Looking back at the Reserve Bank’s performance in setting interest rates over the past generation, we’d grade it an A for earlier years – but a fail for the years just before the pandemic. Here’s why.
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Critics ought to acknowledge that on average over time Australia’s Reserve Bank has met its inflation target, but it is worthwhile examining the way it is run.
The extraordinary increase in house prices and debt means mortgage rates of 7% would be as painful to borrowers today as rates of 17% were decades ago.
If financial markets are to be believed, you’ll be paying $1,000 a month more on a $500,000 mortgage by the end of next year. But I don’t think interest rates will go that high – here’s why.
For the past 30 years or so, the RBA has targeted an inflation rate of 2-3%. But the rationale for a rate that low was always weak, and has since broken down.
The independent review of the Reserve Bank should be headed by someone from outside the country say 12 leading economists in an open letter to the treasurer.
The share of the population in work has hit an all-time high as the share of the workforce underemployed has hit a 14-year low. The fresh low in unemployment will bring higher interest rates, and perhaps higher wages.
Some earners will take home less after a tax switch legislated years ago and now supported by both sides of parliament.
Some foreign officials promoting central bank digital currencies want to be able to track and limit transactions in real time.
Governor Philip Lowe says it is “not unreasonable” to expect the cash rate to climb to 2.5%. That’s an extra $600 to service a $500,000 mortgage.
Why raise rates now, for the first time in more than a decade? If the Reserve Bank isn’t careful, too many more rate hikes like this might help bring on a recession.
The best way to manage the economy is though an array of tools. Interest rates are just one.
The government used to set interest rates but it doesn’t anymore. If UAP really did try to deliver on an election promise to cap interest rates at 3% for five years, what would the consequences be?
Inflation is well outside the Reserve Bank’s target band and higher than it has been for two decades.
Of the news on prices, wages, interest rates and unemployment, only the unemployment update looks set to be positive for the Coalition.
Enormous price rises beyond Australia’s control are cutting our standard of living. Cutting it further by rising rates won’t help.
Do you have what it takes to be Australia’s number two central banker and heir apparent to the governor? Here are the questions you’ll need to prepare to answer.
All eyes now are on the choice of Philip Lowe’s successor – and the possibility that the next RBA governor will, for the first time, be a woman.
Unemployment is far lower than predicted and isn’t setting off the kind of inflation seen in the United States. There’s no telling how much lower it can go.
The Reserve Bank governor is optimistic about 2022 in part because COVID has loosened the government’s purse strings.
Top contributors
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Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
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Professor of Economics, UNSW Sydney
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Lecturer in Economics, Monash University
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Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra
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Senior Lecturer, Canberra School of Politics, Economics and Society, University of Canberra
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Senior Lecturer, Research School of Economics, and Research Associate, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Australian National University
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Professor of Economics and National Senior Teaching Fellow, Griffith University
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Adjunct Professor, Swinburne University of Technology
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Emeritus Professor of Finance, The University of Melbourne
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Industry Professor, University of Technology Sydney
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Visiting Fellow, Macquarie University Applied Finance Centre, Macquarie University
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Professor, School of Economics, The University of Queensland
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Program Director, Trade and Investment, United States Studies Centre, University of Sydney
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Dean of Business School, University of Southern Queensland
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Vice-Chancellor’s Fellow, University of Tasmania
