tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/tar-sands-13008/articlesTar sands – The Conversation2023-10-22T11:41:36Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2149002023-10-22T11:41:36Z2023-10-22T11:41:36ZHow secrecy and regulatory capture drove Alberta’s oil and gas liability crisis<p>“<a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-hustle-in-the-oil-patch-inside-a-looming-financial-and-environmental/">A hustle in the oil patch</a>”, a “<a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=2072055">dirty legacy</a>”: These are just a couple of the ways that the escalating costs of abandoning and reclaiming non-producing oil wells in Canada have been described. </p>
<p>In a <a href="https://www.policyschool.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/EFL-49A-AB-ConvenOGLiabilityRegime.YewchukFluker.pdf">new paper</a>, we look back over 40 years and identify three factors that have led to this unprecedented regulatory failure.</p>
<h2>A looming crisis</h2>
<p>In Alberta, roughly 237,000 drilled wells will need to be abandoned and the land remediated and reclaimed. About 80,000 of these wells are currently non-producing (<a href="https://www.canadianenergycentre.ca/understanding-inactive-and-orphan-wells-in-alberta/">referred to as <em>inactive wells</em></a>), while another 90,000 abandoned wells still await remediation and reclamation. </p>
<p>To make matters worse, bankruptcies in the oil and gas industry have left thousands of wells without responsible owners throughout <a href="https://www.orphanwell.ca/about/orphan-inventory/">Alberta</a> and <a href="https://www.saskatchewan.ca/business/agriculture-natural-resources-and-industry/oil-and-gas/liability-management/orphan-fund-procurement-program/orphan-inventory">Saskatchewan</a> (known as <em>orphan wells</em>). Inactive wells that have not been properly abandoned and reclaimed pose a significant environmental risk, including from <a href="https://distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca/44de649e994977a9771ff83959ba6b9563f5c1352ec3ba4f83c4d256f40a6b41">methane emissions</a> (a potent greenhouse gas).</p>
<p>The looming financial and environmental crisis is <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/climate-and-environment/here-s-how-deep-canada-s-orphan-well-problem-runs-1.6338136">Canada-wide</a>, but its epicentre is in Alberta.</p>
<p>Alberta’s auditor general has <a href="https://www.oag.ab.ca/reports/oag-liability-management-of-non-oil-sands-oil-and-gas-infrastructure/">recently reported</a> estimates of $60 billion in closure liabilities in the conventional (non-oil sands) sector. Meanwhile the province holds less than $295 million from industry in security — 0.5 per cent of official estimates. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-albertas-oilsands-continue-leaking-toxic-wastewater-aquatic-wildlife-face-new-risks-203570">As Alberta’s oilsands continue leaking toxic wastewater, aquatic wildlife face new risks</a>
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<p>And $60 billion is the low estimate — leaked documents from a joint industry-regulator project in 2018 estimated liabilities upwards of <a href="https://www.nationalobserver.com/2018/11/01/news/alberta-regulator-privately-estimates-oilpatchs-financial-liabilities-are-hundreds">$130 billion</a>. In other words, taking on these liabilities will at least double and possibly triple Alberta’s current debt of $80 billion. </p>
<h2>How did we get here?</h2>
<p>Various explanations have been put forward to justify this appalling state of affairs, including downturns in the oil and gas industry. Alberta’s <a href="https://www.oag.ab.ca/reports/oag-liability-management-of-non-oil-sands-oil-and-gas-infrastructure/">auditor general has shown</a>, however, that the province’s closure liability has grown steadily over the past decades — in good times and in bad.</p>
<p>The slight drop in the number of inactive wells in the past few years is due to the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/financial-aid-covid19-trudeau-1.5535629">federal government providing $1.7 billion</a> to Alberta, British Columbia and Saskatchewan for abandonment and reclamation work in April 2020. Alberta received the majority of this funding in exchange for a commitment to make regulatory changes and ensure adherence to the <em>polluter pays</em> principle.</p>
<p>Subsequently, Alberta <a href="https://www.alberta.ca/system/files/custom_downloaded_images/energy-liability-management-framework.pdf">announced a new Liability Management Framework</a>, committed to reducing inactive wells, preventing them from becoming orphans, and ensuring timely reclamation. </p>
<p>At the time, the then-minister of energy admitted that successive governments had long been aware of the growing closure liability problem and notes “<a href="https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/alberta-to-overhaul-flawed-scheme-that-regulates-old-oil-and-gas-infrastructure">we’re looking at decades where no government has been willing to move on this file.</a>”</p>
<p>In our new paper, we show how this massive regulatory failure is best understood as the predictable result of three historic deficiencies in Alberta’s regulatory regime. These failures include a lack of transparency, excessive regulatory discretion and pervasive regulatory capture by industry.</p>
<p><strong>Lack of transparency:</strong> The <a href="https://www.aer.ca/">Alberta Energy Regulator</a> and its predecessors have cultivated a culture of secrecy and non-transparency that has stymied accountability, democratic scrutiny and <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.163972">discouraged penalties for non-compliance</a>. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">An overview of the problem of liability and oversight in America’s abandoned oil wells, produced by the Financial Times.</span></figcaption>
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<p><strong>Excessive discretion:</strong> Alberta’s governing laws and regulations have been — and remain — far too reliant of the regulator’s discretion which <a href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=931330">can be co-opted by short-term political, economic, and social pressures that favour business as usual</a>.</p>
<p><strong>Regulatory capture:</strong> The Alberta Energy Regulator and its predecessors have a long history of allowing industry to influence the design and administration of the liability management regime. Some illustrations of this <a href="https://www.tobinproject.org/books-papers/preventing-capture">regulatory capture</a> include the regulator’s refusal to require adequate security deposits for closure work and grossly underestimating actual closure liabilities.</p>
<p>Because we find that these three core deficiencies persist in Alberta’s new Liability Management Framework, we conclude that it too is unlikely to succeed in ensuring that the polluter pays for the sector’s closure work.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/alberta-election-is-the-provinces-energy-regulator-acting-in-the-public-interest-204007">Alberta election: Is the province's energy regulator acting in the public interest?</a>
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<p>In addition to the $1.7 billion referred to above, Canadian taxpayers have already started paying for closure work on orphan wells. This is the case despite the fact that entities such as <a href="https://www.orphanwell.ca/">Alberta’s Orphan Well Association</a> (OWA) were established on the understanding that industry would collectively bear responsibility for their clean-up. </p>
<p>What started as a trickle of public funds - a $30 million grant from the provincial government in 2009 and a $50,000 contribution from Alberta Energy in 2012 — <a href="https://www.orphanwell.ca/faq/">has ballooned into hundreds of millions of dollars in interest-free government loans to the OWA</a>, with loan repayment scheduled to run until 2035.</p>
<h2>A public inquiry</h2>
<p>Given the scale of this liability problem and the unprecedented financial and environmental risks it poses to the public, we recommend that a public inquiry — <a href="https://www.cba.org/Sections/Public-Sector-Lawyers/Resources/Resources/2023/EssayWinner2023PSL">led by principles of deliberative democracy</a> — be struck with a mandate to undertake a full and transparent accounting for policies implemented over the past several decades.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-big-four-oilsands-companies-influence-threatens-alberta-democracy-argues-political-scientist-188567">The Big Four oilsands companies' influence threatens Alberta democracy, argues political scientist</a>
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<p>Canada is on the path to having the vast majority of its oil and gas cleanup liabilities become the public’s problem. A public inquiry and serious reform are the only things that can turn things around.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214900/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shaun Fluker is the Executive Director of the Public Interest Law Clinic at the University of Calgary. The Clinic does project work on closure liability in Alberta.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Drew Yewchuk was previously a staff lawyer with the Public Interest Law Clinic at the University of Calgary. The Clinic does project work on closure liability in Alberta.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Martin Olszynski does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Decades of secrecy and industry influence in Alberta have created a crisis of liability in abandoned oil infrastructure which only a serious course correction can hope to fix.Shaun Fluker, Associate Professor of Law, University of CalgaryDrew Yewchuk, Lawyer at the Public Interest Law Clinic, University of CalgaryMartin Olszynski, Associate Professor, Faculty of Law, University of CalgaryLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2087192023-06-29T21:01:10Z2023-06-29T21:01:10ZCanada Day: Why renaming roads and how we tell stories matter for reconciliation<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534645/original/file-20230628-19-8rqkyn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=108%2C229%2C3198%2C2092&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A Canada Goose stands on the road in Ottawa which will now be known as Kichi Zībī Mīkan (Great River Road), after the National Capital Commission agreed to change the name from the Sir John A. Macdonald Parkway.
The road was closed to cars in May 2020. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The recent renaming of the Sir John A. Macdonald Parkway in Ottawa to <a href="https://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/ncc-votes-to-rename-the-sir-john-a-macdonald-parkway-in-ottawa-1.6451053">Kichi Zībī Mīkan</a> (“Great River Road”) comes as Canada Day invites Canadians to define not only where we are, but also who we are in our national imagination. </p>
<p>Reclaiming Indigenous names in our public spaces is just one way to create new avenues for what Cree Elder and scholar Willie Ermine calls “<a href="https://jps.library.utoronto.ca/index.php/ilj/article/view/27669">ethical spaces of engagement</a>.” This seems in keeping with the mutual respect required to engage in the difficult, ongoing work of reconciliation, the flagship project of which is enacting the <a href="https://nctr.ca/records/reports/">94 calls to action by the Truth and Reconciliation Commission of Canada (TRC)</a>. </p>
<p>As Kanien’kehaka scholar Taiaiake Alfred reminds us in <em>Whose land is it Anyway? A Manual for Decolonization</em>, “it’s all about the land,” meaning that “reconciliation that rearranges political orders, reforms legalities and promotes economics is still colonial” unless and until it centres Indigenous Peoples’ “<a href="https://fpse.ca/sites/default/files/news_files/Decolonization%20Handbook.pdf">relationship to the land</a>.”</p>
<p>Canadians are revisiting national self-definition in light of calls for decolonization and reconciliation. In my field of environmental communication, we learn that how we represent a place can reveal much about the place and even more about who we are and what we value.</p>
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<img alt="People's feet seen standing amid grass and bushes in front of a memorial showing orange shirts and stuffed animals." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534858/original/file-20230629-19-z6un42.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534858/original/file-20230629-19-z6un42.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534858/original/file-20230629-19-z6un42.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534858/original/file-20230629-19-z6un42.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534858/original/file-20230629-19-z6un42.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534858/original/file-20230629-19-z6un42.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534858/original/file-20230629-19-z6un42.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">People pause to give their respect at a memorial after 215 graves were detected on the grounds of the former Kamloops Residential School at an event organized by 1492 Land Back Lane in Dufferin Grove Park, Toronto, on Sept. 30, 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Evan Buhler</span></span>
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<h2>Space and place</h2>
<p>The geographer <a href="https://theconversation.com/remembering-yi-fu-tuan-the-most-influential-scholar-youve-never-heard-of-189276">Yi-Fu Tuan</a> recognized that humans have universal biological, psychological, social and spiritual needs for both space and place. </p>
<p>Non-Indigenous settler Canadians’ connections to the land vary. For example, according to recent statistics, <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/221026/dq221026a-eng.htm">almost one in four people here are immigrants</a>, <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220413/dq220413b-eng.htm">one in nine Canadians live abroad</a> and <a href="https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2021/as-sa/98-200-X/2021008/98-200-X2021008-eng.cfm">one in nine Canadians have multiple citizenships</a>. </p>
<p>For settler Canadians, even if we do stay put, we are by definition removed from our ancestral lands, even if our families have been here for generations. Yet we can be fiercely attached to place, so much so that it becomes a centre for our belonging, behaviour and how we make sense of the world. </p>
<p>In this light, place is more than a location; it also imbues human experiences, emotions and meanings tied to our environment.</p>
<h2>Place and collective identity</h2>
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<img alt="A tourism poster showing mountains." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534852/original/file-20230629-29-v0fp6i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534852/original/file-20230629-29-v0fp6i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=938&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534852/original/file-20230629-29-v0fp6i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=938&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534852/original/file-20230629-29-v0fp6i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=938&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534852/original/file-20230629-29-v0fp6i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1179&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534852/original/file-20230629-29-v0fp6i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1179&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534852/original/file-20230629-29-v0fp6i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1179&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">1924 ‘See Canada – Travel by Canadian National Railways – Jasper Park Lodge, Rocky Mountains’ poster.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(BiblioArchives/LibraryArchives/Flickr)</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>Environmental psychology suggests <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2020.00294">place can also become a source of our collective identity</a>. For Canadians, land has become a powerful source of not only attachment but also self-definition, distinction and pride. </p>
<p>This can be constructed and encouraged by culture and media; indeed, the <a href="https://cbc.radio-canada.ca/en/vision/mandate">CBC</a> and the <a href="https://jobs.nfb.ca/about">National Film Board</a> exist to serve such purposes. </p>
<p>Popular portrayals of Canada have traditionally depicted nature. </p>
<p>Artists like <a href="https://doi.org/10.3138/jcs.33.2.43">Emily Carr</a>, <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Victor-Kennedy/publication/355021780_Canadian_Identity_in_Popular_Music/links/61580082a6fae644fbbe5d5d/Canadian-Identity-in-Popular-Music.pdf">Gordon Lightfoot</a> and <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctv8j5dh">Lucy Maud Montgomery</a> conjured images of landscapes that became emblazoned, in varied ways, in settler Canadians’ national imagination and self-concepts, through their own circulation, <a href="https://canadiangeographic.ca/articles/the-landscapes-that-inspired-anne-of-green-gables/">additional commentary</a> and the <a href="https://www.gallerieswest.ca/news/landmark-group-of-seven-show-opens-in-germany/">arts</a>, culture and <a href="https://www.tourismpei.com/what-to-do/anne-of-green-gables/lucy-maud-montgomery">tourism</a> sectors. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/gordon-lightfoots-music-raised-awareness-of-great-lakes-maritime-disasters-204887">Gordon Lightfoot's music raised awareness of Great Lakes maritime disasters</a>
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<h2>Place branding</h2>
<p>These portrayals matter. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-230-24702-4">Place branding</a> has important implications in the international arena for political influence, trading relationships and more. </p>
<p>Canada’s <a href="https://www.lonelyplanet.com/articles/best-places-to-visit-in-canada">lauded tourist attractions</a> include natural splendour like Niagara Falls, the Rocky Mountains, Whistler, Baffin Island and Vancouver Island, and new ways of thinking about how to <a href="https://niagaraparks.com/explore/explore-the-niagara/indigenous-culture-in-niagara-region/#">narrate the stories of these places</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/indigenous-tourism-sector-bounce-back-1.6888662">Unprecedented interest in Indigenous culture and history</a> shines a spotlight on Canada and its relations with First Peoples.</p>
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<h2>Depicting place</h2>
<p>My study, <em><a href="https://www.uap.ualberta.ca/titles/822-9781772121407-tar-wars">Tar Wars</a>,</em> illustrated how representations of place have mattered to public understandings of Alberta and Canada in light of their stewardship of the Athabasca tar/oilsands.</p>
<p>That study showed how several independent documentary films, like <a href="https://www.iwerksandco.com/dirtyoil"><em>Dirty Oil</em></a> and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b9y0GxORBNg"><em>Tipping Point: The Age of the Oil Sands</em></a>, called out Alberta/Canada for running roughshod over the boreal forest and waters of northern Alberta.
These films called attention to the effects the massive extraction project had on the health, well-being and livelihoods of Indigenous Peoples in affected communities.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Trailer for ‘Tipping Point: The Age of the Oil Sands.’</span></figcaption>
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<p>The oil industry and the Alberta and federal governments responded with PR campaigns asserting their compliance with environmental standards, and the dedication of industry employees.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/artists-organize-to-offer-new-visions-for-tackling-climate-change-182484">Artists organize to offer new visions for tackling climate change</a>
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<p>Popular images of Canada’s pristine wilderness were challenged by images of limitless open-pit mines and poisoned water. One viral photo depicted <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-imperialoil-ducks-idUSN0145724120080501">500 oil-soaked dead ducks</a>. These images fed a perceptible shift in the framing of Alberta/Canada in some popular media, raising questions about who we are and what we value as a nation.</p>
<h2>Place as inspiration for action</h2>
<p>As the TRC reminds us, reconciliation is an ongoing process of engagement. If settler Canadians value their home, their place and how it’s perceived here and abroad, then we may pause on <a href="https://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/transatlantic-flights-return-to-ottawa-airport-and-canada-s-156th-birthday-five-stories-to-watch-this-week-1.6455173">the nation’s 156th birthday</a> to imagine how diverse Indigenous Peoples, who have been here since time immemorial, might feel about this place sometimes called Canada.</p>
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<span class="caption">Jully Black on the red carpet for the 2022 Canada’s Walk of Fame Gala in Toronto in December 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/ Tijana Martin</span></span>
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<p>We might choose to take up Ermine’s invitation to create new ethical spaces for engagement. </p>
<p>This could mean drawing on our common attachment to and identification with the land (albeit manifested in different ways) to establish and maintain mutually respectful relationships. </p>
<p>This Canada Day (and every day), creating new ethical spaces for reconciliation seems like a fitting way to celebrate what singer Jully Black noted in her rendition of our national anthem at the 2023 NBA all-star game: <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64722763">our home on Native land</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208719/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Geo Takach receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council, funded by the Government of Canada.</span></em></p>How we represent a place can reveal much about it and even more about who we are and what we value.Geo Takach, Professor of Communication and Culture, Royal Roads UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1617292021-07-20T12:15:12Z2021-07-20T12:15:12ZEnergy pipelines are controversial now, but one of the first big ones helped win World War II<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411565/original/file-20210715-23-j920co.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C3%2C2568%2C1902&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The "Big Inch" oil pipeline at Phoenixville, Pennsylvania, around 1943. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/phoenixville-pa-a-congressional-committee-was-told-that-news-photo/515185136">Betttman via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Oil and gas pipelines have become flashpoints in discussions of climate change. From the <a href="https://atlanticcoastpipeline.com/">Atlantic coast</a> to the <a href="https://www.daplpipelinefacts.com/">Dakotas</a>, pipelines that would deliver fossil fuels to customers have sparked protests and legal challenges. The <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/06/09/1004908006/developer-abandons-keystone-xl-pipeline-project-ending-decade-long-battle">Keystone XL pipeline</a>, which was designed to carry oil from Alberta tar sands to refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-55773243">roiled U.S.-Canadian relations for a decade</a> before it was finally canceled in 2021. </p>
<p>Amid these debates, it’s easy to forget how heavily the U.S. economy relies on existing energy pipelines. In 2020 some 84,000 miles (135,000 kilometers) of <a href="https://www.phmsa.dot.gov/data-and-statistics/pipeline/annual-report-mileage-hazardous-liquid-or-carbon-dioxide-systems">long-distance pipelines</a> carried crude oil, while another 64,000 miles (103,000 kilometers) of pipe moved refined products, including gasoline and jet fuel. </p>
<p>These systems typically draw attention only when they <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-30/30-years-of-oil-and-gas-pipeline-spills-mapped?sref=Hjm5biAW">leak</a> or are damaged. For example, in May 2021 <a href="https://www.vox.com/recode/22428774/ransomeware-pipeline-colonial-darkside-gas-prices">the Colonial Pipeline</a> made headlines when a cyberattack shut it down, interrupting gasoline supplies along the East Coast.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411566/original/file-20210715-32735-1jwuuf1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="vintage poster depicts World War II fighter pilots and urges Americans to conserve fuel." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411566/original/file-20210715-32735-1jwuuf1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411566/original/file-20210715-32735-1jwuuf1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=794&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411566/original/file-20210715-32735-1jwuuf1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=794&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411566/original/file-20210715-32735-1jwuuf1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=794&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411566/original/file-20210715-32735-1jwuuf1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=998&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411566/original/file-20210715-32735-1jwuuf1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=998&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411566/original/file-20210715-32735-1jwuuf1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=998&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">World War II poster produced by the Petroleum Industry War Council.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/world-war-ii-era-poster-features-a-bomber-crew-in-flight-news-photo/120207965">Photo Quest via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Ironically, this network originated as the solution to a pressing energy problem and was initiated over objections from the oil industry. In 1942 Germany’s U-boats <a href="https://www.basicbooks.com/titles/ed-offley/the-burning-shore/9780465029617/">brought World War II to the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts</a>, sinking dozens of merchant ships, including oil tankers. That damage spurred construction of the first large U.S. pipelines, which fueled the Allied war effort.</p>
<h2>Tankers at risk</h2>
<p>Petroleum currently supplies <a href="https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/us-energy-facts/">about one-third of U.S. energy consumption</a>. Much of it is delivered by pipeline. It would take at least <a href="https://www.phmsa.dot.gov/faqs/general-pipeline-faqs">750 tanker trucks per day</a>, loading up and moving out every two minutes, working 24 hours a day, seven days a week, to carry as much oil as even a modest pipeline. </p>
<p>In the 1800s much U.S.-produced oil came from wells in Pennsylvania and Ohio. However, when prospectors struck oil in <a href="https://www.lamar.edu/spindletop-gladys-city/spindletop-history.html">Spindletop, Texas, in 1901</a>, the industry shifted to the Lone Star State. </p>
<p>These fields produced much of the gasoline that fueled the automobile revolution, using <a href="https://www.kunc.org/business/2014-08-05/the-strange-history-of-the-american-pipeline">narrow-bore</a> pipes to move crude over distances of a few miles from wells to refineries or railroads. To get oil to big refineries in the Northeast, Texas companies relied on tankers that sailed through the Gulf of Mexico and up the Atlantic coast. By the late 1930s these ships transported <a href="https://www.nist.gov/blogs/taking-measure/big-inch-fueling-americas-wwii-war-effort">95% of American petroleum products</a>. </p>
<p>Nazi strategists knew that sinking ships directly off the coast would terrify many Americans. Immediately after the U.S. entered World War II in December 1941, U-boats launched attacks on American coastal shipping. In February 1942 alone, <a href="https://www.nist.gov/blogs/taking-measure/big-inch-fueling-americas-wwii-war-effort">Nazi subs sank 12 tankers off the East Coast</a>.</p>
<p>To avoid the U-boats, oil companies tried moving crude by rail and barge. This limited delivery to 140,000 barrels a day, less than half of the 300,000 barrels needed to meet wartime demand at East coast refineries.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/m0fyIvLhe54?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">German submarines sank more than 50 U.S. ships in the Gulf of Mexico during World War II, seeking to disrupt shipments to Allied nations in Europe.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Piping replaces shipping</h2>
<p>In the spring of 1942, Interior Secretary Harold Ickes proposed <a href="http://lcweb2.loc.gov/master/pnp/habshaer/tx/tx0900/tx0944/data/tx0944data.pdf">constructing a large-diameter war emergency pipeline</a>. The oil industry balked: It cost 16 cents a barrel to send oil by sea from Texas to New York, and executives argued that building pipelines would <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1941/07/23/archives/oil-pipeline-now-is-urged-by-ickes-70000000-system-to-bring-250000.html?searchResultPosition=1">double the cost</a>. When industrial and military needs for petroleum grew desperate, the companies relented, partnering with the government to build the new pipeline.</p>
<p>Engineers designed a giant conduit capable of supplying oil needed for the war effort, far larger than existing 8-inch lines. Workers dubbed the 24-inch-diameter pipeline the “<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Inch#cite_note-Klein_2013_499-25">Big Inch</a>.” </p>
<p>Construction began in June 1942. Government officials chose an inland route, avoiding coastal states that might be vulnerable to enemy air attacks. The Big Inch was constructed in two sections: one north from Texas to Illinois and another from Indiana eastward. A second, 20-inch-diameter line, the “Little Big Inch,” was added in 1943.</p>
<p>These became the world’s longest pipelines, snaking across 1,340 miles (2,150 kilometers). The US$146 million project was <a href="http://content.time.com/time/subscriber/article/0,33009,779839,00.html">one of the most expensive initiatives</a> underwritten by the federal government during World War II. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411336/original/file-20210714-15-a6k834.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411336/original/file-20210714-15-a6k834.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411336/original/file-20210714-15-a6k834.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411336/original/file-20210714-15-a6k834.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411336/original/file-20210714-15-a6k834.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411336/original/file-20210714-15-a6k834.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=594&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411336/original/file-20210714-15-a6k834.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=594&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411336/original/file-20210714-15-a6k834.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=594&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ralph K. Davies, George Hull, W. Alton Jones and Burt Hull at the Big Inch opening, Feb. 19, 1943. All four men were oil industry executives who took on roles with the federal government during World War II.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:“Big_Inch”_opening.jpg#/media/File:“Big_Inch”_opening.jpg">Petroleum Administration for War</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Oil began flowing in August 1943. Over the next two years, these two lines delivered 300,000 gallons of oil per day to refineries in New Jersey and Philadelphia, which was then shipped overseas. The U.S. ultimately supplied <a href="http://historynewsnetwork.org/article/339">6 billion of the 7 billion barrels of oil</a> used by Allied forces during the war. In 1945 Ickes called the Big Inch one of the country’s “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1945/01/27/archives/little-big-inch-one-year-old.html?searchResultPosition=1">most potent weapons of war</a>.”</p>
<p>The Big Inch was featured in <a href="http://lcweb2.loc.gov/master/pnp/habshaer/tx/tx0900/tx0944/data/tx0944data.pdf">newsreel shorts</a> with titles such as “Pipe Dream Comes True – Oil!” and “Oil is Blood.” But although it demonstrated that large volumes of oil could be moved cross-country, it didn’t capture the public imagination like the atomic bomb, radar or penicillin. </p>
<p>In 1947 the federal government sold the pipeline to the Texas Eastern Transmission Corporation. It <a href="https://www.kunc.org/business/2014-08-05/the-strange-history-of-the-american-pipeline">still carries natural gas</a> from Texas to the Northeast.</p>
<p>Long-distance pipeline construction <a href="https://www.api.org/%7E/media/files/oil-and-natural-gas/ppts/other-files/decadefinal.pdf?la=en">accelerated in the 1950s and 1960s</a> as the technology improved and oil demand grew. More than half the existing U.S. fuel pipeline network was <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/aging-pipelines-raise-concerns-1478128942">built before 1970</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411337/original/file-20210714-19-oq39nb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map showing pipelines from Texas to mid-Atlantic coast." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411337/original/file-20210714-19-oq39nb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411337/original/file-20210714-19-oq39nb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411337/original/file-20210714-19-oq39nb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411337/original/file-20210714-19-oq39nb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411337/original/file-20210714-19-oq39nb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=618&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411337/original/file-20210714-19-oq39nb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=618&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411337/original/file-20210714-19-oq39nb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=618&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Big Inch and Little Inch pipelines.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://lcweb2.loc.gov/master/pnp/habshaer/tx/tx0900/tx0944/data/tx0944data.pdf">Historic American Engineering Record/National Park Service</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Climate change, the next target</h2>
<p>Today the enemy is climate change, and pipelines are in the crosshairs as part of the fossil fuel production and delivery system. Pipeline projects also are more controversial because they now are subject to <a href="https://theconversation.com/trump-proposal-to-weaken-project-reviews-threatens-the-magna-carta-of-environmental-law-93258">environmental impact assessments</a>. These reviews analyze how building the pipelines could affect local water supplies, wildlife, nearby historic sites nearby and other facets of the communities they pass through. </p>
<p>Debate over the Keystone XL pipeline shows how the framework for considering pipeline projects has expanded. <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/06/09/1004908006/developer-abandons-keystone-xl-pipeline-project-ending-decade-long-battle">Opposition</a> to the $8 billion, 1,200-mile pipeline focused on safety concerns, its route across Indigenous lands, destruction of boreal forest and the large carbon footprint of oil from tar sands. </p>
<p>The latest controversial project is the <a href="https://www.enbridge.com/projects-and-infrastructure/public-awareness/minnesota-projects/line-3-replacement-project">Enbridge Pipeline 3 replacement</a>, which would replace 337 miles of an existing pipeline running through Minnesota. Opponents argue that the project, which would double the old line’s capacity to carry tar sands oil from Alberta to the U.S., threatens Minnesota wetlands, violates the treaty rights of Indigenous people in its path and will help <a href="https://www.stopline3.org/#intro">perpetuate tar sand extraction.</a></p>
<p>The Big Inch and its successors were 20th-century technological accomplishments, but addressing climate change means turning America’s engineering talents to equally ambitious renewable energy projects. As a <a href="https://engineering.virginia.edu/faculty/w-bernard-carlson">historian of technology</a>, I look forward to seeing new solutions emerge. What equivalents of the Big Inch will help win the war against climate change?</p>
<p>[<em>Understand new developments in science, health and technology, each week.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/science-editors-picks-71/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=science-understand">Subscribe to The Conversation’s science newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/161729/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>W. Bernard Carlson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Proposals for new oil and gas pipelines can generate intense debate today, but during World War II the US built an oil pipeline more than 1,300 miles long in less than a year.W. Bernard Carlson, Professor of Humanities and Chair of the Department of Engineering and Society, University of VirginiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1108642019-02-20T11:38:11Z2019-02-20T11:38:11ZUS sanctions on Venezuelan oil could cut the output of refineries at home<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259128/original/file-20190214-1717-1cpzr1y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Louisiana's refineries require the kind of oil Venezuela produces to operate properly.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Spillway-Opening/02a241c0eefd42d184d4681c96159fe5/5/0">AP Photo/Gerald Herbert</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>U.S. <a href="https://www.state.gov/e/eb/tfs/spi/venezuela/">sanctions against Venezuela’s</a> state-owned <a href="https://www.vox.com/world/2019/1/28/18201115/venezuela-ofac-sanctions-pdvsa-oil">oil and gas company</a>, along with <a href="https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm612">some government officials and executives</a>, are intended to put pressure on the government headed by <a href="https://theconversation.com/venezuela-power-struggle-plunges-nation-into-turmoil-3-essential-reads-110419">Nicolás Maduro</a>.</p>
<p>As the interim director of the <a href="https://freeman.tulane.edu/energy-institute/">Tulane Energy Institute</a>, which tracks energy markets and provides forecasts, and someone with 35 years of oil industry experience, I’m certain that they will also reverberate in this country too – <a href="http://www.lmoga.com/issues-initiatives/economic-impact/">especially in Louisiana</a>, where the oil and gas industry is among the state’s biggest employers.</p>
<h2>Economic dysfunction</h2>
<p>Despite having the <a href="https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/the-world-s-largest-oil-reserves-by-country.html">world’s biggest petroleum reserves</a>, Venezuela is now <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-venezuelas-oil-money-could-keep-undermining-its-economy-and-democracy-111013">functionally bankrupt</a> and wracked by <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/12/venezuelan-inflation-approaches-150000percent.html">hyperinflation</a>. Even before the sanctions against <a href="https://www.ogj.com/articles/2000/10/venezuelan-oil-strike-ends-chavez-names-new-pdvsa-president.html">Petróleos de Venezuela</a>, the state-owned company known as PDVSA, its <a href="https://www.eia.gov/opendata/qb.php?category=1039874&sdid=STEO.COPR_VE.M">crude production was rapidly declining</a>.</p>
<p>Since the late president Hugo Chávez’s election in 1998, followed by Maduro’s rise to power in 2013, the Venezuelan government has effectively <a href="https://theconversation.com/venezuela-has-lost-its-democratic-facade-75951">destroyed the country’s political institutions</a>, as well as its petroleum-based economy. <a href="https://www.eia.gov/opendata/qb.php?category=1039874&sdid=STEO.COPR_VE.M">Oil production</a> has declined by two-thirds, dropping from about 3 million barrels per day in 2000 to around 1.2 million barrels per day in January 2019.</p>
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<p>During this long decline, Venezuela <a href="https://www.oilandgas360.com/venezuelan-oil-exports-to-u-s-still-primary-source-of-cash">collected payments in advance</a> from some of its biggest customers, and therefore cannot collect the revenue now that it would otherwise be obtaining from oil production. Thanks to this practice, it actually doesn’t earn any hard currency from much of the crude that it does export.</p>
<p>Instead, these export earnings actually pay off cash advances from <a href="https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/china%E2%80%99s-oil-backed-loans-venezuela-appear-headed-haircut-43992">China</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-47087875">Russia</a> and <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/31/reuters-america-update-2-spains-repsol-gets-oil-price-lift-venezuela-breakthrough.html">Repsol</a>, the Spanish energy company.</p>
<p>Refineries located along the <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=36933">U.S. Gulf Coast in Louisiana and Texas</a> were just about Venezuela’s last source of hard currency. That came to a halt when the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/28/politics/us-sanctions-venezuelan-oil-company/index.html">Trump administration slapped sanctions on PDVSA</a> in late January 2019.</p>
<h2>Crude quality</h2>
<p>You might think that Venezuela could just find new markets for its oil, but that is harder than it may sound.</p>
<p>Venezuelan crude is <a href="http://www.petroleum.co.uk/sweet-vs-sour">heavy and sour</a>, meaning it is extremely dense and contains a high percentage of sulfur. Globally, most refineries process <a href="https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.php?page=oil_refining">light sweet crude</a> into gasoline, jet fuel, diesel and other fuels and products. Only specialized “complex” refineries can handle the dense petroleum produced in Venezuela and remove its unwanted sulfur.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259362/original/file-20190216-56229-vq1s9h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259362/original/file-20190216-56229-vq1s9h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259362/original/file-20190216-56229-vq1s9h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=306&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259362/original/file-20190216-56229-vq1s9h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=306&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259362/original/file-20190216-56229-vq1s9h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=306&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259362/original/file-20190216-56229-vq1s9h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259362/original/file-20190216-56229-vq1s9h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259362/original/file-20190216-56229-vq1s9h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">More than half of U.S. refinery capacity is ‘complex,’ meaning it requires at least some heavy crude oil to operate properly. Nearly all Gulf Coast refineries are complex.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=19591">U.S. Energy Information Administration</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The U.S. refineries that can do this are mainly located along the Gulf Coast, in the Midwest and in California. Most of the rest are located in <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-usa-oil-graphic/u-s-sanctions-on-venezuela-would-reroute-crude-leave-refiners-short-idUSKCN1PH2GU">China and India</a>.</p>
<p>Complex refineries cost about 50 percent more to build. They are also more expensive to operate. They can compete, however, because they use <a href="http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2399132&CategoryId=10717">crude from sources like Venezuela</a> that costs less than most crude oil.</p>
<h2>Complex refineries</h2>
<p>Although <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=35692">U.S. oil production</a> is rising, the domestic industry still needs to import heavy crude to keep the <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=8330">complex refineries</a> operating efficiently. As of early 2019, <a href="https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly">90 percent of U.S. imports were heavy crude</a>. Countries that export this <a href="https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_impcus_a2_nus_ep00_im0_mbbl_m.htm">heavy petroleum</a> include Mexico, Canada, Colombia, Ecuador, Russia, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/asia-oil/graphic-sanctions-opec-cuts-push-asias-sour-crude-oil-prices-above-brent-idUSL3N2031EO">Saudi Arabia, Nigeria and Iran</a>.</p>
<p>Based on their proximity, Canada and Mexico should be good sources for U.S. refiners. However, due to delays in the construction of the <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/federal-judge-blocks-long-delayed-keystone-xl-pipeline-permit-for-environmental-review-2018-11-09">Keystone XL pipeline</a> and <a href="https://earther.gizmodo.com/the-dakota-access-pipeline-wants-to-ship-even-more-oil-1828356960">other pipelines</a> that may eventually run from the northern border to the Gulf Coast, there’s no easy way to replace the blocked shipments from Venezuela.</p>
<p>While Canada is <a href="https://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=5028&mn=98301&pt=msg&mid=19091473">shipping more heavy crude by rail</a>, this approach is much more expensive. It costs about $20 per barrel to ship heavy crude from Canada by rail, versus an estimated <a href="https://www.oilandgas360.com/oil-trains-make-comeback-as-pipeline-bottlenecks-worsen/">$12.50 per barrel via pipelines</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/analysis.php?iso=MEX">Mexico’s challenge</a> is different. Its heavy crude production has been declining for years. Mexico now <a href="https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MTTEXMX1&f=M">imports light crude, as well as gasoline</a> and other refined products <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=37092#">from the U.S.</a>. </p>
<h2>Russia and Saudi Arabia</h2>
<p>Another factor is that <a href="https://theconversation.com/saudi-arabia-is-allying-with-russia-to-shore-up-oil-prices-as-opecs-power-wanes-108310">Saudi Arabia and Russia are cutting</a> their oil production, especially heavy sour crude, as part of an effort to shore up crude prices. Canada is curtailing heavy oil production as well. </p>
<p>It may sound reasonable for the U.S. to simply substitute its own light sweet crude for imported heavy sour crude. But the crude distillation units at complex refineries like those in Louisiana were not designed to use ever higher percentages of light sweet crude.</p>
<p>These refineries require approximately 30 percent heavy crude to operate optimally. At a minimum, the Gulf Coast region needs something like 3.1 million barrels of heavy sour crude per day.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/analysis.php?iso=VEN">563,000 of barrels per day</a> the U.S. was buying from Venezuela in November 2018 only represented <a href="https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MTTIMUSVE1&f=M">2.8 percent of the roughly 20 million barrels of crude it consumed</a>. But those imports represented a bigger share of the heavy oil the U.S. used: 17 percent, according to my calculations. </p>
<p>Without that supply, Gulf Coast refineries can only reduce throughput and shut down much of their idle sulfur removal capacity.</p>
<h2>High stakes for some states</h2>
<p>Shutting off heavy crude from Venezuela to Gulf Coast refineries would reduce the production of <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=6970#">heavier distillates</a>, such as heating oil, marine fuel oil and diesel.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259363/original/file-20190216-56220-ys9qis.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259363/original/file-20190216-56220-ys9qis.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259363/original/file-20190216-56220-ys9qis.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259363/original/file-20190216-56220-ys9qis.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259363/original/file-20190216-56220-ys9qis.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259363/original/file-20190216-56220-ys9qis.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259363/original/file-20190216-56220-ys9qis.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259363/original/file-20190216-56220-ys9qis.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Heavier crude must be distilled at higher temperatures, which yields diesel, fuel oil and other products.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=6970#">U.S. Energy Information Administration</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Jet fuel and gasoline won’t be as affected because these products can be produced from any refinery capable of processing abundant domestic light sweet crude. </p>
<p>I would expect U.S. exports of diesel and heavier distillates to decline as a result, particularly shipments to Latin America and to Europe. After that, domestic supplies to the states supplied by Gulf Coast refineries could be hit as well. </p>
<p>Prices for diesel and fuel oil are likely to rise once <a href="https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Sanctions-On-Venezuela-Leaves-Oil-Market-Scrambling-For-Heavy-Crude.html">supplies are constrained</a>, which could occur quickly because U.S. refineries have little capacity to spare.</p>
<p><iframe id="lCp1m" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/lCp1m/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Even if U.S. refineries do eventually replace Venezuelan oil, the odds are that crude will come from farther away and cost more. That would, in turn, make diesel cost more, increasing the cost to consumers for everything from food to furniture and flat-screen TVs.</p>
<p>This would happen not just in Louisiana, but in communities far away, as long as the delivery trucks, rail cars and vessels involved have diesel engines. The disruption would illustrate the way that U.S. sanctions intended to apply pressure on other countries can also take a toll on Americans.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/110864/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eric Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It will be hard and complicated to replace Venezuela’s heavy sour crude.Eric Smith, Director of the Energy Institute and Professor of Practice, Tulane UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/976362018-06-04T23:00:37Z2018-06-04T23:00:37ZCanada’s Paris-pipeline paradox<p>The Canadian government’s decision to purchase Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain pipeline project shortly after ratifying the Paris Agreement on climate change creates an interesting paradox and a national challenge. </p>
<p>The environmental implications of pipeline development have already caused British Columbia and Alberta to feud, culminating in an <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-unveils-bill-that-could-wreak-havoc-on-b-c-gas-prices-in-trade-war-1.4622165">outright trade war between the two provinces</a>. Canadians are clearly divided on energy and climate politics. </p>
<p>The pipeline would increase current capacity by <a href="https://www.kindermorgan.com/pages/business/canada/tmep.aspx">590,000 barrels per day</a> to deliver oil and gas to national and international markets. The government, as well as many Canadian businesses and citizens, have argued that this is critical for economic growth and the nation’s near-term prosperity. </p>
<p>On the flip side, these decisions have a significant impact on the ability of Canada to meet its greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets and to move towards a “greener” economy. </p>
<p>The fundamental question that needs to be solved is: Can Canada move towards a green economy and meet the GHG reduction targets of the Paris agreement while simultaneously expanding the fossil fuel economy via public ownership of what was the Kinder Morgan pipeline?</p>
<h2>What are the risks?</h2>
<p>Prime Minister Justin Trudeau used concerns about safety and the climate to justify the approval of the Kinder Morgan expansion project. When he signed off on the project in 2016, he said “<a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/federal-cabinet-trudeau-pipeline-decisions-1.3872828">if these projects aren’t built, diluted bitumen would be forced into more rail tanker cars for transport</a>.” </p>
<p>Pipelines are considered to be one of the greenest forms of cargo transport. GHG emission rates are lower by pipeline than by train, for example, and there’s a smaller risk of oil spills because there are fewer transfers.</p>
<p>Yet the environmental costs of a pipeline accident are considerably greater than they are for spills after a train derailment. Pipelines leak larger volumes of oil and it’s more <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/with-pipelines-under-attack-railways-lead-race-to-move-oil/article7264773/">difficult to respond to the spills in a timely manner</a>, particularly for underground pipelines and remote areas. </p>
<h2>Critical flaws, global implications</h2>
<p>Final approval of the Kinder Morgan project was based on Canada’s National Energy Board (NEB) conclusion that it “<a href="https://www.neb-one.gc.ca/bts/nws/nr/2018/nr06-eng.html?=undefined&wbdisable=true">is not likely to cause significant adverse environmental effects</a>.” </p>
<p>The NEB analysis focused on the potential regional and local-scale environmental impacts from the construction and operation of the pipeline. It did not include any systemic emission-based impacts resulting from oil production, oil consumption or shipping and transportation activities. </p>
<p>The NEB’s focus on immediate and local implications at the exclusion of national and global-scale emissions is reflective of a common but critical flaw of our seemingly universal outlook on environmental issues around the world. That is, there’s a tendency to fail to consider a full evaluation of potential impacts. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-kinder-morgan-pipeline-and-pacific-salmon-red-fish-black-gold-89520">The Kinder Morgan pipeline and Pacific salmon: Red fish, black gold</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>An assessment conducted by Environment and Climate Change Canada estimated that the added 590,000 barrels per day in pipeline capacity would result in <a href="https://www.ceaa.gc.ca/050/documents/p80061/116524E.pdf">an annual increase in GHGs equivalent to 13 to 15 megatons of CO₂</a>. </p>
<p>In order to meet the goal of limiting global warming to 2°C — as per the Paris Agreement — an estimated 74 per cent of Canadian crude oil reserves must remain unexploited and <a href="https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/CarbonCaptureandStorageThesolutionfordeepemissionsreductions.pdf">advanced carbon capture and storage measures</a> would still be required. </p>
<h2>The path forward</h2>
<p>So how could Canada resolve the paradox between its Paris commitments and pipeline ownership? </p>
<p>As a start, all revenue that emerges from the pipeline should be put directly into an environmental fund. The fund would be used to support research and technology development as well as programs and infrastructure aimed at reducing the sources of GHGs and enhancing carbon sinks that store carbon dioxide.</p>
<p>In other words, the pipeline could fund emissions reduction strategies and initiatives that just might keep Canada on track with its Paris commitment. </p>
<p>Even if implemented effectively, using pipeline revenues to support GHG reduction strategies will not solve the country’s persistent ethical dilemmas or the mixed messages sent by the federal government on climate politics. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-complicated-history-of-building-pipelines-in-canada-97450">The complicated history of building pipelines in Canada</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The challenges are complex. They range from human health impacts to socio-economic benefits. They include concerns over access to markets and job creation. But also the cultural and trust issues associated with the pipeline’s impacts on Indigenous lands and local communities, and promises made by the Government of Canada in response to the Truth and Reconciliation Commission. </p>
<p>There are no definite answers, but one thing is clear — the Paris-pipeline paradox is unlikely to be reconciled anytime soon.</p>
<p><em>Members of the College of the Royal Society of Canada’s Working Group on Healthy Environment & Society assisted in the writing of this piece.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/97636/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Markus Hecker receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, Department of Fisheries and Oceans Canada and Genome Canada. He is a member of the College of the Royal Society of Canada and the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jackie Dawson receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council, MEOPAR, ArcticNet, Irving Shipbuilding, Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Arctic College/Nunavut Research Institute, Clear Seas, and Nunavut General Monitoring Program. </span></em></p>Canada wants to move towards a green economy and meet its Paris Agreement targets, but it has also just taken ownership of a pipeline. How can the federal government deal with this paradox?Markus Hecker, Professor and Canada Research Chair in Predictive Aquatic Toxicology, University of SaskatchewanJackie Dawson, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of OttawaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/485372015-10-09T05:28:58Z2015-10-09T05:28:58ZCould Canada hold the key to Britain’s rotten record on carbon capture?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/97746/original/image-20151008-9643-14ajdqt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Cooling enthusiasm. Is a key part of climate change mitigation going up in smoke?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/jonobass/3635530311/in/photolist-6xg3v6-6RGMBa-dQaanu-g7WgJg-5fiHAv-8xBJya-8xBGYn-64EAzN-8K1J94-8x19o-8x199-8x18Z-5gq9Wx">Jonathan Brennan</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>If you want to stop carbon entering the atmosphere and speeding up the process of climate change there are two things you can do: stop using fuels which produce it, <a href="https://theconversation.com/pumping-co2-underground-can-help-fight-climate-change-why-is-it-stuck-in-second-gear-37572">or capture it</a> before it does any damage. In a society which is only slowly moving away from its reliance on fossil fuels, that second part of the equation would seem to be utterly crucial. Odd then that carbon capture and storage in the UK has become such a sorry tale of delays, cancellations and uncertainty.</p>
<p>At the end of last month, North Yorkshire power station Drax announced it would not invest further in the planned <a href="http://www.endsreport.com/49869/white-rose-ccs-project-at-risk-as-drax-pulls-out">White Rose demonstration project</a> – a stand alone power plant which would have captured some 90% of the CO₂ emissions it produced, or about 2m tonnes per year. It is only the latest setback – and the company’s operations director Pete Emery blamed the government for the decision:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We are confident the technology we have developed has real potential, but have reluctantly taken a decision not to invest any further in the development of this project. The decision is based purely on a drastically different financial and regulatory environment and we must put the interests of the business and our shareholders first.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Commercialisation</h2>
<p>The rather uncomfortable truth here is that even though <a href="https://www.gov.uk/guidance/uk-carbon-capture-and-storage-government-funding-and-support">£1 billion of subsidies</a> have been available in the UK since 2007, not a single final investment decision to build a large-scale, integrated demonstration project has been taken in the UK – or anywhere else in Europe for that matter. And this is despite the fact that carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies are seen as a crucial part of climate mitigation strategies by many international organisations including <a href="http://www.iea.org/topics/ccs/">the International Energy Agency</a> and governments around the world, the UK government among them. </p>
<p>Critics of CCS point out that the technology merely <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421511007026">extends carbon lock-in</a> and that prolonging the use of fossil fuels such as coal has a number of other undesirable consequences such as causing air and water pollution at mining sites as well as mining accidents. But notwithstanding those doubts, projects such as Drax’s White Rose are supposed to be the next important step to demonstrate and eventually commercialise the technology. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/97752/original/image-20151008-9637-1060lap.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/97752/original/image-20151008-9637-1060lap.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/97752/original/image-20151008-9637-1060lap.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/97752/original/image-20151008-9637-1060lap.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/97752/original/image-20151008-9637-1060lap.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/97752/original/image-20151008-9637-1060lap.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/97752/original/image-20151008-9637-1060lap.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/97752/original/image-20151008-9637-1060lap.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Next in line?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/royaldutchshell/5484874307/in/photolist-9mFq3p-hYRtd-hyXUFN-i1NKj-eto7d-3NiCM-bM8AF-9v6Tec-6scJJk-26bdEk-eHPCJ-7om6rY-8eHzBK-azcd22-q2kwoR-iYAtwC-efFNyZ-jaijE-5pwKwr-i3LcM-bM8C9-61SWb4-7AX2km-8Tdrqw-nd5wtD-nd5ze9-nf8gQe-nd5y1S-nd5uQi-efFNP8-97fckD-w7BMrR-8Tak7Z-aoM2VZ-8TaveP-aqXp4R-7sm2Nk-4HS2Fj-nf5Rys-hYSjn-ebNcEu-czqHTA-AuVLw-8MCUGP-58t2EW-6H42xR-JjtJd-9aRWYg-7f7cgW-7f7cB5">Shell</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In 2010 the Department of Energy and Climate Change’s (DECC) aim was to ensure CCS was ready for commercial deployment by 2020, with a number of publicly-funded demonstration projects to learn from (<a href="https://ukccsrc.ac.uk/resources/ccs-publications/ccs-reports/clean-coal-industrial-strategy-development-carbon-capture-and">four in the UK and several others across Europe</a>) before that. The government will now struggle to get more than one demonstration project up and running by 2020 – not to speak of any commercial deployment. </p>
<p>The most likely project to receive funding might now be the Shell-operated <a href="http://www.shell.co.uk/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/peterhead-ccs-project.html">Peterhead project</a> which (alongside White Rose) had been selected as one of the two preferred bidders in the government’s re-launched CCS <a href="https://www.gov.uk/guidance/uk-carbon-capture-and-storage-government-funding-and-support#ccs-commercialisation-competition">commercialisation competition in March 2013</a>.</p>
<h2>Haven’t we been here before?</h2>
<p>The Drax decision on the White Rose project reminds us of other frustrating moments in carbon capture’s history. During the first government competition for a CCS demonstration project, all the bidders eventually withdrew. The Longannet project in Scotland was the last competitor, before the consortium consisting of ScottishPower, National Grid and Shell eventually pulled out in October 2011 after higher than anticipated costs and lengthy negotiations with the energy and climate change department and the Treasury.</p>
<p>So why is it so difficult to get large-scale integrated carbon capture demonstration projects off the ground?</p>
<p>We tried to <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162515002723">answer this question</a> by looking at two examples of proposed projects: Longannet in the UK (which did not go ahead) and Quest in Canada (which is currently under construction). Our research suggests that the answer lies in a complex interplay of political and economic factors. </p>
<p>We found that, in the UK context, several factors prevented the Longannet project from going ahead. For a start, there was a preference for a competition process with a narrow focus on <a href="http://www.fossiltransition.org/pages/post_combustion_capture_/128.php">post-combustion coal technology</a>; there were disagreements between the department and the Treasury during the negotiations with the consortium – and there was the fact that utilities like ScottishPower have a number of other options for decarbonisation, such as investing in renewables. Combined, these factors mean firms find it hard to justify investments in carbon capture. </p>
<h2>Alberta’s experience</h2>
<p>By contrast, in Canada, the overriding concern for the Quest project is to use carbon capture to decrease the <a href="http://www.shell.ca/en/aboutshell/our-business-tpkg/upstream/oil-sands/quest.html">carbon footprint of tar sand production</a> in order to prevent a potential threat to international market access (through the <a href="http://www.energy.ca.gov/low_carbon_fuel_standard/">Californian low-carbon fuel standard</a>). The Quest project is attempting to reduce the carbon footprint of bitumen processing connected with the tar sand production to similar levels of that of “normal” oil and is therefore of major strategic importance for the companies involved as well as the province of Alberta.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/97753/original/image-20151008-9688-x99qro.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/97753/original/image-20151008-9688-x99qro.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/97753/original/image-20151008-9688-x99qro.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/97753/original/image-20151008-9688-x99qro.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/97753/original/image-20151008-9688-x99qro.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/97753/original/image-20151008-9688-x99qro.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=521&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/97753/original/image-20151008-9688-x99qro.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=521&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/97753/original/image-20151008-9688-x99qro.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=521&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">One method for CCS used by SaskPower in Canada.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/saskpower/20797776173/in/photolist-xFQ3gP-iCntZE-nhhTmq-nkkM1x-nbcFic-kUQWDp-oTYWZF-64CgML-anYULW-7goKzx-iNv7xU-ar57jt-psQiis-o6iFfJ-puAji4-nSdKcb-77WLED-uReEux-uQYPjF-ncAgQ9-odHBwY-7eNET7-7eNEV5-74kzLn-iu9UMj-77WLzX-781FzS-781Fqb-4MJjiM-pdpnJN-pdpm8b-pdoSVN-puBjPx-puBid6-puBgV6-pdpdAh-pdnQhn-pdoE67-pdobnU-psQNiw-puAB8M-pdo6Hd-pdnEUK-psQF6L-puSMkT-puArEt-pdnwX2-pdnUcY-pdnt5H-puQPrY">SaskPower</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In 2014, the energy sector accounted for approximately 28% of Alberta’s total GDP. Energy resource exports to the US alone account for 75% of its total commodity exports. These are very strong incentives to invest in carbon capture and storage whereas the private benefits of such investments in the UK are much less clear, especially in the absence of a strong carbon price signal.</p>
<p>All of this suggests that the Department of Energy and Climate Change needs to sit down and honestly analyse the current situation of the technology in the UK – and decide what role it should play in decarbonising the UK economy. This assessment should take into consideration the progress made with renewables as well as the (lack of) progress with nuclear power. If CCS should play an important role (for example in the industrial rather than the power sector), then decisions need to be taken on which incentives need to be provided to enable private-sector investment in carbon capture and storage demonstration projects and push towards subsequent commercialisation. </p>
<p>Simply to keep going as we are will not lead to commercialisation anytime soon. While the ambition was to lead the world in carbon capture development, this now seems an unrealistic prospect given limited progress while other <a href="http://www.saskpowerccs.com/newsandmedia/latest-news/canada-switches-on-worlds-first-carbon-capture-power-plant/">countries such as Canada are pushing ahead</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/48537/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Florian Kern received funding from NERC for the UKERC project ‘Carbon Capture and Storage — Realising the Potential?’ (award numbers NE/H013555/1, NE/H013326/1 and NE/H013474/1) as well as funding from the ESRC for the project ‘The politics of low carbon innovation’ (RES-062-23-2326). </span></em></p>A technology designed to reduce the effect of fossil fuels on the climate has received £1 bln in subsidies and has nothing to show for it.Florian Kern, Co-Director Sussex Energy Group, Senior Lecturer, SPRU, University of Sussex Business School, University of SussexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/421672015-05-26T01:54:15Z2015-05-26T01:54:15ZCanada’s climate target is a smokescreen and full of loopholes<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/82814/original/image-20150525-32572-1fvomea.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Increasing emissions from Canada's oil and gas sector will make Canada's post-2020 pledge very difficult to achieve. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/kk/6855367701/">kris krüg/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>This month Canada’s federal government revealed the contribution that Canada intends to make towards a new global climate deal – 30% below 2005 levels by 2030. </p>
<p>On first glance, the target appears to be stronger than most observers of Canadian climate policy would have expected. Prime Minister Stephen Harper had earlier declared that Canada’s contribution would be “<a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/harper-says-canada-s-emission-targets-unlikely-to-be-exactly-the-same-as-u-s-1.3047002">of similar levels of ambition to other major industrialised countries</a>”.</p>
<p>However, closer scrutiny reveals that the target has major flaws. It is very unlikely that Canada will see a 30% reduction of domestic greenhouse gas emissions as a result of the pledge. </p>
<h2>What’s in the target</h2>
<p>Compared to 2005, the target would reduce emissions by 220 million tonnes of CO<sub>2</sub>-equivalent by 2030. </p>
<p>Canada <a href="http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents/Canada/1/INDC%20-%20Canada%20-%20English.pdf">plans to do this</a> through fuel efficiency regulations, regulating hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs; less than 1% of Canadian emissions), limiting methane emissions from the oil and gas sector and addressing non-CO<sub>2</sub> emissions from natural gas-fired power plants. All of these are important steps.</p>
<p>The cover note of the pledge also points to the fact that, in a federation such as Canada, every level of government has to play its part. Indeed, as we will see, there is a strong expectation on the part of the federal government that it is in fact the provincial governments that will achieve most of these promised reductions. </p>
<h2>Creative accounting</h2>
<p>Canada’s submission also specifies a new method of accounting for emissions from forestry and land use, which decreases the reduction Canada needs to make.</p>
<p>In previous years, the stated intention was to use a so-called reference level approach (which I discussed <a href="http://rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/grahamsaul/2012/08/creative-accounting-not-climate-progress-behind-kent%E2%80%99s-%E2%80%9Cprogress%E2%80%9D-">here</a>) to calculate the sector’s contribution to the Copenhagen target. This was last estimated to result in <a href="http://ec.gc.ca/Publications/E998D465-B89F-4E0F-8327-01D5B0D66885/ETR_E-2014.pdf">19 million tonnes worth of credits</a> in 2020.</p>
<p>Meanwhile the new approach is estimated to yield a much higher credit, <a href="http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/canada.html">around 63 million tonnes</a>, without any change in climate policy. </p>
<p>Further, <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/rising-carbon-emissions-from-oilsands-a-unique-challenge-federal-cabinet-told-1.3079444">a secret internal briefing memo</a> prepared for the federal cabinet and seen by this author, estimates that the current oil price slump and the associated slow down in economic activity in some sectors, especially oil and gas, will result in a 30-million-tonne reduction in 2030 emissions, again without any actual federal climate policy. </p>
<p>Finally, the indication to use international offsets is a fundamental shift in the Harper government’s approach – Harper himself <a href="http://www.straightgoods.ca/ViewFeature7.cfm?REF=308">called international offsets “hot air”</a>. When Canada withdrew from the Kyoto Protocol <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-pulls-out-of-kyoto-protocol-1.999072">it was hinted</a> that the reluctance of the government to meet its targets by purchasing international credits was a main reason for the decision. </p>
<p>In the previously-mentioned cabinet memo, the envisioned volume of offset purchases in 2030 is pegged at 33 million tonnes of CO<sub>2</sub>-equivalent – again without any changes in Canada’s domestic emissions profile. It is important to remember that international cooperation on climate change mitigation – and offset projects can represent such cooperation – is a crucial component of the overall response to climate change. </p>
<p>However, most of this cooperation must be realized in addition to, and not instead of, stringent domestic mitigation. </p>
<p>In total, of the 220 million tonnes of CO<sub>2</sub>-equivalent of emission reductions implied by the 30% target, up to 126 million tonnes of CO<sub>2</sub>-equivalent can therefore already be achieved without any actual changes to domestic climate policy.</p>
<h2>Leaving provinces to go it alone</h2>
<p>The current Canadian government has elected to pursue a sector-by-sector regulatory approach to climate policy, rather than, for example a market-based economy-wide one. </p>
<p>In practice, however, the only sectors regulated so far are <a href="http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents/Canada/1/INDC%20-%20Canada%20-%20English.pdf">vehicle fuel efficiency</a> and coal-fired power generation, with a standard that will <a href="http://www.pembina.org/blog/647">not be fully implemented until 2062</a>. </p>
<p>At the same time, the Province of Ontario has already <a href="http://news.ontario.ca/opo/en/2013/11/ontario---first-place-in-north-america-to-end-coal-fired-power.html">completely phased out coal fired generation</a>, from a share of <a href="http://eco.climatenetwork.org/cop19-eco10-2/">27% of electricity generation</a> in the early 2000s, highlighting a disconnect between federal and provincial policy approaches to climate change. </p>
<p>Canada’s Commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable Development, a part of the office of Canada’s Auditor General, <a href="http://www.oag-bvg.gc.ca/internet/English/oss_20141202_e_40004.html">concluded</a> that there is strong evidence that Canada will fail to meet its 2020 target because of the federal government’s failure so far to “have an overall plan that maps out how Canada will achieve this target … or to provide the necessary coordination so that all levels of government … can achieve the national target”. </p>
<p>Instead of providing such coordinating role, the Canadian federal government is instead heavily leaning on the provincial governments to implement effective climate policy of their own. </p>
<p>In fact, in their briefing note to cabinet, federal bureaucrats estimated that as much as 89 million tonnes of the total 220-million-tonne Canadian reduction target could come from provincial efforts. </p>
<p>However, the most striking example of the sector-by-sector approach’s limitations is the fact that the federal government has repeatedly announced its intention (see <a href="http://www.theinformationdaily.com/2008/03/11/canadian-government-delivers-details-of-greenhouse-gas-regulatory-framework">here</a>, <a href="http://www.nationalpost.com/rss/Prentice+tells+sands+clean/2509815/story.html">here</a>, <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/oil-and-gas-industry-emission-rules-still-not-ready-from-ottawa-1.1343855">here</a> and <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/environment-minister-aglukkaq-vows-to-fulfill-2020-carbon-promise/article15483071/">here</a>) to regulate the oil and gas sector since 2006 and has now dropped any plans for policies to address greenhouse gas emissions from this sector.</p>
<p>Environment Minister Leona Aglukkaq highlighted these intentions <a href="https://www.ec.gc.ca/default.asp?lang=En&n=FFE36B6D-1&news=E691AE65-00D0-4DF2-9245-DA3AD224E2CE">in her speech</a> at the 2013 United Nations climate summit in Warsaw, but during <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/leona-aglukkaq-s-un-climate-speech-doesn-t-mention-oil-and-gas-emissions-1.2775407?cmp=rss">her speech</a> at the UN climate talks the following year, any references to her government’s intentions with regards to oil and gas were absent.</p>
<h2>Oil sands missing in action</h2>
<p>This brings us to the third major flaw in Canada’s INDC, the failure to address the fastest growing source of greenhouse gas emissions, the oil sands. </p>
<p>Oil sands emissions are expected to increase fourfold between 2005 and 2030 (by about 102 million tonnes), but there are no plans to regulate the sector. </p>
<p>As the fastest growing source of emissions, the oil sands represent an important test of the sincerity of the government’s intentions with regards to climate policy. </p>
<p>It is implausible to assume an emissions trajectory for Canada which is in line with global emissions pathways that are compatible with holding warming to 2C or less in which oil sands emissions are not addressed. </p>
<p>In fact, in recent years emissions growth in the oil and gas sector more than cancelled out any emissions reductions undertaken in other sectors of the economy. This included Ontario’s coal phase-out which is routinely characterized as <a href="http://news.ontario.ca/opo/en/2013/11/ontario---first-place-in-north-america-to-end-coal-fired-power.html">“the single largest greenhouse gas reduction initiative in North America”</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/82752/original/image-20150523-32575-1onq4o0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/82752/original/image-20150523-32575-1onq4o0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/82752/original/image-20150523-32575-1onq4o0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/82752/original/image-20150523-32575-1onq4o0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/82752/original/image-20150523-32575-1onq4o0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/82752/original/image-20150523-32575-1onq4o0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/82752/original/image-20150523-32575-1onq4o0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Projected Changes in Canadian Greenhouse Gas Emissions through 2030. (Data Sources: Environment Canada: Emissions Trends 2014 and First Biennial Report)
Note: some of the expected growth of the oilsands sector is masked by an expected decline of conventional oil and gas extraction.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Stopping free-riders</h2>
<p>In aggregate, these observations suggest the Canadian pledge will result in much fewer real emissions reductions and long term climate and energy policy intervention than a quick glance at the top-level figure of 30% would suggest. </p>
<p>It is consistent with the track record of the current Canadian government whose stated approach to climate policy has been <a href="http://www.oag-bvg.gc.ca/internet/English/oss_20141202_e_40004.html">characterized by the Auditor General’s office</a> as failing to meet the current reduction target for 2020. </p>
<p>In a federation, the minimum role of a federal government is to ensure fairness between its subnational entities and overall ambition of the country by restricting free-riding by parts of the country or sectors of the economy and by providing a common framework of minimal standards. </p>
<p>Judging from Canada’s pledge and the plans and considerations associated with it, this is not the approach of Canada’s federal government. Instead it appears intent to erect a smokescreen to shield the view from its unwillingness to address emissions from the largest growing source of emissions, the oil sands.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/42167/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christian Holz receives funding from the Canadian Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC). He is the former Executive Director and a current member of the board of directors of Climate Action Network Canada - Résau action climat Canada and advises the organization on international climate policy.</span></em></p>This month Canada revealed its post-2020 climate target as 30% below 2005 levels by 2030. But current policies make it unlikely Canada will achieve the target within the country.Christian Holz, SSHRC Postdoctoral Fellow, School of Political Studies, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of OttawaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/329292014-10-22T09:42:12Z2014-10-22T09:42:12ZKeystone XL debate: how pipeline politics divide Nebraska<p>In Nebraska, the intensity of the Keystone XL debate is second only to that over the chance that the <a href="http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/107775/nebraska-may-give-the-big-ten-its-best-shot">Nebraska Cornhuskers</a> will win the Big Ten football championship. Raging for several years now, controversy over the pipeline has bounced from the governor to the legislature, the state Supreme Court and back again, with the final decision <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2014/06/al-gore-keystone-pipeline-obama-107998.html">going to President Obama</a> who has not yet announced a decision. In the end, all the Nebraska politics and posturing may be for nothing.</p>
<p>Proposed in September 2008, the pipeline would start in Alberta, Canada, enter the United States in Montana and link with an existing pipeline at Steele City, Nebraska. It would carry 830,000 barrels a day of diluted bitumen (a semisolid petroleum product combined with natural gas) across 275 miles of Nebraska farm and ranch land, traversing more than 500 private properties. The bitumen’ destination is the refineries of the Texas and Louisiana gulf coast, where it will be transformed into refined products to meet US demand.</p>
<h2>Strange bedfellows</h2>
<p>The politics of Nebraska, a deep red state, have been temporally scrambled by the unusual coalitions formed to support or oppose the pipeline. It is not a shock that the business community, Republican Governor Dave Heineman, and a majority of the legislature — officially nonpartisan but mostly Republican — have teamed up in support. What is surprising is the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/28/business/energy-environment/afl-cio-backs-keystone-oil-pipeline-if-indirectly.html?_r=0">addition of some labor unions</a> to this mix. Meanwhile, environmentalists and Democratic activists have joined with typically more conservative farmers and ranchers to oppose the pipeline.</p>
<p>This opposition, led by Nebraska political activist <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/18/magazine/jane-kleeb-vs-the-keystone-pipeline.html">Jane Kleeb</a>, relies on a populist approach that mixes reasonable concerns, such as possible pollution of the <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/keystone-xl-pipeline-may-threaten-aquifer-that-irrigates-much-of-the-central-us/2012/08/06/7bf0215c-d4db-11e1-a9e3-c5249ea531ca_story.html">Ogallala aquifer</a>, alongside disregard of landowner concerns, with bombastic arguments that are a stretch at best. For example, at a public meeting last winter, a feedlot owner asked the crowd what they thought he should do with 10,000 dead cows, which he apparently believes could result from constructing the pipeline next to his property. This even though Nebraska already has <a href="https://theconversation.com/my-college-classroom-crusade-to-teach-marvel-to-undergrads-32200">15,000 miles of hazardous materials</a> pipeline under the aquifer, including two delivering diluted bitumen from Canada.</p>
<p>Proponents believe the pipeline will <a href="http://keystone-xl.com/about/jobs-and-economic-benefits/">create jobs</a> and improve American energy security by easing the flow of oil from a friendly neighbor. They note that the Alberta deposits have an estimated <a href="http://oilsands.alberta.ca/resource.html">170 billion barrels of oil</a>, enough to satisfy US demand for at least 30 years.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/62096/original/gqz8z4yd-1413555886.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/62096/original/gqz8z4yd-1413555886.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/62096/original/gqz8z4yd-1413555886.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/62096/original/gqz8z4yd-1413555886.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/62096/original/gqz8z4yd-1413555886.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/62096/original/gqz8z4yd-1413555886.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/62096/original/gqz8z4yd-1413555886.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">All quiet at the Nebraska State Capitol.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The issue now finds itself in the <a href="http://nebraskalegislature.gov/FloorDocs/102/PDF/Slip/LB1161.pdf">Nebraska Supreme Court</a>, where Justices recently heard arguments on the constitutionality of the pipeline. The bill, passed in 2012, gave the governor, rather than the Public Service Commission, authority to approve the pipeline. Pipeline proponents applaud this, while opponents believe the commission has jurisdiction and the law is improper.</p>
<h2>Impact at the ballot box</h2>
<p>Those on both sides of the pipeline battle have gone toe to toe for several years. For all the acrimony, though, the issue is having little impact on politics.</p>
<p>Political positions in the top two state races, both open seats, break along predictable lines, with the Republican candidates for Governor (<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-30/buffetts-v-ricketts-in-nebraska-billionaire-backed-race.html">Pete Ricketts</a>) and US senator (<a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/govbeat/wp/2014/05/13/14-things-to-know-about-ben-sasse-nebraskas-next-senator/">Ben Sasse</a>) supporting the pipeline and the Democrats (<a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2014/09/05/can_democrat_chuck_hassebrook_win_neb_governor_race_123865.html">Chuck Hassebrook</a> and <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/05/13/dave-domina-primary_n_5320260.html">Dave Domina</a>) opposed. </p>
<p>In the campaign for the house seat that represents Omaha, located far from the pipeline route, both candidates support construction, as do a majority of Omahans. And just last spring, 29 of the 49 members of the Nebraska Legislature, including a mix of Democrats and Republican, <a href="http://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/1057486/keystone-letter.txt">signed a letter to Secretary of State John Kerry</a> stating, “We support the project and urge approval of the pending permit application for an international border crossing for the pipeline.”</p>
<p>So while the coalitions of both sides on the issue have been interesting and sometimes unusual, the impact on key elections is negligible.</p>
<p>And will there be any impact on President Obama, who has the final say? Probably not. He is a lame duck who will shortly enter his final two years in office. Nebraska is a small, red state where the president has a low approval rating, making it less likely he will be concerned about opposition. In Omaha, the only part of the state where he and his fellow Democrats enjoy any substantial support, pipeline construction is relatively popular.</p>
<p>After all is said and done, the Nebraska fight over the Keystone Pipeline will have been thought provoking, but it will have little long-term impact on Nebraska politics. It will continue on for a while after a final decision, bringing lawsuits over construction, land prices, and the like. But in the end, the politicians, corporations, unions, non-profits, trade associations, and lobbyists will move on, prepared to fight another day for another cause.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/32929/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Landow received a U.S. Department of Education grant (2009) and a grant from Sherwood Foundation (Susie Buffett) (2012) to fund the Nebraska Civic Leadership Program, which allows Omaha high school students to study political science and go to Washington DC every summer
He is a current Board Member, Planned Parenthood Voters of Nebraska; former Executive Director, Nebraska Democratic Party; former staff member to a U.S. Member of Congress; former Chief of Staff to the Mayor of Omaha.
</span></em></p>In Nebraska, the intensity of the Keystone XL debate is second only to that over the chance that the Nebraska Cornhuskers will win the Big Ten football championship. Raging for several years now, controversy…Paul Landow, Professor of Political Science, University of Nebraska OmahaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.