While the Turnbull government's ratings have improved, the focus on its tax policies and the Barnaby Joyce story may be holding back its vote.
The poll was commissioned by the Australia Institute, a progressive think tank.
While Labor is likely to win all four of the upcoming byelections in seats it holds, Rebekha Sharkie faces a tougher fight in the South Australian seat of Mayo.
Today's High Court decision against Katy Gallagher has clarified how to interpret the constitution on this matter. But the problem of dual citizenship can only be properly fixed by a referendum.
Malcolm Turnbull has told Rebekha Sharkie, the Nick Xenophon Team's sole member in the House of Representatives, that her eligibility may have to be determined by the High Court.
After a slim victory, how the Coalition works with the crossbench MPs will prove important to the success and stability of the Turnbull government.
The Nick Xenophon Team is to this election what the Palmer United Party was to the 2013 one. It is potentially the 'next big new thing' in the Senate.