With the UK heading for an election on July 4, it can feel like the result is pre-ordained. Labour has maintained a decisive poll lead for over a year and nothing Rishi Sunak does appears to shift the…
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Articles on Polling
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Hispanic and Latino voters have tended to vote Democrat in previous US presidential elections.
New polling shows a significant drop in support for January 26 in just two years.
Numbers of Muslim and Jewish voters in the US, are small, compared to the rest of the population, so their voting patterns are unlikely to change the 2024 election result.
A survey released by the Australian National University has reinforced that October’s referendum might have passed if it had been confined to constitutional recognition of Indigenous Australians.
Despite the best of intentions, the prime minister’s determination to take Australians to a referendum on the Voice to Parliament has caused tremendous damage.
Our election analyst lays out the current projections across the nation.
Our research has found the ‘yes’ side has been generating the lion’s share of Voice content in the media and social media over the past six weeks, but is still trailing in the polls.
The unusual candidacy of former President Donald Trump has made election polling especially appealing, more than a year from the election. But consumers beware: Those polls may be wrong.
Exclusive polling shows that those who see Australia as a divided nation are far more likely to vote “no” than those who see it as united.
The pressure to ‘have a good conference’ is immense for a party hoping to win an election. But the anxiety isn’t really evidence-based.
Yes23 is blanketing the nation in hundreds of ads, while Fair Australia is sticking with a singular message and targeting specific states that will ensure a ‘no’ victory.
In the national poll, 42% of respondents said they were a hard ‘no’, compared to 28% who said they were a hard ‘yes’.
The ‘no’ side is successfully engaging young people on TikTok by combining volume (posting multiple TikToks a day) with authenticity, use of personal narratives and humour.
Maintaining impartiality does not require the media to publish nonsense, and certainly does not require them to publish nonsense without drawing attention to the facts or contrary evidence.
The US constitution would not restrict Donald Trump from running for president, even if he is in the middle of a court case, or was convicted.
The polls in late February suggest a 4-5% swing in the overall, two-party vote to Labor. However, Labor needs to pick up ten seats in total to win its own majority.
Comparisons of national polls over an eight-month period show support falling only among Coalition voters. This may not be fatal to the referendum’s chances, but it is serious.
Compared with past midterms, voter turnout among young people jumped in 2022 – but it was still below 30%.
When the rot sets in, past governments have found it hard to win back the public.
Top contributors
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Paul Whiteley is a Friend of The Conversation.Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex
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Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
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Professor Emeritus of Communication, American University School of Communication
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Ashbel Smith Professor, School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences, University of Texas at Dallas
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Professor of Economics and Finance. Director of the Betting Research Unit and the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University
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Honorary Professor, University of Sydney
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Professor of Electoral Geography, University of Sheffield
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Emeritus Professor of Politics and International Relations, Macquarie University
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Senior Research Fellow, National Centre for Social Research, and Professor of Politics, University of Strathclyde
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Emeritus professor, Monash University
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Director, La Trobe Asia, and Professor of International Relations, La Trobe University
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Professor of Political Science and Public Policy, University of Southampton
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2024 Oxford University visiting research fellow RIJS; Professor of Political Communication., La Trobe University
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Assistant Professor of Mathematics -- Statistics, Knox College
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Professor of Research Methodology, Director of National Centre for Research Methods, University of Southampton
