tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/zak-kirkup-100506/articlesZak Kirkup – The Conversation2021-03-14T05:57:37Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1563012021-03-14T05:57:37Z2021-03-14T05:57:37ZLabor’s thumping win in Western Australia carries risks for both sides<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389404/original/file-20210314-20-tjioj0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Richard Wainwright</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Liberal fears of a wipeout in the Western Australia state election have been realised, with the <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-obliterates-liberals-in-historic-wa-election-will-win-control-of-upper-house-for-first-time-156203">Labor party winning about 52 seats</a> in the 59-member Legislative Assembly.</p>
<p>This represents the biggest electoral win in any Australian jurisdiction since the stabilisation of the two-party system over 70 years ago. There is no doubt that the immense popularity of Labor Premier Mark McGowan was a decisive factor in the result. McGowan enjoys <a href="https://theconversation.com/meet-mark-mcgowan-the-wa-leader-with-a-staggering-88-personal-approval-rating-156293">rock-star-like status</a> in the state, and this <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/mar/13/western-australia-liberals-worst-fears-realised-zak-kirkup-unseated">was noted</a> by his political opponents during the count.</p>
<p>For the Liberals it has been a devastating loss: not only have they almost been obliterated from the parliament, but their leader has gone and they are no longer the official opposition - that now goes to the National Party.</p>
<p>One of the earliest seats to call was the seat of Dawesville, held by 34 year old Liberal leader Zak Kirkup. He <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02-25/why-would-zak-kirkup-concede-wa-election-defeat/13191804">had already conceded</a> that he could not win the election before a vote had been cast, and his subsequent focus had been on retaining as many Liberal seats as possible.</p>
<p>Another high profile casualty was former Liberal leader Liza Harvey, who lost her seat of Scarborough. Harvey was <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-14/wa-liberal-party-blame-starts-as-party-takes-stock-of-election/13245658">blamed by some</a> in Liberal circles for the defeat. As opposition leader in 2020 she had called for WA’s hard border to come down, which was followed immediately by the COVID-19 outbreak in Victoria.</p>
<p>At this stage, it looks like the extraordinary support for Labor will translate into an <a href="https://www.elections.wa.gov.au/elections/state/sgelection#/sg2021">upper house majority</a> for the first time for Labor. It is worth noting that Liberal-National governments in WA have regularly controlled both houses of parliament while in government. While the Nationals occasionally voted differently from the Liberals, being in cabinet meant this was a rarity. Control of both houses should mean government bills will pass into law with little resistance.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-obliterates-liberals-in-historic-wa-election-will-win-control-of-upper-house-for-first-time-156203">Labor obliterates Liberals in historic WA election; will win control of upper house for first time</a>
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<h2>Is WA a one-party state?</h2>
<p>While there will be at least six Liberal or National MPs in the 59 seat lower house, and a much higher number of non-government MPs in the upper house, there is no doubt the McGowan government will dominate proceedings in parliament.</p>
<p>Such is the imbalance, though, that it raises questions of accountability. Parliament is the principal body of accountability for governments in our democratic system, and it is critical parliamentary processes that typically hold government to account are maintained. Opposition parties need resources to research contentious issues, investigate complaints, and develop alternative policies.</p>
<p>It is critical oppositions are able to ask questions without notice in question time, put detailed questions on notice to the government in the Legislative Council, and have a presence on parliamentary committees that investigate issues arising in government and in the broader community. Most importantly, they need the resources to scrutinise bills which are introduced into either house.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/meet-mark-mcgowan-the-wa-leader-with-a-staggering-88-personal-approval-rating-156293">Meet Mark McGowan: the WA leader with a staggering 88% personal approval rating</a>
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<p>There are dangers for the government itself in having a large majority. Some Labor members may struggle to have their voices heard in such a large party room. There will be increased competition for all manner of roles in government, starting with positions in the new Labor ministry, and disappointment may lead to discontent and in-fighting within the partyroom. </p>
<p>Governments that control both houses run the risk of passing poorly-structured legislation. Parliamentary scrutiny leads to better governance, a factor that in the long run helps governments as much as oppositions. One factor in the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2007-11-25/workchoices-blamed-for-election-loss/967664">demise of the long-running Howard government</a> was the passage of its “workchoices” legislation, achieved during a rare incidence of government controlling both houses of the federal parliament.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389405/original/file-20210314-19-477jgf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389405/original/file-20210314-19-477jgf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389405/original/file-20210314-19-477jgf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389405/original/file-20210314-19-477jgf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389405/original/file-20210314-19-477jgf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389405/original/file-20210314-19-477jgf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389405/original/file-20210314-19-477jgf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">WA Liberals have been all but obliterated in the state election, with leader Zak Kirkup among those who lost their seats.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Richard Wainwright</span></span>
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<h2>Federal implications</h2>
<p>There will no doubt be some pundits who draw federal implications from Labor’s stunning victory, but it is worth remembering that neither Scott Morrison nor Anthony Albanese featured in the campaigns of either party. Albanese <a href="https://www.albanyadvertiser.com.au/politics/albanese-mcgowan-hold-separate-wa-events-ng-s-2051917">did visit WA during the campaign period</a>, but did not join McGowan on the campaign trail.</p>
<p>Western Australia has long been a traditional heartland for the federal Liberals, and they currently hold 11 of the 16 seats here. Federal Liberals from WA have been punching well above their weight in the federal government. But Morrison has not visited Western Australia since October 2019, and two of his senior ministers from WA are both on leave with <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/to-save-himself-pm-must-sacrifice-reynolds-and-porter/news-story/eff8ef0b35987def91476d98146c5a5c">their futures under a cloud</a>.</p>
<p>Any suggestion of trying to overlay these results onto federal seats is a fraught exercise. But there is one thing we know for sure: there will be a lot fewer people in WA working for the Liberal party in paid positions than there were before the election. This will affect the ability of Liberals to strategise, and organise on the ground.</p>
<p>The organisational structure of the party has come under scrutiny in recent times, amid <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-14/the-wa-election-has-left-the-liberal-party-in-ruins-analysis/13244530">fears that the WA branch</a> is dominated by a small group of powerbrokers. Maintaining robust structures for campaigning will be crucial with a federal election due within the next year.</p>
<p>But there are a few positives that the federal government may take out of the campaign. First, WA voters have consistently voted differently at state and federal level. And Morrison, while not enjoying the popularity of McGowan, is <a href="https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/newspoll-scott-morrison-holds-dominant-lead-over-anthony-albanese/news-story/cecde1e1535527e00ba7465d9da2aa19">more popular than his opponent</a>. The WA election also marks the fourth straight state or territory election during COVID-19 where the incumbent government has been returned. It is clear incumbency and competent management are distinct advantages during a pandemic.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/156301/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Martin Drum does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With Mark McGowan’s government set to control both house houses of parliament, there will be questions of accountability. For the Liberals, there will be questions of relevance.Martin Drum, Lecturer Politics and International Relations, University of Notre Dame AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1562032021-03-13T22:10:44Z2021-03-13T22:10:44ZLabor obliterates Liberals in historic WA election; will win control of upper house for first time<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389393/original/file-20210313-15-1qochu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Richard Wainwright</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>With 43% of enrolled voters counted in yesterday’s Western Australian election, the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa/2021/results?filter=indoubt&sort=az">ABC was calling</a> Labor wins in 49 of the 59 lower house seats, to just two for the Liberals and three for the Nationals. Five seats remained in doubt. </p>
<p>The current final outcome prediction is 52 Labor, three Liberals and four Nationals. Since the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa/2021/guide/preview">2017 election</a>, this would be an 11-seat gain for Labor and a 10-seat loss for the Liberals. <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa/2021/results?filter=changing&sort=az">Liberal casualties</a> included current leader Zak Kirkup’s seat of Dawesville, and former leader Liza Harvey’s Scarborough.</p>
<p>Statewide primary vote shares were a massive 59.1% for Labor (up 16.9% since 2017), 21.3% Liberals (down 9.9%), 4.5% National (down 0.9%), 7.1% Greens (down 1.8%) and just 1.3% for One Nation (down 3.7%). The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/wa2021/Results/?">Poll Bludger’s</a> statewide two party projection is 69.2-30.8 to Labor, a 13.7% swing to Labor.</p>
<p>With 30.8% of the upper house vote counted, the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa/2021/guide/lc-results">ABC’s group ticket voting</a> calculators are giving Labor 22 of the 36 seats (up eight), the Liberals six (down three), the Nationals four (steady), Legalise Cannabis two (up two), the Shooters and Fishers one (steady) and the Greens one (down three).</p>
<p>Current results show Labor winning 20 of its 22 seats on raw quotas without requiring preferences. They need a small amount of preferences to win three seats in Agricultural region and four in North Metropolitan. Labor is set to win the heavily malapportioned upper house for the first time in its history.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/whopping-lead-for-labor-ahead-of-wa-election-but-federal-newspoll-deadlocked-at-50-50-155735">Whopping lead for Labor ahead of WA election, but federal Newspoll deadlocked at 50-50</a>
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<h2>Why this result occurred</h2>
<p>As I wrote <a href="https://theconversation.com/wa-election-could-be-historical-labor-landslide-but-party-with-less-than-1-vote-may-win-upper-house-seat-156202">recently</a>, the current 69-31 two party result is probably the most lopsided ever in Australian electoral history for any state or federally. Labor’s primary vote may drop back as more votes are counted, but will be at least roughly level with the combined National and Liberal vote at the Queensland 1974 election.</p>
<p>With the opposite party in power federally, and campaigning for its second term, Labor was likely to win unless they had major stuff-ups. But Premier Mark McGowan’s handling of COVID created this record landslide. </p>
<p>Imposing hard borders to stop the spread was very popular, and with relatively few cases in WA, life remained relatively normal with the exception of a five-day lockdown in early February. In the final <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/03/13/newspoll-66-34-to-labor-in-western-australia/">pre-election Newspoll</a>, McGowan’s ratings were 88% satisfied and just 10% dissatisfied.</p>
<p>I do not think there are federal implications from this massive Labor victory at the state level. While not at McGowan’s levels, Scott Morrison was still very popular by historical standards at 64% satisfied, 32% dissatisfied in the last federal Newspoll.</p>
<p>If being perceived as dealing well with COVID is a criterion for a successful re-election, the federal Coalition would be likely to win now.</p>
<p>In February 2001, Peter Beattie led Queensland Labor to 66 of the 89 lower house seats, to just 15 for the Coalition parties. But in <a href="https://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/federal_elections/Stats_CDRom.htm#cd">November 2001</a>, the federal Coalition under John Howard was re-elected, with the Coalition winning 19 of the 27 federal Queeensland seats.</p>
<p>Many people did not believe the 68-32 Newspoll three weeks ago, and the final pre-election Newspoll (66-34) was also hard to believe. But Labor has exceeded both these Newspolls. A YouGov poll of <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/03/12/yougov-60-40-to-labor-in-dawesville/">Dawesville</a> had Labor winning by 60-40; it’s currently 64.5-35.5. Expecting outcomes to be narrower than polls indicate can be a big mistake.</p>
<h2>Biden’s $US 1.9 trillion stimulus becomes law</h2>
<p>To revive the US economy from its COVID-induced recession, President Joe Biden proposed a $US 1.9 trillion stimulus. On March 6, this stimulus <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Rescue_Plan_Act_of_2021">passed the US Senate</a> on a 50-49 vote, with all 50 Democrats in support and all Republicans opposed; one Republican missed the vote.</p>
<p>Had the vote been tied at 50-50, Vice President Kamala Harris would have broken the tie. This stimulus vote shows how important the two narrow Democratic wins in the January 5 <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/01/05/us/elections/results-georgia-runoffs.html">Georgia Senate runoffs</a> were. </p>
<p>Without those victories, there is no possibility this stimulus would have become law, and Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell would still control the Senate’s agenda, enabling him to deny votes on items he disliked.</p>
<p>On Wednesday the House of Representatives, which had earlier passed its own version of the stimulus, agreed to the Senate’s amendments by a 220-211 margin. Biden signed the stimulus into law on Thursday. All Republicans who voted in either chamber of Congress opposed the stimulus.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/156203/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The WA Liberals’ near wipe-out includes the seat of Opposition Leader Zak Kirkup.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1561232021-03-02T19:12:59Z2021-03-02T19:12:59ZThe Liberals face electoral wipeout in WA, but have 3 good reasons to keep campaigning<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/386913/original/file-20210301-23-v119zh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=32%2C0%2C5398%2C3112&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Richard Wainwright/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Time is running out for the Western Australian Liberal Party. Polling points to a <a href="https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2021/02/wa-2021-how-lopsided-do-you-want-it.html">massive Labor landslide</a> at the upcoming state election on March 13.</p>
<p>Following <a href="https://theconversation.com/whopping-lead-for-labor-ahead-of-wa-election-but-federal-newspoll-deadlocked-at-50-50-155735">last month’s Newspoll</a>, which put Labor in front by 68-32, two-party-preferred, Liberal opposition leader Zak Kirkup abandoned any public pretence he might actually win the election.</p>
<p>“I accept it’s not my time,” he told The West Australian newspaper <a href="https://thewest.com.au/news/wa/the-west-australians-am-briefing-zak-kirkups-admission-swastika-attacker-arrest-and-duttons-revelation-ng-b881806356z">last week</a>. </p>
<h2>Not following the election script</h2>
<p>While not entirely unprecedented (then Labor leader Geoff Gallop said the Court government would be “<a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/Publications_Archive/Background_Papers/bp9697/97bp15">returned comfortably</a>” three days before the 1996 WA election), it is nonetheless an extraordinary admission from Kirkup. It departs from established practice where political leaders try to preserve hope amongst their faithful, even in the face of extreme adversity. </p>
<p>Some voters may applaud Kirkup — who only took up the Liberal leadership last November — for his honesty. This was certainly the <a href="https://thewest.com.au/opinion/editorials/editorial-liberal-leader-zak-kirkup-cant-win-state-election-but-its-vital-he-keeps-fighting-ng-b881805594z">editorial view</a> of The West Australian. It is also a definitive way of capturing the “<a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/232886256_Underdogs_bandwagons_or_incumbency_Party_support_at_the_beginning_and_the_end_of_Australian_election_campaigns_1983-2007">underdog</a>” status going into election day and emphasising the importance of checks and balances in our political system, while highlighting the importance of the upper house race as well.</p>
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<img alt="Liberal leader Zak Kirkup" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/386916/original/file-20210301-18-1e0t13c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/386916/original/file-20210301-18-1e0t13c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/386916/original/file-20210301-18-1e0t13c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/386916/original/file-20210301-18-1e0t13c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/386916/original/file-20210301-18-1e0t13c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/386916/original/file-20210301-18-1e0t13c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/386916/original/file-20210301-18-1e0t13c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Zak Kirkup was elected WA’s Liberal leader in November 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Richard Wainwright/AAP</span></span>
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<p>But there are significant risks to this approach. One is that voters may feel its disrespectful to the vast majority of people who are yet to vote. Another is, why would voters take any notice of Liberal party policy announcements, if they won’t be in government to deliver on any of them?</p>
<p>Under the circumstances, the Liberal Party could be forgiven for pitching their policy settings firmly towards their own base. Curiously, their <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02-11/coal-plants-to-shut-by-2025-in-wa-liberals-renewable-energy-plan/13143910">one signature policy</a> involves shutting WA’s coal-fired power plants by 2025, backing in renewable energy generation, and achieving net zero carbon emissions in the state electricity system by 2030.</p>
<p>It has certainly attracted the ire of federal colleagues, with Liberal MP Andrew Hastie <a href="https://www.watoday.com.au/politics/federal/federal-liberals-blast-wa-opposition-leader-zak-kirkup-s-lemon-green-energy-policy-20210227-p576bp.html">describing it</a> as a “lemon”. For their part, the McGowan government has borrowed lines from the federal Coalition’s playbook, <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/wa-liberal-party-promises-to-shut-coal-power-stations-by-2025-20210211-p571gb">arguing the policy would see</a>,</p>
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<p>many, many billions of extra debt, a huge increase in family power bills, rolling blackouts across the state and huge job losses.</p>
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<h2>More at stake than forming government</h2>
<p>While the headline result of the election looks like a foregone conclusion, there are plenty of reasons for the Liberals to continue to fight hard for every vote. </p>
<p>The first is to try to stop Labor from winning control of the Legislative Council (upper house). While the Coalition almost always win control of the upper house when in government in WA, this is extremely rare for Labor. </p>
<p>A Labor majority (or a Labor-Greens majority) <a href="https://thewest.com.au/politics/state-election-2021/mark-mcgowan-says-electoral-reform-not-on-agenda-as-nationals-claim-labor-will-overhaul-upper-house-voting-ng-b881795472z">could pave the way</a> for electoral reform to remove <a href="https://insidestory.org.au/an-affront-to-anyone-who-believes-in-democracy/">undemocratic malapportionment</a> in WA. In the upper house, one regional six-member electorate has fewer than 70,000 voters, while three six-member metropolitan ones have more than 400,000 each.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/whopping-lead-for-labor-ahead-of-wa-election-but-federal-newspoll-deadlocked-at-50-50-155735">Whopping lead for Labor ahead of WA election, but federal Newspoll deadlocked at 50-50</a>
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<p>However, this malapportionment is so extreme, it means even a Labor landslide doesn’t guarantee an upper house majority in its own right. The Labor party currently has just 14 seats in the 36 seat chamber, despite winning 41 of the 59 seats in the lower house in 2017. </p>
<p>To win 19 seats they need to pick up additional seats in five of the six upper house regions. They already hold three seats in both the east metropolitan and south metropolitan regions and the quota for four is a whopping 57.14% of the primary vote. This provides us with some sense of magnitude of the victory required to achieve a basic majority. </p>
<h2>Being able to be an effective opposition</h2>
<p>A second critical reason for the Liberal party to chase every vote is to avoid a wipe out that is so bad it makes them ineffective as an opposition. </p>
<p>The Liberal Party currently has just 13 seats in the 59 seat Legislative Assembly, which is the legacy of a <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-wins-wa-in-a-landslide-as-one-nation-fails-to-land-a-blow-74062">very poor performance</a> at the last election. While they look very likely to sink further, they would be desperate to avoid the most catastrophic outcome — a return of fewer seats in the lower house than the Nationals and the loss of official opposition status. </p>
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<img alt="Labor Premier Mark McGowan" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/386920/original/file-20210301-17-cw5ahg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/386920/original/file-20210301-17-cw5ahg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/386920/original/file-20210301-17-cw5ahg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/386920/original/file-20210301-17-cw5ahg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/386920/original/file-20210301-17-cw5ahg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/386920/original/file-20210301-17-cw5ahg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/386920/original/file-20210301-17-cw5ahg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Labor Premier Mark McGowan has a a commanding lead in the polls.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Richard Wainwright/AAP</span></span>
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<p>There is also the possibility their numbers could be so low as to deny them the resources normally allotted to parliamentary leaders and whips as set out by the <a href="https://www.legislation.wa.gov.au/legislation/statutes.nsf/main_mrtitle_873_homepage.html">Salaries and Allowances Act</a>.</p>
<p>This means they would have very few staff and minimal funds to hold the government to account. It also means their capacity to probe during question time and ask useful <a href="https://www.parliament.wa.gov.au/WebCMS/webcms.nsf/content/parliamentary-business-parliamentary-questions-and-question-time">Questions on Notice</a> would be limited. They would also have a very thin presence on parliamentary committees. </p>
<h2>Thinking ahead to 2025</h2>
<p>There is also a third, compelling reason for Kirkup and the Liberals to avoid electoral oblivion. </p>
<p>While the modern electorate is a volatile one, if they win just a handful of seats in 2021, the task of winning in 2025 would also become much more difficult — the Liberals may face at least three terms in opposition.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-wins-wa-in-a-landslide-as-one-nation-fails-to-land-a-blow-74062">Labor wins WA in a landslide as One Nation fails to land a blow</a>
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<p>An electoral wipe-out could ruin the careers of future leadership aspirants and ensure that the next Liberal premier is yet to enter parliament.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/156123/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Martin Drum does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Time is running out for the Western Australian Liberal Party. Polling points to a massive Labor landslide at the upcoming state election on March 13.Martin Drum, Lecturer Politics and International Relations, University of Notre Dame AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1557352021-02-22T03:55:32Z2021-02-22T03:55:32ZWhopping lead for Labor ahead of WA election, but federal Newspoll deadlocked at 50-50<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385452/original/file-20210222-17-s6q682.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=24%2C337%2C3993%2C2337&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Richard Wainwright/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>With less than three weeks left until the March 13 Western Australian election, the <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/popular-premier-mark-mcgowan-to-lead-wipeout-in-the-west/news-story/b6d8d964ec454ca28d7cd1a16e6a3a48">latest Newspoll</a> gives Labor a 68-32 lead, two-party-preferred. If replicated on election day, this would be a <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/anxiety-for-both-sides-over-newspoll-polling-swing/news-story/ad12172d2db728cf60698049a524cefe">12.5% swing</a> to Labor from the 2017 election two party result. </p>
<p>Analyst <a href="https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2021/02/wa-2021-how-lopsided-do-you-want-it.html">Kevin Bonham</a> describes the Newspoll result as “scarcely processable” and says it is the most lopsided result in Newspoll history for any state or federally.</p>
<p>Primary votes were 59% for Labor, up from 42.2% at the 2017 election, 23% for the Liberals (down from 31.2% in 2017), 2% National (5.4%), 8% Greens (8.9%) and 3% One Nation (4.9%). This poll was conducted February 12-18 from a sample of 1,034.</p>
<p>Premier Mark McGowan had an 88% satisfied rating with 10% dissatisfied (net +78), while Liberal opposition leader <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-24/zak-kirkup-elected-unopposed-as-new-wa-liberal-party-leader/12913004">Zak Kirkup</a> was at 29% satisfied, 41% dissatisfied (net -12). McGowan led Kirkup as “better premier” by a crushing 83 to 10.</p>
<h2>A pandemic boost?</h2>
<p>Other recent polls have been strong, albeit less spectacular for Labor. Bonham refers to a January 30 uComms poll that gave Labor a 61-39 lead, from primary votes of 46.8% Labor, 27.5% Liberal, 5.1% National, 8.3% Greens and 6.9% One Nation.</p>
<p>There is also a pattern here. Since the pandemic began, governments that have managed to keep COVID cases down have been rewarded. This includes Queensland and New Zealand Labo(u)r governments at their <a href="https://theconversation.com/labo-u-r-easily-wins-in-both-new-zealand-and-the-act-and-leads-in-queensland-147985">respective October elections last year</a>.</p>
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<img alt="WA Liberal leader Zak Kirkup." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385454/original/file-20210222-23-1ua41fc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385454/original/file-20210222-23-1ua41fc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385454/original/file-20210222-23-1ua41fc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385454/original/file-20210222-23-1ua41fc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385454/original/file-20210222-23-1ua41fc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385454/original/file-20210222-23-1ua41fc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385454/original/file-20210222-23-1ua41fc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Zak Kirkup was only elected as WA’s Liberal leader last November.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Richard Wainwright/AAP</span></span>
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<p>McGowan’s imposition of a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/feb/20/gospel-according-to-mark-can-anything-stop-western-australias-covid-saviours-re-election">hard WA border</a> to restrict COVID has boosted both his and Labor’s popularity. There have been relatively few WA COVID cases, and life has been comparably normal with the exception of a five-day lockdown in early February.</p>
<h2>Upper house a different story</h2>
<p>But it’s not all good news for McGowan. While Labor will easily win a majority in the lower house, it will be much harder for the ALP and the Greens to win an upper house majority. The upper house suffers from both a high degree of <a href="https://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/the-four-changes-needed-to-bring-wa-s-political-system-up-to-scratch-20190220-p50z5n.html">rural malapportionment</a> (where there are relatively fewer voters per member) and group ticket voting.</p>
<p>Group ticket voting, in which parties direct the preferences of their voters, was abolished in the federal Senate before the 2016 election, but continues to blight elections in both Victoria and WA.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/victorian-upper-house-greatly-distorted-by-group-voting-tickets-federal-labor-still-dominant-in-newspoll-108488">Victorian upper house greatly distorted by group voting tickets; federal Labor still dominant in Newspoll</a>
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<p>There are six WA upper house regions that each return six members, so a quota is one-seventh of the vote, or 14.3%. While Perth has <a href="https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/5GPER?opendocument">79% of the overall</a> WA population, it receives just half of upper house seats.</p>
<p>There is also malapportionment in non-metropolian regions. According to the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa/2021/guide/lc-preview">ABC’s election guide</a>, the south west region has 14% of enrolled voters, the heavily anti-Labor agricultural region has just 6% of voters and the mining and pastoral region 4%. All regions return six members. </p>
<p>Despite the convincing lower house win in 2017, Labor and the Greens combined won 18 of the 36 upper house seats, one short of a majority. Bonham <a href="https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2021/02/wa-2021-how-lopsided-do-you-want-it.html">notes</a> if the Newspoll swings were replicated uniformly in the upper house, Labor would win 19 of the 36 seats in its own right on filled quotas without needing preferences.</p>
<p>But group ticket voting and malapportionment could see Labor and the Greens fall short of an upper house majority again if Labor’s win is more like the uComms poll than Newspoll.</p>
<h2>Federal Newspoll still tied at 50-50</h2>
<p>This week’s <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll">federal Newspoll</a>, conducted February 17-20 from a sample of 1,504, had the two party preferred tied at 50-50, the same as three weeks ago. Primary votes were 42% Coalition (steady), 37% Labor (up one), 10% Greens (steady) and 3% One Nation (steady).</p>
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<img alt="Labor leader Anthony Albanese and Prime Minister Scott Morrison look towards the Speaker's chair in Parliament." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385451/original/file-20210222-23-1j1exia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=15%2C7%2C5035%2C2938&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385451/original/file-20210222-23-1j1exia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385451/original/file-20210222-23-1j1exia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385451/original/file-20210222-23-1j1exia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385451/original/file-20210222-23-1j1exia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385451/original/file-20210222-23-1j1exia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385451/original/file-20210222-23-1j1exia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Newspoll continues to have the Coalition and Labor neck and neck.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
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<p>Of those polled, 64% were satisfied with Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s performance (up one), and 32% were dissatisfied (down one), for a net approval of +32. Labor leader Anthony Albanese dropped five points on net approval to -7. Morrison led Albanese by 61-26 as better prime minister (compared to 57-29 three weeks ago). </p>
<p>During the last week, there has been much media attention on the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/feb/22/third-woman-says-she-was-sexually-assaulted-by-man-accused-of-raping-brittany-higgins">rape allegations</a> made by former Liberal staffer Brittany Higgins against an unnamed colleague. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/brittany-higgins-will-lay-complaint-over-alleged-rape-and-wants-a-role-in-framing-workplace-inquiry-155661">Brittany Higgins will lay complaint over alleged rape – and wants a role in framing workplace inquiry</a>
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<p>However, it appears the general electorate perceives this issue as being unimportant compared to the COVID crisis. Albanese’s ratings may have suffered owing to the perception that Labor has focussed too much and being too negative on an “unimportant” issue.</p>
<p>Despite Morrison’s continued strong approval ratings and the slump for Albanese, the most important measure — voting intentions — is tied. Since the start of the COVID crisis, there has been a continued discrepancy between voting intentions based off Morrison’s ratings and actual voting intentions.</p>
<p>Newspoll is not alone in showing a close race on voting intentions or strong ratings for Morrison. A <a href="http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8648-federal-voting-intention-february-2021-202102181348">Morgan poll</a>, conducted in early to mid February, gave Labor a 50.5-49.5 lead. Last week’s <a href="https://essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Essential-Report-150221.pdf">Essential poll</a> gave Morrison a 65-28 approval rating (net +37).</p>
<h2>Labor bump in Craig Kelly’s seat</h2>
<p>As reported in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/feb/22/craig-kelly-in-trouble-in-hughes-over-support-for-unproven-covid-therapies-poll-finds">The Guardian</a>, a uComms robopoll in controversial Liberal MP Craig Kelly’s seat of Hughes has Kelly leading by 55-45. This is about a 5% swing to Labor from the 2019 election result. </p>
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<img alt="Liberal MP for Hughes Craig Kelly." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385456/original/file-20210222-17-z6e4bb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385456/original/file-20210222-17-z6e4bb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385456/original/file-20210222-17-z6e4bb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385456/original/file-20210222-17-z6e4bb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385456/original/file-20210222-17-z6e4bb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385456/original/file-20210222-17-z6e4bb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385456/original/file-20210222-17-z6e4bb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Liberal MP Craig Kelly has recently been banned by Facebook for promoting alternative, medically unproven COVID-19 treatments on social media.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
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<p>The poll was conducted February 18 from a sample of 683 for the community group Hughes Deserves Better.</p>
<p>While additional questions are often skewed in favour of the position of the group commissioning uComms polls, voting intention questions are always asked first. However, individual seat polls <a href="http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2018/07/why-is-seat-polling-so-inaccurate.html">have been unreliable</a> in Australia.</p>
<h2>Trump acquitted by US Senate</h2>
<p>As I predicted <a href="https://theconversation.com/polls-say-labor-and-coalition-in-a-50-50-tie-trump-set-to-be-acquitted-by-us-senate-154370">three weeks</a> ago, Donald Trump was <a href="https://theconversation.com/trump-evades-conviction-again-as-republicans-opt-for-self-preservation-155283">comfortably acquitted</a> by the United States’ Senate on February 13 on charges of inciting the January 6 riots. </p>
<p>The vote was 57-43 in favour of conviction, but short of the two-thirds majority required. Seven of the 50 Republican senators joined all 50 Democrats in voting to convict.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/155735/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>One analyst describes Labor’s lead in WA as “scarcely possible”, while new focus on sexual assault at Parliament House has not had an impact on the latest federal Newspoll.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.