tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/scottish-independence-2120/articlesScottish independence – The Conversation2024-01-23T15:13:06Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2215032024-01-23T15:13:06Z2024-01-23T15:13:06ZWhat does Wales’ future hold? New report maps options for more devolution, federal and independent futures<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570678/original/file-20240122-25-8l3je8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=20%2C20%2C6968%2C2305&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales was set up in 2021 and has been gathering evidence since then.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/united-kingdom-vs-wales-welsh-smoky-1354803587">vladm/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A <a href="https://www.gov.wales/independent-commission-constitutional-future-wales">commission</a> set up to consider the constitutional future of Wales has published its <a href="https://www.gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2024-01/independent-commission-on-the-constitutional-future-of-wales-final-report.pdf">final report</a>. The Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales, co-chaired by former Archbishop of Canterbury Dr Rowan Williams and Cardiff University’s Professor Laura McAllister, maps three different “viable” options.</p>
<p>First, they suggest “enhancing” devolution. This would see Wales operating similarly to how it does now, only with more powers for justice and policing, financial management and rail services. This option also proposes greater cooperation between Cardiff and London on energy and broadcasting.</p>
<p>Second, it suggests Wales joins a federalised UK system. This <a href="https://www.centreonconstitutionalchange.ac.uk/opinions/federal-future-uk">idea</a> often draws comparisons to the <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/federalism">US model</a>. But the key feature here is granting Wales guaranteed legal rights and defined areas of responsibility, while the UK government handles broader matters like national security and international treaties.</p>
<p>Finally, it suggests a Wales which is fully independent from the UK.</p>
<p>While the commission finds all of the options to be possible, with advantages and disadvantages, it does not recommend one as the “correct” outcome. Instead it finds that there needs to be a constructive and evidence-based debate which engages Welsh citizens, so that an informed choice can be made. </p>
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<img alt="Rowan Williams stands next to Laura McCallister in the middle of a shopping street." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570683/original/file-20240122-29-v8agms.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570683/original/file-20240122-29-v8agms.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570683/original/file-20240122-29-v8agms.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570683/original/file-20240122-29-v8agms.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570683/original/file-20240122-29-v8agms.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570683/original/file-20240122-29-v8agms.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570683/original/file-20240122-29-v8agms.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Former Archbishop of Cantebury Dr Rowan Williams and Professor Laura McCallister co-chaired the commission.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Independent Constitutional Commission for Wales</span></span>
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<p>The Welsh government <a href="https://www.gov.wales/node/42768/latest-external-org-content?page=4">established</a> the commission in 2021. It was set up to ensure Wales is ready for any radical changes in the union, such as Scottish independence, for example. The panel included people from the four main political parties, various organisations and also surveyed the Welsh public.</p>
<h2>Criticising the status quo</h2>
<p>The report maps the deficiencies in the current devolution settlement. It identifies how the fall-out from Brexit has exposed the fragility of devolution, through Westminster disregarding the <a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02084/">Sewel convention</a>. This states the UK parliament will “not normally” pass a law which is within the remit of the devolved legislature without the <a href="https://www.parliament.uk/site-information/glossary/legislative-consent/">agreement</a> of the devolved institution. However, the convention is not legally enforceable. </p>
<p>Since the <a href="https://www.consoc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Gordon-Anthony-Devolution-Brexit-and-the-Sewel-Convention-1.pdf">2016 referendum</a>, the report points out that the Sewel convention has been overridden on 11 occasions with virtually no scrutiny in Westminster. It finds that devolution is at risk of gradual attrition if steps are not taken to add legal enforcement to the current convention system.</p>
<p>In their <a href="https://www.gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2022-12/independent-commission-the-constitutional-future-of-wales-interim-report-december-2022.pdf">interim report</a>, published in December 2022, the commission found that the status quo is neither viable for the stability nor prosperity of Wales. However, in the <a href="https://www.gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2024-01/independent-commission-on-the-constitutional-future-of-wales-final-report.pdf">final report</a> the language surrounding this was revised slightly to reflect citizens having a choice to choose “no change”. </p>
<p>The language used by Professor McAllister at the Senedd report launch, however, was more critical. She expressed disappointment with the quality of evidence from those who should have been in a position to defend the status quo. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Final report launch event at the Senedd.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Communication and engagement</h2>
<p>Part of the commission’s work included surveying Welsh citizens. The report finds people in Wales are often unsure about who makes the decisions on different issues. Some people mistakenly believe areas like policing and broadcasting are already devolved to the Welsh government, while others incorrectly identified the UK government as being responsible for health. </p>
<p>The report offered insights as to why this may be the case. This includes an absence of a Welsh perspective on UK affairs in the media. For example, 73% of people agreed they don’t see or hear enough about how Wales is run. </p>
<p>Public confusion is another concern. When the UK government steps in on matters already devolved to Wales, citizens struggle to understand which government is calling the shots and on which issues.</p>
<p>It finds that 81% are very or fairly concerned about how Wales is run. But Welsh citizens also lack confidence in their knowledge of the governance of Wales when discussing the constitution in abstract terms. Despite the maturity of Wales’ democratic institutions, the commission finds that devolution does not yet enjoy citizens’ full confidence, and that Welsh democracy therefore needs strengthening. The findings stress the need for more democratic innovation and community engagement that is appropriately resourced. </p>
<p>The commission acknowledges the wider challenges surrounding the current UK environment, particularly in terms of declining trust in political institutions, and the polarisation of debates surrounding Brexit and COVID-19. It acknowledges that many conflate questions about constitutional structure with assessments of the government of the day, and so greater civic engagement is needed. </p>
<h2>What next?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2024-01/independent-commission-on-the-constitutional-future-of-wales-final-report.pdf">The commission</a> stresses that all options are theoretically viable. Which step is pursued is dependent upon the values and risks people are willing to accept. </p>
<p>The report details the harm independence would cause to the Welsh economy in the short to medium term, making it a particularly unattractive option in the current climate. It also states that support for an independent Wales, or indeed the abolition of the Senedd, are in the minority. </p>
<p>Regarding the federal model or Welsh independence, wider UK input would be needed. This is because some of the issues are outside the current <a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-8544/">competence of the Senedd</a>. </p>
<p>The option of an enhanced and protected devolution is more achievable, it says. But inter-governmental relations would need to be improved to achieve this. Some 92% of people surveyed believed it was important for governments to work together. The Welsh citizens who were questioned had little time for governments blaming each other, which ultimately feeds disaffection with politics entirely. </p>
<p>The next step must be about moving away from political point scoring and slogans, and widening the national conversation about what could be the best constitutional future for Wales. Politicians in the Senedd and Westminster will set the initial tone but that debate needs to be mature and evidence-based.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221503/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen Clear does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales acknowledges each option requires UK government involvement.Stephen Clear, Lecturer in Constitutional and Administrative Law, and Public Procurement, Bangor UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2094582023-07-17T09:29:44Z2023-07-17T09:29:44ZPlaid Cymru’s new leader faces tough challenges ahead of next elections<p><em>You can read the Welsh version of this article <a href="https://theconversation.com/yr-heriaun-wynebu-rhun-ap-iorwerth-cyn-yr-etholiadau-nesaf-209462">here</a>.</em></p>
<p><a href="https://senedd.wales/people/rhun-ap-iorwerth-ms/">Rhun ap Iorwerth</a> was appointed as Plaid Cymru’s new leader mid-June 2023. He replaced Adam Price, who stood down in response to a damaging <a href="https://www.partyof.wales/prosiect_pawb">report</a> which found evidence of a culture of sexual harassment, bullying and misogyny in the party.</p>
<p>An immediate priority for ap Iorwerth is to implement the report’s 82 recommendations. These include introducing new policies on sexual harassment, improving how the party manages staff welfare and complaints, and reviewing its governance structures. This is a major undertaking for any political party, but particularly for an organisation which is not large, or especially well-resourced. </p>
<p>Plaid Cymru will have to implement these changes while preparing for the UK general election next year and the Senedd election in 2026. But doing well in those elections requires more than just organisational reform and preparedness. </p>
<p>The party must also consider its electoral strategy – it has failed to make any significant electoral advance in recent years. This is a trend confirmed by its performance in the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2019/results/wales">2019 general election</a> and the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-57026094">2021 Senedd election</a>. </p>
<p>And there are no signs of electoral resurgence anytime soon. <a href="https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/welsh-westminster-senedd-independence-referendum-voting-intention-17-18-june-2023/">Opinion polls</a> suggest the party will make minimal gains in the next general election. Improving on that in the Senedd election two years later will be difficult. </p>
<h2>Welsh independence</h2>
<p>In the 2021 Senedd election, Plaid Cymru put its call for Welsh independence front and centre of its campaign and promised to hold a referendum within five years if it became the party of government. </p>
<p>In this respect, it adopted the same strategy as many other pro-independence parties and movements across Europe. <a href="https://cwps.aber.ac.uk/imajine/independence/">Our research</a> analysed the kinds of constitutional claims made by such organisations in documents such as manifestos, policy papers and press releases. We found that calls for independence had increased over the last decade, with a greater emphasis on making the positive case for creating a new state. </p>
<p>But such a strategy misjudged the priorities of Welsh voters at the time, which was recovery from the COVID pandemic, rather than major constitutional change. COVID-related challenges are less likely to be so dominant next time round. Welsh independence is still only <a href="https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/new-poll-shows-40-people-27290676">supported</a> by a minority of voters. Constitutional reform remains very low on the list of issues that are important to people. </p>
<h2>Scotland’s example</h2>
<p>The Scottish National Party’s (SNP) <a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/supreme-court-judgment-on-scottish-independence-referendum/">failed efforts</a> to secure the legal right to hold another independence referendum have also shown that there is no easy way forward for those who want to leave the UK. With the SNP <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/25/humza-yousaf-leaves-the-snp-faithful-confused-about-his-strategy-for-independence">struggling to set out a credible strategy</a> for how to achieve independence, there’s little prospect that Plaid Cymru will find many new votes by making this its central electoral offering.</p>
<p>Many of those who do <a href="https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/welsh-westminster-senedd-independence-referendum-voting-intention-17-18-june-2023/">support</a> Welsh independence, are also Labour voters. And there is no sign that they are willing to ditch their allegiance and switch to supporting Plaid Cymru instead. </p>
<p>On the contrary, <a href="https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/welsh-westminster-senedd-independence-referendum-voting-intention-17-18-june-2023/">opinion polls</a> suggest Welsh Labour is likely to increase its share of the vote in the 2024 general election and remain the largest party in the Senedd when it is re-elected. This is in spite of the difficulties that the Welsh Labour-led Welsh government is facing in the areas it is responsible for, such as the <a href="https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/welsh-nhs-knees-who-put-26918450">NHS</a>. </p>
<p>There is much that can (and will likely) change between now, next year and 2026. Plaid Cymru – like other pro-independence parties, including the SNP – has always had to strike a balance between advancing its long-term constitutional goal and focusing on more pressing challenges. </p>
<p>And voters may yet lose faith in Welsh Labour and its track record in government. It’s also expected that Welsh Labour will contest the next election under a new leader. First minister Mark Drakeford has already <a href="https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/mark-drakeford-interview-first-minister-25808177">confirmed his intention</a> to stand down. Plus the elections will take place for a much larger Senedd (which will see the number of members rise from 60 to 96), and under a new electoral system. </p>
<p>Changing how the Senedd is elected was one of the commitments in the <a href="https://www.gov.wales/co-operation-agreement-2021">co-operation agreement</a> signed between Welsh Labour and Plaid Cymru in 2021. The parties agreed to <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-64649656">work together on a range of policy areas</a>, without Plaid having to formally enter government as part of a coalition. </p>
<p>Plaid Cymru will hope that other policy changes achieved as a result of that agreement will show voters it can be trusted to govern for Wales and deliver radical change. These have included extending free school meals to children in primary schools and new measures to tackle the often negative impact of second homes on communities, especially in coastal and rural areas.</p>
<p>In the changed Welsh political context of 2026, there could be opportunities for Plaid Cymru to reposition itself as the party of Wales. It has major organisational and strategic challenges to address before it can do so, and it has to move quickly to tackle them. </p>
<p>But even if it resolves those, it’s not clear that Welsh voters will be persuaded that it is time to end the electoral hegemony of Welsh Labour, who have been in power since 1999. In having to compete against such an opponent, Rhun ap Iorwerth’s Plaid Cymru faces an electoral challenge that is unique among Europe’s pro-independence parties.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209458/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anwen Elias receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elin Royles receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) as part of the WISERD Civil Society Research Project. The basis of the research informing this article was EU Horizon 2020 funding.</span></em></p>Rhun ap Iorwerth replaced Adam Price as Plaid Cymru leader.Anwen Elias, Reader in Politics, Aberystwyth UniversityElin Royles, Senior lecturer in politics, Aberystwyth UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2034012023-04-06T12:14:44Z2023-04-06T12:14:44ZSNP: ‘A difficult day for the party’ – who is Peter Murrell and what are the circumstances of his arrest?<p>At a time of almost constant political upheaval across the UK in the last few years, sometimes it feels that nothing would surprise us. But the astonishing events that unfolded in Glasgow on the morning of April 5 managed to detonate that notion. At the end of the new first minister <a href="https://www.snp.org/your-team/humza-yousaf/">Humza Yousaf’s</a> first seven days in charge, the Scottish National Party (SNP) was in the global spotlight for all the wrong reasons.</p>
<p>Police Scotland announced that they had arrested a 58-year-old man as a “suspect in connection with an investigation into the funding and finances” of the SNP, the governing party of the country. Minutes later the media revealed that person was <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-64972863">Peter Murrell</a>, ex-chief executive of the SNP and husband of the recently retired first minister, Nicola Sturgeon.</p>
<p>The nature of the <a href="https://www.mygov.scot/arrested-your-rights/how-long-you-can-be-held-in-custody">specific arrest</a> of Murrell is relatively new in Scots law. He has not been charged with any criminal offence and was released yesterday evening within the 12-hour window police have to charge or free a suspect – pending further investigations.</p>
<p>What this type of arrest does allow for though, is the possibility of searching premises linked to the individual in custody. On cue, cameras showed the rather shocking spectacle of the extensive police presence at both Murrell’s home – complete with screens and a plastic gazebo – and the SNP offices in Edinburgh where he spent 24 years in his leading role.</p>
<p>Although it already seems another era, Murrell entered the Scottish public consciousness relatively recently when he <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65000606">resigned</a> three weeks ago during the SNP leadership campaign over a row with the media about membership numbers. </p>
<p>For someone so entwined in the biggest Scottish political party for so long – Murrell’s first political job was as office manager for ex-first minister <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Alex-Salmond">Alex Salmond</a> in the 1990s – it is clear that, as new party leader Yousuf said: “This is a <a href="https://www.itv.com/news/border/2023-04-05/difficult-day-for-the-party-humza-yousaf-responds-as-peter-murrell-arrested">difficult day for the party</a>.” However, this was something of an understatement as fleets of police vans pulled up outside party headquarters and a helicopter hovered over Murrell and Sturgeon’s home just outside Glasgow.</p>
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<h2>Police investigation</h2>
<p>It is not fully clear what the police investigation covers and what evidence they are searching for. It was reported last week that the police had passed a dossier to Scottish criminal prosecutor the <a href="https://www.copfs.gov.uk/">Crown Office</a> on <a href="https://news.stv.tv/politics/police-scotland-passes-snp-fraud-investigation-progress-report-to-crown-office-as-part-of-probe">their initial investigation</a> into the finances of the SNP. A decision to take that investigation further would be made by the independent prosecutor; clearly, given Wednesday’s events, that decision was executed.</p>
<p>The issues around the investigation seem to focus on a <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-57820420">specific fund of £600,000</a> that was raised by the party from members and supporters for an independence campaign that has not taken place.</p>
<p>This is not the first time financial issues have been raised about the funds. There was a discussion internally in the SNP with <a href="https://douglaschapman.scot/">MP Douglas Chapman</a> resigning as party treasurer in May 2021 because he said he was not given enough information about the <a href="https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/douglas-chapman-resigns-as-snp-national-treasurer-over-lack-of-support-3255260">finances to be able to do his job</a>. This accusation was rejected by other party officials, as was the possibility of any police investigation into the finances at that point.</p>
<p>It was then <a href="https://www.thenational.scot/news/23191346.snp-respond-accusations-murky-100k-loan-peter-murrell/">revealed last year</a> that Murrell had loaned the SNP £108,000 in 2021. Initially the party accounts did not directly indicate the money had come from him – this was revealed by the <a href="https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/">Electoral Commission</a>. Some repayments had been made to Murrell, but £60,000 is still due to be repaid.</p>
<h2>Social media and contempt of court</h2>
<p>These may be some of the issues being explored by the police as they are all related to the finances of the SNP, but it is impossible to be specific. The announcement of the arrest came with the warning that the <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1981/49#:%7E:text=In%20this%20Act%20%E2%80%9Cthe%20strict,of%20intent%20to%20do%20so.">Contempt of Court Act 1981</a> is now live.</p>
<p>The Crown Office has taken a strong approach with several high-profile and controversial criminal cases in Scotland in recent years. People have been successfully prosecuted for breaching reporting restrictions on live criminal cases on a variety of media. In a statement on Wednesday evening, Police Scotland <a href="https://www.glasgowtimes.co.uk/news/scottish-news/23438356.peter-murrell-police-release-statement-following-arrest/">advised the public</a> to exercise caution if discussing events on social media.</p>
<p>Clearly, though, the shock of Murrell’s arrest has some way to play out and more will be revealed as events unfold. For the SNP, already under fire for the <a href="https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/homenews/23389762.snp-leadership-contest-chaos-forbes-question-integrity-vote/">bitterly divisive nature of its leadership contest</a> and the choosing of a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/mar/27/humza-yousaf-profile-snp-scotland-first-minister">continuity candidate</a> for its new party leader, the optics are not good.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203401/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nick McKerrell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The SNP faced unprecedented scenes yesterday when the husband of the recently resigned first minister was arrested at their home.Nick McKerrell, Senior Lecturer in Law, Glasgow Caledonian UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2026662023-03-27T15:12:29Z2023-03-27T15:12:29ZHumza Yousaf becomes Scotland’s first minister: a decade of polls suggest he’ll struggle to deliver independence, just like Nicola Sturgeon<p>Humza Yousaf is to be the first minister of Scotland after narrowly winning the election for leader of the Scottish National Party. In his victory speech, he said he was “determined to deliver” independence for Scotland. But Yousaf only narrowly won the contest, which is a significant hindrance to this aim. </p>
<p>Only SNP members were allowed to participate in the vote to replace Nicola Sturgeon as leader. A <a href="https://www.thenational.scot/news/23406644.snp-leadership-race-knife-edge-final-stretch-poll-suggests/">recent poll</a> showed that had the election been open to the wider voting public rather than SNP members, one of Yousaf’s two rivals, Kate Forbes, would have been the more likely winner. As it stood, a second round was needed in the contest because Yousaf did not win more than 50% in the first round. When the second preference votes for Ash Regan were redistributed to her rivals as the system required, he won by the very small margin of 52% to 48%.</p>
<p>Independence was the prize Sturgeon had been seeking all her political life but a majority vote for independence in a referendum eluded her. And the evidence shows that it was her divisiveness that prevented her from securing the independence vote. This can be shown using data from the <a href="https://scottishelections.ac.uk/">Scottish Election Study</a> conducted at the time of the Holyrood parliamentary elections in 2021.</p>
<h2>Polarisation as a barrier to independence</h2>
<p>The Scottish Election Study survey was conducted just prior to polling day and it asked a question about Sturgeon’s “likeability”. This was measured using a ten-point scale where a respondent scoring zero “strongly disliked” her and another scoring ten “strongly liked” her. It turned out that 18% of respondents gave her a score of 10 and 26% scored her zero. So while Sturgeon had a lot of admirers, she also had a lot of detractors. </p>
<p>The study also included a question about the strength of respondent feelings about independence. In this case a scale from -10 to +10 was used where the maximum negative score meant that respondents would very definitely vote “yes” in a new referendum and the maximum positive score meant they would definitely vote “no”. In the event 29% scored -10 and 37% +10. This revealed that the strong opponents of independence outnumbered the strong supporters by a significant margin.</p>
<p>If we compare attitudes to independence with Sturgeon’s likeability, not surprisingly there was a very strong correlation between the two (r=-0.61). Strong supporters of independence really liked her, whereas strong opponents really disliked her. This may explain why opponents of independence have outnumbered supporters for most of the time since the 2014 referendum.</p>
<p>This can be seen in the chart which shows <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%20Opinion_polling_on%20_Scottish_independence">trends in support for independence</a> averaged by months calculated from the hundreds of polls conducted since the referendum. In each case the question put was: “Should Scotland be an independent state?” When the “Yes” vote was greater than the “No” vote the graph moved above the horizontal red line and when the opposite happened it moved below that line. Some 75% of the observations are below the red line.</p>
<p><strong>Support minus opposition to Scottish independence</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517695/original/file-20230327-564-u3qhku.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A chart showing that opposition to independence has been stronger than support for much of the past decade." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517695/original/file-20230327-564-u3qhku.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517695/original/file-20230327-564-u3qhku.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517695/original/file-20230327-564-u3qhku.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517695/original/file-20230327-564-u3qhku.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517695/original/file-20230327-564-u3qhku.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517695/original/file-20230327-564-u3qhku.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517695/original/file-20230327-564-u3qhku.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">How support has shifted since 2014.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikipedia</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We’re yet to see such detailed polling in the post-Sturgeon era, but the narrowness of Yousaf’s victory suggests much of the same is to come unless something significant changes. Given that the party members were divided in their choice this strongly implies that the Scottish electorate will be equally if not more divided.</p>
<h2>Independence fatigue?</h2>
<p>One of the key reasons why many Scots are opposed to independence is that “independence fatigue” has set in. A YouGov poll conducted just after Sturgeon announced that she was stepping down showed that <a href="https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2023/02/21/nicola-sturgeons-legacy-according-scots">53% of Scots</a> agreed with the statement that her successor “should not prioritise independence for the time being”.</p>
<p>Much like the rest of Britain, the Scots are preoccupied with bread-and-butter issues such as the state of the economy, education and healthcare. This is even true for SNP voters, something revealed by a Scottish Business News survey which showed their top priorities were the cost of living crisis (65%), the health service (58%), and the economy (31%). Only 30% of them <a href="https://scottishbusinessnews.net/leadership-poll-of-snp-voters-reveals-kate-forbes-as-frontrunner/">chose independence as the main priority.</a>.</p>
<p>Yousaf framed himself as the continuity candidate in the leadership election, and the lesson in all of this is that the more he neglects bread-and-butter issues to focus on independence (as Sturgeon was accused of doing), the less likely he is to achieve it. The Scottish Election Study showed that only 6% of respondents thought that the economy had improved over the previous year compared with 68% who thought it had declined. Views about the state of the health service and education in Scotland were similar.</p>
<p>It is noteworthy that the only sustained period when support exceeded opposition to independence was at the start of the pandemic. This was when Boris Johnson’s government was flailing about trying to deal with the crisis. At the time Sturgeon was praised for her handling of the issue.</p>
<p>However, as <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/caution-earns-nicola-sturgeon-praise-during-pandemic-but-wont-secure-independence-b2dn79h2t">Sir John Curtice pointed out</a>, this was not enough for her to win consistent support for independence. As the COVID vaccines came on stream and the Westminster government got its act together, Scotland reverted to the “No” voters outnumbering the “Yes” voters.</p>
<p>If Yousaf proves to be another polarising politician and does not deliver on the main issues of importance to the Scots, he won’t be able to deliver on his promise to achieve independence in his generation. In fact, given that some people think he is no match for Sturgeon as a political communicator, he is likely to move the dial on the independence issue, but in the opposite direction.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202666/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Whiteley has received funding from the British Academy and the ESRC. </span></em></p>The SNP’s new leader only just squeaked over the line against his rivals, which is a bad sign for his ambition to take Scotland out of the UK.Paul Whiteley, Professor, Department of Government, University of EssexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2001202023-02-16T17:34:50Z2023-02-16T17:34:50ZAfter Nicola Sturgeon, what’s next for Scottish independence?<p>In the wake of Nicola Sturgeon’s surprise resignation, it cannot be overlooked that she became leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP) after it had suffered a double blow. The party had failed to achieve its cherished goal of <a href="https://theconversation.com/scotland-decides-14-reflections-on-an-incredible-campaign-31871">independence</a> in 2014, and lost its (then) best asset, <a href="https://theconversation.com/alex-salmond-resigns-following-defeat-in-scottish-independence-referendum-31816">Alex Salmond</a>.</p>
<p>Salmond led the SNP from the fringes to power and was often credited with its success, much as Sturgeon is now. Sturgeon, the deputy leader, had the difficulty of becoming the leader of a party whose primary purpose was <a href="https://theconversation.com/scottish-independence-what-has-changed-since-the-last-referendum-185985">independence</a> just after it lost a referendum on the subject. It was not until after the UK voted for Brexit in 2016 (with a majority in England and Wales but not Scotland) that the SNP was able to reengage with its primary purpose.</p>
<p>However, with a surge of new members after 2014 and her high profile during the referendum campaign, Sturgeon had very high approval ratings after she became SNP leader. Her political rallies <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-30115800">sold out large venues</a> and she led her party to win 56 out of 59 seats in the Westminster election of <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-does-the-new-political-landscape-mean-for-the-future-of-the-union-41558">2015</a>.</p>
<p>She also led the SNP in the cross party discussion which resulted in the Scotland Act of 2016. This granted Scotland more devolved powers over taxation and health, and was a win for the SNP, arguably taking Scotland a step closer to independence. Indeed, under Sturgeon, independence <a href="https://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-should-scotland-be-governed-five-response-categories-collapsed-to-three/">became a more popular governance option</a> than devolution. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/scottish-independence-how-nicola-sturgeons-pledge-to-rejoin-the-eu-could-impact-a-referendum-vote-193047">Scottish independence: how Nicola Sturgeon's pledge to rejoin the EU could impact a referendum vote</a>
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<p>Sturgeon’s daily briefings and communication skills during the pandemic allowed her to continue as an asset to her party. And it showed in the 2021 Scottish elections, when the SNP won nearly half of the seats.</p>
<h2>An asset in past elections</h2>
<p>After nearly nine years, Sturgeon leaves her post with a still high approval rating, though it has taken a <a href="https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2023/02/15/nicola-sturgeon-seen-doing-good-job-scots-most-her">bit of a blow</a> in the wake of the row over policy for transgender prisoners in Scotland. Her personal popularity and her signficant role in her party’s recent success raises the question of whether her successor will be able to deliver the same growing enthusiasm for independence.</p>
<p>But we should be careful of attributing too much importance to individuals in Scotland’s political landscape. When Ruth Davidson was Scottish Conservative leader, she did very well in the 2016 elections. Commentators thought the Conservatives <a href="https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/politics/scottish-politics/1830201/ruth-davidson-resignation-leaves-tories-vulnerable-to-snp/">would do worse</a> without her in 2021, but they won the exact same number of seats. </p>
<p>Certainly Sturgeon was an asset in past elections for the SNP, but public opinion in Scotland has been divided along constitutional issues <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/yes-pulls-ahead-and-snp-strengthens-support">since the 2014 </a> independence referendum. Her departure alone is unlikely to change this.</p>
<p>The SNP is not just a party of government, it is also the largest party of the pro-independence movement. The fate of both are linked. When the SNP government performs well, support for independence can increase. The high levels of support for Sturgeon and the SNP during the pandemic coincided with record levels of support for independence, <a href="https://www.thenational.scot/news/18953255.independence-support-hits-58-per-cent-snp-majority-holyrood-cards/">up to 58%</a>.</p>
<p>In choosing a successor to Sturgeon, the SNP needs to consider how to balance its quest for independence with effectively delivering policy. The next leader has to both lead the Scottish government and be able to convince “soft nationalists” (voters who are generally sympathetic to independence but are unsure about its potential impact on them) that they should support independence. </p>
<h2>Independence – is there a plan D?</h2>
<p>Sturgeon leaves behind an SNP that is still by far the most popular party in Scotland. It has the most seats in the Scottish parliament and local councils, the majority of Scottish Westminster seats and a large party membership.</p>
<p>The litmus test for the new party leader will be how convincing their strategy for achieving independence is. If they are able to deliver successful policy that helps (or at least does not undermine) their aim to build support for independence, they could reinvigorate not just the party but also the wider independence movement. Among other issues, this will involve avoiding damaging public sector strikes and honing a new approach to the gender recognition bill. </p>
<p>Sturgeon’s “plan C” for independence (which was looking more likely after the UK supreme court’s November ruling) was to treat the next general election as a de facto referendum. But this plan was not supported by all in the SNP, so will need to be revisited with a new leader.</p>
<p>The wider question, though, for any new SNP leader and first minister, is about how to both win support for independence and unite a country that is evenly split. Under Sturgeon there has been too much focus on processes of how and when a referendum should be held, and less on convincing voters.</p>
<p>If a new leader can galvanise a consistent and clear push for independence over a sustained period, a future UK government could agree to a referendum to recognise a new settled will in Scotland. The impact of the 2014 and 2016 referendums has been to create, for the first time, a potential pro-independence majority. The challenge for a new SNP leader is to harness support and make that majority consistent.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200120/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>William McDougall is affiliated with the EIS trade union.</span></em></p>Support for independence doesn’t depend on the departing SNP leader, but her successor will need a new plan.William McDougall, Lecturer in Politics, Glasgow Caledonian UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1903932023-01-10T13:29:03Z2023-01-10T13:29:03Z30 years on, Czechoslovakia’s ‘velvet divorce’ is not a model for Scottish independence from the UK<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503322/original/file-20230105-20-vwaelx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C544%2C4641%2C2456&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Scottish independence has its supporters -- as did that of Slovakia.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/slovakia-fans-in-the-stands-before-the-2018-fifa-world-cup-news-photo/857936752?phrase=scotland%20slovak%20fans&adppopup=true">Jane Barlow/PA Images via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Had Scottish nationalists got their way, 2023 would have seen the country head to the polls in a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-top-court-rule-legality-new-scottish-independence-referendum-2022-11-23/">second referendum over independence</a> from the United Kingdom – and they might have won. Whereas the first attempt in 2014 resulted in 55% voting “no,” <a href="https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/22564415.scottish-independence-polling-polls-changed-2022/">polls suggest</a> that after Brexit, a majority of Scots might now favor secession.</p>
<p>But that plan for a fresh referendum was scuppered in November 2022, when the U.K. Supreme Court <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk-supreme-court-rules-scotland-cannot-call-a-second-independence-referendum-the-decision-explained-194877">decided</a> that Scotland could not hold such a vote without the consent of the Westminster Parliament. And that permission seems unlikely given that the governing Conservative Party <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-independence-scotland-cameron/cameron-says-scottish-independence-issue-settled-for-a-generation-idUKKBN0HE0IN20140919">believes the 2014 referendum</a> settled the debate “for a generation.” Even a change of government is unlikely to matter, with the opposition Labour Party indicating that it too is <a href="https://www.thenational.scot/news/20268570.scottish-independence-keir-starmer-confirms-labour-reject-section-30-call/">not inclined to allow a second vote</a>.</p>
<p>It seems that when it comes to disentangling nations with a shared government, breaking up can be hard to do.</p>
<p>Yet, some advocates of Scottish independence point to an event that took place 30 years ago as an example of how such a divorce can be amicably managed and beneficial for all concerned: In January 1993, Czechoslovakia ceased to exist, and the Czech Republic and Slovakia <a href="https://www.un.org/en/about-us/member-states/czechoslovakia#:%7E:text=Following%20the%20receipt%20of%20their,admitted%20to%20United%20Nations%20membership.">were welcomed into the United Nations</a> as separate states. </p>
<p>While it is tempting for some to look back to the Czech-Slovak split for <a href="https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/65544/">comforting lessons</a> <a href="https://www.gla.ac.uk/news/archiveofnews/2013/may/headline_278765_en.html">over the</a> <a href="https://www.economicsobservatory.com/scottish-independence-what-lessons-from-the-break-up-of-czechoslovakia">long-run consequences</a> of Scottish independence, as <a href="https://www.drake.edu/polsci/facultystaff/kieranwilliams/">a scholar who has studied the politics of Central Europe</a>, I’m mindful of two things: It wasn’t entirely smooth, and the circumstances were not all that comparable to Scotland’s situation today.</p>
<h2>Better apart?</h2>
<p>Combined at the end of the First World War, the two national identities that made up Czechoslovakia were papered over under Communist rule and burst into the open with the <a href="https://time.com/5730106/velvet-revolution-history/">return of democracy in 1989</a>. </p>
<p>This came to a head with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/0967-067X(93)90004-B">elections in the summer of 1992</a>. The decision to terminate the union was rooted in an aversion among leaders of the largest Czech and Slovak parties to sharing power – and a vision of post-Communist economic reform – in a coalition government. The Czech side, which had been <a href="https://kdwilliams7.medium.com/the-czech-legislatures-secret-session-on-the-breakup-of-czechoslovakia-90a64e612899">secretly</a> thinking through what uncoupling would entail, had no appetite for Slovak proposals of a loose confederation and insisted on a cleaner break.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A black and white photo show three women in a crowd clap hands and cheer." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503445/original/file-20230106-25-zrc6fu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503445/original/file-20230106-25-zrc6fu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503445/original/file-20230106-25-zrc6fu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503445/original/file-20230106-25-zrc6fu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503445/original/file-20230106-25-zrc6fu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503445/original/file-20230106-25-zrc6fu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503445/original/file-20230106-25-zrc6fu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Demonstrators in Prague on June 18, 1992, the day before negotiations between Czech and Slovak politicians over a proposed split.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CzechScotlandCzechoslovakiaBreakup/d1f4edd4954043f0a2f6e28f64fcddb4/photo?Query=slovakia%201993&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=5&currentItemNo=0">AP Photo/David Brauchli</a></span>
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<p>In the end, a chaotic vote in the federal parliament on Nov. 25, 1992, saw a slim majority <a href="https://www.upi.com/Archives/1992/11/25/Federal-Parliament-votes-to-dissolve-Czechoslovakia/1607722667600/">in favor of dissolving the union</a> at the end of that year. But it was messy: The first two attempts failed, and the third attempt succeeded by just two or three votes (the votes cast and tallied did not add up). </p>
<p>Furthermore, the legislature did not have the expressed will of the people behind it – parties that months earlier had campaigned to preserve the union in some form acted without prior authorization or subsequent affirmation by a referendum. Thirty years later, <a href="https://ct24.ceskatelevize.cz/domaci/3554349-rozdeleni-ceskoslovenska-hodnoti-kladne-necela-polovina-cechu-mezi-slovaky-zastancu">polling</a> finds that very large majorities in both successor states wish a referendum had been held. Czechs still struggle to accept the end of federation, with a plurality of 48% regarding it negatively, while 62% of Slovaks say it was the right thing.</p>
<p>The lack of popular assent notwithstanding, the Czech-Slovak split is cited by <a href="https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18983787.independence-breaking-not-always-bitter/">advocates for Scottish independence</a> as a model that minimizes the risk of violence and economic disruption. </p>
<p>No doubt, the two new countries seem to have flourished. Both went on to become members of the European Union and the Schengen Area, which allows free movement across much of the continent. They also joined NATO and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. The Czech Republic is routinely ranked among the <a href="https://www.socialprogress.org/index/global/results">safest countries in the world with high scores</a> for quality of life. Its adjusted <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?locations=EU-CZ&most_recent_value_desc=true">per capita gross domestic product</a> is now ahead of those of older EU member states such as Spain, Portugal and Greece, and closing in on Italy’s.</p>
<p>Slovakia had to overcome greater political turmoil and structural challenges. But since joining the EU in 2004 and the eurozone in 2009, it has matched or outpaced the Czech Republic in annual economic growth. Indeed, Slovakia has attracted so much investment by foreign automakers that it is now the world’s largest producer of cars relative to population – which <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/slovakia-population/">at around 5.5 million</a> is <a href="https://www.scotlandscensus.gov.uk/census-results/at-a-glance/population/">almost identical in size to Scotland’s</a>.</p>
<p>Even more so than the Czech Republic, Slovakia confirms that <a href="https://www.economicsobservatory.com/scottish-independence-how-do-other-small-economies-fare">small states</a> can find their way in the world.</p>
<p>As such, it is no wonder that <a href="https://www.thenational.scot/news/15200957.whas-like-us-former-partners-czech-republic-and-slovakia-are-flourishing-after-velvet-divorce/">some Scots conclude</a>, “If Slovakia can make a success of itself after the Velvet Divorce, surely Scotland can do so too.”</p>
<p>And Slovakia did so while remaining on cordial terms with the Czech Republic. Setbacks such as the recent Czech reimposition of <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/czech-border-controls-blocking-migrants-route-germany-frustrate-slovakia-2022-11-10/">controls</a> on the border with Slovakia are minor compared with what we see in nearby regions that also fractured in the early 1990s - raging conflicts in the former Soviet Union and simmering tension in the former Yugoslavia.</p>
<h2>The velvet divorce</h2>
<p>Where the utility of Czechoslovakia as a precedent ends, however, is with the actual process of splitting up.</p>
<p>The appeal of the story of Czechoslovakia’s dissolution is that it seemed to be quick and easy as well as peaceful. In reality, it took years to finalize some issues, such as arrangements for citizens of one state to attend a university in the other and to acquire dual citizenship. Final settlement of the central bank’s balance took until November 1999 to sort out. </p>
<p>Most of the work of dividing assets was governed by a simple 2-to-1 principle that reflected the relative sizes of the Czech and Slovak populations. Liabilities, in the way of external debt, were dispatched on the same basis, and Czechoslovakia had little of it anyway.</p>
<p>The new international border was not agreed officially until 1996 but needed only minor adjustments. Being landlocked, the new states had no maritime issues to resolve. </p>
<p>For several reasons, it is hard to imagine such an amicable and swift grant of independence to Scotland from the rest of the U.K.</p>
<p>For starters, Edinburgh and London might never agree that the time had come to start discussing terms of divorce, in the way that Czech and Slovak leaders did in the summer of 1992. </p>
<p>Scotland’s first minister has said that the next U.K. general election, due to be held before the end of 2024, will be <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-63742281">treated as a “de facto referendum</a>.”</p>
<p>The Scottish National Party might interpret a general election result as a mandate to leave, but unionist parties might see it otherwise and refuse to come to the table. Any push towards independence in the face of opposition from the U.K. government could lead to an impasse akin to that between <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/25/is-catalonia-still-dreaming-of-independence-from-spain">Catalonia</a> and the Spanish government.</p>
<p>Even if talks did somehow get underway, there is no simple rule to hand like the 2-to-1 ratio for Czechoslovakia’s partition. That applied to a process of ending a country, whereas the U.K. would seek to carry on with its remaining parts.</p>
<p>Instead, there would be hard bargaining on every major issue – trade, labor, pensions, currency and banking, debt, citizenship, defense, and borders – including claims to the dwindling tax receipts from <a href="https://www.herbertsmithfreehills.com/insight/scottish-independence-implications-for-the-north-sea-oil-and-gas-sector">North Sea oil and gas fields</a>.</p>
<p>In all likelihood, it would <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s41293-022-00210-1">more closely resemble the United Kingdom’s choppy exit</a> from the European Union than Czechoslovakia’s division.</p>
<p>Speaking of which, Brexit itself presents another potential headache. Even if Scotland and the U.K. government were to reach agreement on the terms of any split, they might have to be reopened should an independent Scotland seek to join the E.U. – forcing it to choose between the single market of Europe and that of the rump U.K. </p>
<p>This is not to say that the separation of Scotland from the United Kingdom could not be arrived at. But harking back to events of 30 years ago may not serve anyone’s interests, least of all Scotland’s – especially if the path of the referendum-free “velvet divorce” leaves lingering doubts about the legitimacy of the process.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/190393/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kieran Williams does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Despite hopes of a second referendum on independence being dashed, many Scottish nationalists look to Slovakia as an example of how a small nation can stand on its own.Kieran Williams, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Drake UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1948772022-11-23T16:31:32Z2022-11-23T16:31:32ZUK supreme court rules Scotland cannot call a second independence referendum – the decision explained<p>The UK supreme court has ruled that the Scottish parliament does not have the power to unilaterally call a second referendum on Scottish independence. The <a href="https://www.supremecourt.uk/cases/docs/uksc-2022-0098-judgment.pdf">judgment</a> comes in response to a request from the <a href="https://www.gov.scot/publications/lord-advocate-role-and-functions/#:%7E:text=The%20Lord%20Advocate%20is%20the,the%20proper%20administration%20of%20justice.">lord advocate</a> (the senior law officer of the Scottish government) for a decision on whether a second vote could go ahead, following the first referendum in 2014. </p>
<p>The Scottish government and Scottish parliament get their powers from the 1998 <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/contents?view=plain">Scotland Act</a>. In deciding the two main legal questions raised in this case, the UK supreme court was required to determine whether the powers extended to the Scottish parliament under this act included a power to legislate to hold a vote of this kind. It was not considering any wider questions relating to holding a potential independence referendum.</p>
<p>In particular, the supreme court had to decide whether legislating for such a referendum would be within the legal competence of the Scottish parliament, or whether this was a topic “reserved” for the UK parliament in Westminster.</p>
<p>The court was ruling on two main issues. First, whether the Scottish government had used the proper process when it referred this legal question to the supreme court. The court decided that it had. It was “consistent with the rule of law” for the lord advocate to “be able to obtain an authoritative judicial decision on the point”. </p>
<p>The court then moved on to the second, more substantive question: whether the Scottish parliament has the legal power to enact legislation to hold a referendum on independence.</p>
<h2>Beyond Holyrood’s powers</h2>
<p>Crucially, the supreme court held that legislation providing for a referendum on Scottish independence would relate to two matters which are reserved to the UK parliament under the Scotland Act. These are “the Union of the Kingdoms of England and Scotland” and “the Parliament of the United Kingdom”. Because the matter “relates to” these two issues, the Scottish parliament does not have the legal power (or “competence”) to enact legislation on this topic.</p>
<p>The court reasoned that these constraints in the Scotland Act mean that “measures which question the integrity of the United Kingdom” will be reserved to the UK institutions. </p>
<p>Scotland’s proposed legislation authorising a referendum on independence (which could trigger the end of the union and terminate the UK parliament’s sovereignty over Scotland) “has more than a loose or consequential connection with the union” and with “the sovereignty of (the UK) Parliament”. It would therefore fall within powers legally reserved to the UK parliament, not the Scottish parliament.</p>
<p>To reach this conclusion, the supreme court emphasised that it was required to consider a referendum’s “effect in all the circumstances”. This extended “beyond purely legal effects”. </p>
<p>The argument that a second referendum would only be advisory was not, therefore, persuasive to the supreme court. Even if such a vote didn’t produce a legally binding result, it would still amount to an “important political event” with “important political consequences”. </p>
<p>The outcome would still “possess the authority, in a constitution and political culture founded on democracy, of a democratic expression of the view of the Scottish electorate”. The result of a referendum of this kind would have “legitimacy” due to “its official and formal character”. It would therefore be much more than a purely abstract or consultative exercise and could not be legally allowed on this basis.</p>
<h2>Unanimous result</h2>
<p>The judgment of the supreme court was unanimous, with five judges led by the president, Lord Reed, in agreement that a second independence referendum cannot be authorised by the Scottish parliament alone.</p>
<p>The case has been decided quickly, with the judgment handed down six weeks after the end of oral arguments. The supreme court justices confirmed explicitly that they had “no doubt as to the answer” to these significant legal questions.</p>
<p>Lord Carloway, the lord president of the court of session of Scotland, said in 2021 that it <a href="https://www.scotcourts.gov.uk/docs/default-source/default-document-library/2021csih25.pdf">“may not be too difficult”</a> for the courts to “arrive at a conclusion” to these questions concerning the scope of the Scotland Act 1998. And he appears to have been right. </p>
<p>The UK Supreme Court’s decision provides absolute legal clarity that a second independence referendum cannot be held by the Scottish parliament acting alone. Just like in 2014, the agreement of the UK government and UK parliament would be required to hold a referendum.</p>
<p>The decision, however, also exposes a clash between the UK’s constitutional law and the democratic mandate obtained by the Scottish National Party to hold a further vote on Scottish independence. That clash is not of the supreme court’s making, but is a central feature of the UK’s statutory devolution arrangements. Now that that the legal options are clear, how that clash is managed will be a major challenge for the legitimacy of the UK’s constitutional order.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194877/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Gordon does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Scottish government wanted to trigger a second independence vote without consulting Westminster but that has been deemed not legally permissable.Michael Gordon, Professor of Constitutional Law, University of LiverpoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1924102022-10-13T13:32:57Z2022-10-13T13:32:57ZScottish independence: why the supreme court is deciding if there will be another referendum<p>There were no fireworks as the UK’s supreme court opened its doors on the morning of Tuesday 11 October. No star witnesses, cross examinations or fiery rhetoric. Yet many were glued to the live feed coming from London as the case began which could determine Scotland’s constitutional future.</p>
<p>In June, the Scottish government’s top law officer, the <a href="https://www.copfs.gov.uk/about-copfs/our-structure/#:%7E:text=The%20Lord%20Advocate%20is%20a,independently%20of%20any%20other%20person.">lord advocate</a>, set the ball rolling by asking the supreme court to answer a legal question: does the law that created the Scottish parliament allow it to call an independence referendum? </p>
<p>The first referendum took place in 2014. At that time, an agreement was struck with David Cameron’s UK government to grant the powers to Holyrood to organise the vote.</p>
<p>This followed the accepted model of <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/contents">the Scotland Act 1998</a>, which <a href="https://www.parliament.scot/about/how-parliament-works/devolved-and-reserved-powers">outlines the powers</a> of Holyrood (devolved matters) and Westminster (reserved matters). Some specific areas of law are listed in the legislation – these are the ones limited to the London parliament where Scotland has no jurisdiction in terms of drafting laws. This includes <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/schedule/5">“aspects” of the constitution</a> including the union of the kingdoms of Scotland and England.</p>
<p>These reserved powers can be temporarily transferred to Edinburgh using what is known as an <a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-8738/">s.30 order</a>. This is what happened in 2012 with the agreement allowing Holyrood to <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/313612/scottish_referendum_agreement.pdf">hold the 2014 referendum</a>.</p>
<p>But ever since, subsequent prime ministers Theresa May, Boris Johnson and now Liz Truss have rejected a repeat of this process. This was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/13/nicola-sturgeon-fires-starting-gun-on-second-scottish-independence-referendum">requested</a> by the Scottish government in 2017 following the 2016 Brexit referendum in which Scotland voted to remain in the EU.</p>
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<h2>Stalemate</h2>
<p>What then is to be done? <a href="https://www.gov.scot/about/who-runs-government/cabinet-and-ministers/dorothy-bain-qc/">Dorothy Bain KC</a>, lord advocate since last year, opened her arguments by outlining the mandates the Scottish government and SNP have for their s.30 request: winning the largest number of seats in the UK elections of 2017 and 2019, the Scottish local elections in 2022 and the Scottish parliamentary election in 2021. </p>
<p>The question is whether, in the face of UK opposition, this mandate can be used to organise an independence referendum without an s.30 order. This has never been definitively answered by the courts in Scotland or the supreme court in London. Indeed the lord advocate referred to it in court as a “festering” issue which needs to be resolved if Scotland is to move forward constitutionally.</p>
<p>To counter the argument that an independence referendum deals quite explicitly with a “reserved” matter – constitutional matters pertaining to the union – Bain stated that the vote as outlined in the <a href="https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/strategy-plan/2022/06/scottish-independence-referendum-bill/documents/scottish-independence-referendum-bill/scottish-independence-referendum-bill/govscot:document/Draft+Bill+-+27+June+2022.pdf">draft Scottish independence referendum bill</a> would be advisory and, in her words, of no “prescribed legal consequences”. Indeed the proposal states the referendum would simply “ascertain the views of the people of Scotland”.</p>
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<h2>Advisory vote?</h2>
<p>The UK government – represented by <a href="https://www.blackstonechambers.com/barristers/james-eadie-kc/">Sir James Eadie KC</a> – rejected this as an irrelevant distinction and also against previous legal interpretation of devolution statutes. The supreme court has heard prior cases involving not just Scotland, but Wales and Northern Ireland, that discuss the limits of devolution. These looked at what amounted to a law “relating to a reserved matter”.</p>
<p>A previous case concerning a law over the sale of cigarettes in Scotland – which <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2010/sep/30/imperial-tobacco-cigarette-ads-scotland">the tobacco companies</a> that were involved lost – stated that there must be more than a “loose or consequential connection” with a reserved matter for the law to be invalid.</p>
<p>Imperial Tobacco argued that the proposed law dealt with UK economy issues rather than public health, which is a devolved matter. However, the presiding judge ruled that the Scottish government was within its legislative rights to restrict sales of tobacco to safeguard public health and threw out the challenge.</p>
<p>Eadie argued that collecting the views of Scottish people on independence – even with no explicit legal consequence but rather to discover the views of the majority – seems to have more than just a “loose” connection with the reserved “aspects” of the British constitution relating to the union. It is this question on which case could centre. </p>
<h2>Too early?</h2>
<p>However, there is a relevant procedural issue raised by the UK government that this whole case is premature. What is being asked by the lord advocate relates to a <a href="https://www.gov.scot/publications/draft-independence-referendum-bill/">draft bill</a> which has not gone through any parliamentary processes at all. </p>
<p>The Scotland Act allows the supreme court to review draft laws from Scotland but normally at the end of the process, not the beginning. This has occurred in recent years with a <a href="https://brodies.com/insights/brexit/uk-supreme-court-rules-parts-of-scottish-brexit-bill-to-be-outside/">law relating to Brexit</a> and the incorporation of <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/supreme-court-rules-in-favour-of-uk-government">the UN’s children’s rights treaty</a> into Scotland.</p>
<p>In both these cases the supreme court ruled that the Scottish parliament had exceeded its powers – but after the laws had been voted through. This is not the case with the referendum issue. </p>
<p>Eadie argued that proper parliamentary scrutiny is needed before the courts can be asked to rule on it. Indeed he argues the Scotland Act does not allow it and the lord advocate is mistaken in making such a reference at this stage.</p>
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<p>To counter, Bain argued that unless the question is answered at this stage there may never be a resolution to this issue, and that this would thwart the rule of law and the broader democratic question of the many mandates of the Scottish government. There is a possibility though that the supreme court may decide not to rule on the substantive issue at this stage.</p>
<p>It will be a while before we know the outcome. After the conclusion of the cases <a href="https://www.supremecourt.uk/about/biographies-of-the-justices.html">Lord Reed</a>, the Scots law-trained president of the supreme court, stated it will give its ruling as soon as it can. </p>
<p>But he also mentioned earlier in proceedings the 8,000 pages of documents that had to be considered. In the next few months a clearer picture should emerge on whether Scotland can hold its second referendum for independence or not.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192410/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nick McKerrell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Does the law that created the Scottish parliament allow it to call indyref2?Nick McKerrell, Senior Lecturer in Law, Glasgow Caledonian UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1911382022-09-22T14:08:41Z2022-09-22T14:08:41ZSurvey shows Brexit vote has undermined support for the United Kingdom’s union<p>King Charles’s decision to visit <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-62905395">all four corners of the UK</a> in the first week of his reign has highlighted the fact that question marks hang over the future of the union.</p>
<p>The argument about the <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/northern-ireland-protocol-108020">Northern Ireland Protocol</a> reflects, in part, concern within both the UK government and the unionist community that the introduction of checks on goods between Great Britain and Northern Ireland (and the absence of any such checks between the North and the Republic) will weaken the links between them.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, with <a href="https://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-would-you-vote-in-the-in-a-scottish-independence-referendum-if-held-now-ask/?removed">polls in Scotland</a> suggesting almost 50% support for leaving the UK, the Scottish government is pushing for <a href="https://www.gov.scot/publications/ministerial-statement-independence-referendum/">a second referendum on independence</a>.</p>
<p>Northern Ireland and Scotland were, of course, the two parts of the UK where a majority voted to stay in the EU. And <a href="https://www.bsa.natcen.ac.uk/latest-report/british-social-attitudes-39/constitutional-reform.aspx">a chapter</a> in the latest <a href="https://www.bsa.natcen.ac.uk/latest-report/british-social-attitudes-39/introduction.aspx">British Social Attitudes report</a> published by the National Centre for Social Research (NatCen) shows how, since the 2016 ballot, attitudes towards Brexit have come increasingly to colour attitudes towards the union across the UK.</p>
<h2>Scotland</h2>
<p>When the Brexit referendum was held in 2016, how people in Scotland voted bore no relationship to their attitude towards Scotland’s constitutional status. According to the <a href="https://www.ssa.natcen.ac.uk/read-the-reports/scottish-social-attitudes-2016.aspx">Scottish Social Attitudes</a> (SSA) survey of that year, when presented with the choice between independence, devolution or no Scottish parliament at all, 44% of those who voted Remain were in favour of independence, as were 45% of those who voted Leave. </p>
<p>Despite the fact that the SNP’s vision of independence is one of “independence in Europe”, voters themselves did not necessarily see the link between the two debates.</p>
<p>Now, however, the two issues are intertwined. <a href="https://www.bsa.natcen.ac.uk/latest-report/british-social-attitudes-39/constitutional-reform.aspx">In the most recent SSA</a>, nearly two-thirds of Remain supporters say that they support independence. Just 22% of Leave supporters take the same view. </p>
<p>Given the predominance of Remain supporters north of the border, this divergence of views helps explain why, at 52%, the overall level of support for independence in the latest SSA survey is six points up on what it was in 2016 – a trend that mirrors <a href="https://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-would-you-vote-in-the-in-a-scottish-independence-referendum-if-held-now-ask/?removed">the opinion polls</a>.</p>
<h2>Northern Ireland</h2>
<p>Much the same process has occurred in Northern Ireland. According to the <a href="https://www.ark.ac.uk/ARK/sites/default/files/2022-05/update147_0.pdf">Northern Ireland Life and Times survey</a>, back in 2016 a majority of those who voted Remain (64%) and those who voted Leave (83%) were in favour of Northern Ireland being part of the UK.</p>
<p>At 82% in the latest survey, the level of support for the union among those who identify as a Leaver has held steady. However, among Remainers the position is very different. Just 37% now say that Northern Ireland should be part of the UK, while slightly over half (52%) feel that Northern Ireland should either unify with the Republic (44%) or become an independent state (8%).</p>
<p>It is this movement among Remainers that helps explain why, across Northern Ireland as a whole, support for being part of the union has slipped from two-thirds (66%) in 2016 to just under half (49%) now. Meanwhile, support for unification has increased over the same period by eleven points, from 19% to 30%.</p>
<h2>England</h2>
<p>Brexit has also become a line of division when English people are asked about Scotland. According to the <a href="https://natcen.ac.uk/our-research/research/british-social-attitudes/">British Social Attitudes survey</a>, support for Scottish independence among Remain supporters in England stands now at 35%, whereas only 19% of those who back Leave take the same view. </p>
<p>In contrast, in 2017 it was Leave supporters (27%) rather than their Remain counterparts (21%) who were more inclined to say Scotland should become independent. However, because Remain and Leave supporters have moved in opposite directions, at 25% the overall level of support for Scottish independence in England is only slightly up on the 22% who expressed that view in 2017.</p>
<p>Remain and Leave supporters across Britain as a whole also have rather different views on the status of Northern Ireland. Among those who back Leave as many as 62% think that Northern Ireland should remain part of the UK, while just 32% believe it should reunify with the Republic of Ireland. </p>
<p>In contrast, among Remain supporters the balance of opinion is tilted somewhat in the opposite direction, with 48% backing reunification and only 41% saying that Northern Ireland should remain part of the UK.</p>
<p>The current UK government faces a dilemma over the future of the union. The Brexit policy it has implemented has instigated a diminution in public support for a union that it wishes to preserve. </p>
<p>Those who would like to become part of a different union (the EU) have become more inclined to question the merits of the union represented by the UK. If it is to strengthen public support for the Union in the future, it looks as though the UK government will have to persuade Remainers that exiting the EU has indeed been worthwhile.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/191138/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Curtice has received funding from UKRI-ESRC. British Social Attitudes is funded by multiple sources. In the case of the most recent survey these were: UKRI-ESRC, the Department for Work and Pensions, Government Equalities Office, the Nuffield Trust, The King’s Fund and the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities.</span></em></p>Date from Scotland and Northern Ireland shows Remainers are rethinking their place in the UK.John Curtice, Senior Research Fellow, National Centre for Social Research, and Professor of Politics, University of Strathclyde Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1859852022-06-29T13:19:01Z2022-06-29T13:19:01ZScottish independence: what has changed since the last referendum<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471425/original/file-20220628-14234-l4p3qx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=66%2C38%2C3646%2C2432&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://webgate.epa.eu/id/57683064">Michael Reynolds / EPA-EFE</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>If the SNP Scottish government and Nicola Sturgeon, first minister, get their way, then in October 2023 voters in Scotland will <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-61968607">again be asked</a> “Should Scotland be an independent country?”. This will be the same wording used in September 2014 for the first independence referendum. This, on a massive turnout of 84.6%, saw 55.3% of voters against and 44.7% voting for independence. </p>
<p>As in 2014, the proposed referendum would be consultative, not binding. If supported, it would be a start to negotiations on Scottish independence between the Scottish parliament and the UK parliament (which would, constitutionally speaking, still have to approve Scotland’s departure). The referendum question will be the same, but politically, much has changed in nine years when it comes to support for Scottish independence, not least the UK’s own Brexit referendum.</p>
<p>To hold the first “indyref”, Westminster granted Holyrood a section 30 order. This mechanism allows for the temporary transfer of power, so the Scottish parliament can deal with issues that are normally dealt with at the UK level, such as constitutional questions.</p>
<p>However, since then, two UK prime ministers, Theresa May and Boris Johnson, have consistently refused to grant a section 30 order for the purposes of indyref2, arguing in both <a href="https://euobserver.com/world/137269">2017</a> and 2019 that “<a href="https://www.shropshirestar.com/news/uk-news/2019/07/29/boris-johnson-sees-no-reason-for-scotland-holding-second-independence-vote/">now is not the time</a>”. Sturgeon has again written to Johnson asking for that authority, but it is unlikely the prime minister will change his mind.</p>
<p>Sturgeon, very aware that “no” was likely to be the answer again to her section 30 request, has preempted that decision by directly asking the Lord Advocate, Scotland’s top law officer, to <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-61974087">refer the proposed Scottish referendum bill</a> to the UK Supreme Court. Very few people saw that move coming, and it plays well in terms of putting the Scottish government slightly more in the driving seat, legally speaking. The SNP government’s plan A was always to ask for a section 30 order. This is their amended plan B, which was to move ahead with a referendum anyway, subject to legal arguments they would no doubt face.</p>
<p>Sturgeon has now also announced a plan C. If no referendum is allowed, the SNP will fight the next UK general election on the lone issue of independence for Scotland.</p>
<h2>What’s changed in Scotland?</h2>
<p>We must never forget that few expected the 2014 result to be almost 45% in favour. The pro-independence movement gained a lot of ground during the referendum campaign – ground it has not lost since. The SNP has become the dominant force at Holyrood in every subsequent Scottish election. The 2021 Scottish parliament elections saw <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1467-923X.13047?casa_token=ppeVYOaO0bAAAAAA%3A_UqDWTtREjbjyWukGa3kb1stvgnvmKs1NPIsvUV6Kbftk69oa6wPXCz2w5FJ5iw09DYVwHvY7Nsi3Q">another SNP victory</a>, and a pro-independence majority, when you include the Green Party.</p>
<p>The 2014 referendum did not hurt the SNP – in fact, it helped the party a lot. It has seemingly changed the nature of voting behaviour in Scotland. The Scottish Labour Party, long dominant in Scotland, was devastated at the 2015 UK election. The SNP won 56 seats out of 59, leaving Labour, the Scottish Conservatives, and the Scottish Liberal Democrats with only one each. While the pattern for UK elections in Scotland has shifted somewhat, in 2019 the SNP won 45% of the vote and the lion’s share of the seats again. Sturgeon <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/13/nicola-sturgeon-to-demand-powers-for-scottish-independence-referendum?CMP=fb_gu&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook">claimed a fresh mandate for an independence referendum then</a>.</p>
<p>Brexit has also changed the playing field. In 2016, the UK voted, by 51.89% to 48.11% to leave the EU. Scotland, on the other hand, voted 62% to 38% to remain. Scotland, the SNP and others argued, was being <a href="https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/columnists/scotland-did-not-vote-be-dragged-out-eu-michael-russell-3006463">“dragged out” of Europe</a> against its will. The links between Europe and Scotland have always seemed strong, and the attitude towards the EU, especially the political attitudes, more positive. The SNP has always argued that Brexit represents significant constitutional change for the UK, and is therefore a reason to hold another referendum. But the UK government and Boris Johnson have insisted the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50789771">2014 result must stand</a>.</p>
<p>Then, there was the COVID pandemic. While this caused social, political and economic ructions that few saw coming, it also illustrated the fact that Scotland had its own parliament, its own first minister, and could make its own rules, with different priorities and <a href="https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19641823.uk-scottish-governments-different-covid-messaging-caused-confusion-mps-find/">message</a>. Irrespective of any difference in outcomes, Scotland’s ability to govern itself was more evident than ever before.</p>
<p>Polls over the last few years have <a href="https://ballotbox.scot/independence">occasionally shown</a> a potential pro-independence majority in Scotland, albeit a slim one. Furthermore, the pro UK union parties in Scotland (Scottish Labour, the Scottish Conservatives and the Scottish Liberal Democrats) are not as united as they were last time. It would be politically very difficult for them to run a united campaign as they did in 2014. </p>
<p>Indyref2 may have a better chance of success than 2014’s referendum, but a year is a long time. What may change in that year? The legal decision around the referendum and the potential granting of a Section 30 order will no doubt have impacts. </p>
<p>If the UK continues down paths that further isolate it from the EU and the wider world stage, Scottish attitudes to the Union may harden. But, Boris Johnson is <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/satisfaction-boris-johnson-hits-new-low-scots-feel-cost-living-crisis-bite">personally very unpopular</a> in Scotland. If he is replaced as PM before a referendum takes place, this might change the game and positively impact pro-UK Union attitudes in Scotland.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/185985/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Murray Leith has previously received funding from the European Union Horizon 2020, and the UK Ministry of Defence. He is currently working on research funded by the Scottish Government.</span></em></p>Nicola Sturgeon has announced plans for indyref2. An expert explains what’s changed since the last time.Murray Leith, Professor of Political Science, University of the West of ScotlandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1600422021-04-30T12:02:25Z2021-04-30T12:02:25ZScottish independence: what’s at stake in May elections<p><em>This is a transcript of episode 13 of The Conversation Weekly podcast “<a href="https://theconversation.com/scotland-why-may-election-is-crucial-for-independence-movement-and-the-uk-podcast-159883">Scotland: why May election is crucial for independence movement, and the UK</a>”. In this episode, as Scotland prepares to vote in landmark parliamentary elections on May 6, we explore why the question of independence from the UK is dominating the debate. And a team of researchers working with fruit flies, has discovered a biological switch that can turn neuroplasticity on and off in the brain. What might that mean?</em></p>
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<p>Dan Merino: Hello and welcome to The Conversation Weekly.</p>
<p>Gemma Ware: This week, as Scotland prepares to vote in parliamentary elections on May 6, why the question of independence is dominating the debate. </p>
<p>Kezia Dugdale: If there’s a majority for independence you will see the SNP demand the right to hold a referendum and you’ll see Boris Johnson say no to it very quickly.</p>
<p>Dan: And – a team of researchers working in fruit flies, have discovered a biological switch that can turn neuroplasticity on and off in the brain. </p>
<p>Sarah Ackerman: Plasticity is really important for us to form and maintain connections in the brain. </p>
<p>Gemma: I’m Gemma Ware in London.</p>
<p>Dan: And I’m Dan Merino in San Francisco. You’re listening to The Conversation Weekly, the world explained by experts. </p>
<p>Gemma: People in countries around the world are clamouring for independence – or to secede from the nations that govern them. From Kurdistan in the Middle East, to Kashmir in India, or the Anglophone Ambazonia region of Cameroon. </p>
<p>Dan: Yep, there’s even a secessionist movement here in California, though it’s relatively tame in the grand scheme of things.</p>
<p>Gemma: In recent decades, some parts of the world have voted in referendums for independence. South Sudan became an independent country in 2011 after a brutal conflict, as did East Timor in 2002. </p>
<p>Dan: Elsewhere, independence movements have led to constitutional and political crises. In 2017, Catalonia in Spain held an independence referendum which was ruled illegal by the country’s constitutional court. </p>
<p>But the Catalan parliament went ahead and unilaterally declared independence anyways. This was accompanied by a brutal crackdown by the Spanish police and the eventual arrest of Catalan pro-independence leaders.</p>
<p>Gemma: And that brings us to Scotland, where there is loud and growing support for independence from the United Kingdom. Now Scots are heading to the polls on May 6 in elections for the Scottish parliament. </p>
<p>Dan: Scotland held an independence referendum seven years ago in 2014, and voted to remain in the UK. But a lot’s happened since then.</p>
<p>Gemma: Yes, and the Scottish National Party – known as the SNP – led by Scotland’s first minister, Nicola Sturgeon – is arguing that the circumstances have changed so significantly that they warrant a second referendum, or indyref2. </p>
<p>Gemma: If pro-independence parties win a majority in the Scottish parliament – Sturgeon will ask the UK government in Westminster, led by Prime Minister Boris Johnson, for a second referendum on Scottish independence. To find out more about what’s at stake in these upcoming elections, I’ve spoken to three experts, including one high-profile politician turned academic, to explain the situation. </p>
<p>Kezia Dugdale: Hello, I’m Kezia Dugdale. I’m the director of the John Smith Centre at the University of Glasgow, where I also teach public policy. </p>
<p>Gemma: Before that, Kezia was a politician. She served as leader of the Scottish Labour Party between 2015 and 2017 and represented Edinburgh and the Lothians in the Scottish parliament, for nearly a decade. I asked Kezia why questions about the constitutional arrangements between Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom are dominating the debate ahead of the Scottish parliamentary elections on May 6. </p>
<p>Kezia: So we’ve had a Scottish parliament since 1999. So this is the 21st year or so of devolution. The parliament’s very much coming of age and it’s matured and it has substantially more powers than it did when it first opened its doors in 1999. So it’s largely responsible for health, education, housing policy, justice and communities. It’s increasingly got more powers around welfare, certain powers to do with, for example, disability benefits, and also increasing tax powers. But the vast majority of the social security system, foreign policy, defence are all still reserved to the UK parliament. So is the constitution, but that doesn’t mean that it doesn’t completely dominate Scottish politics. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/brexit-has-changed-peoples-minds-on-independence-qanda-with-kezia-dugdale-former-scottish-labour-leader-159858">'Brexit has changed people's minds on independence': Q&A with Kezia Dugdale, former Scottish Labour leader</a>
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<p>So after the 2011 Scottish parliament elections, the SNP had a majority, and they used that majority to call for an independence referendum. There was a two and a half year campaign with the referendum taking place in September 2014. The no side won that with 55% of the vote to the yes side’s 45%. And we thought that that would be the end of the constitutional question, but I’m afraid that’s not been the case. Because it was a relatively close margin, questions around the settlement that the Scottish parliament has and it’s continued place in the United Kingdom have continued to dominate. And they’re dominating this election campaign. </p>
<p>So whether you are yes or no, what you were in 2014, what you are today, is still the biggest dominating factor over how you will vote in party political terms. So if you’re a Yes voter, very likely SNP, perhaps Green, if you’re a No voter, the vote splits three ways between Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats.</p>
<p>Gemma: Over the past few years, calls for a second independence referendum have been growing louder. To understand where the support for this indyref2 is coming from, we need to go back to what’s happened since Scotland voted to remain part of the UK in 2014.</p>
<p>Darryn Nyatanga: My name is Darren Nyatanga and I’m a final year PhD candidate at the University of Liverpool, where I’m researching the constitutional impacts of Brexit on the UK’s unionship.</p>
<p>Gemma: Darren explains that in the immediate aftermath of the independence referendum, the UK government in Westminster moved to devolve more powers to Scotland.</p>
<p>Darryn: So during the campaign for that referendum on independence, the three main parties in Westminster – so at the time that was the Conservatives and the Lib Dems who were in coalition together, and the Labour party – made a pledge to devote more powers to Scotland if they voted to remain within the UK. So they honoured this vow, it was known as “the vow”, by passing a law, known as the Scotland Act of 2016, which devolved extensive powers, including fiscal powers to Scotland, and it also insured the permanency of the Scottish parliament and the Scottish government within the UK’s constitutional order, something which meant a lot to nationalists, because the debate really was about Scottish institutions making Scottish decisions. </p>
<p>Gemma: But then, a few months later, the UK held another referendum, on whether to leave the European Union. The UK as a whole voted 52% to leave, 48% to remain, and the path to Brexit was set in motion. But in Scotland, 62% of the population voted to remain as part of the EU. </p>
<p>Darryn: So this meant that Scotland was taken out of the EU against its democratic will. So this is the point that the Scottish government have been hammering on in relation to their need to have a second vote on independence because for them there’s a significant change in circumstances prevailing from the 2014 vote. </p>
<p>Gemma: Economically, Scotland’s situation has also changed significantly since 2014. To find out more about the state of its economy, I called up economist Graeme Roy, a colleague of Kezia Dugdale’s at the University of Glasgow, where he’s dean of external engagement at the School of Social Sciences.</p>
<p>Graeme: The UK is one of the most unequal economies on a regional basis in Europe. But within that Scotland, outside of London and the southeast, the really strong parts of the UK economy, Scotland comes in pretty much next on most indicators. And it has core strengths in areas that you’d expect in things like energy with the North Sea, but also in other areas such as financial services, and that’s propelled it to be a relatively strong economy within the UK. There are challenges though as well, like many other parts of Europe: de-industrialisation, issues around social inequality et cetera. So it’s very much a mixed bag, it’s got its core strengths but its also got its challenges. </p>
<p>Gemma: You mentioned there the North Sea so you’re talking oil there but the oil economy has has actually shifted dramatically even in the last few years, hasn’t it?</p>
<p>Graeme: Very much so. So North Sea oil is fairly much in its twilight years. There’s still potential there for the next couple of decades but it’s on a much smaller scale than it has been in the past. The opportunity, and where policy makers are focusing their attention both at a Scottish and a UK level is the ability to shift into new forms of energy.</p>
<p>Gemma: As you’ve written in a <a href="https://theconversation.com/scottish-independence-referendum-why-the-economic-issues-are-quite-different-to-2014-154119">piece for The Conversation</a>, the economic questions were kind of a big part of the of the independence referendum that Scotland had in in 2014, but what’s changed since then?</p>
<p>Graeme: So quite a lot has changed actually. So firstly, there’s been quite a number of changes to the economic context. The changes in the oil and gas industry has removed a significant potential source of revenue for any future independent Scotland. Oil prices are lower and the tax system is now much more generous in terms of taxing less than it had in the past. And that really matters in a Scottish context because it’s got higher public expenditure than the rest of the UK so oil revenues would have been one way to help it support that. I think the other change is obviously COVID and Scotland like every other country in the world has gone through a tremendous economic upheaval. </p>
<p>I think the second thing is about the politics of all of this, and the politics have clearly also changed since 2014. Brexit being the obvious example of that, where in 2014 the argument was that voting to stay part of the UK was a way to guarantee and be, retain membership of the European Union. But obviously then the subsequent referendum in 2016, and the UK now leaving, has changed that. And that has a number of implications, in particular for issues around borders, issues around potential currency choices. The whole dynamics of that debate has changed. </p>
<p>Gemma: After a prolonged Brexit negotiation period with many twists and turns, the UK finally left the EU on January 31 2020. But the full effects of Brexit weren’t felt until January 1 this year, when a transition period ended and the new rules governing the relationship between the UK and the rest of the EU came into effect. </p>
<p>Graeme: The immediate challenges have been concentrated largely in a relatively small number of sectors so things like fishing and the ability to get products, fresh products to market quickly have been impacted negatively impacted by some of the challenges at borders during the switchover to the new Brexit arrangements. </p>
<p>I think the biggest challenge, though, I think for the Scottish economy, as for the UK economy, is less about the immediate impact of Brexit but more about the longer-term challenges. So about nearly half of all Scottish international exports go into the EU. We have an ageing population so we rely on migrants coming in to Scotland to help support our economy, and Scotland’s done well through universities and businesses with that collaboration with Europe. So it’s those things that will gradually be eroded over time that I think are the greatest concern for the Scottish economy.</p>
<p>Gemma: All this has increasingly boosted support for an independent Scotland. Here’s Kezia Dugdale again.</p>
<p>Kezia: Since January 2020 there have been 25 opinion polls on the constitutional question. Twenty-two of them have shown yes ahead of no which is very new. I think there were only two polls ever in the run up to 2014 that had yes ahead of no. So now you’re looking at for the past nearly 18 months yes being consistently ahead. </p>
<p>Gemma: There have been some recent exceptions, with a few polls showing no just back in front, which some analysts suggest may be down to the success of the UK’s coronavirus vaccine rollout. But in general, Kezia says the reason people have moved from no to yes, in favour of independence in the past few years, has to do with Brexit. </p>
<p>Kezia: What’s changed since 2014? Again you need to look at who they are. They are people age 25 to 45, tend to live in urban centres like Edinburgh or Glasgow or along the central belt, where at least two thirds of Scotland’s population can be found. They are educated to a university degree level, mostly. They are socially centre-left but economically centre ground or to the centre-right. So by that I mean there are supporters of gay marriage but they don’t want high taxes, right. So they’re that type of voter. They are passionately proudly pro-European in their identity and almost all of them voted Remain and they’re very angry about it.</p>
<p>So if presented with a binary choice and that binary choice is an independent Scotland in Europe with a progressive leader or staying in the United Kingdom led by, by Boris with a sort of “Little Britain Brexit” mindset they’re choosing the progressive independent Scotland in Europe. They might not like it. They certainly don’t love it but it’s better than what they’ve got.</p>
<p>Gemma: All these issues are now swirling around as Scotland goes to the polls on May 6, in an election campaign taking place in the shadow of the pandemic. Scotland relaxed some of its coronavirus restrictions on April 26, but still, this has been an election campaign like no other. I asked Graeme Roy what the pro-independence movement’s economic case for independence is now going into these elections.</p>
<p>Graeme: The case for the economics of independence is very much built around gaining powers of an independent country like many other small independent countries in Europe and using them in a way that is explicitly targeted to the challenges and opportunities within the Scottish economy. And they often point to other countries that they would like to be comparable to, so Denmark, Norway, places like that that they can say well look these countries are successful and arguably more successful in the UK in many ways, have better outcomes. If Scotland was to be independent then we could seek to follow their lead and have the same quality of life and same strong economy as they do. Of course that’s easy to say. The ability to actually do that is much harder. </p>
<p>Gemma: And let’s look at the flip side there. So the unionist parties, the main one being the Conservative party but also Labour is also a unionist party, is against independence – what is their argument, I guess for economically remaining part of the United Kingdom?</p>
<p>Graeme: One is their argument that Scotland actually does well within the UK. They would also argue that Scotland receives higher public spending per head than most other parts of the UK and therefore again that’s an advantage that Scotland gets by being part of the UK that would be removed if it tried to go on its own and pay for everything on its own. And I think the other strand then is just to, to highlight the point that any transition from the status quo to a new model would be challenging and there’d be uncertainty and particularly in a post-COVID world or when we’re trying to recover from one of the greatest economic shocks we’ve ever had, this challenge of trying to do that at that point in their view wouldn’t make sense.</p>
<p>Gemma: The SNP’s election manifesto says that the party will seek to hold a second referendum “after the COVID crisis is over” – a timeframe widely interpreted as being within the five year term of the next parliament, so before 2026. But under UK law, the Scottish government cannot agree to unilaterally hold an independence referendum. It must seek the permission of the government in Westminster to do so – via something called a Section 30 order. Here’s Darryn Nyatanga again. </p>
<p>Darryn: So the UK government has thus far continued to refuse to grant this order in council, with the prime minister, Boris Johnson, stating that the vote in 2014 was a once-in-a-generation vote. </p>
<p>Gemma: And if Scotland should choose to have a referendum on its own that might spell further kind of questions down the line?</p>
<p>Darryn: Yes, I think this would turn more from a political question into a legal question because the Supreme Court will probably be tasked with looking into the competencies of the Scottish government on, basically unilaterally, holding a referendum.</p>
<p>Gemma: If Scotland did decide to hold a referendum without Westminster’s approval, and then unilaterally declare independence, like Catalonia did in 2017, this could lead to serious questions about the legitimacy of the outcome. And damage any future SNP bid for Scotland to rejoin the EU. </p>
<p>Darryn: International recognition of a newly independent state is much more likely to be forthcoming if the independence process is perceived to have been legitimate. So for Scottish independence, then, it needs to be done in a legitimate manner. And the decision must be accepted by the UK, the EU and the rest of the international community. This is key because the Scottish government want independence, but with EU membership. So if the EU does not recognise the legitimacy of the independence, then they most likely wouldn’t be forthcoming in terms of accepting them as a member state. </p>
<p>Gemma: So the way it’s held really matters?</p>
<p>Darryn: Really does matter, yes.</p>
<p>Gemma: Nicola Sturgeon has ruled out making a unilateral declaration of independence. But this makes the results of the upcoming elections – and the size of the majority – all the more important. Here’s Kezia Dugdale again.</p>
<p>Kezia: So we have 129 members of the Scottish parliament, you’ve got 73 constituency seats. The remaining 56 seats are made up of eight regions which each elect seven MSPs proportionately, using a formula called the De Hond’t system. And this combination of first past the post and PR means that we’ve had a more colourful parliament than you would expect in the UK system. But this system of PR, where it’s called the additional member system overall, is designed to produce coalitions. In fact it’s supposed to stop outright majorities.</p>
<p>Gemma: And that is what happened, until 2011, when the SNP won a majority in the Scottish Parliament for the first time. It was this majority that then led the Conservative prime minister at the time, David Cameron, to agree to the Scottish independence referendum. At the 2016 Scottish parliamentary elections, in the wake of the defeat for the yes campaign in that referendum, the SNP narrowly lost its overall majority, falling short by two seats. But Nicola Sturgeon still remained as first minister of a minority government.</p>
<p>Ahead of May 6, the polls have the SNP well in the lead, but it’s unclear whether they have enough support to get an overall majority. Kezia Dugdale thinks this will be difficult.</p>
<p>Kezia: We’re now back in the strange situation where because it happened once people think it can be recreated, which is quite unfair actually on the SNP because they found the sweet spot in 2011, this imaginary sweet spot where they broke the system. It will be very difficult for them to replicate that. </p>
<p>Gemma: But the Green Party is also running on a pro-independence ticket, as is a new party, called Alba, lead by Alex Salmond, the former leader of the SNP who split from the party in bitter and controversial circumstances after allegations of sexual assault. He was acquitted of all charges in 2020, but the affair led to a flurry of other legal challenges and government inquiries that at one point earlier this year appeared to threaten Sturgeon’s own position as first minister. </p>
<p>Even if the SNP doesn’t win an outright majority in May, if more than half of the seats in the Scottish parliament go to parties running on a pro-indepenence platform, the pressure will mount on Boris Johnson to grant Scotland a second referendum. I asked Kezia what options Nicola Sturgeon has available. </p>
<p>Kezia: She has zero options because she’s ruled out what’s commonly referred to as UDI, a universal declaration of independence. I think she’s right to rule that out. So this all boils down to mandates and morality really, right? So if there’s a majority for independence you will see the SNP demand the right to hold a referendum and you’ll see Boris Johnson, I think, say no to it very quickly. The question is how long that no will hold for and what the argument that underpins it is.</p>
<p>So the first thing they’ll say is not during a pandemic. They might say not now, not ever, you said once in a generation. That’s a much riskier strategy for the UK government to take. And there’s a growing school of thought that says if the majority is big, if independence or a second independence referendum feels somehow inevitable, it’s in the UK government’s interest to go now rather than delay for a long period of time.</p>
<p>Gemma: She says that’s because of the current state of pandemic in the UK. </p>
<p>Kezia: As the health element of the pandemic crisis comes to a close. The economic element of the crisis just begins. There are serious concerns now about what happens to business, when the furlough payments end, the system that was supporting so many jobs. Huge number of lost opportunities for young people. A suggestion we could have seriously high rates of youth unemployment come Christmas. Knowing all that, the government are currently spending a lot. We’ve got one of the most right-wing chancellors we’ve seen in my lifetime and he’s spending like a left-wing socialist.</p>
<p>So there’s lots of money swishing around and there’s lots of money coming to Scotland just now and there’s lots of means by which you can demonstrate the value of the United Kingdom to Scotland just now, because of the receipts that are coming in to Scottish bank accounts, whether that be in government or elsewhere. In 18 months time that spending has to stop. It’s going to run out and the UK government will then have to decide what taxes have to go up and what public sector saving decisions or cuts have to be made in order to balance the books. So the longer you wait to hold a second independence referendum, the less advantageous the
circumstances are for the UK government to make the arguments they want to make.</p>
<p>Gemma: Your prediction is that she will ask for one. Westminster will say no. Do you then see there being kind of this, this big standoff or will there just be continual asks? How will it, how will it play out?</p>
<p>Kezia: Yes there’ll be a lot of Punch and Judy-style back and forth politics and every time the UK government says no, it will work in the SNP’s favour to be quite honest, because it reaffirms everything they tell the electorate about the UK government not observing the will of the people of Scotland. </p>
<p>Gemma: For Darryn Nyatanga, the UK is heading towards a constitutional crisis, where it’s quite possible that a majority of people in Scotland don’t want to be part of the UK, but haven’t got a way to leave. </p>
<p>Darryn: For the Conservative party, they are more than happy to continue with the current arrangements of centralisation, but with devolution. Longer-term, if Scotland is to remain within the UK’s union, then its constitutional settlement definitely needs to be reformed. So the best way to do so in my opinion is to radically alter the constitutional status of the United Kingdom as a whole. So moving from a unitary state where power is centred within London, so within the capital, to a federal state. So Canada, for instance, has proven that nationalism can be contained within a federal system. So the largest secessionist party in Quebec, despite spells in government, has so far been unsuccessful in leading the province to succession from Canada. So this is mostly owed to the fact that Quebec under federalism enjoys high levels of autonomy and central representation, something which Scotland lacks at the moment.</p>
<p>Gemma: I asked Graeme Roy what options might be put on the table, to alleviate the inevitable anger of the SNP and its electorate if Westminster continues to refuse Scotland a second referendum even if there is a pro-independence majority. </p>
<p>Graeme: So it’ll be really interesting to see whether part of any response from the UK parties and the UK government is to open up a conversation about what more powers could be given with the hope of trying to satisfy the people who might be on the borderline between wanting Scotland to have more autonomy and the decisions in Edinburgh to be taken at a much more local level and bespoke level for Scotland, but they maybe would be happy with that rather than going to full independence. </p>
<p>Dan: What always interests me about these kind of secessionist movements is that the people can vote and do whatever they need to do, but at the end of the day, the ruling government really has all the cards and that creates interesting scenarios.</p>
<p>Gemma: Yeah and whatever the outcome on May 6, politicians in Edinburgh and in London are gonna have to weigh up their options very carefully. </p>
<p>Gemma: If you want to hear more from Graeme Roy and Kezia Dugdale, you can listen to their podcast <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/0YQoD0wLwjz1T1ahaWOKnb">Spotlight, from the University of Glasgow</a>, discussing public policy and the political process through a Scottish lens. Search for Spotlight on Spotify to listen. </p>
<p>You can also follow The Conversation’s ongoing coverage of the Scottish elections by clicking the links in the show notes, where you can also find a link to a recent article by Graeme Roy on <a href="https://theconversation.com/scottish-independence-referendum-why-the-economic-issues-are-quite-different-to-2014-154119">how Scotland’s economic circumstances have changed since 2014</a>. </p>
<p>Dan: For our next story this week we’re going to join a researcher named Sarah Ackerman to talk about her <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03441-2">new paper on neuroplasticity</a> – and that is the ability of the brain to basically change its structure. Her team was running experiments in fruit flies to try and study why brains in young animals can change so much more easily than the brains in old animals. </p>
<p>Gemma: This heightened neuroplasticity when we’re younger is why kids can learn languages much more easily than adults.</p>
<p>Dan: And there’s still a lot researchers don’t know about this vital ability of the brain. Many diseases are caused by too little or too much neuroplasticity, so being able to turn it or or turn it off has some obvious medical benefits. Sarah and her team wanted to learn what controls these changes to help fight diseases, yes, but this work could also potentially unlock the super-powered learning that comes with a malleable brain.</p>
<p>Sarah: My name is Sarah Ackerman, and I am a post-doctoral fellow in the <a href="https://www.doelab.org/people">Doe Lab</a> at the University of Oregon. I’m really broadly interested in how the body makes and maintains a functioning brain. And specifically what I have been focusing on in my research really for the last ten years since I was a graduate student, is on this special group of cells called glia.</p>
<p>So the human brain is made up of billions of neurons that talk to one another, and this communication is what allows us to do what we need to do. But 50% of the human brain is actually not made of neurons, but made up of these other cell types called glia. And the fact that there are so many of them means that they must be doing something important, but they’ve been largely ignored by the neuroscience community for a long time because we just didn’t know what they did.</p>
<p>So I’m interested in how these glial cells are instructing the neurons to form these connections that allow us, for example, to move through our environment.</p>
<p>Dan: OK. So we’ve got the brain, 50% neurons, 50% glia. What are they doing? </p>
<p>Sarah: We know that there are lots of different types of glial cells. They’re present both in the brain, the spinal cord, out on our nerves, in our limbs.
And in general, we can say that they are necessary for the long-term health of neurons. And they’ve become really a focus of neuroscience research because there’s a lot of evidence that in different neurological disorders or neurodegenerative disorders that these glia are becoming sick and dying. So I think one of the most studied cases of this is in multiple sclerosis where you get loss of the glial cells that wrap around neurons in the brain. And when you lose those glia, the neurons die and then you end up with multiple sclerosis. And so we know there’s a lot of variety. They do a lot of things, but if we were to sum it up into one word, they’re there to allow neurons to survive for a long time. </p>
<p>Cause if you think about it, the neurons that are present in our adult brains, they’re the same neurons that were born when you were in the womb and so they have to make it a long time. And these glia are what are there to help them. </p>
<p>Dan: The importance of the cells that keep neurons alive – that has got to be huge. But your research was looking at something a little more specific than just the, like, maintenance, so to speak. What was it that you were looking at?</p>
<p>Sarah: Yeah, so there’s this one type of glia called an astrocyte and they’re called astrocytes cause they have this really beautiful star shaped structure in the brain. So if you, if you strain to look at them, you see these little stars kind of all throughout the nervous system and these are these astrocytes.
And specifically what I was looking at is the role of these astrocytes in neuro-plasticity. OK, so neuroplasticity is this big word, but all it really means is the ability of neurons to change their shape and to change their signalling strength in response to, for example, experiences. And so what I was studying is how these glial cells are shaping or instructing the level of plasticity that occurs in the brain at different periods in well, in this case, the fruit fly’s life, but hopefully this will extend into how this works in humans as well. </p>
<p>Dan: OK, so we’ve got neuroplasticity allows basically neurons to change. Why is that important? What does that mean for me?</p>
<p>Sarah: Neuroplasticity allows for you to learn and embrace new tasks. So you have probably heard the phrase “practice makes perfect”. So when we practice a certain task, for example, playing a piano or learning a new sport, this engages or turns on plasticity in the brain, and this allows those neurons to start changing and strengthening their connections so that you become a better player over time. And so plasticity is really important for us to form and maintain those connections in the brain that enable us to do different tasks.</p>
<p>Dan: Your work was looking at how astrocytes – those star-shaped cells – can turn off plasticity. So what do you mean turn that off? It sounds like I’d always want my plasticity on full crank, 100%, right?</p>
<p>Sarah: Yeah, that’s a great question. So we know that neuroplasticity is really, really strong in a child’s brain. So for example, I’m sure many of your listeners like me have tried to learn a new language at some point in their adult life and found it to be like just impossible, where children can pick up multiple languages really quickly. So what is the deal with that? </p>
<p>Well, in childhood, the brain is super plastic or malleable and that allows kids to learn new tasks and skills really quickly. But then at some point in our maturing brain, this plasticity starts to wane. And so the question is why? Why would we not want to be like super plastic all the time? Well, there’s some evidence that prolonged plasticity, beyond childhood, is linked or can contribute to neurological conditions where you see kind of the activity of neurons is not controlled well in the brain. So think of epilepsy or schizophrenia. And so there’s a certain point in our life where we want these neural connections to be solid. We want there to be a little bit of flexibility for learning and memory, but not so much dramatic plasticity that the connections are constantly rearranging.</p>
<p>Dan: OK, so we’ve got this need to shut down plasticity or control it or limit it in some way. Why fruit flies?</p>
<p>Sarah: Fruit flies are really an excellent model for neuroplasticity because while they’re simple, they have many of the same cell types, including astrocytes and neurons. And they have many of the same genes that are present in humans. And in fact, there have been six Nobel prizes awarded for research in flies that changed our understanding of how biology works in humans.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394317/original/file-20210409-13-1a039sz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A colorful microscope image of a developing fruit fly brain." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394317/original/file-20210409-13-1a039sz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394317/original/file-20210409-13-1a039sz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=342&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394317/original/file-20210409-13-1a039sz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=342&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394317/original/file-20210409-13-1a039sz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=342&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394317/original/file-20210409-13-1a039sz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394317/original/file-20210409-13-1a039sz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394317/original/file-20210409-13-1a039sz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In this image showing a developing fruit fly brain on the right and the attached nerve cord on the left, the astrocytes are labeled in different colors showing their wide distribution among neurons.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sarah DeGenova Ackerman</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>And so I wanted to use the fruit fly in order to identify different ways that the brain restricts plasticity to these earlier developmental stages or these young brains. And fly is a great model for that, because we have the ability to change the activity of neurons, in other words, to induce plasticity at different stages and see what happens under different manipulations.</p>
<p>And so what I found is that the neurons in the fruit fly brain are really plastic early in life as, as we know for humans as well, and then this plasticity wanes. But if I got rid of these astrocytes, these glial cells, these neurons maintain their plasticity much later in development.</p>
<p>Dan: This stuff could potentially have relevance to humans and people, and you know, potentially other animals too. But what are some of those potential applications? </p>
<p>Sarah: There are a lot, they’re all kind of a ways down the road, but in humans, like spinal cord injuries or neck injuries, for example, there’s very limited recovery for these patients because of failure to re-engage in the mature nervous system. So my goal is to use the fly to identify common and core principles that regulate plasticity so that we might take advantage of these pathways or try to find therapies or drugs that alter or work through these pathways to either increase or dial up plasticity or dial down plasticity whenever it’s needed. Or even, you know, age related, memory loss that doesn’t shoot all the way to dementia. All of these conditions are somehow influenced by plasticity mechanisms, just going awry, whether too much or too little or at the wrong time. And so if we can really understand the basic mechanisms that are shaping plasticity, this could become a way that we could really impact a lot of lives. </p>
<p>Dan: Awesome. Well, Sarah, thanks to you and to your undergrad for making a difference. </p>
<p>Sarah: Thank you. </p>
<p>Dan: You can read an article that Sarah Ackerman has written about her research on theconversation.com. We’ll put <a href="https://theconversation.com/astrocyte-cells-in-the-fruit-fly-brain-are-an-on-off-switch-that-controls-when-neurons-can-change-and-grow-158601">a link</a> in the show notes. </p>
<p>Gemma: To end this episode. We’ve got some reading recommendations from our colleague, Moina Spooner at The conversation in Nairobi, Kenya.</p>
<p>Moina: Hi, this is Moina Spooner from The Conversation, based in Kenya. We’ve had a couple of big stories in the East African region this week. The first is on Somalia, where there have been clashes between militia groups and soldiers of the federal government. Claire Elder, a lecturer from the London School of Economics and Political Science, explains how the current government’s decision on April 12 to seek a two-year extension has thrown Somalia’s fragile political process into disarray. With the situation now escalating, she argues that external mediation is needed as <a href="https://theconversation.com/somalia-toxic-elite-politics-and-the-need-for-cautious-external-mediation-159270">toxic elite politics take root</a> and the political window for a Somali-led process is closing.</p>
<p>Another big story in the region is Kenya’s announcement that it’s going to close the country’s two main refugee camps, Kakuma and Dadaab. This means that all the refugees will now need to be repatriated. It would affect over 400,000 people, most of whom are of Somali origin. Kenya is trying to legitimise this action by labelling the refugees as a threat to national security.</p>
<p>The pretext is that the camps are abetting terrorists, namely Al-Shabaab. Oscar Mwangi, an associate professor of political science from the National University of Lesotho, argues that in doing so, Kenya has <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-kenya-is-on-thin-ice-in-its-justification-for-sending-somali-refugees-back-home-159356">failed to comply with international law by compromising the refugees’ rights</a>. And that Kenya has also disregarded its commitments to international humanitarian obligations. That’s all for me for now. Take care and I hope you enjoy the reads.</p>
<p>Gemma: Moina Spooner there in Nairobi. That’s it for this week. Thanks to all the academics who’ve spoken to us for this episode. And to The Conversation editors Laura Hood, Steven Vass, Jane Wright, Moina Spooner and Stephen Khan for their help. And thanks to Alice Mason, Imriel Morgan and Sharai White for our social media promotion. </p>
<p>Dan: You can find us on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/TC_Audio">@TC_Audio</a>, on Instagram at <a href="https://www.instagram.com/theconversationdotcom/?hl=en">theconversationdotcom</a> or send us an email at podcast@theconversation.com. And if you want to learn more about any of the things we talked about on the show today, there are links to further reading in the shownotes, and you can also sign up for our <a href="https://theconversation.com/newsletter?utm_campaign=PodcastTCWeekly&utm_content=newsletter&utm_source=podcast">free daily email</a>. </p>
<p>Gemma: The Conversation Weekly is co-produced by Mend Mariwany and me, Gemma Ware, with sound design by Eloise Stevens. Our theme music is by Neeta Sarl. </p>
<p>Dan: And I’m Dan Merino. Thanks so much for listening everyone.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/160042/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
A transcript of episode 13 of The Conversation Weekly podcast, including new research on neuroplasticity in the brain.Gemma Ware, Head of AudioLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1598832021-04-29T10:54:32Z2021-04-29T10:54:32ZScotland: Why May election is crucial for independence movement, and the UK – podcast<p>In this episode of <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/the-conversation-weekly-98901">The Conversation Weekly podcast</a>, as Scotland prepares to vote in landmark parliamentary elections on May 6, we explore why the question of independence from the UK is dominating the debate. And a team of researchers working with fruit flies, has discovered a biological switch that can turn neuroplasticity on and off in the brain. What might that mean?</p>
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<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-561" class="tc-infographic" height="100" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/561/4fbbd099d631750693d02bac632430b71b37cd5f/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>It’s been seven years since Scotland voted to remain in the UK in the 2014 independence referendum. At the time, it was billed as a once-in-a-generation vote, but now Scotland’s first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, argues that the UK’s Brexit from the European Union is a change significant enough to warrant a second referendum. Meanwhile, support has been growing for independence <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/3ea5b867-9a3c-404e-b2f9-c644fee4e3bd">over the past few years</a>.</p>
<p>Sturgeon’s Scottish National Party (SNP) is the largest pro-independence group. If pro-independence parties hold a majority in the Scottish parliament after the May 6 election – Sturgeon will ask the UK government in Westminster, led by Boris Johnson, for a second referendum on Scottish independence. But he’s unlikely to agree. </p>
<p>In this episode, we speak to three experts to explain what’s at stake and what could happen next. Kezia Dugdale, is director of the <a href="https://www.gla.ac.uk/schools/socialpolitical/johnsmith/">John Smith Centre</a> and a lecturer in public policy at the University of Glasgow, as well as a former leader of the Scottish Labour Party. She explains that a person’s stance on independence is “still the biggest dominating factor over how you will vote in party-political terms” in Scotland. Dugdale predicts that if there is a pro-independence majority, but Johnson’s government refuses to grant Scotland permission to hold a second referendum, “there’ll be a lot of Punch and Judy-style back and forth”. But she says that every time the UK government says no it will work in the SNP’s favour because, “it reaffirms everything they tell the electorate about the UK government not observing the will of the people of Scotland”.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/brexit-has-changed-peoples-minds-on-independence-qanda-with-kezia-dugdale-former-scottish-labour-leader-159858">'Brexit has changed people's minds on independence': Q&A with Kezia Dugdale, former Scottish Labour leader</a>
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<p>Darren Nyatanga, a PhD candidate at the University of Liverpool, where he’s researching the constitutional impacts of Brexit on the UK union, explains the process through which a second referendum could happen. He says the referendum’s legitimacy is vital, particularly given the SNP’s wish for an independent Scotland to rejoin the EU. “If the EU does not recognise the legitimacy of independence,” he says, then its unlikely they will be forthcoming in “accepting them as a member state”.</p>
<p>And economist Graeme Roy, dean of external engagement at the <a href="https://www.gla.ac.uk/colleges/socialsciences/">College of Social Sciences at the University of Glasgow</a>, sets out the economic arguments used by both sides in the independence debate. Roy says that a lot has changed economically for Scotland since the 2014 referendum, particularly due to falling revenues from North Sea oil. “That really matters in a Scottish context,” he says, because it has higher public expenditure than the rest of the UK, “so oil revenues would have been one way to help it support that.”</p>
<p>For our next story, we hear about some new research into neuroplasticity – the brain’s ability to change its structure. The brains of young animals can change more easily than adults – which is why, for example, kids can learn languages more easily than adults. Many diseases are caused by to little or too much neuroplasticity – and being able to turn it off and on has obvious medical benefits. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03441-2">New research</a> published recently by Sarah Ackerman, postdoctoral fellow at the Institute of Neuroscience and Howard Hughes Medical Institute, University of Oregon, and her team, on their research using fruit flies, looked into what controls these changes. The goal is to help fight diseases, but this work could also potentially unlock the superpowered learning that comes with a malleable brain. We talk to her about what she’s found. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/astrocyte-cells-in-the-fruit-fly-brain-are-an-on-off-switch-that-controls-when-neurons-can-change-and-grow-158601">Astrocyte cells in the fruit fly brain are an on-off switch that controls when neurons can change and grow</a>
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<p>And Moina Spooner, commissioning editor at The Conversation in Nairobi, Kenya, gives us her recommended reads for the week.</p>
<p>The Conversation Weekly is produced by Mend Mariwany and Gemma Ware, with sound design by Eloise Stevens. Our theme music is by Neeta Sarl. You can find us on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/TC_Audio">@TC_Audio</a>, on Instagram at <a href="https://www.instagram.com/theconversationdotcom/?hl=en">theconversationdotcom</a>. or via email on podcast@theconversation.com. You can also sign up to <a href="https://theconversation.com/newsletter?utm_campaign=PodcastTCWeekly&utm_content=newsletter&utm_source=podcast">The Conversation’s free daily email here</a>.</p>
<p>A transcript of this episode <a href="https://theconversation.com/scottish-independence-whats-at-stake-in-may-elections-160042">is available here.</a></p>
<p>News clips in this episode are from <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1TmUP1StPf0">BBC</a> <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QlMKebueygY">News</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xNMA9kra_fg">ITV</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aYJPh0TIPKQ">Sky News</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yWNjKsUJnQU">Channel 4 News</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r7GM4nK5axc">The Telegraph</a> and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n1PQBND3Xa4">CBS News</a>. </p>
<p><em>You can listen to The Conversation Weekly via any of the apps listed above, our <a href="https://feeds.acast.com/public/shows/60087127b9687759d637bade">RSS feed</a>, or find out how else to <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-listen-to-the-conversations-podcasts-154131">listen here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/159883/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Plus, how researchers have discovered a biological switch that can turn neuroplasticity on and off in the brain. Listen to episode 13 of The Conversation Weekly podcast.Gemma Ware, Head of AudioDaniel Merino, Associate Breaking News Editor and Co-Host of The Conversation Weekly PodcastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1586532021-04-09T14:58:12Z2021-04-09T14:58:12ZScottish election: Alex Salmond’s Alba gamble could yet tip scales on second independence referendum<p>The Scottish elections on May 6 are potentially shaping up to have a big impact on the constitutional future of Scotland and the UK. There is little doubt about who the largest party will be after the elections. Despite 14 years in power, the Scottish National Party (SNP) will get there comfortably. </p>
<p>First of all, there are the <a href="https://www.thenational.scot/news/19054486.nicola-sturgeon-popular-leader-uk-poll-finds/">high ratings</a> of the first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, for her handling of the coronavirus. These compare favourably not just to her rivals in Scotland but also to the ratings of UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson.</p>
<p>However, the SNP will remain dominant for other reasons too. There is the impact of two referendums. The <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/events/scotland-decides/results">first on independence</a>, which divided Scotland on its constitutional future in the UK in 2014. The second on the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/eu_referendum/results">UK’s membership</a> of the EU in 2016, which led to Brexit but was rejected by the majority of voters in Scotland. Five years on, most recent polls are showing a pro-independence majority in Scotland.</p>
<p><strong>Scottish independence poll tracker</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394014/original/file-20210408-23-198xs1m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Poll tracker for Scottish independence" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394014/original/file-20210408-23-198xs1m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394014/original/file-20210408-23-198xs1m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=341&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394014/original/file-20210408-23-198xs1m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=341&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394014/original/file-20210408-23-198xs1m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=341&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394014/original/file-20210408-23-198xs1m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394014/original/file-20210408-23-198xs1m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394014/original/file-20210408-23-198xs1m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-would-you-vote-in-the-in-a-scottish-independence-referendum-if-held-now-ask/?removed">What Scotland Thinks</a></span>
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<p>The nature of <a href="http://www.parlamaid-alba.org/gd/visitandlearn/Education/16285.aspx">Scotland’s electoral system</a>, ironically created by a Labour government, also benefits the SNP. The parliament has 129 members and voters have two votes – the first for a candidate and the second for a party. The first vote is for the 73 constituency MSPs (Members of the Scottish Parliament) and the other is for the 56 regional list MSPs, in which the party votes are used to make the overall result more proportional to voting behaviour. </p>
<p>The SNP will dominate the constituency seats as they will win the support of most independence supporters, while the pro-union parties will split the unionist vote among themselves. Because there are more constituency seats than list seats, this means that the SNP tends to come out top overall. </p>
<h2>Any other business?</h2>
<p>Although the SNP will almost certainly remain dominant in Scotland, there are numerous other questions that still need to be answered. First, who will finish second? Either the Conservatives or Labour. Both have new leaders in Scotland since the last election there. In 2016, the SNP won 63 seats (down six from 2011), two short of an outright majority. The Conservatives won 31 (+16), Labour won 24 (-13) and the Greens and Lib Dems won 6 (+4) and 5 (-) respectively. </p>
<p>The Conservatives’ Douglas Ross supports the idea of a unionist alliance. He <a href="https://www.thenational.scot/news/19205501.douglas-ross-fails-form-pro-union-alliance-labour-libdems/">reportedly tried</a> and failed to persuade Labour’s Anas Sarwar and the Lib Dems’ Willie Rennie to agree to a public pledge to refuse to work with any pro-referendum parties and to come together to force out the SNP if there were sufficient numbers in Holyrood. Ross will now be focused on portraying his party as the main unionist opposition to Sturgeon’s SNP.</p>
<p>Labour will mostly likely try to play to what they view as their strength: not talking about the constitution and focusing on other issues. This appeals to certain voters but they could just as easily end up squeezed unless Sarwar can break through. That’s a tough task in a rather polarised electorate. Focusing on the post-COVID recovery may aid Labour, or it could just remind voters that Sturgeon is considered to have performed well during the pandemic.</p>
<p>Finishing second is really the dream for Labour. Having lost votes at every previous Scottish parliamentary election, it would certainly be an improvement, albeit they would still be distantly behind the SNP. The party that was once the dominant force in Scotland remains a shadow of its former self.</p>
<p>The joker in the pack is the former first minister, Alex Salmond, the leader of the <a href="https://www.albaparty.org/">new Alba party</a>. Twice SNP leader and with over 30 years in front-line politics, he is a formidable campaigner. Yet <a href="https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/nicola-sturgeon-to-fall-short-of-majority-as-alex-salmonds-alba-party-deprives-snp-of-key-list-seats-poll-shows-3192641">Salmond’s popularity</a> is much diminished, with <a href="https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/alex-salmond-behind-boris-johnson-23873752">ratings below</a> those of Boris Johnson.</p>
<p>Nonetheless Salmond is a renowned gambler. He is hoping his new <a href="https://www.albaparty.org/">Alba party</a> can persuade enough SNP voters to back his party on the regional list. Alba has attracted those independence campaigners unhappy with Sturgeon’s more cautious leadership of the SNP, though Salmond has become a <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-55996021">controversial figure</a> following the parliamentary inquiry into the handling of his sexual assault charges.</p>
<p>Salmond has talked about achieving a “supermajority” for independence at the May election, though so far the opinion polls have been variable: <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nationalists-on-course-to-win-supermajority-g05l8c0st">some say</a> Alba will win a few seats and that the pro-independence parties will achieve a supermajority, while others predict that Salmond <a href="https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/nicola-sturgeon-to-fall-short-of-majority-as-alex-salmonds-alba-party-deprives-snp-of-key-list-seats-poll-shows-3192641">could deprive</a> the SNP of a majority without Alba winning any seats. </p>
<p>This may also affect the pro-independence Scottish Greens. They could end up with a similar role to 2016-21, providing crucial votes to the SNP government in return for some of their policies being adopted – or in coalition.</p>
<h2>Trouble for Johnson</h2>
<p>From the UK government’s perspective, ideally the SNP will fall short of winning a majority of seats. This would make it easier for Johnson to refuse to allow Sturgeon to hold another independence referendum.</p>
<p>However, if the SNP does well and the pro-independence parties do win a large majority, forces outside the SNP may become more important. The more hardline yes supporters no doubt hope that Alba could win enough regional list members to allow up to two-thirds of seats to be controlled by the pro-independence parties.</p>
<p>If blocked from holding a referendum by Westminster, a two-thirds majority would give the pro-independence forces control over the Scottish parliament’s ability to dissolve itself. This would allow a fresh election to be potentially held as a direct plebiscite on independence, setting Scotland on a collision course with Westminster.</p>
<p>This is unlikely, however. Alba may not win the number of seats they dream of and Sturgeon’s more moderate approach is extremely unlikely to sanction such a move, wary of the recent example <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/10/catalan-government-suspends-declaration-of-independence">of Catalonia</a>, where a unilateral declaration of independence failed.</p>
<p>Nevertheless the SNP, facing competition for the first time from another party whose primary purpose is also independence, may still feel pressured to push for a referendum through the Scottish parliament with or without the support of Westminster. But Sturgeon would only proceed with such a strategy if the referendum were legal, <a href="https://www.centreonconstitutionalchange.ac.uk/opinions/second-scottish-independence-referendum-without-s30-order-legal-question-demands-political">and opinion</a> on that <a href="https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/corporate-report/2019/12/scotlands-right-choose-putting-scotlands-future-scotlands-hands/documents/scotlands-right-to-choose-putting-scotlands-future-in-scotlands-hands/scotlands-right-to-choose-putting-scotlands-future-in-scotlands-hands/govscot%3Adocument/scotlands-right-choose-putting-scotlands-future-scotlands-hands.pdf">remains disputed</a>. </p>
<p>In short, it’s a vital election in Scotland. As the UK slowly emerges from the pandemic, a constitutional clash between supporters of Scottish independence and Johnson’s UK government looks a distinct possibility. The situation is only likely to get more intense as we move towards May 6.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/158653/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>William McDougall is affiliated with both the SNP and EIS but writes in a personal capacity. </span></em></p>There’s everything to play for as Scotland counts down to May 6.William McDougall, Lecturer in Politics, Glasgow Caledonian UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1579852021-03-26T17:52:32Z2021-03-26T17:52:32ZScottish independence: could wind power Scotland back into the EU?<p>Now that First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has survived the investigation over the handling of the case against Alex Salmond, Scotland’s attention is turning to the country’s May election. With the SNP seeking a clear mandate for a second referendum on the back of the vote, independence is back to the top of the agenda. It remains to be seen how Salmond’s new pro-independence <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/mar/26/alex-salmond-launches-new-independence-focused-political-party-alba">Alba party</a> will affect the outcome, but according to the latest independence polls, support for leaving the UK is <a href="https://natcen.ac.uk/our-research/research/what-scotland-thinks/">still narrowly</a> in front. </p>
<iframe id="noa-web-audio-player" style="border: none" src="https://embed-player.newsoveraudio.com/v4?key=x84olp&id=https://theconversation.com/scottish-independence-could-wind-power-scotland-back-into-the-eu-157985&bgColor=F5F5F5&color=D8352A&playColor=D8352A" width="100%" height="110px"></iframe>
<p>Yet there is much more economic and political uncertainty in Scotland than in 2014. Following Brexit, Scotland is having to choose which economic area it most wants to associate with – the UK or the EU. </p>
<p>Remaining in the UK means continuing Scotland’s existing economic relationship with England and Wales while facing a more complex relationship with the EU and more controversially Northern Ireland, which effectively remains in the single market.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/391946/original/file-20210326-21-1h887d1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A thistle" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/391946/original/file-20210326-21-1h887d1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/391946/original/file-20210326-21-1h887d1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391946/original/file-20210326-21-1h887d1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391946/original/file-20210326-21-1h887d1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391946/original/file-20210326-21-1h887d1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391946/original/file-20210326-21-1h887d1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391946/original/file-20210326-21-1h887d1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Finances are a thorny matter.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/DyENefFUKlk">Illiya Vjestica/Unsplash</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>What about voting for independence and joining the EU? One major problem is the EU fiscal rules, which require a general budget deficit of no more than 3% of GDP per member (this is <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/economic-governance/news/commission-wants-to-keep-fiscal-rules-suspended-in-2022/">temporarily suspended</a> because of COVID). </p>
<p>In 2019-20, <a href="https://www.gov.scot/publications/government-expenditure-revenue-scotland-gers-2019-20/">Scotland’s deficit</a> amounted to 6.9% if North Sea oil revenues are included (or 7.5% without it). This was a considerable improvement on earlier years, but still well above the threshold – and that was before the pandemic. </p>
<p>Now UK borrowing is hitting <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/282796/uk-government-borrowing/#:%7E:text=In%20February%202021%2C%20the%20government,in%20this%20provided%20time%20period.">record highs</a> and the Institute for Fiscal Studies thinks Scotland’s effective deficit will have reached <a href="https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/14982#:%7E:text=Scotland's%20implicit%20budget%20deficit%20could,Institute%20For%20Fiscal%20Studies%20%2D%20IFS">close to 30%</a> in 2020-21. This will affect the long-term debt burden of both the UK and Scotland, and raises questions about how an independent Scotland’s share of the UK debt should be calculated. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/scottish-independence-referendum-why-the-economic-issues-are-quite-different-to-2014-154119">Scottish independence referendum: why the economic issues are quite different to 2014</a>
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<p>Any analysis of independence economics should therefore start by asking whether an independent Scotland could balance the books by increasing revenues and decreasing spending and how willing Scottish society would be to potentially make sacrifices.
Trade looks likely to exacerbate this problem – in the short-term at least. Currently more than 60% of Scotland’s commerce is directed to other UK countries (<a href="https://escoe-website.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/16103450/ESCoE-DP-2020-09.pdf">including Northern Ireland</a>, now practically an EU market for trading purposes) while only about 19% goes to the EU. </p>
<p>Ireland was actually similar before it joined the then European Economic Community (EEC) in 1973. <a href="https://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/releasespublications/documents/statisticalyearbook/2004/ireland&theeu.pdf">Just before joining</a>, almost 55% of her exports and 51% of imports were directed to the UK, while only 21% went to the EEC. These shares <a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-8173/#:%7E:text=They%20are%20taken%20from%20the,surplus%20of%20%C2%A310.0%20billion.&text=Ireland%20accounted%20for%205.8%25%20of,4.2%25%20of%20all%20UK%20imports.">have since</a> completely reversed, though it has taken time and was very complicated and costly for the country as such overhaul requires finding new markets and adjusting to the requirements of new customers, which is always costly for both workers and firms.</p>
<p>Scotland would have to go through a similar adjustment, and voters should be aware of this.</p>
<p>Scottish exports were at least competitive in the EU market pre-Brexit. <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/oil-income-is-a-bigger-issue-than-start-up-costs-warns-economist-j2klfxd2z5b">In 2014</a>, some economists suggested that dwindling North Sea oil revenues were a red herring and that Scotland could develop a competitive advantage in well-performing areas like food and drink, financial services, sustainable tourism and green energy. </p>
<h2>The EU and green energy</h2>
<p>One big question is how rejoining the EU would affect Scotland’s finances. The EU would not subsidise Scottish public sector spending, and would probably not make funds available through the bloc’s <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/en/funding/cohesion-fund/#:%7E:text=The%20Cohesion%20Fund%20is%20aimed,and%20to%20promote%20sustainable%20development.">Cohesion Fund</a>. Scots might not think their country is rich, but it earns <a href="https://fraserofallander.org/new-gross-national-income-figures-for-scotland/">more than 90%</a> of <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GNP.PCAP.PP.CD?locations=EU">the EU’s</a> average gross national income – well above <a href="https://data.oecd.org/natincome/gross-national-income.htm">various needier members</a>. </p>
<p>However, the <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/en/funding/erdf/">European Regional Development Fund</a> (ERDF) could be of assistance, potentially easing the transition for the nation’s public finances. The ERDF, the 2014-20 budget of which <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/factsheets/en/sheet/95/european-regional-development-fund-erdf">amounted to</a> €199 billion (£170 billion), focuses on the areas which could well be priorities for an independent Scotland such as innovation and research, the digital agenda, support for small businesses and the low-carbon economy. </p>
<p>Green energy would be of particular mutual interest to Scotland and the EU, especially wind power, for which Scotland has the <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-advantage-scotland-when-it-comes-to-wind-power-15900">most favourable</a> conditions in Europe. Scotland’s accession would be valuable to help the EU meet <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2050_en">its goal</a> of climate neutrality by 2050. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.caneurope.org/content/uploads/2018/09/Assessment-EU-budget-climate-mainstreaming-CAN-Europe-August-2018.pdf">At least 25%</a> of the EU’s long-term budget is to be dedicated to climate action, while the European Investment Bank, the EU’s lending arm, <a href="https://www.eib.org/attachments/thematic/eib_group_climate_and_environmental_ambitions_en.pdf">plans to invest</a> €1 trillion in climate action and environmental sustainability between now and 2030. </p>
<p>Scotland’s <a href="https://www.scottishrenewables.com/our-industry/statistics">wind power capacity</a> is <a href="https://community.ieawind.org/HigherLogic/System/DownloadDocumentFile.ashx?DocumentFileKey=b1ee7fca-f393-c834-293d-4db886b14370&forceDialog=0">comparable with</a> Italy and below only Germany, Spain and France. But more importantly, <a href="https://www.current-news.co.uk/news/renewables-meet-97-4-of-scotlands-electricity-consumption-in-2020#:%7E:text=Scotland%20has%20fallen%20just%20short,37%25%20of%20Scotland's%20electricity%20demand.">97% of</a> internal energy consumption in Scotland originates from renewables. The EU member with the highest green energy consumption is Sweden, with less than 60%. <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Renewable_energy_statistics#:%7E:text=In%202019%2C%20renewable%20energy%20represented,27%20reached%208.9%20%25%20in%202019.">The EU total</a> is only around 20%, so Scotland would immediately raise this share. </p>
<p>Any increase in Scotland’s wind energy production could also be diverted to supply the EU with green energy, further increasing its overall share. Yes <a href="https://www.nationalgrid.com/stories/energy-explained/what-are-electricity-interconnectors#:%7E:text=In%202019%2C%20interconnectors%20supplied%208,between%20Great%20Britain%20and%20Europe.">there are limitations</a> with the electrical interconnectors, but EU finance could be used to expand them.</p>
<p>As Glasgow gets ready to host the <a href="https://ukcop26.org/">COP26</a> climate conference in November, Scotland’s competitive advantage in green energy ought to be an important part of the economic case for independence if and when the second referendum takes place.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/157985/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Those who talk down an independent Scotland’s prospects are not factoring in one of its biggest natural resources.Piotr Marek Jaworski, Lecturer in Economics, Edinburgh Napier UniversityKenny Crossan, Lecturer in Economics, Edinburgh Napier UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1541192021-01-28T16:38:15Z2021-01-28T16:38:15ZScottish independence referendum: why the economic issues are quite different to 2014<p>Independence has returned to the top of the agenda in Scotland after First Minister Nicola Sturgeon signalled that her Scottish National Party (SNP) will hold a consultative second referendum after the May election if there is a pro-indepedence majority in the Scottish parliament – regardless of whether Westminster gives its approval. </p>
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<p>This shift towards threatening unilateral action has coincided with <a href="https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19034634.union-pressure-polls-suggest-people-want-votes-scottish-independence-united-ireland/">the 20th</a> opinion poll <a href="https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/scotland/2021/01/scottish-independence-poll-tracker-will-scotland-vote-leave-uk">in a row</a> showing a majority in favour of Scotland leaving the union. The polls are also suggesting that the election will produce another pro-independence majority in Holyrood, or even an outright SNP majority. </p>
<p>If a second referendum takes place, economics will probably be at the forefront of the debate. This happened in the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/events/scotland-decides/results">2014 campaign</a>, when voters became remarkably clued up on everything from the future of the currency to the finer points of imports and exports. But six years on, how have the economic arguments changed, and what will the key battlegrounds be?</p>
<h2>Brexit and the new status quo</h2>
<p>Many of the arguments will be familiar from last time. Independence supporters will argue that Scotland has comparable strengths to other small countries. Many will no doubt contrast their vision of a socially progressive independent Scotland within the EU, with a less favourable future in post-Brexit Britain.</p>
<p>Unionists will emphasise the risks and the costs of putting up barriers with the UK economy. They will argue that Holyrood already has substantial powers over key economic policy areas within skills and education, economic development and, since 2016, <a href="https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20151202171029/http://www.smith-commission.scot/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/The_Smith_Commission_Report-1.pdf">tax</a>. </p>
<p>But in other ways, the debate has changed markedly. Back then, the choice was between independence and a relatively stable status quo – albeit with a <a href="https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron-ed-miliband-nick-4265992">pledge of “more powers”</a> that was made in the days before the vote. </p>
<p>But Brexit makes the future much less certain for the UK and Scotland. Scotland’s economy will be <a href="http://www.parliament.scot/ResearchBriefingsAndFactsheets/S5/SB_16-77_The_Economic_Implications_of_Brexit.pdf">worse off</a>. “No” voters in 2014 who feared that Scotland might find itself outside the EU – even temporarily – might view the economic risks and opportunities very differently this time. </p>
<p>But leaving the EU has also highlighted the practical challenges of economic change. It has given us all a greater understanding of the complexities of unwinding shared economic institutions, the difficulties in negotiating new partnerships, and the costs of breaking apart trade and supply chains. </p>
<p>With Scottish exports to the rest of the UK worth over <a href="https://www.gov.scot/publications/export-stats-scotland-2018/">three times as much as those to the EU</a>, for example, navigating a smooth transition will carry costs. Voters will ask challenging questions of politicians about how any transition will be managed, and what their “plan B” might be should things go awry.</p>
<h2>Scotland’s pros and cons</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.sdi.co.uk/business-in-scotland/scottish-economy-overview">Scotland has a successful economy</a>, with strengths such as energy, financial services and tourism. It has a world-class university sector, is rich in natural resources, and can count on trusted institutions. </p>
<p>It has challenges as well, including <a href="https://www.gov.scot/publications/poverty-income-inequality-scotland-2015-18/#:%7E:text=20%25%20of%20people%20in%20Scotland,poverty%20rate%20continues%20to%20rise.&text=The%20Palma%20coefficient%20measures%20income,than%20the%20bottom%2040%25%20combined.">longstanding inequalities</a>, an ageing population and a business base that is often <a href="https://www.gov.scot/publications/high-level-summary-stats-business-innovation/">less dynamic than its competitors</a>. Public spending is higher compared to the UK – <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/public-expenditure-statistical-analyses-2020">by around 17% in the latest figures</a>. This reflects greater needs in areas such as social security, and higher costs of delivering services, but also historical political choices on UK regional funding. This would have to be paid for under independence.</p>
<p>The overarching economic climate is undoubtedly more challenging than in 2014. For example, oil revenues were a key part of the economic case for independence last time around. In <a href="https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotlands-future/">Scotland’s Future</a> – the Scottish government’s 2013 independence white paper – annual oil revenues were forecast to be between £7 billion and £8 billion by 2016/17. Revenues ended up <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/350890/united-kingdom-uk-north-sea-revenue/">at virtually zero</a> that year, and are forecast to remain no more than £1 billion <a href="http://cdn.obr.uk/CCS1020397650-001_OBR-November2020-EFO-v2-Web-accessible.pdf">for the foreseeable future</a>. </p>
<p>Then there is COVID-19. <a href="https://www.gov.scot/collections/state-of-the-economy/">Scotland’s economy has been badly</a> hit, with a huge rebuilding task ahead. The SNP argues that independence is needed to help with that recovery. But launching a debate on Scotland’s future, let alone transitioning to independence, after the biggest economic shock in living memory will not be easy.</p>
<h2>The economic model for independence</h2>
<p>The economic model put forward by the independence campaign in 2014 was one of continuity. It proposed to retain sterling, keep the Bank of England, align financial regulation and have an open border with the UK underpinned by the EU single market.</p>
<p>But if a key argument for independence is that Scotland now needs to diverge from post-Brexit Britain, economic alignment with the UK is no longer applicable. The <a href="https://www.sustainablegrowthcommission.scot/">SNP’s 2018 Growth Commission</a> outlined its refreshed model for independence. Yet many in the independence movement have called for a more radical approach, including a new currency. </p>
<p>Herein lies a trade-off. The weaker the alignment with the UK economic model, the greater the opportunity to “do things differently”, but the greater the short-term risk and upheaval. </p>
<p>One major unknown will be how the unionist parties respond to this set of circumstances. Will they concentrate on the risks of independence or will they offer a positive economic case for the union? How too will they respond to the criticism that the UK economy isn’t working for Scotland? </p>
<p>Just before Christmas, Labour leader <a href="https://labour.org.uk/keir-starmer-union-speech/">Keir Starmer promised</a> to launch a “new phase of radical economic and political devolution” in the UK. But we’ve heard similar things before and it remains unclear what detail lies behind this ambition. </p>
<p>There is therefore much work to be done, by all sides, in setting out the economic case for and against independence – particularly when held up against the big debates on the future of our economy, from rebuilding after COVID, through to tackling inequalities and supporting the transition to net zero. </p>
<p>One certainty is that voters are all too aware of how quickly promises made – by all sides – during a referendum can evaporate when the campaign ends. Scotland has an engaged electorate who will demand facts and evidence, just as much as political persuasion.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/154119/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Graeme Roy receives funding from ESRC, Nuffield Foundation and Standard Life Foundation. In the past, the Fraser of Allander Institute that Graeme Roy is Director of has received research funding from the UK Government and the Scottish Government. </span></em></p>Economics is set to dominate the debate, just like last time around.Graeme Roy, Head of Economics and Director of the Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1519752021-01-03T14:20:52Z2021-01-03T14:20:52ZScotland could vote to separate in 2021, testing Canada’s independence formula<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/376913/original/file-20210103-49872-13sqj5j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C47%2C3969%2C2584&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A Scottish Saltire flag hangs in the window of an apartment in Edinburgh, Scotland, next to the EU flag in August 2020. Scotland could vote to separate from the U.K. in 2021.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/David Cheskin)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>If the <a href="https://www.snp.org/">Scottish National Party</a> wins Scotland’s parliamentary election in five months, it will be with a mandate to hold a <a href="https://www.parliament.scot/parliamentarybusiness/report.aspx?r=12053&i=109040">second independence referendum</a>. </p>
<p>Scotland <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/what-scotland-independence-crusader-alex-salmond-learned-from-quebec-1.2766564">took the idea that a lawful path to independence exists from the Québec experience</a>, more specifically from a <a href="https://canliiconnects.org/en/summaries/31075">Canadian ruling on Québec secession</a>. If it comes to a constitutional crisis in the United Kingdom, however, the British balance of powers may make a Canadian-style compromise impossible.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/31/post-brexit-trade-deal-boris-johnson-thanks-mps-and-peers-for-passing-bill">With Brexit negotiations finally complete</a>, a process of national reckoning will soon begin that may decide whether the British union survives with its political and constitutional traditions intact. </p>
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<p>Canada faced a similar reckoning in the 1990s after a punishing series of <a href="https://www.clo-ocol.gc.ca/en/timeline-event/canadians-vote-no-charlottetown-accord">failed constitutional negotiations</a> combined with a close <a href="http://collections.musee-mccord.qc.ca/scripts/explore.php?Lang=1&tableid=11&elementid=105__true&contentlong">referendum in Québec</a> to make the independence question unavoidable. </p>
<h2>Canada’s Supreme Court played a role</h2>
<p>Faced with the prospect of a successful vote in Québec, the Canadian government turned to the Supreme Court for advice. The <a href="https://scc-csc.lexum.com/scc-csc/scc-csc/en/item/1643/index.do">1998 Québec Secession Reference case</a> established referendums as a lawful means to legitimate independence, acknowledged Québec’s right to secede and obliged all parties to negotiate an exit in good faith.</p>
<p>Canada was brought to this point because Québec held the power to poll its own electorate. Whether Scotland has the same right is disputed, so Scottish plans to hold an independence vote as <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/scotland-nicola-sturgeon-aims-for-2021-independence-vote/a-55779762">early as 2021</a> sets up a messy confrontation.</p>
<p>The Canadian judgment held that so long as a referendum returned a “<a href="https://www.cbc.ca/archives/entry/supreme-court-answers-quebec-secession-questions">clear majority on a clear question</a>,” the democratic implications of an independence vote could not be ignored. The decision was hailed at the time as even-handed; in reality it was a mixed blessing. </p>
<p>It promised to regulate the process of political divorce and offered the international community a yardstick for recognizing new states, but the question of what constitutes clarity was never resolved, merely <a href="https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/c-31.8/page-1.html">assigned to the Canadian government to decide</a>. Yet if a referendum delivers credibility and a duty to negotiate, the incentive for national governments to obstruct consultation among minorities soars. </p>
<p>Consider, for instance, the spectacle of riot police seizing ballot boxes in a <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2017/10/02/europe/catalonia-independence-referendum-explainer/index.html">2017 Catalan referendum</a> after the Spanish Supreme Court declared it illegal to poll voters on independence.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man holds up a ballot box during a protest." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/376162/original/file-20201221-21-bx6n3o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/376162/original/file-20201221-21-bx6n3o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/376162/original/file-20201221-21-bx6n3o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/376162/original/file-20201221-21-bx6n3o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/376162/original/file-20201221-21-bx6n3o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/376162/original/file-20201221-21-bx6n3o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/376162/original/file-20201221-21-bx6n3o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A man holds a ballot box during a protest in support of Catalonian politicians jailed on charges of sedition and condemning the arrest of Catalonia’s former president, Carles Puigdemont in Germany, during a protest in Barcelona in March 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Santi Palacios)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Close Scottish vote in 2014</h2>
<p>An unexpectedly close Scottish independence vote in 2014, followed by an unequivocal Scottish “no” to Brexit in the 2016 referendum, made divergent views within the U.K. more pressing.</p>
<p>The 2014 “indyref,” as it became known, was conducted under a <a href="https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20130102230945/http:/www.number10.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/Agreement-final-for-signing.pdf">joint Edinburgh-London agreement</a> and used a co-negotiated question intended to settle the matter <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2014/09/19/world/politics-diplomacy-world/cameron-says-scottish-independence-issue-settled-for-a-generation/">for a generation</a>. </p>
<p>Scotland never conceded it needed the agreement, but it was in everyone’s interest to avoid testing the question constitutionally. Still, Scotland made Canadian-style clarity a watchword of its referendum exercise, and when the results turned out <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/events/scotland-decides/results">closer than expected</a>, stakes were raised. </p>
<p>Fifty-five per cent voted against independence but only after an 11th-hour <a href="https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron-ed-miliband-nick-4265992">pledge to extend new powers to Scotland</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Students look at their laptops." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/376172/original/file-20201221-23-d6ohog.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/376172/original/file-20201221-23-d6ohog.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/376172/original/file-20201221-23-d6ohog.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/376172/original/file-20201221-23-d6ohog.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/376172/original/file-20201221-23-d6ohog.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/376172/original/file-20201221-23-d6ohog.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/376172/original/file-20201221-23-d6ohog.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Students at the University of Montréal watch on their laptops as polls close in the Scottish referendum in September 2014.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Graham Hughes</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>That was when EU membership was still a perk of union. Now, independence offers the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-51357050">best chance for Scotland to rejoin the EU</a>. The Scottish government maintains Brexit <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-49105538">makes a new vote necessary</a>. The British government insists <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-54827100">the matter is closed</a>.</p>
<p>If support for independence continues to climb, Scotland’s demand will be hard to refuse without transparently muzzling popular voice. If the Scottish government presses ahead with plans for what London considers an unlawful vote, it could plunge the country into constitutional crisis.</p>
<h2>Lessons from Canada?</h2>
<p>How did Canada avoid the impasse looming in the U.K.? </p>
<p>In many ways it didn’t; the tensions of the 1990s nearly tore the country apart. The Canadian Constitution is no more enlightened than the British when it comes to secession. As the saying goes “<a href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/constitution-is-not-a-sui_b_4073379">the constitution is not a suicide pact</a>,” and specifying terms for its expiry seems perverse. </p>
<p>But while some constitutions, like Spain’s, declare national union “<a href="https://www.boe.es/legislacion/documentos/ConstitucionINGLES.pdf">indissoluble</a>,” Canada’s is silent on the question. Canada largely inherited its constitutional structure from the British, although not entirely, and it crafted an extraordinary formula for reconstitution out of that legacy.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/376317/original/file-20201222-15-pt4yko.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A fire burns under a Oui sign." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/376317/original/file-20201222-15-pt4yko.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/376317/original/file-20201222-15-pt4yko.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=842&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/376317/original/file-20201222-15-pt4yko.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=842&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/376317/original/file-20201222-15-pt4yko.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=842&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/376317/original/file-20201222-15-pt4yko.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1058&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/376317/original/file-20201222-15-pt4yko.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1058&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/376317/original/file-20201222-15-pt4yko.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1058&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Montréal riot police watch a fire burn underneath a Oui sign after the No side won the Québec referendum in October 1995.</span>
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<p>The Supreme Court judgment worked like oil on troubled waters, establishing rights for Québec and Canada alike. But it was the balance of power in the Canadian federation that ultimately proved the real saviour of Canada.</p>
<p>Because there was no stopping a Québec referendum, there was no silencing the independence question. The ruling defused the standoff by insisting an unwilling Québec could not be held hostage to union, and that a democratic federation meant heeding democratic voice. </p>
<p>Québec has declined to use its new right of democratically chosen exit. Simply having it acknowledged has so far proven sufficient. For democratic voice to be heeded though, it must first be heard.</p>
<p>By raising the stakes on independence votes, the judgment that saved the Canadian union may have made it more difficult to reach a solution in regions where national co-operation is needed to poll an electorate. In that case, it’s not the clarity of a referendum that matters — it’s the capacity to hold one at all.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/151975/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Catherine Frost receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Council of Canada</span></em></p>Scotland’s renewed push for independence is not only similar to Québec’s — there are also lessons for Scottish politicians in Canadian law on the concept of separation.Catherine Frost, Professor of Political Science, McMaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1492382020-10-31T19:30:09Z2020-10-31T19:30:09ZSean Connery: ‘Bond, James Bond’, but so much more<p>Coverage of the passing of Sir Sean Connery has inevitably been dominated by his legacy as the screen’s first – and best – James Bond. Connery’s “Bond, James Bond” moment near the beginning of Dr. No (1962) is one of the iconic moments of cinema history and has spawned countless imitations and parodies.</p>
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<p>Perhaps the most persistent myth about Connery, who was 90, is that he was an “unknown” actor who was plucked from obscurity by Bond producers Albert “Cubby” Broccoli and Harry Saltzman, who reportedly cast him <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/sean-connery-obituary-the-life-and-career-of-the-ultimate-james-bond-12119631">against the wishes</a> of author Ian Fleming and distributor United Artists. But this is to ignore the fact that Connery had already established himself as a television actor, drawing critical plaudits for lead roles in a 1957 BBC production of <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1117708/">Requiem for a Heavyweight</a> and in the 1961 TV production of <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0267267/">Anna Karenina</a>, but also appearing in a number of meaty co-starring roles in Hollywood films, including opposite Lana Turner in <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0051364/">Another Time, Another Place</a> (1958). </p>
<p>It was reportedly his appearance in Disney’s fantasy <a href="https://www.irishpost.com/news/darby-ogill-little-people-helped-sean-connery-become-james-bond-165589">Darby O’Gill and the Little People</a> (1959) that drew Connery to the notice of Broccoli’s wife, Dana, while the British crime drama <a href="https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_frightened_city">The Frightened City</a> (1961), in which Connery as an underworld enforcer steals the picture from its nominal star John Gregson, was also evidence of a star in the making.</p>
<p>Nevertheless Connery was inspired casting as James Bond. Connery made the role his own to such an extent that it is now impossible to imagine any of the other actors said to have been considered – including Cary Grant, David Niven, Patrick McGoohan and even Roger Moore – stepping into the shoes of “the gentleman agent with the licence to kill” in 1962.</p>
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<p>In this context an important point to remember about Bond is that Fleming’s character was not an Old Etonian establishment figure: he is even described in Moonraker as being “alien and unEnglish”. Connery’s working-class Scottish roots – he was born and grew up in Edinburgh, where his early jobs had included milkman, bricklayer and coffin-polisher – imbued his Bond with that sense of “otherness”. </p>
<p>To this extent Connery’s Bond has as much in common with the outsider protagonists of the British new wave – Laurence Harvey, Albert Finney, Richard Harris – as the tradition of British screen heroism incarnated by stars of the 1950s such as Richard Todd and Kenneth More. </p>
<p>Connery’s performance in Dr No is edgy and brusque: he really settled into the part in From Russia With Love (1963) and Goldfinger (1964) where he commands the screen with that indefinable quality of star “presence” that means all he has to do to dominate a scene is to be in it.</p>
<h2>Beyond Bond</h2>
<p>Bond brought Connery fame and fortune. He was paid a mere £6,000 for Dr No, four times that amount for From Russia With Love and a then-record US$1.25 million for his first Bond “comeback” in 1971’s Diamonds Are Forever (George Lazenby had taken the role for On Her Majesty’s Secret Service in 1969). </p>
<p>The lucrative remuneration meant that Connery was able to pick and choose his roles outside the Bond pictures. Indeed his non-Bond roles demonstrate just how versatile an actor Connery was. Alfred Hitchcock cast him against type as Tippi Hedren’s conflicted husband in Marnie (1964), and he excelled in two films for Sidney Lumet, as the rebel-with-a-cause in the hard-hitting military prison drama The Hill (1965) and as a vengeful policeman in the much underrated The Offence (1973).</p>
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<p>Connery was particularly good at playing characters older than himself, including the potentate standing up to Teddy Roosevelt in The Wind and the Lion (1975) and an ageing Robin Hood reflecting on his own myth in the beautifully elegiac Robin and Marian (1976). He paired with Michael Caine as soldiers of fortune in 19th-century Afghanistan in The Man Who Would Be King (1975) and was one of the all-star cast of suspects in Sidney Lumet’s lavish adaptation of Murder on the Orient Express (1974).</p>
<p>There was, inevitably, the occasional left-field choice, but even the science-fiction oddity Zardoz (1973) now has something of a cult status. Connery famously said that he <a href="https://www.digitalspy.com/movies/a869479/james-bond-quit-connery-moore-lazenby-brosnan-dalton/">would “never” play Bond</a> again after Diamonds Are Forever: hence the ironic title of his second Bond “comeback” Never Say Never Again (1983), a rival production outside the Eon Production series mounted by independent producer Kevin McClory.</p>
<p>Connery won his only Academy Award, a popular choice as Best Supporting Actor for his “Irish” street-cop in The Untouchables (1987), after which his career enjoyed a second wind as the world’s most bankable sexagenarian film star in a sequence of superior adventure and caper movies including The Hunt for Red October (1990), The Rock (1996) and Entrapment (1999). </p>
<p>By this time Connery’s refusal to disguise his accent had become something of a trademark, whatever the part. When Steven Spielberg cast him as Harrison Ford’s father in Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade (1989), it captured the idea that Connery’s Bond was the symbolic “father” of a later generation screen hero.</p>
<h2>Feet of clay</h2>
<p>Most stars turn out to have feet of clay: Connery was no exception. He attracted controversy for a remark made in an interview with Playboy in 1965 that <a href="https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/columnists/sean-connery-slapping-women-dangerous-opinions-man-time-3021169">legitimised hitting a woman</a> (“An open-handed slap is justified if all other alternatives fail”). His Bond did this on screen in From Russia With Love and Diamonds Are Forever. </p>
<p>He also had a public falling-out with Broccoli, <a href="https://www.mi6-hq.com/sections/articles/history-connery-1984-lawsuit">suing the producer and MGM</a> for alleged non-payment of profit shares in the Bond films. Against this should be set Connery’s charitable work: he used his fee for Diamonds Are Forever to found the Scottish International Education Trust to provide financial assistance for Scots from disadvantaged backgrounds to attend university and college.</p>
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<h2>Proud ‘Scottish peasant’</h2>
<p>Connery, who since the 1970s lived in Spain and the Bahamas as a tax exile, was <a href="https://life.spectator.co.uk/articles/from-fettes-with-love/">proud of his Scottish roots</a>. Ian Fleming warmed to Connery to the extent that he introduced a Scottish heritage for Bond into the later stories. Bond’s “I am a Scottish peasant and I will always feel at home being a Scottish peasant” – from The Man With the Golden Gun – might have been written with Connery in mind, although Bond was actually played by his successor, Roger Moore, in that film. </p>
<p>Unlike Bond, Connery did accept a knighthood, for services to film drama, in 2000. It is widely believed that his <a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/connery-urges-scots-to-vote-for-independence-1.1709869">public support for the Scottish National Party</a> had delayed his knighthood.</p>
<p>Connery’s last screen appearance was as Allan Quatermain in The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen (2003), in which he leads a Victorian superhero team to save the British Empire. He confirmed his retirement when he was presented with the <a href="https://www.afi.com/laa/sir-sean-connery/">American Film Institute’s Lifetime Achievement Award</a> in 2006.</p>
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<p>He died in his sleep at his home in Nassau, and is survived by his <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/sean-connery-wife-micheline-roquebrune-1543763">second wife Micheline</a> and son (by first wife Diane Cilento) Jason Connery.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/149238/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Chapman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The working-class lad from Edinburgh rose to become a screen icon and one of the world’s most instantly recognisable stars.James Chapman, Professor of Film Studies, University of LeicesterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1324032020-08-05T10:56:55Z2020-08-05T10:56:55ZWhat makes a state a state? Why places like Kosovo live in limbo<p>If we look at a map, the world appears neatly organised into a patchwork of states. They are clearly named and have clear borders. Yet, a closer looks reveals a much more complicated picture. Across the globe, groups are in various stages of claiming and gaining independence and recognition. As <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/palestine-google-apple-maps-removal-israel-gaza-strip-a9624251.html">recent controversy</a> surrounding Palestine’s place in Google and Apple navigation tools shows, the map is far from finished. </p>
<p>Take <a href="https://balkaninsight.com/2020/02/17/twelve-years-in-dependence-leave-kosovo-facing-foggy-future/">Kosovo</a>, which declared independence in 2008 having separated from Serbia following a devastating war in the late 1990s and the dissolution of Yugoslavia. More than 20 years after the war – and a decade since the declaration – Kosovo’s statehood continues to divide politicians and the public alike. Recently, Dua Lipa, the famous singer born in London to parents who left Kosovo during the 1990s, sparked controversy when <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53483451">she tweeted</a> a map of “greater Albania” that included Kosovo.</p>
<p>Separating from another sovereign is the default way in which states are born. This is what the independence movement in Scotland seeks to do. It is also how the United States became independent in 1776 and, according to their declaration, “absolved from all Allegiance to the British Crown”. The pacific island of Bougainville last year <a href="https://theconversation.com/bougainville-has-voted-to-become-a-new-country-but-the-journey-to-independence-is-not-yet-over-128236">voted in favour of separation from Papua New Guinea</a> paving the way to what is predicted to be a long road towards independence.</p>
<p>While managing to claim control of a territory and its people from a previous sovereign is important, being internationally recognised as the sovereign of that area is also crucial for functioning like other states. </p>
<p>The value of recognition becomes apparent when we look at the way in which the status of states is often based on their participation in internationally recognised families of states, such as the United Nations. South Sudan, which declared independence in 2011, is seen by many as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2018/jun/24/south-sudan-civil-war-refugees-families-flee-murder-rape-arson-nyal-global-development">the youngest state in the world</a>, because it is the most recent state accepted into the UN. Other declarations of independence since then, such as that of Donetsk and Lugansk in Eastern Ukraine in 2014 or <a href="https://theconversation.com/catalonia-and-kurdistan-find-the-road-to-statehood-filled-with-obstacles-85768">Catalonia in 2017</a> have been ignored internationally and so are not considered to have resulted in new states.</p>
<p>But not everything is black and white. Unlike what many might think, Kosovo’s declaration of independence in 2008 is not recognised by almost half of the UN’s members. Crucially, these countries include China and Russia, which are on the UN Security Council and can effectively veto any membership. And yet, Kosovo is a member of the World Bank, the IMF, UEFA and FIFA. It also made <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37009927">a joyous debut</a> at the Rio Olympics. For years – and in order to boost its statehood credentials – Kosovo has been trying to join the Eurovision song contest, but it is <a href="http://esctoday.com/176579/kosovo-rtk-full-ebu-membership-reportedly-blocked/">blocked by Serbia</a>, which is already a member of the European Broadcasting Union – the organiser of the event.</p>
<p>Kosovo is not the only state that seems in a state of limbo. Palestine is also only an observer to the UN, despite being recognised by the majority of the members, as well as being part of other international organisations such as the Arab League. Taiwan is not fully recognised, despite being one of the world’s leading economies. This lack of recognition often creates important problems. For example, the fact that Taiwan is not a member of the World Health Organisation because of its lack of recognition meant that the island was not able share with others potentially valuable knowledge at the early stages of the pandemic.</p>
<p>Kosovo has also had to face a recent trend of states <a href="https://www.b92.net/eng/news/politics.php?yyyy=2018&mm=11&dd=07&nav_id=105462">withdrawing their recognition</a>, following an orchestrated effort by Serbia which still refuses to recognise its former province as an independent state. There was <a href="https://www.euronews.com/2019/09/11/czech-president-stirs-anger-after-asking-if-he-can-withdraw-recognition-of-an-independent">a brief diplomatic crisis when the Czech president</a>, Milos Zeman, suggested that his country might do the same. Serbia has also successfully lobbied against Kosovo’s membership of <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/kosovo-serbia-fights-unesco-membership/27320037.html">UNESCO</a> and <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/enlargement/news/serbia-scores-victory-as-interpol-rejects-kosovo-membership/">Interpol</a>. </p>
<p>This tactic is being used by several states that see independence movements as undermining their sovereignty. China has used its diplomatic clout to convince states to<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/16/china-extends-influence-in-pacific-as-solomon-islands-break-with-taiwan">de-recognise Taiwan</a>. Morocco makes trade deals with other states on the condition they <a href="http://www.sahara.gov.ma/en/zambia-confirms-withdrawal-recognition-called-rasd/">de-recognise the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic in Western Sahara</a>, which Morocco considers as part of its territory.</p>
<p>This trend of de-recognition illustrates very well that what we think of as sovereignty is neither static nor absolute. People in places such as Palestine are halfway to having control of their territories. Some, like Kosovo, have one foot in the international system and one foot out. But, at the same time, independence struggles – such as those in Scotland or Bougainville – or competitions over who has more recognition – like those between Kosovo and Serbia or Taiwan and China – show that sovereignty, a buzzword for politicians, continues to be a prize worth fighting for. It is what defines our world of states and who gets to be a member of it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/132403/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>This article has been prepared as part of wider research and advocacy efforts supported by the Kosovo Foundation for Open Society in the context of the project ‘Building knowledge about Kosovo’.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Agon Demjaha does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Kosovo, Taiwan, Palestine, Catalonia and Bougainville are all seeking independence, with varying levels of success.George Kyris, Lecturer in International and European Politics, University of BirminghamAgon Demjaha, Associate Professor of Political Sciences and International Relations, State University of TetovaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1317762020-02-27T18:57:30Z2020-02-27T18:57:30ZMany Scots want independence from the United Kingdom. How might that play out in a post-Brexit world?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316975/original/file-20200224-24690-jjk8ur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/EPA/Robert Perry</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Of the many issues thrown up by Brexit, one of the most pressing is the territorial integrity of the United Kingdom. Brexit was in large measure a revolt by a certain section of English and Welsh opinion against transnational elites, immigration and imagined loss of identity. Scotland and Northern Ireland <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/politics/eu_referendum/results">voted to remain</a>.</p>
<p>The Brexit vote reinforced the sense that the “interests of the UK” is a proxy for the interests of numerically larger England over other parts of the union. Surely Scotland, with its strong sense of national identity and separateness, would seek to challenge the union and return to the warm embrace of the European Union at the earliest opportunity? </p>
<p>This sentiment was further reinforced by the recent success in elections of the pro-EU Scottish National Party (SNP) led by Nicola Sturgeon. The SNP <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50766014">demolished the opposition in the 2019 election</a>, winning 48 out of 59 possible seats.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-brexit-mess-could-lead-to-a-break-up-of-a-no-longer-united-kingdom-107093">The Brexit mess could lead to a break-up of a no longer United Kingdom</a>
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<p>With Boris Johnson sweeping to power as UK prime minister <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2019/dec/13/boris-johnson-achieves-landslide-victory-visual-guide">on the back of a breakthrough</a> in the Midlands and northern England (the “Red Wall”), the scene was set for a showdown over the issue of another referendum on Scottish independence. Some even speculated we would see a Catalonia-style challenge to the authority of Westminster. So what is the state of play, and what is likely to happen?</p>
<p>Recent opinion polls demonstrate growing support for Scottish independence, which has tipped past 50% of the electorate. More Scots now favour independence than at any time in recent history. In <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/events/scotland-decides/results">the 2014 referendum</a>, the vote was 45-55 against independence. </p>
<p>But the fact that support for independence is growing doesn’t mean there is a consensus on when a new vote on the issue should take place. This is proving a key consideration. </p>
<p>While there is some support for a poll as soon as one can be organised, others want to wait for next year’s elections to the Scottish parliament to be held first. Still others feel the timing is not right and that clarification is needed on the nature of the UK’s future relationship with the EU, which has yet to be resolved. </p>
<p>Scottish independence is an urgent matter for some, particularly for nationalists, but is much less so for others, particularly remainers who may otherwise have been lukewarm on independence. This exposes a key faultline in the independence constituency itself: some want independence whatever the cost, the commitment of others to the cause might somewhat rest on the prospect of economic benefits for Scotland, which they may feel EU membership would offer. </p>
<p>All this poses a headache for Sturgeon. Does she seek a showdown with Johnson now, but at the risk of losing that part of her support that doesn’t want an immediate poll? Or does she wait until the middle of 2021, when an election might return yet more SNP members to the Scottish parliament, adding legitimacy for a vote on independence – but at the risk of a loss of momentum? </p>
<p>In addition to the vexed question of timing is the nature of the regime in Westminster. The SNP is a left-of-centre party, drawing support from those who wish to see increased funding for social services, housing and education. </p>
<p>Normally, the SNP would find itself in ideological opposition to a centre-right Conservative administration in Westminster. But part of Johnson’s election strategy was to promise to spend big on infrastructure across the UK. There is even <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-south-scotland-49661019">talk of a bridge</a> between Northern Ireland and Scotland.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/boris-johnson-political-vegemite-becomes-the-uk-prime-minister-let-the-games-begin-119467">Boris Johnson, 'political Vegemite', becomes the UK prime minister. Let the games begin</a>
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<p>With the promise of such largesse, the feeling lingers that Scotland does quite well out of its partnership with Westminster. This is an intentional strategy on Johnson’s behalf. The calculation is that by using the superior resources available to him he can undermine the case for Scottish independence, which without EU support is likely to result in an economic hit to the Scottish economy. Vote for independence, in other words, and Scots will be poorer. </p>
<p>This is, as the Scots might say, a canny strategy. It certainly complicates the equation and has already served to dampen the ardour of those who might otherwise have been committed to an early poll. </p>
<p>What might dampen it further is the early panic in Brussels over who will pay the increased costs for the EU itself due to the departure of the UK. The semblance of technocratic modernity and cohesion the EU likes to paint of itself is coming under strain and so, therefore, is the SNP’s case for making a play to rejoin the EU. </p>
<p>Whether all this is enough to keep the Scots in the UK is a matter of speculation. There are lots of obstacles that might yet derail the Johnson strategy: a bad trade deal with the EU, a balance-of-payments crisis, together with loss of revenue for his grand strategy.</p>
<p>But what has become evident since Johnson took power is that he should not be underestimated. Or, rather, an administration underpinned by the Machiavellian cunning of his chief adviser, Dominic Cummings, should not be underestimated. </p>
<p>Sturgeon will need all her famed powers of persistence to prevent the independence issue being derailed by a combination of exhaustion with elections and referendums, a Johnsonite play for the centre ground of Scottish opinion, and a collapse in confidence in the viability of a life outside the UK.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131776/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simon Tormey does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Independence is a vexed question for the Scottish people, especially with so much yet unknown about how the UK will fare in its divorce from the European Union.Simon Tormey, Professor of Politics, University of BristolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1282432019-12-14T02:25:44Z2019-12-14T02:25:44ZJohnson’s thumping win an electoral lesson in not just having policies, but knowing how to sell them<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306901/original/file-20191213-85428-ng5yfd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">With Johnson's crushing win, Brexit will now happen. But this may also be the start of the break-up of the UK. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/EPA/Vickie Flores</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>So for all the talk of narrowing polls, tactical voting, and possible shocks leading to a hung parliament, Boris Johnson <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/13/boris-johnson-pledges-to-prioritise-nhs-after-election-victory">achieved a crushing victory</a> over Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party in the UK’s general election of 2019. With an 80 or so seat majority in the House of Commons, Johnson can now deliver on his core promise to “get Brexit done”.</p>
<p>He can also shape the broader social and economic environment in tune with the instincts of those around him. They are, almost to a man and a woman, hard-right libertarian figures with a barely concealed contempt for the welfare state, the National Health Service, social benefits and all the other elements that compose the post-war consensus.</p>
<p>One of the tricks Johnson managed to pull off in this election was to paint himself as a saviour of public services, and and a leader untarnished by ten years of Tory austerity policies. The British public is in for a rude awakening when it finds out Johnson’s brand of rambling One Nation populism was a cover for a much tougher and more conservative agenda than many voters realise.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-kind-of-brexit-will-britain-now-get-done-after-boris-johnsons-thumping-election-win-128719">What kind of Brexit will Britain now ‘get done’ after Boris Johnson’s thumping election win?</a>
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<p>So the puzzle that many commentators are trying to figure out is how it is that a right wing figure of this kind could get one over on Corbyn who pitched his entire campaign on the promise to protect the health service and promote public ownership of key sectors such as the railways and the post office?</p>
<p>What became clear as the night unfolded is that former Labour constituencies in the Midlands and the north of the country have been, and still are, in favour of Brexit. Johnson promised to get Brexit done, and Labour did not. For much of the electorate, this was enough of a reason to cross well established political divides and tribal loyalties.</p>
<p>But it’s also clear that many voters didn’t trust Jeremy Corbyn. They saw him as too beholden to sectional interests, too evasive, too metropolitan and too left wing. Johnson, by contrast, came across as a capable if lovably bumbling figure who was able to articulate not only a clear line on Brexit, but also to distance himself from the legacy of destructive Tory policies. In the end it was Corbyn, not Johnson, who proved to be political Vegemite.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/boris-johnson-political-vegemite-becomes-the-uk-prime-minister-let-the-games-begin-119467">Boris Johnson, 'political Vegemite', becomes the UK prime minister. Let the games begin</a>
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<p>This proved a winning formula across England and most of Wales. But elsewhere, the story was rather different. In Scotland, the Nationalists improved their result from 2017, often at the expense of the Liberal Democrats, and indeed the latter’s leader Jo Swinson, who lost her seat to the Scottish National Party (SNP).</p>
<p>This sets up an important byline for 2020 which is the matter of Scottish independence. With Brexit now almost certain to go forward at the end of January 2020, the pressure will immediately mount to allow Scotland to have another independence vote on the back of the SNP’s crushing performance.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306902/original/file-20191213-85371-1vdw6ap.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306902/original/file-20191213-85371-1vdw6ap.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306902/original/file-20191213-85371-1vdw6ap.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306902/original/file-20191213-85371-1vdw6ap.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306902/original/file-20191213-85371-1vdw6ap.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306902/original/file-20191213-85371-1vdw6ap.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306902/original/file-20191213-85371-1vdw6ap.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The Scottish National Party’s strong performance, led by Nicola Sturgeon, will lead to a push for independence vote.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/EPA/Robert Perry</span></span>
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<p>While the picture is less clear in Northern Ireland, the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50736909">overall trend</a> was towards increased support for the nationalist parties at the expense in particular of the Democratic Unionist Party, which similarly lost its parliamentary leader Nigel Dodds.</p>
<p>While the dynamics in Northern Ireland are quite different from those of Scotland, the realisation that Brexit will now take place is bound to provoke a sustained debate on the need for a border poll on the future of Northern Ireland itself. This may take some years to resolve, but the line of travel is becoming clearer, and it points towards the reunification of Ireland. Johnson’s triumph may thus herald the break-up of the UK – to be greeted, it seems, by English indifference.</p>
<p>But the clearest takeaway remains the state of progressive politics in the UK. The centrist Liberal Democrat party had a very bad election. The Green party managed to increase its share of the vote but only managed to win one seat. The Labour Party was sent packing in many of its traditional working class heartlands in the North.</p>
<p>As long as progressive and left politics is spread amongst these various parties, it seems unlikely that we can expect a recovery any time soon, certainly as far as electoral politics is concerned. The Labour Party will now <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/13/labour-party-leader-runners-riders-jeremy-corbyn-jess-phillips/">hunker down to decide</a> whether it is going to row back towards the centre under a leader such as Kier Starmer, or whether it is going to maintain the more radical position associated with Corbyn, McDonnell and the Momentum faction that now dominates many local constituency parties.</p>
<p>With the victory of Johnson demonstrating the importance of a charismatic and effective leader, attention will turn to the next generation of Labour politicians. It is difficult at this juncture to be confident there is a serious challenger waiting in the wings of the current Labour Party who can provide an effective counterpoint to the ebullient Johnson. But it must. More of the same will not turn the tide.</p>
<p>The right does not have a monopoly on effective communicators and charismatic leaders. But what it does have is a keener appreciation of the dynamics of the moment: that policies do not sell themselves; they have to be sold by someone who has an ability to connect, to articulate a position that voters feel comfortable with, and which chimes with their own experience, values, hopes and fears.</p>
<p>Some call this populism. But the reality is simpler: this is - and always has been – the formula for winning elections. It’s a formula the left would do well to memorise.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/128243/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simon Tormey does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Johnson is back at No 10- but British voters may be in for a rude shock when they realise his is a much tougher and more conservative agenda than many believe.Simon Tormey, Professor of Politics, University of BristolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1278832019-11-27T16:14:13Z2019-11-27T16:14:13ZWhy Nicola Sturgeon is pushing so hard for indyref2 now<p>Five years on from the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/events/scotland-decides/results">independence referendum</a>, the constitutional question around Scotland is once again a major talking point in the UK election. This is mainly due to the Scottish National Party (SNP), which is standing with the explicit intention of pushing for a second independence referendum to be held next year. </p>
<p>In the words of Scotland’s first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, in the party’s <a href="https://www.snp.org/general-election-2019/">2019 manifesto</a>:</p>
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<p>At this election there is a choice for Scotland. A chaotic, Brexit-obsessed Westminster could decide our future for us. Or we can demand our right as a country to decide our own future. It’s time to put Scotland’s future in Scotland’s hands. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>One question begging to be asked is why the SNP is putting demands for an indyref2 at the centre of its campaign this time around. When the party lost 21 out of 56 seats in the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-40246330">2017 UK election</a>, it was <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-40216748">partly blamed</a> on its support for independence: the SNP’s <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-scotland-32635871">great 2015 result</a> was achieved by bringing the nation together, accepting that independence was probably off the table for a generation after it lost the 2014 referendum. </p>
<p>But following the UK’s vote to Brexit in the EU referendum of 2016, the SNP said there had been a material change of circumstances that would justify a new independence poll. When it came to the 2017 election, the proportion of SNP voters who were against independence <a href="https://www.gov.scot/publications/scottish-social-attitudes-attitudes-government-economy-public-services-2017/pages/7/">fell to</a> 17%, compared to 25% in 2015 – meaning many anti-indyref voters had abandoned the party. So why, therefore, push so hard for another indyref now? </p>
<h2>Indy charts</h2>
<p>The first minister’s decision to call for an independence referendum next year comes at a time when support for independence is <a href="http://whatscotlandthinks.org/topics/the-scottish-independence-referendum">up in the polls</a> and large marches and rallies are being organised in Scotland by the pro-independence group <a href="https://www.facebook.com/AllUnderOneBanner/">All Under One Banner</a>. </p>
<p>Independence may have damaged the SNP in 2017 but it has actually been a <a href="https://theconversation.com/snps-manifesto-for-scotland-is-deliberately-cautious-and-rightly-so-78630">little more lukewarm</a> on the issue than this time around. There was nothing in the <a href="https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/thesnp/pages/9544/attachments/original/1496320559/Manifesto_06_01_17.pdf?1496320559">2017 manifesto</a> to say that a vote for the party was a vote for another referendum. It instead said that winning a majority of seats would contribute to a mandate for indyref2 “when the time is right”. </p>
<p>The SNP went on to win a majority of seats, but its vote share <a href="https://www.gov.scot/publications/scottish-social-attitudes-attitudes-government-economy-public-services-2017/pages/7/">plummeted</a> also among pro-independence voters: down to 70%, compared to 85% in 2015. The toned-down indyref policy might help explain, with some voters <a href="https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17967175.nicola-sturgeon-blames-snp-election-loss-turnout/">apparently choosing</a> to stay at home. In the case of the minority of supporters that are <a href="https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14950013.36-of-snp-and-labour-supporters-backed-brexit-finds-survey/">pro-Brexit</a>, it might have given them another reason not to vote SNP. The bold decision to push harder for independence now should keep the party relatively united this time around. </p>
<p>The reason why support for independence has risen is perhaps that a section of Remain voters have switched sides: the SNP’s Remain credentials help the party to distance its brand of civic and cosmopolitan nationalism from the anti-EU, anti-immigrant nationalism that we see in a number of countries. As a result, the pro-independence vote which was already largely pro-EU is now even more solidly in favour of Scotland staying in the EU. This could yet attract additional Labour voters who back independence and feel disillusioned with that party’s mixed messages around the EU. </p>
<p><strong>Indyref voting intentions 2017-19</strong></p>
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-would-you-vote-in-the-in-a-scottish-independence-referendum-if-held-now-ask#line">What Scotland Thinks</a></span>
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<p>Labour won six seats in Scotland in 2017, several of them from the SNP by just handfuls of votes – including Glasgow North East, Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath as well as Rutherglen and Hamilton West. The SNP has a decent chance of winning seats like these and of taking share from Labour elsewhere either to win Tory marginals such as Stirling or to defend SNP marginals such as Perth and North Perthshire as well as North East Fife. </p>
<p>At the same time, the SNP has to be careful with competition for its pro-independence vote. The Scottish Greens are standing in many more seats than last time, up from four to 22 and, while they are unlikely to win any seats, in very tight races they could cost the SNP crucial victories. This is another reason for sounding strong on a second referendum on independence. </p>
<p>On the other side of the balance sheet, perhaps, are the Conservatives. The Conservative Party has been heavily criticising the prospect of a Labour minority government reliant on SNP support, perhaps in exchange for a second independence referendum. The Conservative Party leader Boris Johnson <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9kEB5pqWpJw">claimed</a> in his head-to-head ITV debate with Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn that the Union between Scotland and England was more important to him than Brexit. </p>
<p>The SNP lost 12 seats to the Conservatives in 2017. The hope will be that Brexit has become unpopular enough to push some independence-minded Leave voters back towards the SNP to reduce this haul. On the other hand, tactical voting by unionists could make it difficult to win back those seats – particularly in places such as the North East, where Brexit support is very strong. The latest polling <a href="https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/columnists/murdo-fraser-boris-johnson-may-not-be-helping-scottish-tories-but-nicola-sturgeon-is-1-5052416">favours</a> the latter scenario, possibly assisted by voters repelled by the SNP’s strong indyref message. </p>
<h2>The aftermath</h2>
<p>What does a victory on the morning after the election look like for the SNP? As always, there is the challenge of managing expectations. Certainly, an increase in seats is expected. Under first past the post, the SNP is so far ahead that not winning more seats would be a blow. Even if the Conservatives do relatively well and hold most of their Scottish seats, it would be viewed perhaps as a disappointment for the SNP. </p>
<p>On the other hand, a very good result for the party – beating the 35 seats won in 2017 – would put Westminster under pressure to decide whether to allow or deny a second independence referendum after the next Scottish parliamentary elections in 2021. That would be quite different, say, to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-do-we-explain-the-return-of-the-bloc-quebecois-125808">recent revival</a> of Bloc Quebecois in Canada, which has been based on championing Quebec values rather than any independence strategy. </p>
<p>In other words, this UK election is supposed to act as a springboard for the Scottish independence movement. Placing the referendum at the heart of the campaign certainly has its risks for the SNP. But there is certainly a decent case that it will give the party the liftoff towards a new relationship with both the EU and the rest of the UK. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300097/original/file-20191104-88382-xr3pj3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300097/original/file-20191104-88382-xr3pj3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300097/original/file-20191104-88382-xr3pj3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300097/original/file-20191104-88382-xr3pj3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300097/original/file-20191104-88382-xr3pj3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300097/original/file-20191104-88382-xr3pj3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300097/original/file-20191104-88382-xr3pj3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/the-daily-newsletter-2?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKGE2019&utm_content=GEBannerC">Click here to subscribe to our newsletter if you believe this election should be all about the facts.</a></em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127883/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>William McDougall does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>At first glance it seems like a strange strategy to go big on another independence referendum when half of Scots would vote No.William McDougall, Lecturer in Politics, Glasgow Caledonian UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1227082019-08-30T14:27:10Z2019-08-30T14:27:10ZRuth Davidson resignation: where does it leave Scottish Conservatives – and the Union?<p>Few could have foreseen that a young, gay, working-class woman would transform the fortunes of the Conservative party in Scotland when she became leader eight years ago. But that’s exactly what Ruth Davidson did. Almost singlehandedly, she is responsible for her party’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/aug/29/davidsons-departure-threatens-scottish-tories-and-the-union">political revival</a> in Scotland, where crucially, it has eclipsed Labour as the main opposition party.</p>
<p>But following her resignation, citing a combination of personal and political reasons, the Scottish party may be wondering if it can hold on to 13 MPs at Westminster and remain in second place in Scotland.</p>
<p>Davidson’s decision to quit is a serious blow to the Conservatives. There is no obvious big personality replacement. If you search for Ruth Davidson on the <a href="https://yougov.co.uk/">YouGov</a> polling site, you find that 64% of people have heard of her, and she is the <a href="https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Ruth_Davidson">fourth most popular Conservative politician</a> at UK level.</p>
<p>If you search on YouGov for possible leadership contenders such as Davidson’s deputy (and now acting leader) <a href="https://www.parliament.scot/msps/currentmsps/jackson-carlaw-msp.aspx">Jackson Carlaw</a> MSP, or <a href="https://www.parliament.scot/msps/currentmsps/adam-tomkins-msp.aspx">Adam Tomkins</a> MSP, the level of recognition is just not there. </p>
<p>Davidson had “atypical” Conservative traits. She was a new and different kind of Conservative leader: young (32 when she took on the role); female; gay; and a former journalist. As well as being <a href="https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Ruth_Davidson">described</a> on YouGov as “confident, assured, admirable and commanding”, she was a relaxed, easygoing communicator who could reach the parts of the electorate that other Tories could not. </p>
<h2>Difficult questions</h2>
<p>While Davidson had hoped to <a href="https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17648029.ruth-davidson-eyes-first-minister-role-by-2022/">be first minister</a> by 2021, the political and socio-economic shake-down from Brexit under Boris Johnson is likely to lead to a haemorrhaging of support for the Scottish Conservatives. His strategy seems to be to win the Labour Leave heartlands, which might be good news for the Conservatives in England, but looks like being bad news in Scotland.</p>
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<p><em><strong>Read more: <a href="https://theconversation.com/boris-johnson-suspends-parliament-what-does-it-mean-for-brexit-and-why-are-mps-so-angry-122574">Boris Johnson suspends parliament: what does it mean for Brexit and why are MPs so angry?</a></strong></em> </p>
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<p>Indeed, the most promising future for Scottish Conservatives might actually be in an independent Scotland, free from the members of their party pursuing a very different narrative at Westminster.</p>
<p>In the meantime, a relatively unknown Conservative leader might have to think the unthinkable at the next UK General Election. If three unionist parties are competing against one independence party (SNP) for winnable seats at Westminster using <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/scottish-independence/scottish-independence-what-is-devo-max-9733931.html">first-past-the-post</a>, they might need to make deals and run where they stand most chance of challenging the SNP, and standing down where they will split the union vote.</p>
<p>Undoubtedly Ruth Davidson has left behind very big boots to fill. If Conservative popularity tanks in Scotland the way Labour’s did, we might see a quick succession of leaders. Of course it puts Nicola Sturgeon in an even more commanding position than ever before. But she has now had five years as leader, and leaders are lucky if they can hold on for as long as Davidson has managed – particularly in these unprecedented times of political churn.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/122708/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Shephard has previously received funding from the ESRC, the British Academy, AQMeN, and WhatsApp. </span></em></p>Charismatic Ruth Davidson broke the mould of the traditional Tory MP to reach parts of the electorate others couldn’t. So how do the Scottish Conservatives fill the vacuum she leaves?Mark Shephard, Senior Lecturer, Politics, University of Strathclyde Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1197932019-07-03T15:14:01Z2019-07-03T15:14:01ZExplainer: what Scotland’s new citizen assemblies could mean for democracy<p>Polarisation. Paralysis. Politicians at each other’s throats. The crisis engulfing Westminster for the past year has not given the best impression of British parliamentary democracy at work. Theresa May’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/29/mps-reject-theresa-mays-brexit-deal-third-time">failure</a> to get her Brexit deal through after three attempts resulted in her losing her job.</p>
<p>Surely Britain can do better? Even members of the public chosen at random might be more effective than the current crop of politicians. Well, in Scotland that theory is going to be put to the test – at least in part. The prospect of a <a href="https://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/commons-select/business-energy-industrial-strategy/news-parliament-2017/climate-change-and-net-zero-chairs-comments-17-19/">similar process happening at Westminster</a> also seems likely on the issue of climate change – although the details are vague. </p>
<p>In April 2019 the Scottish government <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-48759720">announced</a> its plan to launch a citizens’ assembly in the autumn. It will randomly select 120 members of the public who will reflect Scottish society in terms of age, gender and ethnic background.</p>
<p>Scotland has had its own constitutional debate since the 2014 referendum, when a majority voted against independence. Revealing a similar polarisation to Brexit with a divide of 55-45%, this has not altered significantly in the subsequent five years, with opinion polls showing a country <a href="https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/04/27/scottish-independence-yes-vote-climbs-49">split down the middle</a>. </p>
<p>Despite this, the Scottish government has not exhibited the same level of dysfunction as its UK counterpart in London. Even though both are <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2016-scotland-36205187">minority</a> governments, Holyrood has managed to get legislation through by working with other parties – including those which oppose its position on independence. But what can the fairly radical idea of a randomly selected citizens’ assembly add to the constitutional situation in Scotland? </p>
<p><a href="https://www.parliament.scot/msps/currentmsps/michael-russell-msp.aspx">Mike Russell</a>, Scotland’s minister for constitutional relations, said that one of the aims was to bring people together to learn from each other “including those with whom we might otherwise profoundly disagree”. It’s a big claim – so what is its purpose?</p>
<p>The initial three (very broad) questions the assembly has been asked are simple: What kind of a country do you want Scotland to be? How can Scottish people overcome challenges (including Brexit) and, what further work is needed?</p>
<p>The participants will meet over several weekends to consider these questions and hear evidence from experts, who they will be able to cross-examine. Ultimately the assembly will come up with proposals to present to the Scottish parliament.</p>
<p>Looking from the outside, one might ask if this is not the role of politicians and established democratic institutions. These proposed questions seem to go to the heart of the issues surrounding Brexit and independence. Yet Russell stated this is now an “established way for mature democracies” to deal with difficult questions.</p>
<h2>The Irish example</h2>
<p>Russell has drawn comparisons with the situation in Ireland. Last year the Irish people voted in huge numbers to repeal Article 8 of their constitution and <a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/abortion-referendum/the-irish-times-view-on-the-referendum-this-belongs-to-the-women-of-ireland-1.3510518">legalise abortion</a> – this followed proposals from their citizens’ assembly convened in 2016. Scotland’s first minister Nicola Sturgeon saw this as one of the inspirations for introducing the idea in Scotland.</p>
<p>Yet there have been other citizens’ assemblies internationally where success is debatable. Two Canadian provinces (British Colombia and Ontario) <a href="https://www.fairvote.ca/nationalcitizensassembly/">convened assemblies</a> in the 2000s to look at the specific issue of electoral reform. The model that the people put forward was defeated by referendum. In 2006 <a href="https://www.bristol.ac.uk/law/dbe/blog/2017/15/">the Netherlands asked citizens</a> around the country what they wanted their cities to be in the coming decade, but the proposals were rejected by the government.</p>
<p>The assembly in Ireland grew from a <a href="https://www.citizensassembly.ie/en/Resource-Area/Convention-on-the-Constitution/">Constitutional Convention</a> set up in 2012 to look at the written Irish constitution. This was made up of of both elected politicians and members of the public. At that stage Ireland was still reeling from the financial crisis of 2008, and there was a widely held belief that the constitution was out of step with modern times and needed updating. With this structure the assembly could address specific questions – such as legalising same-sex marriage (also approved by referendum in 2015).</p>
<h2>People v the politicians</h2>
<p>The problem is that Scotland and the UK do not have a written constitution. There is no specific framework for a Scottish citizens’ assembly to apply to the questions they are being asked – which are much broader and more vague than in Ireland.</p>
<p>Also, the relationship between the established Scottish parliament and the new citizens’ assembly seems, at the moment, ill-defined. A disconnect between the two could be seen at best as frustrating and at worst a situation of dual power between “the people” and the politicians. </p>
<p>Such a scenario <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/iceland-votes-for-citizen-assembly-to-draft-new-constitution/a-6274235">occurred in Iceland</a> after the disaster of the financial collapse in 2008 prompted a new constitution that was created by ordinary citizens. This radical document was seen as a model for participatory democracy everywhere. It was endorsed by a referendum yet rejected by politicians in 2012 and has still not been introduced. </p>
<h2>Constitutional stalemate?</h2>
<p>The SNP government clearly does not want such a stalemate to occur in Scotland – but, in the absence of a legislative framework, it is unclear what the precise relationship will be between elected Scottish politicians and this selected assembly.</p>
<p>Although the Scottish government is keen to stress the involvement of all political parties, the Conservative and Lib Dems have already said they will not participate – the former calling it a “<a href="https://www.holyrood.com/articles/news/conservatives-label-citizens%E2%80%99-assembly-%E2%80%98-nationalist-stunt%E2%80%99">nationalist stunt</a>” tied to the government’s desire for a second referendum. Another objection is that the assembly’s remit is not limited to specific issues, like in Ireland.</p>
<p>One of the conveners of the assembly is to be former Labour MEP <a href="http://www.martinmep.com/biography">David Martin</a>, who has stressed its independence from the Scottish government and the transparency of its procedures. But Martin thinks it was a “<a href="https://stv.tv/news/scotland/1438843-fm-made-mistake-over-citizens-assembly-announcement-says-co-convener/">mistake</a>” to launch it at the same time as discussing a second independence referendum. Martin maintains “binary questions are destroying politics” and the assembly should not put forward one single position on independence or Brexit.</p>
<p>In less turbulent times, this kind of participatory democracy in any society would be a challenge. In the current polarised tumult of British politics it will be intriguing to see how the Scottish citizens’ assembly develops.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/119793/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nick McKerrell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It worked in Ireland – now Nicola Sturgeon is asking selected citizens to examine the big constitutional issues facing the country.Nick McKerrell, Lecturer in Law, Glasgow Caledonian UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1127902019-03-07T11:19:53Z2019-03-07T11:19:53ZBBC Scotland’s new channel: a fresh start that reflects a devolved UK<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/262430/original/file-20190306-100781-4bcez8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=227%2C0%2C5661%2C2163&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/view-river-clyde-sunrise-glasgow-scotland-788509798">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>We live in an ever-expanding TV universe with new channels appearing regularly. Still, it might seem surprising that the BBC, with all its <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-45810822">financial problems</a>, has launched with much fanfare a <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/articles/1hx87NrNp3Y45hF2NyQDhFs/welcome-to-your-brand-new-television-channel-bbc-scotland">new digital channel</a> in Scotland. So, given the tight budgets and a relatively small populace, why Scotland, why now – and is it any good?</p>
<p>In 1999, Scotland and Wales joined the (<a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/northern-ireland-talks-latest-updates-stormont-power-sharing-deal-what-deal-look-sinn-fein-dup-deal-a8711691.html">currently suspended</a>) Stormont government in Northern Ireland to create two more devolved nations within the UK. These three bodies have different financial and legislative responsibilities (<a href="https://www.gov.uk/guidance/devolution-of-powers-to-scotland-wales-and-northern-ireland">devolved matters</a>) while significant powers – reserved matters – remain at Westminster, in areas such as defence, trade, immigration, the constitution and broadcasting.</p>
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<h2>The lie of the land</h2>
<p>But the principal public service broadcasters do not really reflect this current UK constitutional set up. <a href="https://www.itv.com/">ITV</a> has long since abandoned a regional-based model in favour of a centralised one, and even <a href="https://www.stv.tv/info/about">Scottish Television</a> (STV) is frequently <a href="https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/under-fire-stv-chief-rules-out-sell-off-to-itv-1-4750865">rumoured</a> to be about to surrender its autonomy.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.channel4.com/">Channel 4</a>, despite obligations to source a significant proportion of its output beyond the south-east of England, was always firmly rooted in the London media landscape. However, its recent <a href="https://www.campaignlive.co.uk/article/channel-4-announces-leeds-will-home-new-hq/1497708">announcement</a> that its new HQ will be in Leeds with two new regional creative hubs in Bristol and Glasgow, indicate the channel’s commitment to fulfilling its <a href="https://www.channel4.com/corporate/about-4/4-all-uk">4 All the UK</a> strategy. But the case of the BBC is more complicated.</p>
<p>The establishment of <a href="https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/history-of-s4c-2117714">S4C in Wales in 1982</a> – initially a non-BBC service, but one which the Corporation is now obliged to finance – was followed in 2008 by the creation of <a href="https://www.bbc.com/alba">BBC Alba</a>, a Gaelic language service similar in scope and ambition, if not so well funded. And now there is a new BBC Scotland channel. </p>
<p>Its origins are worth exploring. In 1998 BBC Scotland planned to use the 6-7pm slot on BBC1 for an opt-out news programme covering Scottish, UK and international news along the lines of its successful radio programme <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0074hf7">Good Morning Scotland</a>, which goes out at the same time as <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b006qj9z">Radio 4’s Today</a> programme.</p>
<p>The plan was enthusiastically supported north of the border but was derailed by the then director-general John Birt with the support of leading Labour politicians, ostensibly on the grounds that the BBC would be <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/232121.stm">getting ahead of constitutional change</a>. Some of those involved seemed to believe such a programme would precipitate Scottish independence, eccentric as that view might seem.</p>
<p>When the first SNP government was elected at Holyrood it set up a broadcasting commission which in 2008 <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/08_09_08_broacasting.pdf">recommended</a> the establishment of a new non-BBC channel budgeted at between £50m and £75m per year. All the political parties supported the idea but the Scottish parliament offered no money towards the cost and the proposal withered on the vine. </p>
<p>Dissatisfaction with the status quo continued, and much ire was directed at the BBC on the grounds that it spent far less of the licence fee raised north of the border in Scotland than it should. In response, the current director-general, Tony Hall, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-39042666">announced</a> in 2017 that the Corporation would launch a new channel with an annual budget of £32m:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We know that viewers in Scotland love BBC television, but we also know that they want us to better reflect their lives and better reflect modern Scotland… The best way of achieving that is a dedicated channel for Scotland. It’s a channel that will be bold, creative and ambitious, with a brand-new Scotland-edited international news programme at its heart.</p>
</blockquote>
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<h2>So how is it doing?</h2>
<p>The new channel has been <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/feb/22/bbc-to-launch-scottish-tv-channel-with-hour-long-news-programme">generally welcomed</a> and not merely by independent production companies ever hungry for work. But there has been continuing concern about resources. As to the likely audience size, both <a href="https://www.ofcom.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0016/115270/BBC-scotland-statement.pdf,">Ofcom</a> (the telecoms regulator) and BBC Scotland itself have indicated that a share of around 2% of the Scottish TV audience would be acceptable. Even allowing for the range of channels and online subscription services now available, and mindful of young people’s <a href="https://www.ofcom.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0020/102755/adults-media-use-attitudes-2017.pdf*">reluctance</a> to watch television in the same way their parents did, this seems a very modest ambition.</p>
<p>So what is the verdict on the first week? It’s not a surprise to see what might be called softer, (and cheaper) documentaries – an Asian wedding, Scottish punk rock and aspiring young dancers. However, the impressive old-school documentary <a href="https://naepasaran.com/">Nae Pasaran</a>, about the refusal of Scots Rolls Royce workers to service jet engines for the Chilean Pinochet dictatorship in 1974, shone on opening night.</p>
<p>Some of this kind of programming, interesting as it is, may well be over extended in order to fill the schedule and meet the Ofcom quota of 75% “original material” in peak time. There was also some (tried and tested) comedy, but there will not be much drama – the costliest form of television – and reshowing a much-loved classic such as John Byrne’s <a href="https://www.dramaonlinelibrary.com/plays/tutti-frutti-iid-19925">Tutti Frutti</a>, may only serve to emphasise that fact.</p>
<p>The nightly news programme, The Nine, has played to <a href="https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/new-bbc-scotland-channel-must-beware-parochialism-john-mclellan-1-4882043">mixed reviews</a> and does have the look and feel of a breakfast show. However after a first edition which scarcely mentioned the world beyond Scotland, things have improved, with more foreign reports from recently hired journalists and existing BBC staffers. But there hasn’t been too much UK news – Brexit apart – never mind news from the other constituent parts of the UK, including England. </p>
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<p>But 9pm is a difficult slot, given the offerings from the other main channels and although that could be an advantage with breaking stories, 10pm is probably the better slot – and perhaps that is where the programme may end up, despite the obvious competition. But an hour is a very long stretch to fill – much better to have a shorter 30-minute bulletin, followed by a current affairs magazine. </p>
<p>There are plenty of BBC critics who have been <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11095752/Scottish-independence-Nationalists-demand-Nick-Robinson-sacking-in-vocal-anti-BBC-protest.html">hostile</a> to the Corporation ever since the 2014 independence referendum, in which, they believed, the BBC’s news coverage was biased against home rule. Such people are deeply unsympathetic to the new channel. For many others however, it is a worthwhile development, if only stage one of what may be a long but necessary journey.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/112790/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Hutchison does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Its first new channel since 2003, does this Scottish offering reflect a genuine BBC commitment to 21st century ‘nations and regions’?David Hutchison, Honorary Professor in Media Policy, Glasgow Caledonian UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1106322019-01-30T09:41:20Z2019-01-30T09:41:20ZPressure on Nicola Sturgeon is intense, but there’s still room to be positive about second Scottish indyref<p>There have been two dramatic stories in Scottish politics in recent days. One has seen Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-46961172">hold talks</a> with her UK counterpart Theresa May over the ongoing Brexit crisis; and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/jan/27/nicola-sturgeon-alex-salmond-charges-wont-affect-scottish-independence-drive">confirming</a> she will clarify plans for a second Scottish independence referendum in the coming weeks. The other involved the shock of seeing Sturgeon’s predecessor Alex Salmond appear in court <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-47001028">charged</a> with attempted rape and sexual assault. </p>
<p>What do these mean for the SNP and a second independence referendum? Salmond is the party’s most prominent figure of the last 30 years, who led the Scottish government for seven years and brought about the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/events/scotland-decides/results">independence referendum</a> of 2014. There’s little that can be said about the specifics of this live legal case, but the fact any case has been brought can only be damaging to the SNP and the independence effort – contrary to Sturgeon’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/jan/27/nicola-sturgeon-alex-salmond-charges-wont-affect-scottish-independence-drive">claims</a> that it would make no difference. There are also risks from the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-46863074">numerous other inquiries</a> into alleged procedural misconduct over the Scottish government’s investigation of the Salmond allegations, including one into Sturgeon herself. </p>
<p>With the Brexit crisis there are both opportunities and threats – all tied to the independence question. It’s <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1111/1467-9248.12016">worth remembering</a> at the outset that much SNP electoral success from 2007-14 was not down to its backing independence but its attractiveness as a party of government and its ability to implement policy and govern effectively. </p>
<p>SNP popularity spiked following the independence referendum, in which Yes support rose from roughly a third to 45% of the electorate. To some extent, increased independence support gave the party a second electoral wind in the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results">UK election</a> of 2015 and the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2016/scotland/results">Scottish election</a> of 2016. At the same time, you have to acknowledge the SNP’s durability and success in winning successive elections in government during very economically hard times. </p>
<h2>The 2017 misstep</h2>
<p>But Scotland <a href="https://www.snp.org/the-council-tax-freeze-explained/">is now</a> 11 years into austerity, and the party has governed the whole time. The SNP minority government currently faces problems over <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-45969866">the NHS</a>, <a href="https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/greens-will-not-back-snp-budget-over-council-funds-1-4863474">local government</a>, the <a href="https://www.scotsman.com/news/transport/abellio-warned-it-could-be-stripped-of-scotrail-contract-1-4853331">Scotrail franchise</a>, Scottish levels of <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/12/19/scottish-workers-can-take-simple-steps-avoid-higher-snp-income/">taxation</a>, <a href="https://www.scotsman.com/news/nicola-sturgeon-responds-to-labour-criticism-of-snp-education-record-1-4847030">education</a> policy and a <a href="https://www.tes.com/news/teacher-pay-strikes-could-target-key-snp-figures">threatened strike</a> by schoolteachers. Despite these, opinion poll <a href="http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-would-you-use-your-constituency-vote-in-a-scottish-parliament-election-aske#line">support</a> for the party remains strong if not at <a href="http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-would-you-use-your-constituency-vote-in-a-scottish-parliament-election#line">the levels</a> of previous years.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255952/original/file-20190128-39344-1nzpro0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255952/original/file-20190128-39344-1nzpro0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255952/original/file-20190128-39344-1nzpro0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255952/original/file-20190128-39344-1nzpro0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255952/original/file-20190128-39344-1nzpro0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255952/original/file-20190128-39344-1nzpro0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255952/original/file-20190128-39344-1nzpro0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255952/original/file-20190128-39344-1nzpro0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>Keeping that going is challenging, however, and the party has definitely made political missteps over independence. Look back to the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/eu_referendum/results">Brexit referendum</a> of June 2016 and you see the independence referendum that might have been, as 62% of Scots backed Remain against a UK Leave of 52%. Seeing the potential to convert this into Yes support north of 60%, the SNP <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/02/nicola-sturgeon-snp-listening-exercise-europe-brexit-scottish-independence">launched</a> a short-lived precursor campaign to a second independence referendum. </p>
<p>It created a national survey consultation exercise on Brexit, independence, policy and identity, which <a href="https://mercinon.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/national-survey-claimed-final-response.png">yielded</a> about 2m responses – creating the dataset for a future referendum. The party also very publicly launched the fundraising website ScotRef, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-40260769">raising about</a> half of its £1m target. </p>
<p>The referendum didn’t get off the ground, of course. <a href="https://theconversation.com/nicola-sturgeon-is-playing-great-politics-with-indyref2-but-victory-still-long-way-off-74784">Attempts</a> to get permission from the UK government were <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39291860/theresa-may-now-is-not-the-time-for-scotland-independence-vote">rebuffed</a> by May and then swept side by the UK <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-40192707">election result</a> in 2017. The SNP lost a third of its seats, again for <a href="https://www.opendemocracy.net/uk/laurie-macfarlane/five-reasons-why-snp-lost-seats-in-general-election">complex reasons</a>: among other factors, the party’s strong backing for EU Remain had alienated some who favoured Brexit, while No supporters who had previously backed the party <a href="https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15338579.indyref2-a-significant-motivator-against-snp-in-21-seat-loss-john-swinney/">deserted it</a> over the push for a second independence referendum. Salmond was among the SNP members who lost his seat. </p>
<p>The topic of another independence referendum has since been very difficult for Sturgeon and her party. In parallel to the unionist problem, there is internal pressure from party members and supporters and the wider Yes movement for another vote. This prompted <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-45770801">substantial</a> public <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-44005360">demonstrations</a> by independence supporters in 2018. </p>
<p>The party has three choices: demand another referendum, wait and see or hold one without London’s permission. On the latter option, there is regular talk among campaigners about doing a Catalan-style DIY referendum. The legal process would be murky, however, and opponents would probably boycott the poll and damage the legitimacy of the result. This would raise problems for international recognition and EU membership, to say the least. </p>
<p>Waiting also has its problems, though, as the SNP’s 2016 “<a href="https://www.snp.org/policies/pb-does-the-snp-have-a-mandate-for-a-referendum-on-scotland-s-future/">mandate</a>” for <a href="https://www.pressreader.com/uk/the-herald/20181015/281702615679968">another</a> referendum slides and the party and Yes movement lose momentum over independence. Seeking a new mandate in the next Scottish parliamentary election of 2021, when the SNP may lose more electoral support, has a serious downside too. </p>
<h2>The case for being positive</h2>
<p>That leaves “demand” to consider. And here there is some positive news for the SNP. In recent months, the party has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/07/nicola-sturgeon-snp-undoubtedly-back-peoples-vote-brexit">pivoted</a> towards backing a second EU referendum. This allows the party to link independence and Europe at a time of great stress and problems for the UK state and political system. </p>
<p>It also legitimises the idea of a second independence referendum and has allowed the SNP to reach Remain voters who do not support either the party or independence. What it does with Leavers is a continuing problem, though, and it forces SNP leaders to spend time asking for something they’re probably not going to get from the UK government – not least in Sturgeon’s latest meeting with May. </p>
<p>Were there a so-called people’s vote, a repeat of 2016’s Leave victory might well make the Union more unattractive to No supporters. On the other hand, a Remain would cancel the SNP’s 2016 mandate, but would at least neutralise the potentially tricky issue in any future independence campaign of Scotland wanting to be inside the EU while its southern neighbour was not. </p>
<p>If there is not to be another EU referendum, the question then is how the Brexit crisis spirals in the next few weeks. This presumably explains Sturgeon’s plan to reveal her hand on a second independence referendum soon but not yet – no doubt while continuing to distance herself and her party from the Salmond case and the related inquiries. It’s still extremely difficult to call how all this potentially impacts on independence. But without question, the stakes have never looked higher for the Yes campaign as the clock ticks down towards Brexit on March 29.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/110632/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Lynch does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As the Brexit clock ticks down and the Alex Salmond crisis grows, the stakes have never been higher for his SNP successor.Peter Lynch, Senior Lecturer, Politics, University of StirlingLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.