tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/social-compact-48064/articlesSocial compact – The Conversation2020-06-16T12:48:26Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1401862020-06-16T12:48:26Z2020-06-16T12:48:26ZWhat Ramaphosa’s COVID-19 decisions say about South Africa’s democracy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341452/original/file-20200612-153817-dkok4i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">South African president Cyril Ramaphosa.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">GCIS</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Early this year, South African president Cyril Ramaphosa <a href="https://www.gov.za/SONA2020">put forward</a> the idea of a “social compact” as a means to consult and build consensus for reviving the country’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/budget-shows-treasury-is-desperately-short-of-ideas-to-fix-south-africas-economic-woes-132544">ailing economy</a>. He used the same principle to build broad consensus around the <a href="https://www.gov.za/speeches/statement-president-cyril-ramaphosa-measures-combat-covid-19-epidemic-15-mar-2020-0000">national state of disaster</a> he declared in March to fight the COVID-19 pandemic. The country has been under lockdown since 27 March.</p>
<p>Ramaphosa emphasised inclusive decision-making informed by <a href="http://www.dirco.gov.za/docs/speeches/2020/cram0323.pdf">scientific evidence</a>. Such an approach would serve to depoliticise and rationalise decision-making. That’d create more national coherence and allow for benevolent “post-democratic” decision-making. </p>
<p>This approach enjoyed a great deal of public support in the first weeks of the COVID-19 crisis, and presented Ramaphosa in <a href="https://www.politicsweb.co.za/opinion/ramaphoria-enjoys-a-revival">statesman-like terms</a>. But, since the downscaling of the restrictions began, and lobbying by different sectors included in the process intensified, that consensus no longer exists. </p>
<p>Initially, decision-making was simple, and was dominated by government. But it gradually became more complex as the implications of disaster management became clearer. </p>
<p>More diversity makes consensus more difficult. Democratic openness makes it difficult to achieve long-term consensus positions. It also requires continuous consultation and information-sharing to sustain enough support for the decisions. That has become Ramapahosa’s main task to protect the legitimacy of the lockdown.</p>
<p>At an early stage the role played by state intelligence and security agencies became public. At the end of March, transport minister Fikile Mbalula mentioned that the State Security Agency processed most of the lockdown regulations for <a href="https://www.power987.co.za/news/sa-lockdown-intelligence-is-behind-us-fikile-mbalula/">approval by the National Command Council</a>, the main government body charged with managing the crisis.</p>
<p>In May the role of the National Joint Operational and <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2020-05-13-south-africa-be-aware-and-beware-of-the-rise-of-the-securocrats/">Intelligence Structure</a> was explained. Its responsibilities were to conduct the daily monitoring of the lockdown dynamics and to draft plans to be approved by the National Command Council. </p>
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<p>Reliable intelligence for the police and even health institutions is an indispensable requirement for managing such a disaster situation. It serves as a second source of information alongside the line-function departments. </p>
<p>Most important is the paradigmatic nature of the information. That determines intelligence agencies’ influence on decision-making. For example, do they and government view the situation through the lens of crime prevention or the need for human security and safety? </p>
<h2>Responsiveness to pressure</h2>
<p>Government decision-making is the product of value choices. Uncertainty exists about what determines the decisions. For example, does it have to do with public health or economic imperatives; crime prevention, law-enforcement, or public safety and civil responsibility considerations?</p>
<p>Decisions are not necessarily about stark binary choices. They’re more often than not about combining different imperatives.</p>
<p>Decision-making reached a critical stage when the risk level of the disaster regulations had to be reviewed to reopen large parts of the economy, and to allow for some schooling. </p>
<p>Firstly, the diversity of inputs into the decision-making process increased. Pressure from business increased and public opinion became more prominent. But it also got more fragmented. This was particularly true when it came to restrictions on alcohol and tobacco and a curfew. Interest groups expected to be consulted or threatened legal action. </p>
<p>Secondly, more attention was given to the government’s internal dynamics, and the personalities of Ramaphosa and <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/news/politics/cigarette-tussle-govt-to-blame-for-ramaphosa-ndz-fiasco-47584704">Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma</a>, the minister responsible for managing the disaster regulations. Speculation about a power struggle between them for control over government’s decision-making received a lot of attention.</p>
<p>A close analysis of Ramaphosa’s presidential speeches indicates an increase in responsiveness to pressure. Most apparent is the pressure from the business and financial sector. The example set by <a href="https://www.gov.za/speeches/president-cyril-ramaphosa-south-africas-response-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic-13-may-2020">other states</a> in how they approached a lowering of lockdown restrictions was acknowledged by Ramaphosa as a factor he also takes into account. </p>
<p>He conceded in his third speech that some of the regulations were contradictory and not sensible. He also apologised for mistakes made by the <a href="https://citizen.co.za/news/south-africa/government/2284411/ramaphosa-concedes-mistakes-were-made-during-covid-19-lockdown-pledges-to-do-better/">political leaders</a>. Critical public opinion clearly showed its effect.</p>
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<p>Government insisted that its actions were informed by scientific advice. But some of the health scientists advising it <a href="https://www.universityworldnews.com/post.php?story=20200604074841475">publicly challenged it</a>. This indicates how decision-making changed over time. The scientists’ perceived marginalisation led them to claim that the new regulations were “unscientific”. </p>
<p>But changes in the government’s decision-making requirements changed from public health care science to scientific modelling of the <a href="https://businesstech.co.za/news/trending/400597/8-different-models-predict-how-coronavirus-cases-could-increase-in-south-africa/">pandemic’s future scenarios</a>. Other “competing” scientific inputs also became part of the decision calculations. This included economic forecasting provided by the presidential <a href="http://www.thepresidency.gov.za/press-statements/president-appoints-economic-advisory-council">Economic Advisory Council</a> as well as forecasting by economists and market analysts in public debates.</p>
<h2>Litigation and public opinion</h2>
<p>Litigation is a growing feature of the pandemic landscape. It has <a href="https://citizen.co.za/news/south-africa/courts/2293680/concourt-will-consider-das-application-to-challenge-disaster-management-act/">challenged the constitutionality</a> of the National Command Council, some of the <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/mercury/news/court-to-hear-challenge-to-cigarette-ban-48909322">regulations</a>, police and military brutality, the criteria for financial assistance to <a href="https://www.moneyweb.co.za/news/south-africa/court-cases-are-piling-up-against-government-lockdown/">small businesses and related matters</a>. </p>
<p>The relevance of litigation for decision-making should be noted. Examples of its impact are that Ramaphosa now refrains from referring to the Command Council in public. Parliament has become more active, while he emphasises his broad consultation approach.</p>
<p>A notable feature is how some national ministers are struggling with decision-making and public communication. Regulations within their domains are often delayed, amended or withdrawn. This happened in <a href="https://techfinancials.co.za/2020/05/31/angie-motshekga-to-update-sa-on-readiness-for-the-reopening-of-schools/">the reopening of schools</a>. After the tobacco debacle, Ramaphosa stopped making pronouncements about specific regulations, and appears to be much better organised.</p>
<p>What is the message for the South African public?</p>
<h2>Public opinion and democracy</h2>
<p>Decision-making now takes into account many of the societal pressures. At the same time the government has to find a compromise between competing interests. The important point is that the various strains of public opinion have had a direct impact on decision-making. </p>
<p>This is expected of well-established democracies. For South Africa to allow so much public influence in decisive matters under difficult conditions is an important plus factor.</p>
<p>In essence, the more complex and diverse the decision process has become in South Africa, the more the public debate challenges aspects of it, the more evidence shows that the way the government takes its decisions does not point to a democratic regression, but rather adherence to a democratic sentiment. This is not accounted for by those who warn of a totalitarian apocalypse in the country.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/140186/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dirk Kotze does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>President Cyril Ramaphosa has emphasised inclusive decision-making informed by scientific evidence. Such an approach would serve to depoliticise and rationalise decision-making.Dirk Kotze, Professor in Political Science, University of South AfricaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1381712020-05-13T13:40:27Z2020-05-13T13:40:27ZWhat South Africa needs to forge a resilient social compact for Covid-19<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/334400/original/file-20200512-82397-mqplfk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Abuses by police and the army point to the need for citizens to be involved in security and other crisis response measures </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EFE-EPA/Kim Ludbrook</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has <a href="https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/full-speech-cobid-19-crisis-will-not-last-forever-but-impact-needs-extraordinary-budget-ramaphosa-20200421">called for</a> “a new social compact among all role players – business, labour, community and government – to restructure the economy and achieve inclusive growth”.</p>
<p>In South Africa, ‘social compact’ has often been used narrowly to describe pacts between stakeholders on specific sectoral issues. <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17502977.2019.1682925">A resilient social compact,</a> as we use the concept, requires a dynamic agreement between the state and society on how to live together, and how to address issues of power and resources. </p>
<p>For such an agreement to contribute to peace and societal well-being, it must be reflected in the mechanisms, policies and responses that uphold the agreement. This needs to be done in a way that’s flexible and responsive, especially in times of crisis.</p>
<p>This approach recasts the concept of social compact (or social contract) as a tool for addressing issues of conflict, crisis and transition. <a href="http://www.socialcontractsforpeace.org/publications/#FindingsDocuments">Research across nine countries</a>, including in <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17502977.2019.1706436">South Africa</a>, found that social cohesion is a key driver. <a href="http://www.socialcontractsforpeace.org/research/concepts/">Social cohesion</a> builds on the concept of social solidarity, which lies in areas of trust and respect, belonging and identity, and participation. </p>
<p>Its achievement also rests on progress by other drivers. These are inclusive political settlements addressing core issues dividing people, and institutions delivering fairly and effectively. </p>
<p>To move in the direction of a resilient social compact, Ramaphosa’s call will fall on deaf ears unless there are some fundamental changes to the way in which the pandemic is being managed.</p>
<h2>Solidarity and cohesion</h2>
<p>The first is that there needs to be a critical focus on how vulnerable groups are affected differently.</p>
<p>South Africa’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/pandemic-underscores-gross-inequalities-in-south-africa-and-the-need-to-fix-them-135070">stark socio-economic inequalities</a> – within and across racial groups – are core issues that continue to divide people. This is true economically as well as spatially, psychologically, socially and politically. </p>
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<p>Lockdown restrictions, therefore, affect people differently. In <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/southafrica/publication/the-economics-of-south-african-townships-special-focus-on-diepsloot">townships</a> – apartheid-era residential areas that are predominantly black – loss of work means loss of livelihoods with <a href="https://socialjustice.sun.ac.za/blog/2020/04/statement-policy-brief-coronavirus-covid19/">grave challenges</a> accessing food, health and education. Suburbanites – who are mostly white – on the other hand, have tended to be more preoccupied by loss of freedoms related to jogging, dog-walking, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/lockdown-is-riling-black-and-white-south-africans-could-this-be-a-reset-moment-138044">accessing liquor and cigarettes</a>.</p>
<p>These differences demand, secondly, that greater attention be given to how policies are being implemented. </p>
<p>Addressing these issues could ensure that social cohesion and social solidarity are nurtured through this crisis. </p>
<p>People need to feel included and that they belong – and that policies and practices deliver on expectations and agreements. When this fails, and human rights are violated in the process, these bonds and relationships suffer. Trust in the state, its institutions and associated legitimacy needed for their functioning, falters.</p>
<p>Human rights abuses by the security forces in the wake of the lockdown have included shootings, baton and gun beatings, teargassing, humiliation, abusive language, water bombing, invasion of private backyards, and <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/news/politics/da-calls-for-military-ombudsman-to-investigate-abuse-by-sandf-members-during-lockdown-45758138">even death</a>. This has occurred especially in townships.</p>
<p>The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights recently identified South Africa as among <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/raises-alarm-police-brutality-covid-19-lockdowns-200428070216771.html">15 countries</a> where human rights violations associated with COVID-19 restrictions were <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=25828&LangID=E">most troubling</a>.</p>
<h2>What’s missing</h2>
<p>In the current COVID-19 context we are seeing fissures that dangerously undermine the bonds and relationships between the state and citizens. These are common in fragile and transitional contexts.</p>
<p>Many security forces members are following on the path Ramaphosa set with his peaceful <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south-africa/2020-03-27-in-quotes--ramaphosa-on-police--army-as-a-force-of-kindness-chancers-and-saving-lives/">messaging</a> to guide them in defending citizens against the pandemic.</p>
<p>But, some are <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/news/politics/da-calls-for-military-ombudsman-to-investigate-abuse-by-sandf-members-during-lockdown-45758138">abusing their power</a>. </p>
<p>These abuses echo the experiences of black South Africans under apartheid when obedience was secured with authoritarian rule and aggression. </p>
<p>In addition, developing a national COVID-19 response has brought glaring inequalities to the fore – and the country’s persistent <a href="https://journals.co.za/content/journal/10520/EJC-19f475f86a">racial geographies</a>.</p>
<p>These too challenge the goal of achieving a resilient social compact.</p>
<p>Resentment among some township residents has grown, and various forms of civil disobedience have resulted. Vuyo Zungula, leader of the African Transformation Movement, one of the smaller parties represented in parliament, observed on his Twitter page:</p>
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<p>Until I see Whites, Indians getting the same treatment for breaking the Lockdown rules I will view the SANDF and SAPS as the enemy of the people.</p>
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<h2>Way forward</h2>
<p>If the lockdown is enforced through coercion rather than consent, and the dignity of citizens is not respected, a resilient social compact won’t ever be viewed as anything more than rhetoric. </p>
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<p>COVID-19 presents profound challenges for citizens and the state. Building trust and cooperation, between state and society, and between social and stakeholder groups in society, is paramount.</p>
<p>What then is needed?</p>
<p>First, there needs to be vigilant government commitment against coercion. Swift action must be taken against abuses by the security sector. And there needs to be effective communication with those affected by the abuse. This should accompany strong assurances of accountability and justice, and upscaled training of the military and the police in crisis response functions.</p>
<p>Second, <a href="https://socialjustice.sun.ac.za/downloads/posts/2020-04-ml-csj-statemement-on-policy-responses-to-coronavirus-covid19.pdf">two-way communication channels</a> that offer the means to build trust and legitimacy of government actions need to be established. These should focus on fostering <a href="https://www.sfcg.org/our-media/">innovative ways</a> for citizens to access information and participate in crisis response strategies. This can occur through surveys, via radio and mobile applications, or radio call-in shows. </p>
<p>Township and suburban residents must take part in the security and other crisis response measures. Widely accessible and consistent messaging is needed, such as the township education undertaken by the <a href="https://c19peoplescoalition.org.za/">C-19 People’s Coalition</a>. The alliance brings together social movements, trade unions, and community organisations working to provide an effective, just and equitable response to the pandemic.</p>
<p>Its members distribute leaflets in Gauteng townships in local languages, as they demonstrate social distancing and the wearing of masks while they mobilise and strengthen networks of food production, distribution and consumption. These may well have benefits beyond the COVID-19 crisis. </p>
<p>Finally, social solidarity is forged when each segment of society works together for the greater social good. Such efforts are widespread in <a href="https://www.solidarityfund.co.za/">South Africa</a> and <a href="https://thedetail.tv/articles/activist-response-to-covid-19">around the world</a>. These stories need to be shared with a view to strengthening longer-term transformation efforts in the country.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/138171/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Ramaphosa’s call for a new social compact will fall on deaf ears unless there are some fundamental changes to the way in which the pandemic is being managed.Erin McCandless, Associate Professor, School of governance, University of the WitwatersrandDarlene Ajeet Miller, Senior Lecturer, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1219622019-08-16T12:53:35Z2019-08-16T12:53:35ZHow Democrats can win back workers in 2020<p>Labor unions and the workers they represent were once the <a href="https://www.thenation.com/article/how-democratic-party-lost-its-soul/">heart and soul</a> of the Democratic Party. </p>
<p>The 2016 presidential election revealed just how much that has changed. Hillary Clinton <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/michigan-hillary-clinton-trump-232547">lost in key battleground states</a> like Michigan and Wisconsin in part <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/18/us/politics/2020-candidates-election-2016.html">because she took labor support for granted</a>. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://gcgj.mit.edu/new-paper-worker-voice-appear-ilr-review">survey</a> my team of labor scholars at MIT conducted about five months after the election showed that most workers feel they lack a voice at their jobs. Many Americans apparently felt that Donald Trump did a much better job than Clinton showing he was on their side and had a plan to help them. </p>
<p>As I watch the 2020 presidential debates, I wonder: Will Democrats make the same mistake? Or will they return to their roots and put the full range of workers’ needs and aspirations front and center in their campaigns?</p>
<h2>What workers want</h2>
<p><a href="http://inthesetimes.com/features/democrats-2020-candidates-labor-stances-union-endorsements.html">Some of the candidates</a> vying to be the 2020 nominee have offered plans to support organized labor, but they mainly endorse bills already in Congress to shore up collective bargaining rights. None have offered a clear vision and strategy for assuring workers have a voice in the key decisions that will shape the future of work. </p>
<p>This won’t be enough to give workers the stronger and broader voice at work they are calling for today. </p>
<p>In our 2017 survey, we learned two key things about what workers actually want.</p>
<p>First, a majority of workers reported they have less say and influence than they believe they ought to have on a broad array of workplace issues, ranging from compensation and job security to concerns about sexual harassment and how new technologies will affect their jobs and careers. </p>
<p>Thus, there is a significant “voice gap” on both traditional “bread and butter” issues as well as emerging ones that lie beyond the reach of traditional collective bargaining. Workers want these voice gaps filled.</p>
<p>Second, just under half of nonunion workers in America would join a union today if given the opportunity to do so, a level of interest that is at a <a href="https://gcgj.mit.edu/new-paper-worker-voice-appear-ilr-review">40-year high</a>. This translates into 58 million potential new union members that, if mobilized and supported, could restore the Democrats’ lost soul and keep them in power long enough to really do the things that would make the economy work for workers.</p>
<p>Instead, I’ve seen <a href="https://time.com/5639682/2020-democratic-debate-detroit/">throwaway lines at debates</a> merely signaling support for unions, which I don’t believe <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/labor-unions-take-their-time-in-choosing-2020-candidates-to-endorse-11558785600">will be enough</a> to win back the workers that voted for Trump. </p>
<h2>A 2020 worker platform</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/who-wants-to-join-a-union-a-growing-number-of-americans-102374">2017 survey</a> and <a href="https://iwer.mit.edu/research-resources/">our subsequent research</a> demonstrate that what workers really need is a <a href="https://theconversation.com/heres-how-workers-would-spend-the-corporate-tax-cut-if-they-had-a-voice-90604">new social compact</a> governing work that lifts their voices. </p>
<p>This desire is also clearly being expressed in the growing number of collective actions taking place across the country. For example, the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/23/politics/teacher-strikes-politics/index.html">teachers who have gone on strike</a> in at least half a dozen states did so not only for higher wages but to ensure their students were getting the financial support they needed. <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-googles-employees-walked-out-and-what-it-could-mean-for-the-future-of-labor-106305">Google workers</a> staged a walkout late last year to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/08/technology/google-arbitration-sexual-harassment.html">force their company</a> to change sexual misconduct policy. </p>
<p>A new compact will of course require reforming basic labor law by protecting freedom of association and providing workers access to collective bargaining and other forms of representation. Today it’s <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.1177/001979390806200101">almost impossible for workers</a> to join a union if management resists.</p>
<p>And it will require opening up labor law to more fundamental changes to give workers a seat on corporate boards and a voice in how new technologies will affect their jobs and providing new avenues for resolving harassment claims.</p>
<p>But more than that, workers need politicians to give them a strong and forward-looking platform that both restores collective bargaining and new ways to address broader workplace issues such as harassment policy and technological change. </p>
<p>Doing so might not only help Democrats reclaim the White House in 2020 but help the party regain its soul as well. </p>
<p>[ <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=signupinsight">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter to get insight each day</a></em> ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/121962/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas Kochan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Hillary Clinton arguably lost in 2020 because she took workers for granted. Will Democrats make the same mistake again?Thomas Kochan, Professor of Management, Co-Director of the MIT Sloan Institute for Work and Employment Research, MIT Sloan School of ManagementLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1045912018-10-11T13:46:34Z2018-10-11T13:46:34ZSouth Africa won’t create jobs unless it settles on a new social compact<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/240075/original/file-20181010-72121-1cn15os.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A significant number of South Africans can't find jobs and scrounge for a living on the sidelines of the economy.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Nearly a week has passed since South Africa’s <a href="http://jobssummit.co.za/">2018 jobs summit</a>. The two-day gathering produced some useful agreements between the social partners: government, organised labour and business (essentially, big business). </p>
<p>This was the fourth jobs summit in 20 years. The frequency of attempts to find a solution to the country’s unemployment problems isn’t surprising given that South Africa has one of the <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south-africa/2018-09-03-more-adults-not-working-than-working-in-south-africa/">highest jobless rates</a> in the world. The unemployment rate has increased from under 22% in 2008 to the current rate of <a href="https://ewn.co.za/2018/07/31/sa-unemployment-rate-rises-to-27-2-in-q2">27.2%</a>. </p>
<p>But the record on delivering results has been mixed, to say the least. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/1998-05-29-threats-to-job-summit">first jobs summit</a> in the post 1994 era was held in 1998 when Nelson Mandela’s presidency was nearing its end and amid a developing country debt crisis. It achieved very little. The next one – <a href="http://www.polity.org.za/article/mbeki-growth-and-development-summit-07062003-2003-06-07">the 2003 Growth and Development Summit</a> – achieved significant agreements. But these were poorly monitored and implemented.</p>
<p>Six years later in 2009 social partners agreed on a <a href="https://pmg.org.za/committee-meeting/10717/">framework</a> to respond to the global financial crisis. In spite of the measures introduced by agreements reached at the gathering, South Africa <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09765239.2014.11884980">lost</a> nearly a million jobs.</p>
<p>Undoubtedly the outcome of the recent summit is positive. Job-saving elements of the 2009 agreement have been revived. There are forward-looking commitments such as finance for the black industrialist scheme and a focus on the export of manufactured products. There are initiatives for small business support, technical training and a mechanism for the absorption of <a href="http://www.engineeringnews.co.za/print-version/jobs-summit-2018-10-04">graduates into the economy</a>.</p>
<p>But perhaps the most important outcome was that a Presidential jobs council will be established to <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_documents/Jobs_Summit_FrameWork_Agreement.pdf">monitor progress</a>. </p>
<p>As welcome as these developments are, the agreement doesn’t explicitly acknowledge that there might be some fundamental issues in the approach to development and job creation in South Africa. In a <a href="http://www.effective-states.org/wp-content/uploads/working_papers/final-pdfs/esid_wp_105_hirsch_levy.pdf">paper just published</a> Brian Levy and I identify what these might be.</p>
<p>We argue that the <a href="http://www.effective-states.org/wp-content/uploads/working_papers/final-pdfs/esid_wp_105_hirsch_levy.pdf">implicit social compact</a> of the 1990s laid a poor foundation for job creating growth in South Africa. Our view is that unless South Africa revisits the implicit and explicit deals struck at that time, the chances of making serious inroads into unemployment are remote. </p>
<p>But is South Africa in the kind of crisis as Mauritius was in 1968 and Ireland in 1988, where key social players were forced to review the social compact and work together towards a coherent developmental model? And do the social partners have strong enough leaders to arrive at suitable agreements? </p>
<p>These are the questions excitingly raised by the outcome of jobs summit, and should, in our view, be the preoccupation of the President’s jobs council.</p>
<h2>The 1990s compact</h2>
<p>An elite bargain over the country’s economic framework formed an essential part of the foundation for a democratic South Africa. The context of the bargaining process included the capitulation of the communist block, economic stagnation in most African countries, and a relentless campaign by the white South African business community for government not to intervene in the economic framework. </p>
<p>There was the threat of flight of capital and white citizens who were virtually monopoly owners of wealth and key economic skills and networks. What emerged was an apparently strong commitment to market-opening reforms.</p>
<p>The result is well known. The economic policies emphasised what was then called “getting the prices right and what we call "disciplining reforms”. This included: trade and financial liberalisation, fiscal restraint, tougher competition laws and a conservative mandate for the central bank. </p>
<p>Conversely, policies lacked on the side of interventionist mechanisms that were effective in some more successful developing countries. These included support for industrial innovation, cluster development and industrial policy which would have encouraged domestic investment in job creating growth.</p>
<p>Policy choices weren’t the only problem. Key players in the economy were pursuing new agendas as their options had broadened with the end of South Africa’s economic isolation and the repression of apartheid.</p>
<p><a href="https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/3350068/aghion_southafrica.pdf?sequence=2">South African corporations</a> were focused on narrowing their South African operations and spreading their activities and assets abroad. While they cast off some non-core assets, the corporations remain extraordinarily powerful.</p>
<p>At the same time, the trade unions used their bargaining power with government to strengthen worker rights. All labour laws had to go through the newly formed National Economic Development and Labour Council (NEDLAC) and could not go through until all parties were happy. The result was that big business, which always dominated the business delegation, agreed to labour laws that they could manage with their sophisticated human resource departments and because of the choices they could exercise. However, these laws were not all easy to implement for small and medium companies. </p>
<p>In addition, the reformed industrial training system was poorly designed which set back industrial training for many years.</p>
<p>The market opening reforms combined with the labour reforms achieved very little in the way of supporting dynamic investment and innovation. So, the elite pact that emerged reflected what powerful stakeholders were prepared to agree too – not a coherent package derived from carefully thought out trade-offs. </p>
<p>Compared with outcomes of more successful social pacts like Mauritius in the late 1960s and Ireland in the late 1980s, South Africa’s social compact failed. And over time commitment to the elements of the compact waned.</p>
<h2>In a different world</h2>
<p>In a different world, perhaps, had South African elites agreed on a clear developmental model and had they strived for suitable strategies, the outcome might have been very different. There would have been a much stronger emphasis on the more interventionist kinds of supportive industrial policies.</p>
<p>It’s not too late. More recently, industrial policy has formed part of the approach of government as seen in major initiatives in several sectors.</p>
<p>Informed analysts in South Africa are now asking “Where is growth going to come from?” Skilled people are streaming out the country as they did in Mauritius in the 1960s and in Ireland in the 1980s. Could it be that this is the moment for a coherent, developmental social compact?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/104591/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alan Hirsch received funding from the Effective States and Inclusive Development Research Programme at the University of Manchester for research relating to this article.</span></em></p>South Africa’s jobs summit failed to acknowledge fundamental issues in the approach to development and job creation.Alan Hirsch, Professor and Director of The Nelson Mandela School of Public Governance, University of Cape TownLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/894562017-12-20T12:59:23Z2017-12-20T12:59:23ZWho is Cyril Ramaphosa? A profile of the new leader of South Africa<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/200161/original/file-20171220-4997-jb39at.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">New ANC President Cyril Ramaphosa moments before winning.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA-EFE/Cornell Tukiri</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South Africa has a new president – <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/news/politics/cyril-ramaphosa-to-shake-up-cabinet-13315934">Cyril Ramaphosa</a>. But who is he?</p>
<p><a href="http://www.jacana.co.za/book-categories/biography-a-memoir/cyril-ramaphosa-revised-detail">Ramaphosa</a> cuts a <a href="https://www.news24.com/Columnists/GuestColumn/ramaphosas-first-address-as-anc-president-read-the-full-speech-20171221">fitting figure</a> to take over government, stabilise the economy, and secure the constitutional architecture that he helped create at the end of apartheid. </p>
<p>But to expect more would be expecting too much. He is unlikely to veer far from the traditional economic path chosen by the ANC. </p>
<p>There are some important features we can draw on to make some conjectures about the man.</p>
<h2>The early days</h2>
<p>Ramaphosa was born in Johannesburg, the industrial heartland of South Africa, on <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/people/cyril-matamela-ramaphosa">November 17, 1952</a>. The second of three children, his father was a policeman. He grew up in Soweto where he attended primary and high school. He later went to Mphaphuli High School in Sibasa, Limpopo, were he was elected <a href="http://allafrica.com/stories/201712040357.html">head of the Student Christian Movement</a> soon after his arrival, attesting to his Christian beliefs. </p>
<p>He studied law at the then University of the North (Turfloop), where he became active in the <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/topic/south-african-student-organisation-saso">South African Students Organisation</a>, which was aligned to <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/archive/definition-black-consciousness-bantu-stephen-biko-december-1971-south-africa">black consciousness ideology</a> espoused by Steve Biko. He became active in the University Student Christian Movement, which was steeped in the <a href="http://www.hts.org.za/index.php/HTS/article/view/3176/html">liberation black theology</a> of the black consciousness movement.</p>
<p>After graduating with a degree in law, Ramaphosa continued his political activism through the <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/topic/black-people%E2%80%99s-convention-bpc">Black People’s Convention</a>, for which he was jailed for six months. He went on to serve articles and joined the <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/dated-event/council-unions-south-africa-cusa-formed">Council of Trade Unions of South Africa</a> which was to form the <a href="http://num.org.za/">National Union of Mineworkers (NUM)</a> with Ramaphosa as its first secretary general. He helped built the NUM into the largest trade union in the country, serving as its secretary general for just over 10 years.</p>
<h2>Business and politics</h2>
<p>His prominence and public stature grew even more when he was elected secretary general of the ANC in 1991. He went on to play a key role during South Africa’s transition, becoming one of the key architects of the country’s constitutional democracy.</p>
<p>Under the auspices of the Convention for a Democratic South Africa <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/article/convention-democratic-south-africa-codesa">(Codesa)</a>, he became the ANC’s lead negotiator during negotiations on a post-apartheid arrangement. </p>
<p>Following this, <a href="https://www.nelsonmandela.org/news/entry/conversation-on-the-constitution">he</a> led the ANC team in drawing up a new constitution for the country. It is now considered one of the most progressive constitutions in the <a href="https://www.pressreader.com/south-africa/cape-times/20170320/281870118256239">world</a>. </p>
<p>In 1994 Ramaphosa lost the contest to become <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/sunday-times/news/2017-11-11-how-ramaphosa-nearly-became-nelson-mandelas-deputy/">President Nelson Mandela’s deputy</a>. Having Thabo Mbeki appointed instead was a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/dec/20/cyril-ramaphosa-return-nelson-mandela">blow</a>, but persuaded by Mandela, Ramaphosa went into business. </p>
<p>For the next two decades Ramaphosa put his energies into building a large investment holding company <a href="http://www.phembani.com/index.php/history-of-shanduka/">Shanduka</a> with interests in sectors ranging from mining to fast foods. The success of the group confirmed his reputation as a skilled dealmaker and negotiator. </p>
<p>During this 20-year period in business, Ramaphosa established deep links in the private sector in South Africa. </p>
<p>This set him at odds with sections of the ANC which believe that the post-apartheid arrangements delivered political power, but not economic freedom. These voices have become louder under President Jacob Zuma’s presidency with called for <a href="http://www.702.co.za/articles/251821/so-what-exactly-is-radical-economic-transformation">radical economic transformation</a> and action to tackle <a href="https://theconversation.com/white-monopoly-capital-good-politics-bad-sociology-worse-economics-77338">white monopoly capital</a>.</p>
<p>Ramaphosa will have his work cut out for him as he tries to accommodate these demands by driving a more inclusive social compact in the country while simultaneously trying to manage rampant corruption in the private and public sectors.</p>
<h2>Road to presidency</h2>
<p>Even during his years in business Ramaphosa remained close to the ANC, serving as a member of the national disciplinary committee. </p>
<p>But he made his major comeback onto the political scene at the ANC’s 2012 elective conference in Mangaung, <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/news/politics/ramaphosa-new-anc-deputy-president-1442300">Bloemfontein</a> where he was elected deputy president of the ANC, and later of the country. </p>
<p>Two years prior to this Ramaphosa became deputy chairman of the state-run <a href="https://www.brandsouthafrica.com/governance/developmentnews/ramaphosa-unpacks-the-ndp">National Planning Commission</a>. He presided over its <a href="http://www.nationalplanningcommission.org.za/Pages/Diagnostic-Report.aspx">diagnostic report,</a> which set out the problems facing the country in clear terms. A plan was drawn up to provide answers to the challenges identified in report. Known as the <a href="https://www.gov.za/issues/national-development-plan-2030">National Development Plan</a>, it was tabled as a blue print for the type of society South Africa could become. </p>
<p>The plan showed Ramaphosa’s strengths as an architect of social compacts. </p>
<p>Since its tabling the plan has been left to gather dust. But it remains a point of reference, and serves as a counterpoint to calls for radical economic transformation.</p>
<p>Ramaphosa is likely to emphasise stability – in government and the ANC. Given his history he is likely to want to stabilise the economy rather than to pursue radical interventions.</p>
<p>Ramaphosa has a personal interest to secure a stabilising social compact akin to the one he negotiated in 1994 given developments that have left the country economically and socially weaker. These have included allegations that parts of the state have been taken over by corrupt civil servants and some private sector interests, high levels of unemployment and increasingly fractious public debates. </p>
<p>Not surprisingly during his campaign trail he moulded his image on the sanctity of the rule of law and on the dictum that social stability hinges on respect of the rule of law. </p>
<p>The big question mark over Ramaphosa is how effective he will be. Although he’s been the deputy president of the ANC and of the country for five years, some believe that his influence has been minimal and that he has not been able to imprint his leadership on the party – or the country. </p>
<p>Will he be able to impose his will on those he now leads? Ramaphosa will be presiding over officials who have big personalities and have enjoyed long periods of political power. They are used to leading, not following.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/89456/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thapelo Tselapedi received funding from the Centre for the Study of Democracy at the University of Johannesburg. </span></em></p>Cyril Ramaphosa is likely to emphasise stability - in government and the ANC. Given his history he is likely to want to stabilise the economy rather than pursue radical interventions.Thapelo Tselapedi, Politics lecturer, Rhodes UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.