tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/umbrella-movement-72282/articlesUmbrella Movement – The Conversation2021-01-08T01:14:33Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1527552021-01-08T01:14:33Z2021-01-08T01:14:33ZWith mass arrests, running for office in Hong Kong is now not only futile, it can be criminal<p>Nearly overshadowed by the chaos in the US this week was a dramatic escalation of the crackdown on pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong. </p>
<p>Authorities <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-06/over-50-hong-kong-activists-arrested-for-breaching-security-law/13035878">arrested more than 50 pro-democracy figures</a> in early morning raids under the territory’s six-month-old national security law. The opposition lawmakers, activists and lawyers were accused of subversion for holding primaries for pro-democracy candidates for Hong Kong elections.</p>
<p>The Beijing-drafted law has previously been used to target <a href="https://theconversation.com/hong-kong-activists-now-face-a-choice-stay-silent-or-flee-the-city-the-world-must-give-them-a-path-to-safety-141880">protesters</a> and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/killing-the-chicken-to-scare-the-monkey-what-jimmy-lais-arrest-means-for-hong-kongs-independent-media-144206">independent media</a> in Hong Kong, but this week’s mass arrests marked a sobering turning point for the city.</p>
<p>They make political participation in Hong Kong not just futile but dangerous, and are likely to render the Legislative Council a rubber stamp along the lines of the National People’s Congress in Beijing, which has never challenged an initiative of China’s ruling party.</p>
<p>Britain’s foreign secretary, Dominic Raab, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/china-accused-of-deliberately-misleading-the-world-over-hong-kong-20210107-p56s9a.html">responded with outrage</a>, saying China</p>
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<p>deliberately misled the world about the true purpose of the national security law, which is being used to crush dissent and opposing political views.</p>
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<h2>Opposition politics now considered ‘subversion’</h2>
<p>Those arrested were all linked to informal primaries convened by pro-democracy parties last year ahead of Legislative Council elections, which were ultimately postponed.</p>
<p>At the time, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/14/hong-kong-primaries-china-declares-pro-democracy-polls-illegal">Beijing labelled the primaries “illegal”</a> and Hong Kong authorities said they would investigate whether the opposition’s plan to win a legislative majority that could veto government initiatives violated the national security law. The law provides for penalties up to life imprisonment.</p>
<p>It is unsurprising Beijing views grassroots political organisation with suspicion. Its authoritarian political system precludes any challenge to the Communist Party’s rule.</p>
<p>In Hong Kong, only half of the legislature’s seats are elected by universal suffrage; the others are reserved for members of trades and industries. But it has still been possible for opposition figures to win election and exercise their rights to vote and, where numbers permit, veto actions.</p>
<p>The fact the Hong Kong authorities now classify such acts as “subversion of state power” confirms the national security law has <a href="https://ssrn.com/abstract=3749674">redrawn Hong Kong’s constitutional landscape</a>. Its enforcement is playing out according to the most pessimistic forecasts.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-fear-hong-kong-will-become-just-another-chinese-city-an-interview-with-martin-lee-grandfather-of-democracy-124635">'We fear Hong Kong will become just another Chinese city': an interview with Martin Lee, grandfather of democracy</a>
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<h2>Steady erosion of rights</h2>
<p>While Hongkongers nominally enjoy a wide range of rights under the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-49633862">Basic Law</a>, the outline of which was negotiated with Britain before the handover in 1997, some have come under severe pressure following the passage of the security law. These include freedom of speech, assembly and now electoral rights.</p>
<p>A key point of contention has been the progression to full democracy <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-29454385">promised in the Basic Law</a> but repeatedly withheld by Beijing. Chinese authorities have persistently misinterpreted the idea of Hong Kong self-government as a challenge to central authority and territorial integrity.</p>
<p>After the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/30/-sp-hong-kong-umbrella-revolution-pro-democracy-protests">2014 Umbrella Movement</a>, the Hong Kong government told young democracy advocates to take their cause off the streets and into politics. But after many did so with remarkable success, that door has now been slammed shut.</p>
<p>In addition to aggressively prosecuting pro-democracy protesters, the Beijing and Hong Kong governments have orchestrated the disqualification of many pro-democracy candidates and elected officials in recent years. This <a href="https://www.afr.com/world/asia/critics-round-on-hong-kong-s-expulsion-of-pro-democracy-mps-20201112-p56dv3">culminated</a> in the arbitrary removal last November of four sitting legislators, which triggered the resignation of the 15 remaining opposition members.</p>
<p>Around two-thirds of those arrested this week were former legislators or current district councillors. Other prominent opposition figures and members of civil society groups were also targeted. Police also <a href="https://hongkongfp.com/2021/01/06/breaking-over-50-hong-kong-democrats-arrested-under-security-law-over-2020-legislative-primaries/">reportedly</a> seized documents from media and polling organisations.</p>
<p>Benny Tai, a longtime opposition figure who was among those arrested, <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/3116729/national-security-law-hong-kong-opposition-lawmakers">said</a>:</p>
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<p>Hong Kong has entered a cold winter, the wind is strong and cold.</p>
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<h2>Why the world hasn’t done more</h2>
<p>With rights and freedoms diminishing under Beijing’s vast national security apparatus, the outlook for Hong Kong is indeed bleak.</p>
<p>Hong Kong’s judiciary has been a bulwark against executive overreach, but it has been criticised by all sides for its decisions in political cases. </p>
<p>Its jurisdiction over national security matters is also constrained: judges are vetted by the executive government and can only apply, not interpret, the law. Cases can also be transferred to mainland courts.</p>
<p>The retiring chief justice recently <a href="https://hongkongfp.com/2021/01/05/retiring-top-judge-pleas-to-maintain-hong-kongs-judicial-independence/">pleaded</a> for Hong Kong’s judicial independence to be respected, but the government’s <a href="https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3100499/carrie-lams-stance-separation-powers-hong-kong-self-contradictory">fallacious</a> insistence that Hong Kong, like China, has no separation of powers is one of several causes for concern as the baton passes to a new top judge.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/hong-kong-activists-now-face-a-choice-stay-silent-or-flee-the-city-the-world-must-give-them-a-path-to-safety-141880">Hong Kong activists now face a choice: stay silent, or flee the city. The world must give them a path to safety</a>
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<p>Beijing has learned the lessons of the Tiananmen Square crackdown and sensibly opted to bring Hong Kong to heel by <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2018/05/lawfare-waged-by-the-hong-kong-government-is-crushing-the-hopes-of-democrats/">gradually escalating the authoritarian use of the law</a>, rather than a military crackdown.</p>
<p>This makes the likelihood of international intervention — always a dim prospect — practically negligible.</p>
<p>Western democracies have <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/china-accused-of-deliberately-misleading-the-world-over-hong-kong-20210107-p56s9a.html">criticised</a> the erosion of Hong Kong’s democratic principles and rule of law, and Hongkongers can expect <a href="https://theconversation.com/hong-kong-china-crackdown-is-likely-to-boost-migration-to-uk-152766">easier pathways to residency</a> in some of those countries, but China’s economic power will deter most governments from doing more.</p>
<p>This should not mask the fact that true political repression is taking place in Hong Kong. Key opposition figures have been <a href="https://www.chinadailyhk.com/articles/215/123/223/1522804643621.html">vilified</a> by pro-establishment media and harassed by law enforcement, leading many to flee overseas. Some have had their assets subsequently <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/07/exiled-hong-kong-legislator-calls-for-inquiry-after-hsbc-freezes-bank-account">frozen</a> by a vindictive government.</p>
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<p>The Chinese government’s approach to Hong Kong is consistent with its more assertive approach internationally — it is <a href="https://theconversation.com/behind-chinas-newly-aggressive-diplomacy-wolf-warriors-ready-to-fight-back-139028">aggressively pursuing its own interests</a> without apparent regard for the reputational cost.</p>
<p>Once the international community understands how China plays the game, governments can formulate diplomatic and economic policies to deter bad conduct and protect their own national interests, along with the interests of others who fall within China’s sphere of influence.</p>
<p>However, such is China’s determination to crush dissent and opposition that <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/31/china-hong-kong-security-law-american-citizen-exiles">anyone, anywhere in the world</a> who advocates for such policies can be charged under Hong Kong’s national security law.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/heavy-hand-of-china-is-prompting-fears-for-hong-kongs-future-as-a-major-business-hub-150107">Heavy hand of China is prompting fears for Hong Kong's future as a major business hub</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brendan Clift receives funding from an Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship.</span></em></p>Britain accused China of deliberately misleading the world after the arrest of 50 pro-democracy figures under Hong Kong’s new national security law.Brendan Clift, Teaching Fellow and PhD candidate, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1223822019-08-26T20:00:21Z2019-08-26T20:00:21ZLike ‘shooting water’: why the Hong Kong government must accept that compromise is the only way forward<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/289395/original/file-20190826-8868-s3nvkl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">As the violence continues to escalate in Hong Kong, Chief Executive Carrie Lam hasn't signalled she is willing to seriously negotiate with the protesters.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jerome Favre/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Hong Kong protest movement is not deescalating – nor will it. Having battled for 12 weeks, this multi-million-person movement has lasted much longer than the unsuccessful 79-day <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/30/-sp-hong-kong-umbrella-revolution-pro-democracy-protests">Umbrella protests in 2014</a>.</p>
<p>This is because protesters believe this is their last chance to protect the <a href="https://theconversation.com/hong-kong-why-the-one-country-two-systems-model-is-on-its-last-legs-118960">“one country, two systems” model</a> that came into effect after Hong Kong’s 1997 handover to China and also expand the scope of the democracy in the city.</p>
<p>Yet, despite the enormous, peaceful marches, along with the more militant protesters who have <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-12/hong-kong-airport-cancels-flights-as-protests-continue/11406806">shut down the airport</a> and engaged in <a href="https://www.news.com.au/world/asia/police-protesters-skirmish-in-hong-kong-after-march/news-story/a0d530087d15c4632bb7e0084ecf8fe9">repeated battles with police</a>, Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam has remained unmoved.</p>
<p>This dynamic is hard for Western governments to understand. If these protests were happening in a democratic society, the government would likely seek to enter into concession bargaining with the protesters, knowing that compromise and negotiation are core strategies for deescalating tensions. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/trust-me-im-an-expert-why-the-hong-kong-protesters-feel-they-have-nothing-to-lose-122031">Trust Me, I’m An Expert: Why the Hong Kong protesters feel they have nothing to lose</a>
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<p>This has not happened in Hong Kong. At her regular Friday press conferences, Lam neither acknowledges nor engages in any discussions about the protesters’ <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2019/08/13/asia/hong-kong-airport-protest-explained-hnk-intl/index.html">five key demands</a>, including the formal withdrawal of the extradition bill that initially sparked the protests back in June.</p>
<p>It raises two questions - why isn’t this movement slowing down, and what will Lam, or Beijing, eventually do in response? </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Carrie Lam evading questions about her inability to formally withdraw the extradition bill.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>A resilient movement</h2>
<p>The Hong Kong protesters practice a strategy called “<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-hong-kong-protesters-have-turned-militant-and-more-strategic-and-this-unnerves-beijing-121106">being water</a>”. The <a href="https://www.scmp.com/culture/film-tv/article/2155586/how-bruce-lee-classic-quote-be-water-fictional-us-tv-series-came-be">phrase was first used by martial arts star Bruce Lee</a>, and it means building a movement that is fluid. </p>
<p>As one protest leader described it to me in Hong Kong,</p>
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<p>we flow to where the needs or energy lies, and leave where it’s not working.</p>
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<p>This is the approach behind the apparently spontaneous protests all over the city - from the airport, to the New Territories, to Hong Kong Island. But they aren’t spontaneous at all - the ideas for the demonstrations are deliberated on <a href="https://lihkg.com/category/1">LIHKG</a>, a Reddit-style website where anyone can post an idea and have it debated and voted up or down by other protesters. </p>
<p>The movement has great solidarity across it, despite the presence of sometimes militant tactics. This, too, is hard to understand in the West, as most assume the radically different tactics by the largely older, more peaceful weekend protesters and the younger, more militant faction is likely to lead to a split. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-hong-kong-protesters-have-turned-militant-and-more-strategic-and-this-unnerves-beijing-121106">The Hong Kong protesters have turned militant and more strategic – and this unnerves Beijing</a>
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<p>What many don’t see is that the peaceful wing and the more militant youthful wing deeply respect each other’s roles. During the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/18/hong-kong-huge-rally-china-condemns-us-gross-interference">1.7 million-person march on August 18</a>, for instance, some suggested there should be an occupation of police headquarters. Yet, this idea was voted down on LIHKG because most said it would undermine the peaceful role the rally was designed to serve. </p>
<p>There are some tensions, of course. During <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-protests/hong-kong-police-arrest-36-youngest-aged-12-after-running-battles-with-protesters-idUSKCN1VG01H">Sunday’s clashes with police</a>, there was some criticism after a photo emerged of a protester brandishing a BB gun. But overall, the movement has largely stuck together.</p>
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<p>This is exactly what the protesters didn’t do during Umbrella. When a more militant arm emerged during those protests, it was criticised by the older generation. The split meant that the movement was incapable of making decisions, including negotiating an end to the occupation. The movement became isolated, leaving it vulnerable to attack. It lost support from the Hong Kong people.</p>
<p>The other cohesive element this time around is the recognition that the “one country, two systems” model that ensures certain rights and freedoms for Hong Kong residents until 2047 is <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-protests-explainer/explainer-hong-kongs-borrowed-time-worry-about-2047-hangs-over-protests-idUSKCN1VD0S6">increasingly under threat</a>.</p>
<p>While previous generations of Hong Kong democratic leaders drew their energy from collective anger over the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, the current generation fears living as adults within the People’s Republic of China. </p>
<p>The 2047 timeline has been brought forward to 2019, and the fight for a democratic Hong Kong is now. </p>
<h2>Lam’s reluctance to negotiate</h2>
<p>So what does Carrie Lam – and her backers in Beijing – do in response to that?</p>
<p>Last week, Lam instigated a so-called “listening process”. But protesters accused her of being disingenuous. Her first act <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/3024230/chief-executive-carrie-lam-pressed-range-hong-kong-leaders">involved listening to her allies and members of her cabinet</a>. Even so, several pro-Beijing supporters suggested she withdraw the extradition bill and consider an inquiry into accusations of police brutality.</p>
<p>But Lam hasn’t shifted. And this begs the question - what autonomy does she have? If Hong Kong has its own “separate system”, then negotiations with the protesters on questions related to that system should be seen as an important political step. </p>
<p>Many protesters fear the lack of momentum on negotiations reflects the extent to which Hong Kong’s system is under threat. And this, in turn, affirms the need to continue protesting.</p>
<p>Instead of prioritising real dialogue, the government’s response has been an escalation of force. <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/hong-kong-shot-fired-water-cannon-deployed-after-petrol-bomb-attack/a-50157881">On Sunday</a>, we saw water cannons fired into crowds for the first time and live ammunition shot into the air. Beijing has also amassed large convoys of military vehicles at the border in recent weeks. </p>
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<span class="caption">The government’s escalating response to the protesters: fight water with water.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jerome Favre/EPA</span></span>
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<h2>Is another Tiananmen in the offing?</h2>
<p>The internet is wild with rumours about “another Tiananmen”. And, in many ways, that is the purpose of the tanks on the border. Their presence provokes great fear. It raises the stakes for any protester. </p>
<p>This kind of fear also circulated during the Umbrella movement. I interviewed many protest leaders back then who said they went to the streets prepared to die for Hong Kong. </p>
<p>That said, a military incursion in a place as large as Hong Kong would be gravely difficult. Making it even more challenging is the fact it is hard to shoot water, which is akin to taking aim at a guerrilla army instead of people standing in a square. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/beijing-is-moving-to-stamp-out-the-hong-kong-protests-but-it-may-have-already-lost-the-city-for-good-121815">Beijing is moving to stamp out the Hong Kong protests – but it may have already lost the city for good</a>
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<p>And, it’s important to remember that even the military crackdown on the Tiananmen protesters was a process. First, the government implemented curfews in late April in 1989, followed by martial law in late May. The tanks were finally deployed on June 4. </p>
<p>A more likely response from the government in Hong Kong is an intensification of the police response to the protesters. There will be more water cannons, more rubber bullets. Chinese military and police might also be deployed to support the Hong Kong police on the ground. It’s a kind of military engagement, but done through the Hong Kong system.</p>
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<p>There will also likely be more attacks on the protesters’ digital tools. Telegram, Whatsapp and LIHKG may be targeted with cyber attacks or temporarily shut down - turning the water off at its source. </p>
<p>The government will also ramp up its use of face recognition tools to identify the protesters to use in future prosecutions. The protesters are aware of this possibility and have begun <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-24/hong-kong-protests-smart-lampposts-cut-down-surveillance-fears/11445606">removing “smart lamp posts” and their cameras</a> at the site of recent protests.</p>
<p>No one knows what will happen in Hong Kong - not the government, not Beijing, not the protesters. The fluid dynamic of the protests is unprecedented. </p>
<p>The protesters are young, but highly experienced after having participated in the 2014 Umbrella movement. They are also motivated to continue fighting for what they believe is the future of their city. </p>
<p>Lam has deeply underestimated their momentum and the enormous levels of support they have across all segments of society. The protests will not stop until a pathway for a stronger democracy is on the table. Western governments can either help make that pathway happen through diplomatic interventions, or watch as the movement faces increasingly violent repression.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/122382/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amanda Tattersall receives funding from Halloran Trust.</span></em></p>After weekend, another spasm of violence in Hong Kong. Why isn’t the protest movement petering out after 12 weeks, and what will the government eventually do in response?Amanda Tattersall, Postdoc in Urban Geography and Research Lead at Sydney Policy Lab. Host of ChangeMakers Podcast., University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1220312019-08-22T07:04:54Z2019-08-22T07:04:54ZTrust Me, I’m An Expert: Why the Hong Kong protesters feel they have nothing to lose<p>Last weekend, hundreds of thousands of people again took to the streets in Hong Kong to protest against the government – the <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/3023331/three-nights-tear-gas-free-protests-hong-kongs-anti">11th straight weekend</a> of demonstrations that began in June over a proposed extradition bill.</p>
<p>But after more than two months of increasingly violent clashes between demonstrators and the police, this protest was peaceful. No tear gas was fired.</p>
<p>China expert Graeme Smith, one of the hosts of <a href="https://omny.fm/shows/the-little-red-podcast/playlists/podcast">The Little Red Podcast</a>, devoted <a href="https://omny.fm/shows/the-little-red-podcast/desperate-hong-kong-the-movement-behind-the-mask">this week’s episode to the Hong Kong protest movement</a>, with his co-host, Louisa Lim, on the ground in Hong Kong talking to people about their perseverance in the face of a potentially severe military crackdown from Beijing.</p>
<p>In this episode of Trust Me, Smith discusses where the protests go from here, whether there’s any chance for dialogue between the two sides, and the impact of the increasingly nationalist vitriol aimed at protesters on social media – and on the streets of Hong Kong. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/beijing-is-moving-to-stamp-out-the-hong-kong-protests-but-it-may-have-already-lost-the-city-for-good-121815">Beijing is moving to stamp out the Hong Kong protests – but it may have already lost the city for good</a>
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<p>Smith believes the protests aren’t going to stop until Chief Executive Carrie Lam definitively withdraws the contentious extradition bill and launches an inquiry into police violence against the protesters.</p>
<p>And this is unlikely so long as Lam – and her backers in Beijing – continue to stand firm in their positions and refuse to negotiate.</p>
<p>So, no one knows how this might end, Smith says. </p>
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<p>A lot of the protesters, especially those in their 20s, feel they basically have nothing to lose and they’re going to dig in for the long haul.</p>
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<p><strong>Credits:</strong></p>
<p>Recording and editing by Graeme Smith, Justin Bergman and Sunanda Creagh.</p>
<p><strong>Additional audio</strong></p>
<p><em>Kindergarten by Unkle Ho, from <a href="https://www.elefanttraks.com/">Elefant Traks.</a></em></p>
<p><em><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ifIw3wTeolE">CNN</a> report</em></p>
<p><em>BBC <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oyKXCa9KI0Q">report</a></em></p>
<p><em><a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/the-little-red-podcast/id1136685378">The Little Red Podcast</a></em></p>
<h2>Images</h2>
<p>AAP/EPA/VIVEK PRAKASH</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/122031/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam has indicated she's open to dialogue. But unless she meets the demonstrators' demands, the protest movement isn't going to end anytime soon.Sunanda Creagh, Senior EditorJustin Bergman, International Affairs EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1219942019-08-20T13:47:55Z2019-08-20T13:47:55Z‘We die together’: Hong Kong protests are being driven by a fearless young generation<p>As the protests in Hong Kong enter their eleventh straight week, it’s not uncommon to see teenagers dressed in full battle gear. When I was in Hong Kong in mid August, I encountered a group of young people, including some who looked as young as 14, on their way to a late-night protest wearing face masks and protective gear. I saw them behave in a way that suggested they didn’t care about the consequences of protesting. </p>
<p>Many of the young people protesting in Hong Kong talk online about feeling they have little to lose. For many, this seems like their generation’s chance to fight the overwhelming influence of China on Hong Kong’s way of life.</p>
<p>Demonstrators continue to impress the world with their enormous mobilisation. Organisers <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/18/hong-kong-huge-rally-china-condemns-us-gross-interference">estimated 1.7m people</a> attended a peaceful mass rally on August 18, which made it the second largest in the Special Administrative Region’s history. Turnout wasn’t affected by torrential rain, or the severe limitations authorities placed on protest sites and routes.</p>
<p>The latest peaceful protests keep up pressure on the Hong Kong and Beijing governments, which are still hoping the movement will fizzle out, as the previous protests of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/hong-kong-leaders-in-lockstep-against-divided-protesters-32534">Umbrella Movement</a> did back in 2014. </p>
<p>It’s possible the authorities were waiting for violent behaviour from some of the protesters’ more radical factions to give them a pretext to deploy drastic police measures, or even an intervention by forces from mainland China. Nothing like this happened. </p>
<p>Instead, calls for a calm and peaceful protest on <a href="https://lihkg.com/category/1">LIHKG</a>, one of the main online platforms used by the protesters to organise and communicate, suggest that the leaderless movement is capable of moderating between its different factions. </p>
<p>The previous week was one of the most dramatic of the protests so far. Activists defied restrictions and bans on demonstrations on the weekend of August 10 and 11, opting for rallies and events at several places across the territory. </p>
<p>On that Sunday, I was in Hong Kong and observed a protest march in Kowloon from Sham Shui Po to Cheung Sha Wan. It was very well attended by citizens from all ages and backgrounds, though young people wearing facemasks to disguise their identity were in the relative majority. The protest that afternoon was illegal, yet peaceful and well organised. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288523/original/file-20190819-123705-7avmu3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288523/original/file-20190819-123705-7avmu3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=596&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288523/original/file-20190819-123705-7avmu3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=596&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288523/original/file-20190819-123705-7avmu3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=596&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288523/original/file-20190819-123705-7avmu3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=749&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288523/original/file-20190819-123705-7avmu3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=749&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288523/original/file-20190819-123705-7avmu3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=749&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Signs held up during the Sham Shui Po rally.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Malte Philip Kaeding</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>I saw the participants providing water and rubbish bags, and demonstrators making way for vehicles travelling on the roads. Onlookers and bystanders cheered protesters on and young vendors from South Asian ethnic-minority backgrounds handed out free soft drink cartons of lemon or chrysanthemum tea. After the march arrived at its end point, the Cheung Sha Wan MTR underground station, a group of young masked activists hid behind umbrellas and quickly assembled roadblocks. Within minutes, the police reacted by firing tear gas. </p>
<h2>Tensions rising</h2>
<p>It had already become clear that Hong Kong’s police had prepared an escalation of their counter measures. On that same Sunday, the police resorted to using tear gas <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2019/08/hong-kong-police-should-exercise-restraint-avoid-escalating-violence/">inside MTR stations</a>. They deployed <a href="https://www.hongkongfp.com/2019/08/12/video-hong-kong-police-make-bloody-arrest-assisted-officers-suspected-undercover-protesters/">undercover officers</a> dressed as protesters to make arrests, which undermined the high level of trust among protesters, at least temporarily. It also emerged that a woman was shot that day with an <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/16/an-eye-for-an-eye-hong-kong-protests-get-figurehead-in-woman-injured-by-police">apparent beanbag round</a> at a parallel protest in Tsim Sha Tsui, causing a rupture of her right eye. </p>
<p>This new level of police violence was condemned by the <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=24888&LangID=E">UN High Commissioner for Human Rights</a>, Michelle Bachelet. Protesters reacted to the violence by escalating action further and staged mass sit-ins and blockages of the airport on the following two days which brought air travel to a standstill. The protesters achieved their goal of gaining significant international attention. I saw some speaking flawless English, handing out information pamphlets at major traffic hubs in the city, targeting overseas travellers and apologising for the inconvenience caused by the protests. </p>
<p>Yet there were clashes with the police and protesters did <a href="https://www.hkja.org.hk/en/statements/hkja-condemns-violence-against-reporter-at-airport/">attack a mainland Chinese journalist</a> who failed to show his press card, which tarnished the international image of the demonstration. This presented the movement with a major challenge as gaining <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-26/hong-kong-activists-raise-thousands-for-global-media-ad-blitz">international attention</a> for the protests have been an important strategy from the very beginning. The idea is that international pressure will push the Hong Kong government to start engaging with the demonstrators and agree to their demands, <a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-hongkong-protests/hong-kong-protesters-throng-streets-peacefully-in-pouring-rain-idUKKCN1V802P">which include</a> the complete withdrawal of a controversial extradition bill and an independent inquiry into police behaviour. </p>
<p>The goal of the peaceful protests on August 18 was to regain international support. The Chinese authorities realised this and engaged in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/30/world/australia/hong-kong-china-queensland-protests.html">counter propaganda and mobilisation</a> internationally, while at the same time trying to scare Hong Kongers with <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3023287/chinese-armed-police-stage-another-riot-drill-across-hong-kong">military drills</a> a few kilometres beyond the border in Shenzhen.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/beijing-is-moving-to-stamp-out-the-hong-kong-protests-but-it-may-have-already-lost-the-city-for-good-121815">Beijing is moving to stamp out the Hong Kong protests – but it may have already lost the city for good</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<h2>Fearless</h2>
<p>The most radical of the young protesters are unlikely to be deterred by threat of intervention from Chinese paramilitary forces. Many feel they have little to lose. Aged roughly between 14 and 20, these young people have realised that Hong Kong’s political and economic system is deeply unfair, and all odds are stacked against them. They don’t want to defend Hong Kong’s status quo. Many were fearless about the consequences of their actions, driven by anger over police brutality and government incompetence.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288522/original/file-20190819-123741-io62wi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288522/original/file-20190819-123741-io62wi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288522/original/file-20190819-123741-io62wi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288522/original/file-20190819-123741-io62wi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288522/original/file-20190819-123741-io62wi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288522/original/file-20190819-123741-io62wi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288522/original/file-20190819-123741-io62wi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A poster put up by protesters advertising the Sham Shui Po anti-extradition law rally.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Malte Philip Kaeding</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the online forums used by the movement, protesters discuss ideas of a scorched-earth policy, by which they mean provoking an economic crash. Forum administrators have names roughly translated as “I want to die/burn with you” and slogans such as “if we burn, you burn with us” are frequent. One post from early July, about the storming of the Legislative Assembly building, had the title “We die together”. </p>
<p>This radical faction had their political awakening in the aftermath of the 2014 Umbrella Movement when activists, known as “localists”, called for direct actions to bring about change. Their hope was the fight against rapid economic and social integration with China, for real universal suffrage and autonomy or even independence for Hong Kong. But much of the leadership of the localist movement was either <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/edd3b148-7c32-11e9-81d2-f785092ab560">imprisoned or in exile</a>, many young protesters now feel that their future is at stake. </p>
<p>The high price young activists have already paid, of arrest injury or both, during the protests reinforces their fearlessness. It’s unlikely that they will be satisfied with anything other than real change. On August 20, Hong Kong’s chief executive <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-49403619">promised to create a “platform for dialogue”</a> between the protesters and authorities. But it’s not clear yet whether the Hong Kong and Beijing governments are willing to give way, or whether they are prepared to further alienate an entire generation.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/121994/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Malte Phillipp Kaeding is affiliated with a charity that researches threats to Hong Kong's autonomy.</span></em></p>Who are Hong Kong’s protesters?Malte Phillipp Kaeding, Lecturer in International Politics, University of SurreyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1211062019-08-02T01:19:58Z2019-08-02T01:19:58ZThe Hong Kong protesters have turned militant and more strategic – and this unnerves Beijing<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/286668/original/file-20190801-169710-1526ds3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A new branch of younger protesters has taken a more militant approach, which has proved effective in rattling the government.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ritchie B. Tongo/EPA</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The past few weeks has seen a drastic escalation in violence on the streets of Hong Kong. On Tuesday night, a police officer <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2019/jul/31/hong-kong-police-officer-threatens-protesters-with-shotgun-video">aimed a shotgun at protesters</a> who had gathered outside a police station, while a car launched fireworks into the crowd. </p>
<p>Days earlier, the police <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-49143207">fired rubber bullets and tear gas</a> at protesters trying to reach the Chinese government’s office. </p>
<p>And the week before, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/21/hong-kong-residents-deface-chinese-emblem-in-latest-protest.html">following a protest of 430,000 people</a>, vigilante thugs, dressed in white and carrying bamboo sticks, beat up democracy protesters at a train station.</p>
<p>This <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2019/06/09/hong-kong-hundreds-thousands-protest-extradition-bill/1402089001/">long summer of protests began</a> in response to a proposed extradition bill just days after the 30th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre. But now, over eight weeks on, the protesters continue to take to the streets with a broader set of demands – and the confrontations with police are threatening to spiral out of control. </p>
<p>With <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/01/hong-kong-protests-china-military-breaks-silence-to-warn-unrest-will-not-be-tolerated">reports of a build-up of Chinese forces</a> on the Hong Kong border, and no end in sight to the demonstrations, many are now asking - how will this end?</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1156864155951017985"}"></div></p>
<h2>Conflict arising from the Umbrella movement</h2>
<p>Protest is a familiar tactic in Hong Kong, but this movement has adopted a series of new approaches from the lessons of other protests over the last 30 years – in particular the failures of the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/30/-sp-hong-kong-umbrella-revolution-pro-democracy-protests">2014 Umbrella Movement</a>. </p>
<p>In doing so, they are building something that is - at least until now - showing resilience to Beijing’s authoritarianism.</p>
<p>The current protest movement isn’t a single movement. It has two dominant wings – one is passive, the other more militant. These wings accept and recognise each other’s role. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/extremist-mobs-how-chinas-propaganda-machine-tried-to-control-the-message-in-the-hong-kong-protests-119646">Extremist mobs? How China's propaganda machine tried to control the message in the Hong Kong protests</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>This is new. In 2014, Hong Kong democracy leaders <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/27/hong-kong-democracy-activists-ask-what-protest-achieved-umbrella">staged a 79-day occupation</a> to fight for universal suffrage. Called the Umbrella Movement, the occupation had two sets of leaders - older democracy leaders (known as the Occupy Trio) and younger student leaders (notably Joshua Wong and Nathan Law). </p>
<p>Originally, the Occupy Trio had planned a multi-year campaign to build public and political pressure for universal suffrage, but the students were more confrontational. They staged a sit-in at Civic Square on Hong Kong Island and the occupation was off and running. </p>
<p>During the occupation, these different views led to irreconcilable conflict, making it impossible to talk about overall strategy. When the occupation finally ended – without achieving universal suffrage – there was great acrimony between the groups that lasted for years.</p>
<h2>A new set of principles</h2>
<p>Realising how counter-productive this split was, the protesters were keen not to let strategic differences get in the way this time around. </p>
<p>As organisers made plans for the June 9 rally against the extradition bill, several new principles emerged to define how the different groups could work together and avoid falling into the deep conflict of the past.</p>
<p>They included such maxims as “respect the role of the different groups”, “we all lead”, “no one is left behind” and “be water” (as in, to flow from place to place, building continuous pressure). More than the power of any individual leader, these principles came to define how the movement would function and grow.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-umbrella-revolution-in-hong-kong-a-second-tiananmen-32285">The Umbrella Revolution in Hong Kong: a second Tiananmen?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The principles reinforced one another. The decision not to have a single leader was born from the experience of the Umbrella movement. Every visible leader of that movement was jailed or threatened with jail following the occupation. (Two of the Occupy Trio <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-48033156">received 16-month jail sentences this year</a>). </p>
<p>The Extradition movement learned it was too dangerous to have figurehead leaders. If everyone led, what could Beijing do? They couldn’t jail everyone.</p>
<p>And when it came to respecting the role of different groups, this principle allowed those who wanted to pursue a more militant strategy to do so without fear of rebuke. Everyone was encouraged to do what they thought was needed.</p>
<p>On June 9, two movements launched: a peaceful <a href="https://www.scmp.com/video/hong-kong/3013846/more-1-million-people-join-historic-hong-kong-march-against-extradition">protest of more than one million people</a>, as well as a more militant movement of young people. </p>
<p>The confrontational wing was battle-ready. They had re-purposed everyday items like medical masks, plastic wrap, helmets, goggles, umbrellas and towels into tools of protest. The Umbrella occupation had taught them the police would likely use excessive force – so they dressed accordingly. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/286669/original/file-20190801-169718-1bc4gr2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/286669/original/file-20190801-169718-1bc4gr2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286669/original/file-20190801-169718-1bc4gr2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286669/original/file-20190801-169718-1bc4gr2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286669/original/file-20190801-169718-1bc4gr2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286669/original/file-20190801-169718-1bc4gr2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286669/original/file-20190801-169718-1bc4gr2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The younger protesters come prepared for battle.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jerome Favre/EPA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam was unmoved by a million-person march, but did shift her position and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/15/hong-kong-leader-carrie-lam-extradition-bill-delay-protests-china">suspend the extradition bill</a> when faced with a street confrontation. This sent a loud message to the protesters about what it will take to win under her authoritarian government - militancy was more potent than passive protest.</p>
<p>Protesters got the message. Every mass protest since then has seen these two protest wings in operation. As an elected member of Hong Kong’s government explained to me, they are “codependent” - they need each other to exist.</p>
<p>The two wings initially unsettled Beijing. Every time there was militancy – most dramatically when the <a href="https://www.hongkongfp.com/2019/07/01/breaking-hong-kong-protesters-storm-legislature-breaking-glass-doors-prying-gates-open/">Legislative Council Building was vandalised on July 1</a> – Beijing thought it could be used to their advantage. </p>
<p>The government <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-lets-hong-kong-protest-images-circulate-to-whip-up-public-anger-11563793760">aired the violence on television</a>, hoping it would turn public opinion against the protesters and split the movement. Yet, older democracy leaders did not criticise the students, instead reiterating that “everyone in the movement has their place.” </p>
<p>Popular opinion is still with the protesters, and the protests are still enormous.</p>
<h2>Flowing from protest to protest</h2>
<p>Another form of protest also emerged to supplement the two-wing approach – the movement turned “to water”. </p>
<p>The protests now have a flow they didn’t have during the Umbrella occupation. Protesters don’t simply show up for weekly mass marches and then go home; they have begun organising smaller protests in their districts on a daily basis. </p>
<p>“<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jul/12/hong-kongs-lennon-walls-protest-goes-on-in-colourful-collages-of-sticky-labels">Lennon walls</a>” featuring thousands of protest messages have emerged, for instance, in every one of Hong Kong’s districts. <a href="https://qz.com/1660460/hong-kong-protesters-use-airdrop-to-breach-chinas-firewall/">Random Airdrop notifications</a> share details about impromptu protests, such as last week’s <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/transport/article/3020270/protesters-occupy-part-hong-kong-international-airport">sit-in at the airport</a>. With everyone leading and the action constantly flowing from one place to the next, this protest is hard to stop.</p>
<p>The Umbrella movement, in contrast, was physically fixed in three locations and maintained with tents and nightly sleep-outs. The rigidity of the occupation was exhausting and took a toll on the participants. </p>
<p>A government can wait out an occupation, but how do you capture something that is constantly moving?</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/286670/original/file-20190802-169706-1uzjprb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/286670/original/file-20190802-169706-1uzjprb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286670/original/file-20190802-169706-1uzjprb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286670/original/file-20190802-169706-1uzjprb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286670/original/file-20190802-169706-1uzjprb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286670/original/file-20190802-169706-1uzjprb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286670/original/file-20190802-169706-1uzjprb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Lennon protest walls have sprouted up on walls and pedestrian bridges across the city.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">How Hwee Young/EPA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Where will it end?</h2>
<p>Its hard to predict where the current protest movement goes next. At the moment, there are no negotiations between the government and protest leaders. The protest movement has five key demands that continue to sit on the table, ranging from withdrawing the extradition bill completely to an independent investigation into police brutality to Lam’s resignation. </p>
<p>But it is unclear whether the protests would end even if the demands are agreed to. All the while, Beijing makes infrequent statements in support of Lam, but it also has <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2019/08/01/asia/hong-kong-china-pla-intl-hnk/index.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fedition_asia+%28RSS%3A+CNNi+-+Asia%29">thousands of troops already stationed in Hong Kong</a> – and a <a href="https://www.news.com.au/world/asia/chinese-forces-gathering-at-hong-kong-border-white-house-officials-monitoring-escalation/news-story/82621253f4c093c69834e041713ab34d">build-up of more</a> across the border.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/hong-kong-protests-why-chinese-media-reports-focus-on-britains-colonial-past-119917">Hong Kong protests: why Chinese media reports focus on Britain's colonial past</a>
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<p>What is certain is that a long-standing democracy movement has powerfully connected to the next generation. Young students are terrified about their future and feel they have to do everything they can to fight for their rights. </p>
<p>But the stakes are extremely high. Is it possible for water to move so quickly that it escapes the barrel of the gun?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/121106/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amanda Tattersall receives funding from Halloran Trust, that funds the Organising the 21st Century City incubator grant at the University of Sydney.</span></em></p>Protesters have adopted new approaches stemming from the failures of the 2014 Umbrella Movement and they are building something that is showing resilience to Beijing’s authoritarianism.Amanda Tattersall, Postdoc in urban geography and Research Lead at Sydney Policy Lab. Host of ChangeMakers Podcast., University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1187532019-06-17T17:04:41Z2019-06-17T17:04:41ZMass protests protect Hong Kong’s legal autonomy from China – for now<p>Protesters in Hong Kong have achieved a major victory in their fight to protect their legal system from Chinese interference. </p>
<p>On June 15, in response to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/16/world/asia/hong-kong-protests-pictures.html?module=inline">massive popular resistance</a>, Chief Executive Carrie Lam announced she would suspend a vote on a proposed new law that would allow China to extradite suspects accused of certain crimes and prosecute them in Chinese courts. </p>
<p>For over a week, some <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/12/world/asia/hong-kong-protests.html">1.3 million people had gathered daily outside Hong Kong’s legislature</a> to protest the legislation, which protesters say China will abuse to extradite political dissidents. They managed to postpone a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/hong-kong-legislature-postpones-debate-on-extradition-bill-again-after-clashes-between-police-and-protesters/2019/06/13/b3488268-8d2d-11e9-b6f4-033356502dce_story.html">June 12 vote</a> by blocking entry to the legislative building. Days later, consideration of the law was indefinitely postponed.</p>
<p>That temporarily protects Hong Kong’s <a href="https://theglobepost.com/2018/11/21/hong-kong-democracy/">judicial system</a>, one of the island territory’s few remaining areas of government autonomy from China. </p>
<p>Protesters are now demanding that the bill be <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/16/world/asia/carrie-lam-hong-kong-protests.html">withdrawn</a>, not just <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/15/world/asia/hong-kong-protests-extradition-law.html">suspended</a>. If the law comes up for vote at a later date, it will likely pass in Hong Kong’s legislative council, where pro-China forces dominate.</p>
<h2>‘One country, two systems’</h2>
<p>Chinese rule over Hong Kong, an island territory off the coast of Shenzhen, has long been disputed. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://rowman.com/ISBN/9780742534223/A-Concise-History-of-Hong-Kong">British colonized</a> Hong Kong in the 1800s following the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-commonwealth-and-britain-the-trouble-with-empire-2-0-73707">Opium Wars</a>. But China never accepted this territorial claim, and insisted throughout the 20th century that Hong Kong belonged to China. </p>
<p>In 1997, after a decade of negotiations between the United Kingdom and China, Hong Kong returned to China – with some <a href="http://www.gov.cn/english/2007-06/14/content_649468.htm">strings</a> attached. Knowing that Hong Kong had developed under a Western system of government, then Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping made Hong Kong a “Special Autonomous Region” and agreed to give the island a 50-year transition period to come fully under Chinese rule. </p>
<p>Under this system, Hong Kong would retain its judicial system and legislative council, affording the island relative independence in its day-to-day operations. But Hong Kong would belong to China. The arrangement became known as “<a href="https://www.basiclaw.gov.hk/en/publications/book/15anniversary_reunification_ch1_1.pdf">one country, two systems</a>.” </p>
<p>Controversially, full suffrage and free elections <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/2180764/declassified-files-reveal-disagreement-heart-british">were not part of the 1997 deal</a>. </p>
<p>For two decades, though, the “one country, two systems” arrangement seemed to give Hong Kong relative autonomy from Chinese interference.</p>
<p>Then, in 2014, China announced that people would be allowed to vote in Hong Kong’s 2017 <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/30/-sp-hong-kong-umbrella-revolution-pro-democracy-protests">chief executive election</a> only from a short list of preapproved candidates. </p>
<p>Thousands took to the streets to demand universal suffrage. To protect themselves from police spraying tear gas at the front lines, they used umbrellas, giving rise to the name the “<a href="https://thinkprogress.org/everything-you-need-to-know-about-hong-kongs-umbrella-revolution-4caf300296c8/">Umbrella Movement</a>.”</p>
<p>In the years since the uprising, I have interviewed numerous democracy activists in Hong Kong as part of my <a href="https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev.so.15.080189.001003">academic research</a> into the evolution of social movements. </p>
<p>Many participants told me that they believed the 2014 Umbrella Movement had ended peacefully because China didn’t want another Tiananmen Square on its hands. In 1989, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S3RzKKfNkTk">Chinese soldiers opened fire on student protesters</a> in Beijing, killing hundreds and raising global uproar.</p>
<p>Emboldened by international support for the Umbrella Movement, Hong Kong’s <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-34897403">young activists</a> have continued their efforts to protect their independence from China. <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/1882470/fight-reclaim-hong-kong-has-just-begun-umbrella-soldiers">Nine Umbrella Movement leaders</a> ran for local office in Hong Kong in the territory’s 2015 elections.</p>
<p>In 2016 elections, two pro-independence politicians even won seats in the legislative council. However, they were quickly <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/16/world/asia/china-hong-kong-sixtus-leung-yau-wai-ching-oath.html">expelled</a> for “failing” to properly recite their loyalty oaths at a swearing-in ceremony. </p>
<p>In 2017 <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/2082192/live-decision-day-arrives-hong-kong-race-its-next-leader">Carrie Lam</a>, a candidate loyal to Beijing and the driving force behind the extradition law, was elected Chief Executive – Hong Kong’s highest public official.</p>
<h2>Creeping Chinese influence</h2>
<p>Under Lam’s leadership, traditionally pro-democracy politicians were <a href="https://theconversation.com/hong-kongs-democratic-struggle-and-the-rise-of-chinese-authoritarianism-81369">removed</a> from office. Some were even <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/17/world/asia/hong-kong-joshua-wong-jailed-umbrella-movement.html">arrested and jailed as dissidents</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/279795/original/file-20190617-118535-ea6d70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/279795/original/file-20190617-118535-ea6d70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/279795/original/file-20190617-118535-ea6d70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279795/original/file-20190617-118535-ea6d70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279795/original/file-20190617-118535-ea6d70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279795/original/file-20190617-118535-ea6d70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279795/original/file-20190617-118535-ea6d70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279795/original/file-20190617-118535-ea6d70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/fa/Carrie_Lam_2017_1.jpg">Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Today, only 24 pro-democracy politicians remain in Hong Kong’s 70-seat legislative council. </p>
<p>Increasing Chinese influence on the island territory also threatens Hong Kong’s clout as a <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Neoliberalism-and-Culture-in-China-and-Hong-Kong-The-Countdown-of-Time/Ren/p/book/9780415582629">major economic hub</a>. </p>
<p>For decades, Hong Kong’s relative autonomy has made the island territory an <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/economy/article/2117984/world-bank-ranks-hong-kong-no-5-list-easiest-places-world-do">appealing place to do business in Asia</a>. But under stronger Chinese rule, financial markets and regulatory systems in Hong Kong may become less reliable as they begin to reflect <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/58ecfa82e3df284d3a13dd41/t/5cc9dcd753450a0e1da5bcab/1556733145217/Broken+Firewall+-+The+Extradition+Law+and+the+rule+of+law+in+Hong+Kong.pdf">the national interests</a> of China – not those of the free market.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/738d29e8-5773-11e9-a3db-1fe89bedc16e">American Chamber of Commerce</a> and several prominent Hong Kong business leaders have publicly spoken out against the extradition law. </p>
<p>“Spiriting people away over the border would undermine business confidence,” one hedge fund manager told the nonprofit human rights organization <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/58ecfa82e3df284d3a13dd41/t/5cc9dcd753450a0e1da5bcab/1556733145217/Broken+Firewall+-+The+Extradition+Law+and+the+rule+of+law+in+Hong+Kong.pdf">Hong Kong Watch</a>.</p>
<h2>Human rights at stake</h2>
<p>Hong Kong’s legal system is now the only surviving pillar of “one country, two systems,” which was created to give Hong Kong autonomy over its legal, economic and financial affairs. </p>
<p>If the postponed extradition law passes, there will be no meaningful remaining barriers between democratic-leaning Hong Kong and authoritarian China. </p>
<p>For many in Hong Kong, that’s an intolerable future. </p>
<p>An assessment by the <a href="https://worldjusticeproject.org/our-work/research-and-data/wjp-rule-law-index-2017%E2%80%932018">World Justice Project</a>, a nonprofit organization that works to advance the rule of law worldwide, ranks Hong Kong 16th and China 82nd worldwide <a href="https://worldjusticeproject.org/">based on</a> their constraints on government powers, absence of corruption, open government, fundamental rights, order and security, regulatory enforcement, civil justice and criminal justice.</p>
<p>China is a known <a href="https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2018/country-chapters/china-and-tibet#eaa21f">violator of human rights</a>. It systematically <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/inside-chinas-massive-surveillance-operation/">surveils and represses</a> ethnic minorities like the Uyghurs, a Muslim population in China’s northwest region, and restricts <a href="https://www.hongkongfp.com/2019/06/13/telegram-hit-cyber-attack-hong-kong-extradition-unrest-ceo-points-china/">internet access</a>. The government has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/28/wang-quanzhang-china-sentences-human-rights-lawyer-to-four-years-in-prison">jailed hundreds of human rights lawyers</a> since 2015.</p>
<p>Political dissidence is not tolerated in China. The late <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/2010/xiaobo/facts/">Nobel Peace Prize winner</a> Liu Xiaobo, was sentenced in 2009 to 11 years in Chinese prison for “<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-dissident/chinas-top-dissident-arrested-for-subversion-idUSTRE55N0F020090624">inciting subversion of state power</a>.” He <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2018/07/liu-xiaobo-spirit-will-never-die/">died in prison in 2017</a> after being denied travel abroad for cancer treatment. </p>
<p>Hong Kong, on the other hand, has a <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/9780429459030">rich history</a> of mass demonstrations. </p>
<p>In Hong Kong’s <a href="https://www.scmp.com/magazines/post-magazine/short-reads/article/2083386/hunger-striker-who-sparked-april-1966-star-ferry">1966 Star Ferry riots</a>, people protested the British colonial government’s decision to increase transit fares. And every <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/01/world/asia/hong-kong-march-handover.html">July 1</a> since 2003 – the anniversary of the 1997 transition from British to Chinese rule – people have taken to the streets pleading for universal suffrage. </p>
<p>“One country, two systems” has allowed Hong Kong residents to openly disagree with policymakers in a way mainland Chinese cannot. As required by Hong Kong’s legal system, democracy protesters arrested for their political activism are given legal representation, trials and serve time in Hong Kong’s <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/article/2077873/hong-kongs-prison-system-explained">well-regulated prisons</a>. </p>
<p>The extradition law’s threat of trial and punishment in China would have a chilling effect on <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/3013797/thanks-coming-im-not-changing-my-mind-defiant-carrie-lam">future democracy demonstrations</a> there.</p>
<p>If “One country, two systems” falls, what remains of Hong Kong’s democracy will go down with it.</p>
<p>(<em>Like what you’ve read? Want more?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=likethis">Sign up for The Conversation’s daily newsletter</a>. )</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/118753/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kelly Chernin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A controversial extradition law has been suspended in Hong Kong after more than a week of mass public resistance. Hong Kong’s legal system is one of its few remaining areas of autonomy from China.Kelly Chernin, Research Assistant Professor, Appalachian State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.