tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/ufos-129746/articlesUFOs – The Conversation2023-12-06T15:53:37Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2186582023-12-06T15:53:37Z2023-12-06T15:53:37ZUFOs: how astronomers are searching the sky for alien probes near Earth<p>There has been increased interest in unidentified flying objects (UFOs) ever since the Pentagon’s <a href="https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Prelimary-Assessment-UAP-20210625.pdf">2021 report</a> revealed what appears to be anomalous objects in US airspace, dubbed unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP). Fast forward to 2023, and Nasa <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/update-nasa-shares-uap-independent-study-report-names-director/">has already formed a panel</a> to investigate the reports and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/14/science/nasa-ufo-uap-report.html">appointed a director </a> for UAP research. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.aaro.mil/">newly founded Pentagon desk</a> has also released <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9746110/metallic-flying-orbs-nasa-pentagon-panel-ufos-uaps/">footage of mysterious metallic orbs</a>. What is perhaps most remarkable is that David Grusch, a former intelligence officer, testified under oath before the US Congress, stating that he had interviewed around 40 people involved <a href="https://thedebrief.org/intelligence-officials-say-u-s-has-retrieved-non-human-craft/">in secret programmes dealing with crashed UFOs</a>.</p>
<p>I am interested in searching the sky for alien, physical objects which may one day tell us whether we are alone in the galaxy. Consider this: within our own Milky Way galaxy, there are 40 billion Earth-sized, potentially habitable planets. </p>
<p>Human ingenuity has enabled us to engineer and launch probes like Voyager and Pioneer, capable of reaching the closest stars. We’ve initiated efforts such as the <a href="https://breakthroughinitiatives.org/initiative/3">Breakthrough Starshot programme</a> which aims to reach nearby star Alpha Centauri in just a few decades by exploring innovative propulsion methods. <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature02884">Sending a probe may be more economical</a> than sending out radio or laser communication if there is no need to hurry.</p>
<p>If humans can send a probe to another star, why couldn’t another civilisation send a probe to our Solar System? Such a probe could make it to the <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1808.07024">main asteroid belt</a> and <a href="https://earthsky.org/space/alien-lurker-probes-co-orbital-asteroids-earth/">lurk on an asteroid</a>. </p>
<p>Or, it could make its way to the Earth, entering our atmosphere. If observed, it would be branded as a “UFO”. A civilisation capable of producing and sending probes could dispatch millions of them on exploratory missions throughout our galaxy.</p>
<p>Some may argue that such probes could only exist if they adhere to the laws of physics and engineering as we understand them today. However, humanity is a relatively young civilisation, and our knowledge is constantly evolving. </p>
<p>While humans have dreamt of flying for millennia as we gazed at the skies, it has only been 120 years since the Wright brothers achieved the first powered flight. That’s about as long ago as Albert Einstein published his theory of special relativity.</p>
<p>Is it really so difficult to imagine that a civilisation that is hundreds of thousands years older than ours might have learned more about the laws of physics or developed <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7514271/">a few more engineering tricks</a>?</p>
<p>If a civilisation <a href="https://theconversation.com/seti-why-extraterrestrial-intelligence-is-more-likely-to-be-artificial-than-biological-169966">were to evolve into artificial intelligence (AI)</a>, it might survive for millions of years. This could mean it would casually regard slow to a neighbouring star as nothing more than a leisurely stroll.</p>
<p>That said, few astronomers felt impressed by the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rO_M0hLlJ-Q">US Navy videos</a> or government reports. We need significantly better evidence and data than what has been presented so far.</p>
<h2>Unveiling UFOs</h2>
<p>How can we test whether there are extra terrestrial probes near Earth, and whether they can be tied to the possible UFO phenomenon? There are many options. Analysing materials from potentially crashed UFOs could give irrefutable proof. This <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0376042121000907?fr=RR-2&ref=pdf_download&rr=8303a873ba1235b9">would require state-of-the-art techniques</a> to determine if these wrecks exhibit exotic or distinctly different characteristics of manufacture.</p>
<p>Obtaining such exotic samples, if they indeed exist, may prove challenging – they are rumoured to be <a href="https://nypost.com/2021/04/30/former-sen-harry-reid-thinks-lockheed-martin-may-have-ufo-fragments/">in the hands of private companies</a>. But <a href="https://www.democrats.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/schumer-rounds-introduce-new-legislation-to-declassify-government-records-related-to-unidentified-anomalous-phenomena-and-ufos_modeled-after-jfk-assassination-records-collection-act--as-an-amendment-to-ndaa">newly proposed legislation</a> might offer a solution to that problem in United States by mandating that all artificial materials from any non-human intelligence be surrendered to the US government.</p>
<p>In the projects I lead, we are searching for artificial non-human objects by <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094576522000480">looking for short light flashes</a> in the night sky. Short flashes typically occur when a flat, highly reflective surface — such as a mirror or glass — reflects sunlight. It could, however, also result from an artificial object emitting its own internal light.</p>
<p>Such short light flashes sometimes repeat and follow a straight line as the object tumbles in space during its orbit around the Earth. This is why satellites often appear as repeating light flashes in images. </p>
<p>Historical photographic plates taken before the launch of Sputnik 1 in 1957 <a href="https://earthsky.org/space/9-weird-transients-palomar-observatory-1950/">have revealed</a> the presence of nine light sources (transients) that appear and vanish within an hour in a small image, defying <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-92162-7">astronomical explanations</a>. In some cases, the transient light sources <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2204.06091">are even aligned</a>, just like when short flashes come from moving objects. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Image of the three disappearing stars." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563920/original/file-20231206-23-e5jplo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563920/original/file-20231206-23-e5jplo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=234&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563920/original/file-20231206-23-e5jplo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=234&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563920/original/file-20231206-23-e5jplo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=234&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563920/original/file-20231206-23-e5jplo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=294&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563920/original/file-20231206-23-e5jplo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=294&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563920/original/file-20231206-23-e5jplo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=294&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The three disappearing stars.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://academic.oup.com/mnras/advance-article/doi/10.1093/mnras/stad3422/7457759">[Edited, higher-resolution version of Fig 2 in paper by Solano et al. (2023)(https://academic.oup.com/mnras/advance-article/doi/10.1093/mnras/stad3422/7457759)]</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The <a href="https://www.universetoday.com/163820/in-1952-a-group-of-three-stars-vanished-astronomers-still-cant-find-them/">most recent finding</a> of this kind shows three bright stars in an image dated July 19, 1952 (coincidentally, the same time as the famous <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1952_Washington,_D.C.,_UFO_incident">Washington UFO flyovers</a>). The three stars were never seen again.</p>
<p>Searching for alien probes in the modern night sky presents a serious but necessary challenge. A new research programme, <a href="https://thedebrief.org/a-new-era-of-optical-seti-the-search-for-artificial-objects-of-non-human-origin/">known as ExoProbe</a>, searches for short light flashes from potential alien objects with the help of multiple telescopes. </p>
<p>To verify the authenticity of each flash, it must be observed in at least two different telescopes. Since these telescopes are separated by hundreds of kilometres, any light flash caused by an object within the inner Solar System enables the measurement of parallax — the apparent shift in the position of an object as seen from two different points — and the calculation of the distance to the object. </p>
<p>The ExoProbe project also uses its own methods to filter out light flashes from the millions of space debris fragments and thousands of satellites cluttering the sky. By adding a telescope taking real-time spectra (the wavelength distributions of the light) of the objects in a wide field, you can analyse the transients before they vanish into nothingness.</p>
<p>Finally, increasing the number of telescopes further enhances accuracy in measuring parallax and determining the actual three dimensional location of the object. Ultimately, the goal is to identify any potential alien object and bring it back to Earth for further study. </p>
<p>Some 60 years of searches for extraterrestrial civilisations in the radio frequencies have yielded no candidates whatsoever. We find ourselves at a moment in time when new paths must be explored. That means we can finally focus our attention closer to home. Regardless of the outcome, this journey is certainly an homage to our insatiable curiosity.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218658/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Beatriz Villarroel receives funding from a private donor for the ExoProbe project.</span></em></p>Several scientific projects are aiming to investigate UFO sightings.Beatriz Villarroel, Assistant professor of Physics, Stockholm UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2102762023-09-19T20:08:34Z2023-09-19T20:08:34ZChariots of the gods, ships in the sky: how unidentified aerial phenomena left their mark in ancient cultures<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544716/original/file-20230825-21-dja0ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C7%2C1191%2C842&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Hanns Glaser, Celestial phenomenon over Nuremberg, April 1561.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://uzb.swisscovery.slsp.ch/discovery/delivery/41SLSP_UZB:UZB/12464136840005508?lang=en">Zentralbibliothek Zürich</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>For thousands of years, people have been describing unexplainable gleaming objects in the sky.</p>
<p>Some aerial phenomena like comets, meteor showers, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/bolide">bolides</a>, auroras or even earthquake lightning – all easily explained by today’s knowledge – were widely reported in the ancient world. </p>
<p>The US Congress is <a href="https://time.com/6298287/congress-ufo-hearing/">currently investigating</a> unidentified aerial phenomena (UAPs – what you <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/air-space-magazine/ufos-uapswhatever-we-call-them-why-do-we-assume-mysterious-flying-objects-are-extraterrestrial-180978374/">might think of</a> as UFOs), in the wake of previously classified footage of UAPs being leaked and a former intelligence official alleging the US government possesses “off world” technologies. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, a recent NASA report concluded there is <a href="https://theconversation.com/nasa-report-finds-no-evidence-that-ufos-are-extraterrestrial-213528">no evidence</a> suggesting UAPs are of extraterrestrial origin.</p>
<p>Ancient writers saw these phenomena as signs of social unease and impending disaster. In this way, modern reactions to UAPs are similar to those of thousands of years ago. There is a long history of strange objects in the sky associated with political and military crises.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nasa-report-finds-no-evidence-that-ufos-are-extraterrestrial-213528">NASA report finds no evidence that UFOs are extraterrestrial</a>
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<h2>Ancient signs of trouble</h2>
<p>In the Bible, the <a href="https://www.thetorah.com/article/ezekiels-vision-of-god-and-the-chariot">prophet Ezekiel</a> mentioned a divine chariot: it glowed like hot metal in a fire and Ezekiel could see four living beings in it. They <a href="https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Ezekiel%201%3A4-28&version=KJV">looked</a> human-like, though they had four faces and four wings.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544705/original/file-20230825-2806-9j4ds9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544705/original/file-20230825-2806-9j4ds9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544705/original/file-20230825-2806-9j4ds9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544705/original/file-20230825-2806-9j4ds9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544705/original/file-20230825-2806-9j4ds9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544705/original/file-20230825-2806-9j4ds9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544705/original/file-20230825-2806-9j4ds9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544705/original/file-20230825-2806-9j4ds9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Giovanni Battista Fontana, The Vision of Ezekiel, 1579.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nga.gov/collection/art-object-page.162874.html">The National Gallery of Art</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The <em>vimāna</em> – the flying chariots of the gods – also appear in ancient Indian epics, including the <a href="https://www.sacred-texts.com/hin/dutt/">Mahābhārata and the Rāmāyana</a>. </p>
<p>In Hindu myths, the gods were portrayed as riding these chariots to every corner of the universe.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544708/original/file-20230825-22-hxy74b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544708/original/file-20230825-22-hxy74b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544708/original/file-20230825-22-hxy74b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=747&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544708/original/file-20230825-22-hxy74b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=747&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544708/original/file-20230825-22-hxy74b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=747&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544708/original/file-20230825-22-hxy74b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=939&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544708/original/file-20230825-22-hxy74b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=939&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544708/original/file-20230825-22-hxy74b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=939&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Krishna and Rukmini as Groom and Bride in a Celestial Chariot Driven by Ganesha, India, Rajasthan, Bundi, 1675-1700.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://collections.lacma.org/node/240545">Los Angeles County Museum of Art</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Describing portents of the winter of 218 BC, the Roman historian <a href="https://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/text?doc=Liv.%2021.62&lang=original">Livy said</a> a “spectacle of ships gleamed in the sky”. The Second Punic War had begun, and the enemy general Hannibal was on the verge of a series of victories. </p>
<p>Maybe these “ships” in the sky were odd cloud formations, but Livy’s choice of words suggests something “shining” or “gleaming” – qualities even today associated with UAPs. </p>
<p>Livy reports another appearance of ships in the sky in 173 BC, when a “great fleet” allegedly appeared. In the spring of 217 BC, with Hannibal still threatening Rome, Livy says “round shields were seen in the sky” over central Italy. </p>
<p>Livy doesn’t say if these objects gleamed like the “ships” seen the previous year, but the “shields” recall the appearance of “flying saucers”, the type of UAP that came to prominence at the height of the <a href="https://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/text?doc=Liv.%2021.62&lang=original">Cold War</a>. </p>
<p>Another curious classical UAP is recorded by the Greek writer <a href="https://penelope.uchicago.edu/Thayer/E/Roman/Texts/Plutarch/Lives/Lucullus*.html">Plutarch in his Life of Lucullus</a>, a Roman general. Lucullus’ forces were about to fight King Mithridates VI of Pontus when a strange object appeared between the two armies:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>suddenly, the sky burst asunder, and a huge, flame-like body was seen to fall between the two armies. In shape, it was most like a wine-jar (<em>pithos</em>), and in colour, like molten silver. Both sides were astonished at the sight, and separated.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>That the object was described as a <em>pithos</em>, a vessel which has a specific shape, suggests something more than a flashing light. Some have <a href="http://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/text?doc=Plut.+Luc.+8.6&fromdoc=Perseus%3Atext%3A2008.01.0046">interpreted this</a> as a meteor, but Plutarch’s focus on its shiny metallic nature does not match this possibility. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544727/original/file-20230825-21-lhyfct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A UFO shines down on Jesus" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544727/original/file-20230825-21-lhyfct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544727/original/file-20230825-21-lhyfct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=786&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544727/original/file-20230825-21-lhyfct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=786&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544727/original/file-20230825-21-lhyfct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=786&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544727/original/file-20230825-21-lhyfct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=988&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544727/original/file-20230825-21-lhyfct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=988&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544727/original/file-20230825-21-lhyfct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=988&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Arent de Gelder (1645–1727), The Baptism of Christ.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://data.fitzmuseum.cam.ac.uk/id/object/1418">The Fitzwilliam Museum</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Whatever it was, both armies thought it was a bad omen and withdrew. </p>
<p>Roman-Jewish historian <a href="https://www.gutenberg.org/files/2850/2850-h/2850-h.htm">Josephus</a>, writing about war between Roman and Jewish forces, records an aerial battle between UAPs in AD 65. Before sunset, “chariots” were seen in the sky, accompanied by “armed battalions hurtling through the clouds”. </p>
<p>Josephus says numerous eyewitnesses saw it and believed it foretold the Roman victory that followed.</p>
<h2>From ancient to modern doomsdays</h2>
<p>Saint Paul referred to God’s “shield of faith” in his <a href="https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Ephesians%201&version=KJV">Letter to the Ephesians</a>, while “ships voyaging in the sky” were a common theme in medieval Ireland, symbolising the safety the “ship” of the Church <a href="https://journals.lib.unb.ca/index.php/MCR/article/view/17808/22180">afforded believers</a>. </p>
<p>Reports of unusual phenomena increased at the turn of <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2887426">every millennium</a>, when Christian people feared or hoped for the Judgement Day predicted in the <a href="https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Revelation%201&version=KJV">Book of Revelation</a> in the Bible.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548724/original/file-20230918-29-4f2kzo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548724/original/file-20230918-29-4f2kzo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548724/original/file-20230918-29-4f2kzo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=921&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548724/original/file-20230918-29-4f2kzo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=921&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548724/original/file-20230918-29-4f2kzo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=921&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548724/original/file-20230918-29-4f2kzo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1157&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548724/original/file-20230918-29-4f2kzo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1157&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548724/original/file-20230918-29-4f2kzo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1157&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A King and His Retinue Confronting Ladies under a Celestial Battle, French, c. 1600.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nga.gov/collection/art-object-page.62648.html">The National Gallery of Art</a></span>
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<p><a href="https://academic.oup.com/book/27558/chapter-abstract/197560297?redirectedFrom=fulltext">Millennial ufology</a> is a fascinating development of recent Christian predictions of the end of the world, where the Messiah poses as a space traveller who returns to save us from Satanic aliens. </p>
<p>Millions of adults every year report experiences with UAPs: when interviewed about their experiences, some admit they are religious; others insist they are not. Importantly, ufology may well be a way of reconciling religion with science, <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/24458392">an approach many find appealing</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548729/original/file-20230918-27027-zzsqlo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548729/original/file-20230918-27027-zzsqlo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548729/original/file-20230918-27027-zzsqlo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548729/original/file-20230918-27027-zzsqlo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548729/original/file-20230918-27027-zzsqlo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548729/original/file-20230918-27027-zzsqlo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548729/original/file-20230918-27027-zzsqlo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548729/original/file-20230918-27027-zzsqlo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">An unclassified sketch of a UAP from the CIA.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:CIA_annotated_drawing_-_dark_grey_solid_looking_UFO.webp">National Archives/Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
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<p>We will never know what the objects and lights described by ancient texts were, and whether they were real or the result of psychological stress. At the very least, significant ancient sightings of UAPs almost always speak to conditions of anxiety and imminent change. </p>
<p>UAPs – ancient and modern – confirm our need to project our crises to objects in the skies. </p>
<p>Ancient people did not have the <a href="https://thebulletin.org/2023/01/press-release-doomsday-clock-set-at-90-seconds-to-midnight/">Doomsday Clock</a> to warn them how close the end was, but they watched the skies carefully and found plenty of warning up there. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/is-there-evidence-aliens-have-visited-earth-heres-whats-come-out-of-us-congress-hearings-on-unidentified-aerial-phenomena-183443">Is there evidence aliens have visited Earth? Here's what's come out of US congress hearings on 'unidentified aerial phenomena'</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210276/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eva Anagnostou-Laoutides receives funding from the Australian Research Council, Discovery Project: Crises of Leadership in the Eastern Roman Empire, 250-1000 CE.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>nothing to disclose </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael B. Charles does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Modern reactions to unidentified aerial phenomena (UAPs – what you might think of as UFOs) are similar to those of thousands of years ago.Michael B. Charles, Associate Professor, Management Discipline, Faculty of Business, Arts and Law, Southern Cross UniversityEva Anagnostou-Laoutides, Associate Professor in Ancient History, Australian Research Council Future Fellow, Macquarie UniversityMarcus Harmes, Professor in Pathways Education, University of Southern QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2136152023-09-19T15:08:14Z2023-09-19T15:08:14ZUFOs: how Nasa plans to get to the bottom of unexplained sightings<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548386/original/file-20230914-29-c7oo4l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C17%2C5982%2C3350&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/ufo-concept-glowing-orbs-floating-above-1978082291">Raggedstone / Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As reports continue flying in about what were traditionally called UFOs (unidentified flying objects), Nasa is taking the topic very seriously. In fact, following the publication of a report from an independent committee of experts in fields including astronomy and aviation safety, the agency has even appointed a new director of unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) research. </p>
<p>UAP is the term Nasa now uses for UFOs. <a href="https://science.nasa.gov/uap/">The committee was directed</a> to gather reports of UAPs and try to understand what these mysterious events really are, including answering the question of whether or not they could be extraterrestrial in origin. </p>
<p>The committee held a press conference <a href="https://theconversation.com/ufos-what-well-learn-from-the-nasa-panel-investigating-sightings-207328">back in May</a>, when it provided an update on its work up to that point. The study team outlined some of the common explanations for UAP sightings – which includes boats low on the horizon and high-flying balloons – as well as how many events remained truly unexplained. </p>
<p>Now, the committee has published the full report into what it has found, including recommendations for Nasa as its work continues. That report, which also contains Nasa’s response and plan as it moves forward, <a href="https://science.nasa.gov/science-pink/s3fs-public/atoms/files/UAP%20Independent%20Study%20Team%20-%20Final%20Report_0.pdf">can be read in full here</a>. I’ve also <a href="https://youtu.be/hUtH1r3o7VA">created a video</a> about the findings. </p>
<p>The report makes clear that, so far, the committee has absolutely no evidence that any of the reported UAP events have any involvement from aliens. But for the reports that are still unexplained by terrestrial phenomena or aircraft, the team doesn’t rule anything out. It makes it clear that an extraterrestrial origin is unlikely, but that it has no evidence at all for what these sightings are. </p>
<p>The rest of the report deals with how Nasa should respond to the findings, and what it plans to do to continue this research in future. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ufos-what-well-learn-from-the-nasa-panel-investigating-sightings-207328">UFOs: what we'll learn from the Nasa panel investigating sightings</a>
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<h2>Need for transparency</h2>
<p>The most substantial response has been the appointment of the director of UAP research – a brand new role. Initially, when announcing this, Nasa refused to name the person in the role. It hoped to shield the new UAP director from the kind of harassment that some members of the committee have received for their involvement in the research.</p>
<p>However, the space agency also pledged to be completely transparent about the work on UAPs and everything it finds. This philosophy seems to have prevailed, and Nasa later announced that the <a href="https://www.space.com/nasa-names-head-of-uap-research">new director would be Mark McInerney</a>, a previous Nasa liaison to the US Department of Defense. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Representation of UFOs." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548382/original/file-20230914-17-54dkao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=940%2C407%2C2982%2C1754&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548382/original/file-20230914-17-54dkao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548382/original/file-20230914-17-54dkao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548382/original/file-20230914-17-54dkao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548382/original/file-20230914-17-54dkao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548382/original/file-20230914-17-54dkao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548382/original/file-20230914-17-54dkao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A representation of UFOs.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/amazing-fantastic-background-extraterrestrial-aliens-spaceship-1461851036">IgorZH / Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>Nasa also put forward the idea of developing a smartphone app to aid with the future reporting of UAPs. While there are hundreds of sightings available for study by the committee, one persistent problem it has faced is <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/science/ufos-and-aerial-phenomena/nasa-ufo-unidentified-aerial-phenomena-panel-hearing-rcna87034">poor data and images</a>.</p>
<p>Nasa hopes to combat this issue for future reports by using the billions of high-tech detectors around the world that most people carry everywhere. Smartphones can collect a lot of high quality information, starting with photos and videos, but they can also gather data on <a href="https://gizmodo.com/all-the-sensors-in-your-smartphone-and-how-they-work-1797121002">gravity, magnetic fields, locations and more</a>. If the general public were open to the idea, Nasa would like to one day allow people to report sightings directly from their phones to the agency. </p>
<p>Another interesting revelation in the report is the prominence that Nasa believes artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning could have as this work continues. Looking for patterns in the UAP reports – such as geographical reporting hotspots – could hold the key to finally understanding the causes of some of the events that remain mysterious.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Chris Pattison explains the findings of the Nasa report on UAPs.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Pattern spotting is something that humans are very good at, but sometimes the common thread is so subtle and unexpected that people can’t spot it. Luckily, AI is getting better and more powerful, and pattern spotting is <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/cognitiveworld/2020/05/09/understanding-the-recognition-pattern-of-ai/">one of the things it excels at</a>. This raises the interesting possibility that AI could be essential in one day identifying the first evidence for extraterrestrial life visiting Earth. It’s not likely that we’ll identify aliens, but Nasa isn’t ruling it out. </p>
<p>The week that this report was released turned out to be a busy week for discussions about aliens. In Mexico, a journalist named Jaime Maussan <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/13/mexican-senate-hearing-ufos">presented alleged “mummified aliens”</a> to the country’s Congress that he claimed had been found in Peru. </p>
<p>He said the specimens contained non-human DNA, but this has <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-66853551">not yet been independently verified</a>. In fact, <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/aliens-mexico-congress-ufos-b2412522.html">much doubt</a> has been cast <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/mexico-congress-aliens-fake/">over the authenticity</a> of these corpses.</p>
<p>In both cases, the world must wait longer to get more concrete evidence. As more reports are collected by Nasa, it might be possible to get more clarity on what these strange objects are. And if independent testing of the Mexico specimens takes place, there might be a conclusion to this claim too.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213615/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher Pattison does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The space agency hopes to get to the bottom of the many sightings being reported.Christopher Pattison, Researcher at the Institute of Cosmology and Gravitation, University of PortsmouthLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2135282023-09-15T17:36:07Z2023-09-15T17:36:07ZNASA report finds no evidence that UFOs are extraterrestrial<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548453/original/file-20230915-27-9mccw0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C14%2C4690%2C2810&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">NASA's UAP study team and newly appointed director of UAP research represent growing efforts to study and declassify UFO-related data. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/f277d5676ab5460186317c9f8fd11427?ext=true">AP Photo/Terry Renn</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>NASA’s <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/feature/nasa-announces-unidentified-anomalous-phenomena-study-team-members/">independent study team</a> released its highly anticipated <a href="https://science.nasa.gov/science-pink/s3fs-public/atoms/files/UAP%20Independent%20Study%20Team%20-%20Final%20Report_0.pdf">report</a> on UFOs on Sept. 14, 2023. </p>
<p>In part to move beyond the <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/17/pentagon-dod-ufos-00032929">stigma often attached to UFOs</a>, where military pilots fear ridicule or job sanctions if they report them, UFOs are now characterized by the U.S. government as UAPs, or unidentified anomalous phenomena.</p>
<p>Bottom line: The study team found no evidence that reported UAP observations are extraterrestrial.</p>
<p>I’m a <a href="https://www.as.arizona.edu/people/faculty/chris-impey">professor of astronomy</a> who has written extensively on <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/living-cosmos/11D69005D09D25581AE4E6684EC8A3C1">astrobiology</a> and the <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/talking-about-life/696F47F802931AE9021CA72083313579">scientists</a> who search for life in the universe. I have long been <a href="https://theconversation.com/im-an-astronomer-and-i-think-aliens-may-be-out-there-but-ufo-sightings-arent-persuasive-150498">skeptical of the claim</a> that UFOs represent visits by aliens to Earth.</p>
<h2>From sensationalism to science</h2>
<p>During a <a href="https://uk.sports.yahoo.com/video/nasa-announces-findings-ufo-report-160301583.html">press briefing</a>, NASA Administrator <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/feature/nasa-administrator-bill-nelson/">Bill Nelson</a> noted that NASA has scientific programs to search for <a href="https://mars.nasa.gov/msr/">traces of life on Mars</a> and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/to-search-for-alien-life-astronomers-will-look-for-clues-in-the-atmospheres-of-distant-planets-and-the-james-webb-space-telescope-just-proved-its-possible-to-do-so-184828">imprints of biology</a> in the atmospheres of exoplanets. He said he wanted to shift the UAP conversation from sensationalism to one of science.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1702321823692832843"}"></div></p>
<p>With this statement, Nelson was alluding to some of the more outlandish claims about UAPs and UFOs. At a <a href="https://theconversation.com/whistleblower-calls-for-government-transparency-as-congress-digs-for-the-truth-about-ufos-210435">congressional hearing in July</a>, former Pentagon intelligence officer <a href="https://www.space.com/us-hiding-evidence-alien-intelligence-ufo-whistleblower-claims">David Grusch testified</a> that the American government has been hiding evidence of crashed UAPs and alien biological specimens. <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/28/pentagon-ufo-boss-congress-hearing-00108822">Sean Kirkpatrick</a>, head of the Pentagon office charged with investigating UAPs, has denied these claims.</p>
<p>And the same week NASA’s report came out, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/mexican-congress-holds-hearing-ufos-featuring-purported-alien-bodies-2023-09-13/">Mexican lawmakers</a> were shown by journalist Jaime Maussan two tiny, 1,000-year-old bodies that he claimed were the remains of “non-human” beings. Scientists have called this <a href="https://www.livescience.com/62045-alien-mummies-explained.html">claim fraudulent</a> and say the mummies may have been looted from gravesites in Peru. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">A controversial journalist presented the Mexican government with 1,000-year-old bodies that he claimed were aliens.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Conclusions from the report</h2>
<p>The NASA study team report sheds little light on whether some UAPs are extraterrestrial. In his comments, the chair of the study team, astronomer <a href="https://www.astro.princeton.edu/%7Edns/">David Spergel</a> stated that the team had seen “no evidence to suggest that UAPs are extraterrestrial in origin.” </p>
<p>Of the more than 800 unclassified sightings collected by the Department of Defense’s <a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3100053/dod-announces-the-establishment-of-the-all-domain-anomaly-resolution-office/">All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office</a> and reported at the NASA panel’s <a href="https://interestingengineering.com/science/nasas-quest-for-unidentified-anomalies-among-ufos">first public meeting</a> back in May 2023, only “a small handful cannot be immediately identified as known human-made or natural phenomena,” according to <a href="https://science.nasa.gov/science-pink/s3fs-public/atoms/files/UAP%20Independent%20Study%20Team%20-%20Final%20Report_0.pdf">the report</a>. </p>
<p>Many of the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/28/us/politics/ufo-military-reports.html">recent sightings</a> can be attributed to weather balloons and airborne clutter. Historically, <a href="http://www.ianridpath.com/ufo/astroufo1.html">most UFOs are astronomical objects</a> such as meteors, <a href="https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/intro.html">fireballs</a> and <a href="https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/local/2023/03/02/venus-and-jupiter-appeared-close-sparking-concern-of-ufos-or-aliens/69963097007/">the planet Venus</a>. </p>
<p>Some sightings represent <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/28/us/politics/ufo-military-reports.html">surveillance operations</a> by foreign powers, which is why the U.S. military considers this <a href="https://theconversation.com/whistleblower-calls-for-government-transparency-as-congress-digs-for-the-truth-about-ufos-210435">a national security issue</a>.</p>
<p>The report does offer recommendations to NASA on how to move these investigations forward.</p>
<p>Most of the UAP data considered by the study team comes from U.S. military aircraft. Analysis of this data is “hampered by poor sensor calibration, the lack of multiple measurements, the lack of sensor metadata, and the lack of baseline data.” The ideal set of measurements would include optical imaging, infrared imaging, and radar data, but very few reports have all these.</p>
<p>The NASA study team described in the report the types of data that can shed more light on UAPs. The authors note the importance of reducing the stigma that can cause both military and commercial pilots to feel that they cannot freely report sightings. The stigma stems from decades of <a href="https://theconversation.com/are-we-alone-the-question-is-worthy-of-serious-scientific-study-98843">conspiracy theories tied to UFOs</a>. </p>
<p>The NASA study team suggests gathering sightings by commercial pilots using the Federal Aviation Administration and combining these with classified sightings not included in the report. Team members did not have security clearance, so they could look only at the subset of military sightings that were unclassified. At the moment, there is no anonymous nationwide UAP reporting mechanism for commercial pilots.</p>
<p>With access to these classified sightings and a structured mechanism for commercial pilots to report sightings, the <a href="https://www.aaro.mil/">All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office</a> – the military office charged with leading the analysis effort – could have the most data. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/update-nasa-shares-uap-independent-study-report-names-director">NASA also announced</a> the appointment of a new director of research on UAPs. This position will oversee the creation of a database with resources to evaluate UAP sightings. </p>
<h2>Looking for a needle in a haystack</h2>
<p>Parts of the briefing resembled a primer on the scientific method. Using analogies, officials described the analysis process as looking for a needle in a haystack, or separating the wheat from the chaff. The officials said they needed a consistent and rigorous methodology for characterizing sightings, as a way of homing in on something truly anomalous.</p>
<p>Spergel said the study team’s goal was to characterize the hay – or the mundane phenomena – and subtract it to find the needle, or the potentially exciting discovery. He noted that artificial intelligence can help researchers comb through massive datasets to find rare, anomalous phenomena. AI is already being used this way in <a href="https://theconversation.com/ai-is-helping-astronomers-make-new-discoveries-and-learn-about-the-universe-faster-than-ever-before-204351">many areas of astronomy research</a>.</p>
<p>The speakers noted the importance of transparency. Transparency is important because UFOs have long been associated with <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/24/us/politics/ufo-report-us-pentagon.html">conspiracy theories and government cover-ups</a>. Similarly, much of the discussion during the congressional <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/26/politics/ufo-house-hearing-congress/index.html">UAP hearing</a> in July focused on a need for transparency. All scientific data that NASA gathers is made public on various websites, and officials said they intend to do the same with the nonclassified UAP data. </p>
<p>At the <a href="https://uk.sports.yahoo.com/video/nasa-announces-findings-ufo-report-160301583.html">beginning of the briefing</a>, Nelson gave his opinion that there were perhaps a trillion instances of life beyond Earth. So, it’s plausible that there is intelligent life out there. But the report says that when it comes to UAPs, extraterrestrial life must be the hypothesis of last resort. It quotes Thomas Jefferson: “Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.” That evidence does not yet exist.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213528/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Impey receives funding from the National Science Foundation.</span></em></p>Months after a military officer made sensational claims about unexplained objects in the skies, NASA released a report loosely outlining a scientific approach for analyzing UAP reports.Chris Impey, University Distinguished Professor of Astronomy, University of ArizonaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2110602023-08-16T15:41:09Z2023-08-16T15:41:09ZHow extraterrestrial tales of aliens gain traction<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541522/original/file-20230807-22-sc9euy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C5%2C1917%2C1270&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">file vz pp</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/es/image-illustration/spooky-silhouettes-aliens-bright-light-background-1095294290">vchal/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>One night, upon returning to the cave that his tribe calls home, the monkey-humanoid Moon-Watcher finds a strange crystal object, a kind of monolith that fascinates him at first, but then quickly loses his interest when he discovers that it is not edible. Soon after, the true purpose of the monolith is revealed to be none other than penetrating the minds of our ancestors to induce new abilities that, over time, will cause the development of an intelligence capable of creating new technology.</p>
<p>Many readers will recognise this scene from the novel <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001:_A_Space_Odyssey_(novel)">2001, A Space Odyssey, by Arthur C. Clarke</a>, and the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001:_A_Space_Odyssey">film of the same name, directed by Stanley Kubrick</a>. It almost goes without saying that the crystal monolith in question is the work of an extraterrestrial civilisation that observes life on other planets and “experiments” on them to encourage the development of intelligence in as many parts of the cosmos as possible.</p>
<h2>Seeking simple answers to complex questions</h2>
<p><a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/15866152/">Understanding how we, as a species, came to be intelligent is one of the great enigmas of evolutionary study</a>. Small mutations, followed by a process of natural selection to choose the most advantageous, seems too slow a process for structures as complex as the human nervous system or brain to emerge. It is this very complexity that allows millions of neurons to communicate with each other, resulting in the emergence of qualities such as the ability to respond voluntarily to environmental stimuli, or to ask questions about the very nature of humankind and the universe.</p>
<p>Nowadays, we know that there are <a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rspb.2023.0671?rfr_dat=cr_pub++0pubmed&url_ver=Z39.88-2003&rfr_id=ori%3Arid%3Acrossref.org">evolutionary mechanisms that have lead to great leaps in terms of complexity</a>, but that does not stop people from turning to non-human forces – Gods, extraterrestrials, spiritual energies – to explain things that are difficult to comprehend. </p>
<p>This has always been the case, in all human cultures. A classic example would be attributing atmospheric events – thunder, lightning, floods – to the wrath of God. These ideas came about before humans had ever left the ground, so it is no surprise that we turned our eyes even higher – to extraterrestrials – to explain other phenomena that we could only observe once travelling at high altitudes became part of our daily lives.</p>
<h2>The allure of the unknown</h2>
<p>The possibility that we might have been visited by beings from other worlds has always fascinated us. The element of mystery, of the unknown, only makes it more interesting.</p>
<p>Any phenomenon is made all the more enticing when it seems it is being covered up or hidden for secretive reasons. The attractiveness of conspiracies often leads people towards ideas which have no scientific basis, such as the belief that the Earth is flat, that humans never set foot on the Moon, or that vaccines can control our behaviour. </p>
<p>Even though these ideas have repeatedly been shown to be untrue, <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9910783/">their rapid dissemination through social media</a>, using simple, blunt language that appeals to emotion over logic, makes them very powerful weapons. </p>
<p>The supposed “proof” of alien visits to our planet ranges from <a href="https://books.google.es/books/about/Ancient_Aliens_in_the_Bible.html?id=G3vbAQAACAAJ&redir_esc=y">specific Bible passages</a> to ancient stone carvings portraying creatures or objects that may appear to be aliens or spacecraft. The latter often take the form of flying saucers.</p>
<p>However, we cannot forget that humans have always created imaginary creatures that resemble them and attributed them with magical powers. When imagining Gods, humans have given them a human appearance, and almost always imagined them as living in the sky.</p>
<p>When we look at these representations through modern eyes, we associate them with extraterrestrial beings or structures, when in fact they could be referring to a range of different things.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540141/original/file-20230731-3774-byqbny.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540141/original/file-20230731-3774-byqbny.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540141/original/file-20230731-3774-byqbny.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540141/original/file-20230731-3774-byqbny.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540141/original/file-20230731-3774-byqbny.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540141/original/file-20230731-3774-byqbny.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540141/original/file-20230731-3774-byqbny.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Image of petroglyphs in Cub Creek (Utah, United States of America).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">MikeGoad / Pixabay</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>When unproven stories become larger than life</h2>
<p>Recently, <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/26/politics/ufo-house-hearing-congress/index.html">in the United States Congress, UFOs (currently known as UAPs: “Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena”) are back in the limelight</a>. This is because a former air force intelligence official has made claims that the Pentagon is in possession of remains of extraterrestrial craft and “non-human biological matter”. The claims have been backed up by the testimony of a retired navy commander and a former navy pilot. </p>
<p>What we can be certain of is that the more we explore our skies, the more likely it is that we will encounter phenomena that we cannot explain. However, this does not mean that they are extraterrestrial. Past experience has shown us that most of these events can be attributed to optical illusions, spy or weather balloons, space junk, or even satellites that we ourselves have made.</p>
<p>In Spain, UFOs were a hot topic between the 1960s and the 1980s. In this era, everyone knew someone who was convinced that they had seen a UFO. This even reached the point where an exoplanet, called <a href="https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ummo">Ummo</a>, was made up. It was populated by a more advanced civilisation than ours who made contact with people on Earth. In the letters these aliens supposedly sent, the ‘Ummites’ explained concepts such as genetics and cell structure.</p>
<p>The truth is that nowadays, reading some of these letters can be quite amusing. <a href="https://books.google.es/books/about/El_hombre_que_susurraba_a_los_ummitas.html?id=u0v7GAAACAAJ&redir_esc=y">The story of the planet of Ummo was ultimately proved to be a monumental hoax</a>, a fact later admitted by its own creator. </p>
<p>The Ummo hoax was even linked to the creation of a paedophile ring, which should make us reflect on the harmful consequences that the spread of fabricated news stories can have.</p>
<h2>Can we deny the possibility that intelligent alien civilisations exist?</h2>
<p>The answer, of course, is no. The universe is immense, and it is more than likely that circumstances similar to those which led to the appearance of life on Earth have been repeated on other planets. But there is a huge distance (literally and figuratively) between acknowledging the existence of these creatures and considering the possibility that they might have visited us.</p>
<p><a href="https://exoplanets.nasa.gov/what-is-an-exoplanet/in-depth/">Exoplanets</a>, also known as extrasolar planets, are extremely far away, and we are limited by the speed of light which, as proven by Einstein, is the maximum possible speed at which anything can travel. Therefore, the journey to even a “nearby” exoplanet would take thousands of years. Maybe a civilisation more advanced than ours could find a way to do it faster, but not to the point of it being something easy or commonplace. </p>
<p>In any case, if the remains of alien life or spacecraft are stored away somewhere, why are they not being shown to us? Scientists would jump at the chance to analyse this organic matter to find out how it is structured, how it metabolises energy, or what molecules it uses to store genetic information. </p>
<p>Until there is proof, this is not a question of science, but rather, of stories. Stories can be very entertaining, but these kinds of stories do not help us to build a more accurate or helpful view of the world.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211060/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ester Lázaro Lázaro receives funding from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation and from the Spanish State Research Agency (MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033) through the project PID2020-113284GB-C22.</span></em></p>UFOs are back in the limelight after claims made by whistleblowers in the USA, but is it possible that aliens have visited Earth?Ester Lázaro Lázaro, Investigadora Científica de los Organismos Públicos de Investigación. Especializada en evolución de virus, Centro de Astrobiología (INTA-CSIC)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2034942023-08-14T12:23:14Z2023-08-14T12:23:14ZWhat is most likely going on in Area 51? A national security historian explains why you won’t find aliens there<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536155/original/file-20230706-19-6ho7f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C13%2C4608%2C3435&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">For decades, what lay at the end of this road was a mysterious secret.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Area_51_Main_Gate.jpg">David James Henry/Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/curious-kids-us-74795">Curious Kids</a> is a series for children of all ages. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, send it to <a href="mailto:curiouskidsus@theconversation.com">curiouskidsus@theconversation.com</a>.</em></p>
<hr>
<blockquote>
<p><strong>What is most likely going on in Area 51? – Griffin, age 10, South Lyon, Michigan</strong></p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<p>One of the reasons people can never be entirely sure about what is going on at Area 51 is that it is a highly classified secret military facility. It was not until 2013 that the U.S. government even acknowledged the existence and name “Area 51.” </p>
<p>This information came out as part of a broader set of documents released through a <a href="https://www.foia.gov/about.html">Freedom of Information Act</a> request, which is something regular citizens and groups can do to ask the U.S. government to provide details about government activities. In this case, the request made public formerly classified CIA information regarding the historical development and testing of the U-2 spy plane. The information also revealed where it was tested: Area 51!</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/scientific-contributions/Christopher-McKnight-Nichols-2119126815">national security historian</a>, I know there’s a long history of secrets at Area 51. I also know that none of those secrets have anything to do with space aliens.</p>
<h2>The place</h2>
<p>The base commonly referred to as Area 51 is located in a remote area of southern Nevada, roughly 100 miles (161 kilometers) from Las Vegas. It is in the middle of a federally protected area of the U.S. Air Force’s Nevada Test and Training Range, now known as the <a href="https://www.nnss.gov/">Nevada National Security Site</a>, which is inside the larger Nellis Air Force Range. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535094/original/file-20230630-27-ten4o0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="a map showing the city of Las Vegas in the bottom right corner and an inset of the United States in the bottom left corner with Southern Nevada highlighted" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535094/original/file-20230630-27-ten4o0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535094/original/file-20230630-27-ten4o0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535094/original/file-20230630-27-ten4o0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535094/original/file-20230630-27-ten4o0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535094/original/file-20230630-27-ten4o0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=535&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535094/original/file-20230630-27-ten4o0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=535&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535094/original/file-20230630-27-ten4o0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=535&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Area 51, the yellow rectangle in the center of the map, is tucked in the middle of the much larger Nellis Air Force Range.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Wfm_area51_map_en.png">DEMIS BV via Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Area 51 is the name on maps for the area within the Nevada National Security Site where the government carried out secret operations. The airfield at Area 51 is called Homey Airport, and the overall facility is often referred to as Groom Lake. Groom Lake is a salt flat, or dried-out lake, adjacent to the airport. </p>
<h2>The history</h2>
<p>In the early years of the <a href="https://kids.britannica.com/kids/article/Cold-War/352982">Cold War</a> between the United States and the Soviet Union, both nations sought new technological developments that might give one country more power than the other. A great amount of information about scientific achievements, such as on rockets or weapons – but also even on ways to grow more food or make fuel more efficient – was kept secret as an issue of national security. </p>
<p>A key part of not fighting another world war was, and still is, developing technologies to see what the other side is doing – that is, <a href="https://www.history.com/news/aerial-surveillance-spy-devices">surveillance technologies</a> that can spy on the enemy. The information gathered by new and improved surveillance technologies about new innovations with planes and weapons was very important to governments. </p>
<p>This meant that both the surveillance information and the technology to get it were closely held national security secrets. Very few people in the governments of the U.S. and Soviet Union knew about the secrets from the 1940s all the way up until the end of the Cold War in 1991. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536156/original/file-20230706-25-x0evon.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A single-seat jet aircraft with no markings flies high above the clouds" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536156/original/file-20230706-25-x0evon.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536156/original/file-20230706-25-x0evon.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536156/original/file-20230706-25-x0evon.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536156/original/file-20230706-25-x0evon.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536156/original/file-20230706-25-x0evon.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536156/original/file-20230706-25-x0evon.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536156/original/file-20230706-25-x0evon.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The U-2 spy plane was the first of many secrets kept at Area 51.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Usaf.u2.750pix.jpg">U.S. Air Force</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Central to all this was the U.S.’s <a href="https://www.britannica.com/technology/U-2">U-2 spy plane</a>. It could fly higher than other airplanes and was made to travel over targets all around the world to take high-resolution photographs and measurements. Area 51 was selected in 1955 to test the U-2 in part because its remote location could help keep the plane secret. </p>
<p>Area 51 became the test site for other secret new aircraft. This included the <a href="https://airandspace.si.edu/collection-objects/lockheed-sr-71-blackbird/nasm_A19920072000">A-12</a>, which, like the U-2, was a fast-flying reconnaissance plane. The A-12 was first test flown at Homey Airport in 1962. It had a bulging disc-like center to carry additional fuel. Its shape and shiny titanium body could well have been responsible for some people’s reports about seeing spherical ships, also known as flying saucers. </p>
<p>Another important – and odd-shaped – aircraft first tested at Area 51 was the stealth fighter known as the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/technology/F-117">F-117</a>. It first flew at Homey Airport in 1981.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536157/original/file-20230706-17-ckb57e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="a single-seat odd-shaped jet aircraft flies high above the desert" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536157/original/file-20230706-17-ckb57e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536157/original/file-20230706-17-ckb57e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536157/original/file-20230706-17-ckb57e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536157/original/file-20230706-17-ckb57e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536157/original/file-20230706-17-ckb57e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536157/original/file-20230706-17-ckb57e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536157/original/file-20230706-17-ckb57e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The F-117 stealth fighter looks like it could have come from another world but was made right here on Earth.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:F-117_Nighthawk_Front.jpg">U.S. Air Force</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Secrets and speculation</h2>
<p>“More Flying Objects Seen in Clark Sky,” read <a href="https://time.com/5627694/area-51-history/">the June 17, 1959, headline</a> in the Reno Evening Gazette newspaper. Reports like this of unidentified flying objects in the 1950s and 1960s fueled controversy and attention for Area 51. This was for three main reasons:</p>
<ol>
<li> Area 51 was highly secret and not publicly accessible. </li>
<li> The area was home to test flights of secret new airplanes that moved fast and in different ways than expected. </li>
<li> The Cold War was an era of political tension, and there were many movies and TV shows about space aliens at the time. </li>
</ol>
<p>When the government does not tell the public the full truth, no matter the reasons, secrets can <a href="https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/manhattan-project-library-charlotte-serber-oppenheimer-fbi">lead to wild speculation</a>. Secrecy can leave room for conspiracy theories to develop. </p>
<p>Area 51 remains off-limits to civilian and regular military air traffic, a decade after the government acknowledged its existence. The 68 years of government secrecy has helped to <a href="https://theconversation.com/yes-im-searching-for-aliens-and-no-i-wont-be-going-to-area-51-to-look-for-them-120584">amplify suspicions, speculation and conspiracy theories</a>. These <a href="https://content.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1860871_1860876_1861006,00.html">conspiracy theories</a> include crashed alien spaceships, space aliens being experimented on, and even space aliens working at Area 51. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536161/original/file-20230706-29-1fxni5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="a small crane holds a disk-shaped object in front of a sign for a restaurant that includes an image of a space alien" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536161/original/file-20230706-29-1fxni5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536161/original/file-20230706-29-1fxni5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536161/original/file-20230706-29-1fxni5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536161/original/file-20230706-29-1fxni5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536161/original/file-20230706-29-1fxni5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536161/original/file-20230706-29-1fxni5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536161/original/file-20230706-29-1fxni5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Speculation about space aliens at Area 51 has been part of popular culture for more than half a century.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/24874528@N04/14222448874/">Airwolfhound/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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<p>There are much simpler explanations for what witnesses have seen near Area 51. After all, the public now knows about what was being tested at Area 51, and when. For example, as U-2 and A-12 flights increased in the 1950s and 1960s, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/24/us/politics/ufo-report-us-pentagon.html">so did local sightings of UFOs</a>. As balloons and planes crashed, and secret testing of new technologies as well as captured Soviet equipment continued, <a href="https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/intelligence/2013-10-29/area-51-file-secret-aircraft-soviet-migs">so did reports of UFO crashes and landings</a>. </p>
<p>In fact, many UFO sightings <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2013/08/15/declassified-the-cias-secret-history-of-area-51/">match almost exactly</a> with dates and times of flights of then-classified experimental aircraft. We also know that prototype drones and more recent versions <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2013/08/16/the-cia-first-tested-drones-in-area-51-because-of-course-they-did/">have been tested at the site</a>.</p>
<p>In the end, there is no reason to think that anything other than earthly technologies have been behind the strange sights and sounds at Area 51.</p>
<p><em>This article has been updated to correct the descriptions of the name Area 51 and the U2 spy plane’s capabilities.</em></p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher Nichols does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>You’re not allowed to visit the part of Nevada known as Area 51. That’s because it’s a top-secret government facility. But the secrecy has to do with spy planes, not space aliens.Christopher Nichols, Professor of History, The Ohio State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2109552023-08-04T12:30:01Z2023-08-04T12:30:01ZAre we alone in the universe? 4 essential reads on potential contact with aliens<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541095/original/file-20230803-27-wa23kr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=39%2C0%2C8694%2C5617&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">UFOs usually have non-extraterrestrial origins, but many have urged the government to be more transparent about UFO data. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/long-exposure-of-andromeda-galaxy-royalty-free-image/1455373371?phrase=space&adppopup=true">Westend61/Westend61 via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The House subcommittee on National Security, the Border, and Foreign Affairs <a href="https://www.c-span.org/video/?529499-1/hearing-unidentified-aerial-phenomena">met in July 2023 to discuss</a> affairs so foreign that they may not even be of this world. During the meeting, several military officers testified that unidentified anomalous phenomena – the government’s name for UFOs – <a href="https://theconversation.com/whistleblower-calls-for-government-transparency-as-congress-digs-for-the-truth-about-ufos-210435">pose a threat</a> to national security. </p>
<p>Their testimony may have <a href="https://theconversation.com/whistleblower-calls-for-government-transparency-as-congress-digs-for-the-truth-about-ufos-210435">raised eyebrows in the chamber</a>, but there’s still no public physical evidence of extraterrestrial life. In fact, most UFO sightings <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-people-tend-to-believe-ufos-are-extraterrestrial-208403">have earthly explanations</a>, from tricks of the light to weather balloons. </p>
<p>Whether or not these testimonials hold any grains of truth, some scholars argue that simply by listening for signs of extraterrestrials, we’re already <a href="https://theconversation.com/first-contact-with-aliens-could-end-in-colonization-and-genocide-if-we-dont-learn-from-history-207793">engaging in the first phase of contact</a> with alien life. </p>
<p>These four articles from our archives dive into what went down during the subcommittee hearing, why perceived UFO sightings usually have human explanations, and how humanity can learn from history when it comes to engaging with extraterrestrials. </p>
<h2>1. Whistleblower allegations</h2>
<p>The most interesting testimony of the July 26 subcommittee hearing came from ex-Air Force Intelligence Officer David Grusch, who <a href="https://oversight.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Dave_G_HOC_Speech_FINAL_For_Trans.pdf">claimed that</a> the U.S. has nonhuman biological material recovered from a UFO crash site. The Pentagon has <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/house-oversight-plans-ufo-hearing-after-unconfirmed-claims/story?id=99899883">denied this claim</a>, and it has <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/house-oversight-plans-ufo-hearing-after-unconfirmed-claims/story?id=99899883">denied the existence of any program</a> designed to retrieve and reverse-engineer crashed UFOs. </p>
<p>All witnesses at the hearing advocated for more government transparency around reports of UFOs. Intelligence agencies and the Pentagon currently steward this data, most of which <a href="https://www.newsnationnow.com/space/ufo/pentagon-blocks-lawmakers-ufo-data-uap-hearing/">is not public</a>. While having access to more data may help understand what’s going on, as the University of Arizona’s <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=OrRLRQ4AAAAJ&hl=en">Chris Impey</a> put it, “the gold standard is physical evidence.”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/whistleblower-calls-for-government-transparency-as-congress-digs-for-the-truth-about-ufos-210435">Whistleblower calls for government transparency as Congress digs for the truth about UFOs</a>
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<h2>2. Sociological explanations</h2>
<p>Again, while no physical evidence has been made public, anyone surfing the internet can see plenty of alleged UFO videos, photos and stories. <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=ZEQu09wAAAAJ&hl=en">Barry Markovsky</a>, from the University of South Carolina, is a sociologist of shared beliefs and misconceptions who explained why UFOs seem to <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-people-tend-to-believe-ufos-are-extraterrestrial-208403">captivate the public</a> every few years.</p>
<p>People want explanations <a href="https://thedecisionlab.com/biases/ambiguity-effect">for ambiguous situations</a>, and they’re easily influenced by others. Social media enables a concept called <a href="https://doi.org/10.31269/triplec.v3i2.21">bottom-up social diffusion</a>. Say one user posts a blurry video claiming it depicts a UFO. It’s easy for that user’s network to see and repost the video and so on, until it goes viral. Then, when organized institutions like news outlets or government sources publish UFO-related information, that’s called <a href="https://doi.org/10.31269/triplec.v3i2.21">top-down social diffusion</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536695/original/file-20230710-15-14kf6i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two circle-and-line graphics, the left showing several circles connected to one another with lines, while the right shows one circle at the top connecting several other circles" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536695/original/file-20230710-15-14kf6i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536695/original/file-20230710-15-14kf6i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=284&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536695/original/file-20230710-15-14kf6i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=284&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536695/original/file-20230710-15-14kf6i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=284&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536695/original/file-20230710-15-14kf6i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536695/original/file-20230710-15-14kf6i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536695/original/file-20230710-15-14kf6i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The left image shows bottom-up diffusion, in which information spreads from person to person. The right shows top-down diffusion, in which information spreads from one authority.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Barry Markovsky</span></span>
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<p>“Diffusion processes can combine into self-reinforcing loops. Mass media spreads UFO content and piques worldwide interest in UFOs. More people aim their cameras at the skies, creating more opportunities to capture and share odd-looking content,” Markovsky wrote. “Poorly documented UFO pics and videos spread on social media, leading media outlets to grab and republish the most intriguing. Whistleblowers emerge periodically, fanning the flames with claims of secret evidence.”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-people-tend-to-believe-ufos-are-extraterrestrial-208403">Why people tend to believe UFOs are extraterrestrial</a>
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<h2>3. Signature detection</h2>
<p>While UFOs might have traction on social media, it’s likely that the first trace of extraterrestrial life won’t come from a crashed alien spaceship. Instead, scientists could potentially <a href="https://theconversation.com/signatures-of-alien-technology-could-be-how-humanity-first-finds-extraterrestrial-life-191054">pick up signals</a> like radio waves or pollution from some distant galaxy that might indicate extraterrestrial technology. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.seti.org/">Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence</a> is a group of scientists all working on the search for extraterrestrial life. Part of what they do is listen for these “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S1473550419000284">technosignatures</a>”.</p>
<p>As two astronomers who work on the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, Penn State’s <a href="https://sites.psu.edu/macyhuston/">Macy Huston</a> and <a href="https://sites.psu.edu/astrowright/">Jason Wright</a> wrote about how humans often <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.1126/science.199.4327.377">unintentionally broadcast signals</a> like radio waves into space. In theory, extraterrestrial civilizations could be doing the same thing – and if scientists can pick up on these signals, they might have their first hints at alien life. </p>
<p>“However, this approach assumes that extraterrestrial civilizations <a href="https://www.universetoday.com/149513/beyond-fermis-paradox-xvii-what-is-the-seti-paradox-hypothesis/">want to communicate</a> with other technologically advanced life,” Huston and Wright explained. “Humans very rarely send targeted signals into space, and some scholars argue that intelligent species may <a href="https://theconversation.com/blasting-out-earths-location-with-the-hope-of-reaching-aliens-is-a-controversial-idea-two-teams-of-scientists-are-doing-it-anyway-182036">purposefully avoid broadcasting</a> out their locations. This search for signals that no one may be sending is called <a href="https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.physics/0611283">the SETI Paradox</a>.” </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/signatures-of-alien-technology-could-be-how-humanity-first-finds-extraterrestrial-life-191054">Signatures of alien technology could be how humanity first finds extraterrestrial life</a>
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<h2>4. Ethical considerations</h2>
<p>While the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence hasn’t yet detected any extraterrestrial technosignatures, a <a href="https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2sq6f3b0">working group of interdisciplinary scholars</a> in Indigenous studies argued that the act of listening for these signals may already count as engaging in first contact with extraterrestrial life.</p>
<p>The Indigenous studies working group argued that first contact may not be just one event – rather, you can think of it as a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/2514848619862191">long phase</a> that begins with listening and planning. Listening can be an act of surveillance, and with that comes ethical considerations. </p>
<p>But research groups like the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence don’t often include perspectives from the humanities, even though there are many histories of first contact between groups of people here on Earth to draw from. </p>
<p>James Cook’s 1768 voyage to Oceania, for example, was planned as scientific exploration. But its <a href="https://doi.org/10.17953/aicrj.45.1.lempert">legacy of genocide</a> still affects the Indigenous people of Australia and New Zealand today. </p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/5gZwLGrJQrM?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">This BBC video describes the modern ramifications of Captain James Cook’s colonial legacy in New Zealand.</span></figcaption>
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<p>“The initial domino of a public ET message, or recovered bodies or ships, could initiate <a href="https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2010.0236">cascading events</a>, including military actions, corporate resource mining and perhaps even geopolitical reorganizing,” wrote <a href="https://www.wacd.ucla.edu/people/faculty/david-shorter">David Shorter</a>, <a href="https://www.bowdoin.edu/profiles/faculty/wlempert/index.html">William Lempert</a> and <a href="https://kimtallbear.com/">Kim Tallbear</a>. “No one can know for sure <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-your-religion-ready-to-meet-et-32541">how engagement with extraterrestrials would go</a>, though it’s better to consider cautionary tales from Earth’s own history sooner rather than later.”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/first-contact-with-aliens-could-end-in-colonization-and-genocide-if-we-dont-learn-from-history-207793">First contact with aliens could end in colonization and genocide if we don't learn from history</a>
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<p><em>Editor’s note: This story is a roundup of articles from The Conversation’s archives.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210955/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Whistleblower allegations that the government possesses UFOs may not be backed up by public physical evidence, but some argue that listening for extraterrestrial life is the first phase of contact.Mary Magnuson, Assistant Science EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2104352023-07-27T18:18:33Z2023-07-27T18:18:33ZWhistleblower calls for government transparency as Congress digs for the truth about UFOs<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539676/original/file-20230727-29-h44roy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=44%2C35%2C5845%2C3884&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A congressional subcommittee on unidentified anomalous phenomena met to hear testimony from military officers. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/the-u-s-capitol-building-royalty-free-image/1409850965?phrase=congress">Sarah Silbiger/Bloomberg via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A <a href="https://oversight.house.gov/subcommittee/national-security/">congressional subcommittee</a> <a href="https://www.c-span.org/video/?529499-1/hearing-unidentified-anomalous-phenomena-uap">met on July 26, 2023, to hear testimony</a> from several military officers who allege the government is concealing evidence of UFOs. By holding a <a href="https://oversight.house.gov/hearing/unidentified-anomalous-phenomena-implications-on-national-security-public-safety-and-government-transparency/">hearing</a> on UFOs – <a href="https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2023-07-24/congress-ufos-hearing-uap">now called</a> “unidentified anomalous phenomena” by government agencies – the subcommittee sought to understand whether these UAPs pose a threat to national security.</p>
<p>I’m an <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=OrRLRQ4AAAAJ&hl=en">astronomer</a> who studies and has written about <a href="https://wwnorton.com/books/9780393343861">cosmology</a>, <a href="https://wwnorton.com/books/9780393357509">black holes</a>, <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/718149/worlds-without-end-by-chris-impey/">exoplanets</a> and <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/living-cosmos/11D69005D09D25581AE4E6684EC8A3C1">life in the universe</a>. I’m also on the <a href="http://meti.org/en/advisors">advisory council</a> for an international group that strategizes how to communicate with an extraterrestrial civilization should the need ever arise.</p>
<p>While the hearings brought attention to UAPs and could lead to more reporting from people who work in the military and aviation, the testimonies did not produce evidence to fundamentally change the understanding of UAPs.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539775/original/file-20230727-15-yzt55u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A close-up shot of a blue striped suit and pink tie with a rectangular pin that has a UFO on it and the words 'I still want to believe'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539775/original/file-20230727-15-yzt55u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539775/original/file-20230727-15-yzt55u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539775/original/file-20230727-15-yzt55u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539775/original/file-20230727-15-yzt55u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539775/original/file-20230727-15-yzt55u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539775/original/file-20230727-15-yzt55u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539775/original/file-20230727-15-yzt55u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">An audience member at the hearing wears an ‘X-Files’ UFO pin.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Nathan Howard</span></span>
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<h2>UFO oversight so far</h2>
<p>The House subcommittee hearing follows a flurry of activity over the past few years. Public interest in UAPs surged in 2017 after three Navy videos were leaked and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/16/us/politics/pentagon-program-ufo-harry-reid.html">The New York Times reported</a> on a shadowy UAP program run by the Pentagon. In <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-intelligence-report-on-ufos-no-aliens-but-government-transparency-and-desire-for-better-data-might-bring-science-to-the-ufo-world-163059">June 2021</a>, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence released a <a href="https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Prelimary-Assessment-UAP-20210625.pdf">report</a> on the phenomena. In November 2021, the Pentagon <a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/2853121/dod-announces-the-establishment-of-the-airborne-object-identification-and-manag/">formed a new group</a> to coordinate efforts to detect and identify objects in restricted airspace.</p>
<p>Then in May 2022, a House Intelligence subcommittee held the first congressional hearing in over half a century on military reports of UAPs. Little new light was shed on the true nature of the sightings, but the <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/tech/ufo-senate-hearing-congress-live-pentagon-b2080711.html">officials tried to clarify the situation</a> by ruling things out.</p>
<p>While <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYfxwBQL69A&t=4s">officials noted</a> 18 occasions in which aerial objects had moved at considerable speed without visible means of propulsion, nobody had found unexplained wreckage or records of the military having either received communications from or having fired shots at UAPs. As such, the subcommittee decided that there was not yet enough evidence to claim UAPs are extraterrestrial.</p>
<p>Most recently, <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/feature/nasa-to-set-up-independent-study-on-unidentified-aerial-phenomena/">NASA convened</a> a panel in June 2022, which held its first public hearing in May this year. The panel will help NASA advise intelligence agencies and the Department of Defense on how to evaluate mysterious sightings. The panel is considering <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/31/world/nasa-uap-study-public-meeting-scn/index.html">800 sightings</a> accumulated over 27 years, with <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/31/world/nasa-uap-study-public-meeting-scn/index.html">50 to 100 new reports</a> coming in each month. Sean Kirkpatrick from the Department of Defense said that <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/31/world/nasa-uap-study-public-meeting-scn/index.html">only 2% to 5% of these are anomalous</a>, and the meeting drew no firm conclusions.</p>
<p>Which brings us to this week’s hearing. Congress is <a href="https://oversight.house.gov/release/national-security-subcommittee-to-hold-hearing-on-unidentified-anomalous-phenomena">getting frustrated</a> with the lack of transparency over UAP sightings. So the subcommittee is using its <a href="https://oversight.house.gov/about/">overall charge</a> of oversight and accountability to get some answers.</p>
<h2>Eyebrow-raising testimony</h2>
<p>Three witnesses, all ex-military officers, gave <a href="https://oversight.house.gov/hearing/unidentified-anomalous-phenomena-implications-on-national-security-public-safety-and-government-transparency/">sworn testimony</a> to the subcommittee. </p>
<p>David Fravor was a commander in the U.S. Navy in 2004, stationed on the USS Nimitz, when he and another pilot <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/navy-ufo-sighting-60-minutes-2021-05-16/">saw an object behaving inexplicably</a>. Video of the encounter was released by the Department of Defense in 2017 and publicized by <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/16/us/politics/unidentified-flying-object-navy.html">The New York Times</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://oversight.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/David-Fravor-Statement-for-House-Oversight-Committee.pdf">Fravor testified</a> that the technology he witnessed was far superior to anything human beings have. He described objects with no visible means of propulsion carrying out sudden maneuvers that no known technology could achieve.</p>
<p>“What concerns me is that there is no oversight from our elected officials on anything associated with our government possessing or working on craft that we believe are not of this world,” Fravor said. </p>
<p>The second witness, Ryan Graves, was an F-18 pilot for over a decade. While stationed at Virginia Beach in 2014, he says, UAP sightings were so frequent among his crew that they became part of daily briefs. <a href="https://oversight.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Ryan-HOC-Testimony.pdf">He recounted</a> a situation in which two jets had to take evasive action as they encountered a UAP. The description was striking – a dark gray cube inside a clear sphere – quite different from the classic “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2020/oct/13/is-the-flying-saucer-the-best-shape-for-a-spaceship">flying saucer</a>.”</p>
<p>Graves founded <a href="https://www.safeaerospace.org/">Americans for Safe Aerospace</a> to create a center of support and education for aircrew affected by UAP encounters. He testified that the group has 5,000 members and has taken information from 30 witnesses. Most are commercial pilots at major airlines. He alleged that all UAP videos since 2021 are classified by the Pentagon as secret or higher. Graves also said that only 5% of UAP sightings by military and commercial pilots are reported by the pilots that spot them. </p>
<p>“If everyone could see the sensor and video data that I have, there is no doubt that UAP would be a top priority for our defense, intelligence and scientific communities,” Graves said. </p>
<p>The real bombshell came from David Grusch, an Air Force intelligence officer who retired with the rank of major. His high level of security clearance meant he saw reports that were unknown to the public. He sought whistleblower protection after claiming that the U.S. government was <a href="https://thedebrief.org/intelligence-officials-say-u-s-has-retrieved-non-human-craft/">operating with secrecy</a> and above congressional oversight with regards to UAP – even claiming that crashed UAPs had yielded biological material of nonhuman origin. The <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/house-oversight-plans-ufo-hearing-after-unconfirmed-claims/story?id=99899883">Pentagon has denied</a> this claim. He also said he’d suffered retaliation after reporting this information to his superiors and to multiple inspectors general.</p>
<figure>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Grusch testifies that the U.S. government has recovered ‘nonhuman biologics.’</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>“I was informed, in the course of my official duties, of a multidecade UAP crash-retrieval and reverse-engineering program to which I was denied access,” Grusch said in <a href="https://oversight.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Dave_G_HOC_Speech_FINAL_For_Trans.pdf">his opening statement</a> to the subcommittee. The Pentagon has <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/house-oversight-plans-ufo-hearing-after-unconfirmed-claims/story?id=99899883">denied the existence of such a program</a> now or in the past. </p>
<h2>Calls for transparency</h2>
<p>While none of this testimony brought forward viable evidence of a broad government conspiracy, most UAP data is <a href="https://www.newsnationnow.com/space/ufo/pentagon-blocks-lawmakers-ufo-data-uap-hearing/">not made public</a> and is held by intelligence agencies or the Pentagon. Lawmakers from both parties called for more government transparency. When questioned, all three witnesses said that UAPs represented a clear threat to national security. </p>
<p>If these testimonies are truthful, UAPs of advanced technology – whether they originate from a foreign adversary or not – that make routine incursions into U.S. airspace are a cause for concern.</p>
<p>For now, the subcommittee will continue its work. A tangible outcome will probably be an <a href="https://oversight.house.gov/whistle/">anonymous reporting mechanism</a> to overcome the stigma commercial and military pilots feel when they witness a UAP. The push for government transparency will likely intensify, and subcommittee members hope to have a classified briefing to evaluate the claims made by Grusch.</p>
<p>As a scientist, I’m trained to be skeptical, and I know that <a href="http://www.ianridpath.com/ufo/astroufo1.html">most UFO sightings</a> <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-people-tend-to-believe-ufos-are-extraterrestrial-208403">have mundane explanations</a>. Visual evidence is also notoriously difficult to interpret, and even the dramatic Navy videos have been <a href="https://www.leonarddavid.com/debunking-navy-ufo-videos/">debunked</a>. More and better data will help resolve the issue, but the gold standard is physical evidence. If Grusch’s claims of crashed UAPs are ever verified, that will be the first UAP hearing with a truly dramatic outcome.</p>
<p><em>This article was updated on August 2, 2023 to correct the date of the Congressional hearing.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210435/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Impey receives funding from the National Science Foundation. </span></em></p>All who testified before a congressional subcommittee claimed that UFOs pose a threat to national security, though there’s still no public evidence that UFOs are extraterrestrial.Chris Impey, University Distinguished Professor of Astronomy, University of ArizonaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2077932023-07-19T12:23:49Z2023-07-19T12:23:49ZFirst contact with aliens could end in colonization and genocide if we don’t learn from history<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536178/original/file-20230706-15-uc6ukv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=44%2C0%2C4928%2C3260&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">SETI has been listening for markers that may indicate alien life -- but is doing so ethical?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/4TpL_oVkUcQ">Donald Giannati via Unsplash</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>We’re only halfway through 2023, and it feels already like the year of alien contact. </p>
<p>In February, President Joe Biden <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/02/16/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-united-states-response-to-recent-aerial-objects/">gave orders</a> to shoot down three unidentified aerial phenomena – NASA’s title for UFOs. Then, the alleged <a href="https://www.cnn.com/videos/business/2021/05/19/ufo-navy-video-jeremy-corbell-orig-jm.cnn">leaked footage</a> from a Navy pilot of a UFO, and then news of a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/06/whistleblower-ufo-alien-tech-spacecraft">whistleblower’s report</a> on a possible U.S. government cover-up about UFO research. Most recently, an independent analysis <a href="https://douglasjohnson.ghost.io/senate-intelligence-bill-gives-holders-of-non-earth-origin-six-months/">published in June</a> suggests that UFOs might have been collected by a clandestine agency of the U.S. government.</p>
<p>If any actual evidence of extraterrestrial life emerges, whether from whistleblower testimony or an admission of a cover-up, humans would face a historic paradigm shift. </p>
<p>As members of an Indigenous studies working group who were asked to lend our disciplinary expertise to a workshop affiliated with the <a href="https://seti.berkeley.edu/">Berkeley SETI Research Center</a>, we have studied centuries of culture contacts and their outcomes from around the globe. Our collaborative preparations for the workshop drew from transdisciplinary research in Australia, New Zealand, Africa and across the Americas. </p>
<p>In its final form, our <a href="https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2sq6f3b0">group statement</a> illustrated the need for diverse perspectives on the ethics of listening for alien life and a broadening of <a href="https://doi.org/10.17953/aicrj.45.1.shorter">what defines “intelligence” and “life.”</a> Based on our findings, we consider first contact less as an event and more as a long process that has already begun. </p>
<h2>Who’s in charge of first contact</h2>
<p>The question of who is “in charge” of preparing for contact with alien life immediately comes to mind. The communities – and their interpretive lenses – most likely to engage in any contact scenario would be military, corporate and scientific. </p>
<p>By giving Americans the legal right to profit from space tourism and planetary resource extraction, the <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/app/details/COMPS-15975">Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act of 2015</a> could mean that corporations will be the first to find signs of extraterrestrial societies. Otherwise, while detecting unidentified aerial phenomena is usually a military matter, and NASA takes the lead on <a href="https://theconversation.com/blasting-out-earths-location-with-the-hope-of-reaching-aliens-is-a-controversial-idea-two-teams-of-scientists-are-doing-it-anyway-182036">sending messages from Earth</a>, most activities around extraterrestrial communications and evidence fall to a program called <a href="https://www.seti.org/">SETI, or the search for extraterrestrial intelligence</a>. </p>
<p>SETI is a collection of scientists with a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/project-seti">variety of research endeavors</a>, including Breakthrough Listen, which listens for “<a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-3881/abf649">technosignatures</a>,” or markers, like pollutants, <a href="https://theconversation.com/signatures-of-alien-technology-could-be-how-humanity-first-finds-extraterrestrial-life-191054">of a designed technology</a>. </p>
<p>SETI investigators are <a href="https://www.seti.org/become-pi-or-affiliate">virtually always STEM</a> – science, technology, engineering and math – scholars. Few in the social science and humanities fields have been afforded opportunities to contribute to concepts of and preparations for contact.</p>
<p>In a promising act of disciplinary inclusion, the <a href="https://seti.berkeley.edu/listen/">Berkeley SETI Research Center</a> in 2018 invited working groups – including our <a href="https://doi.org/10.17953/aicrj.45.1.atalay_etal">Indigenous studies working group</a> – from outside STEM fields to craft perspective papers for SETI scientists to consider.</p>
<h2>Ethics of listening</h2>
<p>Neither Breakthough Listen nor SETI’s site features a current <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119711186.ch13">statement of ethics</a> beyond a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2010.0311">commitment to transparency</a>. Our working group was <a href="https://bis-space.com/shop/product/do-no-harm-cultural-imperialism-and-the-ethics-of-active-seti/">not the first</a> to raise this issue. And while the <a href="https://www.seti.org/event/seti-live-ethics-outer-space">SETI Institute</a> and <a href="https://www.pseti.psu.edu/seminar/">certain research centers</a> have included ethics in their event programming, it seems relevant to ask who NASA and SETI answer to, and what ethical guidelines they’re following for a potential first contact scenario. </p>
<p><a href="https://seti.wp.st-andrews.ac.uk/">SETI’s Post-Detection Hub</a> – another rare exception to SETI’s STEM-centrism – seems the most likely to develop a range of contact scenarios. The possible circumstances imagined include finding ET artifacts, detecting signals from thousands of light years away, dealing with linguistic incompatibility, finding microbial organisms in space or on other planets, and biological contamination of either their or our species. Whether the U.S. government or heads of military would heed these scenarios is another matter. </p>
<p>SETI-affiliated scholars <a href="https://youtu.be/1Op7AN0MeNw?t=1237">tend to reassure critics</a> that the intentions of those listening for technosignatures are benevolent, since “what harm could come from simply listening?” The chair emeritus of SETI Research, Jill Tarter, <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt1814k0q">defended listening</a> because any ET civilization would perceive our listening techniques as immature or elementary. </p>
<p>But our working group drew upon the history of colonial contacts <a href="https://doi.org/10.17953/aicrj.45.1.shorter">to show the dangers</a> of thinking that whole civilizations are comparatively advanced or intelligent. For example, when Christopher Columbus and other European explorers came to the Americas, those relationships were shaped by <a href="https://doi.org/10.1163/9789004421882_011">the preconceived notion</a> that the “Indians” were less advanced due to <a href="https://www.nebraskapress.unl.edu/nebraska-paperback/9780803253445/">their lack of writing</a>. This led to decades of <a href="https://www.harpercollins.com/products/the-other-slavery-andres-resendez?variant=39936147849250">Indigenous servitude</a> in the Americas. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537513/original/file-20230714-23-b71osm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A black and white engraving of a group of armed and armored men standing on the shore speaking to many naked men. Large ships sail in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537513/original/file-20230714-23-b71osm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537513/original/file-20230714-23-b71osm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537513/original/file-20230714-23-b71osm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537513/original/file-20230714-23-b71osm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537513/original/file-20230714-23-b71osm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537513/original/file-20230714-23-b71osm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537513/original/file-20230714-23-b71osm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This 16th century engraving shows Christopher Columbus landing in the Americas, where he and his explorers deemed the Indigenous people there as ‘primitive,’ as they had no writing system.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Columbus_landing_on_Hispaniola.JPG">Theodor de Bry/Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The working group statement also suggested that the act of listening is itself already within a “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/2514848619862191">phase of contact</a>.” Like colonialism itself, contact might best be thought of as a series of events that starts with planning, rather than a singular event. Seen this way, isn’t listening potentially without permission just another form of surveillance? To listen intently but indiscriminately seemed to our working group like a <a href="https://doi.org/10.17953/aicrj.45.1.shorter_tallbear">type of eavesdropping</a>. </p>
<p>It seems contradictory that we begin our relations with aliens by listening in without their permission while actively working to stop other countries from <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QI_rUsLT5Iw&ab_channel=WION">listening to certain U.S. communications</a>. If humans are initially perceived as disrespectful or careless, ET contact could more likely lead to <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-could-we-build-an-invisibility-cloak-to-hide-earth-from-an-alien-civilization-57092">their colonization of us</a>.</p>
<h2>Histories of contact</h2>
<p>Throughout histories of Western colonization, even in those few cases when contactees were intended to be protected, contact has led to brutal violence, pandemics, enslavement and genocide. </p>
<p>James Cook’s 1768 voyage on the HMS Endeavor was initiated by the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1098/rsnr.1969.0003">Royal Society</a>. This prestigious British academic society charged him with calculating the solar distance between the Earth and the Sun by measuring the visible movement of Venus across the Sun from Tahiti. The society strictly forbade him from any colonial engagements. </p>
<p>Though he achieved his scientific goals, Cook also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S1743921305001262">received orders</a> from the Crown to map and claim as much territory as possible on the return voyage. Cook’s actions put into motion wide-scale colonization and Indigenous dispossession across Oceania, including the <a href="https://doi.org/10.17953/aicrj.45.1.lempert">violent conquests of Australia and New Zealand</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537303/original/file-20230713-17-55wdsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A painting showing five men, two dogs, and a statue of a woman standing in a clearing near the ocean shore. The center man, James Cook, is holding his hat out." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537303/original/file-20230713-17-55wdsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537303/original/file-20230713-17-55wdsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537303/original/file-20230713-17-55wdsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537303/original/file-20230713-17-55wdsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537303/original/file-20230713-17-55wdsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537303/original/file-20230713-17-55wdsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537303/original/file-20230713-17-55wdsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The 1768 voyage of British captain James Cook, center, put into motion wide-scale colonization and Indigenous dispossession across Oceania.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://nla.gov.au/nla.obj-135646842/view">John Hamilton Mortimer via the National Library of Australia</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Royal Society gave Cook a “<a href="https://bigthink.com/thinking/star-trek-prime-directive/">prime directive</a>” of doing no harm and to only conduct research that would broadly benefit humanity. However, explorers are rarely independent from their funders, and their explorations reflect the political contexts of their time. </p>
<p>As scholars attuned to both research ethics and histories of colonialism, we wrote about Cook in our working group statement to showcase why SETI might want to explicitly disentangle their intentions <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/app/details/COMPS-15975">from those of corporations, the military and the government</a>. </p>
<p>Although separated by vast time and space, both Cook’s voyage and SETI share key qualities, including their appeal to celestial science in the service of all humanity. They also share a mismatch between their ethical protocols and the likely long-term impacts of their success.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/5gZwLGrJQrM?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">This BBC video describes the modern ramifications of Captain James Cook’s colonial legacy in New Zealand.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The initial domino of a public ET message, or recovered bodies or ships, could initiate <a href="https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2010.0236">cascading events</a>, including military actions, corporate resource mining and perhaps even geopolitical reorganizing. The history of imperialism and colonialism on Earth illustrates that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/14623520601056240">not everyone benefits from colonization</a>. No one can know for sure <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-your-religion-ready-to-meet-et-32541">how engagement with extraterrestrials would go</a>, though it’s better to consider cautionary tales from Earth’s own history sooner rather than later.</p>
<p><em>This article has been updated to correct the date of James Cook’s voyage.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207793/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Delgado Shorter has received funding from the National Science Foundation, the University of California, and the California Community Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>William Lempert has received funding from Bowdoin College, the Wenner-Gren Foundation for Anthropological Research, the Fulbright IIE US Scholar Program, the Lois Roth Endowment, the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, and the American Council of Learned Societies.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kim TallBear does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Three Indigenous studies scholars draw from colonial histories and explain why listening for alien life can have ethical ramifications.David Delgado Shorter, Professor of World Arts and Cultures/Dance, University of California, Los AngelesKim TallBear, Professor of Native Studies, University of AlbertaWilliam Lempert, Assistant Professor of Anthropology, Bowdoin CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2084032023-07-17T12:26:25Z2023-07-17T12:26:25ZWhy people tend to believe UFOs are extraterrestrial<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536674/original/file-20230710-27-qxl8co.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=63%2C0%2C7071%2C4657&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Photos claiming to be UFO evidence are often doctored or otherwise ambiguous. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/in-flight-above-urban-park-royalty-free-image/BD0513-001?phrase=ufos&adppopup=true">Ray Massey/The Image Bank via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Most of us still call them UFOs – unidentified flying objects. NASA <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/feature/nasa-announces-unidentified-aerial-phenomena-study-team-members/">recently adopted</a> the term “unidentified anomalous phenomena,” or UAP. Either way, every few years popular claims resurface that these things are not of our world, or that the <a href="https://thedebrief.org/intelligence-officials-say-u-s-has-retrieved-non-human-craft/">U.S. government has some stored away</a>.</p>
<p>I’m <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=ZEQu09wAAAAJ&hl=en">a sociologist</a> who focuses on the interplay between individuals and groups, especially concerning shared beliefs and misconceptions. As for why UFOs and their alleged occupants enthrall the public, I’ve found that normal human perceptual and social processes explain UFO buzz as much as anything up in the sky. </p>
<h2>Historical context</h2>
<p>Like political scandals and high-waisted jeans, UFOs trend in and out of collective awareness but never fully disappear. <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/ufos-exist-americans-national-geographic-survey/story?id=16661311">Thirty years of polling</a> find that <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2021/06/30/most-americans-believe-in-intelligent-life-beyond-earth-few-see-ufos-as-a-major-national-security-threat/">25%-50% of surveyed Americans</a> believe at least some UFOs are alien spacecraft. Today in the U.S., over <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/353420/larger-minority-says-ufos-alien-spacecraft.aspx">100 million adults</a> think our galactic neighbors pay us visits.</p>
<p>It wasn’t always so. Linking objects in the sky with visiting extraterrestrials has risen in popularity only in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/from-flying-boats-to-secret-soviet-weapons-to-alien-visitors-a-brief-cultural-history-of-ufos-164128">past 75 years</a>. Some of this is probably market-driven. Early UFO stories boosted newspaper and magazine sales, and today they are reliable <a href="https://kipac.stanford.edu/highlights/aliens-could-be-out-there-dont-trust-clickbait">clickbait</a> online. </p>
<p>In 1980, a popular book called “<a href="https://archive.org/details/roswellincident00berl">The Roswell Incident</a>” by Charles Berlitz and William L. Moore described an alleged flying saucer crash and government cover-up 33 years prior near Roswell, New Mexico. The only evidence ever to emerge from this story was a small string of downed weather balloons. Nevertheless, the book coincided with a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2022/07/08/roswell-flying-saucer-ufo/">resurgence of interest</a> in UFOs. From there, a steady stream of UFO-themed <a href="https://tvshowpilot.com/fun-posts/best-alien-tv-shows/">TV shows</a>, <a href="https://www.imdb.com/list/ls041828914/">films</a>, and <a href="https://screenrant.com/netflix-ufo-documentaries-best-greatest/">pseudo-documentaries</a> has fueled public interest. Perhaps inevitably, <a href="https://www.press.jhu.edu/books/title/12893/conspiracy">conspiracy theories</a> about government cover-ups have risen in parallel.</p>
<p>Some UFO cases inevitably remain unresolved. But despite <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-is-the-pentagon-interested-in-ufos-116714">the growing interest</a>, multiple <a href="https://www.af.mil/The-Roswell-Report/">investigations</a> have found <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/magazine/2021/08/11/stop-ufo-mania-no-evidence-of-aliens/">no evidence</a> that UFOs are of extraterrestrial origin – other than the occasional meteor or misidentification of <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/vision/universe/watchtheskies/03may_maximumvenus.html">Venus</a>. </p>
<p>But the U.S. Navy’s 2017 <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/16/us/politics/pentagon-program-ufo-harry-reid.html">Gimbal video</a> continues to appear in the media. It shows strange <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2TumprpOwHY&ab_channel=ABCNews">objects filmed by fighter jets</a>, often interpreted as evidence of alien spacecraft. And in June 2023, an otherwise credible Air Force veteran and former intelligence officer made the <a href="https://thedebrief.org/intelligence-officials-say-u-s-has-retrieved-non-human-craft/">stunning claim</a> that the U.S. government is storing numerous downed alien spacecraft and their dead occupants. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/2TumprpOwHY?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">UFO videos released by the U.S. Navy, often taken as evidence of alien spaceships.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Human factors contributing to UFO beliefs</h2>
<p>Only a small percentage of UFO believers are <a href="https://news.gallup.com/vault/190592/gallup-vault-eyewitnesses-flying-saucers.aspx">eyewitnesses</a>. The rest base their opinions on eerie images and videos strewn across both social media and traditional mass media. There are astronomical and biological reasons to be <a href="https://www.bloomsbury.com/us/skeptic-encyclopedia-of-pseudoscience-2-volumes-9781576076538/">skeptical</a> of UFO claims. But less often discussed are the psychological and social factors that bring them to the popular forefront.</p>
<p>Many people would love to know whether or not <a href="https://exoplanets.nasa.gov/news/1675/life-in-the-universe-what-are-the-odds/">we’re alone in the universe</a>. But so far, the evidence on UFO origins is ambiguous at best. Being <a href="https://thedecisionlab.com/biases/ambiguity-effect">averse to ambiguity</a>, people want answers. However, being highly motivated to find those answers can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.108.3.480">bias judgments</a>. People are more likely to accept weak evidence or fall prey to optical illusions if they support preexisting beliefs. </p>
<p>For example, in the 2017 Navy video, the UFO appears as a cylindrical aircraft moving rapidly over the background, rotating and darting in a manner unlike any terrestrial machine. <a href="https://www.skeptic.com/reading_room/gimbal-video-genuine-ufo-or-camera-artifact/">Science writer Mick West’s analysis</a> challenged this interpretation using data displayed on the tracking screen and some basic geometry. He explained how the movements attributed to the blurry UFO are an illusion. They stem from the plane’s trajectory relative to the object, the quick adjustments of the belly-mounted camera, and misperceptions based on our tendency to assume cameras and backgrounds are stationary.</p>
<p>West found the UFO’s flight characteristics were more like a bird’s or <a href="https://amuedge.com/beyond-ufos-what-are-navy-pilots-seeing-in-the-skies/">a weather balloon’s</a> than an acrobatic interstellar spacecraft. But the illusion is compelling, especially with the Navy’s still deeming the object unidentified.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AvhMMhW-JN0&t=249s&ab_channel=MickWest">West also addressed</a> the former intelligence officer’s <a href="https://thedebrief.org/intelligence-officials-say-u-s-has-retrieved-non-human-craft/">claim that the U.S. government possesses crashed UFOs</a> and dead aliens. He emphasized caution, given the whistleblower’s only evidence was that people he trusted told him they’d seen the alien artifacts. West noted we’ve <a href="https://bigthink.com/13-8/military-whistleblowers-ufos-70-years/">heard this sort of thing before</a>, along with promises that the proof will soon be revealed. But it never comes.</p>
<p>Anyone, including pilots and intelligence officers, can be socially influenced to see things that aren’t there. Research shows that hearing from others who claim to have seen something extraordinary is enough to <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1525/sop.2001.44.1.21">induce similar judgments</a>. The effect is heightened when the influencers are numerous or higher in status. Even recognized experts aren’t immune from <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-65771398">misjudging unfamiliar images</a> obtained under unusual conditions.</p>
<h2>Group factors contributing to UFO beliefs</h2>
<p>“Pics or it didn’t happen” is a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/news/2015/feb/26/pics-or-it-didnt-happen-mantra-instagram-era-facebook-twitter">popular expression</a> on social media. True to form, users are posting countless shaky images and videos of UFOs. Usually they’re nondescript lights in the sky captured on cellphone cameras. But they can <a href="https://www.feedough.com/why-things-go-viral/">go viral on social media</a> and reach millions of users. With no higher authority or organization propelling the content, social scientists call this a bottom-up <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.soc.24.1.265">social diffusion</a> process.</p>
<p>In contrast, top-down diffusion occurs when information emanates from centralized agents or organizations. In the case of UFOs, sources have included social institutions like <a href="https://www.af.mil/About-Us/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/104590/unidentified-flying-objects-and-air-force-project-blue-book/">the military</a>, individuals with large public platforms like <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/4062715-us-has-downplayed-the-number-of-ufo-sightings-senator-hawley/">U.S. senators</a>, and major media outlets like <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ufo-military-intelligence-60-minutes-2021-08-29/">CBS</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536695/original/file-20230710-15-14kf6i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two circle-and-line graphics, the left showing several circles connected to one another with lines, while the right shows one circle at the top connecting several other circles" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536695/original/file-20230710-15-14kf6i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536695/original/file-20230710-15-14kf6i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=284&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536695/original/file-20230710-15-14kf6i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=284&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536695/original/file-20230710-15-14kf6i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=284&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536695/original/file-20230710-15-14kf6i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536695/original/file-20230710-15-14kf6i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536695/original/file-20230710-15-14kf6i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The left image shows bottom-up diffusion, in which information spreads from person to person. The right shows top-down, in which information spreads from one authority.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Barry Markovsky</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Amateur organizations also promote active personal involvement for many thousands of members, <a href="https://mufon.com/">the Mutual UFO Network</a> being among the oldest and largest. But as Sharon A. Hill points out in her book “<a href="https://mcfarlandbooks.com/product/scientifical-americans/">Scientifical Americans</a>,” these groups apply questionable standards, spread misinformation and garner little respect within mainstream scientific communities.</p>
<p>Top-down and bottom-up <a href="https://doi.org/10.31269/triplec.v3i2.21">diffusion processes</a> can combine into <a href="https://qz.com/1714598/information-feedback-loops-make-social-media-more-dangerous">self-reinforcing loops</a>. Mass media spreads UFO content and piques worldwide interest in UFOs. More people aim their cameras at the skies, creating more opportunities to capture and share odd-looking content. Poorly documented UFO pics and videos spread on social media, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/radio/asithappens/as-it-happens-the-monday-edition-1.6065136/why-this-ufo-video-analyst-doesn-t-buy-the-hype-around-the-pentagon-report-1.6065138">leading media outlets</a> to grab and republish the most intriguing. Whistleblowers emerge periodically, fanning the flames with claims of secret evidence.</p>
<p>Despite the hoopla, nothing ever comes of it.</p>
<p>For a <a href="https://theconversation.com/are-we-alone-the-question-is-worthy-of-serious-scientific-study-98843">scientist familiar with the issues</a>, skepticism that UFOs carry alien beings is wholly separate from the <a href="https://www.space.com/25219-drake-equation.html">prospect of intelligent life</a> elsewhere in the universe. Scientists engaged in the <a href="https://www.seti.org/">search for extraterrestrial intelligence</a> have a number of ongoing research projects designed to detect signs of extraterrestrial life. If intelligent life is out there, they’ll likely be the first to know. </p>
<p>As astronomer <a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Contact/Carl-Sagan/9781501197987">Carl Sagan wrote</a>, “The universe is a pretty big place. If it’s just us, seems like an awful waste of space.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208403/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Barry Markovsky does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While UFO videos might seem compelling, they’re rarely backed up with evidence. A sociologist explains why claims of alien life gain traction through both social and mass media every few years.Barry Markovsky, Distinguished Professor Emeritus of Sociology, University of South CarolinaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2072052023-06-08T02:12:48Z2023-06-08T02:12:48ZAlien spacecraft allegations suggest the Pentagon has approved conspiracy theories – about itself<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530607/original/file-20230607-27-f0z5ax.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5393%2C3593&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Claims the US government has secretly retrieved crashed alien spacecraft and their non-human occupants are hardly new. They are firmly entrenched in post-war American UFO lore and conspiracy theory, inspiring the most famous narrative in ufology: the “<a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Roswell-incident">Roswell incident</a>”. </p>
<p>Now, however, journalists Leslie Kean and Ralph Blumenthal have injected fresh vigour into these ageing claims – apparently with the Pentagon’s approval.</p>
<p><a href="https://thedebrief.org/intelligence-officials-say-u-s-has-retrieved-non-human-craft/">In an article</a> for science and technology news site The Debrief, they report the US government, its allies, and defence contractors have retrieved multiple craft of non-human origin. </p>
<p>Additionally, they report this information has been illegally withheld from US Congress, the All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office <a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3100053/dod-announces-the-establishment-of-the-all-domain-anomaly-resolution-office/">established</a> by the US Department of Defense in 2022 to look into UFOs, and the public. </p>
<h2>What are the claims?</h2>
<p>The primary source for the new claims is former US intelligence official David Grusch.</p>
<p>Grusch’s credentials, verified by Kean and Blumenthal, are impressive. He is a veteran of the <a href="https://www.nga.mil">National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency</a> and the <a href="https://www.nro.gov">National Reconnaissance Office</a>. He represented both organisations on the US government’s task force studying unidentified aerial phenomena (the official term for UFOs).</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530613/original/file-20230607-22-xl8wwg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530613/original/file-20230607-22-xl8wwg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=604&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530613/original/file-20230607-22-xl8wwg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=604&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530613/original/file-20230607-22-xl8wwg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=604&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530613/original/file-20230607-22-xl8wwg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=759&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530613/original/file-20230607-22-xl8wwg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=759&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530613/original/file-20230607-22-xl8wwg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=759&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Unidentified aerial phenomena, such as this video taken by a US Navy pilot released in 2020, have been a source of renewed interest in recent years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Gimbal_The_First_Official_UAP_Footage_from_the_USG_for_Public_Release.webm">US Navy / Wikimedia</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Grusch <a href="https://thedebrief.org/intelligence-officials-say-u-s-has-retrieved-non-human-craft/">says</a> the retrieved materials are:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>of exotic origin (non-human intelligence, whether extraterrestrial or unknown origin) based on the vehicle morphologies and material science testing and the possession of unique atomic arrangements and radiological signatures.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Grusch’s claims are supported by Jonathan Grey, who works for the National Air and Space Intelligence Center, where he focuses on analysis of unidentified aerial phenomena. Grey told Kean and Blumenthal: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>The non-human intelligence phenomenon is real. We are not alone […] Retrievals of this kind are not limited to the United States.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>How credible are the claims?</h2>
<p>Kean and Blumenthal are credible and accomplished reporters on UFOs. </p>
<p>In 2017, writing with Helene Cooper for the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/16/us/politics/pentagon-program-ufo-harry-reid.html?_r=0">New York Times</a>, they revealed a secret US$22 million Pentagon UFO research program. That article did much to initiate a wider rethinking about UFOs, avoiding stereotypes, stigma and sensationalism.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-us-military-has-officially-published-three-ufo-videos-why-doesnt-anybody-seem-to-care-137498">The US military has officially published three UFO videos. Why doesn't anybody seem to care?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Most of the subsequent “<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-us-military-has-officially-published-three-ufo-videos-why-doesnt-anybody-seem-to-care-137498">UFO turn</a>” in US defence policy and public discourse has focused on images and eyewitness testimony of anomalous airborne objects. Now, Kean and Blumenthal may have brought anomalous objects themselves – and even their supposed non-human occupants – into the conversation.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/cH2B90uhFGw?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">David Grusch’s claims have reached the public through a multi-pronged media effort.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Shortly after the Debrief article, Australian journalist Ross Coulthart’s <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZSj7QsHRxHQ">interview with Grusch</a> appeared on US news network News Nation. In this interview, Grusch also claimed some of the retrieved craft contained “dead pilots”. Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Intelligence, Christopher Mellon, has also published an article in <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/06/03/ufo-crash-materials-intelligence-00100077">Politico</a> calling for greater transparency. </p>
<p>This looks a lot like an orchestrated effort to convince the public (and US Congress) something much more substantial than “things in the sky we can’t explain” is going on. </p>
<h2>Approved by the Pentagon?</h2>
<p>Grusch seems to have followed Pentagon protocol in publishing his information. Kean and Blumenthal write Grusch: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>provided the Defense Office of Prepublication and Security Review at the Department of Defense with the information he intended to disclose to us. His on-the-record statements were all “cleared for open publication” on April 4 and 6, 2023, in documents provided to us.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>What does that mean? A <a href="https://www.esd.whs.mil/Security-Review/PrePublication-and-Manuscripts/#:%7E:text=A%20prepublication%20security%20and%20policy%20review%20is%20the%20process%20by,controlled%2C%20or%20operational%20security%20related">Prepublication and Security Review</a> is how the Pentagon confirms information proposed for public release is reviewed to ensure compliance with established national and Department of Defense policies, and to determine it:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>contains no classified, controlled unclassified, export-controlled, or operational security related information.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>If Grusch’s information is true, it is surely both “classified” and “operational security related”. So why would the Pentagon approve its publication?</p>
<p>If Grusch’s information is false, it would probably not qualify as classified or operational security related. But this raises another question: why would the Pentagon approve the publication of an unfounded conspiracy theory about itself?</p>
<p>Doing so would likely mislead the public, journalists, and Congress. It would also undermine the Pentagon’s own attempt to understand the unidentified aerial phenomena problem: the All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office.</p>
<h2>An official denial</h2>
<p>Indeed, the All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZSj7QsHRxHQ">told News Nation</a> it: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>has not discovered any verifiable information to substantiate claims that any programs regarding the possession or reverse-engineering of extraterrestrial materials have existed in the past or exist currently.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Grusch has an explanation for this apparent ignorance. When it comes to unidentified aerial phenomena investigations, he says, the US government’s left hand doesn’t know what its right is doing, with: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>multiple agencies nesting [unidentified aerial phenomena] activities in conventional secret access programs without appropriate reporting to various oversight authorities.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Timothy Good’s classic 1987 exploration of UFO investigations, <a href="https://www.andrewlownie.co.uk/authors/timothy-good/books/above-top-secret">Above Top Secret</a>, described similar bureaucracy.</p>
<h2>Nested activities and segregated knowledge</h2>
<p>The notion of “nested” unidentified aerial phenomena activities, segregating knowledge within vast bureaucracies, is partly what makes Grusch’s claims both intriguing and (for now) unverifiable. </p>
<p>If this is the case, organisations focusing on unidentified aerial phenomena, such as the All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office, may operate in earnest and report transparently on the best information they have. Yet they may also be deprived of information essential to their activities. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/is-there-evidence-aliens-have-visited-earth-heres-whats-come-out-of-us-congress-hearings-on-unidentified-aerial-phenomena-183443">Is there evidence aliens have visited Earth? Here's what's come out of US congress hearings on 'unidentified aerial phenomena'</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>This would make them little more than PR fronts, designed to create the impression of meaningful action. </p>
<p>In the absence of direct experience of unidentified aerial phenomena, most of us rely on <em>information</em> about them to form our beliefs. Scrutinising how this information is produced and distributed is essential. </p>
<p>US government activity in this area will continue. Congressman James Comer, chair of the House Oversight Committee, has <a href="https://www.newsnationnow.com/politics/house-oversight-committee-hearings-ufos/">said</a> he will hold a hearing on UFOs in response to Grusch’s allegations.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Correction: A previous version of this article suggested Grusch’s claims of “dead pilots” were reported by Leslie Kean and Ralph Blumenthal in The Debrief. The article has been amended to show these claims were in fact made in Grusch’s interview with Ross Coulthart for News Nation.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207205/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adam Dodd does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A former intelligence official claims the US government has retrieved multiple craft of non-human origin, along with the occupants’ bodies.Adam Dodd, Tutor, School of Communication and the Arts, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1998552023-02-15T16:29:36Z2023-02-15T16:29:36ZWhat is a UFO? The US shot down three mysterious objects as interest and concern increase over unidentified craft<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509884/original/file-20230213-409-8uo0gt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=37%2C393%2C6211%2C3906&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Is it a bird? A plane? A suspected Chinese spy balloon?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/chinese-spy-balloon-flies-over-the-myrtle-beach-sc-united-news-photo/1246809673?phrase=balloon&adppopup=true">Peter Zay/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On the heels of the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-says-us-is-going-take-care-of-chinese-balloon-2023-02-04/">Feb. 4, 2023, shooting down of a Chinese balloon</a> suspected of spying on the U.S., American fighter jets have shot down <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/military-shoots-high-altitude-object-lake-huron-officials/story?id=97068247">three additional objects</a> in or near U.S. airspace.</p>
<p>When the media asked Glen VanHerck, the Air Force general responsible for overseeing North American airspace, about these events, he <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/ruling-out-aliens-senior-us-general-says-not-ruling-out-anything-yet-2023-02-13/">refused to rule out</a> extraterrestrial forces at play. Other military officials <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/12/us/politics/us-shoots-down-object-michigan.html">later clarified</a> that otherworldly origins aren’t a serious consideration, but the comment highlighted the U.S. government’s lack of knowledge about these objects.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=PxIOz7cAAAAJ&hl=en">space policy expert</a>, I’m often confronted with questions about UFOs and little green people. However, as these recent episodes have shown, a UFO is far more likely to be human-made, rather than originating from some faraway place in the universe.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509908/original/file-20230213-16-w5i76x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A screenshot from a Navy video taken by a pilot showing a white, mysterious craft in the sky." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509908/original/file-20230213-16-w5i76x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509908/original/file-20230213-16-w5i76x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509908/original/file-20230213-16-w5i76x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509908/original/file-20230213-16-w5i76x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509908/original/file-20230213-16-w5i76x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509908/original/file-20230213-16-w5i76x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509908/original/file-20230213-16-w5i76x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In 2020, the U.S. Navy released multiple videos of unidentified aerial phenomena, sparking interest in the public and government.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.navair.navy.mil/foia/documents">U.S. Navy</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What does UFO mean?</h2>
<p>Unidentified flying object, or UFO for short, is the term that has historically been used to describe aircraft that aren’t easily identified or explained. The <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/unidentified-flying-object">modern UFO craze</a> in the U.S. dates to the late 1940s and early 1950s, coinciding with the development of new technology like rockets and missiles.</p>
<p>Today, the U.S. government uses the phrase unidentified aerial phenomena, or UAPs. This change is partially to <a href="https://science.howstuffworks.com/space/aliens-ufos/uaps.htm">try to disassociate</a> the term from science fiction aliens. The term also encourages greater scientific study and reflects the fact that many of these “objects” end up being strange atmospheric phenomenon or tricks of camera equipment.</p>
<h2>Taking a serious look</h2>
<p>There are thousands of unconfirmed UAP sightings by the public each year, but until recently there was no formal way for the U.S. to track these sightings. That <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-intelligence-report-on-ufos-no-aliens-but-government-transparency-and-desire-for-better-data-might-bring-science-to-the-ufo-world-163059">lack of interest began to change</a> in 2020 when the Pentagon <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/27/politics/pentagon-ufo-videos/index.html">officially released</a> three videos taken from the cockpits of fighter jets showing unidentified objects moving in mysterious ways. </p>
<p>The following year, in 2021, Congress <a href="https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Prelimary-Assessment-UAP-20210625.pdf">mandated the creation of an assessment on UAPs</a>. As part of this report, the director of national intelligence identified 144 firsthand accounts of UAPs from military aviators and government sensors between 2004 and 2021.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Prelimary-Assessment-UAP-20210625.pdf">The report</a> identifies several potential explanations for UAPs, including clutter – an umbrella term that includes, for example, birds, balloons and drones. Other explanations include natural atmospheric phenomena such as ice crystals and thermal fluctuations, as well as secret technologies being developed by the U.S. or other nations.</p>
<p>It is this last category that has drawn attention, with the U.S. military shooting down a <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/pentagon-memo-says-object-shot-down-over-canada-was-a-small-metallic-balloon/ar-AA17rbnG">number of balloons</a> and unidentified objects in the last week. Countries like China and Russia can gather a significant amount of intelligence using satellites, but balloons – and potentially other technologies as yet unknown by the American public – represent another way to collect sensitive data. If the U.S. military or government can’t identify a new technology, it is easy to classify an object as a UAP.</p>
<p>In 2022 alone, the Pentagon <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/01/13/1149019140/ufo-report">received 247 new UAP reports</a>, about half of which were eventually attributed to balloons or “balloon-like entities.”</p>
<p>At the same time, it’s also easy to miss UAPs if people don’t know what to look for, as appears to be the case with <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64572324">previous spy balloons</a> that China has sent around the world. </p>
<p>Whether future UAPs are balloons, secret technology or something else, there will continue to be a greater national focus on studying UAPs and an increasing ability to detect them. It is likely that reports will continue to pour in and U.S. aircraft will keep tracking them down.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199855/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wendy N. Whitman Cobb is affiliated with the US Air Force School of Advanced Air and Space Studies. Her views are her own and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Department of Defense or any of its components.</span></em></p>There are thousands of sightings of UFOs – or ‘unidentified aerial phenomena’ as the US government prefers to call them – every year.Wendy Whitman Cobb, Professor of Strategy and Security Studies, Air UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1998292023-02-13T19:51:33Z2023-02-13T19:51:33ZNORAD’s value is on full display as flying objects shot down over North America<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509819/original/file-20230213-18-q86fwe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In this photo provided by the U.S. navy, sailors recover a high-altitude surveillance balloon off the coast of Myrtle Beach, S.C., on Feb. 5, 2023. A missile was fired by a U.S. F-22 off the Carolina coast to bring the balloon down.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(U.S. Navy via AP)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Four (and counting) air objects have violated North American airspace in less than a week.</p>
<p>It began with a <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/02/politics/us-tracking-china-spy-balloon/index.html">Chinese high-altitude surveillance balloon</a> flying over Alaska and northwestern Canada. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/china-violated-international-laws-and-standards-with-its-surveillance-balloon-199563">China violated international laws and standards with its surveillance balloon</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The North American Aerospace Defense Command <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/norad-monitoring-airborne-object-north-1.6745575">(NORAD) tracked the balloon and the three other air objects</a>. None appeared to pose a military threat to North America, but they still caused concern because they could both gather intelligence and interfere with civilian air traffic.</p>
<p>NORAD is binational. Canadian and United States military personnel are assigned to NORAD to focus on the defence of the North American continent, not just Canada or the U.S. It’s a vital command that has been overlooked and undervalued. It is, however, the first line of defence for both states — as many Americans and Canadians are now learning.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/norads-struggle-for-relevance-on-its-60th-birthday-94070">NORAD's struggle for relevance on its 60th birthday</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>NORAD’s reason for being</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.norad.mil/About-NORAD/">NORAD has three missions</a>:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>It warns and tracks air objects of concern (aerospace warning)</p></li>
<li><p>It can defeat (in other words, shoot down) these objects or escort them out of national airspace (aerospace control)</p></li>
<li><p>It tracks maritime vessels approaching North America that may be of concern (maritime warning)</p></li>
</ol>
<p>What’s unique about NORAD is that Canadian and American interceptors, personnel and assets work together seamlessly in joint commands. For example, Canadian personnel can be in charge of American NORAD personnel in Alaska while U.S. jets assigned to NORAD may operate in Canadian airspace. </p>
<p>NORAD personnel communicate and co-ordinate with each other across national boundaries. This is all part of the <a href="https://www.treaty-accord.gc.ca/text-texte.aspx?id=105060">NORAD agreement</a>.</p>
<p>It’s no accident that a statement by U.S. <a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3288535/statement-from-secretary-of-defense-lloyd-j-austin-iii/">Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin specifically noted Canada</a> and NORAD’s role in the dramatic <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/04/us/politics/chinese-spy-balloon-shot-down.html">shooting down of the Chinese surveillance balloon over the Atlantic Ocean on Feb. 4</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A Black man in a suit stands next to a dark-haired woman in a red coat, a Canadian flag in the foreground and a military band next to them." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509813/original/file-20230213-409-lg74on.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509813/original/file-20230213-409-lg74on.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509813/original/file-20230213-409-lg74on.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509813/original/file-20230213-409-lg74on.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509813/original/file-20230213-409-lg74on.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509813/original/file-20230213-409-lg74on.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509813/original/file-20230213-409-lg74on.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin welcomes Canada’s Defence Minister Anita Anand to the Pentagon during a welcoming ceremony in 2023 in Washington, D.C.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.norad.mil/Leadership/">NORAD Commander General Glen VanHerck</a> — a four-star U.S. general — is based at <a href="https://www.spacebasedelta1.spaceforce.mil/Peterson-SFB-Colorado/">Peterson Space Force Base</a> in Colorado Springs, and can reach out to both the American president and the Canadian prime minister. </p>
<p>He’s equally responsible to <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/news/2021/11/commander-norad-completes-first-visit-to-canada.html">American and Canadian citizens</a>. If a flying object needs to be shot down, the American president approves any action in U.S. airspace while the prime minister approves it in Canadian airspace. Sovereignty is respected.</p>
<p>However, both Canadian and American personnel and assets are involved. </p>
<p>This was evident in the case of the air objects flying <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/02/11/readout-of-president-bidens-call-with-prime-minister-trudeau-of-canada-2/">over the Yukon</a> and <a href="https://www.cheknews.ca/u-s-military-shoots-down-fourth-flying-object-this-time-over-lake-huron-1140531/">Lake Huron</a>. </p>
<p>While they were shot down in Canadian airspace with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s permission, American fighter jets were in position to assist and execute the commands. </p>
<p>Under NORAD provisions, it doesn’t matter if it’s Canadian or American jets used to shoot down unidentified flying objects over North America. NORAD’s mission was achieved with the appropriate national command authority.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1624891892566466564"}"></div></p>
<h2>NORAD now on our radar</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/2735041/joint-statement-on-norad-modernization/">While NORAD certainly needs modernizing</a> — it requires not only new radars, satellites and interceptors, but also ways to integrate information and intelligence from more partners and allies — the events of the past few days show it’s agile.</p>
<p>Those same events have also reminded both Canadians and Americans that North America is vulnerable.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509822/original/file-20230213-22-frhy41.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A grey-haired man in a military uniform speaks while a dark-haired man is seen behind him wearing a face mask." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509822/original/file-20230213-22-frhy41.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509822/original/file-20230213-22-frhy41.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509822/original/file-20230213-22-frhy41.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509822/original/file-20230213-22-frhy41.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509822/original/file-20230213-22-frhy41.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509822/original/file-20230213-22-frhy41.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509822/original/file-20230213-22-frhy41.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Gen. Glen VanHerck, NORAD commander, take part in a NORAD briefing in Colorado Springs, Colo., in June 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We don’t know the origins of all of the flying objects — that will be up to the FBI, RCMP and intelligence agencies to discern. If the air objects originated in foreign nations, next steps will involve the U.S. State Department and Global Affairs Canada. If they’re domestic in origin, it will be a matter for police and regulatory authorities. </p>
<p>Either way, the recent events have provided North Americans with a clear wake-up call. Canada is <a href="https://www.thewhig.com/2013/09/16/dreams-of-a-fireproof-house#:%7E:text=Canadian%20senator%20and%20member%20of,%2C%20far%20from%20inflammable%20materials.%E2%80%9D">not the “fire-proof house</a>” it once hoped it could be.</p>
<p>Neither is the U.S. immune from potential threats just because of its military might. </p>
<p>NORAD celebrates its 65th anniversary in May. The organization is clearly needed now more than ever. But its biggest challenge remains the lack of understanding of its value and importance.</p>
<p>If there’s any silver lining to the events of the past few weeks, perhaps it’s that North Americans will now recognize and appreciate the role NORAD plays in keeping them safe.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199829/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrea Charron receives funding from SSHRC and MINDS and is a member of a number of academic defence networks including the North American and Arctic Defence and Security Network (NAADSN) and the Canadian Defence and Security Network (CDSN).</span></em></p>If there’s any silver lining to the aerial objects being shot down over North America over the last few days, maybe it’s that North Americans will recognize and appreciate the binational NORAD.Andrea Charron, Associate Professor and Director of the Centre for Defence and Security Studies, University of ManitobaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1941032022-11-17T07:16:45Z2022-11-17T07:16:45ZUFOs are no laughing matter for us: behind the scenes of France’s real life ‘Ovni’ hunters<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495316/original/file-20221115-13-n2wr95.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C663%2C5455%2C2940&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Launch of SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket which resulted in reports being submitted GEIPAN.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">John D Sirlin/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In France, the <a href="https://www.geipan.fr/en">Study and Information Group on Unidentified Aerospace Phenomena</a> (GEIPAN), has been investigating unidentified aerial phenomena (UAPs) – more commonly known as UFOs – for the past 45 years. Attached to the <a href="https://cnes.fr/en/web/CNES-en/460-about-cnes.php">National Centre for Space Studies</a> (CNES), GEIPAN has been invited by NASA to present its activities and working methods before a newly established <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/feature/nasa-announces-unidentified-aerial-phenomena-study-team-members">independent team</a> that will study data and set up methods to analyse unusual phenomena observed in the sky.</p>
<p>Set up in 1977, GEIPAN is a team of four experts tasked with gathering witness accounts, conducting surveys, publishing studies, managing computer systems and overseeing the organisation’s operations. A technical department at CNES, it relies on outside personnel, expertise and talent, liaising with numerous investigators, experts and institutions, including France’s Air Force, National Gendarmerie and Police Force, the Directorate General for Civil Aviation, the <a href="https://www.cnrs.fr/en/cnrs">National Centre for Scientific Research</a> (CNRS) and the weather service Météo-France.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495363/original/file-20221115-23-y7694z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495363/original/file-20221115-23-y7694z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495363/original/file-20221115-23-y7694z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495363/original/file-20221115-23-y7694z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495363/original/file-20221115-23-y7694z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495363/original/file-20221115-23-y7694z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=651&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495363/original/file-20221115-23-y7694z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=651&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495363/original/file-20221115-23-y7694z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=651&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Scene from the Canal+ series <em>Ovni(s)</em> depicting a replica SimOvni device.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Canal+</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The existence of a “UFO Force” in France has entered the country’s popular imagination in recent years, with the Canal+ comedy drama series <a href="https://www.canalplus.com/series/ovni-s/h/15351287_50001"><em>Ovni(s)</em></a> – the French term for UFOs. In its quest for realism, the series depicts equipment used for GEIPAN investigations, including the “SimOvni”, which we use to create simulations of the phenomena described in eyewitness accounts.</p>
<h2>What exactly is a UAP?</h2>
<p>Unidentified aerial phenomena are unusual events observed by eyewitnesses that are seemingly inexplicable. They most often take the form of a bright light.</p>
<p>Simple explanations can be found for over 60% of UAPs – they are usually paper lanterns, party balloons, hot air balloons, aircraft, satellites, meteorites, stars, planets and so forth. While these occurrences may seem straightforward or banal, it is important to remember that every one of these recorded sightings presents some strange, unique, or noteworthy aspect. GEIPAN gathers 700 eyewitness reports annually, with 150 to 200 remaining as open investigations. Anyone is able to submit a report <a href="https://www.geipan.fr/en/what-did-i-see/step-1">using the form</a> on the GEIPAN website.</p>
<p>An event’s apparent peculiarity may be dependent on the environment and conditions of the sighting. These might involve low-light conditions, an absence of sound, atmospheric turbulence causing a star to twinkle strangely, or sunlight reflecting off a distant aeroplane.</p>
<p>[<em>Nearly 80,000 readers look to The Conversation France’s newsletter for expert insights into the world’s most pressing issues</em>. <a href="https://theconversation.com/fr/newsletters/la-newsletter-quotidienne-5?utm_source=inline-70ksignup">Sign up now</a>]</p>
<p>There are also more spectacular sightings, such as the appearance of meteorites breaking up in the atmosphere. One such atypical event was when the <a href="https://earthsky.org/space/spacex-starlink-satellites-explained/">Starlink satellite cluster</a> entered into orbit, giving rise to multiple reports of bright spots moving in a row, and others of a “glowing orb”. The series of spots were the 50 to 60 satellites themselves going into orbit, sighted at sunset or sunrise when the sky was darker and the sun was reflecting off the satellites. The orb corresponded to the second stage of the Falcon 9 rocket, which launched the satellites into orbit. Propulsions from this spacecraft every one to two seconds created a bubble of gas, which then appeared as a luminous sphere in the night sky under the light of the setting or rising sun. Alongside this sphere a shining spot, sometimes shaped like a butterfly, caused the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passivation_(spacecraft)">removal of the remaining oxygen and kerosene</a> from the rocket’s second stage before it re-entered the atmosphere.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493271/original/file-20221103-22-sgr4l7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493271/original/file-20221103-22-sgr4l7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493271/original/file-20221103-22-sgr4l7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=886&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493271/original/file-20221103-22-sgr4l7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=886&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493271/original/file-20221103-22-sgr4l7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=886&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493271/original/file-20221103-22-sgr4l7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1113&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493271/original/file-20221103-22-sgr4l7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1113&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493271/original/file-20221103-22-sgr4l7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1113&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sighting of the Falcon 9 rocket as documented by GEIPAN.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">GEIPAN</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>UAP reports can also be the result of a simple misinterpretation. An amateur astronomer might capture a high-quality image of a bright flash in the sky, but popular astronomy apps would not possess enough data to offer an explanation. In this case, only the CNES internal space surveillance department could prove the presence of the stage of a rocket reflecting the sun’s rays. Even the flickering candle of a paper lantern may be perceived as an object whizzing through the sky at extreme speed.</p>
<p>To understand and explain the observations that the GEIPAN receives, we rely on tools and applications across a range of domains, from aeronautics to aerospace (for satellites and debris), astronomy (for stars and meteorites), meteorology, image processing and more. </p>
<p>Reasonable explanations are found for around two thirds of the observed phenomena, but the remaining third remain unresolved due to a lack of information to analyse the report and produce an explanation. Then there are the “D cases”, accounting for around 3%, whereby we have enough information but have not found an explanation. This is when we deem all the hypotheses that we have formulated and analysed to be inconclusive.</p>
<h2>The GEIPAN methodology</h2>
<p>GEIPAN’s goal is clear: to present or attempt to present a rational answer for the misunderstood, unusual and sometimes spectacular occurrences spotted by witnesses, and to explain the reasons for their presumed irregularity.</p>
<p>There are three main phases involved in achieving this goal. In essence, we collect eyewitness accounts, conduct technical studies and publish analysis reports on the <a href="https://www.geipan.fr/">GEIPAN website</a>, while always protecting eyewitness anonymity.</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Each mission begins with a <strong>report</strong>, be it submitted via our website or at a local police station. Whether using still photos or video footage, the reports always include specific data as witnessed by a human being. As with other types of scientific measurement, the data contains “measurement interference”, which varies greatly depending on the individual. Sometimes the account is of excellent quality, but factors such as emotions, memories and beliefs can alter or even distort a witness’s perceptions. Our priority is to filter out this interference so as to isolate the factual data.</p></li>
<li><p>Next, we <strong>study the eyewitness account</strong> and its consistency. As the quality and quantity of reported information increases, its irregularity tends to decrease. At this stage, we use the GEIPAN computer database along with a host of technical applications and software. These include public-use tools as well as expertise developed by our partners, particularly that of the French Air Force (for reproducing flight paths), Météo-France (for precise weather conditions) and CNES itself (for high-precision tracking of satellites and debris).</p></li>
<li><p>Finally, we sometimes <strong>carry out fieldwork</strong>, which allows us to analyse the conditions of the sighting more precisely and conduct a cognitive interview with the eyewitness. Our aim in these interviews is to flesh out the account, revealing the most reliable information possible, while not distorting it. Developed and taught by our expert psychologist, this is an invaluable method at GEIPAN. For the trickiest cases, our multidisciplinary panel of experts is summoned to help advance the study and decide collectively on its conclusion.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Working together with NASA’s body independent experts over the coming months, France’s GEIPAN will detail its methods and share data. This will allow both groups to explore phenomena that resist easy explanation, examine related aerial hazards, and draw up recommendations for future research.</p>
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<p><em>Translated from the French by Enda Boorman for <a href="http://www.fastforword.fr/en">Fast ForWord</a> and Leighton Kille of The Conversation France.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194103/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Vincent Costes affiliated with France's Study and Information Group on Unidentified Aerospace Phenomena (GEIPAN)</span></em></p>If you see something mystifying happening in Europe’s skies, get in touch with France’s Study and Information Group on Unidentified Aerospace Phenomena. They could well have a rational explanation for you.Vincent Costes, Responsable du GEIPAN, Centre national d’études spatiales (CNES)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1834432022-05-20T01:50:09Z2022-05-20T01:50:09ZIs there evidence aliens have visited Earth? Here’s what’s come out of US congress hearings on ‘unidentified aerial phenomena’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464403/original/file-20220520-16-npefrs.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=134%2C208%2C8044%2C5248&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source"> JIM LO SCALZO/EPA</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The United States Congress recently held a hearing into US government information <a href="https://www.congress.gov/event/117th-congress/house-event/114761?s=1&r=4">pertaining to</a> “unidentified aerial phenomena” (UAPs). </p>
<p>The last investigation of this kind happened more than 50 years ago, as part of a US Air Force investigation called <a href="https://catalog.archives.gov/id/597821">Project Blue Book</a>, which examined reported sightings of unidentified flying objects (note the change in name). </p>
<p>The current hearings are the result of a stipulation attached to a <a href="https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/publications/intelligence-authorization-act-fiscal-year-2021">2020 COVID-19 relief bill</a>, which required US Intelligence agencies to produce a report on UAPs within 180 days. That <a href="https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Prelimary-Assessment-UAP-20210625.pdf">report</a> appeared in June last year. </p>
<p>But why would governments be interested in UAPs? One exciting line of thought is UAPs are alien spacecraft visiting Earth. It’s a concept that gets a lot of attention, by playing on decades of sci-fi movies, views about what goes on in <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Area_51">Area 51</a>, and purported sightings by the public.</p>
<p>A much more prosaic line of thought is governments are interested in unexplained aerial phenomena – especially those within their own sovereign airspace – because they may represent technologies developed by an adversary. </p>
<p>Indeed, most discussion at the recent hearing revolved around potential threats from UAPs, on the basis they were such human-made technologies.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/rO_M0hLlJ-Q?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Footage of three UAPs from US Navy pilots.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>None of the public testimony went any way towards supporting a conclusion that alien spacecraft have crashed on, or visited, Earth. The hearings did include closed classified sessions that presumably dealt with more sensitive security information.</p>
<p>There is no doubt unexplained phenomena have been observed, such as in footage obtained by navy pilots (above) showing fast moving airborne objects. But the leap to aliens requires far more substantial and direct evidence – incredible evidence – that can be widely scrutinised using the tools of science.</p>
<p>After all, the existence of life elsewhere in the universe is a fascinating question of science and society. So the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Search_for_extraterrestrial_intelligence">search for extra-terrestrial life</a> is a legitimate pursuit, subject to the same burden of evidence that applies to all science.</p>
<h2>A drop in an ocean</h2>
<p>On and off over the past decade, I’ve used radio telescopes to perform wide ranging experiments to search <a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2009.03267.pdf">for technosignatures</a> – signs of technological civilisations on planets elsewhere in our galaxy (the Milky Way). But after decades of many teams of experts using powerful telescopes, we still haven’t covered much territory. </p>
<p>If the Milky Way is considered equivalent to the Earth’s oceans, the sum total of our decades of searching is like taking a random swimming pool worth of water out of the ocean to search for a shark. </p>
<p>On top of that, we’re not even sure sharks exist and, if they do, what they would look like or how they would behave. While I believe life will almost certainly exist among the trillions of planets in the universe – the sheer scale of the universe is a problem.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/do-aliens-exist-we-asked-five-experts-161811">Do aliens exist? We asked five experts</a>
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<h2>What would it take to make contact?</h2>
<p>The vast volume of the universe makes it very difficult to achieve interstellar travel, receive signals, or communicate with any potential far-off lifeforms (at least according to the laws of physics as we know them).</p>
<p>Speeds are limited to the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speed_of_light">speed of light</a>, which is around 300,000 km per second. It’s pretty fast. But even at that speed it would take a signal roughly four years to travel between Earth and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alpha_Centauri">the nearest star</a> in our galaxy, which is four light years away.</p>
<p>But Einstein’s theory of special relativity tells us that, in practice, the speed of a physical object such as a spacecraft will be slower than the speed of light.</p>
<p>Also, thanks to the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverse-square_law">inverse square law of radiation</a>, signals get weaker in proportion to the square of the distance they have travelled. Over interstellar distances, that’s a killer. </p>
<p>So for planets hundreds or thousands of light years away, travel times are likely in the many thousands of years. And any signals originating from civilisations on those planets are incredibly weak and difficult to detect.</p>
<h2>Cover ups?</h2>
<p>Could it be aliens <em>have</em> crashed on Earth and the US government is just covering it up, as Republican Congressman <a href="https://burchett.house.gov/">Tim Burchett</a> claimed in <a href="https://www.the-sun.com/news/5356929/us-wreckage-ufos-truth-congressman/">his reaction to the hearing</a>?</p>
<p>For airlines belonging to the International Air Transport Association, the chance of plane crash is about <a href="https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/pr/2021-03-25-01/">one in a million</a>. That begs the question: do we think an alien spacecraft that can travel for thousands of years, across interstellar distances, is more robust and better designed than our planes? </p>
<p>Let’s say it’s a hundred times better. Which means the chance of a crash is one in a hundred million. So to end up with alien wreckage stashed away at Area 51, we would need one hundred million visits from alien spacecraft. That would be 2,739 visits from aliens per day, every day, for the past 100 years!</p>
<p>So, where are they? The near-Earth environment should be constantly buzzing with aliens.</p>
<p>With <a href="https://leolabs.space/?lang=en-au">radars constantly scanning space</a>, billions of mobile phone cameras, and hundreds of thousands of amateur astronomers photographing the sky (as well as professional astronomers with powerful telescopes), there should be a lot of really good evidence in the hands of the general public and scientists – not just governments.</p>
<p>It’s much more likely the UAPs presented in evidence are home-grown, or due to natural phenomena we don’t yet understand. </p>
<p>In science, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam%27s_razor">Occam’s Razor</a> is still a great starting point; the best explanation is the simplest explanation consistent with the known facts. Until there is much more – and much, much better – evidence, let’s conclude aliens haven’t visited yet.</p>
<p>I can’t lie though, I’m hoping I’ll see a time when that evidence exists. Until then, I’ll keep searching the skies to do my bit.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183443/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Steven Tingay receives funding from Western Australian Government, Australian Government, and international funding agencies. He is a member of the Australian Labor Party.</span></em></p>What kind of evidence would we really need, before we could reasonably conclude alien contact had been made?Steven Tingay, John Curtin Distinguished Professor (Radio Astronomy), Curtin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1652372021-07-29T05:02:20Z2021-07-29T05:02:20ZIs the truth out there? How the Harvard-based Galileo Project will search the skies for alien technology<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/413552/original/file-20210728-17-2hy3t4.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=9%2C0%2C1268%2C751&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">ESO</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Can we find alien technology? That is the ambitious goal of the <a href="https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/galileo">Galileo Project</a>, launched this week by Harvard astrophysicist Avi Loeb with substantial private financial backing. </p>
<p>The project is far from the first attempt to detect signs of civilisations beyond Earth. Loeb has been criticised in the past for his <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2021/02/16/watch-harvard-astronomer-mansplains-seti-to-the-legend-who-inspired-carl-sagans-contact/?sh=ac97ad1620b8">dismissive approach</a> to previous efforts to find extraterrestrial life and his <a href="https://lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v43/n11/chris-lintott/flying-pancakes-from-space">argument</a> that an alien artefact passed through our solar system in 2017. </p>
<p>So why do Loeb and his collaborators think they have a chance of finding something where others have failed? There are three triggers that suggest they might.</p>
<h2>Exoplanets, ‘Oumuamua, and UFOs</h2>
<p>First, years of painstaking observations have shown that <a href="https://theconversation.com/nasas-planet-hunting-spacecraft-tess-is-now-on-its-mission-to-search-for-new-worlds-94291">many stars</a> host Earth-like planets. There is a real chance these “exoplanets” might be home to alien civilisations.</p>
<p>Second, five years ago, an interstellar visitor, dubbed 'Oumuamua, tumbled though our solar system. It was a skinny object about 400 metres long, and we know from its speed and trajectory that it arrived from outside our solar system. It was the first time we had ever seen an interstellar object enter our neighbourhood. </p>
<p>Unfortunately it caught us on the hop, and we didn’t notice it until it was on its way out. So we didn’t get a chance to have a really good look at it.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/no-sign-of-alien-life-so-far-on-the-mystery-visitor-from-space-but-were-still-looking-89223">No sign of alien life 'so far' on the mystery visitor from space, but we're still looking</a>
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<p>Scientists were divided on the question of what 'Oumuamua might be. Many thought it was simply an interstellar shard of rock, even though we had no idea how such a shard might be produced or slung our way. </p>
<p>Others, including Loeb, thought there was a chance it was a spacecraft from another civilisation. Some scientists felt such claims to be far-fetched. Others pointed out that science should be open-minded and, in the absence of a good explanation, we should examine all plausible solutions. </p>
<p>Today, the question is still hanging. We don’t know whether 'Oumuamua was a spaceship or merely an inert lump of rock.</p>
<p>The third trigger for the Galileo Project came from the US military. In June, the Office of the US Director of National Intelligence <a href="https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Prelimary-Assessment-UAP-20210625.pdf">announced</a> that some military <a href="https://theconversation.com/from-flying-boats-to-secret-soviet-weapons-to-alien-visitors-a-brief-cultural-history-of-ufos-164128">reports of UFOs</a>, or UAPs (Unidentified Aerial Phenomena) as they are now known, seem real. </p>
<p>Specifically, the report said some UAPs “probably do represent physical objects given that a majority of UAP were registered across multiple sensors” and there was no known explanation for them. </p>
<p>In other words, they aren’t meteorological phenomena, or faulty instruments, or weather balloons, or clandestine military experiments. So what are they? </p>
<p>Again, the question is left hanging. The report seems to rule out known technology, and suggests “advanced technology”, but stops short of suggesting it is the work of aliens. </p>
<h2>Science to the rescue</h2>
<p>Loeb takes the view that instead of debating whether either 'Oumuamua or UAPs provide evidence of alien intelligence, we should do what scientists are good at: get some reliable data. And, he argues, scientists are the people to do it, not politicians or military staff. As the US report says, the sensors used by the military “are not generally suited for identifying UAP”.</p>
<p>Few subjects divide scientists as much as the existence of aliens. On one hand, there are serious SETI (Search for Extra-terrestrial Intelligence) projects, such as <a href="https://www.seti.org/seti-institute/project/details/project-phoenix">Project Phoenix</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/curious-kids-what-has-the-search-for-extraterrestrial-life-actually-yielded-and-how-does-it-work-122454">Breakthrough Listen</a>, that use the world’s largest telescopes to search for signals from some extraterrestrial intelligence. </p>
<p>At the other extreme, few scientists are persuaded by the fuzzy photos and dubious eyewitness accounts that seem to <a href="https://theconversation.com/ufos-climate-change-and-missing-airliners-how-to-separate-fact-from-fiction-59587">characterise many UFO reports</a>.</p>
<p>The Galileo Project is very different from SETI searches or collections of UFO sightings. Instead, it will explicitly search for evidence of alien artefacts, either in space or on Earth. </p>
<h2>But is it science?</h2>
<p>Is this science? Loeb is convinced that it is. He argues the Galileo Project will bring scientific techniques and expertise to bear on one of the most important questions we can ask: are we alone? And the project will build purpose-designed equipment, optimised for the detection of alien artefacts. </p>
<p>Will it find anything? The odds are poor, as Loeb admits. In essence it’s a fishing expedition. But if there is a prima facie case for the existence of alien technology, then science has a duty to investigate it.</p>
<p>But suppose they do find something? Will we get to hear about it, or will it be locked up in some future <a href="https://theconversation.com/internet-jokesters-call-for-people-to-storm-area-51-to-find-aliens-heres-some-science-to-consider-120715">Area 51</a>? </p>
<p>The Galileo Project has promised all data will be made public, and all results will be published in peer-reviewed journals. Indeed, one of the reasons it will not use existing military data is because much of it is classified, which would restrict the project’s freedom to make the results public.</p>
<p>Or perhaps the project will find natural explanations for 'Oumuamua and UAPs. But even that will be a new scientific discovery, perhaps revealing new natural phenomena. </p>
<p>As Loeb <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3NqRak2tjc">says</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Whenever we look at the sky in a new way, we find something new. We will find something exciting no matter what. </p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/wtf-newly-discovered-ghostly-circles-in-the-sky-cant-be-explained-by-current-theories-and-astronomers-are-excited-142812">'WTF?': newly discovered ghostly circles in the sky can't be explained by current theories, and astronomers are excited</a>
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</p>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/165237/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ray Norris does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Can the Galileo Project find alien technology?Ray Norris, Professor, School of Science, Western Sydney UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1641282021-07-08T12:37:55Z2021-07-08T12:37:55ZFrom flying boats to secret Soviet weapons to alien visitors – a brief cultural history of UFOs<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/410220/original/file-20210707-19-bmhwxd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=58%2C116%2C5412%2C3137&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The worldwide fascination with UFOs started in the late 1940s after a few incidents made the news in the U.S.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/roswell-ufo-museum-sign-royalty-free-image/6117-000980?adppopup=true"> David Zaitz/The Image Bank via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>On June 25, 2021, the U.S. government released a nine–page preliminary report on UFOs, or, as it is now calling them, Unidentified Aerial Phenomena, or UAPs. The report is the latest notable event in what has been a renaissance for UFOs in recent years. Greg Eghigian is a historian of science at Penn State who has published research and is writing a book on the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0963662515617706">history of UFOs in the U.S.</a> We spoke with him for The Conversation Weekly podcast the day before the new report came out to better understand the cultural history of UFOs in the U.S.</em> </p>
<iframe src="https://embed.acast.com/60087127b9687759d637bade/60dc8ee702a6470012b996d6?cover=true" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay" width="100%" height="110"></iframe>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-561" class="tc-infographic" height="100" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/561/4fbbd099d631750693d02bac632430b71b37cd5f/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p><em>Below are excerpts from our conversation that have been edited for length and clarity.</em></p>
<h2>When did the idea of UFOs first emerge?</h2>
<p>The idea of aliens and that other worlds might be inhabited actually goes back to ancient times. The question was a <a href="https://store.doverpublications.com/0486145018.html">matter of real debate</a> among philosophers, scientists and theologians in the Western world by the 18th century and it was widely accepted that alien civilizations existed. </p>
<p>But something changed in the 19th century. That’s when you first start to see these reports of people seeing what they say were <a href="https://www.worldcat.org/title/ufos-alien-contact-two-centuries-of-mystery/oclc/38061605">flying ships overhead</a>. The things people describe back then sound a lot like the things they were familiar with – they literally saw <a href="https://www.readex.com/blog/ufo-fever-americas-historical-newspapers-mysterious-airships-1896-97">ships and vessels that would normally float on the sea in flight</a>. Some people would see steam-powered ships. </p>
<p>But it’s really not until the summer of 1947 that people began to regularly speak of seeing flying objects that some attributed to extraterrestrials.</p>
<h2>What happened in 1947?</h2>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/410222/original/file-20210707-21-wemgmo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A grainy black and white photo showing a flying saucer in the sky." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/410222/original/file-20210707-21-wemgmo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/410222/original/file-20210707-21-wemgmo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=893&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410222/original/file-20210707-21-wemgmo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=893&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410222/original/file-20210707-21-wemgmo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=893&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410222/original/file-20210707-21-wemgmo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1122&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410222/original/file-20210707-21-wemgmo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1122&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410222/original/file-20210707-21-wemgmo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1122&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In the years following Arnold’s story, UFO sightings and reports – like this purported photo of a UFO from 1952 – exploded in number.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:PurportedUFO2.jpg">George Stock/Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Portrait-of-American-pilot-Kenneth-Arnold-1915-84-taken-by-the-photographer-of-the_fig1_304652761">pilot by the name of Kenneth Arnold</a> was flying his small plane near Mount Rainier in Washington state. As he was flying around he said he saw some sort of glimmer or shine that caught his eye and was concerned that maybe he was going to have a collision with another aircraft. When he looked, he saw what he described as <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Kenneth-Arnold">nine very odd-shaped vessels flying in formation</a>.</p>
<p>After Arnold landed, he reported his sightings to authorities at a nearby airport and eventually talked to some reporters. When a reporter asked Arnold to describe how the things moved, he said, “<a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/The_UFO_Files/PC_6or5kQ9EC?hl=en&gbpv=1&dq=kenneth+arnold+%22flew+like+a+saucer+would+if+you+skipped+it+across+water%22&pg=PA30&printsec=frontcover">they flew like a saucer would if you skipped it across water.</a>” Some very clever enterprising journalists came up with the headline “flying saucers” and from that point forward they were flying saucers – even though Arnold never uttered the phrase himself.</p>
<p>A Gallup poll six weeks after the event discovered that <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9780230361362_12">90% of Americans had heard the term flying saucer</a>. This was the beginning of the phenomenon that some call the flying saucer era and the contemporary idea of UFOs. </p>
<p>Within days other people in the country began reporting having seen <a href="http://www.project1947.com/fig/1947b.htm">similar things in the sky</a>. Within weeks the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Sign">U.S. Air Force decided to look into the reports</a>. Arnold’s story also triggered a lot of press interest and soon the international media were covering this story. It was a worldwide phenomenon within months.</p>
<h2>Who starts to look into UFOs?</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/410221/original/file-20210707-13-14il5p9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An old magazine cover showing a hand–drawn flying saucer." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/410221/original/file-20210707-13-14il5p9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/410221/original/file-20210707-13-14il5p9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=829&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410221/original/file-20210707-13-14il5p9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=829&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410221/original/file-20210707-13-14il5p9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=829&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410221/original/file-20210707-13-14il5p9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1042&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410221/original/file-20210707-13-14il5p9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1042&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410221/original/file-20210707-13-14il5p9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1042&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">By the ‘50s, UFO hobby groups began to emerge.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Amazing_Stories_October_1957.jpg#/media/File:Amazing_Stories_October_1957.jpg">Amazing Stories Magazine/Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Two things happened in parallel: First were government-sponsored investigations in the U.S., specifically within the Air Force. Starting in 1947 the Air Force <a href="https://www.archives.gov/research/military/air-force/ufos">set in motion a number of different projects</a> all basically interested in one question: Do UFOs represent a national security threat? The government wasn’t interested in a deep scientific analysis of these things.</p>
<p>On the other hand, from 1947 to 1950 you had a lot of the <a href="https://www.saturdaynightuforia.com/html/libraryufomagazinearticles.html">general public who were just utterly fascinated</a> with the mystery of flying saucers. What are they? Are they real? If they are real, who’s behind them? Some people threw around the idea of aliens, but that’s not really the major theory that people bought into. Most people – if they thought the sightings were real – believed they were either <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/14794012.2014.928032">secret weapons of the U.S. military or secret weapons or secret aircraft of the Soviets</a>.</p>
<p>So out of this fascination developed what you could call the equivalent of fan groups – flying saucer clubs. Those became the seeds of growth in the 1950s and 1960s for <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_UFO_organizations">UFO organizations</a> first at the local, then the <a href="http://www.nicap.org/papers/hall-IUR1994.htm">national</a> and then the <a href="https://www.encyclopedia.com/science/encyclopedias-almanacs-transcripts-and-maps/aerial-phenomena-research-organization-apro">international level</a>. </p>
<h2>How did government programs fit into the UFO ecosystem?</h2>
<p>A lot of what the Air Force did was behind closed doors and supposed to be clandestine. The government has <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-30943827">released files over many years</a> that show that a considerable number of UFO sightings were people seeing secret airplanes like the U2. It’s no surprise that the Air Force would try to keep strict control over what’s revealed to the public. </p>
<p>But that strict control is one of the many things that <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steven_M._Greer">fed conspiracy theories over the years</a>. The idea among UFO believers became “The government isn’t shooting straight with us. Somehow we’ve got to get these people to disclose all the information they know.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/410223/original/file-20210707-15-1op4nu4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A Navy aircraft video of a UFO." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/410223/original/file-20210707-15-1op4nu4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/410223/original/file-20210707-15-1op4nu4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410223/original/file-20210707-15-1op4nu4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410223/original/file-20210707-15-1op4nu4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410223/original/file-20210707-15-1op4nu4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=638&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410223/original/file-20210707-15-1op4nu4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=638&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410223/original/file-20210707-15-1op4nu4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=638&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In 2017, a number of videos and reports from former U.S. military personnel rekindled a fading interest in UFOs.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.navair.navy.mil/foia/documents">U.S. Navy</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What is the modern American perspective on UFOs?</h2>
<p>Up until the ‘90s the Cold War played a really fundamental formative role in how people in the U.S. imagined UFOs – both in terms of how we think about humanity’s prospects technologically, but also relating to the <a href="https://www.worldcat.org/title/watch-the-skies-a-chronicle-of-the-flying-saucer-myth/oclc/33474120&referer=brief_results">fears and anxieties surrounding the Cold War</a>. But when the Cold War ended, interest fell off. From the late 1990s into the early 2000s <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0963662515617706">media coverage was nominal</a>.</p>
<p>That all changed with the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/16/us/politics/pentagon-program-ufo-harry-reid.html">2017 revelations about the secret UFO project in the Pentagon</a>. This spurred on a resurgence of interest in UFOs. The way the media were talking about UFOs had lot of the same elements from before: Are these things alien? If they’re not alien, are they from our military or somebody else’s military? Are the people who were pushing the narrative and stories of sightings operating in good faith or are these con men? </p>
<p>In so many ways this was all really reminiscent of the 1940s and 1950s.</p>
<p>[<em>Get our best science, health and technology stories.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/science-editors-picks-71/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=science-best">Sign up for The Conversation’s science newsletter</a>.]</p>
<h2>Do you see a shift in how scientists think of UFOs?</h2>
<p>In my conversations with scientists I’ve been seeing some movement toward a willingness to say, “This stuff is <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-intelligence-report-on-ufos-no-aliens-but-government-transparency-and-desire-for-better-data-might-bring-science-to-the-ufo-world-163059">maybe worthy of looking into more seriously</a>.” The important change since the 1990s – specifically for astrophysicists and astronomers – has been the <a href="https://theconversation.com/nasas-tess-spacecraft-is-finding-hundreds-of-exoplanets-and-is-poised-to-find-thousands-more-122104">discovery of so many planets around other stars</a> that could possibly support life. </p>
<p>I’m excited by the prospect of deeper study – both as a phenomenon that needs to be investigated by physical scientists but also as a social and cultural phenomenon. Mystery breeds speculation, and the UFO phenomenon is not a puzzle that can be easily solved. The mystery part gives people an opportunity to ask big questions about not just humanity’s place in the universe, but about the limits of technology and knowledge. I think that’s why people keep returning to the question of UFOs.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/164128/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Greg Eghigian has received funding for his research on UFOs from the American Historical Association, the American Philosophical Society, NASA, and the Smithsonian Air and Space Museum.</span></em></p>The history of UFOs weaves together public fascination, government secrecy and cultural phenomena. Recent news and shifts in the government’s stance on UFOs are giving new life to the mystery.Greg Eghigian, Professor of History, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1636752021-07-01T10:10:28Z2021-07-01T10:10:28ZUS government UFO report: from shrouded history to a data–driven future – podcast<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/409129/original/file-20210630-17-1x5syyn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=178%2C146%2C1218%2C805&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Screenshot from a Depart of Defense video of an unidentified aerial phenomenon. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.navair.navy.mil/foia/sites/g/files/jejdrs566/files/2020-04/1%20-%20FLIR.mp4">US Department of Defense/US Navy</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In this episode of <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/the-conversation-weekly-98901">The Conversation Weekly</a> we look at the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence’s report on unidentified aerial phenomena and explore the cultural history and scientific taboo around UFOs. And three months after rebels killed the president of Chad in central Africa, we talk to experts about the balance of power there.</p>
<iframe src="https://embed.acast.com/60087127b9687759d637bade/60dc8ee702a6470012b996d6?cover=true" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay" width="100%" height="110"></iframe>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-561" class="tc-infographic" height="100" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/561/4fbbd099d631750693d02bac632430b71b37cd5f/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>When it finally dropped on June 25, the <a href="https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Prelimary-Assessment-UAP-20210625.pdf">report on unidentified aerial phenomena</a> didn’t mention the word extraterrestrial. And nobody had expected it to. Still, ufologists were excited that this official US government report might give them a signal or evidence of other-worldly explanations for mysterious sightings by navy pilots over the past few decades.</p>
<p>In this episode, Chris Impey, university distinguished professor of astronomy at the University of Arizona, talks us through what the government report actually reveals. And he explains why doing serious research into UFOs has been such a taboo for scientists fighting against the link between UFOs and conspiracy theories. “Guilt by association for a lot of scientists is just enough that they won’t want to go there,” Impey says. The report may move the needle a bit, he tells us, “but not substantially.” </p>
<p>Greg Eghigian, professor of history at Penn State University, gives us a cultural history of UFOs. He explains how the American obsession with them began in the late 1940s in the US and then spread around the world. “It’s always been global,” says Eghigian. “Different governments across the world have at different periods of time investigated this or had dedicated UFO desks.”</p>
<p>And in our second story (27m54s), we head to Chad in central Africa. When the country’s long-serving president, Idriss Déby was <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-56815708">killed suddenly</a> by rebels in April, his son, a general, took charge of a transitional military council promising to hold new elections within 18 months. </p>
<p>Line Engbo Gissel, associate professor of global political sociology at Roskilde University in Denmark and Troels Burchall Henningsen, assistant professor at the Royal Danish Defence College recently <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09557571.2020.1828281?journalCode=ccam20">published research</a> on how Chad’s political elite have retained their grip on power. They talk to us about why the legacy of this “gatekeeper politics” will <a href="https://theconversation.com/legacy-of-chads-gatekeeper-politics-lives-on-beyond-deby-and-carries-grave-risks-160295">live on beyond Déby</a>.</p>
<p>And Naomi Joseph, arts and culture editor at The Conversation in London, gives us some recommended reading (40m10s). </p>
<p>This episode of The Conversation Weekly was produced by Mend Mariwany and Gemma Ware, with sound design by Eloise Stevens. Our theme music is by Neeta Sarl. You can find us on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/TC_Audio">@TC_Audio</a>, on Instagram at <a href="https://www.instagram.com/theconversationdotcom/?hl=en">theconversationdotcom</a>. or via email on podcast@theconversation.com. You can also sign up to <a href="https://theconversation.com/newsletter?utm_campaign=PodcastTCWeekly&utm_content=newsletter&utm_source=podcast">The Conversation’s free daily email here</a>.</p>
<p>News clips in this episode are from <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rO_M0hLlJ-Q">CNBC News</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_ZeKQ6tSMc">NBC News</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2XPt0Kck21Y">CBS News,</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xI1m98uGNd8">Channel 4</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gWuS_7FL6cA">Channels Television</a> <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gWuS_7FL6cA">Network Africa</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YAMvgX_pMyE">Reu</a><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O5-r-hj8xQA">ters</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VipeVp1PTCc">France 24</a> <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNQNVu3efZw">English</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wzaq7Sr_qYA">RT</a> and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Wl9AtpxHXQ">France 24</a>. </p>
<p><em>You can listen to The Conversation Weekly via any of the apps listed above, our <a href="https://feeds.acast.com/public/shows/60087127b9687759d637bade">RSS feed</a>, or find out how else to <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-listen-to-the-conversations-podcasts-154131">listen here</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>This article has been updated to clarify that the report was produced by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/163675/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Plus, what’s happening in Chad, three months after rebels killed the president, Idriss Déby.Gemma Ware, Head of AudioDaniel Merino, Associate Breaking News Editor and Co-Host of The Conversation Weekly PodcastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1630592021-06-30T12:14:27Z2021-06-30T12:14:27ZUS intelligence report on UFOs: No aliens, but government transparency and desire for better data might bring science to the UFO world<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408956/original/file-20210629-23-49zsqh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=66%2C35%2C602%2C596&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The new government report describes 144 sightings of unidentified aerial phenomena.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.navair.navy.mil/foia/documents">U.S. Navy</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On June 25, 2021, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence released a much-anticipated <a href="https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Prelimary-Assessment-UAP-20210625.pdf">report on UFOs to Congress</a>. The military has rebranded unidentified flying objects as unidentified aerial phenomena – UAPs – in part to avoid the stigma that has been attached to claims of aliens visiting the Earth since the <a href="https://www.livescience.com/roswell-ufo-crash-what-really-happened.html">Roswell incident in 1947</a>. The report presents no convincing evidence that alien spacecraft have been spotted, but some of the data defy easy interpretation. </p>
<p>I’m a <a href="https://www.as.arizona.edu/people/faculty/chris-impey">professor of astronomy</a> who has written extensively on the <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/talking-about-life/696F47F802931AE9021CA72083313579">search for life</a> in the universe. I also teach a <a href="https://www.coursera.org/learn/astrobiology-exploring-other-worlds">free online class on astrobiology</a>. I do not believe that the new government report or any other sightings of UFOs in the past are proof of aliens visiting Earth. But the report is important because it opens the door for a serious look at UFOs. Specifically, it encourages the U.S. government to collect better data on UFOs, and I think the release of the report increases the chances that scientists will try to interpret that data. Historically, UFOs have felt off limits to mainstream science, but perhaps no more.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/rO_M0hLlJ-Q?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Three videos from the U.S. military sparked a recent surge in interest in UFOs.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/us-government-ufo-report-from-shrouded-history-to-a-data-driven-future-podcast-163675">US government UFO report: from shrouded history to a data–driven future – podcast</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What’s in the UFO report?</h2>
<p>The No. 1 thing the report focuses on is the lack of high-quality data. Here are the highlights from the <a href="https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Prelimary-Assessment-UAP-20210625.pdf">slender nine-page report</a>, covering a total of 144 UAP sightings from U.S. government sources between 2004 and 2021:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>“Limited data and inconsistent reporting are key challenges to evaluating UAP.” </p></li>
<li><p>Some observations “could be the result of sensor errors, spoofing, or observer misperception.”</p></li>
<li><p>“UAP clearly pose a safety of flight issue and may pose a challenge to U.S. national security.”</p></li>
<li><p>Of the 144 sightings, the task force was “able to identify one reported UAP with high confidence. In that case, we identified the object as a large, deflating balloon. The others remain unexplained.”</p></li>
<li><p>“Some UAP many be technologies deployed by China, Russia, another nation, or non-governmental entity.”</p></li>
</ul>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408950/original/file-20210629-11592-6d5ji7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="The front page of the report with a U.S. government logo and 'unclassified' listed at the top." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408950/original/file-20210629-11592-6d5ji7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408950/original/file-20210629-11592-6d5ji7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408950/original/file-20210629-11592-6d5ji7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408950/original/file-20210629-11592-6d5ji7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408950/original/file-20210629-11592-6d5ji7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=656&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408950/original/file-20210629-11592-6d5ji7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=656&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408950/original/file-20210629-11592-6d5ji7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=656&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Office of the Director of National Intelligence prepared the report for the Congressional Intelligence and Armed Services Committees.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Prelimary-Assessment-UAP-20210625.pdf">Office of the Director of National Intelligence</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>UFOs are taboo among scientists</h2>
<p>UFO means unidentified flying object. Nothing more, nothing less. You’d think scientists would enjoy the challenge of solving this puzzle. Instead, UFOs have been taboo for academic scientists to investigate, and so unexplained reports have not received the scrutiny they deserve.</p>
<p>One reason is that most scientists think there is <a href="http://www.fraknoi.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Responding-to-Claims-about-Alien-UFOs-2.pdf">less to most reports than meets the eye</a>, and the few who have dug deeply have mostly <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctt2005r2h">debunked the phenomenon</a>. <a href="http://www.ianridpath.com/ufo/astroufo1.htm">Over half of sightings can be attributed</a> to meteors, fireballs and the planet Venus. </p>
<p>Another reason for the scientific hesitance is that UFOs have been co-opted by popular culture. They are part of a landscape of conspiracy theories that includes accounts of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/01463370600878545">abduction by aliens</a> and <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/arts-culture/crop-circles-the-art-of-the-hoax-2524283/">crop circles</a>. Scientists worry about their professional reputations, and the association of UFOs with these supernatural stories causes most researchers to avoid the topic.</p>
<p>But some scientists have looked. In 1968, Edward U. Condon at the University of Colorado published the <a href="https://files.ncas.org/condon/">first major academic study of UFO sightings</a>. The Condon Report put a damper on further research when it found that “<a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/1725090">nothing has come from the study of UFOs in the past 21 years</a> that has added to scientific knowledge.”</p>
<p>However, a <a href="https://news.stanford.edu/pr/98/980629ufostudy.html">review in 1998</a> by a panel led by Peter Sturrock, a professor of applied physics at Stanford University, concluded that some sightings are accompanied by physical evidence that deserves scientific study. Sturrock also <a href="https://www.scientificexploration.org/docs/8/jse_08_2_sturrock.pdf">surveyed professional astronomers</a> and found that nearly half thought UFOs were worthy of scientific study, with higher interest among younger and more well-informed astronomers.</p>
<p>If astronomers are intrigued by UFOs – and believe some cases deserve study with academic rigor – what’s holding them back? A <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0963662515617706">history of mistrust</a> between ufologists and scientists hasn’t helped. And while UFO research has employed <a href="https://doi.org/10.1023/B:QUAS.0000015542.28438.41">some of the tools of the scientific method</a>, it has not had the core of skeptical, evidence-based reasoning that demarcates science from <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/what-is-pseudoscience/">pseudoscience</a>.</p>
<p>A search of 90,000 recent and current <a href="https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/">grants awarded</a> by the National Science Foundation finds none addressing UFOs or related phenomena. I’ve served on review panels for 35 years, and can imagine the reaction if such a proposal came up for peer review: raised eyebrows and a quick vote not to fund.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408955/original/file-20210629-28-ro64v4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A group of satellite dishes pointing in various directions." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408955/original/file-20210629-28-ro64v4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408955/original/file-20210629-28-ro64v4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=267&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408955/original/file-20210629-28-ro64v4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=267&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408955/original/file-20210629-28-ro64v4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=267&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408955/original/file-20210629-28-ro64v4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408955/original/file-20210629-28-ro64v4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408955/original/file-20210629-28-ro64v4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Radio telescopes like the Allen Telescope Array seen here scan the sky looking for signs of intelligent life in the universe.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Allen_Telescope_Array_-_Flickr_-_brewbooks_(11).jpg#/media/File:Allen_Telescope_Array_-_Flickr_-_brewbooks_(11).jpg">Brewbooks/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A decadeslong search for aliens</h2>
<p>While the scientific community has almost entirely avoided engaging with UFOs, a much more mainstream search for intelligent aliens and their technology has been going on for decades.</p>
<p>The search is motivated by the fact that astronomers have, to date, discovered <a href="https://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/">over 4,400 planets orbiting other stars</a>. Called exoplanets, some are close to the Earth’s mass and at just the right distance from their stars to potentially have water on their surfaces – meaning they might be habitable.</p>
<p>Astronomers estimate that there are <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/05/world/nasa-300-million-habitable-planets-intl-hnk-scli-scn/index.html">300 million habitable worlds</a> in the Milky Way galaxy alone, and each one is a <a href="https://www.seti.org/drake-equation-index">potential opportunity</a> for life to develop and for intelligence and technology to emerge. Indeed, most astronomers think it very unlikely that <a href="https://exoplanets.nasa.gov/news/1350/are-we-alone-in-the-universe-revisiting-the-drake-equation/">humans are the only or the first advanced civilization</a>. </p>
<p>This confidence has fueled an active <a href="https://www.seti.org/">search for extraterrestrial intelligence</a>, known as SETI. It has been unsuccessful so far. As a result, researchers have recast the question “Are we alone?” to “Where are the aliens?” The absence of evidence for intelligent aliens is called the <a href="https://www.seti.org/fermi-paradox-0">Fermi paradox</a>. First articulated by the physicist Enrico Fermi, it’s a paradox because advanced civilizations should be spread throughout the galaxy, yet we see no sign of their existence. </p>
<p>The SETI activity has not been immune from scientists’ <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/461316a">criticism</a>. It was starved of federal funding for decades and recently has gotten most of its support from <a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/09/how-big-money-powering-massive-hunt-alien-intelligence">private sources</a>. However, in 2020, NASA <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/06/20/nasa-funds-research-alien-technological-civilizations/3224063001/">resumed funding for SETI</a>, and the new NASA administrator wants researchers to <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/04/tech/ufos-nasa-study-scn/index.html">pursue the topic of UFOs</a>. </p>
<p>In this context, the intelligence report is welcome. The report draws <a href="https://apnews.com/article/technology-government-and-politics-f5f24502d97072fd4bef34b6fe36c81d">few concrete conclusions</a> about UFOs and avoids any reference to aliens or extraterrestrial spacecraft. However, it notes the importance of destigmatizing UFOs so that more pilots report what they see. It also sets a goal of moving from anecdotal observations to standardized and scientific data collection. Time will tell if this is enough to draw scientists into the effort, but the transparency to publish the report at all reverses a long history of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/16/us/politics/pentagon-program-ufo-harry-reid.html">secrecy surrounding U.S. government reports on UFOs</a>.</p>
<p>I don’t see any convincing evidence of alien spacecraft, but as a curious scientist, I hope the subset of UFO sightings that are truly unexplained gets closer study. Scientists are unlikely to weigh in if their skepticism generates attacks from “true believers” or they get ostracized by their colleagues. Meanwhile, the truth is still out there.</p>
<p><em>This article has been updated to clarify that the report was produced by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.</em></p>
<p>[<em>Understand new developments in science, health and technology, each week.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/science-editors-picks-71/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=science-understand">Subscribe to The Conversation’s science newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/163059/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Impey receives funding from the National Science Foundation. </span></em></p>A new nine-page report, requested by Congress, doesn’t say what the 144 UFO sightings from 2004 to 2021 are, but does say that the government wants to learn more.Chris Impey, University Distinguished Professor of Astronomy, University of ArizonaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1631852021-06-29T13:53:43Z2021-06-29T13:53:43ZThe truth is still out there: why the current UFO craze may be a problem of intelligence failings<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408865/original/file-20210629-16-1g8c4h9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=3%2C0%2C2041%2C1152&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Unidentified aerial phenomena remain a mystery.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">US Department of Defense/US Navy</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s safe to say that UFOs, now branded UAPs, are back. In recent years, <a href="https://theconversation.com/pentagon-report-says-ufos-cant-be-explained-and-this-admission-is-a-big-deal-161806">concerns have grown</a> that supposed physics-defying craft are penetrating US airspace. This could represent a technological breakthrough by foreign competitors or something else entirely. But many people will no doubt have found the recent release of the Pentagon’s <a href="https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Prelimary-Assessment-UAP-20210625.pdf">highly anticipated UAP (unidentified aerial phenomena) report</a> to be underwhelming. </p>
<p>Its results are inconclusive, despite the fact that it is the alleged weight of the data that led Congress to request the report <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/23/senators-ufo-government-reports-336021">in the first place</a>. This raises serious questions as to how the intelligence process became so muddied, and why UFOs have rocketed up Washington’s agenda. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/pentagon-report-says-ufos-cant-be-explained-and-this-admission-is-a-big-deal-161806">Pentagon report says UFOs can't be explained, and this admission is a big deal</a>
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<p>While it puts many hypotheses forward, <a href="https://www.dni.gov/index.php/newsroom/reports-publications/reports-publications-2021/item/2223-preliminary-assessment-unidentified-aerial-phenomena">the report</a> concedes that analysts cannot explain at least 143 out of 144 reported sightings. The problem, as they acknowledge, is that they lack the data to draw firm conclusions. The issue is not simply about whether the extraordinary things that have been reported belong to Russia, China or the Klingons, but more about whether anything extraordinary is even happening at all.</p>
<p>To an extent, this is unsurprising. In practically every UAP incident reported, nobody can agree whether something extraordinary – a physics-bending craft, for example – was actually witnessed. <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/559433-the-worlds-most-passionate-ufo-skeptic-versus-the-government">Sceptics argue</a> that factors such as misreporting, technical and human error, or optical illusions, can explain much of what is happening in the skies.</p>
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<p><em>Listen to experts talk about the cultural history and scientific taboo around UFOs in The Conversation Weekly podcast.</em></p>
<iframe src="https://embed.acast.com/60087127b9687759d637bade/60dc8ee702a6470012b996d6?cover=true" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay" width="100%" height="110"></iframe>
<p><em>Find other ways to listen to <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-government-ufo-report-from-shrouded-history-to-a-data-driven-future-podcast-163675">The Conversation Weekly podcast here</a>.</em></p>
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<h2>Nimitz encounter</h2>
<p>This is personified in the <a href="https://youtu.be/aB8zcAttP1E?t=4266">2004 Nimitz encounter</a> where two pilots spotted a white object shaped like a “Tic Tac”. The erratic craft reportedly responded to the pilots’ movements, before disappearing in a blink of an eye. It reappeared sometime later, where a third pilot recorded footage that would eventually make its way to the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/26/us/politics/ufo-sightings-navy-pilots.html">New York Times</a> in 2017.</p>
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<p>The encounter was <a href="https://youtu.be/bub_FjxsGQk?t=690">allegedly</a> investigated by the Pentagon’s AATIP (<a href="https://qz.com/1158998/the-pentagon-confirms-its-22-million-ufo-investigation-program/">Advanced Aerospace Threat Identification Program</a>), which has since been renamed the <a href="https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Releases/Release/Article/2314065/establishment-of-unidentified-aerial-phenomena-task-force/">UAP Task Force</a> – the body now responsible for the UAP report. And it gained traction thanks to the openness of one of its star witnesses, pilot Commander David Fravor, who told ABC News that the Tic Tac seemed <a href="https://time.com/5070962/navy-pilot-ufo-california-not-from-this-world/">“not from this world”</a>. </p>
<p>The case, however, seems riddled with issues of reporting and human testimony. Fravor has dismissed claims by other crew from the Nimitz carrier group, <a href="https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/research/a29771548/navy-ufo-witnesses-tell-truth/">including allegations that mysterious officials</a> requisitioned crucial data. And the other pilot at the time of the first encounter, Alex Dietrich, claimed that her visual on the Tic Tac lasted around <a href="https://twitter.com/DietrichVFA41/status/1404527229636382722">ten seconds</a> – a stark comparison to Fravor’s claim of five minutes. </p>
<p>The point is that memory and misperception affect even the best-trained pilots. Notable sceptic, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/11/i-study-ufos-and-i-dont-believe-the-alien-hype-heres-why">Mick West</a>, argues that optical illusions can explain away much of the pilot and video testimony, and the report itself concedes that “observer misperception” cannot be ruled out in some sightings.</p>
<p>The Nimitz case, as with other UAP incidents, was supported by radar and sensor data – but this is yet to be revealed to the public. And it bears consideration that even the most expensive technical systems are not infallible. As the report acknowledges, cases where UAP’s exhibited “unusual flight characteristics” may also be the result of sensor errors or “<a href="https://www.emsopedia.org/entries/spoofing-in-radar-ecm/">spoofing</a>” – a known technical countermeasure that <a href="https://blog.bliley.com/radar-jamming-deception-electronic-warfare">tricks radar systems</a> into displaying inaccurate information.</p>
<h2>Need to know</h2>
<p>These challenges filter down to analysts, who face an overwhelming task. In fact, UAP analysts are relying on intelligence collection systems to answer what is essentially a scientific problem. As the report notes, US military sensors are “designed to fulfill a specific mission”, and are not “generally suited for identifying UAP”. </p>
<p>It’s more likely that understanding the problem will require a myriad of technical instruments supported by scientific collaboration and peer review, which runs to the contrary of intelligence’s “need to know”. If there are any extraordinary answers to be had, they are more likely to come from the <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/04/tech/ufos-nasa-study-scn/index.html">recent involvement of Nasa</a>, than the closed-door world of the UAP task force. </p>
<p>What’s more, faced with limited data, analysts are vulnerable to their own cognitive biases. AATIP was originally contracted to a company whose founder, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/16/us/politics/pentagon-program-ufo-harry-reid.html">Robert Bigelow</a>, is well known for his paranormal enthusiasm. And AATIP’s former director, Luis Elizondo, continues to push the narrative that UAPs are real craft and possibly of <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/c/embed/81412dca-98be-409b-8f73-cbb81881145f">non-human origin</a>.</p>
<p>And then there’s the issue of inflation. The official, Christopher Mellon, who first set events in motion by leaking the 2017 footage to the New York Times, admits that he and Elizondo wanted to put UAPs on the <a href="https://youtu.be/ZBtMbBPzqHY?t=697">“national security agenda”</a>. Policymakers should be led by refined intelligence assessments, not the personal hunches of analysts and officials whose opinions are shaped by mediocre data.</p>
<h2>Bomber gap</h2>
<p>Indeed, current events are not dissimilar to the <a href="https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/russia/bomber-gap.htm">cold war’s “bomber gap”</a>, when Air Force analysts vastly inflated Soviet nuclear bomber estimates to secure greater Congressional funding. As a result of Elizondo and Mellon’s efforts, UAPs are now on the agenda, whether they exist or not. Even the report calls for “analytical, collection, and resource investment”.</p>
<p>But as Congress demands further investigation, it should also demand greater accountability. Authenticated (albeit mundane) military footage of UAPs continues to be <a href="https://thedebrief.org/pentagon-confirms-leaked-video-showing-transmedium-ufo-is-authentic/">leaked to UFO film makers</a>. These ongoing efforts by military insiders to influence policy, without proper context or analysis, reflect a worrying breakdown of the intelligence cycle.</p>
<p>Finally, there’s the issue of politicisation. AATIP was originally established by the former Senate majority leader Harry Reid <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/28/politics/harry-reid-ufos-pentagon/index.html">under advice from his close friend Bigelow</a>. Reid’s enthusiasm for UFOs is well documented, but it suggests that the process was muddied from the start. If the UAP Task Force is expanded, a healthy distance will need to be maintained between policymakers and the people who draw up their assessments.</p>
<p>As it stands, the UAP issue seems like a microcosm of everything that can go wrong with intelligence. If the UAP report suggests anything, it’s that pilots are struggling to make sense of increasingly noisy skies, that military sensors cannot always be relied upon, and that the Pentagon’s analysts are out of their depth. </p>
<p>It also shows that unless the Department of Defense obtains clear evidence of an undeniable craft operating in undeniably extraordinary ways, Congress, and the public, should remain sceptical of UAP proponents.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/163185/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kyle Cunliffe does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The recent Pentagon report has more questions than answers when it comes to UFOs. Here’s why that’s not surprising.Kyle Cunliffe, Fixed-term lecturer, School of Arts and Media, University of SalfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1634832021-06-29T02:29:45Z2021-06-29T02:29:45ZFrom UFOs to COVID conspiracy theories, we all struggle with the ‘truth out there’<p>For ufologists the US government’s eagerly anticipated <a href="https://www.dni.gov/index.php/newsroom/reports-publications/reports-publications-2021/item/2223-preliminary-assessment-unidentified-aerial-phenomena">report</a> of “unidentified aerial phenomena” may be a major disappointment. It goes further than any previous report <a href="https://theconversation.com/pentagon-report-says-ufos-cant-be-explained-and-this-admission-is-a-big-deal-161806">in admitting unknowns</a>, though conspiracy theorists will likely dismiss it as a cover-up. </p>
<p>But they aren’t alone in tending to dismiss anything that jars with their accepted narrative.</p>
<p>Take the “lab leak theory”. In January, for example, the Washington Post not only called the idea that COVID-19 was man-made a “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/29/experts-debunk-fringe-theory-linking-chinas-coronavirus-weapons-research/">debunked fringe theory</a>”. It also called the theory it originated from the Wuhan Institute of Virology a “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/02/16/tom-cotton-coronavirus-conspiracy/">disputed fringe theory</a>”.</p>
<p>Facebook banned claims the virus was made in a lab for being <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2021/may/27/facebook-lifts-ban-on-posts-claiming-covid-19-was-man-made">false and debunked</a> in February. It has now reversed that ruling, with US president Joe Biden <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/05/26/statement-by-president-joe-biden-on-the-investigation-into-the-origins-of-covid-19/">ordering his intelligence experts</a> to “bring us closer to a definitive conclusion” by the end of August. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/conspiracy-theories-on-the-right-cancel-culture-on-the-left-how-political-legitimacy-came-under-threat-in-2020-150844">Conspiracy theories on the right, cancel culture on the left: how political legitimacy came under threat in 2020</a>
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<p>The issue has been complicated by hyper-partisan media conflating Facebook’s ban with censorship of the lab-leak theory. But many also <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30418-9/fulltext">dismissed the lab-leak theory</a> too easily by conflating it with other conspiracy theories. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-covid-19-lab-leak-hypothesis-is-plausible-because-accidents-happen-i-should-know-162430">The COVID-19 lab-leak hypothesis is plausible because accidents happen. I should know</a>
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<p>We’re all prone to accepting one narrative and sticking to it, no matter the evidence. This problem isn’t just “out there”. Behavioural research offers some lessons for all us to keep front and centre.</p>
<h2>Seeing what we want to see</h2>
<p>Even if we pride ourselves on being independently minded we can still fall prey to cognitive biases. </p>
<p>Part of this is due to overconfidence in our <a href="https://hbr.org/2018/12/research-when-overconfidence-is-an-asset-and-when-its-a-liability">own decision-making skills</a>. </p>
<p>This isn’t just the result of the phenomenon known as the <a href="https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/basics/dunning-kruger-effect">Dunning-Kruger effect</a> – in which we tend to overestimate our competence in areas in which we are incompetent. Highly intelligent people are also susceptible to believing highly irrational ideas, as demonstrated by the list of Nobel prize-winning scientists who have embraced <a href="https://skepticalinquirer.org/2020/05/the-nobel-disease-when-intelligence-fails-to-protect-against-irrationality/">scientifically questionable beliefs</a>.</p>
<p>Part of it also has to do with believing what we <a href="https://medium.com/from-the-exosphere/kevin-jenkins-wishful-thinking-could-kill-your-business-6f02b5322a84">want to be true</a>. </p>
<p>We settle on most of our opinions through nothing better than <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2005/01/16/books/review/blink-hunch-power.html">snap judgement</a> or instincts. Our internal “press secretary” – a mental module that convinces us of our own infallibility – then justifies our reasons for holding those opinions after the fact. </p>
<p>Behavioural scientists call this <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/psychology/motivated-reasoning">motivated reasoning</a> – when your personal preferences cloud your grasp on reality.</p>
<p>As Malcolm Gladwell writes in his book Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking (Little, Brown, 2005): “Our selection decisions are a good deal less rational than we think.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Protesters who believe COVID-19 is a hoax." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408780/original/file-20210629-13-14uqqul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408780/original/file-20210629-13-14uqqul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408780/original/file-20210629-13-14uqqul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408780/original/file-20210629-13-14uqqul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408780/original/file-20210629-13-14uqqul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408780/original/file-20210629-13-14uqqul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408780/original/file-20210629-13-14uqqul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Most of us are overconfident about our own decision-making skills.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">lyas Tayfun Salci/Shutterstock</span></span>
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<h2>How long is a piece of string? You tell me</h2>
<p>One cognitive bias that is especially amplified by social media is good old-fashioned conformism. </p>
<p>The potency of conformist thinking was graphically demonstrated by psychologist
Solomon Asch in his classic <a href="https://cynlibsoc.com/clsology/pdf/people-will-conform.pdf">1956 study</a> showing we can even disregard the evidence of our own eyes when it contradicts the majority view. </p>
<p>Asch assembled groups of participants and had them judge which of three numbered lines had the same length as a target line. </p>
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<img alt="Solomon Asch's conformity experiment line comparison." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408577/original/file-20210628-19-1e7c4l1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408577/original/file-20210628-19-1e7c4l1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408577/original/file-20210628-19-1e7c4l1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408577/original/file-20210628-19-1e7c4l1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408577/original/file-20210628-19-1e7c4l1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408577/original/file-20210628-19-1e7c4l1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408577/original/file-20210628-19-1e7c4l1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Solomon Asch’s conformity experiment line comparison.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Psychology-asch-1951.png">Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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<p>Which numbered line is the same length as the one on the left?
The answer should be easy. But in Asch’s group only one person was a real participant. The six others were “stooges”, instructed to sometimes give the same, patently wrong answer before the subject of the experiment answered. </p>
<p>The result: about a third of the time subjects went along with the majority view, though it was clearly wrong. The painful lesson: we are social creatures, swayed by the group, even willing to sacrifice the truth just to fit in. </p>
<h2>Locked in the echo chamber</h2>
<p>Facebook, Twitter and other social media sites can reinforce all the above instincts through creating “echo chambers” that validate what we chose to believe. </p>
<p>Exposure to different ideas does not fit well with the economics of online media – in which platforms, and content creators on those platforms, fight for limited attention by appealing to preferences and prejudices. </p>
<p>We enjoy echo chambers. </p>
<p>According to psychologist Jonathan Haidt, we appear to be born with a “<a href="https://onbeing.org/programs/jonathan-haidt-the-psychology-of-self-righteousness-oct2017/">self-righteousness gene</a>” – an inherent need to be right. We are more prone to defend our opinions by criticising others. We find comfort in validation. </p>
<p>Once we have made our opinion known to others, we are doggedly reluctant to change course. Seeming consistent can become <a href="https://hbr.org/1987/03/knowing-when-to-pull-the-plug">more important than seeming right</a>, so we will go to great lengths to shore up opinions that come under scrutiny. </p>
<p>These foibles might be endearing if they didn’t have such serious implications. Believing in misinformation is an undeniable problem. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-misinformation-is-a-global-issue-but-which-myth-you-fall-for-likely-depends-on-where-you-live-143352">Coronavirus misinformation is a global issue, but which myth you fall for likely depends on where you live</a>
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<p>But we are going to need a different way to deal with conspiracy theories than simply trying to ban them. Seeking to enforce a single accepted narrative is not the solution. </p>
<p>If Facebook or mainstream media are the arbiters of who gets heard and who does not, then we will be pushed more towards our own filter bubbles, and conspiracy theorists towards theirs.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/163483/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The difference between conspiratorial thinking and believing the official narrative isn’t necessarily as big as you might you think.Meg Elkins, Senior Lecturer with School of Economics, Finance and Marketing and Behavioural Business Lab Member, RMIT UniversityRobert Hoffmann, Professor of Economics and Chair of Behavioural Business Lab, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1618062021-06-28T02:23:17Z2021-06-28T02:23:17ZPentagon report says UFOs can’t be explained, and this admission is a big deal<p>A report from the US task force dedicated to investigating UFOs — or, in the official jargon, UAPs (Unidentified Aerial Phenomena) — has neither confirmed nor rejected the idea such sightings could indicate alien visits to Earth.</p>
<p>On Friday June 25, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) released its eagerly awaited <a href="https://www.dni.gov/index.php/newsroom/press-releases/press-releases-2021/item/2223">unclassified intelligence report</a>, titled “Preliminary Assessment: Unidentified Aerial Phenomena”.</p>
<p>The document is a brief nine-page version of a larger classified report provided to the Congressional Services and Armed Services Committees. It assesses “the threat posed by unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP) and the progress the Department of Defence <a href="https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Releases/Release/Article/2314065/establishment-of-unidentified-aerial-phenomena-task-force/">Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Task Force</a> has made in understanding this threat”.</p>
<p>The report certainly does not, as many were hoping, conclude UFOs are alien spacecraft. Rather, it shows the task force hasn’t made much progress since first being set up ten months ago. Perhaps this is unsurprising, given its task. </p>
<p>However, the task force’s very existence would have been unthinkable to many people just one year ago. It’s unprecedented to see the broader policy shift towards the acknowledgement of UFOs as real, anomalous physical phenomena that are worthy of extended scientific and military analysis.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408564/original/file-20210628-15-10iuecm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408564/original/file-20210628-15-10iuecm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408564/original/file-20210628-15-10iuecm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408564/original/file-20210628-15-10iuecm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408564/original/file-20210628-15-10iuecm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408564/original/file-20210628-15-10iuecm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408564/original/file-20210628-15-10iuecm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408564/original/file-20210628-15-10iuecm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In April of last year, the US Department of Defense released three ‘UFO’ videos taken by Navy pilots.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Department of Defense/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Seemingly advanced technologies</h2>
<p>The report withholds specific details of its data sample, which consists of 144 UFO reports made mostly by military aviators between 2004 and 2021. Its bombshell finding is that “a handful of UAP appear to demonstrate advanced technology”.</p>
<p>This “handful” — 21 of the 144 reports — represents classic UFO enigmas. These objects:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>appeared to remain stationary in winds aloft, move against the wind, manoeuvre abruptly, or move at considerable speed, without discernible means of propulsion. In a small number of cases, military aircraft systems processed radio frequency (RF) energy associated with UAP sightings.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>These characteristics indicate some UAP may be intelligently controlled (because they aren’t blown around by the wind) and electromagnetic (as they emit radio frequencies). </p>
<p>In March, Former Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe told Fox News some reports describe objects “<a href="https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/research/a35904670/pentagon-ufo-reports-objects-breaking-sound-barrier-without-sonic-boom/">travelling at speeds that exceed the sound barrier without a sonic boom</a>”. Sonic booms are sound waves generated by objects breaking the sound barrier.</p>
<p>No <em>known</em> aircraft can travel faster than sound without creating a sonic boom. NASA is currently developing “<a href="https://www.nasa.gov/image-feature/ames/nasa-supercomputers-visualize-quieter-supersonic-flight">quiet supersonic technology</a>”, which may allow planes to break the sound barrier while issuing a subdued “sonic thump”.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/do-aliens-exist-we-asked-five-experts-161811">Do aliens exist? We asked five experts</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jun/25/ufo-report-pentagon-security-experts-reaction">Some</a> have claimed the objects are probably secret, advanced Russian or Chinese aircraft. However, global aerospace development has failed to match the flight characteristics of objects reported since the late 1940s. And it seems counterproductive to repeatedly fly secret aircraft into an adversary’s airspace where they can be documented.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/a9Jli0D1uEM?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<h2>How did we get here?</h2>
<p>The report’s release is a profoundly important moment in the history of the UFO mystery, largely because of its institutional context. To fully appreciate what this moment might mean for the future of UFO studies, we have to understand how the UFO problem has been historically “institutionalised”.</p>
<p>In 1966, the US Air Force was facing increasing public pressure to resolve the UFO problem. Its effort to do so, then known as Project Blue Book, had become an organisational burden and a public relations problem.</p>
<p>It funded a two-year scientific study of UFOs based at the University of Colorado, headed by prominent physicist Edward Condon. The findings, published in 1969 as the Final Report on the Scientific Study of Unidentified Flying Objects, allowed the Air Force to end its UFO investigations. </p>
<p>Condon concluded nothing had come from the study of UFOs in the past 21 years that added to scientific knowledge. He also said “further extensive study of UFOs probably cannot be justified in the expectation that science will be advanced thereby”.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/221899a0">Nature</a>, one of the world’s most reputable scientific journals, described the Condon Report as a “sledgehammer for nuts”. But by then the Air Force had collected 12,618 reports as part of Project Blue Book, of which 701 sightings were categorised as “unidentified”.</p>
<p>Unlike the new Pentagon report, the Condon Report didn’t find any UFOs that appeared to demonstrate advanced technology. The most problematic cases were resolved by being categorised ambiguously. Here’s one example: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>This unusual sighting should therefore be assigned to the category of some almost certainly natural phenomenon which is so rare that it apparently has never been reported before or since.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>With this strategic category in the toolkit, there was no need to acknowledge seemingly advanced technology exhibited by UAPs. Indeed, they were deliberately filtered from institutional knowledge.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-us-military-has-officially-published-three-ufo-videos-why-doesnt-anybody-seem-to-care-137498">The US military has officially published three UFO videos. Why doesn't anybody seem to care?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Recovering from ‘institutional forgetting’</h2>
<p>For most of their postwar history, UFO reports have been regarded by <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0090591708317902">state institutions</a> as knowledge out of place, or “<a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03085147.2011.637335?casa_token=Pnh6UEBjAjYAAAAA%3Aip-biUlRCq6M7P-dt83F7AQpso78Wgb_0cVoLPLWJYhujSpl4MaS3kz3MTEaW8DMyl6FH-yUbocLRqg">information pollution</a>” — something to be excluded, ignored or forgotten.</p>
<p>The Pentagon’s UAP task force represents an abrupt reversal of this longstanding organisational policy. UFO reports, made primarily by military personnel, are no longer pollutants. They are now important data with national security implications.</p>
<p>That said, they do still represent “uncomfortable knowledge”. As the late Oxford University anthropologist Steve Rayner <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03085147.2011.637335?casa_token=KX72WiCiY3kAAAAA%3ASedfoQoBaB2ob1gBOEZ5rSPOunl9aJL_DUR2v48ul8VlBy_KU0yEiC5QnhEWrDSYVclteGJoQ4L_">observed</a>, knowledge can be “uncomfortable” for institutions in two ways.</p>
<p>First, Rayner said, “acknowledging potential information by admitting it to the realm of what is ‘known’ may undermine the organisational principles of a society or organisation”.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, he said “not admitting such information may also have serious deleterious effects on institutions, either directly or by making them prone to criticism from other parts of society that they ‘ought’ to have known”. Both aspects describe the institutional context of UFO information.</p>
<p>The US Department of Defence has confirmed UFOs threaten flight safety, and potentially, national security. In doing so, it has exposed a weakness in its organisational principles. It has admitted it’s not very good at knowing what UFOs are. </p>
<p>It also faces the criticism that <a href="https://www.osapublishing.org/josa/abstract.cfm?uri=josa-43-4-311">seven decades</a> after UFOs first appeared on the radar, it <em>ought</em> to know what they are. The new Pentagon report doesn’t compel us to accept the reality of alien visitation. But it does compel us to take UFOs seriously.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/161806/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adam Dodd does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Some UFO sightings appear to demonstrate ‘advanced technology’. The Pentagon has confirmed some threaten flight safety, and potentially national security.Adam Dodd, Tutor, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1622692021-06-07T15:44:51Z2021-06-07T15:44:51ZUFOs: how to calculate the odds that an alien spaceship has been spotted<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/404858/original/file-20210607-27-5ij746.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=44%2C0%2C4900%2C3044&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The evidence so far isn't very specific.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/amazing-fantastic-background-extraterrestrial-aliens-spaceship-718238302">IgorZh/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The US military <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-57355192">has released</a> previously classified photos and films related to unidentified flying object (UFO) sightings, which mostly show something blurry moving strangely. Still, I hear that a friend of a friend has gone from thinking there’s a 1% chance that UFOs are aliens to now believing it is 50%. Is he rational?</p>
<p>People are <a href="https://astronomy.stackexchange.com/questions/tagged/identify-this-object">constantly seeing</a> things in the sky they don’t understand. The vast majority are aeroplanes, satellites, weather balloons, clouds, rocket launches, auroras, optical reflections and so on. But for some sightings, there’s no known explanation. The problem is that people jump to the conclusion “unknown = aliens”. And when you think about it, this is fairly odd. Why not angels? </p>
<p>Anyway, I like to do maths instead. The <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes%27_theorem">Bayes formula</a> (below), a mainstay of statistics, gives the probability (Pr) of something, given some evidence.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Image of the Bayesian formula." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/404772/original/file-20210607-23-2oywyc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/404772/original/file-20210607-23-2oywyc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=79&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404772/original/file-20210607-23-2oywyc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=79&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404772/original/file-20210607-23-2oywyc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=79&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404772/original/file-20210607-23-2oywyc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=100&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404772/original/file-20210607-23-2oywyc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=100&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404772/original/file-20210607-23-2oywyc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=100&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Spelled out, it says that the probability that UFOs are aliens given some evidence is equal to how likely it is that the evidence would appear if UFOs really were aliens, times how likely it is that there are aliens. That needs to be divided by how likely the actual evidence is, which is notoriously difficult to work out.</p>
<p>But what we are really interested in is if the evidence tells us we should believe in aliens compared to not believing in aliens. We can do this by dividing the equation above with the counterpart for UFOs not being aliens: </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Image of the Bayesian formula." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/404773/original/file-20210607-50508-1ts19z2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/404773/original/file-20210607-50508-1ts19z2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=72&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404773/original/file-20210607-50508-1ts19z2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=72&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404773/original/file-20210607-50508-1ts19z2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=72&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404773/original/file-20210607-50508-1ts19z2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=91&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404773/original/file-20210607-50508-1ts19z2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=91&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404773/original/file-20210607-50508-1ts19z2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=91&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When we do this, we also get rid of that pesky factor for how probable the evidence is. The equation now shows how likely it is that UFOs are aliens compared to how likely it is that they are not – after looking at the footage. The result will be one if the options are equally likely, and high if aliens are the stronger bet. It tells us how we should update our beliefs based on new evidence. </p>
<p>There are two factors in the equation. One (second bracket) is how likely we think aliens are. Some might say 50:50, making this factor one, while others <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.02404">may make it very low</a>, like 10<sup>-23</sup>. This is a statement of belief based on knowledge of the world (using for example the famous <a href="https://theconversation.com/where-is-everybody-doing-the-maths-on-extraterrestrial-life-3390">Drake equation</a>). </p>
<p>This needs to be multiplied by another factor (first bracket), often called the Bayes factor. It denotes how specific the evidence we see is for aliens v no aliens. If I meet a little green blob claiming to be from Epsilon Eridani, that is relatively specific (but could still somewhat be explained by a prank or me being mad). In this case, the factor may be much bigger than 1 and I get to shift towards thinking there are aliens. </p>
<p>If I see a mysterious blob of light in the sky that could be aliens but could also be a lot of other things, then the factor would not be much different from 1 – the evidence is as specific for aliens as it is for no aliens, and I don’t get much change in belief. </p>
<p>In other words, specificity is hugely important. Weird and unknown things may happen, but if the lights could equally well be faeries, intrusions from the fifth dimension, swamp gas, Chinese drones, sapient octopuses, or anything else, the Bayes factor will still be close to 1. That the world is strange is not evidence for aliens.</p>
<h2>My verdict</h2>
<p>The latest UFO revelations from the US government doesn’t make me update in the direction of aliens much. Sure, there is lots of weird footage. But it could be explained by many other things: there are no green blobs demanding to be taken to our leader. There’s not even a photo of an alien. Given that <a href="https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/full/10.1089/ast.2019.2149">earlier research</a> also has made me think the universe is pretty empty, I end up with a very low personal probability estimate of UFOs being aliens.</p>
<p>Here’s my calculation. I start with assuming that aliens visiting is pretty unlikely – I place it somewhere around one in a billion. Why? Because I think the probability of intelligent life per planet <a href="https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/full/10.1089/ast.2019.2149">is really low</a>, and if there were any out there, it would probably <a href="http://www.aleph.se/papers/Spamming%20the%20universe.pdf">spread on</a> a cosmic scale. Indeed, that we haven’t been paved over already is an <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2102.01522">important piece of evidence</a>. </p>
<p>As for the specificity of the evidence, I accept that weird things show up, but none of it looks particular for aliens. So my Bayes factor is at best 2 or so (and I think that is too much, actually). So I end up giving a one in 500 million chance to UFOs being aliens after looking at the footage.</p>
<p>One should, however, <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.02404">recognise the great uncertainty</a> here: that one in a billion estimate is based on arguments that <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/0810.5515">could be wrong</a> and are debatable. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Artist's concept of a UFO shining on a male standing on the mountain" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/404856/original/file-20210607-27-1npwbjv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=207%2C44%2C3942%2C2747&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/404856/original/file-20210607-27-1npwbjv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404856/original/file-20210607-27-1npwbjv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404856/original/file-20210607-27-1npwbjv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404856/original/file-20210607-27-1npwbjv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404856/original/file-20210607-27-1npwbjv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404856/original/file-20210607-27-1npwbjv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Specific enough?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/ufo-shines-on-male-standing-mountain-1470669512">WeAre/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Now imagine I see every TV channel showing footage of a green blob demanding an audience with the UN Secretary General. If it was a real alien, the probability of the footage would be 1. But the probability that it is a <a href="https://www.gwern.net/Littlewood">super-elaborate prank</a> or that I had a psychotic break is maybe 1 in 1,000 (<a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5811263/">psychosis is far more common</a> than many think). So by dividing 1 by 1/000, I would get a Bayes factor of 1,000 – boosting my estimate by a factor of 1,000. When I then multiply that, per the equation, by the 1 in a billion probability of aliens visiting, I get a total probability of two in a million. </p>
<p>This would not be enough to think it must be real. But it would be alarming enough to check if my friends are seeing the same thing. Surely they can’t all go mad at the same time – that would be even less likely. If they agree I would boost my estimate by a few more orders of magnitude, to maybe 1/10. I would also check for evidence that it isn’t a super-prank. </p>
<p>As for the current evidence, what would convince me otherwise? More specific evidence, not just blurry lights moving apparently fast. Science did not believe in meteorites until trustworthy, multiple witnesses <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/1803-rain-rocks-helped-establish-existence-meteorites-180963017/">brought in rocks</a> found to be unknown minerals (a good Bayes factor), and our understanding of the solar system allowed for asteroids.</p>
<p>I suspect actual evidence for visits from extraterrestrial intelligence will be hard to miss. Trying to explain away the weakness of current evidence as aliens being cleverly stealthy does not make them more likely since it makes the evidence unspecific. The search will no doubt go on, but we should look for specific things, not blurry ones.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/162269/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anders Sandberg receives funding from the ERC and Open Philanthropy. He is a member of the UK SETI Research Network.</span></em></p>One in a million or one in ten? Mathematics can help us work out the odds of whether recent sightings of UFOs are really alien spaceships.Anders Sandberg, James Martin Research Fellow, Future of Humanity Institute & Oxford Martin School, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1504982020-12-04T13:29:46Z2020-12-04T13:29:46ZI’m an astronomer and I think aliens may be out there – but UFO sightings aren’t persuasive<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/370906/original/file-20201123-17-tvrix2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=45%2C55%2C5932%2C4525&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Many people who say they have seen UFOs are either dog walkers or smokers</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/ufo-royalty-free-image/96417466?adppopup=true">Aaron Foster/THeImage Bank/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>If intelligent aliens visit the Earth, it would be one of the most profound events in human history.</p>
<p>Surveys show that <a href="https://blogs.chapman.edu/wilkinson/2018/10/16/paranormal-america-2018/">nearly half of Americans</a> believe that aliens have visited the Earth, either in the ancient past or recently. That percentage has been increasing. Belief in alien visitation is greater than belief that Bigfoot is a real creature, but less than belief that places can be haunted by spirits.</p>
<p>Scientists dismiss these beliefs as not representing real physical phenomena. They don’t deny the existence of intelligent aliens. But they set a high bar for proof that we’ve been visited by creatures from another star system. As <a href="https://bigthink.com/personal-growth/how-the-sagan-standard-can-help-you-make-better-decisions?rebelltitem=1#rebelltitem1">Carl Sagan said</a>, “Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.”</p>
<p>I’m a <a href="https://www.as.arizona.edu/people/faculty/chris-impey">professor of astronomy</a> who has written extensively on the <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/talking-about-life/696F47F802931AE9021CA72083313579">search for life</a> in the universe. I also teach a <a href="https://www.coursera.org/learn/astrobiology-exploring-other-worlds">free online class on astrobiology</a>. Full disclosure: I have not personally seen a UFO.</p>
<h2>Unidentified flying objects</h2>
<p>UFO means unidentified flying object. Nothing more, nothing less.</p>
<p>There’s a long history of UFO sightings. <a href="https://www.airspacemag.com/daily-planet/secret-government-program-track-ufos-its-not-first-180967597/">Air Force studies of UFOs</a> have been going on since the 1940s. In the United States, “ground zero” for UFOs occurred in 1947 in Roswell, New Mexico. The fact that the <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smithsonian-institution/in-1947-high-altitude-balloon-crash-landed-roswell-aliens-never-left-180963917/">Roswell incident was soon explained</a> as the crash landing of a military high-altitude balloon didn’t stem a tide of new sightings. The majority of UFOs appear to people in the United States. It’s curious that <a href="https://www.esri.com/videos/watch?videoid=lAopNJMbFEI&title=animated-maps-a-century-of-ufo-sightings">Asia and Africa have so few sightings</a> despite their large populations, and even more surprising that the sightings stop at the Canadian and Mexican borders. </p>
<p>Most UFOs have mundane explanations. <a href="http://www.ianridpath.com/ufo/astroufo1.htm">Over half can be attributed</a> to meteors, fireballs and the planet Venus. Such bright objects are familiar to astronomers but are often not recognized by members of the public. Reports of visits from UFOs inexplicably <a href="https://www.statista.com/chart/8452/ufo-sightings-are-at-record-heights/">peaked about six years ago</a>. </p>
<p>Many people who say they have seen UFOs are either <a href="https://www.discovermagazine.com/the-sciences/reports-of-rising-ufo-sightings-are-greatly-exaggerated">dog walkers or smokers</a>. Why? Because they’re outside the most. <a href="https://www.economist.com/united-states/2014/06/28/everything-you-need-to-know-about-ufos">Sightings concentrate in evening hours</a>, particularly on Fridays, when many people are relaxing with one or more drinks.</p>
<p>A few people, like former NASA employee <a href="http://www.jamesoberg.com/">James Oberg,</a> have the fortitude to track down and find <a href="https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/how-one-man-has-explained-almost-every-internet-ufo-theory">conventional explanations for decades of UFO sightings</a>. Most astronomers find the <a href="https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/a-word-about-those-ufo-videos/">hypothesis of alien visits implausible</a>, so they concentrate their energy on the exciting scientific search for life beyond the Earth. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Most UFO sightings have been in the United States.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Are we alone?</h2>
<p>While UFOs continue to swirl in the <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/will-the-new-york-times-ever-stop-reporting-on-ufos/">popular culture</a>, scientists are trying to answer the big question that is raised by UFOs: Are we alone? </p>
<p>Astronomers have discovered <a href="https://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/">over 4,000 exoplanets</a>, or planets orbiting other stars, a number that doubles every two years. Some of these exoplanets are considered habitable, since they are close to the Earth’s mass and at the right distance from their stars to have water on their surfaces. The nearest of these habitable planets are <a href="http://phl.upr.edu/projects/habitable-exoplanets-catalog">less than 20 light years away</a>, in our cosmic “back yard.” Extrapolating from these results leads to a projection of <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/05/world/nasa-300-million-habitable-planets-intl-hnk-scli-scn/index.html">300 million habitable worlds</a> in our galaxy. Each of these Earth-like planets is a potential biological experiment, and there have been billions of years since they formed for life to develop and for intelligence and technology to emerge.</p>
<p>Astronomers are very confident there is life beyond the Earth. As astronomer and ace exoplanet-hunter <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2015/07/21/scientists-believe-theres-other-life-in-the-universe-why-havent-we-found-it-yet/">Geoff Marcy</a>, puts it, “The universe is apparently bulging at the seams with the ingredients of biology.” There are many steps in the progression from Earths with suitable conditions for life to intelligent aliens hopping from star to star. Astronomers use the <a href="https://www.seti.org/drake-equation-index">Drake Equation</a> to estimate the number of technological alien civilizations in our galaxy. There are many uncertainties in the Drake Equation, but interpreting it in the light of recent exoplanet discoveries makes it <a href="https://exoplanets.nasa.gov/news/1350/are-we-alone-in-the-universe-revisiting-the-drake-equation/">very unlikely that we are the only, or the first, advanced civilization</a>. </p>
<p>This confidence has fueled an active <a href="https://www.seti.org/">search for intelligent life</a>, which has been unsuccessful so far. So researchers have recast the question “Are we alone?” to “Where are they?” </p>
<p>The absence of evidence for intelligent aliens is called the <a href="https://www.seti.org/seti-institute/project/fermi-paradox">Fermi Paradox</a>. Even if intelligent aliens do exist, there are a <a href="https://www.space.com/37157-possible-reasons-we-havent-found-aliens.html">number of reasons</a> why we might not have found them and they might not have found us. Scientists do not discount the idea of aliens. But they aren’t convinced by the evidence to date because it is unreliable, or because there are so many other more mundane explanations.</p>
<h2>Modern myth and religion</h2>
<p>UFOs are part of the landscape of conspiracy theories, including accounts of <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01463370600878545">abduction by aliens</a> and <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/arts-culture/crop-circles-the-art-of-the-hoax-2524283/">crop circles created by aliens</a>. I remain skeptical that intelligent beings with vastly superior technology would travel trillion of miles just to press down our wheat.</p>
<p>It’s useful to consider UFOs as a <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/0015587X.2016.1220588">cultural phenomenon</a>. <a href="https://uncw.edu/par/faculty/faculty-pasulka.html">Diana Pasulka,</a> a professor at the University of North Carolina, notes that myths and religions are both means for dealing with unimaginable experiences. To my mind, UFOs have become a kind of <a href="https://www.vox.com/culture/2019/6/4/18632778/ufo-aliens-american-cosmic-diana-pasulka">new American religion</a>.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>So no, I don’t think belief in UFOs is crazy, because some flying objects are unidentified, and the existence of intelligent aliens is scientifically plausible. </p>
<p>But a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0191886997800189">study of young adults</a> did find that UFO belief is associated with schizotypal personality, a tendency toward social anxiety, paranoid ideas and transient psychosis. If you believe in UFOs, you might look at what other unconventional beliefs you have. </p>
<p>I’m not signing on to the UFO “religion,” so call me an <a href="https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/should-scientists-take-ufos-and-ghosts-more-seriously/">agnostic</a>. I recall the aphorism <a href="https://www.skeptic.com/insight/open-mind-brains-fall-out-maxim-adage-aphorism/">popularized by Carl Sagan</a>, “It pays to keep an open mind, but not so open your brains fall out.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/150498/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Impey receives funding from the National Science Foundation.</span></em></p>Scientists are not convinced by the current evidence of UFOs. That doesn’t mean that they don’t exist. But have Americans’ belief in UFOs gone from science to a new religion?Chris Impey, University Distinguished Professor of Astronomy, University of ArizonaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1374982020-05-08T01:58:00Z2020-05-08T01:58:00ZThe US military has officially published three UFO videos. Why doesn’t anybody seem to care?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/332994/original/file-20200506-49589-jke9mi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1271%2C1276&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">US Department of Defense</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>On April 27, 2020, the US Department of Defense issued a <a href="https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Releases/Release/Article/2165713/statement-by-the-department-of-defense-on-the-release-of-historical-navy-videos/">public statement</a> authorising the release of three “UFO” videos taken by US Navy pilots.</p>
<p>The footage appears to depict airborne, heat-emitting objects with no visible wings, fuselage or exhaust, performing aerodynamically in ways that no known aircraft can achieve. The DoD doesn’t use the terms “unidentified flying object” or “UFO” but does clearly state “the aerial phenomena observed in the videos remain characterized as ‘unidentified’.”</p>
<p>Thoughts about what UFOs are vary widely – from illusions to alien spacecraft. However, a workable, conservative definition is: “intelligently-controlled airborne objects not apparently made by humans”. </p>
<p>Only a small fraction of UFO reports collected globally over the past seven decades seem to describe such objects, but the Navy footage appears to fit the bill. Whether such objects are vehicles of alien invasion or not, their mere presence would seem to indicate a national security threat, which is partly what makes the Pentagon’s recent announcement so puzzling.</p>
<p>This is the first time the Pentagon has publicly confirmed the authenticity of UFO footage. It should have been a momentous announcement, but it seems to have barely moved the needle on the UFO controversy. Why? </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/are-we-alone-the-question-is-worthy-of-serious-scientific-study-98843">Are we alone? The question is worthy of serious scientific study</a>
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<h2>The announcement is new, but the videos are not</h2>
<p>The three grainy, monochrome infrared videos – one taken in November 2004, the other two in January 2015 – had already been leaked online, in 2007 and 2017, respectively. They also gained international attention after the New York Times <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/16/us/politics/pentagon-program-ufo-harry-reid.html">published them</a> as part of a December 2017 exposé on the Pentagon’s secret UFO research program, the so-called “Advanced Aerospace Threat Identification Program”.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">The three videos released by the US Department of Defense show ‘unidentified aerial phenomena’.</span></figcaption>
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<p>That program was allegedly headed by Luis Elizondo, who claims to have been instrumental in the 2017 leaks, although his background has been <a href="https://theintercept.com/2019/06/01/ufo-unidentified-history-channel-luis-elizondo-pentagon/">credibly called into question</a>. After resigning from the DoD, Elizondo immediately joined <a href="https://home.tothestarsacademy.com/">To the Stars Academy of Arts and Science</a>, a UFO research collective founded by former Blink 182 frontman Tom DeLonge. </p>
<p>In September 2019, Joseph Gradisher, claiming the title of “spokesman for the deputy chief of naval operations for information warfare,” confirmed the authenticity of all three videos in an email to a well-known UFO blog called <a href="https://www.theblackvault.com/documentarchive/u-s-navy-confirms-videos-depict-unidentified-aerial-phenomena-not-cleared-for-public-release/">The Black Vault</a>. This development was quickly <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2019/09/18/those-ufo-videos-are-real-navy-says-please-stop-saying-ufo/">reported</a> by the Washington Post.</p>
<p>The UFO footage in question, then, has appeared less like a shot out of the blue, and more like an echo in the night. Its gradual, staggered confirmation by the DoD mirrors the entrance of the footage itself into the public consciousness. </p>
<p>Whether this happened by accident or design, we may never know. As the technoculture critic Richard Thieme has astutely <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?id=5IeqXwbLYJkC&printsec=frontcover#v=onepage&q&f=false">observed</a>, “the UFO world is a hall of mirrors. The UFO world on the internet is a simulation of a hall of mirrors.”</p>
<h2>Not ordinary, but not entirely invented</h2>
<p>Despite the maddening refractions of the UFO rabbit hole, we can be certain of one thing. The modern figure of the UFO maintains an uneasy residence on “the margins of the real”. </p>
<p>UFOs are clearly not ordinary objects, like rocks, chairs or smartphones. But neither are they utterly immaterial products of the cultural imagination, like werewolves, vampires or fairies.</p>
<p>If, as historian of science M. Norton Wise has <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/501101?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents">argued</a>, “to make something visible is to make it real, or to try to”, then the question of whether UFOs exist or not largely hinges on debates about representation and authenticity.</p>
<p>When it comes to phenomena that may not fit into our framework of what is real – phenomena like UFOs – what kind of representations of them will we regard as authentic?</p>
<p>More specifically, what would an authentic representation of a UFO look like? Who would have the authority to afford it that authenticity? And how would that authentication proceed? </p>
<h2>What would ‘legitimate’ UFO footage look like?</h2>
<p>In her widely influential 1977 polemic, On Photography, Susan Sontag <a href="https://www.nybooks.com/articles/1977/06/23/photography-unlimited/">observed</a> “the images that have virtually unlimited authority in a modern society are mainly photographic images; and the scope of that authority stems from the properties peculiar to images taken by cameras”. </p>
<p>Within this paradigm, even the poorest photograph is always more “legitimate” than the most refined and accurate painting. The Navy UFO footage is presented as something more than a photograph, however. It is offered as professional data, collected by highly skilled practitioners. </p>
<p>Even if we fail to fully understand everything on the plane’s Advanced Targeting Forward-Looking Infrared (ATFLIR) display, or even how the video was made, it seems data-driven and authentic – an impression reiterated by the grainy, monochrome quality of the image itself.</p>
<p>As observers, we are led to believe that, despite the somewhat visually disappointing resolution, we are watching authentic footage. In a way, the visual disappointment helps to qualify the videos as candidates for legitimacy.</p>
<p>Even though few of us know what such a video “should” look like, we assume that, since UFO encounters are spontaneous and surprising, footage is likely to be somewhat less than satisfactory. </p>
<p>These expectations present a dilemma. If an image of a UFO is too clear it is likely to be read as obviously fake, but if it’s too blurry it could be anything.</p>
<p>A superficial reading of the Navy UFO footage would likely lead to the latter evaluation. But given the nature of the footage (it is infrared, not technically photographic, so establishes the heat signature of the objects depicted), and the institutional context (the Pentagon is not known for producing and distributing fake UFO videos), it’s hard to avoid concluding the footage shows genuine physical anomalies. If that’s the case, it would be worthy of serious scientific and military attention, both of which currently seem absent. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-are-people-starting-to-believe-in-ufos-again-61717">Why are people starting to believe in UFOs again?</a>
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<h2>‘A hell of a video’</h2>
<p>UFOs can be difficult and uncomfortable to think about. As I have argued <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14777622.2018.1433409">elsewhere</a>, one symptom of that difficulty is that individuals and institutions maintain their own ignorance of the situation.</p>
<p>A persistent trope in Western UFO mythology is that every American president is briefed on the reality of the situation on taking office. The current president and commander-in-chief of the US Armed Forces, Donald Trump, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-china-exclusive/exclusive-trump-says-china-wants-him-to-lose-his-bid-for-re-election-idUSKBN22C01F">commented</a> on the recently released footage: “I just wonder if it’s real. That’s a hell of a video.” </p>
<p>It was a rare unifying statement from a notoriously divisive and antagonistic president, perhaps encapsulating the most likely public reaction to this latest instalment in the UFO mystery: just wonder.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/137498/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adam Dodd does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A recent statement about “unidentified aerial phenomena” from the Pentagon has provoked surprisingly little public response.Adam Dodd, Tutor, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.