tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/separatism-9702/articlesSeparatism – The Conversation2024-02-28T13:31:51Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2230782024-02-28T13:31:51Z2024-02-28T13:31:51ZNigeria’s security problems deepen as Anglophone insurgency in Cameroon spills across border<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576415/original/file-20240219-30-q5d1lg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=25%2C0%2C8575%2C5729&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Grieving for the 140 victims of a January 2024 attack in north-central Nigeria.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/NigeriaArmedViolence/744fff9339094b5c858f3235bb986cf4/photo?Query=nigeria%20violence&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=1261&currentItemNo=0">AP Photo/Sunday Alamba</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Over the past two decades, Nigeria has grappled with multiple and complex national <a href="https://www.straitstimes.com/world/nigeria-mulls-state-policing-to-combat-growing-insecurity">security threats</a>, each posing a significant challenge to its stability.</p>
<p>The nation finds itself fighting a <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/uhenergy/2017/02/13/oil-and-violence-in-the-niger-delta-isnt-talked-about-much-but-it-has-a-global-impact/?sh=532d63f54dc6">violent militancy in the Niger Delta</a>, <a href="https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/farmers-herders-conflicts-in-nigeria-a-role-for-fbos">conflicts between farmers and herders</a> across multiple regions, terrorism and insurgency in the northeast, banditry in the northwest and secessionist campaigns by groups such as the <a href="https://www.cfr.org/blog/us-should-not-designate-nigerias-ipob-terrorist-group">Indigenous People of Biafra</a> in the southeast.</p>
<p>Now a new layer of complexity has emerged in the form of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/cameroons-anglophone-conflict-has-lasted-for-six-years-what-citizens-say-about-how-to-end-it-208381">Ambazonian secessionist group</a> from Cameroon. This group’s growing threat, most recently seen in the December 2023 violent invasion of the Nigerian <a href="https://dailypost.ng/2023/12/11/ambazonia-rebels-control-belegete-community-block-nigerian-troops/">borderline village of Belegete</a>, adds to the strain on Nigeria’s national security capabilities.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=KhygkzYAAAAJ&hl=en">scholar specializing in</a> radicalization, violent extremism and counterterrorism in West and Central Africa, I believe the latest threat raises concerns about Nigeria’s strategic preparedness and ability to confront growing challenges.</p>
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<p>How the country responds could have far-reaching consequences. Nigeria is Africa’s <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1120999/gdp-of-african-countries-by-country/">largest economy</a> and <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/population/countries-in-africa-by-population/">most populous country</a>. Since its independence in 1960, Nigeria has played a crucial role in regional stability and security. It remains an <a href="https://www.state.gov/the-united-states-and-nigeria-partnering-for-prosperity">important diplomatic partner for the United States</a>, which provides support to the Nigerian government in its efforts to combat extremism in the region.</p>
<h2>Rise of a violent campaign</h2>
<p>Ambazonian separatists, seeking independence from the Republic of Cameroon, are mounting a bloody civil war that stems from the <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/central-africa/cameroon/b188-second-look-cameroons-anglophone-special-status">Anglophone crisis</a>, a protracted conflict rooted in the colonization of Cameroon by both the French and British governments.</p>
<p>Separatists from Camaroon’s two English-speaking regions declared independence from the French-speaking majority in 2017, and war has been raging between the separatists and Cameroon government forces ever since.</p>
<p>The Ambazonian secessionist movement, fueled by grievances that include <a href="https://theconversation.com/cameroon-how-language-plunged-a-country-into-deadly-conflict-with-no-end-in-sight-179027">the perceived dominance of Francophone Cameroonians</a>, seeks to secede and establish an <a href="https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/cameroon-anglophone-crisis/">independent Federal Republic of Ambazonia</a>.</p>
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<img alt="Grievance over perceived Francophone bias is fueling Camaroon insurgency." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576417/original/file-20240219-16-blke3m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576417/original/file-20240219-16-blke3m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576417/original/file-20240219-16-blke3m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576417/original/file-20240219-16-blke3m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576417/original/file-20240219-16-blke3m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576417/original/file-20240219-16-blke3m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576417/original/file-20240219-16-blke3m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A sign saying ‘Speak English and French for a bilingual Cameroon’ outside an abandoned school in a rural part of southwest Cameroon.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/sign-saying-speak-english-or-french-for-a-bilingual-news-photo/1154062017?adppopup=true%5C">Photo by Giles Clarke/UNOCHA via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Agitation over the past seven years has resulted in <a href="https://www.globalr2p.org/countries/cameroon/">violence and widespread human rights violations</a>. </p>
<p>Estimates by the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reveal that over <a href="https://reports.unocha.org/en/country/cameroon/">1.7 million</a> people are in dire need of humanitarian assistance. Furthermore, the Anglophone crisis has <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/central-africa/cameroon">resulted in</a> over 6,000 deaths and displaced 765,000 people. About 70,000 of these refugees are in Nigeria, including a few in the village of Belegete. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://humanglemedia.com/survivors-of-ambazonia-militant-attack-in-nigeria-are-experiencing-the-festive-season-differently/">attack in Belegete</a> in December left two dead, including the traditional leader, Chief Francis Ogweshi, and 20 others kidnapped. </p>
<h2>Nigeria’s national security</h2>
<p>As Cameroon’s clash with separatists worsens in southwestern Cameroon, the Ambazonian insurgents have moved into Nigeria. </p>
<p>The violent attack on the Belegete community, which followed earlier incursions in Nigeria such as the <a href="https://www.vanguardngr.com/2021/11/ambazonia-attack-death-toll-rises-to-12/">Manga village attack</a> of November 2021, suggests a growing cross-border element to Cameroon’s Anglophone crisis.</p>
<p>As well as presenting a violation of territorial integrity, the incident also suggests collaboration with Nigeria’s own secessionist groups, with evidence of <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/05/20/separatists-nigeria-cameroon-biafra-ipob-ambazonia-anglophone-joining-forces/">links between Ambazonian secessionists</a> and the Indigenous People of Biafra.</p>
<p>Ambazonian insurgents are also <a href="https://doi.org//10.4236/aasoci.2021.111001">engaged in drugs, arms and human trafficking</a> and have brought that illegal trade across the border into Nigeria.</p>
<p>The incursion of Ambazonian activities has not only added to Nigeria’s security challenges. It has also intensified an ongoing humanitarian crisis in Nigeria’s border region, displacing thousands of people and straining the capacity of authorities to care for its internally displaced persons and refugees from neighboring countries, including Cameroon.</p>
<p>As of June 2023, Nigeria has an estimated <a href="https://reporting.unhcr.org/operational/operations/nigeria">2.3 million internally displaced persons</a> and <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/nigeria/urban-refugees-nigeria-operational-update-may-2023-issue-2">93,130 refugees and asylum seekers</a>. The Belegete attack added to this by displacing the entire village of over 2,000 people, who took refuge in the neighboring village of Becheve.</p>
<h2>Confronting the emerging threat</h2>
<p>Nigeria’s capacity to confront the emerging Ambazonian threat is questionable, given multiple strategic, operational and tactical limitations. </p>
<p>The 2022 Afrobarometer <a href="https://www.afrobarometer.org/wp-content/uploads/migrated/files/publications/Working%20papers/wp190-mapping_state_capacity_in_africa-professionalism_and_reach-afrobarometer_working_paper-22jan22.pdf">working paper</a>, which mapped states’ capacity to prepare for or respond to security threats, concludes that Nigeria – like several African states – “is widely seen to lack the necessary capacity for the physical and material security of its citizens or to command legitimacy.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man in fatigues holding a gun Nigerian police officer stands guard." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576422/original/file-20240219-23-kh7yv5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576422/original/file-20240219-23-kh7yv5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576422/original/file-20240219-23-kh7yv5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576422/original/file-20240219-23-kh7yv5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576422/original/file-20240219-23-kh7yv5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576422/original/file-20240219-23-kh7yv5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576422/original/file-20240219-23-kh7yv5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A police officer in Yola, Nigeria.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/police-officer-sits-inside-the-armoured-personnel-carrier-news-photo/1247496889?adppopup=true">Photo by PIUS UTOMI EKPEI/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<p>The Ambazonian separatist insurgency poses a threat not only to Cameroon and Nigeria but risks further degrading the security situation in West Africa.</p>
<p>The Nigerian government, undoubtedly, understands the magnitude of the security threats it faces, and its apparent limitations, and has called for assistance. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, in a January 2024 letter to the outgoing French ambassador to Nigeria, Emmanuelle Blatmann, <a href="https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/more-news/658605-tinubu-wants-greater-cooperation-between-nigeria-france.html">stressed the need for strengthened cooperation</a>. “On regional security, we want you to remind Paris at every opportunity that it is necessary to upgrade our technical cooperation,” he wrote.</p>
<p>The United States has said it remains committed to assisting Nigeria. In January 2024, U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan met with his Nigerian counterpart, Nuhu Ribadu, and <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/01/18/readout-of-national-security-advisor-jake-sullivans-meeting-with-nigerian-national-security-adviser-nuhu-ribadu/">underscored the need</a> for continuous bilateral security cooperation.</p>
<p>And while Nigeria has in recent years partnered with Cameroon to ensure regional stability, the latest attack suggests a need to increase strategic cooperation between the neighboring countries to stem the growing threat. </p>
<p>However, countering the Ambazonian separatists and other internal security threats will remain a challenge for the Nigerian government. With a vast population and territory, security personnel are already stretched thin. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, the existing security apparatus in the country is compromised. The military is beset by problems, including <a href="https://www.genocidewatch.com/single-post/documentary-reveals-low-morale-in-nigerian-army">low morale</a> <a href="https://mg.co.za/africa/2023-02-16-nigerias-military-is-broken/">and corruption</a>, and the national police force is perceived as largely <a href="https://www.afrobarometer.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/AD715-Nigerians-fault-police-for-corruption-and-lack-of-professionalism-Afrobarometer-10oct23.pdf">unprofessional and corrupt</a>. </p>
<p>These issues hamper Nigeria’s capacity to respond, and they undermine any attempt to counter the spiraling security threats faced by Nigeria, including the Ambazonian separatists.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223078/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Augustine Aboh works for the University of Calabar, Nigeria. He is affiliated with the Office for Strategic Preparedness and Resilience - National Early Warning Centre, Nigeria. </span></em></p>Nigeria is beset with security threats. Confronting them will take regional and international cooperation.Augustine Aboh, Ph.D. candidate in Global Governance and Human Security, University of MassachusettsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2139602023-09-20T12:26:26Z2023-09-20T12:26:26ZWhy India fears the Khalistan movement and how Canada became embroiled in diplomatic spat over killing of Sikh separatist<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549211/original/file-20230920-27-ybhlcd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C51%2C3828%2C2531&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in happier times.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/canadian-prime-minister-justin-trudeau-with-pm-narendra-news-photo/923312238?adppopup=true">Vipin Kumar/Hindustan Times via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>India and Canada have engaged in <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/09/19/india-expels-canada-diplomat-sikh-assassination/">tit-for-tat diplomatic expulsions</a> as part of an escalating row over the <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/canada-india-killing-sikh-activist-hardeep-singh-nijjar-rcna105749#:%7E:text=Nijjar%2C%2045%2C%20was%20shot%20and,Trudeau%20told%20Parliament%20on%20Monday.">killing of a Sikh separatist leader</a> on Canadian soil.</em></p>
<p><em>The expulsions follow claims by Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau that there are “<a href="https://abc13.com/canada-investigating-credible-allegations-linked-to-sikh-leaders/13799637/">credible allegations</a>” linking the Indian government of Narendra Modi with the <a href="https://apnews.com/article/canada-india-sikh-trudeau-modi-nijjar-fb390e4a45d167711db4f96681edd0a2#:%7E:text=NEW%20DELHI%20(AP)%20%E2%80%94%20Hardeep,a%20terrorist%20by%20India's%20government.">death of Hardeep Singh Nijjar</a>. Nijjar, a prominent member of the Khalistan movement seeking to create an independent Sikh homeland in the Indian state of Punjab, was shot dead on June 18, 2023, outside a Sikh cultural center in Surrey, British Columbia.</em></p>
<p><em>With tensions between the two countries rising, The Conversation reached out to <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=LVf6UHIAAAAJ&hl=en">Mark Juergensmeyer</a> – an expert on religious violence and Sikh nationalism – at the University of California, Santa Barbara, to bring context to a diplomatic spat few saw coming.</em></p>
<h2>1. What is the Khalistan movement?</h2>
<p>“Khalistan” means “the land of the pure,” though in this context the term “khalsa” refers broadly to the religious community of Sikhs, and the term “Khalistan” implies that <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/what-is-khalistan-movement-why-is-it-fuelling-india-canada-rift-2023-09-19/">they should have their own nation</a>. The likely location for this nation would be in Punjab state in northern India where <a href="https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/religionglobalsociety/2023/01/rethinking-religion-and-nationalism-the-case-of-the-sikhs/">18 million Sikhs live</a>. A further 8 million Sikhs <a href="https://doi.org/10.4000/osb.5894">live elsewhere in India and abroad</a>, mainly in the U.K., the U.S. and Canada. </p>
<p><iframe id="Eempy" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Eempy/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>The idea for an independent land for Sikhs goes back to pre-partition India, when the concept of a separate land for Muslims in India was being considered.</p>
<p>Some Sikhs at that time thought that if Muslims could have “Pakistan” – the state that <a href="https://storyofpakistan.com/the-birth-of-pakistan-2/">emerged through partition in 1947</a> – then there should also be a “Sikhistan,” or “Khalistan.” That idea was rejected by the Indian government, and instead the Sikhs <a href="https://punjab.global.ucsb.edu/sites/secure.lsit.ucsb.edu.gisp.d7_sp/files/sitefiles/journals/volume19/no2/Sandhu.pdf">became a part of the state of Punjab</a>. At that time the boundaries of the Punjab were drawn in such a way that the Sikhs were not in the majority. </p>
<p>But Sikhs persisted, in part because one of the central tenets of the faith is “<a href="https://sikhri.org/articles/miri-piri">miri-piri</a>” – the idea that religious and political leadership are merged. In their 500-year history, Sikhs <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/sikhs-of-the-punjab/sikh-empire-17991849/F392B4CF5D691DA781A20C00CCF5DC2A">have had their own kingdom</a>, have fought against Moghul rule and constituted the <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/chandigarh/gallant-and-patriotic-how-sikhs-shaped-armed-forces/articleshow/99028321.cms?from=mdr">backbone of the army</a> under India’s colonial and independent rule. </p>
<p>In the 1960s, the idea of a <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-66852291">separate homeland for Sikhs</a> reemerged and formed part of the demand for redrawing the boundaries of Punjab state so that Sikhs would be in the majority. The protests were successful, and the Indian government created <a href="https://www.thesikhencyclopedia.com/historical-events-in-sikh-history/the-modern-history-of-sikhs-1947-present/punjabi-suba-movement/">Punjabi Suba</a>, a state whose boundaries included speakers of the Punjabi language used by most Sikhs. They now compose <a href="https://religionunplugged.com/news/2022/3/11/how-sikhs-became-a-new-target-of-indias-right-wing-and-voted-out-the-bjp">58% of the population</a> of the revised Punjab. </p>
<p>The notion of a “Khalistan” separate from India resurfaced in a dramatic way in the <a href="https://time.com/3545867/india-1984-sikh-genocide-anniversary/">large-scale militant uprising</a> that erupted in the Punjab in the 1980s. Many of those Sikhs who joined the militant movement did so because they wanted an independent Sikh nation, not just a Sikh-majority Indian state. </p>
<h2>2. Why is the Indian government especially concerned about it now?</h2>
<p>The Sikh uprising in the 1980s was a violent encounter <a href="https://time.com/3545867/india-1984-sikh-genocide-anniversary/">between the Indian armed police and militant young Sikhs</a>, many of whom still harbored a yearning for a separate state in Punjab. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549219/original/file-20230920-29-o3pv4f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Several men, wearing yellow or blue turbans and flowing white shirts, standing inside a building, while holding guns." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549219/original/file-20230920-29-o3pv4f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549219/original/file-20230920-29-o3pv4f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=843&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549219/original/file-20230920-29-o3pv4f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=843&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549219/original/file-20230920-29-o3pv4f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=843&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549219/original/file-20230920-29-o3pv4f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1060&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549219/original/file-20230920-29-o3pv4f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1060&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549219/original/file-20230920-29-o3pv4f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1060&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sikh leader Jarnail Singh Bhindranwale, seated center, with his followers in Amritsar, on April 17, 1984.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/IndiaJarnailBhindranwale/ac229078c41d41359643bf9de67da2cb/photo?Query=operation%20bluestar&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=1050&currentItemNo=2&vs=true">AP Photo/Sondeep Shanker</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Thousands of lives were lost on both sides in <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2014/10/29/india-no-justice-1984-anti-sikh-bloodshed">violent encounters between the Sikh militants and security forces</a>. The conflict came to a head in 1984 when Prime Minister Indira Gandhi <a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-history/operation-bluestar-history-explained-8648026/">launched Operation Blue Star</a> to liberate the Sikh’s Golden Temple from militants in the pilgrimage center of Amritsar and capture or kill the figurehead of the Khalistan movement, Sant Jarnail Singh Bhindranwale. He was killed in the attack, and Sikhs around the world were incensed that their sacred place was violated by police action. Indira Gandhi was <a href="https://warwick.ac.uk/newsandevents/features/indira-gandhi-assassination/">assassinated in retaliation</a> by Sikh members of her own bodyguard. </p>
<p>In recent years, several firebrand Sikh activists in India have reasserted the idea of Khalistan, and the Indian government <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/22/india/india-separatist-khalistan-movement-explainer-intl-hnk/index.html">fears a return</a> of the violence and militancy of the 1980s. The government of Narendra Modi <a href="https://sundayguardianlive.com/news/pm-modi-seeks-action-against-khalistan-network-in-the-west">wants to nip the movement</a> in the bud before it gets too large and extreme.</p>
<h2>3. What is the connection between the Khalistan movement and Canada?</h2>
<p>After the Sikh uprising was <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1996/09/16/world/a-decade-after-massacre-some-sikhs-find-justice.html">crushed in the early 1990s</a>, many Sikh activists fled India and went to Canada, where they were welcomed by a large Sikh community – many of whom had been sympathetic to the Khalistan idea. A sizable expatriate community of Sikhs has been <a href="https://link.springer.com/referenceworkentry/10.1007/978-0-387-29904-4_110">growing in the country since the early 20th century</a>, especially in British Columbia and Ontario.</p>
<p>Sikhs have been attracted to Canada not only because of its economic opportunities but also because of the freedom to develop their own ideas of Sikh community. Though support for Khalistan is <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/22/india/india-separatist-khalistan-movement-explainer-intl-hnk/index.html">illegal in India</a>, in <a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-history/history-khalistan-in-canada-explained-8946517/">Canada Sikh activists</a> are able to speak freely and organize for the cause.</p>
<p>Though Khalistan would be in India, the Canadian movement in favor of it helps to cement the diaspora Sikh identity and give the Canadian activists a sense of connection to the Indian homeland. </p>
<h2>4. Has the Canadian government been sympathetic to the Khalistan movement?</h2>
<p>The diaspora community of Sikhs <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/221026/dq221026b-eng.htm">constitutes 2.1% of Canada’s population</a> – a higher percentage of the total population than in India. They make up a significant voting block in the country and carry political clout. In fact, there are more Sikhs in Canada’s cabinet than in India’s.</p>
<p>Although Trudeau has assured the Indian government that any acts of violence will be punished, he also has reassured Canadians that he respects free speech and the rights of Sikhs to speak and organize freely as long as they do not violate Canadian laws. </p>
<h2>5. What is the broader context of Canada-India relations?</h2>
<p>The Bharata Janata Party, or BJP, of India’s Prime Minister Modi tends to support Hindu nationalism.</p>
<p>Recently, the Modi government <a href="https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2023/09/15/will-india-change-its-name-to-bharat">used “Bharat” rather than “India</a>” when referring to the country while hosting the G20 conference, attended by President Joe Biden, among other world dignitaries. “Bharat” is the preference of Hindu nationalists. This privileging, along with an increase in hate crimes, has led to an environment of fear and distrust among minorities, including Sikhs and Muslims, in India.</p>
<p>Considering the high percentage of Sikhs in Canada’s population, Trudeau understandably wants to assert the rights of Sikhs and show disapproval of the drift toward Hindu nationalism in India.</p>
<p>And this isn’t the only time that Trudeau and Modi have clashed over the issue. In 2018, Trudeau was condemned in India for his <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-india-atwal-controversy-1.4546502">friendship with Jaspal Singh Atwal</a>, a Khalistani supporter in Canada who was convicted of attempting to assassinate the chief minister of Punjab. </p>
<p>Yet both countries have reasons to try to move on from the current diplomatic contretemps. India and Canada have close trading ties and common strategic concerns with <a href="https://theconversation.com/justin-trudeaus-india-accusation-complicates-western-efforts-to-rein-in-china-213922">relationship to China</a>. It is likely that, in time, both sides will find ways to cool down the tensions from this difficult incident.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213960/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Juergensmeyer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau spoke of ‘credible allegations’ of Indian involvement in a Sikh leader’s death.Mark Juergensmeyer, Professor of Sociology and Global Studies, University of California, Santa BarbaraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2008132023-03-20T12:42:57Z2023-03-20T12:42:57ZSecession is here: States, cities and the wealthy are already withdrawing from America<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515905/original/file-20230316-20-kjjhgl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C3%2C2117%2C1406&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Acts of secession are happening across the U.S.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/illustration/poster-map-united-states-of-america-with-royalty-free-illustration/610663444?phrase=U.S.%20map&adppopup=true">Vector Illustration/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Republican from Georgia, wants a “<a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-refuses-back-national-divorce-proposal/story?id=97390020">national divorce</a>.” In her view, another Civil War is inevitable unless red and blue states form separate countries. </p>
<p>She has <a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/texas-republican-bill-secession-referendum-1234691622/">plenty of company</a> on the <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/12/21/secession-donald-trump-449348">right</a>, where a host of others – <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2021/12/13/how-seriously-should-we-take-talk-of-us-state-secession/">52% of Trump voters</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/trump-wants-parts-of-the-country-to-secede--at-least-in-their-minds/2020/10/22/7f4bc048-148f-11eb-ad6f-36c93e6e94fb_story.html">Donald Trump himself</a> and <a href="https://www.texasmonthly.com/news-politics/are-texas-republicans-serious-about-secession/">prominent Texas Republicans</a> – have endorsed various forms of secession in recent years. Roughly <a href="https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/new-initiative-explores-deep-persistent-divides-between-biden-and-trump-voters/">40% of Biden voters</a> have fantasized about a national divorce as well. Some on the <a href="https://newrepublic.com/article/140948/bluexit-blue-states-exit-trump-red-america">left</a>
urge a domestic breakup so that a new <a href="https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/secession-constitution-elections-senate/">egalitarian nation</a> might be, as Lincoln said at Gettysburg, “brought forth on this continent.” </p>
<p>The American Civil War was a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lWpe3lsWZpQ">national trauma</a> precipitated by the secession of 11 Southern states over slavery. It is, therefore, understandable that many <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/02/states-disunion-secession-movements-richard-kreitner/673191/">pundits and commentators</a> would <a href="https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2023/02/sean-hannity-marjorie-taylor-greene-secessionist">weigh in</a> about the <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/3869319-us-secession-is-a-great-idea-for-russia/">legality, feasibility and wisdom</a> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/05/opinion/national-divorce-civil-war.html">of secession</a> when others clamor for divorce. </p>
<p>But all this secession talk misses a key point that every troubled couple knows. Just as there are ways to withdraw from a marriage before any formal divorce, there are also ways to exit a nation before officially seceding.</p>
<p>I have <a href="https://communication.cofc.edu/about/faculty-staff-listing/lee-michael.php">studied secession</a> for 20 years, and I think that it is not just a “<a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/3884444-what-if-marjorie-taylor-greenes-secessionist-fantasy-came-true/">what if?</a>” scenario anymore. In “<a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/we-are-not-one-people-9780190876517?lang=en&cc=us">We Are Not One People: Secession and Separatism in American Politics Since 1776</a>,” my co-author and I go beyond narrow discussions of secession and the Civil War to frame secession as an extreme end point on a scale that includes various acts of <a href="https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674276604">exit</a> that have already taken place across the U.S. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515909/original/file-20230316-26-oqmrry.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A blond woman in a pink jacket stands in front of many lights and a marquee that says 'Marjorie Taylor Greene'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515909/original/file-20230316-26-oqmrry.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515909/original/file-20230316-26-oqmrry.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515909/original/file-20230316-26-oqmrry.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515909/original/file-20230316-26-oqmrry.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515909/original/file-20230316-26-oqmrry.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515909/original/file-20230316-26-oqmrry.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515909/original/file-20230316-26-oqmrry.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene wants red and blue states to separate.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/rep-marjorie-taylor-greene-speaks-during-the-annual-news-photo/1470988997?phrase=Marjorie%20Taylor%20Greene&adppopup=true">Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Scaled secession</h2>
<p>This scale begins with smaller, targeted exits, like a person getting out of jury duty, and progresses to include the larger ways that communities refuse to comply with state and federal authorities. </p>
<p>Such refusals could involve legal maneuvers like <a href="https://www.thoughtco.com/nullification-definition-and-examples-5203930">interposition</a>, in which a community delays or constrains the enforcement of a law it opposes, or <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781315081595-5/overturned-america-nullification-brown-board-education-albert-samuels">nullification</a>, in which a community explicitly declares a law to be null and void within its borders. At the end of the scale, there’s secession.</p>
<p>From this wider perspective, it is clear that many acts of departure – call them secession lite, de facto secession or soft separatism – are occurring right now. Americans have responded to increasing polarization by exploring the gradations between soft separatism and hard secession. </p>
<p>These escalating exits make sense in a <a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Why-Were-Polarized/Ezra-Klein/9781476700366">polarized nation</a> whose citizens are sorting themselves into <a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/U/bo27527354.html">like-minded neighbhorhoods</a>. When compromise is elusive and coexistence is unpleasant, citizens have three options to get their way: Defeat the other side, eliminate the other side or get away from the other side.</p>
<p>Imagine a national law; it could be a mandate that citizens brush their teeth twice a day or a statute criminalizing texting while driving. Then imagine that a special group of people did not have to obey that law. </p>
<p>This quasi-secession can be achieved in several ways. Maybe this special group moves “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ILcUScfebJ4">off the grid</a>” into the boondocks where they could text and drive without fear of oversight. Maybe this special group wields political power and can buy, bribe or lawyer their way out of any legal jam. Maybe this special group has persuaded a powerful authority, say Congress or the Supreme Court, to grant them unique <a href="https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2017/12/6/16741840/religious-liberty-history-law-masterpiece-cakeshop">legal exemptions</a>.</p>
<p>These are hypothetical scenarios, but not imaginary ones. When groups exit public life and its civic duties and burdens, when they live under their own sets of rules, when they do not have to live with fellow citizens they have not chosen or listen to authorities they do not like, they have already seceded.</p>
<h2>Schools to taxes</h2>
<p>Present-day America offers numerous hard examples of soft separatism. </p>
<p>Over the past two decades, <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/7/27/16004084/school-segregation-evolution">scores</a> of wealthy white communities have separated from more diverse school districts. Advocates cite local control to justify these acts of school secession. But the result is the creation of <a href="https://harvardcrcl.org/opting-out-school-district-secession-and-local-control/">parallel</a> school districts, both relatively homogeneous but vastly different in racial makeup and economic background.</p>
<p>Several prominent district exits have occurred in the South – places like <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/education/archive/2019/05/resegregation-baton-rouge-public-schools/589381/">St. George, Louisiana</a> – but instances from <a href="https://edbuild.org/content/fractured#intro">northern Maine to Southern California</a> show that school splintering <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/07/14/1111060299/school-segregation-report">is happening nationwide</a>. </p>
<p>As one reporter <a href="https://www.vox.com/2019/9/6/20853091/school-secession-racial-segregation-louisiana-alabama">wrote</a>, “If you didn’t want to attend school with certain people in your district, you just needed to find a way to put a district line between you and them.”</p>
<p>Many other examples of legalized separatism revolve around taxes. Disney World, for example, was classified as a “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/19/business/desantis-disney-world-district.html">special tax district</a>” in Florida in 1967. These special districts are functionally separate local governments and can provide public services and build and maintain their own infrastructure. </p>
<p>The company has saved millions by avoiding typical zoning, permitting and inspection processes for decades, although Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis <a href="https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-03-01/what-did-disney-actually-lose-from-its-florida-battle-with-desantis">has recently challenged</a> Disney’s special designation. Disney was only one of 1,800 special tax districts in Florida; there are <a href="https://gfrc.uic.edu/special-districts-americas-shadow-governments/">over 35,000</a> in the nation.</p>
<p>Jeff Bezos paid no federal income taxes in 2011. Elon Musk paid <a href="https://www.propublica.org/article/the-secret-irs-files-trove-of-never-before-seen-records-reveal-how-the-wealthiest-avoid-income-tax">almost none</a> in 2018. Tales of wealthy individuals <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/08/25/1119412217/how-the-ultrawealthy-devise-ways-to-not-pay-their-share-of-taxes">avoiding taxes</a> are as common as stories of rich Americans buying <a href="https://www.latimes.com/opinion/opinion-la/la-ol-affluenza-texas-case-20131213-story.html">their way out</a> of jail. “Wealthier Americans,” <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1991/01/20/magazine/secession-of-the-successful.html">Robert Reich lamented</a> as far back as the early 1990s, “have been withdrawing into their own neighborhoods and clubs for generations.” Reich worried that a “new secession” allowed the rich to “inhabit a different economy from other Americans.” </p>
<p>Some of the nation’s wealthiest citizens pay an <a href="https://www.propublica.org/article/the-secret-irs-files-trove-of-never-before-seen-records-reveal-how-the-wealthiest-avoid-income-tax">effective tax rate</a> <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-57383869">close to zero</a>. As one investigative reporter put it, the ultrawealthy “<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-57383869">sidestep the system in an entirely legal way</a>.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515921/original/file-20230316-20-londr7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A lot of people applauding as they sit at a meeting." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515921/original/file-20230316-20-londr7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515921/original/file-20230316-20-londr7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515921/original/file-20230316-20-londr7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515921/original/file-20230316-20-londr7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515921/original/file-20230316-20-londr7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515921/original/file-20230316-20-londr7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515921/original/file-20230316-20-londr7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Spectators applaud after the Buckingham County Board of Supervisors unanimously votes to pass a Second Amendment sanctuary resolution at a meeting in Buckingham, Va., Dec. 9, 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/GunSanctuariesVirginia/dfa46843d6df44f799a5a408248a4f0a/photo?Query=Second%20Amendment%20Sanctuary&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=14&currentItemNo=12">AP Photo/Steve Helber</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>One nation, divisible</h2>
<p>Schools and taxes are just a start. </p>
<p>Eleven states dub themselves “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/09/us/politics/missouri-gun-law.html">Second Amendment sanctuaries</a>” and refuse to enforce federal gun restrictions. Movements aiming to carve off rural, more politically conservative portions of blue states <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2023/01/10/county-secession-local-efforts-to-redraw-political-borders/">are growing</a>; 11 counties in Eastern Oregon <a href="https://oregoncapitalchronicle.com/2023/02/15/idaho-house-passes-nonbinding-measure-calling-for-formal-greater-idaho-talks/">support seceding</a> and <a href="https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/nation-politics/campaign-to-join-idaho-gains-support-of-two-more-oregon-counties/">reclassifying themselves</a> as “Greater Idaho,” a move that Idaho’s <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/greater-idaho-movement-lawmakers-house-rural-oregon-counties-join-state-2023-2">state government supports</a>. </p>
<p>Hoping to become a separate state independent of Chicago’s political influence, over two dozen rural Illinois counties have passed <a href="https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/chicago-politics/27-counties-in-illinois-have-passed-referendums-to-explore-seceding-from-state-heres-where/2993937/%22">pro-secession referendums</a>. Some <a href="https://www.texasmonthly.com/news-politics/are-texas-republicans-serious-about-secession/">Texas</a> Republicans back “Texit,” where the state becomes an independent nation. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.vermontpublic.org/programs/2017-11-03/what-would-it-look-like-if-vermont-seceded">Separatist ideas</a> come from the Left, too. </p>
<p>“<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/calexit-explainer-california-plans-to-secede-2016-11">Cal-exit</a>,” a plan for California to leave the union after 2016, was the most acute recent attempt at secession. </p>
<p>And separatist acts have reshaped life and law in many states. Since 2012, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/07/us/20230306-oklahoma-marijuana-vote-five-charts-dg/index.html">21 states</a> have legalized marijuana, which is <a href="https://www.vox.com/identities/2018/8/20/17938372/marijuana-legalization-federal-prohibition-drug-scheduling-system">federally illegal</a>. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/made-by-history/2022/09/15/red-states-send-migrants-blue-states-sanctuary-cities-are-crucial/">Sanctuary cities and states</a> have emerged since 2016 to combat aggressive federal immigration laws and policies. Some <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/dozens-elected-prosecutors-say-will-refuse-prosecute-abortion-care-rcna35305">prosecutors and judges refuse</a> to prosecute women and medical providers for newly illegal abortions in some states. </p>
<p>Estimates vary, but some Americans are increasingly opting out of hypermodern, hyperpolarized life entirely. “Intentional communities,” rural, sustainable, cooperative communes like <a href="https://www.ic.org/directory/east-wind-community/">East Wind in the Ozarks</a>, are, as The New York Times reported in 2020, proliferating “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/16/t-magazine/intentional-communities.html">across the country</a>.”</p>
<p>In many ways, America is already broken apart. When secession is portrayed in its strictest sense, as a group of people declaring independence and taking a portion of a nation as they depart, the discussion is myopic, and current acts of exit hide in plain sight. When it comes to secession, the question is not just “What if?” but “What now?”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200813/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael J. Lee does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Secession talk evokes fears of a second Civil War. But one scholar says secession is already happening in the US under a variety of guises.Michael J. Lee, Professor of Communication, College of CharlestonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1670962021-09-01T12:10:28Z2021-09-01T12:10:28ZWhat’s on the agenda when Ukraine president meets Biden?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/418755/original/file-20210831-21-gyraft.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C7575%2C5042&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">What's on the table during Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's Washington visit?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/ukrainian-president-volodymyr-zelensky-meets-with-u-s-news-photo/1234980704?adppopup=true">Drew Angerer/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>A long-awaited – <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/defense/570194-us-pledges-60m-in-military-aid-to-ukraine-ahead-of-zelensky-visit">and previously postponed</a> – White House meeting for Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is due to take place Sept. 1, 2021.</em> </p>
<p><em>The sitdown with President Joe Biden is being viewed in Ukraine as <a href="http://euromaidanpress.com/2021/08/30/white-house-postpones-ukrainian-president-zelenskyys-meeting-with-biden-for-second-time/">hugely important</a>, both symbolically and practically. Zelenskyy is expected to seek a <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/blinken-in-ukraine-reaffirms-u-s-support-amid-russia-tensions">strong commitment</a> from the U.S., pledging support for Ukraine in its conflict with Russia. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian president will also be lobbying Biden over the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-vladimir-putin-uses-natural-gas-to-exert-russian-influence-and-punish-his-enemies-162413">Nord Stream 2 Pipeline</a> – a Russia-to-Germany gas pipeline that will circumvent Ukraine, starving Kyiv of annual gas revenue that could run into the billions of dollars.</em></p>
<p><em>Lena Surzhko Harned, an <a href="https://behrend.psu.edu/person/olena-surzhko-harned">expert in post-Soviet Ukraine</a> at Penn State University, walked The Conversation through the issues.</em></p>
<h2>War and diplomacy</h2>
<p>Ukraine says its security and territorial integrity have repeatedly been threatened by Russia since 2014.</p>
<p>In February of that year, <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/03/17/crimea-six-years-after-illegal-annexation/">Russia annexed Crimea</a>, a peninsula on the Black Sea. Later a war broke out between the Ukrainian military and so-called pro-Russia separatists <a href="https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-shootings-donetsk-moscow-russia-3d2e732cc1a88c0d1b36fe856b45a8a9">in the Donbas region</a> in the east of the country. Despite no longer receiving the same level of international attention as it did in the early months of conflict, the <a href="https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/one-ukrainian-soldier-killed-two-soldiers-injured-in-donbas.html">war continues to generate casualties</a>.</p>
<p>Ukraine maintains that Russia is <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-32805555">directly involved</a> in the fighting in Donbas – a charge the Putin government <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/russia-denies-moving-towards-war-with-ukraine/a-57162253">has repeatedly denied</a>, to general skepticism by others in the international community. </p>
<p>Zelenskyy was elected in 2019 on an electoral promise to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/ukraines-zelensky-wants-to-end-a-war-in-the-east-his-problem-no-one-agrees-how-to-do-it/2020/03/19/ae653cbc-6399-11ea-8a8e-5c5336b32760_story.html">end the war</a> and <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/7/22/zelenskyys-party-set-for-unprecedented-majority-in-ukraine-vote">return Crimea</a> to Ukraine. He appears to have settled on a strategy of building up the support of the international community while asserting the country’s right to self-defense, via military buildup in Ukraine.</p>
<p>As part of Zelenskyy’s international diplomatic push, last week he launched the <a href="https://crimea-platform.org/en">Crimean Platform</a> initiative. A first meeting for the initiative on Aug. 23, 2021, attracted government representatives from 46 countries, including the U.S. The attending countries issued a <a href="https://mfa.gov.ua/en/news/joint-declaration-international-crimea-platform-participants">joint resolution</a> calling for the “return” of Crimea to Ukraine. This echoes the view of the Biden administration, which has in the past affirmed its commitment to Ukraine’s territorial integrity by recognizing that “<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/02/26/statement-by-president-biden-on-the-anniversary-of-russias-illegal-invasion-of-ukraine/">Crimea is Ukraine</a>.” </p>
<p>Meanwhile, evidence of a more assertive self-defense stance by Ukraine can be seen in the past week’s celebration of Ukraine’s 30th Independence Day, during which Zelenskyy’s administration <a href="https://www.euronews.com/2021/08/24/ukraine-celebrates-30th-independence-anniversary-with-military-parade">put on a full parade</a>, including naval and air force displays, celebrating Ukrainian military achievement. </p>
<p>The flexing of diplomatic and military muscles has not been taken lightly in Russia, which <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/kremlin-denounces-ukraines-anti-russian-summit-attended-all-nato-allies-1622066">reacted to the Crimean Platform</a> by portraying it as a threat to Russian sovereignty. </p>
<h2>Trouble in the pipeline</h2>
<p>The meeting between Zelenskyy and Biden also comes amid growing concern in Ukraine over the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which is being viewed in Ukraine as a <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/nord-stream-2-threat-ukraine-and-eu-neighbors-must-expand-border-infrastructure/">geopolitical weapon in Russia’s hands</a>.</p>
<p>The gas pipeline from Russia to Europe could mean revenue loss to Ukraine of <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-57923655">up to US$3 billion a year</a> in gas transit fees. </p>
<p>Moreover, there are <a href="https://www.axios.com/zelensky-biden-ukraine-russia-nord-stream-pipeline-fe50756b-6b82-43f0-b390-734ea3e95de0.html">fears in the capital, Kyiv</a>, that once Russia is no longer dependent on Ukraine for its transit infrastructure – which it needs to transport gas to the lucrative European Union market – Russia might be able to move more aggressively in full military action in Ukraine. The buildup of <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/satellite-images-show-russias-expanding-ukraine-buildup-11618917238">Russian military</a> around Ukrainian borders in April 2021 reminded Ukraine of Russia’s threatening military presence. </p>
<p>The pipeline is <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-25/nord-stream-2-won-t-be-exempted-from-eu-rules-german-court-says">near completion</a> and has been a source of intense international conversation, with Germany and Russia arguing that the pipeline is an economic project, not a political one, as it is portrayed by Ukraine and others. </p>
<p>Germany has committed to <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy-environment/news/ukraine-gets-compensation-in-exchange-for-us-germany-deal-on-nord-stream-2/">guarantee that Ukraine</a> will have some compensation for any losses related to the pipeline in the form of investments. Outgoing leader Angela Merkel has said that Germany <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/biden-expressed-concerns-about-nord-stream-2-merkel-2021-07-15/">will use sanctions and other economic mechanisms</a> available should Russia attempt to use gas as a weapon against Ukraine or Europe. But given that such commitments are coming from a leader who will soon be leaving office, Ukraine remains skeptical. </p>
<h2>What Ukraine wants from the US</h2>
<p>Against this background, President Zelenskyy is likely to seek firm assurances from Biden that the U.S. will treat Ukraine as an equal partner when it comes to questions of security and peace in the region.</p>
<p>This will include military assistance – <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/defense/570194-us-pledges-60m-in-military-aid-to-ukraine-ahead-of-zelensky-visit">$60 million of which was pledged</a> by the U.S. to Ukraine ahead of the Sept. 1 meeting.</p>
<p>Zelenskyy will also be looking for progress – and support – from the U.S. on the issue of Ukraine’s ambitions to join NATO. Biden has previously indicated that <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/biden-says-it-remains-be-seen-if-ukraine-will-be-n1270807">Ukraine still has work to do in tackling corruption</a> before it can get the go-ahead to join the military alliance. Zelenskyy is likely to highlight his administration’s <a href="https://www.euronews.com/2021/06/22/ukraine-s-volodymyr-zelenskyy-speeds-up-corruption-crackdown-one-oligarch-at-a-time">anti-corruption reforms</a> in order to make progress on this.</p>
<p>[<em>Over 100,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletter to understand the world.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=100Ksignup">Sign up today</a>.]</p>
<p>A more immediate concern for Zelenskyy may be persuading Biden to announce fresh sanctions over the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. The Biden administration <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-57180674">lifted earlier sanctions</a> related to the pipeline in May, a move that disappointed Ukraine and was attacked by <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/republicans-slam-biden-administration-report-nord-stream-sanctions-waivers-2021-05-18/">Republicans in the U.S.</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/167096/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lena Surzhko Harned does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is expected to seek commitments from his US counterpart, pledging support in his country’s ongoing battle with the Russian Federation.Lena Surzhko Harned, Assistant Teaching Professor of Political Science, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1627052021-08-15T16:36:56Z2021-08-15T16:36:56ZFrance’s new ‘separatism’ law stigmatises minorities and could backfire badly<p>France’s constitutional council has approved, with minor amendments, the “law consolidating respect for the principles of the Republic”, a <a href="https://www.vie-publique.fr/loi/277621-loi-respect-des-principes-de-la-republique">bill</a> that aims to counter “separatism” in French society. It is part of President Emmanuel Macron’s program to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/23/world/europe/france-terrorism-islamist-extremism-laws-passed.html">combat terrorism</a>.</p>
<p>The bill includes measures to oblige neutrality in organisations that collaborate with public services, allow the government exert more control over charities and NGOs, require authorisation for home schooling and outlaw “virginity certificates”.</p>
<p>The law has been the subject of much controversy since it was drafted. Some on the left, including NGOs and university groups, <a href="https://www.liberation.fr/debats/2021/01/21/loi-separatisme-une-grave-atteinte-aux-libertes-associatives_1818075/">say it is an attack on civil liberties</a>, while others, including right-wing politicians, consider it <a href="https://www.liberation.fr/politique/loi-separatisme-lr-ressort-ses-ficelles-securitaires-20210202_FOTNIZIA5VD3FDZQZGAZUP7UW4/">too weak</a> in its refusal to use the term “communitarianism” instead of “separatism” or to ban the veil in public spaces for minors.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Lire cet article en Français</em>: <strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/lutte-contre-le-separatisme-une-loi-qui-stigmatise-les-minorites-159576">“Lutte contre le séparatisme”, une loi qui stigmatise les minorités?</a></strong></p>
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<h2>Separatism vs. universalism</h2>
<p>In France, it is not forbidden to form a community – it is even part of the <a href="https://www.vie-publique.fr/fiches/23865-libertes-et-droits-fondamentaux-de-quoi-sagit-il">fundamental freedoms</a> enshrined in the constitution, through the guarantee of freedom of association, worship, trade unionism and politics.</p>
<p><a href="https://journals.openedition.org/cpuc/425#tocto1n1">Sociologically speaking</a>, forming a community means grouping together with others due to a feeling of belonging or shared common interests. It can be a good thing for society. But the term “separatism” in French has a purely negative meaning. Historically, the term “separatist” has been used to stigmatise attempts to organise religious, territorial or racial minorities in France.</p>
<p>This raises questions about the effects of this law on an already marginalised population, who are <a href="https://www.assemblee-nationale.fr/dyn/15/textes/l15t0641_texte-adopte-seance#">not mentioned in the text</a>, but who are directly targeted by it: French Muslims.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Print from 1793 using a common motif of the First Republic bearing the slogan: ‘Unity, Indivisibility of the Republic, Liberty, Equality, Fraternity or Death’" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415699/original/file-20210811-15-1kyh7m3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415699/original/file-20210811-15-1kyh7m3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=780&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415699/original/file-20210811-15-1kyh7m3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=780&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415699/original/file-20210811-15-1kyh7m3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=780&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415699/original/file-20210811-15-1kyh7m3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=980&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415699/original/file-20210811-15-1kyh7m3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=980&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415699/original/file-20210811-15-1kyh7m3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=980&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">France has valued the principle of universalism since the 1789 revolution.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universalisme_r%C3%A9publicain#/media/Fichier:Unit%C3%A9_Indivisibilit%C3%A9_de_la_R%C3%A9publique.jpg">Bibliothèque en ligne Gallica</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In France, the notion of separatism resonates because of its counterpart: universalism. The political theory of the French nation is based on <a href="https://www.rosalux.eu/en/article/1812.21st-century-universalism-will-be-anti-racist-or-it-won-t-be-at-all.html">republican universalism</a>, i.e. on a nation understood as one and indivisible, with universal values, which apply to all its components, regardless of their origin, race, gender or social class.</p>
<p>In this context, the term “separatist” refers to communities that are supposedly <a href="https://www.cairn.info/revue-migrations-societe-2021-1-page-3.htm">hostile to the nation as a whole</a>. The idea that some Muslims in France might place their faith and the norms of their religious community above their national belonging and the laws of the Republic would be characteristic of what is now often referred to as “Islamic separatism”.</p>
<h2>A history of separatism</h2>
<p>Muslims are not the first group of people on French territory to be suspected of separatism. Since the French Revolution, any attempt to promote the recognition of composite identities within the French nation (either religious, political or regional) been met with <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/j.1468-229X.1980.tb01951.x">significant repression</a>.</p>
<p>The term “separatism” was first used in 1939, according to criminal justice expert Vanessa Codaccioni. Back then, it targeted <a href="https://www.rfi.fr/fr/france/20200912-quoi-s%C3%A9paratisme-est-il-le-nom-france-loi-laicite-republique">communists, suspected of promoting the interests of the USSR from within</a>.</p>
<p>The notion has also been used to disqualify <a href="https://www.decitre.fr/livres/justice-d-exception-9782271085986.html">struggles against French colonialism</a>, notably those of the Algerian people, and also autonomist movements within French territory, be they Basque, Guyanese or Martinican. It was above all President Charles De Gaulle who promoted the idea of the “separatist”, using it to <a href="https://www.franceculture.fr/histoire/separatisme-de-lanti-france-chez-les-soviets-a-lislam-en-passant-par-la-negritude">attack his political opponents</a>.</p>
<p>Accusing some Muslims today of being separatists is therefore part of France’s revolutionary and colonial heritage. It implies that a part of the national community behaves like an <a href="https://www.editionsladecouverte.fr/l_ennemi_interieur-9782707169150">enemy within</a> who would like to see territories (mainly the banlieues) and institutions (such as shools and hospitals) governed by the particular laws of a religious group, and not the universal laws of the national community.</p>
<h2>Separatism or disadvantage?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.rfi.fr/fr/france/20180616-etude-ocde-six-generations-necessaires-sortir-pauvrete">According to an OECD study, it takes no less than six generations</a> before an individual from the poorest categories can emerge from poverty in France.</p>
<p>Muslims, being predominantly members of these categories – both for historical reasons linked to colonial and migratory history and for sociological reasons linked to the <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/societe/article/2020/01/08/une-etude-montre-des-discriminations-a-l-embauche-significatives-en-fonction-de-l-origine_6025227_3224.html">discrimination they face</a> – are directly affected by social and educational inequalities.</p>
<p>The law proposes greater scrutiny over families’ decision to home school their children. But initiatives to remove children from school among Muslim families could be attributed not so much to a desire to separate from the Republic for religious purpose, as to a desire to find an alternative to the endemic educational failures in working class neighbourhoods of France, as shown by the repeated conclusions of the <a href="http://www.cnesco.fr/fr/inegalites-sociales/">National Council for the Evaluation of the School System</a>.</p>
<p>Following the example of <a href="https://calmann-levy.fr/livre/la-condition-noire-9782702138076">“ black condition ” described by French historian Pap Ndiaye</a>, Muslim populations in France could be seen as sharing a “Muslim condition”. The concept of condition encompasses that of ethnic, cultural or social belonging without falling into the biological or homogenising aspects of the terms “community” or “race”.</p>
<p>In this case, “the Muslim condition” cannot be reduced to the sole question of religiosity, radical or not, but refers to a common social, economic or even spatial experience of a minority.</p>
<p>In other words, a person with an “Arab-Muslim” sounding name or one who comes from North Africa – thus racialised as “Arab” – will be <a href="https://www.cairn.info/islamophobie-comment-les-elites-francaises--9782707189462-page-25.htm">assigned to the Muslim condition</a>, whether they are religious or not.</p>
<p>Consequently, behaviour stigmatised as “separatist” could be understood not as a sign of religious radicalism, but as a strategy aimed at reducing the social inequalities suffered by people of this “Muslim condition”, the extent of which has only been highlighted by the <a href="https://www.parismatch.com/Actu/Societe/Covid-etat-d-urgence-en-Seine-Saint-Denis-1736915">pandemic</a>.</p>
<h2>How the bill could backfire</h2>
<p>Adopting policies that restrict religious freedoms in this context are inappropriate and could even be counterproductive, by validating the radicalised narrative that France is “the enemy of Islam”.</p>
<p>The measures announced in the bill extending “neutrality” to people who work for private contractors of a public service reinforce existing infringements on <a href="https://journals.openedition.org/questionsdecommunication/12107">the religious freedom of Muslim women who wear headscarves</a>.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/03/france-crackdown-76-mosques-suspected-separatism">closure of mosques</a>, which began in 2020 and will be easier to do under the new law, seem unfounded when we know that very few of the <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/religions/article/2013/05/31/la-radicalisation-dans-les-mosquees-est-devenue-quasiment-impossible_6002478_1653130.html">perpetrators of terrorist acts were radicalised in French mosques</a>.</p>
<p>In targeting Islam in this way, the government risks creating religious deserts for Muslims by closing local places of worship in a religious landscape saturated <a href="https://www.fayard.fr/documents-temoignages/la-question-musulmane-en-france-9782213682488">by demand</a>, thus undermining freedom of worship as guaranteed in Article 1 of the Law of 1905, also known as the principle of “laicité”, or secularism.</p>
<p>The law against separatism could thus weaken the Republican principles it claims to strengthen and further exclude an already marginalised population by denying its members any form of social visibility or the right to mobilise, either individually or as a collective.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/162705/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fatima Khemilat ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>The term “separatist” has a long history in France. Now it’s being used to target Muslims in a new law.Fatima Khemilat, Chargée de cours, doctorante à Sciences Po Aix, Université Paris-Est Créteil Val de Marne (UPEC)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1637192021-07-06T19:27:52Z2021-07-06T19:27:52ZSeparatist or radically inclusive? What NZ’s He Puapua report really says about the Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/409793/original/file-20210706-13-1ryfhgm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5160%2C3406&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Tino Rangatiratanga flag symbolises Māori self-determination as expressed in the Treaty of Waitangi.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">GettyImages</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>For many New Zealanders, <a href="https://www.tpk.govt.nz/docs/undrip/tpk-undrip-he-puapua.pdf">He Puapua</a> came shrouded in controversy from the moment it became public knowledge earlier this year. </p>
<p>Released only when opposition parties learned of its existence, the report on “realising” the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples was labelled a “<a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/125016785/prime-minister-jacinda-ardern-says-judith-collins-raises-separatism-claims-due-to-low-polling">separatist</a>” plan by National Party leader Judith Collins. </p>
<p>“Quite clearly there is a plan,” <a href="https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2021/05/he-puapua-wasn-t-released-over-concern-it-could-be-misconstrued-as-government-policy-jacinda-ardern.html">Collins said</a>, “it is being implemented, and we are going to call it out.”</p>
<p>But He Puapua is not a plan and it’s not government policy. It’s a collection of ideas drafted by people who are not members of the government. To understand its real significance we need to examine how and why it was commissioned in the first place.</p>
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<h2>Self-determination for all</h2>
<p>He Puapua’s origins can be traced back to 2007 when the UN adopted the <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/indigenouspeoples/wp-content/uploads/sites/19/2018/11/UNDRIP_E_web.pdf">Universal Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples</a>, confirming the human rights affirmed in all previous international declarations, covenants and agreements belonged to Indigenous peoples as much as anybody else. </p>
<p>It confirmed the right to self-determination belongs to everybody. Thus, in New Zealand, Pakeha have the right to self-determination, and so do Māori.</p>
<p>At the time, 143 UN member states <a href="https://www.un.org/press/en/2007/ga10612.doc.htm">voted for the declaration</a>, including the major European colonial powers of Britain, Belgium, France, Spain, Portugal and the Netherlands. </p>
<p>There were 11 abstentions, but four states voted against — Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United States. They were especially concerned about the scope of Article 28(2) which <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/indigenouspeoples/wp-content/uploads/sites/19/2018/11/UNDRIP_E_web.pdf">deals with compensation</a> for confiscated or other dishonestly acquired land:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Unless otherwise freely agreed upon by the peoples concerned, compensation shall take the form of lands, territories and resources equal in quality, size and legal status or of monetary compensation or other appropriate redress.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>New Zealand was worried this article would justify returning much more Māori land than was already occurring under te Tiriti o Waitangi (<a href="https://nzhistory.govt.nz/politics/treaty/the-treaty-in-brief">Treaty of Waitangi</a>) settlements. </p>
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<h2>Future aspirations</h2>
<p>However, the phrase “other appropriate redress” is open to less restrictive interpretation. In 2010, the National-led government decided the declaration did not threaten freehold private property rights. Then-Prime Minister <a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/national-govt-support-un-rights-declaration">John Key argued</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>While the declaration is non-binding, it both affirms accepted rights and establishes future aspirations. My objective is to build better relationships between Māori and the Crown, and I believe that supporting the declaration is a small but significant step in that direction.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Australia, Canada and the United States also <a href="https://press.anu.edu.au/publications/%E2%80%98we-are-all-here-stay%E2%80%99">changed their positions</a>. In 2019, New Zealand’s Labour-led government established a working group to advise on developing a plan for achieving the aims of the UN declaration. These aims are not just concerned with land rights, but also with things like health, education, economic growth, broadcasting, criminal justice and political participation.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-authority-could-transform-maori-health-but-only-if-its-a-leader-not-a-partner-159425">New authority could transform Māori health, but only if it's a leader, not a partner</a>
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</em>
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<h2>Not government policy</h2>
<p>He Puapua, the group’s report, was provided to the government in 2019. However, the government didn’t accept a recommendation that the report be promptly released for public discussion. According to Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, this was due to the risk it could be “<a href="https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2021/05/he-puapua-wasn-t-released-over-concern-it-could-be-misconstrued-as-government-policy-jacinda-ardern.html">misconstrued</a>” as government policy.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, it has now been released and the government appears to have accepted the recommendation that Māori should be actively involved in drafting a plan. </p>
<p>Collins also objected to the report’s description of this involvement as “co-design”. What she can’t say, however, is that including people in policy making is separatist. Inclusion is an essential democratic practice.</p>
<p>He Puapua also uses co-design to describe Māori involvement in the delivery of social services and the protection of the natural environment. This involvement isn’t new, but He Puapua says it should be strengthened. </p>
<p>And while there may be arguments against this kind of inclusivity (for example, co-design is a weaker authority than the <a href="https://maoridictionary.co.nz/search?&keywords=rangatiratanga">rangatiratanga</a> affirmed in <a href="https://nzhistory.govt.nz/politics/treaty/read-the-treaty/maori-text">te Tiriti</a>), calling it separatist is an error of fact.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-crown-is-maori-too-citizenship-sovereignty-and-the-treaty-of-waitangi-111168">The Crown is Māori too - citizenship, sovereignty and the Treaty of Waitangi</a>
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<h2>Securing rangatiratanga</h2>
<p>Rangatiratanga describes an independent political authority and is consistent with international human rights norms. It has gradually influenced public administration in New Zealand under successive governments over more than 40 years. </p>
<p>He Puapua says there are human rights arguments for strengthening and securing rangatiratanga.</p>
<p>In fact, the UN <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/indigenouspeoples/wp-content/uploads/sites/19/2018/11/UNDRIP_E_web.pdf">declaration</a> may help clarify how independent authority might work in practice, especially in the context of the Crown’s right to govern — which the declaration also affirms. </p>
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<h2>Separatism versus sameness</h2>
<p>He Puapua’s potentially most controversial idea involves creating “a senate or upper house in Parliament that could scrutinise legislation for compliance with te Tiriti and/or the Declaration”.</p>
<p>There are reasons to think this won’t get far. The government has already rejected it, and the idea was raised in just one paragraph of a 106-page report. But its inclusive intent shows why “separatism versus sameness” is the wrong way to frame the debate. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-road-to-reconciliation-starts-with-the-un-declaration-on-the-rights-of-indigenous-peoples-122305">The road to reconciliation starts with the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples</a>
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<p>What it means to ensure <em>all</em>, and not just <em>some</em>, people may exercise the right to self-determination requires deeper thought. In that sense, He Puapua might usefully be read in conjunction with British Columbia’s <a href="https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/government/ministries-organizations/ministries/indigenous-relations-reconciliation/declaration_act_action_plan_for_consultation.pdf">draft action plan</a> on the UN declaration.</p>
<p>Released only last month for public consultation, the plan coincided with the Canadian federal parliament passing legislation committing to implement the declaration. The British Columbian plan addressed four themes:</p>
<ul>
<li>self-determination and inherent right of self-government </li>
<li>title and rights of Indigenous peoples </li>
<li>ending Indigenous-specific racism and discrimination </li>
<li>social, cultural and economic well-being.</li>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/included-but-still-marginalised-indigenous-voices-still-missing-in-media-stories-on-indigenous-affairs-163426">Included, but still marginalised: Indigenous voices still missing in media stories on Indigenous affairs</a>
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<h2>He Puapua in practice</h2>
<p>Some of the plan’s specific measures are not relevant to New Zealand and some may be contested. But its important general principles draw out some of the basic attributes of liberal inclusivity. </p>
<p>Those include ensuring people can live according to their own values, manage their own resources, participate in public life free of racism and discrimination, and define for themselves what it means to enjoy social, cultural and economic well-being. </p>
<p>British Columbia’s far-reaching proposals can inform New Zealand’s debate about what He Puapua’s proposals might mean in practice.</p>
<p>As I try to show in my book <a href="https://press.anu.edu.au/publications/%E2%80%98we-are-all-here-stay%E2%80%99">‘We Are All Here to Stay’: citizenship, sovereignty and the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples</a>, there are ways state authority can be arranged to reject the colonial assumption that some people are less worthy of the right to self-determination than others. </p>
<p>This requires radical inclusivity.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/163719/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dominic O'Sullivan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Contrary to some claims, He Puapua is not a ‘plan’ and it doesn’t advocate for ‘separatism’. Rather, it invites us to imagine more inclusive political and constitutional arrangements.Dominic O'Sullivan, Adjunct Professor, Faculty of Health and Environmental Sciences, Auckland University of Technology and Professor of Political Science, Charles Sturt UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1292612020-01-06T12:07:10Z2020-01-06T12:07:10ZChina can still salvage ‘one country, two systems’ in Hong Kong – here’s how<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308539/original/file-20200105-11951-tkqdnb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=25%2C34%2C5699%2C3699&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Pro-democracy protesters take part in massive rally to usher in the new year.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/people-take-part-in-a-pro-democracy-march-in-hong-kong-on-news-photo/1191131347?adppopup=true">Isaac Lawrence/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Authorities in Hong Kong may have hoped to start 2020 by putting a turbulent period of sustained, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/17/world/asia/hong-kong-protests-chinese-soldiers.html">often violent protests</a> behind them. </p>
<p>Instead <a href="https://apnews.com/58ecae47e09c7904e8653cffeae49c31">hundreds of thousands of protesters</a> ushered in the new year by taking to the streets. Around 400 were arrested as protesters continued their push for political reform on the densely populated island.</p>
<p>The clash between the government and demonstrators is now seven months long and has served to further erode <a href="https://www.hkupop.hku.hk/english/popexpress/trust/conocts/poll/conocts_poll_chart.html">Hong Kongers’ trust</a> in China’s commitment to the “one country, two systems” formula. </p>
<p>Under that principle, the region was granted a <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-49633862">degree of autonomy</a> over its own matters in 1997. But a perception that Beijing is increasingly imposing its authority has led not only to a more <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-hong-kong-protesters-have-turned-militant-and-more-strategic-and-this-unnerves-beijing-121106">militant protest movement</a>, but one that is <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/27/opinion/hong-kong-umbrella.html">eyeing separation</a> from the mainland.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=2LC1d3QAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">a political scientist who has closely followed political developments in Hong Kong</a> over the last decade, I have watched trust in Beijing ebb away during the sustained unrest.</p>
<p>If China wants to correct this course and convince Hong Kongers that their best hope lies in autonomy rather than independence, then I believe it must permit genuine democracy in the region.</p>
<h2>Cycle of unrest</h2>
<p>The people of Hong Kong <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-18/hong-kong-fighting-for-democracy-british-past-chinese-future/11216400">have not had much of a say</a> in their own destiny. </p>
<p>Not only did they lack political power as a colony of the British, but they also weren’t consulted in the drafting of the 1984 <a href="https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-8616">Sino-British Joint Declaration</a> that set the terms for the 1997 handover of the territory from the United Kingdom to the People’s Republic of China. Nevertheless, that agreement offered an implicit bargain to Hong Kongers: They would submit to Beijing’s sovereignty in return for the promise of a “high degree of autonomy” on the basis of “one country, two systems.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308413/original/file-20200103-11929-rq3uvb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308413/original/file-20200103-11929-rq3uvb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308413/original/file-20200103-11929-rq3uvb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308413/original/file-20200103-11929-rq3uvb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308413/original/file-20200103-11929-rq3uvb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308413/original/file-20200103-11929-rq3uvb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308413/original/file-20200103-11929-rq3uvb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Despite Hong Kong being promised more than a seat on the bus in 1997, Beijing remains behind the wheel.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/AP-I-HKG-HK102-HONG-KONG-HANDOVER/0fa6facba8e0da11af9f0014c2589dfb/139/0">AP Photo/Mike Fiala</a></span>
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<p>Over the past two decades, major <a href="https://multimedia.scmp.com/infographics/news/hong-kong/article/3016815/hong-kong-protest-city/index.html">outbreaks of unrest</a> in Hong Kong have followed attempts by Beijing to impose unwanted measures that violate this bargain. Large-scale protests beat back Beijing-directed legislative proposals dealing with <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/hongkong/1435551/Hong-Kong-leader-abandons-fight-to-pass-anti-subversion-laws.html">sedition</a> in 2003, <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/article/1032535/protest-against-national-education-end-after-government-climbdown">national education</a> in 2012 and <a href="https://www.hongkongfp.com/2019/12/23/explainer-hong-kongs-five-demands-withdrawal-extradition-bill/">extradition</a> last year. The <a href="https://qz.com/1714897/what-was-hong-kongs-umbrella-movement-about/">Umbrella Movement</a> protests of 2014 succeeded in stymieing Beijing’s proposed revisions to Hong Kong’s system for selecting its chief executive, but protesters’ demands for universal suffrage and an open nomination process were rejected.</p>
<p>Many Hong Kongers <a href="https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3025385/china-broke-its-promises-hong-kong-thats-why-protest-movement-back">consider this interference</a> a violation of the promised autonomy built into the terms of the Joint Declaration and the <a href="https://www.basiclaw.gov.hk/pda/en/facts/">Basic Law</a>, Hong Kong’s mini-constitution. This interference reinforces fears that the city will lose its autonomy entirely after 2047, the end point of commitments made under the Joint Declaration.</p>
<p>With only limited and inadequate democratic mechanisms at their disposal, Hong Kongers have developed a vibrant and increasingly militant protest culture as a primary means for exercising political influence. </p>
<h2>Autonomy or independence?</h2>
<p>Efforts to steer Hong Kong toward greater integration with the mainland have backfired, <a href="https://www.hkupop.hku.hk/english/popexpress/trust/conocts/halfyr/conocts_halfyr_chart.html">undermining trust</a> in Beijing’s promise of a “high degree of autonomy.” </p>
<p>The result is an ongoing cycle of radicalization. The focal point for many protesters has moved away from any one particular issue to focus on the fundamental status of Hong Kong’s relationship to China. </p>
<p>Growing numbers of people are questioning why they should keep their side of the bargain – accepting Beijing’s sovereignty over Hong Kong. According to a recent <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-protests-poll-exclusive/exclusive-hong-kongers-support-protester-demands-minority-wants-independence-from-china-reuters-poll-idUSKBN1YZ0VK">Reuters poll</a>, 17% of Hong Kongers express outright support for independence from China, while another 20% express dissatisfaction with the “one country, two systems” model. Moreover, 59% of respondents said they supported the recent protests and over one-third had themselves attended a protest.</p>
<p>According to a <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/1994198/more-young-hongkongers-back-independence-and-are-less">separate survey</a>, support for eventual independence among young people approaches 40%. Many young people have also come to <a href="https://www.hkupop.hku.hk/english/release/release1594.html">reject</a> any <a href="http://www.theasanforum.org/analyzing-the-relationship-between-identity-and-democratization-in-taiwan-and-hong-kong-in-the-shadow-of-china/">“Chinese” identity</a> in favor of a “Hong Kong” identity.</p>
<p>The depth of discontent among Hong Kongers was reflected in the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/nov/24/hong-kong-residents-turn-up-for-local-elections-in-record-numbers">District Council elections</a> held on Nov. 24. These low-level posts have traditionally been dominated by pro-Beijing political parties. The recent elections, however, brought a record turnout with pro-democratic parties winning close to 90% of contested positions.</p>
<h2>Beijing’s miscalculation</h2>
<p>To blunt the growth of separatist sentiment in Hong Kong, Beijing must tackle what social scientists call a “<a href="http://gametheory101.com/courses/international-relations-101/commitment-problems/">commitment problem</a>.” In any negotiation, each side will cooperate only if they believe that the other side is both willing and able to carry out any commitments made as part of the bargain. If either side believes the other side’s commitments lack credibility, then cooperation fails. </p>
<p>What China needs to do now is show that it is committed to respecting the autonomy promises embodied in the Joint Declaration and the Basic Law.</p>
<p>I believe the best way to do that is for Beijing to stop manipulating governance of the city. As long as selection of the <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/26/hong-kong-chief-executive-election-need-know/">chief executive</a> and a majority of the <a href="https://www.google.com/search?client=opera&q=hong+kong+legislative+council&sourceid=opera&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8">Legislative Council</a> lies in Beijing’s hands, it will be difficult for the mainland to resist meddling in Hong Kong’s affairs and for Hong Kongers to feel that autonomy offers them any real say over their fate.</p>
<p>In other words, Beijing could undercut calls for independence and interrupt the cycle of mass protests by offering Hong Kongers the ability to select their leaders through free and fair elections.</p>
<p>Beijing badly miscalculated in 2014 when it proposed electoral reforms that fell far short of the demands of Hong Kong’s <a href="https://thediplomat.com/tag/hong-kong-pan-democrats/">pan-democratic camp</a>, a coalition of parties that advocate universal suffrage. As a consequence, older, mainstream leaders lost control of the protest movement to younger, more <a href="https://www.scmp.com/topics/hong-kong-localism-and-independence">militant activists</a>. By 2019, young radicals resorted to violent <a href="https://qz.com/1687129/hong-kongs-radical-protesters-figure-out-next-steps/">street actions</a> coupled with harsh anti-Beijing rhetoric. Yet a move toward democracy could still calm the waters provided the process allowed for genuine and effective local participation.</p>
<p>This proposal may be <a href="https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/political-reform-in-hong-kong-unlikely-even-after-pan-democrats-landslide-victory-say">far-fetched</a>. Indeed, some accounts suggest that leaders in Beijing are <a href="https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3037579/beijings-plans-tighten-its-grip-hong-kong-could-spell-end-chinas">laying plans</a> to move in the opposite direction by taking more direct control over Hong Kong’s political and legal institutions. Moreover, <a href="https://www.pri.org/stories/2014-10-01/what-beijing-really-fears-hong-kong-protests-spreading-across-country">Beijing worries</a> that full democracy in Hong Kong might lead to demands for the same elsewhere in China.</p>
<p>If a democratic solution to China’s Hong Kong problem appears unattractive to Beijing, the alternatives may be worse. The current cycle of provocation, protest, radicalization and rising separatism can lead to only one eventual result: a violent crackdown that would damage China’s reputation and leave it in costly occupation of a sullen and defiant population for a generation or more.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129261/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Skidmore does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Fears that Beijing will renege on autonomy promises is only encouraging calls for independence from mainland China.David Skidmore, Professor of Political Science, Drake UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1063292018-11-05T05:22:10Z2018-11-05T05:22:10ZNew Caledonia votes to stay with France this time, but independence supporters take heart<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/243827/original/file-20181105-83629-14vrjt8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Voting is not compulsory in New Caledonia, but nonetheless 80.63% turned out to vote in the independence referendum.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The November 4 referendum in New Caledonia was a breathtaking example of democracy in action, with new consequences for the French territory, France and our region.</p>
<p>The vote had been long-deferred, <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-new-caledonias-independence-referendum-and-how-it-could-impact-the-region-105387">long-awaited</a> and for some, long-feared. It took place peacefully, a major and poignant achievement that was unimaginable 30 years ago, before the Matignon/Noumea Accords were signed. They were designed to end civil war, promising the hand-over of a number of autonomies, to be followed by this referendum. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.lnc.nc/article/nouvelle-caledonie/referendum-2018/politique/large-victoire-du-non-mais-le-oui-a-surpris">result favoured staying with France</a> by <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-05/new-caledonia-rejects-independence-from-france/10464248">56.4% to 43.6%</a>. Key characteristics were the strong turnout, especially by young Kanaks, the relatively strong vote for independence, and bitter division between the two sides.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-new-caledonias-independence-referendum-and-how-it-could-impact-the-region-105387">Explainer: New Caledonia's independence referendum, and how it could impact the region</a>
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<p>Voting queues were long, with many waiting two hours to vote. Voting is not compulsory in New Caledonia, and the turnout was an extraordinary 80.63% of those eligible to vote (all Indigenous Kanaks, and a large proportion of those from other communities with longstanding residence in New Caledonia). This is the highest in recent history, with levels at the last French national elections 37% (2017) and provincial elections 67% (2014).</p>
<p>As <a href="https://la1ere.francetvinfo.fr/nouvellecaledonie/emmanuel-macron-exprime-sa-fierte-que-majorite-caledoniens-aient-choisi-france-646136.html">French President Emmanuel Macron noted</a> hours after the polls closed, France has fulfilled its promise and delivered a transparent process, legitimised by the unprecedented high turnout, the attendance of 13 UN observers and a Pacific Islands Forum observer team.</p>
<h2>What does it mean for New Caledonia?</h2>
<p>This relatively close result is probably the best all round for stability. The campaign has been bitter, and even commentary between leaders in television coverage of the results saw strong denunciation, particularly by loyalists.</p>
<p>While potentially stoking fear among loyalists for the future, the sizeable independence vote nonetheless may give pause to their tendency to triumphalism, challenging opinion polls and their own belief that they would win at least 60% and <a href="http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2018/10/16/01002-20181016ARTFIG00285-philippe-gomes-invite-du-talk.php">possibly 70% of the vote</a>. </p>
<p>In their confidence, just days before the vote, the loyalists declared that with a massive win, they would seek <a href="http://outremers360.com/fil-info-appli/referendumnc2018-les-republicains-caledoniens-pour-un-statut-ancre-dans-la-france/">to reverse the Noumea Accord guarantee of a second and potentially third referendum</a>, an inflammatory step for independence supporters.</p>
<p>For independence leaders, the result vindicates their careful strategy of negotiating under the Noumea Accord for potentially two more votes in 2020 and 2022 in the event of a “no” vote, automatic participation for all Indigenous Kanaks, and mobilising the young.</p>
<p>Young Kanaks voted in large numbers, peacefully, and apparently for independence. This was so even in mainly European Noumea, which returned a surprising 26.29% “yes” vote. </p>
<p>With natural population growth, their numbers will increase as 18-year-olds become eligible to vote in 2020 and 2022. In contrast, the number of voters from other long-standing communities will vary little during this time-frame. </p>
<p>Independence leaders can also work to improve the vote from Kanak island communities, whose turnout remained at traditional lower levels, and those who may have responded this time to one independence party’s call for a boycott.</p>
<h2>What does it mean for France?</h2>
<p>The relatively close result means both sides may be more likely to participate constructively in the ongoing dialogue process set up by France.</p>
<p>Macron has urged New Caledonians to overcome division and continue the 30-year process “in favour of peace”, emphasising dialogue. He referred to a future within France and the Indo-Pacific. Prime Minister Édouard Philippe visited the territory on November 5 to continue dialogue and urge calm.</p>
<p>The task of France remains delicate: to manage, impartially, a process respecting the positions of both sides. It’s complicated by the fact the 43.6% favouring independence are largely Indigenous Kanaks. They are not leaving, they have regional support, and their interests must be considered in any long-term future.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/rebel-music-the-protest-songs-of-new-caledonias-independence-referendum-105580">Rebel music: the protest songs of New Caledonia's independence referendum</a>
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<p>On the positive side, positions canvassed by independence and loyalist parties alike threw up <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/new-caledonia-future-takes-shape">areas of shared interest</a> that can form the basis of future cooperation. Provincial elections in May 2019 will clarify their support, but risk being undermined by extremist parties on both sides.</p>
<h2>What are the implications for the region?</h2>
<p>The result guarantees continued regional and international interest in the next steps. Reports of the Pacific Islands Forum and UN observer teams will be considered by their organisations. New Caledonia continues to be represented by the pro-independence Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front (FLNKS) at the <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/melanesian-spearhead-group-what-it-and-what-does-it-do">Melanesian Spearhead Group</a> (MSG).</p>
<p>Separatists in Bougainville (Papua New Guinea), set for their own independence referendum next year, and West Papua, both the subject of MSG attention, will take heart.</p>
<p>Macron’s invocation of his Indo-Pacific vision engaging New Caledonia specifically to counter China gives a new edge to the interest in the referendum process by regional countries and partners.</p>
<p>Australia, meanwhile, will continue to retain a close interest in stability in our near neighbour, respecting the process while continuing cooperation with France.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/106329/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Denise Fisher does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The loyalists won the referendum vote this time, but the result was close enough to give hope to pro-independence supporters for votes in 2020 and 2022.Denise Fisher, Visiting Fellow, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/920042018-02-20T11:40:03Z2018-02-20T11:40:03ZUkraine is still on the edge, despite all efforts to stabilise it<p>Since protests, separatism and foreign intervention began to break Ukraine apart in 2014, it has been struggling to stay in control of its future. And the struggle is far from over. No fewer than four peace agreements have been struck: the <a href="https://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2016/09/economist-explains-7">two Minsk agreements</a>, the so-called <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/22/world/europe/ukraine.html">Kyiv Agreement</a>, and the <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27072351">Geneva Declaration</a>. </p>
<p>But even after all this work, the conflict is fundamentally unresolved, and chances of a fifth agreement, or even re-commitment to the existing ones, are <a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-germany-security-ukraine-meeting/four-way-meeting-on-ukraine-called-off-msc-spokesman-idUKKCN1G01V0">fading</a> amid <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/munich-security-conference-rancor-ukraine-iran-russia-ischinger-lavrov-gabriel/29046944.html.">heightened diplomatic tensions</a> </p>
<p>This is worse than a stalemate: for all the attempts to reach a settlement, Ukraine is still in <a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-germany-security-osce-ukraine-crisis/osce-calls-for-effort-to-jumpstart-ukraine-peace-process-idUKKCN1G020Q">real danger</a> of slipping back into violence.</p>
<p>The three-year-old ceasefire is already being violated <a href="http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/reports">almost daily</a>. More than 2m people continue to suffer <a href="http://www.internal-displacement.org/countries/ukraine">forced displacement within Ukraine</a> and beyond the country’s borders, <a href="http://reporting.unhcr.org/node/2551">especially in Russia</a>; the constitutional and institutional reform project supposed to resolve the country’s problems remains <a href="http://carnegieendowment.org/specialprojects/Ukraine/">mired</a> in a morass of <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2018-02-15/can-ukraine-win-its-war-corruption">corruption</a>, poor transparency and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/18/saakashvili-supporters-march-in-kiev-calling-for-president-to-quit">popular disillusionment</a>.</p>
<p>To add to the complexity, the two sides in Ukraine are internally fragmented. The eastern separatists are not one uniform force, as became obvious in an <a href="http://carnegie.ru/commentary/74864">abortive coup</a> in Luhansk in November 2017. Nor do political elites in Kyiv see eye-to-eye on how to deal with the conflict. At the moment, those who want to cut off the two separatist-controlled and arguably Russian-occupied territories in eastern Ukraine seem to have the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-42741778">upper hand</a>. This is particularly evident from the passage of <a href="https://helsinki.org.ua/en/articles/uhhru-s-notice-regarding-the-adoption-of-draft-law-no-7163-by-the-parliament-of-ukraine/">Law No. 7163</a> by the Ukrainian parliament on January 18, 2018, which fails to live up, by ommission, to Ukraine’s international obligations under the fourth <a href="https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/applic/ihl/ihl.nsf/INTRO/380?OpenDocument">Geneva Convention</a> on the Protection of Civilian Persons in Time of War. </p>
<p>And on top of all this, there are plenty of outside forces at work. </p>
<h2>A toxic blend</h2>
<p>The situation in Ukraine is a “<a href="http://stefanwolff.com/talks/ukraine-a-blended-conflict-in-an-antagonistically-penetrated-region/">blended</a>” conflict, one in which multiple actors, structures and other factors are involved at local, national, regional and global levels. The Kyiv government’s conflict with separatists in the east has at various points involved both <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2017-08-01/how-ukraine-reined-its-militias">pro-Ukrainian militias</a> and on the separatist side “<a href="https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/watch-out-for-little-green-men/">little green men</a>” and “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2014/08/28/russians-troops-fighting-in-ukraine-naw-just-on-vacation/">vacationers</a>” from Russia.</p>
<p>A conflict like the crisis in Ukraine that is “penetrated” by outside actors, becomes ever more complex if the outsiders are, or become, mutual antagonists with their own interests at heart. Many are willing to exploit and stoke local tensions, and are highly adept at leveraging their involvement in conflicts to bargain with other players, whether local, regional or global.</p>
<p>So it goes in Ukraine, where a local conflict has been turned into yet another arena where other regional and global conflicts can be played out. And it is against this background that we can “use” past conflict management efforts in eastern Ukraine as a prism on the future. </p>
<h2>Back to square one</h2>
<p>In our own <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/1060586X.2018.1425083">recent research</a>, based on extensive fieldwork, interviews and focus groups, we found that neither Russia nor the West have ceded any ground on the Donbas issue, and nor are they likely to. So long as Ukraine remains a significant prize for both sides in this contested neighbourhood, the volatile status quo looks likely to continue.</p>
<p>Suggestions of a “<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/3385bf02-3661-11e7-bce4-9023f8c0fd2e">grand bargain</a>” between the US and Russia involving Crimea and a range of other issues, including Syria, are unlikely to come to anything. So far, both countries and their allies have successfully compartmentalised their interactions in these different arenas, where they are variously cooperating and in confrontation.</p>
<p>Minsk II, at least in its political and constitutional dimensions, will remain unimplementable. The government in Kyiv has proved unable (and unwilling) to implement meaningful and sustainable reforms for the benefit of all its citizens, rather than for a powerful and wealthy few; it does not have the political will, capital or capacity to deliver on most of the agreement’s key points. The separatists in Donbas have no incentive to comply with a settlement that “promises” them far less than they currently have.</p>
<p>In Ukraine, both domestic conflict parties and their external allies are working to entrench the current situation, which assures them of at least some degree of control over parts of Ukraine and prevents the country as a whole from drifting completely into the orbit of either Russia or the West. That this approach has for the moment kept the country from collapsing into full-blown conflict apparently makes it a “success”, regardless of its true sustainability. </p>
<p>But the real problems are far too deep for these sorts of strategies to really work. The dynamics playing out in Ukraine are the result of three interconnected factors: Western overconfidence since the end of the Cold War, Russia’s increasing determination to reassert itself as a global superpower, and the inability and unwillingness of countries like Ukraine to reform and strengthen their fragile institutions, which might help insulate them from external interference. Almost 30 years after the end of the Cold War, it seems we’re back to square one – and yet again, the heavy costs of this geopolitical confrontation will be borne by the people living on either side of the front line.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/92004/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stefan Wolff receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council of the UK. He is a past recipient of grants from the British Academy, the NATO Science for Peace Programme, the EU Framework Programmes 6 and 7 and Horizon 2020, as well as the EU's Jean Monnet Programme. He is an Associate Fellow of the Royal United Services Institute, a member of the Steering Committee of the OSCE Network of Think Tanks and Academic Institutions, and of the Advisory Council of the European Centre for Minority Issues.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tatyana Malyarenko receives funding from the Jean Monnet Programme of the European Union and Leibniz-Institute for East and Southeast European Studies (IOS Regensburg). </span></em></p>Four peace agreements have been struck to try and keep Ukraine on an even keel, but none of them has resolved the conflict’s fundamental problems.Stefan Wolff, Professor of International Security, University of BirminghamTetyana Malyarenko, Professor of International Relations, National University Odesa Law AcademyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/631672016-12-06T09:59:20Z2016-12-06T09:59:20ZUkraine peace plan follows a familiar path – but there are potholes in the east<p>More than two years after protests that defenestrated its president and kicked off a conflict, Ukraine remains a starkly divided country, with violence still simmering in the east among Russian-backed separatists. For most of 2016, it has been trying to solve these problems through a deal struck by the leaders of <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-ukraine-peace-deal-met-with-shelling-and-suspicion-37591">Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France</a> – a plan known as as <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/11408266/Minsk-agreement-on-Ukraine-crisis-text-in-full.html">Minsk II</a>.</p>
<p>Minsk II isn’t a permanent settlement, but it contains a template for one. At its heart is a form of self-governance for territory currently controlled by pro-Russian separatists in two breakaway regions, the self-proclaimed <a href="http://www.pbs.org/newshour/updates/dispatch-ground-zero-donetsk-peoples-republic/">Donetsk</a> and <a href="https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/self-proclaimed-luhansk-peoples-republic-postpones-elections.html">Luhansk People’s Republics</a>. This is a tried-and-tested solution to separatist conflicts, but it comes with several pitfalls for international mediators to avoid as they edge Ukraine’s conflict parties closer to a permanent settlement. </p>
<p>Giving the separatists of Donetsk and Luhansk some degree of territorial autonomy follows a template that is used in separatist conflicts around the world. Depending on the circumstances, it can range from little more than ceding control over cultural and administrative matters to effectively creating a state within a state.</p>
<p>On the face of it, this is a good strategy for defusing a conflict. Granting separatists some degree of autonomy usually doesn’t require major reforms at the top of the state they want to separate from. It recognises the rights, fears and aspirations of minority groups and grants them self-determination, but it does so without endangering the territorial integrity of the state.</p>
<p>In very intense conflicts, granting territorial autonomy can also help defuse violence by recognising control of battlefields. It also means enemies don’t end up having to coexist in factional and sometimes unstable power-sharing governments. </p>
<p>Understandable, then, that peace processes around the world keep reverting to this formula. But it doesn’t always go to plan. Far from it: in my <a href="http://www.polity.co.uk/book.asp?ref=9780745680262">analysis</a> of peace agreements signed since the end of the Cold War, I’ve identified a number of serious problems. Some of these are already presenting themselves in Ukraine as Minsk II is gradually implemented – and others may be lurking down the road.</p>
<h2>Promises, promises</h2>
<p>Central governments that promise autonomy to separatists generally aren’t very good at actually delivering it. This is often thanks to domestic opposition; critics of territorial autonomy will frequently decry such a settlement as a reward for violent rebels, and as a dangerous step towards the breakup of the state.</p>
<p>A version of this has happened with Minsk II. There are deep concerns in Kiev that autonomy for the Donetsk and Luhansk “republics” will either lead to secession, or that the Russian-backed territories will remain beyond Kiev’s control. Many are also reluctant to strengthen the breakaway territories and legitimise the separatist leaders.</p>
<p>Another common problem is the use of what Henry Kissinger called “<a href="https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/when-ambiguity-is-destructive/">constructive ambiguity</a>”, the use of deliberately ambiguous wording to create extra space for negotiating parties to advance their interests. This can help them reach an agreement, but it can also create problems when it turns out that the two sides don’t agree on what powers the autonomous region should enjoy, what resources it will control, or even what its borders will be.</p>
<p>Too much ambiguity can spell serious trouble for a settlement. If the central government doesn’t grant sufficient powers to the autonomous region, it can also lead to dangerous local instability. Without sufficient capacity to govern themselves – including the capacity to defeat radical forces opposed to peace – autonomous territories can all too easily become ungovernable altogether. </p>
<p>Broken promises, whether perceived or real, cause deep resentment, which can in turn beget renewed violence. If local violence crops up again, it can spread beyond the region and ultimately undermine the legitimacy and stability of the entire peace agreement. These sorts of problems have contributed to renewed violence in the Philippines’ <a href="https://theconversation.com/philippines-hopes-new-president-can-fashion-peace-from-a-war-of-many-sides-60606">Mindanao</a> region and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/31/israel-palestine-violence-knife-attacks-west-bank-gaza">Palestine</a>.</p>
<p>But local capacity isn’t just about devolved powers and adequate resources. Rebel forces come in all shapes and sizes, and some will be better placed to govern than others. Effective rule depends on legitimacy and requires reforms. International actors can help encourage and fund them – and a more inclusive settlement.</p>
<h2>Don’t forget human rights</h2>
<p>Most peace processes are fairly narrow; they typically only involve actors who have the power to wreck an agreement, and shut out everyone less powerful. The rationale is that the fewer parties are involved, the easier it is for international mediators to strike a deal. </p>
<p>The problem is that narrow negotiations often produce narrow settlements. Rights end up granted to a dominant minority group at the expense of less powerful groups – and indeed, of anyone who opposes the armed movement in control of the place where they live. Separatist leaders might present themselves as the true representatives of their community, but these sorts of claims are often backed up with coercion rather than genuine legitimacy.</p>
<p>Without effective human rights provisions, minorities in an autonomous territories can start to feel like they’re being treated as second-class citizens. This can entrench division and stir up new instability. It also increases the risk of an unreformed armed movement clinging onto power. Such movements are, as noted above, not very good at governing and this could lead to instability. </p>
<p>None of this is inevitable. No peace agreement is perfect, and Minsk II certainly isn’t. But it is possible to improve upon the model, if those negotiating it are aware of the potential pitfalls and dangers.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/63167/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nina Caspersen has received funding from the British Academy and the Economic and Social Research Council </span></em></p>Ukraine is implementing a deal to placate its restive separatists – but other countries have had trouble with similar strategies.Nina Caspersen, Professor, Department of Politics, University of YorkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/251012014-04-02T05:04:48Z2014-04-02T05:04:48ZCatalonia deadlocked as nationalists plan new offensive<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/45306/original/fxbtt8vn-1396358144.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Catalans want an independence referendum in November</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/97352149@N00/9724515227/in/photolist-fPjFzD-fPBaGL-fPm22r-fPkg6x-fPjF52-fPBJjL-fPBacN-fPBbb1-fPB3Ku-fPjrdR-fPBRHG-fPAW7j-fPB9Ey-fPB6KS-fPk2Mn-fPjEGV-fPjsGT-fPBPuA-fPjGCz-fPAVcU-fPjoBa-fPjp2K-fPjyqB-fPB3ko-fPjDwT-fPkN7g-fPBbDf-fPAXko-fPjnGV-fPjwhR-fPjE9R-fPjmRe-fPkanF-fPjrE6-fPBf13-fPjvtM-fPjvTX-fPCtf7-fPBHLU-fPB8sf-fPAYdq-fPjqNr-fPkLxp-fPjtav-fPAXQb-fPjxoH-fPAZUs-fPka74-5kG2ji-7VLHGx-4aXok9">Liz Castro</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Welcome to Breaking Nations, a series of articles that examines independence movements across the globe ahead of the Scottish referendum in September. To begin, Dani Cetrà gives us the view from Catalonia.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy insists that a referendum on Catalonian independence is not going to be held. But that didn’t stop Artur Mas, president of the Catalan Government and head of centre-right party <a href="http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/135719/Convergence-and-Union">Convergence and Union</a> (CiU), announcing <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/dec/12/catalonia-independence-referendum-madrid-block">an agreement</a> with the leaders of the <a href="http://www.esquerra.cat/language/english">Republican Left of Catalonia</a> (ERC), the <a href="http://europeangreens.eu/parties/iniciativa-catalunya-verds-icv">Initiative for Catalonia Greens</a> (IC-V) and the radical left-wing <a href="http://cup.cat/">Popular Unity Candidates</a> (CUP) concerning the date and the questions for a vote. </p>
<p>Mas announced that the voting would be held on 9 November 2014 and that the following questions would be posed to Catalans: “Do you want Catalonia to be a state?”, and for those respondents answering yes, “Do you want Catalonia to be an independent state?”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/45307/original/xdzmwwhx-1396358298.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/45307/original/xdzmwwhx-1396358298.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45307/original/xdzmwwhx-1396358298.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45307/original/xdzmwwhx-1396358298.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45307/original/xdzmwwhx-1396358298.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45307/original/xdzmwwhx-1396358298.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45307/original/xdzmwwhx-1396358298.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Artur Mas, leader of Catalan centre-right separatist party CiU.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/40744245@N02/4906500521/in/photolist-8tz6Ez-8tC7pL-8tC7sW-droDzd-bqr7m2-8tjiGK-8tnjYY-8tnjXw-8tjiHP-8tnk7o-8tjiMB-8tnk5W-8tjiBX-8tnk1s-8tnk6Q-8tjiDz-8tjiG6-dNJiba-9kV6kn-9kYap9-9kYaJG-9kYatj-9kV6yH-9kV6pk-bpz1ab-bCtVWp-bCtW5H-bCtVKZ-8TWzXs-byehHg-8ScW9U-8S9QdD-8ScRRE-8ScRNh-8G1LT6-95CEw3-87Bkny-87Bipf-87y9Hx-87Boem-87y764-87y7nZ-87BtuA-87ydAK-87BoSq-87yczv-87ybRP-87ygq8-87Bn3s-87yeFt-87ygbH">ACN</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Rajoy puts forward two complementary arguments about why the vote won’t happen. First, under the current Spanish constitution, referendums can only be called by the central government in Madrid. Second, the constitution enshrines the indivisibility of the Spanish nation and establishes that national sovereignty belongs to the Spanish people. As a result, even if there were to be a referendum it should be all across Spain.</p>
<p>The debate is partly about competing visions of democracy. Rajoy and other political leaders believe the constitution guarantees democracy. Pro-referendum politicians argue that Catalans have the right to decide their political future and that this democratic principle should be given priority over strict readings of the constitution. </p>
<p>There are also competing visions on nationhood and sovereignty. There is an implicit and unsolved disagreement about whether Spain contains one or more “nations”. This leads to another disagreement over which is the relevant political unit entitled to self-determination - Catalans, in this case, or the Spanish people as a whole. Note that this is an important difference to the Scottish referendum. Scotland’s recognition as a nation was arguably a precondition for the October 2012 <a href="http://www.scotland.gov.uk/About/Government/concordats/Referendum-on-independence">Edinburgh Agreement</a>.</p>
<p>Aside from the arguments about Spain and the constitution, there is much discussion about how independence would affect Catalonia. Mas argues that Catalonia would be in a better economic position if it had the tools of a state, while Rajoy maintains it would be poorer and would be left out of organisations such as the EU. </p>
<p>These arguments may sound familiar to readers who follow the Scottish debate. But by and large the discussion on Catalonia’s political future lacks detail and depth. Key issues such as the political structure of an independent Catalonia are not being properly addressed. This can mostly be explained by the fact that the debate has largely focused on whether there should be a vote. </p>
<p>And even this has officially come to a halt. On <a href="http://www.thelocal.es/20140220/spain-blocks-catalan-independence-plans">21 February</a> the Spanish Parliament voted overwhelmingly against “the secessionist plan of the Catalan government,” and on <a href="http://www.lamoncloa.gob.es/IDIOMAS/9/Presidente/News/2014/20140311_UpperHouse_ControlSession.htm">11 March</a> Rajoy declared in the senate that he is not “willing to discuss the annihilation of the national sovereignty.” </p>
<p>That is certainly not the end of the matter, though. On 8 April a delegation of Catalan leaders will call on the Spanish government to hand the Catalan Parliament legal powers to hold a referendum, but the plea is expected to be rejected.</p>
<p>Does this mean this is a dead-end street? When the request is rejected, the Catalan Parliament will pass its own bill to hold what could be described as a “popular consultation”, given that the result would not be legally binding. </p>
<p>In the event that the consultation is not allowed to take place, Mas’ Plan B is to call for a plebiscitary election that would be held between the end of 2014 and the end of 2016. But this is also uncertain, as CiU does not have a unanimous position and anti-referendum parties have already made clear that they will take it as a regular election.</p>
<p>Third ways are still possible, of course. Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba, the leader of the <a href="http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/558200/Spanish-Socialist-Workers-Party">Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party</a> (PSOE) has made several calls for the constitution to be amended to allow for a federal system of government, but this proposal so far includes little content. </p>
<p>Some commentators suggest that Rajoy might be more inclined to make political offers to Catalonia after the campaign for the May <a href="http://www.elections2014.eu/en">European elections</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/45309/original/jznvz2yx-1396358832.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/45309/original/jznvz2yx-1396358832.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/45309/original/jznvz2yx-1396358832.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45309/original/jznvz2yx-1396358832.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45309/original/jznvz2yx-1396358832.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45309/original/jznvz2yx-1396358832.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45309/original/jznvz2yx-1396358832.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45309/original/jznvz2yx-1396358832.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Roadblock: Spanish leader Mariano Rajoy not giving ground</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/46733489@N05/5117064173/in/photolist-8NbhUn-75kMsH-2r6R9R-a8csHv-8NenLb-2rbbQ9-8NbRJn-8NbUvT-8Nf4sG-8NeWY1-8NeYm1-8NbZTV-8NbVsi-8Nc1aK-8NeZr9-8NbXti-8Nf6Yh-8Nf4Xd-8Nf3sQ-8Nf6FN-8NbSmg-8Nf5RS-8Nf2tE-8Nf2Fs-8NbRiD-8NeYK3-8NbTDc-8NeY3S-8Nf2TY-8Nf1xo-8NbUVc-8NbS88-8NbYqa-8Nf37s-8NeWvG-8Nf5nA-8NbRVv-8Nf22d-8ZP67t-aEhxeD-7CouDw-dXN3Hh-dXGjYe-dF2FcU-dF2F9j-9HJstq-9HJpb9-dCh8Ni-dCnyPE-71ftyk-dwZKVJ">PPC</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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<p>It also remains to be seen how things will be affected by the ruling of the Spanish Constitutional Court on <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/26/us-spain-catalonia-idUSBREA2O1R020140326">25 March</a>. The Court ambiguously said that there is no differentiated Catalan political sovereignty but the right to decide can be constitutional as long as it is understood as a political aspiration to be achieved within the framework of the constitution. </p>
<p>As things stand it is far from clear how the Catalan situation will develop. Much will depend on the two governments’ willingness to talk to one another during the next few months. </p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/25101/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dani Cetrà is a University of Aberdeen research fellow at the Scottish Centre on Constitutional Change</span></em></p>Welcome to Breaking Nations, a series of articles that examines independence movements across the globe ahead of the Scottish referendum in September. To begin, Dani Cetrà gives us the view from Catalonia…Daniel Cetrà, PhD student, The University of EdinburghLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.