An analysis by CSIRO’s strategic and economic advisory arm suggests spending on research and development can earn annual yields of 10%, even if there are delays or cost overruns.
The UK’s Tigger-ish chancellor.
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If wages just grow at the rate of the last 12 months, rather than at the higher growth in the budget forecasts, income tax collections will be A$7 billion less for 2019-20.
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Most economists argued against Brexit, predicting dire consequences if the UK voted to leave the EU. Here’s why bets are still on to see if they were right.
Looking behind the headline numbers.
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Unpredictability is omnipresent in life, from dealing playing cards, through contracting an illness or getting promoted, to the rise or fall of equity markets. For those attempting to make the calls on…
Is the falling carbon price as dangerous as everyone is saying?
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Discussion of the federal budget has featured much doom-mongering. This is exemplified by forecasts of a A$6-8 billion black hole in 2015-16, when the carbon tax switches to an emissions trading scheme…
Despite the notorious unreliability of forward estimates, the government has included projections for a 10-year period in this year’s federal budget.
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When assessing some of the assumptions underpinning Wayne Swan’s 2013 federal budget, two things spring to mind: the Henry Tax Review and the notorious inaccuracy of forward estimates. History shows it…
What sort of economic legacy did the long-serving Howard-Costello prime minister-treasurer double act really leave?
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The good times are over. That’s the message both parties are sending out ahead of the budget and September’s election. Shadow treasurer Joe Hockey promises major cuts to spending and welfare if the coalition…
If there’s one thing we can say with certainty, it’s that economic forecasting is far from an exact science.
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One certainty about economic forecasts is that, almost certainly, they will prove to be incorrect. The best forecasters can hope for is not to make systematic errors – to get it right on average – and…
System 1 thinkers on the left, System 2 thinker on the right?
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It’s an old joke, but hard to resist around Budget time. That is, that economic forecasting was invented to make astrology look respectable. Over the past few days we’ve heard a lot about how notoriously…