New Zealand’s proportional electoral system makes coalition governments all but inevitable. Ahead of the October 14 election, the jockeying for power is all on the right.
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The Conversation’s poll-watcher breaks down the party support trend since March – which has all been surging one way, despite some variation between pollsters.
The landscape on the right of New Zealand politics is changing. If Christopher Luxon leads National to victory, his first test will be dealing with several potentially difficult coalition partners.
Both major parties are promising to increase payments for families ‘in work’. But the changes will only entrench the problems already faced by beneficiaries and the working poor.
The National Party’s tax package may be a middle-income vote winner, but it avoids the core problem of tax-free wealth. And how much the new system would cost to operate is far from clear.
Both major political parties have promised to introduce financial literacy to New Zealand’s curriculum. But is school really the best place to teach students about money?
Both major parties are promising major road projects this election. Meanwhile, the potential for passenger and freight rail to help meet the country’s climate goals seems stuck at the station.
All the evidence points to paid partner’s leave having many benefits for children and families – but Labour’s promise falls short on time and money.
The National Party wants a blanket ban on cellphones in school. But international research suggests improving student engagement is complex, and such a policy might even be counterproductive.
A vocal minority is calling for sexuality education to be pulled from schools. But my research shows many parents and young people want and need safe places to discuss relationships and sex.
Political polls can make for dramatic headlines. But they are a snapshot of when they were taken, not a predictor of election outcomes. Follow these expert tips to make sense of the stats.
The National Party’s transport policy risks locking the country into a car-dependent, high-carbon future.
Big donors are already pouring millions into New Zealand’s 2023 election. But new proposals could make it harder for large donations to translate into political influence in future.
Despite the claims of landlords and politicians, there is no economic consensus against rent controls. A more nuanced debate would help, given the scale of New Zealand’s housing affordability problem.
The death of the government’s public media project is a significant policy failure. But all might not be lost – at no real extra cost.
The cost of living is important. But there are even bigger problems rumbling beneath the surface of New Zealand politics that the MMP electoral system may be ill-suited to deal with.
Recent political polls in New Zealand and elsewhere have consistently failed to reflect eventual outcomes. Voters and pundits alike should avoid reading them too literally.
An outbreak of ‘Chris-mania’ seems unlikely, but maybe taking personality and heat out of the mix will benefit Labour in election year.
Leaving on her own terms may be Jacinda Ardern’s final triumph, and one more part of a rich, complex political legacy.
Ardern’s resignation will come as a shock to many, given the international reputation she earned over the past five years. But it’s less of a surprise for close watchers of NZ politics.
Principais colaboradores
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Professor of Politics, Massey University
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Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
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Visiting Scholar in Politics, City, University of London
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Senior Lecturer, School of Management, Massey University
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Professor of Law, University of Waikato
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Associate Professor of Media Studies, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington
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Professor of Taxation, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington
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Senior Lecturer in Urban Planning, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau
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Lecturer in Māori Studies, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington
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Adjunct Professor, Faculty of Health and Environmental Sciences, Auckland University of Technology, and Professor of Political Science, Charles Sturt University
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Lecturer in Health Education, University of Canterbury
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Associate Professor in Commercial Law and Taxation, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington
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Honorary Associate Professor, Economic Policy Centre, Auckland Business School, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau
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Professional Learning and Development Facilitator in Literacy Education, Massey University
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Associate Professor in Human Geography, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau
