People tend to dislike uncertainty and risk – two things that are hard to avoid completely during a pandemic. That’s part of why it can feel especially draining to make even small decisions these days.
One in 1,000 years style descriptions apply to probabilities that don’t change. The likelihood of severe floods is increasing.
A statistics professor used his expertise in calculating probabilities to come up with a 98 winning percentage for Tim Hortons popular Roll up the Rim contest.
(Photo Illustration/The Conversation)
Tim Hortons changed Roll up the Rim to include a digital element. A statistician correctly predicted that playing on the last day of the contest would dramatically increase the odds of winning.
Don’t forget to wash your hands.
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Policymakers need to figure out ways to sustain the behaviors that are helping flatten the curve as cities begin to end their lockdowns.
By adding a ‘digital roll’ to its iconic game, Tim Hortons’ Roll up the Rim contest now has some statistical similarities to slot machines.
(Photo Illustration/The Conversation)
The Tim Hortons coffee chain has made some changes to its iconic Roll up the Rim contest, including the addition of “digital rolls.” A statistician explains how this changes the odds of winning.
People are bad at weighing risk, which is why so many Americans don’t get flu shots.
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People have to make countless decisions on a daily basis that involve some degree of risk, from boarding a plane to crossing the street. The trouble is most of us don’t weigh risk well.
Behavioural economics is turning traditional notions of risk on their head.
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People aren’t the perfectly rational, number-crunching risk-takers that traditional theory suggests. Research shows a whole variety of factors feed into risk-taking.