A task force of polling experts found surveys notably understated support for Donald Trump, both nationally and at the state level. Here’s what may have gone wrong, according to a polling historian.
14% of the UK population often make up a much smaller proportion of people of people polled.
Biden supporters in Philadelphia celebrate when his win – with a much smaller margin than predicted by polls – was projected by news outlets on Nov. 7, 2020.
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Stung by their failure to accurately predict the outcome of the 2020 presidential election, pollsters collectively went off to figure out what went wrong. They have yet to figure out what or why.
With the next federal election possible as soon as August 2021, the need for reform of polling standards in Australia is urgent.
Pollsters predicted a much higher vote for Joe Biden, including in Florida, where workers at the Pinellas County Supervisor of Elections Office in Largo process voters’ ballots on Nov. 3.
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Pollster Bud Roper once said of his field that “a good deal more than half is art and … less than half is science.” After the 2020 polls got a lot wrong, is it time for more candor from pollsters?
Biden, here at an Oct. 9 event in Nevada, won Latinos – but not necessarily because his campaign did a great job reaching out to them.
Demetrius Freeman/The Washington Post via Getty Images
Polls predicted a ‘blue wave’ that didn’t materialize.
Voters wait to cast their ballots Tuesday at Johnston Elementary School in the Wilkinsburg neighborhood of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
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Punters are more cautious than the polls, suggesting this election might be closer than the media is reporting.
Supporters on election night 2016 at a Hillary Clinton party, when it became clear poll-based forecasts had been off target.
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Polling is an imperfect attempt at providing insight and explanation. But the public’s desire for insight and explanation about elections never ends, so polls endure despite their flaws and failures.
A new poll from The Australia Institute shows 71% of Aussies want the country to be a global leader in climate action. Yet Australia lags behind the rest of the world.
Professor of Economics and Finance. Director of the Betting Research Unit and the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University