Peter Martin, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
The Conversation’s 2020 economic survey points to a dismal year, with no progress on many of the key measures that matter for Australians and an increase in the unemployment rate.
Having better access to mental health support could be one reason for lower self-harm rates among Danish teens.
Pressmaster/ Shutterstock
Peter Martin, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
Households are buying no more than they were a year ago, and the wage share of national income is the lowest since 1964.
Markets know what has happened each time the yield curve has turned negative. The idea of a negative curve without a a recession would take some getting used to.
Shutterstock
The latest data is not promising – central banks must react accordingly.
As uncertain as 2019-20 is, The Conversation’s team of 20 leading economists are in broad agreement that the outlook isn’t good. Scott Morrison and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg will also have to deal with the unexpected.
Wes Mountain/The Conversation
Peter Martin, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
The Conversation’s distinguished panel predicts unusually weak growth, dismal spending, no improvement in either unemployment or wage growth, and an increased chance of recession.
Reserve Bank Governor Phi;lip Lowe will keep cutting rates until he has forced inflation up and unemployment down.
Dan Himbrechts/AAP
Peter Martin, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
The Reserve Bank cut interest rates on Tuesday because we weren’t spending or pushing up prices at the rate it wanted. On Wednesday we might find things are worse than it thought.
Treasurer Josh Frydenberg and Prime Minister Scott Morrison at a campaign rally. They’ll have to shore up a weakening economy.
Mick Tsikas/AAP
Both Gaetjens and Frydenberg might reflect, incidentally, that this, the first budget for each of them, is likely to be their last - if the opinion polls are right.
It’s one thing to have money, it’s another to be able to spend it to best effect.
Shutterstock
It’s been 27 years since our last recession. Conditions are ripe for a populist revolt when the next one arrives.
Things will continue to look good enough for long enough to help the government fight the election. Beyond that, the Conversation Economic Panel is worried.
Wes Mountain/The Conversation
Peter Martin, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
The Conversation has assembled a forecasting team of 19 academic economists from 12 universities across six states. Together, they assign a 25% probability to a recession within two years.