tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/tasmania-election-2014-8910/articlesTasmania election 2014 – The Conversation2014-03-16T23:50:44Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/242182014-03-16T23:50:44Z2014-03-16T23:50:44ZTasmania election aftermath: what now for the Apple Isle?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/44021/original/3mpkhy2z-1395004929.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Victory by the Liberals in Saturday's Tasmania state election was widely anticipated, but what are the challenges now for Will Hodgman's new government?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Rob Blakers</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>On Saturday, the winds of change took on the proportions of a Bass Strait gale to deliver the Liberal Party an <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/will-hodgmans-crushing-win-ends-labors-16year-rule-in-tasmania/story-e6frgczx-1226855670566">emphatic victory</a> in the Tasmanian state election. The Liberals, under long-serving leader Will Hodgman, <a href="https://theconversation.com/tasmania-and-sa-election-results-24450">secured</a> over 51% of the primary vote and an elusive parliamentary majority.</p>
<p>The Liberal victory was widely anticipated. After 16 years in power, Labor’s term in government had run its course. Despite a stoic effort as leader, premier Lara Giddings was always going to fall victim to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/state-of-the-states-tasmania-17318">difficult economic conditions</a> facing the island state. </p>
<p>When combined with deep internal divisions within her own party and the fact that the Tasmanian Liberals managed to sustain a disciplined and extremely effective <a href="https://theconversation.com/prime-minister-abbott-the-master-of-opposition-gets-his-chance-17855">“Abbottesque”</a> campaign against the Labor-Green minority government, the result was almost inevitable.</p>
<p>Saturday’s result may never have been in doubt but the nature and magnitude of the Liberal victory poses challenges for all sides of politics including, perhaps ironically, premier-elect Will Hodgman.</p>
<h2>Results</h2>
<p>Contrary to some expectations (not least their own), the Green vote was <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/tas-election-2014/results/">down over 8%</a> (to 13.5%). The Greens are likely to lose two, possibly three, of their five seats in parliament. Whereas polls had suggested that the Greens, with their clearly defined and committed constituency, would maintain their vote – in contrast to Labor – this was not the case. </p>
<p>Where these Green votes went on Saturday is something of a mystery, and will be of interest to Green and ALP strategists alike. The result may see the Greens temper their enthusiasm for seizing the reins of government, but there is little doubt that they will remain an important part of the Tasmanian political landscape and will ensure that the new government can’t take parliament for granted.</p>
<p>As anticipated, Saturday was a dark day for Labor in Tasmania. Beyond the poor poll result, the task of rebuilding will be all the more difficult given the party lacks a clear constituency and is hopelessly wedged on many issues such as forestry. To add insult to injury, it appears likely that the ALP also lost its next generation of leaders in the rout.</p>
<p>The key problem facing Labor nationally, and even more acutely in Tasmania, is that its political base is under threat from both left and right. The progressive vote is increasingly turning to the Greens. Meanwhile, disillusioned, socially conservative blue-collar voters are turning to the Liberal Party and perhaps, in protest, to the Palmer United Party. </p>
<p>The Tasmanian Liberals’ task of capturing the “Howard battlers” was made easier by the Labor-Green partnership. Clearly the Tasmanian Labor Party’s faux <a href="https://theconversation.com/pulp-mill-politics-set-to-dominate-tasmanian-election-22112">11th-hour separation</a> from the Greens was not going to overcome this fundamental challenge, especially when Giddings had been a champion of progressive issues such as <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tasmanias-gay-marriage-bill-clears-first-hurdle-20120830-253ig.html">same-sex marriage</a>.</p>
<p>The task of renewal and rebuilding the ALP was also dealt a blow. David O’Byrne and Brian Wightman, two of the rising stars of the Tasmanian ALP, lost their seats. O’Byrne may yet receive a political lifeline in the form of a casual vacancy should Giddings resign from parliament, but this would be an inauspicious start for a new Labor leader.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.themercury.com.au/news/tasmania-state-election-2014/white-shapes-up-as-key-to-the-campaign/story-fnl83ie0-1226841536574">Rebecca White</a>, the young, first-term Labor member from the rural seat of Lyons, was perhaps the standout candidate of the campaign. But given the challenge of leading the ALP over the next four years, it would be in both her and Labor’s interests to look elsewhere.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/44022/original/knbrgv28-1395006270.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/44022/original/knbrgv28-1395006270.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/44022/original/knbrgv28-1395006270.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/44022/original/knbrgv28-1395006270.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/44022/original/knbrgv28-1395006270.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/44022/original/knbrgv28-1395006270.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/44022/original/knbrgv28-1395006270.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">To add insult to injury for the ALP and vanquished premier Lara Giddings, it appears likely that the party lost its next generation of leaders on Saturday.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Rob Blakers</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The forestry challenge</h2>
<p>Perhaps the greatest challenge awaits Hodgman and his new ministerial team. He has clearly proved that he is resilient, disciplined and effective in opposition. What is less clear is whether he possesses the more subtle and elusive skills required to be an effective premier. </p>
<p>Prosecuting an unrelenting critique of government from the opposition benches is one thing, but articulating a viable vision for Tasmania and implementing policies to achieve this goal is a much more demanding task.</p>
<p>The key is here is managing community expectations and being honest with voters about any state government’s limited capacity to achieve significant economic and social change amid overwhelming national and international forces. Voters in Tasmania want a government that underpromises and overdelivers. </p>
<p>Time will tell whether Hodgman can master the subtle art of political leadership. But we won’t have to wait long to find out whether he is up to the task, given that challenges will come thick and fast in the coming months.</p>
<p>Forestry will be the first test for the incoming government. The issue here is that the Liberals have committed to <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-13/forestry-shift3a-opposition-leader-will-hodgman-to-sit-down-wi/5317328">tearing up the forestry peace deal</a> brokered between conservation groups and industry representatives. </p>
<p>This strategy appeals to those who blame the significant decline in the forestry sector over the past decade (it now accounts for about 2% of Tasmania’s economic output) on a lack of timber supply as a result of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-05/abbott-timber-industry-dinner-forestry-council-forest-locked-up/5299046">“locking up the forests”</a>. </p>
<p>However, the reality is that forestry’s demise is largely due to falling demand in world markets, especially for timber that lacks Forest Stewardship Council endorsement. That major industry players and the international consumers of Tasmanian forestry products have joined conservation groups in urging the Liberals to reconsider their forestry policy adds weight to this argument.</p>
<p>The bigger picture here is that forestry is yet another example of government making promises it can’t deliver. A state government can’t hold out against international market forces. </p>
<p>The subtle art of political leadership is to explain the challenges facing the polity and the limits of government power while crafting strategies designed to ensure the communities that governments serve have the resources and strategies to adapt to the ever-changing circumstances they confront.</p>
<p>Despite its diminishing economic significance, forestry in Tasmania may yet claim another political scalp.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/24218/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Eccleston does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>On Saturday, the winds of change took on the proportions of a Bass Strait gale to deliver the Liberal Party an emphatic victory in the Tasmanian state election. The Liberals, under long-serving leader…Richard Eccleston, Professor, Political Science , University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/237152014-03-11T03:19:49Z2014-03-11T03:19:49ZTasmania election: what is the Hare-Clark system?<p>After trading blows around predictable topics, the only issue of consensus in a recent <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-27/tasmanian-political-leaders-face-off-in-televised-debate/5288722?section=tas">televised debate</a> between the leaders of the Tasmanian Liberal and Labor parties, Will Hodgman and Lara Giddings, was that minority government is not an option ahead of this Saturday’s state election.</p>
<p>Perhaps to emphasise this stance, members of other parties were excluded from the debate. This is despite the Greens sitting just 5.4% behind Labor in a <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/liberals-on-track-to-take-back-tasmania-according-to-new-reachtel-poll/story-fnbsqrus-1226848009897">recent poll</a> and expectations the Palmer United Party will pick up one or possibly two seats, depending on the flow of preferences.</p>
<p>The reason minor parties – and the associated prospect of minority government – represent such a realistic threat in Tasmania is the Hare-Clark system that is used to elect the state’s lower house.</p>
<p>Under the system as it applies in Tasmania, there are five electorates which elect five members each. To be elected a candidate requires enough votes to fill a “quota”, or 16.67% of the vote. Candidates who do not gain a quota have their votes redistributed according to preferences. Candidates who receive more than a full quota also have their excess votes redistributed. The process continues until all five positions are filled.</p>
<h2>The Hare-Clark system</h2>
<p>Driven by the failure of a number of progressive bills relating to female suffrage, referendum and disenfranchisement, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Inglis_Clark">Andrew Inglis Clark</a>, who introduced the system to Tasmania as state attorney-general, saw electoral reform as a way to modernise a staid and conservative Tasmanian establishment in the early 20th century. </p>
<p>Philosopher John Stuart Mill also supported the system, first devised by British political scientist Thomas Hare. Mill <a href="http://www.gutenberg.org/files/10378/10378-8.txt">believed</a> that proportional parliamentary reform would stop the defect that enabled:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>…the strongest party to exclude all weaker parties from making their opinions heard in the assembly of the nation.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Complex but fair</h2>
<p>Hare-Clark often invites <a href="http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/tasmania_needs_a_system_that_produces_stronger_leaders/">criticism</a> because of its complex counting process, but the basics are clear. </p>
<p>A number of factors are designed to reduce the influence of parties and factions becoming too powerful. There is no ticketed voting, so candidates are usually elected as a consequence of name and local visibility rather than party. </p>
<p>This also has the less useful effect of embedding low-level dynastic politics. For example, the current House of Assembly has a brother and sister combination and two sons of former premiers, while Hodgman’s father, uncle and grandfather were all members of Tasmanian parliament.</p>
<p>Party influence is further mitigated by a ban on how-to-vote cards, which places the burden of decision-making on the voter rather than party preferences. This can lead to peculiar outcomes, for example allowing 27-year-old Rebecca White to defeat 24-year Labor veteran David Llewellyn in 2010.</p>
<h2>Highly representative</h2>
<p>Hare-Clark is also highly representative. In the 2011 New South Wales state election, for example, parties and candidates outside the big three parties (Liberal, Labor and the Nationals) obtained 23.3% of the primary vote for a total of four seats out of 93 with its single member district system. The National Party gained only 12.6% of the primary vote, yet won 18 seats. </p>
<p>However, in the 2010 Tasmanian state election, the Greens received 21.3% of the popular vote and 20% of seats (five), while the Liberals received 39% of the vote and 40% of the seats (ten). Labor won 36.9% and the same number of seats as the Liberals.</p>
<h2>Minority governments are often successful</h2>
<p>An argument for majority party government is that minorities can wield disproportionate power. This is a weak argument. Few concessions have been made in Tasmania over the past 25 years to minority partners.</p>
<p>At the same time, over the past electoral cycle, the Greens were handed difficult ministries (including corrections, human services and education) where they had few ideological differences with Labor. In fact, Greens leader and education minister Nick McKim was a useful tool for Labor to test and absorb unpopular sentiment around <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-07-04/we-got-it-wrong-mckim-backflips-on-school-closures/2782028">school closures</a>. </p>
<p>The paradox of Hare-Clark is best described by political scientist Richard Herr, who says:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Hare-Clark … is more highly supported when it does not achieve its philosophical aims than when it does. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>The bottom line is that Hare-Clark works. More symbolically, Hare-Clark is a thoroughly modern system that is highly representative and one that should be admired in the face of rising apathy towards Western electoral practice.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/23715/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wayne McLean does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>After trading blows around predictable topics, the only issue of consensus in a recent televised debate between the leaders of the Tasmanian Liberal and Labor parties, Will Hodgman and Lara Giddings, was…Wayne McLean, PhD Researcher, Politics and International Relations Program, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/233502014-02-26T03:27:44Z2014-02-26T03:27:44ZTasmania election: a spiritless campaign may be a good thing<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/42307/original/456qj24z-1393212217.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">There has been an uninspiring and vacuous lead-up to the Tasmanian election, likely to be won by the Will Hodgman-led Liberal opposition. Why?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Rob Blakers</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A YouTube video appeared earlier this month with a suspiciously familiar Tasmanian candidate named “Fast Freddy”. The video perfectly encapsulates <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poe's_law">Poe’s law</a>, which states that it is impossible to distinguish between satire and reality.</p>
<p>The mustachioed “man’s man” recycles a number of well-worn Tasmanian political tropes: how the <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/national/tasmanian-pulp-mill-back-as-election-issue-20140118-311rr.html">Tamar Valley pulp mill</a> will pull the state out of its current woes; that <a href="http://www.mtwellingtoncablecar.com/">development on Mt Wellington</a> is essential to the tourism industry; and how <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-10-31/hodgman-tells-business-meeting-minority-government-not-an-option/5060338">minority government</a> is the root of all evil. The satirical uncertainty fades away only when he calls for a feral cull for eco-terrorists.</p>
<p>Does Fast Freddy lean left or right? It’s hard to tell. This symbolises the political androgyny and ideological void now found in Tasmanian politics ahead of the March 15 state election.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/NS4NNnxPf3A?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">‘Fast Freddy’</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The lead-up to the election has been uninspiring and vacuous. The electorate seems bored too. Coverage has focused on a few slanging matches about the National Broadband Network (NBN): a debate where even the state Liberal Party has <a href="http://www.itwire.com/it-policy-news/govenrment-tech-policy/63173-tasmanian-liberal-leader-says-nbn-could-cost-the-election">quietly agreed</a> with Labor that the federal broadband plan is flawed. </p>
<p>Labor looks set for defeat and exudes an air of resignation. Psephologist <a href="http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/02/reachtel-pup-surge-has-landed.html">Kevin Bonham</a> predicts a parliament made up of 13 Liberal MPs, seven Labor MPs, four Greens and one representative from the Palmer United Party. Compared to the dynamism of previous campaigns, 2014 seems mundane and uneventful.</p>
<h2>Benign issues</h2>
<p>The dull state of affairs has come about because many of the traditional election issues have become benign. For example, the Greens have lost both lustre and enthusiasm as many of the divisive controversies around logging and the environment are seemingly resolved. </p>
<p>Forestry company Gunns – the enemy of Tasmanian environmentalists – is in <a href="http://gunns.com.au/Content/uploads/documents/ASX%20RELEASE%20-%202012%2009%2025%20-%20Appointment%20of%20Voluntary%20Administrator.pdf">receivership</a>. And while the <a href="http://www.forestsagreement.tas.gov.au/about-tfa/tasmanian-forests-agreement-2012-signatories-agreement/">Tasmanian Forests Agreement</a> has collapsed, the antagonism between groups such as the Wilderness Society and Timber Communities Australia has subsided. </p>
<p>As a result, Tasmania lacks the clear <a href="http://janda.org/c24/Readings/Lipset&Rokkan/Lipset&Rokkan.htm">political divides</a> that defined earlier decades in the state’s politics. The Liberals are counting on the working-class vote to push them across the line. In contrast, pro-Green bumper stickers now adorn expensive cars in Lower Sandy Bay, despite its reputation as a Liberal stronghold. </p>
<p>Labor voters, now mainly drawn from Tasmania’s <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@nrp.nsf/Latestproducts/6Industry12007-2011?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=6&issue=2007-2011&num=&view=">large public sector</a>, will reliably turn out in numbers, even if they are a little embarrassed by their party’s performance. Veteran Labor candidate Julian Amos’ slogan is <a href="http://www.julianamos.com.au/index.php/campaign/114-julian-amos-you-can-vote-for-labor">“You can vote for Labor”</a>, sounding more like an apologetic excuse than a pitch.</p>
<h2>Tasmania in perspective</h2>
<p>Let’s put things in perspective. The Tasmanian economy is in trouble, but not in terminal decline. It’s certainly better than in the mid-1990s when unemployment reached 12.5%. Tourism is doing relatively well too, but business should admit that Tasmania is unlikely to be the “new” New Zealand. </p>
<p>Industry also faces this middling fate. Tasmania is never going to be a resources hub and enjoy the revenues streaming in, as is happening in Western Australia or Queensland. </p>
<p>Yet despite the constant anti-development incantation, less exciting industries such as zinc production chug along only kilometres from the centre of Hobart, polluting the Derwent River. This is an issue strangely absent from the public debate even though the Nyrstar works is the state’s biggest exporter. </p>
<p>From this absence, one can draw the inference that many public political battles are largely symbolic rather than practical, serving the interests of parties rather than constituents.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/41856/original/nt5gbnvk-1392756983.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/41856/original/nt5gbnvk-1392756983.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41856/original/nt5gbnvk-1392756983.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41856/original/nt5gbnvk-1392756983.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41856/original/nt5gbnvk-1392756983.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41856/original/nt5gbnvk-1392756983.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41856/original/nt5gbnvk-1392756983.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Lutana zinc refinery near central Hobart.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Carlie Devine</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This emphasis is related to the secondary phenomenon of attention being drawn away from genuine ineptitude. For example, the courting of the information sector in the early 2000s was naive and costly. The A$40 million allotted to the <a href="http://www.parliament.tas.gov.au/ctee/old_ctees/intelligent.pdf">“Intelligent Island”</a> strategy has produced nothing of note thanks to an insistence of supporting connected locals rather than courting established mainland players. </p>
<p>The fallacy that <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3vmd7fNZkE">“Tasmanians could make it on their own”</a> was foolhardy, stemming from unsophisticated parochialism. </p>
<p>More nefarious empirical damage stemmed from the <a href="http://www.erpjournal.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/ERPV36-2_Rodwell-G.-2009.pdf">“constructivist pedagogy”</a> of the Essential Learning curriculum, which was ditched after complaints it revolved around pointless jargon. Employers complained that they knew job candidates’ views on <a href="http://books.google.com.au/books?id=w9UQmnHApF0C&lpg=PA132&ots=aXA4GWoild&dq=essential%20learnings%20tasmania%20report%20cards&pg=PA132#v=onepage&q=essential%20learnings%20tasmania%20report%20cards&f=false">“world futures”</a>, but not whether they could read and write. Here, the lofty idealism of Tasmania leading the way collided with avoidable incompetency. One teacher said that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We‘re hoping it collapses before it does too much damage.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In some circumstances, the bureaucratic failures would be mildly amusing. But in a state with <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/backgroundbriefing/2013-09-22/4962902">49% functional illiteracy</a>, it is reprehensible.</p>
<h2>What’s ahead?</h2>
<p>In Tasmania, these substandard efforts persist because politicians continue to concentrate on the crude wedge politics based on decades-old ideas. This is to the detriment of those in true hardship in areas such as the state’s northwest and west. At the same time, politicians feed the narrative that external forces are continually intervening and preventing Tasmania from becoming something much more.</p>
<p>A key obstacle in overcoming these failures is matching Tasmanian expectations with reality. The Tasmanian psyche revels in the idea of island exceptionalism. It needs instead to embark on a program of island pragmatism. </p>
<p>All things considered, we are seeing a “new boring” emerge in Tasmanian politics. On the whole, this is a good thing. At the risk of sounding pessimistic, Tasmania has for too long punched above its weight in politics for little gain. </p>
<p>In the end, this demands a realist approach that embraces a less exciting approach to politics. And this doesn’t have to be negative. After all, Tasmania prides itself on its laid-back manner, its seclusion and its natural beauty. All it needs to do now is recognise its limits.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/23350/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wayne McLean does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A YouTube video appeared earlier this month with a suspiciously familiar Tasmanian candidate named “Fast Freddy”. The video perfectly encapsulates Poe’s law, which states that it is impossible to distinguish…Wayne McLean, PhD Researcher, Politics and International Relations Program, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/225342014-02-10T19:32:56Z2014-02-10T19:32:56ZCampaign, rinse, repeat: why voters have heard it all before<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/40386/original/tfkzcv3x-1391389050.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Sound familiar? Tasmanian Liberal leader Will Hodgman says the election is 'the most important in a generation', a claim symptomatic of the recycling of political narratives. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/David Beniuk</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South Australia, Tasmania and Victoria are heading to the polls this year to pick their next state governments. All indications are that these campaigns will have more than a dash of déjà vu about them.</p>
<p>Tasmanian Liberal leader Will Hodgman has made an early score in campaign buzzword bingo by labelling that state’s vote <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VkY8azKI7Sc&list=UUmww-0JcEeBVBcCTPs74W6A&feature=c4-overview">“the most important in a generation”</a>. In Victoria, the routine <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/fares-up-22-in-labors-trains-plan-20140121-316xw.html">argy-bargy over costings</a> is underway unusually early after Labor’s announcement of an ambitious public transport plan. </p>
<p>Over in Adelaide, the Liberals are touting a plan to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EYLdKIH1mzs">“put South Australia back on track”</a> while Labor claims to be <a href="http://www.sa.alp.org.au/">“building a stronger South Australia”</a>.</p>
<p>All these claims and slogans have had a healthy workout in recent past campaigns. This sense of history repeating is no coincidence. </p>
<p>For a forthcoming research paper, <a href="http://www.nousgroup.com.au/david.bartlett">David Bartlett</a> and I analysed 35 state and federal campaigns run by the major parties over 10 years of Australian electioneering. After looking particularly at the core messages and themes of these campaigns, we found that Labor and the Liberals have continually recycled the same six narratives with only minor tweaks and changes for the past decade. </p>
<p>It looks as though the current crop of state parties are gearing up to use these all over again, despite the fact that fewer and fewer people seem to be listening.</p>
<h2>Tell me a story</h2>
<p>A campaign narrative is the underlying story a party tells about why the election matters, what is at stake and why that party deserves your vote. Campaign strategists will tell you that it should be woven through every aspect of a party’s election pitch, from advertising and letterbox drops to the leader’s launch speech and the frontbenchers’ daily soundbites.</p>
<p>Our research suggests that opposition parties campaigning to take government run one of two narratives: a “New Hope” story offering fresh ideas and a novel approach, or a “Time’s Up” tale that suggests their opponents have made a mess of things for long enough. </p>
<p>For parties in office, there’s the “Job’s Not Done” narrative, which highlights progress and achievement while pointing out how much work is left to do, and the “Experience Versus Inexperience” theme, which casts doubt on their opponents’ governing capabilities.</p>
<p>If the electoral outlook seems particularly bleak, parties will tell voters that they have “Listened and learned” from past mistakes and promise to do better in future. The “Fear” narrative is a handy fallback when all else fails.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/40383/original/6yzwds4w-1391388668.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/40383/original/6yzwds4w-1391388668.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/40383/original/6yzwds4w-1391388668.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=910&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/40383/original/6yzwds4w-1391388668.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=910&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/40383/original/6yzwds4w-1391388668.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=910&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/40383/original/6yzwds4w-1391388668.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1143&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/40383/original/6yzwds4w-1391388668.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1143&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/40383/original/6yzwds4w-1391388668.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1143&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The South Australian Liberal campaign theme suggests time’s up for the government, with a promise to fix the state.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The early signs from <a href="http://www.tas.liberal.org.au//sites/default/files/policy/PFBFuture.pdf">Tasmania</a> and <a href="http://www.saliberal.org.au/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=BhlcMnnWpVU%3d&tabid=171">South Australia</a> are that both Liberal oppositions intend to run hard on the “Time’s Up” theme, after Labor’s 16 and 12 years in office respectively. </p>
<p>The South Australian Labor government has already begun driving an “Experience Versus Inexperience” narrative by emphasising the hard times ahead for the state and the need for <a href="http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/jay-weatherill-launches-state-election-campaign-logo-on-tshirts/story-fnii5yv7-1226810512052">a safe pair of hands</a> at the helm. Meanwhile, Tasmanian premier Lara Giddings seems to be <a href="http://www.premier.tas.gov.au/">telegraphing that her government</a> has “Listened and learned” from angry voters and is refocusing on jobs and economic growth in response. </p>
<p>It’s too early to say with confidence which narratives the Victorian parties will choose for the November state election. Based purely on the political environment, I’d be betting on a “Job’s Not Done” theme for the incumbent Liberals and a “New Hope” narrative from Labor, capitalising on the turmoil of the past three years in Spring Street.</p>
<p>Those narratives are certainly tried and tested. They’ve helped many parties before these ones win elections or stave off severe defeat. But is it wise to continue repeating the same things voters have heard before, at a time when evidence suggests people are tuning out from politics in droves?</p>
<h2>Shouting into the void</h2>
<p>It is well established that Australians don’t really trust politicians or believe much of what they say. In the 2013 <a href="http://www.scanlonfoundation.org.au/docs/2013_SocC_report_final.pdf">Scanlon Social Cohesion Survey</a>, only 27% of respondents believed politicians can be trusted “almost always” or “most of the time”. A recent <a href="http://www.publish.csiro.au/?act=view_file&file_id=AH11073.pdf">CSIRO study</a> found that only about half of all respondents trusted state or federal governments to effectively deliver essential services.</p>
<p>While this lack of trust is a relative constant in Australian political life, the proportion of people reporting a lack of <em>interest</em> in politics has been <a href="http://aes.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/Trends%20in%20Australian%20Political%20Opinion.pdf">steadily rising</a> for the past few decades. In a <a href="http://visions-download.unimelb.edu.au/HILDA/CA_natpoll.pdf">University of Melbourne survey</a> conducted before last year’s federal election, almost one in four participants said they had little or no interest in politics. This proportion rose to 45% in a separate <a href="http://www.tai.org.au/content/election-2013-youth-survey-interest-enrolment">study of people under 25</a>.</p>
<p>This national switch-off is driven by a complex range of factors, many of which are explored through the Australia and New Zealand School of Government’s (ANZOG) <a href="http://www.governanceinstitute.edu.au/magma/media/upload/ckeditor/files/DEMOCRACY%20REPORT-%20UPDATED%20VERSION-27-6-13.pdf">Imagining Australian Democracy</a> project. These include a feeling that ordinary people can’t influence political outcomes, frustration with an adversarial political environment, and the lack of openness and transparency in our political processes.</p>
<p>These are serious issues of democratic legitimacy. They certainly can’t be fixed simply by parties updating their campaign lingo. But their repeated use of a fixed and repetitive set of narratives seems likely to make this worrying trend worse, because if voters feel like they’ve heard it all before, then they have little reason to pay attention this time around.</p>
<p>What’s more, if the parties’ narratives don’t change and evolve in response to the concerns and interests that voters have these days, then even the ones who are still paying attention aren’t likely to keep listening into the future.</p>
<p>In short, it’s probably time for Australia’s major parties to find a new set of narratives to engage voters during election campaigns. Better still, those parties could move past <em>telling</em> voters what’s important. They should instead focus on <em>asking</em> them what they value, what kind of future we should be working towards, and how we’re going to get there together. </p>
<p>That’s a harder conversation to have via a DL letterbox flyer, but it might just be the one that gets people paying attention to politics again.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/22534/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Rayner does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>South Australia, Tasmania and Victoria are heading to the polls this year to pick their next state governments. All indications are that these campaigns will have more than a dash of déjà vu about them…Jennifer Rayner, Doctoral Candidate, Australian Politics, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/227732014-02-07T04:46:35Z2014-02-07T04:46:35ZWhy electioneering is at the root of Tasmania’s forest furore<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/40995/original/bz7t87zv-1391746257.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=11%2C17%2C1950%2C1377&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Is Tasmania's world heritage listed wilderness the focus of a tussle for votes?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">JJ Harrison/Wikimedia Commons</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Australian government is trying to turn back time in Tasmania’s forests, seeking to roll back world heritage measures put in place just a few months ago in the wake of a peace deal between Tasmanian environmentalists and loggers.</p>
<p>The government is bidding to delist <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-03/pressure-grows-for-federal-government-to-delist-more-of-tasmani/5233640">a section of Tasmania’s World Heritage Area</a>, a move that has prompted claim and counterclaim about whether the past logging of these areas makes them more or less deserving of world heritage protection.</p>
<p>So who is right, and what’s really going on in Tasmania’s wilderness?</p>
<h2>The story so far</h2>
<p>Early last year, the Labor-led federal government asked for a minor extension of the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area. In June, the <a href="http://whc.unesco.org/en/committee/">World Heritage Committee</a> unanimously <a href="http://whc.unesco.org/en/decisions/5174">accepted</a> the proposal for an additional 172,500 hectares to be added to the existing property of 1,412,183 hectares. </p>
<p>This extension was considered to be particularly valuable as it improved the integrity of the area by adding significant areas of tall eucalypt forest with its understorey of rainforest. Indeed, the committee had already asked Australia to consider the move.</p>
<p>The proposal was a key outcome of the <a href="http://www.forestsagreement.tas.gov.au/">Tasmanian Forests Agreement</a>, an accord between environmental, forestry union, community and industry groups, implemented by the federal and state governments. It was opposed by the state Liberal opposition and the then federal Coalition opposition. With both parties facing elections, each had promised to undo key parts of the agreement. </p>
<p>The Coalition went into September’s federal election with a specific pledge to retract the 2013 World Heritage Area extension. As we shall see, that pledge seems to have trumped the interests of both conservation and industry alike.</p>
<h2>“Highly unusual” move</h2>
<p>Fast forward to last week, when the federal government <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/31/coalition-strip-tasmanian-forests-world-heritage-listing">announced its request</a> for the World Heritage Committee to consider removing 74,000 hectares when it meets in June – just a year after the extension was granted. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/node/34177">government</a> considers these areas to “detract from the overall Outstanding Universal Value of the property and diminish its overall integrity” and has urged “removal of areas containing 117 patches of disturbed and previously logged forest”, including “a number of pine and exotic eucalypt plantations”. </p>
<p>Environmental organisations have counterclaimed that the areas of logging constitute no more than 10% of the area, in places that are important for the integrity of the tall forests. A United Nations official has <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/feb/04/unesco-tasmania-forest-world-heritage-exceptional">described the government’s request</a> as “highly unusual”.</p>
<h2>Claim and counterclaim</h2>
<p>Given the claims and counterclaims being made about logging disturbance and integrity, what is the actual situation, and how does this sit with the federal government’s rationale for any change?</p>
<p>A federally funded <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/eefde0e6-0f83-486d-b0c3-8b1d25abc497/files/ivgsocialreserveslockwood.pdf">report</a> shows as at 2011 those areas in Tasmania where logging has occurred since 1960 (when clearfelling began) and where plantations have been established. It suggests that the figures being pitted against each other (117 patches of disturbed forest versus less than 10% of the total area) are both plausible, and consistent with one another. However, the analysis also indicates that most of the area that is proposed to be removed by the federal government has not been previously logged.</p>
<p>So how important are these areas of past logging disturbance to the overall values of the World Heritage Area? </p>
<p>The fact that this Tasmanian wilderness was accepted as World Heritage Area, and then extended, shows that the World Heritage Committee clearly accepts the presence of past disturbance in a nominated area. In other words, the existence of past disturbance does not mean that a site should not be listed, or that it no longer has conservation value.</p>
<p>As a case in point, in 2012 Australia sought, and <a href="http://whc.unesco.org/en/decisions/4816">was granted</a>, another previous extension to the World Heritage Area, on the south coast, of an area with a recent history of tin mining and associated disturbance. </p>
<p>Indeed, the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area as a whole has many other forms of disturbance, including highways, roads, major dams, hydro power and water supply infrastructure, power lines, and other areas of past mining and logging.</p>
<h2>The chance of rehabilitation</h2>
<p>Of all these disturbances, the recently logged areas have arguably some of the best chances of rehabilitation and restoration of their conservation values. Meanwhile, the 74,000 hectares to be removed consist largely of mature tall eucalypt forests in good condition. </p>
<p>It is hard to see how their removal will improve the integrity of the site or its representation of world heritage values. </p>
<p>Internationally, there are many other world heritage sites that contain past and even present logging disturbance. The <a href="http://whc.unesco.org/en/conventiontext/">World Heritage Convention</a> states that a key function of world heritage listing is to help protect outstanding universal values from threats and that rehabilitation is not just acceptable but obligatory for state signatories. </p>
<p>The committee would already have been aware of the presence of logging disturbance, because the International Union for Conservation of Nature has already <a href="http://whc.unesco.org/archive/2013/whc13-37com-8B2inf-Add-en.pdf">reported to the committee</a> the existence of logging in the area, and the recommended processes for ending it. A <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/pages/f99dbb51-03c2-4eb2-a66e-87c4044117b4/files/twwha-supplementary.pdf">Labor government submission</a> to the committee included a cover photo showing a logging coupe in one of the areas to be included, as well as the history of representations and investigations by the committee into logging of the tall eucalypt forests on the area’s eastern boundaries.</p>
<h2>No change in store?</h2>
<p>Any attempt to reverse last year’s decision thus seems unlikely to succeed. Unless, that is, the present federal government can show that the area has been degraded even more since it was accepted for inclusion last June, or that the committee made an error in its first judgement – either through failing to read the materials put before it or through a failure of the material to communicate an extent of logging disturbance that would have led the committee to a different decision.</p>
<p>This brings us to the question of the real underlying motives. The Coalition government’s extraordinary move makes little sense on heritage conservation grounds. At the same time it seems contrary to the interests of the timber industry. The Forest Industries Association of Tasmania <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tasmanias-upper-florentine-valley-world-heritage-area-eyed-for-logging-20140201-31u4t.html?&amp;co=f000000013912s-1248979085">has said</a> it does not support the excisions, which would undo the recent securing of a non-contentious timber supply under the Tasmanian Forest Agreement.</p>
<p>We are therefore left with a strong sense that the move is purely political, based on the strong anti-green sentiment of a large proportion of rural and regional Tasmanians. The promise to revoke the world heritage extensions may have been a key factor in helping the federal Coalition win several Tasmanian seats last September. </p>
<p>It may also help the Tasmanian Liberals win government in a state election this March.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/22773/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Russell Warman has previously worked as a policy analyst with ENGOs involved in Tasmania's forest negotiations.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jamie Kirkpatrick is a member of the National Parks and Wildlife Advisory Council of Tasmania.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stewart Williams does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Australian government is trying to turn back time in Tasmania’s forests, seeking to roll back world heritage measures put in place just a few months ago in the wake of a peace deal between Tasmanian…Russell Warman, PhD candidate - School of Land and Food, University of TasmaniaJamie Kirkpatrick, Professor of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of TasmaniaStewart Williams, Lecturer, School of Land and Food (Discipline of Geography), University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/221122014-01-20T19:35:30Z2014-01-20T19:35:30ZPulp mill politics set to dominate Tasmanian election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/39340/original/sykrdzjq-1390129455.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Tasmania will go to the polls on March 15. What issues will decide the campaign?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Rob Blakers</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Tasmanian premier Lara Giddings cleared the way for the state to head to the polls late last week. Having <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/national/tasmanian-premier-lara-giddings-sacks-greens-ministers-ahead-of-election-20140116-30w6e.html">sacked</a> Greens ministers Nick McKim and Cassy O'Connor from her Cabinet, Giddings <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/16/lara-giddings-calls-tasmanian-election-for-15-march">set the election date</a> for March 15.</p>
<p>So, what’s left for the Giddings government to do, and how will it play out before March 15?</p>
<p>The end of the Greens alliance, which Labor had used to govern in minority since the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tasmanian_state_election,_2010">2010 state election</a>, is largely a party-political act designed to appeal to the Labor heartland. There was no actual need for it to end, as the Greens were able to step outside Cabinet and argue against government policy on matters of conscience. This was an arrangement that had worked well for four years. </p>
<p>Giddings will recall parliament on January 28 in order to pass legislation – with opposition Liberal support – to secure the legality of the process to approve a <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/national/tasmanian-pulp-mill-back-as-election-issue-20140118-311rr.html">large-scale pulp mill</a> in the northern Tamar Valley. Again, this move is designed to show political support for a contentious project that has little likelihood of getting off the ground.</p>
<p>Finally, in a further political signal to the heartland, Giddings said that Labor will <a href="http://www.themercury.com.au/news/tasmania/giddings-dumps-greens-ministers-vows-to-never-share-power/story-fnj4f7k1-1226803658414">never allow</a> the Greens into Cabinet again. These are desperate times for Labor, which is polling at 22%, down from 36.9% at the 2010 election. And one wonders how it would govern without the Greens, who are polling at 19%, down from 21.6% in 2010.</p>
<p>As a result of these polls, some sort of governing arrangement with Green support would be Tasmanian Labor’s only hope of returning to government after March 15, at least on current voter preferences. If it were not Cabinet posts that the Greens were offered, then it would likely need to be significant environmental policy concessions in order to secure their support.</p>
<p>The Greens have supported minority governments in Tasmania on two previous occasions. They supported a Labor government between 1989 and 1991 in return for policy concessions alone, and a Liberal government (1996-98) in return for a more sketchy commitment to co-operative politics. Neither arrangement achieved the certainty, stability and productivity brought by having Greens in Cabinet.</p>
<p>While Giddings announced her intention to hold an election on March 15, her recall of parliament – having cut loose the Greens – creates great uncertainty. The Greens are now free to move a vote of no confidence in the minority government over the pulp mill legislation. The government may fall, depending what the Liberal opposition chooses to do.</p>
<p>The scene is set, therefore, for a divisive election campaign, whatever the actual date or the politics of setting it. Pulp mill politics will prove the major battleground, but so will Labor’s dive to the right. The ALP has promised an economic revival on the back of failing industries such as forestry and provocatively pre-selected anti-Green, conservative candidates <a href="http://www.themercury.com.au/news/tasmania/greens-blast-choice-of-bob-gordon-as-lyons-candidate/story-fnj4f7k1-1226805056683">Bob Gordon</a> and <a href="http://www.themercury.com.au/news/tasmania/greens-slam-julian-amos-bid-to-win-denison-with-labor/story-fnj4f7k1-1226773766388">Julian Amos</a>.</p>
<p>State economic development will dominate the election campaign, with Labor promising what would need to be a state-sponsored revival of traditional industries. Labor will also support the transition, long advocated by the Greens, to a jobs-rich new economy based on the digital and creative industries, and niche produce, science, aged care and international education.</p>
<p>The Liberal opposition will be arguing for a Tasmania that is open for business, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-19/libs-announce-policies-to-cut-red-and-green-tape/5207196">stripped of green and red tape</a>, and where forestry will return to prominence. Along with arguments about state development, there are concerns in the electorate about Tasmania’s relatively <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-16/slight-dip-in-tasmanian-jobless-rate/5203244">high unemployment rate</a>, poverty and social disadvantage, and an over-reliance on federal funding.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/39355/original/44t7grds-1390172216.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/39355/original/44t7grds-1390172216.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/39355/original/44t7grds-1390172216.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/39355/original/44t7grds-1390172216.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/39355/original/44t7grds-1390172216.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/39355/original/44t7grds-1390172216.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/39355/original/44t7grds-1390172216.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tamar Valley, the site of a proposed pulp mill. The environment will be a key election issue in Tasmania’s state election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Ordinarily, federal issues would not figure in a state election. However, the March poll will almost certainly pass judgement on the Coalition federal government. Labor will also extend its scare campaign that a Liberal state government would not oppose Tasmania’s <a href="http://www.themercury.com.au/news/tasmania/tasmanias-share-of-gst-high-on-premier-lara-giddings-coag-agenda/story-fnj4f7k1-1226781960229">share of the national goods and services tax</a> being diminished by the Coalition.</p>
<p>Labor will campaign to protect national funding for disability insurance, broadband, health and education. Greens leader Nick McKim has already been aggressively attacking the Coalition for its threats to health care, education, legal aid, Tasmania’s world heritage listings and protected forests, and advances in same-sex marriage. His party will likely keep the pressure on the two major parties.</p>
<p>However, Labor has painted itself into a bizarre corner – much as federal Labor did in 2013 – where it is either unwilling or unable to praise its own achievements in government, given that these were supported by, and in some case the responsibilities of, the Greens. Giddings herself has been effusive in <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/tasmanian-labor-quits-alliance-keeps-greens-options/story-e6frgczx-1226803667681">praising</a> her now-sacked Green ministers.</p>
<p>With Giddings and the Greens trading compliments on how well they have worked together, it is hard to give credibility to the Labor-Green divorce. It may well be designed merely to appease the trade unions, right-wing party members and traditional Labor voters. But it is also a political ploy that will help the Greens campaign strongly to their own base as March 15 looms.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/22112/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kate Crowley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Tasmanian premier Lara Giddings cleared the way for the state to head to the polls late last week. Having sacked Greens ministers Nick McKim and Cassy O'Connor from her Cabinet, Giddings set the election…Kate Crowley, Associate Professor, Public and Environmental Policy, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.