tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/susan-lamb-49264/articlesSusan Lamb – The Conversation2018-07-22T20:10:22Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/997572018-07-22T20:10:22Z2018-07-22T20:10:22ZByelection guide: what’s at stake on Super Saturday<p><em>Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten have been criss-crossing the country for weeks to spruik their parties’ candidates in Saturday’s all-important byelections – a key test for both the Liberals and Labor ahead of the next federal election.</em></p>
<p><em>Here’s what you need to know about the five electorates up for grabs and, with a federal election likely in the first half of 2019, what’s at stake for Turnbull and Shorten.</em></p>
<hr>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-287" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/287/78461d5072b825744d7c283b9901731f603a5d45/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<hr>
<h2>Longman</h2>
<p><em>Chris Salisbury, Research Associate, University of Queensland</em></p>
<p>Longman’s very marginal status, held by Labor’s Susan Lamb by a slim 0.8% prior to her <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-09/high-court-katy-gallagher-citizenship-political-reax/9742130">High Court-enforced resignation</a>, makes this race the most tightly contested on Saturday.</p>
<p>Seasoned observers <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/longman-by-election-2018/">expect this</a> to go the way of most byelection contests – largely distanced from broader federal concerns. Local issues are at play, dominated by arguments over <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/queensland-government/caboolture-hospital-is-ground-zero-for-longman-byelection/news-story/420ba3a1200bc99475b309b01c9c2f12">funding for the Caboolture hospital</a> in the electorate north of Brisbane, as well as for local education and employment support services.</p>
<p>Yet, the race is also being touted by some as a judgement on the major parties’ signature economic policies, and significantly on the performances of <a href="http://insidestory.org.au/wholl-get-the-bloody-nose-in-longman/">both party leaders</a>. Labor has <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/treasury/well-make-company-tax-avote-winner-says-labor/news-story/d21e8873d4ab775ba2d70a8938467e8c">campaigned hard</a> on the merits of the Coalition’s proposed company tax cuts. The Liberals, meanwhile, have <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/treasury/marginals-pain-for-labor-as-tax-grab-hits-thousands-of-voters-in-key-electorates/news-story/f4debe1869d3a28c61819eb63b5c5e9b">fanned fears</a> among retirees about Labor’s proposed investment savings changes.</p>
<p>Longman is a typical marginal seat in the outer suburban fringe, home to what a dozen years ago would have been called <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/federal-election-2016-what-happened-to-john-howards-battlers-20160705-gpywp2.html">“Howard’s battlers”</a>. The electorate provides a platform for the major parties to road-test policy differentiation and campaign messages on <a href="https://www.themonthly.com.au/today/paddy-manning/2018/18/2018/1526621735/pub-test-longman-election">“average voters”</a> ahead of the next federal election.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-super-saturday-is-not-so-super-in-labors-eyes-97210">Grattan on Friday: 'Super Saturday' is not so super in Labor's eyes</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>It’s also fertile ground for the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-24/trust-in-australian-political-system-at-lowest-level/7539706">growing distrust</a> of mainstream politics. One Nation’s Pauline Hanson <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/15/its-bad-here-how-one-nation-is-spooking-major-parties-in-longman">has been prominent in the electorate</a>, attempting to capitalise on negative voter sentiment toward the major parties. Her party even enlisted former Labor leader Mark Latham’s support, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-09/mark-latham-joins-one-nation-longman-campaign-robocall/9959222">voicing robocalls</a> to local residents attacking Shorten.</p>
<p>Lamb is attempting to be re-elected to the seat she <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-08/election-2016-wyatt-roy-concedes-defeat-in-longman/7581984">won unexpectedly</a> from the LNP’s Wyatt Roy in 2016. She benefits from recognition as the incumbent and has the strong backing of her party leader. Shorten <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/shorten-launches-lamb-s-longman-campaign-20180624-p4zneh.html">made a beeline</a> for Longman ahead of the announcement of the byelection date to spruik his candidate.</p>
<p>LNP’s Trevor Ruthenburg also enjoys recognition of sorts as a previous state MP for nearby Kallangur. However, he might have spurned some conservative Longman voters with fresh revelations of an <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/federal/lnp-longman-candidate-trevor-ruthenberg-says-war-medal-claim-was-error-20180717-p4zrv4.html">incorrectly claimed military service medal</a> in his Queensland parliament biography.</p>
<p>Among the minor party candidates, One Nation’s Matthew Stephen will also need to overcome questions <a href="https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/the-aussie-electorate-that-faces-a-dreaded-choice/news-story/56dc14df2d2d423da6168cb05c186bae">regarding his business dealings</a> to build on his party’s 9.4% primary vote in the 2016 election. </p>
<p>Labor’s concerted campaigning has Lamb a slight favourite to be returned. However, a Coalition win might convince Turnbull to call an early election. This then raises the question: could a poor result for Labor <a href="http://insidestory.org.au/the-longman-and-shorten-of-it/">put enough pressure on Shorten</a> to prompt the party to change leaders to better combat the PM’s standing?</p>
<hr>
<h2>Braddon</h2>
<p><em>Michael Lester, PhD candidate, University of Tasmania</em></p>
<p>For an election that won’t change the status quo in parliament, the Braddon byelection is getting a great deal of attention.</p>
<p>Both <a href="https://www.malcolmturnbull.com.au/media/speech-at-the-braddon-by-election-campaign-launch">Turnbull</a> and <a href="https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_5790318629001">Shorten</a> have made multiple visits to campaign for their candidates, with support also coming from of a host of their cabinet and shadow cabinet colleagues.</p>
<p>Braddon is a <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/braddon-by-election-2018/">notoriously fickle electorate</a>, having changed hands four times since 1996, and the margins are always tight. This election is no different. All the polls indicate it is a close race. </p>
<p>In 2016, Labor’s Justine Keay <a href="https://www.themercury.com.au/news/tasmania/labors-justine-keay-in-awe-of-upset-win-in-braddon/news-story/611f65567b235692ca0d5d9a25e6d3e6?nk=41a68354e1d8b1672e879cc5977d2f89-1531971783">won the seat</a> with a 2.2% lead over then-sitting Liberal member Brett Whiteley. She was later <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-09/tas-seat-of-braddon-set-for-by-election/9742950">forced to resign</a> after her UK citizenship was revealed. Both candidates are standing again, but neither is considered to have strong personal followings. </p>
<p>Polls in the <a href="https://www.theadvocate.com.au/story/5513995/labor-gaining-in-braddon-by-election-race-poll-suggests/">first week of July</a> showed the gap between the parties has narrowed. This means the result will likely come down to the preferences of independents and minor parties, particularly the Greens’ Jarrod Edwards, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party candidate Brett Neal and independent Craig Garland. All three are likely to favour Labor.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/video-michelle-grattan-on-the-federal-governments-tax-package-the-abc-and-the-super-saturday-byelections-98770">VIDEO: Michelle Grattan on the federal government's tax package, the ABC and the 'Super Saturday' byelections</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The differences between the campaign styles and tactics of the two major parties are striking. </p>
<p>The Liberals have used incumbency at both the state and federal level to frame their campaign around their economic records and budget infrastructure spending, holding photo opportunities around <a href="https://www.theadvocate.com.au/story/5496857/disaster-proofing-latrobe/">a series of project announcements</a>.</p>
<p>Labor, meanwhile, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-05/braddon-fence-sitters-central-to-bill-shorten-momentum-battle/9942742">is using the campaign</a> to road-test a swag of policies and messages. Key among them are wage stagnation, the loss of penalty rates, the <a href="http://www.billshorten.com.au/braddon_campaign_launch_devonport_sunday_8_july_2018">“scourge of labour hire companies”</a>, the bad behaviour of banks and the Liberals’ support for corporate tax cuts. </p>
<p>Shorten took most by surprise by also promising an AU$25 million grant to support a <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/sport/afl/labor-commit-25m-to-help-establish-a-tasmanian-afl-team-20180707-p4zq4q.html">Tasmanian AFL team </a>at a time when the Aussie game is in crisis in one of its foundation states. However, Labor seems to be getting better traction with promises to restore funding for essential services like health care and education.</p>
<p>The real impact of the Braddon byelection is likely to be on the political future of the two party leaders, the timing of the next federal election and the choice of the policies they choose to run on.</p>
<hr>
<h2>Mayo</h2>
<p><em>Rob Manwaring, Senior Lecturer, Politics and Public Policy, Flinders University</em></p>
<p>The campaign in Mayo is symptomatic of a wider problem that has beset Liberals in South Australia – a failure to lock in so-called blue-ribbon safe seats. </p>
<p>Mayo is now a straight two-way fight between the incumbent Centre Alliance’s Rebekah Sharkie and Liberal Georgina Downer. Downer’s success or failure could well be a strong signifier of the strength of Malcolm Turnbull’s government.</p>
<p>Polling has Sharkie on track to hold onto the seat, despite her <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/independent-mp-rebekha-sharkie-resigns-from-parliament-over-dual-citizenship">citizenship problems</a> triggering the byelection. A <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/aap/article-5879021/Sharkie-romp-Mayo-election-poll.html">late-June Reachtel poll</a> had Sharkie leading Downer by 62% to 38% in two-candidate voting. </p>
<p>Sharkie’s surge in the polls is striking, given that a large part of her <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australian-federal-election-2016-jamie-briggs-concedes-seat-of-mayo-to-rebekha-sharkie-20160702-gpx4jv.html">win over then-Liberal Jamie Briggs</a> in 2013 seemed to rest on the personal unpopularity of Briggs.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-disillusioned-voters-find-it-easy-to-embrace-a-crossbencher-like-rebekha-sharkie-100272">Grattan on Friday: Disillusioned voters find it easy to embrace a crossbencher like Rebekha Sharkie</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Yet, as has been proven in state-level races in South Australia before, voters in notionally safe “non-Labor” seats are often reluctant to give up strong local independents. Despite its disappointing showing in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/liberals-win-south-australian-election-as-xenophon-crushed-while-labor-stuns-the-greens-in-batman-93355">recent state election</a>, the Xenophon team retains deep residual support in South Australia.</p>
<p>The Mayo campaign is an intriguing confluence of local and national issues. Sharkie is pushing hard on a range of local issues, and her support to have the Great Australian Bight <a href="http://www.rebekhasharkie.com.au/world_heritage_bid_for_the_bight">listed for World Heritage status</a> to safeguard it from oil drilling also targets a perceived weakness of Downer’s - environment issues. </p>
<p>Downer, seeking to secure her family dynasty, is playing to different strengths – especially her close network with the Liberal hierarchy. (She is the daughter of former foreign minister Alexander.) Since announcing her candidacy, Downer has had <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-02/turnbull-joins-downer-on-mayo-by-election-campaign-trail/9827836">notable visits from Turnbull</a> and others. She boasts influence unavailable to her rivals, evidenced by her securing of federal funding for a new aquatic centre in Mount Barker. </p>
<p>Strikingly, immigration has become a new issue in the campaign. <a href="https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/mayo-candidate-georgina-downer-criticises-rebekha-sharkie-over-asylum-seeker-policy/news-story/88f32670796598791d68f65a1e46554f">Downer’s comments about immigration</a> may stoke local fears that the Inverbrackie site will be re-opened for mainland asylum seeker detentions. </p>
<hr>
<h2>Perth and Fremantle</h2>
<p><em>Ian Cook, Senior Lecturer of Australian Politics, Murdoch University</em></p>
<p>Labor will win both races being contested in Western Australia in Saturday’s byelections. That’s not a brave prediction. The Liberals aren’t running candidates.</p>
<p>Some analysts believe it was the <a href="https://www.perthnow.com.au/opinion/joe-spagnolo/joe-spagnolo-liberals-wont-run-in-perth-but-cannot-hide-ng-b88840090z">wrong decision</a> by the Liberals, given that a minimal campaigning effort wouldn’t have cost that much and it’s unclear how voters will react when the Liberals do put up candidates in the federal election.</p>
<p>But the decision actually makes a lot of sense. Labor has held both seats – Perth and Fremantle – for much of their existence. (The electorates were created in 1901.) Labor even held on in Fremantle in the 1975 election, which was the last time it lost Perth.</p>
<p>On top of this, the WA Liberals <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-11/barnetts-reign-in-wa-over-as-labor-enjoys-huge-swing/8346296">had been swept from government</a> last year as a result of a 20% swing against them across the state. And there were no signs of the federal Liberals doing much to change anything.</p>
<p>So, while Perth’s <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/by-elections/fed-2018-06-perth.htm">3.3% margin</a> looks close, the Liberals chose not to run a candidate there. Likewise in Fremantle, which is even less competitive, with a <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/by-elections/fed-2018-06-fremantle.htm">margin of 7.5%</a>. The decision not only saves the Liberals money, it won’t expose their weak support in WA.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/liberal-rebel-dean-smith-to-fight-party-decision-not-to-contest-perth-byelection-96950">Liberal rebel Dean Smith to fight party decision not to contest Perth byelection</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Some Liberals may have regretted the move after the party won the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-24/no-simple-explanation-for-shock-darling-range-result/9903984">byelection for the state seat of Darling Range</a> last month, but <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/labors-byelection-strife-candidate-colleen-yates-quits-over-false-cv-claims/news-story/e0f1793f4b7ae93669f76b4f23e94164">Labor got a lot wrong</a> in that campaign.</p>
<p>The Liberals’ decision not to run in Perth and Fremantle has brought the Greens more into the spotlight. With no other seats to talk about and no major party competition to drown them out, the Greens should be able to do something meaningful in these byelections.</p>
<p>Perth and Fremantle are exactly the type of inner metropolitan seat the Greens should be favoured to win, but their candidates have never gained more than 18% of first-preference voting in previous contests in the electorates. And nothing looks likely to change this time around.</p>
<p>If Greens candidates can’t put themselves in a position to win Perth and Fremantle in these byelections and demonstrate they are to be a meaningful political force, then they likely never will.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/99757/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Chris Salisbury is a Research Associate with Queensland's TJ Ryan Foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian Cook, Michael Lester, and Rob Manwaring do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>On Saturday, five federal seats will have a byelection, with particular attention being paid to tight races in Longman and Braddon. And all have implications for the major parties and their leaders.Rob Manwaring, Senior Lecturer, Politics and Public Policy, Flinders UniversityChris Salisbury, Research Associate, The University of QueenslandIan Cook, Senior Lecturer of Australian Politics, Murdoch UniversityMichael Lester, PhD candidate, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/962672018-05-09T09:38:29Z2018-05-09T09:38:29ZDual citizenship debacle claims five more MPs – and sounds a stern warning for future parliamentarians<p>In one fell swoop, the <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/cases/cth/HCA/2018/17.html">High Court’s judgment</a> about the eligibility of Katy Gallagher as a Senator disposed of five members of Parliament.</p>
<p>Not only was Gallagher disqualified, but the consequence was that Susan Lamb, Justine Keay, Josh Wilson and Rebekha Sharkie had no legal ground left to stand on. They had to resign, <a href="https://theconversation.com/four-mps-resign-as-citizenship-crisis-causes-more-havoc-96341">and they did</a>. </p>
<p>In each case, although they had initiated the procedure to renounce their foreign citizenship before the nomination date at the last election, that procedure had not been completed in the United Kingdom and they were still formally British citizens on nomination day. That was enough to see them disqualified.</p>
<h2>A change in the law or a clarification?</h2>
<p>The ALP had <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/shortens-citizenship-guarantee-wrecked/news-story/8a2d60091cf23317d05d1619c6b4b21c">previously boasted</a> of its rigorous vetting of its candidates, and expressed certainty they were all validly elected.</p>
<p>What went wrong? Has the High Court changed its interpretation of the Constitution or has it been consistent, as the <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/high-court-rules-labor-s-katy-gallagher-ineligible-and-sets-up-four-likely-byelections-20180509-p4ze5f.html">Liberal Party claims</a>?</p>
<p>The answer is that the previous position, as set out by the High Court, was ambiguous and could legitimately have been interpreted in two different ways. What the High Court did was to clarify the law by removing the ambiguity. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-the-high-court-decision-on-katy-gallagher-is-about-and-why-it-matters-96214">Explainer: what the High Court decision on Katy Gallagher is about and why it matters</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>When the issue was first dealt with in the 1992 case of <em><a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/cases/cth/HCA/1992/60.html">Sykes v Cleary</a></em>, Chief Justice Mason and Justices Toohey and McHugh rejected a strict reading of section 44(i) of the Constitution on the ground that it would:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>result in the disqualification of Australian citizens on whom there was imposed involuntarily by operation of foreign law a continuing foreign nationality, notwithstanding that they had taken reasonable steps to renounce that foreign nationality.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>They considered that it would</p>
<blockquote>
<p>be wrong to interpret the constitutional provision in such a way as to disbar an Australian citizen who had taken all reasonable steps to divest himself or herself of any conflicting allegiance. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Their Honours pointed out that even at federation, Australia was a nation of migrants, and that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>it could scarcely have been intended to disqualify an Australian citizen for election to Parliament on account of his or her continuing to possess a foreign nationality, notwithstanding that he or she had taken reasonable steps to renounce that nationality.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The ambiguity was whether the “reasonable steps test”: (a) only applies where the person would otherwise be disbarred from parliament because he or she was unable to renounce the foreign citizenship by any reasonable means; or (b) applies to all categories of dual citizenship, including those that can readily be renounced by following a reasonable procedure. This would mean that a candidate need only take all the reasonable steps within his or her power to renounce the foreign nationality prior to the nomination date, even if the formal renunciation did not happen until after that date.</p>
<p>Either view about what the court meant could have been fairly taken, but on balance most scholars favoured interpretation (b) because their Honours went on to apply the test of “reasonable steps” to two candidates who had dual citizenship with countries that permitted renunciation. </p>
<p>It was therefore unsurprising that the ALP, in its legal advice to candidates, took interpretation (b), with the consequence that some of its candidates undertook the renunciation process before the nomination date, but not sufficiently early for the renunciation to be completed prior to nomination.</p>
<p>While this approach was legitimate, it was not the most cautious one, as it involved a risk of invalidity if the High Court later decided that (a) was the correct approach.</p>
<p>Doubts arose about this interpretation when the High Court handed down its judgment last year in relation to Barnaby Joyce and the other “citizenship seven” in the <em><a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/cases/cth/HCA/2017/45.html">Re Canavan</a></em> case.</p>
<p>There, when discussing the “reasonable steps test”, the High Court did so solely in the context of the “constitutional imperative” to avoid the “irremediable exclusion” of citizens from being capable of election to parliament.</p>
<p>This left lawyers wondering whether the reasonable steps test applied more broadly, and the court had simply not mentioned it in that context, or whether the Court was confining its application to circumstances where the foreign citizenship could not be renounced at all.</p>
<h2>What the High Court decided in the Katy Gallagher case</h2>
<p>We now have an answer – the court took interpretation (a) above. It held that the “reasonable steps test” only applies where it is impossible or not reasonably possible to renounce the foreign citizenship.</p>
<p>In such a case, the person must still take all reasonable steps within his or her power to renounce that citizenship (but not the “unreasonable” ones). Once this is done, the person can stand for Parliament even though the foreign citizenship continues. </p>
<p>But if the impediment is simply slow processing, or that renunciation is a matter of discretion, this is not enough to trigger the exception. The process of renunciation has to be completed in accordance with the law and procedures of the foreign country before the person nominates as a candidate in a Commonwealth election. </p>
<h2>Has this now resolved all the problems?</h2>
<p>We now have more certainty than we did a year ago. We know that a person can be disqualified for holding dual citizenship, even when it was inherited through parents and the person holding it did not know of its existence. Ignorance is no excuse. We also now know that a person has to complete the process of renunciation of that foreign citizenship before he or she nominates to stand for parliament, even if it takes a long time to complete it. </p>
<p>The only exemption will be if it is impossible to renounce the foreign citizenship or the steps for doing so are unreasonable, such as a requirement that would involve a risk to the person, such as residency in a dangerous country. </p>
<p>It is in this area that there may yet be litigation. Some countries make it very difficult to renounce foreign citizenship, and the court may have to decide in the future about the point at which that difficulty becomes unreasonable. So this may not necessarily be the last of these cases.</p>
<h2>What are the ramifications?</h2>
<p>In practice, it will mean that political parties need to complete their pre-selection processes well before an election to allow sufficient time for any renunciation. If there is a snap election, or where casual vacancies or byelections occur and a candidate is needed quickly, those with dual citizenship may have to be passed over if there is not enough time to renounce the foreign citizenship. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-voters-just-want-citizenship-crisis-fixed-but-it-isnt-that-easy-87201">Grattan on Friday: Voters just want citizenship crisis fixed – but it isn't that easy</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>It is also likely that arrangements will be made with some countries, such as the United Kingdom, to fast-track processing of renunciation to deal with this problem.</p>
<p>But in other countries, this will not be feasible, so some potential candidates will have to renounce a long time in advance in order to be ready to nominate if the opportunity arises. The message to every aspiring politician is to check your family tree, identify any foreign citizenship you may have and renounce now.</p>
<h2>Can this be fixed?</h2>
<p>Realistically, the only way of removing this problem is by way of a constitutional amendment approved by a referendum. There have been many past proposals to repeal this disqualification, or to replace it with a requirement that all candidates be Australian citizens, or instead to give parliament the power to deal with the issue by legislation. </p>
<p>It would not be necessary to abandon the principle that members of parliament have sole allegiance to Australia. Instead, this could be achieved by legislation that puts control over renunciation of foreign citizenship into Australian hands.</p>
<p>The biggest problem with the current provision is that both the law as to who is a foreign citizen and the procedure to renounce it are outside Australian control.</p>
<p>Would such a referendum be successful? I have my doubts. It is likely to be perceived as something to help politicians, not the people.</p>
<p>But this High Court judgment will make it more difficult for people from some countries to become members of parliament, and that unfairness may provide a stronger argument to support a referendum to change the system.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/96267/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anne Twomey has received funding from the Australian Research Council and occasionally does consultancy work for governments and inter-governmental bodies.</span></em></p>Today’s High Court decision against Katy Gallagher has clarified how to interpret the constitution on this matter. But the problem of dual citizenship can only be properly fixed by a referendum.Anne Twomey, Professor of Constitutional Law, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/915702018-02-09T02:17:21Z2018-02-09T02:17:21ZVIDEO: Michelle Grattan on the private lives of our politicians<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/205635/original/file-20180209-180826-ktonpj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Lukas Coch</span></span></figcaption></figure><figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/gFTCs1sLcms?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>The University of Canberra’s Nicholas Klomp and Michelle Grattan discuss the week in politics, including whether the private lives of politicians are in the public interest, Cathy McGowan’s proposal to ban personal relationships between MPs and their staffers, Jacqui Lambie ousting Steve Martin from her party, and Labor MP Susan Lamb’s emotional story on why she holds dual citizenship.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/91570/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Nicholas Klomp and Michelle Grattan discuss the week in politics.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraNicholas Klomp, Deputy Vice-Chancellor, Academic, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/911052018-02-01T11:57:01Z2018-02-01T11:57:01ZGrattan on Friday: For Bill Shorten, it will be a matter of eyes left and centre<p>In the early months of 2018 Bill Shorten will have the tough challenge of juggling his pitches to Labor’s two bases – its progressive and its traditional supporters.</p>
<p>The byelection in the inner Melbourne seat of Batman, which follows the exit of <a href="https://theconversation.com/early-byelection-test-for-shorten-after-david-feeney-quits-parliament-91073">Labor’s David Feeney on Thursday</a>, is a race that will be run on the left side of the political field.</p>
<p>The Greens have a great chance to give their one lower house MP, Adam Bandt, a colleague. Labor will be under particular pressure on awkward issues, especially the proposed Queensland Adani mine and its stance on refugees. It was notable that this week Shorten, asked about Adani, sounded more cautious and cooler than previously. The Greens, mobilised in Batman on that issue, will pursue him relentlessly.</p>
<p>There’s a good deal of pessimism in Labor about the byelection, but some see a few bright spots. Feeney dragged down Labor’s vote in 2016. There’s bad blood within the Greens. And Labor’s left-aligned candidate, ACTU president Ged Kearney, will strongly prosecute progressive and cost-of-living issues.</p>
<p>While Batman carries high stakes for Shorten – losing it would be a major setback with implications well beyond the forfeit of a Labor number – it is also something of a niche contest. The Liberals don’t even intend to turn up with a candidate.</p>
<p>The main national game is firmly on the centre ground. And if byelections come in other Labor seats as a consequence of the citizenship imbroglio, it would be mostly on that ground where Shorten would be fighting.</p>
<p>Especially worrying for Labor is the likeliest contest – in the Queensland electorate of Longman, where ALP MP Susan Lamb <a href="https://theconversation.com/high-court-to-rule-on-two-labor-mps-but-partisan-row-protects-others-88712">didn’t provide adequate documentation</a> to the British authorities and so remains a dual citizen.</p>
<p>Her argument is that she did all she reasonably could to renounce her British citizenship – a proposition which will be tested if, as expected, the government refers her to the High Court, together with two other Labor MPs and crossbencher <a href="https://theconversation.com/sharkie-told-by-turnbull-she-may-have-to-go-to-high-court-87211">Rebekha Sharkie</a>.</p>
<p>In a byelection in Longman, which Labor holds by less than 1%, Shorten would need to appeal to blue-collar and other workers who’d be more likely to register any protest by voting One Nation (whose preferences helped the ALP last time) than Green. The Liberal National Party believes the previous member, Wyatt Roy, lost it votes and that it would have a good chance of regaining the seat when it had another candidate.</p>
<p>Late last year the government was in a world of pain with byelections in New England and Bennelong (in the event, both turned out very well for it). Now the pain is all Labor’s.</p>
<p>More broadly, Shorten for a long time seemed to have the political breaks running his way, but suddenly things have turned. Beyond the citizenship crisis, the economy is looking better, and Malcolm Turnbull’s performance has lifted.</p>
<p>A nightmare scenario for Shorten would be to lose both Batman and Longman.</p>
<p>If Batman went, it would open a debate within Labor about whether it was doing enough to meet the challenge of the Green vote at the next election.</p>
<p>The timing of a Batman defeat would be in the run-up to the ALP’s July national conference. Probably it would sharpen the conference arguments, potentially making that much-publicised event look more like a battleground than the showcase Shorten needs, given the election would be at most about nine months away and possibly much closer.</p>
<p>If, in addition to a Batman loss, Longman changed hands, that would present a crisis for Shorten and Labor.</p>
<p>It would increase the government’s majority and destabilise Shorten’s leadership. Whether that destabilisation would turn into any move against him can’t be predicted, except to say Anthony Albanese retains his ambition.</p>
<p>Albanese, who slapped down a strong Green push in his Sydney electorate of Grayndler in 2016, will strut his stuff in the Batman campaign.</p>
<p>Shorten’s position is protected by Labor’s rules, which make a leadership change very difficult. He has also had the security blanket of the polls, which have seen the ALP consistently in front.</p>
<p>But within the ALP there’s concern that he is not liked by voters or fully trusted by them. Those worries would intensify if the government’s polling improved.</p>
<p>In the months ahead he has to be careful. He can’t afford the sort of exaggeration he indulged in last year when he claimed too vehemently that Labor had a foolproof vetting system to deal with dual citizenship. The crowing brought a short-term sugar hit but the legacy is the perception that he was having a lend of us.</p>
<p>On another front, he was careless this week with some loose language that invited speculation Labor might cut the health insurance rebate. This was quickly hosed down, but it allowed the government to raise a scare.</p>
<p>Ahead of parliament’s return on Monday, both Shorten and Turnbull delivered scene-setting speeches this week.</p>
<p>Turnbull <a href="https://theconversation.com/expect-2018-to-be-a-year-of-rewards-turnbull-91021">had nothing new</a> but again dangled the prospect of tax cuts for middle-income earners. The timing of these and how much they’d be worth – especially when the planned hike in the Medicare levy is taken into account – remain known unknowns.</p>
<p>While Turnbull, polls notwithstanding, does seem to be reviving politically, he is still facing a cynical and disappointed electorate that will be hard to please. It will take more than modest tax cuts to bring many voters round.</p>
<p>Turnbull has a strong case as the numbers show an improving economy and an impressive jobs record. But with flat wages and the high cost of living, Labor can exploit people’s feeling that the better times are not flowing through to their household budgets.</p>
<p>Shorten <a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-shorten-targets-hip-pocket-pain-but-prescriptions-yet-to-come-90959">highlighted</a> “the disconnect between wages and productivity” in his speech, and held out the prospect of addressing it, and achieving an adequate “living wage”.</p>
<p>That raises both the public’s expectations and the hackles of a business community nervous about what changes a Labor government might make to rebalance the strength of employers and workers in the industrial relations system.</p>
<p>No doubt there will be plenty of calls during the Batman campaign for some of the detail of what Labor plans.</p>
<iframe src="https://www.podbean.com/media/player/99z29-862eb3?from=site&skin=1&share=1&fonts=Helvetica&auto=0&download=0" height="100" width="100%" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" data-name="pb-iframe-player"></iframe><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/91105/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Bill Shorten for a long time seemed to have the political breaks running his way, but suddenly things have turned.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.