tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/transfer-window-7331/articlesTransfer window – The Conversation2023-07-04T17:08:12Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2090662023-07-04T17:08:12Z2023-07-04T17:08:12ZWhy Arsenal paid so much for Declan Rice: a strategy focusing on mid-20s, home-grown talent<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535548/original/file-20230704-17-ozfsr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3732%2C2484&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Declan Rice playing for England. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/rome-italy-july-3-2021-european-2014189553">Vlad1988/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Arsenal has reached an agreement with West Ham for the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/66048751">transfer of captain Declan Rice</a> for <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/arsenal-declan-rice-transfer-news-man-city-b2365490.html">a British record</a> of £105 million. This surpasses the <a href="https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11679/12372309/jack-grealish-manchester-city-sign-aston-villa-captain-for-100m">previous record</a> of £100 million paid by Manchester City to sign Jack Grealish from Aston Villa in the summer transfer window of the 2021/22 season.</p>
<p>While such a high transfer fee might sound outlandish for a player in the final year of his contract, Arsenal’s strategy is setting them up for potential Champions League success in the 2023/2024 season. </p>
<p>After securing qualification for the Champions League last season, Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta’s constant rhetoric has been around getting the recruitment right. It was evident towards the end of last season that Arsenal <a href="https://dailycannon.com/2023/05/how-arsenals-lack-of-depth-premier-league-title/">did not have the squad depth</a> (enough quality players to replace the first team) to match Manchester City in the title race.</p>
<p>Arsenal’s transfer strategy cannot be analysed by looking at a single season in isolation. In the summer transfer window of 2021/22, the team made a concerted effort to sign youth players, with an outlay of £143 million for six players, including <a href="https://www.arsenal.com/news/welcome-martin-odegaard-joins-real-madrid">Martin Odegaard</a> and <a href="https://www.arsenal.com/news/aaron-ramsdale-joins-permanent-deal">Aaron Ramsdale</a>. </p>
<p>The following year saw the addition of <a href="https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11095/12640253/gabriel-jesus-arsenal-complete-signing-of-brazil-forward-from-man-city">Gabriel Jesus</a> and <a href="https://www.skysports.com/transfer/news/12691/12655394/oleksandr-zinchenko-arsenal-sign-ukraine-international-from-man-city-in-32m-deal">Oleksandr Zinchenko</a> from Manchester City, while <a href="https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11670/12799982/jorginho-arsenal-sign-midfielder-from-chelsea-in-deal-worth-12m-on-deadline-day">Jorginho</a> was added in the January transfer window.</p>
<p>These transfers say a lot about Arsenal’s strategy. Teams need three different types of signings in order to succeed.</p>
<p>In the short term, they players who are signed to make immediate impact. In the medium term, players who are signed at the start of their peak and sold before they sign one last big contract. And in the long term, players who are signed as youth players and become the core of the team. </p>
<p>The signing of Declan Rice fits into the medium-term transfer strategy for the club.</p>
<h2>Arsenal’s recruitment strategy</h2>
<p>Arsenal’s recruitment strategy has undergone noticeable changes in the past two summers. They shifted from their “<a href="https://www.fourfourtwo.com/features/project-youth-20-why-arsenals-problems-can-be-solved-within">Project Youth 2.0</a>” approach in the 2021-22 season to focusing on signing experienced players in their mid-20s. </p>
<p>This shift was instrumental in elevating Arsenal’s performance. The acquisition of Rice is in line with this strategy from last summer, indicating a continuation of their approach.</p>
<p>The tournaments Arsenal will be involved in next season hold the key to understanding Rice’s importance. This will be the first time since the 2015/16 season that Arsenal will be taking part in UEFA’s premier club competition, the Champions League.</p>
<p>In the previous transfer windows, Arsenal have sold their difficult-to-shift players with high wages and they will most likely generate money through similar sales this summer. The return to the Champions League will also help the club improve their revenue by at least £30 million, provided they can make it out of the group stages.</p>
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<p>The signing of Declan Rice will also help Arsenal with registration criteria for both the English Premier League and Champions League. A total number of 25 players over the age of 21 can be registered for both competitions. Out of those 25 players, at least eight players must be home grown, at either the club or in the country (in this case, England). </p>
<p>Declan Rice was trained in the Chelsea and West Ham academy, so he will count as a homegrown player for Arsenal.</p>
<p>But with a record-breaking bid, is Arsenal overpaying for Declan Rice? Laurie Shaw, the head of data analytics at Manchester City, <a href="http://eightyfivepoints.blogspot.com/2019/05/from-sessegnon-to-sanchez-how-to.html">created a formula</a> to calculate the correct market salary for English Premier League players. Applying the formula to Rice, it seems that Arsenal are overpaying by a fair margin – almost £75 million.</p>
<p>However, quality homegrown players are few and far between, which is what has allowed Arsenal to justify the £105 million fee – well worth it if the addition of Declan Rice helps the Gooners to trophy glory.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209066/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarthak Mondal works as a Lecturer in Sport Management for University of Portsmouth. </span></em></p>The signing of homegrown talent, Declan Rice, will help Arsenal with registration criteria for both the English Premier League and Champions League.Sarthak Mondal, Lecturer in Sport Management, University of PortsmouthLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1663092021-08-27T09:15:52Z2021-08-27T09:15:52Z‘Harder than I’d expected’: top players on why joining Premier League from abroad is so tough<p>The new football season has seen the return of fans, and the return of big money transfers. Ahead of the transfer window closing at the end of August, big names joining the English Premier League from overseas include <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/football/2021/aug/14/manchester-united-confirm-signing-of-raphael-varane-from-real-madrid">Raphael Varane</a> (to Manchester United from Real Madrid for £42 million) and <a href="https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11668/12375524/romelu-lukaku-chelsea-break-club-transfer-record-to-re-sign-striker-from-inter-milan-for-97-5m">Romelu Lukaku</a> (to Chelsea from Inter Milan for £97.5 million). </p>
<p>The clubs’ owners and fans will no doubt hope their expensive new players hit the ground running and provide immediate impact. Yet these moves do not always work out, with players sometimes failing to live up to their potential. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/352411901_Exploring_migration_experiences_of_foreign_footballers_to_England_through_the_use_of_autobiographies">Our research</a> explains why players moving to the Premier League can struggle to adjust. Bought and sold for sometimes huge sums, their <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14660970.2021.1930535">personal stories</a> reveal some of the key challenges they face off the pitch. </p>
<p>To begin with, like anyone moving to another country, players and their families must adjust to a new and unfamiliar environment. Finding somewhere to live, making friends and choosing schools must be done alongside the public pressure of their new footballing role. </p>
<p>There may also be a language barrier, which can affect performances on the pitch and a player’s ability to communicate with teammates and coaching or medical staff. As former Liverpool and Chelsea striker Fernando Torres, who moved from Spain, <a href="https://harpercollins.co.uk/products/torres-el-nio-my-story-fernando-torres?variant=32754833096782">recalls</a> of the various knocks he sustained in his early months in England: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>If you don’t explain your symptoms properly, you can end up being given the wrong treatment. If you can’t explain exactly where the pain is, and what kind of pain it is, it can hinder your rehabilitation. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Another former Liverpool star, Luis Suarez, who arrived from the Netherlands, <a href="https://www.headline.co.uk/titles/luis-suarez/luis-suarez-crossing-the-line-my-story/9781472224255/">relied on gestures</a> to communicate when he first moved there and said he was not able to play to his full capabilities as a result. </p>
<p>Research also suggests that players who don’t speak English well are seen as “<a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17430430701388772">more foreign</a>” by the media and fans. They may be portrayed as being motivated by short-term financial gains, uninterested in adapting to a club’s or country’s culture, and lacking dedication. They are also often the first to be blamed for a poor team performance. </p>
<p>Certainly, media coverage of football in England can be <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-44438608">ore intense</a> than in other countries, and foreign players (and managers) often struggle to adapt to <a href="https://journals-sagepub-com.ezproxy.uws.edu.au/doi/full/10.1177/1012690212463917">this extra scrutiny</a> and pressure. The French former Manchester United forward Eric Cantona believed the English media liked to “<a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/6411653-cantona">dig up dirt</a>” and criticise every mistake. </p>
<p>Another adjustment involves new ways of playing and the <a href="https://www.fourfourtwo.com/news/guardiola-shocked-premier-leagues-physicality">particularly intense physicality</a> of the Premier League. Migrating overseas to work can be demanding in any sector but football players have the added complication of staying healthy and avoiding injury. </p>
<p>Matches and training are draining, and as former Southampton defender Maya Yoshida <a href="https://harpercollins.co.uk/products/unbeatable-mind-maya-yoshida?variant=32610342142030">has pointed out</a>, players in England do not enjoy the benefit of a winter break to recharge their batteries, both mentally and physically.</p>
<p>Players’ families can also struggle with moving to a new country, with challenges including adapting to the new culture and very different weather in England. Even everyday tasks like getting “used to a new way of driving”, as <a href="https://www.lfchistory.net/Articles/Article/3303">mentioned by</a> ex-Liverpool goalkeeper Pepe Reina, can present obstacles. </p>
<p>If their families find the move difficult, this can put additional strain on the player. As former Chelsea striker <a href="https://www.hodder.co.uk/titles/didier-drogba/commitment/9781473623781/">Didier Drogba noted</a> after arriving from France:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The move to England had been harder than I’d expected. I had a lot to adapt to both in terms of the language and the team’s way of playing, and my family had a difficult time adapting as well. </p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Game plan</h2>
<p>After investing millions of pounds on a player, expecting immediate results is understandable. But given these challenges, it is important that clubs and fans remember the human side of football, and the fact that players need time to adapt.<br>
The club in particular has a key role to play in supporting the well-being of new players, <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/1943475.Vieira">who frequently mention</a> the support of their new manager as being crucial to settling in and feeling welcome. But this relationship is not always straightforward when transfers are coordinated or decided by <a href="https://www.football365.com/news/who-is-in-charge-of-transfers-at-each-premier-league-club">transfer committees and directors</a>.</p>
<p>For <a href="https://harpercollins.co.uk/products/torres-el-nio-my-story-fernando-torres?variant=32754833096782">Torres</a>, Liverpool FC provided English teachers and interpreters for him to help with tasks such as how to buy a house in a foreign country. These forms of support can help players feel welcomed and settled, leading to improved <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/08824096.2015.1052900">performances on the pitch</a>. Low levels of social support can be associated with mental health issues and <a href="https://academic.oup.com/occmed/article/65/3/190/1479375">declines in performance</a>. </p>
<p>As the 2021/22 season gets underway, Raphael Varane has acknowledged the importance for him of <a href="https://www.manutd.com/en/news/detail/raphael-varane-says-he-wanted-to-learn-english-to-be-close-to-the-man-utd-fans">learning to speak English</a> soon, to be close to fans, as well as his new manager and teammates. </p>
<p>Club rivalries aside, he might do well to seek advice on British life from his fellow Premier League arrival. Lukaku played for Chelsea previously alongside the <a href="https://inews.co.uk/sport/football/romelu-lukaku-chelsea-text-message-cesar-azpilicueta-1157223">current team captain</a>, César Azpilicueta, spending almost ten years in England before moving to Italy. He may settle in more quickly and be a safer bet – even at £97.5 million.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/166309/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>This article is derived from a journal paper that was co-authored with Aaron Lally: Aaron Lally, Matt Smith & Keith D. Parry (2021) Exploring migration experiences of foreign footballers to England through the use of autobiographies, Soccer & Society, DOI: 10.1080/14660970.2021.1930535</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Clubs should not ignore the human side of buying and selling players.Keith Parry, Deputy Head Of Department in Department of Sport & Event Management, Bournemouth UniversityMatthew Smith, Senior Lecturer in Sport and Exercise Psychology, University of WinchesterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1190582019-07-08T12:20:54Z2019-07-08T12:20:54ZTransfer deadline medicals – how inaccurate tests may lead to clubs making the wrong decisions about players<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/282709/original/file-20190704-51258-t9l3qk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Pexels</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The football transfer deadline day is a highly anticipated event in any fan’s calendar. Signing one or two key players can be the difference between winning the league or relegation. But before a footballer can be signed, they have to pass a medical to see if they are “fit”.</p>
<p>Premier League clubs paid £217m in wages to <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/45045561">injured players in 2017-2018</a>. So financially, football clubs need to ensure a footballer can actually play. If not, they may be required to sign additional players – all of which costs more money. </p>
<p>Some of the most <a href="https://www.bupa.co.uk/newsroom/ourviews/common-football-injuries">common football injuries</a> include ankle, groin and hamstring strains, as well as anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury to a player’s knee. And such injuries can put players out of the game – this can be anything from a few weeks to a months at a time. For players, such an injury doesn’t just impact the body, it can also affect their mental health making them more prone to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/jun/18/qprs-chris-ramsey-reflects-mental-effects-long-term-injury">depression and anxiety</a> about getting back on the pitch.</p>
<p>Player safety is also a prime concern, so it’s important that any serious health conditions such as heart problems are picked up as soon as possible.</p>
<h2>Getting a medical</h2>
<p><a href="https://bmjopensem.bmj.com/content/4/1/e000357">My research</a> looks at commonly used injury screening tools in football so I know first-hand what goes on during the medical process of assessing a footballer’s suitability to play. </p>
<p>Not every club medical is the same, but generally, players will undergo a whole host of rigorous tests, often over a number of days. This can include blood tests, scans and a full medical history. Fitness tests usually involve repeated episodes of running outside, or on a treadmill hooked up to heart-rate monitors and breath analysis equipment. </p>
<p>Specific tests for muscle and bone injuries will also be carried out. Tests are likely to involve either looking at player <a href="https://bmjopensem.bmj.com/content/4/1/e000357">movements during certain tasks</a>, testing their strength, flexibility and even psychological questions about sleep, wellness and how hard they find the training.</p>
<h2>How good are the tests?</h2>
<p>Generally, heart scans, blood and fitness tests are pretty good at picking up what they should – although nothing is ever 100% accurate. But tests for predicting muscle, ligament and bone injuries aren’t the best.</p>
<p>The most commonly used movement screening test in football is the <a href="https://www.functionalmovement.com/">Functional Movement Screen</a>, which requires players to perform movements such as squatting, lunging and press-ups. And <a href="https://bmjopensem.bmj.com/content/4/1/e000357">our research</a> shows such tests aren’t actually very good at predicting injuries. </p>
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<p>We have also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gaitpost.2019.03.006">researched</a> how accurate tests for measuring footballers knee angles are – as this is thought to be related to significant knee injuries such as <a href="https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/acl-injury/symptoms-causes/syc-20350738">ACL tears</a> – and we found some major errors when measuring knee angles. So if these tests are used in medicals, this may contribute to flawed decision making around the “fitness” of a player. </p>
<h2>Making the right decision</h2>
<p>The football world is filled with stories of “<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thefootballtacticsblog/2011/03/ba_offers_stoke_a_glimpse_of_w.html">the one that got away</a>”, where clubs passed on players because they were thought too high an injury risk, for them to later go on to have outstanding seasons, scoring big goals and even bigger money in future transfers. </p>
<p>Equally there are cases where clubs got it right, with players only <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sport/football/fa_carling_premiership/729700.stm">weeks later sustaining a season ending injury</a>. With average weekly wages for a premier league footballers <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/42130297">of over £50,000 in 2017</a>, paying someone who isn’t playing is big money.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, there is no crystal ball. Injuries in football have lots of different causes – previous injuries, not enough recovery (fatigue) or an opponent putting in a nasty tackle. And sometimes these things can all interact, making injury prediction even more difficult. </p>
<p>In some cases, the club and medical team have enough time to perform all the desired screening tests and then come to a decision. But with some transfers going right to the wire, medical teams may have only a few days or hours. This is often because of transfers falling through or players, agents and clubs all holding their nerve till the last moment to get the best deal. </p>
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<p>Medical teams are then not only frantically trying to get medicals done, but in the weeks leading up to transfer deadline day, they will also be looking after the existing squad and preparing them for the upcoming season. </p>
<p>Of course, not every club medical is the same and medical teams often have a wealth of experience to draw on. The tests are used to provide extra information but they are seldom the decider. That said, medical teams still have a big challenge on their hands over the next few weeks, given the complex nature of injury, varied circumstances around transfer deadline day and consequences of getting it wrong.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/119058/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fraser Philp does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Medicals will be happening left, right and centre ahead of transfer deadline day, here’s what a screening actually entails.Fraser Philp, Lecturer in Physiotherapy and Programme Director for Rehabilitation and Exercise Science, Keele UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/891842018-01-23T13:48:00Z2018-01-23T13:48:00ZDoes spending big in the football transfer window get results? Two experts crunch the data<p>Football clubs in the English Premier League have found this month’s transfer window an expensive experience. With Liverpool breaking the world record for a defender, with the signing of <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2017/12/27/liverpool-agree-world-record-75m-deal-virgil-van-dijk/">Virgil van Dijk</a> and sale of <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/42608692">Phillipe Coutinho</a> to Barcelona, for a fee rising to £142m – bargains are in short supply. So is it worth spending the money?</p>
<p>Many clubs are finding it a challenge to weigh up their options ahead of the transfer window slamming shut at the end of the month. Should they back their manager and spend? Can they afford it? And, with so much riding on a Premier League place, should they stick with the players they’ve got or twist and buy more? </p>
<p>Here we make sense of the data from recent seasons to work out what can be done and what could work.</p>
<h2>New manager, players or both?</h2>
<p>The clubs at the bottom of the league have already been busy trying to change their fortunes. West Ham United, Crystal Palace and West Bromwich Albion all made a managerial change before the window opened. Two, Palace and West Ham have seen an upturn in results, climbing out of the relegation zone. Swansea City also decided a change was necessary over the Christmas period and Stoke City have parted company with manager <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/42332958">Mark Hughes</a> following a slump in form which saw them drop into the bottom three and exit the FA Cup at the hands of Coventry City, three leagues below them. </p>
<p>With <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13606719.2014.910000">recent research</a> suggesting that changing a manager mid-season is worth an average improvement of three league positions (assuming the change is made early enough for them to have an impact), it’s hardly surprising to see these gains in action. Three positions could be the difference between survival and relegation (which can <a href="http://www.skysports.com/football/news/11095/10879090/what-is-the-cost-of-premier-league-relegation-for-sunderland-middlesbrough-and-hull-city">make or break a club’s financial stability</a>). Or a lucrative place in a European competition. Perhaps this was the thinking behind Watford’s surprise <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/42765881">sacking of coach Marco Silva</a>. His departure was the eighth of the season in the Premier League – that’s 40% of managers already losing their job. </p>
<p>With this in mind, it is easy to see why clubs are keen to put a new manager in place at the start of the transfer window. Based on current standings, any club in the bottom half can realistically be considered in danger and those who haven’t yet shown their hand (such as Newcastle, Bournemouth and Southampton) are left playing playing Russian roulette. </p>
<p>So let us consider who could change their fortunes and see whether past windows can help clubs make that illusive, right decision.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201341/original/file-20180109-36016-4g5q06.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201341/original/file-20180109-36016-4g5q06.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201341/original/file-20180109-36016-4g5q06.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201341/original/file-20180109-36016-4g5q06.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201341/original/file-20180109-36016-4g5q06.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201341/original/file-20180109-36016-4g5q06.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201341/original/file-20180109-36016-4g5q06.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201341/original/file-20180109-36016-4g5q06.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Net Gain/Net Loss (Transfer Spend vs. Relegation or Survival)</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author data</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Ironically, Swansea City find themselves in exactly the same position as they were on New Years Day 2017 – bottom of the table. Two days later, they appointed a <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/38492260">new manager</a> and spent £18m on new transfers. These two decisions helped them to a 15th place finish and league safety (a gain of five places). A position that equated to <a href="https://www.premierleague.com/news/405400">£9.7m extra revenue</a> for the club. Even more importantly, by avoiding relegation they retained about £60m in TV money. With this in mind, £18m on transfers looks like a bargain. </p>
<p>Similarly, Crystal Palace spent £30m in the January 2017 window after <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/football/2016/dec/23/sam-allardyce-replaces-alan-pardew-as-crystal-palace-manager">appointing Sam Allardyce</a> as their new manager shortly beforehand. He led them from 17th position to 14th by the end of the season. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201343/original/file-20180109-36031-zhw1k3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201343/original/file-20180109-36031-zhw1k3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201343/original/file-20180109-36031-zhw1k3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201343/original/file-20180109-36031-zhw1k3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201343/original/file-20180109-36031-zhw1k3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201343/original/file-20180109-36031-zhw1k3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201343/original/file-20180109-36031-zhw1k3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201343/original/file-20180109-36031-zhw1k3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Total winter spend in 16/17 by club and places gained.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author Data</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>That said, it is not so easy as spending money to survive. Sunderland and Middlesbrough spent around £24m between them in January 2017 and still got relegated, but then neither club changed its manager in sufficient time for it to take effect. Sunderland themselves gambled a year earlier, spending £25m in the winter window of 2016 and stayed up. But the club couldn’t repeat this trick with David Moyes at the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/apr/29/sunderland-relegation-worst-day-in-football-david-moyes">helm last season</a>. </p>
<p>Yet crunching the numbers doesn’t show any real pattern. For some clubs spending works, and for others it doesn’t. What is clear is that, more often than not, increased spending in the transfer window coincides with a new manager at the helm, suggesting that sometimes a shake up of more than one element of the club is needed. Plus, many fans will argue, it is better to do something rather than nothing and just accepting your fate. </p>
<h2>Life is tough at the top</h2>
<p>With Manchester City seemingly a shoe in for the the league title, we have paid little attention to the top of the league. They remain fairly active, however, at this time of year. There has been a lot of <a href="https://twitter.com/MrTomMcDermott/status/950081750906163200">discussion</a> over the future of Manchester United’s manager and the club’s need to spend in the winter window – not to have any bearing on this year’s title race, but to bed in new players early enough to hit the ground running next season. </p>
<p>This seems a logical approach. A new manager often takes time to embed their methods and to develop a squad they deem appropriate to win football matches in their style. After all, Pep Guardiola guided City to 3rd in his first season in charge, before spending £221.5m in the <a href="http://www.goal.com/en-gb/news/man-city-2215m-milan-1784m-the-20-highest-spending-clubs/za2d0l2qvyp61nujjg35s2c0v">summer window in 2017</a>. Now they are 12 points clear at the top of the table. </p>
<p>The winter window throws many clubs into a tail spin with fans and commentators piling on the pressure to spend. There is no perfect formula, though, and clubs need to consider their options carefully. </p>
<p>It’s not a simple case of spending big and hoping for the best and, while we <a href="https://theconversation.com/prepare-for-a-record-breaking-premier-league-transfer-window-70631">predict another record breaking window</a>, there seems a greater need to make decisions that are planned strategically to maximise their return. Knee jerk purchases should be kept to a minimum, just like that outfit that is reduced by 70% but will never be worn.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>More evidence-based articles about football:</em></p>
<ul>
<li><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/how-ai-could-help-football-managers-spot-weak-links-in-their-teams-90276?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=WorldCup2018">How AI could help football managers spot weak links in their teams</a></em></p></li>
<li><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/the-mohamed-salah-effect-is-real-my-research-shows-how-he-inspires-egyptian-youth-97220?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=WorldCup2018">The ‘Mohamed Salah Effect’ is real – my research shows how he inspires Egyptian youth</a></em></p></li>
<li><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-keep-footballers-fit-and-fuelled-for-a-world-cup-97803?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=WorldCup2018">How to keep footballers fit and fuelled for major tournaments</a></em></p></li>
</ul><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/89184/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The combination of changing your manager early enough and forking out on transfers could be the difference between relegation and Premier League survival.Rob Wilson, Principal Lecturer in Sport Finance, Sheffield Hallam UniversityDan Plumley, Senior Lecturer in Sport Business Management, Sheffield Hallam UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/706312017-01-05T15:15:07Z2017-01-05T15:15:07ZPrepare for a record-breaking Premier League transfer window<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/151819/original/image-20170105-18644-ycipix.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=9%2C137%2C2038%2C1299&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/french-disko/6178378293/in/photolist-apXNBF-7yuwaL-Jwzsy-7pXJjk-e3v2p-6T96xW-bqPN4z-hDLTAx-Bq7o5-cZDhq3-89RrwE-mbCBQ-bWLwJV-eZeH9x-hAfU2-4LUrfP-7AYSbz-9GRc36-aeJKW4-56qAKu-9GwEPZ-7bWfFC-a4pzbd-a4pyQh-8StPSt-72neJJ-s2XqD-89NkNn-51JxVU-4pTgzZ-cJa4gq-8ARANv-aiejw2-aWw6K-a9ob5S-nU9CUU-96zS5P-gnVqs-5LbT2A-a7cecY-aoAisA-URRBy-bqPNbc-odq2UZ-2jWMjp-7HTYUg-b1JByr-bYcQBs-j2y5vz-8PLPGS">Anna Armstrong</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>If a week is a long time in politics, then a month in football can seem like an eternity. The English Premier League January transfer window is now a well established tradition that can tease, delight and disappoint supporters in equal measure, delivering a ceaseless flow of news and half news all wrapped up in eye-watering spending by the clubs. </p>
<p>It is likely that this winter’s window will be the biggest yet, and is predicted to break the current record of £225m spent by clubs in 2011. The overall spending for the season should head past £1.4 billion – the summer 2015 window alone generated <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/37209664">gross spending of £1.165 billion</a>.</p>
<p>There are two factors at play in this prediction. First, the financial significance of staying in the League is bigger than ever. Holding onto a Premier League place is <a href="http://www.goal.com/en-gb/news/2892/transfer-zone/2015/06/01/12280512/bournemouth-matching-bayern-how-the-new-premier-league-tv">worth an estimated £130m</a> to clubs so teams fighting relegation will feel under even more pressure to spend big. The risk here is clearly that their financial future could be threatened. Clubs can stretch too far, however, in tying players to big wages and long term contracts, an <a href="http://swissramble.blogspot.co.uk/2016/05/queens-park-rangers-they-cant-buy.html">approach Queens Park Rangers followed</a> with players such as Joey Barton, Bobby Zamora, Richard Dunne, Rio Ferdinand, Shaun Wright-Phillips, and Adel Taarabt. The club is now lying in 17th spot in the Championship, the second tier of English football.</p>
<p>Similarly, those clubs battling for a top six European spot, and for the European title itself, will be equally determined to ensure that their closest rivals do not buy the best talent. </p>
<p>Clubs also have more cash to spend than ever before. The signing of a £5.14 billion domestic <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/football/2015/feb/10/premier-league-tv-rights-sky-bt">broadcasting rights package</a> means that clubs have the cash to strengthen their squad substantially. Coupled with overseas rights worth an estimated £3 billion, less the solidarity payments made to clubs in the Football League, Premier League clubs will have a total of around £7 billion to spend between them over the next three seasons – more for those who <a href="https://www.premierleague.com/news/60138">finish higher in the table</a>. That’s before we factor in record club earnings, worth another £90m-100m based on estimates by <a href="https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/uk/Documents/sports-business-group/deloitte-uk-annual-review-of-football-finance-2016.pdf">football analysts at Deloitte</a>. </p>
<p>It is therefore of little wonder that major competition for experienced players will drive up transfer values and annual salaries. So, what can we expect from this window?</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/151817/original/image-20170105-29222-1i23aqa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/151817/original/image-20170105-29222-1i23aqa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/151817/original/image-20170105-29222-1i23aqa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151817/original/image-20170105-29222-1i23aqa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151817/original/image-20170105-29222-1i23aqa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151817/original/image-20170105-29222-1i23aqa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151817/original/image-20170105-29222-1i23aqa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151817/original/image-20170105-29222-1i23aqa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author's calculations/Telegraph/BBC</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Last season, January spending hit a five-year high of £175m, an increase of 36% on the previous year. With the 2016 winter window the first year of the new record TV deal, we can expect this figure to rise. There has been a steady increase in the amount of money spent on winter and summer transfers in recent times, increasing, for the most part, in line with each of the four broadcasting cycles, dating back to 2003.</p>
<p>This season’s summer spending has already eclipsed the combined summer and winter spend of last season. Of course summer spending far outstrips the winter window, a trend largely to be expected given that this is when clubs tend to change managers and build new squads in the off-season. </p>
<p>Winter spending is normally based on an objective, intensified by pressure from chairs, owners, fans, other clubs, agents and players themselves. Teams might need to improve short-term performance to stave off relegation, qualify for European competition or win the title. The financial loss from an error is so large that clubs feel the need to spend money to properly compete with their rivals.</p>
<p>But let’s think about the strategy for a moment here. Should clubs look to invest in youth with a view to a more long-term developmental strategy or throw the kitchen sink at signing experienced players for big money? For many at the bottom end of the league it is the latter strategy that often takes hold despite the returns being so difficult to obtain. The combined spend of clubs in the bottom six <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/35457851">last season was £90m</a> – more than half the total – yet only three teams would ultimately survive. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/151821/original/image-20170105-18647-jflk5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/151821/original/image-20170105-18647-jflk5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/151821/original/image-20170105-18647-jflk5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151821/original/image-20170105-18647-jflk5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151821/original/image-20170105-18647-jflk5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151821/original/image-20170105-18647-jflk5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151821/original/image-20170105-18647-jflk5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151821/original/image-20170105-18647-jflk5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author's calculations/Telegraph/BBC</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Spending beyond your means does not always guarantee success. It is <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14660970.2014.980737">true that the evidence</a> suggests the most successful clubs with the most money do often outperform their rivals, but the trade-off between financial and sporting performance is hazardous and many clubs now need to chase <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1044500516000160">multiple objectives</a>. Remember the devastating failure at Leeds United in 2003 when creditors were <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/football/2004/mar/07/sport.features1">owed nearly £100m</a> after the club chased the dream of playing in the Champions League?</p>
<p>With this comes a need to deviate from the original strategy to maximise short-term performance and retain your position in the world’s richest football league. For example, Swansea City, despite being a little busier this season, is the only club to have generated a net profit on their transfer activity during the last five years, while the two Manchester Clubs have spent over £1 billion between them in the search for the title and <a href="http://www.transferleague.co.uk/premier-league-last-five-seasons/transfer-league-tables/premier-league-table-last-five-seasons">European football</a>. This might be good financially, but Swansea also spent Christmas in the relegation zone <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/jan/04/bob-bradley-denies-swansea-players-called-him-ronald-reagan">and sacked manager Bob Bradley</a> after only 85 days in charge. Aston Villa, meanwhile, failed to spend a penny in January last season, effectively sealing their own relegation without putting up a fight. </p>
<p>Newcastle by contrast went big. The club topped the spending table with nearly £30m, but were still relegated, much to the delight of their north-east neighbours, Sunderland, who spent less (still a chunky £18m) and survived. </p>
<p>Watford also went for it, spending about £19m and maintained their league spot but dropped four places. Norwich also spent heavily (£25m) and managed to drop five league places, were relegated and are now playing Championship football in 2016-17. </p>
<p>So, what does this tell us? Well, it tells us that whether your club is struggling, or even challenging for trophies, the temptation is always to spend your way out of trouble. Buying new players appeases the terraces and might even buy the manager some more time. New signings often rekindle the feel good factor but spending money on the wrong players is often worse than doing nothing at all.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/70631/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Everything is in place for a spending spree this January, but some data crunching shows successful spending is elusive.Rob Wilson, Principal Lecturer in Sport Finance, Sheffield Hallam UniversityDan Plumley, Senior Lecturer in Sport Business Management, Sheffield Hallam UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/534772016-01-22T15:54:36Z2016-01-22T15:54:36ZReal and Atletico Madrid transfer bans won’t halt trafficking of young players in football<p>Two of Spain’s biggest football clubs, Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/35313998">will be banned</a> from registering players for the next two transfer windows after breaching rules that regulate the transfer of under-18s. While such punishment is a welcome sign that FIFA takes the welfare of children seriously, its current scattergun approach to punishing clubs who transgress the rules is clearly not working.</p>
<p>The two Spanish clubs are accused of breaching a <a href="http://www.fpf.pt/Portals/0/Documentos/Centro%20Documentacao/FIFA/regulationsonthestatusandtransferofplayersapril2015e_neutral.pdf">FIFA regulation</a> that prohibits the international transfer of players under the age of 18. There are some exceptions, including that transfers between two clubs in Europe can take place from the age of 16, and when a young player’s parents move to the country in which the club is based for reasons unrelated to football. </p>
<p>Following investigations by FIFA, football’s governing body said it <a href="http://www.fifa.com/governance/news/y=2016/m=1/news=atletico-de-madrid-and-real-madrid-sanctioned-for-international-transf-2755486.html">had found</a> irregularities in the registration of underage players fielded by Real and Atletico, and imposed the transfer bans for all players as well as fines. Both clubs plan to appeal the sanctions. </p>
<p>When FIFA handed down a similar ban to FC Barcelona in 2014, it <a href="http://www.fifa.com/governance/news/y=2014/m=4/news=spanish-barcelona-sanctioned-for-international-transfers-minors-2313003.html">was clear</a> that it viewed the moving of a child across an international border for the purposes of playing the game to be contrary to the child’s best interests. </p>
<p>Clubs that uncover the next superstar from abroad and secure their services for minimal cost have a lot to gain both commercially and in sporting success. But transfers can have a potentially damaging impact on a child’s well-being, development and enjoyment of family life. </p>
<p>In 2009, the then-UEFA president, Michel Platini, <a href="http://www.uefa.org/about-uefa/president/news/newsid=801478.html">described</a> the uprooting of a child from their home country and paying them to play football in Europe as a form of child trafficking. But many within football (including <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/premier-league/wenger-dismisses-platini-transfer-plan-1785287.html">Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger</a>) were vociferous in their defence of the child welfare practices of major European football clubs. </p>
<h2>Opportunity cost</h2>
<p>It is true that the academies of clubs such as Barcelona, Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid (as well as many within the UK) have excellent reputations for nurturing their players. They <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/27/sports/soccer/la-masia-a-model-for-cultivating-soccer-players.html?_r=3&adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1415819298-BQRgetw0iHsNOy/yVEnmMw&">place a high value</a> on educational opportunity and personal development, as well as offering elite football training. </p>
<p>But FIFA does not see providing a young player with the bells and whistles experience of an elite football academy as a defence to a violation of its regulations. This defence was unsuccessfully <a href="http://www.fcbarcelona.com/club/detail/article/official-statement-from-fc-barcelona-on-the-sanction-imposed-by-fifa-s-disciplinary-commission">argued by Barcelona</a> in its challenge to the 2014 sanction.</p>
<p>There is also a murky side to the recruitment of young footballers from abroad. <a href="http://www.bloomsbury.com/uk/the-lost-boys-9781472914958/">Significant evidence</a> exists of “trafficking” networks operating in developing regions of the world, exploiting the dreams of young boys from very poor backgrounds to become professional footballers. <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/sport/library/documents/study_on_sports_agents_in_the_eu_en.pdf">Rogue agents</a> promise trials at major European clubs for a fee paid by the player’s family, which often never materialises. </p>
<p>Players who do travel to Europe, often on false documents, have found themselves <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/15296412">abandoned</a> following an unsuccessful or nonexistent trial, with no formal immigration status and no way of returning home. Last year, the International Centre for Sports Security <a href="http://s.telegraph.co.uk/graphics/projects/football-the-dark-side-of-transfers/index.html">told The Telegraph</a> it has heard estimates that there are up to 15,000 trafficked players in Europe. </p>
<h2>Are outright bans the answer?</h2>
<p>The bans imposed on Atletico and Real – for the two transfer windows in July-August 2016 and January 2017 – seem to be a concerted effort by FIFA to target transgressions by major European clubs. Up until relatively recently, cases had focused on smaller clubs. The Danish club, FC Midtjylland, <a href="http://jurisprudence.tas-cas.org/sites/CaseLaw/Shared%20Documents/1485.pdf">complained</a> to the Court of Arbitration for Sport in 2009 that it was being made a scapegoat for practices in relation to young foreign players that were known to be deployed by Europe’s elite clubs. </p>
<p>But we cannot assume that an outright prohibition on the international recruitment of young players is the most effective way of protecting the welfare of child footballers. The ban on under-age transfers has been in place since 2002, yet a buoyant international trade in young footballers still exists. So questions remain about how effective it is. </p>
<p>The potential benefits of a successful career in football for a child from a developing region of the world whose educational and professional opportunities are limited should not be forgotten. There is a fine balance to be struck between protecting a child’s welfare, and denying them the opportunity to train at an elite football academy. This could give them the chance of enjoying a highly lucrative career playing a sport they love – and bring positive effects on their health and educational opportunities. </p>
<p>Instead of imposing an outright ban on international transfers of minors, FIFA’s efforts might well be better targeted at what happens when they do take place. Regulations should ensure that transfers happen with the maximum regard for the child’s right to access education and the highest possible standards of healthcare, and to maintain close contact with their parents. Alongside robust sanctions against rogue agents who effectively operate as people traffickers, this approach might well prove a more effective tool in safeguarding the welfare of young players.</p>
<p>A new approach is needed: the current sanctioning of European clubs for violations of FIFA’s regulations has not proven to be an effective way of addressing the more insidious side of the recruitment of young foreign players.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/53477/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eleanor Drywood does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Prohibiting the transfer of under-18s hasn’t stopped it happening. Football needs a new approach.Eleanor Drywood, Senior Lecturer, Liverpool Law School, University of LiverpoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/311942014-09-02T15:17:36Z2014-09-02T15:17:36ZDesperate times for Man Utd at the heart of deadline day drama
<p>Football’s transfer window, like the post-Christmas sales, sees buyers frantically rushing around flush with cash and sellers rubbing their hands with glee. Except that, unlike goods in Selfridges on Boxing Day, player transfer fees and salaries only ever seem to go up. </p>
<p>The latest transfer window is no different: <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/davidnicholson/2014/09/02/english-premier-league-transfers-smash-through-billion-dollar-barrier/">£835m spent in the Premier League</a>, £149m of it spent by Manchester United alone. The total figure is almost double what was spent in Spain’s La Liga (£425m), and is more than triple what was spent in Italy’s Serie A (£260m) and Germany’s Bundesliga (£250m). Consider this as an illustration of what has just happened: Hull is hardly Madrid or Milan, yet the Premier League club spent more than the Italian mega-clubs AC, Inter and Napoli put together.</p>
<h2>A bullish league</h2>
<p>Inevitably, many people are pointing to television revenues generated by the Premier League as the reason behind clubs’ willingness to flash their cash on players. As I have <a href="https://theconversation.com/hard-evidence-how-much-is-the-premier-league-worth-29863">pointed out before</a>, the Premier League is still ahead of the game in selling television rights – domestically, internationally and globally. So powerful has Premier League football become as a televised commodity and so keen is the league to take advantage of this, that rumours are <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/mediatechnologyandtelecoms/media/10559693/Premier-League-aims-to-pit-BSkyB-against-BT-in-early-TV-rights-sale.html">currently circulating</a> it will bring forward the tendering process for the next round of domestic rights sales. </p>
<p>The Premier League is feeling bullish right now and the clubs which form part of it are benefiting from this. Clubs can spend on players with confidence in the future, assured of the massive benefits league membership will bring. Equally, though, clubs are also afraid of the massive costs that failure can bring. </p>
<p>For instance, even though Cardiff City were relegated in possession of <a href="http://m.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/27411682.app">more than £60 million</a> allocated to them by the Premier League, the pressure is now on the club to bounce right back so as not to miss the cash bonanza that English football’s top division has become. Clubs do not want to be in this position and are prepared to spend big on players to try and avoid it in the first place.</p>
<p>But there has been something more besides during this transfer window. Alongside England’s TV money this has been a World Cup year, which always injects some fervour into the transfer market. We might see it as a great sporting event, but for managers the World Cup is akin to the industry’s biggest trade show or its largest employment bureau.</p>
<p>We should also not forget UEFA’s Financial Fair Play initiative. For several years, Europe’s clubs have been carefully monitoring both their own finances and the posturing of European football’s governing body, mindful of the potential sanctions that might be taken against them for non-compliance. </p>
<p>But so far UEFA has not been as draconian as clubs might have imagined and there have been no mass expulsions of clubs from European competition. As such, it is entirely plausible that many clubs felt rather more relaxed and a little more gung-ho than they have in the recent past.</p>
<h2>Multiplier effects</h2>
<p>Yet the distinctiveness of this year’s window has particularly come from two of the world’s mega-clubs – Manchester United and FC Barcelona. In relative terms, both clubs have fallen on hard times in recent years: United, now on their third manager in just over a year, are having problems with succession planning and have failed to qualify for Europe. Barcelona are in the midst of a change from the old to the new, having lost players to age and retirement, and managers to other clubs and illness.</p>
<p>In seeking to reconstruct, Barca have spent £140m on several players, most notably Luis Suarez from Liverpool (for £75m). While the Uruguayan might be known more for his off-the-ball antics, it is players of his calibre that have profoundly changed the English domestic game. Barca’s aggressive spending spree has had a trickle-down effect, introducing liquidity into the player transfer market that has rippled out across the world. </p>
<p>Follow the line: Suarez from Liverpool to Catalonia; Liverpool in for the three L’s of Southampton – Lovren, Lallana and Lambert; Southampton then pay Hull City £12 million for Shane Long – and so the multiplier effect goes on, ad infinitum.</p>
<p>United are in even more of a transition phase than Barcelona; struggling to replace Alex Ferguson, recovering from David Moyes, installing a new and demanding manager, yet bereft of both internally developed talent (such as Beckham, Scholes and Giggs) and externally acquired players (such as Cristiano Ronaldo and Roy Keane). </p>
<h2>The need to ensure success</h2>
<p>Everyone knows these are desperate times at United: selling clubs knew it and so added in a premium to the prices they charged United for their players. Louis Van Gaal and his employers knew it and so they spent what was necessary in an attempt to reassert the club’s preeminent position. Again, this injected liquidity into a rapidly overheating domestic transfer market and, once more, there was a trickle-down effect. </p>
<p>The significance of United’s transfer activity is particularly acute, however. At stake is the club’s business model which is, in essence, premised on the assumption of annual success and its accompanying revenues. </p>
<p>Without success, the club potentially begins to struggle with its debt repayments, its shareholders get agitated, revenue streams suffer, and the club’s league position comes under threat. And not just the club’s position in the Premier League, but also in the <a href="http://www.deloitte.com/view/en_GB/uk/industries/sportsbusinessgroup/sports/football/deloitte-football-money-league/5aa11261e7c5c310VgnVCM3000003456f70aRCRD.htm">Deloitte</a>, <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2014/07/16/the-worlds-50-most-valuable-sports-teams-2014/">Forbes</a> and various other rankings in which United appears. </p>
<p>Furthermore, Chevrolet agreed to pay <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/teams/manchester-united/10603087/Manchester-United-put-their-shirt-on-new-65-million-world-record-deal.html">more than £50m per season</a> for a shirt sponsorship deal with them, while Adidas has just signed a <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-28282444">£750m kit deal</a> with the Manchester club as both corporations wanted to be associated with success.</p>
<p>As such, United is expected by its multitude of other partners to win, prosper and deliver a tangible return to them. Moreover, if United is to preserve its position as one of the most valuable global brands and continue to build its rapidly proliferating portfolio of commercial contracts, then the best way to do this is by signing top (albeit high-cost) players such as Angel Di Maria and Radamel Falcao in order to win games. </p>
<p>Some older readers will remember the bygone days when we used to blame Manchester United for everything. The club’s spending this summer may well herald a return to those times, particularly if Van Gaal can get his eclectic mix of international stars to play as a team and win the Premier League. In the meantime though, as the frenzy of this summer’s transfer window subsides, many of us may wish to revert to our old ways of thinking and contemplate the profound effect that United (and a small number of other global clubs) may have had on our own teams.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/31194/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Football’s transfer window, like the post-Christmas sales, sees buyers frantically rushing around flush with cash and sellers rubbing their hands with glee. Except that, unlike goods in Selfridges on Boxing…Simon Chadwick, Professor of Sport Business Strategy, Coventry UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/311852014-09-02T09:38:33Z2014-09-02T09:38:33ZTime to lift the shroud of secrecy surrounding football transfers<p>Transfer deadline day is over for another year. As always, it brought drama galore, with deals thrown together at the last minute, like the “shock” announcement three hours before the deadline that <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/teams/arsenal/11069159/Arsenal-complete-transfer-of-Danny-Welbeck-from-Manchester-United-after-agreeing-16m-deal-for-England-striker.html">Danny Welbeck would be leaving Manchester United for Arsenal</a>. Meanwhile, Radamel Falcao’s loan move to United was the major signing as Premier League spending hit a record £835m. All this activity is amped by the fact that our knowledge of what goes on is frustratingly limited.</p>
<p>Taking place at the end of January and August every year, deadline day coverage straddles broadcast and print – from the visual extravaganza of <a href="http://www1.skysports.com/transfer-centre/">Sky Sports News</a> to live blogs across the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/football/28678010">BBC</a> and <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/football/live/2014/sep/01/transfer-deadline-day-live">newspaper</a> websites. But, all too often, the sports media spends all day groping around. Sources are unnamed and therefore the audience is unable to ascertain the credibility of the journalist’s information and the motives behind the source.</p>
<h2>Not the whole story</h2>
<p>It is a big leap of faith to ask the audience to trust a story coming from a mystery man. But sports reporters’ hands are often tied as sources refuse to go on the record. And there is a world of difference whether that source is an agent, the selling club or the buying club.</p>
<p>The shroud of secrecy doesn’t stop there and reporters can generally only get as far as finding out fees, contract lengths and wages – if they are lucky. </p>
<p>Yet this is only the partial story. The finer details of contracts such as bonuses, sell-on and release clauses and image rights are rarely available. All too often we hear obscure references to contract talks breaking down without really finding out why. </p>
<p>In the <a href="http://www.premierleague.com/en-gb/news/features/origins-of-transfer-window.html">12 years since the transfer window system was implemented</a>, we have seen not only the growth of agents but also super-agents. Image rights and third-party ownership have emerged as players have become brands and commodities in their own right. </p>
<p>The audience rarely gets to see the complexity behind football business and this means the public perception of football is skewed. The media portrayal of transfer dealings ends up being bright and breezy and full of fun rather than the tough and murky business it really is.</p>
<h2>Media role</h2>
<p>Sports media may have a commercial imperative – to attract viewers and sell advertising – but it can also provide a public service to fans who pay expensive ticket prices and buy merchandise. <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/premier-league/high-ticket-prices-for-premier-league-matches-could-lead-to-the-loss-of-a-generation-of-fans-9659441.html">With concerns over sustainability</a>, the football industry needs to start thinking about taking care of its customers and recognising the role the media can play in this. Social media has brought sports journalists closer to their audience and made them more accountable. Yet there is still a disconnect and distance between football clubs and their fans.</p>
<p>At the same time, there is more rumour and speculation than ever as a result of Twitter. Journalists must balance this with the pressure they’re under to get the story out into the public domain as soon as they can. The pressure to both get it first and get it right is enormous. </p>
<p>There is a risk that the sports journalist is used as a pawn by football clubs who might use them to create a smokescreen or a diversion to throw rivals off the scent for a particular player. The same goes for an agent trying to engineer a move for his client. </p>
<p>Sports journalists must always scrutinise motives when assessing the reliability of their sources - otherwise there is a danger that being in cahoots with them is at the expense of honesty to the audience. With reliable information hard to come by – even if from an official source – they can find themselves confronted by ethical dilemmas because of the secretive and manipulative nature of the transfer business.</p>
<h2>Deal details</h2>
<p>But, by the same token, the sports media should never shy away from reporting the background detail if they have this information on the record. It is very easy to dismiss it as inaccessible or unnecessary to the audience or would make a report overly long. Football fans are knowledgeable and need this detail to make informed opinions and decisions about the clubs they follow.</p>
<p>There is no harm in journalists exploring transfer stories in greater detail in the cold light of day after the frenzy of the transfer window is over. Two years ago, the Portuguese midfielder Joao Moutinho’s proposed move to Tottenham collapsed because of the complexity of a deal which involved a sell-on clause and third-party ownership. <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/teams/tottenham-hotspur/9515146/Tottenham-Hotspur-missed-out-on-Portos-Joao-Moutinho-by-minutes.html">The Telegraph revisited</a> the story the day after the deadline to give a full breakdown of why it didn’t happen. </p>
<p>This is important information to a football fan because it gives an insight into how transfer business works. Yet all too often the media circus has moved on and is more interested in throwing the story forward to the player’s official unveiling, first press conference or debut.</p>
<p>Deadline day is great fun and highly entertaining but it also ends up being a sketchy and superficial portrayal of a complex business. Clubs need to start connecting more with fans - and they could do worse than use the media to show how football really works.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/31185/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simon McEnnis is a training consultant for Sky Sports News.</span></em></p>Transfer deadline day is over for another year. As always, it brought drama galore, with deals thrown together at the last minute, like the “shock” announcement three hours before the deadline that Danny…Simon McEnnis, Senior Lecturer in Sports Media, University of BrightonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/186242013-09-26T13:28:08Z2013-09-26T13:28:08ZLittle known Joe Yoffe could close football transfer window<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/31932/original/9v6tthdm-1380106223.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Shoot fast before the window closes.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bronski beat</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>You probably haven’t heard of English footballer Joe Yoffe. Why would you? Until recently, he played for UMF Selfoss in the second tier of the Icelandic league. But Yoffe could be about to change the way footballers are transferred.</p>
<p>The player has <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/24209800">mooted potential legal action</a> over what he says are unfair rules about when a player can transfer between clubs in Europe. In itself, Yoffe’s claim is unlikely to have the same impact as the decision of the Court of Justice of the European Union in the famous <a href="http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=CELEX:61993J0415:EN:NOT">Jean-Marc Bosman ruling</a>. The Court of Justice’s ruling in Bosman transformed the market for professional football players by outlawing limits on the numbers of foreign players in club teams. The Court also required that players be permitted to move without the payment of a transfer fee upon the expiry of a contract with their club.</p>
<p>Yoffe’s claim is that FIFA’s rules on player transfers outside of the transfer window are in breach of his rights under European Union laws designed to facilitate the free movement of workers within the union.</p>
<p>The case is unusual in that his playing contract with UMF Selfoss comes to an end in October. Under FIFA’s existing rules he would not be eligible to sign for a new club until the transfer window re-opens in January 2014. The transfer rules do permit players who were free agents prior to the closing of a transfer window to sign with new clubs outside of these periods. However, this does not extend to players, like Yoffe, whose contracts end while the window is closed.</p>
<p>Yoffe may well have a case that the rule – which effectively prevents him from employment as a professional footballer for a significant part of the year – is in breach of laws which give nationals of EU Member States the right to seek and take up work elsewhere in the Union.</p>
<p>However, any amendments to the transfer rules would be relatively minor, simply permitting free agents to sign for new clubs irrespective of the point in time at which their contracts came to an end. This would certainly be to the advantage of journeyman players who take advantage of the schedules of different national leagues to play all year round, not just during the traditional August to May season of football’s major European countries.</p>
<p>Yoffe’s path to the Court of Justice would be a long one in any case; any direct legal action would first have to be brought before a national court, which would then have the discretion to refer the matter to the CJEU. Though in the past FIFA has demonstrated a desire to resolve such disputes prior to a court ruling.</p>
<p>Yoffe’s case gives rise to the spectre of a potentially more significant legal threat to one of football’s rules – the concept of the transfer window as it applies to all transfers.</p>
<p>There is no doubt that the transfer window system imposes limits on the free movement of professional footballers, meaning for much of the season they are unable to move between clubs. EU law will only permit such limitations where they are justified as a proportionate response to important sporting needs.</p>
<p>The Court of Justice has previously ruled – in a <a href="http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=CELEX:61996CJ0176:EN:HTML">case relating to basketball</a> – that transfer windows may be legitimate in the interests of team stability and ensuring competitive balance between teams. The transfer window, however, cannot automatically be regarded as being legitimate; the presumption is that, in the absence of evidence to the contrary, such rules are an unlawful restriction. This point was emphasised by a <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/sport/news/20130828b-study-hgp-rule_en.htm">recent report</a> commissioned by the European Commission in relation to the <a href="http://www.premierleague.com/en-gb/fans/faqs/home-grown-player-rule.html">“home grown player” rule</a>.</p>
<p>There are certainly those within the game who believe the transfer window serves no useful purpose. It is now down to the football authorities to ensure they have a sound case for its continuation. Otherwise we face a situation where everyone, from Joe Yoffe to Lionel Messi, becomes a journeyman, moving wherever the next pay cheque takes them.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/18624/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simon Boyes received funding from The International Centre for Sports Studies. He was awarded a Joao Havelange Scholarship in 2011.</span></em></p>You probably haven’t heard of English footballer Joe Yoffe. Why would you? Until recently, he played for UMF Selfoss in the second tier of the Icelandic league. But Yoffe could be about to change the way…Simon Boyes, Principal Lecturer in Law, Nottingham Trent UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.