Biden’s inaugural speech focused mainly on healing domestic rifts and a new kind of politics at home. But he also signalled a return to engagement with the outside world.
Much will depend on Iran’s response to what it sees as Israeli and US provocation, including the November assassination of an Iranian nuclear scientist.
Biden and Trump are like night and day on foreign policy, and American global engagement would change radically under a Biden presidency. But actual Mideast policy might show only cosmetic changes.
With a nuclear deal set to expire, ongoing tensions in the region and an uncertain US presidential election, there may soon be an increase in hostilities in the Gulf region.
Klaus W. Larres, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
In 2016 Trump promised to ‘shake the rust off America’s foreign policy.’ Four years later, it’s clearer what that looks like: a US that sits on the sidelines of world crises and collaborations alike.
Jeffrey Fields, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences
Some of the major events in US-Iran relations highlight the differences between the nations’ views, but others presented real opportunities for reconciliation.
Although neither side apparently wants conflict, tensions remain over the presence of US troops in Iraq and Iran’s decision to walk away from part of the 2015 nuclear deal.
Given the perils of direct confrontation with the US, the most likely recourse for Iran may be to mobilise its proxy militias to attack American assets in Iraq.
Klaus W. Larres, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
President Trump’s Iran policy took a dramatic turn when the US killed Iran’s top military commander in a drone strike. To avoid war, one foreign policy scholar says Trump has to reverse his stance.
Iran’s goal is to sow discord and inflict pain on energy markets, while avoiding crossing a threshold that prompts retaliation from the US. This is a fine line to walk at the best of times.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani staked his political fortunes on bringing Iran out of isolation. Now, it appears he’s losing control to hard-liners in Iran.
Iran has announced it will breach the limits on uranium enrichment agreed under the 2015 nuclear deal, after the US turned its back on the agreement. What does that mean for Iran’s nuclear program?