Can political prediction models pick the election winner better than the polls, the weather or Washington’s football team?
L’expertise universitaire, l’exigence journalistique
Articles sur opinion polls
Affichage de 21 à 40 de 48 articles
You could compare election opinion polls to penalty shoot-outs at a World Cup final: there’s huge pressure to get it right and we remember the big misses most of all.
Policymaking is no longer based solely on what a party stands for. Now, it also matters how a decision is going to play in the opinion polls – and that’s a problem for our political system.
We all think men are at it way more than they are. But estimates of how much nooky young women are getting are basically ludicrous.
Research has shown that UKIP polling is driven by media coverage rather than the reverse.
We are often presented with surveys that claim to show how we all think on a certain subject. But how many people do you need to ask for that finding to have have any convincing meaning?
Former South African President Jacob Zuma’s bad behaviour damaged his image and the ANC’s.
New research has shown how easily online polls can be manipulated.
Australians will be asked to complete a voluntary, non-binding postal vote on marriage reform. Wouldn’t it be easier - and cheaper - to do a sample survey instead?
As soon as broadcasters began to focus on policy the gap between the two parties began to close.
The media is obsessed with who is winning, at the expense of serious policy debate.
Your guide to when to pay attention to them and when to beware.
Concerns over filter bubbles and fake news are often based on anecdotal evidence. There is relatively little systematic research on the topic; a new survey finds widespread fears are unwarranted.
Neither Galaxy Research nor the Institute of Public Affairs think-tank discussed the most interesting data they garnered from polling on free speech and reform to Section 18C.
Most Americans care about the environment, but they didn’t vote that way this year. Two political scientists urge the movement to build better connections with blue-collar workers and immigrants.
Many pollsters are now eating humble pie.
Polls got it badly wrong in the last general election. Here’s another way of gauging public opinion.
As the opinion polls remained tight between the two major parties, there were costly gaffes this week from both sides.
Mark Textor, the Liberal pollster, has raged against the modern addiction to polls, in an article this week that shows he can indeed walk both sides of the street, as insider and observer.
Finally, Clive Palmer has formally put a full stop to his personal political career, announcing on Monday he won’t be running for the Senate. Palmer United Party (PUP) will still field Senate candidates…
Les contributeurs les plus fréquents
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Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra
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Professor of Statistics, Queensland University of Technology
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Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex
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Professor of Politics, University of Strathclyde and Senior Research Fellow, National Centre for Social Research, National Centre for Social Research
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Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
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Professor, Future Fellow and Head of Statistics at UNSW, and a Deputy Director of the Australian Centre of Excellence in Mathematical and Statistical Frontiers (ACEMS), UNSW Sydney
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Adjunct Research Fellow; Journalist, University of Notre Dame Australia
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Professor of Political Science and Public Policy, University of Southampton
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Senior Lecturer of Australian Politics, Murdoch University
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Professor of Public Policy and Director of the Policy Institute, King's College London
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Adam Corner est un·e ami·e de La Conversation
Honorary Research Fellow in Psychology, Affiliate of the centre for Climate Change & Social Transformations (CAST), Cardiff University
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Professor and Program Head, Justice Health Research Program, UNSW Sydney
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Senior Lecturer in Politics, University of Manchester
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Research Associate, University of Groningen
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Senior Lecturer in Political Science, University of Canberra
