tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/transport-use-37476/articlestransport use – The Conversation2021-07-06T15:00:28Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1630952021-07-06T15:00:28Z2021-07-06T15:00:28ZNigeria doesn’t have a coherent strategy to manage freight: how it can get there<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/409649/original/file-20210705-27-12xd6gx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Nigeria needs more than trucks to achieve effective freight management. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Google images </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Nigeria’s transport network is largely in a state of <a href="https://oxfordbusinessgroup.com/overview/moving-forward-two-major-policy-plans-have-shaped-sector%E2%80%99s-growing-infrastructure-and-mid-term">disrepair</a> due to inadequate investment over the decades, economic and population growth, and ineffective policies and plans. </p>
<p>For instance, Tin Can and Apapa ports in Lagos continue to suffer from inadequate cargo handling equipment. This results in <a href="https://doi.org/10.4102/jtscm.v9i1.180">expensive delays</a>. And when goods are eventually cleared, absence of rail connectivity results in them having to be hauled over poor and congested roads to the northern and eastern parts of the country. </p>
<p>These factors often result in accidents, breakdowns and further delays. All are detrimental to the economy.</p>
<p>Such ineffectiveness is in spite of a series of national <a href="https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/GPP/article/view/7011;https://isdsnet.com/ijds-v2n2-5.pdf">transport policies</a>. Reforms were initiated in 2003, 2008 and 2010. These paid some attention to the possibility of intermodalism – ensuring trucked goods are moved on to rail or water, and back to truck for final delivery. These reforms also considered privatisation and public-private partnerships. However, none of these policies and reforms made a significant difference. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.scielo.org.za/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1684-19992016000100012">Costs</a> associated with ineffective and inefficient national transportation and logistics systems are well documented. The International Trade Administration, an agency of the US government, citing a survey by the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, showed that the Nigerian economy loses an estimated revenue of <a href="https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/nigeria-logistics-sector">N3.46 trillion</a> annually. </p>
<p>Nigeria connects to the global and regional economy through international maritime shipping and air while its internal connections are mostly by road and rail movements. Given this, any freight logistics plan for the country must be seen as part of a global supply chain network.</p>
<p>In my view, the time has come for a serious consideration of an overarching and holistic national freight <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01441647.2016.1182793">logistics strategy</a> for Nigeria for the next few decades.</p>
<p>It would bring together all tiers of government and industry to provide a coordinated, national multi-modal approach to freight planning. And it would address Nigeria’s freight challenges, while supporting its long term international competitiveness.</p>
<p>As an <a href="https://eprints.qut.edu.au/25502/">experienced logistics</a> analyst, consultant, scholar and educator in the developing and developed worlds, I have come across a range of relatively effective national <a href="https://www.portsregulator.org/images/documents/National_Freight_Logistics_Strategy.pdf">freight logistics strategies</a> such as those of South Africa, Panama, Vietnam and Thailand. </p>
<p>They provide useful benchmarks for what is possible.</p>
<h2>Why plans haven’t worked</h2>
<p>Firstly, transport traditionally gets constant attention from public authorities. But logistics and supply chain management is often <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01441647.2016.1182793">considered</a> to be a private business-oriented activity. </p>
<p>Public authorities should be paying much closer attention to it, especially in relation to its integration with trade, and the economy. </p>
<p>Secondly, decision makers still take a piecemeal view and approach. This is clear from the fact that there are a number of disparate plans that touch on transport. These include the <a href="https://nesgroup.org/storage/app/public/policies/National-Intergrated-Infractructure-Master-Plan-2015-2043_compressed_1562697068.pdf">Nigeria Integrated Infrastructure Master Plan</a> which was put in place in March 2015 by the National Planning Commission. And then there’s the <a href="https://statehouse.gov.ng/policy/economy/economic-recovery-and-growth-plan/">Economic Recovery and Growth Plan</a> which was approved by the government in 2016 for execution in the period 2017 to 2020. </p>
<p>Similarly, there are several oversight agencies. For example, air transport alone has three – the <a href="https://www.nama.gov.ng/">Nigerian Airspace Management Agency</a>, <a href="https://ncaa.gov.ng/">Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority</a> and the <a href="https://www.faan.gov.ng/">Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria</a> – but none has a freight focus. </p>
<p>A piecemeal approach results in insufficient integration of trade and economic considerations in the design, operation and management of the national transport system. The outcome is poor logistics and supply chain management.</p>
<h2>What the plan needs to cover</h2>
<p>A well-developed <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1785965">freight logistics strategy</a> should be integrated and overarching. It should <a href="https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/IJPDLM-10-2014-0243/full/pdf?title=the-benefits-of-logistics-clustering">facilitate</a> the safe and efficient movement of freight within the country. It would also integrate the country seamlessly within the West African sub-region and beyond.</p>
<p>The plan should address sources of freight generation, commodity flows and associated <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-019-09995-5">data-based modelling</a>. It should also cover the transportation and distribution industry and workforce, storage and warehousing location principles, and movement of bulk commodities, containers and general cargo through major ports, airports, inland dry ports, transport corridors and intermodal terminals. </p>
<p>In addition <a href="https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/nigeria-logistics-sector">the plan</a> should cover railroad access, water port access and air cargo access to allow efficient access of bulk freight to support agricultural regions, production clusters, local industries, businesses and consumers. </p>
<p>Lastly, the strategy should address compatibility of data and information standards, platforms and systems. This would ensure smooth interactions between trading partners and carriers, as well as the introduction of modern and productive freight technologies. South Africa, Panama, Thailand and Vietnam are some examples Nigeria can learn from.</p>
<h2>How it can be achieved</h2>
<p>A national freight logistics strategy like this would be different from the myriad existing government plans and policies. For example, it would reduce transaction and coordination costs for freight operations and the economy as a whole. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/transport/freight/freight-supply-chain-submissions/RDA_Hunter.pdf">The policy</a> can be developed through systematic freight research based on accurate data and other evidence from stakeholders. This may include a series of nationwide inquiries into the priorities for national freight and supply chains. </p>
<p>Other relevant data and information can be collected through industry partnerships and extensive non-partisan consultations. </p>
<p>Each country has its unique issues. A thorough and representative <a href="https://www.webguinee.net/blogguinee/2016/11/nigeria-soldiers-as-policymakers-1960s-1970s">consultation process</a> would therefore be crucial.</p>
<p>A thorough mapping exercise also needs to be done.</p>
<p>Freight networks and hubs consist of multiple visible and invisible economic, social and political connections. These combine to provide an <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1785965">effectively working system</a> and must be identified. </p>
<p>For example, Lagos and Kano are monocentric hubs. What’s meant by this is that freight has to be trucked in or out from the outskirts of the city sprawl, and from other parts of Nigeria at great cost. And with difficulty. A national decentralised system with several hubs across Nigeria would make much more sense. This would allow logistics facilities and infrastructure to be located closer to the sources of major freight generation and consumption, and closer to key transport corridors.</p>
<p>This would make freight transport less reliant on Lagos ports. In turn this would ease the pressure on transport networks. This has positive implications for efficiency, productivity, transport emissions, noise reduction and social equity.</p>
<p>Consideration should therefore be given to several other hubs outside of Lagos, Kano, Port Harcourt and Abuja. For instance, Enugu-Onitsha may serve as a freight hub to support manufacturing and trade, while Makurdi or a similar middle belt city can serve as hub for the food producing regions of the area.</p>
<p>Overall, an audit must be undertaken to identify regulatory, economic or environmental challenges. Skills and geography also need to be part of the picture. </p>
<p>Nigeria’s current approach to the movement of freight is fragmented. It needs a single point of national accountability. </p>
<p>While the current emphasis on road infrastructure projects is good, an integrated freight logistics and supply chain management approach would be better.</p>
<p>Logistics is not as attractive to senior politicians as simply building roads. It therefore struggles to gain political attention. But that’s no reason for the country not to pursue an integrated national freight logistics policy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/163095/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Oloruntoba does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In addition to transport, Nigeria needs to pay more attention to logistics and supply chain management.Richard Oloruntoba, Associate Professor of Supply Chain Management & Supply Chain Management Lead, Curtin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1572432021-04-26T20:06:10Z2021-04-26T20:06:10ZAll your transport options in one place: why mobility as a service needs a proper platform<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/396441/original/file-20210422-15-rwkc5g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=2002%2C1688%2C2631%2C1670&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/knR3v0TZ0IA?utm_source=unsplash&utm_medium=referral&utm_content=creditShareLink">Edi Kurniawan/Unsplash</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Uber, Ola, Car Next Door, GoGet, Urbi and Shareabike have transformed the mobility experience for millions of people, but are just the tip of the looming iceberg of changes in transport. Globally, <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/833743/us-users-ride-sharing-services/">93 million travellers use the Uber app</a> on a monthly basis. More Australians use <a href="http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8098-uber-overtakes-taxis-june-2019-201908260239">Uber (22.9%) than taxis (21.8%)</a>. </p>
<p>The public clearly has an appetite for mobility as a service (<a href="https://maas-alliance.eu/homepage/what-is-maas/">MaaS</a>). People want to plan, book and pay for various forms of transport via a digital platform. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/for-mobility-as-a-service-maas-to-solve-our-transport-woes-some-things-need-to-change-105119">For Mobility as a Service (MaaS) to solve our transport woes, some things need to change</a>
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<p>However, mobility service providers are actors in search of a stage. As with software, computing and entertainment, only when a properly designed and managed platform underpins all the services will the real transformation be unlocked. </p>
<h2>The 3 pillars of the platform</h2>
<p>MaaS is part of a broader evolution as novel technologies have driven the rapid transformation of products and offerings into collections of services. Smartphone applications rely on digital distribution platforms such as Google Play Store, Apple Store, Microsoft Store and Amazon Cloud. Similarly, the evolving technologies and mechanisms of mobility systems require a platform for distribution. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-subscribe-to-movies-and-music-why-not-transport-119538">We subscribe to movies and music, why not transport?</a>
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</em>
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<p>The platform concept should include at least three key elements: </p>
<ol>
<li><p>integrated ticketing and payment: user payments are managed in a uniform and adaptable manner across all providers</p></li>
<li><p>accessible, standardised regulations with open data: regulations and data are managed to be accessible/plug-n-play, secure and equitable</p></li>
<li><p>reputation management: reputations of providers and users are managed in a scalable, fair and efficient way.</p></li>
</ol>
<p>If the platform is designed poorly, markets will be distorted, privacy will be violated, and escalating infrastructure costs will continue to burden taxpayers.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394741/original/file-20210413-23-1v4jje5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="The 3 critical elements of mobility infrastructure as a platform" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394741/original/file-20210413-23-1v4jje5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394741/original/file-20210413-23-1v4jje5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394741/original/file-20210413-23-1v4jje5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394741/original/file-20210413-23-1v4jje5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394741/original/file-20210413-23-1v4jje5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394741/original/file-20210413-23-1v4jje5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394741/original/file-20210413-23-1v4jje5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The critical elements of mobility infrastructure as a platform.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Moving towards integrated payment</h2>
<p>Historically, the transport platform has simply been the physical networks – roads, walking paths, cycle paths, rail and so on – and the ancillary infrastructure such as stations, airports, ports, vehicle storage and parking. Governments must reimagine existing physical infrastructure as part of the mobility services platform. </p>
<p>Recent innovations have focused not only on infrastructure development – autonomous vehicle systems, for example – but also on managing existing infrastructure. For example, cities around the world have moved towards <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0040162515004217?casa_token=A7yKna6gNDsAAAAA:l0gVSeOgdxiC4i4Z5Qy0F2sHSTv0kybrtUaqxpD7FVML5D84ZyYH_7hFWiwAi_foii8UiCYT1WWT">rail automation</a> and smart ticketing for public transport (Opal, Oyster, Octopus and Myki cards). The smart cards market for public transport in the US alone was valued at <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/349589060_Public_Transport_Smart_Cards_Market_was_valued_at_US_5720_Bn_in_2018">US$57.2 billion (A$73.9bn) in 2018</a>.</p>
<p>Setting up seamless payment across services is the first pillar of the platform needed to support mobility as a service. It removes a major barrier to entry for service providers and users. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/396471/original/file-20210422-21-1braeyg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="public transport station with the words 'Did you tag off?' painted on the pavement" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/396471/original/file-20210422-21-1braeyg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/396471/original/file-20210422-21-1braeyg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396471/original/file-20210422-21-1braeyg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396471/original/file-20210422-21-1braeyg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396471/original/file-20210422-21-1braeyg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396471/original/file-20210422-21-1braeyg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396471/original/file-20210422-21-1braeyg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Smart cards were an essential step towards an integrated system of ticketing, payments and patronage data.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:SmartRider_Did_you_tag_off_Welshpool.jpg">Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Significant efforts to integrate payments are ongoing. The other two essential pillars of a MaaS platform require much more attention.</p>
<p>Mobility as a service is seen as a solution to various transport problems, particularly by reducing private vehicle use. Customers are being promised efficient door-to-door multi-modal travel through a single holistic application. In reality, the infrastructure to achieve this is not yet present. </p>
<p>Research has raised questions about its benefits, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856418309601">social impacts and governance</a>. For instance, emphasising smaller-scale, more flexible mobility services in unideal environments can <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0965856418312229?casa_token=QJn8ooRQiPoAAAAA:5lsMxJTdk-YVj36BK19sXNx6zJ00FmizwiwtmJ6RY-xs0Ne-Yn2mbc-sgPN7ZXSSjEElh6qGMUM">increase congestion and undermine urban planning goals</a>. </p>
<h2>Why regulation is essential</h2>
<p>The value and risks the platform creates for mobility providers, users, disadvantaged groups and society must all be kept in mind. The aim should be to create a fair marketplace that enables participation, innovation, equity and quality service. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/billions-are-pouring-into-mobility-technology-will-the-transport-revolution-live-up-to-the-hype-131154">Billions are pouring into mobility technology – will the transport revolution live up to the hype?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<p>The second pillar, accessible, standardised regulations with open data paradigms, will enable service providers to participate in a market that delivers societal benefits. Innovations by providers must conform to a common “plug-n-play” approach that meets the mobility needs of the community as efficiently as possible. Crowd-sourced data (such as from Google or TomTom), user demand data from travel cards and traffic volume data should be available in the one platform for all service providers. </p>
<p>This is a complex undertaking, and data privacy must be a core component. It calls for strong professional leadership.</p>
<p>A big part of the challenge is that <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/A-Cox/publication/227910305_Managing_construction_supply_chains_The_common_sense_approach/links/5c239797299bf12be39c132a/Managing-construction-supply-chains-The-common-sense-approach.pdf">civil infrastructure cannot be unified in the same way as IT infrastructure</a> or cloud computing. Civil infrastructure, especially transport infrastructure, is also expensive to build and maintain over its long lifespan, so the MaaS platform must be able to help optimise existing infrastructure to meet public mobility needs. </p>
<p>Regulation based on the protection and service of society is the only way to achieve this. The regulatory framework must be standardised, fair and accessible. This means any service providers adhering to the standards can join (and leave) the market without “insider” barriers. </p>
<h2>Balancing profit with public benefits</h2>
<p>Though it is a difficult task, we should apply the <a href="https://www.sam-solutions.com/blog/everything-as-a-service-xaas-definition-and-examples/">“everything as a service” concept</a> with clear standardisation and regulation to deliver equitable and sustainable transport services. </p>
<p>This also offers a way to integrate profit maximisation and social welfare within transport but also involving <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0191261520304057">adjacent services such as parking</a>.</p>
<p>In the rail industry, standardisation has enabled more commoditised heavy and light rail systems and vehicles. Commoditisation is a process that creates reliable nearly identical products – rail services in this case – in the eyes of consumers. They can choose between these competing products based on cost and which best suits their needs at the time. This process has improved the economics, safety, accessibility and technology of rail services. </p>
<p>Over the past decade, the European Commission has implemented laws and policies to create a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0965856413001687">Single European Railway Area</a>. The goal is to revitalise the sector by creating a single market for interoperable rail services that are more innovative and competitive. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/396439/original/file-20210422-17-1c3yw9n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="map showing progress on Single European Railway Area" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/396439/original/file-20210422-17-1c3yw9n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/396439/original/file-20210422-17-1c3yw9n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396439/original/file-20210422-17-1c3yw9n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396439/original/file-20210422-17-1c3yw9n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396439/original/file-20210422-17-1c3yw9n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=616&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396439/original/file-20210422-17-1c3yw9n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=616&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396439/original/file-20210422-17-1c3yw9n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=616&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Single European Railway Area is a long-term project that is starting to show the benefits of integration.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://eu.boell.org/en/rail-the-challenges-of-a-single-european-railway-area">Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung/European Union</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Managing reviews and reputations</h2>
<p>Finally, reputation management is essential for a mobility infrastructure platform. Reviews and reputation management have been a driving force for Uber, <a href="https://www.geekwire.com/2016/amazon-puts-new-limit-customer-reviews-no-5-week-except-verified-purchases/#:%7E:text=%E2%80%9CCustomers%20can%20now%20only%20submit,reviews%20will%20not%20be%20impacted">Amazon</a>, eBay, iTunes, Airbnb etc. </p>
<p>A user-driven reputational management system must be trustworthy, scalable and resistant to tampering and <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342443933_A_robust_reputation_system_using_online_reviews">malignant reviews</a>. Blockchain technologies could help build the required trust.</p>
<p>Mobility will increasingly be delivered as a service to travellers. New technologies combined with social awareness and strong professional leadership will all be needed to develop the platform.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>This article was co-authored by Victor Prados-Valerio, a Senior Associate at the advisory firm TSA Management, who has been a project manager and senior rolling stock engineer on train, light rail and depot procurement projects in Australia and overseas.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/157243/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>This article was co-authored by Victor Prados-Valerio.
S. Travis Waller is a Director at Mobility Thinking Pty Ltd. He receives funding from the Australian Research Council, Transport for NSW, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd and CISCO Systems. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kasun Wijayaratna is a Director at Mobility Thinking Pty Ltd and a Visiting Research Fellow at the Research Centre for Integrated Transport Innovation at UNSW. He has received funding from Transport for NSW and the City of Adelaide. </span></em></p>It has happened with software, computing and entertainment, but we’re still waiting for the platform needed for mobility as a service to reach its full potential.S. Travis Waller, Professor and Head of the School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, UNSW SydneyKasun Wijayaratna, Lecturer in Roads and Transport Engineering, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1506442020-11-25T19:04:31Z2020-11-25T19:04:31ZThink taxing electric vehicle use is a backward step? Here’s why it’s an important policy advance<p>The <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-11/sa-to-introduce-electric-vehicle-user-charge/12869302">South Australian</a> and <a href="https://www.drive.com.au/news/victoria-to-tax-electric-and-plug-in-hybrid-vehicles-from-2021-124619.html?trackLink=SMH1">Victorian</a> governments have announced, and <a href="https://www.news.com.au/technology/motoring/motoring-news/electric-car-tax-spreads-to-new-states/news-story/172ac67ccd8974566e3c65dc26c07048">New South Wales</a> is considering, road user charges on electric vehicles. This policy has drawn scorn from <a href="https://nb.tai.org.au/no_ev_tax?recruiter_id=194711">environmental advocates</a> and <a href="https://thedriven.io/2020/11/21/shameful-victoria-follows-south-australia-and-imposes-electric-car-road-tax/">motor vehicle lobbyists</a> who fear it will slow the uptake of less-polluting vehicles. But, from a longer-term transport policy perspective, a distance-based road user charge on electric vehicles is an important step forward.</p>
<p>Superficially, a charge on electric vehicle use seems misguided. Road sector emissions are the <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/107/8/3382">worst contributors to climate change</a>. Electric vehicles powered by clean energy offer the promise of near-zero emissions. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/transport-is-letting-australia-down-in-the-race-to-cut-emissions-131905">Transport is letting Australia down in the race to cut emissions</a>
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<p>As electric vehicle and renewable energy costs decline we can expect a shift to <a href="https://aemo.com.au/-/media/Files/Electricity/NEM/Planning_and_Forecasting/Inputs-Assumptions-Methodologies/2020/CSIRO-DER-Forecast-Report">full electrification of urban vehicles over the next 30 years</a>. Surely accelerating this transition is an urgent climate task?</p>
<p>The downside lies not in the carbon benefits of these vehicles, but in their use as private passenger transport in congested urban areas and <a href="https://theconversation.com/our-new-pm-wants-to-bust-congestion-here-are-four-ways-he-could-do-that-102249">the costs</a> this use imposes on cities. As renewable energy becomes cheaper, the marginal cost of every kilometre driven is likely to decline. As driving becomes cheaper, more of it is likely to occur.</p>
<p>More driving means more congestion. Inevitably, that increases demand for increasingly expensive road projects, such as Sydney’s WestConnex, or Melbourne’s Westgate Tunnel and North East Link. It certainly will run against the recognition in urban plans such as <a href="https://www.planmelbourne.vic.gov.au/">Plan Melbourne</a> that we must shift to alternative transport modes.</p>
<p>If we don’t have a pricing regime that accounts for the cost of car use in cities, the transition to electric vehicles is likely to work against the wider goals of urban and transport policy. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cars-rule-as-coronavirus-shakes-up-travel-trends-in-our-cities-142175">Cars rule as coronavirus shakes up travel trends in our cities</a>
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<h2>How would distance-based charging work?</h2>
<p>Many urban transport policy advocates have called for distance-based road-user charging to be imposed on all vehicles in cities. This sounds great in theory, but in practice is difficult for technical and political reasons of privacy and surveillance. Such concerns will diminish over time as cars increasingly incorporate automated <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telematics">telematics</a> that necessarily track their movement.</p>
<p>Distance-based road-user charging efficiently matches road use to its costs – of infrastructure, congestion, noise, pollution and deaths. It improves on fuel excise, which drivers can nearly completely evade by using a highly efficient vehicle. It also goes beyond tolling to fund major roads, which typically apply only to specific links.</p>
<p>Second, road-user charging can be varied in response to demand that exceeds road capacities. Higher rates can be applied at peak times to ensure free-flowing traffic and shift travel to other times and modes. Various taxation reviews, including the 2009 <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-10/afts_final_report_part_2_vol_2_consolidated.pdf">Henry Taxation Review</a> and <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/productivity-review/report/productivity-review-supporting9.pdf">Productivity Commission</a> reports, have promoted such policies.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/road-user-charging-belongs-on-the-political-agenda-as-the-best-answer-for-congestion-management-65027">Road user charging belongs on the political agenda as the best answer for congestion management</a>
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<h2>Exactly how big would the disincentive be?</h2>
<p>Would imposing such charges on electric vehicles retard their uptake? </p>
<p>Based on our work with <a href="https://www-sciencedirect-com.ezproxy.lib.rmit.edu.au/science/article/pii/S0966692320309443?utm_campaign=elsOnboarding_Published&utm_medium=email&utm_dgroup=STMJ_AUTH_SERV_PUBLISHED&utm_acid=79567271&SIS_ID=&dgcid=elsOnboarding_Published&CMX_ID=&utm_in=DM82577&utm_source=AC_">ABS Census journey-to-work data</a>, in Melbourne the average daily round-trip commuting distance by car is about 25 kilometres. The proposed Victorian charge is 2.5 cents per kilometre. Thus, in Melbourne the average daily commuter’s road user charge is likely to be 63 cents – $3.13 for a typical five-day working week. Over a 48-week working year that totals A$150, hardly a large sum for most people.</p>
<p>By comparison, a commuter in a conventional vehicle with the average current fuel efficiency of 10.9 L/100km will use about 2.73 litres of fuel on which they pay 42.3 cents per litre in fuel excise. That’s about $1.15 a day, or $5.75 a week. </p>
<p>The average tax saving for electric vehicles compared to conventional vehicles will be about 2.1 cents per kilometre. Electric vehicle drivers will be taxed about 53 cents a day, or $2.64 a week, less for their car work travel. They’ll be about $126 a year better off.</p>
<p>Commuting trips make up about 25% of car use, so electric car users’ overall savings are likely to be even greater. </p>
<p>It is difficult to see how such savings on excise tax are a <em>disincentive</em> to electric vehicle uptake. Fears of a “<a href="https://medium.com/@TheAustraliaInstitute/11-reasons-why-a-great-big-new-tax-on-electric-vehicles-is-a-bad-idea-6bf89c99e688">great big new tax</a>”, as the Australia Institute puts it, seem unfounded, as are concerns that road-user charges would “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/commentisfree/2020/nov/22/tax-on-electric-vehicles-in-south-australia-and-victoria-would-slam-brakes-on-sales">slam the brakes on sales</a>”.</p>
<p>Let’s be clear, the big barrier is the <em>upfront cost</em> of electric vehicles, about <a href="https://www.qld.gov.au/transport/projects/electricvehicles/about/compare">$10,000 more</a> than their conventional equivalents. Advocates for electric vehicles should focus on that difference, and the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/nov/22/well-be-left-behind-australias-electric-car-inertia-is-getting-it-nowhere">failures in Australian government policy</a>, not state road-user charges. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/electric-car-sales-tripled-last-year-heres-what-we-can-do-to-keep-them-growing-131372">Electric car sales tripled last year. Here's what we can do to keep them growing</a>
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<h2>Why taxing actual road use matters</h2>
<p>It needs to be recognised that, with lower marginal costs, electric vehicles are likely to be used more than conventional cars. That would increase pressure on urban road capacity. So while the new road-user charge of 2.5 cents per kilometre is flat across the time of day or the route driven, this will likely need to change.</p>
<p>Distance-based road-user charges have been politically controversial. Imposing a tiny charge on a <a href="https://theconversation.com/electric-car-sales-tripled-last-year-heres-what-we-can-do-to-keep-them-growing-131372">minority vehicle type</a> is an expedient way of introducing a needed reform. Fewer than <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/tourism-and-transport/motor-vehicle-census-australia/latest-release">1.8%</a> of vehicles in Australia are currently electric or hybrid. But as all cars become electric, distance-based road charges will become an increasingly powerful policy tool. </p>
<p>Thanks to advancing telematics, transport planners will eventually be able to impose variable road-user charging by time of day and route, similar to ride-hailing companies’ “surge” pricing. We could then apply novel approaches such as a cap-and-trade system. A city could allocate its motorists an annual kilometres quota, which is then traded to create a market for excess urban road use. </p>
<p>The private car could also be integrated into <a href="https://theconversation.com/for-mobility-as-a-service-maas-to-solve-our-transport-woes-some-things-need-to-change-105119">mobility-as-a-service</a> models. </p>
<p>Road-user charges could be regressive for people with few alternatives to the car. But telematic tracking could allow for lower charges for less affluent households in dispersed outer suburbs with few other options.</p>
<p>Beyond fuel, private cars have high environmental costs in <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/green-guide/buying-guides/car/environmental-impact/">steel, plastic, aluminium, glass and rubber use</a>. And <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-elephant-in-the-planning-scheme-how-cities-still-work-around-the-dominance-of-parking-space-87098">about one-third of our increasingly valuable urban space</a> is given over to cars in the form of roads and parking. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/freeing-up-the-huge-areas-set-aside-for-parking-can-transform-our-cities-85331">Freeing up the huge areas set aside for parking can transform our cities</a>
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<p>To reduce this demand on resources and space, car use could be priced to shift travel to, and fund, more sustainable and city-friendly modes such as public transport, walking and cycling. We could even price the car out of cities completely. The most environmentally sustainable car, after all, is no car at all.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/150644/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>RMIT University receives funding from AHURI and the Department of Environment to support Jago Dodson's research.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>RMIT University receives funding from AHURI and the Department of Environment to support Terry Li's research.</span></em></p>Electric vehicles would lower emissions, but if their lower running costs lead to increased car use that creates a whole lot of other costs for our cities.Jago Dodson, Professor of Urban Policy and Director, Centre for Urban Research, RMIT UniversityTiebei (Terry) Li, Research Fellow, School of Global, Urban and Social Studies, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1488022020-11-01T19:06:48Z2020-11-01T19:06:48ZThe suburbs are the future of post-COVID retail<p>The COVID-19 pandemic delivered a <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-covid-all-but-killed-the-australian-cbd-147848">body blow to CBD retailers</a>, but it’s just the latest of their challenges in recent years. They were already under pressure from <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-03/coronavirus-recession-in-australia-six-graphs-explain/12624250">cautious consumer spending</a>, intense <a href="https://business.nab.com.au/nab-online-retail-sales-index-august-2020-42815/">competition from online retailing</a> and the growth of suburban “<a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwi16pTj99XsAhUGzDgGHToVAVYQFjAAegQIAhAC&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.colliers.com.au%2Fdownload-research%3FitemId%3Dd1c91b17-abd7-4b03-a1d5-90874a6f38fd&usg=AOvVaw3V4dCHIa1neOszR03MtIPY">mega-centres</a>”.</p>
<p>Now, declining commuter foot traffic and an increase in people <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-07/working-from-home-coronavirus-big-productivity-increase/12628764">working from home</a> present new challenges for CBD retailers. Lockdowns, changing work practices and the need for social distancing have left some of Australia’s largest city centres at times resembling <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/gallery/2020/sep/12/melbournes-curfew-descends-and-vibrant-city-becomes-ghost-town-in-pictures">ghost towns</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-covid-all-but-killed-the-australian-cbd-147848">How COVID all but killed the Australian CBD</a>
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<p>Even as <a href="https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/statement-premier-77">restrictions lift</a> and CBDs reopen, it will not be business as normal.</p>
<h2>Stores will shrink</h2>
<p>Retailers that depend heavily on discretionary spending, for items such as <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/retail/clothing-industry-in-decline-as-conscious-consumers-cut-back-20191014-p530ex">clothing, footwear and accessories</a>, have been hit particularly hard.</p>
<p>The latest <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/retail-and-wholesale-trade/retail-trade-australia/latest-release">Australian Bureau of Statistics figures</a> show clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing fell 10.5% in August 2020, in seasonally adjusted terms. Department stores were down 8.9%.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Chart showing changes in retail turnover" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366559/original/file-20201029-19-182olai.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366559/original/file-20201029-19-182olai.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366559/original/file-20201029-19-182olai.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366559/original/file-20201029-19-182olai.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366559/original/file-20201029-19-182olai.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366559/original/file-20201029-19-182olai.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366559/original/file-20201029-19-182olai.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/retail-and-wholesale-trade/retail-trade-australia/latest-release">Retail Trade, Australia, ABS</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>Interestingly, despite an average decline in spending of -0.2% <a href="https://www.ibisworld.com/au/industry/clothing-retailing/407/">between 2015 and 2020</a>, research by <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/asia-pacific/retail-ghost-town">McKinsey in 2019</a> found clothing and footwear retailers increased their selling space by almost 2%.</p>
<p>Clothing, footwear and <a href="https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/retail/david-jones-retailer-flags-footprint-cut-possible-store-closures/news-story/48bce9366f4729595bcbf6ca52e8f5f0">department store retailers</a> are now expected to “right-size” their selling space. McKinsey <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/asia-pacific/retail-ghost-town">predicts</a> a floor-space reduction of more than 10% between now and 2024.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/retail-wont-snap-back-3-reasons-why-covid-has-changed-the-way-we-shop-perhaps-forever-140628">Retail won't snap back. 3 reasons why COVID has changed the way we shop, perhaps forever</a>
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<p>CBD-based department stores have fared worse than those in the suburbs. The <a href="http://investor.myer.com.au/FormBuilder/_Resource/_module/dGngnzELxUikQxL5gb1cgA/file/MYR_FY2020_Results_Presentation.pdf">Myer Annual Report 2020</a>, for example, highlights the impact of COVID restrictions on CBD store sales. Despite reopening all stores (except Melbourne) by <a href="https://insideretail.com.au/news/myer-to-reopen-all-stores-next-week-202005">May 27</a>, CBD store sales fell 33%, whereas suburban store sales contracted by only 9%, in the final seven weeks of the financial year. Myer <a href="http://investor.myer.com.au/FormBuilder/_Resource/_module/dGngnzELxUikQxL5gb1cgA/file/MYR_FY2020_Results_Presentation.pdf">reports</a>: “Low foot traffic in CBDs expected to continue for the foreseeable future.” </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366566/original/file-20201029-15-1y70p76.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart showing Myer online, CBD and other sales" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366566/original/file-20201029-15-1y70p76.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366566/original/file-20201029-15-1y70p76.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366566/original/file-20201029-15-1y70p76.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366566/original/file-20201029-15-1y70p76.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366566/original/file-20201029-15-1y70p76.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366566/original/file-20201029-15-1y70p76.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366566/original/file-20201029-15-1y70p76.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The Myer annual report shows a rise in online sales, a large fall in CBD store sales and smaller fall in other store sales compared to the same period a year earlier.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://investor.myer.com.au/FormBuilder/_Resource/_module/dGngnzELxUikQxL5gb1cgA/file/MYR_FY2020_Results_Presentation.pdf">Myer annual report 2020</a></span>
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<h2>Online shopping is surging</h2>
<p>As COVID shut down cities, Australian shoppers moved online in increasing numbers. The <a href="https://business.nab.com.au/nab-online-retail-sales-index-august-2020-42815/">NAB Online Sales Index</a> estimates Australian consumers spent around $39.2 billion in the 12 months to August 2020. Online shopping now accounts for 11.5% of total retail sales in Australia. </p>
<p>Research from <a href="https://auspost.com.au/content/dam/auspost_corp/media/documents/inside-australian-online-shopping-update-sep2020.pdf">Australia Post</a> shows over 8.1 million households shopped online between March and August this year —
900,000 of them for the first time. In cities around Australia, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-11/shopping-centres-feel-the-pinch-as-retail-moves-online/12651046">foot traffic has become web traffic</a>.</p>
<p>We can clearly see the impacts of this on physical retailers. A number of <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com.au/australia-retail-collapse-2020-1">major retail chains</a> have closed, including Toys ‘R’ Us, Roger David, Esprit, Ed Harry, TopShop and GAP over the past few years.</p>
<h2>CBD workers shift away from commuting</h2>
<p>As an increasing share of people work from home and fewer commute to city centres, the long-term future of CBD retailing looks bleak because of the fall in demand.</p>
<p>This shift in behaviour is likely to be substantial, as transport expert David Hensher recently <a href="https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2020/09/28/australians-want-to-work-from-home-more-post-covid.html">observed</a>:</p>
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<p>The evidence reinforces the fact that as we move through and beyond the COVID-19 period, we can expect commuting activity to decline by an average of 25-30% as both employers and employees see value in a work-from-home plan.</p>
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<p>The ongoing health and economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the required physical distancing measures will force many firms to <a href="https://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/productivity-gains-from-teleworking-in-the-post-covid-19-era-a5d52e99/">introduce telework</a> (working from home) on a large scale. </p>
<p>In Australia, it has been estimated <a href="https://theconversation.com/teleworkability-in-australia-41-of-full-time-and-35-of-part-time-jobs-can-be-done-from-home-140723">39% of all jobs in Australia</a> — 41%of full-time and almost 35% of part-time – can be done from home.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/fancy-an-e-change-how-people-are-escaping-city-congestion-and-living-costs-by-working-remotely-123165">Fancy an e-change? How people are escaping city congestion and living costs by working remotely</a>
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<p>CBD retailing relies on workers and visitors who use public transport. An August 2020 <a href="https://www.transurban.com/content/dam/transurban-pdfs/03/Urban-Mobility-Trends-from-COVID-19.pdf">Transurban report</a> found 84% of daily train users (77% of bus users) in Melbourne said they had reduced their use. Many said they did not expect to return to daily use even after the pandemic. Similar numbers were reported in Sydney and Brisbane.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366560/original/file-20201029-17-1u6lruv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart showing current and expected public transport use" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366560/original/file-20201029-17-1u6lruv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366560/original/file-20201029-17-1u6lruv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366560/original/file-20201029-17-1u6lruv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366560/original/file-20201029-17-1u6lruv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366560/original/file-20201029-17-1u6lruv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366560/original/file-20201029-17-1u6lruv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366560/original/file-20201029-17-1u6lruv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.transurban.com/content/dam/transurban-pdfs/03/Urban-Mobility-Trends-from-COVID-19.pdf">Data: Urban Mobility Trends from COVID-19, Transurban</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>COVID restrictions and declining commuter traffic have also had big impacts on the food and beverage market. According to IBISWorld, Australian restaurant revenue has <a href="https://www.ibisworld.com/au/industry/restaurants/2010/">fallen by 25%</a>, from almost A$20 billion in 2018-19 to just A$15 billion in 2019-20. <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/it-hasn-t-fallen-apart-yet-cafes-in-sydney-s-cbd-on-the-brink-of-disaster-20200320-p54cds.html">Cafe owners</a> are equally feeling the impact, with fewer commuters grabbing their morning coffee and fewer coffee meetings happening around town.</p>
<h2>Back to the future</h2>
<p>With both <a href="http://cbre.vo.llnwd.net/grgservices/secure/CBRE%20Australia%20Retail%20MarketView%20Snapshot%20Q3%202020.pdf?e=1603837660&h=07e3ae7021bad508b0f4675eaae9ad94">commercial and residential rents</a> remaining relatively stable outside CBD zones, and more people choosing to work from home, we can expect to see a growth in “<a href="https://www.warc.com/newsandopinion/news/localism-is-forecast-to-be-a-major-post-pandemic-trend/43612">localism</a>”. </p>
<p>Shopping mall owners have <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/chadstone-set-for-685m-expansion-20191202-p53fyw.html">invested heavily</a> in refurbishing and increasing the floor space of their centres to provide retail, <a href="https://www.afr.com/property/commercial/living-centres-the-future-of-shopping-20190926-p52uzy">hospitality, entertainment, leisure and recreation</a> activities under one roof. Somewhat ironically, these refurbished malls have even <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/15/3999/pdf">appropriated design elements</a> of traditional high streets. </p>
<p>With many more people working from home during the pandemic there has been something of a retail inversion with more people <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/neighbourhood-malls-flourish-as-shoppers-stay-local-20200723-p55eto.html">shopping locally</a>. There are clear signs of a resurgence in local shopping villages and high street retailing. There even appears to be a <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/small-business/spotlight-milk-bars-in-the-age-of-the-macchiato-and-smashed-avo-20190723-p529qs.html">corner store revival</a> of sorts. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/more-than-milk-and-bread-corner-store-revival-can-rebuild-neighbourhood-ties-121244">More than milk and bread: corner store revival can rebuild neighbourhood ties</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>CBD-based retail is at a crossroads, especially in Melbourne and Sydney. Despite restrictions being lifted, the data indicate CDBs may never return to the “bustling metropolises” they once were.</p>
<p>The precarious state of the national economy, government plans to reduce subsidy payments, more people working from home, shopping locally and online, all point to a <a href="https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/consumer/2020/09/29/online-shopping-sales/">bumpy road ahead</a> for CBD retailers. </p>
<p>Major questions are being raised about the future character and function of the CBD and, ultimately, about the structure of Australian cities more broadly.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148802/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>CBD retailers were already struggling before the pandemic. The contrast in fortunes with suburban retail activity is stark, and there are good reasons to think the shift could be permanent.Gary Mortimer, Professor of Marketing and Consumer Behaviour, Queensland University of TechnologyLouise Grimmer, Senior Lecturer in Marketing, University of TasmaniaPaul J. Maginn, Associate Professor of Urban/Regional Planning, The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1421752020-07-20T19:51:14Z2020-07-20T19:51:14ZCars rule as coronavirus shakes up travel trends in our cities<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347826/original/file-20200716-21-1gu713s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C6%2C4193%2C2785&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/sydney-warringah-freeway-rush-hour-traffic-275530691">Taras Vyshnya/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As with other parts of the global economy, COVID-19 has led to rapid changes in transport trends. The chart below shows overall trends for driving, walking and public transport for Australia as of July 17. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/348263/original/file-20200720-17-ogb9ap.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/348263/original/file-20200720-17-ogb9ap.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/348263/original/file-20200720-17-ogb9ap.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348263/original/file-20200720-17-ogb9ap.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348263/original/file-20200720-17-ogb9ap.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348263/original/file-20200720-17-ogb9ap.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348263/original/file-20200720-17-ogb9ap.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348263/original/file-20200720-17-ogb9ap.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Australia-wide mobility trends for the six months from January to July 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.apple.com/covid19/mobility">Apple Mobility Trends</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Unfortunately, the current lockdown of metropolitan Melbourne, which is at odds with trends in Australia’s other biggest cities, is skewing the national average. These data, provided by <a href="https://www.apple.com/covid19/mobility">Apple Mobility Trends</a>, are available for many cities, regions and countries around the world. </p>
<p>Updated daily, the data provide a measure of trends in transport use since early January 2020. The chart below summarises the changes since then in driving, walking and public transport for Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/348265/original/file-20200720-37-1eu4owt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/348265/original/file-20200720-37-1eu4owt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/348265/original/file-20200720-37-1eu4owt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=584&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348265/original/file-20200720-37-1eu4owt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=584&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348265/original/file-20200720-37-1eu4owt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=584&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348265/original/file-20200720-37-1eu4owt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=734&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348265/original/file-20200720-37-1eu4owt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=734&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348265/original/file-20200720-37-1eu4owt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=734&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.apple.com/covid19/mobility">Data: Apple Mobility Trends</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>With the exception of Melbourne, driving has recovered and is now noticeably above pre-pandemic levels.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-avoid-cars-clogging-our-cities-during-coronavirus-recovery-140744">How to avoid cars clogging our cities during coronavirus recovery</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Public transport use is still well below baseline levels. It is recovering – again except for Melbourne – but slowly. The exception is Adelaide where public transport is only slightly below the baseline.</p>
<p>Walking is doing better than public transport. Adelaide, Brisbane and Perth are slightly above the baseline, while Sydney is slightly below it. Melbourne is still down by about a half.</p>
<h2>How badly did lockdowns affect travel?</h2>
<p>The chart below shows the largest declines in driving, walking and public transport were recorded in the period April 4-11. Most of the lowest values coincided with Easter holidays. However, regardless of the holiday, this was the period when levels of transport use were lowest. </p>
<p>The declines are fairly consistent across the cities. For driving, the declines were around 70%. For walking, the declines ranged from 65% to 80%. Public transport recorded declines of 80-89%. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347564/original/file-20200715-27-1a3ppbf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347564/original/file-20200715-27-1a3ppbf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347564/original/file-20200715-27-1a3ppbf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347564/original/file-20200715-27-1a3ppbf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347564/original/file-20200715-27-1a3ppbf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347564/original/file-20200715-27-1a3ppbf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347564/original/file-20200715-27-1a3ppbf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347564/original/file-20200715-27-1a3ppbf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.apple.com/covid19/mobility">Data: Apple Mobility Trends</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The recovery in driving is due, in part, to it being seen as having a lower risk of COVID-19 infection. People <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/city-workers-walk-to-office-to-avoid-public-transport-20200712-p55bbx.html">see public transport as the least safe</a> because of the difficulties of social distancing on potentially crowded commutes. </p>
<p>A study in early March by an MIT economist <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-coronavirus-transportation-data-cities-traffic-mobility/">amplified these fears</a> by associating public transport in New York City with higher rates of COVID-19 infection. Unfortunately, the research had some <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-coronavirus-transportation-data-cities-traffic-mobility/">significant flaws</a>. Health experts have since indicated there is little evidence public transport has been the source of any COIVD-19 infections. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-recovery-public-transport-is-key-to-avoid-repeating-old-and-unsustainable-mistakes-138415">Coronavirus recovery: public transport is key to avoid repeating old and unsustainable mistakes</a>
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<p>Neverthess, public transport agencies are in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/19/us/coronavirus-public-transit.html?referringSource=articleShare">serious financial trouble</a>. In the US, experts are warning that, without large federal subsidies, public transport services are facing drastic cuts, which will impact where people live and work. Such shifts pose a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/19/us/coronavirus-public-transit.html?referringSource=articleShare">threat to the economic viability</a> of cities.</p>
<p>What is known about other transport modes? While comprehensive datasets are not available, evidence is emerging of the impacts on ride, bike and scooter sharing.</p>
<h2>Ride sharing</h2>
<p>As with all other transport modes, the pandemic has had big impacts on ride sharing. However some ride-sharing companies, like Uber, have diversified in recent years into areas such as food and freight delivery. These have provided much-needed <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/marcochiappetta/2020/03/25/uber-eats-demand-soars-due-to-covid-19-crisis/#5663a814580c">revenue</a> during the ride-sharing downturn. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200501005196/en/Global-Ride-Sharing-Market-Affects-COVID-19-2018">Market analysts are predicting</a> ride sharing will recover and continue to grow. This is due to need for personal mobility combined with <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/urbanization">increasing urbanisation</a> and <a href="https://investorplace.com/2019/04/4-charts-car-ownership-over/#:%7E:text=Car%20Ownership%20Rates%20Are%20Dropping%20for%20the%20First%20Time%20In%20Modern%20History&text=From%201960%20to%202010%2C%20the,9.1%25%20from%202010%20to%202015.">falling car ownership</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/billions-are-pouring-into-mobility-technology-will-the-transport-revolution-live-up-to-the-hype-131154">Billions are pouring into mobility technology – will the transport revolution live up to the hype?</a>
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<hr>
<h2>Bike sharing</h2>
<p>Globally, transport officials are predicting a long-term surge in bicycle use. Cycling appears to be booming at the expense of public transport.</p>
<p>Beijing’s three largest bike share schemes reported a <a href="https://www.itdp.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/The-impact-of-Covid-on-Urban-Traffic-in-China.pdf">150% increase</a> in use in May. In New York City, volumes <a href="https://fortune.com/2020/06/15/bicycles-coronavirus-cities-lime-citi-bike/">grew by 67%</a>. Bike sales in the US almost <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/18/nyregion/bike-shortage-coronavirus.html">doubled in March</a>. </p>
<p>In response, many cities are providing more cycling infrastructure, with cities like <a href="https://www.uci.org/news/2020/pop-up-bike-lanes-a-rapidly-growing-transport-solution-prompted-by-coronavirus-pandemic">Berlin and Bogota</a> leading the way with “pop-up” bike lanes. New Zealand has become the <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/carltonreid/2020/04/13/new-zealand-first-country-to-fund-pop-up-bike-lanes-widened-sidewalks-during-lockdown/#8b4b57b546e1">first country</a> to fund so-called “tactical urbanism”.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-cant-let-coronavirus-kill-our-cities-heres-how-we-can-save-urban-life-137063">We can't let coronavirus kill our cities. Here's how we can save urban life</a>
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<p>Melbourne has announced <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/car-parks-out-footpaths-and-cycling-lanes-in-as-city-prepares-for-post-covid-commuters-20200507-p54qrp.html">12km of pop-up bike lanes</a> and is <a href="https://www.smartcitiesworld.net/news/news/melbourne-fast-tracks-40km-of-bike-lanes-5371">fast-tracking an extra 40km</a> of bike lanes over the next two years. Sydney has added <a href="https://www.governmentnews.com.au/sydney-gets-10km-of-pop-up-cycleways/">10km of pop-up cycleways</a>. Use of some Brisbane bikeways has <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/pop-up-bike-lanes-for-brisbane-too-slow-for-quiet-lockdown-period-20200717-p55czz.html">nearly doubled</a>, leading to criticism of delays in providing pop-up lanes.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.traffictechnologytoday.com/news/covid-19-news/covid-19-london-to-rapidly-expand-space-for-cycling-and-walking-post-lockdown.html">London</a> intends to rapidly expand both cycling and walking infrastructure in anticipation of a ten-fold increase in bicycle use and a five-fold increase in pedestrians. This complements a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/12/business/paris-bicycles-commute-coronavirus.html?searchResultPosition=1">£250 million</a> (A$448 million) UK government program to reallocate more space for cyclists.</p>
<p>Paris plans to add <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/20200505-paris-to-turn-more-streets-over-to-bicycles-as-covid-19-coronavirus-lockdown-lifts">50km of pop-up and permanent bikeways</a> in coming months. It’s also <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/12/business/paris-bicycles-commute-coronavirus.html?searchResultPosition=1">offering</a> a €500 (A$818) subsidy to buy an electric bike and €50 to repair an existing bike. </p>
<p>Milan will add <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/21/milan-seeks-to-prevent-post-crisis-return-of-traffic-pollution">35km of bikeways</a> as part of its Strade Aperte Plan. The Italian government is providing a <a href="https://www.bicyclenetwork.com.au/newsroom/2020/05/21/italy-funds-recovery-by-bike/">70% subsidy capped at €500</a> for people to buy a new bicycle. </p>
<p>We will have to wait to see whether all this interest translates into longer-term mode change.</p>
<h2>E-scooters</h2>
<p>E-scooter use has declined, as has the value of e-scooter companies. Lime, one of the larger companies, was valued at <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-07/uber-leads-170-million-investment-into-lime-electric-scooters">US$2.4 billion (A$3.4 billion) last year but is down to US$510 million</a>. Nevertheless, investor interest continues. Uber, Alphabet, GV and Bain and others put <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-07/uber-leads-170-million-investment-into-lime-electric-scooters">$US170 into Lime</a> in May. </p>
<p>In Europe, ride-sharing company Bolt plans to expand its e-scooter and e-bike services to <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathankeane/2020/05/15/uber-and-bolt-are-betting-on-an-e-scooter-recovery-after-the-pandemic/#2d5103a57432">45 cities in Europe and Africa</a> this year. Another positive sign for this mode is that the UK, where e-scooters have not been street legal, has begun <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/carltonreid/2020/06/19/e-scooter-trial-rolls-out-june-22-uk-riders-need-driving-licenses-wont-be-allowed-on-sidewalks/#52b6adb54153">trials of rental e-scooters</a>.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/e-scooter-legalisation-what-you-need-to-know-141820">E-scooter legalisation: what you need to know</a>
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</em>
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<p>It is still too early to predict the long-term impacts of COVID-19 on transport. What the data show is that driving has recovered and is even exceeding pre-pandemic levels. Current trends suggest active mobility – cycling, scooters and walking – may gain mode share. Whether public transport can recover is questionable, unless a vaccine becomes available.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/142175/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Neil G Sipe receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>Car use and cycling have soared to above pre-pandemic levels in our biggest cities (Melbourne is an obvious exception). Walking is not far behind, but public transport is being shunned.Neil G Sipe, Honorary Professor of Planning, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1252292019-10-28T00:43:42Z2019-10-28T00:43:42ZThe hidden traffic impacts of private schooling<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298221/original/file-20191023-149555-ldqkhx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5406%2C3493&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The school run for private school students is typically much longer than for government school students.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">kryzhov/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In Australia today, just over <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/4221.02018?OpenDocument">40% of secondary school children and almost 30% of primary school children</a> attend a private school. By contrast, in the UK <a href="https://www.spectator.co.uk/2019/06/britain-is-becoming-more-meritocratic-not-less/">only 7% of children are privately educated</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.griffith.edu.au/cities-research-institute/research/transport-group">Our research</a> shows not only do more students travel by car to private secondary schools in Australia, their car trips are almost twice as long as for government school students. As these trips are in peak hour, private schooling has a disproportionate impact on traffic congestion.</p>
<p>Commonwealth subsidies of private schools and their charitable status have underpinned skyrocketing enrolments. Questions over <a href="https://theconversation.com/should-wealthy-private-schools-and-hospitals-have-charity-status-in-australia-73055">whether private schools should pay tax</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/private-schooling-has-little-long-term-pay-off-30303">why they offer questionable graduate outcomes</a>, their tendency towards “<a href="https://theconversation.com/data-shows-white-flight-to-private-schools-979">white flight</a>” and social polarisation, and basic fairness have long been debated. </p>
<p>But what if, in weighing up the pros and cons of private schooling, and in calculating their economic costs versus benefits, we’ve all missed something rather important? Until now, no one has considered the impacts on city traffic. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/children-in-the-car-era-bad-for-them-and-the-planet-105377">Children in the car era: bad for them and the planet</a>
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<p>We’re helping the Queensland government improve its main transport models for Brisbane and southeast Queensland. Experts use these models to assess the best policies and projects to try to save us from congestion and to provide access to the goods, jobs and services we all need in life. </p>
<h2>What did the research find?</h2>
<p>We are looking at how one might better model school travel. To do so we explored the latest data from the <a href="https://www.data.qld.gov.au/dataset?q=household%20travel%20survey&sort=score%20desc%2C%20metadata_modified%20desc">Queensland Household Travel Survey</a>.
The datasets include all the trips to school made by over 3,000 primary and secondary school children. These surveys do not report if the child went to a public or private school. But we used advanced computing methods to match the school trip destinations with a set of known public and private school locations in the South East Queensland region. This created the first set of public-versus-private school trips we know of. </p>
<p>We could then look at the share of trips made by walking, cycling, public transport and car. We were also able to report the distances travelled to the different school types. </p>
<p>We presented our results in Canberra at the <a href="https://www.conferenceco.com.au/2019ATRF/">Australasian Transport Research Forum</a>.</p>
<p>At the primary school level, where fewer children attend private schools and the lower-cost Catholic school system plays a bigger role, the differences are modest. A slightly greater share of children are driven to private schools, but the average distance for those car trips is only around one kilometre more. It’s a problem, but one of similar scale to the unsustainable and unhealthy journeys made to public primary schools across Australia. </p>
<p>At secondary school level, where the non-Catholic independent schools have greater market share, only 1.5% more children are driven to private secondary schools (56.5% to 54.9%) and a few more drive themselves. But the car trips to those schools are almost twice as long as to the public schools. </p>
<p>The private secondary school children are travelling 7.8km each way, on average, to get to and from school. As this is school travel, it happens in the morning peak hour, the worst time for traffic congestion in our cities. Private secondary schooling appears to have a highly disproportionate impact. </p>
<p>The landscape of private schooling in southeast Queensland is problematic. Newer private schools have opened in odd locations on the edges of existing communities, or well beyond the suburban fringe. Even some of the older established <a href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Public_Schools_Association_of_Queensland">GPS</a> schools (the “elite” ones) are far from public transport. A few offer private buses, but many parents are left with little choice. They have to chauffeur their children. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-does-the-average-australian-family-spend-up-to-22-000-every-year-on-transport-64233">FactCheck: does the average Australian family spend up to $22,000 every year on transport?</a>
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<h2>Does the extra car travel matter?</h2>
<p>Education departments probably don’t care. But if governments are focused on reducing congestion, which their transport departments all are, and if they are looking to reduce school-related congestion effects, then private secondary schools are the worst offenders. </p>
<p>We can’t just look to the transport departments to fix such problems. They’re not responsible for creating the unsustainable car-based schooling landscape they somehow must try to serve. </p>
<p>It should also worry us for the individuals involved. Car-based travel is far from optimal for children’s development. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/designing-suburbs-to-cut-car-use-closes-gaps-in-health-and-wealth-83961">Designing suburbs to cut car use closes gaps in health and wealth</a>
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<p>A litany of studies show physically active travel such as walking and cycling, including to and from public transport, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1123/jpah.2015-0043">is better for physical and mental health</a>, as well as for social connectedness. The links between <a href="https://doi.org/10.14485/HBPR.2.1.3">children’s physical activity and student learning</a> are also well established.</p>
<p>Given road congestion costs in Australia are expected to exceed <a href="https://www.aaa.asn.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/AAA-Congestion-Report-2018-FINAL.pdf">A$30 billion a year by 2030</a>, we suggest the congestion costs of Australia’s private school funding model should be fully calculated, costed and included when we weigh up the costs and benefits. The Commonwealth has options should it wish to tighten up in other ways. This would include not financially supporting any new private schools located far from existing communities or good public transport services.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/125229/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Burke receives funding from the Queensland Government Department of Main Roads, the Motor Accident and Insurance Commission, the City of Gold Coast, Transport for NSW, Queensland Airports Limited and the Australian Research Council. He has memberships of voluntary committees with the National Heart Foundation, the Australasian Transport Research Forum and the Pedestrian and Bicycle Transport Institute of Australasia.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Yiping Yan is the recipient of an embedded work placement at the Queensland Government Department of Transport and Main Roads.</span></em></p>An analysis of trips to school has found the extra time and distance private secondary school students travel is a significant contributor to morning peak-hour congestion.Matthew Burke, Associate Professor, Cities Research Institute, Griffith UniversityYiping Yan, PhD Candidate, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1205982019-07-29T20:25:32Z2019-07-29T20:25:32ZAustralian city workers’ average commute has blown out to 66 minutes a day. How does yours compare?<p>The average weekly commuting time in Australia has increased considerably since 2002. According to the latest Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) <a href="https://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/hilda/publications/hilda-statistical-reports">Survey released today</a>, workers averaged 3.7 hours’ commuting time per week in 2002, but this had increased to 4.5 hours by 2017. </p>
<p>In 2017, workers in mainland state capitals (Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth) had consistently longer commute times than those living elsewhere. These city workers typically spent more than an hour travelling to and from work each day. The average was about 66 minutes. This is a 20% increase from the average of around 55 minutes in 2002. </p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-422" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/422/e916ff5b19c0125d8d290c27d3345fb64edec1e2/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>As in past surveys, Sydney had the longest average daily commutes (71 minutes). In 2017, it was followed by Brisbane (67 minutes), Melbourne (65 minutes), Perth (59 minutes) and Adelaide (56 minutes). Reasons for the increasing commute time vary among different cities but may include increased road congestion, urban expansion and poor public transport services.</p>
<p>Average daily commuting times across Australia also increased from about 49 minutes in 2002 to almost one hour in 2017. </p>
<img src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/666/Mean.gif?1564036035" width="100%">
<p>Workers in the Northern Territory had the shortest commutes in 2017, averaging close to 35 minutes per day.</p>
<p>The HILDA analysis covers all workers aged 15 years and older. This includes those with commuting times of zero (that is, who work from home).</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285781/original/file-20190726-136744-124z3od.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285781/original/file-20190726-136744-124z3od.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285781/original/file-20190726-136744-124z3od.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285781/original/file-20190726-136744-124z3od.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285781/original/file-20190726-136744-124z3od.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285781/original/file-20190726-136744-124z3od.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285781/original/file-20190726-136744-124z3od.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Daily commuting times are calculated by dividing the time spent travelling to and from work in a typical week by the usual number of days worked per week.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Data source: HILDA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The survey, based on interviews with about 17,000 Australians yearly, also reveals that the share of people commuting two or more hours a day is increasing, from 12% in 2002 to 18% in 2017. Men are more likely than women to be long-distance commuters. And middle-aged workers (aged 25-54) are more likely to have long commutes than younger and older workers. </p>
<p>Interestingly, fathers of two children had the highest likelihood (27%) of having long commutes, while mothers with two children were the least likely (less than 13%). On the one hand, households with dependent children are more likely to live in suburban locations for the larger houses, potentially increasing commuting distance for workers in these households. On the other hand, female workers’ relatively lower wage rate and more household responsibilities, such as child rearing, may restrict them to choosing jobs closer to home. </p>
<h2>Impacts on job satisfaction</h2>
<p>According to the HILDA Survey, long-distance commuters (two hours or more a day) are less likely than short-distance commuters (less than one hour) to be satisfied with their working hours, work-life balance and even pay. Therefore, they have lower levels of overall job satisfaction. These long-distance commuters are more likely to quit or lose their jobs within the next year. </p>
<p>These results from the HILDA Survey align well with the findings of <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0966692318307269">our research</a>. Our findings suggest longer commutes not only impose physical and mental strains on workers but may also affect their work participation, engagement and productivity. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/walking-and-cycling-to-work-makes-commuters-happier-and-more-productive-117819">Walking and cycling to work makes commuters happier and more productive</a>
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<h2>Negative impacts go beyond work</h2>
<p>A growing number of studies have found long-duration commuting can <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856410000960">reduce the time a person has for other activities</a>. These other activities, such as physical exercise, time with family, social activities and so on, are important for psychological well-being. </p>
<p>Lengthy commuting also potentially increases <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-9442.2008.00542.x">exposure to nuisances and hazards</a> such as traffic noise, crowds, congestion, pollution and uncomfortably hot or cold conditions. These can cause physical or emotional distress and have a direct influence on people’s physical and mental health. </p>
<h2>What can policymakers do about this?</h2>
<p>A better balance of jobs and housing within a smaller geographic area could help to shorten commuting distances and time. Planning policy such as polycentric cities – with multiple activity centres – have been proposed in Sydney and Melbourne, and could help achieve this.</p>
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<p><em><strong>Read more:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-close-is-sydney-to-the-vision-of-creating-three-30-minute-cities-115847">How close is Sydney to the vision of creating three 30-minutes cities?</a></em></p>
<p><em><strong>Read more:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/our-growing-big-cities-need-new-centres-of-employment-heres-melbournes-chance-93067">Our growing big cities need new centres of employment – here’s Melbourne’s chance</a></em></p>
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<p>Most Australians still rely on their cars for daily commuting. Aside from long travel distance, traffic congestion is another important factor in increasing commuting times. Encouraging alternative travel modes for commuting could potentially relieve congestion. </p>
<p>The HILDA Survey reveals that close to 28% of workers live and work in the same postcode. About 55% of workers live within 10 kilometres of their place of work. This suggests there is huge potential to promote active travel – cycling and walking – for daily commuting trips. Only for a minority (11%) are the postcodes of the home and place of work 30 or more kilometres apart.</p>
<p>High-frequency and reliable rapid public transport networks linking major residential and employment centres could encourage more medium and long-distance commuters to use public transport for daily commuting. </p>
<p>Finally, emerging transport technology, such as autonomous vehicles, is also promising to curb traffic congestion and reduce the “perceived” commuting time, if these vehicles are shared rather than owned by individuals. </p>
<p>Companies also have a role to play in helping to reduce commuting times and their impact on workers’ well-being. Flexible working times, which allow employees to avoid peak-hour travel, and a supportive company culture for working from home can help reduce weekly commuting time. In return, companies potentially benefit from improving employee job satisfaction and retention rates. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/theres-a-reason-youre-feeling-no-better-off-than-10-years-ago-heres-what-hilda-says-about-well-being-121098">There's a reason you're feeling no better off than 10 years ago. Here's what HILDA says about well-being</a>
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<p><em>One of the authors, Runing Ye, is available today for a Q+A on this topic from 3pm-4pm AEST. Please post your questions in the comments below.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/120598/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Average commuting times for Australians have increased by 23% in 15 years. And those with long commutes are less satisfied with their work, working hours, work-life balance and even pay.Runing Ye, Research Fellow, Melbourne School of Design, The University of MelbourneLiang Ma, Vice-Chancellor's Postdoctoral Research Fellow, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1165142019-05-12T20:11:55Z2019-05-12T20:11:55ZCrowded trains? Planning focus on cars misses new apartment impacts<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/273446/original/file-20190509-183109-10rwvn6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">When most inner-city apartment residents don't use cars to get around, you can expect public transport to feel the impacts of new developments.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Crowded_train_(38690236841).jpg">Eric FIscher/Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Wondering why you can’t get a seat on the train? Perhaps it’s because we don’t actually know how many extra people will use public transport when new building developments are planned. As a result, you’re probably in for a bit of a crush.</p>
<p>A traffic impact assessment is usually required when planning a major building development in Australia. This is supposed to assess the impacts of the development on the movement of people and goods. But, in practice, these <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0361198119833967">assessments mainly focus on the movement of cars</a>.</p>
<p>However, car trips are often in the minority when developments have good access to walking, cycling and public transport networks. <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.3141/2537-14">Trip generation surveys</a> at apartment buildings in inner Melbourne show cars account for only 30-40% of all trips.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nightingales-sustainability-song-falls-on-deaf-ears-as-car-centric-planning-rules-hold-sway-50187">Nightingale's sustainability song falls on deaf ears as car-centric planning rules hold sway</a>
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<p>Despite this shift away from cars, <a href="https://www.atrf.info/papers/2016/files/ATRF2016_Full_papers_resubmission_155.pdf">current planning guidelines in Australia fall short</a> when it comes to planning for other modes of transport associated with new development. Little or no quantitative assessment of trips by walking, cycling and public transport is required.</p>
<h2>Planning focus is still on cars</h2>
<p>Planning for new development in Australia does very little to adequately support public transport, walking and cycling. Investment is geared towards roads at the expense of more sustainable forms of transport.</p>
<p>There is a lack of data on walking, cycling and public transport trips generated by land use developments. Unfortunately, greater resources are required to collect this data as we need to ask people about their travel, rather than simply count cars.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0361198119833967">review</a> of more than 150 trip generation studies conducted worldwide since 1982 found nearly all of these counted car trips from land use developments. Much fewer measured public transport, walking or bicycle trips. Fortunately, though, this situation has been changing over the last 10 years.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/272967/original/file-20190507-103085-t7hsck.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/272967/original/file-20190507-103085-t7hsck.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/272967/original/file-20190507-103085-t7hsck.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/272967/original/file-20190507-103085-t7hsck.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/272967/original/file-20190507-103085-t7hsck.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/272967/original/file-20190507-103085-t7hsck.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/272967/original/file-20190507-103085-t7hsck.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/272967/original/file-20190507-103085-t7hsck.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Measurement of travel by transport mode at building developments.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">De Gruyter (2019)</span></span>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cycling-and-walking-are-short-changed-when-it-comes-to-transport-funding-in-australia-92574">Cycling and walking are short-changed when it comes to transport funding in Australia</a>
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<h2>Good practice properly considers all transport</h2>
<p>So why is so much focus on the car in traffic impact assessments for such developments? Good practice has long recognised the importance of considering all forms of transport.</p>
<p>Good practice shifts the emphasis from assessing <em>traffic</em> impacts to assessing <em>transport</em> impacts. It recognises that most land use developments generate demand for <em>all</em> forms of transport.</p>
<p>In the UK, <a href="http://bailey.persona-pi.com/Public-Inquiries/Barking%20Riverside/B-Core%20Documents/Category%20D%20National,%20London%20and%20Local%20Policy%20and%20Guidanc%20Documents/D28%20-Guidance%20on%20Transport%20Assessment%20April%202010.pdf">recommended practice</a> is to quantify the number of trips a proposed development is expected to generate for <em>each</em> transport mode, not just the car. These numbers can then be compared against the actual capacity of public transport, walking, cycling and road networks. A <a href="http://www.trics.org/">comprehensive database</a>, with trip data from more than 2,000 developments, supports this process.</p>
<p>Once we know how many public transport, walking, cycling and vehicle trips a development is likely to generate, we can then actively plan for these modes of travel.</p>
<p>For example, will the public transport network have enough capacity to cope with the extra demand? Will new services be required? Will footpaths need to be upgraded? What infrastructure is available for cycling and is this sufficient? Will the extra demand for car trips need to be managed?</p>
<p>Without quantifying the expected number of trips by each transport mode, it’s not possible to answer such questions. We can’t properly manage what we can’t measure.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/rethinking-traffic-congestion-to-make-our-cities-more-like-the-places-we-want-them-to-be-111614">Rethinking traffic congestion to make our cities more like the places we want them to be</a>
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<h2>So how can we do better?</h2>
<p>Practice in Australian traffic impact assessments needs to shift towards a multimodal transport focus. Being able to quantify the expected number of trips from a development, by <em>each</em> transport mode, will go a long way to giving more sustainable forms of transport the attention they need.</p>
<p>Sure, collecting data on walking, cycling and public transport trips is more resource-intensive and costs more. But without this data the long-term cost to society is greater.</p>
<p>Recent efforts have integrated the <a href="http://www.tdbonline.org/">UK and Australasian trip databases</a>, but this needs more data on non-car modes for Australia.</p>
<p>Australian state and national guidelines on traffic impact assessments also need to change. This will far better support practitioners in assessing the <em>real</em> transport impacts of proposed building developments.</p>
<p>Above all, we need to picture what type of future we want for our cities. Do we want a future dominated by the car? Or do we want to prioritise liveability in cities where walking, cycling and public transport are real options?</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/this-is-what-our-cities-need-to-do-to-be-truly-liveable-for-all-83967">This is what our cities need to do to be truly liveable for all</a>
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<p>Once built, developments typically remain in place for a very long time. It’s therefore important that traffic impact assessments can influence the development of our transport systems in the right manner.</p>
<p>Properly considering all modes of transport will allow us to plan more effectively for walking, cycling and public transport. This will help to reduce our reliance on the car and enhance the liveability of our cities.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/116514/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris De Gruyter works for RMIT University.
He is a member of the Australian Institute of Traffic Planning and Management (AITPM) and the Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE).</span></em></p>Traffic impact assessments required of major building developments mainly focus on the movement of cars, but these account for only 30-40% of trips by inner-city apartment dwellers.Chris De Gruyter, Vice-Chancellor's Research Fellow, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1051192018-11-18T18:55:43Z2018-11-18T18:55:43ZFor Mobility as a Service (MaaS) to solve our transport woes, some things need to change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/244478/original/file-20181108-74772-10f5u14.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Whim app seamlessly connects users to multiple transport modes in Helsinki – public transport, taxis, car rental and car/bicycle sharing.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/helsinki-finland-may-25-2018-interior-1108795604?src=qUBoBHKjQTlZds26fmkKgw-1-73">Aleksandra Suzi/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Mobility as a Service (MaaS) represents a new way of thinking about about transport. It has the potential to be the most significant innovation in transport since the advent of the automobile. </p>
<p>In a move away from dependence on privately owned cars or multiple transport apps, MaaS combines mobility services from public transport, taxis, car rental and car/bicycle sharing under a single platform that’s accessible from a smart phone. Not only will a MaaS platform plan your journey, it will also allow you to buy tickets from a range of service providers.</p>
<p>While autonomous vehicles have garnered much of the recent media attention on transport, MaaS is gaining ground. A Google search now returns more than 400,000 hits on “mobility as a service”. Many private and public transport providers, along with many state governments, are looking at the impacts of MaaS and how they can capitalise on the idea. </p>
<h2>Why the growing interest in MaaS?</h2>
<p>In part, the motivation is due to changing demographics. The world continues to urbanise with <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/en/news/population/2018-revision-of-world-urbanization-prospects.html">55% of the global population</a> living in urban areas today. By 2050, projections suggest that will <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/en/news/population/2018-revision-of-world-urbanization-prospects.html">increase to 68%</a>. This increasing urbanisation will add to existing problems of traffic congestion. </p>
<p>A growing body of evidence suggests that <a href="https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2018/09/citylab-university-induced-demand/569455/">providing more infrastructure won’t solve the problem</a>. It’s too costly and this type of “solution” will provide only temporary relief. MaaS has been promoted as <a href="https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/nl/Documents/consumer-business/deloitte-nl-cb-ths-rise-of-mobility-as-a-service.pdf">a better way to manage traffic congestion</a> by making more efficient use of existing private and public transport infrastructure. </p>
<p>And MaaS has many other appealing aspects. It could shorten commuting times and make travelling more convenient. It could help shift commuter trips from peak times to low demand times (through <a href="https://www.sfmta.com/blog/san-francisco-adopts-demand-responsive-pricing-program-make-parking-easier">demand-responsive pricing</a> of the services). </p>
<p>Finally, MaaS could improve air quality by shifting travellers from cars to more sustainable modes, such as public and active transport, through reward systems. For example, in a <a href="https://research.chalmers.se/publication/204386">trial in Gothenburg</a>, customers were rewarded with points for every ton of CO<sub>2</sub> emissions they avoided by using more sustainable travel modes. The points were redeemable for a range of goods and services.</p>
<p>The other motivating factor is the estimated value of the MaaS market. <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/872599/global-mobility-services-market-regions/">Projections suggest</a> a market worth $US600 billion in the United States, European Union and China by 2025. Others have projected that the global market for MaaS will <a href="https://www.abiresearch.com/press/abi-research-forecasts-global-mobility-service-rev/">exceed $US1 trillion by 2030</a>.</p>
<h2>Lessons from early trials</h2>
<p><a href="http://ubigo.se/">UbiGo first trialled MaaS in Gothenburg</a>, Sweden, for six months between November 2013 and April 2014. This involved 83 subscriptions by 195 people. </p>
<p>Most of the customers (80%) wanted to continue after the trial ended. Based on an <a href="https://research.chalmers.se/publication/204386">evaluation of the Gothenburg trial</a>, the following were important considerations for MaaS:</p>
<ul>
<li>competitive cost relative to owning a car</li>
<li>flexibility and convenience</li>
<li>sufficient mobility infrastructure to reach most potential users</li>
<li>ease of use.</li>
</ul>
<p>The first commercial application of the concept was by <a href="https://maas.global/">MaaS Global</a> in Helsinki, Finland. The <a href="https://whimapp.com/">Whim app</a> was launched in 2016. It covers public transport, taxis, car rentals, car-share and bike-share modes. Customers can use the service on a pay-as-you-go plan or by monthly subscription. </p>
<h2>Governance the key to scaling up MaaS</h2>
<p>MaaS Global is looking to expand elsewhere soon. The key question is whether it can work beyond Helsinki. The challenge is not about the technology — it is about governance. </p>
<p>It’s no coincidence that Whim was born in Finland, a small country with well-functioning institutions and well-designed cities. MaaS will continue to be successful here, in part due to support from the national government. </p>
<p>For example, in 2018 Finland was the <a href="https://www.intelligenttransport.com/transport-articles/65230/improving-mobility-service-maas/">first country in the world to create an open market for mobility services</a>. As of January 2018, all mobility partners must provide open data and associated computer programs (APIs) to third parties.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/244481/original/file-20181108-74751-11apk4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/244481/original/file-20181108-74751-11apk4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/244481/original/file-20181108-74751-11apk4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=644&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244481/original/file-20181108-74751-11apk4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=644&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244481/original/file-20181108-74751-11apk4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=644&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244481/original/file-20181108-74751-11apk4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=810&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244481/original/file-20181108-74751-11apk4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=810&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244481/original/file-20181108-74751-11apk4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=810&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The first trial of MaaS was very popular with users in Gothenburg, Sweden, but a lack of supportive government policies has stalled progress.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/gothenburg-sweden-may-8-2018-people-1087957418?src=7cRQdVp_Bwyduon6XUjWVA-1-11">Michael715/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>By contrast, the Gothenburg trial, while successful, has not yet resulted in regular services. Based on learnings from the trial, UbiGo has refined their business model to better integrate public and commercial transport services and will be relaunching in Stockholm with a trial followed by a full roll-out by the end of 2018. </p>
<p>MaaS requires a willingness by private and public transport providers to work with the creators of MaaS platforms. Transport providers must agree to allow the MaaS operator to sell their services and collect a “reasonable” and “fair” commission for each ticket sold. </p>
<p>Another challenge is getting private operators to participate despite losing customers in the short term. </p>
<p>Advocates suggest that, if the concept is successful, the pool of customers will grow as cars are abandoned in favour of MaaS. Hence most companies will want to participate in one or more MaaS platforms. </p>
<p>However, for its potential to be realised, MaaS needs governments to ensure a playing field that is fair for existing and new mobility service providers, and one that encourages cooperation rather than competition. It may be the case that the most efficient MaaS platforms will take the form of <a href="https://www.fastcompany.com/90261748/why-uber-and-lyft-want-to-create-walled-gardens-and-why-its-bad-for-urban-mobility">regulated monopolies</a>, much like existing utility companies.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/105119/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Neil Sipe receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Myer Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dorina Pojani receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>Apps that seamlessly combine all our travel options could be the most significant transport innovation since the automobile, but early trials show government policy support is vital to make MaaS work.Neil G Sipe, Honorary Professor of Planning, The University of QueenslandDorina Pojani, Senior Lecturer in Urban Planning, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/941662018-05-09T20:18:34Z2018-05-09T20:18:34ZWhy the need for speed? Transport spending priorities leave city residents worse off<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/218014/original/file-20180508-46356-10kaeng.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Have Australian commuters really enjoyed gains in quality of life that would justify all those billions of dollars spent on transport infrastructure?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/angry-man-driving-vehicle-without-seat-148683359?src=JfkNVOBIorckUi02lAU-ZQ-1-57">Hayk Shalunts/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australian governments are set to spend more on transport infrastructure than ever before. Federal and state infrastructure spending, <a href="https://theconversation.com/infographic-budget-2018-at-a-glance-95649">driven largely by transport projects</a>, was expected to total <a href="http://www.afr.com/business/construction/transport-infrastructure-boom-pushing-spend-up-80pc-in-5-years-macromonitor-20180221-h0wfa3">$31.6 billion in 2018, increasing to $38 billion in 2021</a>, even before the latest Commonwealth <a href="https://www.budget.gov.au/2018-19/content/bp2/download/bp2_expense.pdf">spending announcements</a>. Will all this construction make it easier for us to get around, our journeys more enjoyable, or <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-do-we-create-liveable-cities-first-we-must-work-out-the-key-ingredients-50898">our cities more liveable</a> for a growing population?</p>
<p>Since the 1950s, spending on transport infrastructure has largely been justified on the basis of its ability to increase travel speeds or reduce travel times. For example, the New South Wales government <a href="https://www.westconnex.com.au/sites/default/files/WestConnex%20Updated%20Strategic%20Business%20Case%20-%20November%202015.pdf">estimates</a> its $17 billion WestConnex toll road will deliver travel time savings motorists would value at about $13 billion. But new tolls will largely cancel out any benefit. This means <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/feb/27/westconnex-is-a-bad-deal-for-motorists-and-taxpayers-who-is-it-good-for">the ultimate beneficiary will be the toll road corporations</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/stuck-in-traffic-we-need-a-smarter-approach-to-congestion-than-building-more-roads-84774">Stuck in traffic: we need a smarter approach to congestion than building more roads</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><a href="https://trid.trb.org/view.aspx?id=694596">As early as the 1960s</a>, however, it become evident that prioritising speed above all else is counterproductive. It’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/city-by-city-analysis-shows-our-capitals-arent-liveable-for-many-residents-85676">making our cities less efficient and liveable</a>, and consigns many people to <a href="https://theconversation.com/road-rage-why-normal-people-become-harmful-on-the-roads-60845">stressful</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/designing-suburbs-to-cut-car-use-closes-gaps-in-health-and-wealth-83961">unhealthy</a> daily commutes.</p>
<p>Faster travel does allow people to move further from work and other destinations – and not have to spend any more time travelling. It’s also true that many households value the ability to move to outer suburbs, where lower land values mean they can afford a home (or a larger one). </p>
<p>But when thousands of households migrate to low-density suburbs, we end up with urban sprawl. This is bad not only for <a href="http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2015/06/01/urban-sprawl-costs-the-american-economy-more-than-1-trillion-annually-smart-growth-policies-may-be-the-answer/">productivity</a> and <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-07/urban-sprawl-contributing-to-obesity-problem-study-suggests/8331548">public health</a>, but also makes public transport less viable. Sprawl entrenches dependence on cars. This limits access to economic and social opportunities for those unable to drive.</p>
<p>High vehicle speeds and longer driving distances create multiple other problems. These include more traffic noise, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/yes-speed-really-does-kill-says-global-road-safety-review-20180404-p4z7t1.html">more road trauma</a>, higher transport costs and neighbourhoods too dangerous for children to venture outdoors on their own.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/designing-suburbs-to-cut-car-use-closes-gaps-in-health-and-wealth-83961">Designing suburbs to cut car use closes gaps in health and wealth</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Rethinking the need for speed</h2>
<p>The need for speed is being questioned in other aspects of modern life. The <a href="https://www.slowfood.com/about-us/">Slow Food Movement</a> urges us to savour and enjoy our meal times, rather than view eating as an unwelcome interruption to our busy days.</p>
<p>For my <a href="http://hdl.handle.net/2123/17914">PhD research</a>, I asked a similar question of our travel time. What if it’s seen not only as a cost to be minimised, but as <a href="https://theconversation.com/time-scarcity-is-a-slippery-slope-to-inactivity-69294">valuable time</a> that can be used to work, exercise or relax? </p>
<p>It’s important to note that <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/the-one-thing-about-commuting-that-is-strangely-stable-20180406-p4z88d.html">average daily travel times don’t decline</a> no matter how much is spent on transport infrastructure. How then can investment be prioritised to make our travel time more enjoyable and productive, while at the same time improving access to economic and social opportunities?</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/time-scarcity-is-a-slippery-slope-to-inactivity-69294">Time scarcity is a slippery slope to inactivity</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Choosing to take the ‘slow road’</h2>
<p>I had observed that many people willingly choose a slower, more pleasant journey over a faster, less pleasant one. For example, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jth.2016.10.004">research</a> shows that, after a new cycleway opened in Sydney in 2014, some people switched to cycling from driving and public transport, even though this meant their journeys could take longer. Some people who already cycled opted for a longer route via the cycleway. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/people-take-to-their-bikes-when-we-make-it-safer-and-easier-for-them-82251">People take to their bikes when we make it safer and easier for them</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Based on such observations, I developed a <a href="http://decisio.nl/en/research/social-cost-benefit-analysis/">cost-benefit analysis</a> tool that captures the value people place on having the option to cycle to local destinations and transport interchanges in a traffic-free environment – regardless of whether their travel time changes.</p>
<p>Using this tool to assess the City of Sydney’s <a href="http://cdn.sydneycycleways.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/11010602/Cycle-Strategy-and-Action-Plan-2007-2017.pdf">proposed 200-kilometre cycling network</a>, I forecast it would increase the proportion of local residents (aged 18-55) commuting by bicycle from 4.5% to 10.7% – freeing up significant space on roads and public transport. The estimated <a href="http://bca.transportationeconomics.org/types-of-measures/benefit-cost-ratio">benefit-cost ratio</a> was 3.4. That’s better than many of the multibillion-dollar transport projects on the national <a href="http://infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/projects/infrastructure-priority-list.aspx">Infrastructure Priority List</a>.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, it’s not yet possible to validate these forecasts. Since 2013, the NSW government has done little to promote healthy transport. It has allowed the City of Sydney to build only about five kilometres of new cycleway, demolished one of the busiest cycleways in the CBD to create space for more traffic, and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/aug/24/sydney-australia-war-cyclists-fines">increased fines</a> for trivial cycling offences. It’s not surprising the proportion of people cycling has hardly changed.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cycling-and-walking-are-short-changed-when-it-comes-to-transport-funding-in-australia-92574">Cycling and walking are short-changed when it comes to transport funding in Australia</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What do we want of our cities?</h2>
<p>The next step will be to adapt the tool for assessing other transport and land use initiatives that could improve the usefulness and enjoyment of travel time – and access to economic and social opportunities – without necessarily increasing speed. Possible examples include:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://theconversation.com/defying-the-one-hour-rule-for-city-travel-traffic-modelling-drives-policy-madness-53099">extra train services</a> to reduce crowding</li>
<li><a href="https://theconversation.com/autonomous-vehicles-could-help-millions-of-people-catch-up-on-sleep-tv-and-work-89603">automated vehicles</a>, which could allow passengers to work while travelling</li>
<li><a href="https://theconversation.com/if-the-people-cant-get-to-their-jobs-bring-the-jobs-to-the-people-57567">jobs growth</a> <a href="https://theconversation.com/our-growing-big-cities-need-new-centres-of-employment-heres-melbournes-chance-93067">in suburban centres</a>, as in the Greater Sydney Commission’s <a href="https://www.greater.sydney/greater-sydney-region-plan">Metropolis of Three Cities</a> plan</li>
<li><a href="https://theconversation.com/tackling-housing-unaffordability-a-10-point-national-plan-43628">ambitious affordable housing policies</a>, enabling more low-income households to live closer to work.</li>
</ul>
<p>Of course, cost-benefit analysis is just one (far from perfect) tool for informing decisions on transport and land use proposals. Before these proposals are developed, perhaps we need to give more thought to what kind of city <a href="https://theconversation.com/liveable-cities-who-%5Bdecides-what-that-means-and-how-we-achieve-it-48825">we want to live in</a>. </p>
<p>Do we want a city that’s easy and pleasant to get around, with inviting public spaces? Or one where we have to endure stressful and expensive journeys to get anywhere, and the public realm is devoted to traffic, not people?</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/this-is-what-our-cities-need-to-do-to-be-truly-liveable-for-all-83967">This is what our cities need to do to be truly liveable for all</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/94166/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher Standen has received funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>We spend on average about an hour a day travelling. Given this is unlikely to change, how can we make this time more productive and enjoyable?Christopher Standen, Transport Research Analyst, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/949842018-05-01T20:15:54Z2018-05-01T20:15:54ZDon’t forget buses: six rules for improving city bus services<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/215884/original/file-20180423-75093-1o7u3jk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Smart bus use can transform public transport in cities, as EMBARQ is doing in Brazil.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/embarqbrasil/14325475028">EMBARQ Brasil/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Public transport that is <a href="http://www.ppt.asn.au/pubdocs/ip15-dodson-et-al-2011.pdf">safe, efficient and effective</a> is a core priority when it comes to city-building. While <a href="https://theconversation.com/getting-public-transport-right-means-less-emphasis-on-rail-45">trains get a lot of attention</a>, buses can also deliver successful public transport services – if we can overcome some common problems.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/which-transport-is-the-fairest-of-them-all-24806">Which transport is the fairest of them all?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Problems with bus services</h2>
<p>The main issues arise because buses share roads with cars. This tends to reduce the efficiency of bus travel, unless given a dedicated corridor like trains. Road congestion leads to frequent stopping, long journey times and delays in passenger pick-up and drop-off. Other issues include limited off-peak service, poor-quality shelters and unreliable timetables. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0739885915300500">None of these problems is insurmountable</a>. With some clever planning and targeted investment, buses can play a key role in public transport. Planners call this “<a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/07293682.2010.526550">service-based network planning</a>”.</p>
<h2>Six principles for better service</h2>
<p>Here we offer six <a href="https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2014/05/5-crucial-principles-for-21st-century-transportation-systems/371782/">principles for making buses better</a>. <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0966692308000306">Research shows</a> that to meet people’s everyday mobility needs, such as dropping children at school, doing shopping, running errands and so on, bus services must be flexible, convenient, safe, reliable, efficient and integrated.</p>
<p><strong>1.</strong> <strong>Flexibility</strong> is a key requirement. People need to be able to use buses for multiple trips – in succession. Rigid timetables and set routes can make buses less appealing and less effective. </p>
<p>New developments such as “<a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/sydney-commuters-get-chance-to-trial-ondemand-buses-20170816-gxx4w5.html">on-demand</a>” services and <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/heatherfarmbrough/2018/01/31/ugly-but-useful-stockholm-introduces-driverless-busses/#dd21ff160f44">driverless buses</a> offer the potential for better service delivery. For instance, Singapore intends that <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/business-42090987">driverless buses will act as shuttles</a>, funnelling people from neighbourhoods to rapid transit services.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/215842/original/file-20180423-75107-5xcr7v.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/215842/original/file-20180423-75107-5xcr7v.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/215842/original/file-20180423-75107-5xcr7v.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/215842/original/file-20180423-75107-5xcr7v.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/215842/original/file-20180423-75107-5xcr7v.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/215842/original/file-20180423-75107-5xcr7v.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/215842/original/file-20180423-75107-5xcr7v.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/215842/original/file-20180423-75107-5xcr7v.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A rapid transit bus station in Curitiba, Brazil.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Linha_Verde_Curitiba_BRT_02_2013_Est_Marechal_Floriano_5978.JPG">Mariordo/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>2.</strong> <strong>Convenience</strong> is also vitally important. Having to wait a long time, especially if it’s in scorching sun, drenching rain, chilly wind or alone in the dark, deters people from using buses. </p>
<p>Services must enable easy access and use, and must be <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0966692311000202">priced fairly</a>. Shelters should be comfortable, attractive and visible (not just <a href="http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/canberrans-rail-against-encroachment-of-ads-with-billboard-ban-changes-20170707-gx6iad.html">glorified billboards</a>).</p>
<p>The use of <a href="https://www.wired.com/2011/04/how-smartphones-can-improve-public-transit/">smart phone apps</a> to request schedules, locate services, plan journeys, navigate the transport network – using real-time journey maps and multi-language platforms, for example – and pay for trips can improve convenience. When combined with <a href="https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2011/11/flexible-route-bus-work-better/523/">flexible pick-up and drop-off</a> locations (off-peak or at night), this can better integrate buses into our busy lives. </p>
<p><a href="https://eprints.qut.edu.au/65216/1/2013_liu_charles.pdf">Flexi-fares</a> (for demand management), “tap and go” payment systems, shopper or family passes, <a href="https://www.wired.com/2016/07/public-transit-riders-want-better-service-not-free-wifi/">free on-board wifi</a> and USB recharging ports can also improve convenience.</p>
<p><strong>3.</strong> <strong>Passenger safety</strong> is related to the above point. Buses should be accessible to a wide variety of people, such as vision-impaired and mobility-challenged, and everyone should feel safe. Safety can be improved in many ways. These include co-locating <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Park_and_ride">park-and-ride</a> facilities with neighbourhood shopping centres, schools, higher-density housing, recreation areas and other centres of activity, which maximises “passive surveillance”.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/215857/original/file-20180423-75114-1dmf44t.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/215857/original/file-20180423-75114-1dmf44t.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/215857/original/file-20180423-75114-1dmf44t.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/215857/original/file-20180423-75114-1dmf44t.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/215857/original/file-20180423-75114-1dmf44t.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/215857/original/file-20180423-75114-1dmf44t.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/215857/original/file-20180423-75114-1dmf44t.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/215857/original/file-20180423-75114-1dmf44t.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Purewell bus stop displays real-time information about services in Dorset, UK.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Purewell_Stony_Lane_bus_stop_Real_Time_information_display.JPG">Arriva436/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>4.</strong> <strong>Reliability</strong> is an important requirement for people to use buses. Transit systems must be designed so the buses run on time. And many bus rapid transit systems around the world deliver fast and reliable services.</p>
<p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_bus_rapid_transit_systems">More than 40</a> cities now have rapid transit bus systems. These include Adelaide in Australia, Curitiba in Brazil, Seoul in Korea, Cape Town in South Africa, Ottawa in Canada, Los Angeles in USA, and <a href="https://www.pri.org/stories/2015-10-21/can-modern-megacity-bogot-get-without-subway">Bogota in Colombia</a>, which is among the largest by passenger volume. </p>
<p>Key here are measures such as dedicated bus lanes (e.g. the <a href="https://www.tmr.qld.gov.au/busways.aspx">Brisbane Busway</a>), peak-hour clearways, city clipper services (e.g. crosstown with limited stops), <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S187704281101024X">traffic signals</a> that give priority to buses, and flexi lanes for peak demand. These can be paired with “real-time service” displays indicating the next available bus, and even <a href="https://theconversation.com/london-congestion-charge-why-its-time-to-reconsider-one-of-the-citys-great-successes-92478">congestion charging</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/delay-in-changing-direction-on-how-we-tax-drivers-will-cost-us-all-87931">Delay in changing direction on how we tax drivers will cost us all</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>5.</strong> <strong>Efficiency</strong> is a key driver of public transport use and delivery. Many bus services are contracted (albeit with subsidies) so need to “pay their way”. Savings can be achieved by switching fuel (to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/mar/15/uk-first-poo-bio-bus-bristol-regular-service">biofuel</a> or <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/20/europes-oil-capital-turns-to-clean-green-hydrogen-buses.html">hydrogen</a>, for example). Hybrid and <a href="https://cleantechnica.com/2018/01/06/not-just-shenzhen-jaw-dropping-china-electric-bus-roundup/">electric bus</a> fleets use less or no fuel.</p>
<p>Using all doors for boarding can reduce trip times, as can new <a href="https://www.wired.com/2013/04/rethinking-subway-seating/">seating configurations</a>. Flexible payment options, using systems such as “tap and go”, can eliminate “fare fumbling”. </p>
<p>A simple measure to handle variable demand is versatile vehicle fleets. Examples such as Hong Kong’s <a href="http://www.bbc.com/autos/story/20160713-the-scary-fast-buses-of-hong-kong">light buses</a> and the Swiss town of St Gallen’s high-capacity, bi-articulated trolleybus vehicles show this improved efficiency.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/215869/original/file-20180423-75123-12z0gmc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/215869/original/file-20180423-75123-12z0gmc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/215869/original/file-20180423-75123-12z0gmc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/215869/original/file-20180423-75123-12z0gmc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/215869/original/file-20180423-75123-12z0gmc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/215869/original/file-20180423-75123-12z0gmc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/215869/original/file-20180423-75123-12z0gmc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/215869/original/file-20180423-75123-12z0gmc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Jumbo double-articulated trolley buses operate in St Gallen, Switzerland.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/70981241@N00/6813792712">Kecko/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>6.</strong> <strong>Network integration</strong> is crucial if buses are to work. This means passengers should be able to transfer easily between walking, cycling, private vehicles, car sharing (e.g. Uber), ferries, trains and other buses. </p>
<p>Fare systems should be designed for easy transfer. Transfers should be free or low-cost within set time periods. </p>
<p>And bus transit should be better integrated into cities. Initiatives such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-30-minute-city-how-do-we-put-the-political-rhetoric-into-practice-56136">transit-oriented development</a> combine transport with housing, recreation, education, commercial activities and other land uses.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-30-minute-city-how-do-we-put-the-political-rhetoric-into-practice-56136">'The 30-minute city': how do we put the political rhetoric into practice?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>The future of bus transit</h2>
<p>Of course, not all these solutions will work for every city. Smaller and midsize cities are arguably better positioned to take advantage of bus transit, though it works in larger metro areas too. For example, <a href="https://unfccc.int/climate-action/momentum-for-change/lighthouse-activities/guangzhou-bus-rapid-transit-system-china">Guangzhou in China has bus rapid transit</a>.</p>
<p>Not many cities can afford to implement these solutions all at once. While some commentators have suggested <a href="https://theconversation.com/buses-could-be-history-sooner-than-you-think-heres-why-90126">buses could soon be history</a>, cities like Brisbane, Australia, are experimenting with <a href="https://www.brisbane.qld.gov.au/traffic-transport/public-transport/brisbane-metro">hybrid bus transit systems</a>. The vehicles and stations have the look and feel of light rail, but retain the flexibility of buses. </p>
<p>With careful planning and phased implementation, bus transit can help make cities healthier, more efficient and more sustainable.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/94984/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jason Byrne receives funding from the Australian Research Council for research on (i) climate change and social innovation and (ii) green space and health. He is a member of the Planning Institute Australia, Institute of Australian Geographers and Association of American Geographers. Jason donates to environmental groups (e.g. Australian Conservation Foundation) and has presented at the Green Institute conference. He provides research consultancy services to local government (e.g. City of Gold Coast).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emma Pharo is a member of Tasmania's Road Safety Advisory Council and has consulted for the Department of State Growth on pedestrian safety and amenity. She was a public relations advisor for Bicycle Network between 2011 and 2016 and is a current member of the Hobart Bike Advisory Committee. Emma is a member of the Planning Institute of Australia and sits on the policy sub-committee in Tasmania.
</span></em></p>Trains and trams get most attention, but ‘tweaking’ bus transit can transform cities. Buses can be more cost-effective and deliver better service, especially for small to mid-sized cities.Jason Byrne, Professor of Human Geography and Planning, University of TasmaniaEmma Pharo, Senior Lecturer, Geography and Environmental Studies, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/937242018-04-08T19:49:49Z2018-04-08T19:49:49ZToo wet? Too cold? Too hot? This is how weather affects the trips we make<p>What sorts of weather lead us to change our daily travel behaviour? How do we respond to scorching heatwaves, sapping humidity, snow and frost, strong winds, or torrential rain? International research shows weather is important in shaping our everyday movements. </p>
<p>The research evidence suggests that bad weather can lead to planned journeys being rescheduled, rerouted or cancelled. The consequences of these shifts in daily travel choices can include increases in <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S136192090800165X">traffic congestion and accidents</a>, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S136192090800165X">travel delays</a>, mental stress, environmental pollution and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856416306206">general travel dissatisfaction</a>. </p>
<p>Because people who travel by bike or walking are most likely to change travel plans in bad weather, some cities are responding with innovations such as <a href="http://www.dw.com/en/the-netherlands-tests-heated-cycle-lanes/a-18971259">heated bicycle lanes</a> and <a href="https://blogs.ethz.ch/engagingmobility/2016/05/03/bicycle-infrastructure-in-singapore-an-overview/">sheltered walkways</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/this-is-how-sydneys-transport-system-has-gone-off-the-rails-90301">This is how Sydney's transport system has gone off the rails</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Why do we care about the weather?</h2>
<p>Firstly, how do we explain people’s common obsession with the weather? As <a href="http://www.samueljohnson.com/england.html">Samuel Johnson</a> put it: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>It is commonly observed, that when two Englishmen meet, their first talk is of the weather; they are in haste to tell each other, what each must already know, that it is hot or cold, bright or cloudy, windy or calm.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Is this merely a keen (or indeed pathological) interest in the subject? </p>
<p><a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/Watching-English-Hidden-Rules-Behaviour/dp/0340818867">According to Kate Fox</a>, these conversations are not really about the weather at all: weather-speak is a form of code, evolved to help Anglo-Australian people overcome their natural reserve and actually talk to one another. Weather-speak can be used as a greeting, as an ice-breaker, and/or as a “filler” subject.</p>
<p>But, beyond its use as a conversation prop and social bonding device, weather does play a major role in travel behaviour. And as the impacts of climate change unfold, the severity and frequency of extreme weather conditions are predicted to increase. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213335/original/file-20180405-189824-1h5ux1l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213335/original/file-20180405-189824-1h5ux1l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213335/original/file-20180405-189824-1h5ux1l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213335/original/file-20180405-189824-1h5ux1l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213335/original/file-20180405-189824-1h5ux1l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213335/original/file-20180405-189824-1h5ux1l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213335/original/file-20180405-189824-1h5ux1l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213335/original/file-20180405-189824-1h5ux1l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Walking across the street calls for caution during an icy winter storm in Chicago.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/vonderauvisuals/8455067686/">vonderauvisuals/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A better understanding of the dynamics of the relationship between weather and travel behaviour is thus essential in helping cities develop transport and planning responses appropriate to their conditions.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/heres-what-bike-sharing-programs-need-to-succeed-85969">Here's what bike-sharing programs need to succeed</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What do we know about the weather-travel relationship?</h2>
<p>It’s complicated. Research on the weather-travel relationship has revealed that effects vary by mode of travel. </p>
<p>Active transport, such as walking and cycling, is the most vulnerable to variations in the weather. Arriving drenched is both uncomfortable and impractical, so we might drive rather than face this prospect. Wet weather forecasts are likely to <a href="http://www.fietsberaad.nl/library/repository/bestanden/Sabir%20et%20al%20(2010a).Pdf">trigger a travel mode shift</a> as travellers opt for greater comfort and safety.</p>
<p>But the day of the week also affects these decisions. Inclement weather is <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0968090X1730311X">more likely to reduce</a> weekend and off-peak travel – the so-called <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856414002195">discretionary trips</a> – than standard weekday commute trips. Clearly, travel purpose plays a stronger role than weather. </p>
<p>Significant variation exists in the effects of weather on trip-makers with <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11116-015-9623-0">different individual characteristics and household composition</a>. For example, <a href="https://trid.trb.org/view/482123">commuters with children</a> are less likely to alter their travel because of the weather. This is possibly due to their household responsibilities. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0966692314000957">Geographic variations</a> across the transit network have been observed too. Bad weather has more serious effects in areas with less frequent services and without protected bus and rail stops. Travellers in areas with more frequent services and well-designed shelters appear to be <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0968090X1730311X">less sensitive to bad weather</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213071/original/file-20180404-189807-1if6ch4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213071/original/file-20180404-189807-1if6ch4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213071/original/file-20180404-189807-1if6ch4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=662&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213071/original/file-20180404-189807-1if6ch4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=662&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213071/original/file-20180404-189807-1if6ch4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=662&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213071/original/file-20180404-189807-1if6ch4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=832&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213071/original/file-20180404-189807-1if6ch4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=832&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213071/original/file-20180404-189807-1if6ch4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=832&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">High-density cities appear to reduce the impacts of weather on active transport, with this cyclist braving the rain in Osaka.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/90664717@N00/11106854903">Akuppa John Wigham/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In areas with high population densities, the effect of weather also appears to weaken. This is particularly the case for active transportation such as <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0966692314001951">cycling</a>.</p>
<p>How we travel during inclement weather also involves more subtle changes. Trip chaining, or the process of stringing together multiple smaller journeys into a larger one, is reduced in complexity, particularly <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11116-015-9623-0">on rainy days</a>. </p>
<p>In terms of “extreme” weather, not all types have the same effect. Heavy precipitation (snow or rain) and, to a lesser extent, extremely high or low temperatures <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/262900761_Impact_of_Everyday_Weather_on_Individual_Daily_Travel_Behaviours_in_Perspective_A_Literature_Review">appear to have</a> a <a href="https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/The-Impact-of-Climate-Change-and-Weather-on-An-of-Koetse-Rietveld/93b6e6516ad21a549096a97348fc8f56774396d3">greater effect</a> on travel behaviour than strong winds or high humidity. </p>
<h2>Adapting to weather conditions</h2>
<p>We cannot change the weather. But we can plan our transport systems to be more resilient and better shield us from the weather when we travel. </p>
<p>If we don’t do this, we will face the same crisis as Transport for London. Since its privatisation, its train services experience delays every autumn and winter due to “<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slippery_rail">leaves on the line</a>” and “<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_wrong_type_of_snow">the wrong type of snow</a>”. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-does-a-bit-of-snow-plunge-britain-into-transport-chaos-71298">Why does a bit of snow plunge Britain into transport chaos?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213072/original/file-20180404-189795-gpdadh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213072/original/file-20180404-189795-gpdadh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213072/original/file-20180404-189795-gpdadh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213072/original/file-20180404-189795-gpdadh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213072/original/file-20180404-189795-gpdadh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213072/original/file-20180404-189795-gpdadh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213072/original/file-20180404-189795-gpdadh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213072/original/file-20180404-189795-gpdadh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Heavy snow can stop traffic altogether, as in New York in winter 2010.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/chrisschoenbohm/5299682895/in/pool-35034350743@N01">Chris Ford/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>What kind of transport adaptations are available and work? The options range from offering passengers a more diverse choice of modes, to improving existing infrastructure. For example, making public transport stations more user-friendly could soften the impact of bad weather. </p>
<p>More seamless interchanges may have a strong effect, as commuters generally find modal transfers stressful. Temperature-controlled, covered or underground transfer stations would protect passengers while between modes of transport. </p>
<p>Active travel infrastructure is particularly important. Cities that are committed to supporting non-motorised transport have implemented or proposed bold policies. </p>
<p>We see examples of this around the world. Increasingly hot Madrid is <a href="https://www.fastcompany.com/3056166/madrid-is-covering-itself-in-plants-to-help-fight-rising-temperatures">covering itself in trees</a> to assist pedestrians. Frosty Dutch cities are testing <a href="http://www.dw.com/en/the-netherlands-tests-heated-cycle-lanes/a-18971259">heated bicycle lanes</a>. Arid Doha has floated the idea of <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nmmdjquL9Tc">cooled bicycle paths</a>. And Singapore plans to expand the city’s network of <a href="https://blogs.ethz.ch/engagingmobility/2016/05/03/bicycle-infrastructure-in-singapore-an-overview/">sheltered walkways</a>. </p>
<p>Projecting roofs and porticoes shield us from the hot sun or precipitation. Vegetation lessens the impacts of both cold wind in temperate and subpolar latitudes and hot sunshine elsewhere.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213073/original/file-20180404-189821-1gkb0ar.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213073/original/file-20180404-189821-1gkb0ar.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213073/original/file-20180404-189821-1gkb0ar.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213073/original/file-20180404-189821-1gkb0ar.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213073/original/file-20180404-189821-1gkb0ar.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213073/original/file-20180404-189821-1gkb0ar.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213073/original/file-20180404-189821-1gkb0ar.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People out and about in the hot weather of Perth welcome shade and cooling fountains.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/traveller_40/8440111359/">Traveller_40/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Beyond these incremental interventions, a fundamental rethink of our urban design approach is necessary. The key to limiting and adapting to the effects of weather on travel may well be the “<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-30-minute-city-how-do-we-put-the-political-rhetoric-into-practice-56136">30-minute city</a>”. But this can only be achieved through high densities and mixed land use – concepts that have so far generated <a href="https://theconversation.com/30-minute-city-not-in-my-backyard-smart-cities-plan-must-let-people-have-their-say-59161">fierce resistance and NIMBYism</a> in Australia. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/30-minute-city-not-in-my-backyard-smart-cities-plan-must-let-people-have-their-say-59161">'30-minute city'? Not in my backyard! Smart Cities Plan must let people have their say</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Another word of caution. What works in one climate zone might not work in another. This is because human bodies and minds adjust and develop different expectations and tolerance to weather and temperature patterns. For example, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/heres-what-bike-sharing-programs-need-to-succeed-85969">optimal temperature range for cycling</a> is as broad as 4-40°C in continental climates, but as narrow as 15-32°C in subtropical climates.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/93724/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan Corcoran receives funding from the Australian Research Council</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dorina Pojani receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas Sigler receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Yan Liu receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Francisco Rowe, Jiangping Zhou, Jiwon Kim, Ming Wei, and Sui Tao do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The relationship between weather and our travel choices is complicated. We can’t change the weather, but, with many other factors in play, good policy and design can reduce its impacts.Jonathan Corcoran, Professor, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of QueenslandDorina Pojani, Senior Lecturer in Urban Planning, The University of QueenslandFrancisco Rowe, Lecturer in Quantitative Human Geography, University of LiverpoolJiangping Zhou, Associate Professor, Department of Urban Planning and Design, University of Hong KongJiwon Kim, Lecturer in Transport Engineering, The University of QueenslandMing Wei, PhD Candidate, The University of QueenslandSui Tao, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Institute of Future Cities, Chinese University of Hong KongThomas Sigler, Lecturer in Human Geography, The University of QueenslandYan Liu, Associate Professor, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/839612017-10-18T19:19:24Z2017-10-18T19:19:24ZDesigning suburbs to cut car use closes gaps in health and wealth<p><em>This article is one in a series, <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/healthy-liveable-cities-44685">Healthy Liveable Cities</a>, in the lead-up to the <a href="http://liveable-cities.aomevents.com.au/">Designing Healthy Liveable Cities Conference</a> in Melbourne on October 19 and 20.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>Large health inequalities <a href="https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjv3O3vo-rWAhXHsJQKHXi1BNUQFggmMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.adelaidenow.com.au%2Flifestyle%2Fhealth%2Faustralias-frightening-healthwealth-gap%2Fnews-story%2F7f30190e661c978537720a1db3b49188&usg=AOvVaw0Qf8w9seRsCEc9KfPJlSUc">exist</a> in Australia. Car ownership and its costs add to the health inequalities between low-income and high-income households. The physical characteristics of neighbourhoods influence our transport use and, in turn, make health inequalities better or worse.</p>
<p>Rising housing prices have forced many low-income families <a href="https://theconversation.com/density-sprawl-growth-how-australian-cities-have-changed-in-the-last-30-years-65870">to live on the fringes</a> of Australian capital cities. Residents of these sprawling outer suburbs often have <a href="http://theconversation.com/some-suburbs-are-being-short-changed-on-services-and-liveability-which-ones-and-whats-the-solution-83966">worse access</a> to public transport, employment, shops and services. They need one or more motor vehicles simply to get to work and take children to school. </p>
<p>Buying and maintaining vehicles in Australia is expensive. These costs have a large impact on household budgets. Household finances then affect health in two main ways:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>through the ability to access health-related resources, such as healthy foods, health care and high-quality living conditions (like heating and cooling)</p></li>
<li><p>through stress caused by financial difficulties, insecure incomes and exposure to poorer environments such as crowding, crime and noise pollution. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>Living in the car-dependent urban fringes also often dooms residents to <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0091743515003655">long sedentary</a> commutes.</p>
<h2>Four scenarios of transport costs</h2>
<p>The following four hypothetical households demonstrate the costs of varying levels of car ownership and transport behaviours. </p>
<p><strong>Scenario 1:</strong> A household with two cars that are 15,000km and 10,000km, respectively, per year. The car that is driven 15,000km is assumed to be less than three years old, bought new and financed with a loan. The other car is assumed to be 10 years old and owned outright. This household aligns with estimates by the <a href="http://www.aaa.asn.au/storage/aaa-transport-affordability-index-june-2017.pdf">Australian Automobile Association</a>. </p>
<p><strong>Scenario 2:</strong> Scenario one, minus the used car and substituting five return public transport trips a week to the Melbourne central business district from the outer suburbs.</p>
<p><strong>Scenario 3:</strong> No cars, substituting 10 return trips to the CBD from the outer suburbs.</p>
<p><strong>Scenario 4:</strong> No cars, substituting three return trips to the CBD (i.e. occasional public transport use), with walking and cycling as the main forms of transport.</p>
<p>Table 1 shows how reducing household car ownership, even after adding the cost of public transport, can improve household finances. </p>
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/7y0Zn/2/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" webkitallowfullscreen="webkitallowfullscreen" mozallowfullscreen="mozallowfullscreen" oallowfullscreen="oallowfullscreen" msallowfullscreen="msallowfullscreen" width="100%" height="600"></iframe>
<p>Moving from a two-car household to a one-car household cuts weekly costs by as much as A$41, even after increased public transport use adds a A$41-a-week cost. </p>
<p>Moving from a two-car household to having no cars can improve weekly finances by as much as A$237, after adding 10 return trips to the CBD.</p>
<p>The fourth scenario, emphasising walking and cycling, shows the greatest improvement in household finances. These families are $294 per week better off.</p>
<p>The impacts on households of each of these car ownership and transport scenarios differ depending on their incomes. To illustrate this, we’ve taken the median disposable household income from the lowest, middle and highest quintiles from the <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/6523.0Main+Features12015-16?OpenDocument">ABS in 2015-16</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190506/original/file-20171016-22304-10xttga.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190506/original/file-20171016-22304-10xttga.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190506/original/file-20171016-22304-10xttga.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190506/original/file-20171016-22304-10xttga.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190506/original/file-20171016-22304-10xttga.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190506/original/file-20171016-22304-10xttga.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190506/original/file-20171016-22304-10xttga.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Figure 1. Proportion of disposable household income remaining after transport costs for four scenarios of car ownership.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Although becoming car-free will increase disposable household income after paying for transport, the largest proportional differences are for the lowest-income households. This means these households will benefit most from reducing car ownership and switching to more active and affordable forms of transport.</p>
<h2>Urban design can boost household health and wealth</h2>
<p>So how do we help households make the transition from private car ownership? The answer lies in the environments we live in.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(16)30066-6/abstract">evidence from research</a> suggests several strategies to improve uptake of active and affordable transport, while reducing car dependence and related health inequities. These include local urban design features such as:</p>
<ul>
<li>connected and safe street networks (including pedestrian and bicycle infrastructure) that reduce exposure to traffic</li>
</ul>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"920012275511185408"}"></div></p>
<ul>
<li><p>residential areas mixed with commercial, public service and recreational opportunities</p></li>
<li><p>public transport that is convenient, affordable, frequent, safe and comfortable</p></li>
<li><p>higher residential density with different types of housing (including affordable housing) to support the viability of local businesses and high-frequency public transport services</p></li>
<li><p>cycling education and promotion</p></li>
<li><p>car-free pedestrian zones, traffic calming measures, signage and accessibility for all (including wheelchair and pram access).</p></li>
</ul>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"750069569302265856"}"></div></p>
<p>Australia has yet to fully realise the potential of promoting active transport and reducing car dependency as a way to reduce health inequities. </p>
<p>For example, the Victorian government <a href="http://www.premier.vic.gov.au/unlocking-new-communities-and-affordable-housing/">recently announced</a> 17 new low-density suburbs for Melbourne’s outer fringes (up to 50 kilometres from the CBD). It did so with a goal of creating more affordable housing. But urban planning experts have <a href="http://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/buying/victorian-government-to-unlock-17-new-suburbs-in-melbourne-to-tackle-housing-affordability/news-story/1fdfbcc12261365d7c4c910d39268a60">criticised</a> these plans for increasing car dependence and commute times – due to the lack of nearby destinations and amenities – <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214140517300154">which have been shown</a> to be bad for health. </p>
<p>In another case, the Planning Institute of Australia <a href="https://architectureau.com/articles/retrograde-solution-west-gate-tunnel-project-a-permanent-blight-says-pia/">described</a> the proposed A$5.5 billion West Gate Tunnel as a “retrograde solution”. The institute expressed concern about “entrenched inequality for those in the outer suburbs”.</p>
<p>Changes to city transport environments can take <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01441647.2016.1177799">years or even decades</a>, and funding is often limited. Phased interventions that target lower-income neighbourhoods should be considered first as these are likely to produce the greatest gains in health equity. </p>
<p>This approach does have some caveats. Urban renewal projects carry a risk of gentrification, whereby higher and middle-income households displace those on lower incomes. Place-based government investment, such as improvements to public transport, <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1540-6229.2012.00339.x/full">has been shown</a> to increase local housing prices. That could force lower-income households to relocate, often to car-dependent neighbourhoods on the urban fringes. </p>
<p>In these scenarios, a lack of government policies that safeguard against displacement of low-income residents can make health inequities worse.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>You can read other articles in the series <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/healthy-liveable-cities-44685">here</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>The <a href="http://liveable-cities.aomevents.com.au/">Designing Healthy Liveable Cities Conference</a> is being hosted by the NHMRC Centre of Research Excellence in Healthy Liveable Communities in Melbourne on October 19-20. You can register <a href="https://aomevents.eventsair.com/nhmrc-cre-2017/wrp/Site/Register">here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/83961/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jerome N Rachele receives funding from National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Centre of Excellence in Healthy Liveable Communities (#1061404)</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Aislinn Healy is affiliated with The Public Health Association of Australia and The Australian Greens.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jim Sallis receives funding from National Institutes of Health, Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, The California Endowment, and Nike Inc.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Takemi Sugiyama does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>One of the most effective ways to reduce health inequalities across Australia is to design neighbourhoods that free residents from having to rely on cars for transport.Jerome N Rachele, Research Fellow in Social Epidemiology, Institute for Health and Ageing, Australian Catholic UniversityAislinn Healy, PhD Candidate, Institute for Health and Ageing, Australian Catholic UniversityJames F Sallis, Professorial Fellow, Institute for Health and Ageing, Australian Catholic University, and Emeritus Professor, Department of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of California, San DiegoTakemi Sugiyama, Professor of Built Environment, Institute for Health & Ageing, Australian Catholic UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/793432017-07-02T20:08:57Z2017-07-02T20:08:57ZStuck in traffic: busting Melbourne versus Sydney myths and identifying the worst commutes<p>Crawling along in low gear, Melbourne drivers often comfort themselves with the thought that at least they’re not in Sydney, where “everyone knows” traffic delays are longer and even more frustrating. Sorry, Melburnians, but you’re kidding yourselves.</p>
<p>New analysis for a forthcoming report by the Grattan Institute debunks several myths about traffic congestion in Australia’s biggest cities – including the conventional wisdom that Sydney-siders are doing it tougher. </p>
<p>Sydney may have <a>340,000 more people</a> and an enormous harbour constricting movements from one part of the city to another, but Melbourne is pretty much on a par when it comes to congestion. </p>
<h2>Twin pictures of congestion</h2>
<p>Chart 1 shows the delay that an average CBD commuter endures in Sydney and Melbourne, compared to how long it would take to do the trip in the early hours of the morning when the only constraints are traffic lights and speed limits. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175777/original/file-20170627-21898-1mga1nj.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175777/original/file-20170627-21898-1mga1nj.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175777/original/file-20170627-21898-1mga1nj.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175777/original/file-20170627-21898-1mga1nj.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175777/original/file-20170627-21898-1mga1nj.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175777/original/file-20170627-21898-1mga1nj.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175777/original/file-20170627-21898-1mga1nj.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175777/original/file-20170627-21898-1mga1nj.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Data for more than 300 routes travelling to and from the CBD were collected 25 times each day over about 12 weeks between March and June 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Grattan analysis of Google Maps data</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the morning peak, an average Melbourne CBD commuting trip takes close to 70% longer than it would in the middle of the night. The 11-kilometre trip from Brighton takes an extra 13 minutes, and the 30km trip from Caroline Springs an extra 20 minutes. The 9km from Coburg take an extra 14 minutes, while the 17km from Doncaster take an extra 20 minutes.</p>
<p>It’s similar in Sydney. The average morning commute to the CBD takes 50-60% longer than it would in the middle of the night. The 40km trip from Liverpool takes an extra 32 minutes, while a trip of similar length from Blacktown typically takes an extra 20. Driving the 17km from Manly takes an extra 21 minutes, while the 7km trip from the airport takes an extra 12.</p>
<p>It doesn’t take quite as long to get home from the city. In the afternoon peak, an average trip takes up to 60% longer than it would in the middle of the night. But it’s harder to avoid the delay: peak “hour” is much longer in the evening than in the morning. Any time from 3.30pm to 6pm you can expect your trip to take at least 40% longer.</p>
<p>We found these patterns by analysing Google Maps estimates of travel times for more than 300 routes across Sydney and Melbourne. The data include 25 travel-time estimates every day for several months. This includes commutes to the CBD and other employment centres, important freight routes, shorter trips within the inner, middle and outer rings, and cross-city trips. </p>
<h2>So which drivers have the worst run?</h2>
<p>Here’s a finding that might surprise drivers who have to crawl over the West Gate Bridge to get to and from work: the worst place to commute to Melbourne’s CBD is not from the rapidly growing western suburbs, but from the northeastern suburbs. That probably won’t surprise you if your commute includes the Eastern Freeway. </p>
<p>Chart 2 shows the typical delay for commuters coming to Melbourne’s CBD from the southeast, northeast, north, south and west. The northeast is the stand-out worst performer, as those who live in Doncaster, Heidelberg and beyond know all too well.
Interestingly, people commuting from the west face much more modest delays.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175779/original/file-20170627-29117-4py4yq.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175779/original/file-20170627-29117-4py4yq.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175779/original/file-20170627-29117-4py4yq.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175779/original/file-20170627-29117-4py4yq.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175779/original/file-20170627-29117-4py4yq.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175779/original/file-20170627-29117-4py4yq.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175779/original/file-20170627-29117-4py4yq.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175779/original/file-20170627-29117-4py4yq.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Grattan analysis of Google Maps data</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Sydney does not have a single region where residents can so clearly expect bad city commutes. That doesn’t mean there’s no congestion. And neither does it mean that it’s just people going to the CBD who are caught up in the commuting tangle. It’s also all the freight vehicles, tradespeople, students going to school or uni, people going to appointments in business hours, and others going elsewhere but still caught up in the snarl of traffic.</p>
<p>Chart 3 shows a selection of trips that don’t include the Sydney CBD but do have delays, with the size of delay depending on the direction of the trip. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/176325/original/file-20170630-26970-1r9bzya.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/176325/original/file-20170630-26970-1r9bzya.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/176325/original/file-20170630-26970-1r9bzya.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176325/original/file-20170630-26970-1r9bzya.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176325/original/file-20170630-26970-1r9bzya.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176325/original/file-20170630-26970-1r9bzya.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176325/original/file-20170630-26970-1r9bzya.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176325/original/file-20170630-26970-1r9bzya.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In Sydney, the delay depends more on the direction of the trip, than what side of the city commuters are driving from.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Grattan analysis of Google Maps data</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The how-long-does-it-take-you-to-get-to-work story involves more than roads. One-quarter of Sydney commuters and 18% of Melbourne commuters <a href="https://bitre.gov.au/publications/2014/files/is_059.pdf">use public transport</a>, and these figures are much <a href="https://blogs.crikey.com.au/theurbanist/2015/01/21/why-do-commuters-drive-to-work-instead-of-taking-transit/">higher for commuters to the CBD</a>. Nonetheless, around <a href="https://bitre.gov.au/publications/2016/files/BITRE_yearbook_2016_statistics_full_report.pdf">eight of every ten kilometres of travel</a> by Sydney and Melbourne residents is by car. </p>
<p>What happens on our roads affects the daily lives of most city dwellers, as well as the social and economic rhythms of the city. The Grattan Institute will publish a fuller analysis of congestion in coming months, to help governments make the best use of our transport networks – and reduce your time on the road.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/79343/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the Federal and Victorian Governments, $4 million from BHP Billiton, and $1 million from NAB. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute’s board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and Grattan uses the income to pursue its activities.</span></em></p>For Melbourne drivers who comfort themselves with the thought that traffic congestion is worse in Sydney, sorry but new analysis shows overall delays are similar, but some commutes are especially bad.Marion Terrill, Transport Program Director, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/781902017-05-29T20:08:20Z2017-05-29T20:08:20ZWhy Gold Coast light rail was worth it (it’s about more than patronage)<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/170715/original/file-20170524-5752-1x5m65f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Southport station, Nerang Street, soon after the light rail began running in 2014.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Matthew Burke</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Gold Coast’s light rail scheme has attracted great interest since the streets of Surfers Paradise were torn up and stations and track were built. Was it worth spending <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-13/gold-coast-light-rail-stage-three-state-and-federal-questions/7411588">A$1.5 billion on 13km</a> of light rail and more than $40 million a year in subsidies? </p>
<p>Are we right to be spending another <a href="http://www.goldcoastbulletin.com.au/news/gold-coast/the-first-sod-has-been-turned-on-420-million-light-rail-stage-2-as-tate-plans-stage-3/news-story/2520cd82de301a34498552b6a6e7dde5">$420 million on an extension</a> to Helensvale in time for the Commonwealth Games? Should we be taking it all the way down to Gold Coast Airport?</p>
<p>Another question is whether gains in property values served by the project could be “<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-value-capture-and-what-does-it-mean-for-cities-58776">captured</a>” to fund such infrastructure. </p>
<p>Previous studies of property values in areas serviced by the light rail showed only modest gains after it opened. <a href="http://sydney.edu.au/business/research/grants/funding_on_the_line">Our research</a> cast a wider net back to when we first started planning the system in 1996 through to the latest data we could get in 2016. </p>
<p>The results were intriguing. We found that prices in the catchment areas started to increase in the earliest planning phases. The effects of the light rail were to push up property values within 800 metres of the stations by more than 30% in total from 1996 to 2016. </p>
<p>This is well above most previous estimates of a light rail system’s effects. This is mainly because we looked earlier for the property value gains and used a carefully designed control to make the comparison. </p>
<h2>Impact after opening seemed modest</h2>
<p>These findings cast a different light on the apparently modest impact of the light rail after it opened. </p>
<p>When the first stage from Broadbeach to our university at Parkwood opened it was well received. But the behaviour change we all hoped for was rather modest at first. After opening in 2014, patronage did not surge compared to bus ridership on the route in earlier years.</p>
<p>New passengers got on board, but it was an uphill climb for the new system. <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/translink-fare-hike-to-make-brisbane-australias-most-expensive-20140103-30910.html">Fare increases of almost 50%</a> from 2010 to 2014 pushed passengers off public transport across southeast Queensland, especially on rail. </p>
<p>Not all passengers enjoyed improved service for their particular journeys either. Those who used to travel through the corridor in a bus now had to break their journey at the light rail terminus and transfer, adding travel time and annoyance. </p>
<p>In the second year of operation, however, <a href="http://www.goldlinq.com.au/news-and-media/g-that-s-successful">patronage jumped 16%</a> and our contacts suggest third-year patronage is tracking well. Subsidies per passenger are falling. The decision to add the connection to Helensvale looks a sound one.</p>
<p>But, seemingly, other changes everyone expected weren’t there. The Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics analysed property values in the corridor <a href="https://bitre.gov.au/publications/2015/files/is_069.pdf">from 2000 to 2013</a> using a coarse geography and didn’t find much evidence of any uplift. This gave many cause for concern. </p>
<p>Reassuringly, Cameron Murray <a href="https://theconversation.com/gold-coast-light-rail-study-helps-put-a-figure-on-value-captures-funding-potential-65084">used valuation data for a similar period</a> using a different geographical scale and found a 10% increase for properties within 400 metres of the new stations. But there was still uncertainty. </p>
<p>Our new research backs up and expands on Murray’s findings, suggesting there was substantial positive impact.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/170714/original/file-20170524-5757-j8ghzz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/170714/original/file-20170524-5757-j8ghzz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170714/original/file-20170524-5757-j8ghzz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170714/original/file-20170524-5757-j8ghzz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170714/original/file-20170524-5757-j8ghzz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170714/original/file-20170524-5757-j8ghzz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170714/original/file-20170524-5757-j8ghzz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Gold Coast light rail under construction at Surfers Paradise in 2013.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What did our research look at?</h2>
<p>Our research team in the <a href="http://sydney.edu.au/business/research/grants/funding_on_the_line">Funding on the Line</a> Australian Research Council Linkage Project took a different approach. </p>
<p>In a peer-reviewed paper, which will shortly be presented at the <a>World Symposium on Transport and Land Use Research</a>, led by Barbara Yen, we used sales data for residential properties along the corridor. Our study compared areas within 800 metres of the stations with a control area containing locations a little further away but still in the same vicinity. </p>
<p>We used a longitudinal methodology to see when the value uplift occurred from back in 1996, when planning of the system first started, through to the latest 2016 data. Property prices in the catchment areas started to increase very early in the planning phase. The property value uplift was highest in the locations between 100 and 400 metres from the stations. </p>
<p>Values went up 11.9% in these locations compared to our control areas between 1996 and the feasibility study’s announcement in 2002. They increased a further 26.3% from 2002 to 2006 over the control areas when the feasibility study was completed. Prices rose only 2.3% from 2006 to 2011 when the formal funding commitment was made and construction began, and then by another 5.4% after the line opened to the end of the study period in 2016. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/170712/original/file-20170524-5749-1f04vgx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/170712/original/file-20170524-5749-1f04vgx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/170712/original/file-20170524-5749-1f04vgx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=225&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170712/original/file-20170524-5749-1f04vgx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=225&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170712/original/file-20170524-5749-1f04vgx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=225&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170712/original/file-20170524-5749-1f04vgx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170712/original/file-20170524-5749-1f04vgx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170712/original/file-20170524-5749-1f04vgx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Timeline of the planning and development of Gold Coast Light Rail Stage 1.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Authors</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The areas less than 100 metres from the stations, and between 400 and 800 metres also recorded strong increases compared to the control areas, though not quite as much. </p>
<p>This is to be expected. Sites closest to the stations received some nuisance from the light rail and road corridor; sites further away obtain fewer advantages in travel time savings for passengers. </p>
<h2>What are the funding implications?</h2>
<p>The property value gains attributable to the project from 1996 to 2016 of more than 30% are very significant. Yet it’s pretty much only the landowners who benefit. </p>
<p>The City of Gold Coast recoups some of its <a href="http://www.goldcoast.qld.gov.au/rapid-transit-6004.html">$120 million investment</a> in the light rail through its rates and its <a>public transport levy on urban residents</a>. The Queensland government may end up getting a little slice via stamp duty as properties are sold. The few pieces of government-owned land likely rose in value. </p>
<p>But the state and federal governments generally have no other mechanisms to take a small sliver of the increased property value their investment generated to help pay for the light rail system or reinvest in public transport elsewhere. We’ve <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-brisbanes-ferries-can-teach-us-about-funding-public-transport-30874">written about this previously</a> in The Conversation and suggested ways we could change the system. </p>
<p>A recent <a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/House/ITC/TransportConnectivity/Report_1">federal parliamentary inquiry</a> and moves to set up “<a href="http://www.luticonsulting.com.au/projects/value-sharing-mechanisms-review-nsw/">value sharing</a>” units in the <a href="http://www.dilgp.qld.gov.au/infrastructure/value-sharing-in-queensland.html">Queensland</a> and <a href="https://www.greater.sydney/digital-district-plan/679">New South Wales</a> governments suggest we are now getting serious about generating alternative funding for public transport. </p>
<p>Our study’s results only add more support to these initiatives. Get it right and we should be able to deliver more metros, busways and light rail to serve our growing population and its increasingly urban way of life.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/78190/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Burke receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Queensland Government Department of Transport and Main Roads, the Motor Accident and Insurance Commission, Transport for NSW, Gold Coast City Council, Logan City Council, Queensland Airports Limited, Lend Lease, and Springfield Land Corporation. </span></em></p>The light rail project pushed up property values within 800 metres of the stations by over 30% from 1996 to 2016. Gains on this scale offer a potential source of finance for public transport.Matthew Burke, Associate Professor, Cities Research Institute, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/747502017-04-23T20:01:03Z2017-04-23T20:01:03ZParking isn’t as important for restaurants as the owners think it is<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162623/original/image-20170327-3308-b9fcmq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Customers who arrive on foot, by bicycle or by public transport contribute significantly more to the restaurant trade than the business owners realise.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mik Scheper/flickr</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Car parking matters to Australian business. Restaurateurs in Australian cities often resist parking management regimes and push local government to increase parking spaces in restaurant precincts. </p>
<p>But are restaurateurs’ perceptions of the importance of car parking to their trade in line with reality?</p>
<p><a href="http://atrf.info/papers/2015/files/ATRF2015_Resubmission_84.pdf">Our research</a> compared this perception to what is actually happening. We did this by looking at customers’ use of transport modes and their spending habits. Our survey focused on three major restaurant precincts in the city of Brisbane – Boundary Street, West End; Eagle Street in the city centre; and Caxton Street, Petrie Terrace.</p>
<p>To explore this question, restaurant businesses and customers were surveyed in parallel. This enabled us to cross-analyse businesses’ perceptions with customers’ travel behaviour. We were then able to evaluate the validity of restaurateurs’ perceptions about the importance of car travel and parking, along with perceptions about transport infrastructure needs.</p>
<h2>The more the better?</h2>
<p>The physical location of a restaurant in the competitive landscape of the city has long been known as a major factor in its likely success or failure. </p>
<p>Once restaurants are established in such environments they can do little about their location. All they can do is work to improve customer access to their premises. </p>
<p>Restaurateurs often do this by engaging in battles with local authorities about car parking. This happens particularly when they see themselves as being in competition with out-of-town or suburban centres with ample parking. And this is often provided free to the customer.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/161261/original/image-20170317-10902-megeem.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/161261/original/image-20170317-10902-megeem.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=572&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/161261/original/image-20170317-10902-megeem.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=572&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/161261/original/image-20170317-10902-megeem.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=572&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/161261/original/image-20170317-10902-megeem.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=719&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/161261/original/image-20170317-10902-megeem.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=719&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/161261/original/image-20170317-10902-megeem.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=719&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ample parking is one reason some restaurateurs shift to the suburbs.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">South-West News, 2014</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Observing customers’ behaviour</h2>
<p>One in three customers in our study walked and/or cycled to the restaurant precincts. </p>
<p>This was significantly the case with Boundary Street. That was partly because the precinct has eight hotels within 200 metres that can accommodate more than 700 visitors (equivalent to 10% of West End’s resident population).</p>
<p>Almost half the customers arrived by public transport, including bus, train and ferry. </p>
<p>In this case, Eagle Street scored highly. This was mainly due to it having the highest parking fee (A$30-$75 for three hours) of the three restaurant precincts. Even in Caxton Street, which has the cheapest parking ($11 for three hours), more than one in three customers travelled by public transport. </p>
<h2>Perception gap</h2>
<p>The survey results reveal a gap between the perceptions of restaurateurs and customers’ actual transport choices. They also have differing points of view on the importance of supplied parking. </p>
<p>Our study asked customers and restaurateurs to rank parking supply. Rankings range from 1 (always available) to 10 (never available). </p>
<p>Of customers who drive to the restaurant precincts, 26% ranked parking availability lower than 5. This suggests just over one-quarter of customers think they will find parking most of the time. </p>
<p>In contrast, 85.7% of the restaurateur respondents ranked parking availability higher than 6. This suggests they believe parking is often not available for their customers.</p>
<p>The following figure shows the difference between the customers’ actual travel mode share and the restaurants’ perception of mode share. Restaurateurs over-estimated by more than double the actual importance of customers who came by car. They neglected the contributions of customers who travelled by public transport (by bus and train). </p>
<p>However, the restaurateurs’ estimates of walking and cycling customers were close to their actual mode shares.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/163757/original/image-20170403-21933-1r1dhfp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/163757/original/image-20170403-21933-1r1dhfp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/163757/original/image-20170403-21933-1r1dhfp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=281&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163757/original/image-20170403-21933-1r1dhfp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=281&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163757/original/image-20170403-21933-1r1dhfp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=281&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163757/original/image-20170403-21933-1r1dhfp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163757/original/image-20170403-21933-1r1dhfp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163757/original/image-20170403-21933-1r1dhfp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Restaurateurs overestimate car use and underestimate public transport use by customers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Customers who travel by car also bring in less revenue than the restaurateurs think. Based on our sample, customers who drove provided less than 20% of revenue for the restaurants they were frequenting. </p>
<p>The biggest portion of restaurant income (66%) came from customers who walked (25%) or took public transport (19% for bus, 16% for train and 6% for ferry).</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/163759/original/image-20170403-21950-11wfewe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/163759/original/image-20170403-21950-11wfewe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/163759/original/image-20170403-21950-11wfewe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=294&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163759/original/image-20170403-21950-11wfewe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=294&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163759/original/image-20170403-21950-11wfewe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=294&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163759/original/image-20170403-21950-11wfewe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163759/original/image-20170403-21950-11wfewe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163759/original/image-20170403-21950-11wfewe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Revenue from public transport users and walkers is more than restaurateurs think. Car users’ contribution is much
less.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What if customers act as restaurateurs expect?</h2>
<p>Our research investigated whether restaurateurs are correct in believing that more parking will deliver them increased profits. </p>
<p>According to the simulation results, the percentage of car customers can be increased to 52% by reducing travel costs by 30%. This would be equivalent to $2.89 per person for customers who travelled by car. </p>
<p>However, if there were to be only 300 customers per day this would lead to a 2% decrease in total restaurant revenue. That is because the mode shift towards car use would come from higher-spending walking, cycling or public transport travellers. </p>
<p>However, making a similar intervention to reduce public transport cost by $2.89 (equal to a 55% cost reduction) would lead instead to an increase of 3% in total restaurant revenue.</p>
<p>The results of this approach at three major restaurant precincts in inner-city Brisbane confirm a real gap between the perceptions of the restaurateurs, as businesses, and what their customers actually do. </p>
<p>The findings also imply that restaurateurs would be better off advocating for improved public transport rather than for more parking. Increasing the share of higher-spending public transport users will ultimately boost total revenues. </p>
<p>Customers who walk, cycle or use public transport to get to the restaurant all contribute significantly more to trade than the business owners and managers realise.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/74750/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Barbara T.H. Yen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A new study shows that restaurateurs would be better off advocating for better public transport access to their precincts rather than for more parking.Barbara T.H. Yen, Lecturer in Civil Engineering, Griffith School of Engineering, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.