It’s a unique moment in North America: the prime minister of Canada and the president of the United States are being asked to step aside for the betterment of their parties and their countries.
Both the Biden and Trump campaigns will work to mobilize their bases and maximize turnout among their supporters. But those votes alone will probably not be enough to ensure victory.
For at least 50 years, pollsters have been asking Americans whether they think their country is on the right or wrong track. That question may have outlived its usefulness.
In a general election, most people will vote for their party’s candidate. But in a primary, voters rely on media coverage to help them choose among candidates. And that gives the media influence.
While Nikki Haley trails Donald Trump in polling ahead of the South Carolina primary, the estimates don’t capture the Democrats and independents who are also able to vote in the Republican primary.
Professor of Environmental Studies and Fellow in the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado Boulder
Professor of Political Science and Director of the Weidenbaum Center on the Economy, Government, and Public Policy, Arts & Sciences at Washington University in St. Louis