>In Australia, there are few avenues to challenge restrictions on freedom of religion. The <a href="http://classic.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s116.html">constitution</a> prohibits the federal government from making laws to prohibit the free exercise of religion. However, COVID restrictions are imposed by state and territory governments. The freedom of religion provision in the constitution does not apply. </p>
<p>As such, the main legal protections for freedom of religion in Australia are religious exemptions and anti-discrmination law. </p>
<p>There are a few <a href="https://theconversation.com/who-cant-have-a-covid-vaccine-and-how-do-i-get-a-medical-exemption-168371">medical exceptions</a> available for people who cannot get a COVID vaccine, but it is highly unlikely exemptions would be given to those who object to vaccination on religious grounds. </p>
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<p>There is currently <a href="https://www.scopus.com/record/display.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85040822618&origin=inward&txGid=01790e16cb7b310734d47c7e37730682">no religious exception</a> for childhood vaccination programs under the federal “no jab, no pay” and state “no jab, no play” policies. In the case of vaccines, religious freedom is <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-freedom-of-religion-wont-likely-trump-public-health-interests-with-a-future-covid-19-vaccine-145030">outweighed</a> by the need to protect public health. </p>
<p>Anti-discrmination law is also unlikely to provide an avenue to challenge vaccine mandates, passports or bans on unvaccinated people from places of worship. </p>
<p>In determining whether or not there has been discrimination, the courts will consider what is <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/here-s-why-no-jab-no-entry-is-not-discrimination-20210920-p58t2v.html">reasonable in the circumstances</a>. Given the very real and significant public health risk posed by COVID, it is likely restrictions on those who are not vaccinated will be considered reasonable – at least in the short term. </p>
<p>This may change if the health risk posed by COVID changes. </p>
<h2>Concern from religious leaders</h2>
<p>Some religious leaders have expressed concern about the new rules on reopening places of worship. As Bishop Paul Barker from the Anglican Diocese of Melbourne put it, the rules could turn those who don’t show proof of vaccination into “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-18/church-leaders-against-mandatory-vaccines-victoria/100468862">the lepers of Jesus’ day</a>”.</p>
<p>Religious leaders may be forced to turn the unvaccinated away. Such a position may be theologically very difficult for many religions. </p>
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<p>As Archbishop Anthony Fisher from the Catholic Diocese of Sydney <a href="https://7news.com.au/sunrise/on-the-show/religious-leaders-take-on-nsw-government-over-mandatory-vaccination-c-3947618">explained</a>, </p>
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<p>It’s our nature as churches to have our doors open to welcome all people. We have a commitment to that, so we’re talking to the government at the moment about how that’s going to work out. </p>
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<p>However, it is important to note that, with a few exceptions, religious leaders have generally be <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/religious-leaders-warn-faithful-against-vaccine-conspiracy-theories-20210803-p58ffv.html">supportive</a> of <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/dozens-of-multicultural-and-religious-leaders-gather-in-nsw-to-inspire-covid-19-vaccine-confidence/86362e42-04a6-4ad7-9c56-5c3019be26e9">vaccinations</a>.</p>
<h2>What does this say about freedom of religion in Australia?</h2>
<p>Australians enjoy a comparatively high level of freedom of religion. In the 2019 Pew Research Centre’s index on global restrictions on religion, Australia scored among the <a href="https://www.pewforum.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/7/2021/09/PF_09.30.21_religious.restrictions_AppendixA.pdf">least restrictive group of nations</a>.</p>
<p>This is despite the fact Australia does not have a national bill of rights, nor is discrimination on the basis of religion unlawful at the federal level. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australia-needs-a-religious-discrimination-act-105132">Why Australia needs a Religious Discrimination Act</a>
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<p>However, this does not mean Australia can be complacent. The lack of laws protecting freedom of religion means it falls to the political process to ensure this. This in turn depends on who is in power and the will of the majority. </p>
<p>In the same Pew report, Australia had a <a href="https://www.pewforum.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/7/2021/09/PF_09.30.21_religious.restrictions_AppendixB.pdf">moderate score on social hostility towards religion</a>. This means there is potential for greater legal restrictions to be introduced in the future. </p>
<p>The recognition of the need for religious freedom in the COVID re-opening roadmap is welcome. However, we must not lose sight of the fact that if the political process does not deliver legislated religious freedom, we have few legal avenues to challenge government restrictions when they do occur.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/169091/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Renae Barker is a Trustee for the Anglican Diocese of Bunbury </span></em></p>NSW and Victoria have taken different approaches on allowing unvaccinated people in places of worship, indicating the possibility for conflicting and confusing rules across the country.Renae Barker, Senior Lecturer, The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1682662021-09-22T01:24:43Z2021-09-22T01:24:43ZSoon you’ll need to be vaccinated to enjoy shops, cafes and events — but what about the staff there?<p>The New South Wales and Victorian governments have released detailed roadmaps outlining how they’ll ease restrictions across Sydney and Melbourne.</p>
<p>A feature of both roadmaps will be the requirement to be fully vaccinated to do certain things like gather with larger groups of friends or enter venues including hairdressers, hospitality, gyms and entertainment.</p>
<p>This raises several considerations, including whether staff have to be vaccinated, and how staff will check people’s COVID vaccination status, enforce the rules, and deal with abuse hurled at them by non-compliant customers. </p>
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<h2>How does it work overseas?</h2>
<p>In three major US cities — San Francisco, New Orleans, and New York City — you must be vaccinated to visit indoor public spaces like restaurants, cinemas and gyms. </p>
<p>In New York City, non-compliant businesses can get significant fines if they let in unvaccinated people, <a href="https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/news/2021/09/13/enforcement-for-proof-of-vaccination-at-nyc-businesses-begin">up to US$5,000</a> (A$6,900). </p>
<p>In France, people must be fully vaccinated (or have a negative COVID test, or be able to prove they’ve recovered from infection) to attend restaurants, bars, museums, cinemas and large public gatherings. A similar pass has been <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/26/covid-more-eu-states-restrict-venue-access-unvaccinated-people">introduced in Italy and Ireland</a>.</p>
<p>In comparison, the requirement for venues to check COVID vaccine status (or a negative test) in the UK is still currently left to <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-57819679">the discretion of the individual business</a>.</p>
<p>While details are yet to be provided about the implementation of this requirement in Australia, penalties may be included for businesses that refuse to comply. NSW Customer Service Minister Victor Dominello recently indicated NSW pub owners who refuse to check the vaccination status of customers <a href="https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/food/drink/penalties-foreshadowed-for-nsw-businesses-that-refuse-to-check-vaccination-status/news-story/0510f2d90a409612531da77745771fe6">could face heavy fines</a>.</p>
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<h2>Enforcing COVID rules comes with risk of abuse</h2>
<p>It’s lawful for a business to <a href="https://theconversation.com/if-you-dont-have-a-covid-vaccination-certificate-could-you-be-banned-from-restaurants-shops-and-theatres-162248">refuse entry</a> to people who don’t have a COVID certificate, in the same way they can refuse entry to an intoxicated person — to protect staff and the rest of the patrons.</p>
<p>Some people may feel aggrieved by the prospect of being excluded from businesses because they’re not vaccinated and assert this is “discriminatory”. However, they’re using the term in a colloquial rather than legal sense — vaccination status isn’t a protected attribute covered by discrimination law.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/if-you-dont-have-a-covid-vaccination-certificate-could-you-be-banned-from-restaurants-shops-and-theatres-162248">If you don't have a COVID vaccination certificate, could you be banned from restaurants, shops and theatres?</a>
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<p>Legal considerations aside, the practical issue of enforcement falls to businesses.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/17/nyregion/carmines-nyc-hostess-attacked.html">Recently in New York City</a>, a restaurant hostess was punched repeatedly after asking a group of patrons to show proof of vaccination.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/businesses-face-abuse-amid-confused-uk-policy-on-vaccine-checks/">In the UK</a>, some businesses have faced horrible abuse via social media for requiring evidence of COVID vaccination status from patrons, including death threats. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.vox.com/recode/22652766/service-workers-vaccine-passports-customers-mask-mandates">A survey of US service workers</a> conducted by One Fair Wage reported 80% had seen or experienced hostility including racism and sexual harassment from customers while enforcing public health rules during the pandemic. </p>
<h2>Staff left on their own to figure out enforcement</h2>
<p>In these situations, businesses have had to figure out how to enforce the requirements and how to respond to the angry customers who push back.</p>
<p>If they enforce the rules, they risk harassment and lost tips. But if they overlook unsafe customer behaviour, they risk further COVID transmission.</p>
<p>If these experiences are replicated in Australia, it will give rise to serious work health and safety issues for staff enforcing COVID mandates.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/could-a-france-style-vaccine-mandate-for-public-spaces-work-in-australia-legally-yes-but-its-complicated-165814">Could a France-style vaccine mandate for public spaces work in Australia? Legally, yes, but it's complicated</a>
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<p>Employers will need to take reasonably practicable steps to minimise the risk to staff from such abuse. This could include hiring security guards, or implementing duress protocols or training in de-escalation techniques. What’s reasonably practicable will vary with the nature and size of the business. Employers should consult with staff on the implementation of such measures. </p>
<p>Some employees or unions might also argue enforcement of COVID mandates falls outside the scope of their role, and should be done by properly trained security professionals.</p>
<p>Employers may need to expand the set of duties on job descriptions to include COVID mandate enforcement. </p>
<p>Such a contractual variation can’t be imposed by the employer unilaterally. Industrial instruments under the Fair Work Act such as enterprise agreements, might also restrict the ability of an employer to allocate enforcement duties to employees.</p>
<h2>Can staff be compelled to be vaccinated?</h2>
<p>As part of New York City’s vaccine mandate, staff members must also provide proof of vaccination. </p>
<p>In Australia, COVID vaccination is mandatory in some settings including for health and aged-care workers, and <a href="https://www.vba.vic.gov.au/news/news/2021/important-covid-19-update-mandatory-vaccination-for-construction-workers">construction workers in Victoria</a>. Beyond mandated industries, it will be at the discretion of the workplace as to whether they mandate the vaccine for their staff. </p>
<p>Outside of mandates, there are very limited settings in which an employer can require proof of vaccination and enforce that requirement. Most commonly this would be where an employer can demonstrate it’s a reasonably necessary step as part of COVID risk mitigation plans in the workplace.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.oaic.gov.au/privacy/covid-19/covid-19-vaccinations-and-my-privacy-rights-as-an-employee/">If state and territory public health orders</a> are passed requiring your employer to collect your vaccination status information and reasons for non-vaccination, you may be required to provide your employer with your reasons or medical evidence exempting you from vaccination. </p>
<h2>Supporting organisations</h2>
<p>Before an organisation starts to check a person’s COVID status, it’s critical the government is clear and transparent about what they’re trying to achieve and how asking for the status will help achieve this outcome.</p>
<p>A requirement for an employee to show proof of vaccination won’t ultimately be enforceable without a proper justification. It must be lawful and reasonable. </p>
<p>To support businesses and their staff members, it’s critical to:</p>
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<li><p>ensure staff have a clear understanding of the requirements and have the tools to support their introduction, such as signage, FAQs, and a template for implementation</p></li>
<li><p>develop a written implementation plan in collaboration with staff members, including how vaccination status will be checked. There must also be clear guidance about how to consider valid exemptions to the COVID vaccine requirement for people who are unable to have the vaccine for medical reasons</p></li>
<li><p>train designated staff to be responsible for checking proof of vaccination</p></li>
<li><p>have visible signage outlining the requirements to customers, available in multiple languages</p></li>
<li><p>give guidance around identifying fake vaccines cards</p></li>
<li><p>have a system in place for controlling crowding at your front door, such as a clearly delineated line, if patrons get backed up while waiting for proof of vaccination check.</p></li>
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<p><em>The author would like to thank Michael Byrnes, partner at Swaab Attorneys, for his contributions to this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/168266/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Holly Seale is an investigator on research studies funded by NHMRC and has previously received funding for investigator driven research from NSW Ministry of Health, as well as from Sanofi Pasteur and Seqirus. She is the Deputy Chair of the Collaboration on Social Science and Immunisation.</span></em></p>If staff enforce the rules, they risk harassment and lost tips. But if they overlook unsafe behaviour, they risk further COVID transmission.Holly Seale, Associate professor, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1467562020-09-23T06:56:43Z2020-09-23T06:56:43ZDaniel Andrews has flagged a quicker easing of Melbourne’s restrictions. But cases are still in the ‘red zone’<p>Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/victoria-records-15-new-coronavirus-cases-five-deaths-20200923-p55y94.html">flagged on Wednesday</a> that metropolitan Melbourne’s restrictions could be eased further than initially planned on Monday September 28.</p>
<p>The 14-day average of daily new cases has fallen to <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/victoria-records-15-new-coronavirus-cases-five-deaths-20200923-p55y94.html">29.4</a>. This is below the 30 to 50 required for the second step of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/slow-and-steady-exit-from-lockdown-as-victorian-government-sets-sights-on-covid-normal-christmas-145558">roadmap out of restrictions</a>, planned for 11:59pm this Sunday.</p>
<p>Andrews wouldn’t confirm which restrictions will be eased, but from an outbreak-management perspective, we should be cautious about easing anything too quickly.</p>
<p>It would be a huge shame to see Victorians’ pain and sacrifices undone, and I hope the restrictions will be eased early based on epidemiological advice, rather than mounting political pressure.</p>
<h2>Fortnightly average still in the ‘red zone’</h2>
<p>The 14-day case average of 29.4 is based on the new cases announced each day, though sometimes cases are reclassified later on. According to my corrected data, the new case average is 30. Either way, it’s a vast improvement compared with the peak in early August when the 14-day average reached over 460.</p>
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<p>Nevertheless, the current figure is still in the “red zone” of more than 100 cumulative cases in the past fortnight, where cases can spiral out of control if restrictions are eased too suddenly.</p>
<p>Ideally, the most significant easing of restrictions would only happen when the 14-day average hits the “green zone” of fewer than five cases, which is currently planned for October 26.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-south-wales-on-a-knife-edge-as-cumulative-coronavirus-case-numbers-spiral-into-the-red-zone-143608">New South Wales on a knife edge as cumulative coronavirus case numbers spiral into the 'red zone'</a>
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<p>It’s risky to relax too soon, because there are still many “mystery cases” for which the source of infection is unknown. Victoria’s Deputy Chief Health Officer Allen Cheng <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/coronavirus-updates-live-cases-worldwide-pass-31-million-death-toll-from-covid-19-passes-966-0000-20200923-p55y8q.html">confirmed</a> these mystery cases are currently spread across 18 local government areas. He said:</p>
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<p>Most of those are still in the areas where we are concerned […] Each local government area has a relatively small number of cases and I guess it does reflect that there has been community transmission out there.</p>
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<p>These areas include Casey in Melbourne’s southeast, and Brimbank and Hume in the city’s northwest.</p>
<p>I would be very cautious about easing restrictions ahead of schedule when there are still mystery cases. There is likely still some community transmission that is yet to be detected by contact tracers. </p>
<p>Cheng added, however, that if the number of mystery cases continues to decline, this would give confidence there has been minimal further community transmission.</p>
<p>The early easing of restrictions could be justified if the new cases are within known risk groups and we are confident that the risk has been contained.</p>
<h2>Curfew to stay</h2>
<p>Andrews confirmed he <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/coronavirus-updates-live-cases-worldwide-pass-31-million-death-toll-from-covid-19-passes-966-0000-20200923-p55y8q.html">wouldn’t yet budge</a> on the nightly curfew, which has been subject to intense questioning by journalists and commentators, and criticism from <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-15/melbourne-business-launches-legal-action-over-curfew-lockdown/12666444">some members of the public</a>.</p>
<p>From an outbreak-management perspective this is the right approach. The curfew has several aims, one of which is to restrict the movement of younger people. Younger people have been disproportionately COVID-positive during Victoria’s second wave. Younger adults tend to be more socially connected, have more daily contacts with one another, and often work at several workplaces. All these factors increase the chances of acquiring and transmitting COVID-19.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/covid-19-cases-are-highest-in-young-adults-we-need-to-partner-with-them-for-the-health-of-the-whole-community-144932">COVID-19 cases are highest in young adults. We need to partner with them for the health of the whole community</a>
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<h2>Aged care still a risk</h2>
<p>There’s an ongoing risk to Victoria’s case numbers from residential aged care. If the virus continues to circulate in aged care, it poses a risk to residents and staff, and might also escape to the wider community via infected staff.</p>
<p>Aged-care homes must provide adequate personal protective equipment. There have been <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-23/victoria-nurse-caught-coronavirus-wore-surgical-mask-aged-care/12686750">concerns among staff</a> that surgical masks are not enough to prevent contracting COVID-19. The World Health Organisation does recommend a surgical mask and face shield, but this <a href="https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/technical-guidance-publications?publicationtypes=d198f134-5eed-400d-922e-1ac06462e676">requires</a> a minimum safe airflow change in rooms to prevent exhaled infectious particles from hanging in the air and causing airborne spread.</p>
<p>Scientists believe most transmission occurs through droplets, but poorly ventilated environments might explain the increased risk of <a href="https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/WHO-2019-nCoV-IPC-2020.4">airborne spread</a> in confined spaces.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/is-the-airborne-route-a-major-source-of-coronavirus-transmission-141198">Is the airborne route a major source of coronavirus transmission?</a>
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<p>Most residential aged-care facilities will not be able to meet the safe level of room airflow of <a href="https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/technical-guidance-publications?publicationtypes=d198f134-5eed-400d-922e-1ac06462e676">40-80 litres per second</a> per resident.</p>
<p>Therefore, in situations where airflow is not adequate, surgical masks should be replaced with respirator masks, such as N95 or P2 masks, to prevent staff acquiring the virus at work.</p>
<p>It’s likely that transmission in aged care homes will continue if this issue isn’t addressed. The issue of poor airflow could also apply to other workplaces like abattoirs, factories and shared office spaces. Going forward, they too should consider the risk of airborne spread.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/146756/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mary-Louise McLaws is affiliated with World Health Organization Health Emergencies Programme Ad Hoc COVID-19 Infection Prevention and Control Guidance Development Group </span></em></p>The premier said Melbourne’s restrictions could be eased more than expected on Monday. But from an outbreak-management perspective, we should be careful of easing too soon.Mary-Louise McLaws, Professor of Epidemiology Healthcare Infection and Infectious Diseases Control, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1462032020-09-15T07:22:03Z2020-09-15T07:22:03ZOn the road to COVID normal: the easing of regional Victoria’s restrictions signals hope for Melbourne too<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/358057/original/file-20200915-20-1uexuuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=38%2C0%2C4242%2C2819&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>From 11.59pm tomorrow (September 16), regional Victoria will take the <a href="https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/statement-premier-59">third step</a> out of COVID-19 restrictions, Premier Daniel Andrews announced today.</p>
<p>According to the <a href="https://www.vic.gov.au/coronavirus-covid-19-reopening-roadmap-regional-victoria">roadmap</a> revealed last weekend, the move to step 3 in regional Victoria could happen when the daily average number of cases for the previous 14 days was less than five, and there were zero community cases without a known source for 14 days.</p>
<p>Regional Victoria actually reached the 14-day moving average target on September 10, with <a href="https://www.covid19data.com.au/victoria">4.5</a>, and by today the average had dropped to 3.6. They were just waiting to hit the mystery cases target.</p>
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<p>Among the restrictions to be eased under step 3, up to ten people will be allowed to gather outdoors, and hospitality venues will be able to open again for sit-down service. Beauty salons and hairdressers will also reopen, and people who live in regional Victoria will be able to travel to other regional areas in the state.</p>
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<h2>Heading in the right direction</h2>
<p>This easing of restrictions is undoubtedly good news for regional Victoria. But it’s also reason for people in Melbourne to be optimistic. </p>
<p>Certainly, regional Victoria and metropolitan Melbourne are quite different in terms of the epidemiology of their respective second waves. But the targets set out in the roadmap do appear to be achievable. </p>
<p>The 14-day moving average of daily case numbers for Melbourne is currently at <a href="https://www.covid19data.com.au/victoria">52.9</a>, and needs to drop below 50 to reach the target for step 2. </p>
<p>Based on my modelling of the 14-day moving average, Melbourne could reach this target as early as Thursday. </p>
<p>This model takes the 14-day moving average for the last 30 days, and it assumes the continuing downward trend is exponentially decreasing. That is, it plots a slow downward curve that approaches zero.</p>
<p>The target to move to step 3 is a 14-day moving average of fewer than five cases per day statewide. A similar modelling strategy shows this is likely to occur on about October 22.</p>
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<h2>Save the date (or don’t)</h2>
<p>Notably, there was no date set for the move to step 3 in regional Victoria, which is very different to the <a href="https://www.vic.gov.au/node/13322">roadmap</a> set out for metropolitan Melbourne. </p>
<p>In Melbourne, the second step is not due to occur until September 28, and the third step not until October 26 – and only then if case numbers have dropped below designated thresholds.</p>
<p>The key question for the Victorian government is whether to stick to this time frame, or allow for an earlier move to the second and third steps if Melbourne achieves the moving average targets ahead of time.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/victorias-path-out-of-covid-19-lockdown-quick-reference-guides-145674">Victoria's path out of COVID-19 lockdown – quick reference guides</a>
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<p>In a recent <a href="https://theconversation.com/4-perspectives-on-how-victoria-should-exit-stage-4-lockdown-145448">article</a> on The Conversation, I called for a more nuanced approach to lifting restrictions. In other words, the government shouldn’t be too rigid with the roadmap.</p>
<p>The people of Victoria have been asked to make enormous sacrifices to get the outbreak under control, and it’s working. I believe the Victorian government should be willing to reward Melburnians by moving to the third step when they reach the relevant case threshold, regardless of the date.</p>
<h2>What now?</h2>
<p>It’s essential that over the next few weeks, Melbourne residents continue to stick to the restrictions, to help hit the targets as soon as possible. </p>
<p>The numbers of COVID-19 tests has dropped off in the past few days, averaging about <a href="https://www.covid19data.com.au/victoria">14,000</a> tests a day. With the lower number of cases and fewer people with respiratory symptoms now winter is over, this is not really surprising. But it’s vital high rates of testing continue, with a focus on hotspot areas, such as the <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/new-covid-19-hotspot-emerges-in-melbourne-s-south-east-20200914-p55vj1.html">Casey local government area</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/slow-and-steady-exit-from-lockdown-as-victorian-government-sets-sights-on-covid-normal-christmas-145558">'Slow and steady' exit from lockdown as Victorian government sets sights on 'COVID-normal' Christmas</a>
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<p>As for regional Victoria, people there must also stick to the remaining restrictions. This will give them the best chance of moving towards step 4 and beyond.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Esterman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Andrews government has announced regional Victoria will move to step 3 of the roadmap towards COVID normal from tomorrow night.Adrian Esterman, Professor of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of South AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1456872020-09-08T20:08:38Z2020-09-08T20:08:38ZWorried you might test positive and put a spanner in Victoria’s COVID roadmap? Here’s why you should get tested anyway<p>Victoria’s much-anticipated <a href="https://theconversation.com/victorias-path-out-of-covid-19-lockdown-quick-reference-guides-145674">roadmap</a> out of lockdown was <a href="https://theconversation.com/slow-and-steady-exit-from-lockdown-as-victorian-government-sets-sights-on-covid-normal-christmas-145558">released on Sunday</a>, bringing with it a clear outline of how (and provisionally when) Victoria will see an easing of restrictions. </p>
<p>The plan is transparent about the case numbers, or lack of them, required for the state to move to each progressive stage. For example, moving to the second step, provisionally scheduled for September 28, will require an average of 30-50 new cases per day over a 14-day period. </p>
<p>Victorians are suffering from lockdown fatigue. They’re exhausted and drained. The reopening of playgrounds, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-the-covid-bubble-concept-and-could-it-work-in-australia-144938">singles bubble</a>, shortening the curfew, and an extra hour of daily exercise are all gestures to keep them going during this difficult time. But many people are still desperate for the lockdown to end.</p>
<p>Lockdown won’t be over until the number of positive cases falls. And there’s a risk that a desire to end restrictions might discourage Victorians from getting tested, for fear of adding to the numbers and prolonging the lockdown.</p>
<h2>Not getting tested?</h2>
<p>The way society views an illness affects how people who have it or might have it <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3322940/">feel and behave</a>. Since the beginning of the pandemic, terms such as “<a href="https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/local/uconn-health-rolls-out-drive-thru-sampling-for-covid-19/2243928/">COVID suspect</a>” or “<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-few-superspreaders-transmit-the-majority-of-coronavirus-cases-139950">superspreader</a>” have risked creating a sense of shame for those who contract the virus. </p>
<p>Those feeling unwell may not want to be seen as “part of the problem”. We know from other diseases, when there is stigma attached to being sick, people with symptoms are less <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0199602">likely to seek care</a>. No Victorian will want to be blamed for restrictions lasting any longer than they have to.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-children-and-teens-with-symptoms-should-get-a-covid-19-test-even-if-you-think-its-just-a-cough-142276">Why children and teens with symptoms should get a COVID-19 test, even if you think it's 'just a cough'</a>
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<h2>Testing is still vital</h2>
<p>Nevertheless, it is crucial people continue to get tested. Without this information, it will be impossible for the government to negotiate a safe path out of restrictions. Gaps in our knowledge could mean the decision-makers don’t have enough confidence to progress to the next step.</p>
<p>Analysts already know when there are gaps in our understanding. Earlier this week, evidence of the coronavirus was found in <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-05/covid-in-apollo-bay-victoria-wastewater/12633756">sewage from Apollo Bay</a>, about 200 kilometres southwest of Melbourne, despite no one in the area having tested positive. </p>
<p>Test results are just one piece of data — albeit a crucial one — that informs our understanding of the situation. Testing actually helps us move forward faster, not slower.</p>
<h2>How to encourage testing</h2>
<p>There are several ways to ensure the number of COVID-19 tests remains high. More than 2,403,388 tests have now been done in Victoria, <a href="https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-update">12,938 on Sunday</a>.</p>
<p><strong>1. Create a sense of pride in getting tested</strong></p>
<p>Obviously, low numbers of positive tests are good. But high numbers of negative tests are much more informative than no test results at all. Telling your friends you’ve been tested, or posting it on social media, should be a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-02/victoria-coroanvirus-test-100,000-end-lockdown/12206678">source of pride</a> that you’re doing your bit for Team Victoria.</p>
<p><strong>2. Remove the stigma and shame</strong></p>
<p>We should also work to remove the stigma of contracting COVID-19 — no one is catching it on purpose, after all. Campaigns such as <a href="https://www.heraldsun.com.au/coronavirus/melbourne-strong-famous-melburnians-share-their-messages-of-support/news-story/c360603698a07a1b08c2cd060f529cbf">Melbourne Strong</a> aim to help people who are struggling in lockdown, and we should extend this kind of support to those going through COVID-19 itself.</p>
<p><strong>3. Promote positive messaging</strong></p>
<p>It’s important to remember how far we’ve come since the peak of Victoria’s second wave. On July 30 there were 723 new cases; on Monday we had 41. We also now know the targets we need to hit to end the restrictions, and Premier Daniel Andrews has raised the <a href="https://www.3aw.com.au/premier-says-there-is-a-chance-victoria-could-reopen-sooner-than-road-map-suggests/">possibility they could even be lifted early</a>. Influential <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-asked-multicultural-communities-how-best-to-communicate-covid-19-advice-heres-what-they-told-us-142719">community messengers</a> can help reinforce this message of hope.</p>
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<p><strong>4. Make testing easier</strong></p>
<p>The Victorian government has tried to make testing as easy as possible, through measures such as <a href="https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/call-to-test-covid-19%20-">mobile testing</a>, <a href="https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/covid-19-worker-support-payment">incentive payments</a> and research into <a href="https://www.monash.edu/news/articles/breakthrough-blood-test-detects-positive-covid-19-result-in-20-minutes">faster tests</a>. They should also consider keeping information on wait times for different testing sites up to date, as for many places it is not currently available.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/goodbye-brain-scrapers-covid-19-tests-now-use-gentler-nose-swabs-144416">Goodbye, brain scrapers. COVID-19 tests now use gentler nose swabs</a>
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<p>There’s no easy road out of this pandemic, but now we have the roadmap and we know where we need to get to. So if you have COVID-19 symptoms, don’t hesitate to get tested. You’ll be doing yourself and the whole state a favour.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145687/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Breanna Wright does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>More testing will actually help us move forward faster. There are a few things we should do in Victoria to ensure the number of people getting tested for COVID-19 remains high.Breanna Wright, Research fellow, BehaviourWorks Australia, Monash Sustainable Development Institute, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1457232020-09-08T03:43:16Z2020-09-08T03:43:16ZVictoria’s roadmap out of lockdown is the wrong approach. Here’s what good public policy looks like<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356862/original/file-20200908-20-1rh7erd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=988%2C38%2C3320%2C3374&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">James Ross/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the early months of the pandemic, Australia’s public policy response to COVID-19 was widely celebrated across the world. The missteps and extended lockdowns in Victoria recently, though, shows how at least one state has slipped from being a gold standard.</p>
<p>So, what has gone wrong? </p>
<p>Effective public policy-making in a pandemic is enormously difficult. Very few countries around the world, if any, have had an exemplary record in the past few months. There are nonetheless a set of key principles that should underpin approaches to decision-making. </p>
<h2>What good policy-making looks like</h2>
<p>Identifying those principles begins with accepting that pandemics are, by definition, international. They sweep across the world. Terrible though this is in many ways, it nonetheless provides policy-makers with the opportunity to learn from the experiences of others. </p>
<p>Early on in the pandemic, other countries learned swiftly from the <a href="https://hbr.org/2020/03/lessons-from-italys-response-to-coronavirus">horrific impact of the virus on Italy</a> and were able to adjust their policy responses accordingly. </p>
<p>Similarly, as the pandemic has worn on, governments have increasingly recognised the potentially devastating consequences of blunt “stay at home” orders on mental health, social connections and the broader economy. As a result, they have sought to switch their emphasis away from sweeping lockdowns in favour of <a href="https://ethics.harvard.edu/covid-19-response">intensive testing, contact tracing and helping people to self-isolate </a> with financial assistance, if required.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356863/original/file-20200908-14-3ssz2e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356863/original/file-20200908-14-3ssz2e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356863/original/file-20200908-14-3ssz2e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356863/original/file-20200908-14-3ssz2e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356863/original/file-20200908-14-3ssz2e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356863/original/file-20200908-14-3ssz2e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356863/original/file-20200908-14-3ssz2e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Victoria’s lockdown has been among the most strict in the world.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">James Ross/AAP</span></span>
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<p>In addition to widening the circle of other nations from which they take advice, governments need to have a willingness to engage a broad range of expertise.</p>
<p>In the early days of the pandemic, epidemiologists — especially those gifted in mathematical modelling — understandably held enormous sway. </p>
<p>However, it has become clear the science required for us to emerge stronger from the pandemic must be far wider in scope. A sole focus on predicting and controlling COVID case numbers <a href="https://anthrosource.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/maq.12599">fails to take into account</a> the other compelling consequences of our public policy.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-long-will-i-have-to-wear-a-mask-can-single-people-visit-a-sharehouse-common-questions-answered-about-victorias-new-roadmap-145682">How long will I have to wear a mask? Can single people visit a sharehouse? Common questions answered about Victoria's new roadmap</a>
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<p>Good decision-making in these circumstances demands a breadth of perspectives. We need to draw on the predictive powers of psychologists and psychiatrists, sociologists and anthropologists, economists and educators — in addition to the epidemiological modellers. </p>
<p>A further advantage of such breadth is it enables policy-makers to examine their choices against different timelines. </p>
<p>Those whose focus is limiting case numbers, that is, can tell us what is likely to happen in a matter of days or weeks. Other experts can draw attention to the impact of choices in months or years. </p>
<p>For example, Victoria’s stage 4 lockdown may appear successful by pushing case numbers into single digits after a period of exponential increase, but it could also extract an enormous toll, <a href="https://reachwell.org/latest-releases-blog/">including on the development and mental well-being of children</a>. </p>
<p>Good policy-making takes all of these perspectives into account.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/can-victorians-stick-to-the-stage-4-rules-our-perception-of-what-others-are-doing-might-be-the-key-143252">Can Victorians stick to the stage 4 rules? Our perception of what others are doing might be the key</a>
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<h2>Victoria’s narrow vision</h2>
<p>These three principles — an international perspective, a breadth of expertise and an ability to look to the long-term as well as the short — show us precisely where Australia, and especially Victoria, has gone wrong.</p>
<p>When Premier Daniel Andrews announced his roadmap out of lockdown, none of these conditions were met. </p>
<p>There was no indication the Andrews administration had learned from global best practice or had any interest in doing so. In fact, the only references to other countries made by government officials <a href="https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/health-authorities-eye-retail-precincts-as-highrisk-virus-setting-as-victoria-records-41-new-coronavirus-cases/news-story/d13ecd39f9a1a93b744e36ffd30e6b91">have been derogatory and dismissive</a>. </p>
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<p>No explanation was provided why the Victorian government says, for example, that cases have to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-06/coronavirus-explainer-melbourne-roadmap-easing-restrictions/12634506">fall below an average </a> of five per day over a 14-day period for lockdown to be eased, when a recent editorial in the British Medical Journal suggests a reasonable track-and-trace program, rather than a lockdown, can control the spread as long as <a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3365">there is a seven-day rolling average </a> of fewer than four new cases per 100, 000 people a day.</p>
<p>Nor was an explanation was provided for why the government believed the nighttime curfews were required, when they have been absent in most other democratic nations, including <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/explainers-53640249">those with otherwise strict lockdowns</a>.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356864/original/file-20200908-24-17af0e7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356864/original/file-20200908-24-17af0e7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356864/original/file-20200908-24-17af0e7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356864/original/file-20200908-24-17af0e7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356864/original/file-20200908-24-17af0e7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356864/original/file-20200908-24-17af0e7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356864/original/file-20200908-24-17af0e7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Melbourne’s curfew has been extended under the government’s roadmap.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Erik Anderson/AAP</span></span>
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<p>Similarly, there is no sense the government has either commissioned work from or listened attentively to experts from beyond the narrow world of epidemiological modelling. </p>
<p>Shitij Kapur, the dean of medicine at the University of Melbourne, recently drew attention to this folly, <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/how-unlocked-victoria-can-learn-to-live-with-the-virus-20200819-p55n2l">emphasisng</a> that different experts recognise </p>
<blockquote>
<p>there are more than one vulnerable groups to COVID-19. We need to protect them all. Differently.</p>
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<p>Most worryingly of all, the Andrews roadmap says nothing about the long-term consequences of lockdown, nor does it paint a picture of alternative futures, including a future where there is no workable vaccine and societies around the world must learn to live with the virus. </p>
<p>Others will have their explanations of precisely why the Victorian government’s decision-making has failed in this regard. It is rooted, perhaps, in the competitive politics that exists between the states, and between states and the Commonwealth government. </p>
<p>That does not matter to the rest of us, though. What we need is for a swift return to policy-making that inspires the world, not leaves it behind. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-modelling-behind-melbournes-extended-city-wide-lockdown-is-problematic-145681">The modelling behind Melbourne's extended city-wide lockdown is problematic</a>
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<p><em>Correction: this article originally referred to a BMJ editorial as “research”, this has been corrected.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145723/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marc Stears does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Three principles are missing from Victoria’s approach: a recognition of global best practices, a breadth of expertise and an ability to look at the long-term consequences of its decisions.Marc Stears, Professor and Director, Sydney Policy Lab, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1453932020-09-06T20:16:24Z2020-09-06T20:16:24ZVictoria now has a good roadmap out of COVID-19 restrictions. New South Wales should emulate it<p>The COVID-19 <a href="https://www.vic.gov.au/coronavirus-covid-19-restrictions-roadmaps">roadmap for Victoria</a> announced by Premier Daniel Andrews sets the state on the right path. Something like it should be emulated by New South Wales, which has not yet achieved zero new cases.</p>
<p>Victoria’s roadmap towards what Andrews calls “COVID-normal” makes a <a href="https://theconversation.com/victorias-path-out-of-covid-19-lockdown-quick-reference-guides-145674">clear distinction between metropolitan Melbourne and regional Victoria</a>. Restrictions are marginally less severe in regional Victoria, where the incidence of infections is lower.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/victorias-path-out-of-covid-19-lockdown-quick-reference-guides-145674">Victoria's path out of COVID-19 lockdown – quick reference guides</a>
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<p>For metropolitan Melbourne there are five steps; regional Victoria has four. For each step, the roadmap outlines which restrictions will be lifted on our road towards the cherished status of COVID-normal – or zero active cases of COVID-19. The roadmap also provisionally outlines when restrictions will be lifted, although this depends on case numbers. </p>
<p>For metropolitan Melbourne, the curfew will be eased from next week to start at 9pm instead of 8pm. It will remain in place until new cases average fewer than five per day over the course of a fortnight – the criterion to move to the third step of the roadmap. </p>
<p>The first two steps will still entail significant restrictions on public gatherings and visitors, plus the creation of a “single social bubble” allowance, under which people living alone can designate a person who can visit their home. Staged school returns will begin once there are fewer than 50 cases a day on a fortnightly average.</p>
<p>Step three sees the partial resumption of Melbourne’s café culture, as well as hairdressing. </p>
<p>A new <a href="https://theconversation.com/could-traffic-light-alerts-help-victoria-exit-lockdown-safely-144931">traffic light system</a> will also be introduced to allow a <a href="https://www.vic.gov.au/industry-restrictions-roadmap-metro-melbourne">phased reopening for businesses and workplaces</a>.</p>
<h2>Is the roadmap heading in the right direction?</h2>
<p>Grattan Institute’s four-point plan, detailed in our report last week titled <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/how-australia-can-get-to-zero-covid-19-cases/">Go for zero</a>, argues that states should reaffirm the <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/national-cabinet-24jul20">National Cabinet’s target of zero transmissions</a> and set clear criteria for easing restrictions.</p>
<p>The Victorian roadmap keeps appropriate restrictions until zero active cases – the Grattan criterion for defining zero – before the final step on the roadmap, COVID-normal.</p>
<p>Grattan’s second criterion – clear and explicit staging of the easing of restrictions – is also met in the Victorian roadmap, but in a confusing way. The thresholds adopted in the Victorian plan are a mishmash of epidemiological criteria, case numbers and dates.</p>
<p>It is entirely appropriate that the roadmap’s dates are purely provisional, and subject to epidemiological criteria such as average case numbers. But this raises the question of why the roadmap has dates at all.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/slow-and-steady-exit-from-lockdown-as-victorian-government-sets-sights-on-covid-normal-christmas-145558">'Slow and steady' exit from lockdown as Victorian government sets sights on 'COVID-normal' Christmas</a>
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<p>Victorians may read the epidemiological criteria as reasons to bring forward the provisional dates for easing restrictions, when in reality they are more likely to put the provisional dates back. The public might end up frustrated if the promised date passes with no reward for good behaviour.</p>
<p>The epidemiological criteria are expressed in an extremely complex way: a 14-day threshold average, plus further criteria based on the source of infection. Until now, the public’s attention has been focused simply on the number of new cases each day. </p>
<p>Introducing this more complex measure is a step backward. Expressing the criterion as an average also runs the risk of the threshold being met but the final few days of the 14-day averaging period revealing an upward trend. A simple and clear criterion, based on number of new cases, would have been better.</p>
<h2>Politics as well as science?</h2>
<p>The Victorian government has trumpeted the use of <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-06/victoria-coronavirus-covid-19-lockdown-restrictions-modelling/12633906">epidemiological modelling to support its decisions</a>. However the first two steps seem to be driven by a mix of politics and science.</p>
<p>Step one will occur on September 13, regardless of the number of new cases detected between now and then. The new case threshold for step two is expressed as an average of 30-50 cases a day over the previous 14 days. It is unclear why there is a lower bound; why not just say “fewer than 50 cases”? If it is designed to give political flexibility, it defeats the purpose of clear criteria.</p>
<p>Knowledge of the coronavirus and how it works – both in terms of clinical treatment and public health science – is advancing rapidly. We now know more about <a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3223">which restrictions work best</a> than we did when Melbourne first entered its Stage 4 lockdown. </p>
<p>Some restrictions included in the roadmap – such as night curfews – now have a weak evidence base. The evidence is also stronger now in <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31483-5/fulltext">allowing primary schools to return</a> before secondary schools, but the roadmap takes no account of this distinction. It is a pity the roadmap doesn’t align more closely with the latest science.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/children-might-play-a-bigger-role-in-covid-transmission-than-first-thought-schools-must-prepare-144947">Children might play a bigger role in COVID transmission than first thought. Schools must prepare</a>
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<p>Lockdowns are necessary, but they have big downsides which need to be weighed against the undoubted benefits. One main downside is that they <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/news/waves-of-inequity-in-the-coronavirus-pandemic/">hit the most disadvantaged people hardest</a>. The cost of social isolation has been somewhat ameliorated in the roadmap, with its provision for “social bubbles”, but this could perhaps have been more generous. </p>
<p>Overall, Victoria’s roadmap is good. It identifies the right goal (zero active cases), it provides explicit criteria for when restrictions might be lifted (but unfortunately not as clear and simple as they could be), and each of the steps involves mostly appropriate restrictions. </p>
<p>Victorians have every reason to share in Andrews’ hopefulness for a COVID-normal Christmas to cap off a very difficult year.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145393/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the Federal and Victorian Governments, $4 million from BHP Billiton, and $1 million from NAB. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute’s board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and contribute to funding Grattan Institute's activities. Grattan Institute also receives funding from corporates, foundations, and individuals to support its general activities, as disclosed on its website</span></em></p>Overall, Victoria’s roadmap is good. It identifies the right goal, provides explicit criteria for when restrictions might be lifted, and involves mostly appropriate restrictions.Stephen Duckett, Director, Health Program, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1456762020-09-06T09:27:53Z2020-09-06T09:27:53ZView from The Hill: Daniel Andrews frustrates Scott Morrison with a slow-pace lockdown exit<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356639/original/file-20200906-20-slo7r3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4741%2C3144&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://photos.aap.com.au/">Erik Anderson/AAP</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Victoria’s ultra-cautious roadmap out of its lockdown, outlined by Premier Daniel Andrews on Sunday, reinforced the strong message that came from Friday’s national cabinet.</p>
<p>Premiers are in the driving seat of exiting COVID restrictions, and they are imposing the strictest speed limits – much slower than Prime Minister Scott Morrison would like – and ignoring federal government pressure.</p>
<p>Western Australia’s Mark McGowan defied Morrison’s plan on Friday. Queensland’s Annastacia Palaszczuk made it clear she won’t open her state’s border with New South Wales until she’s good and ready.</p>
<p>Now, unsurprisingly, Andrews has indicated he will not be hurried, despite the cries from business and the sound of Canberra’s grinding teeth.</p>
<p>Andrews stressed his timetable “is not what many people want to hear – but it is the only option”. He warned “you can’t run” out of lockdown – or there would be a third wave.</p>
<p>The Morrison government doesn’t think it is the only option, and didn’t mince words in a statement quickly issued from the PM, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg and Health Minister Greg Hunt (the latter two are Victorians).</p>
<p>“To extend lockdown arrangements will be hard and crushing news for the people of Victoria,” they said.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/slow-and-steady-exit-from-lockdown-as-victorian-government-sets-sights-on-covid-normal-christmas-145558">'Slow and steady' exit from lockdown as Victorian government sets sights on 'COVID-normal' Christmas</a>
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<p>Just in case anyone doubted where to sheet blame, this was “a further reminder of the impact and costs that result from not being able to contain the outbreaks of COVID 19”.</p>
<p>The statement stressed the roadmap was “a Victorian government plan”, distancing the feds from any ownership.</p>
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<img alt="A woman walks wearing a mask." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356641/original/file-20200906-14-1bcyyf5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356641/original/file-20200906-14-1bcyyf5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356641/original/file-20200906-14-1bcyyf5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356641/original/file-20200906-14-1bcyyf5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356641/original/file-20200906-14-1bcyyf5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356641/original/file-20200906-14-1bcyyf5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356641/original/file-20200906-14-1bcyyf5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Dan Andrews has charted a slow course out of lockdowns for Victoria.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP</span></span>
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<p>The tone was very different from Morrison’s words to Parliament last Tuesday, when he said “Victoria has turned the corner and we, together with the Victorian government, are planning to reopen Melbourne and reopen Victoria”.</p>
<p>Sunday’s federal statement declared “the proposed roadmap will come at a further economic cost.”</p>
<p>“While this needs to be weighed up against mitigating the risk of further community outbreak, it is also true that the continued restrictions will have further impact on the Victorian and national economy, in further job losses and loss of livelihoods, as well as impacting on mental health.”</p>
<p>The federal government will talk to business in Victoria “to understand their concerns and seek to ensure they are addressed”.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/victorias-path-out-of-covid-19-lockdown-quick-reference-guides-145674">Victoria's path out of COVID-19 lockdown – quick reference guides</a>
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<p>Morrison and his ministers also had fresh praise for the NSW government, which has its economy running despite continuing low levels of cases. They highlighted the Berejiklian government’s successful contact tracing.</p>
<p>Federal help is being offered to strengthen Victorian contact tracing, in the (probably vain) hope that could put the Victorian foot on the accelerator.</p>
<p>Andrews has used elaborate modelling in reaching his strategy. But his critics argue the benchmarks, particularly at the back end of the timetable, are unrealistic.</p>
<p>For example, the last step in Melbourne’s easing, dated from November 23, is contingent on “no new cases for 14 days (state-wide)”.</p>
<p>It was quickly pointed out if the Andrews’ road map were in place in NSW, that state would have a curfew now.</p>
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<img alt="An empty Melbourne street at night." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356642/original/file-20200906-22-1yqpcun.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356642/original/file-20200906-22-1yqpcun.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356642/original/file-20200906-22-1yqpcun.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356642/original/file-20200906-22-1yqpcun.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356642/original/file-20200906-22-1yqpcun.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356642/original/file-20200906-22-1yqpcun.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356642/original/file-20200906-22-1yqpcun.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Businesses want Victoria’s restrictions to be lifted more quickly.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP</span></span>
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<p>NSW’s tally announced on Sunday was 10 new cases to 8pm Saturday. The Melbourne curfew is to be lifted from October 26 if there is a statewide daily average over the previous fortnight of less than five new cases and a statewide total of less than five cases with unknown sources over that period.</p>
<p>For the immediate future, in Melbourne there will be an additional fortnight – beyond next weekend – of the hard lockdown, with some minimal tweaking.</p>
<p>The overnight curfew will start an hour later (at 9pm), exercise can be up to two hours, and singles will be able to form a bubble with someone else.</p>
<p>From September 28, if the cases have come down (latest tally on Sunday was 63) to 30-50 daily average in metro-Melbourne over the previous fortnight, there will be gradual relaxations including the re-opening of childcare. The state government says step two would see about 100,000 people return to work across a number of sectors, including construction and manufacturing.</p>
<p>But Melbourne businesses in retail and hospitality will not be able to start to getting back to reasonable activity until the end of October, and hospitality will be strictly limited.</p>
<p>The restrictions in regional Victoria will be eased from their already lighter base.</p>
<p>Business is up in arms. The Australian Industry Group predicted “catastrophic economic, health and social damage caused by the continued lockdown and [the] prospect of more months of sharply diminished activity”.</p>
<p>Frydenberg said a week ago that on Treasury estimates, in the December and March quarters more Victorians were expected to be on JobKeeper than in every other state combined. The calculations didn’t assume any extension of the lockdown. The roadmap could see the numbers even higher than anticipated.</p>
<p>The Andrews timetable will put pressure on the Victorian government but also on Morrison.</p>
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<img alt="Scott Morrison and Josh Frydenberg in Parliament with masks" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356643/original/file-20200906-16-fayn4b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356643/original/file-20200906-16-fayn4b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356643/original/file-20200906-16-fayn4b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356643/original/file-20200906-16-fayn4b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356643/original/file-20200906-16-fayn4b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356643/original/file-20200906-16-fayn4b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356643/original/file-20200906-16-fayn4b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The Victoria situation will put pressure on Prime Minister Scott Morrison.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP</span></span>
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<p>Andrews’ hard line is stretching the tolerance of Victorians. Not only will many local businesses believe they can’t survive the longer restrictions, but some voters will be reaching levels of deep stress.</p>
<p>The pressure points on the federal government come from various directions.</p>
<p>There have been calls for it to just “do something”, to intervene to override what are being seen as recalcitrant states. However it is not obvious it would have viable power to do so.</p>
<p>Even if it could intervene, it would be high risk – on health, economic and political grounds.</p>
<p>The extended Victorian lockdown will increase demands for the government to provide more stimulus for the economy, and bolster the calls of those who say JobKeeper and the Coronavirus supplement should not be phased down.</p>
<p>The Victorian roadmap won’t just feed into the budget numbers, but it will affect the public climate in which the October budget is brought down.</p>
<p>In that budget, the government will be talking up hope. But on October 6, Victorians hearing the budget will be still under curfew, confined to takeaways, unable to see extended family.</p>
<p>“I want all of us to stay the course so that we can all have something approaching a normal Christmas,” Andrews said on Sunday. It will require quite a feat to deliver that, on the terms of this strict roadmap.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145676/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Daniel Andrews has released his ‘ultra-cautious’ roadmap, with a view to a ‘normal Christmas’.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1454482020-09-03T08:21:32Z2020-09-03T08:21:32Z4 perspectives on how Victoria should exit stage 4 lockdown<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355948/original/file-20200902-14-g8suhf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=23%2C7%2C5302%2C3537&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">James Ross/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Metropolitan Melbourne’s <a href="https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/stage-4-restrictions-summary-covid-19">stage 4 lockdown</a> is due to end on Sunday September 13. </p>
<p>While there’s been much speculation around <a href="https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/vic-may-endure-masks-curfew-past-lockdown-c-1287895">what will come next</a>, we’ll have a clearer picture <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-education/victorian-road-map-to-reopen-scheduled-for-sunday-20200831-p55qt5">this Sunday</a>, when Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews announces the state’s “roadmap” for easing COVID-19 restrictions.</p>
<p>Ahead of this announcement, we asked four experts what they see as the most important aspects of Victoria’s path out of stage 4.</p>
<h2>Trade-offs and transparency</h2>
<p><strong>Adrian Esterman, Professor of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of South Australia</strong></p>
<p>I believe we need a much more nuanced approach than simply, say, going back to stage 3 restrictions. </p>
<p>The stage 4 restrictions are taking a heavy toll on people’s <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpsy/article/PIIS2215-0366(20)30308-4/fulltext">mental health</a>. Every restriction must be carefully examined as a trade-off between improved quality of life and increased probability of transmission.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-need-to-flatten-the-other-coronavirus-curve-our-looming-mental-health-crisis-137170">We need to flatten the 'other' coronavirus curve, our looming mental health crisis</a>
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<p>There are some no-brainers. Anecdotally, many people are already breaking the one-hour limit on daily exercise. Increasing it to two hours per day would be a great relief and should have little effect on transmission, provided people stick to social distancing.</p>
<p>Similarly, it’s not clear what evidence underpins the rule that bans people from travelling more than 5km from home (with some exceptions). Surely it could be increased to, say, 10km with little impact on case numbers.</p>
<p>UNSW epidemiologist Mary-Louise McLaws has suggested a <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-the-covid-bubble-concept-and-could-it-work-in-australia-144938">bubble approach</a>, which allows spending time with nominated people outside one’s own household. This would go a long way to reducing loneliness for those living on their own.</p>
<p>The 8pm-5am curfew has been <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/aug/07/is-melbournes-coronavirus-curfew-likely-to-be-effective-we-ask-the-experts">contentious</a>, with some experts arguing more attention should be placed on workplace safety rather than policing people’s movements. Given the high number of cases arising from nursing homes and health-care settings, there’s some merit in this argument.</p>
<p>Some restrictions, such as mandatory face masks, probably need to stay for a while longer.</p>
<p>Whatever actions the Victorian government takes at the end of lockdown, I would like it to publish the reasoning and evidence behind the restrictions that remain. This would go a long way towards building public trust.</p>
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<img alt="Young man sits on couch, thinking." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356195/original/file-20200903-20-qgo7hl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356195/original/file-20200903-20-qgo7hl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356195/original/file-20200903-20-qgo7hl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356195/original/file-20200903-20-qgo7hl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356195/original/file-20200903-20-qgo7hl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356195/original/file-20200903-20-qgo7hl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356195/original/file-20200903-20-qgo7hl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A bubble approach could make a big difference for people living alone.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<h2>Being prepared for any sign of resurgence</h2>
<p><strong>C Raina MacIntyre, Professor of Global Biosecurity, UNSW</strong></p>
<p>The best path out of stage 4 would be, once daily cases are in the low double digits, to use a step-wise, careful easing of restrictions, maintain the mask mandate, and to promote mask use as a tool that enables freedom rather than removes it. The biggest problem is asymptomatic infection, which means we cannot always identify who is infected and infectious.</p>
<p>We also need to keep up social distancing, make testing easy by continuing to provide drive-through sites widely, control the size and structure of gatherings, and continue hotel quarantine programs (heeding lessons from previous mistakes).</p>
<p>Importantly, we should have <a href="https://newsroom.unsw.edu.au/news/health/elimination-eradication-and-myth-living-certain-level-covid-19">a low and clearly defined threshold</a> for increasing the use of these measures, including lockdowns, at the first sign of a resurgence. A few weeks’ delay or procrastination can see the epidemic grow as it did in Melbourne within weeks, from low double digits to high triple digits.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/which-face-mask-should-i-wear-142373">Which face mask should I wear?</a>
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<p>We will continue to live with COVID-19 until we have an effective vaccine. Until then it will be a balancing act between applying and releasing the brakes to enable as much activity as possible, while keeping the disease under control.</p>
<p>As we approach the end of the year and the festive season, we want to make sure the disease incidence is as low as possible, or we could face a large resurgence after New Year. </p>
<p>Plans for safe Christmas and New Year activities should be starting now. This includes seriously considering the safety of religious services, given the risky combination of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/08/us/coronavirus-churches-outbreaks.html">large gatherings with singing</a>. If going ahead, religious services should be smaller in size, socially distanced, outdoors if possible, or with open windows combined with fans.</p>
<h2>Opening up the performing arts</h2>
<p><strong>Philip Russo, Associate Professor, Monash University</strong></p>
<p>The first steps of the roadmap need to include a reopening of performing arts venues in Victoria. In regional centres, these venues are often the cultural lifeblood of the town, and a return to live entertainment will offer some minor relief to small businesses, and importantly, provide entertainment, joy and hope to the community.</p>
<p>Some simple strategies can minimise any risk of COVID-19 transmission in these settings. </p>
<p>First, make use of any outdoor venues and provide <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/social-distanced-music-festival-intl-scli-gbr/index.html">controlled audience sections</a> (where individual groups are separated from one another). Indoors, restrict attendance to 25% of house capacity, and over time that can increase. </p>
<p>Second, for outdoor or indoor venues, minimise the number of performers on stage, ensure performers step no further than mid-stage, and keep the first four or so rows empty. Cast and crew would need to continue to physically distance, and they might also undergo regular testing. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Man plays saxophone to outdoor audience." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356238/original/file-20200903-18-34ksd7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356238/original/file-20200903-18-34ksd7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356238/original/file-20200903-18-34ksd7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356238/original/file-20200903-18-34ksd7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356238/original/file-20200903-18-34ksd7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356238/original/file-20200903-18-34ksd7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356238/original/file-20200903-18-34ksd7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Utilising outdoor spaces would be a good way to get performing arts up and running again.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<p>The audience would need to wear masks, as well as provide their contact details in case of the need to follow up.</p>
<p>Minimise mingling of the audience. No hanging out in the foyer before or after the show, and no interval. Get in, get out. And no loitering near the stage door to meet your idol. </p>
<p>Other strategies could include temperature checking on arrival, and using one door in and one door out. If successful, audience and performer numbers could gradually increase.</p>
<p>If all this was in place, it’s quite likely it would be safer to go the to the theatre than to your local supermarket.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-the-covid-bubble-concept-and-could-it-work-in-australia-144938">What is the COVID 'bubble' concept, and could it work in Australia?</a>
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<h2>A focus on prevention for safe work and play</h2>
<p><strong>Catherine Bennett, Chair in Epidemiology, Deakin University</strong></p>
<p>The way ahead needs to be focused as much on prevention as it is on response. We need early warning systems and reliable contact tracing for outbreak identification and control, but we also need more emphasis on how we prevent transmission in the first instance.</p>
<p>Prevention is in our hands. Wearing masks, particularly when we can’t <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31142-9/fulltext">physically distance</a> and <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.28.20029272v2">in indoor public settings</a>, will reduce transmission, minimise the likelihood restrictions will need to be reintroduced, and pave the way for a time when we might not have to wear masks all the time outdoors.</p>
<p>Our essential workplaces are now operating under COVID-safe plans, and other businesses and industries will need COVID-safe plans to reopen.</p>
<p>We now have the advantage of warmer weather ahead. If cafes and pubs can set up more outdoor seating alongside spaced seating indoors, and if everyone practises good hygiene and distancing, we can work and play safely.</p>
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<img alt="People moving through a laneway in Melbourne with cafes on each side." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356207/original/file-20200903-20-1vgftww.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356207/original/file-20200903-20-1vgftww.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356207/original/file-20200903-20-1vgftww.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356207/original/file-20200903-20-1vgftww.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356207/original/file-20200903-20-1vgftww.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356207/original/file-20200903-20-1vgftww.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356207/original/file-20200903-20-1vgftww.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Many Victorians are keen to get back to restaurants and cafes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<p>The idea of a “<a href="https://theconversation.com/could-traffic-light-alerts-help-victoria-exit-lockdown-safely-144931">traffic light</a>” alert system is a hot topic right now. This approach designates areas at different levels of transmission, with corresponding travel or other restrictions to be implemented depending on whether the area is green, amber or red. </p>
<p>But blanket restrictions on movement, social networking and business operation are not a precise way to disrupt local transmission chains. We must aim to be as targeted as possible in our interventions to minimise collateral damage as we contain outbreaks.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/could-traffic-light-alerts-help-victoria-exit-lockdown-safely-144931">Could 'traffic-light' alerts help Victoria exit lockdown safely?</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145448/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>C Raina MacIntyre currently receives funding from NHMRC: Principal Research Fellowship, Centre for Research Excellence; Medical Research Futures Fund. In the past five years she has received research grants from Sanofi and Seqirus </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philip Russo is the President of the Australasian College for Infection Prevention and Control. He is Deputy Chair of the Infection Control Expert Group to the Department of Health, a member of the COVID Evidence Taskforce Steering Committee, the Australian Strategic and Technical Advisory Group on AMR, the Healthcare Associated Infection Advisory Committee to the Australian Commission on Safety and Quality in Health Care, and a member of the Australian College of Nursing. He is also the recipient of a NHMRC Early Career Fellowship, and has received research funding from the Rosemary Norman Foundation, Cardinal Health, Australian College of Nursing and the Cabrini Institute</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Esterman and Catherine Bennett do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Ahead of the release of Victoria’s roadmap out of lockdown, we asked four experts to explain what they see as the most important aspects of the state’s path out of stage 4.Adrian Esterman, Professor of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of South AustraliaCatherine Bennett, Chair in Epidemiology, Deakin UniversityC Raina MacIntyre, Professor of Global Biosecurity, NHMRC Principal Research Fellow, Head, Biosecurity Program, Kirby Institute, UNSW SydneyPhilip Russo, Associate Professor, Director Cabrini Monash University Department of Nursing Research, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1281172019-12-03T02:37:16Z2019-12-03T02:37:16ZThe government is hyping digitalised services, but not addressing a history of e-government fails<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/304831/original/file-20191202-67002-106wryj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4500%2C3132&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">E-government involves using the internet to streamline interaction between government agencies and the public.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">SHUTTERSTOCK</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In politics, when you have little to show for your achievements, you can release a “roadmap” for what will supposedly be achieved in the future. </p>
<p>You can look on the bright side. Use phrases such as “<a href="https://twitter.com/stuartrobertmp/status/1200230615171256320">ontology of capabilities</a>”, and disregard a number of crashes, traffic jams, protests and policy detours.</p>
<p>This is what we’re seeing with the national government’s <a href="https://www.dta.gov.au/news/digital-transformation-strategy-update-year-1">Digital Transformation Strategy Update</a> and subsequent planned <a href="https://www.dta.gov.au/dts-roadmap">two-year rolling roadmap</a>, announced last week by Minister for Government Services Stuart Robert.</p>
<p>When the strategy was launched last year, it was <a href="https://ministers.pmc.gov.au/keenan/2018/our-bold-vision-australias-digital-future">described</a> as offering a “clear direction” for the government’s digital efforts over the next seven years. It would ensure Australia’s place as one of the “top three digital governments” by 2025.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-australia-can-learn-about-e-government-from-estonia-35091">What Australia can learn about e-government from Estonia</a>
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<p>It purportedly offers a “complete view of digital activities” occurring across national government agencies, in the form of a roadmap spanning the next two years.</p>
<p>But if you’re someone who interacts with government, it’s worth asking questions about the basis of the strategy, and how Canberra communicates the often bumpy road to <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2803233">e-government</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.aspi.org.au/report/introducing-integrated-e-government-australia">E-government</a> is a mantra, both a process and goal. In essence, it involves using digital technologies, notably the internet, to streamline interactions between government agencies and the public. Examples include payment of licences and taxes, business registration and allowance claims. </p>
<p>And taking that activity online should force bureaucracies to take a hard look at how they operate.</p>
<h2>Problems on the transformation highway</h2>
<p>Overall, there are benefits for national productivity and the taxpayer in taking government online. Most of us love the convenience of getting rid of paper and queues. </p>
<p>However, we should ask whether government as a whole needs to lift its game in how it deals with the public when transforming, and how it develops its priorities. Those priorities need to be more than “we can do it”, plus media opportunity. </p>
<p>If we look at what’s happening on the transformation highway, we might be sceptical about the value of the minister’s roadmap.</p>
<p>The Digital Transformation Agency (DTA), the latest iteration of government re-engineering agencies since the Paul Keating era, was championed by Malcolm Turnbull. </p>
<p>Without prime ministerial support, it has consistently underperformed in bureaucratic infighting. The Australian Taxation Office, and departments of human services, home affairs and defence have gone their own way. </p>
<p>It has also been affected by <a href="https://www.itnews.com.au/news/dta-staff-churn-jumps-to-highest-level-since-restructure-534453">churn</a> among senior staff, including several <a href="https://www.themandarin.com.au/94731-governments-digital-boss-gavin-slater-moves-on/">chief executives</a>. </p>
<p>Former DTA executive Paul Shetler damned the strategy as lacking substance. That is a valid criticism of the document and associated “roadmap” report, which presents isolated projects across government as proof of a coherent strategy that is being delivered effectively.</p>
<p>In practice, digital initiatives originate and are implemented at department level. This reflects the authority and ambitions of individual ministers.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-a-digital-first-government-would-look-like-48005">What a 'digital first' government would look like</a>
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<p>It also reflects the imperatives of their departments and own agencies, administering statutory powers surrounding responsibilities such as migration, taxation and education. </p>
<p>The strategy thus resembles the traditional agreement to agree (rather than a coherent central direction), where different ministers and departments will continue their individual plans, while merely paying lip service to a whole-of-government approach.</p>
<p>It’s not something for which Robert can take much credit. And it doesn’t acknowledge concerns about underperformance.</p>
<h2>A challenging road</h2>
<p>E-government has been a mantra in all advanced economies for the past 20 years. Australia has discovered the road to e-government is more challenging than the maps provided by consulting or ministerial media advisors.</p>
<p>The expectation is that digital transformation will radically improve services to everyone who interacts with government. Ideally, it will reduce costs, increase consistency of services, and provide rich pools of data to enable smarter policy development. </p>
<p>It will get rid of paper, use large-scale data matching to detect criminal activity, and strengthen Australia’s artificial intelligence industry.</p>
<p>The vision is founded on a innovative whole-of-government approach. In practice, it is a document with little strategy. It essentially bundles initiatives “owned” by different ministers and put into action by separate departments in fierce competition for funds. </p>
<p>We need to look beyond a roadmap in which the government (and minister) claims credit for initiatives that are episodic, rather than strategic. Government doing what it’s meant to do, working smarter for us, is not a cause for celebration.</p>
<h2>Transformation for whom?</h2>
<p>“Transformation” <em>has</em> produced some clear winners, independent of the strategy. </p>
<p>Commercial service providers have done well out of each department’s programs. Transformation has been great for the likes of SAP, ORACLE, KPMG and Amazon Web Services: large multi-year contracts for system design, maintenance and connectivity.</p>
<p>Has it been great for you and me in terms of value for money, respect and good governance? </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/digitising-social-services-could-further-exclude-people-already-on-the-margins-103201">Digitising social services could further exclude people already on the margins</a>
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<p>In looking at the roadmap, remember <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-19/abs-annual-report-censusfail/9064970">CensusFail</a> and billion-dollar <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/25/my-health-record-failed-to-manage-cybersecurity-and-privacy-risks-audit-finds">e-health project</a>, which faced consumer <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2018-11-14/my-health-record-opt-out-deadline-amendments-privacy-security/10481806">backlash</a>.</p>
<p>What about the misery-causing <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/28/robodebt-the-federal-court-ruling-and-what-it-means-for-targeted-welfare-recipients">RoboDebt</a> initiative damned by the Federal Court last week?</p>
<p>The national auditor recurrently criticises inadequate e-government planning such as a biometric scheme <a href="https://www.itnews.com.au/news/auditor-lashes-junked-national-biometrics-project-after-significant-failures-518213">damned</a> as “deficient in almost every significant respect”. </p>
<p>Benefits for citizens through interagency data sharing do not include greater government accountability. That’s unsurprising, given the government’s <a href="https://www.themandarin.com.au/121139-home-affairs-has-more-important-things-to-do-than-comply-with-the-foi-act-michael-pezzullo/">hostility</a> to <a href="https://www.themandarin.com.au/117590-most-foi-officers-believe-in-transparency-but-their-bosses-dont-have-their-backs-study/">freedom of information requests</a>. </p>
<p>The e-government vision requires learning from mistakes. Sadly, that’s ignored by the strategy.</p>
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<p><em>Correction: we have updated this article with Paul Shetler’s correct name.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/128117/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bruce Baer Arnold does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Minister for Government Services has announced a two-year roadmap to supposedly propel e-government. But the plans, part of a larger strategy, are considerably lacking substance.Bruce Baer Arnold, Assistant Professor, School of Law, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/780062017-06-07T15:29:26Z2017-06-07T15:29:26ZSouthern Africa has an integration plan: but it’s short of sector specifics<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/171664/original/file-20170531-25689-yzgxn9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The southern African region can benefit from beneficiating produce like sugar.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">REUTERS/Mujahid Safodien</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Southern African Development Community (SADC) has placed industrialisation at the centre of its regional integrated development plan and a <a href="http://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---africa/---ro-addis_ababa/---ilo-pretoria/documents/meetingdocument/wcms_391013.pdf">roadmap</a> has been drawn up to guide the plan. But implementation has been poor and not a lot of headway has been made to integrate the economies of the region. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.competition.org.za/regional-value-chains">Recent studies</a> on value chains in the region highlight high transport costs and continued use of non-tariff barriers in some countries as some of the main reasons for poor progress.</p>
<p>These studies suggest that the region needs a coherent sector-specific approach to support the development of regional value chains. That should be supported by efforts to reduce trade barriers. In addition, the impact on industrialisation that large multinationals have had should be considered.</p>
<p>The idea of a roadmap was a wise move but more is needed to give it practical focus. We assessed the extent to which it takes into account the findings of various studies and whether it incorporates plans to overcome the identified challenges. Although the strategy has identified key sectors to lead the process, it fails to set out what should happen in specific sectors to support regional linkages. Its also blind to the role of large multinationals which are distorting regional markets.</p>
<h2>Beneficiation is the key</h2>
<p>The industrialisation strategy stresses the urgent need for the region to make use of its abundant and diverse resources – particularly in agriculture and mining. It’s key aim is to foster industrialisation through beneficiation – a process of transforming primary raw materials into a more value added finished product – and value addition.</p>
<p>This approach is informed by two big challenges related to trade.
First, is that intra-regional trade is low. In 2014 intra-SADC trade was 19% of total trade, compared with 70% in Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and 64% in the <a href="https://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Publications/Working_Paper_201_-_Does_Intra-African_Trade_Reduce_Youth_Unemployment_in_Africa.pdf">European Union.</a> </p>
<p>Compounding this is the fact that trade between countries is dominated by low value products from the agricultural and mineral sectors. Most have been through none, or very little processing. This means that a lot of value added products, which can be produced in the region, mineral fuel, are imported. </p>
<p>There are plenty of opportunities to improve the situation. For example, South Africa and Zambia are large net exporters of sugar. Yet, both – as well as others in the region – import most confectionery products, a substantial category of processed food. Products like biscuits, sweets and beverages could add enormous value if they could be produced within the region.</p>
<p>But only a regional approach to promoting value addition will work. It must focus on building productive capacity of industries, developing infrastructure and promoting technology. </p>
<h2>Supply isn’t keeping up with demand</h2>
<p>The agro processing sector is given a prime spot in SADC’s industrialisation strategy. This makes sense because food processing has characterised the early industrialisation stages of many <a href="https://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Publications/WPS_No_255_Competition_and_industrial_policies_relating_to_food_producti....pdf">emerging economies</a>. </p>
<p>It also makes sense because rapid urbanisation is driving increased demand for processed food. Africa’s urban population nearly <a href="http://www.iol.co.za/capetimes/news/africas-huge-urbanisation-challenge-2026331">doubled</a> from 1995 to 2015 and the trend is expected to continue. This has driven up demand for processed foods and confectionery products. But supply isn’t meeting demand. This can be seen from the fact that the region has trade deficits in processed food in sectors like <a href="https://www.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/wp2016-2.pdf">poultry</a> and <a href="http://www.theigc.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Roberts-et-al-2015-Working-paper.pdf">sugar</a> confectionery products. </p>
<p>For the strategy to work, constraints such as development financing, transport and poor border logistics need to be addressed. </p>
<p>Reducing transport costs and border delays have been identified as one of the biggest impediments to developing regional value chains. Transport costs are so high that it’s cheaper to import animal feed and sugar from South America than from the <a href="https://www.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/RB2016-7-Reducing-transport-costs-to-spur-regional-growth-in-Southern-Africa.pdf">region</a>. It’s been estimated that lower transport costs improve the cost competitiveness of regional producers by <a href="https://www.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/RB2016-7-Reducing-transport-costs-to-spur-regional-growth-in-Southern-Africa.pdf">10%</a>. </p>
<h2>Lacking detail</h2>
<p>The region has done well on the big picture (macroeconomic, infrastructure and investment) policies. But there’s been little attention to identifying specific value chains within the agro processing and mineral beneficiation sectors. </p>
<p>The strategy entrenches this problem. Although it points to the need for national industrial policy coordination, it doesn’t address some of the challenges facing specific regional value chains. Non-tariff barriers are an obvious one. Some examples include <a href="https://www.wider.unu.edu/publication/southern-african-poultry-value-chain">Botswana</a> banning chicken imports and its requirement that at least 30% of local maize and soya must be sourced locally first. Measures such as these have hampered a regional poultry value chain developing. </p>
<p>When it comes to confectionery, <a href="https://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Publications/WPS_No_255_Competition_and_industrial_policies_relating_to_food_producti....pdf">recent research</a> shows how the sugar-to-confectionery value chain has been affected by Zambia’s ban on sugar imports from neighbouring countries which has led to high prices of sugar in the domestic market.</p>
<p>Removing barriers would also lead to better outcomes for the region because some countries produce very little of some produce, while being abundant in others. For example, Botswana doesn’t produce enough maize and <a href="https://www.wider.unu.edu/publication/southern-african-poultry-value-chain">soya</a>, while Zambia produces a lot.</p>
<p>Policy coherence and coordination at the sector level is needed to remove these barriers. </p>
<p>Greater attention also needs to be given to the role of large firms, particularity multinationals. For example, the sugar industry is dominated by Illovo and <a href="https://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Publications/WPS_No_255_Competition_and_industrial_policies_relating_to_food_producti....pdf">Tongaat-Hulett</a>. Because of their dominance they can unilaterally set prices. This has led to higher domestic prices compared with international prices.</p>
<p>The domination by large firms can be addressed by ensuring competition between players in the region. This would require co-ordination between competition authorities to address any potential cross border cartels.</p>
<p>In addition, industrial policies would need to be structured in a way that supports the development of regional value chains for mutual benefit of different countries.</p>
<p>It’s clear that SADC’s industrial development strategy has gaps. Among these are concrete action plans for specific sectors and the need for collective action by different member countries. Given that it’s relatively more industrialised, South Africa has a key role to play. But it must just guard against acting like a big brother. </p>
<p><em>Tatenda Zengeni and Maria Nkhonjera who are researchers at the Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Development contributed to this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/78006/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>CCRED receives funding from various organisations including government departments for research on regional value chains. </span></em></p>The Southern African Development Community (SADC) roadmap towards greater regional trade integration and development is a good start but lacks detail.Pamela Mondliwa, Researcher, Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Development, University of JohannesburgLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.