tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/twitter-trends-7091/articlesTwitter trends – The Conversation2020-10-16T02:21:37Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1478392020-10-16T02:21:37Z2020-10-16T02:21:37ZHow’s your life under lockdown? Tweets tell the tale of how neighbourhoods compare<p>Melbourne has endured one of the <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/is-melbourne-s-coronavirus-lockdown-really-the-longest-in-the-world-here-s-how-other-countries-stack-up">strictest COVID-19 lockdowns</a> in the world. <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-06/coronavirus-restrictions-victorian-government-may-extend-5km/12732058">Public health announcements</a> indicate restrictions are set to continue despite <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-14-day-rolling-average-of-5-new-daily-cases-is-the-wrong-trigger-for-easing-melbourne-lockdown-lets-look-at-under-investigation-cases-instead-147906">experts warning</a> that Victoria is unlikely to get the daily average number of new cases down to just five in the near future. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.monash.edu/mada/research/evaluating-neighbourhood-sentiment">Our research</a> shows some people lack access to the essential services and amenities that support healthy and liveable places during the lockdown. We tracked 80,000 location-based tweets from January 2020 to September 2020 to understand how people are responding to Melbourne’s lockdowns. </p>
<p>Social media such as <a href="https://twitter.com/">Twitter</a> can provide a window into how people are emotionally managing during the lockdown and how well their neighbourhood meets their needs in this challenging time. This is particularly important as policy conversations turn to the importance of 20-minute neighbourhoods and living locally in the post-COVID city.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/people-love-the-idea-of-20-minute-neighbourhoods-so-why-isnt-it-top-of-the-agenda-131193">People love the idea of 20-minute neighbourhoods. So why isn't it top of the agenda?</a>
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<p>Research has shown the inequality of neighbourhood access to services and amenities can have serious <a href="https://theconversation.com/walking-and-cycling-to-work-makes-commuters-happier-and-more-productive-117819">physical</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/parks-and-green-spaces-are-important-for-our-mental-health-but-we-need-to-make-sure-that-everyone-can-benefit-142322">mental health</a> impacts. These differences raise issues of equity and whether <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/oct/10/the-new-covid-normal-is-victoria-ready-to-come-out-of-lockdown">responses are proportionate</a> to the threat. It also means some neighbourhoods are ill-equipped to support the anticipated increase in people working from home during and after the pandemic.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/our-cities-are-full-of-parks-so-why-are-we-looking-to-golf-courses-for-more-open-space-147559">Our cities are full of parks, so why are we looking to golf courses for more open space?</a>
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<h2>Life under lockdown isn’t the same for all</h2>
<p>On August 2, the Victorian government established strict restrictions on movement including a 5km travel bubble and curfew in Melbourne. In a cross-discipline collaboration between Monash’s Art, Design & Architecture and Data Futures Institute, our analysis of Twitter data focused on neighbourhood amenity and opportunity at this point. Our findings reveal the differences in resident well-being across different suburbs during lockdown.</p>
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<img alt="Entrance to Luna Park in St Kilda" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363113/original/file-20201013-17-fxgfaa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363113/original/file-20201013-17-fxgfaa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363113/original/file-20201013-17-fxgfaa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363113/original/file-20201013-17-fxgfaa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363113/original/file-20201013-17-fxgfaa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363113/original/file-20201013-17-fxgfaa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363113/original/file-20201013-17-fxgfaa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Residents of the suburb of St Kilda have been more likely to keep smiling under lockdown than the city as a whole.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Alexa Gower</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>With the introduction of the first lockdown, the number of tweets posted about people’s local neighbourhoods increased by 158% compared to January and February 2020. This highlights how the lockdown turned people’s attention towards their residential area. It also indicates neighbourhood amenities became more significant for people who are no longer commuting to work in Melbourne’s CBD or other places. </p>
<p>People living in areas with poor access to amenities expressed higher levels of negative sentiment about their neighbourhood during the lockdown periods. Sentiment in these areas dropped three times in the year. There was a 13% drop in sentiment in March when the first lockdown came in and another 15.5% fall with the June lockdown 2.0. Sentiment continued to fall by 30% in August. </p>
<p>In contrast, tweets about amenity-rich areas revealed a 4% rise in positive sentiment. These residents detailed how their neighbourhood amenity helped their well-being during this time. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363614/original/file-20201015-21-1apbv62.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart showing trends in positive sentiments in tweets from high- and low-amenity areas" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363614/original/file-20201015-21-1apbv62.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363614/original/file-20201015-21-1apbv62.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=185&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363614/original/file-20201015-21-1apbv62.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=185&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363614/original/file-20201015-21-1apbv62.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=185&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363614/original/file-20201015-21-1apbv62.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=233&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363614/original/file-20201015-21-1apbv62.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=233&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363614/original/file-20201015-21-1apbv62.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=233&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">We see contrasting trends in sentiment in tweets from high-amenity and low-amenity neighbourhoods under lockdown.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/twitter-posts-show-that-people-are-profoundly-sad-and-are-visiting-parks-to-cheer-up-139953">Twitter posts show that people are profoundly sad – and are visiting parks to cheer up</a>
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<h2>Missing aspects of going to work</h2>
<p>We also see that not everyone is as supportive of remote working arrangements as some <a href="https://theconversation.com/remote-working-is-here-to-stay-but-that-doesnt-mean-the-end-of-offices-or-city-centres-145414">studies claim</a>. Before the lockdown, tweets about places in Melbourne often highlighted satisfaction with working environments. These tweets spoke of walking between meetings, and places to gather and eat out: </p>
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<p>Beautiful day in the city – just perfect for walking between meetings and lunch at the cafe. (Outer Melbourne, March 6).</p>
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<p>Under lockdown, the number of tweets with negative sentiment about residential neighbourhoods throughout Melbourne increased by 124%. People posted negative opinions about what was missing from their local area and expressed longing for the amenities found in their workplace. People also missed their daily commute and the opportunity to walk between places outside their neighbourhood: </p>
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<p>Although I’m loving working from home, one thing that I really miss is my walk to the office from the station. (Outer Melbourne, July 9). </p>
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<p>Moreover, tweets highlighted that some people don’t have enough space to work from home </p>
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<p>When I am working at home I’m currently sharing space with the indoor clothes hangers. (Outer Melbourne, April 16).</p>
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<p>These tweets remind us of the challenges some people face when working from home and indicate how commuting enables access to amenities that their neighbourhoods lack. </p>
<h2>Some areas make work from home a joy</h2>
<p>In comparison, tweets that expressed positive neighbourhood sentiment during the lockdown referred specifically to the benefits of parks and public facilities. In high-amenity areas, people expressed gratitude for these places. </p>
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<p>Social isolating done right … I’m so #grateful to have these sort of parks right on my doorstep so I can exercise both me and the dogs 🙂🐕 (Inner Melbourne, March 29)</p>
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<p>Being able to experience the natural environment improved their mood. </p>
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<p>I went outside for a walk and took a moment to stand in a spot where the onshore bay breeze could freely hit me in the face while I listened to <em>Sign ☮️ the Times</em>. I needed that so badly. #starfishandcoffee’ (Inner Melbourne, April 16)</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/parks-and-green-spaces-are-important-for-our-mental-health-but-we-need-to-make-sure-that-everyone-can-benefit-142322">Parks and green spaces are important for our mental health – but we need to make sure that everyone can benefit</a>
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<p>Some were happy to spend more time locally even when lockdown measures had eased. </p>
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<p>The joys of working from home and walking to support our local coffee shop. Then you are pleasantly surprised by Teddy and his marmalade skills. Just sweet! (Outer Melbourne, May 27)</p>
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<p>Increased positive sentiment about local amenity continued longer into the year than negative tweets, highlighting the broad benefits local amenities provide to communities. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363616/original/file-20201015-15-13kaufp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart showing sentiment trends for Sandringham, St Kilda and Greater Melbourne." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363616/original/file-20201015-15-13kaufp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363616/original/file-20201015-15-13kaufp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=139&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363616/original/file-20201015-15-13kaufp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=139&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363616/original/file-20201015-15-13kaufp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=139&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363616/original/file-20201015-15-13kaufp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=174&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363616/original/file-20201015-15-13kaufp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=174&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363616/original/file-20201015-15-13kaufp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=174&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">How people fare under lockdown has a lot to do with where they live.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<h2>Work to be done on neighbourhood amenity</h2>
<p>Comparing Melbourne’s Twitter data across different places provides insight into the impacts of neighbourhood amenity on resident well-being during lockdown. It also shows the uneven access to important neighbourhood facilities in different places and the consequences for remote working. </p>
<p>The lockdown experience highlights that if Melbourne is serious about achieving a city of 20-minute neighbourhoods, there is immediate work to do to improve access to everyday amenities and support remote working.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/reclaiming-the-streets-we-all-can-have-a-say-in-the-new-normal-after-coronavirus-137703">Reclaiming the streets? We all can have a say in the 'new normal' after coronavirus</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/147839/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Carl Grodach receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dickson Lukose receives funding from Australian Research Council, and Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation Malaysia. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Geoff Webb receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Medical Research Future Fund and the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alexa Gower and Liton Kamruzzaman do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The differences in sentiment in areas of high and low neighbourhood amenity have been clear under Melbourne’s tough COVID restrictions. It’s further evidence of the impacts of inequity on well-being.Alexa Gower, Postdoctoral researcher, Monash UniversityCarl Grodach, Professor and Director of Urban Planning & Design, Monash UniversityDickson Lukose, Professor and Senior Data Scientist, Data Futures Institute, Monash UniversityGeoff Webb, Professor and Research Director, Data Futures Institute, Monash UniversityLiton Kamruzzaman, Associate Professor of Urban Planning, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1466142020-10-12T14:35:22Z2020-10-12T14:35:22ZHow young, queer Nigerians use Twitter to shape identity and fight homophobia<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362961/original/file-20201012-15-111yxf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Nigeria continues to be <a href="https://africanarguments.org/2019/08/14/nigeria-survey-shows-decrease-in-homophobic-attitudes-kind-of/">largely homophobic</a>, mainly as a result of cultural and religious conventions. Negative perceptions of homosexuality led to the <a href="https://www.refworld.org/pdfid/52f4d9cc4.pdf">criminalisation</a> of same-sex relations in 2014. The Nigerian environment is therefore toxic for LGBTI people. They become <a href="https://www.hrw.org/report/2016/10/20/tell-me-where-i-can-be-safe/impact-nigerias-same-sex-marriage-prohibition-act">easy prey</a> to oppressive and exploitative state security apparatus. They are also vulnerable to public “moral police” who seek to make homosexual performance invisible and closeted. </p>
<p>One may assume that the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-do-nigerian-gay-and-bisexual-men-cope-this-is-what-they-told-us-117121">marginalised</a> Nigerian same-sex community and its allies have conceded to the widespread societal ostracisation. But that would be to ignore the vigorous advocacies that have been going on in the country’s cultural production and on social media.</p>
<p>Films and literary texts have been the more <a href="https://muse.jhu.edu/article/622200/pdf">studied</a> genres where same-sex agency has been iterated and reinforced. In <a href="https://theconversation.com/from-nollywood-to-new-nollywood-the-story-of-nigerias-runaway-success-47959">Nollywood</a> – the country’s film industry – early <a href="https://muse.jhu.edu/article/465728/pdf">depictions</a> were <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/10509208.2020.1714324">constructed</a> by non-LGBTI people who seemed to latch on public inquisitiveness for financial gains. </p>
<p>More recently, however, members of the Nigerian queer community have taken over the task of shaping their public image and identity, to reasonable success, in these creative ventures. They have done so through movies as well as a growing body of <a href="https://theconversation.com/nigerias-queer-literature-offers-a-new-way-of-looking-at-blackness-133649">literary</a> writings.</p>
<p>Social media, however, can be considered more potent as a medium which, to the authors of <em><a href="https://books.google.co.za/books/about/The_Alternative_Media_Handbook.html?id=AFCzBqqaw-QC&redir_esc=y">The Alternative Media Handbook</a></em>, gives voice to “the socially, culturally and politically excluded”. </p>
<p>By unpacking “live” data from members of the queer community, one can identify the challenges as well as advocacies in Nigerian digital queer discourse. That’s what I did in a <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13696815.2020.1806799">study</a> of queer Nigerian Twitter. To explore the diversity of queer agency, I analysed selected tweets by Nigerian queer men. As a linguist, my focus was on identifying and discussing how the performative use of language can achieve the functions of coming out as well as confronting homophobic cyberbullying.</p>
<h2>Twitter as a safer space</h2>
<p>Twitter has <a href="https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2019-nigeria?rq=Nigeria">grown</a> to become a very popular microblogging platform in Nigeria, accounting for about 1.75 million users, with an annual growth rate of 4.4%. Communities with shared interests are built online. The queer community in Nigeria is no doubt on the margins, but it has found <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00918369.2018.1511131">digital platforms</a> safe havens for collective queer voices. </p>
<p>The digital space, I found, has become a location for the representation and assertion of queer agency. What I found interesting in these narratives was that these commenters were not only ready to come out on a “public” digital space, they were also expressive in revealing their offline identities. This despite the possibilities of homophobic violence. </p>
<p>In expressing and owning their sexuality online, Nigerian queers, for instance through their Twitter names, spell out their sexuality as they incorporate vocabulary like “gay”, “homo” and “queer”. And they use the <a href="https://www.genderopen.de/bitstream/handle/25595/1489/cu16v8a14.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y">rainbow</a> – a global symbol of LGBTI advocacy – in their Twitter handles and names.</p>
<p>They also own their profiles by either using their personal images or other suggestive queer-positive ones to indicate their sexual orientation. These realisations are central to queer agency, especially as the users I analysed live in Nigeria and are willing to challenge the existing normative sexuality structures. For example:</p>
<p>“This year I accepted the entirety of my sexuality and it’s one thing I’m very grateful about. I remember those days when I use to beat myself, cut myself, cry, pray and do all shits for being gay. Those days that I had to go to various priests for deliverance and guidance.”</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1208705795011096576"}"></div></p>
<p>This Twitter user reveals their sexual orientation within a narrative which expresses the difficulties of their lived reality. What is striking is the conviction of self-acceptance and the roles played by the online queer community in the affirmation of this. </p>
<h2>Anti-homophobic advocacy</h2>
<p>Even more exciting is how these Twitter users engage in anti-homophobic advocacy. They turn the narrative around by exploiting online platforms towards positive self-presentation. They also respond to and challenge their cyber-aggressors and other homophobic commentators. They further acknowledge the necessity of support, like this tweet:</p>
<p>“Nigerian parents need peer support groups; especially parents with LGBTQ kids. I think one of the reasons they suffer so much is that they don’t know/talk to each other and they think they are alone. But there are lots of parents going through the same struggles across Nigeria.”</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1215894096495153152"}"></div></p>
<p>This acknowledges the role of the family as a domain of socialisation in normalising same-sex relations. Or this: “I think that social media really helps our generation with this. I wonder if they’re too far gone to also take advantage.”</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1215921816226729985"}"></div></p>
<p>This extends the discussion to the advantages of social media in queer outreaches. The tweets I analysed draw attention to, among others, the role of family relationships, homosexual allies and larger non-queer communities in helping Nigerian LGBTI people express and accept themselves. The advocacies are geared towards providing information concerning the naturalness of their sexual orientation.</p>
<h2>Rewriting the narrative</h2>
<p>The tweets have sociological implications as ways of creating meaning. They humanise the commenters as legitimate members of Nigerian society and attest to the naturalness of queer identities. The online discussions provide visibility for a marginalised community. </p>
<p>Since the tweets contest the normative portrayals of same-sex relations, they also constitute activist representations. These queer Nigerian males use digital platforms for the purpose of identity formation. In this self-assertion, they contest the monochromic representations perpetuated in popular culture. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nigerias-queer-literature-offers-a-new-way-of-looking-at-blackness-133649">Nigeria's queer literature offers a new way of looking at blackness</a>
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<p>The tweets I studied speak out against the bigotry and hate messages which are directed at them. They accentuate the human rights concern that a person’s sexuality is their personal decision. And they correct the perspective that problematises homosexuality as being the same as other social ills. </p>
<p>More crucially, I conclude, in view of the stifling and homophobic lived realities in Nigeria, these narratives engender conversations around the issue of queer visibility and acceptance within Nigerian society.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/146614/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Onanuga receives funding from the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation of Germany. </span></em></p>Despite same-sex relations being criminal, social media is a space to come out and speak back to homophobia for the Nigerian tweeters in the study.Paul Onanuga, Lecturer, Federal University, Oye EkitiLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1444032020-08-14T04:58:19Z2020-08-14T04:58:19ZThe story of #DanLiedPeopleDied: how a hashtag reveals Australia’s ‘information disorder’ problem<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352875/original/file-20200814-18-v25mcf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C0%2C4015%2C2659&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>At midday on August 12 2020, the hashtag #DanLiedPeopleDied started trending on Twitter. By evening it had attracted over 10,000 tweets. </p>
<p>The hashtag appeared to reflect widespread public distrust in Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews’ handling of the coronavirus outbreak. In reality, however, it was driven by a small number of fringe, hyper-partisan accounts – and some that appear entirely inauthentic.</p>
<p>The success of this relatively small campaign is a symptom of Australia’s growing problem with “information disorder”.</p>
<h2>What is #DanLiedPeopleDied and where did it come from?</h2>
<p>The hashtag is a variation on #ChinaLiedPeopleDied, which has <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/04/08/coronavirus-spreads-so-does-online-racism-targeting-asians-new-research-shows/">fuelled anti-Chinese sentiment and racism</a>. The idea that “China lied” includes everything from criticism of the Chinese government’s handling of the outbreak to Sinophobia and racist hate speech. </p>
<p>Likewise, “Dan lied” conflates Victoria’s 289 coronavirus-related deaths with claims the premier <a href="https://www.afr.com/rear-window/daniel-andrews-not-so-judicial-quarantine-inquiry-20200722-p55efp">acted</a> or <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/breaking-news/victoria-emergency-management-commissioner-backs-daniel-andrews-controversial-adf-claims/news-story/aadd60bd70f7b70179b80ad9fc29afa4">spoke</a> falsely to cover up his administration’s culpability.</p>
<p>Against this backdrop, #DanLiedPeopleDied first appeared on Twitter on July 14, 2020, in a reply to academic and political commentator <a href="https://twitter.com/vanOnselenP">Peter van Onselen</a>:</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352673/original/file-20200813-18-1qlhow.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352673/original/file-20200813-18-1qlhow.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=267&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352673/original/file-20200813-18-1qlhow.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=267&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352673/original/file-20200813-18-1qlhow.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=267&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352673/original/file-20200813-18-1qlhow.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352673/original/file-20200813-18-1qlhow.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352673/original/file-20200813-18-1qlhow.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The first tweet using the hashtag #DanLiedPeopleDied on Twitter.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This account uses a profile photo of the fictional character <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/entertainment/6757531.stm">Les Patterson</a> (played by Barry Humphries) and mainly posts on three topics: criticism of the Victorian government, anti-China, and anti-police. </p>
<p>One slight problem, though: if you scroll back through the account’s timeline, you can see that prior to February 16, it only tweeted about Egyptian politics, in Arabic. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352674/original/file-20200813-22-1ar30m1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352674/original/file-20200813-22-1ar30m1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=305&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352674/original/file-20200813-22-1ar30m1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=305&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352674/original/file-20200813-22-1ar30m1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=305&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352674/original/file-20200813-22-1ar30m1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352674/original/file-20200813-22-1ar30m1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352674/original/file-20200813-22-1ar30m1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The account suddenly switches languages, countries and politics.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This sudden switch in personas and topics is a pattern often seen in fake accounts used in <a href="https://secondaryinfektion.org/downloads/secondary-infektion-report.pdf">disinformation operations</a>. We cannot know for sure if this account is part of an information operation, but it is certainly not typical behaviour.</p>
<p>Not much happened for several weeks after the initial #DanLiedPeopleDied tweet. Then, on the morning of August 12, a small group of mainly fringe, hyper-partisan accounts made a concerted effort to get the hashtag to trend. </p>
<p>This led to much more engagement. These fringe accounts were bolstered by newly created, suspicious accounts that helped to amplify their tweets.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352675/original/file-20200813-24-1t8crlp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352675/original/file-20200813-24-1t8crlp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352675/original/file-20200813-24-1t8crlp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352675/original/file-20200813-24-1t8crlp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352675/original/file-20200813-24-1t8crlp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352675/original/file-20200813-24-1t8crlp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352675/original/file-20200813-24-1t8crlp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The rise and fall of #DanLiedPeopleDied.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Around midday, these efforts met some success: #DanLiedPeopleDied appeared on Twitter’s Australian “trending” list. This made it visible to a much larger audience. </p>
<p>Shortly after the hashtag started trending, controversial far-right influencer Avi Yemini (@OzraeliAvi) tweeted it to his 116,000 followers, inciting them to “keep it going”. The hashtag quickly climbed the trending list until it reached number one in Australia. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352677/original/file-20200813-16-13iywve.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352677/original/file-20200813-16-13iywve.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=851&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352677/original/file-20200813-16-13iywve.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=851&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352677/original/file-20200813-16-13iywve.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=851&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352677/original/file-20200813-16-13iywve.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1070&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352677/original/file-20200813-16-13iywve.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1070&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352677/original/file-20200813-16-13iywve.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1070&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Throughout the afternoon, #DanLiedPeopleDied attracted a surge of tweets, retweets and likes – both supportive and critical. Attempts to criticise this divisive hashtag only served to amplify and spread it further.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/bushfires-bots-and-arson-claims-australia-flung-in-the-global-disinformation-spotlight-129556">Bushfires, bots and arson claims: Australia flung in the global disinformation spotlight</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Amplification by ‘newborn’ and inauthentic accounts</h2>
<p>I analysed 7,304 tweets containing #DanLiedPeopleDied and found a disproportionate number were from recently created accounts. Most had been created in 2020, followed by 2018 and 2019. </p>
<p>Newborn accounts created in the past few weeks particularly contributed to magnifying the attempts by fringe accounts to get the hashtag to trend. They may have tipped it over the line, though we cannot know exactly how much impact they had. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352678/original/file-20200813-16-1oitvc1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352678/original/file-20200813-16-1oitvc1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352678/original/file-20200813-16-1oitvc1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352678/original/file-20200813-16-1oitvc1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352678/original/file-20200813-16-1oitvc1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352678/original/file-20200813-16-1oitvc1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352678/original/file-20200813-16-1oitvc1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For comparison, I also looked at 31,393 tweets mentioning “DanielAndrewsMP” during the same period (representing the broader Twitter conversation about the Victorian premier). The creation dates of these accounts are spread more evenly over the past decade, as we might expect. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352679/original/file-20200813-24-16o5a0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352679/original/file-20200813-24-16o5a0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352679/original/file-20200813-24-16o5a0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352679/original/file-20200813-24-16o5a0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352679/original/file-20200813-24-16o5a0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352679/original/file-20200813-24-16o5a0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352679/original/file-20200813-24-16o5a0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As further evidence, 17,937 recent tweets containing the hashtag #IStandWithDan (positive support for Daniel Andrews) show a similar pattern of account creation dates spread across the past decade.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352681/original/file-20200813-16-mgkjqg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352681/original/file-20200813-16-mgkjqg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352681/original/file-20200813-16-mgkjqg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352681/original/file-20200813-16-mgkjqg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352681/original/file-20200813-16-mgkjqg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352681/original/file-20200813-16-mgkjqg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352681/original/file-20200813-16-mgkjqg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Not bots, but not authentic</h2>
<p>In the leadup to #DanLiedPeopleDied trending on Twitter, a small number of fringe and suspicious newborn accounts tweeted constantly to criticise Daniel Andrews. Many lack real profile photos, show no other interests, and in some cases tweet every few minutes about the same topic for hours at a time. </p>
<p>They do not appear to be automated (“bots”), but more like trolls or sockpuppet accounts (false identities used for deceptive purposes). For instance, before and after #DanLiedPeopleDied start trending, one account (created on July 21) spammed the hashtag more than 200 times in the space of seven hours – roughly one tweet every two minutes. </p>
<p>Many of the tweets were posts of low-effort memes and images criticising Daniel Andrews, with #DanLiedPeopleDied simply attached.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352682/original/file-20200813-18-azzycl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352682/original/file-20200813-18-azzycl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352682/original/file-20200813-18-azzycl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352682/original/file-20200813-18-azzycl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352682/original/file-20200813-18-azzycl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352682/original/file-20200813-18-azzycl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352682/original/file-20200813-18-azzycl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Information disorder and the future of Australian politics</h2>
<p>It is hard to determine the exact nature of the #DanLiedPeopleDied campaign. It has elements of disinformation (false information knowingly spread to deceive or cause harm), misinformation (inadvertent sharing of false information), and possibly malinformation (genuine information with the context deliberately changed). </p>
<p>In various ways, it shows a mixed bag of symptoms relating to what has been described as <a href="https://firstdraftnews.org/latest/information-disorder-the-techniques-we-saw-in-2016-have-evolved/">information disorder</a>. </p>
<p>In this way, the hashtag serves to pollute the national discussion of the Victorian COVID-19 outbreak. Among other things, it brings together highly emotive content, satire and parody, genuinely concerned but misinformed citizens, and suspicious activity from seemingly malicious actors. </p>
<p>However, as American social media expert <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/misinformation-has-created-a-new-world-disorder/">Claire Wardle has argued</a>, the key element may be the “weaponisation of context”:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The most effective disinformation has always been that which has a kernel of truth to it, and indeed most of the content being disseminated now is not fake — it is misleading. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>While there may be a kernel of truth in #DanLiedPeopleDied — people have died, and there are legitimate questions about the government’s actions — it is misleading to call Andrews a liar. Like its progenitor, #ChinaLiedPeopleDied, the hashtag’s purpose is to sow division.</p>
<p>Even if getting #DanLiedPeopleDied to trend was not the result of a disinformation campaign, the <em>outcome</em> serves the goals of disinformation: to drive a wedge into pre-existing fractures in society, to confuse citizens and cultivate distrust in democratic institutions and authorities. </p>
<p>Australians have a right to ask questions about government handling of COVID-19 and to hold those in power accountable. But when genuine concerns become mixed up with “information voids” where facts are not established or available, where mainstream media pursues partisan agendas, and when social media make it quicker and easier than ever to uncritically share content, we find ourselves <a href="https://www.wilsoncenter.org/book/how-lose-information-war-russia-fake-news-and-future-conflict">at risk of losing the information war</a>.</p>
<p>That a handful of fringe and suspicious accounts could get #DanLiedPeopleDied to become the top trending hashtag on Twitter is a symptom of information disorder. It is a wake-up call for Australia to adopt a <a href="https://www.globsec.org/2020/06/22/eus-new-call-to-action-against-disinformation-a-new-hope-for-the-whole-of-society-approach/">whole-of-society approach</a> to safeguard its democracy against the coming tides of disinformation. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/disinformation-campaigns-are-murky-blends-of-truth-lies-and-sincere-beliefs-lessons-from-the-pandemic-140677">Disinformation campaigns are murky blends of truth, lies and sincere beliefs – lessons from the pandemic</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/144403/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Timothy Graham receives funding from The Australian Institute Centre for Responsible Technology.</span></em></p>Small groups of fringe activists pushing online disinformation are a growing threat to Australian democracy.Timothy Graham, Senior Lecturer, Queensland University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1133122019-03-15T11:07:16Z2019-03-15T11:07:16ZTitania McGrath: Twitter parody of ‘wokeness’ owes a lot to satirists of the 18th century<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263974/original/file-20190314-28499-1y4h74i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C3%2C752%2C459&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Titania McGrath: not for the easily offended.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Twitter</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Depending on who you are, Titania McGrath’s tweets offend, baffle or inspire you – or you just might find them hilarious. Since April 2018, McGrath – who <a href="https://twitter.com/TitaniaMcGrath?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor">describes herself</a> on her Twitter page as: “Activist. Healer. Radical intersectionalist poet. Selfless and brave” has been, tweeting several times a day from the perspective of a young and “woke” left-wing, woman. At the most recent count she has 242,000 followers.</p>
<p>But she isn’t real. McGrath is, in fact, the invention of comedian <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/unmasked-twitter-satirist-who-pokes-fun-at-woke-bm20vbwcf">Andrew Doyle</a>, a columnist for Spiked magazine and co-writer of the scripts delivered by the equally fictitious news reporter, <a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v%3DDM9MffjoVgk&sa=D&ust=1552583616674000&usg=AFQjCNECXlA-WeuhLniPM_-UA9JSUIGpTw">Jonathan Pie</a>. </p>
<p>It might seem that the Titania McGrath phenomenon could only happen in the social-media obsessed world of 2019, but this kind of satirical hoax has been happening since the 18th century. </p>
<p>The McGrath story recalls that of 18th-century astrologer <a href="http://hoaxes.org/bickerstaff.html">Isaac Bickerstaff</a>. In February 1708, Bickerstaff published an almanac in which he foretold the death of John Partridge, a controversial social commentator who had recently offended many with his criticism of the Anglican Church. This was followed on March 31 by a pamphlet confirming that Partridge had indeed now died.</p>
<p>But Partridge wasn’t dead. When he awoke on April 1 he was met with questions about his own funeral. He quickly published a pamphlet asserting that he was alive, but Bickerstaff coolly rejected it as a ghoulish hoax. He claimed that anyone who spoke to Partridge’s wife would hear that he had neither “life nor soul”. Unfortunately for Partridge, the public believed Bickerstaff.</p>
<p>Bickerstaff was later revealed to be a fictional persona created by the celebrated satirist Jonathan Swift, author of Gulliver’s Travels. Swift, concerned by what he considered to be Partridge’s dangerous views on the church, had decided to take him down a notch or two. As April’s Fool jokes go, Swift’s perhaps went too far.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/eight-surprising-things-its-time-you-knew-about-gullivers-travels-88061">Eight surprising things it's time you knew about Gulliver’s Travels</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Unspeakable thoughts</h2>
<p>Bickerstaff and McGrath were both created to critique views that their creators objected to. Doyle has said that McGrath was <a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/03/12/why-i-invented-titania-mcgrath/&sa=D&ust=1552583616675000&usg=AFQjCNHunDya4w0lIAfM_DtOqlBJIDG5oA">designed to satirise</a> a perceived obsession with identity politics and social justice. </p>
<p>The name Titania is a conscious reference to Shakespeare’s Queen of the Fairies in <a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.britannica.com/topic/A-Midsummer-Nights-Dream-play-by-Shakespeare&sa=D&ust=1552583616675000&usg=AFQjCNHq27TL2gfQwAOqGfRJOswhdS38Bw">A Midsummer Night’s Dream</a>, said Doyle. She – or people like her – live in a fantasy world that is so powerful in its policing of language and thought that many things <a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/03/12/why-i-invented-titania-mcgrath/&sa=D&ust=1552583616676000&usg=AFQjCNFvJygRr83xooWvXJlXujCfMPvtVg">have become unsayable</a>.</p>
<p>Wherever our sympathies might lie in response to such claims, the McGrath account and the responses to it have much to tell us about the current climate for satire and about satire’s history.</p>
<p>The Titania McGrath project was helped by the speed with which Twitter allows its users to post and retweet. One of the account’s <a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://twitter.com/TitaniaMcGrath/status/1104556853550374913&sa=D&ust=1552583616672000&usg=AFQjCNFFDosN0SkgVQm5wUsc2kLZbMAfFg">most “liked” tweets</a> amassed more than 20,000 likes in 11 days, not to mention nearly 2,000 comments.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1104556853550374913"}"></div></p>
<p>It’s easy to assume that this could only happen in the age of the internet – but Swift’s readers were in a very similar situation. Along with lapses in licensing rules, cheap print – much like social media – meant that <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/4286515?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">suddenly more and more people could publish material</a>. This explosion of print was directly responsible for a literary period often heralded as the <a href="http://www.uh.edu/honors/Programs-Minors/honors-and-the-schools/houston-teachers-institute/curriculum-units/pdfs/2008/comedy/green-08-comedy.pdf">great age of British satire</a>. For Swift, Alexander Pope, Lady Mary Montagu and many other satirists, print provided their targets, their platform and their audience.</p>
<p>Reading 21st-century social media, like reading 18th-century print, sometimes means not knowing whether you are reading fact or fiction – or indeed whether the person who wrote what you are reading is really who they say they are. Under these conditions, a Bickerstaff or a McGrath can emerge all too easily.</p>
<h2>You can fool some people …</h2>
<p>Many Twitter users realised quickly that McGrath was intended as satire, and indeed sought to join in with the joke. Others took the picture of a young woman as a representation of reality and sought to correct and edify her. Others still frequently ask: “Is this satire?” – a response which can indicate genuine confusion, but which is also itself a rhetorical move (“this is so stupid it <em>must</em> be satire!”)</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263978/original/file-20190314-28496-1g7dnwp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263978/original/file-20190314-28496-1g7dnwp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263978/original/file-20190314-28496-1g7dnwp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263978/original/file-20190314-28496-1g7dnwp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263978/original/file-20190314-28496-1g7dnwp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263978/original/file-20190314-28496-1g7dnwp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263978/original/file-20190314-28496-1g7dnwp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263978/original/file-20190314-28496-1g7dnwp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This must be satire … right?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Twitter</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>All three of these categories of response enabled the McGrath account at least partly to fulfil its mission: to shine a light on – and invite ridicule of – the folly Doyle perceives in society. Similarly, Swift used Bickerstaff to articulate his concerns with Partridge’s rhetoric in a way he never could as himself. </p>
<p>It sometimes seems like our world is more complicated than ever, but it’s useful to remember that so much of this has happened before. Doyle and Swift each created personas, exploiting a media climate where truth is hard to verify. At the same time, though, they used these fictional personas to speak a truth they felt they couldn’t convey otherwise. Perhaps the most crucial element in the success or failure of personas like these is how receptive the audience is to the message that the would-be satirist wishes to convey.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/113312/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adam J Smith is affiliated with the Labour Party and the University and College Union. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jo Waugh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Spoof Twitter accounts carry on a grand tradition of satire that has its roots in the 18th century.Adam J Smith, Lecturer in 18th-century Literature, York St John UniversityJo Waugh, Senior Lecturer in English Literature, York St John UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/999592018-07-16T14:18:30Z2018-07-16T14:18:30ZCroatia’s World Cup consolation: Google searches soar as world seeks information on finalists<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/227783/original/file-20180716-44070-nrewbm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=39%2C32%2C4317%2C2880&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Facundo Arrizabalaga</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Croatia may have lost to France in the World Cup final, but the small Eastern European nation may just have won something altogether more precious – worldwide recognition on a whole new level.</p>
<p>Social media users are tweeting about Croatia like never before and web searches are through the roof. The country has long been a holiday hotspot, but many people don’t seem to know much more than that about it. That all seemed to change dramatically over the World Cup.</p>
<p>Croatia’s progress to the 2018 final was something of a surprise. Coming from a nation of just 4m people, the team displayed true character and grit to battle to the end to take on France, one of the favourites to win. And while Croatia didn’t take home the trophy, the nation is likely to benefit massively in other ways.</p>
<p>Google Trends data highlights, astonishingly, that Google web search queries for “Croatia” have increased <a href="https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=US&q=Croatia">to the highest levels in history</a> as people around the world search and locate information using the keyword “Croatia”. Google ranks search popularity from zero to 100, where a value of 100 is the peak popularity for a term, and 50 half as popular. In the 2014 tournament, Croatia’s score was 28, in 2018 the score is 100. </p>
<p>In a period of just one hour during the semi-final, 350,000 tweets were also sent out including the word “Croatia”. That’s roughly 80 times more than on an average day. And towards the end of the night on the day of the final against France, more than a million tweets had been sent out that included the word “Croatia”. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/227700/original/file-20180715-27039-1kjhg5t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/227700/original/file-20180715-27039-1kjhg5t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/227700/original/file-20180715-27039-1kjhg5t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/227700/original/file-20180715-27039-1kjhg5t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/227700/original/file-20180715-27039-1kjhg5t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/227700/original/file-20180715-27039-1kjhg5t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/227700/original/file-20180715-27039-1kjhg5t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/227700/original/file-20180715-27039-1kjhg5t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tweets about Croatia increased massively on final day.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Visibrain</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A country would usually have to spend millions if they wanted to gain this type of interest. This itself is a very rewarding aspect of progression in the tournament as it equates to massive free exposure for a nation.</p>
<h2>Your next holiday?</h2>
<p>Even before the final, the Croatian tourist board announced it had observed a 250% increase in <a href="http://www.intellinews.com/croatian-tourist-sector-capitalises-on-international-attention-as-nation-s-football-team-heads-for-world-cup-final-145062/">website visits</a> from across the world, compared to the same time last year. Croatian tourism outlets also capitalised on the increased interest by launching specific marketing communications across <a href="https://www.total-croatia-news.com/travel/29715-world-cup-success-brings-record-number-of-visitors-to-croatia-s-tourism-homepage">social media</a>. This included a promotional video shared on YouTube by
the Croatian National Tourist Board which has been <a href="https://www.total-croatia-news.com/travel/29715-world-cup-success-brings-record-number-of-visitors-to-croatia-s-tourism-homepage">viewed over 250,000 times</a>. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, the Croatian economy seemed to be enjoying a boost from World Cup interest at home. The national tax administration indicated <a href="http://www.intellinews.com/croatian-tourist-sector-capitalises-on-international-attention-as-nation-s-football-team-heads-for-world-cup-final-145062/">an increase in spend during the tournament</a>. Individual stores reported a <a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-soccer-worldcup-cro-eng-croatia/cheers-croatia-fans-boost-economy-with-beer-sales-idUKKBN1K22C0">400% increase in sales</a> as compared to previous years as locals stocked up on <a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-soccer-worldcup-cro-eng-croatia/cheers-croatia-fans-boost-economy-with-beer-sales-idUKKBN1K22C0">beverages, snacks, and television sets</a>.</p>
<p>Although it was not the dream end for a Croatian team which showed extreme courage in reaching the final, progressing in the tournament has led to a monumental increase in the digital footprint of the country. That, in turn, has the potential to deliver tangible benefits to the Croatian economy and the tourism sector.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>More evidence-based articles about football and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/world-cup-2018-11490?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=WorldCup2018">World Cup</a>:</em></p>
<ul>
<li><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/the-world-cup-in-digital-and-social-the-viewers-the-tweets-and-the-trolls-99625?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=WorldCup2018">The World Cup in digital and social: the viewers, the tweets and the trolls</a></em></p></li>
<li><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/why-football-may-still-be-coming-home-to-france-99808?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=WorldCup2018">Football came home after all … to France</a></em></p></li>
<li><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/what-does-fifa-really-want-out-of-this-world-cup-97393?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=WorldCup2018">What does FIFA really want out of this World Cup?</a></em></p></li>
</ul><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/99959/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Wasim Ahmed is a part of the not-for-profit Social Media Research Foundation and a social media blogger for Visibrain. </span></em></p>Croatia lost to France but has won unprecedented public exposure.Wasim Ahmed, Assistant Professor in Digital Business, Northumbria University, NewcastleLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/875992017-11-23T19:10:29Z2017-11-23T19:10:29ZWe learn from our mistakes: how to make better predictions from tweets<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/195992/original/file-20171123-6072-hcjpri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">How do we know that what people tweet is what they really think?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/AlesiaKan</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Social media is viewed as a potential goldmine of information. The key is to work out how to mine this abundant source of public sentiment. </p>
<p>Linking social media sentiment with human behaviour is a relatively new and evolving field of study. It has a lot of potential – we successfully used it to <a href="https://app.secure.griffith.edu.au/news/2016/11/30/big-data-analytics-nostradamus-of-the-21st-century/">predict the result of the 2016 US election</a>. </p>
<p>But <a href="https://theconversation.com/social-media-study-points-to-a-close-result-in-the-same-sex-marriage-vote-84436">we got it wrong</a> with Australia’s same-sex marriage survey, and here’s why.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-the-numbers-say-and-dont-say-in-the-same-sex-marriage-survey-87096">What the numbers say (and don't say) in the same-sex marriage survey</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>We crunched the numbers</h2>
<p>We carefully <a href="https://theconversation.com/social-media-study-points-to-a-close-result-in-the-same-sex-marriage-vote-84436">sampled the sentiment</a> of 458,565 anonymised Australian tweets that made reference to same-sex marriage. We found 72% overall support for Yes. This was averaged out from the whole month of October. </p>
<p>But we noticed that some Twitter accounts had sent more than 1,000 tweets related to same-sex marriage. The number of unique users was down to just 207,287. </p>
<p>It seemed wise to minimise the influence of these bulk tweets because by the time they were sent, many of the votes had already been cast. Discounting the influence of the bulk tweets brought Yes support down to 57%.</p>
<p>Once we adjusted another 8% for the under-representation of the over-55 demographic in the Twitter sample, we concluded that the overall support for Yes was down to 49%. </p>
<h2>With the benefit of hindsight</h2>
<p>In previous successful trials we had assumed that all tweets are equal. If we had made the same assumption in this trial and did everything else the same, then – re-crunching the numbers – our prediction for Yes would have been 59.08%, which is close to the <a href="https://marriagesurvey.abs.gov.au/results/">official result of 61.6%</a>.</p>
<p>We made the incorrect assumption that the bulk tweeting would not be influential because the voting was spread across several weeks. </p>
<p>In our previous <a href="https://theconversation.com/social-media-study-points-to-a-close-result-in-the-same-sex-marriage-vote-84436">article</a> we acknowledged the influence of bulk tweeting. We said that campaign tweets would have influenced public opinion to some degree, but we anticipated it to a much lower extent.</p>
<p>So there are lessons to be learned from this for any future analysis.</p>
<h2>Success stories</h2>
<p>So far we’ve talked mainly about when we were wrong and why. But what about those times when the Big Data and Smart Analytics Lab got it right? </p>
<p>The Lab correctly <a href="https://app.secure.griffith.edu.au/news/2016/11/30/big-data-analytics-nostradamus-of-the-21st-century/">predicted</a> no less than 48 out of 50 US State elections held at the same time as the 2016 presidential election, which we also correctly called. </p>
<p>We called the Coalition’s win in the 2016 Australian federal election. And our method gave a clear indication that “Brexit” would prevail over “Bremain”, contrary to the polling before Britain’s referendum on European Union membership.</p>
<p>In all of these cases, we were sampling the social media sentiment leading up to a specific election day when all would be decided. The election result is a snapshot of how the voters feel on that day. </p>
<p>With the same-sex marriage survey, the voting was spread across several weeks, making it difficult to know what proportion of the vote took place on a particular day or even week. </p>
<p>Even with this uncertainty, it was possible to make reasonably accurate predictions provided that the underlying assumptions are correct, such as all tweets being equally influential.</p>
<h2>Twitter isn’t the only source</h2>
<p>With <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/282087/number-of-monthly-active-twitter-users/">328 million</a> active users worldwide, and many more inactive users who nonetheless read the tweets of others, Twitter is an excellent source of information on people’s views and intentions. </p>
<p>But it is good to have multiple sources of data when doing big data analytics. </p>
<p>In diverse projects, ranging from tourist satisfaction to environmental changes, the Big Data and Smart Analytics Lab uses combinations of Twitter, Flickr, Instagram, public Facebook pages, and even the Chinese social media platform Weibo. It is all grist to the mill. </p>
<p>Facebook is by far the dominant social media channel in the world. Only public pages are accessed by our analytics. But with <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/264810/number-of-monthly-active-facebook-users-worldwide/">two billion</a> users and growing, we still have plenty of data to work with. </p>
<p>Twitter has evolved into a more news- and opinion-oriented channel, with people sharing newsworthy items with like-minded others. Celebrities and politicians use it as a direct channel to their audience, bypassing the established media channels altogether. </p>
<p>Brevity of tweets was enforced by a 140-character limit until recently, when the length restriction was <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/26/technology/twitter-280-characters.html">doubled</a> to 280 characters. The extra characters make tweets an even richer source of information for data mining.</p>
<h2>The power of social media</h2>
<p>The fact remains that people say things on social media that they would not say out loud. Many trolls and hecklers in the online world turn out to be mild-mannered individuals in the real world. It can be surprising.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-same-sex-marriage-survey-got-us-talking-about-and-trusting-data-87508">How the same-sex marriage survey got us talking about – and trusting – data</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Whose opinion is more interesting to the analyst? Is it the social persona who has responsibilities to the community and is generally polite? Or is it the private persona who only vents their true feelings to their closest confidants and on social media. </p>
<p>Both are interesting, but arguably it is the latter whose opinion determine the outcome of social issues.</p>
<p>The lesson to be learned from our error with same-sex marriage survey is that every social media post counts. Social media is indeed a powerfully democratising force.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/87599/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bela Stantic receives funding from: The National Environmental Science Programme (NESP), Gold Coast Hospital and Health Service Private Practice Trust Fund, Sustainable Built Environment - National Research Centre, Queensland Cancer Fund, Australian Institute of Sport, City of Gold Coast and Association of Marine Park Tourism Operators (AMPTO).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Tuffley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Twitter can be a useful tool in trying to predict what people think on an issue. So why did a study of almost half a million tweets on the same-sex marriage survey get it wrong?David Tuffley, Senior Lecturer in Applied Ethics and SocioTechnical Studies, School of ICT., Griffith UniversityBela Stantic, Professor, Director of Big data and smart analytics lab, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/580142016-06-07T15:34:01Z2016-06-07T15:34:01ZHere’s how radical groups like Islamic State use social media to attract recruits<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/124639/original/image-20160531-1946-1jagw7m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">from www.shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Following the deaths of several African American men at the hands of police last year, the Twitter hashtag <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23blacklivesmatter&src=typd">#blacklivesmatter</a> enabled people from around the world to discuss race relations in the US. What is less well-known is that this hashtag – among others – was also <a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/04/28/islamic-state-supporters-urge-baltimore-rioters-to-join-extremist-cause/">used by supporters of Islamic State</a>, who aimed to appeal to African Americans with the message that in IS, there “is no difference between black and white”. </p>
<p>Thanks to advancements in technology, it is now easier than ever to get involved in politics and civil society. Social media, in particular, helped to mobilise thousands of people during the uprisings on <a href="http://www.washington.edu/news/2011/09/12/new-study-quantifies-use-of-social-media-in-arab-spring/">Tahir Square in Egypt</a> and the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18070246">Indignados protests in Spain</a>.</p>
<p>But the internet is not democratic, <em>per se</em>. Radical groups also <a href="http://www.usip.org/publications/wwwterrornet-how-modern-terrorism-uses-the-internet">rely on</a> websites, <a href="http://www.firstpost.com/world/is-islamic-state-app-children-android-twitter-facebook-huroof-2778590.html">apps</a>, social network and content-sharing sites such as Facebook, the <a href="https://archive.org/index.php">Internet Archive</a>, or YouTube to recruit supporters. In 2015 alone, IS published <a href="http://www.slate.fr/story/115833/entretien-david-thomson-djihadisme-francais">1,000 videos, 15,000 photos, and 20 magazines</a> online. </p>
<p>IS is especially active on Twitter. An analysis by the <a href="http://www.brookings.edu/%7E/media/research/files/papers/2015/03/isis-twitter-census-berger-morgan/isis_twitter_census_berger_morgan.pdf">Brookings Institute</a> highlighted that “from September through December 2014 … at least 46,000 Twitter accounts were used by IS supporters”. Researchers from the George Washington University <a href="https://cchs.gwu.edu/sites/cchs.gwu.edu/files/downloads/ISIS%20in%20America%20-%20Full%20Report.pdf">further showed</a> that – of 300 American IS supporters on Twitter – only a few tweeted new, official information. More common were accounts that retweeted and endorsed messages to reach as many people as possible. The amplifiers were complemented by shout-out accounts, which post new Twitter handles that replace blocked accounts. </p>
<h2>The halo effect</h2>
<p>It is not surprising that radical groups use popular social media to recruit supporters. These services are free, and censorship is still quite difficult. Most importantly, young people tend to <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2015/mar/10/a-third-of-young-people-think-social-media-will-influence-their-vote?CMP=share_btn_tw">trust the information</a> they read or hear on social network or micro-blogging sites. The perceived trustworthiness of the platforms can affect a person’s evaluations of posts or messages from radical groups, making them seem more valid and convincing. </p>
<p>This is due to a well-established phenomenon known as the “halo effect”: when you make an overall positive judgement of a person or product, based on one specific positive characteristic. For instance, research has shown that if we think that a teacher is enthusiastic, we also <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=7V2jidPpOAsC&pg=PA241&lpg=PA241&dq=performance+appraisal,+halo+effect,+enthusiasm&source=bl&ots=T7VeimIhDi&sig=DLgjI43tbN-WtVyCyYapc_qs1_k&hl=de&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjWi8i2pI7MAhVBcQ8KHaxeCCwQ6AEISTAF#v=onepage&q=performance%2520appraisal%252C%2520halo%2520effect%252C%2520enthusiasm&f=false">believe that she or he is knowledgeable</a> – even if this is not the case. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/124644/original/image-20160531-1946-14weef9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/124644/original/image-20160531-1946-14weef9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=320&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124644/original/image-20160531-1946-14weef9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=320&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124644/original/image-20160531-1946-14weef9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=320&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124644/original/image-20160531-1946-14weef9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124644/original/image-20160531-1946-14weef9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124644/original/image-20160531-1946-14weef9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Screen grab from ISIS game play.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.ijreview.com/2015/02/244785-isis-modifies-american-video-game-recruitment-tool/">Nicholas Kurch/Independent Journal Review</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Propaganda is most effective when it is emotionally involving. That is why radical groups include well-curated multimedia in their online newsletters, magazines, and social media posts. Many groups even develop <a href="http://www.rcmp-grc.gc.ca/nsci-ecsn/rad/internet/p4b-eng.htm">multi-player games</a>, and make them available for free via online gaming platforms. The games often endorse violence and, crucially, allow users to perform an idealised version of themselves; users feel pride and a sense of community while fighting with others against enemies. </p>
<p>Over time, online experiences can influence users’ expectations about how they wish to live. If they feel that these expectations <a href="http://fletcher.tufts.edu/Fletcher-Forum/Archives/%7E/media/Fletcher/Microsites/Fletcher%20Forum/PDFs/2011winter/Brachman-Levine.pdf">are not being met</a> in their everyday life, users may reach out to radical groups (or respond to their outreach) to become part of what they see as a great cause, and an opportunity to do something worthwhile.</p>
<h2>Fighting back</h2>
<p>It is impractical and, in fact, <a href="https://counterideology2.files.wordpress.com/2013/06/options-n-strategies-for-countering-online-radicalization-in-the-us.pdf">nearly impossible</a> to disconnect radical groups from the internet. Increasing censorship on platforms that we use every day jeopardises our right to privacy, the free flow of information, and freedom of speech. Instead, counter-radicalisation programs are also using internet-based campaigns to challenge the ideologies and claims of radical groups. </p>
<p>Opinions become more extreme if we only interact with others who endorse our point of view. But this process – known as <a href="https://www.ideals.illinois.edu/bitstream/handle/2142/36051/174.pdf?sequence=4">group or attitude polarisation</a> – can be prevented. The internet is a marketplace where different ideas <a href="https://counterideology2.files.wordpress.com/2013/06/options-n-strategies-for-countering-online-radicalization-in-the-us.pdf">compete</a>. Sharing diverse perspectives on topics such as identity, religion, and violence with people who are immersed in the one-sided messages of radical groups, can prevent opinions from shifting to more extreme positions. </p>
<p>When presenting these so-called counter narratives, <a href="http://terrorismanalysts.com/pt/index.php/pot/article/view/128/html">it is important</a> to acknowledge grievances of different groups in society, while suggesting non-violent strategies to address the struggles. And those who communicate the alternative messages must be valued by potential or existing supporters of radical groups; indeed, former militants may be the most convincing.</p>
<p>The Canadian organisation <a href="http://extremedialogue.org/">Extreme Dialogue</a>, for example, produces video documentaries of former members of radical groups, their families, friends, and victims. Showing how people’s lives were dramatically affected by violent radicalisation, the project aims to stimulate critical thinking and discussions. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, in the UK, the <a href="http://www.quilliamfoundation.org">Quilliam Foundation</a> relies on social media to promote a democratic, non-radical Islam. Founder Maajid Nawaz uses Twitter and Instagram to share pluralistic ideas without degrading Islam. The work of these organisations shows that the tactics which lead individuals to join radical groups, can also be applied to counter radicalisation online.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/58014/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sandy Schumann is a post-doctoral researcher at the Oxford Centre for the Study of Intergroup Conflict (University of Oxford). She is funded by the Wiener-Anspach Foundation (Belgium). Sandy is further affiliated with New College Oxford (non-stipendiary junior research fellow) as well as the Universite Libre de Bruxelles, Center for Social and Cultural Psychology (affiliated researcher). </span></em></p>From Twitter, to Facebook, to online gaming; radical groups use a vast range of tools to recruit new followers to their causes.Sandy Schumann, Post-doctoral Researcher in Social Psychology, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/528592016-01-11T01:46:23Z2016-01-11T01:46:23ZWhat’s up with Twitter, in fewer than 10,000 characters<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/107701/original/image-20160111-8715-1hpszzg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">There's already a lot you can say on Twitter in 140 characters.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/kinetoskop/19156298395/">Flickr/Manuel Schmalstieg</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The internet erupted in outrage last week at <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-twitter-character-limit-idUSKBN0UK2HU20160106">reports</a> that Twitter is poised to increase the limit for tweets from 140 to 10,000 characters. </p>
<p>The first rumours of such a move emerged in the tech news website Re/code back in <a href="http://recode.net/2015/09/29/twitter-plans-to-go-beyond-its-140-character-limit/">September</a> then <a href="http://recode.net/2016/01/05/twitter-considering-10000-character-limit-for-tweets/">again last week</a>. The response on Twitter was immediate and, for the most part, somewhere between incensed and bemused, with many thousands of tweets posted with hashtags such as <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%2310kTwitter">#10kTwitter</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Twitter10k">#Twitter10k</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%2310000gate">#10000gate</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23140twitter">#140twitter</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23beyond140">#beyond140</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23longtweets">#longtweets</a>.</p>
<p>CEO and prodigal co-founder of Twitter, Jack Dorsey, clarified things in a proof-of-concept #longtweet of his own:</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"684496529621557248"}"></div></p>
<p>We don’t know if this is something that will definitely be rolled out for all users, or just something in the development pipeline. Crucially, we don’t know what the implementation might look like. It is possible that we’re just talking about the ability to append a chunk of extra text to a tweet (to make it readable, searchable and presumably commercially minable).</p>
<p>As we might expect, in the absence of any further confirmation, as far as I can see the frenzy has now pretty much died off.</p>
<h2>Tinkering with Twitter</h2>
<p>This might be a non-story if it weren’t for the fact that concern from a highly engaged userbase over potential or actual platform changes is such an established pattern.</p>
<p>We saw it most recently with Twitter’s change from <a href="https://blog.twitter.com/2015/hearts-on-twitter">Favorites to Hearts</a>, but it goes way, way back to the beginning. This latest controversy is only a small part of that much longer and deeper story of how Twitter has been shaped by competing ideas about what it is actually for.</p>
<p>On the surface, extending the length of tweets might seem like a good idea. The 140 character limit is definitely a significant constraint. Anyone who has tried to participate in a complex discussion or a political debate on the platform will have become frustrated by it, and they may have found themselves resorting to work-arounds such as:</p>
<ul>
<li>spreading a statement across multiple tweets (pejoratively known as a <a href="http://www.buzzfeed.com/charliewarzel/why-twitters-newest-tweetstormtm-trend-must-be-stopped#.sgdAzLw60">tweetstorm</a>)</li>
<li>writing a longer form argument elsewhere and linking to it from within the tweet</li>
<li>embedding a screenshot of a longer chunk of text (as Jack Dorsey did, above).</li>
</ul>
<p>The limit, as we know, wasn’t really put in place for aesthetic reasons. It’s just a by-product of Twitter’s origins as a short messaging service for mobile phones.</p>
<p>In fact, extending it was actually <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/oct/05/jack-dorsey-11-things-new-twitter-ceo-needs-to-improve">listed as a priority</a> when The Guardian reported on Jack’s return to the fold as CEO late last year. </p>
<p>But here’s the thing: creativity comes from constraints. Internet jargon is full of abbreviations (<a href="http://stylecaster.com/social-media-acronyms-abbreviations-what-they-mean/">LOL, FWIW, FOMO, TFW, FML</a>) invented by various user communities to get around such limitations, extending way back before Twitter to Internet Relay Chat (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_Relay_Chat">IRC</a>) and other messaging or bulletin board services.</p>
<p>It’s not just about workarounds, though. There are a host of new cultural forms and practices that have emerged out of the 140 character limit, such as the specific forms of sometimes absurdist, frequently risque but always pithy humour that characterise the burgeoning field of <a href="http://www.pastemagazine.com/articles/2016/01/the-75-best-twitter-accounts-of-2015.html">Twitter comedy</a>.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"684108347973349376"}"></div></p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"684928756662857732"}"></div></p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"684780156993409024"}"></div></p>
<p>Arguably, brevity is not only <a href="http://shakespeare.mit.edu/hamlet/hamlet.2.2.html">the soul of wit</a>, it’s at the very heart of Twitter. </p>
<h2>The Twitter culture</h2>
<p>Twitter, Inc’s search for a viable revenue model and a way to attract new users en masse has led to a series of platform changes that have sometimes seemed to the core userbase to fly in the face of Twitter’s cultures of use.</p>
<p>And the userbase has a right to complain. Crucially, it is they who created Twitter’s culture as well as some of its technologies, inventing many of the <a href="http://eprints.qut.edu.au/49824/">ad hoc innovations</a> that then got turned into platform features.</p>
<p>It was users who first addressed tweets to one another using the @ symbol, it was users who invented the <a href="https://support.twitter.com/articles/49309">#hashtag</a> and it was users who invented ways to quote tweets with attribution using the RT symbol (for <a href="https://support.twitter.com/articles/20169873">retweet</a>). Over time, these and other user innovations were taken up and hardwired into the platform’s architecture. </p>
<p>But then came the tweaks and transformations. @reply messages to people you weren’t following were hidden from view. Retweets got automated, turning the original tweets into discrete, inviolable chunks of content. This made them much easier to track, metricise and monetise, but much harder for other users to mess with, selectively quote and remix. (Interesting to note that users responded by creating the MT, or <a href="http://twitter.about.com/od/twitter-glossary/g/Whats-Mt-On-Twitter.htm">modified tweet</a>, giving them control again of the retweets.)</p>
<p>Given a spate of recent protests that Twitter <a href="http://www.theverge.com/2015/2/4/7982099/twitter-ceo-sent-memo-taking-personal-responsibility-for-the">isn’t fixing what is really broken</a> and is in danger of <a href="http://www.vox.com/2016/1/5/10719476/twitter-10000-character">breaking things that work perfectly well</a>, it’s understandable that the community is up in arms once again at the prospect of Twitter abandoning the 140 character limit – arguably the core of all the platform’s native characteristics. </p>
<p>Throughout this history runs a tension between different ideas of what Twitter should or could be for. Was it a personal, mundane and intimate social messaging app; a global nervous system for instant news, information and reactions or a new breed of mainstream media platform?</p>
<p>The tensions between these apparently opposing tendencies have made Twitter dynamic and diverse, supporting everything from <a href="https://twitter.com/davidortiz/status/451032513679749120">presidential selfies</a> to <a href="http://www.theroot.com/blogs/the_grapevine/2015/11/black_twitter_thanksgivingwithblackfamilies.html">hashtag memes</a> to on-the-ground infrastructure for <a href="https://theconversation.com/crisis-communication-saving-time-and-lives-in-disasters-through-smarter-social-media-50403">crisis communication</a>.</p>
<h2>Show me the money</h2>
<p>As Nick Bilton’s company biography <a href="http://www.wired.com/2013/11/hatching-twitter/">Hatching Twitter</a> shows, within the company, there always were and still are internal struggles between these different platform logics and the business models that might go with them. </p>
<p>While early adopters loved the mix of interpersonal communication, mundane expression and news that made Twitter unique, that unique blend has proven difficult to monetise.</p>
<p>So Twitter, Inc is experimenting with possible platform tweaks and changes that it presumably hopes will help to attract and retain new users, and deliver sufficient revenue from content and advertising partnerships. This means providing guaranteed attention for branded content, and a better ratio of what might be called signal-to-noise.</p>
<p>You can see this kind of thinking behind changes that have already been made, such as <a href="https://blog.twitter.com/2015/removing-the-140-character-limit-from-direct-messages">last August’s move</a> to expand Direct Messages to 10,000 characters, within which you can embed tweets and other content.</p>
<p>With this move, Twitter is trying to create a backchannel for <a href="http://www.theverge.com/2015/8/12/9134175/twitter-direct-message-character-limit">discussion and interpersonal communication</a>, and to remove all the noise from the public stream. Of course, this might betray an understanding of users interacting, talking and debating issues as noise, leaving only original content as the signal. This would most definitely be a media-centred, rather than a truly people-centred, model of social media. </p>
<p>Of course, <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/01/dont-fear-the-10ktwitter/423135/">as others have pointed out</a>, there might be cause for optimism as well. One possibility (as <a href="https://twitter.com/jack/status/684496529621557248">Jack’s tweet seems to indicate</a>) is that this proposed change is quite innocent. It’s just the company noticing something users are doing, and making it available to everyone, just like they did with the @reply, the #hashtag, and the RT.</p>
<p>Jack’s tweet emphasises conversation and connectedness after all. Despite this, it <a href="https://medium.com/@jeanburgess/twitter-probably-isn-t-dying-but-is-it-becoming-less-sociable-d768a9968982">remains to be seen</a> whether the changes Twitter is making over the year enhance the sociable, person-centred Twitter or actually move us toward a media-centred one.</p>
<p>If so, we might need to bid a tearful farewell to the messy and generative convergence of social networking, user hacks and content curation that gave Twitter its unique character and flavour in the first place – not to mention the brevity that is the soul of its wit.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/52859/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jean Burgess does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Much of the way people use Twitter has been determined by the users of the social media giant. So why all the upset at talk of allowing tweets beyond the current 140 character limit?Jean Burgess, Professor and Director, Digital Media Research Centre, Queensland University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/414892015-05-07T22:51:31Z2015-05-07T22:51:31ZTwitter app reveals emotions British people felt on election day<p>In 2015, elections don’t just happen at polling stations around the United Kingdom, they happen on Twitter. With the hashtag #IVoted trending (alongside <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23DogsAtPollingStations&src=tyah">#dogsatpollingstations</a>), Britons laid out their party colours along with their feelings towards their local candidates and national leaders. </p>
<p>We developed the VoteBEE app to map the mood of the nation using Twitter. It can analyse thousands of tweets a second to extract from each tweet a direct expression of one of eight basic emotions: anger, disgust, fear, happiness, sadness, surprise, shame and confusion. So on the emotional swing-o-meter what did the VoteBEE application uncover during the election day?</p>
<p>What is noticeable throughout May 7 is the volume of emotional tweets for the Tories, but then how all the emotions flatline towards the end of the day. </p>
<p>The shame factor (light green) decreased over the course of the day. The shame spike had started with singer <a href="https://charlottesayshmmm.wordpress.com/">Charlotte Church’s article</a> backing Labour on the NHS which has been a big battle ground for the major parties. After that story broke, the Tories saw very little emotional activity.</p>
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<span class="attribution"><span class="source">VoteBEE</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>Labour has had happiness, surprise and fear dominate the emotional spectrum during polling day. The happiness comes from a <a href="https://www.facebook.com/edmiliband/posts/957341924284769">post Ed Miliband wrote</a> on the campaign bus while travelling back to his Doncaster North constituency to cast his vote, outlining how proud he was to have worked with the Labour team.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80905/original/image-20150507-1219-1ys1pyx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80905/original/image-20150507-1219-1ys1pyx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80905/original/image-20150507-1219-1ys1pyx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=170&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80905/original/image-20150507-1219-1ys1pyx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=170&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80905/original/image-20150507-1219-1ys1pyx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=170&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80905/original/image-20150507-1219-1ys1pyx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=214&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80905/original/image-20150507-1219-1ys1pyx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=214&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80905/original/image-20150507-1219-1ys1pyx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=214&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80908/original/image-20150507-1212-xg2ohp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80908/original/image-20150507-1212-xg2ohp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80908/original/image-20150507-1212-xg2ohp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=37&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80908/original/image-20150507-1212-xg2ohp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=37&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80908/original/image-20150507-1212-xg2ohp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=37&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80908/original/image-20150507-1212-xg2ohp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=47&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80908/original/image-20150507-1212-xg2ohp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=47&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80908/original/image-20150507-1212-xg2ohp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=47&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">VoteBEE</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Nick Clegg’s emotional spectrum showed signs of life with big spikes of emotion throughout, until the crucial final day. It is on the last day that the electorate have started to take stock of the situation and the biggest emotion expressed is sadness: not good for Nick. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80906/original/image-20150507-1258-4d3hbz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80906/original/image-20150507-1258-4d3hbz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80906/original/image-20150507-1258-4d3hbz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=171&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80906/original/image-20150507-1258-4d3hbz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=171&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80906/original/image-20150507-1258-4d3hbz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=171&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80906/original/image-20150507-1258-4d3hbz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=215&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80906/original/image-20150507-1258-4d3hbz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=215&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80906/original/image-20150507-1258-4d3hbz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=215&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80908/original/image-20150507-1212-xg2ohp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80908/original/image-20150507-1212-xg2ohp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80908/original/image-20150507-1212-xg2ohp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=37&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80908/original/image-20150507-1212-xg2ohp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=37&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80908/original/image-20150507-1212-xg2ohp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=37&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80908/original/image-20150507-1212-xg2ohp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=47&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80908/original/image-20150507-1212-xg2ohp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=47&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80908/original/image-20150507-1212-xg2ohp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=47&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">VoteBEE</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>When we tracked emotions about the Scottish independence referendum using the similar EMOTIVE system, we found that in the final few hours before the polls closed, there were big spikes of emotion for the Yes campaign. But we all know that despite the emotion involved, Scotland voted No by a significant margin, and stayed in the UK. </p>
<p>So what did the spikes mean? They were signs of uncertainty – the voters went for what they knew, which was to stick with the United Kingdom. So the large amounts of emotion expressed for the Labour Party on election day may be bad news for Ed Miliband, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/election-2015-experts-respond-as-exit-poll-points-to-conservative-success-41414">the broadcasters’ exit poll</a> certainly points to a strong showing from the Conservatives. It may seem counter-intuitive, but when there are signs of big swings in emotions towards the end of the campaign this is likely to show a decrease in support towards the party.</p>
<p><em>VoteBEE was developed by scientists at the Centre for Information Management (Professor Tom Jackson, Dr Martin Sykora, Dr Suzanne Elayan, Dr Ann O’Brien) at Loughborough University.</em></p>
<p><em>Stay tuned for more analysis throughout the night.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/41489/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tom Jackson receives funding from Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (DSTL) and the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Martin Sykora receives funding from Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council and Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council.</span></em></p>If people are emotional about your party on Twitter, you’re probably losing the election.Tom Jackson, Professor of Information and Knowledge Management and Director of the Centre for Information Management, Loughborough UniversityMartin Sykora, Lecturer in Information Management, Loughborough UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/411162015-05-01T17:05:03Z2015-05-01T17:05:03ZTracking emotions on Twitter gives an insight into how we really feel about politicians<p>Twitter has become a public sounding board where views are broadcast, repeated or repudiated, and we can dip into this pool of public opinion in order to get a flavour of how the parties stand in the run up to the election.</p>
<p>Analysing hundreds of thousands of individual tweets is a challenge, for which we developed <a href="http://www.lboro.ac.uk/enterprise/votebee/">VoteBEE</a>, an app based on the <a href="http://emotive.lboro.ac.uk/">EMOTIVE</a> textual analysis engine that can read and track the emotional outpour on Twitter in near-real time. EMOTIVE has proven able to very accurately identify fine-grained emotions from tweets, extracting direct emotional expressions of anger, disgust, fear, happiness, sadness, surprise, shame and confusion.</p>
<p>So how, according to this emotional swing-o-meter, have the party leaders fared over the campaign and in the live television debate?</p>
<h2>David Cameron</h2>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80101/original/image-20150501-23838-5x4ez4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80101/original/image-20150501-23838-5x4ez4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80101/original/image-20150501-23838-5x4ez4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=165&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80101/original/image-20150501-23838-5x4ez4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=165&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80101/original/image-20150501-23838-5x4ez4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=165&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80101/original/image-20150501-23838-5x4ez4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=208&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80101/original/image-20150501-23838-5x4ez4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=208&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80101/original/image-20150501-23838-5x4ez4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=208&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">David Cameron’s emotional spectrum on Twitter.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jackson/VoteBEE</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The “fear factor” (dark green) represents the Tories’ aim of painting the SNP as damaging to the rest of the UK outside Scotland should they partner with Labour in the event of a hung parliament. </p>
<p>Sadness (dark blue) towards Cameron was declining, but since the BBC Question Time leaders’ debate has increased. Now the Twittersphere believes Cameron is a weak leader who is only interested in his career, <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/david-cameron-makes-another-gaffe-this-election-is-all-about-my-career-sorry-i-mean-country-10218341.html">as per his latest gaffe</a>. Sadness also points to feelings of distress in the Tories opponents should they be re-elected, especially in respect of what this will mean for Europe, the UK, and low wages.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"594115596289253376"}"></div></p>
<p>Yet there are signs of happiness for the Tory camp with many thinking Miliband performed poorly, despite Cameron not putting a good case forward – more of a case of winning by default. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"593871919360913408"}"></div></p>
<p> </p>
<h2>Ed Milliband</h2>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80102/original/image-20150501-23877-1opc6zh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80102/original/image-20150501-23877-1opc6zh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80102/original/image-20150501-23877-1opc6zh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=167&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80102/original/image-20150501-23877-1opc6zh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=167&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80102/original/image-20150501-23877-1opc6zh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=167&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80102/original/image-20150501-23877-1opc6zh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=210&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80102/original/image-20150501-23877-1opc6zh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=210&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80102/original/image-20150501-23877-1opc6zh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=210&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ed Miliband’s emotional spectrum on Twitter.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jackson/VoteBEE</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Miliband has attracted a steady wave of anger (red) throughout the campaign, especially recently after failing to pacify a very angry woman during a radio show phone in.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"592049917058818048"}"></div></p>
<p>However, in recent days there has been a lot of shame (light green) on Miliband’s emotional spectrum. Many feel he is getting a hard deal and that “it is a great shame” he’s failed to win the backing of Murdoch and his newspapers – which have come out in support of <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-suns-snp-tory-split-shows-newspaper-endorsements-arent-what-they-used-to-be-38256">Cameron in England and the SNP in Scotland</a>. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"593475519510925313"}"></div></p>
<p>Perhaps that’s why Miliband has turned to Russell Brand for support – unfortunately the Twittershpere was not impressed, and this added to the shame associated with Miliband.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"592833339125534720"}"></div></p>
<p>As with the Tories, Labour has also has a fear factor (dark green). Labour, with a <a href="https://theconversation.com/danny-alexanders-last-minute-leak-poor-form-but-good-politics-41051">little help from the Lib Dems</a>, has highlighted that the Tories will cut welfare, with child benefits likely in the firing line. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"594085362353315841"}"></div></p>
<p> </p>
<h2>Nick Clegg</h2>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80103/original/image-20150501-23890-39jhsv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80103/original/image-20150501-23890-39jhsv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80103/original/image-20150501-23890-39jhsv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=168&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80103/original/image-20150501-23890-39jhsv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=168&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80103/original/image-20150501-23890-39jhsv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=168&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80103/original/image-20150501-23890-39jhsv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=212&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80103/original/image-20150501-23890-39jhsv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=212&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80103/original/image-20150501-23890-39jhsv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=212&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nick Clegg’s emotional spectrum on Twitter.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jackson/VoteBEE</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Despite having been part of the coalition government, Clegg’s emotional spectrum is muted compared to the other leaders. Fear (dark green) featured early on in the campaign, but this fear was coming from the Tories – they needed Clegg to do well in order to renew theiri coalition. However there was also fear that Clegg would team up with anyone just to be back in power.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"591877800241569792"}"></div></p>
<p>There were peaks of happiness (yellow) and surprise (light blue) following the Question Time leaders debate. Surprise came from how Clegg handled a previous questioner: </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"593871738481602560"}"></div></p>
<p>Such sarcastic invocations of happiness may bring back warm memories for many, but I’m sure Clegg will see it as more of a nightmare. The surprise (light blue) stemmed from Clegg being declared the winner of the debate – something no one was expecting. There might still be a chance that his party will rally supporters nearer the day of the election.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"593893346994737154"}"></div></p>
<p> </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80106/original/image-20150501-23893-v72i50.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80106/original/image-20150501-23893-v72i50.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80106/original/image-20150501-23893-v72i50.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=239&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80106/original/image-20150501-23893-v72i50.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=239&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80106/original/image-20150501-23893-v72i50.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=239&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80106/original/image-20150501-23893-v72i50.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80106/original/image-20150501-23893-v72i50.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80106/original/image-20150501-23893-v72i50.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The party leaders compared.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jackson/VoteBEE</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The campaign has invoked similar ranges and scales of emotions towards the main three parties’ leaders, and we don’t have long to wait to see how well their trump cards have worked in trying secure the electorate’s vote.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/41116/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tom Jackson receives funding from Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, Defence Science and Technology Laboratory and Loughborough University. Views in the article are the author's and not those of the Research Councils.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Martin Sykora receives funding from the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council and Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council. Views in the article are the author's and not those of the Research Councils.
</span></em></p>With one week to go, how are the parties standing? According to Twitter analysis, it’s an emotional rollercoaster.Tom Jackson, Professor of Information and Knowledge Management and Director of the Centre for Information Management, Loughborough UniversityMartin Sykora, Lecturer in Information Management, Loughborough UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/346312014-12-01T20:10:00Z2014-12-01T20:10:00ZStudying society via social media is not so simple<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/65736/original/image-20141127-21951-lf2gnn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Tons of social media there for the taking… but is it truly representative of real life?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jürgen Pfeffer</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Behavioral scientists have seized on social media and their massive data sets as a way to quickly and cheaply figure out what people are thinking and doing. But some of those tweets and thumbs ups can be misleading. Researchers must figure out how to make sure their forecasts and analyses actually represent the offline world. </p>
<h2>Big Data’s overwhelming appeal</h2>
<p>Imagine you’re interested in analyzing society to learn the answers to questions like: how bad is the flu this year? How will people vote in an upcoming election? How do people talk about and cope with diabetes? You could interview people on the street or call them on their phones. That’s what traditional polling firms do – but it takes time and can be quite costly. A promising alternative involves collecting and analyzing social media data – quickly and for free.</p>
<p>Hundreds of millions of people use social media platforms like <a href="http://newsroom.fb.com/company-info/">Facebook</a> and <a href="https://about.twitter.com/company">Twitter</a> every day. Individually, they create traces of their activities when they tweet, like and friend each other. Collectively, these users have produced massive, real-time streams of data that offer minute-by-minute updates on social trends – where people are, what people are doing and what they are thinking about. For the last several years, researchers in academia and industry have been developing ways to utilize this flood of data in their investigations and have published thousands of papers drawing on it.</p>
<p>A typical Twitter study could look like the following. Imagine you’re interested in information diffusion after a tragic event. The moment you hear about such an event – for instance, the Boston Marathon bombing – you activate software on your computer that collects in real time Tweets that contain your keywords of interest – maybe Boston in this case. Since there are no Twitter archives available for researchers, you’d utilize Twitter’s data interface and collect all data that come for free. After a couple of hours or days you stop the data collection and start with the analysis.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/65737/original/image-20141127-16934-12xp0j3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/65737/original/image-20141127-16934-12xp0j3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/65737/original/image-20141127-16934-12xp0j3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/65737/original/image-20141127-16934-12xp0j3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/65737/original/image-20141127-16934-12xp0j3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/65737/original/image-20141127-16934-12xp0j3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/65737/original/image-20141127-16934-12xp0j3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/65737/original/image-20141127-16934-12xp0j3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">So much data, there for the taking….</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/peterras/15149258618/in/photolist-p5FUN7-8CBj3s-8CAgVh-8ku7v6-aQy1JM-6yNCXa-6z8prX-dGK1zs-cCyLwu-9BBi5g-eeyh3d-cCyLyE-aSKGWZ-6ADDuF-dU7Cn1-8RszNr-7kETST-7U4KnJ-6dENoE-93daad-7H6fnx-98eeX8-8BKnwi-7mrUDT-7mvLx9-7mrS54-oh7hti-jfYZRK-6tXvwF-nZULtL-oHsWUa-84Gxki-xn5e8-78y1BK-dDyZav-dyxsH5-aQt1AB-bqJgjX-6MPfLz-7e5YK6-82TGSb-9Yf1ju-dvGh9G-6h65V7-cYiDZd-81gMx7-8CBeSS-cCyLxA-7E1AHQ-7E1WjA">Peter Kirkeskov Rasmussen</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What to watch out for</h2>
<p>Not surprisingly, this effort to measure and predict human behavior from social media data is fraught with pitfalls – both obvious and very subtle. For instance, we know that different social media platforms are preferred by <a href="http://www.pewinternet.org/Reports/2013%20/Social-media-users.aspx">different demographic groups</a>. However, most social media studies don’t carefully account for the fact that Twitter is used mostly in cities or that most Pinterest users are upper middle-class and female. This oversight can introduce serious errors into predictions and measurements. </p>
<p>Many of the “individuals” that populate social media platforms are actually accounts managed by public relations companies (think Justin Bieber or Nike) or not even humans at all but automated robots. Because these accounts aren’t portraying anything that even approximates normal human behavior, studies need to remove such accounts before making predictions. However, finding robot accounts can be quite hard. </p>
<p>Another big issue is how the data are collected to be studied. Academic researchers need free – or at least very cheap – access to social media data to perform their studies. Few social media outlets provide this, with Twitter being the exception. Because social media studies tend to be often based on data that are sampled (researchers get about 1% from the free Twitter interface), it’s often the case that what’s available to researchers might not be a <a href="http://arxiv.org/abs/1306.5204">representative sample</a> of the overall social media data. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/65735/original/image-20141127-21951-1wyygg6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/65735/original/image-20141127-21951-1wyygg6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/65735/original/image-20141127-21951-1wyygg6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/65735/original/image-20141127-21951-1wyygg6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/65735/original/image-20141127-21951-1wyygg6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/65735/original/image-20141127-21951-1wyygg6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/65735/original/image-20141127-21951-1wyygg6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/65735/original/image-20141127-21951-1wyygg6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Simply collecting billions of data points isn’t enough.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/geoliv/6481563277/in/photolist-aSKGWZ-6ADDuF-dU7Cn1-8RszNr-7kETST-7U4KnJ-6dENoE-93daad-7H6fnx-98eeX8-8BKnwi-7mrUDT-7mvLx9-7mrS54-oh7hti-jfYZRK-6tXvwF-nZULtL-oHsWUa-84Gxki-xn5e8-78y1BK-dDyZav-dyxsH5-aQt1AB-bqJgjX-6MPfLz-7e5YK6-82TGSb-9Yf1ju-dvGh9G-6h65V7-cYiDZd-81gMx7-8CBeSS-cCyLxA-7E1AHQ-7E1WjA-hhwd41-8CAnKJ-8CAoBW-8Cx9hT-8Cx6Qt-8ywotc-6ADDuK-bqNiKF-8h6sWa-8Wb619-5n4FWw-6u1GFx">Geoff Livingston</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How to do it better</h2>
<p>In order to realize the immense potential of social media-based studies of human populations, research must tackle these kinds of issues head-on. In our <a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/content/346/6213/1063.summary">recent paper</a> in Science on caveats for social media researchers, we discuss the need to control for bias in all the ways it appears – through platform-specific <a href="http://www.aaai.org/ocs/index.php/ICWSM/ICWSM13/paper/viewFile/6128/6347">population makeup</a>, data collection and user sampling. This will involve improvements both in how data is collected and in how data is processed: for example, better methods for identifying non-human accounts on social media are needed.</p>
<p>Ultimately, researchers must be more aware of what is being analyzed when they work with social media data. What data are actually being collected? What systems are actually being studied? What social processes are actually being observed? Through greater awareness of and attention to these questions, the research community will be better able to realize the great promise of social media-based studies.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/34631/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jürgen Pfeffer receives funding from NSF, DOD.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Derek Ruths receives funding from SSHRC, NSERC, NSF, Public Safety Canada. He consults for Facebook.</span></em></p>Behavioral scientists have seized on social media and their massive data sets as a way to quickly and cheaply figure out what people are thinking and doing. But some of those tweets and thumbs ups can…Jürgen Pfeffer, Assistant Research Professor of Computation, Organizations and Society, Carnegie Mellon UniversityDerek Ruths, Assistant Professor of Computer Science, McGill UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/277062014-07-15T03:47:56Z2014-07-15T03:47:56ZThe World Cup that was: a look back through social media<p>On Sunday, Germany held the World Cup aloft after scoring a goal in extra time. Somewhat surprisingly, the <a href="http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/videos/highlights/match=300186474/index.html">final</a> wasn’t the most tweeted event of the 2014 tournament: that title went to Germany’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/world-cup-humiliation-gives-brazil-a-chance-to-move-on-from-football-29004">demolition of Brazil</a> in its semi-final four days earlier, which ended up being the <a href="https://twitter.com/TwitterData/status/486708145775841281/photo/1">most tweeted sporting event</a> in history.</p>
<p>Let’s take a look back at some of the bigger stories of the World Cup from social media, as well as the prominence of the event in Europe.</p>
<p>One widely reported research result from the knockout stages of the World Cup was how Twitter users reacted to the penalty shootouts. Twitter’s own research department put out a graph of the Greece v Costa Rica match, which was widely picked up <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/fifa-world-cup-2014/world-cup-news-2014/the-silence-of-twitter-during-a-penalty-shootout-20140704-zsvro.html">in the press</a>. </p>
<p>In particular, Twitter <a href="https://blog.twitter.com/2014/penalty-kicks-as-seen-through-twitter-data">noted</a> that sometimes “silence tells the story”:</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/53709/original/cw8dt5q6-1405306715.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/53709/original/cw8dt5q6-1405306715.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/53709/original/cw8dt5q6-1405306715.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53709/original/cw8dt5q6-1405306715.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53709/original/cw8dt5q6-1405306715.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53709/original/cw8dt5q6-1405306715.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53709/original/cw8dt5q6-1405306715.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53709/original/cw8dt5q6-1405306715.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A penalty shootout seen through Twitter activity.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Twitter</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Parallels can be drawn here to other events. Particularly, we looked in the past at how different forms of television spark Twitter conversation, with reality television frequently seeing peaks in discussion <a href="http://www.tvmetrics.net/cbs-bb15-broadcasts-from-14-18-august-australian-reality-tv-update/">during the show</a>. </p>
<p>This contrasts with dramas such as Sherlock, which often see their <a href="http://www.radiotimes.com/news/2014-01-13/moriartys-return-and-sherlocks-girlfriend-help-his-last-vow-break-twitter-record">peaks at the end</a>, with a similar “anticipation” window during the show itself.</p>
<h2>The US (and Australia) loves football</h2>
<p>As we <a href="https://theconversation.com/bigger-than-the-superbowl-the-world-cup-breaks-viewing-records-27709">discussed previously</a>, the World Cup has set viewing and streaming records in the United States. </p>
<p>It seems the presence of Americans in the Twitter conversation hasn’t been significantly hit by their team’s elimination. Germany v Brazil had the <a href="http://www.deadline.com/2014/07/world-cup-ratings-brazil-germany-semi-final-records/">highest viewing figures</a> of any World Cup semi-final in American television history, and was the highest ranked non-US game ever on ESPN/ESPN2.</p>
<p>A look at tweets on generic World Cup hashtags from July 10-14 show the US led the way in number of tweets. Brazil ranked second, with locals still interested through their team’s third-place playoff (and, of course, any tourists who had changed their timezone). London ranked third with finalists Argentina in fourth place:</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/53711/original/w5wn47x3-1405306977.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/53711/original/w5wn47x3-1405306977.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/53711/original/w5wn47x3-1405306977.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=251&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53711/original/w5wn47x3-1405306977.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=251&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53711/original/w5wn47x3-1405306977.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=251&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53711/original/w5wn47x3-1405306977.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=316&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53711/original/w5wn47x3-1405306977.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=316&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53711/original/w5wn47x3-1405306977.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=316&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Top timezones: tweets from July 10-14.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">QUT Social Media Research Group</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In Australia, SBS also reported <a href="http://www.itnews.com.au/Info/NotFound.aspx?aspxerrorpath=/News/389514,sbs-celebrates-world-cup-streaming-success.aspx">new streaming records</a> for its World Cup coverage across mobile and online, with users showing a large preference for “live” coverage versus on-demand. SBS’ World Cup multi-stream service (below) won many plaudits, with the only negative being that sound issues persisted throughout the final.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/53712/original/2cw23r87-1405307123.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/53712/original/2cw23r87-1405307123.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/53712/original/2cw23r87-1405307123.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53712/original/2cw23r87-1405307123.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53712/original/2cw23r87-1405307123.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53712/original/2cw23r87-1405307123.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53712/original/2cw23r87-1405307123.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53712/original/2cw23r87-1405307123.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Screenshot: SBS multi-streaming.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Comic relief</h2>
<p>As ever, beyond the discussion of the matches themselves, social media remains a hotbed for sarcasm and humour. FIFA president Sepp Blatter was a source of controversy throughout the tournament, and – sitting next to Vladamir Putin – remained a source of amusement (and marketing) in the final, as shown in this tweet by Betfair Australia:</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"488412127074336769"}"></div></p>
<p>Also prominent during the penalty shootout that decided the Netherlands v Argentina semi-final was a mistake from British commentator Peter Drury, who was featured on the television feed that went to range of countries including Australia.</p>
<p>Drury has never been one of the most popular commentators, and his mistake – being ready to proclaim the Netherlands victors in the semi-final – quickly <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/07/11/holland-argentina-peter-drury-commentary_n_5577418.html">spread</a> around the <a href="http://www.whoateallthepies.tv/fail/194854/world-cup-vine-penalty-shootout-gaffe-sees-commentator-peter-drury-blow-his-beans-far-too-early.html">internet</a>. See the Drury penalty call below: </p>
<iframe class="vine-embed" src="https://vine.co/v/MP3BX2zpWJq/embed/simple" width="100%" height="480" frameborder="0"></iframe>
<h2>The view from Europe</h2>
<p>We started this series of articles discussing the <a href="https://theconversation.com/brands-are-big-winners-in-the-first-social-media-world-cup-27707">role of brands</a> during the World Cup, and that was one of the themes in Europe as well. In many cities you were unable to move without noticing some form of localised World Cup branding, including the following example from Cyprus (which did not qualify).</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/53713/original/nkz4n5yf-1405307253.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/53713/original/nkz4n5yf-1405307253.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/53713/original/nkz4n5yf-1405307253.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53713/original/nkz4n5yf-1405307253.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53713/original/nkz4n5yf-1405307253.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53713/original/nkz4n5yf-1405307253.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53713/original/nkz4n5yf-1405307253.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53713/original/nkz4n5yf-1405307253.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">World Cup promotions in Cyprus.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Darryl Woodford </span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Noticeable across Europe, though, were extensive World Cup decorations: from bars in basically every city, through to the large screens that inundated public squares, and – in the case of Amsterdam – a sea of orange which descended upon the city and sat above nearly every pathway in the <a href="http://www.centrum.amsterdam.nl/">Centrum</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/53715/original/rj55y8gp-1405307472.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/53715/original/rj55y8gp-1405307472.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/53715/original/rj55y8gp-1405307472.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53715/original/rj55y8gp-1405307472.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53715/original/rj55y8gp-1405307472.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53715/original/rj55y8gp-1405307472.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53715/original/rj55y8gp-1405307472.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53715/original/rj55y8gp-1405307472.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Street decorations in Amsterdam.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Darryl Woodford</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>And that’s the World Cup.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/27706/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>On Sunday, Germany held the World Cup aloft after scoring a goal in extra time. Somewhat surprisingly, the final wasn’t the most tweeted event of the 2014 tournament: that title went to Germany’s demolition…Darryl Woodford, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Queensland University of TechnologyKatie Prowd, Research Assistant, Queensland University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/277092014-07-02T20:29:39Z2014-07-02T20:29:39ZBigger than the Superbowl: the World Cup breaks viewing records<p>It’s official: more people in the US are <a href="http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/news/y=2014/m=6/news=fifa-world-cuptm-group-stages-break-new-ground-in-tv-viewing-2388418.html">streaming</a> the World Cup than this year’s Superbowl, so it’s no surprise sports channel ESPN this week <a href="http://espnmediazone.com/us/press-releases/2014/06/usa-germany-espns-second-highest-rated-mens-world-cup-match-ever-record-viewership-on-watchespn/">reported</a> a 46% increase in viewership in group round games from 2010 to 2014. </p>
<p>Particularly interesting in the discussion of streaming figures is that such activity is able to be measured in “streaming minutes” or “data transferred” – much more specific metrics than traditional audience figures.</p>
<p>Accurate global TV ratings are still a way off, considering the official FIFA World Cup <a href="http://www.fifa.com/mm/document/affederation/tv/01/47/32/73/2010fifaworldcupsouthafricatvaudiencereport.pdf">2010 Audience Report</a> came out <a href="http://www.google.com/url?q=http%3A%2F%2Fespn.go.com%2Fsports%2Fsoccer%2Fnews%2F_%2Fid%2F6758280%2Fleast-1-billion-saw-part-2010-world-cup-final&sa=D&sntz=1&usg=AFQjCNHaI2oQobjZwwitOU4EBj_L6stbAQ">almost a year</a> after the tournament.</p>
<p>Twitter and ratings are undeniably connected, but the extent of the correlation often depends of the type of broadcast: whether it’s a live sporting event, soap opera finale or reality television show. </p>
<p>Indeed, a breakdown of the global tweets by timezone shows the dominance of US viewers in the Twitter conversation (including non-English hashtags):</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/52735/original/dr7zhvh4-1404197366.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/52735/original/dr7zhvh4-1404197366.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/52735/original/dr7zhvh4-1404197366.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=205&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/52735/original/dr7zhvh4-1404197366.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=205&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/52735/original/dr7zhvh4-1404197366.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=205&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/52735/original/dr7zhvh4-1404197366.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=257&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/52735/original/dr7zhvh4-1404197366.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=257&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/52735/original/dr7zhvh4-1404197366.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=257&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tweets by user timezone using the generic World Cup hashtags, June 19-26. Hawaii is separated here, as it may be over-represented due to being top of Twitter’s timezone list.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Previous work by Nielsen <a href="http://www.nielsen.com/us/en/newswire/2013/the-follow-back--understanding-the-two-way-causal-influence-betw.html">has shown</a> Sports, Reality TV and Comedy are genres where tweets have a causal relationship with viewer numbers, with Nielsen reporting that in 28% of sports programming measured, tweets had an impact on viewing numbers. </p>
<p>As we contended in <a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-brazil-twitter-as-a-tool-for-protest-and-procrastination-27708">last week’s article</a>, it’s possible viewers tweet when bored, as well as when excited, during a game. But it is also possible that those not watching the game are also tweeting about it, so any correlation between ratings and tweets, for sporting events, needs a bit more research.</p>
<h2>Match tweets</h2>
<p>The US/World Cup love story continues in the graph below with the US vs Portugal match dominating match conversation for the week, and taking the lead in our “tweets by match” table. </p>
<p><a href="http://espnmediazone.com/us/press-releases/2014/06/usa-germany-espns-second-highest-rated-mens-world-cup-match-ever-record-viewership-on-watchespn/">ESPN also found</a> that the: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>USA vs Portugal contest on Sunday, June 22 is the most-viewed soccer match across all US television networks, averaging 18,220,000 viewers.</p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/52736/original/vq4p5nn5-1404197437.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/52736/original/vq4p5nn5-1404197437.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/52736/original/vq4p5nn5-1404197437.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=312&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/52736/original/vq4p5nn5-1404197437.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=312&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/52736/original/vq4p5nn5-1404197437.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=312&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/52736/original/vq4p5nn5-1404197437.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/52736/original/vq4p5nn5-1404197437.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/52736/original/vq4p5nn5-1404197437.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Top match hashtags used in tweets, June 19-26.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The top match in this graph has roughly a third more tweets than any match in the tournament so far, with top matches in previous weeks peaking at around 263,000. </p>
<p>It’s also possible from what we have discussed above that the Brazil vs Mexico match was bumped up by the large Mexican contingency located in the US timezones, as well as the enormous Brazil following on Twitter that we’ve seen in previous weeks. </p>
<p>The most talked-about event by far at the World Cup last week was the <a href="https://theconversation.com/bites-dives-and-dirty-tackles-what-makes-a-footballer-break-the-rules-28524">Luis Suarez bite</a>. </p>
<p>The bite followed two other incidents of Suarez biting in the past, creating a storm of online conversation that can be seen in the visualisation of the most common words in tweets mentioning Suarez (note also the prominence of “Snickers”, a recurring example of brand impact on the World Cup):</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/52824/original/b3z465gr-1404266205.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/52824/original/b3z465gr-1404266205.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/52824/original/b3z465gr-1404266205.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=633&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/52824/original/b3z465gr-1404266205.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=633&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/52824/original/b3z465gr-1404266205.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=633&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/52824/original/b3z465gr-1404266205.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=796&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/52824/original/b3z465gr-1404266205.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=796&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/52824/original/b3z465gr-1404266205.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=796&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The controversy around the bite mostly relates to whether Suarez intentionally bit the other player or just fell in an unfortunate position making it look like he bit him – as some Uruguayans have argued. Again, asking the question of whether video-technology should be more widely used in the game as <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2014/06/the-beautiful-invisible-game/373292/">recently discussed</a> by Miguel Sicart.</p>
<p>Diego Maradona, the Argentinian whose <a href="http://worldsoccer.about.com/od/internationals/a/Diego-Maradonas-Hand-Of-God-Goal.htm">hand-ball goal</a> in the 1986 World Cup sparked much controversy <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/players/luis-suarez/10929713/Luis-Suarez-to-receive-heros-welcome-at-Montevideo-airport-as-Uruguay-fans-flock-to-hail-striker-after-bite-ban.html">said</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>This is football, this is incidental contact […] They have no commonsense or a fan’s sensibility. Luisito, we are with you.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>And a Reuters <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/06/25/uk-soccer-world-suarez-idUKKBN0F01YD20140625">report notes</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The referee did not spot the incident during the match, but FIFA’s rules allow the use of video or “any other evidence” to punish players retrospectively.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Indeed FIFA did punish Suarez, announcing a nine-match ban on June 26 (the second spike visible in the graph below):</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/52734/original/v4wq3dk5-1404197288.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/52734/original/v4wq3dk5-1404197288.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/52734/original/v4wq3dk5-1404197288.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/52734/original/v4wq3dk5-1404197288.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/52734/original/v4wq3dk5-1404197288.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/52734/original/v4wq3dk5-1404197288.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/52734/original/v4wq3dk5-1404197288.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/52734/original/v4wq3dk5-1404197288.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While the correlation is clear between real-time events and Twitter, the graph above quantifies just how vocal Twitter users have been around the Suarez incident, with the bite generating more than 3,500 tweets per minute at peak. </p>
<p>The lower volume for the announcement of the ban is also a signifier of the number of people watching the game(s) live and tweeting, versus those who use Twitter as a more general information source or discussion platform about the World Cup. </p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/27709/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It’s official: more people in the US are streaming the World Cup than this year’s Superbowl, so it’s no surprise sports channel ESPN this week reported a 46% increase in viewership in group round games…Darryl Woodford, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Queensland University of TechnologyKatie Prowd, Research Assistant, Queensland University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/277082014-06-25T20:26:32Z2014-06-25T20:26:32ZView from Brazil: Twitter as a tool for protest – and procrastination<p>Twitter activity this week, just like the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/world-cup-2014">World Cup</a>, has definitely not slowed since the opening match. </p>
<p>Here, we look at the shift in conversation as the tournament begins to take shape – who is excited, bored or really winning on Twitter? – but first, a taste of what’s happening on social media in Brazil.</p>
<p>The opening ceremony and first match, Brazil vs Croatia, were huge successes on television and on social media. Brazilians, of course, probably talked about nothing else that day – but in Brazil, much of what was said was politicised.</p>
<p>FIFA was massively criticised for choosing a Belgian producer over Brazilians for the opening ceremony.</p>
<blockquote><p>Francamente ! Na terra de Paulo Barros e Rosa Magalhães chamam um belga pra fazer uma bobagem de abertura destas!</p>— Leda Nagle (@Lnagle2) <a href="https://twitter.com/Lnagle2/statuses/477159686924681216">June 12, 2014</a></blockquote>
<blockquote>Translation: Honestly! In the land of Paulo Barros and Rosa Magalhães [two of the most successful Brazilian Carnival producers] they called a Belgian to do a silly opening like this!
– Leda Nagle, Brazilian journalist.</blockquote>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/51962/original/w498g48m-1403539706.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/51962/original/w498g48m-1403539706.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/51962/original/w498g48m-1403539706.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51962/original/w498g48m-1403539706.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51962/original/w498g48m-1403539706.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51962/original/w498g48m-1403539706.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51962/original/w498g48m-1403539706.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51962/original/w498g48m-1403539706.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The dedicated fans and patriots at the Columbia vs Greece match this week.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ana Vimieiro</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Another major disappointment was the disappearance on the official FIFA images of the moment that a paraplegic gave the initial kick-off using a mind-controlled exoskeleton built by the Brazilian scientist Miguel Nicolelis. </p>
<blockquote><p>O genial exoesqueleto usado pelo rapaz que daria o primeiro chute infelizmente se perdeu na transmissão da abertura. Uma pena.</p>— Fernando Meirelles (@fmei7777) <a href="https://twitter.com/fmei7777/statuses/477165765637185536">June 12, 2014</a></blockquote>
<blockquote>Translation: The exoskeleton worn by the guy that would do the kick-off unfortunately got lost in the opening broadcast. What a pity.
Source: Fernando Meirelles, Brazilian film-maker.</blockquote>
<blockquote><p>E teve exoesqueleto mesmo. Lamentável o desprezo total da transmissão ao que deveria ter o principal destaque. <a href="http://t.co/PqDN9MUSEI">pic.twitter.com/PqDN9MUSEI</a></p>— Impedimento (@impedimento) <a href="https://twitter.com/impedimento/statuses/477161820097355777">June 12, 2014</a></blockquote>
<blockquote>Translation: And there was the exoskeleton indeed. Regrettable the complete disdain in the broadcast to something that should be in the spotlight.
Source: Impedimento, popular website dedicated to South American football and culture.</blockquote>
<p>Still, others strongly criticised the crowd chants attacking the Brazilian president. </p>
<blockquote><p>Parte do estádio grita: “Ê Dilma, vai tomar no c.. ”. Outros gritam: “Ê Fifa, vai tomar no c…”</p>— Jamil Chade (@JamilChade) <a href="https://twitter.com/JamilChade/statuses/477167361494372352">June 12, 2014</a></blockquote>
<blockquote>Translation: Part of the stadium shouts: hey, Dilma, f* off. Others shout: hey, Fifa, f* off.
Source: Jamil Chade, Brazilian journalist.</blockquote>
<h2>Updating the top matches</h2>
<p>In our <a href="https://theconversation.com/brands-are-big-winners-in-the-first-social-media-world-cup-27707">last article</a>, we noted that Brazil vs Croatia was the most talked about match on its official hashtag (<a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23BRAvsCRO&src=typd">#BRAvsCRO</a>), some distance ahead of England vs Italy, which was closely followed by Germany vs Portugal, Spain vs the Netherlands and Argentina vs Bosnia and Herzegovina. The updated chart, through the matches of June 21, looks as follows:</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/51960/original/6ysrdccs-1403538617.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/51960/original/6ysrdccs-1403538617.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/51960/original/6ysrdccs-1403538617.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51960/original/6ysrdccs-1403538617.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51960/original/6ysrdccs-1403538617.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51960/original/6ysrdccs-1403538617.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51960/original/6ysrdccs-1403538617.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51960/original/6ysrdccs-1403538617.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Top matches: including games to June 21.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Social Media Research Group</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Of particular note here is that we have a new leader, in the Brazil vs Mexico match (an otherwise unspectacular 0-0 draw), with the Argentina vs Iran fixture (a 1-0 Argentina win, which Iran looked like winning at times) in second place. </p>
<p>The prominence of these two matches raises questions of whether people look to Twitter to fill in boring games, as well as to comment on exciting ones. The next three are familiar fixtures from the first week of matches. </p>
<p>Many of those at the bottom are the result of people using reversed hashtags in their tweets. Noticing this for the England vs Uruguay fixture, we also tracked the reverse hashtag specifically (<a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23ENGvsURU&src=typd">#ENGvsURU</a>), and recorded in excess of 27,000 tweets compared to 88,236 on the official hashtag (<a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23URUvsENG&src=typd">#URUvsENG</a>). </p>
<p>So, while the official hashtags are performing as some form of marker, their success is not universal. One explanation for this is that while in Europe, the standard form is “Home Team vs Away Team”, for Americans the familiar format is “Away Team vs Home Team”, and so ordering hashtags for international audiences can be difficult.</p>
<h2>What’s being shared?</h2>
<p>Last time, we discussed how brands were dominating the conversation on official World Cup hashtags. This time, we’ll take a look at what is being shared on the match hashtags themselves.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/51963/original/7pr48w7f-1403539990.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/51963/original/7pr48w7f-1403539990.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/51963/original/7pr48w7f-1403539990.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51963/original/7pr48w7f-1403539990.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51963/original/7pr48w7f-1403539990.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51963/original/7pr48w7f-1403539990.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51963/original/7pr48w7f-1403539990.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51963/original/7pr48w7f-1403539990.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Top retweets: including matches to June 21.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Social Media Research Group</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As with <a href="https://theconversation.com/brands-are-big-winners-in-the-first-social-media-world-cup-27707">last week’s data</a>, we again see <a href="https://twitter.com/worldsoccershop">@worldsoccershop</a> heavily represented, with their offer to give away free shirts if you retweet and a specific event happens (such as Ronaldo scoring in the Germany vs Portugal match) drawing a massive response. </p>
<p>Tellingly, the other tweets are largely dominated by US related content, the top two being ESPN responses (<a href="https://twitter.com/Sportscenter">@Sportscenter</a> being an ESPN-operated account) to the US’s victory over Ghana. </p>
<p>The first non-US tweet comes from the UK’s Sky Sports, and their <a href="https://twitter.com/SkyFootball">@SkyFootball</a> account, asking for responses on a penalty in the Brazil Game. Sky, interestingly, are not broadcasting the World Cup in the UK. </p>
<p>Other notables in the top 20 include celebrities such as Piers Morgan and Kobe Bryant, the US’s Comedy Channel (also not a World Cup broadcaster), asking Americans to “RT if you think WE WILL WIN”, and a quote from an unofficial Simpsons Quote Of The Day account, but really, @worldsoccershop was the huge winner.</p>
<h2>The limitations of the 1%</h2>
<p>As we discussed <a href="https://theconversation.com/brands-are-big-winners-in-the-first-social-media-world-cup-27707">last time</a>, the representativeness of Twitter research by those not subscribing to data providers such as GNIP is unclear with the World Cup, as Twitter traffic continually exceeds 1% of the total amount of tweets published at any particular time. </p>
<p>The flip-side of that limitation is we are able to graph the times at which conversation around the World Cup; through the team accounts, tournament hashtags, match hashtags and television hashtags we are tracking, exceeds that 1%, and by how far. </p>
<p>Of course, at any particular time, there are also many tweets relating to the World Cup which do not contain any of the previously mentioned identifiers:</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/51959/original/7c6vtzpq-1403538550.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/51959/original/7c6vtzpq-1403538550.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/51959/original/7c6vtzpq-1403538550.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51959/original/7c6vtzpq-1403538550.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51959/original/7c6vtzpq-1403538550.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51959/original/7c6vtzpq-1403538550.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=589&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51959/original/7c6vtzpq-1403538550.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=589&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51959/original/7c6vtzpq-1403538550.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=589&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Total tweets published above the 1% threshold per second; June 13-22.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">QUT Social Media Research Group</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The blue indicators in the graph above are the number of total tweets per second that exceeded 1% of total Twitter traffic. </p>
<p>Notable is that the World Cup is generating a smaller portion of the total Twitter traffic as it continues – which may not be much of a surprise – but also that while the opener generated the most prolonged period of >1% traffic, the matches on the morning of June 14 AEST (the matches of June 13 in Brazil) were the most prolific of the tournament on a per-second basis, with a particular peak during Spain’s demolition by the Netherlands.</p>
<p>It has yet to be seen how the next phase of the tournament will play out, and least of all what role Twitter will play; whether as a tool for excitement or boredom. </p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/27708/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Twitter activity this week, just like the World Cup, has definitely not slowed since the opening match. Here, we look at the shift in conversation as the tournament begins to take shape – who is excited…Darryl Woodford, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Queensland University of TechnologyAna Carolina Vimieiro, PhD Candidate, Queensland University of TechnologyKatie Prowd, Research Assistant, Queensland University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/277072014-06-19T04:12:55Z2014-06-19T04:12:55ZBrands are big winners in the ‘first social media World Cup’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/51609/original/28wcrt9j-1403147051.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Coca Cola is a major sponsor of the World Cup, but non-sponsors are capitalising on the tournament too.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/daniandgeorge/14289299264">George/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The 2014 <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/world-cup-2014">World Cup</a> has already seen a significant volume of Twitter conversation across a number of (English language) keywords, including <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23joinin&src=typd">#joinin</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23WorldCup&src=tyah">#worldcup</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Brazil2014&src=tyah">#Brazil2014</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23worldcup2014&src=typd">#worldcup2014</a>, as well as the Twitter-marketed international hashtags: </p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Brasil2014&src=typd">#Brasil2014</a> (Spanish)</li>
<li><a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Br%C3%A9sil2014&src=typd">#Brésil2014</a> (French)</li>
<li><a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23wm2014&src=typd">#wm2014</a> (German)</li>
<li><a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Copa2014&src=typd">#Copa2014</a> (Portugese) </li>
<li><a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23mm2014&src=typd">#mm2014</a> (Finnish). </li>
</ul>
<p>And unsurprisingly, riding this wave of hashtags are the brands that look to profit from the tournament – whether they’re official sponsors or not.</p>
<p>With the launch of a new interface designed to promote World Cup discussion, Twitter is actively encouraging users to flag support for their national team and to participate in World Cup discussion through Twitter.</p>
<p>On the opening day of the games Twitter presented a new layout, as well as a step-by-step process encouraging people to tweet their support for their team and change their profile image: </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/51356/original/4sfrgrh3-1403001413.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/51356/original/4sfrgrh3-1403001413.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51356/original/4sfrgrh3-1403001413.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51356/original/4sfrgrh3-1403001413.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51356/original/4sfrgrh3-1403001413.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51356/original/4sfrgrh3-1403001413.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51356/original/4sfrgrh3-1403001413.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Users are presented with a new interface.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>After clicking “Let’s go!” on the page above, users are escorted through a number of personalised set up pages; from selecting their national team and changing their profile picture:</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/51355/original/3t7zypcj-1403001394.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/51355/original/3t7zypcj-1403001394.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=568&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51355/original/3t7zypcj-1403001394.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=568&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51355/original/3t7zypcj-1403001394.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=568&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51355/original/3t7zypcj-1403001394.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=713&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51355/original/3t7zypcj-1403001394.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=713&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51355/original/3t7zypcj-1403001394.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=713&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">After selecting your team, you are invited to change your profile.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>… through to following favourite players, and even preparing a tweet using the #WorldCup hashtag and the account of your national team:</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/51354/original/r27xc2mq-1403001393.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/51354/original/r27xc2mq-1403001393.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=262&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51354/original/r27xc2mq-1403001393.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=262&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51354/original/r27xc2mq-1403001393.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=262&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51354/original/r27xc2mq-1403001393.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51354/original/r27xc2mq-1403001393.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51354/original/r27xc2mq-1403001393.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Players of the national team selected are suggested.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/51353/original/9gvkkpwx-1403001387.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/51353/original/9gvkkpwx-1403001387.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=220&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51353/original/9gvkkpwx-1403001387.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=220&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51353/original/9gvkkpwx-1403001387.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=220&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51353/original/9gvkkpwx-1403001387.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=277&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51353/original/9gvkkpwx-1403001387.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=277&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51353/original/9gvkkpwx-1403001387.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=277&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A pre-formatted tweet.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While these are obvious promotional tools, they have likely contributed to the <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/jefffick/2014/06/12/brazils-neymar-adds-300k-new-twitter-followers-after-dominating-world-cup-opener/">increase in followers</a> for many players, as well as the Twitter activity around the <a href="http://variety.com/2014/digital/news/world-cup-2014-is-already-bigger-on-facebook-twitter-than-oscars-1201220010/">tournament in general</a>. </p>
<p>While the BBC’s <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/27778386">Gary Lineker</a> on Tuesday described Brazil 2014 on air as “the first social media world cup”, South Africa 2010 also saw <a href="http://www.scribd.com/doc/124530948/World-Cup-Research-Search-And-Social-Media-During-The-World-Cup">plenty of social media activity</a>. However the impact of social media on traditional media coverage is <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/jun/15/phil-neville-commentary-world-cup-bbc-twitter-england-italy">particularly prominent in the UK</a> at the moment. </p>
<p>Twitter has also been documenting the tournament through its <a href="https://blog.twitter.com">blog</a> and tweets from the <a href="https://twitter.com/TwitterData">TwitterData</a> account. For researchers, replicating such analysis is difficult as World Cup-related tweets frequently exceed the limit of 1% of tweets that be freely accessed through the Twitter API. Despite this, there are a few notable stories from week one.</p>
<h2>Brands seek to capitalise on World Cup audience</h2>
<p>While it’s clear that the World Cup is a brand marketing exercise, the lead up to the tournament demonstrated how the brand is being appropriated for marketing purposes on social media, far beyond the official sponsors. </p>
<p>And while using the World Cup brand in traditional media may see offending companies <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/the-law-page/canadian-olympic-committee-threatens-to-sue-north-face-for-trademark-infringement/article16439709/">hit with a lawsuit</a>, using the social media hashtag appears to be a risk worth taking.</p>
<p>FIFA have not taken trademark infringement lightly either, officially <a href="http://www.marketingmagazine.co.uk/article/1284242/fifa-issues-world-cup-warning-free-riding-brands">releasing a warning</a> in March stating that</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The contribution of FIFA’s commercial affiliates is vital to the success of the 2014 FIFA World Cup and we therefore ask companies to refrain from attempts to free-ride on the huge public interest generated by the event.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Yet according to <a href="http://www.prweek.com/article/1297965/20th-world-cup-social-media-strategies-brand-war-rooms">Alex Benady</a> from PR Week:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>FIFA, players, the media, the FA and other national associations, and of course brands with no contractual relationship with the World Cup, will all be working their social media networks for all they are worth.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Supporting this, the 20th most popular retweet in the week leading up to the World Cup using English keywords was the following from (unaffiliated) British company Fragrance Direct:</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/51359/original/hyjc5rwb-1403001574.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/51359/original/hyjc5rwb-1403001574.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=632&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51359/original/hyjc5rwb-1403001574.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=632&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51359/original/hyjc5rwb-1403001574.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=632&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51359/original/hyjc5rwb-1403001574.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=794&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51359/original/hyjc5rwb-1403001574.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=794&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51359/original/hyjc5rwb-1403001574.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=794&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Screenshot: Twitter.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Other brands, sponsors and otherwise are also heavily represented in the most frequent retweets:</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/51351/original/vfw9nfvn-1403001340.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/51351/original/vfw9nfvn-1403001340.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51351/original/vfw9nfvn-1403001340.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51351/original/vfw9nfvn-1403001340.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51351/original/vfw9nfvn-1403001340.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=612&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51351/original/vfw9nfvn-1403001340.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=612&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51351/original/vfw9nfvn-1403001340.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=612&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Top total retweets containing generic World Cup hashtags (brands in green): June 5-12.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The top 25 tweets above contain many brands (including FIFA sponsors such as Adidas, Budweiser and EA Sports, as well as non-sponsors such as Goldman Sachs and Fragrance Direct), able to associate with the World Cup brand on social media on an equal basis. </p>
<p>While the brands may see this as merely interacting with a current event, for those at FIFA and for paying sponsors, this may well appear as <a href="https://theconversation.com/models-messi-and-wacky-races-the-art-of-ambush-marketing-22622">ambush marketing</a>. </p>
<p>Such trends extended into the first week of the tournament, with the top retweets over the first week notably also dominated by big brands and television networks:</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/51349/original/87zw8n5r-1403001266.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/51349/original/87zw8n5r-1403001266.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51349/original/87zw8n5r-1403001266.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51349/original/87zw8n5r-1403001266.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51349/original/87zw8n5r-1403001266.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51349/original/87zw8n5r-1403001266.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51349/original/87zw8n5r-1403001266.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Brands represented in top total retweets containing match hashtags: June 12-16.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">QUT Social Media Research Group</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Top 10 matches</h2>
<p>With the first round underway, we can also see which matches (and teams) are receiving the most attention on Twitter:</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/51350/original/rc6hj5hy-1403001335.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/51350/original/rc6hj5hy-1403001335.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=166&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51350/original/rc6hj5hy-1403001335.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=166&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51350/original/rc6hj5hy-1403001335.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=166&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51350/original/rc6hj5hy-1403001335.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=209&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51350/original/rc6hj5hy-1403001335.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=209&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51350/original/rc6hj5hy-1403001335.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=209&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Top 10 most mentioned match hashtags during Round 1 (excludes games of June 16).</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This tells an interesting visual story of not only the top matches but also how the worldwide audience is using Twitter during the World Cup. </p>
<p>While the top match to date is (perhaps predictably) the opener of the tournament – Brazil vs Croatia – the presence of England vs Italy as the second may speak both to the audience participating in the hashtag conversation and the international interest in the game itself. </p>
<p>As the tournament continues, it will be interesting to correlate tweet volume with television audiences worldwide, as those figures become available, and to consider whether the teams with the most historic World Cup success, or FIFA Ranking, are those receiving the most attention this time around, both on Twitter and on television.</p>
<h2>Other stories from around the web</h2>
<p>Elsewhere on the web, analysis of both social media and statistical data around the world cup is gathering steam. Kimono Labs have launched what they claim to be the <a href="http://www.kimonolabs.com/worldcup/docs?utm_source=Kimono%2BUsers&utm_campaign=73371575dc-3rd_mailing&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_05012cd17a-73371575dc-168141773">first open World Cup API</a>, while the Regressing Blog on Deadspin features a round-up of the <a href="http://regressing.deadspin.com/heres-what-the-top-prediction-models-say-about-the-worl-1589841233">top prediction models</a> on the web. </p>
<p>Also of interest this week is the <a href="http://cartodb.com/v/worldcup/brazil-croatia/#/1/-43/49/0">CartoDB visualisation</a> of Twitter activity around the World Cup opening match, and Twitter’s own visualisation of the increase in Neymar’s followers, part of their <a href="https://blog.twitter.com/2014/bravscro-7-worldcup-twitterdata-points-you-need-to-know">extensive coverage of the opener</a> which also includes the <a href="https://twitter.com/Predictaroo">Predictaroo</a>.</p>
<p>We’ll be back after Round 2 with some more from the ground in Europe and Brazil, as well as the latest data from our Twitter Machines, and a look at how TV stations are using Twitter in the early stages.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/27707/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The 2014 World Cup has already seen a significant volume of Twitter conversation across a number of (English language) keywords, including #joinin, #worldcup, #Brazil2014 and #worldcup2014, as well as…Darryl Woodford, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Queensland University of TechnologyKatie Prowd, Research Assistant, Queensland University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/222622014-01-21T14:41:23Z2014-01-21T14:41:23ZWhen Twitter storms cause financial panic<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/39566/original/vp5bjy7q-1390310077.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Can I interest you in the Acme Corporation? I'm hearing great things.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Rafael Matsunaga</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>On the morning of 22 January 2013 a story started to develop on Twitter about the imminent and unexpected resignation of Jens Weidmann, the CEO of Deutsche Bundesbank.</p>
<p>The first documented tweet came at 10.02am and was <a href="http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/geruecht-um-weidmann-ruecktritt-koennte-marktmanipulation-sein-a-879023.html">traced back</a> to an anonymous blog profile called “Russian Market”, which currently has just over 23,000 followers.</p>
<p>In 25 minutes the information had been exposed 256,634 times and by 10.20am the euro had fallen from 1,3340 to 1,3267 against the US dollar, <a href="http://m.business.dk/?article=24841551-Sociale--boersdesperadoer-spreder--panik">dropping 0.55% in value</a>. Decimal movements like these may seem insignificant but given the heavy gearing of the international currency markets, vast amounts of money can be made on micro movements if you can control the fluctuations and have this information prior to all other investors.</p>
<p>The rumour was not only tweeted and re-tweeted by wild market desperados and self-appointed experts but also by more established parties in the business. Stock traders at banks and finance editors at established newspapers ran with it too.</p>
<p>When a spokesman from the Deutsche Bundesbank issued an official denial of the rumour, which hit Twitter at 10:20am via the Dow Jones/Wall Street Journal, it was with the rather strong wording “<a href="http://finansakrobat.com/blog2/2013/1/22/the-weidmann-rumor">komplette blödsinn</a>”, meaning “utter garbage”. In just seven minutes, the official denial of Weidmann’s resignation had been shared 344,863 times on Twitter and in the meantime the euro had pretty much re-stabilised to the same value it had before the rumour mill went into overdrive.</p>
<p>The Weidmann case is not isolated. Social media platforms have more than once been used as vehicles for spreading junk evidence that has excited the markets in unfortunate ways.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/39550/original/65kx39d5-1390304174.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/39550/original/65kx39d5-1390304174.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/39550/original/65kx39d5-1390304174.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/39550/original/65kx39d5-1390304174.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/39550/original/65kx39d5-1390304174.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/39550/original/65kx39d5-1390304174.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/39550/original/65kx39d5-1390304174.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/39550/original/65kx39d5-1390304174.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The AP hoax Tweet that caused a financial wobble.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Twitter</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>On 23 April 2013 a “hoax tweet” was sent from the Associated Press, which appeared to have had its account hacked. The tweet read: “Breaking: Two Explosions in the White House and Barack Obama is Injured” and caused widespread panic in the financial sector. The US stock market crashed within minutes and the CBOE Volatility Index, also known as “the fear index” because it predicts potential volatility in the market surged 10%.</p>
<p>During this storm, the S&P 500, the NASDAQ and crude oil all dropped 1% and the broader market apparently <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/04/23/hack-attack-on-associated-press-shows-vulnerable-media/2106985/">lost almost US$200 billion</a>.</p>
<h2>Noise traders</h2>
<p>It seems that incorrect information, rumours, hoaxes and hearsays will inevitably bamboozle financial markets from time to time. The consequences appear frightening but some argue this sort of noise is actually necessary for trading.</p>
<p>The American economist and former president of the American Finance Association, Fisher Black has argued that some traders, known as noise traders, act on mistaken or incorrect information and feel overly confident that this information gives them an edge but that this is in fact a false sense of security. Even more alarmingly, Black <a href="http://www.e-m-h.org/Blac86.pdf">suggests</a> that noise trading is in fact essential to the existence of liquid markets and that noise from these traders makes financial markets imperfect, which in fact makes them possible.</p>
<p>If markets were efficient in the sense that everybody has access to, and can act on, correct information, there would be no such thing as profitable trading, so trading would stop.</p>
<p>If traders won’t trade, the market will no longer be liquid. That would be the end of it. There would be no information in stock prices and the scarce capital of society would be be misallocated. Markets must suffer from imperfection and for that to happen, some traders need to be less well-informed than others. Some act on information and others act only on noise. And so the market keeps moving.</p>
<p>In a world in which businesses rely so much on algorithms to automate their processes, noise can infiltrate the retail sector too. The results can be more amusing than alarming, such as when a book about moths ended up being listed on Amazon at a price of more than <a href="http://www.michaeleisen.org/blog/?p=358">US$23 million</a>. Behind this absurd tale was the use of automatic price-setting algorithms by two retailers – Bordeebook and Profnath. Each had set their prices according to what the other was doing. Bordeebook’s algorithm would set the price at 0.9983 of whatever Profnath was charging and the latter was setting its own price at 1.270589 more than its rival. This automatisation of price adjustment led to the gradual increase in price that ultimately resulted in the absurd valuation of the book.</p>
<h2>Noise makers</h2>
<p>If noise traders are needed to make financial markets function, perhaps noisemakers are just as necessary for the functioning of the blogosphere. Black seemed to anticipate this when he wrote in 1985: “I suspect that if it were possible to observe the value of human capital, we would find it fluctuating in much the same way that the level of the stock market fluctuates.”</p>
<p>Over in finance, the smart money drives out the dumb money. Sophisticated traders, have adequate information and rational expectations. They can correctly balance asset price against its fundamental value. They will win out over noise traders, who make bad decisions based on informational misconceptions and false beliefs about a risky asset’s price and the underlying financial instrument’s fundamental value.</p>
<p>Noise makers or trolls in the blogosphere and on social networks may fuel the fire of heated debate and <a href="http://news.cnet.com/8301-17938_105-57604700-1/when-internet-trolls-attack-a-view-from-the-receiving-end/">facilitate exchanges of opinions</a>. </p>
<p>Bubbles of opinions, or conviction peaks, may grow accordingly for or against a certain company, person, position, policy or viewpoint without necessarily reflecting real personal preference or even the facts. False information can spread online and can have serious consequences, as was seen in the high-profile case of <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/05/24/lord-mcalpine-sally-bercow-twitter_n_3330483.html">Robin McAlpine</a> in the UK.</p>
<p>But if it becomes clear that the aligned convictions of Twitter users or bloggers are based on noise and <a href="http://theconversation.com/all-those-likes-and-upvotes-are-bad-news-for-democracy-21547">social proof</a> rather than correct information and convincing arguments, then the bubble that has been created may quickly deflate. If no new evidence emerges to fan the fire, the <a href="http://theconversation.com/from-the-art-world-to-fashion-to-twitter-were-all-living-in-bubbles-21812">Twitter storm dies out</a>. </p>
<p>If the rumours are based on correct information, they are more likely to endure. As we become more accustomed to using new media, we, like the well-informed stock broker, should be able to learn how to separate the wheat from the chaff, the bad information from the good.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/22262/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Vincent F Hendricks does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>On the morning of 22 January 2013 a story started to develop on Twitter about the imminent and unexpected resignation of Jens Weidmann, the CEO of Deutsche Bundesbank. The first documented tweet came at…Vincent F Hendricks, Professor of Formal Philosophy, University of CopenhagenLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/177342013-09-11T20:38:29Z2013-09-11T20:38:29ZHow twitter informs the stock market<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/30850/original/qgz3tx4b-1378433960.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Research suggests Twitter trends can accurately forecast stock market changes</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">www.shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>On April 23, the US stock market suddenly lost 1.5% of its value after news of an attack on the White House quickly spread from the (hacked) Twitter account of the Associated Press news agency. Within a matter of minutes the fake news report was debunked and the market recovered from this “flash crash”. But whether the hack was perpetrated by the Syrian Electronic Army or by shrewd traders looking to make a quick profit, what emerges from this incident is how important social media has become for investors.</p>
<p>Gone are the days when information would spread from news agencies to television and newspapers, and from there to the public. The pyramid of access is now much flatter, with every (connected) soul on the planet able to access a wealth of information through social media. The key question to ask is whether all this access is actually useful. Is it possible to extract golden nuggets of financial wisdom from this deluge of news, opinions and investment tips?</p>
<p>Recent academic research seems to say yes. A number of authors have suggested that social media feeds can be used to successfully forecast equity returns. The idea is not to sift through the mass of views and tips looking for the “best expert”, but to aggregate all the available information into a comprehensive measurement that reflects how the market feels about a particular company.</p>
<p>Modern technology allows us to download, in real time, a vast amount of data in machine-readable format and to then analyse the semantic content of the text. Every tweet or post mentioning a stock can be read and categorised as “positive” or “negative” based on the words it contains. Investors look for stocks that are “trending”, with a high number of mentions, and with an overwhelming proportion of positive versus negative words.</p>
<p>Researchers at Purdue University <a href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1807265">have shown that</a> it is possible to extract useful information from user-generated investment opinions on <a href="http://seekingalpha.com/">Seeking Alpha</a>, one of the biggest investment-related social media websites in the United States. They have shown that the proportion of words with negative meaning accurately predicts the future return of the stocks in question. <a href="http://ssrn.com/abstract=170285">Similar results have been obtained using Twitter feeds</a> and even aggregating in real time a variety of <a href="https://www.recordedfuture.com/assets/SignalProcessing20111118.pdf">social and traditional media</a>.</p>
<p>None of these studies proves that the profitability of these investment strategies can withstand significant transaction costs, but the results are still interesting. While there is overwhelming evidence that individual investors, on average, <a href="http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/odean/Papers%20current%20versions/JustHowMuchDoIndividualInvestorsLose_RFS_2009.pdf">are unable to trade successfully</a>, the aggregation of all of their opinions leads to a somewhat profitable trading strategy.</p>
<p>One possible explanation is that we are looking at the information-age equivalent of the traditional “wisdom of the crowds” phenomenon observed by British statistician Francis Galton. At a 1906 country fair in Plymouth, 800 people took part in a contest to estimate the weight of an ox. While the individual guesses where all over the place, the median estimate was remarkably accurate. Individual biases cancel out when there are a large number of independent guesses and the aggregate estimate becomes more accurate.</p>
<p>It may be appealing to liken the stock market to a big fat ox, but is this really what is going on here? A cornerstone of the “wisdom of the crowds” phenomenon is that individual estimates have to be “independent”. Only then can we expect individual errors to compensate for one another.</p>
<p>The Associated Press incident shows that social media does not promote independence – a single tweet by an influential source can be retweeted, liked and cross-posted thousands of times, snowballing into an avalanche of correlated comments.</p>
<p>An alternative explanation of this new phenomena is that the social media “mood” is forecasting not the correct value of a stock but the short-term trading intentions of the market. Algorithmic traders can use this information to “front-run” other investors by taking up positions in trending stocks.</p>
<p>The difference between these two explanations is not academic. In the first case social media would allow a quicker diffusion of valuable information and improve market efficiency. In the second case it would simply generate herding behaviour among investors and increase market volatility.</p>
<p>The jury is still out. But what is certain is that social media will become more and more relevant for sophisticated algorithmic traders and will increase their ability to front-run the very same market participants who kindly volunteered their trading intentions in their first tweet of the morning.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/17734/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marco Navone does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>On April 23, the US stock market suddenly lost 1.5% of its value after news of an attack on the White House quickly spread from the (hacked) Twitter account of the Associated Press news agency. Within…Marco Navone, Senior Lecturer in Finance, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.