tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/rochester-and-strood-by-election-13561/articlesRochester and Strood by-election – The Conversation2014-12-08T06:00:34Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/346712014-12-08T06:00:34Z2014-12-08T06:00:34ZBye bye swivel eyes: how UKIP transformed to woo the masses<p>As UKIP makes parliamentary gains at every turn, it no longer seems possible to dismiss the party as a group of anti-EU obsessives that has little in common with mainstream politics. The days of the <a>swivel-eyed loon</a> are over.</p>
<p>One of the most striking features of UKIP’s growth seems to be that it is based on increasingly diverse political support. Initially regarded as a refuge for disgruntled Tories, it has become apparent that the party’s support base can no longer be so simplistically characterised. Since the May 2013 local elections, Nigel Farage has taken every opportunity to argue that his party would henceforth be targeting votes from across the spectrum of major parties in the UK.</p>
<p><a href="http://scholar.google.co.uk/citations?view_op=view_citation&hl=en&user=IN6-hlQAAAAJ&citation_for_view=IN6-hlQAAAAJ:dhFuZR0502QC">Research</a> suggests that UKIP fares relatively well among older, less well-educated, white, working-class voters – especially men. These are the left-behinds who have not benefited from social and economic change in contemporary Britain. They are disillusioned with the major parties, embittered by immigration, and eurosceptic. But they are no longer necessarily disillusioned Conservative voters.</p>
<h2>Once upon a time</h2>
<p>Back in 2010, between <a href="http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/6715">45%</a> and <a>60%</a> of UKIP supporters were ex-Tory voters and less than 10% were ex-Labour. </p>
<p>They were much more likely to read newspapers sympathetic to the Conservatives, such as The Daily Mail, The Express, and The Telegraph, and much less likely to read those favouring Labour, such as The Daily Mirror. </p>
<p>On a 10-point scale, where 0 rated as left-wing and 10 as right-wing, UKIP voters in 2010 located themselves at 8.23 on average. This was slightly to the left of where they perceived the Conservative Party to rate (8.74) but comfortably to the right of where they perceived Labour to reside (6.49).</p>
<p>UKIP’s working class supporters were distinct from Labour’s core working-class voters in several respects – they were more self-consciously right-wing, more exercised by issues of cultural identity, more immersed in the Tory press, less likely to live in Labour-held constituencies and, indeed, far less likely to have been Labour voters at all in previous elections.</p>
<h2>The class of 2014</h2>
<p>This classic UKIP profile has started to changed over the past 12 months. As support for the party has grown, it has encroached further and further into Labour territory. In <a href="http://scholar.google.co.uk/citations?view_op=view_citation&hl=en&user=IN6-hlQAAAAJ&citation_for_view=IN6-hlQAAAAJ:dhFuZR0502QC">Rob Ford and Matthew Goodwin’s</a> top 15 parliamentary seats that are most winnable for UKIP, 12 are currently held by Labour.</p>
<p>And there are signs that UKIP has been making significant changes to its policies accordingly. Nigel Farage famously dismissed UKIP’s 2010 manifesto as <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-25879302">“drivel”</a> and announced a thorough review of party policy in 2013.</p>
<p>You now won’t see any references on the UKIP website about being “traditional conservative and libertarian”. Gone are promises about a flat-rate income tax. Instead, there is talk of introducing a graduated tax scheme that would be more palatable to Labour voters.</p>
<p>There is a clear defence of the NHS as something that should remain free at the point of delivery and the coalition government’s controversial bedroom tax will be rescinded. There will be no new Private Finance Initiatives – through which public infrastructure is funded by private money. Local authorities will be encouraged to buy out PFIs that are already running.</p>
<p>These policies all seem to be pitched at the left-behinds who are losing faith in Labour and it seems to be having an effect. <a href="http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/11/ukip-lead-12-points-rochester-strood/#more-6614">Polling</a> ahead of the Rochester and Strood by-election suggested that 40% of those who voted Labour in the constituency in 2010 intended to vote UKIP. That’s only only slightly less than the 44% of Tory supporters in 2010 planning to support UKIP’s Mark Reckless. That said, there are <a href="http://news.sky.com/story/1324855/ukip-poll-reveals-12-most-wanted-seats">indications</a> that most of UKIP’s key target seats are still held by Tories at present. </p>
<h2>Forward planning</h2>
<p>UKIP can’t expect to perform as spectacularly in a general election as in a by-election. The party will have to spread its still underdeveloped organisational resources over <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10320211/Nigel-Farage-we-will-fight-every-seat-in-2015.html">more than 600 constituency campaigns</a>. Beyond Farage and his deputy Paul Nuttall, UKIP has few high-profile politicians that have been tried and tested in the harsh glare of national political campaigns and the intense scrutiny of a general election campaign is likely to highlight holes in party policy.</p>
<p>Even so, UKIP has been preparing for this election for a long time and has made sure that it will be the most difficult-to-predict contest in the post-war era. Another hung parliament is a distinct possibility. The outcome of such a scenario will depend entirely on the arithmetic and the strategic calculations of any party with governing or blackmail potential after the vote. And UKIP just might be a player in that game.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/34671/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Webb does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As UKIP makes parliamentary gains at every turn, it no longer seems possible to dismiss the party as a group of anti-EU obsessives that has little in common with mainstream politics. The days of the swivel-eyed…Paul Webb, Professor of Politics, University of SussexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/345502014-11-21T17:30:33Z2014-11-21T17:30:33ZIt’s a sad day when three limp flags are top of the news agenda<p>Robert Peston, business editor at BBC news recently declared that his employer is <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/media/2014/jun/06/bbc-obsessed-agenda-daily-mail-robert-peston-charles-wheeler">“completely obsessed”</a> by the agenda set by newspapers. The broadcaster, he argued, is constantly taking the content of the Daily Mail and the Daily Telegraph in particular as an indication of what it should be covering. These papers decide what is newsworthy and which issues warrant inclusion into a tight news schedule.</p>
<p>And looking at the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30139832">coverage</a> given to the unfortunate tweet sent by Labour MP Emily Thornberry in the run up to the Rochester and Strood by-election, it seems he has a point. Thornberry tweeted a picture of a house in the constituency. Out of its windows hung three English flags and in its driveway was parked a white van. The caption read: Image from Rochester.</p>
<p>Thornberry almost immediately resigned from her position as shadow attorney general and apologised for any offence caused.</p>
<p>What, you might wonder, is the story? The BBC had an answer. Assistant political editor Norman Smith sombrely warned that the tweet played into a “very, very dangerous theme”. It fuelled concerns that Labour is “somehow dismissive, patronising, contemptuous of its own core voters”. Smith didn’t enlighten us further on how it achieved this though.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"535450556199075840"}"></div></p>
<p>And so the story found itself at the top of the news agenda, alongside the results of the by-election. It trumped an NHS teetering on the edge of crisis, sinking wages for workers, worries about extremism in schools and draconian cuts to police budgets. It was a no-brainer for the BBC.</p>
<p>And it’s true that the tweet has transported the Westminster establishment, MPs and political journalists into a paroxysm of excitement. Assorted politicians expressed their anger, dismay and fury. The Daily Mail raged at the “<a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2843501/DAILY-MAIL-COMMENT-Sneering-elite-set-bloody-nose.html">sneering elite</a>” and the Telegraph accused mainstream politics in general of <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11245808/Emily-Thornberry-White-Van-Man-and-Rochester-who-lost-the-working-class.html">losing the working class vote</a>. The Sun went to the effort of sending the owner of the three English flags to confront Thornberry at her home. She wasn’t in.</p>
<p>No doubt, Thornberry was a little foolish. The tweet was a joke that spectacularly backfired. But was it really grounds for her resignation? The fact is that the story was a piece of trivia. It was a non-event that was turned into a huge story by the Tory press.</p>
<p>The BBC’s Nick Robinson pointed out that it gave the right-wing press an “alternative narrative” for the Rochester by-election. While they waited for the polls to close, a bit of Labour bashing was the perfect distraction. But why should the BBC follow suit? Why should the national broadcaster confirm and validate that narrative? Surely the BBC, as a highly prestigious public service broadcaster, has different standards when judging the newsworthiness of a story. Or maybe it doesn’t.</p>
<p>It looks a lot like the sad case of Thornberry has proved Peston’s point. Seeing that everyone else was jumping on the incident, holding their front pages for the latest twist, the BBC fell victim to its “safety first” mentality. Better to follow the herd than look like you’ve missed the boat on what they think is the biggest story of the day.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/34550/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eric Shaw is a member of the Labour party
In the past he has received funding from the ESRC and Carnegie</span></em></p>Robert Peston, business editor at BBC news recently declared that his employer is “completely obsessed” by the agenda set by newspapers. The broadcaster, he argued, is constantly taking the content of…Eric Shaw, Senior Lecturer in Politics, University of StirlingLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/345052014-11-21T10:54:45Z2014-11-21T10:54:45ZUKIP wins in Rochester and Strood where biggest contest was for the wooden spoon<p>A UKIP victory was far from assured at the beginning of the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30140747">Rochester and Strood by-election</a> campaign, but by polling day it was as near to a political certainty as it’s possible to get in these volatile times. For pundits, the trickiest task was to guess which of the so-called main parties would come off worst.</p>
<p>Mark Reckless, who defected from the Conservatives to UKIP earlier this year won the seat for his new party by 2,920 votes, beating his old party into second place. But it was the race to seize the wooden spoon that provided the biggest surprise of the night.</p>
<p>For most of the campaign, the Conservatives looked sure to suffer the most. As promised, they campaigned hard in Rochester and Strood, with the prime minister leading the way. Their efforts had no noticeable effect on the opinion polls – except, perhaps, to increase UKIP’s lead. By contrast, Labour and the Liberal Democrats did their best to pretend that the by-election wasn’t happening.</p>
<p>In the end, although the result is undoubtedly bad for the Conservatives and for David Cameron personally, they have fared better than their two traditional rivals. Keeping UKIP’s margin of victory to less than ten percentage points means that Rochester and Strood can be filed under “hugely embarrassing” rather than “completely catastrophic”.</p>
<p>Analysts say that UKIP might have identified 270 seats that are more winnable than Rochester and Strood, but there are unlikely to be 270 candidates at the next general election who are former Conservative MPs fighting their old constituencies under the UKIP label.</p>
<p>On balance, the Rochester and Strood result makes further Conservative defections less likely. David Cameron and his allies can therefore take some comfort from national opinion polls which suggest that the general election is still up for grabs.</p>
<p>For Labour and the Liberal Democrats there is no such consolation. The Lib Dems, once the most formidable of by-election combatants, have crowned a run of miserable results with a return of less than 1% of the vote at Rochester and Strood.</p>
<p>It was predictable that they might leak support to Labour, but this by-election confirms that the Greens are soaking up plenty of defectors and some erstwhile Lib Dems are even voting for UKIP. The party’s only realistic hope is that the incumbency effect, which has helped UKIP at <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/clacton-by-election">Clacton</a> and now at Rochester and Strood, will allow the Lib Dems to survive as a significant parliamentary force after May 2015.</p>
<h2>Labour pain</h2>
<p>It seems scarcely credible that any party could out-do the Lib Dem disaster – but somehow Labour managed it. </p>
<p>Much attention has been focused on Labour MP Emily Thornbury’s social media gaffe, which saw her resign from the Labour front bench for <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30139832">tweeting a picture</a> of a home in Rochester decorated with English flags.</p>
<p>But this was only the clinching moment in a campaign which surely trumps the <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/bermondsey-byelection-1983-homophobia-hatred-smears-and-xenophobia-8508258.html">1983 Bermondsey by-election</a> among Labour’s darkest days.</p>
<p>Combined with surveys which emphasise UKIP’s appeal to disgruntled Labour voters throughout England, the ever-increasing SNP surge in Scotland presents the party’s strategists with a hideous nightmare. Labour’s chances of winning an outright majority at the next election – or even of forming part of a coalition – now seem to depend on an heroic effort from core supporters in its heartlands. But Labour has apparently been doing its best to shed such traditional supporters since the advent of Blairism in 1994. Indeed, UKIP will no doubt view these people as precisely the ones who are most likely to clamber aboard Farage’s bandwagon.</p>
<p>Apart from triggering Thornbury’s resignation, Twitter has supplied some fascinating insights into this campaign. In terms of attracting new followers, it was the Green Party rather than UKIP that fared best, having boosted its following nationally to more than 82,000 followers. The Greens attracted 1,692 votes. UKIP ran an energetic social media campaign but still trails the Greens with just over 72,000 Twitter followers. </p>
<p>For his part, David Cameron Tweeted about all of his unavailing visits to the Medway, while the Conservative Party itself maintained a studious silence. Cameron might be on the ropes, but this campaign proves to any doubters that he will keep throwing punches to the end. This unquenchable pugnacity might just be the most lasting impression left by the contest for Rochester and Strood, on Cameron’s party and the public as a whole. If so, the Prime Minister might end up seeing a predicted disaster as something like a blessing in a very heavy disguise.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/34505/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A UKIP victory was far from assured at the beginning of the Rochester and Strood by-election campaign, but by polling day it was as near to a political certainty as it’s possible to get in these volatile…Mark Garnett, Senior Lecturer in Politics, Lancaster UniversityHelena Pillmoor, Doctoral Candidate , Lancaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/344612014-11-20T14:45:55Z2014-11-20T14:45:55ZAs UKIP advances, modern politics could learn a few lessons from Aldi<p>Even in our always-on, wired, information-fluid age, some countries, some companies, some sectors, persist in inefficient processes because “that’s the way it’s always been done”. While some businesses are moving with the times, others are stuck in their ways. It’s true for some of the biggest supermarkets and even more true in the sphere of politics.</p>
<p>As another potential <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/rochester-and-strood-by-election">UKIP win</a> looms, Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats need to stop thinking like Tesco and start channelling Aldi. </p>
<p>Politicians seem to have taken the worst aspects of commerce (expenses, back-scratching networks, secrets and lies) and failed to adopt the ones that make corporations efficient and help them boost sales. They are the old guard supermarkets failing to adapt to newcomers in their market. </p>
<p>Innovative, consumer-facing commercial organisations are constantly looking ahead, adapting their marketing and communication strategies to fit the latest findings in behavioural science. They aim to refresh and renew their brands in a continuous development cycle. </p>
<p>A mainstream political party is, by contrast, freighted with ideology and dogma. It runs on consensus but also on coercion and concealment. It directs much of its energy at playing the game in Westminster, rather than producing any tangible benefit for voters.</p>
<p>Focus groups are widely used these days but not with the aim of discovering what voters want. Instead, they seek to investigate how voters can be manipulated to believe that what the juggernaut wants is also what they really want.</p>
<h2>The customer is always right</h2>
<p>Until very recently, consumers in the politics market have had nowhere to go if they didn’t like what was on offer. All the big brands were in essence the same and there was no real competition beyond them. Little wonder then that brand loyalty has waned, and fewer people are buying.</p>
<p>In one very important way Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats have become like Sainsbury’s and Tesco – they have started to take their market for granted in the absence of any meaningful competition. Markets in this state – mature, stable, have become vulnerable to disruptor brands. Newcomers can push into the market with a different model, a different message and a different way of doing business.</p>
<p>Enter Aldi, or indeed UKIP. The newcomer eats into the market by understanding what the customer wants, and promising to deliver it, simply and honestly. Don’t like it, don’t buy it.</p>
<p>The big brands resist at first by pouring scorn on these upstarts, pointing out their inadequacies, their lack of heritage, their dubious authenticity. But in a disrupted market, the old players must adapt or die. They seek to discover what their consumers really want and find ways to deliver – or become irrelevant.</p>
<p>The odd executive might go off script from time to time, as <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/nov/19/ukip-mark-reckless-immigrants-rochester-and-strood">Mark Reckless</a> seems to have done just a day before his by-election, but that can sometimes merely add to the newcomer’s maverick appeal.</p>
<p>The one act of business heresy that the big political brands commit over and over, to their cost, is to snipe at the disruptor. As irritating as the real Aldi might be to Tesco or Sainsbury’s, they know they can’t beat the upstart by badmouthing it. Every mention of the new kid on the block, even when couched as a negative, increases brand awareness. Nigel Farage and Mark Reckless have benefited enormously from free media time in the political rush to denounce them loudest.</p>
<p>Brand values are another increasingly important part of business – commercial enterprises that want to grow live by these for fear they will be caught out for shady practices and punished accordingly by consumers.</p>
<p>In the political marketplace, the disconnect between what is espoused and how the “management” behaves remains so wide as to strain credibility. Take Chris Huhne’s <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/09/chris-huhne-charged-78000-costs-speeding">speeding points</a> scandal as just one example among many.
Brands and companies no longer operate a transcendent model of “us and them”. </p>
<p>Smart businesses increasingly realise that they are their consumers, and vice-versa. They know that to hold on to customers they need to be seen to share their customers’ values, behaviours and aspirations. We buy because they respond to us, not make us respond to them.</p>
<p>Politicians of all stripes maintain that they care about businesses, particularly the innovative ones that could breathe new life into a flagging economy. Yet they don’t seem to care to stop and think about what qualities make those businesses so impressive, or how they might emulate them.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/34461/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Leslie Hallam is a member of the Green Party, and carries out consultancy work for commercial and non-profit clients.</span></em></p>Even in our always-on, wired, information-fluid age, some countries, some companies, some sectors, persist in inefficient processes because “that’s the way it’s always been done”. While some businesses…Leslie Hallam, Course Director, Psychology of Advertising Masters Programme, Lancaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/343892014-11-20T06:06:37Z2014-11-20T06:06:37ZIt’s surprisingly easy to oust David Cameron<p>Much speculation has surrounded Ed Miliband’s position as Labour leader since word of a <a href="https://theconversation.com/clueless-labour-plotters-need-to-learn-the-rules-of-opposition-34168">campaign against him</a> has spread. But less attention has been focused on David Cameron’s position as Conservative leader and prime minister.</p>
<p>He might seem to be under less pressure than his rival but there are <a href="https://theconversation.com/cameron-in-crisis-as-tories-glass-jaw-exposed-again-by-huge-commons-rebellion-13884">grumbles on the backbenches</a>. And it is far easier to oust a leader from the Conservative party than from Labour.</p>
<p>There is a long way to go before Cameron’s position could be considered to be really under threat. The economy is improving, the party is level with Labour in the <a href="http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9068">opinion polls</a>, and the prime minister enjoys a significant advantage over Miliband on <a href="http://news.sky.com/story/1365302/milibands-approval-ratings-hit-all-time-low">net approval ratings</a>. But Conservative rules on removing sitting leaders provide any critics with a clear and achievable method of evicting him.</p>
<p>Cameron is facing opposition from members of his own party, particularly when it comes to Europe. And the Rochester and Strood by-election has been another blow. Talk has turned to more potential defections now that former Tory Mark Reckless has been returned to parliament as a UKIP MP. </p>
<p>More trouble is brewing for the prime minister over the pledge he made during the Scottish independence referendum to maintain the Barnett formula, which provides favourable public-spending increases per head in Scotland compared with England. Up to <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/11232346/David-Cameron-facing-rebellion-from-70-Tory-MPs-over-Barnett-formula-vote.html">70 Conservative MPs</a> are reportedly threatening to support a House of Commons motion calling for a review of the Barnett formula. They claim it funds some welfare services that are free in Scotland but must be paid for in England.</p>
<h2>A simple guide to losing your leader</h2>
<p>The <a href="http://privatewww.essex.ac.uk/%7Etquinn/leadership_election_rules.htm#CONSERVATIVE_PARTY">process of removing a Tory leader</a> begins with Conservative MPs writing letters to the chairman of the backbench 1922 Committee requesting a confidence vote in the incumbent. </p>
<p>Those who write such letters are promised anonymity. If letters are received from 15% of Tory parliamentarians – which would be 46 MPs as things currently stand – then a confidence vote is automatically triggered. The vote would be a secret ballot of all 303 Conservative MPs. Cameron would need to win a majority of those voting to remain in post.</p>
<p>It’s a system that weakens the security of a leader’s tenure in many ways. Anonymity in both the letter-writing and voting stages offers cover to disgruntled MPs who might otherwise fear reprisals for their act of mutiny. Even cabinet ministers could make public statements of support for the prime minister but vote against him with impunity in a confidence vote.</p>
<p>The system also means that there is no need for a challenger to come forward to take on the incumbent leader. The first stage of the process is purely a confidence vote so no one needs to stick their head above the parapet.</p>
<p>If the leader lost the vote, a leadership election would follow and they would not be allowed to participate. So cabinet ministers with their eyes on the top job would not need to risk their careers by challenging Cameron directly – they could simply leave it to disgruntled backbenchers, or even to give a nod to their allies to begin a letter-writing campaign in pursuit of a confidence vote.</p>
<p>There have long been rumours that some letters have already been sent to the chairman of the 1922 Committee about Cameron. Worse still, these letters can remain on file for years until such time as the requisite number has been received.</p>
<p>If there were a confidence vote, Cameron would need to win a convincing majority to hold on to his post. While the rules stipulate that he would need to win a bare majority, a slim margin of victory could, in reality, severely undermine his authority and leave his position untenable.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, on the opposition benches, Miliband is relatively secure, regardless of what the press says. Labour does not hold confidence votes and the <a href="http://privatewww.essex.ac.uk/%7Etquinn/leadership_election_rules.htm#LABOUR_PARTY">party’s rules</a> require a challenger to come forward with support from 20% of Labour MPs before a leadership contest can be triggered.</p>
<h2>Expect the unexpected</h2>
<p>The current Conservative rules were used in 2003 to remove Iain Duncan Smith as Conservative leader. The party also <a href="http://privatewww.essex.ac.uk/%7Etquinn/conservative_party_leadership_elections.htm">deposed Margaret Thatcher</a> as Conservative leader and prime minister under different rules in November 1990.</p>
<p>It is true that Thatcher and her party were unpopular at the time but curiously, the six months before her removal had seen an improvement in both her own net satisfaction ratings and in her party’s support in the polls. The existence of these leader-eviction rules, and the fact that they could so easily be set in motion played a major role in Thatcher’s demise. Her opponents were able, without too much difficulty, to put her internal popularity to the test.</p>
<p>And indeed, some have said that she was deposed almost by accident. Some MPs may have voted against her thinking it would send a message to the leader without seriously endangering her position. Others who would not ordinarily have pushed for a change of leadership may have decided to vote for a change once presented with a ballot paper. </p>
<p>Cameron is unlikely to be the victim of an accidental defenestration like Thatcher but all it takes is a resentful reaction by backbenchers to bad news to set the process in motion. An event that seems unlikely one minute can quickly build momentum. Before Cameron knows what’s happened, he could have joined the ranks of past Tory leaders who were dispatched by their own colleagues.</p>
<p><em>This article has been updated following the result of the Rochester and Strood by-election.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/34389/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tom Quinn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Much speculation has surrounded Ed Miliband’s position as Labour leader since word of a campaign against him has spread. But less attention has been focused on David Cameron’s position as Conservative…Tom Quinn, Senior Lecturer, Department of Government, University of EssexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/343142014-11-17T11:40:54Z2014-11-17T11:40:54ZRight tactic, wrong target: Tories can’t beat Reckless with carpet bagging claims<p>You don’t want to vote for him. He grew up in London and went to Oxford, to study politics (of all things). He’s worked as a banker and as a political researcher. And he only moved here to become an MP, the swine.</p>
<p>This is the message being delivered to voters in Rochester and Strood on a leaflet being pushed through their doors ahead of the by-election taking place in the constituency on November 21. The leaflet is from the Conservative Party and it takes aim at Mark Reckless, the MP who defected to UKIP earlier this year.</p>
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<span class="caption">Reckless tactics?</span>
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<p>It’s easy to mock the leaflet and <a href="http://politicalscrapbook.net/2014/11/tories-attack-ukip-candidate-mark-reckless-for-attending-oxford-rochester-and-strood/">plenty have</a>. Reckless has held the seat for the Conservatives since 2010 and the party seemed to have been content to put him forward as their candidate again in 2015 had he not switched sides. </p>
<p>Voters may well feel confused about why Reckless is so terrible now if he was just fine and dandy as a Tory candidate. They may also be wondering why the Conservatives are criticising him for characteristics that would appear to apply to <a href="https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/533337209282519040">a rather large proportion</a> of the Conservative parliamentary party. Went to Oxford, to study politics? Who can they mean?</p>
<p>But just because something’s cynical doesn’t mean it won’t work. There’s plenty of research showing just how good that leaflet might be at pressing voters’ buttons.</p>
<p>For example, the leaflet talks about Kelly Tolhurst, the Conservative candidate, having gone to the local high school but doesn’t mention any university education. Mark Reckless, we learn, went to school in Wiltshire and then on to study at Oxford. As hard as it is for those who work in education to take sometimes, voters actually prefer non-university educated candidates.</p>
<p><a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1467-9248.12048/abstract">One experiment</a> found voters preferred candidates who’d left school at 18 to those who left at 16, although even those who left school at 16 are preferred to graduates. The experiment didn’t specifically look at Oxford, but I think we can guess what that’s meant to imply. It also found that studying politics and having a background in politics – just like Reckless – made voters think of candidates as more experienced but didn’t make them more likely to want that person as their MP.</p>
<p>Another <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1467-856X.12002/abstract">experiment</a> also compared occupational backgrounds. This probably won’t come as a shock, but people running local businesses are noticeably more popular than those involved in finance. The same study, incidentally, found that otherwise identical men and women are seen as equally electable by voters, it’s just that the men are seen as more experienced, while the women are more approachable.</p>
<h2>Keeping it close to home</h2>
<p>The key facet of the Tory message in its Rochester leaflet is local, local, local. All six of the bullet points describing Kelly Tolhurst focus on her local links. She was born and raised in the constituency, she went to the local school and runs a business in the area. She’s been a councillor where she could be found “fighting to make our schools better” (note “our schools”, not “your schools”) and she’s even got a six-point plan to improve her community. Reckless, by contrast, is presented as a carpet-bagger, or what the French call a parachutiste.</p>
<p>From the outside, it’s tempting to be a bit sniffy about this sort of local appeal. It all seems a bit privet-hedge, a bit insular, a bit parochial. But there’s plenty of evidence to show it matters to voters, and more than many of the other things that commentators often bang on about.</p>
<p>Being local was, for example, the top of a list of demographic characteristics <a href="http://www.palgrave-journals.com/bp/journal/v8/n2/abs/bp201228a.html">that voters say</a> they want from their MP. For <a href="http://revolts.co.uk/?p=750">many voters</a>, it is as important, or even more important than, having someone who shares their political views.</p>
<p>The experiments described above found that living outside the constituency (even if prepared to move if selected) was enough to generate a 15% swing against a candidate. And some work done by Jocelyn Evans, reported in a <a href="http://www.amazon.co.uk/Sex-Lies-Ballot-Box-elections/dp/1849547556/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1416134489&sr=1-1">new book on British elections</a>, found there was a significant difference when you looked at the locations of candidates in both local and general elections and their electoral success.</p>
<p>Looked at this way, that Conservative leaflet is perhaps more astute than it first appears. It’s almost as if someone at Conservative HQ has been reading the academic literature on this.</p>
<p>While the leaflet may be well pitched, it alone can’t propel Tolhurst to victory on November 21. No leaflet makes or breaks an election and in this particular case we have the added complication that Mark Reckless, as an incumbent MP, may already have a negated many of his supposed disadvantages. Even before his victory in the seat in 2010, he’d stood in its predecessor seat in 2001 and 2005. He may be a parachutiste, but he’s a parachutiste who landed safely some time ago and has now firmly dug in.</p>
<p>What’s more, some voters may well have the same mocking reaction as many other did on seeing that leaflet. The polls, the bookies, and most observers have Mark Reckless on course to hold his seat on Thursday for his new party. But even if the Conservatives lose, that leaflet is still smarter politics than it might seem.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/34314/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philip Cowley currently receives funding from the Leverhulme Trust for work on MPs and parliament. </span></em></p>You don’t want to vote for him. He grew up in London and went to Oxford, to study politics (of all things). He’s worked as a banker and as a political researcher. And he only moved here to become an MP…Philip Cowley, Professor, School of Politics and International Relations, University of NottinghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/342102014-11-13T16:02:31Z2014-11-13T16:02:31ZBritain First: the party taking far-right politics to new lows<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/64479/original/nx6g5j7y-1415884072.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Britain First is using military tactics to antagonise Muslims.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock Union flag</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-30000775">decision to grant planning permission</a> to build a new mosque in Dudley has come after more than a decade of wrangling in the West Midlands town. And the division caused by the arguments has proved an irresistible opportunity for Britain First, the new kid on the block in far-right politics.</p>
<p>Members of the party <a href="http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/britain-first-extremists-plot-pig-burial-halt-controversial-dudley-mega-mosque-1474294">announced that they planned to bury a dead pig on the site</a>, declaring that the Qur’an forbids any building on ground containing swine. And when it’s not making threats in Dudley, Britain First is standing candidates for public positions, including the forthcoming by-election in Rochester and Strood.</p>
<h2>Who are they?</h2>
<p>Although it is a separate party, Britain First does have links to the British National Party and the English Defence League. It was <a href="http://www.hopenothate.org.uk/hate-groups/bf/">founded by James Dowson</a>, a former BNP member. A Scottish Calvinist minister with close links to loyalist paramilitaries, Dowson was seen as a credible challenger to Nick Griffin’s leadership after the 2010 elections. Soon after though, he acrimoniously split from the BNP following allegations that he made <a href="http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/bnp-money-man-quits-after-1074247">unwanted sexual advances to a female colleague</a>.</p>
<p>In May 2011, Dowson linked up with with Paul Golding, another former BNP councillor, to launch Britain First, a party they claimed would protect British and Christian morality. The group was behind the launch of the Protestant Coalition in Belfast in 2013 – <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1467-923X.12118/pdf">a political alternative to the Ulster Unionist and Democratic Unionist parties</a> – but it only started to make real impact after the <a href="https://theconversation.com/woolwich-murder-the-view-from-south-east-london-14620">murder of British soldier Lee Rigby</a> in May 2013.</p>
<p>Posting a video on YouTube, Britain First declared its intention to place Islamist preacher Anjem Choudary under a citizen’s arrest, alleging that he was responsible for the radicalisation of Rigby’s killers, Michael Adebolajo and Michael Adebowale.</p>
<p>Until Rigby’s death, neither Islam nor Muslims had overtly featured in any of Britain First’s strategies or actions. In many ways it was conspicuous by its absence. But ever since, Rigby’s murder has remained a <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/04/26/electoral-commission-britain-first-lee-rigby_n_5217680.html">prominent feature</a> of Britain First’s campaigning.</p>
<p>Underpinning the group’s claim to be at the <a href="http://www.britainfirst.org/mission-statement/">forefront</a> of the fightback against the rapid growth of Islam in the UK is a somewhat unique understanding of Christianity. Unlike its far-right predecessors, which used Christianity in a tokenistic way, Britain First’s hierarchy has a far more apocalyptic ideology. For them, an <a href="http://www.hopenothate.org.uk/hate-groups/bf/">battle between Christians and Muslims</a> will lead to the end of civilisation.</p>
<h2>Military tactics</h2>
<p>As though in preparation for this battle, the group has taken an increasingly militaristic approach to antagonising Muslims. This was evident earlier this year when it started a <a href="http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/458094/VIDEO-Fury-as-racist-Christian-Patrol-drive-ARMOURED-CAR-in-Muslim-street-giving-out-booze">Christian Patrol</a> in Tower Hamlets in London. Members arrived in the borough in three ex-military jeeps with a banner reading: “We are the British resistance”. They then made videos of themselves emptying cans of beer outside a mosque during Friday prayers.</p>
<p>It has even organised at least one <a href="https://www.britainfirst.org/video-britain-first-self-defence-activist-academy/">“activist academy”</a>, where members were taught boxing, self-defence and martial arts.</p>
<p>Most recently, Britain First members have taken to entering mosques en masse – many of them wearing a uniform of a flat cap and branded coat. They film themselves refusing to remove their shoes and confronting worshippers and imams on a range of tenuously connected issues. These include Britain being a Christian country, the failure to stop members of Muslims participating in grooming gangs, the need to read the Bible and the assertion that Muhammad was a false prophet. Members even aggressively force Muslims to accept copies of British Army Bibles.</p>
<p>With these tactics, Britain First cultivates a clear and direct militaristic tone and ethos that carries with it a rather insidious and dangerous message. And underpinning that message is an eschatology that goes beyond merely using Christianity to differentiate between Muslims and non-Muslims. Its message is about redemption and ultimately, salvation.</p>
<p>How this particular chapter in the evolution of anti-Islam, anti-Muslim far-right groups in Britain will play out remains open to question. But as the ugly scenes in Dudley highlighted, the tactics used are going to become increasingly confrontational and sadly, increasingly vile.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/34210/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Allen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The decision to grant planning permission to build a new mosque in Dudley has come after more than a decade of wrangling in the West Midlands town. And the division caused by the arguments has proved an…Chris Allen, Lecturer in Social Policy, University of BirminghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/329102014-10-13T15:10:33Z2014-10-13T15:10:33ZWith by-election success and TV debates, it all looks rosy for UKIP – but remember the SDP<p>After one massive by-election win and another near miss, UKIP has been handed another leg-up into mainstream politics: <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29595529">an invitation to participate in one of the three party leaders’ debates</a> scheduled for the 2015 general election. Assuming the plans go ahead, Nigel Farage will take the stage with David Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg – against whose Liberal Democrats UKIP has been polling <a href="http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2014/04/12/ukip-at-record-high-lib-dems-at-record-low/">healthily indeed</a>.</p>
<p>The result of the by-election in Clacton was remarkable by any standard: to find a comparable by-election result in the record books, one has to go back to the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21556184">Bermondsey by-election of 1983</a>, in which Liberal candidate Simon Hughes took that seat from Labour on a 44% swing. </p>
<p>Along with the strong run that nearly saw off Labour in <a href="https://theconversation.com/humiliated-party-leaders-still-cant-deal-with-the-ukip-threat-32840">Heywood and Middleton</a>, Clacton will undoubtedly give a boost to the UKIP campaign in Rochester and Strood, where <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/11/mark-reckless-rochester-byelection-ukip">Mark Reckless</a> is bidding to become the party’s second elected MP. </p>
<p>And yet, there is still no reason to expect a wave of UKIP wins in 2015. In fact, the best precedent for what might happen to UKIP in 2015 might be the experience of the Social Democratic Party in the early 1980s. </p>
<h2>Striking out</h2>
<p>The SDP was set up in 1981 by the “<a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/march/26/newsid_2531000/2531151.stm">Gang of Four</a>” of former Labour ministers – Roy Jenkins, Shirley Williams, Bill Rogers and David Owen – when Labour swung hard to the left after its defeat in the 1979 general election. </p>
<p>A key element of the schism was over Britain’s continued membership of the Common Market, as it was then called, with the SDP leaders believing that Labour might back leaving Europe. Arguably, the split on the left over Europe in 1981 has become a split on the right over the same issue in 2014.</p>
<p>The SDP received enthusiastic support from the public and from much of the media shortly after it was formed and at one point in 1981 it led the other parties in voting intentions in the polls. Much as is happening now, two key by-elections gave a boost to the newly founded party. In November 1981 Shirley Williams won the Crosby by-election from the Conservatives and this was followed by a victory in March 1982 by Roy Jenkins in the Conservative held seat of Glasgow Hillhead. At its high point, the party had 30 MPs in the House of Commons, all but one of them being former Labour MPs.</p>
<p>However, in the 1983 general election, when Labour received its lowest vote share (27.6%) since 1918, the SDP fared much less well: the party took 11.6% of the vote, slightly below the 13.7% its Alliance partners the Liberals polled, and it ended up with only six seats. Interestingly enough, Roy Jenkins held his seat in Glasgow Hillhead, while Shirley Williams lost hers in Crosby.</p>
<p>The lesson of the SDP’s damp squib start is that Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system is very unforgiving for small parties. And while UKIP has been consistently running at 14-15% in voting intentions over the last year, a similar score in the general election of next year could bring a meagre return in seats. </p>
<h2>Think national, act local</h2>
<p>The margin of victory in Clacton was so large that it is likely that Douglas Carswell will win the seat again in the general election. If Mark Reckless does really well in Rochester and Strood, he may well hold on to that seat in 2015; but if he achieves a narrow victory, his future will be very open to question. </p>
<p>Nigel Farage himself has a good prospect of winning in his chosen seat of Thanet South simply because he is so well known, but the UKIP message runs the risk of being drowned out in a general election. After all, a by-election can revolve tightly around local issues, which tend to get drowned out during general elections by the noise of a national campaign. </p>
<p>There are other reasons besides why small parties do less well in general elections. The nature of the “ground war” at the constituency level is very different; in a by-election an insurgent party can flood a constituency with volunteers, whereas in the general election they will be dispersed over the country as a whole. </p>
<p>Confounding things further, the psychology of voting in a by-election often comes down to sending the government or the national political parties a message of discontent – whereas the psychology of general election voting is about choosing a government. And that, in turn, can crowd out minor parties.</p>
<p>This point is immediately relevant for any other eurosceptic Conservative MPs who are unhappy with the party’s stance on Europe and are thinking about defecting to UKIP. If Mark Reckless wins by a comfortable margin in Rochester, then it would be a good idea for these backbench Conservatives to follow their colleague’s lead and stand for UKIP in a by-election right now. In this way they can take advantage of the bandwagon while it is still rolling. </p>
<p>If they wait for the general election to switch parties, then their chances of winning under a UKIP banner will be much reduced. If UKIP wants a realistic shot at more than a couple of seats, they’ll have to jump ship now.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/32910/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Whiteley receives funding from the ESRC</span></em></p>After one massive by-election win and another near miss, UKIP has been handed another leg-up into mainstream politics: an invitation to participate in one of the three party leaders’ debates scheduled…Paul Whiteley, Professor, Department of Government, University of EssexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/325472014-10-07T08:53:37Z2014-10-07T08:53:37ZA brief history of defection: parties can stand a few more UKIP losses<p>The Conservative party is shortly to face a high-profile by-election this week in the wake of the defection of Clacton MP, <a href="https://theconversation.com/douglas-carswell-by-election-is-a-rare-and-honourable-event-31060">Douglas Carswell</a>. Senior figures in the party are understood to be <a href="https://theconversation.com/temporary-truce-called-by-eurosceptic-tories-in-wake-of-ukip-defections-32405">deeply concerned</a> about losing more members to UKIP. But the history of defections in British politics suggests that the Tories can probably stand a few more losses.</p>
<p>UKIP has so far attracted three Conservative MPs. Bob Spink <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7360118.stm">resigned</a> from the Conservatives to support UKIP in 2008. He did not resign his seat to cause a by-election, but he was defeated at the general election in 2010. Carswell and Mark Reckless have both left the Conservatives this autumn to join UKIP and have resigned their seats to prompt by-elections. Carswell will fight for Clacton on October 9 and Reckless’ contest for Rochester and Strood is expected to take place on November 9.</p>
<h2>Surviving the exodus</h2>
<p>Mass defections from Britain’s political parties are rare, but not unprecedented. So far, they have never proved fatal to the party which lost the defectors, nor have they resulted in the formation of a new party with long-term viability.</p>
<p>In the 1880s, the Liberal party lost a significant group of its MPs when the Liberal Unionists left over their opposition to Irish Home Rule. The Liberal Unionists eventually merged with the Conservative Party in 1912. And in 1931 the Liberals lost 24 MPs to the newly-formed Liberal Nationals, whose diminished rump eventually merged with the Conservatives in the 1960s. More recently, in the 1980s, the Labour Party lost a significant number of defectors to the newly-formed Social Democratic Party (SDP). The SDP attracted a total of 28 sitting Labour MPs and one Conservative.</p>
<p>The SDP won a total of four by-elections after the defections. It took Crosby in November 1981, Glasgow Hillhead in March 1982, Portsmouth South in June 1984 and Greenwich in February 1987. But these were all newly-won seats. The only MP defecting to the SDP who resigned and re-contested his seat, Bruce Douglas-Mann, lost his by-election.</p>
<p>To compare the SDP and UKIP might imply a troubled future for Nigel Farage’s party. The SDP recorded <a href="http://www.liberalhistory.org.uk/item_single.php?item_id=72&item=history">65,000 members</a> at the end of 1981 and peaked at 50.5% in opinion polls. So far, UKIP has just under 40,000 members and a high of 23% in opinion polls. </p>
<p>Despite its initial success, the SDP performed disappointingly in the 1983 general elections as part of an alliance with the Liberals, winning just six seats, and again in 1987, when it won just five seats. In 1988, the SDP merged with the Liberal Party to form the Liberal Democrats.</p>
<p>So far, the scale of defections from the Conservatives to UKIP is much smaller than the Labour exodus to the SDP. UKIP may, of course, attract more defectors, but the momentum seems to have stalled. If UKIP had another defector lined up, the end of the Conservative Party conference would have been the moment to reveal it. That no announcement came spoke volumes. Any party members thinking of leaving are now probably waiting to see how the forthcoming by-elections pan out before deciding.</p>
<p>Even if more defections are on the cards, the three main parties have all been in existence for more than 100 years (if you include the Liberal element of the Lib Dems). This does not guarantee that they will survive indefinitely, but it does mean that they all have experience of recovery from serious set-backs. Even a large-scale exodus to UKIP would not necessarily be terminal for any of them.</p>
<p>After all, the Liberal Party was reduced to just five MPs at its lowest point in the 1950s before recovering to a peak of 63 MPs. The Labour Party had 288 seats in 1929 but just 52 by 1931 yet went on to win the 1945 election by a landslide. And even after the SDP split, the Labour Party recovered and in 1997 won an even bigger landslide than 1945. The Conservative Party lost half its seats in 1997, but became the largest single party again in 2010.</p>
<p>A loss in Clacton or Rochester and Strood wouldn’t necessarily be the end of the world either. In October 1930 the Conservatives, under Stanley Baldwin – arguably the most comparable Conservative leader to David Cameron – rallied after losing a by-election at Paddington South to a right-wing candidate from the Empire Free Trade Crusade who was backed by newspaper magnate Lord Beaverbrook. In the event this was to be the Empire Crusade’s only by-election victory. </p>
<p>Whether UKIP’s crusade will get the party any further remains to be seen, but on current evidence, the likelihood of an SDP-scale split seems remote.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/32547/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alun Wyburn-Powell is member of the Liberal Democrat Party, but not an office-holder or elected representative.</span></em></p>The Conservative party is shortly to face a high-profile by-election this week in the wake of the defection of Clacton MP, Douglas Carswell. Senior figures in the party are understood to be deeply concerned…Alun Wyburn-Powell, Visiting Lecturer, Department of Journalism, City, University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/324052014-10-01T17:16:03Z2014-10-01T17:16:03ZTemporary truce called by Eurosceptic Tories in wake of UKIP defections<p>In recent days the Eurosceptic wing of the Conservative Party seems to have renounced its suicidal tactics. It took three defections to UKIP – those of Eurosceptic agitators-in-chief in the Commons, Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless and of the former deputy-mayor of London, Richard Barnes – to make the euro-rebels realise that the more they bang on about Europe, the more they help UKIP become a Westminster party and the more they risk their own seats. </p>
<p>Doubtless, <a href="http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/09/told-tories-birmingham/">the latest polling evidence</a>, which suggests that it will be very, very difficult for the Conservatives to obtain a majority at next year’s election, can explain that sobering effect. But the unity is fragile and the party leadership can’t rely on the rebels to stay quiet forever.</p>
<p>At the moment, the panic in Conservative HQ is real. The leadership anticipates more defections to UKIP and backbenchers fear for their seats. So it is not surprising that a substantial part of the Conservative Party annual conference was devoted to condemning <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/42ae9070-4655-11e4-8820-00144feab7de.html#axzz3EkDfZatx">the “unforgivable and dishonourable” behaviour</a> of Mark Reckless.</p>
<p>Potential defectors have been quick in their declarations of loyalty to the party and to the prime minister. There are nine names doing the rounds but most have rushed to dampen rumours about their future. The <a href="http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/09/dan-hannan-refuses-to-attend-tory-conference-but-promises-he-wont-defect-to-ukip/">MEP Daniel Hannan</a> – who believes the Conservatives should build an alliance with UKIP – has given an assurance that he is not planning to leave the party as have the backbenchers <a href="http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/09/defection-reflections-how-ukip-hijacked-tory-party-conference">Gordon Henderson and Chris Kelly</a>.</p>
<p>For the time being, the potential defectors to UKIP, but also those who like to foment unrest in the backbenches at every sign – real or imagined – of Brussels overreach, seem to understand the electoral dangers of toying with European fire. Even the arch-Eurosceptic, <a href="https://twitter.com/BillCashMP/status/515872517786193920">Bill Cash, admitted</a> that “if you vote UKIP, you get Labour, no referendum and even more Europe”.</p>
<p>But for how long will this unity last? This is the question that the leadership of the party is asking at the moment. Judging by the statements of the prime minister and other frontbenchers, no one seems to believe that this unity will be long-lasting. That is why Cameron and other members of the government spent most of the Conservative Party Conference sweet-talking the potential defectors and the veteran rebels with promises of “tough action” on Europe, immigration and human rights.</p>
<p>Cameron’s change of language was marked. He said he was ready to vote for Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union if he does not obtain the reforms he wants from Brussels and claimed to have no emotional attachment to the European project. And if this tough talk failed to steady the nerves of the most hard-core Eurosceptics, the prime minister had another gift. He waved the flag bearing of that other great legend of British Eurosceptism: the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/30/david-cameron-schools-should-teach-mainly-in-imperial-measurements">defence of imperial measures</a>.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/60522/original/b62vsf3f-1412173663.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/60522/original/b62vsf3f-1412173663.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/60522/original/b62vsf3f-1412173663.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/60522/original/b62vsf3f-1412173663.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/60522/original/b62vsf3f-1412173663.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/60522/original/b62vsf3f-1412173663.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/60522/original/b62vsf3f-1412173663.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Should I stay or should I go now…</span>
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<p>The prime minister has also tried to divert attention from the in/out referendum to areas in which he feels he can deliver. Immigration from within the EU is now at the top of his reform agenda, for instance. Here, Cameron benefits from a changing mood in Europe. The German chancellor, Angela Merkel, vouches for the integrity of the single market but contemplates the possibility of <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/19ceeada-b508-11e3-af92-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3EkDfZatx">restricting access to benefits for EU migrants</a>. But it could be a while before this produces results.</p>
<p>The second battle line drawn by Cameron is the European Convention on Human Rights. In his speech he announced that the next Conservative government would <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/conservative-party-conference-cameron-announces-plans-to-scrap-human-rights-act-9767435.html">scrap the Human Rights Act</a> to replace with a British bill of rights.</p>
<p>Cameron’s harsh language on Europe and promise to withdraw from the ECHR might placate the party Euro-rebels until the by-elections prompted by the defections of Carswell and Reckless, but if the results prove to be disappointing (and <a href="http://www.matthewjgoodwin.com/2014/08/why-did-i-choose-those-five-labour-seats.html">research suggests</a> they may be in Clacton), that truce may break.</p>
<p>More to the point, the underlying cause of Conservative defections to UKIP and parliamentary rebellions on Europe is the unresolvable schism within the Conservative Party. It divides moderate Eurosceptics who want to remain in a reformed EU and those who want to leave as soon as possible. As <a href="http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/09/mark-reckless-the-row-in-witney-that-made-me-lose-my-faith-in-david-cameron/">Reckless</a> attests, this schism is becoming wider because of a growing mistrust of the prime minister’s intentions.</p>
<p>The prevailing feeling in the backbenches is that the Conservative party leadership is not really committed to EU reform. That’s why Conservative MPs insist on pushing Cameron to spell out what exactly he wants from Brussels. The euro-rebels also fear that their extensive list of demands for reform – including a new EU treaty – are not taken seriously by the prime minister. By contrast, the government knows that it is next to impossible to deliver most of their demands. At a fringe meeting at the Conservative Party conference, the foreign secretary, Philip Hammond, was sufficiently candid to <a href="http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4221866.ece">admit that a new EU treaty is unlikely</a> before the referendum on EU membership in 2017.</p>
<p>Even though the Eurosceptics have other things to worry about at the moment, as long as the mistrust and the fundamental misunderstandings about the role of Britain in Europe persist, their antics will continue to periodically flare up. And each time they do, they destabilise the government a little more, undermining the party’s chances of securing a majority at next year’s elections.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/32405/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
In recent days the Eurosceptic wing of the Conservative Party seems to have renounced its suicidal tactics. It took three defections to UKIP – those of Eurosceptic agitators-in-chief in the Commons, Douglas…Eunice Goes, Associate Professor of Communications, Richmond American International UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.