tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/scotland-independence-9485/articlesscotland independence – The Conversation2022-10-26T09:39:01Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1930472022-10-26T09:39:01Z2022-10-26T09:39:01ZScottish independence: how Nicola Sturgeon’s pledge to rejoin the EU could impact a referendum vote<p>In its new white paper on the <a href="https://www.gov.scot/publications/building-new-scotland-stronger-economy-independence-summary/">economics of independence</a>, the Scottish government made it clear that rejoining the EU was central to its vision of how Scotland could prosper outside the UK. Rather than simply being a question of whether Scotland should be part of the UK, the first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, framed the choice facing the country as being “outside the UK, but inside the EU”, versus being “inside the UK but outside the EU”. </p>
<p>In short, any future referendum on independence would be as much about Brexit as it would be about Scotland’s relationship with the rest of the UK.</p>
<p>This, perhaps, is not surprising. After all, in the EU referendum in June 2016, Scotland voted 62% to 38% to remain in the EU. <a href="https://www.thenational.scot/news/20680808.support-rejoining-eu-skyrockets-among-voters-scotland/">Polls suggest</a> that support for being part of the EU is even higher now. Meanwhile, from the SNP’s point of view, the outcome of the Brexit referendum provided the clearest possible illustration of their claim that, as part of the UK, Scotland is at risk of having its “democratic wishes” overturned by the less progressive views of voters south of the border.</p>
<p>The question of whether Scotland could rejoin the EU if it left the UK was much debated in 2014’s independence referendum (the Yes side said it would, the No campaign that it would not). At that point there did not appear to be a strong link between voters’ attitudes towards the EU and their attitudes towards independence. According to the <a href="https://www.gov.scot/collections/scottish-social-attitudes-survey/">Scottish Social Attitudes survey</a>, 49% of voters with a sceptical outlook towards the EU (that is, they either thought that the UK should leave the EU or that the EU’s powers should be reduced) voted for independence. Only slightly fewer – 44% – of those who thought the EU should remain at least as powerful as it was voted the same way.</p>
<p>This pattern was also reflected in how people in Scotland voted two years later in the EU referendum. According to the <a href="https://www.britishelectionstudy.com/">British Election Study</a>, the level of support for Remain among those who voted Yes (62%) two years earlier was much the same as among those who had backed No (60%). </p>
<p>Since the early 1990s, the SNP’s vision of independence has been one of Scotland in the EU. Yet there has always been an element of the party’s support that wished to avoid both the constraints of EU membership, as well as the limitations created by being part of the UK.</p>
<h2>What has changed since 2016</h2>
<p>After the Brexit referendum, some voters began to reassess their attitudes towards independence in light of the decision to leave the EU. As the SNP anticipated, some who had voted No in 2014 and Remain in 2016 switched to backing independence. But these were counterbalanced by some who had voted Yes in 2014 but Leave in 2016, switching in the opposite direction to support Scotland remaining in the UK.</p>
<p>There was no immediate change in the level of support for independence following the EU referendum. But gradually, a link emerged between attitudes towards independence and backing for being part of the EU. By 2017, Scottish Social Attitudes was finding that 49% of those who were in favour of remaining in the EU were also in favour of independence, compared with just 41% of those who backed Leave.</p>
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<img alt="An EU and a Scotland flag flying in front of Westminster Palace, with Big Ben visible against a blue sky" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491308/original/file-20221024-1583-ax57v2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491308/original/file-20221024-1583-ax57v2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491308/original/file-20221024-1583-ax57v2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491308/original/file-20221024-1583-ax57v2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491308/original/file-20221024-1583-ax57v2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491308/original/file-20221024-1583-ax57v2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491308/original/file-20221024-1583-ax57v2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Polling on the Brexit referendum might indicate how another Scottish independence referendum would go.</span>
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<p>By the time of the 2019 survey, by which point it was clear the UK was heading for a “hard” Brexit, the gap between the two groups had widened considerably. Now, 65% of Remain supporters were in favour of independence, while only 43% of their Leave counterparts held that view. This rise in support for independence among Remainers was enough to push the overall level of support for Yes close to the 50% mark in the polls.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the eventual implementation of Brexit has seen the gap between Remain and Leave supporters widen even further. In the latest Scottish Social Attitudes survey conducted towards the end of 2021, just over a quarter (26%) of those who currently support Leave said they would vote Yes to independence. Two-thirds (67%) of Remain supporters expressed that view. In contrast to the position eight years ago, attitudes towards the EU are now an integral part of the constitutional debate in voters’ minds.</p>
<p>None of this, of course, necessarily means that Scotland is set to vote for independence in the event of another referendum. The country remains evenly divided on the subject. But it does help explain why Sturgeon seems keen on the constitutional debate being about Scotland’s relationship with the EU, as well as about its links with the UK.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193047/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Curtice has received funding from UKRI-ESRC. The Scottish Social Attitudes survey receives funding from the Scottish Government. </span></em></p>Recent polling indicates that the EU question is central in the minds of Scottish independence voters.John Curtice, Senior Research Fellow, National Centre for Social Research, and Professor of Politics, University of Strathclyde Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1600422021-04-30T12:02:25Z2021-04-30T12:02:25ZScottish independence: what’s at stake in May elections<p><em>This is a transcript of episode 13 of The Conversation Weekly podcast “<a href="https://theconversation.com/scotland-why-may-election-is-crucial-for-independence-movement-and-the-uk-podcast-159883">Scotland: why May election is crucial for independence movement, and the UK</a>”. In this episode, as Scotland prepares to vote in landmark parliamentary elections on May 6, we explore why the question of independence from the UK is dominating the debate. And a team of researchers working with fruit flies, has discovered a biological switch that can turn neuroplasticity on and off in the brain. What might that mean?</em></p>
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<p>Dan Merino: Hello and welcome to The Conversation Weekly.</p>
<p>Gemma Ware: This week, as Scotland prepares to vote in parliamentary elections on May 6, why the question of independence is dominating the debate. </p>
<p>Kezia Dugdale: If there’s a majority for independence you will see the SNP demand the right to hold a referendum and you’ll see Boris Johnson say no to it very quickly.</p>
<p>Dan: And – a team of researchers working in fruit flies, have discovered a biological switch that can turn neuroplasticity on and off in the brain. </p>
<p>Sarah Ackerman: Plasticity is really important for us to form and maintain connections in the brain. </p>
<p>Gemma: I’m Gemma Ware in London.</p>
<p>Dan: And I’m Dan Merino in San Francisco. You’re listening to The Conversation Weekly, the world explained by experts. </p>
<p>Gemma: People in countries around the world are clamouring for independence – or to secede from the nations that govern them. From Kurdistan in the Middle East, to Kashmir in India, or the Anglophone Ambazonia region of Cameroon. </p>
<p>Dan: Yep, there’s even a secessionist movement here in California, though it’s relatively tame in the grand scheme of things.</p>
<p>Gemma: In recent decades, some parts of the world have voted in referendums for independence. South Sudan became an independent country in 2011 after a brutal conflict, as did East Timor in 2002. </p>
<p>Dan: Elsewhere, independence movements have led to constitutional and political crises. In 2017, Catalonia in Spain held an independence referendum which was ruled illegal by the country’s constitutional court. </p>
<p>But the Catalan parliament went ahead and unilaterally declared independence anyways. This was accompanied by a brutal crackdown by the Spanish police and the eventual arrest of Catalan pro-independence leaders.</p>
<p>Gemma: And that brings us to Scotland, where there is loud and growing support for independence from the United Kingdom. Now Scots are heading to the polls on May 6 in elections for the Scottish parliament. </p>
<p>Dan: Scotland held an independence referendum seven years ago in 2014, and voted to remain in the UK. But a lot’s happened since then.</p>
<p>Gemma: Yes, and the Scottish National Party – known as the SNP – led by Scotland’s first minister, Nicola Sturgeon – is arguing that the circumstances have changed so significantly that they warrant a second referendum, or indyref2. </p>
<p>Gemma: If pro-independence parties win a majority in the Scottish parliament – Sturgeon will ask the UK government in Westminster, led by Prime Minister Boris Johnson, for a second referendum on Scottish independence. To find out more about what’s at stake in these upcoming elections, I’ve spoken to three experts, including one high-profile politician turned academic, to explain the situation. </p>
<p>Kezia Dugdale: Hello, I’m Kezia Dugdale. I’m the director of the John Smith Centre at the University of Glasgow, where I also teach public policy. </p>
<p>Gemma: Before that, Kezia was a politician. She served as leader of the Scottish Labour Party between 2015 and 2017 and represented Edinburgh and the Lothians in the Scottish parliament, for nearly a decade. I asked Kezia why questions about the constitutional arrangements between Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom are dominating the debate ahead of the Scottish parliamentary elections on May 6. </p>
<p>Kezia: So we’ve had a Scottish parliament since 1999. So this is the 21st year or so of devolution. The parliament’s very much coming of age and it’s matured and it has substantially more powers than it did when it first opened its doors in 1999. So it’s largely responsible for health, education, housing policy, justice and communities. It’s increasingly got more powers around welfare, certain powers to do with, for example, disability benefits, and also increasing tax powers. But the vast majority of the social security system, foreign policy, defence are all still reserved to the UK parliament. So is the constitution, but that doesn’t mean that it doesn’t completely dominate Scottish politics. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/brexit-has-changed-peoples-minds-on-independence-qanda-with-kezia-dugdale-former-scottish-labour-leader-159858">'Brexit has changed people's minds on independence': Q&A with Kezia Dugdale, former Scottish Labour leader</a>
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<p>So after the 2011 Scottish parliament elections, the SNP had a majority, and they used that majority to call for an independence referendum. There was a two and a half year campaign with the referendum taking place in September 2014. The no side won that with 55% of the vote to the yes side’s 45%. And we thought that that would be the end of the constitutional question, but I’m afraid that’s not been the case. Because it was a relatively close margin, questions around the settlement that the Scottish parliament has and it’s continued place in the United Kingdom have continued to dominate. And they’re dominating this election campaign. </p>
<p>So whether you are yes or no, what you were in 2014, what you are today, is still the biggest dominating factor over how you will vote in party political terms. So if you’re a Yes voter, very likely SNP, perhaps Green, if you’re a No voter, the vote splits three ways between Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats.</p>
<p>Gemma: Over the past few years, calls for a second independence referendum have been growing louder. To understand where the support for this indyref2 is coming from, we need to go back to what’s happened since Scotland voted to remain part of the UK in 2014.</p>
<p>Darryn Nyatanga: My name is Darren Nyatanga and I’m a final year PhD candidate at the University of Liverpool, where I’m researching the constitutional impacts of Brexit on the UK’s unionship.</p>
<p>Gemma: Darren explains that in the immediate aftermath of the independence referendum, the UK government in Westminster moved to devolve more powers to Scotland.</p>
<p>Darryn: So during the campaign for that referendum on independence, the three main parties in Westminster – so at the time that was the Conservatives and the Lib Dems who were in coalition together, and the Labour party – made a pledge to devote more powers to Scotland if they voted to remain within the UK. So they honoured this vow, it was known as “the vow”, by passing a law, known as the Scotland Act of 2016, which devolved extensive powers, including fiscal powers to Scotland, and it also insured the permanency of the Scottish parliament and the Scottish government within the UK’s constitutional order, something which meant a lot to nationalists, because the debate really was about Scottish institutions making Scottish decisions. </p>
<p>Gemma: But then, a few months later, the UK held another referendum, on whether to leave the European Union. The UK as a whole voted 52% to leave, 48% to remain, and the path to Brexit was set in motion. But in Scotland, 62% of the population voted to remain as part of the EU. </p>
<p>Darryn: So this meant that Scotland was taken out of the EU against its democratic will. So this is the point that the Scottish government have been hammering on in relation to their need to have a second vote on independence because for them there’s a significant change in circumstances prevailing from the 2014 vote. </p>
<p>Gemma: Economically, Scotland’s situation has also changed significantly since 2014. To find out more about the state of its economy, I called up economist Graeme Roy, a colleague of Kezia Dugdale’s at the University of Glasgow, where he’s dean of external engagement at the School of Social Sciences.</p>
<p>Graeme: The UK is one of the most unequal economies on a regional basis in Europe. But within that Scotland, outside of London and the southeast, the really strong parts of the UK economy, Scotland comes in pretty much next on most indicators. And it has core strengths in areas that you’d expect in things like energy with the North Sea, but also in other areas such as financial services, and that’s propelled it to be a relatively strong economy within the UK. There are challenges though as well, like many other parts of Europe: de-industrialisation, issues around social inequality et cetera. So it’s very much a mixed bag, it’s got its core strengths but its also got its challenges. </p>
<p>Gemma: You mentioned there the North Sea so you’re talking oil there but the oil economy has has actually shifted dramatically even in the last few years, hasn’t it?</p>
<p>Graeme: Very much so. So North Sea oil is fairly much in its twilight years. There’s still potential there for the next couple of decades but it’s on a much smaller scale than it has been in the past. The opportunity, and where policy makers are focusing their attention both at a Scottish and a UK level is the ability to shift into new forms of energy.</p>
<p>Gemma: As you’ve written in a <a href="https://theconversation.com/scottish-independence-referendum-why-the-economic-issues-are-quite-different-to-2014-154119">piece for The Conversation</a>, the economic questions were kind of a big part of the of the independence referendum that Scotland had in in 2014, but what’s changed since then?</p>
<p>Graeme: So quite a lot has changed actually. So firstly, there’s been quite a number of changes to the economic context. The changes in the oil and gas industry has removed a significant potential source of revenue for any future independent Scotland. Oil prices are lower and the tax system is now much more generous in terms of taxing less than it had in the past. And that really matters in a Scottish context because it’s got higher public expenditure than the rest of the UK so oil revenues would have been one way to help it support that. I think the other change is obviously COVID and Scotland like every other country in the world has gone through a tremendous economic upheaval. </p>
<p>I think the second thing is about the politics of all of this, and the politics have clearly also changed since 2014. Brexit being the obvious example of that, where in 2014 the argument was that voting to stay part of the UK was a way to guarantee and be, retain membership of the European Union. But obviously then the subsequent referendum in 2016, and the UK now leaving, has changed that. And that has a number of implications, in particular for issues around borders, issues around potential currency choices. The whole dynamics of that debate has changed. </p>
<p>Gemma: After a prolonged Brexit negotiation period with many twists and turns, the UK finally left the EU on January 31 2020. But the full effects of Brexit weren’t felt until January 1 this year, when a transition period ended and the new rules governing the relationship between the UK and the rest of the EU came into effect. </p>
<p>Graeme: The immediate challenges have been concentrated largely in a relatively small number of sectors so things like fishing and the ability to get products, fresh products to market quickly have been impacted negatively impacted by some of the challenges at borders during the switchover to the new Brexit arrangements. </p>
<p>I think the biggest challenge, though, I think for the Scottish economy, as for the UK economy, is less about the immediate impact of Brexit but more about the longer-term challenges. So about nearly half of all Scottish international exports go into the EU. We have an ageing population so we rely on migrants coming in to Scotland to help support our economy, and Scotland’s done well through universities and businesses with that collaboration with Europe. So it’s those things that will gradually be eroded over time that I think are the greatest concern for the Scottish economy.</p>
<p>Gemma: All this has increasingly boosted support for an independent Scotland. Here’s Kezia Dugdale again.</p>
<p>Kezia: Since January 2020 there have been 25 opinion polls on the constitutional question. Twenty-two of them have shown yes ahead of no which is very new. I think there were only two polls ever in the run up to 2014 that had yes ahead of no. So now you’re looking at for the past nearly 18 months yes being consistently ahead. </p>
<p>Gemma: There have been some recent exceptions, with a few polls showing no just back in front, which some analysts suggest may be down to the success of the UK’s coronavirus vaccine rollout. But in general, Kezia says the reason people have moved from no to yes, in favour of independence in the past few years, has to do with Brexit. </p>
<p>Kezia: What’s changed since 2014? Again you need to look at who they are. They are people age 25 to 45, tend to live in urban centres like Edinburgh or Glasgow or along the central belt, where at least two thirds of Scotland’s population can be found. They are educated to a university degree level, mostly. They are socially centre-left but economically centre ground or to the centre-right. So by that I mean there are supporters of gay marriage but they don’t want high taxes, right. So they’re that type of voter. They are passionately proudly pro-European in their identity and almost all of them voted Remain and they’re very angry about it.</p>
<p>So if presented with a binary choice and that binary choice is an independent Scotland in Europe with a progressive leader or staying in the United Kingdom led by, by Boris with a sort of “Little Britain Brexit” mindset they’re choosing the progressive independent Scotland in Europe. They might not like it. They certainly don’t love it but it’s better than what they’ve got.</p>
<p>Gemma: All these issues are now swirling around as Scotland goes to the polls on May 6, in an election campaign taking place in the shadow of the pandemic. Scotland relaxed some of its coronavirus restrictions on April 26, but still, this has been an election campaign like no other. I asked Graeme Roy what the pro-independence movement’s economic case for independence is now going into these elections.</p>
<p>Graeme: The case for the economics of independence is very much built around gaining powers of an independent country like many other small independent countries in Europe and using them in a way that is explicitly targeted to the challenges and opportunities within the Scottish economy. And they often point to other countries that they would like to be comparable to, so Denmark, Norway, places like that that they can say well look these countries are successful and arguably more successful in the UK in many ways, have better outcomes. If Scotland was to be independent then we could seek to follow their lead and have the same quality of life and same strong economy as they do. Of course that’s easy to say. The ability to actually do that is much harder. </p>
<p>Gemma: And let’s look at the flip side there. So the unionist parties, the main one being the Conservative party but also Labour is also a unionist party, is against independence – what is their argument, I guess for economically remaining part of the United Kingdom?</p>
<p>Graeme: One is their argument that Scotland actually does well within the UK. They would also argue that Scotland receives higher public spending per head than most other parts of the UK and therefore again that’s an advantage that Scotland gets by being part of the UK that would be removed if it tried to go on its own and pay for everything on its own. And I think the other strand then is just to, to highlight the point that any transition from the status quo to a new model would be challenging and there’d be uncertainty and particularly in a post-COVID world or when we’re trying to recover from one of the greatest economic shocks we’ve ever had, this challenge of trying to do that at that point in their view wouldn’t make sense.</p>
<p>Gemma: The SNP’s election manifesto says that the party will seek to hold a second referendum “after the COVID crisis is over” – a timeframe widely interpreted as being within the five year term of the next parliament, so before 2026. But under UK law, the Scottish government cannot agree to unilaterally hold an independence referendum. It must seek the permission of the government in Westminster to do so – via something called a Section 30 order. Here’s Darryn Nyatanga again. </p>
<p>Darryn: So the UK government has thus far continued to refuse to grant this order in council, with the prime minister, Boris Johnson, stating that the vote in 2014 was a once-in-a-generation vote. </p>
<p>Gemma: And if Scotland should choose to have a referendum on its own that might spell further kind of questions down the line?</p>
<p>Darryn: Yes, I think this would turn more from a political question into a legal question because the Supreme Court will probably be tasked with looking into the competencies of the Scottish government on, basically unilaterally, holding a referendum.</p>
<p>Gemma: If Scotland did decide to hold a referendum without Westminster’s approval, and then unilaterally declare independence, like Catalonia did in 2017, this could lead to serious questions about the legitimacy of the outcome. And damage any future SNP bid for Scotland to rejoin the EU. </p>
<p>Darryn: International recognition of a newly independent state is much more likely to be forthcoming if the independence process is perceived to have been legitimate. So for Scottish independence, then, it needs to be done in a legitimate manner. And the decision must be accepted by the UK, the EU and the rest of the international community. This is key because the Scottish government want independence, but with EU membership. So if the EU does not recognise the legitimacy of the independence, then they most likely wouldn’t be forthcoming in terms of accepting them as a member state. </p>
<p>Gemma: So the way it’s held really matters?</p>
<p>Darryn: Really does matter, yes.</p>
<p>Gemma: Nicola Sturgeon has ruled out making a unilateral declaration of independence. But this makes the results of the upcoming elections – and the size of the majority – all the more important. Here’s Kezia Dugdale again.</p>
<p>Kezia: So we have 129 members of the Scottish parliament, you’ve got 73 constituency seats. The remaining 56 seats are made up of eight regions which each elect seven MSPs proportionately, using a formula called the De Hond’t system. And this combination of first past the post and PR means that we’ve had a more colourful parliament than you would expect in the UK system. But this system of PR, where it’s called the additional member system overall, is designed to produce coalitions. In fact it’s supposed to stop outright majorities.</p>
<p>Gemma: And that is what happened, until 2011, when the SNP won a majority in the Scottish Parliament for the first time. It was this majority that then led the Conservative prime minister at the time, David Cameron, to agree to the Scottish independence referendum. At the 2016 Scottish parliamentary elections, in the wake of the defeat for the yes campaign in that referendum, the SNP narrowly lost its overall majority, falling short by two seats. But Nicola Sturgeon still remained as first minister of a minority government.</p>
<p>Ahead of May 6, the polls have the SNP well in the lead, but it’s unclear whether they have enough support to get an overall majority. Kezia Dugdale thinks this will be difficult.</p>
<p>Kezia: We’re now back in the strange situation where because it happened once people think it can be recreated, which is quite unfair actually on the SNP because they found the sweet spot in 2011, this imaginary sweet spot where they broke the system. It will be very difficult for them to replicate that. </p>
<p>Gemma: But the Green Party is also running on a pro-independence ticket, as is a new party, called Alba, lead by Alex Salmond, the former leader of the SNP who split from the party in bitter and controversial circumstances after allegations of sexual assault. He was acquitted of all charges in 2020, but the affair led to a flurry of other legal challenges and government inquiries that at one point earlier this year appeared to threaten Sturgeon’s own position as first minister. </p>
<p>Even if the SNP doesn’t win an outright majority in May, if more than half of the seats in the Scottish parliament go to parties running on a pro-indepenence platform, the pressure will mount on Boris Johnson to grant Scotland a second referendum. I asked Kezia what options Nicola Sturgeon has available. </p>
<p>Kezia: She has zero options because she’s ruled out what’s commonly referred to as UDI, a universal declaration of independence. I think she’s right to rule that out. So this all boils down to mandates and morality really, right? So if there’s a majority for independence you will see the SNP demand the right to hold a referendum and you’ll see Boris Johnson, I think, say no to it very quickly. The question is how long that no will hold for and what the argument that underpins it is.</p>
<p>So the first thing they’ll say is not during a pandemic. They might say not now, not ever, you said once in a generation. That’s a much riskier strategy for the UK government to take. And there’s a growing school of thought that says if the majority is big, if independence or a second independence referendum feels somehow inevitable, it’s in the UK government’s interest to go now rather than delay for a long period of time.</p>
<p>Gemma: She says that’s because of the current state of pandemic in the UK. </p>
<p>Kezia: As the health element of the pandemic crisis comes to a close. The economic element of the crisis just begins. There are serious concerns now about what happens to business, when the furlough payments end, the system that was supporting so many jobs. Huge number of lost opportunities for young people. A suggestion we could have seriously high rates of youth unemployment come Christmas. Knowing all that, the government are currently spending a lot. We’ve got one of the most right-wing chancellors we’ve seen in my lifetime and he’s spending like a left-wing socialist.</p>
<p>So there’s lots of money swishing around and there’s lots of money coming to Scotland just now and there’s lots of means by which you can demonstrate the value of the United Kingdom to Scotland just now, because of the receipts that are coming in to Scottish bank accounts, whether that be in government or elsewhere. In 18 months time that spending has to stop. It’s going to run out and the UK government will then have to decide what taxes have to go up and what public sector saving decisions or cuts have to be made in order to balance the books. So the longer you wait to hold a second independence referendum, the less advantageous the
circumstances are for the UK government to make the arguments they want to make.</p>
<p>Gemma: Your prediction is that she will ask for one. Westminster will say no. Do you then see there being kind of this, this big standoff or will there just be continual asks? How will it, how will it play out?</p>
<p>Kezia: Yes there’ll be a lot of Punch and Judy-style back and forth politics and every time the UK government says no, it will work in the SNP’s favour to be quite honest, because it reaffirms everything they tell the electorate about the UK government not observing the will of the people of Scotland. </p>
<p>Gemma: For Darryn Nyatanga, the UK is heading towards a constitutional crisis, where it’s quite possible that a majority of people in Scotland don’t want to be part of the UK, but haven’t got a way to leave. </p>
<p>Darryn: For the Conservative party, they are more than happy to continue with the current arrangements of centralisation, but with devolution. Longer-term, if Scotland is to remain within the UK’s union, then its constitutional settlement definitely needs to be reformed. So the best way to do so in my opinion is to radically alter the constitutional status of the United Kingdom as a whole. So moving from a unitary state where power is centred within London, so within the capital, to a federal state. So Canada, for instance, has proven that nationalism can be contained within a federal system. So the largest secessionist party in Quebec, despite spells in government, has so far been unsuccessful in leading the province to succession from Canada. So this is mostly owed to the fact that Quebec under federalism enjoys high levels of autonomy and central representation, something which Scotland lacks at the moment.</p>
<p>Gemma: I asked Graeme Roy what options might be put on the table, to alleviate the inevitable anger of the SNP and its electorate if Westminster continues to refuse Scotland a second referendum even if there is a pro-independence majority. </p>
<p>Graeme: So it’ll be really interesting to see whether part of any response from the UK parties and the UK government is to open up a conversation about what more powers could be given with the hope of trying to satisfy the people who might be on the borderline between wanting Scotland to have more autonomy and the decisions in Edinburgh to be taken at a much more local level and bespoke level for Scotland, but they maybe would be happy with that rather than going to full independence. </p>
<p>Dan: What always interests me about these kind of secessionist movements is that the people can vote and do whatever they need to do, but at the end of the day, the ruling government really has all the cards and that creates interesting scenarios.</p>
<p>Gemma: Yeah and whatever the outcome on May 6, politicians in Edinburgh and in London are gonna have to weigh up their options very carefully. </p>
<p>Gemma: If you want to hear more from Graeme Roy and Kezia Dugdale, you can listen to their podcast <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/0YQoD0wLwjz1T1ahaWOKnb">Spotlight, from the University of Glasgow</a>, discussing public policy and the political process through a Scottish lens. Search for Spotlight on Spotify to listen. </p>
<p>You can also follow The Conversation’s ongoing coverage of the Scottish elections by clicking the links in the show notes, where you can also find a link to a recent article by Graeme Roy on <a href="https://theconversation.com/scottish-independence-referendum-why-the-economic-issues-are-quite-different-to-2014-154119">how Scotland’s economic circumstances have changed since 2014</a>. </p>
<p>Dan: For our next story this week we’re going to join a researcher named Sarah Ackerman to talk about her <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03441-2">new paper on neuroplasticity</a> – and that is the ability of the brain to basically change its structure. Her team was running experiments in fruit flies to try and study why brains in young animals can change so much more easily than the brains in old animals. </p>
<p>Gemma: This heightened neuroplasticity when we’re younger is why kids can learn languages much more easily than adults.</p>
<p>Dan: And there’s still a lot researchers don’t know about this vital ability of the brain. Many diseases are caused by too little or too much neuroplasticity, so being able to turn it or or turn it off has some obvious medical benefits. Sarah and her team wanted to learn what controls these changes to help fight diseases, yes, but this work could also potentially unlock the super-powered learning that comes with a malleable brain.</p>
<p>Sarah: My name is Sarah Ackerman, and I am a post-doctoral fellow in the <a href="https://www.doelab.org/people">Doe Lab</a> at the University of Oregon. I’m really broadly interested in how the body makes and maintains a functioning brain. And specifically what I have been focusing on in my research really for the last ten years since I was a graduate student, is on this special group of cells called glia.</p>
<p>So the human brain is made up of billions of neurons that talk to one another, and this communication is what allows us to do what we need to do. But 50% of the human brain is actually not made of neurons, but made up of these other cell types called glia. And the fact that there are so many of them means that they must be doing something important, but they’ve been largely ignored by the neuroscience community for a long time because we just didn’t know what they did.</p>
<p>So I’m interested in how these glial cells are instructing the neurons to form these connections that allow us, for example, to move through our environment.</p>
<p>Dan: OK. So we’ve got the brain, 50% neurons, 50% glia. What are they doing? </p>
<p>Sarah: We know that there are lots of different types of glial cells. They’re present both in the brain, the spinal cord, out on our nerves, in our limbs.
And in general, we can say that they are necessary for the long-term health of neurons. And they’ve become really a focus of neuroscience research because there’s a lot of evidence that in different neurological disorders or neurodegenerative disorders that these glia are becoming sick and dying. So I think one of the most studied cases of this is in multiple sclerosis where you get loss of the glial cells that wrap around neurons in the brain. And when you lose those glia, the neurons die and then you end up with multiple sclerosis. And so we know there’s a lot of variety. They do a lot of things, but if we were to sum it up into one word, they’re there to allow neurons to survive for a long time. </p>
<p>Cause if you think about it, the neurons that are present in our adult brains, they’re the same neurons that were born when you were in the womb and so they have to make it a long time. And these glia are what are there to help them. </p>
<p>Dan: The importance of the cells that keep neurons alive – that has got to be huge. But your research was looking at something a little more specific than just the, like, maintenance, so to speak. What was it that you were looking at?</p>
<p>Sarah: Yeah, so there’s this one type of glia called an astrocyte and they’re called astrocytes cause they have this really beautiful star shaped structure in the brain. So if you, if you strain to look at them, you see these little stars kind of all throughout the nervous system and these are these astrocytes.
And specifically what I was looking at is the role of these astrocytes in neuro-plasticity. OK, so neuroplasticity is this big word, but all it really means is the ability of neurons to change their shape and to change their signalling strength in response to, for example, experiences. And so what I was studying is how these glial cells are shaping or instructing the level of plasticity that occurs in the brain at different periods in well, in this case, the fruit fly’s life, but hopefully this will extend into how this works in humans as well. </p>
<p>Dan: OK, so we’ve got neuroplasticity allows basically neurons to change. Why is that important? What does that mean for me?</p>
<p>Sarah: Neuroplasticity allows for you to learn and embrace new tasks. So you have probably heard the phrase “practice makes perfect”. So when we practice a certain task, for example, playing a piano or learning a new sport, this engages or turns on plasticity in the brain, and this allows those neurons to start changing and strengthening their connections so that you become a better player over time. And so plasticity is really important for us to form and maintain those connections in the brain that enable us to do different tasks.</p>
<p>Dan: Your work was looking at how astrocytes – those star-shaped cells – can turn off plasticity. So what do you mean turn that off? It sounds like I’d always want my plasticity on full crank, 100%, right?</p>
<p>Sarah: Yeah, that’s a great question. So we know that neuroplasticity is really, really strong in a child’s brain. So for example, I’m sure many of your listeners like me have tried to learn a new language at some point in their adult life and found it to be like just impossible, where children can pick up multiple languages really quickly. So what is the deal with that? </p>
<p>Well, in childhood, the brain is super plastic or malleable and that allows kids to learn new tasks and skills really quickly. But then at some point in our maturing brain, this plasticity starts to wane. And so the question is why? Why would we not want to be like super plastic all the time? Well, there’s some evidence that prolonged plasticity, beyond childhood, is linked or can contribute to neurological conditions where you see kind of the activity of neurons is not controlled well in the brain. So think of epilepsy or schizophrenia. And so there’s a certain point in our life where we want these neural connections to be solid. We want there to be a little bit of flexibility for learning and memory, but not so much dramatic plasticity that the connections are constantly rearranging.</p>
<p>Dan: OK, so we’ve got this need to shut down plasticity or control it or limit it in some way. Why fruit flies?</p>
<p>Sarah: Fruit flies are really an excellent model for neuroplasticity because while they’re simple, they have many of the same cell types, including astrocytes and neurons. And they have many of the same genes that are present in humans. And in fact, there have been six Nobel prizes awarded for research in flies that changed our understanding of how biology works in humans.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394317/original/file-20210409-13-1a039sz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A colorful microscope image of a developing fruit fly brain." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394317/original/file-20210409-13-1a039sz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394317/original/file-20210409-13-1a039sz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=342&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394317/original/file-20210409-13-1a039sz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=342&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394317/original/file-20210409-13-1a039sz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=342&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394317/original/file-20210409-13-1a039sz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394317/original/file-20210409-13-1a039sz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394317/original/file-20210409-13-1a039sz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In this image showing a developing fruit fly brain on the right and the attached nerve cord on the left, the astrocytes are labeled in different colors showing their wide distribution among neurons.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sarah DeGenova Ackerman</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>And so I wanted to use the fruit fly in order to identify different ways that the brain restricts plasticity to these earlier developmental stages or these young brains. And fly is a great model for that, because we have the ability to change the activity of neurons, in other words, to induce plasticity at different stages and see what happens under different manipulations.</p>
<p>And so what I found is that the neurons in the fruit fly brain are really plastic early in life as, as we know for humans as well, and then this plasticity wanes. But if I got rid of these astrocytes, these glial cells, these neurons maintain their plasticity much later in development.</p>
<p>Dan: This stuff could potentially have relevance to humans and people, and you know, potentially other animals too. But what are some of those potential applications? </p>
<p>Sarah: There are a lot, they’re all kind of a ways down the road, but in humans, like spinal cord injuries or neck injuries, for example, there’s very limited recovery for these patients because of failure to re-engage in the mature nervous system. So my goal is to use the fly to identify common and core principles that regulate plasticity so that we might take advantage of these pathways or try to find therapies or drugs that alter or work through these pathways to either increase or dial up plasticity or dial down plasticity whenever it’s needed. Or even, you know, age related, memory loss that doesn’t shoot all the way to dementia. All of these conditions are somehow influenced by plasticity mechanisms, just going awry, whether too much or too little or at the wrong time. And so if we can really understand the basic mechanisms that are shaping plasticity, this could become a way that we could really impact a lot of lives. </p>
<p>Dan: Awesome. Well, Sarah, thanks to you and to your undergrad for making a difference. </p>
<p>Sarah: Thank you. </p>
<p>Dan: You can read an article that Sarah Ackerman has written about her research on theconversation.com. We’ll put <a href="https://theconversation.com/astrocyte-cells-in-the-fruit-fly-brain-are-an-on-off-switch-that-controls-when-neurons-can-change-and-grow-158601">a link</a> in the show notes. </p>
<p>Gemma: To end this episode. We’ve got some reading recommendations from our colleague, Moina Spooner at The conversation in Nairobi, Kenya.</p>
<p>Moina: Hi, this is Moina Spooner from The Conversation, based in Kenya. We’ve had a couple of big stories in the East African region this week. The first is on Somalia, where there have been clashes between militia groups and soldiers of the federal government. Claire Elder, a lecturer from the London School of Economics and Political Science, explains how the current government’s decision on April 12 to seek a two-year extension has thrown Somalia’s fragile political process into disarray. With the situation now escalating, she argues that external mediation is needed as <a href="https://theconversation.com/somalia-toxic-elite-politics-and-the-need-for-cautious-external-mediation-159270">toxic elite politics take root</a> and the political window for a Somali-led process is closing.</p>
<p>Another big story in the region is Kenya’s announcement that it’s going to close the country’s two main refugee camps, Kakuma and Dadaab. This means that all the refugees will now need to be repatriated. It would affect over 400,000 people, most of whom are of Somali origin. Kenya is trying to legitimise this action by labelling the refugees as a threat to national security.</p>
<p>The pretext is that the camps are abetting terrorists, namely Al-Shabaab. Oscar Mwangi, an associate professor of political science from the National University of Lesotho, argues that in doing so, Kenya has <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-kenya-is-on-thin-ice-in-its-justification-for-sending-somali-refugees-back-home-159356">failed to comply with international law by compromising the refugees’ rights</a>. And that Kenya has also disregarded its commitments to international humanitarian obligations. That’s all for me for now. Take care and I hope you enjoy the reads.</p>
<p>Gemma: Moina Spooner there in Nairobi. That’s it for this week. Thanks to all the academics who’ve spoken to us for this episode. And to The Conversation editors Laura Hood, Steven Vass, Jane Wright, Moina Spooner and Stephen Khan for their help. And thanks to Alice Mason, Imriel Morgan and Sharai White for our social media promotion. </p>
<p>Dan: You can find us on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/TC_Audio">@TC_Audio</a>, on Instagram at <a href="https://www.instagram.com/theconversationdotcom/?hl=en">theconversationdotcom</a> or send us an email at podcast@theconversation.com. And if you want to learn more about any of the things we talked about on the show today, there are links to further reading in the shownotes, and you can also sign up for our <a href="https://theconversation.com/newsletter?utm_campaign=PodcastTCWeekly&utm_content=newsletter&utm_source=podcast">free daily email</a>. </p>
<p>Gemma: The Conversation Weekly is co-produced by Mend Mariwany and me, Gemma Ware, with sound design by Eloise Stevens. Our theme music is by Neeta Sarl. </p>
<p>Dan: And I’m Dan Merino. Thanks so much for listening everyone.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/160042/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
A transcript of episode 13 of The Conversation Weekly podcast, including new research on neuroplasticity in the brain.Gemma Ware, Head of AudioLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/608402016-06-21T20:07:56Z2016-06-21T20:07:56ZWould Brexit be followed by breakup of the United Kingdom?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127610/original/image-20160621-29573-1jx4mnd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">An uncertain future... </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Union Jack via www.shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>British voters head to the polls this week to decide whether to “remain” in the European Union or “leave” it. The <a href="https://yougov.co.uk/results/">most recent surveys</a> suggest the outcome is too close to call, with those favoring an exit holding a slight lead and many undecided. </p>
<p>The campaign has been bitter, although the murder of pro-EU Labour Member of Parliament Jo Cox by an <a href="https://theintercept.com/2016/06/17/far-right-britain-first-party-tries-avoid-blame-lawmakers-assassination/">alleged “Britain First” supporter</a> led to some soul-searching by all sides. As British actor <a href="https://twitter.com/hughlaurie/status/743891022430670848">Hugh Laurie</a> tweeted:</p>
<p></p><blockquote><p>I hate this referendum, for turning a question of unfathomable complexity into Lord of the Flies.</p>— Hugh Laurie (@hughlaurie) <a href="https://twitter.com/hughlaurie/status/743891022430670848">June 17, 2016</a></blockquote> <p></p>
<p>While the referendum is over the U.K.’s place in the EU, a vote to leave could have far-reaching consequences for the kingdom itself because its constituent parts – England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland – <a href="https://theconversation.com/divided-kingdom-how-england-could-force-a-brexit-even-if-others-vote-to-stay-52181">hold differing views on Europe</a>. </p>
<p>So the question is, if there’s a Brexit – a British exit from the EU – what happens to the regions of the U.K.? Does it mean a breakup might soon follow? </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/iAgKHSNqxa8?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">John Oliver on Brexit.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Trouble looming</h2>
<p>If you need a primer on the situation, John Oliver <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAgKHSNqxa8">has you covered</a>. The short version is that voters in the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland will vote on June 23 on whether to remain in the EU a little more than three decades after <a href="http://europa.eu/about-eu/eu-history/index_en.htm">joining it</a>. </p>
<p>One fascinating angle to this referendum for me, as someone who has long studied <a href="http://amzn.com/0472052594">Scottish and Welsh nationalism and its connection to the EU</a>, is what effect a Brexit vote would have on the United Kingdom’s own unity.</p>
<p>Recent polls have shown hints of trouble looming for the United Kingdom if Brexit happens, with its regions expressing disparate views on the referendum. In Scotland, which <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/events/scotland-decides/results">rejected independence</a> from the U.K. in its own referendum less than two years ago, a <a href="https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/0q7lmn19of/TimesResults_160613_EUReferendum_W_Headline.pdf">majority of voters say</a> they want to stay in the EU. These results suggest that a Brexit could be quickly followed by another Scottish referendum, this one on whether to leave the U.K. and perhaps join the EU. </p>
<p>A <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/08/brexit-threat-northern-ireland-border-communities">Belfast telegraph poll</a> showed that Northern Irish voters also prefer to remain in the EU by a wide margin (54 percent to 35 percent). Except for Wales, the periphery of the United Kingdom opposes Brexit far more than their English counterparts.</p>
<p>And while London may be unlikely to secede from the U.K., its voters also favor staying in the EU (45 percent to 40 percent). </p>
<h2>Scotland and the EU</h2>
<p>In a recent <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-scotland-idUKKCN0Z117D">interview</a>, Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon argued that given the strength of the remain vote in her region, it would be “democratically indefensible, if we had voted to stay in, to face the prospect of being taken out.” </p>
<p>As such, both former British Prime Minister <a href="http://www.itv.com/news/2016-06-09/tony-blair-sir-john-major-eu-referendum-northern-ireland/">John Major</a> and Chancellor of the Exchequer <a href="http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/george-osborne-scottish-independence-off-the-table-if-uk-stays-in-eu-1-4150884">George Osborne</a> have warned of a second Scottish independence referendum in the case of Brexit.</p>
<p>Sturgeon has not yet officially advocated for another referendum in such an event, but she is campaigning strongly for the U.K. to remain in the EU. And in part, she is using Scottish political history over the last 40 years to bolster the case. </p>
<p>One of the chief <a href="http://amzn.com/0472052594">complaints</a> of Scottish nationalists from 1979 onwards was that the Tories, then led by Margaret Thatcher, ruled the UK from Westminster despite never winning in Scotland. This democratic deficit continued until former Prime Minister Tony Blair’s victory in 1997 and subsequent devolution referendum later that year. If Scotland is pulled out of the EU against its democratic wishes, it may fuel another round of Scottish nationalism.</p>
<p>Looking back, one of the keys to the defeat of its 2014 independence referendum was the uncertainty of an independent Scotland’s role in the EU. As I argued in my 2015 book “<a href="http://amzn.com/0472052594">The European Union and the Rise of Regionalist Parties</a>,” this uncertainty over whether Scotland would be able to immediately join the EU contributed to concerns over the viability of an independent Scotland, which hurt the “yes” campaign in the referendum. </p>
<p>While I believe that similar uncertainty over Brexit and a U.K. breakup will likely favor the status quo in this week’s vote, if things go the other way, a new Scottish independence referendum in the near future seems likely, as <a href="http://www.scotsman.com/news/nicola-sturgeon-euro-discussion-possible-in-event-of-brexit-1-4160424">Sturgeon and former SNP leader Alex Salmond</a> have made clear. </p>
<h2>Northern Ireland’s new border</h2>
<p>Elsewhere in the periphery, the questions are just as sharp. </p>
<p>For Northern Ireland, not only has the EU played a <a href="https://theconversation.com/northern-ireland-is-vital-for-the-remain-campaign-61169">significant role in the peace process</a>, but the border and trade agreements between the Republic of Ireland and the United Kingdom would be fundamentally challenged after Brexit. As the <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/09/how-would-brexit-affect-northern-ireland-and-scotland/">Telegraph reports</a>, if Brexit occurred, the boundary between Ireland and Northern Ireland – which currently allows free flow of trade and travel – would have to be strengthened. </p>
<p>The border would then be an external EU border, requiring more controls on either side to prevent unwanted migration and monitor customs flow. Any additional restrictions on immigration increase transactions costs and hinder trade and travel, as <a href="http://www.occ.ca/Publications/Cost-of-Border-Delays-to-Ontario_May-2004.pdf">residents along the American-Canadian border experienced after 9/11</a>. </p>
<p>Though the threat of an independence referendum in Northern Ireland does not seem to be in the cards (despite the wishes of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/21/northern-ireland-fear-brexit-conflict-good-friday-agreement-eu">Sinn Fein</a>), the risks and uncertainty associated with Brexit will undoubtedly affect relations in the region. A return to violence is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/21/northern-ireland-fear-brexit-conflict-good-friday-agreement-eu">not out of the question</a>.</p>
<h2>Weighing the odds of a Brexit</h2>
<p>Despite my own views on the likely outcome of the June 23 vote, as noted above, polls suggest Brexit might win. </p>
<p>Similar to what <a href="http://eup.sagepub.com/content/6/1/59.abstract">research</a> showed in earlier EU referendums in Netherlands and Denmark, <a href="https://theconversation.com/brexit-and-benefits-why-leaving-the-eu-wont-solve-britains-migration-issues-60916">anti-immigration attitudes</a> are a <a href="http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2016/06/21/which-argument-will-win-the-referendum-immigration-or-the-economy/">key driver of Brexit votes</a>. But a major uncertainty about the referendum vote is turnout. </p>
<p>According to the polling firm <a href="https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/0q7lmn19of/TimesResults_160613_EUReferendum_W_Headline.pdf">YouGov</a>, the youngest voters (18-24) are the most supportive of remaining in the EU (60 percent for “remain”), while older ones (65+) are far more euroskeptical (59 percent for “leave”). </p>
<p>At the same time, young people are less likely to actually vote. Just 56 percent of 18-24-year-olds say they would be absolutely certain to vote, compared with 86 percent of 65+ voters. Thus, getting out the youth vote is crucial to the remain campaign’s success.</p>
<p>That being said, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/betting-on-brexit-stakes-high-but-the-big-money-backs-remain-61318">betting markets</a> suggest that a vote to remain is much more likely than a vote for Brexit. What makes them so sure despite the results of recent polling? Most significantly, risk aversion in British referendums tends to favor the status quo. Basically, voters <a href="http://politicscounter.com/?p=77">fear the risks associated with change</a> more when they are in the voting booth than when they are responding to polls. </p>
<p>And, as historian Timothy Garton Ash argues in a <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/feb/20/how-to-argue-against-brexit-eu-fate-europe-uk-at-stake">Guardian op-ed</a>, the uncertainty and risks associated with Brexit are tremendous, with <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-is-the-academic-consensus-on-the-cost-of-brexit-being-ignored-59540">most economists agreeing</a> that there would be serious short- and medium-term adverse consequences for the British economy.</p>
<p>In <a href="http://amzn.com/0472052594">my own work on the topic</a>, I’ve shown how actual voting in referendums can differ substantially from what the <a href="https://theconversation.com/can-opinion-polls-ever-be-accurate-probably-not-61097">survey polls suggest</a>, such as in the 1979 campaign to devolve powers to Scotland and more recently in the 2014 Scottish independence referendum. Thus, history suggests that the vote to remain will make up some ground on referendum day. </p>
<h2>But if voters thumb their nose at history…</h2>
<p>Hypothetically, though, if the leave campaign wins, what would that mean for the U.K.? </p>
<p>In the short run, the border issues between Northern Ireland and Ireland would be part of the messy and complicated divorce proceedings and involve the EU, U.K. and Ireland. In the longer term, if the EU/U.K. breakup weakens Irish dependence on the U.K. and leads to a greater continental focus for Ireland, then Northern Irish voters may reconsider whether Ireland or the U.K. is a better fit.</p>
<p>In Scotland, the short-run story seems similar. The latest polling suggests that Scottish voters would be more likely to take a wait-and-see approach rather than immediately opt for a new independence referendum. At <a href="http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2016/06/could-brexit-lead-to-indyref2/">whatscotlandthinks.org</a>, political scientist John Curtice has compiled eight recent polls that show a slight point swing in favor of independence in the case of Brexit. However, the swing is not quite enough to hit the 60 percent threshold that the Scottish National Party has said it would need to trigger a new independence referendum. </p>
<p>However, these hypothetical polls in Scotland are just that, hypotheticals. If the remain camp is right and Brexit leads to a <a href="https://theconversation.com/two-big-flaws-in-the-economists-for-brexit-plan-60878">dramatic recession</a> and decreased economic growth, then a downturn that can be directly linked to membership in the United Kingdom will increase support for a second referendum. </p>
<p>In short, the costs of Brexit for the United Kingdom will reverberate for years to come.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/60840/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Seth Jolly does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The UK’s regions – England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland – hold very different views about whether to remain in the EU, which means the country might not survive a Brexit in its current form.Seth Jolly, Associate Professor of Political Science, Syracuse UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/314932014-09-17T13:22:16Z2014-09-17T13:22:16ZAn independence state of mind: a view of Scotland’s big decision from Edinboro, PA<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/59274/original/6x53txz6-1410946183.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A special relationship.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/flickr4jazz/13660791675">Jazz Guy/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In my younger years, I would’ve jumped at the chance to vote Yes for Scotland’s independence, and even wrote a poem to that effect:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Tree of being<br>
Roots of been<br>
Branches of to be<br>
Scotland now<br>
As Scotland then<br>
Scotland shall be free<br>
We weave the present<br>
From ancestors past<br>
Toward children’s future free<br>
Tree of being<br>
Roots of been<br>
Branches of to be.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>My attitude has tempered with time, and like many Americans who feel a deep affinity with Scotland, I am stuck somewhere in a haze between Yes and No. Thanks to Val McDermid, I now have a good word for my situation: “swithering,” hopelessly adrift. But the allure of freedom still tugs at the heartstrings.</p>
<p>I remember reciting Robert Burns’ “<a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/arts/robertburns/works/my_hearts_in_the_highlands/">My Heart’s in the Highlands</a>” in fourth grade, gazing longingly at the accompanying picture of a clansman looking out over the hills, as my mind began to equate Scotland with freedom. Of course, that image was completely make-believe, shaped from Burns’s words and an artist’s picture, with no experience of the real thing whatsoever. </p>
<p>We can argue over how much of current Scots’ beliefs and self-image are make-believe – not in a fairy tale sense, but in the sense of a socially constructed interpretation of reality – but all our cultural identities, with their accompanying stories and symbols, are always social fabrications, and so, inevitably, will be the meanings and reasons behind why Scots vote Yes or No. </p>
<p>Burns was certainly aware of this drama parading before us, and <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/arts/robertburns/works/a_mans_a_man_for_a_that/">wrote</a> that a man of independent mind “looks and laughs at a’ that.”</p>
<p>We all live in fogs of symbols, steeped in perpetuated myths. One person’s imagined Scotland, romanticised and antiquated in the mould of “Braveheart”, is another’s economic tradition, steeped in ideas handed down from Adam Smith. A contemporary clansman may sing of sending King Edward’s army home, while a Yes voter just wants the Italian loafer of a London money-man off his neck. Both are living a dream, some dramatic, others all business. </p>
<h2>Living the dream</h2>
<p>“Scottish” is big business in North America, with hundreds of Highland games held throughout the year in the US and Canada, several St Andrew’s Societies across the land, and thousands of single malt drams tipped at Burns Suppers every January. Even <a href="http://www.tartanday.org/">Tartan Day</a>, April 6, is growing in prominence as a day of parades, massed pipe bands, and celebrations of America’s Caledonian heritage. </p>
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<p>Many Americans who identify with things Scottish have a love affair with the idea of freedom. We sing “Flower of Scotland” at the opening ceremonies, and “Auld Lang Syne” as we hold hands and collapse circles to close the Robert Burns Scottish Club’s dinner each winter. Some sing “Scots Wha Hae” with the gusto of a true believer.</p>
<p>The Scots’ struggles for freedom have deep resonance for many Americans. In some sense, our colonies carried out Scotland’s vision, our independence a sort of spiritual extension of the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/scottishhistory/independence/features_independence_arbroath.shtml">Declaration of Arbroath</a>.</p>
<p>Today, our enactments of “Scottishness” range from the wholly pretend to the authentic, rampant brigadoonery to thoughtful cultural awareness — some living the fantasy of Mel Gibson’s William Wallace, others living here and now and in this moment with <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/profiles/3YbRQ6DbdwhCVyzFYG9dc02/liz-lochhead">Liz Lochhead</a>. There’s no saying, really, whose real is more real.</p>
<p>I’ve been casually and unscientifically polling people on either side of the ocean, during our university’s study abroad programme in Scotland last month and back home in the States. Many who I asked leaned to Yes – but in the US, it’s so difficult to say No without just sounding pessimistic.</p>
<p>But what are they saying Yes to? Today’s chains are not about slavery and oppressors and usurpers — or are they? For many, perhaps independence is more a state of mind, symbolic more than real. After all, whatever the result of the referendum, interdependency will still be central; Scotland’s relationships with the UK and the rest of the world will still make all the difference to Scottish lives everywhere whether Scotland is an independent nation or not.</p>
<p>Throughout the study abroad programme we ran this summer, our travellers were most impressed by that wonderfully witty and egoless sense of humour that distinguishes the Scottish psyche. We can only hope that no matter what the outcome of the vote, Scots will still look and laugh at a’ that.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/31493/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tim Thompson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In my younger years, I would’ve jumped at the chance to vote Yes for Scotland’s independence, and even wrote a poem to that effect: Tree of being Roots of been Branches of to be Scotland now As Scotland…Tim Thompson, Professor of Communication Studies, Edinboro UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/317242014-09-17T00:37:14Z2014-09-17T00:37:14ZWhat a Scottish ‘yes’ vote would mean for Australian markets<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/59204/original/n89rqspb-1410911586.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">All eyes are on tomorrow's Scottish independence vote, currency traders among them.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Adrian Clark/Flickr</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A “yes” vote to Scottish independence on September 18 would mean a great many things for Scotland, and also for England. But what would it mean for Australian business and financial markets?</p>
<p>It’s tempting to say “very little” — what do internal politics half a globe away have to do with us? Yet the Australian dollar strengthened markedly against the pound last week, almost surely due to a poll suggesting that the “yes” vote was ahead 47-45%.</p>
<p>To begin to understand what Scottish independence might do to Australian firms and markets it’s important to understand what it would do to Scotland and England. The key economic question here is what currency the Scots would use.</p>
<p>The pro-independence “team” has been pretty clear about this. They’ll keep using the pound. And it’s true that England can’t stop them — just as Australia can’t stop New Zealand from using the Aussie dollar.</p>
<p>At first this sounds sensible — the pound is a big, liquid currency. The Haggis — or whatever a Scottish currency would be called — would not be. Case closed, right?</p>
<p>Actually, no. Having a common currency without economic and political integration is a very, very dangerous thing. Monetary policy would be set by the Bank of England, presumably without reference to Scottish economic conditions. So if there was a recession in Scotland one would want lower interest rates, but unless England was also in recession of a similar magnitude the Bank of England would be unlikely to cut rates. </p>
<p>Worse, losing control of the ability to print money means that if Scottish debt got out of control it could not be inflated away. Ask Spain how that works out.</p>
<h2>The risk for banks</h2>
<p>Worse still, Scottish banks would no longer be implicitly guaranteed by England. This is a huge deal. </p>
<p>The events of 2008 taught us how quickly modern-day bank runs can happen, how devastating the effects can be, and how only overwhelming credibility can prevent disaster. Scotland wouldn’t have that — and England would have no incentive to help out. Even if England wanted to, markets would have to believe it, and that’s far from a sure thing.</p>
<p>So it’s clear Scotland would be in a dangerous economic position — not obviously in trouble right away, but without any macroeconomic fire extinguishers if trouble arises.</p>
<p>This is a potential worry for major Australian exporters to Scotland — but there just aren’t very many of those. Australian companies with operations in Scotland could be affected. </p>
<p>A notable example is National Australia Bank, whose subsidiary Clydesdale Bank is located in Scotland and could face higher borrowing costs under independence. NAB has said it would seek to <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-12/nab-clydesdale-bank-plans-to-leave-independent-scotland/5738822">shift</a> Clydesdale bank’s corporate registration to England in the event of a “yes” vote. But even in that case it’s a small part of the NAB.</p>
<p>The bigger concern would be if independence affects England in a significant way, since this is a bigger trading partner for Australia. As we saw last week, markets have rightly been concerned about the impact on England. At the very least there would be an 18-month plus process of “demerging” two countries, a process that would be complicated and distracting.</p>
<h2>Keep calm</h2>
<p>Yet, whatever the impact on England, it’s hard to see how it would materially impact Australian business. The pound might weaken relative to the Australian dollar, potentially hurting Australian exporters. Having said that, we would all do well to heed former treasury secretary Ken Henry’s advice on Tuesday to be less focused on the real exchange rate in this country. The impact of a modest devaluation of the pound just won’t make much difference.</p>
<p>Could independence lead to a major blow-up of the English economy? As we learnt in 2008, a major problem in any significant economy can quickly reverberate around the world. We are all interconnected now. A big problem in England could be a big problem for world financial markets, Australia’s among them.</p>
<p>This is possible, but it seems highly unlikely. England is a very large economy with its own currency and a broad web of international economic connections. Scotland is close, historic, and important – but independence is not likely to lead to an economic meltdown in England.</p>
<p>Perhaps it could change politics in England in a big way and this could have an effect. Perhaps a more conservative Tory leader would emerge. And perhaps that would lead to different economic policies. But that’s a lot of perhapses.</p>
<p>Demerging two countries would be wrenching. It would affect those countries — especially Scotland — in lots of ways, including economically. </p>
<p>Whatever the pros of a “yes” vote for Scotland, it would bring with it huge economic risks. And some for England, too. For Australia and Australian businesses, the risk is small.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/31724/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Holden is an Australian Research Council Future Fellow.</span></em></p>A “yes” vote to Scottish independence on September 18 would mean a great many things for Scotland, and also for England. But what would it mean for Australian business and financial markets? It’s tempting…Richard Holden, Professor of Economics, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/316572014-09-15T10:24:33Z2014-09-15T10:24:33ZFor universities’ sake, let it be No to an independent Scotland<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/58913/original/dnhqg9y7-1410531657.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">What does the future hold for Scottish universities?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/leonghongrui/11503032853/sizes/l">alvin.leong</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The impact of Scottish independence on the university sector has been a mere footnote during the referendum campaign. That’s not surprising when there are bigger issues at stake. But as the referendum day draws ever closer <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/09/12/uk-scotland-independence-idUKKBN0H60M620140912">the polls have narrowed</a>. No longer is the consequence of Scottish independence just an interesting dinner party topic. It is now a possibility. So what would independence mean for the higher education sector? </p>
<p>Any attention on universities during the campaign has been on fees. <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-29054034">Scottish Nationalist politicians</a> insist that the status quo will remain - Scottish and EU students outside of the rest of the UK have their £1820 fees paid for by the government in Holyrood; English students on the other hand are charged up to £9000. </p>
<p>But Yes campaigners are misguided. This discriminatory approach seems unlikely to continue in an independent Scotland. Student mobility is enshrined in EU law, as is the right not to be discriminated against on the grounds of nationality. There is absolutely no precedent of an EU member state successfully applying for derogation from the provisions on student mobility.</p>
<p>So assuming an independent Scotland becomes a member of the EU, students from England, Wales and Northern Ireland will enjoy the same privileges as their Scottish peers, putting huge pressure on the Scottish higher education budget. Universities in Scotland receive around £150 million from rUK students, but that cost is likely to be much more in an independent Scotland with no tuition fees because Scottish universities would become extraordinarily attractive. </p>
<p>After all, why go to Durham or Newcastle and pay £9000 a year when you could go to St Andrews or Edinburgh and pay nothing? Scottish universities would be swamped with highly qualified applicants from rUK reducing available places for Scottish students.</p>
<p>The Scottish government would then have the choice of Scottish taxpayers subsiding English students or introducing tuition fees. It would surely be the height of irony if independence forced the Scottish government to copy, or come close to copying England’s higher education policy?</p>
<h2>Research at risk</h2>
<p>But fees aren’t the only consideration. Scottish institutions attract a disproportionate share of UK Research Council Funding, yet they will no longer be eligible. While Vice-Chancellors in Scotland are pleading for a retained UK research zone, their plea will go unheeded – would English taxpayers accept paying for research and (ultimately) jobs in a foreign country?</p>
<p>Scotland also benefits from Britain’s place in the world and from having UK universities in the top 10 globally. The reputations of all British universities profit from our place as a leader in education and research, and while Scotland’s universities are excellent they do not comprise the world’s elite. </p>
<p>The issues around higher education are similar in a way to the debate on the economy. As a Scot I have a pride and belief that Scotland could make a good fist of economic prosperity on its own. I too have no doubt that Scotland’s universities would continue to do well. But isn’t Scotland better off within the UK – maintaining the freedoms of devolution and the wider reputation and resources of Britain as a whole? To me it’s a no brainer. Scotland’s universities are better off in the Union.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/31657/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Quintin McKellar does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The impact of Scottish independence on the university sector has been a mere footnote during the referendum campaign. That’s not surprising when there are bigger issues at stake. But as the referendum…Quintin McKellar, Vice Chancellor, University of HertfordshireLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/315312014-09-10T12:19:17Z2014-09-10T12:19:17ZHow Rupert Murdoch is sticking his oar into Scotland’s independence referendum<p>On September 6, the evening before the Sunday Times published the <a href="http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/09/07/scotland-yes-blitzkrieg-wipes-out-no-lead/">YouGov opinion poll on Scottish independence</a> in which the Yes campaign was reported to be on 51% against the “No” camp on 49%, Rupert Murdoch tweeted: “London Times will shock Britain and more with reliable new poll on Scottish independence. If right on 18th vote everything up for grabs.” He later followed this up with: “Scottish independence means huge black eye for whole political establishment, especially Cameron and Milliband (sic).”</p>
<p>These were the clearest indications yet that the executive chairman of News Corp appears to be positioning himself firmly in Alex Salmond’s pro-independence Yes camp – his most recent tweets indicate a “wrestling” with the issues, to be sure, but let’s look at why Murdoch’s support for Yes is entirely predictable.</p>
<h2>Best pals</h2>
<p>Murdoch and Salmond, the Scottish first minister have always had a friendly relationship. In February 2012 Murdoch tweeted: “Alex Salmond clearly most brilliant politician in UK. Gave Cameron back of his hand this week. Loved by Scots.”</p>
<p>In notable contrast to the aloofness which characterises how Westminster MP’s now deal with Murdoch and News UK, Salmond is still (even in this post-Leveson and phone-hacking environment) ready to admit to affection for the media magnate – who had a Scottish grandfather. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/comment/articles/2014-05/28/alastair-campbell-alex-salmond-interview/viewall">Asked by Alistair Campbell in April’s GQ</a> if he liked Murdoch, he stated: “I do. He is a remarkable man. What is wrong with this relationship? Why shouldn’t politicians engage with people in the media?”</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/58685/original/mgyk9p3z-1410347323.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/58685/original/mgyk9p3z-1410347323.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/58685/original/mgyk9p3z-1410347323.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=633&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/58685/original/mgyk9p3z-1410347323.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=633&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/58685/original/mgyk9p3z-1410347323.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=633&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/58685/original/mgyk9p3z-1410347323.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=796&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/58685/original/mgyk9p3z-1410347323.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=796&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/58685/original/mgyk9p3z-1410347323.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=796&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sun shines on Salmond.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Planet Politics</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>Salmond certainly does engage. In the launch edition of the Scottish Sun on Sunday he wrote: “I’m delighted to see the new edition of The Scottish Sun hit the streets… The independence referendum in autumn 2014 will be chance for the whole country to have their say. The Scottish Sun will play an important part in the great debate on our future.”</p>
<p>This was fair enough – as in 2011 the daily Scottish Sun, which is one of the country’s biggest selling and most influential papers, urged voters to re-elect Salmond, telling its readers: “Play it Again, Salm: Alex Salmond cares passionately about Scotland. He is ambitious for this country and has the drive, the personality and the policies to lead us through these troubled times.”</p>
<h2>The business of friendship</h2>
<p>But does this close relationship go beyond reciprocal compliments? We know from the Leveson Inquiry and subsequent admissions that Salmond planned to lobby the UK government on Murdoch’s behalf in News Corporation’s bid to take over BskyB completely in 2010. </p>
<p>We know, too, that Murdoch and Salmond <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-17210014">met in Edinburgh 2012</a>, in a meeting described by the first minister’s office as “very constructive”. Under discussion was: “News Corporation’s substantial economic footprint in Scotland … and the potential for further investment within the country.”</p>
<p>Rumour had it at the time, in speculation fuelled by former Murdoch acolytes Andrew Neil and Kelvin Mackenzie, that Murdoch was <a href="http://www.thedrum.com/news/2012/03/06/rupert-murdoch-dangling-carrot-salmond-move-bskyb-hq-scotland">prepared to move BskyB to Scotland in the event of independence</a>. Mackenzie wrote in the Mail: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>A little bird tells me Mr Murdoch suggested a referendum winner would be an announcement that corporation tax for firms coming to an independent Scotland would be cut from the UK norm of 26% to between 10-15%. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Tittle tattle maybe, but there is no denying that the proposal to cut corporation tax in an independent Scotland to 3p below the UK rate would prove attractive to any multinational company.</p>
<p>In another of his pro-Salmond tweets Murdoch cited the BBC as the most “powerful media totally biased for no”.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/58687/original/s3bjjwf6-1410347633.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/58687/original/s3bjjwf6-1410347633.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/58687/original/s3bjjwf6-1410347633.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=210&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/58687/original/s3bjjwf6-1410347633.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=210&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/58687/original/s3bjjwf6-1410347633.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=210&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/58687/original/s3bjjwf6-1410347633.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/58687/original/s3bjjwf6-1410347633.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/58687/original/s3bjjwf6-1410347633.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>As a decades-long critic of the BBC, Murdoch has a commercial interest in a change in the broadcasting system of the UK. And it is a fact that an independent Scotland would have radical and far-reaching consequences for the corporation. The loss of income resulting from the disappearance of revenue from Scottish licence fees would impact in variety of ways. </p>
<p>A former director-general of the BBC, John Birt, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/aug/19/scottish-independence-bbc-scotland-income">has pointed out</a>, in the space of just a few years, if Scotland became independent, the BBC as we know it would lose significant funding. Fundamental changes to BBC services would be unavoidable.</p>
<h2>Revenge is Tweet</h2>
<p>Tacit support for the “Yes” campaign also allows Murdoch the opportunity to gain some sort of revenge on the political elite of Westminster which has so cruelly turned against him. </p>
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<p>He has dismissively referred to the “southern” parties and world-wide disillusion with political leaders and old establishments, which would seem to sum up his personal attitude to the UK government in general. It is important to remember how far the influence of News International has waned – from the heady days of 2011 and when monopoly control of Sky was literally days away and Andy Coulson was ensconced in Number 10 to the phone hacking trial and Murdoch’s own farcical appearance before the Parliament select committee. No wonder he would wish to see Cameron and Miliband with “black eyes”.</p>
<p>But is his influence over News UK Scottish titles real or imagined? Andrew Neil tweeted on Sunday, September 7: “Strong indications from Murdoch and Salmond sources that Scottish Sun will back independence, despite protestations of London Sun Editor.” It is worth pointing out that the London editor – the widely respected David Dinsmore – is a Scot and a former editor of the Scottish Sun.</p>
<p>It may yet be that the paper does not take an explicit editorial line. But as <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/media/greenslade/2014/sep/10/rupert-murdoch-scottish-independence">Roy Greenslade points out</a>, the newspaper has already shown the signs of supporting Yes. Last Thursday one of its most popular columnists, Bill Leckie, declared his backing and the No campaign has been mocked. The No campaign is flagging, it states, the raising of the Scottish flag over Downing Street: “Another Pole Disaster” a “boob” in the charm offensive. We’ll find out in the days ahead, exactly how the Sun plays this one. But Mr Murdoch is clearly plugged in. Watch this space.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/31531/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Jewell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>On September 6, the evening before the Sunday Times published the YouGov opinion poll on Scottish independence in which the Yes campaign was reported to be on 51% against the “No” camp on 49%, Rupert Murdoch…John Jewell, Director of Undergraduate Studies, School of Journalism, Media and Cultural Studies, Cardiff UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/244962014-03-19T06:07:33Z2014-03-19T06:07:33ZAndrew Marr gives more than a glimpse of anti-independence bias at the BBC<p>Called to give evidence of possible BBC bias in coverage of the Scottish referendum campaign to the Scottish Parliament’s education and culture committee on 11 March, I prompted gasps from more than one member when I suggested that Lord Black, auditor general for Scotland, might not be entirely impartial <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-12407245">in his opinion</a> that pensions could be less affordable in an independent Scotland. </p>
<p>Lord Black is one of those elite commentators whose position and CV place him above criticism, it seems. While claiming no definitive knowledge of Lord Black’s views on Scottish independence, I insisted, to further tutting, that he would be a political animal just like the rest of us in the room.</p>
<p>It is now obvious that the same is true of the BBC’s Andrew Marr. During <a href="http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/alex-salmond-accuses-andrew-marr-of-personal-bias-1-3342579">an interview</a> with the first minister, Alex Salmond, Marr repeated the opinion of the European Commission president, Jose Manuel Barroso, that Scotland would find it very difficult, perhaps impossible, to rejoin the EU after independence. </p>
<p>Salmond showed a similar lack of regard for Barroso to that I appeared hold for Lord Black. The first minister referred to reports of Barroso’s <a href="http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/french-mp-jose-manuel-barroso-intervened-in-indyref-debate-to-secure-nato-t.1394642736">rumoured ambition</a> to become secretary general of NATO as a possible source of his desire to please the heads of members such as the UK. </p>
<p>Apparently flustered by Salmond’s destruction of the Barroso argument by citing various views that have been put forward since the Barroso/Marr interview, Marr made a mistake which instantly raised the question of BBC impartiality – again.</p>
<p>Marr opined: “I think it’ll be quite hard to get back in [EU membership] for Scotland, I have to say but let’s move on.” </p>
<p>Salmond pressed hard on whether Marr’s last statement was a personal view to be weighed against the many experts he had quoted. With much hesitation and despite the evidence of his own words, Marr reassured us that he has no opinion on this nor, interestingly, does the BBC. </p>
<p>The SNP has since complained to the BBC, which responded merely by accepting Marr’s clarification on air – though it was a lie to the camera – and a reassertion of the BBC’s impartiality. </p>
<h2>BBC news – or views?</h2>
<p>My <a href="http://www.opendemocracy.net/ourkingdom/john-robertson/bbc-bias-and-scots-referendum-new-report">own research</a> has cast serious doubt on the impartiality of the BBC’s main evening news broadcasts in Scotland over the period of a year. In addition to a rough numerical imbalance of statements supportive of independence as opposed to those supportive of the union on a ratio of 3:2, there were other patterns undermining the yes campaign. </p>
<p>The tendency to begin with bad news stories for independence and so forcing the yes campaign on to the defensive, as opposed to the opposite sequence, occurred with a ratio of 66:24 on Reporting Scotland and 61:20 on STV. The undue deference towards politically motivated individuals and institutions advising against independence was also a notable feature. The first minister was also regularly depicted as dishonest or controlling.</p>
<p>So how did Marr compare? When he interviewed Ed Balls and George Osborne on Sunday, the exchanges were far more respectful than his tetchy, interrupting approach towards Salmond. </p>
<p>This was despite the fact that Salmond is a party leader and has a democratic mandate somewhat superior to the other two. Marr also had a tendency to narrow the debate to areas identified in the no camp as particular weaknesses in the yes campaign. </p>
<p>The European question is a particularly pernicious example. It beggars belief that democratic, affluent Scotland would be rejected by an organisation that has only recently embraced corrupt Eastern European states who are institutionally racist towards the Roma. </p>
<p>More recently the EU has been courting Ukraine, a country with abject poverty that is in the throes of an existential crisis. Yet the BBC allows this argument against independence in its “balanced” debate, along with the Monty Python-esque suggestion of borders and passports. </p>
<p>Marr presented the issue of currency union as a deal-breaker, just like in the reporting I covered. Yet there is evidence in, for example, a <a href="http://www.churchofscotland.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0019/19243/our_vision.pdf">study by the Church of Scotland</a>, that voters want to discuss higher values such as justice, compassion and tolerance as much as taxes or currency. </p>
<p>The emphasis on currency is an example of the sort of shallow materialism that the BBC allows to permeate the independence debate. Indeed, Marr headed in that direction right from the start of his programme when during a discussion of possible sanctions against Russia over Crimea, he reminded us that the City of London might suffer. </p>
<p>“We’ve been enjoying huge amounts of slightly dirty Russian money sloshing around,” he said. </p>
<p>Now it’s my turn to gasp. Leaving aside the nauseating acceptance of a system based on “dirty” money (which I suspect is not so slight and perhaps a bit bloody too), are we in it with the City of London, sharing its profits?</p>
<p>I digress. What Sunday’s Marr interview with Salmond told us was this: the strong evidence of bias that I have found in my research of BBC Scotland news broadcasts seems equally apparent at the UK end of the organisation, too. </p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/24496/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>I'm a member of no movement other than The Church of the Latter Day Dude (See Coen Brothers, The Big Lebowski).
I favour Scottish independence as a Trojan horse for socialism, pacifism, feminism.
</span></em></p>Called to give evidence of possible BBC bias in coverage of the Scottish referendum campaign to the Scottish Parliament’s education and culture committee on 11 March, I prompted gasps from more than one…John Robertson, Professor in Media Politics, University of the West of ScotlandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.