tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/storm-surges-58461/articlesStorm surges – The Conversation2023-11-03T17:32:50Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2127402023-11-03T17:32:50Z2023-11-03T17:32:50ZThe climate crisis is making gender inequality in developing coastal communities worse<p>Across the world, women and men experience the impacts of the climate crisis in different ways. These are shaped by societal roles and responsibilities and result in <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-crisis-could-reverse-progress-in-achieving-gender-equality-127787">widening inequalities</a> between men and women. </p>
<p>Sea-level rise, storm surges and high waves in coastal area do not discriminate, but societal structures often do. This makes climate change a highly gender-sensitive issue.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/">Research</a> has long shown that coastal areas are the most directly affected by climate change. Small islands in Asia, central and South America and Africa – what many term “<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-global-south-is-on-the-rise-but-what-exactly-is-the-global-south-207959">the global south</a>” – are particularly vulnerable to land erosion and economic decline, amid livelihood losses in fisheries. </p>
<p><a href="https://environment.leeds.ac.uk/geography/pgr/11413/andi-misbahul-pratiwi">My doctoral research</a> explores how in countries where women and girls already face disproportionate inequalities relating to ethnicity, class, age and education, the climate crisis is <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-womens-environmental-action-across-the-global-south-can-create-a-better-planet-214083">making things worse</a>. In <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/19480881.2010.536669">coastal areas</a>, in particular, women and girls are <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0959378006000422">ever more vulnerable</a>.</p>
<h2>Livelihoods under threat</h2>
<p>In 2017, in collaboration with the <a href="https://indonesianfeministjournal.org/">Indonesian Feminist Journal</a>, I conducted <a href="https://indonesianfeministjournal.org/index.php/IFJ/article/view/203/259">research</a> off the coast of Demak in Java, Indonesia. I found that women in coastal communities faced multiple problems, from poverty and <a href="https://wrd.unwomen.org/explore/insights/how-fisherwomen-java-rise-above-climate-change-and-increase-gender-based-violence">domestic and gender-based violence</a> to employment challenges. </p>
<p>Fisherwomen who work at sea are having to sail further out and contend with difficult conditions to find catches. One woman, Zarokah, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gzSyPW2D73o">I interviewed</a> had started fishing with her husband, two years earlier, when he could no longer find a crew to work with. They wake at 3am to head out to sea. </p>
<p>She told me a basket of tiny flying fish goes for 150,000 rupiah (£7.70) and a good haul will yield several baskets. But even when they don’t catch anything, they still have to cover the cost of supplies and equipment. <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/business/2022/10/24/warming-seas-bring-indonesias-fishermen-deadly-storms-empty-nets.html">This income is inadequate</a> when faced with a situation where fish are becoming scarcer and extreme weather prevents them from going out to sea.</p>
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<p><a href="https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/196016/">I have shown</a> how women in this area and beyond have contributed significantly to the fishing sector and coastal economies. And yet, Masnu'ah, who is the founder of a local fisherwomen’s organisation, told me that women’s economic role continues to not be recognised by their male peers and society more broadly. </p>
<p>Zarokah is still labelled a “housewife” on her ID card, despite the fact that, as she put it, “If I don’t go, my husband doesn’t go either and we cannot meet our needs.”</p>
<p>If the fisherwomen do not receive recognition for their work, they are unable to access social protections including <a href="https://www.undp.org/indonesia/news/fisherwomen-fisherman%E2%80%99s-world-improving-access-women-indonesian-fisheries">life insurance</a>. As climate change increasingly threatens the profession at large, having state support and insurance is vital. </p>
<h2>Access to amenities and healthcare</h2>
<p>It’s not just women’s livelihoods in this area that are impacted by extreme weather and any other disruptions to the fishing industry. <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/paper/2023/07/25/slow-disaster-residents-in-central-javas-sinking-village-forced-to-adapt.html">Tidal flooding</a> has also made it difficult for women and girls to access healthcare facilities. </p>
<p>Women find it difficult to access clinics because the roads are closed and isolated. One activist in Demak told me about helping a woman give birth in the middle of a tidal flood – when the houses were sinking. “It was very difficult,” she said, “because the waves were high, there were no boats. The baby died two to three days after.” </p>
<p>Research from other regions in the world show a similar pattern of increasing vulnerability. In the south-western coastal region of <a href="https://theconversation.com/bangladesh-is-undertaking-the-worlds-largest-resettlement-programme-and-the-climate-is-making-it-harder-208664">Bangladesh</a>, natural hazards, including storm surges and <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-isnt-just-making-cyclones-worse-its-making-the-floods-they-cause-worse-too-new-research-182789">cyclones</a>, have long affected women significantly. Of the 140,000 people killed in the 1991 cyclone disaster, <a href="https://lib.icimod.org/record/13783/files/1337.pdf">90% were women</a>.</p>
<p>However, the impacts are broader than that. <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/4/3744">A recent study</a> looked at women’s lives, particularly among the ethnic Munda community, in the Khulna, Satkhira and Bagerhat districts. It found that bad management of open-water sources (ponds and canals) has led to high water salinity. Women and girls, who are responsible for family provisions, have to walk up to 3km – and sometimes as far as 5km – to find drinking water.</p>
<p>They spend long hours carrying heavy water pots, which leads to chronic pain conditions. During droughts, this task can take over three hours daily. The women and girls also face harassment from boys and men while collecting the water.</p>
<p>A 2020 study in Ilaje, a coastal region in Nigeria, found that, there too, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652619338855#abs0010">women and girls</a> often bear the responsibility of ensuring there’s enough food, fuel and clean water available at home. During times of low rainfall or drought, they have to cover similarly long distances. Young girls sometimes have to leave school in order to help their mothers with these tasks.</p>
<p>Pregnant women in Ilaje, particularly, are vulnerable to health effects like malnutrition, dehydration, anemia, and other health risks related to low food and water availability during crises.</p>
<p>Due to prevailing patriarchal norms, Ilaje women lack the authority to make independent decisions within their families and in society. They don’t have control over financial matters and assets. And they are not given opportunities to participate in public spaces, in particular within community group discussions on climate change adaptation. As a result, they are unable to voice their specific concerns and needs – at both family and community levels. </p>
<p>Oceans and coastal ecosystems cover over two thirds of the planet. They <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/">play a crucial role</a> in food and energy production as well as creating employment opportunities. About <a href="https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/Ocean_Factsheet_People.pdf">600 million people</a> – around 10% of the world’s population – reside in coastal areas that are less than 10 metres above sea level. </p>
<p>The central tenet of the UN’s 2030 agenda for sustainable development is to “leave no one behind”. Applying a <a href="https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/196019/">feminist political lens</a> to the climate crisis is crucial to understanding how multilayered the problems facing women and girls in rural and coastal regions around the world are. </p>
<p>Yet, social and feminist research on how the climate is changing has been <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-954X.2010.01889.x">scarce</a>. Without it, women and girls will indeed be left behind. </p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andi Misbahul Pratiwi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Sea-level rises and storm surges don’t discriminate, but societal structures do.Andi Misbahul Pratiwi, PhD Candidate, School of Geography, University of LeedsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2138772023-09-19T11:52:50Z2023-09-19T11:52:50ZSouth Africa’s destructive storm surges: geoscientist reveals the 3 factors that drove them<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549052/original/file-20230919-27-26ykei.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Tidal surges can cause enormous damage.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Martha van der Westhuizen/500px</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>A series of powerful tidal surges <a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/battered-coastal-areas-begin-mop-up-operations-after-spring-tide-damage-20230918">battered</a> coastal areas in South Africa’s Western Cape, Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal provinces over the weekend of 16 September. <a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/spring-tide-damage-woman-dies-after-waves-crash-into-george-car-park-another-dangerous-surge-expected-20230917">One person died</a>; cars, homes and businesses were damaged. The Conversation Africa asked Jasper Knight, a geoscientist who researches coastal processes, to explain what happened.</em></p>
<h2>What drove the flooding?</h2>
<p>A critical combination of three factors resulted in this significant flooding. First, a storm surge associated with low-pressure weather systems coming onshore. These happen very commonly but often don’t result in high amounts of flooding by themselves. </p>
<p>Second, low-pressure cells often result in strong onshore winds, and these can whip up the sea surface and create big waves which can potentially run further inland, especially when the sea surface is raised.</p>
<p>Third, the coincidence of the storm with the period of high tide (a monthly event) and equinoctial high-high tide (a seasonal event). It is this combination that is the cause here, not these individual factors in isolation.</p>
<h2>What is a storm surge?</h2>
<p>This is where the level of the sea surface near the coast is temporarily raised up and results in flooding along that coastal stretch. Storm surges are caused by a low pressure (cyclone) weather system approaching the coastline from the ocean. Low pressure causes the sea surface to bulge upwards below the centre or eye of the cyclone, and the magnitude of this disturbance is related to the severity of the low pressure system – the deeper the low pressure cell, the higher the elevation of the sea surface. This is usually on the order of tens of centimetres to one metre or so. </p>
<p>As the cyclone approaches land, the water surface along the coast rises.</p>
<h2>What is a spring tide?</h2>
<p>Despite their name, <a href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/springtide.html">spring tides</a> are regular occurrences throughout the year. They take place when the sun, Earth and moon are in alignment, and this happens once every (lunar) month. In addition, there are also times of the year, around the <a href="https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/equinox/">equinoxes</a>, where spring tides are higher than average. </p>
<p>We are very near the spring (vernal) equinox in the southern hemisphere (which is on or about 22 September). This is a period when the sun is aligned overhead of Earth’s equator and so exerts a bigger tidal force on the oceans. This may have been a contributing factor to the higher water levels around the coast.</p>
<h2>Were people sufficiently warned?</h2>
<p>Tidal patterns are highly predictable and this data is widely available for ports or harbours along the coast. In this case, the South African Weather Service issued <a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/saturdays-weather-damaging-winds-waves-and-a-storm-surge-warning-for-the-coast-20230915">a warning</a>. This information is particularly useful for boaters, fishermen and other coastal users. Weather patterns are also fairly predictable, which is what weather forecasting is all about, so we know when a big storm may be approaching. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-science-of-weather-forecasting-what-it-takes-and-why-its-so-hard-to-get-right-175740">The science of weather forecasting: what it takes and why it’s so hard to get right</a>
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<p>However, the net result of all of these factors in combination is less predictable: although low-lying coastal areas are vulnerable to flooding, forecasters may not know exactly when or how high.</p>
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<p>The other issue here is not just areas being covered by water but also the speed at which the water waves are moving, which is a factor in their destructiveness. </p>
<h2>What kind of emergency measures could be put in place?</h2>
<p>Local communities need to be warned more clearly and effectively if there is a threat of a storm surge and of coastal flooding. People and assets (like cars, anything that is moveable) should be moved from the area or kept inside. People tend to want to go to the sea to watch the waves but this puts them at more risk. Roads should be closed off where possible to keep people safe and away from the area. Floodwater management through using sandbags and similar actions should be undertaken.</p>
<p>Exactly the same measures used in places like <a href="https://www.floridadisaster.org/planprepare/">Florida in the US</a> for reducing hurricane risk should be used in South Africa, such as boarding up windows, keeping assets indoors, evacuating people from high risk areas, and moving furniture in houses to the first floor to reduce flood impacts.</p>
<p>Storm surges – and <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/chapter-4-sea-level-rise-and-implications-for-low-lying-islands-coasts-and-communities/">sea levels rising in future</a> – are not going to go away so we need to be prepared for them.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213877/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jasper Knight does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Local communities need to be warned more clearly and effectively if there is a threat of a storm surge and of coastal flooding.Jasper Knight, Professor of Physical Geography, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1658722021-08-16T19:52:37Z2021-08-16T19:52:37ZForget massive seawalls, coastal wetlands offer the best storm protection money can buy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/416266/original/file-20210816-13-1mc83jx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">shutterstock</span> </figcaption></figure><p>Coastal communities around the world are facing increasing threats from tropical cyclones. Climate change is causing rising sea levels and bigger, more frequent storms. </p>
<p>Many coastal communities are pondering what to do. Should they build massive seawalls in a bid to protect existing infrastructure? Do they give up on their current coastal locations and retreat inland? Or is there another way?</p>
<p>In the US, the US Army Corps of Engineers has proposed building a 20-foot high <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/02/us/miami-fl-seawall-hurricanes.html?searchResultPosition=4">giant seawall</a> to protect Miami, the third most populous metropolis on the US east coast. The US$6 billion proposal is tentative and at least five years off, but sure to be among many proposals in the coming years to protect coastal communities from storms.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-20-foot-sea-wall-wont-save-miami-how-living-structures-can-help-protect-the-coast-and-keep-the-paradise-vibe-165076">A 20-foot sea wall won’t save Miami – how living structures can help protect the coast and keep the paradise vibe</a>
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<p>But seawalls are expensive to build, require constant maintenance and provide limited protection. </p>
<p>Consider China, which already has a huge number of seawalls built for storm protection. A <a href="http://www.robertcostanza.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/2019_J_Liu-et-al.-China-storm-protection-EcoServ.pdf">2019 study</a> analysed the impact of 127 storms on China between 1989 and 2016. </p>
<p>Coastal wetlands were far more cost effective in preventing storm damages. They also provided many other ecosystem services that seawalls do not.</p>
<h2>How wetlands reduce storm effects</h2>
<p>Coastal wetlands reduce the damaging effects of tropical cyclones on coastal communities by absorbing storm energy in ways that neither solid land nor open water can. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.robertcostanza.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/2008_J_Costanza_HurricaneProtection.pdf">mechanisms involved</a> include decreasing the area of open water (fetch) for wind to form waves, increasing drag on water motion and hence the amplitude of a storm surge, reducing direct wind effects on the water surface, and directly absorbing wave energy.</p>
<p>Wetland vegetation contributes by decreasing surges and waves and maintaining shallow water depths that have the same effect. Wetlands also reduce flood damages by absorbing flood waters caused by rain and moderating their effects on built-up areas.</p>
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<img alt="Coastal wetlands can absorb storm energy in ways neither solid land nor open water can." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/416272/original/file-20210816-6624-12mrdl5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/416272/original/file-20210816-6624-12mrdl5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416272/original/file-20210816-6624-12mrdl5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416272/original/file-20210816-6624-12mrdl5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416272/original/file-20210816-6624-12mrdl5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416272/original/file-20210816-6624-12mrdl5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416272/original/file-20210816-6624-12mrdl5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Coastal wetlands can absorb storm energy in ways neither solid land nor open water can.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<p>In 2008 I and colleagues estimated coastal wetlands in the US provided storm protection services worth US$23 billion a year.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378021001072">Our new study</a> estimates the global value of coastal wetlands to storm protection services is US$450 billion a year (calculated at 2015 value) with 4,600 lives saved annually. </p>
<p>To make this calculation, we used the records of more than 1,000 tropical cyclones since 1902 that caused property damage and/or human casualties in 71 countries. Our study took advantage of improved storm tracking, better global land-use mapping and damage-assessment databases, along with improved computational capabilities to model the relationships between coastal wetlands and avoided damages and deaths from tropical cyclones.</p>
<p>The 40 million hectares of coastal wetlands in storm-prone areas provided an average of US$11,000 per hectare a year in avoided storm damages.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/rising-seas-allow-coastal-wetlands-to-store-more-carbon-113020">Rising seas allow coastal wetlands to store more carbon</a>
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<h2>Pacific nations benefit most</h2>
<p>The degree to which coastal wetlands provide storm protection varies between countries (and within countries). Key factors are storm probability, amount of built infrastructure in storm-prone areas, if wetlands are in storm-prone areas, and coastal conditions. </p>
<p>The top five countries in terms of annual avoided damages (all in 2015 US dollar values) are the United States (US$200 billion), China (US$157 billion), the Philippines (US$47 billion), Japan (US$24 billion) and Mexico (US$15 billion). </p>
<p>In terms of lives saved annually, the top five are: China (1,309); the Philippines (976); the United States (469)l India (414); and Bangladesh (360).</p>
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<img alt="Floodwaters inundate Manila suburbs in November 2020 following Typhoon Vamco." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/416276/original/file-20210816-6629-v6024o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/416276/original/file-20210816-6629-v6024o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416276/original/file-20210816-6629-v6024o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416276/original/file-20210816-6629-v6024o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416276/original/file-20210816-6629-v6024o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416276/original/file-20210816-6629-v6024o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416276/original/file-20210816-6629-v6024o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Floodwaters inundate Manila suburbs in November 2020 following Typhoon Vamco.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ace Morandante/Malacanang Presidential Photographers Division/AP</span></span>
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<h2>Other ecosystem services</h2>
<p>Coastal wetlands also provide other valuable ecosystem services. They provide nursery habitat for many commercially important marine species, recreational opportunities, carbon sequestration, management of sediment and nutrient run-off, and many other valuable services. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0959378014000685">2014</a> I and colleagues estimated the value of other ecosystem services provided by wetlands (over and above storm protection) at about $US 135,000 a hectare a year.</p>
<p>But land-use changes, including the loss of coastal wetlands, has been eroding both services. Since 1900 the world has <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/mf/mf14173">lost up to 70%</a> of its wetlands (Davidson, 2014). </p>
<p>Preserving and restoring coastal wetlands is a very cost-effective strategy for society, and can significantly <a href="http://www.idakub.com/academics/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/2017_J_Kubiszewski_ESscenarios.pdf">increase well-being</a> for humans and the rest of nature.</p>
<p>With the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones and other extreme weather events projected to further increase, the value of coastal wetlands will increase in the future. This justifies investing much more in their conservation and restoration.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/165872/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Costanza does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As weather becomes more extreme, the value of coastal wetlands is increasing.Robert Costanza, Professor and VC's Chair, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1638072021-07-09T03:10:44Z2021-07-09T03:10:44ZWith seas rising and storms surging, who will pay for New Zealand’s most vulnerable coastal properties?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/410494/original/file-20210708-9947-rmjyo7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3594%2C2376&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">GettyImages</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The release of the <a href="https://www.searise.nz/">NZ SeaRise</a> project’s sobering data about projected sea level rise around New Zealand is yet <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/466262/sea-levels-rising-twice-as-fast-as-thought-in-new-zealand">another reminder</a> that the water is now lapping close to a lot of New Zealand’s front doors. The ominous question is: who will pay when it crosses the threshold?</p>
<p>But that’s not a question worrying insurance companies. They’ve made their position clear — <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/climate-news/123560377/homes-to-start-losing-access-to-insurance-within-15-years---report">they won’t be paying for it</a>.</p>
<p>Insurance is based on uncertainty and is reevaluated annually. When the chance of damage rises beyond what an insurance company is prepared to bear, it withdraws.</p>
<p>This leaves at-risk homeowners with no insurance, either private or through the state’s <a href="https://www.eqc.govt.nz/about-eqc">Earthquake Commission</a>. In the meantime, homeowners will likely continue to pay rising premiums, possibly unaware of the tenuous nature of their coverage.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://deepsouthchallenge.co.nz/resource/insurance-retreat-december-2020-final-report/">latest research</a> tells us coastal properties will start to lose insurance cover within the next ten years, if not sooner. Technically, if your property has a 1% chance of coastal damage with today’s sea level, you’ll likely lose all private insurance once the chance rises to 5% — anticipated to be <a href="https://deepsouthchallenge.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Insurance-Retreat-December-2020-Final-Report.pdf">less than 25 years away</a>.</p>
<p>That means potentially more than 30,000 residential properties – currently valued at more than NZ$17 billion – are expected to be uninsurable within the next few decades.</p>
<p>Furthermore, these timelines don’t account for the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2727-5">latest predictions</a> of polar ice sheet <a href="https://www.stockholmresilience.org/research/research-news/2021-06-04-a-better-understanding-of-how-tipping-points-work.html">tipping points</a>: major sea-level rise is on its way.</p>
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<h2>Who will pay?</h2>
<p>Domestic and international precedent suggests the central government might compensate some property owners. But there’s a significant caveat: the New Zealand government has so far followed a UK model for coastal property compensation. Called “<a href="https://www.floodre.co.uk/">Flood Re</a>”, this only covers UK homes built before 2009.</p>
<p>Minister for Climate Change <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/2018775996/sea-level-rise-insurance-and-retreat-james-shaw">James Shaw has said</a> the challenge for New Zealand lies in defining where the line falls. He also said developers of coastal properties today are doing so “with their eyes open”.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/when-climate-change-and-other-emergencies-threaten-where-we-live-how-will-we-manage-our-retreat-156035">When climate change and other emergencies threaten where we live, how will we manage our retreat?</a>
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<p>This is significant and suggests the government might be positioning itself to abandon more recent coastal developments.</p>
<p>It’s hard to argue with such a policy. Can we expect taxpayers and the government to pay such a massive bill? More pointedly, should the government be compensating for decisions made now when local councils should at least be aware of the risks?</p>
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<h2>We’re still building by the coast</h2>
<p>While the total rateable value of exposed residential property is approximately $17 billion, $2.6 billion of that was built after 2009, according to our analysis. </p>
<p>Even today, local councils are continuing to grant consent for development in these immediately exposed places. The Christchurch City Council – already with one of the highest exposures to coastal hazards – has just announced a <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/125052419/developer-to-build-65-new-homes-on-old-central-new-brighton-school-site">65-home development in New Brighton</a>, an area current modelling suggests is prone to coastal flooding.</p>
<p>At the same time, <a href="https://environment.govt.nz/publications/coastal-hazards-and-climate-change-guidance-for-local-government/">advice from the Ministry for the Environment</a> suggests councils should be taking a risk-informed approach to land-use planning, and asks whether councils or investors can afford to write off these investments in future.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/managed-retreat-done-right-can-reinvent-cities-so-theyre-better-for-everyone-and-avoid-harm-from-flooding-heat-and-fires-163052">'Managed retreat' done right can reinvent cities so they're better for everyone – and avoid harm from flooding, heat and fires</a>
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<p>This guidance is not mandatory, however, and many councils do not have the resources or expertise to take a risk-based approach. Aside from the financial threat, there are the associated physical upheavals and mental health issues facing residents.</p>
<p>The new <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300069352/biggest-rma-shakeup-in-a-generation-how-labours-planning-laws-will-work">Strategic Planning Act</a> (one of the three pieces of legislation replacing the old Resource Management Act) should put an end to further development in at-risk places. But this still leaves the complex financial and ethical question of what happens to existing property owners.</p>
<p>Simply to say these residents knew the risks when they developed and should therefore be left on their own is not an acceptable long-term, compassionate strategy. Other solutions will be needed.</p>
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<h2>Government guidance is vital</h2>
<p>We need to be wary, however, of local communities demanding sea walls or other protections to allow them to remain. Recent <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-018-0137-6">research</a> indicates such structural defences can inadvertently raise long-term risk and exposure.</p>
<p>A more sustainable approach proposed in Hawkes Bay involves charging ratepayers $30 a year for a coastal defence or <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/372/6548/1287">managed retreat fund</a>. Initially lauded as the country’s most sophisticated engagement process and strategy, it has since stalled due to councils being unable to agree which <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/climate-news/123080198/retired-judge-or-qc-called-in-to-resolve-councils-failure-to-resolve-rate-collection-for-coastal-erosion-fund">rates bill it should be on</a>.</p>
<p>Another solution might be the creation of a government-managed coastal bond or insurance scheme. This would ensure the premiums paid by coastal residents stayed in the local economy to support them. Naturally, such a scheme should include conditions that limit or prevent development in risk zones.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/rising-insurance-costs-may-convince-americans-that-climate-change-risks-are-real-105192">Rising insurance costs may convince Americans that climate change risks are real</a>
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<p>Alternatively, New Zealand could adopt a framework for <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/2018781916/climate-hazard-property-from-freehold-to-leasehold">converting exposed property from freehold to leasehold</a>, which would put time limits on occupying vulnerable properties. </p>
<p>The related idea of a “<a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/03/21/978416929/california-has-a-new-idea-for-homes-at-risk-from-rising-seas-buy-rent-retreat">revolving loan program</a>” is being discussed in California. Essentially a creative buyout scheme, this would involve councils or communities buying vulnerable properties and renting them out to pay off the loan until the property is no longer safe.</p>
<p>Regardless, storms like those witnessed in Wellington should remind us of the need for clear guidance and support at government level. The proposed Climate Change Adaptation (or Managed Retreat) Act will hopefully provide this guidance, but this is <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300344234/david-parker-unveils-new-planning-law-which-will-squeeze-100-plans-into-just-14">possibly three years away</a> at best. With coastal development still happening, it’s clear we need it sooner.</p>
<p>In the meantime, those who are aware of the risks will be tempted to sell their vulnerable property to those who aren’t. That is no solution. New Zealand will still have vulnerable citizens in vulnerable places — regardless of whether or not they bought with their eyes open.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/163807/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tom Logan receives funding from the New Zealand MBIE-funded Resilience to Nature's Challenge NSC. He is co-director of the risk consulting firm Urban Intelligence.</span></em></p>With climate change making more than 30,000 coastal properties potentially uninsurable within the next 25 years, government-led solutions should be fast-tracked.Tom Logan, Lecturer of Civil Systems Engineering, University of CanterburyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1015522018-08-21T20:58:02Z2018-08-21T20:58:02ZBuilding housing on flood plains another sign of growing inequality<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232700/original/file-20180820-30590-1s7d1ib.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A woman gets back into her flooded car on the Toronto Indy course on Lakeshore Boulevard in Toronto on July 8, 2013. Housing developers are building housing on known flood plains in cities around the world.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Frank Gunn</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Many cities around the world face a lack of affordable housing in and around expensive central business districts. <a href="https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/real-estate/video/waterfront-toronto-races-to-add-40-000-affordable-homes%7E1094087">Employers want cheaper</a> <a href="http://www.waterfrontforall.ca/wfa_letter_on_portlands_planning">labourers, who need more affordable housing in accordance with their lower salaries, to live nearby</a>. So <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/toronto/google-sidewalk-toronto-waterfront/article36612387/">developers are invited to build on flood plains</a>, without consequences. And often there is no public involvement in the decision.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jan/27/homes-and-companies-should-be-built-on-flood-plains-despite-risks-says-panel">Flood plains are easy to build on because they are flat and, in cities, they tend to be close to amenities</a>. Yet all parties involved in housing know that cities are facing <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01035.x">more rainfall</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jan/27/homes-and-companies-should-be-built-on-flood-plains-despite-risks-says-panel">flooding due to climate change</a>. Cities are now starting to prepare for <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/miami-floods-sea-level-rise-solutions-2018-4">catastrophic floods.</a> and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800906003041">research has estimated flooding losses in the United States to be increasing dramatically</a>. </p>
<p>Irresponsible and autocratic choices made by elites, at Waterfront Toronto for example, leave unsuspecting, <a href="https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/real-estate/video/waterfront-toronto-races-to-add-40-000-affordable-homes%7E1094087">lower-paid professionals</a> in <a href="https://urbanomnibus.net/2014/10/the-storm-that-will-be-protecting-public-housing-in-the-new-100-year-floodplain/">dangerous circumstances</a> with <a href="https://theconversation.com/after-the-flood-finding-ways-to-insure-the-uninsurable-without-breaking-the-bank-23110">rising insurance costs</a> and potentially bad investments. That’s because, in the future, flood insurance may become prohibitively expensive or insurers may decide not to cover such high-risk properties, making them difficult to sell.</p>
<h2>Flood risks worldwide</h2>
<p>Difficult housing choices are reflective of a broader <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/lawrence-summers-its-time-to-balance-the-power-between-workers-and-employers/2017/09/03/b1c9714e-901e-11e7-8df5-c2e5cf46c1e2_story.html?utm_term=.16519767438f">loss of worker power and associated income inequality</a>. Research shows that densely populated areas <a href="https://www.prb.org/disaster-risk/">are more vulnerable to disasters</a> — the same disaster affects more people in dense environments. And where there is income inequality, there are more victims of natural catastrophes.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/storms-hit-poorer-people-harder-from-superstorm-sandy-to-hurricane-maria-87658">Storms hit poorer people harder, from Superstorm Sandy to Hurricane Maria</a>
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<p>Cities dominated by appointed, un-elected officials, such as the <a href="https://waterfrontoronto.ca/nbe/portal/waterfront/Home/waterfronthome/about-us/who-we-are/board%20of%20directors/!ut/p/a0/04_Sj9CPykssy0xPLMnMz0vMAfGjzOL9DF1cDQ39DbwNXF2MDBydfSyc_DxDjIyCDPULsh0VAaApXSE!/pw/Z7_N1DE11O0K0ED20ACL8BNIT2Q46/ren/p=CTX=QCPwaterfront_content_libraryQCPWaterfrontQCAHomeQCPabout-usQCPwhoQCAweQCAareQCPboardQCAofQCAdirectors/p=WCM_PI=1/p=ns_Z7_N1DE11O0K0ED20ACL8BNIT2QFB46_WCM_Page.1cfc636a-d084-4f3d-bd2d-404abce32ee0=5/=/">board members of Waterfront Toronto</a>, are helping to generate <a href="https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/9af7/ebd0b4debeb334e2cd97dd1b67ebb8ff2916.pdf">this inequality.</a></p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232714/original/file-20180820-30590-oozh20.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232714/original/file-20180820-30590-oozh20.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=837&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232714/original/file-20180820-30590-oozh20.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=837&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232714/original/file-20180820-30590-oozh20.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=837&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232714/original/file-20180820-30590-oozh20.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1052&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232714/original/file-20180820-30590-oozh20.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1052&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232714/original/file-20180820-30590-oozh20.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1052&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">In this August 2006 photo, two New Orleans women grieve for a relative who died in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Alex Brandon)</span></span>
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<p>In the U.K., where there’s an ongoing housing crisis, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jan/27/homes-and-companies-should-be-built-on-flood-plains-despite-risks-says-panel">government has approved building on flood plains as long as the new homeowners are made aware of the risks in advance</a>. At least the British are having an honest conversation about it. <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/city_hall/2018/07/31/sidewalk-labs-deal-unlocks-40-million-us-for-quayside-high-tech-district.html">In Toronto, we are not</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/concentrated-poverty-in-new-orleans-and-other-american-cities/">New Orleans has long relegated its poorer populations to lower elevations by the Mississippi River</a>, where floods and subsequent disease have devastated the city. The terrible treatment of Hurricane Katrina’s victims in New Orleans is a continuation of an enduring history of racism.</p>
<p>Research also describes how in the <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2007.00884.x">flood plains of Bangladesh, income inequality</a> is related to a higher risk of flooding and lower preparedness to deal with floods. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/9083-South-China-faces-worst-floods-in-decades">South China</a>, <a href="https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/992632/typhoon-ampil-shanghai-latest-news-flights-cancelled-shanghai-tower-disney-resort-china">increasing rainfall</a> has left millions of the poor living in such dangerous low-lying areas that China’s president has called in the army. </p>
<h2>Public space can be climate-adaptive</h2>
<p>Today, most North American coastal cities are in danger of climate-related sea level elevations and storm surges. <a href="http://thiseastside.com/new-york-city-flooding/">Hurricane Sandy caught New York’s elite off guard</a> because they became victims too. It didn’t matter whether you were <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com/hugh-hogan/hurricane-sandy-recovery_b_2067605.html">in the Upper East Side or in Harlem</a>. </p>
<p>In wealthy south Florida, saltwater rises not only directly from the sea, but also up through <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/miami-floods-sea-level-rise-solutions-2018-4">porous limestone</a>, so Miami cannot use the same climate adaptation approaches as in some other cities, like adding green space. <a href="https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/miami-beach/article129284119.html">Miami is working to add pumps and other infrastructure instead.</a></p>
<p>Toronto could turn its remaining waterfront space into parkland, instead of housing developments, as a protective barrier.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/toronto-needs-more-beauty-in-its-waterfront-designs-100871">Toronto needs more beauty in its waterfront designs</a>
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<p><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/new-york-city-flooding-manhattan-coastal-barriers-2018-4">New York City is going to build a wall</a> around the lower part of Manhattan, and add a park. The Dutch are using public space to absorb floodwater. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/miami-floods-sea-level-rise-solutions-2018-4">New Orleans is building parks</a> to double as reservoirs for floodwaters, on the advice of the Dutch. </p>
<h2>Toronto’s recent floods a wakeup call</h2>
<p>Toronto has had a few waterfront floods over the years, including <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/toronto-waterfront-repair-budget-shortfalls-1.4748644">this year</a> and last, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/toronto-flood-repair-delay-1.4479580">damaging the Toronto Islands in 2017</a>. The city faced <a href="https://www.blogto.com/city/2018/06/toronto-wind-and-rain-storm-wreaks-havoc-toronto/">several storms in 2018</a> with violent winds and flooding downtown. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/16/realestate/muskoka-the-malibu-of-the-north.html">Some wealthy Torontonians leave the city for private lakefront properties in cottage country</a>, but others live within limited space affected by the aftermath of catastrophes.
<a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/toronto-flood-repair-delay-1.4479580">The Toronto Islands recovery, for example, is still ongoing and has not yet been fully paid for</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232694/original/file-20180820-30581-zn4nz7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232694/original/file-20180820-30581-zn4nz7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232694/original/file-20180820-30581-zn4nz7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232694/original/file-20180820-30581-zn4nz7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232694/original/file-20180820-30581-zn4nz7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232694/original/file-20180820-30581-zn4nz7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232694/original/file-20180820-30581-zn4nz7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Toronto’s east-end beaches flooded badly in 2017 amid a rainy spring. Housing developers are nonetheless building housing on known flood plains, in Toronto and around the world.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chris Young</span></span>
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<p>Meanwhile, new Toronto lakefront condominium developments <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/city_hall/2018/07/31/sidewalk-labs-deal-unlocks-40-million-us-for-quayside-high-tech-district.html">are proceeding</a> in the Quayside and Portlands neighbourhoods, near the Islands, on <a href="https://nationalpost.com/posted-toronto/brown-fields">flood plains historically contaminated by heavy metals, oil and coal</a>. <a href="https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/real-estate/video/waterfront-toronto-races-to-add-40-000-affordable-homes%7E1094087">“Workforce housing”</a> is a required part of the plan. </p>
<p>Will Flessig, former Waterfront Toronto CEO, says that middle-income professionals are expected to settle in the waterfront condominiums so that they can be closer to where they work.</p>
<p>But no one in Toronto is talking about the flood plains, <a href="https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/breaking-ground-on-1-25b-flood-protection-project-at-toronto-s-port-lands-1.3755189">since elected officials apparently consider the issue resolved</a>. Based on a plan developed in 2007, the <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/toronto/toronto-waterfront-to-undergo-1185-billion-flood-protection-makeover/article35488214/">federal and provincial governments are investing $1.185 billion to reconstruct the mouth of the Don River</a> so that the water safely flows into Lake Ontario.</p>
<p>However, the waterfront area still remains a flood plain, and is still affected by storm surges associated with climate change.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232945/original/file-20180821-149496-1435h5o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232945/original/file-20180821-149496-1435h5o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232945/original/file-20180821-149496-1435h5o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232945/original/file-20180821-149496-1435h5o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232945/original/file-20180821-149496-1435h5o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232945/original/file-20180821-149496-1435h5o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232945/original/file-20180821-149496-1435h5o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Klever Freire, left, and Gabriel Otrin pose for a photograph in the building where they were trapped in a rapidly flooding elevator during a heavy rainstorm in Toronto in August 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Christopher Katsarov</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Building on flood plains has serious consequences, including future <a href="https://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/water-is-the-new-fire-national-strategy-needed-for-flooding-says-insurance-expert">uninsurable</a> buildings as insurance companies anticipate they won’t be able to afford the payouts. A single major flood causes a great deal of damage and requires insurance companies to pay all at once. With a higher frequency of catastrophic floods and the corresponding required payouts, the pool of insurance premiums collected to cover the losses dries up, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01035.x">and insurance companies face bankruptcy.</a></p>
<p>Before that happens and buildings are left derelict, people and property are endangered. We recently saw <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/4375978/toronto-flooding-rescue-elevator/">life-threatening flooding of buildings</a> in Toronto, and there are limited rescue personnel <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/heavy-showers-1.4777111">to address all of the issues at the same time when mass floods happen</a>. </p>
<p>Simultaneously, damage to personal property can be overwhelming — for example, to cars and contents within condominium lockers in underground parking garages. In Toronto, we have also seen <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2018/08/08/lucky-passengers-escape-flooded-streetcar.html">streetcars submerged in water</a> recently with people trapped inside. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232715/original/file-20180820-30578-rvykn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232715/original/file-20180820-30578-rvykn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232715/original/file-20180820-30578-rvykn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232715/original/file-20180820-30578-rvykn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232715/original/file-20180820-30578-rvykn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232715/original/file-20180820-30578-rvykn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232715/original/file-20180820-30578-rvykn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Flooding stops a streetcar on King St. W. in Toronto on Aug. 7, 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Shlomi Amiga</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Fixing the damage therefore adds costs to public transit. Water quality and disease concerns are also heightened as storm <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2018/08/09/flash-flooding-has-created-sickening-mess-in-toronto-harbour-water-monitoring-group-says.html">sewage systems cannot handle increasing rainfall volumes</a>. Over the longer term, <a href="https://rimkus.com/news/structural-damage-due-to-floods">repeated flooding also weakens building foundations</a>.</p>
<h2>Hard to manage water levels</h2>
<p>On a broader scale in the Great Lakes region, the ability <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378001000267">to adapt to changing</a> conditions is reduced. That’s because the ability of water officials to manage water levels is much more difficult when condominiums and other housing is built on flood plains. </p>
<p>For example, water flows are somewhat controlled in the <a href="https://www.nationalobserver.com/2018/03/14/news/water-flowing-out-lake-ontario-hit-record-high-last-month">Lake Ontario and St. Lawrence River</a> watersheds through an international agreement called Plan 2014. If buildings are in the path of water flow, this complicates and limits the range of adjustment options. </p>
<p>We know now what we’re confronting. Let’s learn from past mistakes. In the best interests of homeowners, the public and climate adaptation, what’s left of Toronto’s waterfront should be public parks, not condominiums billed as “workforce housing.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/101552/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Deborah de Lange is affiliated with the Urban Land Institute. </span></em></p>Cities around the world, including Toronto, are building housing on flood plains knowing the risks in the era of climate change. Here’s why that will contribute to growing inequality in our cities.Deborah de Lange, Associate professor, Toronto Metropolitan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.