The strong US economy has improved Donald Trump’s ratings in the last month.
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In both Australian and overseas elections held in 2017, the left generally performed better than expected.
Historically, wishful thinking has blunted pushback.
If the primary votes in Newspoll were replicated at the South Australian election, SA-BEST would probably win a clear majority of lower house seats.
The easy win for John Alexander in the Bennelong byelection restores the Coalition’s two-seat majority in the House of Representatives.
With 45 seats held by parties other than Labor, Labor has won a three-seat majority in Queensland.
Europeans are, on average, more likely than Americans to say they fear climate change. What explains the gap?
Instead of ignoring his accusers, South Africa’s Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa entertained them, tried to silence them through court, and then revealed a long-past affair of little interest.
The pollsters have had another bad year – and it may be because they were so worried about repeating the mistakes of 2015.
The exit poll published at 10pm suggests the Conservatives could fall short of a parliamentary majority. Is it to be believed?
With just a week until the vote, the polling agency has thrown a cat among the pigeons. Here’s how to understand the poll everyone is talking about.
If the purple vote turns blue…
Some predict Turnbull’s leadership will be in the frame unless the numbers improve; on the other hand, another change would be extremely hard.
Kenya’s next general election is slated for August 8 this year. As the country prepares for the polls, there are fears that political tensions will result in violence. Will history repeat itself?
The Turnbull government is desperately trying to develop a more convincing economic narrative around good economic management, nation-building and fairness.
Concerns over filter bubbles and fake news are often based on anecdotal evidence. There is relatively little systematic research on the topic; a new survey finds widespread fears are unwarranted.
They were way off in 2015 and for the forthcoming election in June it’s worth knowing why.
The Democratic Republic of Congo desperately needs a peaceful election but with the UN threatening to scale back its DRC mission, the likelihood of a successful poll is being threatened
Data since 1950s show Americans have always been wary of refugees. A public opinion expert explains current attitudes toward Syrian refugees and what it means for building consensus on policy.
It’s human nature to notice or search out information that supports what you already believe and discount or avoid data to the contrary. The problem comes in when you don’t recognize this bias is in play.
Principais colaboradores
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Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
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Professor of Economics and Finance. Director of the Betting Research Unit and the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University
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Professor of Politics, University of Strathclyde and Senior Research Fellow, National Centre for Social Research, National Centre for Social Research
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Research Professor at the Center for Political Studies, University of Michigan
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Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex
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Professor of Political Science, LaGrange College
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Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Advancing Journalism, The University of Melbourne
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PhD Candidate, The University of Western Australia
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Adjunct Research Fellow; Journalist, University of Notre Dame Australia
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Senior Lecturer, School of Political and Social Inquiry, Monash University
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Professor of Geography, University of Bristol
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Senior Project Manager, Murdoch University
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Professor of Sociology, University of California, Irvine
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Associate Professor in American Politics and Foreign Policy, US Studies Centre, University of Sydney
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Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra
