A change of heart on preferences appears to have cost the high-profile independent in Wentworth, while the controversy around Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation has been of benefit to Donald Trump.
The Coalition’s recent hit in the polls seems to be subsiding, while Kerryn Phelps may have made a damaging error by announcing she’ll preference the Liberals in the Wentworth byelection.
Fairfax Ipsos gives Labor another win on two-party preferred, albeit with weird primary vote numbers, while the Labor party in Victoria has another poll win just over two months ahead of the state election.
For Phelps the byelection is important but for Morrison, it is critical. If Wentworth is lost, the Coalition loses majority. There could be some paralysis and the fear in the ranks will increase.
The byelection is vital for Scott Morrison who will face a very difficult test in his initial days as prime minister. He will encounter a lot of anger in the electorate at the removal of Turnbull.
There are three women in the field - Mary-Lou Jarvis, a vice-president of the NSW Liberal party; Katherine O'Regan, a commercial board director, and Maxine Szramka, a rheumatologist.
Attention is coming on the Minister for Women Kelly O'Dwyer, who issued a general statement last week condemning bullying, to take a stronger stand. O'Dwyer is expected to say more this week.
Australians have never liked sitting PMs being deposed by their own parties - but the outrage over Malcolm Turnbull’s destruction is the greatest in modern history.