Forget what the betting markets say. Research on past elections points to momentum carrying Joe Biden to a big victory over Donald Trump.
Academic rigour, journalistic flair
Articles on Polling
Displaying 61 - 80 of 172 articles
Presidential pollsters in the US have had some embarrassing failures. Here’s a catalog of those miscalls, from the scholar who literally wrote the book on them.
There was a time when well-known journalists resented preelection polls and didn’t mind saying so. One even said he felt “secret glee and relief when the polls go wrong.” Why did they feel this way?
The polls are predicting a comfortable win for Joe Biden over Donald Trump. But if this election sees the same polling errors as in 2016, Trump’s chances of re-election are higher than we think.
Donald Trump’s ‘rally round the flag’ effect was fleeting, and is unlikely to re-emerge.
Donald Trump’s job approval ratings may be holding, but consumer confidence matters for his re-election prospects.
Nearly three-quarters of fans say they won’t attend games until a vaccine has been developed.
Researchers and public health officials still don’t know how widespread nor how deadly the coronavirus really is. Random testing is a way to quickly and easily learn this important information.
Respondents wanted to look after older generations more than they wanted to focus on post-crisis growth.
Polls have become an essential component of the news coverage of presidential campaigns. That may affect who voters decide to back on an election day.
In a survey, Trump supporters showed the lowest faith in the Supreme Court, the federal government, the media and other pillars of society.
When candidates beat pollsters’ expectations, that can mean more positive media coverage.
In recent years, voters have shifted their views on issues based upon the positions of politicians – even when that shift clashes with their ideology.
The true number of people who do not favor either of the two major political parties in the US has actually remained stable in recent years.
Since President Donald Trump took office, Iranians have held a more unfavorable view of the US.
The very first scientific horse race poll, which took place 85 years ago, was shrouded in secrecy and may have changed history – even though it was faulty.
Ever wondered why there are always so many people in the undecided column in an election poll?
Tactical voting and shifting party allegiances mean the final week could change everything.
A look at the challenges of producing and consuming election polls.
The annual Scanlon Foundation survey found nearly half those aged 18-24 viewed climate change as the biggest problem facing Australia, compared to 12% of those aged 35-44 and 8% of those aged over 75.
Top contributors
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Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex
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Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
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Professor Emeritus of Communication, American University School of Communication
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Ashbel Smith Professor, School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences, University of Texas at Dallas
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Professor of Economics and Finance. Director of the Betting Research Unit and the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University
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Honorary Professor, University of Sydney
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Professor of Electoral Geography, University of Sheffield
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Emeritus Professor of Politics and International Relations, Macquarie University
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Professor of Politics, University of Strathclyde and Senior Research Fellow, National Centre for Social Research, National Centre for Social Research
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Emeritus professor, Monash University
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Director, La Trobe Asia, and Professor of International Relations, La Trobe University
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Professor of Political Science and Public Policy, University of Southampton
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2024 Oxford University visiting research fellow RIJS; Professor of Political Communication., La Trobe University
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Assistant Professor of Mathematics -- Statistics, Knox College
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Professor of Research Methodology, Director of National Centre for Research Methods, University of Southampton
