Queensland's result reinforces the theory that pandemic conditions favour incumbents. It also deals a blow for One Nation and Clive Palmer.
As Queensland heads to to the polls, hundreds of voters have received unsolicited text messages from Clive Palmer urging them to vote against Labor. And that's just the tip of the electioneering iceberg.
Progressive voices have lit up social media with memes blaming Queensland for Labor’s loss in the federal election. But characterising the state as regressive and redneck is misplaced.
Queensland has a proud place in Labor history. But the 2019 election shows the federal Labor Party no longer understands the issues that matter to Queensland voters.
Clive Palmer spent about $60million on advertising – despite not winning a seat, the UAP vote had a significant impact on some seat outcomes.
Especially in Queensland, right-wing populist parties like One Nation and United Australia Party had a significant impact on how seats played out, and especially taking votes from Labor.
Australia’s populist parties are polling much lower than their counterparts in Europe.
Kelly Barnes and Dan Peled/AAP
Australian populism is more of a long-term grumble about the state of the world than a sharp reaction to the threat of cultural loss.
The leaders debate returned Western Australia to the political spotlight this week.
Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND
Pre-poll votes within the first 24 hours were almost double the number at the same stage in 2016. That could hurt some minor parties who traditionally spend big in the last few weeks of a campaign.
Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, and Fraser Anning’s new Conservative National Party will compete for the conservative vote.
Voter dissatisfaction with the major parties means minor party preferences are likely to play a critical role in many seats, making the election outcome hard to predict.
Three weeks before the election, the UAP has been included in the party readout for the first time.
The latest Newspoll shows a further tightening on two-party preferred, but was making some strange assumptions about the slow of preferences.
UAP’s Clive Palmer: “We think we’ll win six Senate seats”.
Unchastened by his experience in federal parliament between 2013 and 2016, Clive Palmer and his United Australia Party are back - and beginning to make their presence felt in polling.
Josh Frydenberg and Scott Morrison may turn to Robert Menzies’ lessons on how to rebuild a party.
Their longest serving leader built the modern Liberal Party after its predecessor collapsed in 1941– but it took him eight years and defeat in two elections.
Soon after revealing his plans to build a replica Titanic, Clive Palmer has set his sights on becoming Australian Prime Minister.
Queensland has a habit of raising the eyebrows of our southern cousins when it comes to politics “our way”. Visits to friends and family down south always have required explanations about Joh Bjelke-Petersen…