tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/state-legislatures-93662/articlesState legislatures – The Conversation2024-02-29T17:13:16Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2227052024-02-29T17:13:16Z2024-02-29T17:13:16ZWhat does a state’s secretary of state do? Most run elections, a once-routine job facing increasing scrutiny<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576849/original/file-20240220-28-5ht4hm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=21%2C5%2C3573%2C2387&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger holds a news conference on Nov. 6, 2020, on the status of ballot counting in the close presidential race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/georgia-secretary-of-state-brad-raffensperger-holds-a-press-news-photo/1229492060?adppopup=true">Jessica McGowan/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>They may be the most important government officials you can’t name. Their decisions have the potential to alter election results. Scholars have referred to them as the “<a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=bpPeCwAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover#v=onepage&q&f=false">guardians of the democratic process</a>.” </p>
<p>Who are these unknown, but essential, officials? </p>
<p>State secretaries of state.</p>
<p>You probably know only one person with the title “secretary of state,” <a href="https://www.state.gov/secretary/">Antony Blinken, who conducts foreign policy</a> for the U.S. The others serve their individual states, overseeing numerous crucial state functions. In Michigan, the secretary of state <a href="https://www.michigan.gov/sos">provides motor-vehicle services</a>, such as driver’s licenses and auto registrations. In California, the secretary of state heads the <a href="https://www.sos.ca.gov/archives/">public archives</a> that document California history. And in many states, such as Pennsylvania, the secretary of state manages the process <a href="https://file.dos.pa.gov/">for business registration</a>. </p>
<p>Perhaps the most vital role that state secretaries of state play is that of chief election official. </p>
<p>In 38 states, the secretary of state supervises elections. This power is not confined simply to state and local elections, as the position title might suggest, but includes those on the federal level too.</p>
<p>Despite their importance, secretaries of state have historically managed to avoid being the center of attention during election seasons. Times are changing, though. </p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/state-courts-are-fielding-sky-high-numbers-of-lawsuits-ahead-of-the-midterms-including-challenges-to-voting-restrictions-and-to-how-elections-are-run-192682">Disputes over election results and ballot access</a> have become more prominent over the past half-decade. In turn, secretaries of state have <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/16/nass-secretaries-state-election-bipartisanship-00141840">faced newfound scrutiny and are likely to become more central figures</a> in coming elections.</p>
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<h2>Power from the Constitution</h2>
<p>The basis for secretary of states’ comprehensive authority is found in the text of the U.S. Constitution: Article I gives states <a href="https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/article-1/section-4/">the power</a> to regulate the “times, places, and manner” of holding congressional elections. Under Article II, the states <a href="https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/article-2/section-1/clause-2/">get to choose</a> how they pick their electors in presidential elections. </p>
<p>The administration of federal elections is thus largely a state affair. Secretaries of state derive their power over state and local elections <a href="https://constitution.congress.gov/constitution/amendment-10/">from the 10th Amendment</a>, which reserves to the states all powers not expressly delegated or prohibited by the Constitution.</p>
<p>This dynamic explains why the Maine secretary of state’s actions can range from keeping former President Donald Trump <a href="https://www.maine.gov/sos/news/2023/BellowsDecisionChallengeTrumpPrimaryPetitionsDec2023.html">off the presidential primary ballot</a> to overseeing <a href="https://www.newscentermaine.com/article/news/politics/elections/maine-local-municipal-elections-june-13-2023/97-a5b1f140-6740-4bef-be4e-3257069cbf87">the 2023 local elections</a>. </p>
<p>It explains why controversies over election certification by Georgia’s secretary of state occurred in both the <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/fact-check-trumps-georgia-call-raffensperger">2020 presidential election</a> and <a href="https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/georgia-certifies-election-results-after-nearly-two-weeks-drama/VOUIvFPmmzxad39XQFuoPP/">2018 gubernatorial election</a>. </p>
<p>As the chief election official, a secretary of state’s influence over the democratic process can extend to every single elected office. </p>
<h2>Substantial sway</h2>
<p>The election-related powers wielded by secretaries of state naturally vary by state. There are, nevertheless, common features. </p>
<p>The majority of secretaries of state determine ballot eligibility for political parties and candidates. Such determinations are typically straightforward: Is the candidate old enough? Are they a natural-born citizen? </p>
<p>Yet, as recent events <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/31/politics/colorado-secretary-of-state-tells-supreme-court-to-keep-trump-off-ballot/index.html">in Colorado</a> <a href="https://www.maine.gov/sos/news/2023/BellowsDecisionChallengeTrumpPrimaryPetitionsDec2023.html">and Maine</a> concerning Trump’s presidential eligibility under the 14th Amendment show, such decisions have the potential to be complex and <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-supreme-court-decision-on-trump-colorado-ballot-case-monumental-for-democracy-itself-not-just-2024-presidential-election-220643">extraordinarily significant</a>.</p>
<p>The majority of secretaries of state also have the job of certifying the winners of primary and general elections within their states. This is why secretaries were often named as defendants <a href="https://campaignlegal.org/results-lawsuits-regarding-2020-elections">in Trump’s 2020 legal cases</a> challenging the presidential election results.</p>
<p>Secretaries of state often have substantial sway over how you vote. This can include what your ballot looks like on Election Day. </p>
<p>For example, the Montana secretary of state, like many secretaries, has the power to “<a href="https://leg.mt.gov/bills/mca/title_0130/chapter_0120/part_0020/section_0020/0130-0120-0020-0020.html">adopt statewide uniform rules</a>” setting out, among other things, the ordering of candidates on the ballot, how to handle write-in candidates and the procedure for correcting ballots. </p>
<p>These decisions may seem trivial, but as the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/nov/19/bad-ballot-design-2020-democracy-america">infamous 2000 election fiasco in Florida showed</a>, ballot design can quite literally affect electoral outcomes. That ballot was ordered in a way that caused some Al Gore supporters to accidentally vote for third-party candidate Pat Buchanan. <a href="https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/faculty-research/publications/butterfly-did-it-aberrant-vote-buchanan-palm-beach-county-florida">Experts have argued</a> that this cost Gore the election. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576855/original/file-20240220-22-8a9gyt.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Many boxes of ballots spread across a large room." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576855/original/file-20240220-22-8a9gyt.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576855/original/file-20240220-22-8a9gyt.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576855/original/file-20240220-22-8a9gyt.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576855/original/file-20240220-22-8a9gyt.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576855/original/file-20240220-22-8a9gyt.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576855/original/file-20240220-22-8a9gyt.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576855/original/file-20240220-22-8a9gyt.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">In Industry, Calif., on Nov. 9, 2022, ballots were received, sorted and verified at the LA County ballot processing facility.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/industry-ca-wednesday-november-9-2022-ballots-are-received-news-photo/1244649591?adppopup=true">Robert Gauthier/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Potential for abuse</h2>
<p>Secretaries of state can also control how your vote is counted. In Nevada, the secretary of state <a href="https://law.justia.com/codes/nevada/2022/chapter-293/statute-293-3677/">can adopt regulations</a> imposing statewide standards for vote counting. </p>
<p>That system gave rise to conflict in the 2022 midterms between the Nevada secretary of state and county officials, when the secretary <a href="https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-nevada-reno-barbara-cegavske-4366bc3882e828dd6eab3d8a1c90d954">would not permit</a> county officials to conduct a hand count of mail-in ballots before election day. </p>
<p>Likewise, numerous secretaries of state have the ability to authorize the use – or nonuse – of voting equipment. Such powers were showcased in the wake of the 2020 election when many secretaries <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/pennsylvania-decertifies-countys-voting-machines-after-2020-audit-2021-07-21/">decertified voting machines</a> that were subject to “Stop the Steal” audits by Trump supporters.</p>
<p>This list of powers is far from comprehensive. Indeed, some secretaries of state are granted such broad election authority that they have <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/why-should-you-care-about-your-secretary-of-state">provoked concerns</a> over the potential for abuse. </p>
<p>The Arizona secretary of state, for example, can determine the “<a href="https://www.azleg.gov/ars/16/00411.htm">maximum allowable wait time</a>” at polls. Given <a href="https://www.democracydocket.com/analysis/how-long-lines-affect-turnout/">the negative relationship</a> between poll line length and voter turnout, such power, if misused, could effectively reduce voter participation.</p>
<p>The Arizona secretary of state can furthermore <a href="https://codes.findlaw.com/az/title-16-elections-and-electors/az-rev-st-sect-16-407/">refuse to approve the certification of</a> any election officer – people who help administer elections – seemingly for any reason that does not meet the secretary’s “satisfaction.” </p>
<p>While this authority normally would not raise red flags under a secretary of state acting in good faith, it could allow a secretary with an agenda – perhaps <a href="https://www.ocregister.com/2022/11/18/americans-rejected-stop-the-steal-state-secretaries-in-midterms/">election denialism</a> or favoring one candidate over another – to staff the state’s election administration regime with ideologues.</p>
<h2>How to hold accountable?</h2>
<p>I do not raise these examples to suggest that state secretaries of state are figures to be feared. The vast majority are, from my observations as <a href="https://www.law.virginia.edu/faculty/profile/tpv6dy/jmartin">a practitioner and scholar</a> of election law, excellent public servants. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, their immense influence over the democratic process demonstrates the need for accountability measures in situations where secretaries of state abuse their power – perhaps by <a href="https://www.aclu.org/news/voting-rights/state-officials-who-have-power-suppress-vote">deliberately suppressing the vote</a> or <a href="https://kansasreflector.com/2022/10/22/secretaries-of-state-play-changing-role-in-administering-elections-and-not-in-a-good-way/">acting in an overly partisan manner</a>. </p>
<p>The most obvious means of public accountability is elections. In most states in which the secretary of state is the chief election official, the secretary is in fact elected by the people. </p>
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<p>In seven such states, however, the secretary of state is a political appointee of either the governor or legislature. Appointment certainly does not immunize a secretary from accountability. The barrier for removal, however, may be higher when politics enters the calculation – e.g., requiring a supermajority legislative vote for impeachment.</p>
<p>The drawback to this kind of accountability: lack of immediacy. If a secretary of state is actively harming the democratic process, waiting until the next election year to vote them out may not seem like the best option. </p>
<p>One alternative involves a lawsuit. In 2018, for instance, Georgia advocacy groups <a href="https://kansasreflector.com/2022/10/22/secretaries-of-state-play-changing-role-in-administering-elections-and-not-in-a-good-way/">got a federal court</a> to block then-Secretary of State Brian Kemp from tossing out absentee ballots without notifying voters. </p>
<p>Lawsuits are an imperfect solution. For one, voters will not always have <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution-conan/article-3/section-2/clause-1/standing-requirement-overview">the legal right</a> to sue a secretary of state in every instance of wrongdoing. Furthermore, when a lawsuit is brought, the implication is often that harm has already been done.</p>
<p>Internal checks and balances can provide additional accountability. When a secretary of state makes an important election-related decision, that decision could be subject to the scrutiny of another official. This is how it is done in Louisiana, where the secretary of state’s decisions on issues <a href="https://law.justia.com/codes/louisiana/2011/rs/title18/rs18-1306">such as absentee and early voting</a> require the approval of the state’s attorney general.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222705/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John J. Martin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There are dozens of secretaries of state in the US. Only one deals with foreign affairs. The majority of the rest, state secretaries of state, have powerful positions running elections in each state.John J. Martin, Research Assistant Professor of Law, University of VirginiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2187642024-01-09T13:26:55Z2024-01-09T13:26:55ZVoters don’t always have final say – state legislatures and governors are increasingly undermining ballot measures that win<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566723/original/file-20231219-19-nsxbqv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=14%2C7%2C4778%2C3176&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Supporters of Issue 1, which would codify reproductive rights, including abortion, in the Ohio Constitution, cheer election results on Nov. 7, 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/supporters-of-ohio-issue-1-cheer-as-results-come-in-at-a-news-photo/1769693584?adppopup=true">Andrew Spear/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2023/11/14/confidence-in-scientists-medical-scientists-and-other-groups-and-institutions-in-society/">Less than half of Americans</a> trust elected officials to act in the public’s interest. </p>
<p>When voters want something done on an issue and their elected officials fail to act, they may turn to citizen initiatives to pursue their goals instead. The citizen initiative process varies by state, but in general, citizens collect signatures to have an issue put directly on the ballot for the voters to voice their preferences. Nearly half the states, 24 of them, <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/initiative-and-referendum-processes">allow citizen initiatives</a>. </p>
<p>These measures, also called “ballot initiatives,” often focus on the controversial issues of the day. Citizen initiatives <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Marriage_and_family_on_the_ballot">on same-sex marriage</a> and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0955395922000056">marijuana legalization</a> have been on many state ballots through the years. Abortion rights have repeatedly <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/abortion-rights-won-every-election-roe-v-wade-overturned-rcna99031">been on the ballot since 2022</a>, after the Supreme Court <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2021/19-1392">overturned the constitutional protection for abortion</a>, and more voters can expect to <a href="https://apnews.com/article/abortion-ballot-measure-2024-state-vote-e7d635835dc3a440789ad87787553ec1">vote on the issue in 2024</a>.</p>
<p>I am an <a href="https://annewhitesell.com/research-2/">American politics scholar</a> who studies the connection between representation and public policy. In American democracy, the people expect to have a voice, whether that comes through electing representatives or directly voting on issues.</p>
<p>Yet it is <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-12/where-the-people-s-vote-can-be-negated-by-legislators">becoming increasingly common</a> for lawmakers across the country to not only ignore the will of the people, but also actively work against it. From 2010 to 2015, about 21% of citizen initiatives were <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Legislative_alterations_of_ballot_initiatives">altered by lawmakers</a> after they passed. From 2016 to 2018, lawmakers altered nearly 36% of passed citizen initiatives. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A big sign projected on a wall that says 'Eggs & Issues' with a man to the right at a lectern, talking." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566717/original/file-20231219-27-klyniy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C4%2C2977%2C1904&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566717/original/file-20231219-27-klyniy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566717/original/file-20231219-27-klyniy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566717/original/file-20231219-27-klyniy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566717/original/file-20231219-27-klyniy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566717/original/file-20231219-27-klyniy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566717/original/file-20231219-27-klyniy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Maine Gov. Paul LePage refused to expand Medicaid in his state after voters in 2018 passed an initiative authorizing it.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/gov-paul-lepage-speaks-at-eggs-issues-breakfast-at-the-news-photo/987167644?adppopup=true">Gregory Rec/Portland Portland Press Herald via Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Invalidate, weaken, repeal</h2>
<p>Here’s what some of those cases look like, from successful to unsuccessful efforts to alter the will of the people: </p>
<p>• In November 2023, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/ohio-abortion-amendment-election-2023-fe3e06747b616507d8ca21ea26485270">Ohio voters passed an amendment to their state’s constitution</a> protecting the right to abortion. Within a week, a group of Ohio Republican lawmakers <a href="https://ohiocapitaljournal.com/2023/11/13/some-ohio-gop-lawmakers-attempting-to-undermine-democratic-process-after-voters-protect-abortion/">declared the amendment to be invalid</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/nov/17/ohio-abortion-rights-republicans-overturn">introduced legislation</a> that would strip state courts from having authority to rule on the issue of abortion. Ohio House Speaker, Republican Jason Stephens, <a href="https://ohiocapitaljournal.com/2023/11/15/pumping-the-brakes-ohio-house-speaker-dismisses-effort-to-limit-court-jurisdiction-on-issue-1/">rejected the proposed legislation</a>.</p>
<p>• In July 2018, Washington, D.C., voters approved an <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2022/11/08/dc-initiative-82-results-wage/">increase in the minimum wage</a> for tipped workers. Three months later, the City Council <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Washington,_D.C.,_Initiative_77,_Minimum_Wage_Increase_for_Tipped_Workers_(June_2018)">repealed the initiative</a>.</p>
<p>• In 2016, voters in South Dakota <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/south-dakota-ballot-measure-22-campaign-finance-overhaul">supported an initiative</a> to revise campaign finance and lobbying laws and create an ethics commission. Governor Dennis Daugaard <a href="https://www.argusleader.com/story/news/politics/2017/02/02/daugaard-signs-bill-eliminating-voter-approved-ethics-law/97399274/">signed a law</a> repealing the initiative in February 2017. Another citizen initiative to create an ethics commission was <a href="https://www.governing.com/archive/gov-campaign-finance-ethics-ballot-measures-2018.html">on the ballot in 2018</a>, but did not pass.</p>
<h2>Revise and amend</h2>
<p>Often lawmakers rewrite laws passed through initiative. Some revisions change key components of the initiatives, while others amend technical details.</p>
<p>• <a href="https://boltsmag.org/ohio-voters-issue-2-legalized-marijuana-equity-provisions-expungement/">Ohioans voted in favor of legalizing marijuana</a> in November 2023. In that initiative, part of the tax revenue from marijuana sales would go to a financial assistance program for those who show “social and economic disadvantage.” The Ohio Senate <a href="https://www.cleveland19.com/2023/12/09/breaking-down-bud-ohio-senate-passes-bill-that-nixes-social-equity-fund-put-place-under-issue-2/">passed a bill</a> the following month that would instead use the tax revenue to fund jails and law enforcement.</p>
<p>• Massachusetts voters <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Massachusetts_Marijuana_Legalization,_Question_4_(2016)#:%7E:text=The%20law%20implemented%20the%20following,retailer%20operating%20within%20the%20locality.">passed recreational marijuana legalization</a> in 2016. In 2017, the Legislature passed a bill to <a href="https://apnews.com/3cbe8b27c83144f391713d6d1fb31978">increase the excise tax</a> on marijuana from the 3.75% set in the citizens’ initiative to 10.75%. </p>
<p>• In 2018, Utah voters made adults with income up to 138% of the federal poverty level eligible for Medicaid – a federal-state health insurance program for low-income individuals and those with disabilities. The state Legislature applied to the federal government for waivers to <a href="https://www.commonwealthfund.org/blog/2019/one-step-forward-two-steps-back-utahs-medicaid-expansion">lower the income limit to 100% of the federal poverty level</a>, which curtailed the expansion voters approved.</p>
<p>• Arizona voters <a href="https://apnews.com/article/business-education-arizona-971374029a2af7d8f67b8366bdd89c3b">approved a tax increase</a> on the wealthy to fund the state’s schools in 2020. In 2021, the Legislature responded by <a href="https://apps.azleg.gov/BillStatus/BillOverview/75928">exempting business earnings from the tax</a>. There was an attempt by citizen initiative later that year to <a href="https://apnews.com/article/business-arizona-phoenix-doug-ducey-arizona-supreme-court-b8adfe654d0a5aa12b5054170e0f7df4">repeal the legislature’s law exempting business earnings</a>, but it did not gather enough signatures from citizens to make it to the ballot.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566732/original/file-20231219-17-jxqxos.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A green-bordered sign on a window that says 'VOTE NO on Initiative #77.'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566732/original/file-20231219-17-jxqxos.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566732/original/file-20231219-17-jxqxos.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566732/original/file-20231219-17-jxqxos.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566732/original/file-20231219-17-jxqxos.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566732/original/file-20231219-17-jxqxos.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566732/original/file-20231219-17-jxqxos.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566732/original/file-20231219-17-jxqxos.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Initiative #77 was a 2018 ballot measure to gradually raise the minimum wage that tipped workers receive; passed by Washington, D.C. voters, the City Council repealed it.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/man-walks-by-a-vote-no-on-initiative-poster-on-june-18-2018-news-photo/977876412?adppopup=true">Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Governors object</h2>
<p>In some cases, it is not the legislature that opposes the will of the voters, but the governor. In recent years, several Republican governors have refused to implement Medicaid expansions passed by voter initiatives.</p>
<p>• Maine’s former governor, Paul LePage, said he would go to jail before he would <a href="https://www.pressherald.com/2018/07/12/paul-lepage-says-hed-go-to-jail-before-he-expands-medicaid/">implement Medicaid expansion</a> after it passed by voter initiative in 2017. Medicaid was not expanded until <a href="https://www.pressherald.com/2019/01/03/mills-signs-executive-order-to-implement-medicaid-expansion/">Democrat Janet Mills took office</a> in 2019.</p>
<p>• <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/missouri-governor-won-t-fund-medicaid-expansion-flouting-state-constitution-n1267265">Missouri Governor Mike Parson</a> said he would not move forward with the 2020 voter-passed Medicaid expansion because it would not pay for itself. In 2021, the <a href="https://apnews.com/article/courts-michael-brown-medicaid-3690befde29aa1b27406a3472fb566aa">Missouri Supreme Court</a> ruled the initiative valid and Medicaid expansion moved forward.</p>
<h2>Why they do it</h2>
<p>Lawmakers who rewrite or overturn ballot initiatives sometimes argue that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-014-9273-5">voters do not understand</a> what they are supporting. Lawmakers, unlike citizens, have to balance state budgets every year, and they often raise questions about how to pay for the policies or programs passed by initiative. </p>
<p>Lawmakers also argue that outside groups play an outsized role in passing ballot initiatives. While <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-014-9282-4">political science research</a> provides some support for this claim, outside groups also have influence in the regular legislative process. And they often work to defeat initiatives as well.</p>
<p>Citizen initiatives became popular <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/History_of_initiative_and_referendum_in_the_U.S.">during the Progressive Era</a> of the early 20th century as a way to give power back to citizens. Then, as now, citizens felt political power was too concentrated in the hands of the wealthy. Initiatives were one way for everyday people to get more involved in their government. </p>
<p>That only half of states permit citizen initiatives suggests that political elites are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/153244000100100402">not always supportive</a> of a process that limits their own power. Historically, though, legislators have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.polity.2300087">respected the results</a>. Some lawmakers, including Ohio Governor Mike DeWine, state they will continue to <a href="https://ohiocapitaljournal.com/2023/11/11/ohio-gov-dewine-accepts-will-of-the-people-on-abortion-marijuana-but-hold-on/">“accept” the will of the people</a>. To do otherwise undermines democracy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218764/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anne Whitesell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Election year 2024 will see citizen initiatives on the ballot across the country, some focused on abortion rights. But there’s a growing trend of lawmakers altering initiatives after they have passed.Anne Whitesell, Assistant Professor, Political Science, Miami UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2145482023-09-29T17:05:58Z2023-09-29T17:05:58ZFeinstein’s death raises the question: How are vacant Senate seats filled?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550773/original/file-20230927-23-37f41o.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=5%2C0%2C3771%2C2719&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Sen. Bob Menendez and his wife arrive at the U.S. District Court in New York City on Sept. 27, 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/senator-bob-menendez-democrat-of-new-jersey-and-his-wife-news-photo/1692730524?adppopup=true">Timothy A. Clary/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>There’s an empty seat in the U.S. Senate now that California’s longtime and senior senator, <a href="https://theconversation.com/sen-dianne-feinstein-a-trailblazer-from-san-franciscos-city-hall-to-capitol-hill-199948">Dianne Feinstein, has died</a>. California Gov. Gavin Newsom announced on social media that <a href="https://twitter.com/GavinNewsom/status/1708699205206933871">he has chosen former state labor leader and current Emily’s List president Laphonza Butler</a>, whom he said would be “the first Black lesbian to openly serve in the U.S. Senate,” to the seat.</em></p>
<p><em>And, following the Sept. 22, 2023, federal <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/sen-bob-menendez-indicted-federal-charges-rcna111447">indictment on bribery and other charges</a> of U.S. Sen. Bob Menendez, a Democrat from New Jersey, numerous people, including some prominent Democratic lawmakers, have called for Menendez to resign. Even Democratic New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/22/politics/new-jersey-democrats-menendez/index.html">who would appoint a replacement for Menendez</a>, has said the senator should step down.</em></p>
<p><em>So far, Menendez, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/sen-bob-menendez-arraigned-resignation-calls-grow-louder-rcna117438">who has pleaded not guilty</a> to the charges, has <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/25/nyregion/menendez-bribery-charges.html">refused to resign</a> from the Senate.</em></p>
<p><em>The possibility of other U.S. Senate vacancies looms, as well. Following two on-camera episodes during summer 2023 when Sen. Mitch McConnell, a Republican, appeared temporarily unable to speak or move, <a href="https://newrepublic.com/post/175328/republicans-resign-mitch-mcconnell-second-freezing-incident">some Republicans called for McConnell to resign</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>McConnell has not indicated he plans to step aside.</em></p>
<p><em>The Conversation asked <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=6P3QreQAAAAJ&hl=en">Gibbs Knotts</a>, a professor of political science at the College of Charleston, to explain states’ processes for replacing U.S. senators who choose or are forced to vacate their seats, or who die while in office.</em></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551027/original/file-20230928-23-8m0ezq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A gray-haired man in a blue blazer walks in a building followed by several other people." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551027/original/file-20230928-23-8m0ezq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551027/original/file-20230928-23-8m0ezq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551027/original/file-20230928-23-8m0ezq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551027/original/file-20230928-23-8m0ezq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551027/original/file-20230928-23-8m0ezq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551027/original/file-20230928-23-8m0ezq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551027/original/file-20230928-23-8m0ezq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell during the opening of the Senate at the U.S. Capitol on September 05, 2023 in Washington, D.C.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/senate-minority-leader-mitch-mcconnell-walks-to-the-senate-news-photo/1661896770?adppopup=true">Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Who has the power in most states to temporarily or permanently replace US senators?</h2>
<p>The basic rules about replacing U.S. senators are spelled out in the <a href="https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/17th-amendment">17th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution</a>: “When vacancies happen in the representation of any State in the Senate, the executive authority of such State shall issue writs of election to fill such vacancies: Provided, That the legislature of any State may empower the executive thereof to make temporary appointments until the people fill the vacancies by election as the legislature may direct.”</p>
<p>In simple terms, in 46 of the 50 states, <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/vacancies-in-the-united-states-senate">governors have the power to make temporary appointments to fill U.S. Senate vacancies</a> until either a scheduled or special election determines who will fill the remainder of a vacating senator’s term. <a href="https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-09-29/who-newsom-appoint-to-fill-dianne-feinsteins-senate-term-what-we-know">That’s the case in California</a>, where Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, will name Feinstein’s replacement. That person <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/vacancies-in-the-united-states-senate">will serve until the next election</a> for that seat, in November 2024.</p>
<p>Permanent replacements require an election. But there are rules about when and how these elections occur and those rules vary by state.</p>
<p>In 37 states, <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R44781">gubernatorial appointees serve</a> the remainder of the term or until the next scheduled general election. In the remaining states with gubernatorial appointments, special elections are required, often with an accelerated timetable. For example, <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R44781">Alabama law requires</a> a special election within 60 days of the gubernatorial appointment, while <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/vacancies-in-the-united-states-senate">Massachusetts law calls for</a> an election 145 to 160 days after the appointment. </p>
<p>North Dakota, Oregon, Rhode Island and Wisconsin do not allow governors to make temporary appointments. Those states only fill U.S. Senate vacancies by special election, but laws specify time periods in most states. For example, <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/vacancies-in-the-united-states-senate">special elections in Wisconsin must take place between 62 and 77 days of the vacancy</a> unless the opening occurs after July 1 during an even-numbered year. In this case the contest takes place during the November general election. However, <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/vacancies-in-the-united-states-senate">there is not a time period specified</a> by state law in Oregon.</p>
<h2>How long do those appointments last?</h2>
<p>If a person appointed to the seat by the governor then wins a special election or a contest scheduled alongside statewide elections, they will serve the remainder of the vacating senator’s term. Otherwise, if someone else wins the special election, they get to serve out the vacating senator’s term.</p>
<h2>What rules are there on how governors make the appointments?</h2>
<p>Governors have some restrictions on how they make U.S. Senate appointments. In 10 of the gubernatorial appointment states, <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/vacancies-in-the-united-states-senate">U.S. senators must be from the same party as the prior incumbent</a>. Arizona, Hawaii, Kentucky, Maryland, Montana, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming have this restriction. </p>
<p>In Utah, <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/vacancies-in-the-united-states-senate">the governor is required to select from a list of three candidates</a> submitted by the party of the U.S. senator being replaced.</p>
<p>In the rest of the states, the governor has the power to appoint a successor, regardless of party, <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/vacancies-in-the-united-states-senate">including in California</a>.</p>
<h2>Do state legislators have a say in the process?</h2>
<p>While governors have most of the power, state legislators also have a say in the process. Most notably, legislators establish the appointment procedures and set the general rules about when an election must occur. If they don’t like the process, they have the power to change it.</p>
<p>A recent example occurred in Oklahoma in 2021, which was then one of a very few states where a vacated Senate seat went unfilled until the next election. </p>
<p>Dissatisfied with that process, the Republican-controlled legislature <a href="http://www.oklegislature.gov/BillInfo.aspx?Bill=sb959&Session=2100">passed a law</a> to allow gubernatorial appointments for vacated U.S. Senate seats. <a href="https://www.koco.com/article/oklahoma-house-passes-bill-allowing-governor-to-appoint-us-senator-amid-vacancy/35604497">Republican legislators were motivated to change their state’s law</a>, in part, because of the 50-50 split in the U.S. Senate and a fear that a vacated seat would give an advantage to Democrats.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214548/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gibbs Knotts does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>California’s governor has already announced his pick for the the seat, Laphonza Butler. Here’s more on the state-by-state process for replacing a senator who has died, is facing criminal charges or has serious illness.Gibbs Knotts, Professor of Political Science, College of CharlestonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2083542023-06-30T19:18:54Z2023-06-30T19:18:54Z‘We the People’ includes all Americans – but July 4 is a reminder that democracy remains a work in progress<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535045/original/file-20230630-19-9rx4tu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">When the Constitution was written, the term 'We the People' had a very limited application for voting rights.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/108914576/photo/a-protestor-holding-a-placard-in-front-of-the-us-capitol-building.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=On4svGb-O5Cv9XvMXuS4wV-FzqfSsO0ZdpW4o5yzjNM=">Antenna/Getty Images </a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The United States’ founders firmly rejected King George III and the entire idea of monarchy 247 years ago, on July 4, 1776. </p>
<p>Political power does not come from some absolute authority of a king over people, the founders argued. Rather, political power comes from the <a href="https://billofrightsinstitute.org/primary-sources/federalist-no-39">people themselves</a>. And these people must <a href="https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/declaration-transcript">agree to any authority</a> <a href="https://academy4sc.org/video/representative-vs-direct-democracy-power-of-the-people/">governing their society</a>. </p>
<p>This is why the <a href="https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/constitution-transcript">U.S. Constitution</a> starts with the words “We the People,” and not “I, the ruler.”</p>
<p><a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Joseph-Jones-8">I am</a> a historian, ethicist and media scholar <a href="https://www.psu.edu/news/bellisario-college-communications/story/dissertation-focused-food-journalism-earns-annual-davis/">and have studied</a> how people build communities.</p>
<p>America’s founders did not trust everyone’s ability to equally participate in the <a href="https://www.ushistory.org/gov/1c.asp">new democracy</a>, as laws at the time showed. </p>
<p>But, because of policy changes on issues like voting, the idea of who actually is represented in the phrase “We the People” has <a href="https://www.facinghistory.org/resource-library/we-people-united-states">changed over time</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535047/original/file-20230630-41655-azdorj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A painting depicts men dressed in old fashioned clothing in a large room crowded around some men on a raised platform." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535047/original/file-20230630-41655-azdorj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535047/original/file-20230630-41655-azdorj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535047/original/file-20230630-41655-azdorj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535047/original/file-20230630-41655-azdorj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535047/original/file-20230630-41655-azdorj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535047/original/file-20230630-41655-azdorj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535047/original/file-20230630-41655-azdorj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">George Washington, Benjamin Franklin, Thomas Jefferson and other founders prepare to sign the Constitution in 1787.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/525372757/photo/signing-the-us-constitution.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=fUS2e0GJevIjoW2km_VDY6Y7syikiU8nt-86W9eXopM=">GraphicaArtis/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>First steps</h2>
<p>In 1776, only <a href="https://www.loc.gov/classroom-materials/elections/right-to-vote/the-founders-and-the-vote/">white men who owned property</a> had the right to vote.</p>
<p>“Few men, who have no property, have any judgment of their own,” as former President John Adams <a href="https://shec.ashp.cuny.edu/items/show/1645">wrote in 1776</a>.</p>
<p>As activists – including <a href="https://www.history.com/topics/womens-history/women-who-fought-for-the-vote-1">some women</a> and <a href="https://www.archives.gov/research/african-americans/vote/people">Black Americans</a> – proclaimed their equality, <a href="https://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED606970.pdf">public education spread</a>, and <a href="https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/voting-rights-throughout-history/">social thinking shifted</a>. </p>
<p>By about 1860, all state legislatures had lifted <a href="https://www.loc.gov/classroom-materials/elections/right-to-vote/the-founders-and-the-vote/">property requirement for voting</a>. Allowing only wealthy property owners to vote did not align with the democratic notion that “<a href="https://www.loc.gov/classroom-materials/elections/right-to-vote/the-founders-and-the-vote/">all men are created equal</a>.” </p>
<p>While some states, <a href="https://www.crf-usa.org/bill-of-rights-in-action/bria-8-1-b-who-voted-in-early-america">like Vermont</a>, eliminated the property voting requirement in the 18th century, this shift became more popular in the 1820s and the 1830s. </p>
<p>Congress passed the 15th Amendment in 1870, <a href="https://guides.loc.gov/15th-amendment">giving Black men</a> and others the right to vote, regardless of race.</p>
<p>But <a href="https://www.loc.gov/classroom-materials/elections/right-to-vote/voting-rights-for-native-americans/">that amendment still excluded</a> some people, chiefly Native Americans and women. </p>
<h2>An unfinished history</h2>
<p>Despite the 15th Amendment, violence and intimidation in some states still <a href="https://www.loc.gov/classroom-materials/elections/right-to-vote/voting-rights-for-african-americans/#:%7E:text=Until%20the%20Supreme%20Court%20struck,people%20whose%20ancestors%20were%20slaves.">prevented Black men from voting</a>.</p>
<p>State lawmakers also used bureaucratic measures, such as a poll tax, renewed attempts at a property requirement and literacy tests, to prevent African Americans from voting. </p>
<p>The fight over <a href="https://www.archives.gov/research/african-americans/vote">African American suffrage</a> continued for decades, and many courageous Americans protested and were arrested or killed in the struggle to exercise their voting rights. </p>
<p>Thanks to the work of <a href="https://www.loc.gov/collections/civil-rights-history-project/articles-and-essays/voting-rights/">civil rights activists</a> – including <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/John-Lewis-American-civil-rights-leader-and-politician">John Lewis</a>, <a href="https://time.com/5692775/fannie-lou-hamer/">Fannie Lou Hamer</a> and <a href="https://kinginstitute.stanford.edu/mlk-topic/voter-registration">Marting Luther King Jr.</a> – public opinion shifted. </p>
<p>In the 1960s, Congress passed additional legal measures to protect the voting rights of Black Americans. This included the <a href="https://constitution.congress.gov/constitution/amendment-24/">24th Amendment</a>, which outlawed the use of poll taxes, and the <a href="https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/voting-rights-act">1965 Voting Rights Act</a>, which prohibited any racial discrimination in voting. </p>
<h2>Women’s turn</h2>
<p>In 1920, <a href="https://www.loc.gov/classroom-materials/elections/right-to-vote/voting-rights-for-women/">women gained</a> the right to vote with the addition of the 19th Amendment, following another decadeslong struggle.</p>
<p>Women’s rights activists made the first organized call for female suffrage at the <a href="https://www.loc.gov/item/today-in-history/july-19/">Seneca Falls Convention in 1848</a>. </p>
<p>In the following years, suffragists pushed for <a href="https://www.history.com/topics/womens-history/the-fight-for-womens-suffrage">constitutional amendments, state laws and a change in public thinking</a> to <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/23001287">include women</a> in “We the People.” </p>
<h2>Native American rights</h2>
<p>Having self-governed for centuries, Native Americans were not legally recognized with voting rights until Congress approved the <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/on-this-day-in-1924-all-indians-made-united-states-citizens">Indian Citizenship Act</a> in 1924.</p>
<p>While that supposedly gave Native Americans the same rights as other Americans, <a href="https://www.loc.gov/classroom-materials/elections/right-to-vote/voting-rights-for-native-americans/">Native Americans faced the same tactics</a>, like violence, that white racists used to prevent Black Americans from voting. </p>
<p>Like other people excluded from “We the People,” <a href="https://medium.com/indigenously/meet-the-indigenous-women-who-fought-for-the-vote-ecdc335fb29f">Native Americans</a> have continued to push for voting rights and other ways to ensure <a href="https://nativenewsonline.net/currents/history-of-native-american-voting-rights">they are included in American self-government</a>. </p>
<h2>Making democracy more democratic</h2>
<p>In 1971 “We the People” again expanded, to include younger people, with the <a href="https://history.house.gov/HistoricalHighlight/Detail/37022">lowering of the voting age from 21 to 18</a>. The ongoing <a href="https://www.gilderlehrman.org/history-resources/essays/winning-vote-history-voting-rights">Vietnam War shifted public opinion</a>, and there was popular support for the idea that someone old enough to die fighting for their country should also be able to vote. </p>
<p>A government once described by Abraham Lincoln as “<a href="https://www.abrahamlincolnonline.org/lincoln/speeches/gettysburg.htm">of the people, by the people, and for the people</a>” was now going to technically include all of the people.</p>
<p>But equality for women, young people and racially marginalized groups did not change overnight. </p>
<p>Social equality remains far off for many people, including undocumented immigrants, for example, and LGBTQ+ individuals.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535049/original/file-20230630-17-732pno.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A person walks past a white sign that says 'Vote here.'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535049/original/file-20230630-17-732pno.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535049/original/file-20230630-17-732pno.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535049/original/file-20230630-17-732pno.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535049/original/file-20230630-17-732pno.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535049/original/file-20230630-17-732pno.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535049/original/file-20230630-17-732pno.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535049/original/file-20230630-17-732pno.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">While some states have it made it harder to vote in recent years, others have made it easier.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1204917011/photo/voters-in-14-states-head-to-the-polls-on-super-tuesday.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=x4w0NYntBddlGQ41pzexXLAg9bTXcyG8Es8oaEbou60=">Stephen Maturen/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Current limitations to ‘We the People’</h2>
<p>The government has recognized that citizens over the age of 18 have a right to participate in self-government. But there are still political and legal attempts to <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/voting-laws-roundup-june-2023">restrict people’s</a> ability to vote. </p>
<p>While some states have passed new laws that make it harder to vote in recent years, other states have made it easier. </p>
<p>North Carolina passed new <a href="https://www.wbtv.com/2023/04/28/nc-supreme-court-reverses-previous-opinion-deems-voter-id-law-constitutional/">ID requirements</a> in April 2023 that make it difficult for those without current state identification to vote.</p>
<p><a href="https://spectrumlocalnews.com/tx/south-texas-el-paso/politics/2023/04/03/bill-aims-to-purge-texas-voters-if-they-skip-elections">Texas</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/ga-state-wire-georgia-election-2020-voter-registration-business-a916e90db938aa60a4eff3d00d391006">Georgia</a>, <a href="https://oklahomawatch.org/2019/04/22/nearly-90000-inactive-oklahomans-removed-from-voter-rolls/">Oklahoma</a> and Idaho are also <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/12/20/790319853/are-states-purging-or-cleaning-voter-registration-rolls">among the states</a> that <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/12/20/790319853/are-states-purging-or-cleaning-voter-registration-rolls">are deleting some voters</a> from their rolls – if people do not regularly vote, for example.</p>
<p>Arizona has <a href="https://eu.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/arizona/2019/09/12/arizona-has-closed-hundreds-polling-places-2013-voting-rights-act-">closed multiple polling sites</a>, making it more difficult for some people to vote. </p>
<p>Twenty-five states, meanwhile, including Hawaii and Delaware, have passed laws over the last few years that <a href="https://theconversation.com/some-states-are-making-it-harder-to-vote-some-are-making-it-easier-but-its-too-soon-to-say-if-this-will-affect-voter-turnout-in-2022-176102">make it easier to vote</a>. One of these measures automatically registers people to vote when they turn 18. </p>
<p>There are <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jun/25/voting-rights-act-voter-map-registration-id-racism-supreme-court-georgia">more examples</a>. The bottom line is, voters have fewer protections when it becomes harder to vote, and American democracy is not as democratic as it could be. </p>
<h2>The big picture</h2>
<p>Voting is not the only form of <a href="https://direct.mit.edu/daed/article/152/1/52/115008/Power-to-Pursue-Happiness">recognition and participation</a> in a democracy. People can be respected at work, paid what they are worth and treated with dignity. Community members can be treated fairly by police, school officials and other authorities, given an equal opportunity for justice and education to improve their lives. </p>
<p>People <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/civic-virtue-and-why-it-matters#:%7E:text=Civic%20virtue%20describes%20the%20character,of%20its%20values%20and%20principles">can also contribute</a> to the social and economic well-being of a democracy in ways other than voting, <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-bucket-list-for-involved-citizens-76-things-you-can-do-to-boost-civic-engagement/">doing everything</a> from planting a tree in a public park to attending a political rally. </p>
<p>But the overall expansion of voting rights and a historical understanding of “We the People” shows that everyone belongs in a democratic society, regardless of wealth, achievement or other differences.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208354/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joseph Jones does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The meaning of the Constitution’s preamble, which begins with the words ‘We the People,’ has evolved over time as voting rights have expanded.Joseph Jones, Assistant Professor of Media Ethics and Law at Reed College of Media, West Virginia UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2086172023-06-27T23:54:43Z2023-06-27T23:54:43ZSupreme Court says state lawmakers can’t just ignore state law when drawing voting districts or choosing presidential electors<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534445/original/file-20230627-34413-o3m7yd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=32%2C25%2C4252%2C3006&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">North Carolina's election districts have been under debate and review for years.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/SupremeCourtRedistrictingNorthCarolina/222fd61aef6f49068f853e6b69b0a235/photo">AP Photo/Gerry Broome</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>For months, legislators, legal scholars and people simply interested in democracy and elections were fixated on a case before the Supreme Court, <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2022/21-1271">Moore v. Harper</a>. Those following the case, which asked the justices to rule on the “independent state legislature doctrine,” have held their collective breath awaiting the outcome, which could have changed fundamental aspects of U.S. elections and politics.</em> </p>
<p><em><a href="https://law.richmond.edu/faculty/hchamber/">Henry L. Chambers Jr.</a>, a law professor at the University of Richmond, wrote earlier for The Conversation <a href="https://theconversation.com/independent-state-legislature-doctrine-now-before-supreme-court-could-reverse-200-years-of-progress-in-giving-more-say-over-elections-to-the-people-186282">about the case</a>, saying “Adoption of a strong independent state legislature doctrine would leave partisan gerrymandering unregulated at both the state and federal levels. State legislatures, unconstrained by state law, could then create aggressively gerrymandered congressional districts, possibly leading to an ever more partisan Congress with accompanying gridlock and policy failures.”</em></p>
<p><em>We asked Chambers to help readers understand <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/22pdf/21-1271_3f14.pdf">the court’s opinion</a>, issued on June 27, 2023.</em> </p>
<h2>What question did the Supreme Court answer in this opinion?</h2>
<p>The court considered whether a state legislature could have the last word, with no review by state courts, regarding gerrymandered congressional districts they created. State legislatures have always been bound by the U.S. Constitution and by federal laws, so they had to draw lines consistent with the federal <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Voting-Rights-Act">Voting Rights Act</a>, for example. But the question was whether a state legislature could draw whatever congressional districts it wanted without review by state courts under state law. If so, state legislatures might also have more freedom to affect the choice of state electors in presidential elections. </p>
<p>At issue was a legal theory called the “independent state legislature doctrine,” which the court considered in a dispute over gerrymandered North Carolina congressional districts. In early 2022, North Carolina state courts found the Legislature violated the state constitution when it drew congressional districts favoring Republicans. The <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/moore-v-harper-2/">Legislature claimed</a> the U.S. Constitution gives it authority, unfettered by state courts’ interpretation of the state constitution or laws, to regulate congressional elections, and asked the Supreme Court to agree.</p>
<p>The court did not agree.</p>
<p>In cases that involve the legislative action, courts typically consider whether the legislature has contravened state law. If the legislature has, it has made a mistake, and the legislative action tends to be reversed. </p>
<p>This decision merely reiterates what most people always thought the law was: Legislatures cannot legislate in ways that are inconsistent with the law that governs their actions and their state. This conclusion seems obvious, like saying the sky is blue or water is wet.</p>
<h2>Does this decision apply only to partisan gerrymandering by state legislatures?</h2>
<p>This case focused on partisan <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/moore-v-harper-who-has-the-power-to-set-state-election-rules/">gerrymandering</a> of congressional districts. However, it may apply more generally to rules for congressional elections, such as where, when and how such elections will be run. If the state constitution explains how congressional elections will be run, the state legislature must abide by those provisions. </p>
<h2>What happens next in terms of partisan gerrymanders drawn by state legislatures?</h2>
<p>Partisan gerrymanders are subject only to state constitutional and <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/statute">statutory law</a> – the written laws enacted by the legislature. In the 2019 ruling, <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2018/18-422">Rucho v. Common Cause</a>, the Supreme Court deemed partisan gerrymandering a political question, not subject to regulation by the federal Constitution. In that ruling, the court noted state constitutional and statutory law could be used to stop partisan gerrymandering. </p>
<p>However, states need not regulate partisan gerrymandering. A state constitution may allow partisan gerrymandering by failing to prohibit it, essentially saying, “The people don’t care about partisan gerrymandering.” </p>
<p>Racial gerrymandering is still subject to regulation by the U.S. Constitution, federal law, such as the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Voting-Rights-Act">Voting Rights Act</a>, and state law.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534447/original/file-20230627-34413-lkeda3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A person stands in front of a large map showing electorai districts in North Carolina." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534447/original/file-20230627-34413-lkeda3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534447/original/file-20230627-34413-lkeda3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534447/original/file-20230627-34413-lkeda3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534447/original/file-20230627-34413-lkeda3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534447/original/file-20230627-34413-lkeda3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534447/original/file-20230627-34413-lkeda3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534447/original/file-20230627-34413-lkeda3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Some North Carolina legislators claimed they could make election district boundaries wherever they wanted, regardless of existing state laws, but the U.S. Supreme Court disagreed.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/SupremeCourtRedistrictingNorthCarolina/222fd61aef6f49068f853e6b69b0a235/photo">AP Photo/Gerry Broome</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Now that the court has clarified that a legislature’s congressional redistricting is subject to review by state courts, the issue will become whether a state court has appropriately interpreted state statutory law or state constitutional law if it strikes down a congressional redistricting plan. </p>
<p>If a court interprets state law reasonably in invalidating a redistricting plan, it acts appropriately. If a court interprets state law too aggressively in invalidating a redistricting plan, it invades the legislature’s prerogatives. </p>
<p>Federal courts will decide when the state courts have gone too far. The less obvious the interpretation used by the court to limit the state legislature, the less likely federal courts will allow that interpretation to constrain the legislature. However, the Supreme Court provided no guidance in this decision on when state courts have gone too far.</p>
<h2>Will this ruling affect the 2024 presidential election?</h2>
<p>Had the court decided the case differently, bedlam could have ensued. Legislatures might have attempted to circumvent state law that defines how presidential electors are chosen. </p>
<p>Many folks argue such chicanery could never happen, because once presidential electors are chosen on Election Day, then that’s it. But if the court had suggested a legislature is not bound by its state constitution, some people might make arguments to sow discontent during the weeks between the election and the inauguration. </p>
<p>Other safeguards might have stopped the harm, but the fear of trouble would have been real. </p>
<p>Fortunately, that has been avoided. </p>
<p><em>This story includes material from an <a href="https://theconversation.com/independent-state-legislature-doctrine-now-before-supreme-court-could-reverse-200-years-of-progress-in-giving-more-say-over-elections-to-the-people-186282">earlier story on the case</a> by the same author.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208617/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Henry L. Chambers Jr. does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It’s official: State courts can review lawmakers’ election-district boundary decisions to ensure they comply with state law.Henry L. Chambers Jr., Professor of Law, University of RichmondLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2065702023-06-05T12:07:50Z2023-06-05T12:07:50ZBaseless anti-trans claims fuel adoption of harmful laws – two criminologists explain<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529672/original/file-20230601-29-zn4nbx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C56%2C4716%2C3087&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Kansas legislators Brenda Landwehr, left, and Chris Croft confer during a vote on an anti-transgender bathroom bill, which both support.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/TransgenderHealthKansas/63880be5083f47a499bd396dee2a3631/photo">AP Photo/John Hanna</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It has been seven years since North Carolina made headlines for enacting a “<a href="https://jaapl.org/content/jaapl/46/2/232.full.pdf">bathroom bill</a>” – legislation intended to prevent transgender people from using restrooms that align with their gender identity. </p>
<p>After boycotts threatened to cost the state more than <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/27/bathroom-bill-to-cost-north-carolina-376-billion.html">US$3.7 billion</a>, legislators <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/23/us/north-carolina-transgender-bathrooms.html">repealed the law</a> in 2017. Since then, however, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/cou0000270">religious</a> <a href="https://brill.com/view/journals/rag/11/1/article-p67_5.xml">and</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/lsi.2021.1">political</a> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/25/us/politics/transgender-laws-republicans.html">conservatives</a> have successfully spread an <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/01/opinion/america-is-being-consumed-by-a-moral-panic-over-trans-people.html">anti-trans</a> <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/anti-trans-moral-panics-endanger-all-young-people/">moral panic</a>, or irrational fear, across the United States.</p>
<p>As far back as 2001, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-republican-transgender-laws-pile-up-setting-2024-battle-lines-2023-05-18/">Republican lawmakers</a> proposed the first of what are now <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/06/politics/anti-lgbtq-plus-state-bill-rights-dg/index.html">nearly 900 anti-LGBTQ+ bills</a>. <a href="https://www.aclu.org/legislative-attacks-on-lgbtq-rights">More than 500 of these</a> were introduced in 49 state legislatures and the U.S. Congress during the first five months of 2023. To date, at least <a href="https://translegislation.com/">79 have passed</a>.</p>
<p>Many of these anti-trans laws are <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/inside-playbook-transgender-health-bills-99475030">written</a> <a href="https://newrepublic.com/article/165403/groups-pushing-anti-trans-laws-want-divide-lgbtq-movement">and</a> <a href="https://www.axios.com/2023/03/31/anti-trans-bills-2023-america">financed</a> by a group of far-right interest groups, including the Alliance Defending Freedom, the Family Research Council, the Liberty Counsel and the American Principles Project. </p>
<p>These groups claim their proposed laws would protect cisgender women and girls – those whose gender identity matches the sex they were assigned at birth – from the sorts of violent trans people that are often depicted in <a href="https://perma.cc/W43F-7YKZ">movies</a> <a href="https://www.glaad.org/new-york-times-sign-on-letter-from-lgtbq-allied-leaders-and-organizations">and</a> <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/25/entertainment/transgender-jk-rowling-media-intl/index.html">other</a> <a href="https://inthesetimes.com/article/kayla-denker-speaks-out-against-death-threats-transphobic-backlash">media</a>. </p>
<p>But as <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=SYMKKZQAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">criminologists</a>, <a href="https://healthpolicyresearch-scholars.org/scholars/alexis-rowland/">we</a> know these claims are without merit. No reliable data supports the argument that transgender people commit violent crimes at higher rates than cisgender men and women. In fact, transgender people are more than <a href="https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2020.306099">four times</a> as likely to be the victim of a crime as cisgender people.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529654/original/file-20230601-20-9b3l28.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C7%2C4758%2C3165&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A group of people walk down a sidewalk carrying flags promoting equality and LGBTQ+ rights" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529654/original/file-20230601-20-9b3l28.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C7%2C4758%2C3165&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529654/original/file-20230601-20-9b3l28.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529654/original/file-20230601-20-9b3l28.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529654/original/file-20230601-20-9b3l28.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529654/original/file-20230601-20-9b3l28.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529654/original/file-20230601-20-9b3l28.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529654/original/file-20230601-20-9b3l28.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Demonstrators protest against a Tennessee proposal to ban drag shows, one of many anti-trans proposals across the U.S.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/PrideFestivals/156f97554dbe49df84b950452bee9569/photo">John Amis/AP Images for Human Rights Campaign</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Expanding reach</h2>
<p>Anti-trans laws like the one enacted in <a href="https://apnews.com/article/transgender-rights-bathroom-law-kansas-b3d068afa2bc02bb15314ee04e8e3899">Kansas</a> over the governor’s veto reach beyond restrooms to limit access to many sex-segregated spaces, including “<a href="https://apnews.com/article/transgender-rights-bathroom-law-kansas-b3d068afa2bc02bb15314ee04e8e3899">locker rooms, prisons, domestic violence shelters and rape crisis centers</a>,” based on the sex assigned at birth to a person who seeks to use those spaces.</p>
<p>As of the end of May 2023, at least <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/map-gender-affirming-care-targeted-us/story?id=97443087">18</a> <a href="https://www.axios.com/2023/03/18/gender-affirming-health-care-bans-transgender-lgbt">states</a> had enacted laws within the preceding 12 months that limit medically age-appropriate gender-affirming health care for trans minors, with similar bills pending in 14 more states. And Florida’s barrage of anti-LGBTQ+ regulations even prohibits the mere discussion <a href="https://apnews.com/article/desantis-florida-dont-say-gay-ban-684ed25a303f83208a89c556543183cb">of sexuality and gender identity in schools</a> through the 12th grade. Journalist Adam Rhodes called these efforts a “<a href="https://theappeal.org/anti-trans-bills-transgender-state-legislation/">centrally coordinated attack on transgender existence</a>.” </p>
<p>We believe these laws and bills illustrate the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/06/politics/anti-lgbtq-plus-state-bill-rights-dg/index.html">increasingly</a> <a href="https://www.thecanary.co/us/us-analysis/2023/05/23/floridas-desantis-issues-slew-of-anti-lgbtq-legislation-ahead-of-presidential-campaign/">hostile</a> <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/24/politics/montana-drag-story-hour-ban/index.html">legislative</a> landscape for LGBTQ+ people despite polls showing that most people in the United States <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2022/06/28/americans-complex-views-on-gender-identity-and-transgender-issues/">want trans people to be protected from discrimination</a> in public spaces on the basis of their gender.</p>
<h2>What the data shows</h2>
<p>A variety of <a href="https://www.hrc.org/resources/myths-and-facts-battling-disinformation-about-transgender-rights">myths</a>, <a href="https://www.splcenter.org/news/2023/03/31/we-must-fight-anti-trans-disinformation">false narratives</a>, <a href="https://www.thepinknews.com/2023/03/31/trans-myths-debunked-science/">bad science</a>, <a href="https://scholarship.law.cornell.edu/clr/vol104/iss7/2/">misconceptions</a> and <a href="https://aninjusticemag.com/are-50-of-trans-women-in-prison-sex-offenders-512f949c365a">outright</a> <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/41-per-cent-trans-transgender-trans-women-prisoners-sex-offenders-false-study-statistic-this-is-why-a8072431.html">misrepresentations</a> undergird anti-trans laws. The reality, however, is that trans-exclusionary laws do not protect cisgender women and girls from harassment or violence. Rather, they result in dramatic increases in violent victimization for transgender and gender-nonconforming adults and children.</p>
<p>When laws permit transgender people to access sex-segregated spaces in accordance with their gender identities, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s13178-018-0335-z">crime rates do not increase</a>. There is <a href="https://www.lgbtmap.org/file/bathroom-ban-laws.pdf">no association</a> between trans-inclusive policies and more crime. As one of us wrote in a recent paper, this is likely because, just like cisgender folks, “<a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4419750">transgender people use locker rooms and restrooms to change clothes and go to the bathroom</a>,” not for sexual gratification or predatory reasons.</p>
<p>Conversely, when trans people are forced by law to use sex-segregated spaces that align with the sex assigned to them at birth instead of their gender identity, two important facts should be noted. </p>
<p>First, no studies show that violent crime rates against cisgender women and girls in such spaces decrease. In other words, cisgender women and girls are no safer than they would be in the absence of anti-trans laws. Certainly, the possibility exists that a cisgender man might pose as a woman to go into certain spaces under <a href="https://perma.cc/C7DB-63RL">false pretenses</a>. But that same possibility remains regardless of whether transgender people are lawfully permitted in those spaces.</p>
<p>Second, trans people are <a href="https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2020.306099">significantly more likely</a> to be victimized in sex-segregated spaces than are cisgender people. For instance, while incarcerated in facilities designated for men, trans women are <a href="https://perma.cc/N9QG-3BML">nine to 13 times</a> as likely to be sexually assaulted as the men with whom they are boarded. </p>
<p>In women’s prisons, correctional staff are responsible for 41% of women’s <a href="https://bjs.ojp.gov/library/publications/sexual-victimization-prisons-and-jails-reported-inmates-2011-12-update">sexual victimization</a>, with cisgender women committing the balance of nearly all prisoner-on-prisoner violence. Similarly, trans boys and girls who are barred from using the washrooms and locker rooms that align with their gender identity are respectively <a href="https://doi.org/10.1542%2Fpeds.2018-2902">between 26% to 149% more likely</a> to be sexually victimized in the locations they are forced to use than cisgender youths.</p>
<p>In society at large, between <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/violenceprevention/pdf/nisvs_report2010-a.pdf">84% and 90%</a> of all crimes of sexual violence are perpetrated by someone the victim knows, not a stranger lurking in the shadows – or the showers or restroom stalls. But trans and nonbinary people feel very unsafe in bathrooms and locker rooms, though others experience relative safety there. In fact, the <a href="https://perma.cc/ZZJ9-78M7">largest study of its kind</a> found that upward of 75% of trans men and 64% of trans women reported that they routinely avoid public restrooms to minimize their chances of being harassed or assaulted.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529657/original/file-20230601-29-9sd8yv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A person cries out while being handled by police officers." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529657/original/file-20230601-29-9sd8yv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529657/original/file-20230601-29-9sd8yv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529657/original/file-20230601-29-9sd8yv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529657/original/file-20230601-29-9sd8yv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529657/original/file-20230601-29-9sd8yv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529657/original/file-20230601-29-9sd8yv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529657/original/file-20230601-29-9sd8yv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Qween Jean, a transgender rights activist, is arrested May 31, 2023, during a trans-rights demonstration in New York City.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/queen-jean-is-arrested-during-a-weekly-protest-in-support-news-photo/1258341307">Stephanie Keith/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Lies drive harm</h2>
<p>Because <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10612-021-09590-0">criminological data does not support trans-exclusionary laws or policies</a>, advocates of anti-trans laws often resort to <a href="https://www.houstonpress.com/news/mass-shooters-are-almost-never-trans-13743586">lies</a>, flawed anecdotal evidence, or what fact-checkers have called “<a href="https://apnews.com/article/fact-check-transgender-nashville-shooting-misinformation-cd62492d066d41e820c138256570978c">extreme cherry-picking</a>” to support their position. </p>
<p>For instance, <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4419750">one of us documented</a> how isolated news stories, often from notoriously <a href="https://perma.cc/N6XV-B3HD">transphobic tabloids</a>, conflate the actions of sexual predators with the “dangerousness” of trans women. Although there are undeniably examples of actual transgender people committing crimes, even deeply troubling ones, they are not evidence of any behavioral trends among the broader class of trans people. <a href="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2023/03/tennessee-school-shooting-trans-people-guns/">No such</a> <a href="https://issuu.com/sfgnissues/docs/sfgn_04-06-23-smalls/s/22221040">data exists</a>.</p>
<p>We believe the spate of anti-trans proposals represents a textbook example of crime-control theater – an <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/law0000099">unnecessary</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/law0000302">ineffective</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0734016817710695">harmful</a> legislative response to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/01442872.2021.1952971">unfounded fearmongering</a>.</p>
<p>Anti-trans laws are not just baseless. They’re <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10841806.2019.1659048">hurtful and damaging</a>, especially to <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/anti-trans-moral-panics-endanger-all-young-people/">LGBTQ+ teenagers</a>. <a href="https://www.thetrevorproject.org/survey-2023/">Recent polls</a> indicate that more than 60% of these people experience <a href="https://www.statnews.com/2023/05/01/mental-health-lgbtq-youth/">deteriorating mental health</a> – including depression, anxiety and suicidal thoughts – as a result of laws and policies aimed at restricting their personhood.</p>
<p>The criminological research is clear that anti-trans laws do not help the people they are claimed to protect. In fact, these laws inflict harm on people who are even more vulnerable.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206570/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Henry F. Fradella has received funding from the National Science Foundation and the National Institute of Justice, but not with regard to anything relevant to the subject matter of this piece.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alexis Rowland does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Transgender people are more than four times as likely to be the victim of a crime as cisgender people.Henry F. Fradella, Professor, School of Criminology and Criminal Justice. Affiliate Professor, Sandra Day O'Connor College of Law., Arizona State UniversityAlexis Rowland, Ph.D. Student in Criminology, Law and Society, University of California, IrvineLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1908192022-09-30T19:19:45Z2022-09-30T19:19:45ZThe Supreme Court is back in session, with new controversial cases that stand to change many Americans’ lives – here’s what to expect<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/487386/original/file-20220929-24-y1wyxk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Supreme Court is set to start its latest term on Oct. 3, 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/two-civilians-walk-past-the-fenced-off-united-states-supreme-court-picture-id1411738675">Robert Nickelsberg/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Following a <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-seismic-change-has-taken-place-at-the-supreme-court-but-its-not-clear-if-the-shift-is-about-principle-or-party-190815">dramatic year of controversial rulings</a>, the Supreme Court began hearing new cases on Oct. 3, 2022, with a full agenda. </p>
<p>The court <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-revolutionary-ruling-and-not-just-for-abortion-a-supreme-court-scholar-explains-the-impact-of-dobbs-185823">overturned abortion rights</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/supreme-court-sweeps-aside-new-yorks-limits-on-carrying-a-gun-raising-second-amendment-rights-to-new-heights-183486">expanded gun rights</a> in June 2022 as the <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/video/conservative-supreme-court-spells-america-095209727.html">new conservative supermajority</a> began to exert its influence. </p>
<p>Some of the court’s most important upcoming cases focus on the <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/students-for-fair-admissions-inc-v-president-fellows-of-harvard-college/">future of affirmative action</a>, <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/303-creative-llc-v-elenis/">equal treatment of LGBTQ people</a>, and the <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/moore-v-harper-2/">control of election laws</a>. The court will hear the cases in the fall and then likely issue rulings in spring 2023. </p>
<p>As a <a href="https://www.springer.com/series/16259">close observer of the court</a>, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=-aGQIZwAAAAJ&hl=en">I think</a> this term’s rulings will continue to reject the court’s previous liberal decisions and instead reflect a conservative interpretation of the historical meaning of the Constitution. At least three of those upcoming rulings are likely to profoundly influence people’s everyday lives in the United States. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/487387/original/file-20220929-14-nwwafp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A person walks through brick gates, with a large brick building in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/487387/original/file-20220929-14-nwwafp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/487387/original/file-20220929-14-nwwafp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487387/original/file-20220929-14-nwwafp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487387/original/file-20220929-14-nwwafp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487387/original/file-20220929-14-nwwafp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487387/original/file-20220929-14-nwwafp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487387/original/file-20220929-14-nwwafp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">One of the Supreme Court’s most publicized cases this term focuses on whether Harvard University unfairly discriminates against Asian American student applicants.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/scenes-around-harvard-yard-at-harvard-university-in-cambridge-ma-on-picture-id1237976584">Suzanne Kreiter/The Boston Globe via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Affirmative action</h2>
<p>College admissions and scholarships can alter the trajectory of a life. </p>
<p>College administrators want diverse student populations but are less clear about which categories – including race, ethnicity, gender, sexual identity and wealth – should influence admission and financial aid decisions. When it comes down to the specifics of which people are underrepresented in higher education, and which are overrepresented, the questions become thorny. </p>
<p>Many different groups feel that they are being mistreated when their specific circumstances and histories are taken into account.</p>
<p>The Supreme Court <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/terms/ot2022/">will hear two lawsuits</a> on Oct. 31, 2022, brought by the anti-affirmative action organization <a href="https://studentsforfairadmissions.org/">Students for Fair Admissions</a>. This group argues that Harvard and other schools blatantly discriminate against Asian students. But the claim is a proxy for all other preferences grounded in identity, including those in favor of Black applicants and those disadvantaging whites. </p>
<p>The two cases – one against <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/students-for-fair-admissions-inc-v-president-fellows-of-harvard-college/">Harvard</a> and the other against the <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/students-for-fair-admissions-inc-v-university-of-north-carolina/">University of North Carolina</a> – address private as well as public institutions. </p>
<p>Nine states currently have laws <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/26/us/affirmative-action-admissions-supreme-court.html">that ban</a> affirmative action in college admissions. The extent and focus of existing <a href="https://www.acenet.edu/Policy-Advocacy/Pages/Law-Courts/Diversity-in-Admissions.aspx">diversity policies vary widely</a>. </p>
<p>Universities justifying their diversity policies argue that the <a href="https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/amendment-14/">14th Amendment</a> and its guarantee of “equal protection of the laws” encourage giving an advantage to historically oppressed groups. </p>
<p>The opponents of affirmative action argue that the 14th Amendment was <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/20/20-1199/169941/20210225095525027_Harvard%20Cert%20Petn%20Feb%2025.pdf#page=34">meant to uphold racial neutrality</a>, meaning all individuals should be treated the same, regardless of race. In this view, the Constitution forbids considering race in almost any decisions that influence individual advancement.</p>
<p>The core conflict is whether the <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/amendmentxiv">equal protection clause</a> protects <a href="https://www.thoughtco.com/equity-vs-equality-4767021">equality or equity</a>. </p>
<p>If is it equality – the same treatment of all races, regardless – this supports the argument that universities may not give preferences to applicants of one race over another. </p>
<p>If the 14th Amendment is found to guarantee equity – or trying to create equal outcomes for all by favoring historically disadvantaged groups – this supports the argument that affirmative action policies are constitutionally sound, and perhaps even required in public institutions.</p>
<p>The current court, with a conservative majority, almost certainly favors the argument that the equal protection clause endorses equality, not equity. </p>
<p>In a <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/codeswitch/2014/04/23/306173835/two-justices-debate-the-doctrine-of-colorblindness">2007 ruling on public high schools</a>, for example, Chief Justice John Roberts wrote that “the way to stop discrimination on the basis of race is to stop discriminating <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/06pdf/05-908.pdf#page=48">on the basis of race</a>.” </p>
<h2>LGBTQ equality versus religious liberty</h2>
<p>Another major case, <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/303-creative-llc-v-elenis/">303 Creative v. Elenis</a>, asks the court whether state law can compel a private business to serve LGBTQ clients – or whether the <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/first_amendment">First Amendment</a> protects business owners who violate those laws on religious grounds.</p>
<p>The controversy focuses on a website designer who wants to expand her business to offer personal wedding sites – but not for same-sex couples, as required by <a href="https://one-colorado.org/lgbtq-resources/anti-discrimination-laws-colorado/">Colorado’s nondiscrimination laws</a>.</p>
<p>The case comes close to addressing the long-standing conflict between a person’s free exercise of religion, guaranteed by the First Amendment, and a state’s power to enforce the equal treatment of all citizens. </p>
<p>But the question presented in this case focuses on the website designer’s free speech and artistic expression, rather than the <a href="https://theconversation.com/religious-liberty-has-a-long-and-messy-history-and-there-is-a-reason-americans-feel-strongly-about-it-186613">religious motivation</a> at the heart of the conflict. </p>
<p>The court’s recent history of <a href="https://theconversation.com/religious-liberty-has-a-long-and-messy-history-and-there-is-a-reason-americans-feel-strongly-about-it-186613">supporting religious liberty</a> suggests that the website designer will prevail. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/487388/original/file-20220929-1555-nmk8bl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="People hold up cut-out blue and red maps of states that say things like 'balance power,' and a sign that says 'end gerrymandering now,' outside the Supreme Court." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/487388/original/file-20220929-1555-nmk8bl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/487388/original/file-20220929-1555-nmk8bl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487388/original/file-20220929-1555-nmk8bl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487388/original/file-20220929-1555-nmk8bl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487388/original/file-20220929-1555-nmk8bl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487388/original/file-20220929-1555-nmk8bl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487388/original/file-20220929-1555-nmk8bl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People protest against gerrymandering outside the Supreme Court in March 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/fair-maps-rally-was-held-in-front-of-the-us-supreme-court-on-tuesday-picture-id1153804265">Sarah L. Voisin/The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Who controls election laws</h2>
<p>The third major case this term – <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/moore-v-harper-2/">Moore v. Harper</a> – is about the control of election law and what is known as the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-independent-state-legislature-doctrine-could-reverse-200-years-of-progress-and-take-power-away-from-the-people-186282">independent state legislature theory</a>. </p>
<p>The somewhat arcane question is whether only the U.S. Constitution controls state legislatures’ decisions regarding federal elections rules within their states or whether state constitutions and courts can also oversee the election laws that apply to national elections.</p>
<p>In this case, the <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/moore-v-harper-explained">court will rule</a> on whether the North Carolina Supreme Court can strike down and replace the Legislature’s congressional map, which the <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/04/north-carolina-congressional-map-struck-down-00005974">state court found</a> was gerrymandered in violation of the North Carolina Constitution.</p>
<p>In an atmosphere of political distrust and <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/elections-democracy-opinion-poll-2022-09-04/">accusations of election fraud</a>, the court will determine who controls federal election law within each state. </p>
<p>The constitutional text on this question is admittedly unclear.</p>
<p>Supporters of the independent state legislature theory argue that because the Constitution <a href="https://constitutionallawreporter.com/article-01-section-04/#:%7E:text=Article%201%2C%20Section%204&text=The%20Times%2C%20Places%20and%20Manner,the%20Places%20of%20chusing%20Senators.">states that</a> congressional election rules “shall be prescribed in each State by the Legislature thereof,” this power applies solely to state legislatures.</p>
<p>This interpretation means that election rules are not constrained by state constitutions, which often have additional protections of <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/redistricting/free-equal-election-clauses-in-state-constitutions.aspx">“free and equal” elections</a>, enforced by state courts. Instead, only the U.S. Constitution could constrain state legislatures – and only federal courts, including the Supreme Court, could review these decisions. </p>
<p>Critics of the independent state legislature theory argue that even though the U.S. Constitution tasks state legislatures with overseeing election law, ordinary checks and balances that constrain those legislatures still apply. This would mean that other state officials and state courts maintain their usual role in limiting the power of the legislature, which was not meant to be fully independent.</p>
<p>Concerns about independent state legislatures are partly driven by two fears. One is that if legislatures are truly independent, they may <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/06/30/1107648753/supreme-court-north-carolina-redistricting-independent-state-legislature-theory">impose discriminatory laws that benefit their party</a> – often Republicans at the state level.</p>
<p>The other fear is that Republican legislatures may attempt to <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/07/moore-harper-scotus-independent-state-legislature-election-power/670992">alter the final slate of electors</a> in the 2024 presidential election if former President Donald Trump runs and loses the popular vote in states with GOP legislatures. </p>
<p>This case is partially about trust – whether Americans trust state legislatures or state courts to oversee legitimate elections. And <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/07/22/key-findings-about-americans-declining-trust-in-government-and-each-other/">trust among the American public</a> is in <a href="https://www.gallup.com/workplace/393401/trust-decline-rebuild.aspx">short supply</a>.</p>
<h2>The year at the court</h2>
<p>The outcomes of this term’s cases will deeply influence American lives and values, especially for college applicants, LGBTQ citizens and people with strong religious beliefs. </p>
<p>The state legislature case is the most difficult to understand, and also perhaps the most influential, because it reflects the broader decline of trust in elections and the growing suspicions of fraud along many dimensions. I believe that this case – however resolved – will lower perceptions of the legitimacy of many future election outcomes.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/190819/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Morgan Marietta does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Affirmative action, discrimination against LGBTQ people and election laws are some of the hot-button issues that the Supreme Court will tackle this fall.Morgan Marietta, Professor of Political Science, UMass LowellLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1889482022-08-29T12:38:36Z2022-08-29T12:38:36ZWorkhorses, not show horses: Five ways to promote effective lawmaking in Congress<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481107/original/file-20220825-22-qlt1zq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=26%2C0%2C5836%2C3894&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">There are ways to get things done under the U.S. Capitol dome.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CongressBudget/2b8fa60af73b4c878ed623a6e137dead/photo?Query=US%20Congress&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=77688&currentItemNo=99">AP Photo/Patrick Semansky</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/1600/congress-public.aspx">Americans dislike Congress</a>, especially when it fails to act on pressing problems. They are then surprised by legislative accomplishments on climate change, gun control and maintaining competitiveness with China.</p>
<p>But Congress <a href="https://theconversation.com/debunking-the-myth-of-legislative-gridlock-154329">does much more on a daily basis</a> than deal – or fail to deal – with high-profile issues. </p>
<p><a href="https://thelawmakers.org/center-personnel">We have spent</a> more than a decade exploring the thousands of bills and hundreds of laws produced by members of Congress each year. We find that individual representatives and senators vary dramatically in how interested they are in lawmaking and how effectively they advance their proposals. And we see opportunities to build a better Congress.</p>
<p>We have devised and generated a “Legislative Effectiveness Score” for each member of the House and Senate for each two-year Congress for the past 50 years. <a href="https://thelawmakers.org/methodology">These scores are based on 15 metrics</a>, capturing how many bills each lawmaker sponsors, how far they progress toward law and how substantively significant they are. The scores are politically neutral, with members of both parties scoring higher upon advancing whatever policies they think are best. </p>
<p>Voters can use these scores to see how their political representatives have fared in this measure, perhaps finding them among the 23% of representatives or 19% of senators <a href="https://thelawmakers.org/find-representatives">who were highly effective</a> in the most recently completed Congress. And researchers use them to determine the factors that make lawmakers effective in Congress.</p>
<p>Based on our work, we have identified five ways that legislators, reformers and voters can help promote effective lawmaking in Congress.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481142/original/file-20220825-24-y7ndc2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two men in suits and a woman in a light jacket talking." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481142/original/file-20220825-24-y7ndc2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481142/original/file-20220825-24-y7ndc2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481142/original/file-20220825-24-y7ndc2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481142/original/file-20220825-24-y7ndc2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481142/original/file-20220825-24-y7ndc2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=535&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481142/original/file-20220825-24-y7ndc2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=535&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481142/original/file-20220825-24-y7ndc2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=535&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Lawmakers willing to work with those from the other party are the most successful at advancing their bills through Congress. GOP Sens. Mitt Romney of Utah, left, and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia talk during a joint session of Congress.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/sen-mitt-romney-sen-lisa-murkowski-and-sen-joe-manchin-talk-news-photo/1375573546?adppopup=true">Win McNamee/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>1. Lawmakers can focus their legislative agendas on their interests, committee assignments and constituency needs</h2>
<p>Members of Congress face many demands on their time. They are almost always campaigning or raising money for the next election. Their time on Capitol Hill is punctuated with committee meetings and calls to votes on the House or Senate floor. </p>
<p>Such pressures leave little time to formulate new policies, build coalitions and advance their proposals. Effective lawmakers do not have more time than others – they simply align these various activities toward a common goal of lawmaking.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2015/01/06/the-5-habits-of-highly-effective-legislators/">Effective lawmakers</a> introduce bills that combine their own interests and passions with the needs of their constituencies and their committee assignments. </p>
<p>Thus, time spent away from Washington, in their home states and districts, is focused on identifying the policy needs of their constituents and highlighting their policy successes; time in committee is spent making and refining their policy proposals; time milling around between votes is used to build coalitions. </p>
<p>For the effective lawmaker, all these different activities form a coherent whole.</p>
<h2>2. Legislators can view lawmaking as a team sport</h2>
<p>No member of Congress can accomplish anything by himself or herself. Effective lawmakers recognize this and build a successful team. </p>
<p>Our analysis found that effective lawmakers avoid the pitfall of hiring loyal campaign staffers to handle the legislative work of their offices. <a href="https://thelawmakers.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/New-Member-of-Congress-Guide-Being-an-Effective-Lawmaker-Web-Version.pdf">Starting on Day One</a>, they hire – and subsequently retain – legislative <a href="https://thelawmakers.org/legislative-research/experienced-legislative-staff-crucial-to-making-a-difference-on-the-hill">staff who have extensive experience on Capitol Hill</a>.</p>
<p>They then join with like-minded colleagues to take advantage of the <a href="https://thelawmakers.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Working-Paper-CEL-Legislative-Effectiveness-of-Party-Faction-Members-in-Congress.pdf">added resources provided by legislative caucuses</a>, such as additional staff support and independent policy analyses, apart from the help provided by party leadership. </p>
<p>Moreover, for effective lawmakers, their team is not limited to their political party. Those willing to co-sponsor bills written by members of the other party find more bipartisan support for their own efforts. Our analysis demonstrates that such bipartisan lawmakers are the most successful at <a href="https://thelawmakers.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Working-Paper-Bipartisan-Lawmakers-and-Effectiveness.pdf">advancing their bills through Congress</a>. </p>
<h2>3. Lawmakers can specialize and develop policy expertise</h2>
<p>Members of Congress need to be generalists to vote knowledgeably on diverse policy topics on any given day. Many take that generalist view to their lawmaking portfolio, sponsoring legislation in each of the <a href="https://thelawmakers.org/legislative-effectiveness-scores/health-policy-legislative-effectiveness-scores-highlights-from-the-116th-congress">21 major issue areas addressed by Congress</a>. </p>
<p>But we find that the most effective lawmakers dedicate about half of their time, attention and legislative proposals <a href="https://thelawmakers.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Working-Paper-CEL-Foxes-or-Hedgehogs-Specialization-in-Congress.pdf">to a single issue area</a>. By becoming an acknowledged experts in issues of health or education or international affairs, for example, lawmakers become central to policy formulation in their area of interest. </p>
<h2>4. Reforms can reinforce good lawmaking habits</h2>
<p>Individual lawmakers in Congress could adopt any of the practices above to become more effective. But institutional reforms could help reinforce such good behaviors. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://modernizecongress.house.gov/">Select Committee on the Modernization of Congress</a> has put forward <a href="https://modernizecongress.house.gov/116th-recommendations">dozens of reform proposals in the House of Representatives</a> over the past three years. Based on our extensive research, we believe the proposals that would attract and retain experienced staff, promote bipartisanship or encourage the development of expertise through committee-centered lawmaking can <a href="https://thelawmakers.org/legislative-research/on-the-select-committee-on-the-modernization-of-congress-recommendation">increase the lawmaking effectiveness of Congress as a whole</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481111/original/file-20220825-24-6hzzwh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="The hands of several people holding ballots and counting them." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481111/original/file-20220825-24-6hzzwh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481111/original/file-20220825-24-6hzzwh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481111/original/file-20220825-24-6hzzwh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481111/original/file-20220825-24-6hzzwh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481111/original/file-20220825-24-6hzzwh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481111/original/file-20220825-24-6hzzwh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481111/original/file-20220825-24-6hzzwh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Election workers in Pittsburgh recount ballots on June 1, 2022, from the recent Pennsylvania primary election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/SupremeCourtElections/da7f5b124d8d46468fde2a074030c5dc/photo?Query=US%20Congress&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=77688&currentItemNo=1299">AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>5. Voters can reward effective lawmaking</h2>
<p>Without electoral rewards for effective lawmaking, members of Congress may focus on being show horses rather than legislative workhorses. </p>
<p>The role of voters starts with the initial selection of candidates. Voters might consider whether candidates demonstrate policy expertise and speak about the benefits of bipartisanship, for example. They might consider our analysis showing that <a href="https://thelawmakers.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Effective-State-Legislator-to-Effective-Congressional-Representative-Working-Paper-1-2020.pdf">effective state legislators</a> and <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ajps.12010">women tend to be more effective lawmakers</a> in Congress, on average. </p>
<p>Among incumbents, <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/political-science-research-and-methods/article/do-constituents-know-or-care-about-the-lawmaking-effectiveness-of-their-representatives/27D2131C423FED666198B9A008F9D676">voters do strongly prefer effective over ineffective lawmakers</a> at reelection time. However, when voters lack <a href="https://thelawmakers.org/find-representatives">credible information about how effective their representative is</a>, it is much easier to vote simply based on partisanship or other considerations. </p>
<p>On the whole, Congress can function much better. Effective lawmakers from the past have shown the path forward. Our analysis of 50 years of data offers lessons that any representative or senator can adopt, as well as reforms and electoral pressures that can nudge them in the right direction.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188948/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Craig Volden co-directs the Center for Effective Lawmaking, which receives funding from the Democracy Fund and from the U.S. Democracy Program at the Hewlett Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alan Wiseman is the Chair of the Department of Political Science at Vanderbilt University and he co-directs the Center for Effective Lawmaking, which receives funding from the Democracy Fund and from the U.S. Democracy Program at the Hewlett Foundation. </span></em></p>What makes an effective lawmaker? Two scholars have studied 50 years of congressional legislating, and they’ve got a scorecard and a plan.Craig Volden, Professor of Public Policy and Politics, University of VirginiaAlan E. Wiseman, Cornelius Vanderbilt Professor of Political Economy, Professor of Political Science and Law, Vanderbilt UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1881802022-08-25T15:02:06Z2022-08-25T15:02:06Z4 reasons why abortion laws often clash with the majority’s preferences in the US, from constitutional design to low voter turnout<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480876/original/file-20220824-20-1o5vxe.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C8%2C5691%2C3802&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">An Indiana Senate committee hearing on a GOP proposal to ban nearly all abortions in the state, at the Statehouse in Indianapolis, July 26, 2022.
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/AbortionIndiana/f05208fb5e3d45ae947b301de993b164/photo?Query=Indiana%20statehouse%20abortion&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=51&currentItemNo=18">AP Photo/Michael Conroy</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In August 2022, <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/2022-live-primary-election-race-results/2022/08/02/1115317596/kansas-voters-abortion-legal-reject-constitutional-amendment">Kansas voters opted against</a> overturning a state constitutional right to an abortion. A few days later, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/08/06/1116132623/indiana-becomes-1st-state-to-approve-abortion-ban-post-roe">Indiana lawmakers banned nearly all abortions</a>. </p>
<p>Both are conservative-leaning states that supported President Donald Trump’s reelection bid by near-identical margins in 2020 - <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-kansas.html">56.1% to 41.5% in Kansas</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-indiana.html">57% to 41% in Indiana</a>. So what explains the different outcomes? </p>
<p>The answer is that in Kansas, voters decided the outcome directly. In Indiana, legislators did so. This distinction matters because for contentious issues like abortion, as well as in other high-profile instances, state legislatures do not always represent public preferences within their states. </p>
<p>We are a multi-university team of social scientists that has been regularly <a href="https://www.covidstates.org">polling</a> Americans in all 50 states since April 2020. In the wake of the Supreme Court’s <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/21pdf/19-1392_6j37.pdf">Dobbs decision</a> overturning the constitutional guarantee of the right to abortion, <a href="https://theconversation.com/kansas-vote-for-abortion-rights-highlights-disconnect-between-majority-opinion-on-abortion-laws-and-restrictive-state-laws-being-passed-after-supreme-court-decision-187138#comment_2851702">our polling found a disconnect</a> between the wave of new state laws restricting abortion access and the preferences of those states’ residents.</p>
<p>This raises the question of why public policy is sometimes inconsistent with what the public wants. </p>
<p>Here are four factors that help explain such disconnects.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480651/original/file-20220823-8377-l5a0in.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A room of people are seen jumping, crying, cheering and raising their arms. Int he front are two young people who appear emotional and happy." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480651/original/file-20220823-8377-l5a0in.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480651/original/file-20220823-8377-l5a0in.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480651/original/file-20220823-8377-l5a0in.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480651/original/file-20220823-8377-l5a0in.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480651/original/file-20220823-8377-l5a0in.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480651/original/file-20220823-8377-l5a0in.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480651/original/file-20220823-8377-l5a0in.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Abortion rights supporters react to the vote to maintain the right to abortion in Kansas on Aug. 2, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/abortion-supporters-alie-utley-and-joe-moyer-react-to-the-failed-picture-id1242276288?s=2048x2048">Dave Kaup/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>1. Gerrymandering</h2>
<p>Gerrymandering, or the practice of drawing electoral districts in ways that favor one political party over another, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/03/01/this-is-the-best-explanation-of-gerrymandering-you-will-ever-see/">contributes to policy outcomes that do not reflect the will of a majority of voters</a>. </p>
<p>In many states, partisan state legislatures often create districts to maximize their party’s dominance in upcoming elections. In <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/interactive/2022/gerrymandering-examples-north-carolina-illinois-alabama-texas-how-to-fix">North Carolina</a>, despite a 50%-49% presidential vote in 2020, indicating an evenly divided voting public, an electoral map proposed by the Republican-controlled state legislature would, if implemented, result in Republicans likely winning 10 of 13 congressional seats in 2022. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/interactive/2022/gerrymandering-examples-north-carolina-illinois-alabama-texas-how-to-fix/">Illinois</a>, Republicans won 41% of the 2020 presidential vote. Yet the proposed electoral map – drawn by Democrats – would, if implemented, likely yield Republicans only 3 of 17 congressional seats in the 2022 election. </p>
<p>Gerrymandering can lead to elections in which one party’s candidate is primed to win, resulting in noncompetitive general elections where the only real contest occurs during the primary election. Since the abortion issue is strongly polarized between the two major political parties, gerrymandering can result in elected officials <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/02/how-gerrymandering-undermines-democracy-us-elections">who do not represent the majority of constituents on this issue</a>.</p>
<h2>2. Low and uneven voter turnout</h2>
<p>Policies enacted by democratically elected governments can fail to reflect the will of the people they represent if people don’t – or can’t – vote. </p>
<p>Turnout in U.S. elections, especially at the state and local levels, and in nonpresidential years, can be abysmal. For instance, turnout in national midterm elections since 2002 <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Voter_turnout_in_United_States_elections">has averaged just 42% of eligible voters</a>. </p>
<p>Democratic representation is especially distorted when low turnout is combined with uneven turnout, with certain sociodemographic groups voting in particularly low numbers. In 2020, <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/large-racial-turnout-gap-persisted-2020-election">70.9% of white voters turned out to vote in the presidential election, compared with 58.4% of nonwhite voters</a>, while <a href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2021/2020-presidential-election-voting-and-registration-tables-now-available.html">76% of eligible adults ages 65 to 74 turned out, compared with 51.4% of those ages 18 to 24</a>. Outcomes in the U.S. democracy – for example, policies and regulations adopted – are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2508.2005.00357.x">skewed toward representing people who vote over those who do not</a>, so policies can become biased against people who don’t turn out. </p>
<p>Numerous factors influence the decision to vote, including whether people feel their voice matters and, to a smaller extent, how easy it is to vote. The U.S. has a long history of restricting access to the ballot box, and in recent decades the <a href="https://www.vox.com/2021/7/1/22559046/supreme-court-voting-rights-act-brnovich-dnc-samuel-alito-elena-kagan-democracy">Supreme Court has weakened laws protecting voting access</a>. In the post-civil rights era, however, most <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/turnout-gap/1B79B19C880A93C462FD1DF22F65DD15">political scientists</a> have concluded that restrictive election laws are less important than whether individuals think their votes will influence the political process. </p>
<p>So far, there are mixed signals on whether the Dobbs decision will prompt greater turnout. <a href="https://osf.io/2aczd/">Polls have found</a> that the people who care most about abortion after the Dobbs ruling tend to hold pro-choice attitudes. However, <a href="https://www.covidstates.org/reports/the-dobbs-decision-support-for-abortion-and-2022-voting">our research</a> and a recent <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/07/29/abortion-roe-midterms-poll/">Washington Post-Schar School poll</a> find that Americans who are most concerned about abortion are less certain that they will vote in the upcoming midterm elections than their less concerned counterparts. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480888/original/file-20220824-9506-aaitdg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A sign propped up on a fountain outside that lists the names of the 57 Indiana House members who voted to ban abortion." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480888/original/file-20220824-9506-aaitdg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480888/original/file-20220824-9506-aaitdg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480888/original/file-20220824-9506-aaitdg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480888/original/file-20220824-9506-aaitdg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480888/original/file-20220824-9506-aaitdg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480888/original/file-20220824-9506-aaitdg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480888/original/file-20220824-9506-aaitdg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A sign lists the names of the 57 Indiana House of Representatives members who voted to ban abortion during a special session in June, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/sign-lists-the-names-of-the-57-indiana-house-of-news-photo/1242343395?adppopup=true">Jeremy Hogan/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>3. Design of American political institutions</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://avalon.law.yale.edu/18th_century/fed10.asp">Founding Fathers feared</a> the “<a href="https://oxfordworldsclassics.com/view/10.1093/owc/9780199670802.001.0001/isbn-9780199670802">tyranny of the majority</a>.” They worried that direct democracy would be unstable, tyrannical and eventually result in violent failure. </p>
<p>In contrast, a large, representative republic bound by the Constitution theoretically creates a system in which interests would counteract one another to prevent any one from dominating the others. The system was intended to elect representatives who were more patriotic, enlightened and committed to the public good than the people at large, and thus to limit the direct representation of the people. </p>
<p>But the Founding Fathers’ design of American political institutions also contributes to the disconnect between the people and public policy.</p>
<p>For instance, Americans do not vote directly for president. <a href="https://history.house.gov/Institution/Electoral-College/Electoral-College/">They vote for electors to the Electoral College</a>, who then cast their vote for president. Each state’s delegation of electors is equal to the state’s federal congressional delegation. Because every state automatically has two senators, individuals in states with small populations have outsize influence in presidential elections and in the U.S. Senate.</p>
<p>The Electoral College system sometimes leads to presidential candidates <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/article/the-electoral-college.html">losing the national popular vote but winning the Electoral College</a>, and thus the presidency. <a href="https://www.uscourts.gov/faqs-federal-judges#:%7E:text=federal%20magistrate%20judges%3F-,Who%20appoints%20federal%20judges%3F,as%20stated%20in%20the%20Constitution.">The president then appoints federal judges</a>, who, if confirmed by the U.S. Senate, hold lifetime appointments and rule on the constitutionality of issues of national importance, such as abortion access. </p>
<p>Of the six Supreme Court justices who voted to overturn Roe v. Wade, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/12/02/minoritarian-third-supreme-court/">three were appointed by a president</a> who lost the national popular vote, and five were confirmed by a <a href="https://theconversation.com/5-justices-all-confirmed-by-senators-representing-a-minority-of-voters-appear-willing-to-overturn-roe-v-wade-182582">majority of senators who represented a minority of the U.S. population</a>.</p>
<p>Even in cases where the Electoral College winner aligns with the winner of the national popular vote, both chambers of Congress must pass a bill in order for the bill to be signed into law by the president. Because of Senate rules, enacting most legislation requires <a href="https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/filibusters-cloture.htm">a supermajority of senators</a>. </p>
<p>This combination of design and rules means legislative processes are skewed toward inaction, sometimes contrary to the will of the majority of Americans.</p>
<h2>4. Geographic polarization</h2>
<p>The U.S. is politically polarized along geographic lines, particularly among states and across population density. Rural areas tend to <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11109-020-09601-w">support Republicans</a> and are <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2018/05/22/urban-suburban-and-rural-residents-views-on-key-social-and-political-issues/">more anti-abortion</a> compared to urban areas. </p>
<p>The primary causes of this geographic polarization are the influence of <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/political-science-research-and-methods/article/does-residential-sorting-explain-geographic-polarization/1AF7FE72A454DD0EC78BCF890D9118EA">location itself</a>, including local sociocultural differences, as well as preexisting demographic patterns that reflect differences between typical members of the two parties. </p>
<p>So, for instance, <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2018/05/22/urban-suburban-and-rural-residents-views-on-key-social-and-political-issues/">urban city centers</a> tend to appeal to relatively young, highly educated and ethnically diverse people who tend to align with the Democratic Party. Residents of rural areas tend to be older, less educated and white, all characteristics typically associated with the Republican Party.</p>
<p>Rural areas and states with smaller populations <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/21/upshot/as-american-as-apple-pie-the-rural-votes-disproportionate-slice-of-power.html">have more electoral influence at the national level</a>, especially due to features such as the Electoral College and equal numbers of senators per state. In turn, national-level partisan tendencies can affect decisions such as judicial appointments. </p>
<p>In the case of abortion, geographic polarization has contributed to a disconnect between public preferences and government policies by yielding state legislatures whose members are, on average, more strongly anti-abortion than the overall state populations they represent.</p>
<p>The U.S. system of government was forged in the 18th century from a <a href="https://www.history.com/news/how-the-great-compromise-affects-politics-today">compromise</a> between relatively rural and urban states with widely varying population levels. It was designed to insulate the government from popular passions while making policy change difficult, and has inevitably led to public policies that fail to reflect the will of the majority. </p>
<p>Recent trends like those described above have exacerbated these tendencies. Abortion is merely the latest, and among the more contentious, cases in point.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188180/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew A Baum has received funding from The National Science Foundation and the Russell Sage Foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alauna Safarpour and Kristin Lunz Trujillo do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Why do government policies sometimes fail to reflect the public will? The answer begins with the design of the US government system, forged in the 18th century.Matthew A Baum, Kalb Professor of Global Communications and Professor of Public Policy, Harvard Kennedy SchoolAlauna Safarpour, Postdoctoral Fellow, Network Science Institute, Northeastern UniversityKristin Lunz Trujillo, Postdoctoral Fellow, Harvard Kennedy SchoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1731032022-01-25T19:43:09Z2022-01-25T19:43:09ZHow this cycle of redistricting is making gerrymandered congressional districts even safer and undermining majority rule<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442336/original/file-20220124-26263-1cn6l1u.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C22%2C5031%2C3321&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">State Sen. Joseph Thomas, D-Yazoo City, holds a copy of the proposed congressional redistricting map during debate over redistricting at the Mississippi State Capitol in Jackson, Jan. 12, 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CongressionalRedistrictingMississippi/b7eb0d569e114cc0b5eced5358a719e9/photo?Query=gerrymander&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=1770&currentItemNo=60">AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In a democracy, voters choose their political leaders. In a democracy that permits gerrymandering – when state legislatures draw legislative district lines that maximize the dominant party’s chances of winning seats – elected leaders choose their voters. </p>
<p>Gerrymandering <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/democracy-post/wp/2017/02/10/gerrymandering-is-the-biggest-obstacle-to-genuine-democracy-in-the-united-states-so-why-is-no-one-protesting/">undermines representative government</a>. But it’s nothing new. The term “gerrymander” stretches all the way back to a member of the founding generation: <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Elbridge-Gerry">Elbridge Gerry</a>, who <a href="https://prologue.blogs.archives.gov/2018/06/21/the-gerry-in-gerrymandering/">as governor of Massachusetts</a> led the effort in the 1810s to <a href="https://blogs.loc.gov/law/2017/02/elbridge-gerry-and-the-monstrous-gerrymander/">rig the state’s legislative districts</a> for the benefit of his fellow Republicans. </p>
<p>Gerry would be astounded to see the tools he’d have at his command in creating a gerrymander today. No longer do legislative line-drawers need to rely on their instincts in creating a district map that will advantage their party’s candidates. <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/10/gerrymandering-technology-redmap-2020/543888/">Sophisticated computer programs can maximize a party’s advantage</a> by creating districts that can put Gerry’s famous salamander-shaped district to shame.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/11/07/us/politics/redistricting-maps-explained.html">Redistricting doesn’t directly affect the U.S. Senate</a>, where the 100 senators represent 50 states – two senators per state – whose boundary lines don’t change. </p>
<p>But <a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/377/533/">the Supreme Court has required U.S. House constituencies to be equal in population</a>. Geographic migration requires that most House districts be redrawn after each U.S. Census to keep those constituencies equal in size. </p>
<p>In the <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/redistricting/redistricting-systems-a-50-state-overview.aspx">great majority of states, whose legislatures hold the power to redraw their legislative districts</a>, this opens the door for the dominant party to redraw district lines to increase their dominance.</p>
<p>And in the <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/03/04/with-fewer-state-governments-divided-by-party-than-in-years-past-gop-has-edge-in-redistricting/">latest round of redistricting</a>, the results - so far - have furthered the anti-democratic trend where elected leaders choose their voters, undermining the very principles of representative government.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442337/original/file-20220124-27-fl3chj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman with dark hair and wearing a mask and a colorful vest, stands behind a chair in a legislative meeting room." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442337/original/file-20220124-27-fl3chj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442337/original/file-20220124-27-fl3chj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442337/original/file-20220124-27-fl3chj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442337/original/file-20220124-27-fl3chj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442337/original/file-20220124-27-fl3chj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442337/original/file-20220124-27-fl3chj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442337/original/file-20220124-27-fl3chj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">New Mexico state senators, including Shannon Pinto, D-Tohachi, prepare for the opening of a special legislative session on redistricting on Dec. 6, 2021, in Santa Fe, N.M.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/RedistrictingNewMexico/33ba1ad1bcac4380a8a9c0d3870c4eeb/photo?Query=gerrymander&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=1770&currentItemNo=160">AP Photo/Morgan Lee</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How to gain advantage</h2>
<p>Gerrymandering is done in two ways: <a href="https://www.wiscontext.org/packing-cracking-and-art-gerrymandering-around-milwaukee">packing and cracking</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.propublica.org/article/redistricting-a-devils-dictionary">Packing involves</a> putting as many voters of the opposition party as possible into one – or just a few – legislative districts. That district becomes a safe opposition-party district, won by a massive majority of opposition-party voters, far beyond the 51% majority required for victory. If all those voters were spread around other districts, they would help the opposition win those other districts’ seats. When its voters are packed into one or a few districts, then the opposition party gets a few very safe seats, but the party drawing the lines gets many more very safe seats for itself.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propublica.org/article/redistricting-a-devils-dictionary">Cracking means</a> dividing areas of opposition strength among several legislative districts so the opposition party is unlikely to win any of them.</p>
<p><a href="https://polisci.indiana.edu/about/faculty/hershey-marjorie.html">Political scientists like me</a> can test for gerrymandering by comparing election results with a state’s “normal” partisanship. We measure “normal” partisanship by examining election results for offices that are not very visible to most voters, so their partisan loyalties usually guide their voting. Another measure of gerrymandering is to compare the total popular vote for a party’s state legislative candidates with the proportion of legislative seats that party wins.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.vox.com/22632427/redistricting-gerrymandering-house-republicans">Using either of these measures</a>, we find that gerrymandering put a Republican thumb on the scale in state legislatures and the U.S. House in the 2010s by enabling that party to win more legislative seats and pass more bills than would have happened without gerrymandering. </p>
<p>If Democrats had been able to sweep the 2010 state legislative elections, they likely would have done the same. </p>
<p>In Indiana, for example, Republican candidates for the usually low-visibility offices of Indiana secretary of state and state treasurer received an average of 58% of the Indiana vote from 2010 through 2018, indicating that around 58% of Hoosiers normally vote Republican. But in legislative elections held after the Republican-dominated state legislature redrew district lines in 2011, Republicans won a full 71% of state House seats – and 74% in the state Senate. <a href="https://dev.ballotpedia.org/Indiana_State_Senate_elections,_2012">This clearly suggests gerrymandering</a>. </p>
<p>That was true of the U.S. House as well. In <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Ohio_elections,_2018">Ohio’s most recent midterm election in 2018</a>, Republican candidates for the U.S. House got 2.3 million popular votes, or 53%, compared with 2.1 million for Democrats. </p>
<p>Yet because of gerrymandering, even in a Democratic wave year, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-house-seats-vs-votes/">Republicans won 75% of Ohio’s U.S. House seats</a>. Thus, Republicans were able to win a super-majority (three-quarters) of Ohio’s House delegation with only 52% of the popular vote. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442373/original/file-20220124-23-1g1oz8t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman in a straw hat and wearing glasses and a mask confers with a man about something on a piece of paper that the woman is holding." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442373/original/file-20220124-23-1g1oz8t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442373/original/file-20220124-23-1g1oz8t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442373/original/file-20220124-23-1g1oz8t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442373/original/file-20220124-23-1g1oz8t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442373/original/file-20220124-23-1g1oz8t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442373/original/file-20220124-23-1g1oz8t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442373/original/file-20220124-23-1g1oz8t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Kansas GOP State Reps. Brenda Landwehr, left, and Steve Huebert confer during a meeting of a House committee on redistricting on Jan. 18, 2022, at the Statehouse in Topeka, Kan.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/RedistrictingKansas/6c082cf55dfe465fa50c8ca1c7b28e1f/photo?Query=Redistricting%20Republican&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=536&currentItemNo=8">AP Photo/John Hanna</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Partisan sorting by geography</h2>
<p>The recent Republican advantage in gerrymandering isn’t the only reason for the GOP’s current structural advantage in American politics. <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-021-01066-z">Geographic clustering makes a difference too</a>.</p>
<p>People who vote <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2018/05/22/urban-suburban-and-rural-residents-views-on-key-social-and-political-issues/">Democratic tend to be concentrated in big cities</a>, where large minority populations live. So <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2020">Democratic U.S. House candidates usually receive large majorities of the vote in urban districts: 70%, 75%, even 80%</a>.</p>
<p>But that’s a wasteful majority. They need only 51% to win those seats. </p>
<p>If the surplus Democratic voters were to move to rural and exurban areas, they would make these areas more competitive for their party. Lifestyle preferences are not easily changed, however.</p>
<p>Gerrymandering distorts more than the election chances of the two parties’ candidates. It affects the policies that state legislatures and Congress pass. </p>
<p>Here’s what those majorities do with their power. </p>
<p>[<em>Like what you’ve read? Want more?</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?source=inline-likethis">Sign up for The Conversation’s daily newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>When states have heavily Republican-dominated legislatures, <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2021/06/republican-state-legislatures-changes/619086/">those legislatures are likely to pass</a> laws sharply restricting abortion and voting rights, banning mask mandates to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic and permitting the carrying of weapons without permits. </p>
<p>Where Democrats control state legislatures, they have often passed dramatically different policies, <a href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/voting-rights-states-2021_n_619d4ac1e4b0f398af0bc363">including expanded voting</a> <a href="https://www.oxfordhandbooks.com/view/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199559947.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199559947-e-23">and abortion rights</a>. </p>
<h2>Fine-tuning the squeezing</h2>
<p>After the 2020 Census, the partisan effect of gerrymandering has been more limited. That’s because gerrymanders after the 2010 Census were so effective in squeezing out the maximum number of seats for their party that dominant state legislative parties are now mainly trying to fine-tune their earlier efforts.</p>
<p>But the 2020 gerrymanders <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/01/05/democrats-avoid-gerrymandering-bloodbath/">have had another pernicious effect</a>. The fine-tuning, intended to shore up the dominant party’s existing areas of strength, means <a href="https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/2022-house-overview-still-gop-advantage-redistricting-looks-wash">that the number of competitive U.S. House districts has been whittled to a new low</a> - probably less than one in every 20 House seats.</p>
<p>As a result, the number of districts safe for one party has skyrocketed. </p>
<p>In these districts, the elected representative can pay attention to only his or her own party’s activists and identifiers; the other party can be safely ignored. So the U.S. House becomes increasingly divided between undiluted right - or Trumpist - and left wings, neither with any incentive to compromise. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.bloomsburycollections.com/book/political-polarization-in-american-politics/ch1-what-we-know-and-do-not-know-about-our-polarized-politics?from=search">That may be the most consequential effect of all</a>. </p>
<p>Gerrymandering thus becomes yet another way in which the institutional rules of U.S. politics - for instance, equal representation of states in the U.S. Senate regardless of population, the Senate filibuster and the Electoral College - <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/minority-rights-majority-rule/4E3DF177EC038D2DA91851C5316CF579">can limit majority rule</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/173103/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marjorie Hershey does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The results of the latest round of redistricting have advanced the anti-democratic trend where elected leaders choose their voters, undermining representative government.Marjorie Hershey, Professor Emeritus of Political Science, Indiana UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1610692021-06-04T12:28:24Z2021-06-04T12:28:24ZWhy it matters that 7 states still have bans on atheists holding office<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/404276/original/file-20210603-25-uh53ij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=57%2C0%2C5332%2C3637&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Above the Tennessee State Capitol, only skies. In it, any atheists?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/TennesseeStateCapitol/8a60838a2c7842caa7fa3a4c94060f93/photo?Query=Tennessee%20state%20capitol&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=275&currentItemNo=1">AP Photo/Mark Humphrey</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Tennessee’s Constitution <a href="https://www.capitol.tn.gov/about/docs/tn-constitution.pdf">includes a provision</a> that bars three groups from holding office: atheists, ministers and those engaging in duels. Efforts are under way in the state legislature to remove this exclusion for ministers, but not for duelists – or atheists.</p>
<p>In January 2021, Republican Tennessee State Senator Mark Pody proposed <a href="https://wapp.capitol.tn.gov/apps/BillInfo/Default.aspx?BillNumber=SJR0055">Senate Joint Resolution 55</a> <a href="https://www.timesfreepress.com/news/local/story/2021/apr/05/tennessee-lawmakers-want-voters-eliminate-sta/544540/">to amend</a> Article IX of the Constitution of Tennessee to rid it of a clause that states “no minister of the Gospel, or priest of any denomination whatever, shall be eligible to a seat in either House of the Legislature.” No mention is made in Pody’s resolution about <a href="https://www.capitol.tn.gov/about/docs/tn-constitution.pdf">Section 2 of the same article</a>: “No person who denies the being of God … shall hold any office in the civil department of this state.” Nor for that matter does the current bill mention Section 3’s objection to those who participate, aid or abet a duel.</p>
<p>When Pody was asked why his resolution removes only the ban on ministers, <a href="https://friendlyatheist.patheos.com/2021/04/07/tn-gop-will-fix-statewide-ban-on-priests-in-government-but-atheist-ban-remains/">his response</a> was that it is best to clean up the constitution “one simple step at a time.”</p>
<p>Tennessee is one of seven states that has an unconstitutional ban on atheists holding public office. Although superseded by <a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/367/488/">Supreme Court rulings</a>, such bans are important. As a <a href="https://www.libarts.colostate.edu/people/klee27/">scholar of religious and political rhetoric</a> who focuses on the marginalization of U.S. atheists, I believe they reflect the normalization of anti-atheism that has yet to be truly dealt with, or rarely acknowledged, in the United States.</p>
<h2>Atheists ‘not to be tolerated’</h2>
<p>Numerous state constitutions established laws banning both ministers and atheists <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/interactive-constitution/interpretation/article-vi/clauses/32">when they were ratified</a>.</p>
<p>The bans on ministers were framed as necessary to protect their “sacred calling.” The prohibitions on atheists were installed for a different reason. Atheists, it was claimed, could not be trusted to be good citizens in a democracy.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="An engraving of English philosopher John Locke" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/404287/original/file-20210603-13-5053ec.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/404287/original/file-20210603-13-5053ec.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=740&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404287/original/file-20210603-13-5053ec.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=740&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404287/original/file-20210603-13-5053ec.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=740&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404287/original/file-20210603-13-5053ec.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=930&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404287/original/file-20210603-13-5053ec.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=930&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404287/original/file-20210603-13-5053ec.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=930&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Philosopher John Locke was no fan of atheists.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/engraving-of-english-philosopher-john-locke-author-of-news-photo/50784294?adppopup=true">Hulton Archive/Getty Images)</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This sentiment was expressed by early enlightenment thinkers such as Jean-Jacques Rousseau and John Locke – both of whom influenced early American politicians. Locke argued in his 1689 “<a href="http://www.let.rug.nl/usa/documents/1651-1700/john-locke-letter-concerning-toleration-1689.php">Letter Concerning Toleration</a>” that “those are not at all to be tolerated who deny the being of a God. Promises, covenants, and oaths, which are the bonds of human society, can have no hold upon an atheist.”</p>
<p>Bans on atheists and ministers are now unconstitutional due to Supreme Court <a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/367/488/">rulings in 1961</a> <a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/435/618/">and 1978</a>. Tennessee is the last state to maintain an unenforceable ban on ministers <a href="https://www.mtsu.edu:8443/first-amendment/article/911/clergy-bans-on-holding-office-by">in their Constitutions</a>, while seven states still have their unconstitutional bans on atheists.</p>
<p>Although unenforceable, the bans periodically impede atheists wanting to hold public office. In 1992, Herb Silverman, an atheist activist and math professor, was denied a position as a <a href="https://www.nationalnotary.org/knowledge-center/about-notaries/what-is-a-notary-public">notary public</a> because of a ban in South Carolina. He had to <a href="https://www.sccourts.org/opinions/displayOpinion.cfm?caseNo=24622">sue the state</a> before he could hold the position. </p>
<p>Meanwhile in 2009, <a href="https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2009-dec-20-la-na-hometown-asheville20-2009dec20-story.html">Cecil Bothwell</a>, a local Democratic candidate, won his city counsel race in Asheville, North Carolina – but had to fight critics who claimed he was ineligible on account of his atheism.</p>
<p>These attacks continued for years after Bothwell was elected. H.K. Edgerton, a Black Confederate activist and one of Bothwell’s staunchest critics, <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/politics/unenforceable-ban-on-atheists-holding-public-office-still-on-the-books-in-8-states">complained</a> in 2014 that the council had “placed itself above the law for two terms with Cecil Bothwell sitting there passing rules and regulations and dictating law unlawfully.”</p>
<p>David Morgan, editor of the Asheville Tribune, claimed his criticism of Bothwell was about upholding the state constitution, <a href="https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2009-dec-20-la-na-hometown-asheville20-2009dec20-story.html">arguing</a> “If you don’t like it, amend it and take out that clause.” </p>
<p>Atheists have tried to do just that. But politicians show little interest in removing the bans on atheists that exist in state constitutions. As <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/07/us/in-seven-states-atheists-push-to-end-largely-forgotten-ban-.html">Todd Stiefel</a>, an atheist activist, notes: “If it was on the books that Jews couldn’t hold public office, or that African Americans or women couldn’t vote, that would be a no-brainer. You’d have politicians falling all over themselves to try to get it repealed. Even if it was still unenforceable, it would still be disgraceful and be removed. So why are we different?”</p>
<h2>Normalizing anti-atheism</h2>
<p>These anti-atheist clauses and the failure to remove them reflect a phenomenon I call “<a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.14321/rhetpublaffa.23.2.0255?seq=1">theistnormativity</a>,” which is the normalization of the belief in God as being tied to good and moral citizenship. </p>
<p>To many Americans, beliefs in God and Americanism has become synonymous. A <a href="https://www.prri.org/research/survey-americans-believe-protests-make-country-better-support-decreases-dramatically-protesters-identified-black/">2015 survey found that 69%</a> of respondents thought it was important to believe in God to be “truly American.” And Americans are expected to embrace national slogans such as “In God We Trust” and “one nation, under God.” Politicians are <a href="https://ffrf.org/component/k2/item/14015-prayers-at-government-meetings">regularly asked to participate in public prayers</a> to God before official meetings. And while they can request otherwise, the default assumption is that Americans will make an oath to God when taking public office or testifying in court.</p>
<p>While there is no ban on being an atheist in the United States, atheists have long been framed as <a href="https://www.agnostic-library.com/ma/tag/rev-ef-briggs/">un-American</a>. When Democratic Representative Louis Rabaut proposed adding “under God” to the Pledge of Allegiance in 1954, <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GPO-CRECB-1954-pt2/pdf/GPO-CRECB-1954-pt2-5.pdf">he argued</a> that an “atheistic American” is a “contradiction in terms.”</p>
<p>Even President Barack Obama <a href="https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/blog/2009/01/21/president-barack-obamas-inaugural-address">simply acknowledging the existence of “nonbelievers</a>” in his 2009 inaugural address led critics to question whether the acknowledgment was “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=twoXZE9U0Io">offensive</a>” and could lead to dangerous misunderstandings about “<a href="https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/why-does-obama-tell-muslims-america-nation-non-believers">our true nature as a nation</a>.”</p>
<p>And it isn’t just the political right. When Bernie Sanders was running for president in 2016, <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/288899-dnc-members-may-have-looked-to-challenge-sanders-on-atheism">leaked emails</a> from Democratic National Committee leadership revealed a plot to try to out him as an atheist to negatively influence perceptions of him. </p>
<h2>Impediment to power</h2>
<p>This political environment makes it difficult for open atheists to gain much political power. In a 2021 survey of Congress’ religious identity, only one person, Senator Kyrsten Sinema, <a href="https://www.pewforum.org/2021/01/04/faith-on-the-hill-2021/">identified</a> as “religiously unaffiliated.” Eighteen members replied “don’t know” or refused to answer the question.</p>
<p>Polling shows <a href="https://www.pewforum.org/2021/01/14/measuring-religion-in-pew-research-centers-american-trends-panel/">4% of Americans identify as atheists</a>, and about <a href="https://religionnews.com/2019/03/21/nones-now-as-big-as-evangelicals-catholics-in-the-us/">23% identify more broadly as nonreligious</a>. While identifying as “nonreligious” does not necessarily mean not believing in God, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1948550617707015">research suggests</a> that as many as 1 in 4 Americans is atheist, but that most are unwilling to reveal this, even in anonymous polls.</p>
<p>As such, there are likely more atheists in Congress – they’re just not open about their beliefs. In fact, in 2014, the American Humanist Association <a href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/atheist-congress-members_n_5701377">claimed that 24 members of Congress</a> privately stated they did not believe in God but would deny it if outed. </p>
<p>Political analysts have <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/shortcuts/2017/aug/08/in-god-we-trust-why-americans-wont-vote-in-an-atheist-president">long wondered</a> if an atheist could become president. It would take a brave one to try, given that <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/254120/less-half-vote-socialist-president.aspx">polls indicate</a> that only 60% of Americans would be willing to contemplate voting for one.</p>
<p><iframe id="rvdZe" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/rvdZe/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Even theist presidents get criticized if they fail to show proper homage to religion. Biden, a Catholic, was the <a href="https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/biden-omit-god-national-day-of-prayer/">first president to not include “God” in his National Day of Prayer proclamation</a>, a move Evangelical leader Franklin Graham <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/media/rev-graham-reacts-to-biden-leaving-god-out-of-prayer-proclamation-there-is-no-one-else-to-pray-to">called “dangerous</a>.”</p>
<h2>Everyday anti-atheism</h2>
<p>This anti-atheism extends beyond politics. Atheists face discrimination in the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/rel0000326">workplace</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/2329496514524541">hiring practices</a>. Parents who are religious often have an advantage in <a href="https://ssrn.com/abstract=805467%20or%20http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.661599">custody cases</a>. Even though atheists are no more likely to commit crimes than theists, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1751-9020.2009.00247.x">stereotypes surrounding</a> atheist criminality and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/a0025882">untrustworthiness</a> persist. In court, atheist rape victims are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/rel0000278">less likely to be believed</a> than Christian or religiously ambiguous victims.</p>
<p>It is in this context that the bans on atheists – although unenforceable under Supreme Court ruling – must, I believe, be examined. </p>
<p>While these bans may seem harmless, they represent anti-atheist prejudices that are ingrained in America. They remind atheists that, despite their beliefs being protected by the first amendment, being open about not believing in God has consequences.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/161069/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kristina M. Lee is affiliated with Atheists United and the Freedom From Religion Foundation.</span></em></p>Anti-atheism is ingrained in American politics. A refusal to remove outdated language from state Constitutions perpetuates this prejudice.Kristina M. Lee, Ph.D. Student in Rhetoric, Colorado State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1577462021-03-25T19:17:05Z2021-03-25T19:17:05ZGun control fails quickly in Congress after each mass shooting, but states often act – including to loosen gun laws<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/391687/original/file-20210325-21-1wgapgy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C24%2C5354%2C3486&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">After mass shootings, there are more calls for gun control. Here's one in Boulder, Colo., where 10 people died in a shooting.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/sign-calling-for-the-ban-of-assault-rifles-hangs-from-the-news-photo/1231916887?adppopup=true">Jason Connolly / AFP/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Recent mass shootings <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/03/17/us/shooting-atlanta-acworth">at three spas in Atlanta, Georgia</a> and <a href="https://www.denverpost.com/2021/03/22/police-active-shooter-shooting-king-soopers-boulder/">a supermarket in Boulder, Colorado</a> have renewed calls for new gun legislation. </p>
<p>The U.S. has been here before – after shootings in Tucson, Aurora, Newtown, Charleston, Roseburg, San Bernardino, Orlando, Las Vegas, Parkland, El Paso and other communities across the United States.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/how-many-gun-control-proposals-have-been-offered-since-2011/">Congress has declined to pass significant new gun legislation after dozens of shootings</a>, including shootings that occurred during periods like this one, with Democrats controlling the House of Representatives, Senate and presidency.</p>
<p>This response may seem puzzling given that national opinion polls reveal <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/10/16/share-of-americans-who-favor-stricter-gun-laws-has-increased-since-2017/">extensive support for several gun control policies</a>, including expanding background checks and banning assault weapons. </p>
<p>But <a href="https://theconversation.com/if-polls-say-people-want-gun-control-why-doesnt-congress-just-pass-it-92569">polls do not determine policy</a>. Stricter gun laws are <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/americans-favor-stricter-gun-laws-though-support-has-declined-from-2019">more popular among Democrats than Republicans</a>, and major new legislation would likely need votes from at least 10 Republican senators. Many of these senators represent constituencies opposed to gun control. Despite national polls showing majority <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/10/16/share-of-americans-who-favor-stricter-gun-laws-has-increased-since-2017/">support for an assault weapons ban</a>, <a href="https://giffords.org/lawcenter/gun-laws/policy-areas/hardware-ammunition/assault-weapons/">not one</a> of <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/about-state-legislatures/partisan-composition.aspx#">the 30 states with a Republican-controlled legislature</a> has such a policy. The absence of strict control policies in Republican-controlled states shows that senators crossing party lines to support gun control would be out of step with the views of voters whose support they need to win elections. </p>
<p>But, a lack of action from Congress doesn’t mean gun laws are stagnant after mass shootings. </p>
<p>I <a href="https://www.anderson.ucla.edu/faculty-and-research/strategy/faculty/poliquin">am a professor of strategy at UCLA and have researched gun policy</a>. With my co-authors at Harvard University, I’ve studied <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2019.104083">how gun laws change following mass shootings</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2019.104083">Our research</a> on this topic finds there is legislative activity following these tragedies, but at the state level. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/391690/original/file-20210325-21-qnymkw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A Democratic senator and Sandy Hook parents and teachers at a press conference in the US Capitol in 2013." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/391690/original/file-20210325-21-qnymkw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/391690/original/file-20210325-21-qnymkw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391690/original/file-20210325-21-qnymkw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391690/original/file-20210325-21-qnymkw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391690/original/file-20210325-21-qnymkw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391690/original/file-20210325-21-qnymkw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391690/original/file-20210325-21-qnymkw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">U.S. Senator Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) speaks to the press as teachers, parents and residents from Newtown, Conn. – where the Sandy Hook school massacre happened – listen after a Capitol Hill hearing on Feb. 27, 2013, on ‘The Assault Weapons Ban of 2013.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/senator-richard-blumenthal-speaks-to-the-press-as-newtown-news-photo/162798731?adppopup=true">Alex Wong/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Restrictions loosened</h2>
<p>To examine how policy changes, we assembled data on shootings and gun legislation in the 50 states between 1990 and 2014. Overall, we identified more than 20,000 firearm bills and nearly 3,200 enacted laws. Some of these loosened gun restrictions; others tightened them; and still others did neither or both – that is, tightened in some dimensions but loosened in others. </p>
<p>We then compared gun laws before and after mass shootings in states where mass shootings occurred, relative to all other states.</p>
<p>Contrary to the view that nothing changes, state legislatures consider 15% more firearm bills the year after a mass shooting. Deadlier shootings – which receive more media attention – have larger effects. </p>
<p>In fact, mass shootings have a greater influence on lawmakers than other homicides even though <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R44126/5#page=12">they account for less than 1% of gun deaths in the United States</a>.</p>
<p>As impressive as this 15% increase in gun bills may sound, gun legislation can reduce gun violence only if it becomes law. And when it comes to enacting these bills into law, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2019.104083">our research</a> found that mass shootings do not regularly cause lawmakers to tighten gun restrictions. </p>
<p>In fact, we found the opposite; Republican state legislatures pass significantly more gun laws that loosen restrictions on firearms after mass shootings.</p>
<p>That’s not to say Democrats never tighten gun laws – there are prominent examples of Democratic-controlled states passing new legislation following mass shootings. </p>
<p>California, for example, <a href="https://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-brown-guns-20160701-snap-story.html">enacted several new gun laws following a 2015 mass shooting in San Bernardino</a>. Our research shows, however, that Democrats don’t tighten gun laws more than usual following mass shootings.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/391697/original/file-20210325-23-1i2bw5k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="'Change gun laws or change Congress' reads a sign at a 2018 rally in New York City." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/391697/original/file-20210325-23-1i2bw5k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/391697/original/file-20210325-23-1i2bw5k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391697/original/file-20210325-23-1i2bw5k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391697/original/file-20210325-23-1i2bw5k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391697/original/file-20210325-23-1i2bw5k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391697/original/file-20210325-23-1i2bw5k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391697/original/file-20210325-23-1i2bw5k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In August 2018, Moms Demand Action hosted a rally at New York City’s Foley Square to call upon Congress to pass gun safety laws.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/moms-demand-action-hosted-a-recess-rally-and-community-news-photo/1229015033?adppopup=true">Erik McGregor/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Ideology governs response</h2>
<p>The contrasting response from Democrats and Republicans is indicative of different philosophies regarding the causes of gun violence and the best ways to reduce deaths. </p>
<p>While <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6237.2012.00894.x">Democrats tend to view environmental factors as contributing to violence, Republicans are more likely to blame the individual shooters</a>. Politicians favoring looser restrictions on guns following mass shootings frequently argue that <a href="https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4954192/user-clip-ted-cruz-guns-defense">more people carrying guns would allow law-abiding citizens to stop perpetrators</a>. </p>
<p>In fact, <a href="https://doi.org/10.7326/M16-1574">gun sales often surge after mass shootings</a>, in part because people fear being victimized.</p>
<p>Democrats, in contrast, typically <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1904.01596">focus more on trying to solve policy</a> and societal problems that contribute to gun violence. </p>
<p>For both sides, mass shootings are an opportunity to propose bills consistent with their ideology.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>Since we wrote <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2019.104083">our study</a> of gun legislation following mass shootings, which covered the period through 2014, several additional tragedies have energized the <a href="https://www.sandyhookpromise.org">gun control movement</a> that emerged following the December 2012 shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Connecticut. Student activism following the 2018 shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida, did not result in congressional action but led several states to pass <a href="https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/stateline/2018/08/02/after-parkland-states-pass-50-new-gun-control-laws">new gun control laws</a>. </p>
<p>With more funding and better organization, <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-a-missing-movement-made-gun-control-a-winning-issue-113301">this new movement is better positioned</a> than prior gun control movements to advocate for stricter gun policies following mass shootings. But with states historically more active than Congress on the issue of guns, both advocates and opponents of new restrictions should look beyond Washington, D.C., for action on gun policy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/157746/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher Poliquin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>After mass shootings, politicians in Washington have failed to pass new gun control legislation, despite public pressure. But laws are being passed at the state level, largely to loosen restrictions.Christopher Poliquin, Assistant Professor of Strategy, University of California, Los AngelesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1570072021-03-17T12:31:07Z2021-03-17T12:31:07ZMaking it easier to vote does not threaten election integrity<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389638/original/file-20210315-23-iup9ie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=22%2C33%2C3676%2C2389&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">An election worker during mail-in ballot counting at the Pennsylvania Convention Center in Philadelphia on Nov. 6, 2020. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/an-election-worker-talks-with-a-colleague-during-ballot-news-photo/1284290166?adppopup=true">Chris McGrath/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As state legislators consider <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/state-voting-bills-tracker-2021">hundreds of bills</a> on election policies this spring, false claims of voter fraud are being <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/27/us/republican-voter-suppression.html">repeated</a> as justification for proposals to claw back recent advances that have made voting easier for Americans. </p>
<p>In debates about election policy, making it easier to vote and election integrity are frequently presented as opposing goals. Increasing one, it is argued, means decreasing the other. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/absentee-and-mail-voting-policies-in-effect-for-the-2020-election.aspx">The 2020 elections saw many states expand voting by mail</a>, the use of ballot drop-off boxes and other procedures. In the end, turnout was high, and both the <a href="https://apnews.com/article/barr-no-widespread-election-fraud-b1f1488796c9a98c4b1a9061a6c7f49d">U.S. Justice Department</a>, under Trump Attorney General William Barr, and the <a href="https://www.cisa.gov/rumorcontrol">Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency</a>, along with a host of other election and security officials, stated that the <a href="https://www.cisa.gov/news/2020/11/12/joint-statement-elections-infrastructure-government-coordinating-council-election">elections were secure</a>. </p>
<p>Changes in election policy can either make it easier or harder to vote by adding or removing hurdles to participation. For example, state bills most commonly introduced by Democrats aim to expand the number of people voting by increasing early voting periods, allowing more people the right to vote absentee or restoring the voting rights of people who completed a felony sentence. Implementing <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/automatic-voter-registration.aspx">automatic voter registration</a> – that is, registering citizens to vote from existing government data, as many wealthy democracies do – is a particularly common reform proposal. </p>
<p>In contrast to an emphasis on making voting easier, Republican proposals tend to prioritize restrictions on mail-in voting, early voting and the discretion local election officials used in 2020 to increase turnout while protecting voters from the pandemic. Republicans claim these changes are needed to protect election integrity, another central value for fair elections. </p>
<h2>Ultimate stress test</h2>
<p>Civil rights groups are alarmed as <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/voting-laws-roundup-february-2021">many bills under consideration by states include significant restrictions</a> on voting. The more extreme provisions in some Republican proposals are even leading to conflict within the party and between legislators and the officials who run elections. Proponents of these bills claim that they will increase election integrity and that <a href="https://rslc.gop/rslc-launches-commission-to-restore-public-confidence-in-elections-by-making-it-easier-to-vote-and-harder-to-cheat/">“restoring confidence in American elections is a national priority</a>.” </p>
<p>But the COVID-19 pandemic created the ultimate stress test for U.S. election integrity last year. And <a href="https://www.govexec.com/management/2020/11/big-success-story-election-one-you-didnt-hear/169874/">election officials’ success</a> under that test demonstrates that the <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/texas-gop-launches-avalanche-bills-curtail-voting-n1260747">often-claimed</a> <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/20pdf/20-542_2c83.pdf">trade-off</a> between election integrity and reasonable measures to make it easier for people to vote is, in fact, largely false.</p>
<p>For instance, early voting and voting by mail are targeted for restrictions in many states, even though both reforms are popular with the public, worked securely in 2020 and have been <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/early-voting-in-state-elections.aspx">expanded in many states for years</a> without increases in fraud. Likewise, the collection of absentee ballots – a necessity <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/tribes-see-ballot-collection-as-a-lifeline-in-indian-country/2020/09/27/1cc1b04a-00d5-11eb-b92e-029676f9ebec_story.html">for some voters</a> – can be implemented securely with <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-ballot-collection-or-ballot-harvesting-good-for-democracy-we-asked-5-experts-156549">appropriate safety measures</a>.</p>
<h2>Making voting harder</h2>
<p>According to the <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/state-voting-bills-tracker-2021">Brennan Center for Justice at New York University</a>, as of mid-February, there were more than 250 bills in 43 states, many with provisions that would make it harder to vote. In “trifecta” states – <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/State_government_trifectas">the 38 states</a> where a single party controls both legislative chambers as well as the governorship – these bills are making rapid progress. </p>
<p>For instance, in Iowa, a new law typical of this group of bills passed along party lines in March. <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2021/03/08/iowa-governor-kim-reynolds-signs-law-shortening-early-voting-closing-polls-earlier-election-day/6869317002/">It reduces</a> the time allowed for early voting and prevents the counting of mail-in ballots that are posted before Election Day but arrive after Election Day. It also limits the number of ballot drop boxes and cuts polling place hours on Election Day. The law also strips county election officials of much of the discretion they used in 2020 that led to wildly successful mail-in balloting efforts. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389640/original/file-20210315-17-4uad0v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A joint session of the Iowa Legislature." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389640/original/file-20210315-17-4uad0v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389640/original/file-20210315-17-4uad0v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389640/original/file-20210315-17-4uad0v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389640/original/file-20210315-17-4uad0v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389640/original/file-20210315-17-4uad0v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389640/original/file-20210315-17-4uad0v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389640/original/file-20210315-17-4uad0v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In March, Iowa lawmakers passed a bill that reduces the time allowed for early voting and prevents counting of mail-in ballots that are posted before Election Day but arrive after Election Day.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/ConditionofState-Iowa/fceffbe6a6c24bb5aecc3adaf5824c94/photo?Query=Iowa%20AND%20statehouse&mediaType=photo,graphic&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=1618&currentItemNo=13">AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The bipartisan Iowa State Association of County Auditors <a href="https://www.bleedingheartland.com/static/media/2021/02/SSB1199-Subcommittee-Letter.pdf">opposed</a> the bill, claiming it threatened Iowa’s “deserved reputation for fair, efficient and smooth elections.” The day after it was signed by the state’s Republican governor, a local civil rights group filed a <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2021/03/09/lulac-sues-iowa-voting-law-signed-gov-kim-reynolds-constitutional-rights-latino-civil-rights-group/4643153001/">lawsuit</a> claiming the changes will hamper voting by minority citizens and those who are elderly, have a disability or have low incomes. </p>
<p>In Georgia, a <a href="https://www.ajc.com/politics/georgia-senate-votes-to-eliminate-no-excuse-absentee-voting/NGQOBV6XB5GGDCCNLTAJFQIDJI/">bill</a> sponsored by Republicans in the state Senate would <a href="https://www.startribune.com/georgia-senate-passes-bill-to-end-no-excuse-absentee-voting/600031763/">severely limit</a> who can request an absentee ballot and limit weekend voting. It so disgusted the party’s own lieutenant governor – who is a staunch supporter of absentee voting – and several GOP state senators that they either <a href="https://www.ajc.com/politics/politics-blog/georgias-no-2-republican-boycotts-debate-over-election-restrictions/EUJNGU34MFG3XFBC4I5RZVLJ3Q/">left or were conspicuously absent from the Senate</a> when the bill was debated.</p>
<p>In addition, an election policy task force established by Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger <a href="https://www.startribune.com/georgia-senate-passes-bill-to-end-no-excuse-absentee-voting/600031763/">criticized</a> the legislature for poor consideration of election policy last week, stating that “There is a need for responsible elections policymaking to be deliberate and evidence-based, not rushed.”</p>
<h2>Expanding or restricting access</h2>
<p>Rhetorically, the integrity of elections can refer to a great many things. However, over the past many years, election integrity has become a code word for <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/539271-rnc-launches-committee-on-election-integrity">hypervigilance over voter fraud</a>. Despite mountains of evidence that fraud by voters is <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/sites/default/files/analysis/Briefing_Memo_Debunking_Voter_Fraud_Myth.pdf">extremely rare</a>, state legislators are pushing restrictive policies such as requiring proof of citizenship when registering to vote, requiring identification when voting and limiting absentee voting. </p>
<p>After <a href="https://www.govtech.com/elections/States-Expanded-Voting-Access-for-the-Pandemic-The-Changes-Might-Stick.html">election officials successfully overcame the hurdles the pandemic threw at them</a> – such as increasing drop-box locations for safe balloting or making absentee ballots readily available – <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/27/us/republican-voter-suppression.html">many state Republican legislators claimed those modifications resulted in or risked election manipulation</a>. </p>
<p>However, some Republicans are bucking the trend in their party and are drawing on the lessons from the successful administration of elections in 2020. In Kentucky, bipartisan support in the Republican-controlled state House <a href="https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/ky-general-assembly/2021/02/26/kentucky-house-early-voting-open-records-laws/6838613002/">passed a bill</a> that would implement three days of early voting and maintain an online system for requesting absentee ballots, although only for some voters, first used during the pandemic.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389641/original/file-20210315-15-8sxbun.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman dropping off her ballot in a drop box in Athens, Georgia" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389641/original/file-20210315-15-8sxbun.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389641/original/file-20210315-15-8sxbun.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389641/original/file-20210315-15-8sxbun.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389641/original/file-20210315-15-8sxbun.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389641/original/file-20210315-15-8sxbun.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389641/original/file-20210315-15-8sxbun.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389641/original/file-20210315-15-8sxbun.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A voter drops off a ballot during early voting in Athens, Ga., on Oct. 19, 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/VotingTargetingBlackTurnout/56d4620543b144c4b4fd4fd991812ba2/photo?Query=early%20voting%20U.S.&mediaType=photo,graphic&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=5153&currentItemNo=16">Photo/John Bazemore</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>More voting, more integrity</h2>
<p>There are situations in which making it easier to vote can increase election integrity. </p>
<p>For instance, roughly 25% of adult citizens will change their address in a 24-month period, and this mobility can affect the accuracy and completeness of voter registration lists. However,
<a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/12/20/790319853/are-states-purging-or-cleaning-voter-registration-rolls">overzealously removing names</a> from the registration rolls when officials believe a voter may have moved can <a href="https://preprints.apsanet.org/engage/apsa/article-details/5f43c7e1b8a1230019967bf6">mistakenly remove valid registrations</a> and <a href="https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/7/8/eabe4498">disproportionately harm minority voters</a>.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>Perhaps the best way to ensure the integrity of registration lists is to simply expand voter registration services. During the 2018 election cycle, <a href="https://www.eac.gov/research-and-data/studies-and-reports">more than half</a> of all voter registration applications were updates to existing records. Unfortunately, many states still <a href="https://www.demos.org/research/registering-millions-success-and-potential-national-voter-registration-act-20">violate the National Voter Registration Act</a>, a federal law mandating that states offer voter registration services through various government agencies. </p>
<p>Ensuring the integrity of registration lists and making registration easier could go hand in hand, but only if states implement this federal law fairly. </p>
<p>Simply put, tightening rules to prevent astronomically rare events of fraud is likely to cause far more harm than good. The 2020 general election demonstrated that policies expanding access to the ballot – including ones targeted for elimination by some bills that states are considering this spring – can be implemented securely, even under highly stressful conditions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/157007/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Douglas R. Hess has received research funds to study voter registration access and has volunteered for the Democratic Party. </span></em></p>A record number of people voted in the 2020 presidential election. Donald Trump lost, Joe Biden won. Now, GOP legislators across the country are trying to pass measures to limit voting.Douglas R. Hess, Assistant Professor of Political Science/Policy Studies, Grinnell CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1513572020-12-21T13:06:19Z2020-12-21T13:06:19ZObama book offers key insight about how laws really get made<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375195/original/file-20201215-15-148ogx8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1997%2C1353&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In a photo from 2004, Illinois state Sen. Barack Obama, right, speaks with a fellow legislator on the floor of the state Senate chamber.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/SENATERACE/8824f91b84e4da11af9f0014c2589dfb/photo">AP photo/Randy Squires</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Amid all the attention on former President <a href="https://obamabook.com/">Barack Obama’s new book</a>, what may not have shown up in the reviews is mention of a two-page summary that, for legislative scholars like me, includes what may be the shortest and perhaps best description of how legislatures really work, even for political scientists. </p>
<p>Based on his time as an Illinois state senator from 1997 to 2004, the brief passage crystallizes the inner workings of the legislative process. As a scholar who has <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=xjStC8EAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">observed and studied state legislatures</a> and Congress for almost 50 years, I know there are hundreds of autobiographies by former members of Congress, former U.S. senators and former state legislators – all of whom offer lessons about what goes on in their respective chambers.</p>
<p>But none is so succinct as Obama’s. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375196/original/file-20201215-17-m1h17r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A 1967 photo shows U.S. Sen. Joseph Clark of Pennsylvania talking with fellow Sen. Robert Kennedy of New York." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375196/original/file-20201215-17-m1h17r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375196/original/file-20201215-17-m1h17r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375196/original/file-20201215-17-m1h17r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375196/original/file-20201215-17-m1h17r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375196/original/file-20201215-17-m1h17r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=628&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375196/original/file-20201215-17-m1h17r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=628&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375196/original/file-20201215-17-m1h17r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=628&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">U.S. Sen. Joseph Clark of Pennsylvania talks with fellow Sen. Robert Kennedy of New York in 1967.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/ADADinnerKennedyClark/725208b90cc2416d86e81fdf0c28fe22/photo">AP Photo/Bill Ingraham</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Legions of accounts</h2>
<p>One of the first legislative memoirs I read, in about 1972, was “<a href="https://www.worldcat.org/title/congress-the-sapless-branch/oclc/500267">Congress: The Sapless Branch</a>,” written a decade earlier by Joseph Clark, who then represented my home state, Pennsylvania, in the U.S. Senate. I became fascinated with the idea of legislators evaluating their own institutions – and even proposing reforms to make them work better.</p>
<p>Most legislator autobiographies are heavy on personal journeys, describing why and how they ran for office, what happened during the campaign and their legislative successes once elected. These sorts of books include former U.S. Sen. Claire McCaskill of Missouri’s 2015 “<a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Plenty-Ladylike/Claire-McCaskill/9781476756776">Plenty Ladylike</a>” and Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky’s 2016 “<a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/537997/the-long-game-by-mitch-mcconnell/">The Long Game</a>.” They pay little attention to the performance of the legislature or the wider political system – though McConnell does note the contrast between politics and reality, the difference between “making a point and making a difference.”</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375199/original/file-20201215-24-mg112m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375199/original/file-20201215-24-mg112m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375199/original/file-20201215-24-mg112m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=855&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375199/original/file-20201215-24-mg112m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=855&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375199/original/file-20201215-24-mg112m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=855&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375199/original/file-20201215-24-mg112m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1075&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375199/original/file-20201215-24-mg112m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1075&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375199/original/file-20201215-24-mg112m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1075&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Longtime Illinois state Sen. Philip Rock wrote an unusually explanatory book about the legislative process.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/PhilipRock/646fbf4d270345e089ab3a9b8e3a42f2/photo">AP Photo/John Swart</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There are exceptions to this. For instance, in Philip J. Rock’s memoir, published after his 2016 death, “<a href="https://www.worldcat.org/title/nobody-calls-just-to-say-hello-reflections-on-twenty-two-years-in-the-illinois-senate/oclc/954008489&referer=brief_results">Nobody Calls Just to Say Hello</a>,” the longtime Illinois Senate president carefully explains how at least a dozen important decisions came about.</p>
<h2>Obama’s experience</h2>
<p>In his 750-page book, Obama’s legislative insight comes early, on pages 33 and 34. Obama recounts an early speech opposing tax breaks to corporations using facts and figures that he felt certain were convincing. When he finished, Senate President Pate Philip came over to his desk:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“That was a hell of a speech,” he said, chewing on an unlit cigar. “Made some good points.” Then he added: </p>
<p>“Might have even changed a lot of minds,” he said. “But you didn’t change any votes.” With that he signaled to the presiding officer and watched with satisfaction as the green lights signifying “aye” lit up the board.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Obama went on to describe his view of politics in Springfield
as “a series of transactions mostly hidden from view, legislators weighing the competing pressures of various interests with the dispassion of bazaar merchants, all the while keeping a careful eye on the handful of ideological hot buttons – guns, abortion, taxes – that might generate heat from their base.” </p>
<p>Obama explained that it wasn’t that legislators “didn’t know the difference between good and bad policy. It just didn’t matter. What everyone in Springfield understood was that 90 percent of the time voters back home weren’t paying attention. A complicated but worthy compromise, bucking party orthodoxy to support an innovative idea – that could cost you a key endorsement, a big financial backer, a leadership post, or even an election.”</p>
<p>In that passage, Obama describes the central weakness of representative democracy: Nice-looking political institutions don’t work the way they seem, partly because organized special interests keep them that way, and more importantly, because “90 percent of the time voters back home weren’t paying attention.” </p>
<p>Legislators respond to people and interests they see and hear. Usually that means other politicians, lobbyists and their staffs. Without an attentive public, the public interest loses out. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375200/original/file-20201215-14-k5011i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Then state Sen. Barack Obama speaks during an Illinois State Capitol debate in 2003." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375200/original/file-20201215-14-k5011i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375200/original/file-20201215-14-k5011i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375200/original/file-20201215-14-k5011i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375200/original/file-20201215-14-k5011i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375200/original/file-20201215-14-k5011i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=614&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375200/original/file-20201215-14-k5011i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=614&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375200/original/file-20201215-14-k5011i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=614&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">What Obama saw during his time in the Illinois state legislature was revealing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/ObamaRacialProfiling/3caba3f57ff34b029eda4465c4048289/photo">AP Photo/Seth Perlman</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>We all know better than we live</h2>
<p>His account reinforces a truth I first struggled with in 1981 while interviewing an Indiana legislator for my dissertation. I asked him if he looked for information to better understand legislative proposals. He told me, “I can’t help but think that you think that our problem is that we don’t know what we should be doing here. It’s just like in farming, I already know how to farm better than I farm.”</p>
<p>People already know the facts of how to live healthier, work more effectively and save more money. And politicians largely know how to address what the public actually needs. It is motivation and discipline that are often the obstacles, not a lack of knowledge.</p>
<p>Academic books and articles are useful for understanding pieces of the legislative process. But they, and lawmakers’ own reflections, seldom so clearly reveal – as Obama captures – how legislators understand it.</p>
<p>[<em>You’re too busy to read everything. We get it. That’s why we’ve got a weekly newsletter.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/weekly-highlights-61?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=weeklybusy">Sign up for good Sunday reading.</a> ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/151357/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Webber does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Many former legislators offer accounts of their service – but few analyze the institutions in which they served.David Webber, Associate Professor Emeritus of Political Science, University of Missouri-ColumbiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1502372020-11-24T13:09:48Z2020-11-24T13:09:48ZRepublicans didn’t lose big in 2020 – they held onto statehouses and the power to influence future elections<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/370598/original/file-20201120-17-m4zvi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=225%2C96%2C4970%2C3453&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Who will be represented in Congress?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/illustration/people-map-on-grey-background-royalty-free-illustration/694368190">iconeer/DigitalVision Vectors via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Election Day delivered a presidential victory for the Democratic Party and narrowed the partisan split in the U.S. House and Senate. But it was nevertheless a victory for Republicans in the battle every decade to draw state and congressional districts that favor their party.</p>
<p>Beginning in 2021, states will begin <a href="https://theconversation.com/votes-cast-in-november-will-shape-congress-through-2030-146276">redrawing electoral boundaries</a> for U.S. House districts and state legislative districts, using the results of the 2020 census to determine the partisan composition of Congress and statehouses through 2030. </p>
<p>Despite national Democratic success, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/04/us/election-state-house-legislature-governors.html">the results of state legislative elections</a> put Republicans in place to be the <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republicans-won-almost-every-election-where-redistricting-was-at-stake/">long-term winners of the election of 2020</a>.</p>
<p><iframe id="8oSGs" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/8oSGs/4/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Legislative control is key</h2>
<p>In most states, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/votes-cast-in-november-will-shape-congress-through-2030-146276">legislature is responsible for drawing Congressional district boundaries</a>, and it is common that the majority party draws the lines to give the advantage to its party members, a practice called gerrymandering. In most of these states, the governor can veto legislative maps, but it’s common to have a governor from the same party as dominates the legislature.</p>
<p>In the 2010 elections, Republicans <a href="https://www.npr.org/2016/06/15/482150951/understanding-congressional-gerrymandering-its-moneyball-applied-to-politics">gained unified control</a> of 17 of the 30 legislatures that then had sole district mapmaking responsibility. And only two of those states, Minnesota and Missouri, had Democratic governors. All those legislatures, which collectively redrew 190 congressional districts, helped produce a <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/gop-gerrymandering-creates-uphill-fight-dems-house">congressional map that has been widely regarded as a pro-Republican gerrymander</a>.</p>
<p>Republican-controlled legislatures in <a href="https://www.wunc.org/post/duke-mathematicians-investigate-2012-election-results-north-carolina">North Carolina</a> and <a href="https://www.inquirer.com/philly/news/pennsylvania-gerrymandering-districts-supreme-court-20170814.html">Pennsylvania</a>, for example, produced maps that ultimately awarded Republicans with two-thirds of their state’s congressional seats despite the party capturing less than 50% of the statewide vote in the next federal election. These and similarly <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/03/opinion/sunday/the-great-gerrymander-of-2012.html">gerrymandered state</a> maps helped the Republican Party maintain their 2010 majority in the House of Representatives, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ssqu.12743">although Democratic candidates won a higher number of votes nationwide in 2012</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A finger points at a map" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359435/original/file-20200922-24-8u06hh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=33%2C0%2C3720%2C2478&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359435/original/file-20200922-24-8u06hh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359435/original/file-20200922-24-8u06hh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359435/original/file-20200922-24-8u06hh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359435/original/file-20200922-24-8u06hh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359435/original/file-20200922-24-8u06hh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359435/original/file-20200922-24-8u06hh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A small sliver of a congressional district in Pennsylvania crossed four counties, on a map that was ruled to be a partisan gerrymandering plan.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/RedrawingAmericaImbalanceofPower/28384d0ebdd74ec7b7042d734c674edf/photo">AP Photo/Keith Srakocic</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Republicans set to dominate redistricting</h2>
<p>Republicans continue to dominate statehouses in the wake of the <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/State_legislative_elections,_2020">2020 state legislative elections</a>. Democrats had hoped to flip partisan control of at least one legislative chamber in states like North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota and Texas, where they could <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/10/02/state-legislative-battles-watch-2020/">exert greater control over the upcoming redistricting process</a>. But they <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/04/statehouse-elections-2020-434108">didn’t flip any legislative chambers</a> in their favor – and lost control of both chambers of the New Hampshire statehouse.</p>
<p>In the 2021 legislative season, Republicans will have unified control of 20 of the 28 legislatures that retain mapmaking responsibility. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/11/11/where-democrats-will-be-locked-out-power-redistricting-battles-next-year/">Democrats will control just seven</a>. Power will be split only in Minnesota, where Republicans hold the majority in the Senate and Democrats control the House. </p>
<p>In seven states, Democrats will control the process, which will give them a smaller effect on the national congressional results. As a result of their greater control over district lines, Republicans may be advantaged in the 2022 House elections. But there are some forces that could counter the possibility of pro-Republican gerrymandering – including the states that have taken mapmaking power away from their partisan legislators. </p>
<p>[<em><a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=experts">Expertise in your inbox. Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter and get expert takes on today’s news, every day.</a></em>]</p>
<h2>The future of redistricting</h2>
<p>In 2018, popular referenda in Colorado, Michigan and Utah created redistricting commissions that are independent from the legislatures. And in November 2020, Virginia voters <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Virginia_Question_1,_Redistricting_Commission_Amendment_(2020)">overwhelmingly approved a ballot measure</a> to amend the Constitution to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/virginia-redistricting-amendment-results/2020/11/02/5d1ef242-19f8-11eb-befb-8864259bd2d8_story.html">create a bipartisan redistricting commission</a> composed of state legislators and citizens.</p>
<p>In addition, Democratic governors in states where Republicans control both legislative chambers, such as Kentucky, Louisiana, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, may veto plans that contain egregious partisan gerrymanders – which would likely throw mapmaking responsibility to the state courts.</p>
<p>There are also forces pushing to preserve more partisan redistricting processes. On Nov. 3, Missouri voters narrowly approved a provision that takes redistricting out of the hands of a nonpartisan demographer and <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Missouri_Amendment_3,_Redistricting_Process_and_Criteria,_Lobbying,_and_Campaign_Finance_Amendment_(2020)">places it instead in the hands of a political commission</a> appointed by the governor. </p>
<p>The measure also says districts will be drawn according to the rule of “one person, one vote” – which some believe may mean Missouri will draw its districts not based on total population, but only on the number of eligible voters. That highlights a <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/11/06/931908064/a-national-fight-over-who-is-counted-in-voting-districts-may-arise-from-missouri">growing controversy about whether to count noncitizens and others who are ineligible to vote, rather than the total population</a>, for the purposes of creating electoral districts. Using total population is the current method, followed since the nation’s founding.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359428/original/file-20200922-24-zuldqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two people point at a map" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359428/original/file-20200922-24-zuldqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359428/original/file-20200922-24-zuldqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359428/original/file-20200922-24-zuldqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359428/original/file-20200922-24-zuldqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359428/original/file-20200922-24-zuldqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359428/original/file-20200922-24-zuldqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359428/original/file-20200922-24-zuldqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Two people discuss a detail of a district map at a 2011 meeting of Arizona’s nonpartisan redistricting commission.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/RedrawingAmericaImbalanceofPowerReforms/85e912b50b1f434a89effa37659ebe96/photo">AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>People seeking to battle partisan gerrymandering can no longer seek help from federal courts, which are barred from taking those cases by a <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/rucho-v-common-cause-2/">2019 Supreme Court decision</a> that declared federal courts couldn’t review claims of partisan gerrymandering.</p>
<p>Republicans may be poised to launch another round of <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/democrats-2020-elections-state-legislatures/617047/">partisan gerrymandered districts that will last another decade</a>, but 2020 is not 2010. Fewer states will have legislators draw district lines. Democratic governors may keep Republican-dominanted legislatures in check. Grassroots movements and activist groups battling against partisan gerrymandering have attracted high-profile support, such as from <a href="https://democraticredistricting.com">Eric Holder</a>, a former U.S. attorney general in the Obama administration. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/redistricting-reform-under-threat">Opposition to redistricting reforms</a> – and specifically the adoption of redistricting commissions – may also intensify, illustrated by the adoption of Amendment 3 in Missouri and <a href="https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2020/07/federal-judge-throws-out-republican-lawsuit-against-michigan-redistricting-commission.html">challenges to</a> Michigan’s new redistricting commission. How these opposing forces will play out over the next decade is an open question, but we are certain they will combine to keep issues of partisan gerrymandering in the spotlight for the foreseeable future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/150237/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>State legislatures, which will draw congressional districts that last through 2030, are dominated by the GOP.Robin E. Best, Associate Professor of Political Science, Binghamton University, State University of New YorkSteve B. Lem, Professor of Political Science and Public Administration, Kutztown University of PennsylvaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1505172020-11-19T21:37:21Z2020-11-19T21:37:21ZTrump invitation to Michigan lawmakers could spark state and federal political crisis<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/370430/original/file-20201119-14-1m69e7j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C4%2C3000%2C1989&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Michigan Republican Senate Majority Leader Mike Shirkey, left, and Republican House Speaker Lee Chatfield are among those expected to visit the White House.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/VirusOutbreakMichigan/3d17dcaacdd747f8904ff3e2734512f6/photo">AP Photo/David Eggert</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The state of Michigan, and the United States as a whole, may face a political crisis brought on by President Donald Trump’s continuing efforts to undo the 2020 election results. </p>
<p>On Nov. 19, the president <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/11/19/us/joe-biden-trump-updates/trump-tries-to-subvert-the-election-inviting-michigan-gop-lawmakers-to-the-white-house">invited Republican lawmakers from Michigan</a> to the White House, apparently to <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/19/michigan-republican-legislative-leaders-to-meet-trump-at-white-house/6343839002/">pressure them</a> to <a href="https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/19/shirkey-chatfield-set-visit-white-house-amid-election-fight/3777657001/">change the election</a>’s <a href="https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/19/michigan-gop-leaders-trump-white-house/3779127001/">outcome in their states</a>. Michiganders voted <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/michigan-results">50.6% to 47.8%</a> for Democrat Joe Biden over Trump.</p>
<p>Media reports indicate that even before the election Trump’s campaign was already considering asking some of the <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/about-state-legislatures/partisan-composition.aspx">29 state legislatures with Republican majorities</a>, in charge of a total of 300 electoral votes, to depart from current practice in choosing their Electoral College delegates. The request would be for those bodies to select Trump electors and <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/what-if-trump-refuses-concede/616424/">order them to cast their ballots for the president</a>, regardless of the candidate the states’ voters actually preferred. </p>
<p>A similar possibility arose in 2000, when the Republican majority in the state’s Legislature claimed to possess “<a href="https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2000-nov-28-mn-58208-story.html">broad authority to allocate Florida’s electoral votes</a>,” and came close to doing so. </p>
<p><iframe id="CjTIW" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/CjTIW/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>As a student of <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/us/academic/subjects/law/socio-legal-studies/death-penalty-ballot-american-democracy-and-fate-capital-punishment">American democratic politics</a>, I believe that while there are some legal barriers that could limit the ability of legislative bodies to disregard popular vote totals in the allocation of their electoral votes, the most important constraints would be political. </p>
<p>A president picked this way by state legislatures would likely have his legitimacy questioned – and the legislatures would also likely face the public’s ire.</p>
<h2>A base in the Constitution</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360619/original/file-20200929-22-1xyyn4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An 1860 Republican presidential ticket." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360619/original/file-20200929-22-1xyyn4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360619/original/file-20200929-22-1xyyn4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1260&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360619/original/file-20200929-22-1xyyn4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1260&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360619/original/file-20200929-22-1xyyn4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1260&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360619/original/file-20200929-22-1xyyn4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1583&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360619/original/file-20200929-22-1xyyn4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1583&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360619/original/file-20200929-22-1xyyn4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1583&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In the 1860 presidential election, Massachusetts voters were told the names of the electors they were choosing to represent them.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/thehenryford/4340406087/">thehenryford/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Article II of the U.S. Constitution <a href="https://law.justia.com/constitution/us/article-2/03-electoral-college.html">leaves decisions</a> about how electors will be chosen to state legislatures: “Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors, equal to the whole Number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress.”</p>
<p>In the country’s early years, some legislatures did not trouble themselves to involve their citizens in choosing the president. When George Washington was first elected in 1788, the legislatures of Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, New Jersey and South Carolina <a href="https://www.taraross.com/post/tdih-1789-election">appointed electors directly</a> without a popular vote. The New York state Legislature <a href="https://www.mountvernon.org/library/digitalhistory/digital-encyclopedia/article/presidential-election-of-1789/">did not even choose electors</a> because lawmakers couldn’t resolve the split between its two chambers, which were controlled by different parties.</p>
<p>The first several presidential elections <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/25720603">followed a mixed pattern</a>, with some states using popular elections to direct the choice of electors, while others left that choice solely to their legislatures. As political parties jockeyed for advantage, states changed their systems often.</p>
<p>No state legislature has ever appointed a slate of electors supporting a candidate who lost the state’s popular vote. As the <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/19pdf/19-465_i425.pdf">Supreme Court noted</a> in the recent “faithless electors” case, by 1832, every state except South Carolina had passed legislation saying that the popular vote would determine the choice of its electors.</p>
<p>In 1876, newly admitted Colorado became the last state whose Legislature chose electors on its own. Today the laws of every state <a href="https://lawyerscommittee.org/state-election-law/">give voters the final say</a> about which party the electors should represent.</p>
<h2>The Supreme Court’s view</h2>
<p>State legislatures have given up the power to choose electors, but the Supreme Court has on several occasions recognized their right to take it back. </p>
<p>The first decision was in 1892, when the court declared that “<a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/146/1/">the legislature possesses plenary authority to direct the manner of appointment</a>, and might itself exercise the appointing power by joint ballot or concurrence of the two houses, or according to such mode as it designated.”</p>
<p>More than 100 years later, the court revisited the question in <a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/531/98/#tab-opinion-1960861">Bush v. Gore</a>. In a little-noticed <a href="https://heinonline.org/HOL/LandingPage?handle=hein.journals/bulr82&div=27">but highly consequential passage</a>, the majority wrote that a state legislature “<a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/531/98/">may, if it so chooses, select the electors itself</a>,” and it retains authority to “take back the power to appoint electors,” even if it formerly let the popular vote make the decision.</p>
<p>In a July 2020 decision, the Supreme Court again declared that Article II gives state legislatures “<a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2019/19-465#!">the broadest power of determination</a>” over who becomes an elector. However, the majority opinion did suggest that power might be subject to “<a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/591/19-465/">some other constitutional constraint</a>.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360620/original/file-20200929-16-aqfoj1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="The floor of the U.S. House of Representatives in 1993." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360620/original/file-20200929-16-aqfoj1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360620/original/file-20200929-16-aqfoj1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360620/original/file-20200929-16-aqfoj1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360620/original/file-20200929-16-aqfoj1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360620/original/file-20200929-16-aqfoj1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360620/original/file-20200929-16-aqfoj1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360620/original/file-20200929-16-aqfoj1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Under the Electoral Count Act, Congress supervises the counting of the Electoral College ballots in early January after the presidential election happens.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/washington-dc-1-6-1993-vice-president-dan-quayle-presides-news-photo/526950984">Mark Reinstein/Corbis via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What are the limits?</h2>
<p>The court has declared that states have the right to take back the choice of electors from the people – but has cautioned that they may not do so easily. </p>
<p>When states give the voters control over electoral picks, they confer on them a “<a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/531/98/#tab-opinion-1960861">fundamental</a>” right, which is protected by other constitutional guarantees, including the <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/due_process">due process</a> and <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/equal_protection">equal protection</a> clauses. </p>
<p>But it’s <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/44288159">not clear how strong</a> that protection might actually be. State legislatures would almost certainly have to pass a new law or resolution to make any change. In each state, a majority of legislators would have to agree. And, depending on the form of the enactment, it might or might not be subject to a governor’s approval – or a veto override.</p>
<p>Historically, courts have respected legislative decisions to change how a state appoints electors so long as <a href="https://lawecommons.luc.edu/luclj/vol51/iss2/3">the changes happen before the election happens, not after the ballots are cast</a>.</p>
<p>[<em>Insight, in your inbox each day.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=insight">You can get it with The Conversation’s email newsletter</a>.]</p>
<h2>A matter of timing</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/coronavirus-election/608989/">Postelection changes</a> of the kind Trump <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/11/19/us/joe-biden-trump-updates/trump-tries-to-subvert-the-election-inviting-michigan-gop-lawmakers-to-the-white-house">is apparently contemplating</a> would cause confusion around two federal laws that <a href="https://www.law.uci.edu/faculty/full-time/hasen/2020ElectionReport.pdf">directly contradict</a> each other.</p>
<p>One law <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/3/1">requires electors to be appointed on Election Day itself</a>. But all states abide by another law, the <a href="https://govtrackus.s3.amazonaws.com/legislink/pdf/stat/24/STATUTE-24-Pg373.pdf">Electoral Count Act</a>, passed in 1887, which gives states <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/09/trump-biden-electoral-count-act-1887/615994/">up to 41 days</a> after Election Day to <a href="https://www.rollcall.com/2020/06/01/old-law-could-leave-2020-presidential-race-in-stalemate/">designate their slate of electors</a>. The conflict between these laws provides fertile ground for litigation.</p>
<p>In the end, however, the most effective forces blocking state legislatures in Michigan or any other state from disregarding the popular vote may be political rather than legal. </p>
<p>It is, after all, up to the people to hold their officials accountable for their actions. </p>
<p>Yet in the country’s current toxic political environment, it’s not clear whether even an obvious effort to ignore the popular vote might nonetheless find support among some of the public, and some of their elected representatives too.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/could-a-few-state-legislatures-choose-the-next-president-146950">article originally published</a> Oct. 1, 2020.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/150517/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Austin Sarat does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>President Donald Trump may be trying to get state lawmakers to shift the outcome of the presidential election.Austin Sarat, Associate Provost and Associate Dean of the Faculty and Cromwell Professor of Jurisprudence and Political Science, Amherst CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1469502020-10-01T12:26:28Z2020-10-01T12:26:28ZCould a few state legislatures choose the next president?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360622/original/file-20200929-18-17m9okc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=10%2C0%2C3583%2C2392&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Florida legislature could play a role in deciding the 2020 presidential election.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/FloridaLegislature/91b6ed74ce374f93825dbf852575b866/photo">AP Photo/Steve Cannon</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>State legislatures could face legal and perhaps even state constitutional crises after Election Day, if they’re pressured to change how they traditionally allocate electoral votes.</p>
<p>Recent media reports indicate that Trump’s campaign is considering asking some of the <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/about-state-legislatures/partisan-composition.aspx">29 state legislatures with Republican majorities</a>, in charge of a total of 300 electoral votes, to depart from current practice in choosing their Electoral College delegates. The request would be for those bodies to select Trump electors and <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/what-if-trump-refuses-concede/616424/">order them to cast their ballots for the president</a>, regardless of the candidate the states’ voters actually preferred. A similar possibility arose in 2000, when the Republican majority in the state’s legislature claimed to possess “<a href="https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2000-nov-28-mn-58208-story.html">broad authority to allocate Florida’s electoral votes</a>,” and came close to doing so. </p>
<p><iframe id="CjTIW" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/CjTIW/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>As a student of <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/us/academic/subjects/law/socio-legal-studies/death-penalty-ballot-american-democracy-and-fate-capital-punishment">American democratic politics</a>, I believe that while there are some legal barriers that could limit the ability of legislative bodies to disregard popular vote totals in the allocation of their electoral votes, the most important constraints would be political. </p>
<p>A president picked this way by state legislatures would likely have his legitimacy questioned – and the legislatures would also likely face the public’s ire.</p>
<h2>A base in the Constitution</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360619/original/file-20200929-22-1xyyn4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An 1860 Republican presidential ticket." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360619/original/file-20200929-22-1xyyn4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360619/original/file-20200929-22-1xyyn4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1260&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360619/original/file-20200929-22-1xyyn4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1260&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360619/original/file-20200929-22-1xyyn4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1260&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360619/original/file-20200929-22-1xyyn4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1583&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360619/original/file-20200929-22-1xyyn4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1583&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360619/original/file-20200929-22-1xyyn4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1583&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In the 1860 presidential election, Massachusetts voters were told the names of the electors they were choosing to represent them.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/thehenryford/4340406087/">thehenryford/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Article II of the U.S. Constitution <a href="https://law.justia.com/constitution/us/article-2/03-electoral-college.html">leaves decisions</a> about how electors will be chosen to state legislatures: “Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors, equal to the whole Number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress.”</p>
<p>In the country’s early years, some legislatures did not trouble themselves to involve their citizens in choosing the president. When George Washington was first elected in 1788, the legislatures of Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, New Jersey and South Carolina <a href="https://www.taraross.com/post/tdih-1789-election">appointed electors directly</a> without a popular vote. The New York state legislature <a href="https://www.mountvernon.org/library/digitalhistory/digital-encyclopedia/article/presidential-election-of-1789/">did not even choose electors</a> because lawmakers couldn’t resolve the split between its two chambers, which were controlled by different parties.</p>
<p>The first several presidential elections <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/25720603">followed a mixed pattern</a>, with some states using popular elections to direct the choice of electors, while others left that choice solely to their legislatures. As political parties jockeyed for advantage, states changed their systems often.</p>
<p>No state legislature has ever appointed a slate of electors supporting a candidate who lost the state’s popular vote. As the Supreme Court <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/19pdf/19-465_i425.pdf">noted</a> in the recent “faithless electors” case, by 1832, every state except South Carolina had passed legislation saying that the popular vote would determine the choice of its electors.</p>
<p>In 1876, newly admitted Colorado became the last state whose legislature chose electors on its own. Today the laws of every state <a href="https://lawyerscommittee.org/state-election-law/">give voters the final say</a> about which party the electors should represent.</p>
<h2>The Supreme Court’s view</h2>
<p>State legislatures have given up the power to choose electors, but the Supreme Court has on several occasions recognized their right to take it back. </p>
<p>The first decision was in 1892, when the court declared that “<a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/146/1/">the legislature possesses plenary authority to direct the manner of appointment</a>, and might itself exercise the appointing power by joint ballot or concurrence of the two houses, or according to such mode as it designated.”</p>
<p>More than 100 years later, the court revisited the question in <a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/531/98/#tab-opinion-1960861">Bush v. Gore</a>. In a little noticed <a href="https://heinonline.org/HOL/LandingPage?handle=hein.journals/bulr82&div=27">but highly consequential passage</a>, the majority wrote that a state legislature “<a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/531/98/">may, if it so chooses, select the electors itself</a>,” and it retains authority to “take back the power to appoint electors,” even if it formerly let the popular vote make the decision.</p>
<p>In a July 2020 decision, the Supreme Court again declared that Article II gives state legislatures “<a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2019/19-465#!">the broadest power of determination</a>” over who becomes an elector. However, the majority opinion did suggest that power might be subject to “<a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/591/19-465/">some other constitutional constraint</a>.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360620/original/file-20200929-16-aqfoj1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="The floor of the U.S. House of Representatives in 1993." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360620/original/file-20200929-16-aqfoj1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360620/original/file-20200929-16-aqfoj1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360620/original/file-20200929-16-aqfoj1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360620/original/file-20200929-16-aqfoj1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360620/original/file-20200929-16-aqfoj1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360620/original/file-20200929-16-aqfoj1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360620/original/file-20200929-16-aqfoj1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Under the Electoral Count Act, Congress supervises the counting of the Electoral College ballots in early January after the presidential election happens.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/washington-dc-1-6-1993-vice-president-dan-quayle-presides-news-photo/526950984">Mark Reinstein/Corbis via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What are the limits?</h2>
<p>The court has declared that states have the right to take back the choice of electors from the people – but has cautioned that they may not do so easily. </p>
<p>When states give the voters control over electoral picks, they confer on them a “<a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/531/98/#tab-opinion-1960861">fundamental</a>” right, which is protected by other constitutional guarantees, including the <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/due_process">due process</a> and <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/equal_protection">equal protection</a> clauses. </p>
<p>But it’s <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/44288159">not clear how strong</a> that protection might actually be. State legislatures would almost certainly have to pass a new law or resolution to make any change. In each state, a majority of legislators would have to agree. And, depending on the form of the enactment, it might or might not be subject to a governor’s approval – or a veto override.</p>
<p>Historically, courts have respected legislative decisions to change how a state appoints electors so long as <a href="https://lawecommons.luc.edu/luclj/vol51/iss2/3">the changes happen before the election happens, not after the ballots are cast</a>.</p>
<p>[<em>Insight, in your inbox each day.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=insight">You can get it with The Conversation’s email newsletter</a>.]</p>
<h2>A matter of timing</h2>
<p>Post-election changes of the kind the Trump campaign <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/coronavirus-election/608989/">is reportedly contemplating</a> would cause confusion around two federal laws that <a href="https://www.law.uci.edu/faculty/full-time/hasen/2020ElectionReport.pdf">directly contradict</a> each other.</p>
<p>One law <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/3/1">requires electors to be appointed on Election Day itself</a>. But all states abide by another law, the <a href="https://govtrackus.s3.amazonaws.com/legislink/pdf/stat/24/STATUTE-24-Pg373.pdf">Electoral Count Act</a>, passed in 1887, which gives states <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/09/trump-biden-electoral-count-act-1887/615994/">up to 41 days</a> after Election Day to <a href="https://www.rollcall.com/2020/06/01/old-law-could-leave-2020-presidential-race-in-stalemate/">designate their slate of electors</a>. The conflict between these laws provides fertile ground for litigation.</p>
<p>In the end, however, the most effective forces blocking state legislatures from disregarding the popular vote may be political, rather than legal. It is, after all, up to the people to hold their officials accountable for their actions. </p>
<p>Yet in the country’s current toxic political environment, it’s not clear whether even an obvious effort to ignore the popular vote might nonetheless find support among some of the public, and some of their elected representatives too.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/146950/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Austin Sarat does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>This is not the first time the prospect of state legislatures ignoring the popular vote and appointing their own slate of electors has arisen.Austin Sarat, Associate Provost and Associate Dean of the Faculty and Cromwell Professor of Jurisprudence and Political Science, Amherst CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.