tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/south-carolina-primary-25041/articlesSouth Carolina primary – The Conversation2024-02-23T13:50:32Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2236872024-02-23T13:50:32Z2024-02-23T13:50:32ZThe South Carolina primary is likely to reveal the eventual Republican presidential nominee - 3 points to understand<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577433/original/file-20240222-18-pk1fxp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C50%2C6738%2C4155&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Supporters listen to Republican presidential hopeful Nikki Haley speak at a campaign event in Beaufort, S.C., on Feb. 21, 2024.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/supporters-listen-to-us-republican-presidential-hopeful-and-news-photo/2021281681?adppopup=true">Julia Nikhinson /AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Former President Donald Trump is set to face off against former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley in her home state in the Republican primary on Feb. 24, 2024.</em> </p>
<p><em>While Trump overwhelmingly beat Haley in both the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary in early 2024, Haley has said she is determined to stay in the race, even if she <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68351923#">loses in South Carolina</a>.</em> </p>
<p><em>But even though Haley’s return to South Carolina will be a homecoming, she has long had a complicated, and not always friendly, relationship with the politics and people of South Carolina. And there’s strong evidence that Haley is trailing Trump heading into the state’s primary.</em> </p>
<p><em>The Conversation U.S. spoke with <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Ii7Jx5cAAAAJ&hl=en">Kendra Stewart</a>, a scholar of public administration and South Carolina politics at the College of Charleston, to better understand the lay of the land and implications of the South Carolina primary. Here are three important points to understand:</em> </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577435/original/file-20240222-16-l7oqwq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A series of blue lawn placards that say 'Trump' in white writing stand outside of a small brick building, which also has a Trump flag." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577435/original/file-20240222-16-l7oqwq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577435/original/file-20240222-16-l7oqwq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577435/original/file-20240222-16-l7oqwq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577435/original/file-20240222-16-l7oqwq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577435/original/file-20240222-16-l7oqwq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577435/original/file-20240222-16-l7oqwq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577435/original/file-20240222-16-l7oqwq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Campaign signs for former President Donald Trump are displayed outside a local politician’s office in Columbia, S.C., on Feb. 22, 2024.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/campaign-signs-for-former-president-donald-trump-outside-an-news-photo/2022534512?adppopup=true">Sean Rayford/Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>1. The South Carolina primary offers strong clues about the general election</h2>
<p>This primary can be a really important indicator for the rest of the election. South Carolina is a solid red state. It has often been said that however the South Carolina primary goes is generally how the rest of the Republican primaries will go. It’s generally been very predictive of which Republican candidate actually wins the primary. The one exception for this is when South Carolina picked <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/20120122-usa-2012-presidential-elections-republican-primary-gingrich-wins-south-carolina-primary-upsets-romney">Newt Gingrich</a> over Mitt Romney in 2012, and <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Mitt_Romney">Mitt Romney went on</a> to win the overall Republican nomination. </p>
<p>South Carolina is the first primary in the South and the first primary in a state that has some racial diversity, which is more relevant to the Democratic Party, but still important. Since the South mostly votes as a block in modern presidential races, the Republican Party is always interested in nominating a candidate that will secure its base – and South Carolina is a good predictor as to how the rest of the South will vote. </p>
<h2>2. One of the candidates – Nikki Haley – is a former South Carolina governor</h2>
<p>Generally, you would anticipate that a candidate running in his or her home state would have an advantage in an election. But in this case, Haley is <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/02/20/exclusive-poll-donald-trump-nikki-haley-south-carolina/72656833007/">definitely the underdog</a>. In general, Haley was not overwhelmingly popular in South Carolina even when she was governor from 2011 through 2017. She has framed herself as an outsider candidate, which is of course what Trump has done, as well. </p>
<p>A lot of Haley’s support in South Carolina is not from the Republican establishment. When she ran for governor the <a href="https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=128018612">first time in 2010</a>, she ran against a number of key, establishment Republican politicians and beat them all. While she was in office, she was not someone who lined up with the Republican Party in South Carolina on many issues. She was a governor who believed in small government and minimal spending, which often led to conflict with state legislators who were trying to bring projects home to their districts. Haley’s biggest buck to the South Carolina Republican Party was when <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/02/15/nikki-haley-confederate-flag-timeline/">she led the charge to take down the Confederate flag</a> from the statehouse grounds. This was an issue that was very connected to the identity of the Republican Party and led to a previous governor – <a href="https://www.jfklibrary.org/events-and-awards/profile-in-courage-award/award-recipients/david-beasley-2003#:%7E:text=Political%20observers%20believe%20bitterness%20over,for%20re%2Delection%20in%201998.">David Beasley</a> – losing his reelection when he came out against flying the flag. </p>
<p>A big part of what made Haley an outsider in South Carolina politics is that she is a woman. In many ways, South Carolina was still a good ol’ boy system while she was in office, and she was not one of them. Haley didn’t conform to what a lot of people think of as the standard for politicians. South Carolina has always been near the <a href="https://apnews.com/article/south-carolina-sister-senators-tamekia-isaac-devine-09d514a323b524830d4c12ee90612d36">bottom of the list</a> for the number of women elected to political office because of a political culture based on traditional gender roles. </p>
<p>Generally, Haley has very much downplayed the fact that she was the first female governor of South Carolina, as well as the gender discrimination that women generally face in politics. She is an extremely savvy politician and realizes that these issues do not have broad appeal in South Carolina.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577434/original/file-20240222-30-ouhnup.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A tall, slim woman wears a long sleeve button down shirt and fancy pants and stands on a stage at twilight, with people in the crowd and palm trees in the distance. There are several American flags on the stage." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577434/original/file-20240222-30-ouhnup.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577434/original/file-20240222-30-ouhnup.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577434/original/file-20240222-30-ouhnup.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577434/original/file-20240222-30-ouhnup.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577434/original/file-20240222-30-ouhnup.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577434/original/file-20240222-30-ouhnup.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577434/original/file-20240222-30-ouhnup.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley speaks at a campaign event in Beaufort, S.C., a few days before the state’s primary.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-presidential-hopeful-and-former-un-ambassador-news-photo/2021281149?adppopup=true">Julia Nikhinson/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>3. South Carolina has an open primary</h2>
<p>In South Carolina, you don’t select a political party when you register to vote – you just register as a South Carolina citizen. <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/state-primary-election-types">A closed primary</a> means that you can only vote in the primary of the party for which you are a member. </p>
<p>South Carolina’s open primary system creates a lot of flexibility when it comes to voting. The only registered voters who couldn’t participate in the state’s Republican primary are those who already voted in the Democratic primary. The South Carolina <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/south-carolina-democratic-primary-results-rcna136236">Democratic primary</a>, on Feb. 3, had very low turnout. In 2020, four times as many people turned out to vote during this primary. To me, this says there are a lot of eligible voters – who typically don’t vote Republican – who might come out for the upcoming Republican primary. </p>
<p>I do think a good number of these people will turn out for the primary to vote against Trump, which would be a vote for Haley. The question is, will this be enough voters to change the primary’s outcome? I think this is highly unlikely.</p>
<p>One last point to remember is that the polling that is taking place in South Carolina is mostly focused on people who have voted in a past Republican primary. When polling predictions are wrong, it is almost always because the poll samples did not reflect the people who actually turned out. My assumption is that there are a fair number of Democrats and independents who are going to cast a ballot but who are not being polled because they traditionally do not vote in Republican primaries. Because of this, I think Haley’s support is going to be a little higher than polls are predicting. This could be enough to keep her momentum going.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223687/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kendra Stewart does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While Nikki Haley trails Donald Trump in polling ahead of the South Carolina primary, the estimates don’t capture the Democrats and independents who are also able to vote in the Republican primary.Kendra Stewart, Professor of political science and public administration, College of CharlestonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2225812024-02-20T13:18:50Z2024-02-20T13:18:50ZNikki Haley insists she can lose South Carolina and still get the nomination – but that would defy history<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573600/original/file-20240205-27-tyvqqr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=26%2C0%2C5862%2C3920&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Nikki Haley greets supporters at a campaign stop in Aiken, S.C., on Feb. 5, 2024.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-presidential-hopeful-and-former-un-ambassador-news-photo/1981166875?adppopup=true">Allison Joyce /AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Former South Carolina governor and United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, a Republican, has lost the first four presidential primary contests, but has <a href="https://apnews.com/article/haley-campaign-fight-trump-gop-nominee-donors-b8baa05cfece94e86066cf0c47bed83c">vowed to stay in the race</a> for the foreseeable future. Haley seems to be counting on support from her home state of South Carolina to put her in a more competitive position against former President Donald J. Trump. </p>
<p>Political science gives Haley <a href="https://press.umich.edu/Books/H/Home-Field-Advantage">a good reason to bank on doing well in South Carolina</a>. For one thing, a candidate has naturally higher name recognition in their home state after having built a career and reputation there. Voters have gotten to know them and their record of achievement, and the candidate knows the culture of the state and its political pressure points. </p>
<p>Shared ties in a state are also a meaningful identity that strengthens connections with voters based on trust. Being an out-of-towner, on the other hand, can make you seem out-of-touch. <a href="https://theconversation.com/dr-oz-should-be-worried-voters-punish-carpetbaggers-and-new-research-shows-why-188569">Just ask Dr. Oz</a>, whose many gaffes during his 2022 campaign for the U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania highlighted his deep roots in neighboring New Jersey.</p>
<p>These conditions can add up to a <a href="https://press.umich.edu/Books/H/Home-Field-Advantage">big electoral advantage</a> that Haley might be counting on in South Carolina.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/reel/C3k2C5LunKS","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<p>Unfortunately for Haley, <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/south-carolina/">every single poll</a> of her home state’s voters conducted over the past two months has Trump ahead of her by more than 20 points. She <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/haley-argues-win-south-carolina-claim-victory/story?id=106880487">recently argued</a> that it doesn’t matter if she doesn’t win South Carolina, as long as she closes “the gap” with Trump. </p>
<p>But if she does lose her home state, does she still have any shot at the nomination? The historical data reveal that the answer is an emphatic “no.”</p>
<h2>Data: Haley is in trouble</h2>
<p>I collected election results for both parties’ presidential primaries for each election year from 1992 to 2020. I then compared the percentage of the vote they received in their home state’s primary with the average they received in other states’ primaries held slightly before or on the same day as their home state. </p>
<p><iframe id="HF5Qi" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/HF5Qi/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>First, every eventual nominee in this time period performed at least as well, if not better in their home state’s primary than in other comparable primaries. Even Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, who were historically unpopular candidates in 2016, followed this trend. The same is true for <a href="https://youarehere.substack.com/p/do-presidential-candidates-get-home">nearly all</a> of the major presidential primary candidates during this time.</p>
<p>The data also tell us that, in the history of the modern presidential primary, since 1972, there has not been a single eventual nominee from either party who did not win their home state.</p>
<p>In this sense, Haley winning the nomination without her home state would be literally unprecedented.</p>
<p>Of course, Haley might have other outcomes in mind. Even if she remains a consistent second-place finisher in the primaries, she could wait in the wings for the nomination if Trump’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/article/trump-investigations-civil-criminal.html">legal difficulties</a> prevent him from serving in some way. </p>
<p>But the evidence says that winning the nomination outright will be next to impossible for Haley without first winning the primary in her home state.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222581/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Charlie Hunt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A presidential candidate’s ‘home state advantage’ should help them win a primary, which then bodes well for how they do in successive contests. But if they lose their home state, they’re in trouble.Charlie Hunt, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Boise State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2208142024-02-02T16:09:17Z2024-02-02T16:09:17ZBiden is campaigning against the Lost Cause and the ‘poison’ of white supremacy in South Carolina<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569668/original/file-20240116-17-rcsaui.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=580%2C210%2C7662%2C5265&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President Joe Biden at Mother Emanuel AME Church in South Carolina on Jan. 8, 2024. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-joe-biden-waits-to-speak-next-to-south-carolina-news-photo/1910415169?adppopup=true">Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the blur of breaking news, one of President Joe Biden’s <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/01/08/remarks-by-president-biden-at-a-political-event-charleston-sc/">first speeches</a> of the 2024 campaign was given in South Carolina and has already been mostly forgotten in the ongoing coverage of the state’s democratic primary on Feb. 3, 2024.</p>
<p>We should pay it more attention.</p>
<p>The site of the speech on Jan. 8, 2024, was Charleston, South Carolina’s Mother Emanuel AME Church, where, on a summer evening in 2015, an avowed white supremacist murdered nine Black worshipers, including <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/18/politics/south-carolina-church-shooting-clementa-pinckney/index.html">Rev. Clementa Pinckney</a>, the church’s pastor and a state representative. At Pinckney’s funeral, then-<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IN05jVNBs64">President Barack Obama</a> sang a heart-felt version of the Christian hymn <a href="https://www.loc.gov/item/ihas.200149085/">Amazing Grace</a>.</p>
<p>From the pulpit, Biden sounded like a preacher. </p>
<p>“The word of God was pierced by bullets in hate and rage, propelled by not just gunpowder but by a poison,” <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/01/08/remarks-by-president-biden-at-a-political-event-charleston-sc/">Biden said</a>. “A poison that’s for too long haunted this nation. What is that poison? White supremacy. … Throughout our history, it’s ripped this nation apart.”</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://joseph-kelly.com">historian who studies democracy in the American South</a>, I am doing research for a book on free speech, lying and fascism in America during the 1920s and 1930s. What I have learned is that Biden’s Mother Emanuel speech should rank with some of the most important speeches in our history.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Joe Biden speaks at Mother Emanuel AME Church in Charleston, South Carolina.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>The original big lie</h2>
<p>In 1820, 44 years after the nation’s birth, U.S. Sen. <a href="https://www.scencyclopedia.org/sce/entries/smith-william/">William Smith</a> of South Carolina was the first to claim in Congress that men were not created equal. Boldly rejecting the Declaration of Independence as effusive “enthusiasm,” Smith injected white supremacy into public discourse.</p>
<p>It spread like wildfire, and there’s little wonder. Smith, who owned several plantations and at least 71 enslaved people, was among more than <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/interactive/2022/congress-slaveowners-names-list/?itid=sf_local_dont-miss-brights_p004_f001">1,800 U.S. legislators</a> who enslaved Black people. </p>
<p>Southern propagandists rewrote history, arguing the founders never really believed in equality. If you disagreed, vigilante thugs would beat you up or chase you into exile. They killed more than a few people who spoke up against slavery.</p>
<h2>‘A house divided against itself cannot stand’</h2>
<p>The Supreme Court’s infamous 1857 decision in <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/1850-1900/60us393">Dred Scott v. Sandford</a> extended Southern racist ideology into the North. Black people, the court held, are “so far inferior that they had no rights which the white man was bound to respect, and … the negro might justly and lawfully be reduced to slavery.”</p>
<p>The following year, in his campaign for the U. S. Senate, Abraham Lincoln sounded the alarm. He addressed the consequences of slavery on America’s democracy and warned that “<a href="https://www.nps.gov/liho/learn/historyculture/housedivided.htm">a house divided against itself cannot stand</a>.” </p>
<p>“This government cannot endure,” he said, “permanently half slave and half free. It will become all one thing, or all the other. Either the opponents of slavery will arrest the further spread of it … or its advocates will push it forward till it shall become alike lawful in all the States, old as well as new, North as well as South.”</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569676/original/file-20240116-15-ho7zat.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="In this black-and-white photograph, a white man dressed in a dark suit sits in a chair with his hands on his lap." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569676/original/file-20240116-15-ho7zat.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569676/original/file-20240116-15-ho7zat.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=738&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569676/original/file-20240116-15-ho7zat.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=738&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569676/original/file-20240116-15-ho7zat.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=738&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569676/original/file-20240116-15-ho7zat.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=927&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569676/original/file-20240116-15-ho7zat.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=927&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569676/original/file-20240116-15-ho7zat.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=927&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">An 1860 portrait of Abraham Lincoln.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/abraham-lincoln-may-20-1860-salted-paper-print-from-glass-news-photo/1215985241?adppopup=true">Sepia Times/Universal Images Group via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>The Civil War was supposed to end slavery and the white supremacist ideology that underpinned it. The <a href="https://guides.loc.gov/13th-amendment">13th</a>, <a href="https://guides.loc.gov/14th-amendment">14th</a> and <a href="https://guides.loc.gov/15th-amendment">15th Amendments</a>, known as the <a href="https://www.pbs.org/tpt/slavery-by-another-name/themes/reconstruction-amendments/">Reconstruction amendments</a>, made equality explicit in the Constitution, extending civil and political rights to newly freed African Americans. </p>
<p>That upended the Southern social order.</p>
<p>The South then invented what Biden called the “<a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2024-01-08/biden-links-trump-election-denialism-confederate-lost-cause">self-serving lie</a>” of the “<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/08/growing-up-in-the-shadow-of-the-confederacy/537501/">Lost Cause</a>,” the rewritten version of the Civil War that claims <a href="https://avalon.law.yale.edu/19th_century/csa_csa.asp">slavery</a> had nothing to do with the war. The white supremacist group Ku Klux Klan was <a href="https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/ideology/ku-klux-klan">the violent hammer</a> of this “Lost Cause,” and its emergence coincided with <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/freedom-riders-jim-crow-laws/">Jim Crow laws</a> that established racial segregation across the South and disenfranchised Black voters until the 1960s.</p>
<h2>Democracies in peril</h2>
<p>In his State of the Union address on Jan. 6, 1941, President Franklin Delano Roosevelt sounded a new alarm. His “<a href="https://voicesofdemocracy.umd.edu/fdr-the-four-freedoms-speech-text/">Four Freedoms</a>” speech was an updated version of Lincoln’s and further defined freedom within a democracy.</p>
<p>The immediate issue was whether the U.S. should help England and other European allies defend against the <a href="https://www.historians.org/about-aha-and-membership/aha-history-and-archives/gi-roundtable-series/pamphlets/em-18-what-is-the-future-of-italy-(1945)/the-rise-and-fall-of-fascism">fascist regimes</a> of German Nazi leader Adolf Hitler and Italian dictator Benito Mussolini.</p>
<p>This was no academic question of foreign policy. In helping Britain, President Roosevelt stated, the United States was fighting for the universal freedoms that all people possessed: freedom of speech, freedom of religion, freedom from want and freedom from fear.</p>
<p>Biden has rung a similiar alarm. During his speech at Mother Emanuel church – and again during other campaign stops before the <a href="https://www.usvotefoundation.org/south-carolina-election-dates-and-deadlines">Feb. 3 Democratic Party primary in South Carolina</a> – Biden acknowledged that he is not only running against the GOP front-runner Donald Trump but also against a “second lost cause” myth. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=360t4mRmPcA">Biden called out Trump</a> for his “big lie” about the 2020 election that Trump has repeatedly claim was “rigged” against him. He criticized those who he said are attempting to “steal history” again and spin <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-67889403">the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection</a> as “a peaceful protest.” </p>
<p>At its core, Biden warned, Trump’s campaign slogan, “Make America Great Again,” is a resurrection of southern-style white nationalism and the age-old disregard for equal rights. </p>
<p>“<a href="https://www.instagram.com/joebiden/reel/C1x2_oVt0cg/">We all know who Donald Trump is</a>,” Biden said during his speech and in his ads, calling on Americans to work to make up for centuries of racism and discrimination “The question we have to answer is who are we?”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220814/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joseph Patrick Kelly volunteers for the Charleston County (SC) Democratic Party. </span></em></p>During a campaign speech in South Carolina, President Biden made it clear that he is not only running against Donald Trump but also against white supremacy.Joseph Patrick Kelly, Professor of Literature and Director of Irish and Irish American Studies, College of CharlestonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2201742024-01-16T13:25:01Z2024-01-16T13:25:01Z1 good thing about the Iowa caucuses, and 3 that are really troubling<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568921/original/file-20240111-19-ds4fma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=112%2C49%2C2238%2C1515&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump appears at a Fox News town hall in Des Moines, Iowa on Jan. 10, 2024. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-presidential-candidate-former-president-donald-news-photo/1923679596?adppopup=true">Joe Raedle/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Every four years, the Iowa caucuses find new ways to become a problematic part of the presidential nomination process. Democrats have abandoned the Iowa-first tradition, at least for 2024, but Republicans went full speed ahead with the caucuses on Jan. 15, 2024.</p>
<p>If they were being honest, most politicians and political experts who are not from Iowa – and not planning to curry favor with Iowans someday – would concede that this caucus-first system is <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/iowa-caucuses-predict-president-history/story?id=106131420">far from the best way</a> to start to select a presidential nominee, especially considering the low voter turnout in an overwhelmingly white state. But changing old, familiar processes is never easy, particularly during these highly contentious times. </p>
<p>Even so, candidates who talk about the traditional first caucus state sometimes make a political misstep by being honest. </p>
<p>Earlier this month, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/04/us/politics/iowa-new-hampshire-primary-haley.html">Republican candidate Nikki Haley</a> dissed Iowa, telling a New Hampshire audience that their state primary that occurs after the Iowa caucuses would correct the mistakes made in Iowa. “You know Iowa starts it,” she said. “You know that you correct it.”</p>
<p>That’s the sort of thing a candidate trying to do well in Iowa says after the caucuses – not before.</p>
<p>With such honesty, it’s not surprising that former President <a href="https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/primaries-and-caucuses/results/iowa/republican-presidential-primary">Donald Trump</a> earned 51% of the vote while GOP rivals Ron DeSantis could muster only 21% and Nikki Haley 19%. Further helping Trump was the shrinking field of GOP candidates that saw former Vice President <a href="https://apnews.com/article/mike-pence-2024-president-campaign-republican-trump-0ec44fc2a5b8683f34883e0ea72b2ab2">Mike Pence</a>, former New Jersey Gov. <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/chris-christie-drops-2024-presidential-race-rcna127993">Chris Christie</a> and U.S. Senator <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/sen-tim-scott-drops-out-of-2024-presidential-race-shocking-donors-and-campaign-staff">Tim Scott</a> of South Carolina all drop out before the caucuses.</p>
<h2>Iowa’s upside for long-shot candidates</h2>
<p>Iowans, as well as residents of the traditional <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/new-hampshire-primary-date-2024-elections-first-in-the-nation-democrats/">first primary state of New Hampshire</a>, try to argue that their <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2022/10/27/iowa-poll-most-iowans-think-iowa-caucuses-should-remain-first/69561842007/">small-state selection processes</a> represent some of the last vestiges of <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1957/12/norman-rockwells-america/640584/">Norman Rockwell’s America</a>, where deliberate, sober voters offer a grateful nation the carefully considered <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/news/new-hampshire-primary-president-joe-biden-gov-chris-sununu/">assessments of candidates</a> that come from community meetings too numerous to count. </p>
<p>That part of the argument is largely true – caucusgoers and voters in both states seem to take the process of evaluating potential presidents <a href="https://wcfcourier.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/iowans-take-voting-seriously/article_117b21cf-afa2-53f7-a996-e89976f136dd.html">very seriously</a>.</p>
<p>Fans of the Iowa caucuses also note that <a href="https://www.cjonline.com/story/news/politics/2023/09/24/lesser-known-republican-presidential-candidates-hope-iowa-caucuses-lift-their-chances/70924419007/">lesser-known candidates</a> can compete without having huge campaign war chests or political experience. But how is being inexperienced in government or being unpopular with party donors considered a good things for selecting presidents? </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A brown-skinned man holds a microphone as dozens of white people listen to his campaign speech." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568684/original/file-20240110-21-yws4jr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568684/original/file-20240110-21-yws4jr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568684/original/file-20240110-21-yws4jr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568684/original/file-20240110-21-yws4jr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568684/original/file-20240110-21-yws4jr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568684/original/file-20240110-21-yws4jr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568684/original/file-20240110-21-yws4jr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy speaks in Decorah, Iowa, on Jan. 7, 2024.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-presidential-candidate-businessman-vivek-news-photo/1915569886?adppopup=true">Scott Olson/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>This year, Republican entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy’s <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/02/politics/cnn-iowa-debate-qualified/index.html">star faded quickly</a>, and he failed to qualify for the final pre-Iowa debate hosted by CNN at Drake University in Des Moines. Ramaswamy could only <a href="https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/primaries-and-caucuses/results/iowa/republican-presidential-primary">pull in 7%</a> of Iowa caucus voters despite his boasts of visiting each of Iowa’s 99 counties, a feat officially known as a “<a href="https://politicaldictionary.com/words/full-grassley/">full Grassley</a>,” named for Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley.</p>
<p>That’s part of a pattern for previous shooting stars in Iowa, including <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN20107Z/">Pete Buttigieg</a> in 2020, <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/caucus/2015/10/23/ben-carson-charges-9-points-ahead-of-donald-trump-iowa-poll-gop/74278414/">Ben Carson</a> in 2016, <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2012/01/21/145553419/iowa-gop-officially-declares-santorum-the-iowa-caucus-winner">Rick Santorum</a> in 2012, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSWAT008623/">Mike Huckabee</a> in 2008 and <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/dean-scream-remembering-infamous-iowa-caucus-speech/story?id=36711830">Howard Dean</a> in 2004. </p>
<p>They didn’t last all that long after Iowa. And in some cases, they began to flame out before the caucuses.</p>
<h2>Modern-day media realities</h2>
<p>Despite all the small-town narratives, Iowa’s caucus season increasingly has become a media-saturated process just like everything else in American politics.</p>
<p>And running in Iowa costs far more than in the past. </p>
<p>In the 2024 presidential campaign, Republican campaigns spent more than <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/republicans-spend-100-million-iowa-ads-come-rcna130856">US$100 million</a> on 2024 Iowa caucuses advertising, which amounts to about $600 for every Republican caucus participant. In the 2020 presidential campaign, the total amount of ad spending was <a href="https://www.kwwl.com/news/2020-political-ad-spending-how-much-was-spent/article_13729727-896a-505c-90fb-f08159f56b28.html">$44 million</a> – and that included spending from Democratic and Republican candidates. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman wearing a red dress holda a microphone in front of a sign that says Fox News Democracy '24." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568728/original/file-20240110-31-oznma0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568728/original/file-20240110-31-oznma0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568728/original/file-20240110-31-oznma0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568728/original/file-20240110-31-oznma0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568728/original/file-20240110-31-oznma0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568728/original/file-20240110-31-oznma0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568728/original/file-20240110-31-oznma0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley participates in a Fox News town hall in Des Moines, Iowa, on Jan. 8, 2024.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-presidential-candidate-former-u-n-ambassador-news-photo/1918255110?adppopup=true">Win McNamee/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>The media’s outsized role involves more than just receiving inflated campaign spending. The fact that reporters focus on <a href="https://journalistsresource.org/politics-and-government/horse-race-reporting-election/">horse-race dynamics</a> and downplay issues has long been a problem that diminishes interest and voter turnout, as media scholar <a href="https://communication.gmu.edu/people/slichter">S. Robert Lichter</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=WzUF8jAAAAAJ">I</a> demonstrated in our 2010 book “<a href="https://rowman.com/ISBN/9781442200678/The-Nightly-News-Nightmare-Media-Coverage-of-U.S.-Presidential-Elections-1988-2008-Third-Edition">The Nightly News Nightmare</a>.”</p>
<p>Those who defend Iowa and New Hampshire say they are more accessible to lesser-known and inexperienced candidates, but national polling and fundraising, as well as media coverage, are increasingly used as criteria determining who can effectively participate in these small-state processes and who can’t.</p>
<h2>Long-standing flaws</h2>
<p>Another problem with Iowa is the <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2020/01/31/what-to-know-about-the-iowa-caucuses/">low level of turnout</a>, despite the state’s privileged position. The largest Republican caucus turnout was 180,000 voters in 2016, and the best year for <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2020/02/07/election-2020-democratic-iowa-caucuses-turnout-eclipsed-2016-fell-short-2008/4691004002/">Democratic turnout</a> was 240,000 voters in 2008, when Barack Obama defeated Hillary Clinton. </p>
<p>Neither number is all that impressive in a state with a population of <a href="https://publications.iowa.gov/135/1/profile/8-14.html#">nearly 3 million people</a> and about <a href="https://independentvoterproject.org/voter-stats/ia">2 million registered voters</a>, of whom about 630,000 are registered Republicans. If Iowa switched to a primary, which would allow a daylong window for voting, evidence demonstrates there would be a lot more participation. Here’s why. </p>
<p>With limited exceptions, Iowa caucuses require a voter to appear in person during the evening in the middle of winter. This year, that meant at 7 p.m. on an evening that hit below-zero temperatures and heavy snow. Even for Iowans accustomed to the cold, turnout was lower as a result.</p>
<p>But unlike a caucus, a primary allows a person to devote only a few minutes to vote via mail or in person at a convenient time and place.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A white man carres his daughter on his shoulders as he walks with hundreds of other white people." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568710/original/file-20240110-27-4k757a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568710/original/file-20240110-27-4k757a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568710/original/file-20240110-27-4k757a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568710/original/file-20240110-27-4k757a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568710/original/file-20240110-27-4k757a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568710/original/file-20240110-27-4k757a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568710/original/file-20240110-27-4k757a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Republican presidential candidate Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida carries his daughter Madison while walking through the Iowa State Fair in Des Moines on Aug. 12, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-presidential-candidate-florida-gov-ron-desantis-news-photo/1610098448?adppopup=true">Brandon Bell/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Aside from the convenience factor, the major problem with the Iowa caucuses is that the state does not remotely look like America.</p>
<p>According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the vast majority – <a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/states/iowa-population">88%</a> – of Iowans are white. For the U.S. as a whole, that figure is about <a href="https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/US/PST045222">75%</a>. What that means is that caucus results may not be reflective of the nation as a whole but merely a snapshot of a certain small-town, folksy part of America.</p>
<h2>Vote-counting delays</h2>
<p>Maybe some of these problems could be excused if the process worked well. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/06/upshot/iowa-caucuses-errors-results.html">it does not</a>.</p>
<p>Despite decades of experience in running caucuses, Iowa has demonstrated that it frequently cannot count. The New York Times described the 2020 Iowa caucuses as an “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/09/us/politics/iowa-democratic-caucuses.html">epic meltdown</a>,” as results were not finalized for days.</p>
<p>The 2024 process went smoothly, but the 2020 caucuses weren’t the first to have problems. The 2012 Republican contest also suffered from <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/report-santorum-finished-34-votes-ahead-of-%20romney-in-new-iowa-tally-votes-from-8-precincts-missing/2012/01/19/gIQAJGuRAQ_story.html">counting misfires</a> that took two weeks to resolve. </p>
<p>A delay in reporting results is not necessarily a bad thing. One wants to ensure accuracy, and delays of days for election results are normal in closely fought contests. But Iowa has demonstrated that its caucuses seem to generate more problems when it comes to reporting results than primaries do.</p>
<p>Democrats <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/iowa-politics-democrats-republican-campaign-1d624898">abandoned the 2024 Iowa caucuses</a> following the 2020 mess there and perhaps in part because President Joe Biden could hardly feel positively about the caucus system after <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2020/02/05/joe-biden-calls-4th-place-iowa-caucus-finish-gut-punch/4669943002/">his fourth-place finish</a> there in 2020.</p>
<p>This year, the Democratic process effectively bypasses Iowa and New Hampshire and starts with the South Carolina primary.</p>
<h2>A possible alternative?</h2>
<p>How might one fix these issues?</p>
<p>Well, scholars suggest a range of alternatives, including a <a href="https://www.routledge.com/The-Imperfect-Primary-Oddities-Biases-and-%20Strengths-of-US-Presidential/Norrander/p/book/9780367274948">one-day, nationwide primary</a>, a small-state-first system that groups states of similar population sizes, or perhaps a series of five or so multistate regional primary contests, with the order of the regional groups determined by lottery. </p>
<p>None of these alternatives seems likely to happen, though, and that means the various problems with the Iowa caucus process will continue, regardless of which party is conducting one.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220174/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen J. Farnsworth does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Iowa caucuses have long been an oddity in modern-day politics but remain a place where GOP candidates can test their presidential aspirations.Stephen J. Farnsworth, Professor of Political Science and Director, Center for Leadership and Media Studies, University of Mary WashingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1969312023-02-05T12:59:32Z2023-02-05T12:59:32ZDiversity and moderation over tradition – why Democrats moved South Carolina to the start of the 2024 presidential campaign<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507604/original/file-20230201-19-hh4kqw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Caucusgoers stand beneath the sign for the South Carolina delegation at the Democratic National Convention.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-sign-for-the-south-carolina-delegation-is-shown-at-the-news-photo/151273780?adppopup=true">Bill Clark /CQ-Roll Call, Inc. via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Democratic National Committee <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/04/us/politics/democrats-vote-primary-calendar.html?partner=slack&smid=sl-share">approved a proposal</a> on Feb. 4, 2023, that puts South Carolina first on the party’s presidential nominating calendar, upending 50 years of tradition. For the first time, voters of color, moderates, hourly workers – and Southerners – will have the first say in choosing the party’s nominee. </p>
<p>President Biden weighed in on changes to the nominating calendar in a <a href="https://democrats.org/news/president-bidens-letter-to-the-dncs-rules-and-bylaws-committee-on-the-presidential-nominating-process/">Dec. 1, 2022, letter to the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee </a>. He wrote that early nominating states should reflect the diversity of the party and nation and that <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Caucus">time-consuming caucuses</a>, like those held in Iowa, should no longer be a part of the process because they <a href="https://about.bgov.com/news/what-to-know-in-washington-biden-signals-move-from-iowa-caucus/">disadvantage hourly workers</a> and others who can’t take the required time away from work.</p>
<p>“For decades, Black voters in particular have been the backbone of the Democratic Party but have been pushed to the back of the early primary process,” he wrote. “We rely on these voters in elections but have not recognized their importance in our nominating calendar. It is time to stop taking these voters for granted, and time to give them a louder and earlier voice in the process.”</p>
<p>The new early-state lineup shakes up the old order. Instead of Iowa, then New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/01/politics/2024-primary-calendar-iowa-dnc/index.html">it puts South Carolina first</a>, followed by Nevada and New Hampshire a few days later, then Georgia and Michigan. Iowa, which has kicked off the process since 1972, is noticeably absent from the early voting.</p>
<p>The lineup drew criticism from party leaders in <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2022/12/02/democrats-iowa-new-hampshire-could-rebel-against-democratic-presidential-nominating-calendar/69695784007/">both Iowa</a> and <a href="https://www.nhdp.org/post/nhdp-chair-ray-buckley-releases-response-to-dnc-primary-demands">New Hampshire</a>. And the DNC had to grant <a href="https://newhampshirebulletin.com/2023/01/25/national-dems-give-new-hampshire-georgia-more-time-to-change-2024-primary-dates/">Georgia and New Hampshire more time to change their primary dates</a>. If ultimately they are unable to meet the new deadline of June 3, 2023, they will lose the ability to <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/06/politics/democrats-primary-calendar-new-hampshire-georgia/index.html">hold a DNC-approved early nominating contest</a>. The states’ party leaders, though, say the challenges they face are not easily solvable.</p>
<p>In Georgia, primary dates are <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/12/15/1143050569/georgia-democratic-presidential-primary">determined by the secretary of state’s office</a>, not state party leaders. In New Hampshire, state officials and Democrats have said <a href="https://www.wbur.org/news/2022/12/16/new-hampshire-dnc-biden-presidential-primary">they will follow state law and hold their primary first</a>, regardless of the DNC calendar. But bucking the DNC’s nominating calendar opens up the state Democratic Party to sanctions, including <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/04/dnc-presidential-primary-calendar-00081206">the automatic loss of half its delegates</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507606/original/file-20230201-9697-bz77s1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A suited man stands with his back to the camera, facing an ethnically diverse group of men and women holding signs that read 'South Carolina for Biden during the 2020 presidential primary process.'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507606/original/file-20230201-9697-bz77s1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507606/original/file-20230201-9697-bz77s1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507606/original/file-20230201-9697-bz77s1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507606/original/file-20230201-9697-bz77s1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507606/original/file-20230201-9697-bz77s1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507606/original/file-20230201-9697-bz77s1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507606/original/file-20230201-9697-bz77s1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Then-Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden speaks at a town hall meeting in Sumter, South Carolina.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/democratic-presidential-candidate-joe-biden-speaks-at-a-news-photo/1203968319?adppopup=true">Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>As <a href="https://polisci.cofc.edu/about/faculty-staff-listing/ragusa-jordan.php">political scientists in South Carolina</a>, we understand how important the state’s primary is to the Democratic Party. <a href="https://polisci.cofc.edu/about/faculty-staff-listing/knotts-gibbs.php">Working at the College of Charleston</a> for over a decade, we have seen dozens of campaign visits and events by presidential hopefuls of both parties to our city and campus. </p>
<p>Given our front-row seats, we wrote “<a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctvgs0bd2">First in South: Why South Carolina’s Presidential Primary Matters</a>,” a book about South Carolina’s primary process. Published in 2020, it examines South Carolina’s demographic makeup, the state’s primary electorate and how it compares with each party’s typical national primary and caucus voter.</p>
<p>What we learned was, on several key metrics, South Carolina voters are a better reflection of the demographic diversity and moderate stance on issues the party prioritizes than voters in Iowa and New Hampshire.</p>
<h2>It’s about diversity</h2>
<p>For <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctvgs0bd2">our analysis</a>, we used presidential primary <a href="https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/primaries/polls/ny/Dem">exit poll data similar to the data reported by CNN, from every state</a> from 2000 to 2016. We compared each state’s demographic profile with the Republican and Democratic parties’ national averages on 12 common exit poll questions – including age, education level, income, race and views on specific issues – to get a picture of the South Carolina electorate and how it compares with typical voters of both parties.</p>
<p>First, and perhaps most obvious, the Democratic electorate in Iowa and New Hampshire is less than 5% Black. South Carolina’s Democratic primary electorate is far more diverse, at over 50% Black. Exit polls during the 2016 presidential primary elections also showed the drastic differences in the demographic makeup of <a href="https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/primaries/polls/sc/dem">South Carolina</a> and <a href="https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/primaries/polls/ia/Dem">Iowa</a>. </p>
<p>Racial diversity is an important factor, given that Black voters are a critically important constituency in the modern Democratic Party. For example, <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/06/02/in-changing-u-s-electorate-race-and-education-remain-stark-dividing-lines/">87% of Black women who are registered voters identify with the Democratic Party</a>. Overall, 4 in 10 registered Democratic voters are nonwhite.</p>
<h2>Moderation is key</h2>
<p>What’s more, South Carolina Democrats are ideologically moderate on both economic and social issues, which makes it is harder for extreme candidates to win the state’s primary. By comparison, <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctvgs0bd2">Democrats in Iowa and New Hampshire are more liberal</a> than the average Democratic voter nationally.</p>
<p>For example, in 2020, CNN’s exit polls showed that 57% of Iowa’s Democratic caucus voters supported <a href="https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/primaries-caucuses/entrance-and-exit-polls/iowa/democratic">a government-run health insurance plan</a>. Nationally, only <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/468401/majority-say-gov-ensure-healthcare.aspx">42% of Americans say they support such a plan</a>, according to data from Gallup. In this respect, Iowa’s Democratic electorate is out of step with the mainstream. </p>
<p>South Carolina’s Democratic primary voters are much better aligned on this key issue, with <a href="https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/primaries-caucuses/entrance-and-exit-polls/south-carolina/democratic">49% saying they support a government-run health care plan</a>, according to the same CNN exit polls.</p>
<h2>South Carolina is a bellwether</h2>
<p>South Carolina’s ideological moderation and racial diversity were key to Biden’s comeback in the 2020 Democratic primary. After losing in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/joe-biden-wins-south-carolina-primary-potentially-reshaping-the-democratic-race/2020/02/29/20117978-5b0e-11ea-ab68-101ecfec2532_story.html">Biden won South Carolina</a> with twice the vote of his nearest competitor, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. </p>
<p>Our <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctvgs0bd2">analysis of results</a>, dating back to 1980, shows that South Carolina has a strong record of picking winners in Democratic contests. Since 2004, when the state secured the first Democratic primary in the South, <a href="https://scvotes.gov/elections-statistics/election-results/">voters have backed the eventual nominee</a> each time, with one exception. In the state’s lone miss in 2004, John Edwards of neighboring North Carolina <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/03/politics/campaign/edwards-wins-primary-in-south-carolina-lieberman-quits.html">won the South Carolina primary</a>, but John Kerry went on to secure the party’s nomination. </p>
<p>The plan approved by the DNC on Feb. 4 removes caucus states from the early part of the process and puts Democrats on a different presidential nominating schedule from Republicans, who are <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/04/us/politics/democrats-vote-primary-calendar.html?partner=slack&smid=sl-share">maintaining the order of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada</a>. Party leaders from New Hampshire and Iowa appealed, unsuccessfully, to the DNC to reconsider the plan before the final vote. The reputation of Iowa Democrats’ caucus system, of course, took a hit after results of the 2020 presidential contest were significantly <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/12/politics/iowa-caucus-review/index.html">delayed because of technical problems and reporting issues</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508123/original/file-20230203-12645-7qjkit.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A suited man stands on stage, with his right hand on a lectern and speaking into a microphone. Behind him on his left is a screen with the message, Results Available at results.thecaucuses.org. And, to his right another screen bears the red, blue and white logo of the Iowa Caucuses." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508123/original/file-20230203-12645-7qjkit.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508123/original/file-20230203-12645-7qjkit.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508123/original/file-20230203-12645-7qjkit.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508123/original/file-20230203-12645-7qjkit.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508123/original/file-20230203-12645-7qjkit.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508123/original/file-20230203-12645-7qjkit.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508123/original/file-20230203-12645-7qjkit.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Troy Price, then chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party, addresses the media about the technical issues that delayed results of the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/chairman-of-the-iowa-democratic-party-troy-price-speaks-news-photo/1198667347?adppopup=true">Joshua Lott/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>A look ahead</h2>
<p>In our view, South Carolina’s first-in-nation position is well deserved. It’s not just about voters’ diversity and moderation on issues. The state’s open primary system permits people to participate in one primary or another, regardless of party affiliation. And its Saturday primaries make it easier for hourly workers to take part.</p>
<p>But there is also reason for South Carolina Democrats to exercise caution. As their counterparts in Iowa and New Hampshire rightly point out, hosting the first caucus or primary is a substantial endeavor for party leaders and citizens alike. Iowa’s inability to declare a winner for weeks after its caucus in 2020 is a cautionary tale.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/196931/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Democratic National Committee is shaking up its presidential nominating calendar to give people of color an earlier vote in the process.Gibbs Knotts, Professor of Political Science and Dean of the School of Humanities and Social Sciences, College of CharlestonJordan Ragusa, Associate Professor and Associate Chair of Department of Political Science, College of CharlestonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1325592020-02-28T14:05:53Z2020-02-28T14:05:53ZHow one man fought South Carolina Democrats to end whites-only primaries – and why that matters now<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317666/original/file-20200227-24668-xhaypd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=76%2C85%2C1879%2C1511&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">George and Laura Elmore (left) voting after wining a landmark case ending white-only primaries in South Carolina</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://civilrights.sc.edu/">University of South Carolina Civil Rights Center</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A rusting chain-link fence represents a “color line” for the dead in Columbia, South Carolina. In Randolph Cemetery, separated by the barrier from the well-manicured lawn of the neighboring white graveyard, lies the remains of George A. Elmore.</p>
<p>A black business owner and civil rights activist, Elmore is little remembered despite his achievement. But a granite monument at his grave attests to the “unmatched courage, perseverance and personal sacrifice” that saw him take on the South Carolina Democratic Party of the 1940s over its whites-only primaries – and win.</p>
<p>Nearly 75 years after Elmore’s battle, the 2020 Democratic presidential candidates made <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/biden-faces-competition-black-vote-firewall-sc-68861978">fervent appeals to African American voters</a> in South Carolina ahead of the primary being held on Feb. 29. For some of the all white front-runners in the race, it could be a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/joe-biden-meets-his-make-or-break-moment-in-south-carolina/2020/02/26/59256c22-58ae-11ea-ab68-101ecfec2532_story.html">make-or-break moment</a> – a failure to win over sufficient black support would be a major setback, potentially campaign-ending.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317667/original/file-20200227-24664-okadgs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317667/original/file-20200227-24664-okadgs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317667/original/file-20200227-24664-okadgs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=843&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317667/original/file-20200227-24664-okadgs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=843&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317667/original/file-20200227-24664-okadgs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=843&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317667/original/file-20200227-24664-okadgs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1060&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317667/original/file-20200227-24664-okadgs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1060&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317667/original/file-20200227-24664-okadgs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1060&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">George Elmore in front of his Store.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://civilrights.sc.edu/">University of South Carolina Civil Rights Center</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>It is a far cry from the South Carolina of August 1946, when Elmore, a fair-skinned, straight-haired manager of a neighborhood five-and-dime store, consulted with local civil rights leaders and agreed to try once again to register to vote.</p>
<p>It followed blatant attempts to deprive African American citizens of their constitutional rights by white Democratic Party officials who would move voter registration books from store to store and hide them the moment a black voter entered.</p>
<p>When a clerk mistakenly allowed Elmore to register – thinking he was white, contemporary sources suggest – NAACP activists had a plaintiff to challenge the last whites-only primary in the nation.</p>
<h2>‘Let the chips fall’</h2>
<p>Excluding black voters at the ballot had already been ruled unconstitutional by the U.S. Supreme Court in 1944’s <a href="https://www.naacpldf.org/case-issue/landmark-smith-v-allwright">Smith v. Allwright</a> decision. But in defiance, the South Carolina General Assembly simply redefined the state’s Democratic Party as a private club not subject to laws regulating primaries. <a href="https://casetext.com/case/elmore-v-rice">Gov. Olin D. Johnston declared</a>: “White supremacy will be maintained in our primaries. Let the chips fall where they may.”</p>
<p>Elmore’s name was promptly purged from the rolls and a cadre of prominent civil rights activists arranged for the NAACP to plead his case.</p>
<p>Columbia civil rights attorney Harold Boulware filed the <a href="https://law.justia.com/cases/federal/district-courts/FSupp/72/516/2238812/">federal lawsuit</a>. In June 1947, Thurgood Marshall and Robert Carter – like Boulware, graduates of the Howard University School of Law – argued Elmore’s case as a class lawsuit covering all African Americans in the state of voting age. The trial inspired a packed gallery of African American observers, including a young <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Matthew-James-Perry-Jr">Matthew J. Perry Jr.</a>, a future federal district judge, who commented: “Marshall and Carter were hitting it where it should be hit.”</p>
<p>In July, an unlikely ally, Charleston blueblood <a href="https://unexampledcourage.com">Judge J. Waties Waring</a> agreed, ruling that African Americans must be permitted to enroll. “It is time for South Carolina to rejoin the Union,” he concluded. “It is time … to adopt the American way of conducting elections.” </p>
<p>The state Democratic Party again defied the ruling, requiring voters to sign an oath supporting segregation. Judge Waring issued a <a href="https://law.justia.com/cases/federal/district-courts/FSupp/80/1017/1868993/">permanent injunction in 1948</a> to open the voting rolls: “To say that these rules conform or even pretend to conform to the law as laid down in the case of Elmore v. Rice is an absurdity.” </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317668/original/file-20200227-24668-1qy686e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317668/original/file-20200227-24668-1qy686e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317668/original/file-20200227-24668-1qy686e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317668/original/file-20200227-24668-1qy686e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317668/original/file-20200227-24668-1qy686e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317668/original/file-20200227-24668-1qy686e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317668/original/file-20200227-24668-1qy686e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Voters in Columbia, August 1948.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://digital.tcl.sc.edu/digital/collection/mccrayjh/id/9271/rec/6">South Caroliniana Library, University of South Carolina</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In that year’s state primary, more than 30,000 African Americans, including George Elmore and his wife Laura, voted. Elmore remarked, “In the words of our other champion, Joe Louis, all I can say is ‘I’m glad I won.’” </p>
<p>His <a href="https://digital.tcl.sc.edu/digital/collection/mccrayjh/id/9271/rec/6">photos</a> of the long line of voters in his community’s precinct are now in the archives of the University of South Carolina <a href="https://www.sc.edu/study/colleges_schools/artsandsciences/history/our_people/directory/donaldson_bobby.php">where I teach history</a>.</p>
<p>In the years that followed, <a href="http://www.processhistory.org/voter-education-project/">voter education</a> and <a href="https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=4788322">registration programs</a> by civil rights organizations transformed the Democratic Party in the state, both in terms of the makeup of its membership and the policies it pursued. The move sparked the departure of many white Democrats to the Republican Party, including the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2003/06/27/us/strom-thurmond-foe-of-integration-dies-at-100.html">segregationist Sen. Strom Thurmond</a>.</p>
<p>Thurmond’s defection in 1964 legitimized the move for other white Democrats and hard-core segregationists who aligned themselves with an increasingly conservative Republican Party. Not surprisingly, some of the key architects of Richard Nixon’s invidious <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2019/07/26/what-we-get-wrong-about-southern-strategy/">Southern strategy</a>, which sought to weaken the Democratic Party in the South through the use of dog-whistle politics on racial issues, came from South Carolina.</p>
<p>As this year’s presidential candidates focus on South Carolina, it is clear that the racial makeup of the state’s electorate is <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2020/01/31/just-how-demographically-skewed-are-the-early-democratic-primary-states/">vastly different</a> than that in Iowa or New Hampshire, two of the states where the popularity of candidates has already been tested. But Democrats should view the South Carolina primary as more than a shift from voting in small, mostly white states. They should see the state as representative of the party’s strategic core, a strong African American constituency with diverse interests and perspectives.</p>
<p>African Americans in South Carolina have been fighting and winning legal and political battles for voting rights and electoral power <a href="https://slate.com/human-interest/2018/01/the-many-black-americans-who-held-public-office-during-reconstruction-in-southern-states-like-south-carolina.html">since Reconstruction</a> and as Democrats since the 1940s.</p>
<h2>A personal price</h2>
<p>After Elmore’s victory in 1947, state NAACP President James M. Hinton gave a somber, prophetic warning: “White men want office, and they want the vote of our people. We will be sought after, but we must be extremely careful who we vote for. … We must have a choice between those who have fought us and those who are our friends.”</p>
<p>George Elmore and his family paid a price for challenging the entrenched power of the white Democratic Party in 1946. In an interview with the University of South Carolina’s <a href="http://civilrights.sc.edu/">Center for Civil Rights History and Research</a>, which I lead, his 81-year-old son Cresswell Elmore recalled the retaliation the family experienced. Ku Klux Klan terrorists burned a cross in their yard and threatened their family. Laura Elmore suffered a nervous breakdown and went into a mental hospital. State agents raided Elmore’s liquor store, claiming the liquor he had bought from the standard wholesaler was illegal, and broke the bottles. Soda bottling companies and other vendors refused to send products on credit. Banks called in loans on their home and other property. Forced into bankruptcy, the family moved from house to house and the disruption scattered Cresswell and his siblings. When Elmore died in 1959 at the age of 53, only scant attention was paid to his passing.</p>
<p>The monument at his grave was unveiled in 1981, at a ceremony attended by civil rights veterans including his original attorney, Harold Boulware.</p>
<p>As the Democratic Party and presidential candidates appeal to African American voters, they would do well to remember the remarkable fight Elmore and others waged against the forces of bigotry and injustice. These historical struggles illuminate both the gains made over many generations and the ongoing battle against inequities and voter suppression tactics that persist to this day in South Carolina and across the nation.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/132559/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bobby J. Donaldson receives funding from National Park Service.</span></em></p>South Carolina’s black community has a long history of fighting for democratic rights.Bobby J. Donaldson, Associate Professor of History; Director Center for Civil Rights History and Research, University of South CarolinaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/554232016-02-26T21:28:12Z2016-02-26T21:28:12ZAfrican-American women could be decisive on Super Tuesday<p>As the Democratic nominating contest speeds up, African-American voters – especially women – have some tough, and influential, choices to make. </p>
<p>South Carolina is the first primary where African Americans are the majority of Democratic voters, controlling <a href="http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/south-carolinas-black-democrats-are-powerful-but-what-do-they-want/">55 percent</a> of the vote. That makes South Carolina a battleground for black votes, especially those of African-American women. </p>
<p>We know that victories in early primaries are important. Later voters often pick their candidate based on early primary outcomes. The South Carolina primary is perhaps as important as the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries because it could create momentum in subsequent contests where black votes will help candidates win.</p>
<p>As someone who has been researching this topic for the last 15 years, I believe both candidates are attractive to African-American voters.</p>
<p>These voters could perceive Sanders as better equipped to handle issues related to social welfare, unemployment and poverty, as well as affirmative action.</p>
<p>What might solidify black support for Clinton is a series of symbolic gestures. Perhaps the most influential is the latest campaign ad targeting black mothers who lost their children to violence. These symbolic appeals convey a knowledge of growing discontent in the African-American community, while also expressing concern for racial justice, which could be sufficient to capture the black vote. </p>
<h2>A critical voting block</h2>
<p>African-American voters are the <a href="http://jointcenter.org/sites/default/files/Blacks%20and%20the%202012%20Democratic%20National%20Convention.pdf">most loyal supporters</a> of the Democratic Party. Their support for Democratic presidential candidate Al Gore was 90 percent in 2000. In 2004, they voted for John Kerry by 88 percent. Barack Obama won an all-time high of 95 percent in 2008. </p>
<p>According to exit polls, black voters were 13 percent of the national electorate in 2008. They represented approximately one in every 4.25 Obama voters that same year. </p>
<p>Sixty-five percent, or 15.9 million, of voting-age African Americans cast a ballot in the general election, compared to 66.1 percent of white citizens. But, the voter turnout rate among eligible black female voters was 68.8 percent – the highest of all racial, ethnic and gender groups in the 2008 American presidential election. Especially in southern states with large black voting-eligible populations – including South Carolina, Mississippi, Georgia, North Carolina and Louisiana – the black female voter <a href="http://www.pewhispanic.org/2009/04/30/dissecting-the-2008-electorate-most-diverse-in-us-history/">outperformed</a> in terms of registration and turnout. </p>
<p>Since 1996, this gender gap has been <a href="http://www.census.gov/library/publications/2013/demo/p20-568.html">consistently present</a>. African-American women voted at higher rates than African-American men by a range of 7 or 8 percentage points in 2008. That rate was even higher – about 9 percentage points – in 2012, which is 6 percentage points higher than other racial groups.</p>
<p>But during the primary, when two choices are available, will African-American women vote for Sanders or Clinton? </p>
<p>To answer that, it helps to look at past presidential primaries. Historically, African-American women have supported the candidate perceived as best representing their interests – whether or not that candidate has a chance to win the nomination. </p>
<h2>Shirley came first</h2>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/113113/original/image-20160226-31023-22l9a3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/113113/original/image-20160226-31023-22l9a3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/113113/original/image-20160226-31023-22l9a3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113113/original/image-20160226-31023-22l9a3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113113/original/image-20160226-31023-22l9a3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113113/original/image-20160226-31023-22l9a3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113113/original/image-20160226-31023-22l9a3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113113/original/image-20160226-31023-22l9a3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Shirley Chisholm.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://history.house.gov/Collection/Detail/30296">Kadir Nelson</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>The election of Barack Obama in 2008 made American history, but prior campaigns paved the way, starting with Shirley Chisholm in 1972 and Jesse Jackson in the 1980s. </p>
<p>Some have forgotten, or are unaware, that Jesse Jackson won the South Carolina primary twice – in 1984 and 1988. In 2008, then-Senator Obama’s win in South Carolina brought Jackson’s run 20 years before back into the spotlight. </p>
<p>Rich with symbolic meaning and electoral consequence for future presidential hopefuls, Chisholm and Jackson demonstrated the progress African Americans made in the aftermath of the “protest phase” of the civil rights movement. </p>
<p>Understanding that black votes could mean the margin of victory for the eventual Democratic nominee, Chisholm and Jackson pursued “brokerage politics.” They turned this into the leverage needed to participate in behind-the-scenes bargaining for leadership roles at national party conventions, proposed changes to delegate selection procedures and eliminating the runoff primary in southern states. </p>
<p>As I argue in my book, <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/historic-firsts-9780199314188?cc=us&lang=en&">Historic Firsts: How Symbolic Empowerment Changes U.S. Politics</a>, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are indebted to this pioneer cohort. By being less system-challenging and more ideologically moderate than their predecessors, Clinton and Obama achieved viable electoral success in 2008. They adapted to the changing political landscape, but not without recognizing the importance of key voting constituencies. </p>
<p>Chisholm and Jackson brought formerly inactive people into the presidential selection process and got them involved in ways beyond voting. They sought to build coalitions comprising diverse groups – from women and racial minorities to the poor – while appealing directly to African-American voters. </p>
<p>Neither Chisholm nor Jackson really expected to win the Democratic nomination. Rather, they wanted to act as “brokers” who established the need for the eventual Democratic nominee to move left of center. Observers have since failed to consider the prophetic nature of this intervention. </p>
<p>Without Chisholm and Jackson, Obama could never have had his victory in 2008. </p>
<h2>First battleground for black votes</h2>
<p>So what path then will African-American voters take when it comes to selecting the next leader of the Democratic Party?</p>
<p>If they believe Sanders holds views closer to their own and would be more likely to champion their class interests, African-American women are faced with a dilemma. They are expected to show support for the women’s movement by voting for Clinton despite the movement’s history of blindness to issues of class. History shows that successes of the movement generally benefited privileged white women who profited from the economic exploitation of black women’s domestic labor. </p>
<p>Race and class identities help shape how one experiences being a woman. African-American women may be more likely to consider themselves part of a movement to combat economic inequalities. Clinton’s candidacy opposite Sanders’ draws attention to the way their intersectional identities can play a role in determining election outcomes. </p>
<p>African-American women, who grapple with a tension between the women’s liberation movement and black freedom struggle, hold the balance of power in several southern states. </p>
<p>Consider the controversial remarks made by Rep. <a href="http://www.ibtimes.com/bernie-sanders-john-lewis-controversy-supporters-attack-civil-rights-leader-twitter-2304563">John Lewis</a> of Georgia, feminist <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/arts-and-entertainment/wp/2016/02/07/gloria-steinem-is-apologizing-for-insulting-female-bernie-sanders-supporters/">Gloria Steinem</a>, and former Secretary of State <a href="http://time.com/4212577/madeleine-albright-hillary-clinton-special-place-hell-defends/">Madeleine Albright</a> over the two front-runners. </p>
<p>The call to support Clinton’s candidacy reflects an assumption that women and African-American voters would and should have a special affinity for the first viable female candidate for the U.S. presidency. Yet the reality of such an affinity, whether it be based on race or gender, is unproven.</p>
<p>That older women have made Clinton their preferred choice in 2016 is significant. What remains unclear is whether that choice is rooted in their shared gender identity or ideological distancing from Sanders. </p>
<p>It is reasonable to assume that the electoral prospects for Clinton have improved since Obama’s victory, which established a precedent for historic firsts. Rather than act as a broker, as did Chisholm and Jackson, Clinton has emerged once again as a viable candidate. Contrary to the conclusion one might draw from the Clinton campaign – that is, women rather than men would be more likely to support her candidacy – the real question is: which women?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/55423/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Evelyn M. Simien does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Black women turn out to vote like no other demographic group, and they overwhelmingly vote Democratic. So who are they going to back in the southern primaries?Evelyn M. Simien, Associate Professor of Political Science and Africana Studies, University of ConnecticutLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/544202016-02-24T12:55:17Z2016-02-24T12:55:17ZSouth Carolina’s painful legacy of racism endures to this day<p>As this year’s presidential primaries roll on, South Carolina has once again taken its place as the first primary in the South. As ever, it does so under the weight of a legacy of racism – and one that all too recently played out in tragic fashion. </p>
<p>On the evening of June 17 2015, a gunman <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/18/us/the-charleston-shooting-what-happened.html?_r=0">opened fire on congregants</a> gathered for a prayer meeting at the Emanuel African Methodist Episcopal Church in Charleston, South Carolina. The shooter killed nine people, including senior pastor and state senator Clemente C. Pinckney, and wounded one other. </p>
<p>The following morning, police arrested 21-year-old Dylann Roof. A self-proclaimed white supremacist, Roof reportedly later confessed that he had hoped his attack on the black church would act as the catalyst for a <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/dylann-roof-confesses-church-shooting-says-he-wanted-start-race-war-344797">race war</a>. His trial has yet to begin; his attorneys have said he will plead guilty only if the prosecution <a href="http://www.postandcourier.com/article/20160211/PC16/160219868/1177/with-death-penalty-decision-uncertain-judge-delays-dylann-roof-x2019-s-federal-trial">does not seek the death penalty</a>.</p>
<p>The attack’s target was profoundly symbolic. <a href="https://theconversation.com/emanuel-ame-has-long-been-a-target-for-hate-as-well-as-place-of-hope-43601">Mother Emanuel</a>, as it’s known, is home to the oldest independent black congregation in the US, and it has a historical tradition as a hub for black cultural and political activism. In 1822, church founder <a href="https://www.pbs.org/thisfarbyfaith/people/denmark_vesey.html">Denmark Vesey</a> was executed for plotting a slave insurrection. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2015/06/18/for-charlestons-emanuel-a-m-e-church-one-of-the-oldest-in-america-shooting-is-another-painful-chapter-in-long-history/">Martin Luther King</a> also used the church to push for black voting rights in 1962. </p>
<p>The massacre therefore not only claimed the lives of individual congregants, but also inflicted deep psychic wounds on the broader African American community beyond South Carolina’s borders.</p>
<p>The Charleston spree shooting also focused renewed attention on the persistence of hate groups in the US. According to the <a href="https://www.splcenter.org/issues/hate-and-extremism">Southern Poverty Law Center</a>, which monitors and campaigns against extremist organisations, there are 784 such groups currently active across the country. In South Carolina alone, this includes the neo-Confederate <a href="https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/group/league-south">League of the South</a> and the anti-immigrant <a href="https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/individual/roan-garcia-quintana">Americans Have Had Enough</a>.</p>
<p>While these extremist organisations are clearly a threat, it is not only on the political margins but also in the mainstream that race continues to be a source of conflict and controversy in the Palmetto State. </p>
<p>South Carolina, like the rest of the American South, has made considerable progress since the days of legalised discrimination and segregation. But the historical legacy of its race problems continues to impact on contemporary politics.</p>
<h2>From margins to mainstream</h2>
<p>When photographs of Roof posing with a Confederate battle flag were released, they renewed a long-running debate about what many regard as a symbol of unreconstructed white racism. </p>
<p>In January 2000, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2000/01/18/us/46000-march-on-south-carolina-capitol-to-bring-down-confederate-flag.html">46,000 people marched in protest</a> at the continued display of the flag on the dome of the South Carolina State House in Columbia. That demonstration, along with an <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/07/11/naacp-south-carolina-ban_n_7777356.html">economic boycott</a> of the state launched by the <a href="http://www.naacp.org/pages/naacp-history">National Association for the Advancement of Colored People</a> (NAACP), prompted legislators to <a href="https://partners.nytimes.com/library/national/race/041300race-ra.html">pass a bill</a> to relocate the flag to a site in the state grounds. The same year, public pressure led South Carolina to finally recognise Martin Luther King Day as a paid holiday – the last state in the Union to do so.</p>
<p>But it was only after the 2015 church shooting that state officials consented to the complete removal of the rebel flag. </p>
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<p>Race also looks set to be a big influence in this year’s South Carolina presidential primary. While the junior US Senator for South Carolina, Tim Scott, is a black Republican, African Americans are expected to turn out in overwhelming numbers for the Democrats, and more than 55% of the Democratic voting base in South Carolina is black. </p>
<p>Hillary Clinton badly needs to mobilise that vote in order to secure an emphatic victory in the Democratic primary and fire up what momentum she seems to have regained by <a href="https://theconversation.com/four-reasons-why-clintons-nevada-victory-is-important-55002">defeating her rival Bernie Sanders in Nevada</a>. She will hope that a win will prove she still has an impermeable “firewall” across the southern states, shutting the Vermont senator out of the race. </p>
<p>Sanders has recently secured <a href="http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/bernie-sanders-and-hillary-clinton-battle-over-black-endorsements">some endorsements</a> from prominent African American figures, but it would nonetheless be an astonishing feat if he manages to turn the tide of black votes that looks set to sweep Clinton to victory. Despite some searing critiques of her record on black issues, notably from academic and activist <a href="http://www.thenation.com/article/hillary-clinton-does-not-deserve-black-peoples-votes/">Michelle Alexander</a>, opinion polls <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2016/02/16/politics/south-carolina-poll-cnn-orc/">suggest</a> that Clinton holds a 40-point lead among the state’s black Democratic voters. </p>
<p>The former secretary of state has vigorously courted African American voters with campaign commercials emphasising the need for new investments in jobs and education to overturn “generations of neglect”. Conversely, with gun control such a concern for many African Americans after the Emanuel church shooting, Sanders’ equivocation on the issue is a serious electoral obstacle.</p>
<p>In stark contrast, Republican candidates are out to woo an angry and alienated white electorate resentful of what they see as an unrepresentative and out of touch political elite. </p>
<h2>Beyond black and white</h2>
<p>While the historical fault line between black and white remains an important influence on contemporary politics in South Carolina, the racial dynamics of the state have in recent years become more complicated. </p>
<p>South Carolina has the <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/09/03/latino-population-growth_n_3860441.html">second-fastest-growing Latino population</a> of all the states, after Alabama. Republican candidates have been <a href="https://theconversation.com/harsh-republican-immigration-rhetoric-is-invigorating-latino-voters-54682">struggling to appeal to this emerging electorate</a> because of their stance on immigration. Whoever wins the Republican nomination will face a serious challenge attracting Latino voters across the country. And while anti-immigrant firebrand frontrunner Donald Trump was long expected to have the biggest problem there, his showing in the Nevada caucuses saw him <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/2016/02/24/nevada-caucuses-results-donald-trump-latino-vote-chalian-sot.cnn">win with Latinos by a huge margin</a>, as Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio combined only just matched his performance there. </p>
<p>The race-baiting demagoguery of Trump in particular gives political succour to extremists who pose a violent threat to African Americans and Latinos. South Carolina was a <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-south-carolinas-republican-primary-is-such-a-dirty-brawl-54135">predictably ugly</a> stop on that journey. The state’s Republican leaders in the South fought a rearguard action against him, with the governor, Nikki Haley, eloquently arguing that “during anxious times, it can be tempting to follow the siren call of the angriest voices. We must resist this temptation”. </p>
<p>But with Trump storming to victory in both South Carolina and in the race for the nomination more generally, it remains to be seen whether reason will triumph over emotion.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/54420/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Clive Webb does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The votes in South Carolina’s presidential primaries are once again expected to fall along racial lines.Clive Webb, Professor Of Modern American History, University of SussexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/550012016-02-21T04:40:59Z2016-02-21T04:40:59ZTrump’s South Carolina victory could make him unstoppable in GOP race<p>The Republican establishment’s nightmare scenario got one step closer to fruition in South Carolina on Saturday night.</p>
<p>Donald Trump <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/21/us/politics/south-carolina-primary.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=span-abc-region&region=span-abc-region&WT.nav=span-abc-region">won the South Carolina GOP primary</a> in decisive fashion, carrying one-third of the vote in one of the most conservative states in the country. Florida Senator Marco Rubio and Texas Senator Ted Cruz lagged far behind, with each carrying only about 22 percent of the vote. </p>
<p>Trump’s victory in the Palmetto State gives him a commanding lead in the race for the Republican nomination. Indeed, if Trump can win South Carolina, he can win anywhere. </p>
<p>Here are five key takeaways from Trump’s South Carolina victory. </p>
<h2>1. Trump is connecting with evangelical voters</h2>
<p>One would not think that a <a href="http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/269235-trump-on-foul-language-ill-never-do-it-again">foul-mouthed</a>, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/19/us/politics/evangelicals-see-donald-trump-as-man-of-conviction-if-not-faith.html">thrice-married, New York billionaire and reality TV star</a> would resonate with arch-conservative voters in the Deep South.</p>
<p>But in South Carolina on Saturday, that’s exactly what happened. </p>
<p>Trump carried <a href="http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/sc/Rep">most major GOP constituencies</a> in South Carolina, including the two most important Republican demographics in the state: evangelical Christians and military veterans.</p>
<p>The key to Trump’s appeal resides in his relentless, biting and effective <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/06/us/politics/95000-words-many-of-them-ominous-from-donald-trumps-tongue.html">rhetorical attacks</a> on <a href="http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/la-na-republicans-south-carolina-20160220-story.html">the Washington establishment</a>. At his <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/20/us/politics/donald-trump-sarah-palin.html">theatrical</a> and <a href="http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/politics/ct-trump-calls-for-starbucks-boycott-at-raucous-springfield-rally-20151109-story.html">raucous</a> campaign events, he makes GOP voters laugh, clap, boo and cheer as he condemns the nation’s leaders and promises to restore America to greatness.</p>
<p>Trump’s timing could not be better. Republicans voters are intensely pessimistic about the country’s future. Social conservatives in particular fear that the nation is in moral decline. For example, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-gaymarriage-idUSKCN0PI2NE20150708">63 percent of Republicans oppose</a> the Supreme Court’s ruling in favor of same-sex marriage. Conservative pessimism has many other sources as well, including the violent chaos in the Middle East, the chronic nature of illegal immigration, the economic instability caused by globalization and deep-seated conservative hostility to America’s changing demographics. </p>
<p>The result is a toxic brew of fear and paranoia. A <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/27/politics/iran-nuclear-deal-sanctions-cnn-orc-poll/">January 2016 CNN poll</a> found that 88 percent of Republicans believe that America is headed in the wrong direction. </p>
<p>With a crisis-like atmosphere prevailing within the GOP, conservative and evangelical voters are far less interested in ideological consistency in their candidates than they have been in past elections. Convinced that America faces impending disaster, Republicans yearn for a strong leader to reverse what they perceive as the nation’s rapid decline. </p>
<p>Trump’s “<a href="https://www.donaldjtrump.com/">Make America Great Again</a>” slogan is thus perfectly suited to the fearful and vengeful Republican mood of 2016. </p>
<h2>2. Political history works to Trump’s favor</h2>
<p>The importance of Trump’s double-digit victory in South Carolina extends far beyond the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/primary-calendar-and-results.html">50 delegates</a> at stake in the primary election. </p>
<p>Since 1980, the winner of the South Carolina GOP primary has <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/primaries/south-carolina-gop-analysis/?hpid=hp_no-name_graphic-story-b%3Ahomepage%2Fstory">won the GOP nomination</a> in six of the last seven contested races.</p>
<p>That’s why South Carolina is considered a bellwether state for the South. The demographics of the South Carolina Republican Party – evangelical, Protestant, working-class and conservative – closely parallel those of states throughout the region.</p>
<p>The crucial <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/primary-calendar-and-results.html">“Super Tuesday” primary on March 1</a> is filled with states that resemble South Carolina, including Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Texas.</p>
<p>Trump’s big win in South Carolina demonstrates unquestionably that his campaign resonates with southern Republicans. If he sweeps all or most of the southern states on March 1, his march to the Republican nomination will become unstoppable. </p>
<h2>3. Cruz’s scorched earth strategy backfired badly</h2>
<p>Since entering the presidential race, Ted Cruz has made clear that he will say or do anything to get conservative support. </p>
<p>To boost conservative turnout in Iowa, Cruz’s campaign sent out deceptively <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/ted-cruzs-iowa-mailers-are-more-fraudulent-than-everyone-thinks">official-looking mailers</a> that implied the recipients had broken the law by failing to vote in past elections. Then, minutes before the Iowa caucuses began, the Cruz campaign <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/carson-other-campaigns-sabotaged-us-dirty-tricks-n509396">falsely claimed that Ben Carson was dropping out</a> of the race. Cruz kept up his dirty tricks campaign in South Carolina, circulating a fake, <a href="http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/02/19/cruz-camp-responds-to-rubio-photoshop-flap-brushes-off-criticism.html">photo-shopped picture of Marco Rubio</a> shaking hands with President Obama.</p>
<p>In past elections, those unseemly tactics might have worked, but not this time around. In South Carolina both Trump and Rubio repeatedly called Cruz a <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/us-election/12156304/Republican-debate-Donald-Trump-South-Carolina-Live.html">cheater and a liar</a>. The attacks drew blood because of Cruz’s long-standing reputation for <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/a-lot-of-people-just-dont-like-ted-cruz-how-come-thats-okay-with-him/2015/11/08/b55a0782-7758-11e5-bc80-9091021aeb69_story.html">arrogance</a> and <a href="http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/12/">abrasiveness</a>. Even his former boss, President George W. Bush, declared of Cruz: <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/a-lot-of-people-just-dont-like-ted-cruz-how-come-thats-okay-with-him/2015/11/08/b55a0782-7758-11e5-bc80-9091021aeb69_story.html">“I just don’t like the guy.”</a></p>
<p>The attacks on Cruz’s character clearly worked, because by any traditional measure the Texas senator should have won South Carolina. The son of an <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2016/01/26/ted-cruz-father-controversial-evangelical-pastor-gives-him-edge-among-conservative-christians/wEE1dABvOiW5XQrRqBFuQN/story.html">evangelical minister</a>, Cruz asks voters to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/01/06/ted-cruz-asks-iowans-for-a-favor-prayer/">pray for him</a> and conducts his campaign rallies like religious revival meetings <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/02/01/cruz-closes-out-iowa-campaign-at-a-church-i-pray-we-will-win/">with supporters waving Bibles in the air</a>. Cruz’s heavy emphasis on religion made him a natural fit with South Carolina voters.</p>
<p>But the inconsistency between Cruz’s ostentatious displays of religiosity and his hardball political tactics finally caught up to him. As Trump put it at a South Carolina rally last week, Cruz <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2016/02/19/south-carolina-republican-primary-stays-nasty-volatile-right-end/k2A8PGo5vp276lxP5QHKWJ/story.html">“holds up the Bible and then he cheats.”</a></p>
<p>Evangelical voters constituted <a href="http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/sc/Rep">72 percent</a> of GOP voters on Saturday. If Cruz can muster only <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/south-carolina?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=span-abc-region&region=span-abc-region&WT.nav=span-abc-region">22 percent support</a> in South Carolina, he is unlikely to do better elsewhere. </p>
<h2>4. Bush flopped on a historic scale</h2>
<p>Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush finished in a <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/south-carolina?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=span-abc-region&region=span-abc-region&WT.nav=span-abc-region">distant fourth place</a> with eight percent of the vote. In his South Carolina concession speech, he sadly announced that he was <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/21/us/politics/jeb-bush.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=span-abc-region&region=span-abc-region&WT.nav=span-abc-region">ending his presidential campaign</a>. </p>
<p>Bush is one of the best-funded flops in presidential election history. In 2015 his campaign set an <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-bush-fundraising-idUSKCN0PJ29U20150709">all-time record</a> by raising over US$100 million in contributions in a six-month span. But all that money did not translate into votes. </p>
<p>Jeb never developed the compelling message and energetic charisma necessary to build a viable presidential campaign. He finished in <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/iowa">sixth place in Iowa</a> and <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/new-hampshire">fourth place in New Hampshire</a>.</p>
<p>Bush’s poor showing in South Carolina put the final nail in his political coffin. </p>
<h2>5. Delegate math is on Trump’s side</h2>
<p>With the Nevada GOP caucuses on Tuesday and the key southern primaries following one week later, Trump is well-positioned to take an insurmountable lead in the delegate race.</p>
<p>The reason is because of a quirk in the GOP delegate rules. As Nate Cohn of <em>The New York Times</em> recently pointed out, the GOP’s complex delegate award process makes it possible for <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/20/upshot/how-trump-could-pile-up-delegates-with-modest-percentages-of-the-vote.html?em_pos=small&emc=edit_up_20160219&nl=upshot&nl_art=0&nlid=69180613&ref=headline&te=1">Trump to win a majority of delegates</a> without winning a majority of the popular vote. As long as he keeps finishing in first in the primaries, he’ll pile up the delegates.</p>
<p>That is not good news for Trump’s GOP rivals. If they are going to stop him, they need to do it soon. Time is running out on everyone but Trump.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/55001/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anthony J. Gaughan is a registered independent. </span></em></p>Five takeaways from Trump’s South Carolina win.Anthony J. Gaughan, Associate Professor of Law, Drake UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.